Why many crypto investors are losing, and how to fix a portfolio

Transcript

rud GM good morning it's Wednesday February 12th welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show where we make crypto simpler than explaining what your job actually is to your Aunt Kathy I'm your host Jay Hamilton and we are live that's right this is our first live show everybody the milk Road show is now going to be live every Wednesday at 1205 p.m. Eastern on YouTube so grab a glass of milk settle in share your comments because we will take questions at the end of the episode and yeah let's have some fun let's have some fun today it's it's Wednesday CPI came in a little bit

a little bit higher than expected markets reacting though pretty positively we'll chat about that also tomorrow Thursday coinbase has their earnings coming out and Kyle Reed has been calling this the Super Bowl for crypto legit I've never seen KY so excited we're going to dive into coinbase and why he's so excited and what expectations are you can hear him backstage laughing right now uh also guys we we had a sit down with the Milkman earlier this week and he is so sick of seeing crypto investors get getting wrecked he is just tired of it and so we wanted to talk about why so many crypto investors getting wrecked what is going on with their portfolio

allocation and how to fix your portfolio so that you can do well through the rest of this cycle because there's so much opportunity still and then of course we're going to end with one of our favorite questions what's the trade we're going to talk about one of Kyle's highest conviction trades for 2025 before we jump in if you guys are here today throw some comments in let's see it I I can't wait to see the comments I actually can't see the comments I don't know if maybe nobody's commenting maybe that's why it's it's just can you see them is there is there comments happening uh okay before we jump in um guys today's episode is brought to you by our friends at consensus consensus Hong Kong is next week February 18th to 20th and is going

to be one of the best crypto conferences of the year we got a 15% discount code for you if you want to grab a ticket hit the link in the show notes use the code milk road to get 15% off also today's episode is brought to you by crypto.com credit cards one of my favorite credit cards in the crypto economy no annual fees lots of perks loune access so much more check that out in the show notes if you want to hook yourself up with that with that let's bring on Kyle rehead co coowner of milk Road and head of milk Road Pro what is up Kyle what's going on guys I just realized that your video was Private I've moved it public now I can see all the comments I don't know if you can Jay

but the comments are oh now I can see them there we go we got comments what's up somebody yelling open the chat cool so make sure you guys comment now and uh we can check it out but yeah pumped to be here pumped to go live on Wednesdays maybe we'll start to do it every day I don't know we'll see uh but let's do it man let's go okay uh I actually just kind of want to start with um this uh taking a step back from the daily noise and everything happening in the crypto markets uh because Kyle you you were doing you've been having some conversations I mean both of us I think having convers ation with our Pro

Community the milk roog Community friends and a lot of people got wrecked recently by the liquidation and it kind of made us step back and be like okay why are so many people getting wrecked it must be that they're going a little bit too far down the risk curve what what are you seeing and how do we help people fix their portfolios yes so we did a survey to our Pro members uh more than 600 people responded in the survey so thank you Pro members um there's actually quite a lot of of answers so that was pretty cool um so we were excited to see that but when I got to the final question which was basically asking um comparing majors and then non- majors and stable coins what

was your portfolio allocation what I learned was 80% of our Pro members who I think of as probably some of the smartest investors which means these are probably going to be worse numbers for non-pro members but I I don't know I'm just assuming that but 80% of our Pro members have more than 20% of their portfolio in altcoins and a large portion of that 80% was um 50 or more percentage of their portfolio was in altcoins and one of the things that we always teach here at milroad at especially milord Pro is an 8020 role 80% in Majors 20% in alts and the reason is for risk management right um if you saw what happened over the last two

three weeks altcoins got just completely decimated if you were in AI you got smoke down 90% in the last 30 days but this is true of almost everything defi AI dpin I don't care what it was you got smoked what didn't get smoked was Bitcoin actually held up pretty well uh salana was down like 25 maybe 27 I think it got down to which yeah that's bad but that's not 90% okay the difference there is is quite drastic uh coin did quite well eth got smoked but came back I think eth went down maybe like 30 something perc but not not terrible it was terrible but it it came back rather fast whereas a lot of the AI and Defi

and things like went down and then didn't actually have that candle back up um so it got smoked and so one of the things that I I just I want everyone to think about is look at the last couple years that you've been in crypto if your portfolio has been higher than 20% in alts did you actually outperform the majors because my guess is you probably did not and also look at the returns I'm going to share my screen here and I just want to show some of the returns you can get if you're just in Majors because I really need people to start to understand the opportunity that they are literally screwing themselves over if you don't just for example let's go Bitcoin the least riskiest asset in crypto which what usually happens here is people say I don't want to hold Bitcoin because I

want to go more risk I want to punt whatever token because I want to be a millionaire okay and by the way the average portfolio of our Pro members was between 10 and 100K okay so let's say most people want to make a million dollars okay you got 100K I want to get that to a million dollars what's the best way for me to do that well let's just look at the last two years for example okay if you just held Bitcoin in 2023 for the year here's its performance let me just pull up the measuring here Bitcoin went you know from whatever price that was it doesn't really matter what the price is but in 2024 here up 160% okay those are insane gains and I ask anyone did you holding any altcoins your altcoin did you beat 160% I'm going

to tell you right now 99.9% of people unless you happen to hold Bonk that that year you did not beat that okay and then again if we do this in 2024 the same thing Bitcoin went up from you know oops let's go to January I'm at the wrong date here January or sorry yeah January 1st all the way to December 1st of 2024 and we were up about 1 15 % so you had 160 and 150 right that's insane and that's not just so if you think 160 and 150 you might think okay that's 300 and like uh 10% that's so you would go from 100,000 to 310,000 but that's actually not the case right you went 100,000 up to 260,000

okay and then actually no more than that uh you went 100,000 yeah yeah sorry 260% okay and then you did a another 100 and what did I say 50% on top of that so now you're over 500,000 right so you you literally if you just held on and you did nothing more you actually can make incredible gains right uh and the problem is that people don't do that they missed that now even the worst of the and here's the thing if you hold Soul even better like let me just look at soul and we put out a call for soul early January 2023 but everyone wants to get more than Soul they're like okay Soul's good I want the next best thing so they go and buy whatever the heck you know goo or whatever some meme coin on Soul because

they want the beta to Soul but if you were in 2020 let's go back to 2023 January and if you held soul for the year of 2023 a thousand per th% thousand freaking percent. are you kidding me what are you talking about here that's insane and then the next year look it wasn't as good so I know people are upset and that's why they got to go down the risk curve they got to get better than what solded but still if we're in January here and in 2020 25 by the end of it we were at 12% okay these gains are insane and they're right in front of you and they're so obvious because they're the majors they're so so so obvious you don't have to go in the trenches and try to look through the tens of thousands of

tokens that are out there even this look at this eth everyone has said eth is dead for the last three years right and so people want to sell their eth to go buy whatever freaking mem coin even eth man the thing that is dead okay let's look at it if you just bought it let's go January 1 again because that's what we're doing here we want to keep the timeline everything uh even here you were up where's January one in 2024 100% 100% eth went up okay so you had 100K you now have 200k okay and then again let's look at 2024 a terrible year right everyone was so mad at it it was dead the whole year and if you just held eth you went let's see what percent to January 1st where are we here

about 50 no close to 60% and I just need people to understand that is like 60% was three or 4X better than the NASDAQ last year right and this is the thing that everyone in the space is calling dead it just makes no sense and then I ask you guys go check your own portfolio what did your portfolio do in 2023 did it beat the worst the thing that's dead did it beat eth did it go more than 100% And then look in 2024 the thing that was dead all year did it beat 60% I would bet you that if you hold a bag of altcoins and memec coins and other things you didn't even beat eth the thing that got chirped the most out of everyone so guys why is everyone complicating this and making it so much

harder than it is you have the most incredible opportunity which is to average about 100% every year just by holding the least riskiest assets Bitcoin eth Soul coinbase you could even include maybe and you would crush everything and yet and I have been telling you guys this now for two years straight and yet 80% of you still decide to go down the risk curve and get wrecked I just I don't get it it just doesn't make sense to me and then I noticed that we put out a call for example to buy we put out a call a couple months ago to buy some AI tokens and we put it in 1% of our portfolio Okay so if it goes to zero it doesn't matter it's com I don't even think about it I actually only think about Bitcoin Ethan Soul when I go to sleep I don't

think about all these other smaller tokens because there's such a small percent of my portfolio that if it blows up goes to zero it doesn't matter but what I see is people then go and buy that token and put 50% of their portfolio in it and then it goes down 90% and you've literally lost like half of your entire portfolio do you know how hard it is to come back from that like you need the thing to 2x it's it's insane right and so more than 2x so I just think people need to understand risk management just today we just before this I was in a a pro meeting where we were updating our portfolio and I was talking about how I'm so bullish on on sky sky is a $800 billion do market cap right now and one of the comments was if you're so bullish on Sky

why don't you put it to the same percentage share in your portfolio as you do salana and I was like salana is a hundred billion dollar market cap this thing's 800 million the the risk makes it zero zero sense right so my ask to everyone is guys you're literally sitting in one of the greatest opportunities ever being in crypto and you are missing that opportunity by being in all these alts in memec coins so just put 80% of your freaking portfolio in the majors and just accept 100% year I'm so sorry you have to get a 100% a year that is insane right imagine talking to your parents about 100% a year anyway go do that then go with the 20% or less like my portfolio I'm

probably 95% Majors right even though all I'll do all day is look at 95% I'm 95% ma% listen to that I can't get myself to be anymore I I can't get myself to get my altcoin um portfolio to be anymore even though I'm like in this and I understand it so much I still can't do it because the opportunity is just so big to just hold these damn Majors for the next five years and you will literally turn 100K into a million easily like it's not hard to compound that right because you can just average by doing nothing 100% a year in bitcoin's case 160% a year almost you know what I mean like it's it's that easy and so I just I hate I hate to hate to see so many people in here that continue to go and try to punt these

stupid tokens hoping that they're going to make it because the chances that are just so small it really is when you have such an amazing opportunity just holding Majors so I need to like do a PSA maybe every week to people I think like this is what we'll do every Wednesday now we're going live to just say the same thing go by Majors uh I tweet out probably every day now if you're not foll on Twitter I literally tweet out Majors spot zoom out chill that's it right just hold Majors don't leverage them zoom out and forget about these little pullbacks and craziness and then just chill and I promise you you will do better than almost everyone that's my rant and and you'll be less stressed you'll sleep better LED and you won't you won't deplete your Capital base

which is really the the entire objective of investing is to grow your Capital base and when you take big risks and you drop your Capital base it is way you're you're now basically you're you're you're climbing a mountain you're pushing a rock up hill it is much more difficult now I know it happens and I'm not saying you can't get out of it if you got liquidated and you lost a bunch recently okay sorry to hear that but don't this is when you we want to go even more risky right to try to make up for it and that's also very dangerous and I want to Kyle you're not saying don't invest in other tokens like you're not saying don't invest in altcoins or AI agents or mcoins you're just saying

percentage allocation is the key here check just yeah exact it's risk management which is a thing that people in crypto don't get anywhere else you talk to any institution anyone else that's investing in anything they understand risk management they're not going to go all in on some tiny little market cap stock or you know gold miner or whatever they're going to have that as a very small percent and they hope it 100x is we all want the 100x but you don't 100x you never try to 100x your entire portfolio that's just insane that's suicidal right especially when you're in a market where you know this stuff is going up on average over time um just look at this for a second I'm going to share my screen real quick here again and check out check it on my screen right now this is um total crypto

oh this is defi sorry where's total crypto 3 this one here this is your um total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and eth okay look at the draw down that we've had since December it went all the way down if we count the liquidation here to 36% currently you know we're currently sitting at 23% okay let's go to bitcoin right here and Bitcoin went down I don't know a Max of 177% so like what pullback right like almost no pullback it's currently only down 10 so like well all of crypto Twitter if you've been on Twitter

recently everyone is in pain they're all so upset they think the world is ending and everything's so bad even people on our Discord today were like I'm out this is terrible and it's like you're out because your portfolio honestly is just not it sucks you know if you were just holding Majors you'd be all good even if you were holding eth which I know has not done that well and people are upset about that but if you still holding Bitcoin eth and soul you diversify your Majors you're sitting pretty darn good it's just if most of your bags are these alts which you guys got to understand these alts are all like mostly dog right they're brand new companies with with shitty tokenomics and no revenue and it makes no sense to ever do that like Venture capitalists right who do

buy dog stocks and equities in the private field they do this because where there's no revenues and things but they do that because they're buying 10,000 of them right over a number of years and they hope that two of them make it whereas if you have a crypto portfolio of 12 tokens and they're all the dog ones or the ones with no Revenue hoping that they come and get Revenue that's not how it works 99.9% of companies don't end up becoming profitable especially in Tech right and so like VCS will buy that stuff and help these companies try to get profitable but it's because they're buying so many and they just need one to work out and then they've made it right and that's not how it works in crypto though because you're not buying a thousand companies you're buying 10 all of which

will probably not work out according to the odds so it's all just an odds thing that's all Kai we got we got a couple people asking the same question here so I'm going to bring it up now uh people are asking should they sell at a loss right now should they sell their alts at a loss or their I mean basically they're non- Majors is now the time to sell it a loss what would you do if you're down on those types of things I can't tell you guys what to do but if I was less than 80% in Majors right now I would 100% sell it uh and get myself to 80% Majors without a doubt then I could sleep at night and if I was dollar cost averaging I would make sure that I'm dollar cost averaging so that I

remain at least 80% Majors um there's too many people that are still holding bags from last cycle being like I hope this thing comes back and it's like what why why are we doing that it doesn't make any sense just hold the good assets right's another way to think about it just one sec think of the stock market guys right there's thousands of tech companies which ones have actually done well there's like seven of them right it's like Netflix Apple Microsoft like there's not many that actually do well right there's been thousands of tech companies over the last 20 years only a few of them have actually made it and done well gone public and then continued to grow right like even Twitter everyone

loved Twitter that thing went public and never got higher than when it went public right and we all use Twitter right it's like most companies don't continue to grow ever especially once that becomes liquid where the founders can sell and so and the thing with crypto is these companies they don't have to do much they can just get liquid right away and the founders can sell and they don't have any urgency anymore to like keep building right and so like the odds even to get stocks correct are very very very small I don't know why everyone thinks they can do it in crypto it makes no sense because there's way more of them and even worse entrepreneurs right so it's it's crazy okay let's let's go from uh this to some some Investments that you do

like uh and youve said that this Thursday's coinbase earnings report is like the Super Bowl for crypto why do you feel that way uh a few reasons so like right now coinbase is really the only outside of micro strategy like the only um uh crypto company that is in the US that's public right like I know strategy micro strategy it's now called strategy b or strategy or whatever I know that it is as well um but it doesn't really do anything or like talk about the crypto ecosystem it just sort of buys Bitcoin and and then keeps screaming to get more debt and buy more Bitcoin which is cool um but what coinbase does is it really gives you a view of what's Happening

across the entire ecosystem because coinbase is everywhere they've got a wallet they've got a chain they've got the exchange um they've got everything right and so what's cool about coinbase when you listen to them is it really tells you what's happening in crypto uh and I think that and it teaches Wall Street what's happening in crypto and coinbase has their hands and everything usdc and circle right they they're part owners in that as well and so when you listen to their earnings one you're going to hear all about what's really going on in the crypto space what's working what's not and then two if their earnings are up if they've done really well that tells you that crypto is doing really really well right and it tells Wall Street that crypto is doing really really well and I think right now what what makes me so excited about coinbase

one like obviously they're like the one exchange that kind of like continued on after FTX and everything blew up the us there are others Kraken and others and kraken's probably going to IPO this year too um but I think what's exciting about coinbase is that Wall Street has their expectations of what they think is going to happen with coinbase and I'll just share screen here because I have a tweet up of what their um what their expectations are I got it right here which is oh it's I'm already sharing um so what they're thinking or what they're expecting is that the Q4 that's what's coming out here tomorrow is going to be 1.7 in revenue for coinbase um which is it's 84% growth even that is freaking massive and insane I think it's going to be even more probably we're hitting two

billion plus is my sort of guess um now I don't know for sure but my what I think is that analysts don't really get the cyclical growth we have in crypto and so they underestimate what coinbase does especially in Q4 which is when Trump came came in and won and we just had a crazy November and December right where volumes were insane so much retail came in and so I think coinbase is really going to surprise the upside and when that happens it sends a signal to Wall Street like guys crypto is is it's not just Bitcoin going up in price There's real happening here there's a lot of users that came in there was a lot of trading volumes what coinbase is building with their with their uh chain

and base is doing really well and they're generating revenues stable coins are growing through the roof and it's like that's kind of normal to us but most of Wall Street all the institutions they don't really know that and they only learn it every every 3 months when coinbase does their earnings except for the last two years coinbase's earnings have just been okay and so like people didn't really care they didn't notice it too much what what happens is when there's this huge spark like when Nvidia all of a sudden just like their growth went up like 400% in one quarter everyone in Wall Street was like what the hell just happened right this was in like 2020 and then boom Nvidia went on this crazy run and like everyone started learning about Nvidia and like gpus became the thing everyone talked about and I think coinbase is going to start

to set off that same similar type of catalyst where they're like right now we're expecting a 84% year-over your growth according to analyst I think it's probably gonna be 100% And that's going to spark a signal re in Wall Street is like what is going on over there right and they're going to start to look more into the crypto world and I think that's really exciting and I think to go along with this is we're soon going to see Kraken launch their IPO and um Circle launch their IPO and consensus Etc Kraken actually released their earnings yesterday which they've never done they're a private company they don't need to the only reason they would do that is they're trying to Hype up their their value and for their IPO and so what's really cool is coinbase is just one company every three months that Wall

Street learns about crypto soon we're gonna have Kraken and circle Etc and now it's like every month you're going to have a public company teaching you about what's going on in the crypto ecosystem and I think that's going to be huge for legitimacy uh and it's going to be huge for onboarding new capital and new people into crypto so for me I'm just I'm really excited and I hope I I could be wrong maybe they don't two billion Revenue but I think they will and I think these numbers are going to surprise a lot of people yeah it it it feels pretty likely that Wall Street is not able to analyze coinbase why would they be able to right they don't have a ton of experience analyzing blockchains or crypto exchanges like this is all new to them so why would we sit here and say oh

these exactly like these analysts it's not like they've been doing this for decades so and and let's also be real analysts are are wrong on uh on their predictions all the time as are we so it's not like we're perfect but let's assume that analysts are under and let's assume that they're that coinbase Q4 results come in higher what might you expect to see from Price action on coin stock do you think it has a jump what do you what do you what are your thoughts on on coinbase stock for the short term and then yeah one of the things with stocks is they tend to move big on the news of earnings and so if their earnings are up then it's going to jump it's just how it always works like this is why you sometimes see these big 10

20% jumps in like Tesla or whatever because they hit or they missed right and if they hit and they go beyond that generally you see a big jump and so you you could easily see a 10 even a 20% I mean those are normal for coinbase because not only is it this stock that people don't understand but it's also in crypto and so there's obviously a lot of volatility here but um I mean it's going to depend on markets in general right we just had CPI come out today so there's a lot of volatility on the day we had a huge Spike down earlier this morning now I think we're back up as as we're recording I forget I haven't really looked at markets yeah I mean we're back up e up 3% like this morning it was down and everyone was tripping out right so

like what is going on here uh and so coinbase up 2.4% right now um I think if they if they beat expectations we're gonna see a really big jump in uh in numbers cycle predictions for coinbase stock where do you think it goes in 2025 uh yeah in 2025 so part of me is think that we are going to have an extended cycle I came on was it last month maybe and talked about this and I was like my percentage chance of an extended cycle is is kind of growing I think it continues to grow here um and and so I think I don't know where we top here if it's in 2025 or it's an early 2026 um I think coinbase

is going to have just a considerable year uh and we're going to be I mean what are we sitting at now 273 we're going above a thousand it could even get to 2,000 um like I think this is going to be one of the best perform performing stocks yeah I think it's one of the best performing stocks because um you don't just have like so blockchain obviously is in a bull market blockchain Tech and crypto in general and so you have that coinbase is also just been a dominant player in it is continuing to have its you know feet in every hand in every part of crypto um and then you have this regulation that's about to be set in in the US and that's going to bring a lot of crypto back to the US and when you come to the US you typically use

coinbase right uh and coinbase has wanted to do so much they're ready to launch so many things they haven't been able to because of the Biden Administration so you basically are like you're like removing so much like a strangle hold that they've had on coinbase and I think it's going to allow them to just like take off like a rocket ship right um and so I think we're going to see a lot of really we just saw Moro uh so the ability to to um to take it a loan against your Bitcoin and the way that coinbase did it though was not from some Central ized way it was by tapping into to crypto by using Moro right and um and so like you go in the coinbase app like normal but then you can take it alone on your Bitcoin using defi that's that defi mullet and I just think

they're about to do a ton of that and that's going to revolutionize finance that I don't think people really fully understand and so I think coinbase um because I also think coinbase is going to be the driver of moving everything on chain not just Crypton native assets um and using defi I think coinbase is going to revolutionize bringing stocks on chain chain and treasuries on chain and you know gold on chain and whatever and I think coinbase is going to be the spot where you you kind of do it all so there was a really cool tweet that Brian Armstrong put out where he was comparing like if we were a bank we'd be 21st in the US in terms of assets if we were a broker we'd be this if we were this in a payments company we'd be this and he's like what's interesting is we're all

three coinbase is a financial institution that we've just never seen before because there's always been so much regulation in the trafi world but in crypto it it we're going to create a new Financial app in a financial Hub you can call it with coinbase that's just something we've never seen I think as more and more people catch on to that and as they continue to innovate which I think they will um it's just going to drive its valuation like crazy over the next year so I'm really really excited to um to see where they can do now obviously it's not for sure doesn't mean you go 100% in coinbase right uh they need to execute they need to actually launch these things we need the regulation actually you know come in as we think it will in a good way for the US um so things need to happen but if if

they do which I think they will I think coinbase is is set up to do extremely well from that when when you think about um investing in coinbase is that how does how does that fit into your portfolio allocation is that like outside of your crypto portfolio and it's a it's a different portfolio separate or how do you think about it no I think because it's it's got the exposure to crypto you got to kind of like you can't diversify your crypto portfolio by owning coinbase right because if crypto goes to zero so does coinbase now crypto's obviously not going to zero but the reason coinbase is so volatile is because it follows crypto as well right it just happens to have the tech on top of it and like the business that's driving Revenue Etc on

top of it um so it is part of it I consider coin as a major uh and so um when you hold Bitcoin eth Soul as Majors I think if you want to hold coin that's also major I I would do the same so you would include it within your 80% like majority your portfolio uh okay let's love love that and also so bullish on coinbase um let's talk about another let's talk about a non- crypto stock and I I had to bring this up because uh all the time you and I are chatting I mean every day and you're always in my ear about Tesla and how much you love Tesla and how much conviction you have in this trade so I know it's not crypto but I

just had to bring it up because I feel like our audience needs to know more about Tesla and why you have so much I mean look when they always say you know know who to pay attention to and who to listen to and when when you start getting in my ear constantly about something I really want to listen to you so I want to share that with the audience what's what's the what's your conviction in Tesla why are you so excited about Tesla yes so first I want to show a chart on Tesla just to give a bit of context I'm just trying to find I have one with some nice little lines on it and stuff I'm just tring there it is um okay so Tesla has these crazy moves kind of like crypto has these crazy moves

right where it's very cyclical like if you look here 2013 Tesla just had a run like you like like you don't see like you see this in crypto right went from like you know under two bucks to freaking $20 right so like 10x in a year not even half a year it's crazy and then it did nothing for a while and then if you guys remember back in like 2019 2020 this thing went from 12 bucks all the way up to $300 right and the reason why it has these kind of moves is not because like its revenues went so much more it did it picked up and fundamentally it got better but it's it's kind of like what happens with crypto and Bitcoin is like people start to realize what this thing is back here everyone just valued it as a as a car

company they're like okay they're building different cars that are EVS right and I think around here they're like oh EVS are actually going to be pretty cool and like that makes and so like it got reevaluated not as a car company but as a nextg car company as an EV then I think what happened here in 2019 2020 when people realized oh this thing can actually produce cars it can do it cheaper it's EV was people realized this thing not just an EV car but it's a self-driving car right and so that's taking the car game to a whole another world what I think's happening now and this chart here by the way is an inverse head in shoulders which typically what you do is you measure from the bottom to the line here and you just just kind of put it and it goes

from the bottom of it and it usually follows it not exactly on the line like it did it was actually following it so closely I was like oh my God it's gonna hit exactly it um it usually takes a while to play out okay but it's it's done extremely extremely well and I've been calling Tesla ever since it was down here saying this thing is is an absolute beast and it's already ran from like I don't know it was around 180 I think when I was calling it we're sitting at 343 just a month ago or so it was almost 500 bucks okay so this thing has already been on a good run but I think it's got a lot more the reason why I'm so bullish on Tesla is everyone here is so excited about Ai and I think what you guys got to

understand is that the real king of AI like what AI really does is its ability like chat Bots are cool those are fine okay but what ai's endgame is is to be the brain for robots right it's to allow physical things to move in space and that's going to change our world more than anyone can even even like understand right it'll change the way we drive it'll change the way factories work it'll change the way we transport Goods it'll change the way we have people come and help out at our house whether it's like a maid or a butler right if everyone just all of a sudden has one um it's going to change the way we build homes It's Gonna Change absolutely everything okay when you have an artificial brain inside of a physical

thing and those could be in the form of a robot like a humanoid robot it could be in the form of a car uh a train a transport truck whatever right and that is what what Elon and Tesla is leading right now is the charge in basically putting artificial intelligent brains inside of physical robots it starts with the cars right which they already have full fully self-driving and again people price this thing as a car company but it's not like they're about to create they're about to disrupt Uber like no one's ever heard of because when you have a car that doesn't require gas and doesn't require oil changes and doesn't require a driver and it has a fleet of cars all around the United States or the

world that could just drive people around what do you think it will cost to use your Tesla Uber instead of an Uber right when I pay an Uber to go across the city it cost me$ 20 $30 because I got to pay for the labor of the human and I got to pay for gas those are the biggest costs when you have a Tesla that has no human and no gas it's going to cost you like five bucks or two bucks it's going to take the cost of Transportation down so much that the world will completely change you won't own cars anymore why would you own a car when you can get across a big city for $2 instead of $100 right it makes zero sense you would never do it unless you're going to let your car work for you and go and drive people around and

make money that way that's a new thing right but then you also think about how they're disrupting and by the way it's getting very close to that point fully self-driving already exists you do need to like hold onto the wheel still but like it already drives and they they just released uh last month the the average I'm trying to remember the numbers exactly here basically I don't remember the exact numbers but fully self-driving Tesla cars are 16 times safer than humans driving cars okay 16 times and we're still just at the early stages of this like these cars they collect data from all the cars that are out there there's like millions and millions of Teslas out there right now and every time those cars drive it gets more data which feeds that AI which gets better at driving humans don't do that

we get worse at driving as we get older because we get more tired and we drink right uh and we have kids that are distracting us in our cars and so humans actually get worse over time and these cars get better and so if you want to think about what AI is really going to do it's it's being the brain for these physical things that are going to transport and move around and so one you have Tesla is so far ahead of every other company in terms of its AI capabilities fully self-driving capabilities no car is even close Google with weo not even freaking close because it doesn't have remotely enough cars there so it has no data if you guys remember we've talked about AI a bunch the best AI just means more and more data needs more data more gpus Tesla has the most of all that okay and so it's

got Network effects no one's ever going to beat it it's going to just dominate in that world I think the next few years Teslas are going to be driving themselves all over the world and that's going to be a game changer okay so that's one thing the next thing they've already got going is the humanoid robots right so I think by the end of this year they will I think they're UNS scheduled to create 100,000 or 150,000 humanoid robots and they plan to double that every year after that and humanoid robots are going to make their way into every company every Factory every home and again who can compete with Tesla on that no one because what does Tesla have the AI the data from its cars the data from Twitter right and and so like no company can compete on spatial data not

even close than than Tesla and so it just takes the the artificial intelligence it has and the data it has from Tesla puts it in the brains of these robots these humanoid robots and boom they've got robots that now are smarter than everyone else both from Twitter and from Tesla cars right and so there's just no company that can even come close to competing with that and so when I think of investing in the AI future in the robotics future to me Tesla is the most pure player you can possibly get and it just has no almost no competition and so I just think the problem with Tesla right now is like um and I mean it's done extremely well it's up like how much in the last year if you want to do those I think it's up more than all all crypto is in 2024 like let's just check

here it started let's just check where's January here and we went up to we went up yeah 160% so it performs just like Bitcoin right and yet it's a stock worth I don't know what over a trillion dollars right it's it's hard to find that but again this is investing in Majors that are real winners this is how Tech usually works when something's winning it generally continues to win uh and so anyway Tesla's my like AI robotics bet and I just I don't see it losing at all it needs rates to come down so that more people buy cars right because it is still a car needs to sell cars that's how it gets the data uh and so as rates come down more people will buy cars and this thing's going to go continue to go through the roof so it's having a pullback right now because

rates haven't come down but I think it's just a great absolutely great buying opportunity and again one more thing with Trump taking over and the administration changing regulations this is also something that Tesla's been help back on there's a lot of things stopping AI stopping fully self-driving cars stopping robotics when all those regulations get improved or the things holding back get pulled away Tesla can flourish just like coinbase can and so for me it's like coinbase is the best Pure Play bet on American crypto succeeding and uh coin bases sorry and Tesla is the best Pure Play bet on AI and Robotics succeeding which Trump's main goal is for Tech to flourish in the US and so just follow

what Trump is and also elon's freaking in the White House the guy that how can you not bet on that you know there's just too many things anyway Jay I can't hear you right now oops I was I was muted I was making a joke about how Elon sleeping on a cot in some in some corner of the Oval Office white it's crazy uh what's interesting me about both coinbase and Tesla is uh they they're they're misunderstood exponential tech companies and so you have these very successful companies that are misunderstood by the a lot of the analysts and a lot of the

public and then and then you have all of these Tailwinds as you said of Regulation and the new new the Trump government and I mean and just Elon the Elon effect on the coinbase side that really set it up well what any any predictions for Tesla for for the future so in terms of price I don't know I think it's going to be I mean again it's sitting at 343 this thing's going to a th000 for sure by I think probably the end of this year we'll see that seems a bit crazy but in the next year to two years let's say I think in the next three to five years Tesla is the most valuable company in the world um and so that's my main prediction Tesla is not one that I'm like trying to sell

I'm just holding this one long term I continue to buy until something changes but like right now the only changes are just more bullish things for Tesla because it continues to just outpace everybody um and so it's not really like um not like crypto where I think I mean it will have its Cycles it's very volatile as well don't get me wrong but I'm not like trying to take some profits at a certain point I might we'll see how things go it obviously depends on price action but I'm more like Tesla I think long term is just going to be the most important company in in the world uh okay before we wrap Kai I just want to address a couple questions that we got throughout the show guys as as I said earlier this is our first live show we're super excited to be going live so

if you have any questions keep throwing them in because we'll make sure every time that we are live that we get to them uh and few people asking about the CPI print that came out today uh thoughts on the CPI print yeah so um CPI was up I think 0.1% or whatever year over year uh to to 3% and look here's what I would say let go to true flation I just want to pull up another chart so one thing to understand about CPI is it is it is data that um the government or the agencies put together that is is quite old uh it's lagging and it's doesn't have a ton of data to it um and true flation which is

basically this onchain way of measuring CPI but basically what it does the onchain part is not the important part it's millions of data points that are live feeds that they combine they do an algorithm it shows you what actual CPI is across the US and it's currently sitting at around 2% okay and it's tanked over the last uh over the last week and so CPI didn't do that here but I think when you look at this here's what's really happening in terms of the economy and so I'm not totally concerned one it only went up 0.1% it's 3% that's not a high inflation rate right like that's not that bad but everyone was kind of screaming and getting getting scared about it and I think that's because you have recency bias from back in 2021 when all of a sudden inflation went up it went went up to like 10%

right and that scared a lot of people I'm getting some feedback are you getting that Jay is that just no no you sound sound sound loud and clear man okay it's kind of Gone Away now anyway um people had this this bias and I think people again every time it ticks up at all they're like oh my God we're going to 10% it's all over right and that's just not the case we're not we don't have those issues that we had back in 2020 and 2021 when we shut down economies and so like 3% is fine the other thing I think people need to remember is we're at a stage in the business cycle I think we talked about this on another episode where the ism is is heading up and it's past 50 which means we're in the part of the business cycle where we have like expansion in

the economy the US is actually very strong us doesn't need to print a ton of money to stimulate its economy its econom is actually pretty solid and so usually in in solid parts times when the econom is doing well um you you don't need to print and inflation tends to tick up just a little bit because people are buying things right people are consuming things a good thing and so I know everyone's like well but then there's no liquidity we need liquidity and you got to remember that liquidity can come from the rest of the world doesn't have to come from the US 2017 we had a huge bull market in crypto yeah Jay I think you have a lot of noise yeah um in 2017 we had a huge bull

market and the US didn't really stimulated at all that all came from China and other countries right it didn't come from the US and so I think we're in a world where the US is strong it's only going to get stronger because it's dollar is doing really good they're removing regulations they've got these tariffs that they're using as a negotiation tool they've got all the tech flourishing there they're going to crush it over the next little bit and they're they're firing a bunch of people in their government and so like yes they're still going to need to print they need to refinance their debt but they don't need to do any kind of printing like like China does or Japan does or other countries do because they're actually crushing it and so people need to try to separate and not just say I have to see the US go to zero

interest rates and print a bunch of money we don't need to see that actually the US can just have a normal business cycle and they they can be fine but China and Japan and probably Canada and a bunch of other countries they're going to need to lower interest rates as they already are they're going to need to print a bunch of money and that's our Global liquidity going up and that's your Bitcoin and all these assets going up and in that world you want to hold Tech because Tech and crypto because those are what do well from Global liquidity going up but more importantly you want to hold us Tech because the US is strong and so Tesla coinbase your perfect assets to be holding in this kind of scenario over the next year or two um so not really worried about CPI at all to be honest 3% is fine and I

think with all the tech it the tech that's coming in the inovation that's all deflationary pressures right um firing half the freaking govern government is deflationary as well so just I don't know I'm not very concerned about that now yes I just see a comment here the US does have a ton of debt so they're not scot-free here they're not just all good they do need to refinance their debt they still will bring rates down because they need to refinance their debt will it go to zero no um but it probably comes lower than it is here today will they print some money yes will they call it QE probably not right they'll use other means of printing money um and so they'll figure it out but the game is changing a little bit for the us at least right now uh but that's okay because the game is still

the same for every other country in the world and that's where our liquidity will come from and I think people miss that K just just throwing out bangers today just nailing it man truly appreciate your levelheaded view uh and really coming in with such great takes for everybody uh guys this has been an absolute awesome show I mean first first time going live today uh so great to have you guys all show up if you if you're listening to this not live which I think most of you will because most of you probably didn't know we were going live because we didn't really announce it because we just kind of wanted to trial it out we're going to be going live every Wednesday 1205m Eastern from now on and if you guys like it we might even go live more often than that if you

show up you can in the show smash the like or whatever it is because that's what shows us to more people no don't drink milk use your finger on your mouse to go and click like or subscribe or whatever because when we do that and we're live that's what gets it to more people and that's what we need and that's what will allow us to keep doing it keep doing it live truly truly appreciate all of you guys being here uh we will be back again tomorrow not live but we'll have the daily episode for you guys uh let us know what you think if if you're commenting after the show we do read the comments and we always try to respond to everybody so you have any questions let us know if you're not pro you might want to sign up for pro as I mentioned uh

earli in the show uh next this coming week is consens is Hong Kong and we got a discount code if you guys want to be there 50% off hit the link in the show notes use the code milro to get 50% off for consensus Hong Kong also shout out to our friends over at crypto.com one of my favorite cards in the crypto space if you guys want a crypto credit card you're gonna want to check out the crypto.com card link is in the show notes thank you so much to our sponsors for supporting us and making this show possible thanks for listening in everybody have a wicked awesome day as always if you like