How to Evaluate TIA & Data Availability Services | Analyst Round Table

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personally I'm not excited about a world where there's one million chains because I do crypto data and a world indexing a million chains is like borderline impossible we are so far away from solving that problem and that is not a problem I want to have to deal with so I I part of me just doesn't want cesi to work but the reality is they need a ton more data to be created to be economically viable what's up everyone welcome back to another episode of zerx research if you're listening to this podcast there's a good chance that like Dan and I you believe the future of Finance is on the blockchain and we're excited that London is becoming a global hub for blockchain Innovation and institutional adoption of digital assets that's why we're pumped

to host the 2024 digital asset Summit in London this March don't miss your chance to get ahead of the curve later in this episode we'll tell you how you can save 20% off on your ticket what's up everyone welcome back to another episode of ZX research we have an awesome analyst episode lined up for you today on uh December 4th is the date of recording and we're joined by Matt and zerox pibbles to jam on the latest Market happenings this week uh before we dive into it I do want to shout out blockworks research be sure to go to blockworks research.com and use code 0x research10 for 10% off an annual subscription uh pibbles you want to kick us off with a little hot sea cool Throne yeah I've got a big old cool throne for the pudgy Penguins Community uh they made a new all-time high in eth

this past weekend like topping out around 10 eth and it's just like a pH Roi through a bar market for an nft they had a couple of really positive things going on like for one Black Friday Cyber Monday the pudgy Penguins toys I actually have one of these I I got them when they first came out they're uh they're really hot item right now so that's sick um I think the the IP is like really attractive and I think they genuinely have a chance at being like the most successful nft project in crypto uh we also saw that they had a some sort of like ZK sync collaboration they hosted an event together last week

and they're speculation that pudgy penguins are going to build the pudgy verse on a ZK sync hyper chain so that'll be super interesting if like they actually successfully Shi this huge like basically like a Club Penguin experience and migrated to ZK sync and I think ZK sync needs them a lot more than Pudgies need ZK sync so that's a pretty interesting Dynamic to track I think that like Pudgies overall like it's it should be pretty easy for them to flip Bap yacht club which is still sitting at like a 30 e floor so in my mind if like the market continues to do hot then like Pudgies are a buy up until 30th and no less ZK sink needs pudgy Penguins less

than Pudu Peng more than Z Pudu Penguins need ZK sync is is a bold statement there I like it though uh what do they is there any speculation around like what exactly uh this this hyper Jane would be used for I know it's just the uh the thing to do these days to launch your own L2 or your own chain in in any capacity but I'm curious if they like laid out any or rumored any potential uses for this so it's pretty unclear from the speculation that I'm trying to find but I know like for instance with the the pudgy penguin figures that they're shipping out now that comes with a Q code and you get this like soulbound pudgy Penguin on the polygon Network because they have some like browser

based game on polygon right now I'm not sure exactly how it settles to polygon or how it's connected but um from what I can gather it looks like they'll just be migrating and doing their final pudgy verse on CK sync somehow so super excited to see how that goes and you also have to think like there's going to be a pudgy token at some point there has to be so maybe that'll be on ZK sync I bought my pudgy toy right when it came out and like set up that pudgy World account or whatever on polygon I haven't looked at it in a few months to be honest but I was pretty impressed when I first checked out the game it was kind of like a Sims type thing or Sims type deal but I'm not going to lie like I went to the marketplace and you can like

dress your pudgy up like you know go trade whatever kind like when you when you put this code into pudgy world you get items with your with your penguin and you know like I wanted the coolest gear so I got my you know it was only like5 or $10 but I went bought you know whatever crazy helmet and crazy crazy merch for my pudgy immediately so I got to say like I got roped into it even on polygon and I don't do anything on polygon so um overall like I've been super impressed with the team and their ability to ship and uh I am also very sad that I don't have my forever pudgy like when it comes to looking at board Apes I have no no interest in buying a board ape I don't think it it doesn't resonate with me but the pudgy penguins

are these like happy nfts that that I kind of want so it's it's interesting how that that that Dynamic has changed between like bored or sad or mad or whatever but uh you know something happy and nice is is kind of cool I was just gonna say I went on uh that same interface that you were just talking about Matt and it was like very Webkins Vibes like they also have some mini gamess like a crossy roads ripoff which I actually found myself playing for like an hour so yeah I don't know I'm excited to see what what comes out of it I do think the ZK sync partnership was announced like a month or two ago actually and so maybe the the Rumblings you're hearing pibbles is uh something like actually concrete that's coming to Market soon so I guess we'll see yeah when you pull this price chart it is

pretty impressive to see this run up all throughout a bar Market but Matt I'm curious did you uh did you want your Forever pudgy before or after this runup dude I have all these all these like you know toy nft things but none of them are the real pudgy penguins and I was I was been shopping for a while like I think I'm not going to lie like I started shopping for one around 4 or five eth on the way up and then you know suddenly I'm priced out and I don't can't for some reason I can't get myself to go spend uh I think they're sitting at like some 22 Grand or something on a on an nft but uh I guess you know we'll see that might change in in the future we'll see if I got any nice air drops I know

you guys are uh also Big Mad Lads guys how are those things going on Sal mad Lads have been ripping I'm pretty sure they're sitting pretty close to 200 Soul right now they had like a little pullback you know they got to 200 and then pulled back down to like 150 or 160 and now they're back on their way up it's pretty crazy to see how many big influential people on CT changing their profile pictures to madlads and just the buzz all around it I think one thing that's really cool is like I've been using backpack wallet a ton I completely switched from Phantom to backpack so you know their wallet in my head is almost one out at least you know for my personal user experience and then also the exchange which I haven't had a chance to use because they geoblock the us but you know if that exchange and the

wallet both manage to see success and they somehow tie madlads and the staking mechanism and you know I'm acre some kind of points with my stake madlad with no no real uh knowledge about what that actually will ever do but if one day that's tied to the value of the wallet and the and you know the exchange I could see these being something that stick around for the long term and and it's clearly like the blue chip nft of salana so pretty excited to to have my hands on one of those yeah I scooped A lassie I I love it honestly I think the Mad Lads art is super cool I also was looking at that backpack exchange data on Dune and it looks like they have uh $18 million of of customer deposits yet they only have a few assets listed so that's pretty impressive and honestly

estimate to the power of having an nft community and being able to like sh your own product to them honestly kind of cool I think the wallet to nft Dynamic is something interesting that hasn't been explored super well but it kind of like if you're you know one thing a wallet does well or like a metam mask or a backpack is it onboards these new users into crypto and one way that they should be able to capture value pretty well is through nfds and it's something that hasn't really been explored so much but I'm excited to see that you know backpack and mad Lads are at least starting to look at how there's a dynamic there that could create value for a wallet and you know vice versa for an NFD yeah agreed one more thing on that too I think some of the price action has

to do with hati hati swap or whatever they have like a a shitload of mad Lads uh that they've gotten like a pseudo swap ripoff in a pool so like there's like $400,000 of liquidity to sell into or something like that last time I checked so I that's probably definitely like providing a floor to the the price of the nfts themselves yeah looks like there's about a nice 3x over the last three weeks there for the Mad Lads folks um definitely don't think anyone's complaining about that how do the uh Marketplace Dynamics look on salana I know you know obviously with over in ethereum land the the launch of blur has really cannibalized open SC and is honestly been purely pure dominates ever since launch but I'm curious what does that really look like uh over on salana I believe last time I checked tenzer had

about a 65% market share with magic Eden at about 30% and then Haiti swap at about 5% so I think it's pretty much equivalent to the the blur and then openc and then the rest uh for ethereum one interesting thing is over in salana world like you'd have to imagine that magic Eden and tensor and probably Hades I'm not sure about if Hades already does but these these projects will probably launch tokens and don't yet like you know I think everyone a lot of people speculate an openc token but that's not something that I realistically like would put a high probability on whereas all three of the exchanges on salana I would put a high probability release a token at sometime in 2024 it's also like madlads and Pudgy penguins are the two we mentioned but

there's tons of nfts pumping it's kind of crazy to see this narrative coming back um I guess it shouldn't be surprising because so many people thought it was dead and whenever anyone thinks something's dead it tends to be you know the Catalyst for it becoming relevant again but I think sappy seals and can Pai P pandas are I'm sure I butchered that but you know there there's all these nft projects that are starting to gain some traction especially ones that you know if they said they were going to build a game have built a game or have done things that they said they were going to do throughout the bare Market so I'm definitely starting to put some risk back onto the nft space for sure yeah and I'd say the the biggest winner out of all this is still going to be blur like even like tenser on salana that

didn't come along until after blur launched like they saw the features that blur integrated and they're like we need to do that somewhere else so they did that on Salada so like blur will just benefit so much from nft volume on ethereum as that picks up and I think like it really is like the first sort of like index coin that you can attribute to nfts actually that leads to that leads me with an interesting question Dan you just had pulled up that chart of the pudgy Penguins price I'm not sure if you're able to switch that to like US dollar denominated but just based on like I guess sentiment on crypto Twitter I would guess that mad Lads were up like 5x more than Pudgies just based on my

timeline and I follow primarily eth people actually so I'm I'm curious like dollar terms what are we looking at here putting a lot of pressure on me for the live chart updates but especially in a in a sector where I don't personally spend a ton of time I have no idea I can change this to USD what source was that uh this was nft price floor.com I'm sure that's like a really quick way to expose me for checking nft prices too I'm pretty sure that if you look at a six or seven month time frame like you know since mad Lads had come out for a few days that they were sitting around $750 now they're around like 15 or 16 Grand floor I think pudgy Penguins were around $4 or $5,000

like around that same time ago and are now sitting around 22 Yeah that that's all Park about right Matt in the beginning of 2023 Pudgies were about six and a half and they fell down to what looks like about a low of three 3.25 um and then really since July it's when looks like a bottom formed and it's been running since I hate that did I know that off the top of my head that that is hor a horrible piece of knowledge to have that that's proof you have been looking for your Forever penguin I can uh if that wraps it up for nfts then I think I can move us over to the next Hot Seat cool drone which I uh I've got Celestia in I'll save Celestia for later I uh I got

the app chain thesis in the hot seat uh this week we saw some pretty interesting governance updates or more so just Forum discussions and I'll apologize for my voice here this is my flu game so I'm out here battling but uh in the Mars protocol governance for there's a post that sort of suggested the idea of deprecating their app chain because they're a a cosmos based uh app chain built on the SDK um and they're going to deprecate the app chain in favor of making Neutron the new home base for the protocol um so Neutron is this km wasm based general purpose chain uh and it has kind of been getting a bit of tra traction as to sort of this def hub for the broader Cosmos

ecosystem and I think part of the reason why the the protocol is kind of debating this is really around the idea of maybe the the app chain kind of became more of this baggage that they've had to carry with them rather than this like great idea because right now all the app chain itself is used for uh is governance coordination all the lending and borrowing that occurs through Mars happens on what they like call outposts right so there's an outpost on Umi or there's Outpost on Neutron and there's an outpost on osmosis and both of there both of those separate changes where the actual lending activity occurs uh and So within this governance form they actually had a a quick snippet that I want to read out because I found this very very interesting as sort of their

justification here so they said given the accelerating adoption of these Alternatives we believe the cosmos has a short window of opportunity to react and not be overshadowed by ethereum in a paradigm which had had many steps of the initial advantage we believe more consolidation collaboration and Alignment is necessary within the cosmos to compete I found that super super interesting uh because they really trying to like push forward this idea of a shared Vision which has kind of been one of those points that people have said like hey the cosmos doesn't have that shared Vision or that one single token to Rally around to kind of help create a broader ecosystem and kind of get some of those Network effects although I would kind of push back and say I think there is a shared

Vision there uh but there's there's definitely room to be discussed around like yeah there probably is no broader token uh with a lot of the the issues that uh the cosmos Hub itself has had to deal with so one the other interesting things here in this proposal was the neutron Grant te was actually offering 3 million usdc to come build on Mars in return for 60 million Mars token locked linearly for six years uh currently the Mars token is trading at around 10 cents um so an interesting little trade there and Larry O X is an independent engineer actually had a really good thread he's a been a contributor to the Mars protocol uh if not launch basically since launch and he had some really really good insights here and I think so of it's worth discussing so he said the

rationale for the app chain was based on two key assumptions one there would be more six there'd be many successful Cosmos defi chains and Mars protocol be deployed on many of them in this case a coordination Hub would be helpful and two the protocol would make enough Revenue that would be Su that it would be sustainable for validators to operate and he notes that both assumptions have turned out wrong and that the Mars app chain has indeed become more bag more of like baggage and drag than an actual asset so right now Mars is emitting about N9 million tokens each year in security budget and there's only about three million Mars tokens uh and liquidity on osmosis so the inflation is is very material it is very huge U and it

clearly is having an impact here and so the reason why I put apch as a whole in the hot State here is because what they're doing is is basically unwinding their app chain in favor of a smart contract based protocol and this isn't the first time in the last few months where we've seen some chatter around this right if you remember stride proposed joining the cosmos Hub which creates a huge uproar and that's ultimately kind of stalled out and it's going nowhere II and osmosis kind of have this merger rumor as well so it kind of seems like nobody wants their own chain anymore um and it's probably a little bit AR with the whole of the app chain thesis in the uh in the hot seat here but um I just think it's it's a bit of and nothing's really changed right

like it still makes more sense to start as a a smart smart contract based protocol rapidly iterate fine product Market fit uh and then migrate to you know maybe you need some more customization at this point a lot dydx and you know now they're they dydx is really the the counterargument here right because they're starting to see some success uh and the Chain's about a month old now if even that and we're already seeing over 100 million in Daily volume as of today uh so you know I I think they're it's probably a bit extreme with the the app chain thesis in the hot seat here but at the end of the day it is kind of interesting to see some of that uh backwardation or unwinding of of some of these app chains and it kind of makes sense right it's there's this kind of gets back to the

the long-standing debate of is issuance a costs but it was it was interesting to note that the pernicious in uh effects of inflation were one of the cited reasons as to why uh this this kind of makes sense to to take this next step for Mars I'll push back against the Dead app chain thesis I think the app chain thesis is strong like I think there's still a lot of incentive for a project that has you know gotten to the point in it in its Evolution where it's seen product Market fit and kind of how you described to actually go launch an app chain but one thing that could definitely be held in that hot seat is Cosmos and its tokens um Adam is just you know the worst performer in the top 100 on the year I think if not the worst top five 100% um you know even DX

recently post those I'm not sure if you guys spoke about the big unlocks last week but you know there's a large unlock where the supply basically doubled and uh the price action since then has been lackluster say the least as well and you know overall the token price action has not been great with the exception of axlr doing pretty well last week uh after the announcement that Wormhole raised 2.5 billion at a $2.5 billion do valuation um so Axel got the whole the whole bridging industry got a whole bit of a a repricing there but overall like it does seem that Cosmos tokens are having a ton of trouble finding you know Finding interests from from those that are speculating on the future of crypto especially when you compare it to you know the likes of salano which has been been just absolutely pumping for the

last few months um I could see it changing but you know personally I wouldn't position myself with that assumption so I do agree you know app chain thesis is a strong word but Cosmos tokens I would put in the hot seat no question I'm a little bit worried I guess on like everyone's saying yeah okay go launch it as a smart contract like based app and then migrate to your own app chain once you have product Market fit I think dydx is just the most interesting test of all time because I I'm trying to think through like possible ramifications of this and like obviously dydx isn't using their own token to incentivize validation uh of the network so I guess I feel like as a proof of stake chain with your security tied to the Token if cash flows crater

then your token price crators as well alongside that then doesn't the security of your Network go down like I don't know I'm just not sold on the fact that yeah the app chain thesis is great once you like reach par Market fit and have cash flows is basically what I'm getting at all right zerox research listeners we're calling on you to join us for the premier institutional crypto conference in Europe's crypto Capital London this March 2024 you're going to get to hear exclusive insights from industry Trailblazers on things like leveraging D5 protocols for institutional yield tokenizing real world assets with instant settlement navigating the evolving Global regulatory lands landcape integrating digital assets into Banking and payments or crafting institutional investment mandates with

digital assets as the key Focus we'll also be featuring some big keynote speakers including Melvin Deng the CEO at qcp Capital Mark yuso the CEO and managing partner of Morgan Creek capital and stonnie kuchin the founder and CEO of a companies this is not an event you're going to want to miss seats are limited so be sure to register today by hitting the link in the description and using promo code 0x20 to save 20% on tickets see you in London the land of tasty pastries and be sure to hit up Dan and I for a beer here's an interesting question is dyx not like is the dyx token not being used for its security budget or because it's used in incentives and that's what drives volume which is what drives fees which is what's used for the security budget is it kind of like without

without the dydx token being emitted would there be uh you know usdc being driven to these validators well I guess that's basically a question of is it a good product right and I think perss as a whole are something that's seen a lot of growth and acceleration in Defi and rightfully so I I think they're they're a great product and they do a great job of it bringing what the user is looking for which you know For Better or For Worse is leverage on speculation uh so I I I do think that per are the so what I'm saying I guess is the sector itself I think is one of the few that uh you would classify as having product Market fit the question is does idx and you know I think they've

been the long leader in volume and uh the question ultimately is when you turn off those incentives that's your true organic usage and like that is the measure of your product Market fit if you're paying people to use your protocol you can't include that in your you know your product Market fit but um also prove the fact that you're paying people doesn't necessarily mean you don't have that organic user base and with the highquality product Focus team that dydx is and will continue to be it's it's pretty hard to bet against them in my opinion and their order books are the right way to go they're building out on a different Tex stack with the sole reason of decentralizing that order book and making it kind of exist forever um so that's a long-winded answer to say

yeah I I do think that that is something that would apply to DX but very much so does not apply to the next latest and greatest per deex that's a fork of somebody else and is just doing the exact same thing and paying people to cope and trade there because no when they turn off the incentives and they turn off the paying people to come you know use their platform that that cohort of people is just going to go to the next protocol that is being that they can get paid to use that's that is not sticky usership speaking of the pers clubs it's interesting to see you know kind of across the board of repricing there as well since dydx V4 launch so we've seen you know really good price action from rbn which will soon be the Avo token um

for those that you know maybe don't know ribbon recently launched AO it's a layer to built with the op stack uh that's also used for trading per and as well as options so it's a derivatives exchange but prominantly its volume is in perss they've been really good about listing tokens that are further out on the risk curve maybe uh you know things that other exchanges aren't listing so they had pith before pith released I for you know they have a new one recently that was also something that has yet to do token generation Ito I believe yeah blast too yeah blast so that they're really good about you know listing and putting out on assets that you know would potentially drive more users there the token's been absolutely ripping um I predominantly thought that that was attributed to just order books in

general but I think like rbn is another one to watch especially after dydx made this major uh you know took this big risk in moving to a to a cosmos chain and then also you know vertex of course like I know we've spoken about it over and over again but the vrtx tokens had a $500 million fdv last I looked like that's a significant valuation in the crypto market today um so definitely interesting to see the order book narrative continue across as amm's kind of trail behind yeah I'm glad you brought up the pre-launch Futures thing I think that's a really really unique thing that they're doing uh and it's cool that they even offer it before token omics are even released right because you it's hard to say like oh here's the price if you don't know the supply distribution

but they' have this really interesting mechanism where they basically just assign it a uh distribution that way they can create a price off of it and then they do like basically a a stock split effectively when they do find out the actual tokenomics and the token launches and then so you'll get either more or less shares so when the price changes your your overall position doesn't change in size which is really cool to be honest um and interestingly right now blast is trading at a about a $3.6 billion do fdv for for those who are interested and I also think that they uh their latest uh deposit stats was like what seven or 800 million yeah I saw 700 million earlier today that's just absolutely crazy

locking your stuff up with this price action across the board for three months I I can't believe that honestly if you lock Stables there I think that might have ended up being like the most ultimate midwit move of the start of this cycle you don't know it's at least three months and what are the odds they actually put out in L2 on time that's like that's no small task um you lock stables for like what four or five% of t-bill yield Plus the most pvpd token airdrop that we've probably seen ever debatably ever if not ever then at least within the last year so that's that's that hurts if you lock to eth well like at least you're getting eth price action yeah it's crazy roping this back

into the the app chain thesis though as you were mentioning on your hot seat day and I I will like give dydx a lot of credit to like they're only giving 30% rebates right now and you're still seeing over six figs of daily volume and then on top of that because they went to this alternative architecture they can actually give out those rebates on a block-by-block basis they can share usdc with idx stakers on a block byblock basis they can you know combat me in ways that you wouldn't be able to do on a general purpose chain they can have lower latency so therefore process more volume every single day if they actually reach scale and all of this is due to the app chain architecture so I see like the bull case for app chain so I'll push back a little bit on you Dan but I do

agree like I don't know where my mind's at yet when it comes to paying for security uh and and what the optimal token design is I got to say that collaborative block building which is the me mitigation technique that uh DX is using that you're talked about that you talked about is something that is super freaking cool and being overlooked by pretty much everyone so like DX obviously chose to move to V4 to decentralize their order book so that it would no longer be stored on uh AWS but rather in validator memory but like another benefit that they you know hadn't announced until more recently was that they were going to and they might not even found it until more recently but using ABCI Plus+ which is like a teex stack uniquely enabled by the cosmos they're actually able to you know mitigate Mev to an extent that is not

achievable in any other ecosystem so I got to say that's like mostly being overlooked or at least on my timeline and in my circle is mostly being overlooked and that's so freaking cool like that is a huge Innovation that you know most people aren't even talking about yeah yeah there's no doubt about that and I think DX is like the the textbook definition of why you would want an app chain right like they every every goal they had was enabled by that app chain which is a really really cool thing to see I'm definitely excited about what they're doing the question is for the broader app chain thesis how many more apps does that make sense for if you look at some of the largest apps today like udis swap for example I know that they're their app chain gets tossed around every now and then but Unis swap

is as dominant as it is because it is on eth mainnet where all the liquidity is and I have yet to see say layout for an app chain where it makes more sense than just being where your liquidity is so I I don't know it's like that one doesn't make sense you keep going down the list and like I just start to run out of ideas to be honest with you maybe gaming gaming is an interesting one Sam and I are actually just like throwing ideas back and forth the other day I was like if a game came to you and was like what I need to build uh my own chain for my my game like where would I build it was kind of like a a very tough question to answer it's not just like a clear like oh you would clearly go build game on

this framework which I thought was kind of interesting yeah gaming seems to be like the hottest competitive space among L1 grants programs foundations whatever even l2s but mostly l1s like Avalanche has that huge ecosystem fund if I remember correctly they funded it with like multiple hundreds of millions of dollars um you know like obviously we have uh parallel and trap null and we have all these projects alium who have been gaining major major price action recently so clearly like you know gaming something's on on everyone's mind mind and there you're completely right like there is no this is where you should go build your game so I think that that's definitely one thing that I'm keeping a close eye on for sure yeah especially with uh lattice and Redstone I'm really

excited to watch how that one plays out I recently started playing this game 77 bit it was like used to be called Ragnarok and then they Mis mismanaged their treasury like all the eth they'd raised in their nft Ico or mint whatever um they like they got caught trading and lost it all like when the market turned to the downside so they this huge PR Scandal you know the nft dumped from I don't I'm making this up but call it from one eth to like 0. one eth and then recently they launched the game and they've kind of been climbing recently and I definitely like kind of I don't know random super liquid moonshot play but it's pretty fun pretty fun I feel like I remember that that exact thing like didn't the founder write like a really long like note on his iPhone or

something and post it on Twitter and like basically said yeah we we day traded the treasury and lost it all yeah exactly yeah that is actually hilarious well props to them for continuing continuing to build after that but I can take it uh for My Hot Seat actually cool thrun this week I've got Bitcoin I mean this one's pretty easy everything that's even kind of related to bitcoin is is up honestly bitcoin's up like 137% over the last uh 12 months so beginning of December last year if you look at gbtc people who were brave enough to buy that are up 282 per so pretty much doubled bitcoin's performance because of that steep discount to uh to the net asset value like under management and uh it's still trading at a 9% discount uh with the

spot ETF decision from the SEC expected between January 5th and 10th so there's any more brav souls there there's there's that play as well because I think that's supposed to get converted mining stocks are obviously up ridiculously Rune is up an ungodly amount and they have a shitload of Bitcoin liquidity available and streaming swap so people are shoveling quite a bit of liquidity through there you've got ory the the token for some ordinal Marketplace that thing's been in price Discovery all weekend uh STX up huge um coinbase don't even get us started obviously we love to talk coinbase um but yeah I mean everyone's making money on anything related to bitcoin Michael sailor El Salvador they're in the green and normes aren't even talking about crypto yet so if

that's not bullish I don't know what is but I don't know if you guys have seen any other cool Bitcoin plays you'd be willing to share I think one interesting aspect of the Bitcoin price AC action recently is how much of it could or seems to be to me trafi coming into the market this is perfectly shown in you know the CME Futures basis which is currently trading at about 20% for both Bitcoin and eth as open interest on both those assets has doubled in like a little over a month um more than doubled so like what that shows me is that there's this institutional or trfi desire appetite to get you know spot to get exposure to the crypto assets but that is not willing to Long spot they're not willing to deal with with self- custody they think that

there's probably exchange risk and exchange custody post FTX so you know they want to do what they're used to and and go long through CM futures um and this is speculation you know there could be other examples of why this could happen but that basis is absolutely absurd like willing to pay 20% annualize to have a long position through CME Futures is just you know that is a substantial number so clearly you know insiders are are speculating that this ETF is coming um at least that's my perspective on what this price action has been recently it seems to have recent switched from a you know when will it happen to a this thing is imminently coming uh at least in the common purview so yeah like definitely happy that I have a little bit of Bitcoin exposure and uh we'll be watching those Futures as

well what's the uh the basis on the like the next deepest uh the next most liquid Futures Market if you know like if cm's 20 how much are they overpaying by I guess is my question there yeah not just going to throw you at that assume you know off the top of your head so I'll give you a minute here but Sam you mentioned thorchain and you're right they've been doing some crazy crazy numbers on bitcoin volume they uh there was I think it was last week they were hitting top three top five in total Bitcoin volume including centralized exchanges that is very insane for a decentralized protocol competing with some of the largest players in the in the entire world uh both centralized and decentralized so

Props to them I mean no I don't totally love the whole lending model to be completely honest but what they've been doing is is honestly continue beating the drum of their entire Vision the whole the whole time so Props to them for continuing to build towards that Vision um but it'll be like I don't know it seems like the whole every because of how important price is the ru run price is for the lending protocol it seems like everybody in that ecosystem's vision and attention has now just staring directly at price and like that's probably not the best thing uh so it'll be interesting to see how that one plays out yeah I saw Chad bareford PLL posting about runes price like 18 times over the

last few months and I love that guy he's one of my favorite guests we've had on this pod to be completely honest I think he's hilarious but you don't really want your lead Dev tweeting about price constantly I feel like what's uh bibbles I know you spend a lot of time looking at ordinals and whatnot I'd love to hear if you got the latest and greatest over in the ordinal side of things yeah that's proprietary information that I I'm looking at node monkeys will probably come out this week um I think that's going to be like probably one of the most hyped ordinals collections to ever do it I'm G to try to get a bunch of node monkeys I think they look pretty cool too and then you've got like all these like d gen

like Bitcoin related tokens there's like movie which is supposed to be like a ordinals bridge and then there's like track Trac supposed to be like ordinals tooling and theyve done insane over like the past few weeks and like if or got listed on binance then like people are betting that like track or movie is going to be the next one it's probably gonna be track um but like the the toing is just going to keep getting better it's it's still pretty bad but compared to two months ago it's so much better do you guys did you see this uh there I don't want I feel like I'm going to make this up and totally butcher it but there was a pool that got formed then they're like

basically there's a couple other things they're doing but one of the things they're doing is exclude they won't mind blocks and when they M blocks they won't always exclude orinal transactions because they like deem them to believe that they're spamed you guys know what I'm talking about I do actually that's I believe that was F2 pool um and they they walked it back like they already said all right we'll we'll stop because people were starting to like redirect their hash it's called uh it's it's a new one it's called like ocean let me look it up uh Matt did you find that stat real quick yeah it looks like it's almost double so like you can you can long on darab bit for for a basis that's like you know closer to 10% while cm is over 20% damn that's that's meaningful it's crazy it's

nuts yeah that is nuts and on the ocean front Dan I think that's isn't that Jack dorsy in like backed like uh I guess decentralized mining pool I might be putting myself in a corner here and just making up okay all right I got another question for you pibbles how in the hell do we get our hands on some of these frogs you got to log on to the unisat marketplace I think and uh you set up a unisat wallet or you can set up a leather wallet leather used to be hero hi r o but they like rebranded to leather I don't know why um but they're they're basically just like browser extensions and you'll fund out with some Bitcoin and pay some stupid fees and

then pray that your like transaction comes through in like 20 or 30 minutes um but the the exchange experience is a million times better right now than it was when like the frogs first came out and I I know a couple people who still have a ton of frogs they're holding on to those well I I gotta clear the air I gotta clear the air I wasn't making this up they uh it is it is Jack dorsy thing mining protocol or mining ocean mining sorry um and they I guess they have a bit of a weird process with how they constitute miners uh or how they pay out fees I guess that like basically takes up block space instead of and whatever this more the more popular method is uh which basically lowers the amount of

fees that you can create for your your block obviously uh so that's a little bit of an interesting Quirk and then they also just choose to censor particular transactions some of which are ordinals uh so I guess that's just more of the core OG Bitcoin belief where ordinals are spam which is funny because I don't view ordinals as spam on bitcoin uh because there's no other alternative to use to kind of create these uh nft like items if you will uh whereas I do very much so view inscriptions on Smart contracts based chains as spam we've seen it on arbitrum polygon uh Avalanche I just saw a tweet about something on ZK sync as well it's ruining all my charts and I'm I'm tired

of it it is interesting that some people view inscriptions as spam given it's like right now the only hope Bitcoin really has at solving its security budget concerns of of you know one day being not profitable to mine so it's like it's crazy the bitcoiners really hate it but I mean I guess at the end of the day it is Spam it's just Spam that's going to save the network so I guess I see both sides going back to my my my stretch of a connection between praying and air drops uh today I'm holding I'm holding in my cool thr air drops so like recently you know throughout 2023 we saw a couple big air drops so that was in the form of like art carbon op um blur and Prime but over the last few weeks we've already seen more air like you

know pretty much as many air drops as we saw in that period of time so we've seen Celestia vertex pith um and you know we have more announced so we have jeto and Jupiter on Solana announced and it seems that 2024 might be the year for aird drops so you know go use go use networks so I got to say like the reason that I was connecting praying to this was because recently I've been you know I'm not going to say sibling but let's just say I've been experimenting the Wormhole ecosystem and hopes of getting an airdrop so you know I'm bridging all over the place and using all the different apps built on top of Wormhole and oh my gosh I forgot with that pit feeling in the bottom of my stomach of I lost my funds trying to get money over to some new network I hadn't had it in

so long and I've had it like five times in the last week always end end up getting the funds but the ux in crypto just has a lot to be uh lot to be desired anyways I guess for the air drops that you know I'm paying attention to outside of goo and Jupiter which have already been announced uh we got in the salon World margin fi um probably a few more in the bridging world we have warm and layer zero and you know none of this is guaranteed but we could speculate that maybe maybe these will have tokens in the future we have blast CK SNS starnet as l2s coming up um and you know probably more than I'm forgetting moral the story is you know as a smaller investor someone who doesn't have a ton of money airdrop hunting honestly and airdrop Hunters deserve to be in the

cool Throne they've been killing it recently and it doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime in the near future yeah there there's no out about that one I think the pith one probably Rings true for most people because they did a good job with the distribution there that you really just got tokens for using certain protocols that you didn't really probably realize you were even farming the the airdrop for right like I think it was quento users got uh rewarded pretty heavily because quento uses pith and it was like basically their per decks is that pith is plugged into kind of that's how they distributed their token which is kind of interesting uh and the question that that kind of spurs in my mind is well what does that mean for these ecosystems and I think the the fifth one is very interesting for salana

in particular because again that was like some of the requirement was on different chains think Aptos CVM chains obviously ethereum and it's l2s and uh they are rewarding those ecosystems users with a salon based token to the tune of a couple thousand dollars and yes that's not a huge huge number but if you go get3 to $5,000 for free uh I promise you you're probably going to go throw some of that around in the chain that you're now on which is Sal Matt to your point bridging is scary and painful and that's kind of why there's a lot of friction is like once you're in an ecosystem you don't really you're not thrilled about leaving right so uh I'm I'm pretty excited for what this means for the salana ecosystem and again

everything in salana is is quite smaller scale total market cap is much smaller the midcap assets in Sal are much smaller uh and so when you get a four three to again two to 5,000 airdrop a couple times over you know you have users that have between 10 and $20,000 of fresh Capital um so I'm I'm kind of thinking that there's going to be that'll play a huge role in the Catalyst of the salon ecosystem uh whereas of course that's true for Ethan it's l2s it's just the scales are much larger right arbitrum is at A1 billion dollar fdv optimism is at about a six we just talked about how blast is already trading pre Futures uh at about a four and a half billion like you just don't see those huge huge numbers over in for the most part yeah speaking of aird

drops too uh J just announced like their allocation like an hour ago and it's it looks pretty damn generous I think uh pibbles and I might end up eating our words from last week once that thing actually gets a price but I don't know how to Value it it's like there's no Meb there's no priority Fe ldo plus flash spots is the answer you're probably right so I'm definitely mid curving this but uh yeah I guess we'll see where it goes it also lends it like you know it could be a catalyst for salana and its ecosystem as well today tbll is just you know absolutely wrecked Sam you were mentioning it in our kind of analyst chat just how Salon tvl has still been down only even in soulle terms over the last month or two um and it's like you know as these as these applications go

presumably go and give free money to their users as they you know become more robust ecosystems likely we'll see Salon TBL and activity continue to go up and up so if GTO goes and air drops you know2 billion doar to its users and is some use for it and its ecosystem that could be considering tvl all of a sudden you know we might have four times as much tvl for salana just in the form of jto obviously that's like a stretch but uh just to get make the point clear like I do think that these will be a huge Catalyst for salonus activity that's funny I I was like damn I I didn't see Judo did another tweet announcement on can I airdrop and of course when I pull up the thread by typing it in manually the first six

tweets are all blocked because I've muted the word air drop because the Twitter spam is so painfully bad right now second thought for sure yeah this is interesting though looks like about 80% of the airdrop allocation is actually going to be for jeto soul holders about 15 for the jto salana uh client validators and then 5% for me Searchers who actually participating in the muv side of things which is pretty interesting um I'm literally just now looking at the thread so I don't have like any meaningful opinions on it but again that's another another slug for the salana ecosystem and we talked about this last week Spencer uh pibbles you you mentioned that one of the things was like the this could just destined to be

a high FTV low float token and that would that was like I've really been thinking chewing on that thinking about it it's like well how do you avoid creating that situation it's like well you either make team and investors liquid sooner which is probably the opposite of what we're trying to do uh or you issue more tokens to the community sooner uh which isn't just like the greatest thing in the world right just to slice off another chunk of your uh your your token value essentially your Equity of your business for right at right at the onset of your your protocol so I was thinking about like different ways that that could work and honestly uh then I went back and read Jupiter's uh their kind of tokenomics plan and it's really really interesting they're basically doing a token sale

from the Dow to token holders um that will kind of like give the ability to alleviate some of that high low float High fdv problem right because when that becomes an issue is honestly exactly how Celestia is trading when you get like a sub 10% or sub 15% of your token issued on onset and then everybody wants to get in and the token price runs 4X from Air the airdrop value that's essentially what has exactly happened with Celestia and now you have something that's trading at a 10 billion doll FTV that has a long way to go before that that number actually makes sense and I'm not hating on the trade one bit here but this is textbook setting up for max pay for any new buyer because as they start

issuing new tokens and releasing those out it starts to become the question of is this token worth the FTV you get closer and closer to that number and and when you start issuing tokens the market cap and FTV need to end up beating in the middle is usually what will happen um and so I find it very very interesting kind of how that's playing all playing out uh but to kind of bring this back to jeto I I I really or I really like what Jupiter's doing it kind of like creates this release valve and it's probably bearish short-term price action but it does avoid you know getting in that situation where you just have a down only token uh after the initial runup if jeto trades at a billion fdv any user who' used it and this big F any

user who' used it before November 25th had 100 jto points will have like approximate this doesn't even make make sense but yeah I mean right there's 115 million tokens in the circulating Supply at launch so a billion am I could be being crazy or would that be about $10 per token don't make me do math live the story it looks it looks like it's going to be a very very large airdrop PR I don't know what you're looking at yeah it's been 100 I mean if there is if it's a billion FTV then there be5 million market cap at launch but I don't know I haven't looked enough into the distribution okay sorry but no matter what like it looks like it'll be about a $5,000 air

drop at a billion FTV for users who who have used it at all so that's a significant sum of money I saw some dude on Twitter who was bragging about the fact that they deposited in like the super early days across like 25 or 30 wallets and just like did like I don't know like a 100 bucks in each wallet and now they're getting like 100 G's which is pretty wild Meanwhile we're out here doing fundamental research on you know like how you drve value to tokens and how dydx now that it's a real yield token it's you know ah we could have just put a $100 into jetos Soul yeah no it looks like every user is getting at least 4,000 tokens or 4,900 tokens yeah I just wasn't sure what the

total Supply was but if it's a if it's at a billion if it's a billion total tokens and it's a billion fdv so it's dollar per token whatever like that's five grand yeah that's pretty similar numbers to um like what a lot of people got with pith obviously not me I'm in the US but there were I think it was like 4950 or 4900 to the te it's like what they got but then like the pth valuation is way higher so should be a good air drop yeah everybody's using the the chain link to pith value comp there and like that's why we kind of trolling with the Lio plus flash Bots but at the same time like that flash Bots doesn't have a

value valuation that's Market traded because there's no token and Lio does so I think what Li's about two two and a half Bill obviously the numbers are much much smaller for jeto but that is kind of the uh the proxy to ethereum yeah I think that's a fair thing to do just like pibble said you know you got the chain link comp it's it makes everyone look at the moon and the stars when they when they do valuations and whether they're thinking about selling holding or buying but Dane you had a really good uh threat the other day this is a little bit off topic so maybe shiting shifting away from hot sea cool throne but um Celestia you put out a thread on like basically how much you know business per se you would need to do in order to like actually justify the

valuation could you share some uh some more thoughts on that explain it yeah for sure for sure so I like jokingly tweeted you know Celestia's token was running up this is probably was like a 3X from from airdrop and I was like has anyone done the the math to see how how many rollups Celestia needs to be posting data on it for it to be a just economically viable whatever that meant it wasn't it was supposed to be an open it was a ship post was supposed to be an open-ended question um and then everyone was like no you don't want to look at those numbers bad number bad number I was like okay so everybody's just trading this thing H and it was pretty interesting because then I started digging and I was like all right you know maybe I'll just go ahead and give a

some napkin math here and see what it looks like so Celestia generates fees when rollups post a data to it so for example when arbitrum settles down to ethereum it executes a few transactions that is literally posting a a set of data that can be measured in megabytes and that is B basically the the amount you pay is based that that incre increases the size of the transaction and therefore changes the amount of data you need and so therefore that's how the fees are determined posing on eth is obviously much more expensive than posting on uh Celestia and so the question really was for me like what is the gap like yes it's obviously more expensive but how what does that actually look like in

practice and so Celestia charges about a floor a floor place of 10 cents per megabyte and arbitrum posts about 300 megabits per day so if and if you fast word that out for like basically a whole year that's somewhere around you know 36,000 megabits of data which therefore is about $3600 in fees so if you start doing the math there you're like okay well one arbitrum isn't going to be what's open to the whole world and it's also worth noting that lower fees to post data would probably generate more demand to create more data right and for example of that would be salana the pure number of transactions is larger on salana than other chains that are more expensive to use because you get things like Bots coming in there and um just

kind of executing arbitrages for much smaller value or you get things like uh limit order books that just create more transactions in general right thing when when you have lower fees there are more transactions to be created so taking arbitrum and saying okay well arbitrum posted this much data so this is you know the perfect map over to Celestia makes no sense I'm not doing this for the perfect map it's just the the only directional signal we have is R's posting data on ethereum today and saying okay well where does that go from here so really what you would need for this to make sense for Celestia is the total capacity that it can hit that of dat that it can handle in over a day to be

hit and then Robb's then bidding to pay more to to post their transaction to celesia so the total amount of capacity that data has to accept or that Celestia has is about 5,760 um excuse me about 576,000 megabits per day uh and so roughly that is about 1,920 times more data than is being posted to ethereum today as a whole so that includes our that includes op main that includes Bas ZK sync polygon ZK AVM every role posting data to ethereum today uh would need to be about 1,920 more times data right and that is a a very large number I have no insights

into whether or not that will happen or not I don't I just don't know the likelihood of that occurring because there's a lot of unknowns here right like a good proxy will be how much data is Eclipse creating and posting to Celestia because the fees will be much lower the execu environment is the svm so we can handle much more uh a much larger number of transactions and that'll give us a little bit of a better proxy of saying okay instead of saying how many arbitrum that post data to ethereum do we need for Celestia to to hit this data capacity we can say all right well how many more eclipses does celestia need to exist um because the numbers just don't look great to me today but that doesn't mean that I'm like okay I'm permanently bearish on

this I just personally am not excited about a world where there's one million chains because I do crypto data and a world indexing a million chains is like borderline impossible we are so far away from solving that problem and that is not a problem I want to have to deal with so I I part of me just doesn't want slushi to work but the reality is they need a ton more data to be created to be economically viable so I think one thing worth pointing out is what is it 5% of daily gas on ethereum is used to rollup transactions so you don't have all that noise there right is do I have that right in your like are you not accounting for that Dan in your

calculation there can you say that again yeah like so like today 5% of ethereum gas is used to settle like roll of transactions is that included or like like do you account for that in the back of napkin math that you came up with uh I'm not sure I really understand the way you're getting what your question is yeah I guess I'm just saying like so it's going to be more more expensive to post data to ethereum because you're competing with other normal transacting users in order to have your data posted the chain so you're I'm assuming you're not accounting for that fact right right right okay I get yeah so the the capacity is 5,000 or 576,000 megabits per day and like arbitrum is posting all I think it's the total uh let me pull this before I just make this up uh the

totality of ethereum rups today are creating about 300 megabits per data throughout 2023 right so if you right now we're posting 300 per day and the capacity is 576,000 so there is way much way more data needs to exist that's being posted before you get that supply and demand uh actually playing out because right now you're just hitting the Baseline fee every time because there's just basically no other transactions in your block is like one way to think about it okay I see I see yeah I don't know I don't I don't know what celes is going after maybe they're just going super cheap to like establish the network effects and then they have like pricing power down the line well that's that's

one thing you would think right but then igen l or igen Da comes online right the da solution powered by igen IG layer and they actually have twice the amount of throughput cap capabilities that uh Celestia has and that's P so Celestia created data availability sampling which is a great way for light nodes uh to very quickly and cheaply and efficiently and securely ensure that what's uh like the state is correct and basic basically I mean I'm way oversimplifying here but I da said what you're doing with the light nodes we're going to do at the consens for our consensus nodes um and it basically dramatically increased uh what they are able to do in terms of throughput so where yeah it's about two times more throughput so theoretically

you could they could price even lower than celesia could and so then you're like all right well if you don't have the best tech like do you really still have pricing power it's it's going to be really like you're going to see it true rais to zero like there's there already so many zeros in front of the the decimal already but you're going to see even more come on come through when when I Da comes out well here's a question so clearly ethereum is not the best tech for you know posting data availability even post dank sharding traditional dank sharding like likely it still won't be the best tech for posting data availability so our all you know based on this fundamental evaluation of Celestia are all data availability layers pretty much doomed to fail if we don't live in a world with a million

rollups and that probably includes ethereum Igan da and celesia that's a great question and I have no answer for it really other than what's driving eth price valuation right now is that monetary premium whatever that word means to you because it's not even the fees for ethereum yeah they're high but like it's not like oh p uh ethereum has a great PE ratio like that's not even true so it it really is that monetary premium thing which means that it's a gas token on multiple chains and it's used in as a base pair for dexes and it's used as the uh pricing function for nft markets and things like that right it's like used throughout the economy

and that's what they're trying to do with Tia for that's what celesia is trying to do right like they want it to be they're creating that validating Bridge so they can use it as the gas token for the rups that build on top of Celestia um the question is like how do you bro strap that ethereum got a lot a lot of help for being first and it's really really hard to recreate that and it'll be it'll be interesting to watch them try like I'm definitely r for them I I I love the team I think they're doing something really really interesting I'm all here for it I just thought it was interesting that the math is actually that far away that you need to 1, 1920x the current amount of data which again that could be very possible I just I have I don't know yeah that's

wild I thought that thread was like or it wasn't even a thread it was actually one of the super long tweets now that you can now that you can have this but nonetheless I thought that was super interesting and it just puts into perspective so maybe what they are going for is that monetary premium but I'm sure we won't know for for for quite some time but I mean hey the price chart makes it look like that monetary premium strategy is working so I'm not fading the trade on this one because that that one tweet everyone's like attacking me for fading the trade I'm like I even said it was goingon to be a good trade leave me alone that's too funny all right we got wesy in slack saying BTC run ah and he wasn't able to make this so now I have fomo not being able to check the price

chart so what do you guys say we call it uh until next week if Westy doesn't doesn't say saying slack after listening to this episode that he heard that I'm going to be pretty disappointed but we see I just saw the price behind Dan move I'm pretty sure it went to like 425 or something tell me if I'm wrong I rotate between Bitcoin e and soul so right now we're we're at we're at eth at 2234 that clock is that was my uh that was my last bull market purchase I'm embarrassed to say how much it costs because it's like it's pretty raw technically I mean the back of it is literally just like a motherboard um and yeah it was 400 bucks but at the time it was just a fraction of an

eath oh that's great all right pibbles Matt thanks for coming on guys we appreciate you taking an hour of the day see you next week or the one after that hey everyone thanks so much for tuning into today's episode we hope you really enjoyed it wanted to take one more moment to remind you guys about our upcoming 2024 digital asset Summit in London this March seats are limited so be sure to hit the link in the description and use promo code 0x20 to save 20% off on your ticket we'll see you in London be sure to hit us up if you plan on [Music] attending