Why Mike Dudas Holds Zero ETH and Sees Hyperliquid as Crypto's New Tether

Transcript

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The day's most important stories explained clearly [music] in a few minutes. Sign up at unchanged crypto.com/newsletters. [music] Today's guest is Mike Dudis, managing partner at sixman Ventures. Welcome, Mike. >> Hey, how you doing? Good to be here. >> Yeah, nice to have you. despite the fact that it's been a bloody week in the crypto markets. [laughter] >> What's new? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's true. Um, but Bitcoin's down about 12% over the last week, 22% on the month, 27% year-to- date. Uh, the numbers for ETH are even worse, 11% on the week, almost 26% on the month, 40% on the year. We're not

even going to go to Salana because that's even worse. Um, but it seemed like this week what really affected the price was this news that MSTR had sold 32 Bitcoin. It's only $2 and a half million dollars worth. But that seemed to, I guess, cause some lack of confidence in the market. Um, you know, not only did we see that the price dropped, um, 10K basically, uh, you know, over the last few days, um, but, you know, we're continuing to see a lot of discussion about, you know, these various instruments that are part of MSTR. Um Jeff Dorman of ARCA was on the show earlier this week and talked about how the company's kind of put itself in a bind with the capital structure has

four different sets of stakeholders. He says that they cannot all be satisfied at once and he feels like the company made a few different missteps that kind of caused the market to lose at least a little bit of confidence. How do you view everything that's going on there? Yeah. So, uh, Sailor and Strategy are trying to do sort of like two things at once. And I think the one that Jeff that you just talked about, you know, the financialization, you know, of Bitcoin and Bitcoin exposure is one, you know, big thing that they do and I think it's like the most covered thing um by analysts, you know, looking at what's happening with strategy this week or this year. But you know the other one is

it's very different than the financialization of Bitcoin and that's this like sort of turning it into a mimemetic asset. Uh Sailor posts you know quite a few memes um you know and and sort of a religious you know believe me approach that that you know this is a messianic asset and it's the chosen one and uh you know I think those two things aren't super compatible. It's like dissonance to hold them both in your mind at the same time. So the the messianic promise had always been like I'm never a seller of this asset. Like I simply believe in it. So you know whether it was a couple hundred Bitcoin or you know tens of thousands of Bitcoin

you know selling any sort of takes one leg of the stool of this story of strategy away. And the market responded, you know, tremendously negatively to the, you know, never never sell promise, uh, going away. And, you know, the next steps are going to be the really interesting ones. Are they going to sell more? Uh, because obviously, you know, it would take some concern over, you know, the next couple years around, you know, strategy and STRC away. Uh, that would be negative. Have they are they doing that right now? I think the market you maybe doesn't really know. But I think part of the story around strategy, the the sort of religious fervor and belief in it has has been punctured and I don't know how you put that genie back in the bottle and and you know the

market doesn't like it at all. >> And if the Bitcoin price continues to go sideways or even down further, do you have an idea of what you think MSDR should do to, you know, be able to keep paying the dividends on the preferred? Yeah, I I don't know if you have thoughts on that. Uh it's fair again to me so it's not obvious and I think many people would disagree and own you know the different assets that Micro Strategy has issued uh for different reasons than I would but to me it's pretty clear that you need complete belief and that he's an always buyer of this thing. So they have to get back you know as it drops lower and they have to figure out a way to buy this asset clearly. Um and I think most you know observers thought

this day would come eventually at some point. I just think it came a lot sooner for them um because they started levering up because they have to pay out so many cash flows and and you know sort of the check is coming due. >> All right. So now let's turn to Ethereum which also has been having a sort of moment of reckoning. um you know what kicked off the latest round of news because obviously this story has been actually going on for a couple years is that there were a number of senior departures from the foundation then Vitalik kind of tried to respond to the criticism saying basically the foundation will be shrinking and he views it as becoming one among many nodes. Um we also saw you know longtime believers like David Hoffman losing

their faith at least in ETH the asset is how he describes it. I'm curious, are you bullish or bearish on ETH or Ethereum? And generally, what's your analysis of everything going on in that ecosystem? >> Yeah, it's funny because the there's a commonality in the conversation that we're having um about different assets. I think Ethereum, the asset, I think David from Banklist wrote a really excellent post uh about this. It it ended up being what many people wanted it to be, which you know, it does have some like moneyiness properties. Um, but for whatever reason, the foundation and a lot of the writing about it doesn't really want to own that narrative. So, you know, they're writing about this like credibly neutral layer on a multi-

you decade horizon and sort of building towards that. But it's like, you know, you look across a hundred, you know, massive stakeholders within Ethereum and every one of them is telling you a different story about what the asset is, what the long-term mission of the network is. And so it's pretty obvious it's been five years now. The market simply doesn't know how to value that into the future. So you know, ETH assets is not something that we own as a firm or that I own personally. We have zero exposure to it because I just can't tell you what the story is today and I can't tell you what it's going to be in three years. And you know, I don't know who's going to win this like wrestling match between, you know, the folks who want it to be a money asset, who want to embrace

institutions and, you know, securing trillions in value, uh, and the people who want it to be sort of this utopian world computer style thing. And what would Ethereum need to do to um you know I guess the tokconomics or or some other aspect of you know how Ethereum fully is constructed for you to say we at Sixman Venture should own this. >> Yeah. So I I get into tricky territory uh no financial advice. Um but you know I think what we're seeing is assets that are financialized uh hype you know we could talk about that later being a good example of this is one that the markets understand better. Uh and you need to it's pretty clear that you have to have

a clean single narrative um on what that story is and what people are buying to get enough stakeholders to get enough flows with enough consistency over time um that you know people can get confidence in holding these assets and Ethereum hasn't done that over the past few years uh nor have candidly any of the other smart contract uh L1's general purpose L1's >> and so Salana is usually the competitor that's talked about most frequently, you know, in comparison to Ethereum, it's obviously faced like an even kind of more challenging year so far. I think you're more bullish on Salana there at this moment, you know, looking at changing the tokconomics on that. You

know, what are your thoughts there about why it's down and where it could go from here? >> Yeah, so I it's a cleaner story as to why Salana is underperforming. uh uh Salana, you know, the foundation and key sto key stakeholders I did do a better job I believe than you know the Ethereum stakeholders in terms of you know honing in on kind of a true north in Rev real economic value you sort of fees uh that acrue you know to people who hold the tokens and and stake them uh for Salana has just been a performance issue so you know activity fees peaked uh I believe early 2025 five and have been in a downward uh you know downward trend since and you know so has the price of

Salana. Uh the activity was prompted pro, you know, driven, you know, largely by uh memecoin activity and other really speculative activity on chain. Uh that involved, you know, lots of different uh you lots of trading, lots of price ins insensitivity, lots of retail flow, you know, people willing to pay high fees. and uh there just hasn't been enough durable economic activity in other areas to replace the decline in memecoin volume. I think there's a good chance that you know we'll see that activity in the future and Salon is embracing you know a bunch of different narratives and has I think more shots on goal than

maybe other ecosystems and you know is going after the areas that they've historically been weak you know perpetuals being the big one you see foundation and other stakeholders talking about but there's not proof to the market today that you know the teams building on top of Salana are going to execute in that areas or that Salana's uh L1 one will become performant enough to support them, you know, at kind of like close to centralized exchange levels of performance. Uh so if that is to happen, you know, it's it it could be an undervalued asset at some point, but you know, you need to start seeing some of the uh activity that people are promising uh start to manifest and materialize. So for salon is just a

performance thing in my in my perspective. >> All right. So now let's talk about the other linear one that just I think has really been taking up all the air in the room this year and that's hype. And it's basically, you know, pretty much one of the only crypto assets that's been up here to date. But we've just had news in the last week that shows it's about to face some tough competition. Pers are coming on shore here in the US. Um both Khi and Coinbase had news on that front. How do you think Hyperliquid can kind of navigate this moment where it's going to face, you know, upcoming competition? Do you see a way for it to remain no KYC and still be as dominant?

>> Uh, the no KYC market is enormous. So, the answer to that is so I don't know about the word dominant, but do I think that that Hyperlid could continue to grow if they could only legally operate outside the US? And the answer to that to in my perspective is is obviously yes. I mean just look at Binance you know by far the biggest exchange in the world has never been able to have a successful USbased business of any real scale. Uh I understand by the way the analogy is not perfect because there is KYC you know on Binance but you can operate XUS and be really really large.

uh so to the extent that that so to the extent that they you know could operate you know with KYC in some manner in the US that probably is like you know unpriced you know potential upside but I don't think like the default case that the people who are pushing flows towards hype today is like hey you know next year US citizens are going to be able to trade you know 50x per uh in on hyperlquid >> and Um, do you do you think it can navigate the competition? You you just feel like they're separate markets. Is that what you're saying?

>> Yeah, it's like tether versus circle. That that's my like base case. And uh the the base case is that the you know the tether analogy can be really really large. You know, the L1 Tron is extremely valuable, more valuable than a lot of more hyped L1s. Just anything in crypto that sort of like non KYC or international market is is really really significant in size. And so the bigger question for me is can they continue to add higher and higher quality assets to the platform which is you know what's driven most of the growth over the last 6 to9 months right can they add you know the next oil can they you know maybe become the home to the largest compute markets you know can they add more and more preo stocks which have just taken

off so uh really to me the hype question is one of asset quality and liquidity and they continue to outperform on that front and you know obviously they're now adding, you know, HIP for outcome markets uh to get into the prediction markets type space and, you know, so they're just, you know, growing their markets and um and then can they attract folks to build on top, build interfaces to market, you know, so that their costs, you know, to attract more liquidity and users don't grow, you know exponentially. >> All right, so in a moment we're going to look at Mike's final thoughts on the L1 wars, but first we're going to take a quick word from the sponsors who make the show possible. Fidelity has been researching and investing in blockchain

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[music] Again, that's unchanged crypto.com/bits andbbits spelled vips. Back to my conversation with Mike. So, we just talked about ETH, Saul, and Hype individually, but I was curious to hear you talk about how you think what well, first of all, whether or not you think they really do compete with each other, and if so, how you think the competition will play out. >> Yeah. So, so they do compete with each other. Um, they compete for liquidity, they compete for, you know, asset issuance and, uh, they compete for, you know, trading volume. So, there's no question if Soul Salana and Ethereum

are, I think, more similar than, you know, Ethereum and Hyperlquid or Salana and Hyperlid. Um, and it's it's a weird type of competition because Slan Ethereum are both focused on becoming a general purpose blockchains with use cases that go beyond. Hyperlid's focus on becoming the house of all finance. Uh, you know, there's stablecoin issuance, payments, you know, all the kinds of like quoteunquote web 3 type things that exist uh on Salana and Ethereum. So, you know, they're playing and and basically on Salon Ethereum, they're being valued on the activity of the apps built on top of them uh much more than hyperlquid which is basically

kind of like a full stack protocol where you know basically most of the volume goes through their owned you know their own sort of front end and and sort of the values of the entire ecosystem is captured there. Uh, so it's tricky. I think, you know, I think Salana and Ethereum would benefit far more from, you know, not really talking about competition with Hyperlid and really just focusing on the features and attributes that make them great and why uh builders should build on their layer 1's uh because ultimately they're downstream of that developer activity.

And candidly, they're not really fighting on the developer side. uh I mean they are but but I think on the margins uh so yeah Salana and Ethereum need the next great apps to be built on top of them and the aperture or the breadth of where those apps could come from are much broader I believe than Hyperlid um so you know I think Hyperlid's not I mean they're competing with them but only in the sense of like they just they just seem to be mostly a heads down they're really small team sub 20 people from what they say and they have a roadmap and they don't really share too much about it too far in advance and they execute against it.

It's a company so it's just like hard to say. So so basically they're not like competing at in the sort of business traditional strategy sense but again they're competing for liquidity mind share to some extent for you know where developers are going to build and then attention in the markets. So um you know Salana and Ethereum compete [clears throat] more directly but what you're finding more and more is it's it's less like direct competition in the sense that like BlackRock is going to issue their new tokenized funds on both Salon and Ethereum. So again you're really just you know they start to become substitutes for one another um in the end user and consumer and who's going to bring that liquidity. So that's really what everybody's competing for.

>> Yeah. The way I view it is basically Ethereum kind of comes in it and is sort of like the IBM where you know that saying nobody's going to fire you for putting something on Ethereum but there are a number of technical issues there just even starting with something as basic as the block time but then also kind of this whole L2 situ there's just certain things where on a tech side you know it sort of makes you wonder okay in the future you know where is this going to go and that's where maybe Salana has a little bit of an edge in terms of you know things like the block time but then of course they don't have the track record you know the the length of time just you know Ethereum's 100% uptime that is just sort of an unbeatable

metric um and so essentially you know what you have is like because we're in this moment of adoption that's almost why like you see people keeping the door open but um but yeah like what really ends up winning the race at this point is sort of um anybody's [snorts] guess. >> Yeah. And and you my sort of last point Ethereum would be a lot of what is cited as their advantages like things like TVL you know people often still mention are like really legacy things you know capital that's been there that people you know made money off um you know being on Ethereum from many many years ago by the way in the same way that many people are getting rich you know on hyperlquid today you know through their

airdrops and taking on more positions and provide liquidity in the markets um but in terms of you know net new what's happened over the last three or four years, there's no question that, you know, the the rate of change on on Salana has been faster than Ethereum. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, we'll have to see. Well, so in general, you know, we're because we're at this stage where it's sort of like this, you know, real adoption phase. People are, you know, seeing this moment where, you know, tokens are getting shaken out basically. I'm sure you saw yesterday, um, Charles Hoskinson sort of pieced out and, uh, people are tweeting about Cardono. Um and [clears throat] I I see it's at number 16 which um in my you know book is

that's a good sign to see that you know these sort of zombie chains are finally getting shaken out. Um I know in general you're bullish on tokens with value acrruel. So you know there's a number of different mechanisms there. Which mechanisms do you like or you know which tokens do you think have made that um you know setup work? >> Yeah. So the I think the two most important things are uh one that you this is the crypto and these are viewed as protocols and so having the mechanism for value acral be programmatic is really really important right so hyperlquid's uh mechanism for value acrruel is you know 90% 97 sorry 97% of the fees go back into buying back the token and you know theoretically

long-term burning the tokens uh the so being programmatic is important. Uh the second is being uh consistent in communications. Like it's no different than it's not only about the token mechanism, but it's about how you tell the story to the public. So you know to be consistent uh and professional about how you talk about, you know, your product roadmap uh that you value investors who are investing in your ecosystem, you know, the folks who are staking and the folks who are building around you. um and that there's a mission, you know, bigger than just the team, right? That hey, we're doing this together. So, storytelling is a big part

of it. So I like uh tokens where the uh investor sorry where the leadership is is telling a consistent story and uh you know so I think program those are like the two biggest things to me and a lot of people would disagree and say that you know token buyback should be discretionary and uh that's confusing um and and it's it's we've seen it I don't want to name specific projects but ones where they were discretionary and they stopped buying or they changed plans and um you just this is an industry where the default is not to trust the people building the businesses. It's just the pattern says that you're going to have a higher incident of, you know, fraud, abuse, grift, sketchiness than in traditional business markets. Uh, and so

that things that have discretion are going to get valued less than the things that don't. Um, the last thing I'll say on your value, there has to be some balance. uh there has to be some uh you know if you're doing a 100% buybacks like our portfolio company Pump was doing for a long time you you you have to give people confidence that you're actually investing into the future growth of the business. So they modify their uh buybacks from being uh discretionary. They changed them to programmatic for a year and they set it at half the protocol revenue such that you know there's a credible uh statement that they're investing in the protocol um in new products they introduced with today and in pump go and uh so you want to you see that there's

going to continue to be reinvestment in the business uh because you know it's funny mentioning uh the Cardano example if it's just purely the protocol and the foundation needs to discretionary You know, you've seen this with Ethereum uh sell tokens or continuously be selling on secondary at discounts to folks to fund operations. You have this token that it just get starts to get really messy. Like where are the funds going to come from? I think Cardano's had that problem like like Charles is really wealthy. There's a lot of people who've made a lot of wealth in that ecosystem, but it's uh seems to be underinvested in today. Uh, so I have a hard time with tokens where I feel like, you know, the only source is just like this allocation that was pre-mined and granted for the

for the um protocol to function and operate because you run into these weird incentive uh and you know lack of fund issues. >> All right, so now let's talk about the real world perfs sector because that has been so interesting this year. You know, it started with those crude oil pers on um hyperlquid trading based on events happening on the weekend. you know, involving the Iran war. Um, obviously recently we've seen that preIPO stocks are getting price discovery on Hyperlquid. To me, this is sort of like glimmers of something that's probably going to be way bigger. I'm curious, you know, where you think all that is going.

>> Yeah. So the biggest thing that we need to do clearly and you're seeing you know the hype token and hyperlquid get rewarded for it is bring interesting assets into you know the crypto markets and you know so bringing them to a place you know onchain where they can be traded you know 24/7 365 you know relatively low cost uh obviously you know no KYC plays a part here um so the ability for folks to trade um not you know with a centralized counterparty is a big deal for for whatever reason they may want to do that. But bottom line is the more high quality assets that we bring on chain, you know, the more sort of all boats are lifted and um we have

now enough proof points that people want to trade these things all the time um and they're comfortable doing it, you know, from a self-custody wallet. So it's uh every ecosystem. I know the Salana Foundation is deeply focused on this, Hyperlquid is, you know, trade.xyz XYZ the the teams are really focused on getting you know new assets issued spun up you know with robust uh you know oracles and pricing mechanisms so that more people can trust these because even with all the trading that you're seeing and the volume you're seeing today you know these are still not you know major institutional venues by any means uh if that does happen you know this becomes really really really big >> yeah yeah I agree um so we also can see crypto and AI I that's going to be a

huge thing. You know, in my opinion, a agents are definitely going to transact more than humans at some point. Um, but you know, where do you see value acrewing in that activity? Like would you imagine it at the protocol level, at a platform level or just generally how do you see all that coming to fruition? >> Yeah, it's a good question. So the the the trend has been you know like the exchange so the so again if salon like the L1s will benefit from activity where people are sort of somewhat price insensitive and will pay fees right so to the extent that you can get more and more trading volume like hyperlquid has a really direct you know value capture model um and again salon has come through rush to the extent that you know

you can get massive trading volumes and these agents trade you know number of trades and strategies more than humans do. Um, you that would be great for uh for fees and I think that's how these L1s are primarily going to be valued moving forward in the future. Um, then you move a layer up the stack to like, you know, to the app layer. It's it's unclear that like exchanges are going to be able to be differentiated like in their value capture, the dexes of the past and things of that nature. Um so I think we're still working through whether you know you can capture significant volume there but where it's been clear that you can capture value is uh through you know frontends right um so if you can prevent present data

certainly like in the memecoin era the frontends were able to capture you know up to 1% per trade sometimes more um so that's an interesting area of exploration uh what the frontends are is is going to change so in terms of like trading you're going to have um I would imagine you products like AI research labs working on financial markets that can help individuals and institutions put on let's say really really complex and performative performance-based you know trades that you know humans aren't able to put on or make me able to put on strategies for example that today the best algorithmic traders put on and if you can do that again that's sort of an interface area based built on top of you know you know models um and uh that's an

area where you could charge me you for that service if I'm able to outperform. Um so anyway we look at like who's touching the end user, the institution and the consumer and then are they providing something of value more than just being the venue to execute like the pure venue to execute? Can they help me with the idea? Can they help me, you know, get better liquidity or tighter spreads, etc. And that's what you're looking for. And I'm so focused on agents and trading because it's actually not clear to me that agents and payments is an incredible business. Um you know we hear a lot about like agentic finance meaning agentic payments but uh you know the incumbents the visas the masterards uh the stripes are moving really really really rapidly and aggressively to

capture the value there. It's uh going to be really challenging for new entrance to outperform the installed customer bases those folks have uh the trust the you know fraud the compliance you know the risk algorithms they have. It's just going to be a real challenge on you know the payments and the sort of non-trading you know speculative side. >> All right. So you know as we've been talking about because crypto is in this adoption moment just everything is getting scrambled right now but it means kind of real things are coming to the four. You know cryptovc is kind of like just an interesting business because it's sort of you know you're sort of looking far into the future and you're trying to figure out what's going to hit the mark. And I'm wondering how this

moment in time where crypto is sort of becoming real or adopted by normies, how that's changed the cryptovc game and how it's um changed just how you even think about investing. >> Yeah. So, a few things have changed, you know, pretty significantly recently, I would say, in like crypto VC u but really in all VC. one is uh the cost to get started on something uh has dropped. You know, you can hire fewer people to to build to you know an MVP um because basically you have like all the world's developers available to you and claude uh or codeex or you know whatever tooling that you want to use

and you can you know even somewhat non-technical people can spin up ideas. So the cost to entry has has decreased quite a bit. Uh I think that you know there's a good chance that that shrinks well either shrinks the preede category or increases the number of preede projects that are out there. So the earliest stage projects but it's going to be really hard to you know weed through you know the signal versus the noise. So you you're basically as a VC at the earliest stages now looking for traction much sooner and proof points that you know somebody could build something that has users that has a little bit like of emergent you know economic activity on top of it. Um so costs have decreased at the same time

like scaling the ability to scale to really big numbers has increased and crypto's always been about that this like massive power law right um how rapidly something like pump grew how rapidly the cycle before that you know something like openc grew uh the biggest thing that cryptos struggle with is are those things sustainable long term uh so um having now been through at the app layer you know multiple cycles I think we're kind of like in our third cycle of app layer and crypto. Um, again, there have been very few multicycle long duration uh businesses that stood the test of time. Most of those have been in DeFi, you know, the DeFi leaders. So, I think that, you know, for crypto VCs, you're you're basically looking at like

what's sustainable behavior. And what you're finding is it looks a lot like um things that have existed in the world before uh but you know, done better because of blockchain rails. So again, always on um cheaper liquidity formation from anywhere. Obviously, no KYC is a big property of a lot of these, accessible to all and yeah, so that's where we're looking. But we're in a time of like massive upheaval. Um you know, most of the world's you venture dollars and private equity dollars, private capitals going into like AI first companies. Um and not just crypto, but anything outside of, you know, pure AI is is somewhat capital starved. So, it's a it's a unique time and and not only

capital, but talent talent starve. So, the you know, you're seeing a lot of the brightest minds. What's interesting, you're seeing a lot of the brightest crypto minds actually do things outside of crypto and succeed. So, these are people who were really early to crypto. They did exceptionally well. They have incredible foresight, uh, generated wealth, built great products, and are now, you know, moving into adjacent industries, right? Even Brian Armstrong, you just announced his multi00 million raise for his longevity firm. So his like side hustle is like a a massive successful unicorn. You see a lot of that uh happening. Um so you know you're also seeing it with the VCs themselves.

So uh most of Paradigm's recent deals to the extent that they're announcing everything that they do you know seem to be in areas uh outside of crypto adjacent to crypto. uh you're seeing a lot of VCs do things in you know power energy compute um you know framework you did a public markets deal and is doing a lot with better.com so you're just seeing a lot of folks expand into areas that seem to be adjacent uh to crypto and I think that's going to continue because um the opportunities are significant the domain expertise that these VCs bring from being on the frontier of crypto and seeing you know new market structure devel develop um

helping to create that an entire new asset class, fastest growing, you know, the last 15 years be created. They're real innovators um both the crypto VCs and the builders and so you can kind of see many of them starting to expand their aperture while keeping their crypto roots and advantages. >> All right, Mike. Well, it has been so um interesting to chat with you and to find out what you're thinking about all this market activity. Thank you so much for coming on Unchained. I >> appreciate it. Thank you so much. Nothing you hear on Unchained is investment advice. This show is forformational and entertainment purposes only, and my guest and I may hold assets discussed on the show. For more disclosures, visit unchainedcrypto.com.

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