Why We're Uncomfortably Bullish on Crypto | Roundup

Transcript

just to share like how I am uncomfortably bullish at this point I really am I'm I'm man look at the man in his eyes GL I am really fidgeting on the chair I really am I'm coming back from token and breakpoint being like these people online have no are so disconnected from reality because the loudest people on crypto Twitter are the Traders and they have been sitting in the midst of just choppiness for six months and I am here I'm in the trenches with 20,000 people who are building really cool [ __ ] this episode is brought to you by anoma the universal intent machine introducing a new era of applications

where you define the outcomes you want to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newsletter at ana. net special thanks to enoma for sponsoring today's episode let's face it building on crowded l1s or expensive l2s is just not going to unlock the next generation of applications super containers offers dedicated customizable app spaces running on supra's 500 ktps layer one blockchain giving you complete control over gas tokens and fees get notified when super containers are ready for Builders at super.com containers hey everyone I'm excited to

tell you about fbtc an omni chain Bitcoin asset being used used throughout defi today so far it's accumulated about $157 million in tvl making Bitcoin more accessible and useful be sure to check out Sparkle the rewards program where you earn points just by holding fbtc get started at ftc.com ongoing [Music] dampa sir well what happened now now now not in a room and I look like a [ __ ] now we're the same actually I actually got to make my my chair a little taller here you

[ __ ] tall too that okay who's tall [Laughter] now I love cursing by the way so like you know I don't know if we get like a little rating and Spotify that's censored content explicit content you know that sticker in CDs yes I'm showing my age like adult like explicit content that little black sticker on the bottom yeah let's uh I'm gonna pull up the I'm gonna pull up the comments well while I'm doing that how was uh how's the trip how's the trip yeah how's the breakpoint and token and what do you think of Singapore as as it wrapped up oh amazing I tweeted about this uh two of the most two of the kindest things people have ever done to me happened

this week or that week uh this guy Kai published here actually I'll show it to you I I was going to say I think my bookshelf might just collapse and itself but he uh gave me this book he now open sourced it but for anyone that's viewing this it's like wrecked mistakes From The Trenches he he went by zerox Chancellor now he's kind of still pseudo Anonymous but anyways he uh assembled this and I think time is the best investment that anyone can give you so he basically interviewed uh probably I think it's like 50 of the uh most Deen people in crypto and asked them what are your top

three mistakes and then he assembled them collect them and then just publ like created this book and uh anyways I had a really fantastic meeting with him in Singapore he's based in I guess I won't say but uh yeah we we then he dedicated the book to me this book I mean he book yeah no one's ever done a book like I guess I've made it in life Jesus uh it feels uh that's cool what are what are the big mistakes have you read it yet no I have yeah of course I read it uh while I was in Singapore and then on the flight back um he published a great thread on it summarizing it and by the way people want access to the book I didn't want to like force him to do it I just sort of kept it I didn't

name names and then he came out and say yeah I'll publish it so he he open sourced it but it usually runs around common themes leverage you know just don't play with leverage as a ticking bomb um not platforming your own thesis selling too early seems to be a common error which I sort of don't think is that big of an error it's just sort of like again error process or outcome uh but process errors are definitely definitely leverage uh you know a couple people obviously had hacks and you know FDX money and FDX uh sizing is a common mistake that a lot of people um really point to so yeah and then just listening to friends and

like not doing their own research yeah seems to be a common denominator here all right so give us your maybe tell us about how you're feeling about things Mark Market's ripping right so salana is up 9% in a week 5% wh is now back yeah whiff is back above $ two main coin pop ripping doll maybe let's start there where are you in terms of so yeah whiff is up 22 um but last you said on this podcast you were there's a this was a couple months ago you were thinking about trimming some meme coins I'm not sure what what you did there what so where are you sitting in with these meme coins did you end up taking the money off the top did you I not off the top I did take some size off

um I put it back on I'm kind of in my P private books you know sort of fully allocated so to speak um I I've said this in my panels that I token 2049 I generally think that the Market's too focused on the election and I think I I am of the mind that it's it is important but I think people are pricing it too conservatively and so like very binary it's either going to be really good or really bad and I think the money's in the middle um and so I'm willing to I was of the mind that I should I felt I felt compelled to put on more risk um you're also seeing the Central Bank of China inject more liquidity into

the system and I think people I've been observing China a lot um people should go listen to Joe mcc's interview November of last year he also references China and like the central bank and uh injection of liquidity they're obviously having more systemically like the US like it's an inable situation they have basically 2008 on their hands they have like a bunch of like underperforming loans in the real estate sector everyone knows it the question is like a lot of these like internet Chinese internet companies are trading at like distress levels like sub 10 PE ratios like that's just bananas in my mind it's like I look at that and the coupon that you can get some of these like structure products and to me that's just signal that the market is incredibly bearish on China and I think just get paid whether it's crypto or in

some of these other alternative so to speak when people are just as Howard marks likes to describe the pendulum swings to extremes crypto is very much like that and it uh yeah I just think it's uh it's just topical I think I'm very encouraged by what I'm seeing particularly coming out of Singapore you know like talking to Founders that I'm an investor in or just not an investor in a lot of energy in the breakpoint conference a lot of product shipping I still need to catch up on a lot of the videos but I've been very public I'm very and I think you have too I'm very bullish on on certain categories that are gonna you know be pretty impactful to Showcase

people what crypto's all about like what deep in t it de deepin oh deep you cannot argue reasonably with a person if you tell them would you switch your mobile operator if you can say 50% and it's the same plan or even better in terms of liability yeah same speed like you know I mean we we've never had that we've never had that clear coherent Nob brain or argument for crypto so what is the if you are listening to this and you say oh man okay Santi I know he said think for yourself but I don't want to think for myself I just want to follow Santi into these trades how do you put on a dpin position

first of all I know he said the biggest mistake that people make is following other people in these trades but I don't thank you thank you for uh first of all none of this is legal or any advice for that matter I am highly unreliable should not be trusted I can change my mind on a whim so anyways now that that's out of the way here's how you should no I'm kidding uh I mean there's public OB obviously my you know do you know why you can't listen to people by the way about what they you remember in uh actually won I won't actually dox any well you know people change their minds all the time and they don't always announce it so let's say you see on Twitter or let's say yeah let's say you see on Twitter that someone sold a bunch

of their whiff um well you might want to go home and sell a bunch of your whiff because you trust that person but then the next day they changed their mind they said actually I just saw a bullish signal and I bought back my whiff but you but they didn't but they never updated you on that so now you're you're caught and whiff is up 20% and you're it's selected announcement of probably survivorship bias and host bias like look some of these Traders like are laring and like if they're actually correct they' be like the best investors of all time which they're not uh because they're running like private paid groups like on telegram I'm like H there's a big disconnect here I don't have a paid telegram group gentle ladies and gentlemen if you ever see one it's a scam and so you know I mean like these

self-proclaimed like the best Traders on on crypto like have these paid telegram groups I'm like well if you're really that profitable like why do you need to like sustain yourself on paid telegram groups nonetheless I digress um deep in I express it through largely private Investments um you know the likes of Geo well actually geonet is token has a token but like uh look my investments I guess I'll tell you like andrina you're an investor in Adrina you know it doesn't have a token but that's one way to express it I guess if you're like more practically speaking for people that are investing in tokens like you could look at you know no surprise helium very encouraging the mobile carrier offloading is huge I think um so that's something that I'm really

tracking um the other ones are like you know you have high mapper you have I'm just listing like in no particular order like just the the public the largest deepend projects you could buy a basket of those I would caution and I would encourage people like there are very meaningful differences amongst these particularly the the the thing that I would focus on in terms of doing diligence so I I'll give I guess this would be useful is focus on like the token economics for instance I've met a lot of projects are like hey we've been able to you know C like uh we've been able to uh you know map like 50% of the roads in India you're like wow that's great and they're like so you're basically

penetrated 50% of the market and you've only generated less than a million dollars in fees so you're telling me the market opportunity is nothing so I think that's the challenge and both the opportunity and deep in that like not all models are going to really work not because so like traditionally infrastructure has been very much like Monopoly regulated monopolies or just artificial like natural monopolies in the sense of like they're very Capital intensive so like because of that it's very concentrated and so in so far as like deep in lowers that capex cost allows small incumbents to like come in and disrupt the market again doesn't necessarily mean that like the Tam is that the Tam may be very big that like the total addressable Market you're saying okay like you can build a next

cell mod like a next next like Telecom in the US well that's multi-billion dollars but like the fallacy might be how much is that actually translated into Revenue because either the price comes down because you're undercutting right as as a monopoly comes down then you might not be able to charge as much and so the revenue trans I think the Market's not dumb in the sense of like there's a reason why a lot of these deep in projects don't trade at multi you know multi-billion dollar stuff right um and so it's either tokenomics are off or the monetization is unproven right they might have been able to scale the supply really well but the demand's not there the users are not

there the usage is not there like again you could really incentivize people to get on the network and mine a particular token that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to stick around or they're going to use the product so you know helium for example probably the most I'm not actually an investor uh but you know probably most interesting and project in terms of traction they are trading at a $ 1.6 billion valuation so and then there's like vaporware that trades at seven billion yeah have you seen the metrics of helium's metrics recently like the I'm mostly looking at the carryer off loading yeah the carrier data here let's I just I just found this on Twitter I

don't know the source of this but this is the this is the chart I'm talking about some the chart looks something like this I don't know if this is the exact right chart but like yeah I mean it is it is a it's working yeah it working a carrier would not offload traffic onto the helium network if they didn't think it was reliable they wouldn't risk their Core Business right the the tldr in it is 11,000 signups right right off 59 60 60 terabytes of data right offloaded which has gone parabolic and 43,000 daily subscribers so these are subscribers other carriers connect

yeah pretty challenge look everyone should go read primer on this stuff no one will I guess so the tldr is networks rely on other networks to share coverage right if you're a subscriber to AT&T or Verizon you might go to a particular region that AT&T itself doesn't have coverage but then they rely on other networks to provide service and they're always the the challenge is always like the peak load balancing is like they need to have enough capacity for like Peak usage and consumption but of course not all the time you have that and so that's why it becomes important to be able to offload some of that traffic um subscribers whether because they're in a particular region or just too much

traffic and congestion they use and they're starting to use more so the helium Network to solve for that and that's very encouraging yeah so I that obviously trans to as you just brought this up how much helium is being burned right how do you think about when you see metrics like this that are good but helium's the narrative around helium and the soft stuff around helium have been like soft in the past how do you think about those two things I'm not an expert we'd have to bring in maybe Kyle or someone who's very much into it um because I think again the nuances like okay the tokenomics and the revenue the monetization piece I still haven't done

enough as I said I don't have a position but I'm I'm looking at this as a case study into um just deep in as a category yeah but you know to me it is I would guess so said differently if you were to describe helium to someone and you probably could tell them Hey listen it has all these usage and stats and like where do you think it would be trading on a fully de bases over under by the way high like circulating to to Total token like you know market cap is 1.2 fully dut is 1.6 a lot of those tokens are already in

circulation so it's like 75% of those tokens are in circulation so a lot of it's been vested and in the market um I would probably guess that most people would estimate that it it's over 1.6 billion and fully diluted right right particularly if you kind of frame it in I don't know let's look at Ando for instance flavor of the month eight billion yeah which I'm beish on by the way for a few reasons like I just think treasuries become less and less interesting in a world where rates go down so the well and there are so many people offering treasuries into the onchain market that it becomes a very commoditized that's that's a

commoditization the the appeal of of punting treasuries goes ex goes down as rates come down and so I think the more interesting opportunity I think the Market's waking up to is what are those it's like money markets right the obvious of the world the Caminos of Caminos have been on a tear full disclosure investor in both um but I think there's a reason why that is and I think the market sort of waking up to that idea that like the higher yield opportunities and the ability to capture fees is going to go more towards less tokenization of treasuries and real estate some of this stuff more so money markets right that people are doing recursive leverage and spec like you know what I mean like that that is where a lot of the fees you know end up in a in a higher risk environment so to speak yeah this is a

pretty by the way uh rwa doxyz I don't know if you've ever been to this uh site it's a really good resource to look at all these treasuries ni so who has the highest for instance it's uh it is black right bidd so treasury product metrics it's bidd which is Black Rock then Ro fob bxx I think that's Franklin Templeton I would assume okay um oh here we can look at it here so Tre uh top entities okay so they break it down by protocols so andos is at 600 million securitize is at 500 million Franklin templeton's at 400 million that's their Benji product then it there's a big drop off it goes hash note open Eden then superstates around 100 million then it's

a big drop off right centrifuge people know that name 35 million the issuers if you flip over to this tab yeah Black Rock is in the lead at a billion yeah um this will get shaken up because there's a huge program it's called Uh Grand Prix it's m maker Dow Grand Prix it's a billion dollar incentive program they're basically taking a billion dollars of like unallocated I think usdc um I'm sure I'm botching this but they're taking a billion of usdc and then allocating it to some of these people um and buying treasuries with to get the yield on it so I think some will flow into got to imagine Ando superstate folks like this yeah but you know I mean back to deepen

like I guess it would be interesting if we were to do a poll and be like where do you think deep in this particular name trads knowing the backdrop of some of these metrics actual usage um and I guess yeah I don't I actually would invite listeners or someone that would like to come on the Pod next week like explain to me why what has been challenged or like I'd like to have a debate of like the bull case and the be case for helium as an example or geonet but let's let's talk helium because I think that's like the the like the the most important deep in protocol right now because it is just has the most amount of traction and visibility or I'm happy to

construct my brain and then I'm happy to like come prepared I'm not as prepared next session would you take the bull case or the bear case I could take both I'm I'm G to construct both arguments in my brain who uh by the way whichwich and gears a little who won the debate with you and aichel I actually think aichel did a more was more articulate he presented more facts um and I think he did a really good job um I think he won actually the poll say that I win but of course I mean you were at a salonic conference so was at a salonic conference we both had to take both we both had to take both sides of the argument so um we just came at it from different perspectives but I think you do a really good job nice I have uh I

have an invest I'd like to put in front of you oh yes yes we got the poly Market live Hoffman Hoffman vers Warwick yes Kane vers DAV I caught up with Kane on Singapore that dude is looking good these days uh in terms of his he's he's been bulking he's been training he's ready for the fight I uh actually uh he's sober too I've been trolling Kan like he was uh they did this part this infinex event with uh with Omega eth you know you're are in infinex and uh they texted me before the event like

they had these F1 simulators and you know like Kane was like K's talking [ __ ] he's like I'll Crush you man let's put one salon on the line I'm like fine and he's like I've been training you know I'm like Kane not because you have a fancy C does it mean that you're going to be good in the simulator I'm like you're training he's like you're training for running you're training for karate you're training for like simulators like you know that you know you're like a mile wide an inch deep and he's like oh you get all triggered by that funny thing is though that in this in this event there's they had these two simulators I think Kane was like okay and then his other part eigor was okay and then the the Andre and Miguel from second lane they're actually

professional like Porsche really yeah yeah I know this so they told me this when we were in F1 and of course they smoked everyone out of the water they're like really good drivers and so anyways um just as a reminder anytime you talk [ __ ] there's always a guy that's quiet in the background there's always a guy yeah yeah well anyways back to this who do you think wins oh man don't pull up the market the Market's already the Market's no I you think the YouTube comments are good look at the look at the pretty sure David Hoffman's a proud Drinker of soyland oh David's popping off David goes I eat more steak than you oh this is funny all right so the we are recording this

Thursday afternoon uh Hoffman is a 35% chance so okay ladies and gentlemen there's less than $7,000 in this market so I can go in here and punt the it's like oh man this is uh I think there's some money to be made in this market for sure there's there's there's gross you know for context Kane Kane box back in the day so if you put a th000 bucks on Kane right now it's a 30% return you put a th000 bucks on Hoffman yeah 65% return oh okay yeah the Market's saying that sorry I got this wrong the Market's saying that Kane no the market saying Kane will win yeah yeah yeah

65 I actually think it's closer than that 5050 5050 all right put your money so so then you should bet on Hoffman I look no one listen I'm not gonna make ition on this but I I I mean I sympathize Kane's my friends I put money on I'm not going to bet against my friend godamn it I have a lot of flaws but loyalty is not one of them yeah true true true so we had some regulatory stuff this week so like regulatory policy public uh public sector so Richie Torres had some epic comments um maybe we could play that and listen to them out loud uh Nick wrote a great P Nick Carter wrote a great piece in Pirates wire um which for anyone that doesn't know what's that

Pirates wire was a is is an independent Media company created by this guy Mike salana uh really took off during covid as I think there were a lot of people fed up with like fed up with like either government overreach or you know maybe they're pro- libertarian or they're fed up with the mask mandate or they're fed up with lockdowns or they're fed up with like the woke movement or like it was all that you know kind of crowd I would say needed a place to consume information and salana created Pirates wire I don't know when he created it but I I I associate it with like coming up during Co and um yeah it's a it's an independent media brand so nice so what was the extent of his post uh Nick

basically so I I I've skimmed it ahead of this but I need to it's a very it's a long piece I need to actually sit down and read it um the things that I wrote like the bullets that I wrote down as I was like looking through it so uh one one uh is that silver basically silvergate so Nick's been writing about choke point um obviously choke chokepoint 1.0 was was Obama basically debank a lot of the like I think it was marijuana companies gun companies things like things like that Nick has been talking about 2.0 which is uh purposefully debank a lot of the crypto companies so when Nick wrote this piece he said look I I feel very Vindicated a lot of what I called out back in March when there's this banking crisis has actually come true so uh reading through

some of the bullets I wrote down so silvergate volunt IL liquidated in March 2023 it wasn't a forced liquidation it was a voluntary liquidation where they were crushed by regulatory pressures and one of the takeaways of this piece is that there was there there was a bank run but they actually survived the bank run it was the regulatory pressure that forced them to liquidate um so that one second is that the Federal Reserve allegedly imposed a secret 15% cap on crypto related deposits which killed silvergate business model so uh the FED yeah put this 15% arbitrary and secret cap on crypto related deposits silvergate obviously

has a lot of crypto deposits so that that really hurt their business um uh Nick called out uh Senator Warren's public letters which kind of questioned silvergate practices um said that her letters her public letters questioning silver Gates practices started to fuel the downfall and then Nick calls into question a potential alliance between Warren and um who's the short seller uh Mark cootes um where they kind of like targeted silvergate together and Mark and a notorious short seller he was he was very much vocal on this for a while so what I think what Nick calls out and again I I have to like fully read the

piece because this was just me skimming it is that Cotes was kind of fueling Warren with some pieces of information and Warren would just public write you know kind of write out what this short seller was saying and she you know she'd kind of write it out in these public letters um and so silvergate uh collapse kind of then triggered this domino effect which took down svb and signature um I'm trying to think if there's anything else in this piece I mean it's a really I mean I'm not doing the peace Justice it was an amazing piece by that Nick wrote we we we'll link to it and you you should actually go read this full piece it'll take you take you like 30 minutes or something but it was a good one

so well I guess on this point not to how do you think about all of that in the context of just the election just I want to touch briefly on that just if you have any updated views based on where you sit and also based on your conversations with folks over the last couple of weeks well so comma came out and had these two pro crypto statements this week which were what I would call the the minimum viable positive crypto statements that she could make there was like the I mean I'll just candidly the lamest it was it was better than not saying anything so where she's been right now so here here's my summary of this she uh

everyone everyone didn't like Biden because Biden was kind of in Coots with Warren and Gensler and uh had hadn't really done anything to help the crypto industry then obviously there's the the hot Swap and Comm gets put in place and the whole industry I think was kind of anxiously awaiting uh maybe a pro crypto Democrat in in coma and it's been disappointing the last month or two because she hasn't said anything she's been very quiet and hasn't really laid out her policies now she hasn't it's not like she hasn't laid out her policies on crypto but she's laid out her policies on a lot of other things she hasn't really laid out any policies on anything right I was with a a Healthcare Executive earlier in the week and he's like yeah we haven't heard anything

about Healthcare we have no idea how she thinks about healthare and it was you know same same as crypto so this week she spoke at a wall uh at a thing on Wall Street and made one statement about being I think Pro crypto or something like that then uh yesterday yesterday she came out and uh I will share I added facturing in Aros space remain dominant in Ai and Quantum Computing blockchain and other emerging Technologies so right so what she said was we will remain dominant in AI Quantum Computing blockchain and other emerging Technologies so you've got a couple people on crypto Twitter I think it was Hayden Adams uh David said you know this

is the pivot KLA is officially Pro crypto I I I don't I'm I don't think that is the case I'm I'm waiting for I think to be I think to be Pro crypto after so many years of being anti- crypto you need a much stronger you can't just throw block for first off what is this word blockchain you can't just throw blockchain in with Quantum Computing and AI you have to I need to hear I want to launch a token on pump. fun to be convinced yeah I need you have let's just talk the POS ladies and gentlemen you have one political candidate wants to launch a token the other one continues to use this blockchain terminology that's it I'm not just gonna leave it at that yeah yeah yeah I turned

off by the word blockchain by the way I think it's from the blockchain Bitcoin era yeah yeah crypto blockchain not crypto yeah exactly so um I mean listen politics Will Do ins will say not do anything to get elected so yeah you know yeah whatever but I would on this point on this point um the odds have been all over the place I think Cala has been ripping actually 55 45 now uh as of late um so take that for what it is also the crypto pack is been donating a lot to camela as well I didn't know that far yeah anyways really where did you see

that I may have heard it but I interesting yeah that's interesting yeah I don't know that so anyways so that so that happened this week um I think people are you know it's it's uh just a little behind the scenes like we've reached out so at permissionless we have several congressman and Senators coming to speak um and we've just had a lot of political interest in in the in the conference just because it's a week out from or excuse me it's a month out from the election we have sent an equal number of invites to both Republicans and Democrats we would like to have we actually would like to make this more of a bipartisan conference instead of a partisan conference even though I know a lot of people in the industry vehemently disagree with me on that that's just the decision that we've made we'd like to

make it more of a bipartisan conference the there have been several uh conservatives Republicans right who have accepted our invitation um Mike Lee senator from Utah is coming John Curtis the most likely incoming senator from Utah who's replacing Mitt Romney's uh who's replacing Mitt Romney is coming Tom emmer is coming right there's several Republicans who' have accepted Tom Emmer's behind St coin bill yeah I think so he usually comes one that is great clips about him interviewing like great there's only one Democrat who's accepted our invitation I've emailed the number of people who we've

spoken with we've had calls with uh Senators congressmen only one person has accepted our invite so it was uh pretty disappointing yeah and that is that's Richie Richie Tores by the way um who who did a fantastic fantastic fantastic people go listen to that clip yeah basically Corners G he says hey um you know is the is a New York Yankees ticket of security and he's like no and then he's like okay well how's that any different from some of these nfts right right so can you hear that yeah yeah beautiful plate Mr Gensler uh suppose I were to sell you a Yankee ticket and tell you that the Yankee ticket could appreciate

in value and could be resold at a profit in the secondary market and as is the case with all sports tickets suppose the proceeds from the sale of the Yankee ticket goes toward paying for the Yankee game by selling you the Yankee ticket and by entering into an investment contract with you and therefore conducting an unregistered security offering um I appreciate the question I don't know all the facts and circumstances but I don't think so I mean I I know where we're headed here uh representative but uh I don't think so in that Yan so Yankee ticket is not and why why is the yany ticket not of security well it's it's really a question in the court rep have been clear on this is is the offer and sale

specifically with a Yankee ticket though what when when you're buying a Yankee ticket what are you purchasing you're buying access to a Yankee game is that fair to say I I understand it's been a while since I went to a yany game but you're welcome to I used to I used to live in New York and my three daughters were all born in New York so in the stoner cat's case uh the creators were selling an nft that offered access to an animated web series from the standpoint of federal Securities Law is there a legal difference between buying a Yankee ticket that offers you the experience of a Yankee game and buying an nft that offers you the experience of an animated web series again I don't want to comment on any one specific uh well it was a

settlement a f complete it's not an ongoing litigation you can comment on it but it's it's about how is something offer and sold is it offer and sold is an investment contract or or in individuals looking to a common Enterprise anticipating profits based on the effort I'm familiar with the definition you're avoiding the question um thank oh gotam oh you're muted that was good yeah yeah just yeah go ahead that was good this this is what I mean by I'm not as a lot of the discussions that I had in the last couple of weeks have been around

you know asking a fund manager or just people hey how do you think about the election risk and a lot I just think that a lot of people are giving it too much weight in their decisions and while it may be true that in the near term there may be some dislocation to the order of 10 20% plus minus like in in either direction I just think that I can't be but excited about that both the short-term mindset of a lot of allocators you know on one end like people are only talking about the election and the particular movement that that might have like 10 20% in an AET class that I I'm underwriting 10x is nothing you you know I mean like there there's a there's a

disconnect there that that I think this is why you can make why I'm excited in this s class because there is that time preference and too much weight on near-term things that yeah don't factor into my thinking as much when I'm focused on the long-term and the compounding effect of like this is either going to be a zero most likely or like 10 like very asymmetric outcome and so I I I pay attention to these opportunities because I see them as an opportunity in the sense that most most people are distracted in many ways right and you know you're you're looking at all the breakpoint videos and all the traction and token and then you're seeing this amount of like too much

nearsightedness um combined with like this encouragement of like on both sides of the aisle it's become more and more EV clear that there needs to be rule making there needs to be policy and every court case most court cases are not being won like by by the you know three later agencies they're being won by crypto projects set fair point you need to be well capitalized you need the resources to fight it but crypto continues to raise money to fight it off as a lobby as an industry we' become better at that cor Nation so even if you're not Ripple or coinbase that you don't you know of course it helps to have these coffers to like you know pay

the legal bill bills but I just this is what I mean by I'm not as concerned about the election and I just think that it's certainly important but it's not I think it's going to be a divided house and so the worst I guess the worst case is we don't get enough policy via stable coin bill or some other sensible regulation the next four years that to me is probably going probably like I'm just kind of underwriting that yeah hey everyone Jason here I wanted to talk about something that's been on my

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unlock to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newsletter at ana. net special thanks to anoma for sponsoring today's episode let's face it building on crowded l1s or expensive l2s is just not going to unlock the next generation of applications in crypto that's where super containers come in offering a completely new solution that transforms development control imagine dedicated customizable app spaces running on supra's 500 ktps layer 1 blockchain you get complete control over gas tokens and fees with the freedom to use your own token create local fee markets or even go gasless scale on demand and build

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actually was gonna tweet this and then I was like I'm I'm not sure I'm suppos supposed to tweet things like this but like it is I think people are so uncomfortably off sides right now because they've gotten so caught in this like consolidated period of like 6 months of choppiness that they forget what could be coming I would say prior right it's like you you should be updating your just to share like how I am uncomfortably bullish at this point I really am I'm I'm look at the man look at the man in his eyes I am really fidgeting on the chair I really am I'm coming back from token and breakpoint being like these people online have no are so disconnected from reality because

the loudest people on crypto Twitter are the the Traders and they have been sitting in the midst of just choppiness for six months and I am here I'm in the trenches with 20,000 people who are building really cool [ __ ] yeah that is that is the Traders no that cover picture that cover that cover picture are the people on crypto Twitter and you smile on your face is me because I am just excited by the way I just say this guy the way that he knew that my favorite to put in the forward like my favorite excert of a speech from Teddy Roosevelt he's like the book is dedicated to me this the and he starts off by saying the credit belongs to the man is as scratch as a man a Santi who

is actually in the trenches in in the arena yeah in the arena I'm gonna get roasted for this that's amazing but it's amazing I mean you said it at the beginning okay China is doing massive liquidity both monetary and fiscal stimulus we are cutting rates and we're about to have a decision on the election where I don't think it necessarily even matters who's going to be elected it's just the market hates the uncertainty of not having eled it's like come on guys like be a little more like just look look look two months out you don't even have to look a year out like just look two months out so yeah it's a we're going to see a relief and most of the times it's like you see it up or down

doesn't really matter the long-term trajectory you know you all see the chart right it's noisy but I just you know I can't help but be encouraged by a lot of the traction and yeah I continue to believe we're entering a consumer application Phase of this industry you're seeing it in different pockets it's real and a lot of times it's sometimes very important to re underwrite your thesis and I appreciate some of these things might have been tried in 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 the space is moving fast and I think you need to you need to be constantly on top of it and you know Traders can make a lot of money you know I guess the difference is know the game you're playing e you're a Trader or an

investor but like if you're going to be investing you should and you're underwriting the type of return that probably you're requiring to take this amount of risk you should be paying a lot of attention but you should be actually paying attention in the right areas meaning go look at all the goddamn break breakpoint videos and less lines on a chart go understand what's happening in China you know that matters liquidity injection matters like the market like China internet's like ralli like look at baba baba has gone from 70 60 bucks to plus 100 in like matter of in this week yeah it's just wild yeah

um we released a good salana dashboard have you seen this thing I saw that yep yeah so we we actually made it free so big shout out to the were you a breakpoint yeah I went for I went for like a day nice what did you think of it um it was a pretty incredible event I mean from an event organizer perspective it was like one of the best organized events I've ever been to um and then I just loved the focus on like I would say front-end products instead of infrastructure um you know obviously they don't have to focus on infrastructure because they are the infrastructure so it's uh I mean I break point that you had a you know fire dancer announcement but that was fire dancer true yeah of course um yeah I thought it was I thought it was an

amazing event actually one of the best crypto events I've ever been to um I thought the like sponsorship activations were good too like jambo's pullup bar uh Che roasted on Wormhole yeah yeah we can we can talk about that later but uh Wormhole had the like Bridge from like one place to another I thought it was yeah I thought it was a great event I mean I thought it was the best best crypto conference I've been full stop the debates were great um yeah we I mean we're going to take a lot of like every time I go to these conferences I just take inspiration for how to make our events better and sometimes I go to these I'm like you know what there's there's really not much here I'm going to take inspiration from but breakpoints one of those events from like they did

the little things right they didn't give me any reason to leave they had good beverages cough good coffee the speaker Lounge was well situated where I could you know it was I had all my meetings there I was it was incredibly productive it was just it was just Flawless in my mind it was really good you know most of the conferences have crappy food and just just give me good coffee and variations of coffee that I want to have and don't give me a reason to leave you know I mean like it was just good yeah it was very good so we're thinking about this from a conference organizers perspective the industry is about to have what happened in SAS where there used to be these big SAS events and then you started seeing all the big SAS

companies Salesforce HubSpot Etc twilio create their own conferences right and so Avalanche has something in like two weeks in in Argentina uh salana has has had breakpoint um you're going to start seeing more and more of these you have side events like monat's probably gonna do one in New York I heard monad is doing one I think next week actually so yeah no but they're gonna have a more developer like a Devcon of Swords basically what you're saying is everyone will have a Devcon of their own yeah well I'm not like breakpoint wasn't really Devcon it was it was their own unique flavor on what a good conference step con for E the like that's a m yeah you have these ECC events and eth Global events so what are you as an attendee

more likely to attend like so I guess because you like salana so you would attend that but maybe you're not going to attend another ecosystem no I've attended the Avalanche one I attended the optos one in Korea um I'm likely attending one in Amsterdam but it's more for allocators legend for Legends uh for Legends legend for Legends yeah oh and you have to ask I mean I I think is that the name is that the name of the event legend legend uh I'd like to from time to time just check into these events to get aame for different like I think it's there's value in going to a developer Centric

conference to get an understanding of the developer Community there's value in you know going to a more generalized conference like token 249 I'm like just amazing surprised with just how big this industry is com as we covered in the last uh weekly Roundup like just felt like dreamforce just really gives you an understanding of like the entire apparatus of crypto like sales and marketing teams closing business deals and just F very different vibe and envir which is good to see yeah I don't know I'll probably like do it's always I'll do a sample size right probably always go to breakpoint uh I'm not going to Devcon this year I just you know I don't like Thailand sounds cool but I'm yeah over travel so we just launched uh we

just announced I know we have permission LS coming up in a couple in two weeks actually um which by the way we just had our two biggest ticket sale days ever so we're probably going to increase the price so go get your ticket there's a Code Empire I actually don't know what we're doing anymore Empire 10 or 20 or 30 just start typing Empire the discount is yeah yeah start from start from 50 and they could be an Empire 90 who knows yeah I don't know damn I think am I gonna get a free ticket not this year I actually gave I I actually bought a ticket for breakpoint because I didn't know if I was going to speak or not I bought it like way way back and then of course I got a free ticket as a speaker anyways I I was like prepping for the

debate and this guy's like oh you know I think someone from coinbase was like we need to get someone in I'm like well there's no more tickets I'm like hey well here's my QR code so uh and the and the bet that I told this individual was like as long as coinbase Prime supports withdrawals usdc and salana godamn it I will like this is the condition so hey by the way Brian or whoever like if you listen to this I fronted a ticket to one of your guys so support usdc on salana please I ran into all those guys at the F1 by way how how was your F1 experience that was good it was really good shout out I mean I went with the second L guys it was it was I mean I bumped into you it's great I mean the the circuit is really special it's

it's like Monaco but something about the KN makes it like I like the night right yeah it first time I'd ever been to F1 it's cool to be Fair it's not a very good spectator sport when you think about it like I appr and then you wait like 10 minutes they come fly in your eye in your ear like it's annoying so ladies and gentlemen yeah but it was fun we were in the so I was in the McLaren Paddock thing and Lando obviously won so that was a cool that like that was a cooler experience than actually seeing the cars fly by yeah yeah yeah but it's most people are watching TV or you want to be listening to the commentator so yeah it's actually I'm surprised of like product Market fit here I've like I've been in many races different circuits it's not a really cool

spectator sport most people go because of the allore of like oh you know it's like these like Greek gods go into these hundred million dollar cars and like they're just living the fast life and it's like so disconnected from reality that it's you know you know there's this phenomenon on if like if if if it's somewhat like attainable it it generates envy and frustration so like imagine soan Maybe your childhood friends they see that they grow up with you and so there's an element of relat like you can relate to that and so if a lot of times most of the Envy comes from people in your inner circle you're like oh wow this guy Johnny killed it but you remember Johnny stupid like we're like grew up together you're in the same school how' this and

because it's so like close to you but these guys like these for drivers are like on a whole new dimension they're like they're like Greek gods you know they're like oh my God like you know they're like they're dating models and like they're going from country to Country racing like they're just like the modern-day Gladiators and like some about that like people love and especially obviously the Netflix series the Netflix series also but even before then it's like not a very fun sport yeah yeah and by the way like I've met a lot of drivers here that like yeah I think that it's less like necessarily skilled to be on the driver seat a lot of the decision comes down to less so skill more so how marketable a driver is so there's a

reason why you have now a Japanese a Chinese an American driver in the paddock you know as soon as Liberty Media bought it like they made that transition they added more races in these places huge markets like certain drivers like czecho are very marketable like the the Mexican go to Mexico City czecho is no no czecho is more popular than president it's crazy presid is not very popular but anyways yeah czecho cheo's gotta be like the most paid guy on that no he's not no no no not at all but he's he's he's he's very very lucrative for Red Bull like extremely lucrative he's like okay yeah not him personally but the amount of money that he brings up no he brings yeah I mean like exactly like the amount of merch and viewership that it attains it's

crazy so like I met for instance uh the Formula E he's a really good Formula E driver and he's like yeah I was racing with Lando and Max and these drivers like in George like like I was I a lot of times I won the race like it was competitive like so why are you not in the padic he's like I don't know I didn't have 20 $30 million to like buy a seat I'm like oh okay so you have to I mean there's only what 12 cars in The Paddock 18 no more more 12 20 20 yeah was like very competed but comes down to a lot of it just well this why I like Lewis because like Hamilton because like the guy like come most of these come from like pretty a families like do you see a lot or actually we can skip that um actually

there is one non- crypto thing I want to get get your take on which is you ju I don't know if you can we can skip we can cut this part if you don't want to talk about it but I am curious like you just went to this event with non- crypto people some like investors and stuff and I'm just curious like their view on the markets and what and I don't know if you talk crypto with them at all and they're very wealthy people and like just I know you're went to a family office event here uh hosted by Apollo um no they crypto doesn't come in the conversation everyone seems to agree the Market is really expensive we're hitting alltime highs um and you know they get nervous about that and so the the theme of the

conversation was you should like as a family office you have more flexibility to think longer term and so you know you should be investing more in the private market so obviously you can get that pitch right from someone that their businesses private markets but I think I related to crypto because again I think you I've always gotten more clarity when I know what my long-term like invest like the the longer you have the longer time Horizon you have on these things I think it just minimizes a lot of noise and you start saying okay if this business is spitting out 16% cash flow then you know it's a good

solid business I'm willing to put it and set it and forget it like again I've been listening to Founders podcast too I think it's great because you know the common theme is like businesses that control their cause survive like Costco Amazon like these businesses are ruthless in terms of managing costs and so I don't know it's just really good I I've been hearing you hear certain like core themes come up over and over again across different investors different you know people in different industries from metals and Mining to technology to crypto it's like the theme is pretty much the same um but I don't know if you if any of that makes sense I mean there's a lot of things that we talked about but it

was just yeah it was it was it never there's like simple things right like for instance like uh private Equity as an asset class is challenged like Financial engineering doesn't work when you can't sadle a company with debt when that debt and cost service at that goes up 3x MH we're not going to a record low interest rate environment again so you up you have to update is that is that going to be a really viable business model well no right so so who who can win it's like if you're still you need to buy a good asset right at a good price if you've overpaid like I guess I guess

concretely there's going to probably be a lost vintage of funds that like are not going to make any money on their Investments like if you invested in SAS like private like a a company private or or or bought it out in the private markets and you paid a crazy multiple and you were just betting on that multiple to stay the same and just like delever and like build equity value some of these late stage crypto companies got 100 they're valued at 100x Revenue right fire blocks analysis like and they're great businesses by the way great great fire Block's gonna do like 100 to 12 million AR chainalysis 150 million but you paid 10 15 20 times forward like you are right good luck

trying to get that multiple in the public markets right so none of these companies are going to be taken public yeah you're going to try to refinance that debt H hey different different rate but um I think uh you know a lot a lot of times like you can make money in any Market condition in any Market environment there's always Pockets that are overlooked and you could say that about crypto is like a ARB on like institutions not being able to allocate to the Ala class since forever and now until recently you can think about meme coins as levered bets on these ecosystems and so most FS aren't going to touch them so there's like these structural arbs that arise in any Market condition right now most money is being out invested into basically lever Nvidia

right like you're you're buying the index it's passive so active management actually becomes more interesting yeah I don't know it's just common like nothing will replace ding work like go do your own work like I don't know it's just like no or or pay someone pay someone decent amount of money to do work for you like this is why I invested in C you H your analyst uh I'm I'm working through it like I'm I'm structurally I also want to do a private Equity Fund but that's topic for a separate conversation breaking breaking I tweeted about this yeah yeah but I the last three weeks have been useful

to people like the idea when you ran by the manasia yeah the simple description which I think great ideas or decent ideas can be crystallized in one or two sentences is I want to do business model Transformations with crypto elements doesn't mean it's not going to have a token I just generally think there's an incredible amount of opportunity to streamline friction points in different business models with crypto elements and I'm focusing on the cost side of the equation because I know I can I know the option you can drive the top line but that's the easy part if I can get comfortable buying a business and and underwriting a decent great return above my hurdle by streamlining

friction points and costs as an example fail checkout massive Market I mean massive problem billions of dollars like at stake I think some of like 20 to 30% of all retention like churn and some of these businesses happens because failed checkout or failed like renewal think about that for a second I know do not a on I mean that's like uh and stripe like that's their yeah like streamline but it's still an issue yeah yeah uh so optimizing on that like CAC you can grow LTV you can like you know lvmh has been experimenting with this but like instead of trying to convince businesses to adopt crypto I'm just going to go knock on the door and

buy them solid businesses and just transform it with crypto elements and so the Playbook is Depends for the re the SE that I'm focused on is consumer retail so I've identified Oh I thought you were saying you were trying to solve the failed pay the fail one example I get it I get it I get it so if your if your CH rate you move companies on to crypto rails exactly if 10% the customer doesn't even know or you're pulling you're pulling the revenue immediately up 10% 100% 100% that that is a massive unlock of value I had a buddy who bought SAS businesses and um the only thing he would do I mean he did other things but like the main thing he would do he would just double the prices just prices

yeah uh loyalty programs yeah um token gatekeeping yeah um uh you know increasing LTV again I'm not that's a easiest part look at almh and what they've done with nft pendants uh digital twins you know I mean like I'm there's a couple of like core bets that I'm willing to make like the amount of digital purchases will not only go up to par with physical Goods but Eclipse that because your digital presence and identity is far more visible and important than as we consume and spend more time online and your digital closet is [ __ ] empty why is it the brands are not offering you a QR code to basically have

a digital twin it's like obvious yeah and so you go in and you do that yeah uh why don't we close that conversation because I know there's a lot more there and then we can do an entire episode on on the vision for what you're building this is not an offer or solicitation by the way I'm just flushing up my ideas but the the the simple thesis is everyone's focused on exporting crypto inside out and I think that no one is doing this and the opportunity is vast I'm looking to buy I mean it's you can go and acquire large businesses and transform them crypto is just an operating standard how much do you think you'll raise oh I know probably zero but uh I don't know it just

I will find out yeah yeah yeah [ __ ] around find out F around find out I'll be I'll be [ __ ] around a lot all right good chat good chat cool thanks everyone for listening we will see you next week thanks for watching today's episode just wanted to quickly mention that the wait for crypto's killer app wve is nearly over thanks to today's sponsor anoma the universal intent machine to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com / anoma or sign up for the newsletter at ana. net thanks again to anoma for sponsoring today's episode [Music]