Will this be the last four-year Bitcoin cycle?

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show where we deliver crypto updates smoother than your attempt at parallel parking I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Charles Edwards founder of capral Investments and renowned Bitcoin and macro expert in today's episode we are going to get Charles take on where we are right now in the Bitcoin cycle how Charles sees the rest of this cycle playing out we're going to look at some metrics and some charts to give some indicators as to where we are headed in both the short term and the long term and then we're going to finish and get Charles take on how he sees future Cycles playing out does he think this

could be the last cycle of this kind in this pattern for Bitcoin or does he think that's going to continue into the future we're going to hear that and much more from Charles today before we jump in everybody we are hiring a few roles right now one in particular is our new head Partnerships that we're looking for at milk road if you are anyone you know is in the crypto game and wants to talk to everybody in the space whether it be Media or influencers or protocols and Builders hit the link in the show notes check our career page and apply for our headed partnership role or the many other roles that we have open right now it's bull market season baby let's go before we jump in we just take a minute to hear from our sponsors meanwhile is

the world's first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the bit Bitcoin economy they do everything in BTC you pay in BTC they pay claims to your family in BTC you take out policy loans entirely in BTC when you need liquidity protect your family from life's uncertainty and a broken Financial system build intergenerational Bitcoin wealth while the cost of living skyrockets in dollar terms plus get all the tax and legal benefits of life insurance now in Bitcoin visit milkroom meanwhile to join the wait list and get early access to the world's first Bitcoin life insurance Charles welcome to the milk Road Show great to be here thanks for having me great to

have you my man uh okay I want to start with a tweet that you put out uh just yesterday as we're recording uh you said that it took 15 years for Bitcoin to get to 100K or close to 100K when it breaks the next 100K will likely happen in weeks why did you put this out there um I I provided a bit of um I did another tweet after that to provide a bit of background but if you look at there's a few reasons but if you look at just gold for example this year gold went up 33% in the summer in 16 weeks it went up about 18 to 20% Which is $3.8

trillion uh in just 16 weeks and that's a really old asset which many people obviously not looking at the same way as Bitcoin so uh for Bitcoin to go from 100K to 200k that's just $2 trillion so about half the amount uh on an asset that trades 247 um it's more fundable it's more divisible uh more accessible to everyone around the world um and so just logically it could easily double I think in a comparable time frame or less so that's one point the the second is where we are in the cycle where we are seasonally and this is kind of like the optimal two to four month period two to three months four month maybe five to

six month period every four years so after each harving every four years you have about 12 to 18 months where you get 90 95% of all the Cycles returns out of every four years so most of it happens in that one year alone then if you look at Q4 and q1 that again is the majority of the returns and then once you have like a strong monthly breakout above all time a prior alltime high so for example last cycle that was a breakout above 20K um you tend to see uh at least three or four really strong positive green candles yeah that's that's the chart I tweeted as well where you just get insane price moves in very short period

of time and that's because of a few reasons you're in price Discovery everyone wanted to sell at the prior alltime High has which is pretty much what we had for that eight months of chop this summer and you see Mass massive price moves in the majority of the cycle gains happening in a very short period of time so I think we'll get at least three or four really strong um monthly candles they could be distributed over uh a few months it could you know it could take six to 12 months for them to all play out but you know there's high probability of the the the most rapid sizable price appreciations happening in a short period of time at present um for the next few months so this is like the really the most exciting time

of of every four years for Bitcoin yeah let's go it's a certainly an exciting time for everybody everybody want it's taking long enough to get here right yeah if you're still here if you're still here you deserve it you deserve it you know sit backe and enjoy the ride and if you're not allocated get allocated now because it's as as you said Charles it's gonna happen fast when it happens it happens real fast yeah Le let's just chat quickly about the 100k number because that's just been such a big number for a long time that has such a large impact in so many ways right yeah what are your thoughts on do you think we're going to break through 100K quickly here do you think it's going to take some time and

once we get past 100K do you see volatility because there will be a bunch of sellers at 100K how do you think about that yeah so 100K is definitely the biggest hurdle we have um but you know probably for the rest of this cycle in terms of price appreci a um if it's for a few reasons so it's that nice round number level 100K six-digit Bitcoin which no one's ever seen before also because uh if you just look at Fibonacci extensions which is often natural resistance levels for Price appreciation from the bottom of the last cycle so over the last four years uh you it the Fibonacci extension takes you to 102k so again roughly around 100K Mark

and then in addition to that I think you've got this whole uh investor base of tradire that's got into the ETFs um this year so many of them obviously have no exposure to bitcoin crypto historically they bought Bitcoin at 40 50 60k uh I think you know that they look at 100K and that's a that you know that would be a you know 80 100% return call it in less than a year which is a phenomenal return for them probably triple what they're getting in all their other assets and in know everyone sees it as a natural resistance they'd be happy to unload there and especially before the end of the year and then see what happens and I think that's what we're kind of been seeing the last couple weeks uh we also have the biggest you know kind of confirming all these

things the biggest cell wall we've ever seen in the auto books for Bitcoin at 100K or you know between the 98k plus or minus few th000 upwards and so a lot of people are kind of looking to take profit here um and I think just yeah once that's cleared out that's when you know everyone who wanted to sell has sold and you have these really sharp rapid vertical price appreciation moves because there's just no more Supply left but until then uh 100K is a big hurdle it could take a few weeks could take a bit longer um the other factor is we have had quite a bit of Leverage starting to build up in this Zone which isn't great it's not it's not too much of a cause concern yet but uh something to be

monitored closely uh so I'm hoping that will kind of smooth out um over the next few weeks and we just continue to grind up and take out that Supply that'd be very positive in terms of how long it takes it's hard to say um for example we could wake up on Monday and Michael sailor might have just raised 1010 billion to buy a Bitcoin right and if that happens I think you know things are going to move quite quickly um on the other hand it could take him a bit longer now that the the the margins and multiples are getting a bit conc so remains to be seen but it's essentially I think a matter of time um the best chance for it to happen is in the next few months if it hasn't happened by February or March I'd be a bit concerned but um I think we'll

definitely be Beyond 100 uh into the new early New Year when we hit 100K do you think we stay above 100K or do you think there's a chance that we chop around 100K for a while yeah so it again depends how we get to that point um I think we're doing a bit that chopping now so clearing out some of the supply slowly but there still a lot there um you know if if we blast through leverage and funding is low and Michael sales just raised 5 billion you know um or if Trump announces that they're going to acquire X Bitcoin for a Bitcoin strategic Reserve all these things will have huge impact and and then you know retail and everyone else starts to front run those activities and in see uh you know that fomo build and would just

blast through so it depends on all the factors and and data at that point I think there could be there could be one or two attempts on 100 again before we actually get through but once we get like a strong daily weekly close you know once we're above say 105k for example with you know with strength without excessive leverage and um data that looks very concerning then I think that that's the kind of confirmation where you have a really strong um Trend opportunity from there one thing that you're firm does really great is provide a lot of charts and data around Bitcoin uh and one of the best ones to look at is uh your Bitcoin macro index which pulls together

data from 60 different 60 more than 60 onchain and macro Mar metrics to try to get a single chart that we can all look at to understand the fundamental value of Bitcoin i' I've pulled it up on screen uh for those listening you might want to P switch over to video to take a look at this but I would love you to walk us through this chart and explain where we're at now and what what this says to you yeah so You' summarized it well it's basically feeding in all the macrom metrics and onchain metrics that we think of the highest signal and waiting them ml um model respectively z-scoring it and and the trend of this score is very important so when it's going up and

and positive so green on the chart here um that's shows strength and and growth and onchain and and and Confluence across uh various factors um you know obviously that picture can turn and and it could be a top forming and when that rounds and comes down obviously price could be lower so it's not perfect but it's a it's a great fundamental gauge uh for Bitcoin so as you can see now it's it's getting quite elevated above 1.5 which is usually where you have the best price appreciation um in each cycle so if you just scroll slowly up to the next chart above it's the same just with those colors overlay so you can see every time Bitcoin goes vertical

you you typically have obviously that that that green color so we'd expect that here um and still um you know not not early not super early in that in that process but not um super late yet when we're above two on that level it's starting to get a bit heated but um things can you know they can they can Trend into excess for a while so the main thing to look for is when that turns down so um you know factors that might trigger that a long-term holders unloading it might be other macro data interest rates liquidity Etc changing so um at the moment very strong and and the trend is your friend while it's

there I like that friend I like that friend right now I I'll hang out with that friend for a while and so will the Milkman he'll join us and have a beer uh okay so all all the metrics are looking good you're feeling confident feeling good going into the new year and that yeah okay maybe let's all expect some chop especially around 100K I think one thing we always remind everybody and you can't be reminded enough is this is still a high-risk asset in the way it trades often we haven't yet made that transition to We're Not Gold yet where you know expecting it to drop to NE to never drop again is an unreasonable

thing so I just want to get your take on if you fast forward throughout this this the rest of this of 2025 it wouldn't be a surprise to me if we had some drawbacks not like I'm not talking about the end of this cycle I'm just saying some drawbacks and those could be 20% wouldn't surprise me I'm not sure what you think but that wouldn't surprise me and I think it's important to know that uh to want to get your take on that and then I want to get your take on okay what about the end of this cycle and future Cycles are we going to start are we still going to see the big bare drawback you know down 60 70% or are those days behind us yeah good question

um so normal for each Bulls bull market for Bitcoin when you're in price Discovery like this it's it's normal to have 30% draw Downs uh every few months uh so that should be expected that said if we look at the last 18 month months that's been almost you know almost non-existent and rare the dips have been a lot shallower um I wouldn't Bank on that you know a lot of people were saying in in February this year that oh the volatility is lower it's not going to happen anymore and then we had obviously march to uh October we had multiple 25% plus dips so uh the volatility will be there will come um it's obviously hard to predict when that will be uh but you should be prepared for that so you know we could if if

there's some concern uh you know funding or or leverage continues to rise here and we don't chip away at that cell wall and if Michael Sal is unable to raise capital and as multiples keep compressing uh you know maybe we revisit adk or or um you know potentially bit more or less but you have to be prepared for those that kind of volatility is normal um so yeah expect 30% but but also we might only get 15s um if if it's bit like the last year uh in terms of the the the longer term cycle it's hard to hard to say I I um have said a couple times recently that I think it's the last kind of harving

cycle that matters in terms of um a lot of the harving Cycles driven around the mining inflation growth rate of Bitcoin and it's so low now and it that that's almost insignificant and we're also now a more established asset pretty much merging with with tradire we're basically a tradire asset now um and so there's a few reasons but I just don't think that the harving S is going to have the same level of impact and I think those kind of 80% 90% every four-year dips will get shallower and shallower um so like you said maybe 60 might be reasonable this next time it depends on a few factors like the again the US strategic Reserve so the way it's framed at the moment is

that they're just going to keep the you know acquired Bitcoin that the US has from CRI and other, is exactly yeah so assuming that's the case they don't sell it great but it's probably not going to help the cycle a lot so you know if that changes I know there's some some bills and proposals out there to actively acquire a lot of Bitcoin um remains to be seen if that gets approved you know obviously Trump's got 10,000 other things that are probably more pressing on his mind to think about so no way no way come on we're all the right yeah exactly so I I think people forget that that you know we're we're probably well down the list what do you think let me

just let me just ask you the honest question what do you think the probability of a strategic Reserve or let's just simplify that and say America buying more Bitcoin like yeah that's what do you think the probability of that in 2025 is like actively buying maybe I'm just it's basically a guess here 30% um you know that that view again will change quickly if Trump starts talking about it or Elon Musk or anyone yeah um so yeah it's important to separate like you said actively buying versus just having the Strategic Reserve because I think people see strategic Reserve they're going to buy but it's at the moment they're just saying they're going to keep what they have so um yeah if there if there's an announcement of

any serious acquisition next year even if it's not that much right it doesn't even have to be as much as uh Michael sailor has got um yeah you're going to see massive amount of capital flows from all Global Systems banking um and and countries just because they have to to to remain relevant it basically it could be it to me the way I look at it right now is it's it could it would be it could be the biggest Catalyst of the year if it happened in 2025 but yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah even if it didn't happen though I still feel very very I almost am I'm removing betting it doesn't happen hey it happens on top but

everything's looking great and then if it does happen that's when I feel like our EXA don't even know exactly I'm on the same page that's why I say you know 30% which again is basically a guess but I'm assuming it doesn't happen um if it does happen I think you can forget the 80% or even 60% cycle draw Downs I think we'll probably have a a multi-year bull run instead of a onee it'll probably be two three um if it doesn't happen um you know I think 2025 should be a really great year for Bitcoin and crypto generally um and um you know we just have to see how the data unfolds about how how much that downside risk could be uh but generally

speaking Yeah I think the dips get smaller with time um as the inflation rate and the supply held by those entities is is reduced with time and just the ETFs in general right like they've just been sucking Bitcoin out of the system like ferociously and that I think that's basically the reason we haven't had any sizable dips this cycle uh compared to the PRI years so that's that's just trfi onboarding which is really still in the early stages I think why hasn't the price reacted to the ETFs as much as I think a lot of us would have assumed it did it did react in the beginning don't get me wrong it reacted January through March we all saw

that right but it the ETF continued to do incredibly well throughout the year and doesn't feel like price has reacted as much yeah it was a pretty terrible summer um in terms of the the sideways chop and volatility and there's a few things I think you know the price reacted amazingly in January February with the launch um and we had this huge rally to 70k and then like fomo sets in right like it's it's that typical behavior when everyone's excited and the positions get bigger and they take more risk and The Leverage piles on um we saw funding rates at you know five six seven

times Baseline that sort of thing for you know a couple weeks consistently and that is when the risk gets really high so that kind of just caused the whole Trend to pause then we also had the just Q2 Q3 seasonality so you tend to see in all risk assets uh even over the last century and shorter windows with uh equities that Q2 to Q3 is the worst performing period often equities go down they didn't this time but they often do and for Bitcoin that is also a really poor performing period for that reason um it's the old saying of you know fund managers and investors going on holidays to Europe or what have you uh it's also tax uh season so you know

cashing in for that so there's a few elements there which kind of pause or or cap the demand in that zone and then we also had the really this massive Supply unloading from Mount G which has been sitting in the background for 10 years so they were selling you know forget the number like tons of Bitcoin you know and and also the German government then started selling so there was just a lot of fud and sell side pressure in the market which just pinned Bitcoin down um if we didn't have that I think we would probably be where we are now a couple months earlier like I would I expected it would have happened July August and I I did think that'd be some some chop but

it was much more than I anticipated in hindsight and it's because of all those factors and but in the background you had the ETF just continually consuming consuming Bitcoin we cleared through all that supply and we you know we didn't dip below 48k um and so at some point when you cleared through that Supply you got that consistent demand you got Michael sailor as well just buying infinite Bitcoin there's when when you get to that threshold there's just no more Supply it just just goes vertical and that's what we had with the certainty following the US election when Trump was announced and we also oh that's the other Factor we cleared out that four years of anti- Bitcoin anti- crypto uh government admin um which you

know the the last admin debanked most of our industry uh over the last couple years so there's been huge hurdles which have just been unlocked um and we went vertical I think rightly so um so it's it's not surprising it's just more surprising how long it took and it's again because all those factors just kept coming out and we have now have a lot of regulatory and administrative certainty U going forward which is really positive um Pro crypto as well and and we kind of know um you know broadly the policies and the approach that Trump will take in terms of it's probably going to be more some level of more inflation there's going to be um you know more spending

on us businesses uh support for crypto all that sort of thing which is just all very positive for Bitcoin as an asset class yeah completely uh you mentioned Mount gaw and the German government which were two major Supply s sell-offs and what we're seeing what when I project I mean we're not going to have another amount gaws unless I mean there's always fingers crossed seems we're done with that it seems unlikely yeah seems unlikely um and it feels like governments are which is crazy to think how short time is feels like governments

are Mak making the shift already and governments are now acquiring and buying Bitcoin and set and obviously as you said the US leads and most governments will follow the US and if they go first then then that will really open the flood gates yeah but it feels like I just I want to be clear that those are not those are not events that we expect to I mean we never expect events like that to happen but they're but they don't seem likely to happen in the next year yeah I'm definitely a lot more openminded now than now we know what's happening in the US um that but like I said my my base case is probably not going to happen in terms of acquisition

but it could and if it does it's a game Cher and even if it's next year or not it's clearly going to happen eventually right like we're we're already now at that we've embedded tradire with ETFs um and we're now having this conversation at presidential level Kennedy and Trump so two of the three candidates for for presidency we're both actively talking about Bitcoin strategic reserves so you know whether it's not this year or next uh it's coming um and it's the this the game theory that everyone in bitcoin's been talking about for the last 10 years that as soon as any sizable government starts doing this everyone has to follow because their currency is just going to

get destroyed otherwise um so it's going to happen um and yeah the future's very bright for Bitcoin the the other Factor here is uh is is all the corporate and institutional money as well and I don't know about you but I I'm feeling pretty strongly that on the you know my 2025 crypto bingo card is going to be a major Fortune 100 Corporation announcing Bitcoin that they put Bitcoin on their balance sheet and the impact of you know Google or Microsoft or an apple uh I mean we already know that Google holds a

lot of assets because they run validators so they do hold some assets not Bitcoin but ethereum and now they're not it's they're not putting on their balance she it's small right uh but they have exposure and their their Finance team understands it and the board understands it and all these things are set up do do you do you think about the likelihood of of that corporate in institutional side and what might happen there in the next year yeah that that's also a huge um unlock that's going to I think occur uh let's hope it's Microsoft in what is it 10 11 days that's oh yeah that's right they they're voting on it um soon I think the board is suggesting not to but at the same time s's been

actively talking with them in the last week so who knows I suspect base case again probably won't happen just because it's it's a probability thing right like if you have 10 boards talking about it maybe two or three might do it in the next you know few months so but it's it's it's going to happen and then once you have one of these um Magnificent Seven firms doing it um you know and they've got they they're literally allocating billions because of the size of their cash on their balance sheet then everyone has has to start copying it because it's just you know look at micr has been the best performing equity in the S&P 500 it's not even in the S&P 500 uh massively up from Nidia it's it's just a process that is going to just keep unfold in and and

it's it's a domino effect when you have these sizable players start doing it the smaller ones and everyone has to kind of do something to to remain relevant talk talk to me about your your your basee case and your bull case for Bitcoin in this cycle what what do you think we could see in terms of price what's your range yeah I think I'd be surprised if we don't get to 140k um and I yeah I think 140k is if really nothing positives happening uh we don't get any company announcements don't get any um

you know all allocations Investments are just below expectations um because like I said once we clear 105 I think we just we just teleport a bit um and there's no reason we shouldn't get to 140 I just don't think there'll be that much Supply in that zone um and then upside yeah it really depends on a lot of these things we're talking about like I said I I can easily see 200k um happening very quickly because Bitcoin once it clears those alltime highs in the past it does multiples very quickly uh most many assets do when they clear an alltime high and it's and the numbers we're talking about are way smaller than what

gold did this year and a much older more boring asset so I just yeah there's we could easily get to 200 um again it will depend on the data as as things unfold I think like I said we need some spend some time where we are now um uh to clear through 100 and on that's done and if things looking healthy then yeah there's definitely tons of potential for the next 12 months let's go let go it also depends on macro though which we haven't talked um let's on macro yeah in ter in terms of like um risk assets liquidity flows generally uh the FED all that sort of stuff uh so you know if the FED

announcers which is highly unlikely but if they say they're going to raise rates or pause cutting that will really affect us because remember the 2021 cycle ended more or less when the FED announced in November 21 that they're going to start um raising rates um and that's pretty much when it was all over so at the moment that Outlook looks really positive because they're cutting into a strong economy you got strong consumer um spending you got strong uh corporate profits the unemployment rate in the US is about only 3 and a half% if you take out all the illegals um it is you know there are some concerning factors like the yield curve un inverting typically preds recession housing starts and housing

growth is is still quite weak um so there are some uh sort of orange Flags to monitor but in the broader perspective of yeah strong profits strong uh consumer spending also real wages are kind of ticking up again you got strong Services industry growth in us and Manufacturing is weak but I said Trump's one of his biggest focuses is to rebuild that so all all things considered it's really strong uh the S&P 500 is pushing new all-time highs consistently and credit spreads are really low and credit spreads always spike in the bond market uh before you have any kind of real concerns so things look really positive again all this data

could change day-to-day week to week but for now the next 6 12 months looks really good um so that's a strong backdrop because Bitcoin has been highly correlated with risk assets um that said us liquidity so um and also Global uh M2 money supply is kind of ticking down a little bit it's not yet like in a downtrend it's kind of more or less chopping but you'd want to see that at least neutral or or kind of return to growth ideally to to maintain strong Trends in Bitcoin because all these assets are you know essentially trading against each other M um we also have really strong dollar

growth so the dxy which historically is not great for Bitcoin it's been good recently I think just because of the Trump rally and and the positive impact that all the things we talked about why it's good for Bitcoin but um I expect the dollar will probably continue to grow especially if Trump starts uh you know doing tariffs that sort of thing and other countries have to weaken their currencies so that could be a potential headwind into the future um so something to monitor um so yeah the all things equal it's a it's a great outlook for the next 6 12 months um but there are some some elements that need to be watched and all these things can affect how long the cycle last um how

big the draw Downs are in the long term that we' talked about um and the other big factor is gold uh that had as we just we mentioned earlier in the in the podcast it had like its bet like the best what one of its best Summers ever up 33% in a couple of months and typically you see when there's major Trends in Gold up or down that Bitcoin will follow gold 3 to six months out and I was tweeting about that all summer that this is really positive and it took I don't know four five six months and we've now started to follow that and close in on that and if you just do a comparative of gold to bitcoin we're about halfway so just closing in on goals performance is going

to take us to at least sort of 140k 150k um uh and that should happen like I said in relatively short speed in next couple months um all SQL and um so hard assets have been performing really well that's that's positive you want to see strength in Gold uh to support Bitcoin and also you want to see strength in Bitcoin to support altcoin so all the altcoin uh strong crypto old season whatever you want to call strong crypto markets are on the back of strong Bitcoin rallies um so yeah once bitcoin's well above 100 120 140 I think that's when you see they're also the best performance start to emerge in altcoins and other crypto assets I think we haven't seen anything in the sort of

non-bitcoin sector until we're Beyond 100K it's gonna I think it's going to blow people's minds and do you think that uh what are your thoughts on bitcoin dominance for this cycle you think that we that we do have a more typical altcoin season to to call it that and Bitcoin dominance will come down from the 60 59% that it's at right now or do you think that maybe some of these other factors and again I know you don't have a crystal ball but do you think some of these other factors lead Bitcoin dominance to continue and this is an abnormal cycle for Bitcoin yeah yeah definitely don't have a crystal ball so I do get some of these things wrong of course um but yeah yeah um but yeah base case I I I see it coming down but it

could come down from higher so obviously Bitcoin dominance has just been uh just straighted up um it's at around 60% Mark which is usually the region where you kind of see alt season start and and other assets out on bitcoin and we've started to see bit of that um I think a lot of the reason for the Bitcoin dominant strength is obviously the ETFs and Trad fighter doesn't they just want to allocate to bitcoin um BSR conversations Etc so you know bitcoin's had a very good um strong start to this cycle and that's actually a good thing we want to see that to make this sustainable um but yeah once we're we blow through 100K say we're you know imagine as Jing we're 120

130k um assuming things are more or less healthy across all the metrics we've discussed then I think that's when you see the real flows into alt coins for a few reasons because anyone who's been in crypto or Bitcoin for the last any called a year to four years plus they will have had massive net worth gains um if the if bitcoin's 130k and they'll be looking to allocate to something else that can generate yields it's that old story of capital flows Downstream to the smaller assets the same with bonds to equities to Gold to bitcoin right and so that's why I went gold as well Bitcoin as well I think you're seeing a lot of reallocation from gold to Bitcoin now and then once we're you know well onto the hundreds you'll see that allocation

start to flow Downstream you'll also see all the firms in tradire that have allocated to bitcoin ETFs and and other Bitcoin Investments they will have had this awesome investment case they have said look we've generated 150% return whatever it is in the last year guys let's look at these other assets they're starting to do really well and so they'll allocate to the you know other ethereum ETF other ETFs that will probably launch and just other old coins generally you'll see all these VC funds pop up again which have basically been destroyed in the last two years um and just generally the return of retail so I think people uh forget like the FDX collapse destroyed retail and I would until even a month ago I'd say retail

was still destroyed the retail flows I did some um analysis on this about a month and a half ago before um the election when we're in sort of 60 70k range there basically no retail activity um on Exchange um everything that was happening was in memecoins and memecoins while they've done extremely well last year is still a tiny tiny percentage of this this whole asset class is like 3 or 4% or something so that was booming but it was mostly people already in crypto and the new retail flows are basically nonexistent so you know you see a lot more uh retail flows starting to appear since we've you know hit 80 90k um which I'd expected once we were above 80 I

think the real retail flows start at 100K plus because no one can people who aren't in Bitcoin just cannot comprehend Bitcoin above $100,000 like it it just doesn't process because most people thought this was going to zero and it's a scam and and you know FTX and it's you know drug money or whatever right like that negative sentiment is all just ingrained in people in the last couple years and once for above 100K they're like how is this possible like how could I have been so wrong and that's when you see the real flick the switch flick and the flows happen and that's again another reason why the move from 100 to 200 is it can happen very rapidly in a matter of weeks um could be in less than a month uh so um yeah definitely

exciting stuff and um I think 2025 for crypto in general be should be great it should be like 2017 21 you know every four years it's pretty much the same story it's just it's it doesn't seem the same story every time it doesn't seem fair that it's so predictable and a pattern but it has been and there's a lot of data behind that all exactly and I that's one of the reasons I said this is the last cycle that matters because I think we'll get that next year but assuming that happens assuming Bitcoin goes to you know great scenario goes Tok maybe more maybe a bit less altcoin Mark cap will have doubled as well at least you know this whole asset class is going

to be at um you know 67 trillion doll right and that or you know maybe it's four to five six s right like it's big uh it's basically half gold um or almost um and so that's why over the next four years you know maybe you know again depends on what's happening in the US government levels but the relative amount of returns starts to diminish it's diminishing returns argument and we've seen that every four years that the relative returns get less and less I think this cycle will probably be better than last one because we had a really bad cycle in in 21 relatively yeah it was very stunted um we had the you know the FED regime and we also had the you know

anti the US government was basically anti crypto so there's a lot of things but I think this one will be better um but relatively every subsequent fouryear cycle is going to be less upside um that said it's still going to be one of the best performing assets over the next 10 years I have no doubt yeah yeah that said it's still it's still G to be amazing but but like like if we have this podcast in you know 2028 I I just like it could still be a very good uh year but I wouldn't expect you know the returns that we had you know this year or or four years ago to be as comparable yeah it'll be a lot

small basically a lot slower moving a more choppy asset class but and slower moving in in sort of four eight years time yeah which which which is positive it's it's how it grows I was gonna say that's a good exact that happens because we made it this happens because of adoption and we succeeded right like yeah exactly and it becomes the world Reserve asset which is just where it's it's tracking perfectly too yeah yeah fantastic Charles this has been a wonderful conversation thank you so much for your time today everybody listening in I want to know how you guys are feeling you feeling bullish you feel embarrass let us know H and if you don't follow Charles on Twitter guys make sure you go follow Charles on Twitter throw a

link to his Twitter in the show notes uh because he's putting out great tweets and great charts on a consistent regular basis Charles deep out of you thanks for your time today great to be here thanks for having me thanks for listening everybody have a wicked awesome day as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free five minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you well making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your

number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day