Why crypto holds up amid geopolitical shocks: CoinFund's Christopher Perkins

Transcript

We're facing this massive stress and crypto's done relatively well. Uh is it a coiled spring? What's going to happen after, you know, this lets up and how it lets up? It could be in many different ways. What's up everybody? It's LJ said here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show where the world feels like it's breaking and somehow the markets are still near all-time highs. What the heck? Today is March 19th, 2026. And something does feel kind of weird in the market, right? Both crypto and of course the broader stock and everything else market. There's an impending collapse if oil pushes higher, but risk assets aren't really reacting to that yet. And maybe there are some historical parallels out there that could tell us how this may play out that we could use as a lesson to see and to frame what exactly is going on in

geopolitics and how it affects our dear crypto tokens. Today, we've got Chris Perkins, president at CoinFund to talk about all this and whether we should expect a massive market driven sell-off sometime soon. And if we have time at the end, we'll even find time to talk about hyperlquid and prediction markets. Two of my favorite topics when it comes to discussing crypto. Today's episode is brought to you by Sherland, trade real estate like stocks, Nexo, earn interest, borrow and trade crypto, and Ford's X, your idol crypto's worst nightmare. Chris, welcome to the show, man. >> LG, how are you today, man? >> Uh, I feel all right. I mean, I I every day I wake up thinking there's going to be some catastrophic red candle, man.

I'm on the west coast, so I wake up and the market opens like right away and I'm just I just shaking with my coffee, but it hasn't hasn't really happened. Like the little crypto pump bump came back, but it's not that bad, right? How do you feel? >> First thing I do in the morning, I wake up, I go to Telegram, and I and I click on this this channel I follow called Defender Dome, and I scroll through it and see everything that like happened overnight and try to get a sense of like how is this war uh progressing? Are we, you know, how is it going to come out? How's it going to impact markets? Um, then I check oil prices and and see what's going on there. Um, and of course, if it's the weekend, I go to Hyperlid. Yeah, it's just a really

really interesting time for our markets and I look forward to unpacking it today. >> Hold on. So, what Wait, what did you what's that name of that channel? >> Thunderdome. >> Defender Dome. >> I'm obsessed with it. Yeah, it just clicks off everything that's happening and uh and so that's how I >> You are You're an ex-Marine, correct? You're an ex-Marine. This is this is this like a military channel? Is this some kind of secret back channel we don't know about? >> It's an open source intelligence channel. I am not an ex-Marine. I am a Marine. Once a Marine. >> Oh, you are a Marine currently. Okay. >> No, no. Like it's once you're a Marine, you're always a Marine. So, uh that's how we talk about it. Yeah.

>> Okay. Got it. Okay. Okay. Is this But this is not this is not just for Marines only. >> No. No. >> Okay. Anybody can access it. Defender Dome. Okay. So, so wait, what was in what was in Defender Dome this morning? Uh it it showed uh you know various strikes that both the Iranians would would would make and also the US. Um looks like you know we now set off what we have called A10s which are these amazing aircraft that they keep trying to get rid of that are very good at various things and they're starting to light up um some of the small air uh small watercraft that are laying mines and causing havoc in the street of Hormuse. So yeah, just try to get a feel for the for the for the the heartbeat of the war like what's going on. Um that

helps inform just just my view. So, I just want to do a quick pause to tell you guys about what's going on at Milk Road right now. Since the start of the year, we have been completely rebuilding Milk Road Pro, which we promoted all the time, but now it's actually significantly different. Now, Milk Road Pro is actually a set of analyst portfolios where you can see in real time with John, Kyle, Martin, Vincent, Melvin, what they're trading and how they allocate. Some of those calls are already popping off and only pro members can see them. We have a lot of loyal listeners like you guys. And to celebrate this launch and for you guys to get a peek at it and to decide whether you like it or not, Milk Road

Pro is actually just a dollar for the next 14 days. So, if you go sign up right now, you'll get two weeks unlimited access to it. You can see all these portfolios. You can see if this approach is right for you. All you have to do is pay a dollar. It's literally nothing. You can get the offer right now. It's good until March 24th. and the link is in the description. And honestly, I hope to see you in there cuz I'm super excited about what we built. >> Feels like you're trying to get a little bit ahead of the headline there, too. It feels like by seeing that kind of stuff, you'll you'll be able to see what gets published maybe later in the day or later in the week. >> Thousand% like it's instant. Yeah. >> Okay. So, let's let's let's actually dive into the market. I feel like you

are kind of positioning this as you know kind of when we were chatting before and some of the notes you sent through and some of the stuff you've been tweeting on on other shows too is that you're saying that that it's it feels kind of strange that despite all this despite all this uncertainty right major conflict major obviously a lot of scares of a bigger conflict it's weird that the stock market is still near all-time highs it hasn't like cratered right so is that why is that why is that in your opinion Chris >> yeah and not only the stock market but the crypto market has shown a lot of resiliency. Um I think going into this stress it was largely oversold for for a number of different reasons. You know I think the market was still reeling if you know way back from 1010 retail got

burned. But like when you step back I think there's some very very positive long-term things happening for the crypto market like it or not. And that's we've entered this world of real politic and as you know this Trump's come forth and he's said listen America first uh crypto capital of the planet but against that backdrop you're seeing a real deterioration of trust within the international community and a real focus on real politics you know putting tariffs on on on allies holding them accountable and so people are now operating in their self-interests and you know when you start seeing this trustless permission less environment happening. H really sounds like an asset class that I know and I love. And what

happened was I think in the beginning um you know we we really you know took a lot of very aggressive actions uh on liberation day a lot of the countries around the world are like gosh we need to start decoupling from this postworld war II order and we got to start decoupling from the dollar and so you know what maybe I'm going to sell my treasuries I need to to diversify. I'm going to buy gold. I'm going for gold, right? And we saw gold take off and then all of a sudden all the Bitcoin maxis are like, "Oh no, what happened? Um what about my digital gold?" And the fact is that that the governments that are buying um gold, they are, you know, they're central bankers like 70 80 years old. They weren't ready for for Bitcoin.

But those fundamentals never really changed, right? And so against this backdrop now, you know, you turn to the United States and God, I I know Chairman Celig very well. I know Atkins very well and the fundamentals for institutional adoption are are in improving every single day. We saw the SEC come out with the taxonomy and we could talk about clarity a little bit, but like the conditions for institutional adoption couldn't be greater. And so while retail, you know, got burned, they got scared, gold goes up and and burned by by 1010, they pulled back a little bit.

They'll be back. Um, but these institutions are slowly slowly slowly marching. And yeah, Genius Act comes out and and that's really interesting too because while the world is decoupling, governments are decoupling, trustless environment, real politic, there's still insatiable do insatiable demand for the US dollar amongst the people all over the world because again they don't trust their governments either. And so when you're sitting in a developing country um or maybe not a non-developing a developed country, you're like, hm, I probably should be holding on to some dollars as a store of value and as a hedge for myself.

>> And so I expect for stable coins to to be moving forward. Now the other like major um impetus and catalyst for our markets is this whole tokenization idea. And you know yesterday NASDAQ uh put out a rule that was or the SEC and NASA put put out something around just we're seeing the conditions for tokenization to move very quickly forward. Um but what does this all mean? Uh whether it's per markets whether it's tokenization markets we're in the world of 247 markets now like you can't ignore that.

And you know, if you want to operate and be successful in a 24/7 environment, you got to turn to crypto. You don't have a choice. And so, like we were talking about, when when Trump invades Venezuela on a Friday night, when he when EP Operation Epic Fury happens on a Saturday night, I'm a fiduciary, right? I have LPs. I have to be able to to risk manage them, risk manage my exposures. I have to use 247 markets. And so when you bring all this together, sentiment's really bad. Fundamentals continue to improve, that's a really, really good long-term investing environment. Now, is there going to be volatility?

Absolutely. Um, so Israel bombs an Iraqi an Iranian oil field. The Iranians get pissed and bombi gas field. Like this is going to cause near-term liquidity. But >> when you step back, um, yes, watching the price of oil. Yes, you're watching the the divergence between WTI and Brent. Brent is the international uh standard for oil. It's over $120 or whatever. Um but it's diverging. Um when you step back and you think about this whole America first regime, why haven't the markets like tanked here? Because we're self-sufficient with our energy and we can we can it it's kind of um muting the blow for a period of time.

It's not going to be sustainable over the long course because eventually, you know, this these issues and you're you're seeing fertilizer markets get impacted. You're seeing all different like second and third order issues because the straight of Hormus is really important. Um, but generally speaking, the US because of our resiliency right now, particularly with oil and energy, it's been able to to mute that uh that impact. But gosh, I was out with uh some friends visiting from China this morning. Asia's hurting. you know they get they get like 80% Asia gets 80% of their oil out of the straight of Hormus and so it's really you're seeing it impact there more and more what does that mean that means they get even more you know angry with some of these United

States actions so that decoupling that trustlessness starts even exacerbating further again that leads that's a very good condition for crypto in the long term >> do you what's so what's the in all this what is the case for crypto is there a case for crypto because I think you had also mentioned at perhaps a lot of um places that may be in peril in some kind. So the whole region which has a ton of money, you know, they have a lot of cash and they may need to flee, they may need to move, they may preemptively make those moves. Um is that something where they would stack Bitcoin and then get out of the country?

>> Yeah. So, so the case for crypto in in a trustless world, wherever you are, Bitcoin will store value, right? And so that that that isn't absolutely going to drive demand no matter what. stable coins. If you're anywhere in the world, are dollars a better store of value than perhaps any other asset right now? Yes. That's going to drive demand. Stable coin demand um obviously is good for Ethereum and all the other layer ones as well. So, that's absolutely the case for crypto. The other case for crypto that you just can't deny is the move to 24-hour markets that are inevitable and happening in real time. Let's put some numbers around it. The equity market globally $127 trillion in market cap.

Okay. Crypto market less than three at this point. Okay. If we all think that the equity market will tokenize and I I I think it's 100%. It's like you know markets went from like kind of manual to electronic. The next iteration of markets is tokenization 247 trading. So, okay, if $127 trillion of equity uh of equities have to tokenize and I need to trade them on the weekends and at nights and on holidays, what am I going to buy them with? Hello, stable coins, right? And so, it creates this incredible flywheel where stable coin production is going to go up, tokenization is going to go up, and that also, you know, helps fuel all the layer 1 ecosystems around

it. DeFi is interesting, too. um you know as regulators get more comfortable uh with tokenized assets to the extent you can start deploying them in vaults and and other ways like you know we talked about uh stable coins as a store of value well kind of because it's a depreciating asset but it stores it better than other assets well how do you generate yield um yeah there's this massive debate with the banks and Coinbase whatever but you can still go into DeFi and do it like we do it all the time right um many DGens do it all the time so again all as stable coins come into the system as tokens come into the system very good for DeFi very good for the long term no matter what >> if here's a question for you kind of

going back to you know kind of the current day crisis um and and you you drawn a historical parallel that I want to ask you about as well if there wasn't is because the main story for us obviously is price action right for months since since 1010 >> that's the only thing we want to know Chris >> and do Do you feel like if this, you know, we've seen a small March rally that's kind of cooling today. If there wasn't this geopolitical issue right now that has potential longlasting effects and pot and could potentially be long-lasting itself. We don't know. Do you where would crypto be? Like would crypto be in the same spot from like a

price action standpoint? I guess I'm kind of asking you if you think the four-year cycle is real and kind of like what's driving price. But do you think that risk assets like crypto would be anywhere different than where they were they uh if this if this wasn't happening? >> The four-year cycle is real because a lot of retail wells believe that it's real. Um I think it's a bit in their heads. As institutional adoption comes in comes into effect then that that's going to be muted price action wise. Okay, we're facing this massive stress and crypto's done relatively well. uh is it a coiled spring? What's going to happen after, you know, this lets up and how it lets up? It could be in many different ways. If everyone comes together and the straight of Hormus is open and the economy starts flowing again, yeah, I I think we're going to be

in very good shape. Now, I think a lot of the the Gulf states are going to have to think about they've been massive supporters of crypto. Uh do they double down and go even deeper because they're like, you know what, trustless permissionless, I need more Bitcoin, you know, I need more stable coins. Uh, that's one scenario, but they will have to put capital back into rebuilding a lot of their infrastructure. >> That makes sense. Yeah, that that that that's a good answer. Yeah, I like that. Is this is this how do you see kind of I guess how do you see crypto playing out through the rest of the year, Chris? That's another question. You mentioned Clarity Act and I do want to come back to oil in a second, but while we're just talking about actual crypto action is this is this conflict or not? Does

crypto continue on its on its kind of supposed timeline? >> Yeah, look, it's going to be volatile. It's you, you know, when you're dealing with this type of of major rewiring of the international envi uh geopolitical landscape, you're dealing with massive stresses uh to supply of energy, etc. You're going to have volatility throughout. But again, when you step back, let's just talk about regulatory for for a second. You have the Genius Act that was passed that's getting implemented right now. And then you're going to see institutions pumping out stable coins. Why? Because it's in the US interest. We want people to buy our treasuries. How do you do that? you you push out stable coins and I'm telling you there's demand uh for stable coins as well. Um next thing clarity um does it happen or does it not? I was at 51%.

I've kind of come back a little bit. I'm around 50% right now. You you can you can flip a coin if it happens or not. Um in a way it doesn't matter because you have Chairman Celig and you have Chairman Atkins. They're getting together and they're providing the clarity that we've been desperate for. They're even naming tokens and saying these tokens are commodities. Like leave it alone, right? And the point is is that in 3 years from now, um it's very difficult for a new regime that hates crypto to come in and say, you know what, uh those guys were completely wrong because you have three years of precedent. The market has moved and they've adopted those standards. If you've listed a future on those commodities, uh what what are you in trouble now? because the next guy shows

up or lady and they're like, "No, you're a security. You know, you're going to get fined." No, that's just not how it works. What Gary Gendler did was he had a he had a a vision of really strategic ambiguity by not defining the asset class. Um, it kind of stalled it and when he tried to define it, they would go to the courts. But now we're going to have better definitions. It's really hard to put the genie back in the bottle. So, that is a very positive fundamental driver for institutional adoption as we hit this institutional era. Now the clarity act if it gets done and I am of the belief that this interest issue will get sorted. It's been a real pain. I can walk through it in incredible depth. I think there's an easy way to solve it really. And in fact you just saw the way to solve it

recently where the regulators have said we're going to lower the the regulatory capital for banks. Banks are saying we can't lend if our our deposits leave. Well, that's true kind of, but the reason why they can't lend is because they have to hold punitive regulatory capital against lending. I remember because I used to work at a bank and it was very expensive for us to to to loan because we had to hold a lot of reserves against those loans and it hurts your return on equity. That's why private credit was born. And so by lowering the capital and I'm by the way people will say, well that's going to cause the next crisis. I'm not talking about risk management. I'm talking about lowering capital for you know without ignoring risk management that gives them a lot

more liquidity back to do that those loans by by lowering the requirement. So long story short if you're really worried about not being able to loan there's a different way to solve it and I I I do think that this whole thing can get solved. Uh of course the banks think that they're going to get that anyway so it's hard to kind of tie it together but there's a lot people a lot smarter than me that are working through those politics. So I think I get sorted. The next thing are ethics. And you know, people think that Donald Trump and crypto are a thing. Um, and so they hate crypto. Well, I would argue if that's your rationale, then let's just get rid of real estate, too, because uh he likes real estate, so let's just get rid of that as an asset. Let's punish

the real estate as an asset class. Doesn't make sense, right? So, if you look at what he said in the state of the union, he mentioned it twice, uh, the stop insider trading act. Um and so what the point that many of us have been making when we talk to to policy makers is guys are there issues with with crypto and ethics. Yeah, maybe. Uh but there also bigger probably issues in the equity space. So just do it once and for all. Do every why are you singling out one asset class which is a very important asset class. It's going to revolutionize your markets and drive responsible innovation. So I think there's a way to solve all this stuff.

Um and then against that backdrop, you have midterms coming. And so I went from like 51 to 50%. I could go either way because a lot of the success of pushing this over the line I think will come down to people like Fairshake and as elections get shaped, you know, does the cryp does the crypto industry um you know, how does crypto factor into the policies for and platforms of those getting elected? And if it's important whether you're a Democrat or Republican, and by the way, like this stuff is totally should not be partisan in any way, shape, or form, then I think it gets done. So, I think there's a road map. I think it's a coin flip. If we get clarity, um I don't want to say animal spirits, but you'll get some animal

spirits and it'll be very good for the market because you're going to be like, "Hey, now we're entrenched. Now we're enshrined. You know, we have rules." And it's going to be and you know, there's a famous phrase, it t it takes an act of Congress, right? So, if you get an act of Congress, it's going to take an act of Congress to get rid of it and then, you know, we should be in good shape. So, I'm watching that super close. Um, I think we'll have some movement in April. Fingers crossed. And again, if it doesn't happen, we'll still be fine. The way we build wealth is changing. Stocks, savings accounts, real estate. That playbook is getting rewritten in real time. Nexo is the platform built for what's next. It's an all-in-one digital wealth platform where you can earn interest on your crypto, borrow against

it without selling, and trade a wide range of assets, all in one place with 24/7 support and institutional grade security. Oh, and by the way, Nexo is back in the US with new US clients getting 30 days of Wealth Club premier access. That means elevated interest rates, lower borrowing costs, and crypto cash back on trades. Benefits usually reserved for loyalty program members. Get started at milkroad.com/nexo. Here's an interesting question that I hadn't really thought about until you kind of gave us um you know a potential shape of the midterms there in terms of crypto being a a partisan or or or nonpartisan issue regardless of of whether it should be or not. How will uh people running in the

midterms, lawmakers running in the in the midterms, how will they position in against uh for or against crypto based? Do you think they'll ba they'll they'll do their positioning as an anti-Trump thing? You know what I mean? Because it's something where it's like yes, it should be it shouldn't be a partisan thing, but because and you made a good point that it's like you can't be, you know, Trump is for a lot of things and you can't you can't just hate them because he likes them. >> He likes a lot of different stuff. >> But do you think there'll be a huge positioning against crypto because it has it lately has felt like a like a Trump thing um in the last like two years? I think that's a dangerous position to take. Uh if you go anti-technology, you go anti- AI. I

think it's very tempting for some folks to say, "Oh, you know, AI is going to destroy all the jobs in my district, so I hate AI." I think that's a very near-term um lazy and really bad policy. I think >> could it win? Could it win a seat? Could it win an election, though? It doesn't it doesn't I ask you like it doesn't I don't care what it actually means. Can they win with that at this I'm just thinking about like the public going to try they're going to try try to do it with AI um and they're going to try to do it with crypto. And so it's interesting how some of the uh the special interests are shaping up. I guess the question for me is are there a way like when I talk to some prominent Democrats they're like you know ethics got gota my constituents see

red with ethics because okay so then let's focus on ethics and like keep them focused on ethics across the board and there's a lot of congressmen and ladies that make a lot of money trading so hopefully um we we find a way to pivot off of that because you know if we destroy technology and innovation that's not very good for the long-term prospect. effects of our country. >> Um let's let's let's shift back to something a little bit more uh near-term. We had the Fed non-cut yesterday. Uh the news that came through and then we have Worsh coming in I think in May, right? And you had mentioned as well >> it gets confirmed. That's right. He gets confirmed in May. So do you do you expect a slightly different kind of

approach to all this now that Worshant I'm assuming will coordinate a lot more? >> Yeah, that's right. So yeah, worst has to go through the confirmation process. Uh I think Powell said he's going to stick around as a as a member until this investigation on real estate plays out. You know, >> I you really hate to see that become politicized. Uh and I hope it doesn't. But >> I think the markets got worse wrong. And when he was appointed, I think a lot of crypto folks were very nervous. Oh, the guy hates QE. You know, this is going to be terrible for our asset class. crypto tends to respond very favorably to liquidity and if he's pulling back on liquidity that's going to be a bad thing. I see it a little bit differently. I see him as trying to not

just shrink the Fed's balance sheet but shrink its focus its mandate on on on you know he sees as he sees quantitative easing and tightening as an expansion of its mandate. And I think he would prefer to see the Treasury take over certain roles and responsibilities that maybe shouldn't be left to an independent agency. And why shouldn't they? Because elections have consequences. And you know, to the extent that Treasury, there's a new Fed Treasury accord where roles and responsibilities shift a little bit more to Treasury and Bessant.

And by the way, they they get on quite well. Um you want to see coordination uh policy should be absolutely coordinated across fas uh treasury and fed and I see bessent taking a much bigger role in various types of uh macroeconomic inputs. So super focused on stable coins, super focused on the on the shape of the curve. You know, what tools does he have at his his disposal uh to accomplish what he's trying to accomplish, which is, you know, improve the strength of the dollar, uh, make stable coins ubiquitous, uh, and and other things. So, I think I I'm less concerned. I think you're going to see more power with the Treasury. And Bessant, the guy is super sophisticated.

He he's a hedge fund manager. He knows macro. Uh, and I think he he he knows the guy knows what he's doing. Uh, so I think that's how it's going to play out. We'll see what happens if he gets confirmed. Um, and I think the market's going to be just fine. >> What is the shape of the curve? >> What is >> Oh, I'm sorry. So, uh, the interest rate curve. So, >> Oh, okay. >> Yeah. Yeah. I I apologize. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, you know, when you look at interest rates, you have the short end, which treasuries, um, stable coins are backed by treasury bills, which are which control interest rates, near-term interest rates versus like 30-year interest rates. Um, and and so people think of the the curve, which is the interest rate curve, two 2year, 10 year, 30-year, etc. So what role will by

issuing more stable coins as an example, it forces short-term forces the buying of of treasury bills which could have the intended effect of lowering short-term interest rates. So that's the type of thing that that I I would envision um best in focusing on. >> Got it. Okay. Okay. I never heard I've never Well, maybe everyone else knows. I honestly, you know, doing this show every like week I find out something that apparently everybody knew, but I didn't. And I'll always ask that question. Thank you for asking. So, if you guys know what it is, people listening know what it is, good for you.

Uh, you know more than I do. U, let's go back. Chris, I I promised to touch on this and it's it's a little bit out of order because we talk about crypto and the Fed, but you had mentioned that this current oil shock um can be potentially compared >> to similar events in the 1970s. Obviously, there are drastically different conditions now, but what what maybe give us a little history lesson on that and what we can learn from that, if anything. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I'm I'm really old. Um, and I remember as a kid, um, like 1979, um, waiting with my mom and I think they would do it by like license plates. So, if you had an even or odd license plate, you could get gas on certain days of the week.

>> And I remember like lining up and like sometimes there'd be like red flags outside of the gas station where they're out of gas. So, we've been here before. Um what we did since that time is this country really mobilized and became independent uh from an energy perspective and I think there's going to be a lot more opportunities to do that you know across alternatives like Elon's pushing out solar everywhere. I think nuclear is going to have a new new effect. You know, the thing that I am concerned about is like with AI, you have this insatiable demand for energy more so than ever. And so you're going to see continued investment. But the difference back then was we were not energy dependent indep independent. Now we are um which is helping again um cushion us a little bit from the blow

which is much different than they're experiencing in Asia, much different than they're experiencing in Europe. Um so that was the experience back then. Now it's a little bit better but again in time I think there will be repercussions as the as you know around the globe demand starts drying up because because inflation and and energy prices just get out of control. >> What was driving that when you were a kid? What was the what was the issue? >> Oil embargo with same type of issues right out of the Middle East. Uh 1979 or yeah same exact issues coming out of the Middle East. >> Same thing same story man. Okay. Um, my I guess my next question for you then is what I mean we kind of already touched on this, but I mean, you know, you're a Marine, you're in the you're in the

defense dome thing. What I mean, if you had to give a if you had to give us a prediction of how you see this actually shaping out, we've already talked about the crypto story, but what what in terms of the conflict, I feel like you're the right person to, you know, at least one of the one of the better people to ask on the show is like, what do you think actually happens? I think that's what everybody that's a big question. What holds you to it? No, I mean I think it's pretty obvious what the administration would like. Venezuela was executed spectacularly and what did they get out of it? They they were very quick to identify a strong person. In that case, it was a woman uh who could maintain order uh who could be um who who would work very closely with the

administration on natural resources and everything else. And I think that they tried to do is to apply that model in Iran. Iran is much more complex. 90 million people that have been dig dug in and and the the theocracy has been preparing for this for a very long time. And so the question is is how long does it take or how do you get to the point where there's a general officer, there's somebody with a lot of guns and muscle behind them. Um in this case it's probably going to be a man uh who steps up, takes a lot of personal risk uh and seeks to establish themselves as that strong man in the country. Um, I don't think it's going to be like the mission that I had in Iraq, which was to install democracy. Rather, it's going to be to ensure stability,

freedom of maneuver through the straight of Hormuz, and as long as it's stable, and as long as you're friendly, you know, the administration will be happy. I think that's that's the vision is really stability and have somebody take over. Not very easy. Probably going to take a very long time. And if you're a Gulf state, what do you do? These guys just lashed out at you. If the US just pulls out and declares victory, the neighborhood probably just got a lot worse. And so I think at a very basic minimum, there has to be a way to control the straight of Hormus. And um I think people will try to find continue to explore alternatives uh to its use.

Like if 20% of the world's oil goes through it and it's a very bad and it continues to be a neighborhood, a really bad neighborhood, they'll have to find alternative pipelines and other means to avoid it. Um I I I think that securing the straight of Hormus is probably the endgame here. I'll note that the 31st MW is steaming across uh in the direction of of the area right now. That's the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. Um what I'm watching is do they take CarG? Uh Kar is responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Um and the MU has a battalion of Marines. Um they're very very comfortable in taking islands or parts of islands. That's what they do. That's what we do. Um so that'll be something to watch and if you control KRG it is

definitely um it would be impactful. Now of course Iran's been preparing for this for four decades, five decades. The US has been preparing for this for five decades. So we'll see what happens there. Um but yeah, I think securing freedom of navigation on the street of Hormuz is probably the bare minimum of what we need to achieve. Um see how it goes. >> Okay. Okay. That's what is the what would drag this out? >> Gosh. Um protracted mining. Um it's just it's just really hard to keep sticking your finger in the hole of every in the dam. Um because like when you're dealing with asymmetric warfare and I I dealt with it for for months and months in Iraq. Um it's very difficult. Um you can use a lot of lowcost means that we were

already seeing like mines are not very expensive. you can do you can wreak a lot of havoc for a lot for a very little cost these days with some of the drones that we're seeing etc. Um so the more that you know they just keep keep keep this going the worse off it is for everyone. Uh so I think it's uh yeah we we'll see if if the US and allies are able to secure uh freedom of navigation that that's going to be the big thing I'm watching. >> Real estate is one of the world's largest asset classes $300 trillion plus. But buying it, that's a nightmare.

Brokers, paperwork, massive down payments, and your money's locked up for years. What if you could trade real estate the same way you trade stocks? That's Sharand, a platform where you can trade US housing markets instantly, starting from just a dollar. We're not talking boring national indexes here. Sharand lets you trade at the neighborhood level. Think you know which zip codes are about to pop? Now you can actually put money on it. And then there's Tycoon, Sherland's AI agent that monitors housing markets, builds investment strategies, and can even execute trades on your behalf. It's not a chatbot. It's a real estate analyst that never sleeps. Explore the Sharland exchange at milkroad.com/sharland.

Jumping back to kind of uh putting the finance lens back on this, Chris, for somebody like you who you know, obviously we're talking about um your experience uh in conflict, but now you've had a lot of experience in finance since then as well. How much does a 247 market like Hyperliquid change like the Trady outlook on these types of stories where you're going to see like extreme action on the weekends? Now, as as the action develops in real life, >> yeah, my sense is that a lot of these operations were planned over the weekend so that the markets didn't get clobbered and people weren't subject to that volatility. That's going to go away and I think people are going to have to get used to it. But I think crypton natives like ourselves have a bit of an edge

because we've been living in that environment for years and years and it's something that you just get used to. >> There's been a lot of criticism over the years about well you know what if I'm a farmer and like something happens it on a Saturday at 1 a.m. and I get liquidated that's not going to work because I need to hedge. Um at the same time you can see periods of robust liquidity when there's an event in the middle of the night. Oh, and by the way, let's not forget um very few I think in the future very few humans are going to be trading. Maybe they will as a hobby, but the agents the agentic economy is here. Agents don't get tired. They're constantly monitoring. So, I think liquidity is going to um it's going to smooth. It's not going to be during the

the the workday when humans are awake in the US. I think the agents are going to be constantly seeking information and putting on trades. So, so the world is changing 24/7 is now table stakes. You have to be there. All the companies that I know about, all the exchanges are trying to get there. Tokenization is the solution to do so. Um, but they have really old tech and it's really scary for some of them. Um, when I was running global futures at Cityroup, >> I mean, and the way the entire futures industry works is it collateralizes like once a day and is very slow. And you could do a trade on Friday and you may not get that money and the market's moving like crazy over a long weekend. you might not get it for

another 3 days and like the entire world changes in 3 days. And so what does that mean? That means you have to hold more collateral to mitigate the all those risks. So the great news about 24/7 markets is that if you move them constant, if you move collateral faster, you can actually in you can unlock a lot of track trapped capital um back into the industry because you don't have to sit on it in case something bad happens over three or four days. So that's going to be very positive, I think. you know, the exchanges. I got a call from one yesterday, some of my old friends, and they were scared. U they're like, "Wow, if if S&P can start listing on Hyperlid, they have, you know, only a couple people, you know, a handful of people

24/7, you know, it's kind of not fair because I have to do all this regulation and hire all these people, but gosh, they're actually using if if TradeXYZ is actually using the official contract and the official index, uh-oh." um that's going to be problematic. Now, it's not seamless. There's some regulatory things that need to get worked out, but it sure does prove the case. And again, like when I wake up on the weekends, I look on Hyperlquid now, and pretty soon I used to look at oil prices, now I would look at equity prices, what's going on. And um I think to survive going forward, you got to be 24/7. And I think cryptonatives have an edge because that's how we've operated. So, you're telling me that a lot of these guys,

Tradfi guys, are going to either like what's going to be mandated of them like people like you that used to run that group are going to be like, "Listen guys, who wants to take the weekends?" You know, is that what's going to happen is like we have weekend shifts now and you guys got to be on or they'll just die like the dinosaurs. >> Great question. Um, >> yeah, >> we used to do a follow the sun model anyway, right? So you you know and it would be like I don't know 24 six or whatever. So is it really hard to add an extra day? Not really. Um >> but again I think you're going to see less and less manual human activity.

>> Like you don't need it anymore. The the bots are way better. The algos are way better. >> And so what's the role of humans going forward? Well, I think I think relationships are going to matter. I think kind of putting together synchronizing you know much better data sets that the agents and the LLMs provide you etc will be helpful. But but markets are changing fast like faster than I've ever seen 24/7 agentic um much faster. Um it's and like even prediction markets like prediction markets are just getting started and people are like using them to punt bet well I think I'm smarter than this so I'm going to do this whatever. Eventually, you're going to see an incredible diversification of financial prediction markets that feed

models and allow people to hedge in new ways in a binary way to inform the to inform uh their trading, their risk management, etc. is going to get very granular. Now, you know, liquidity matters as you kind of go down on the curve, but you're going to see a lot more financial um and I I like, you know, going back to hyperl should be interesting, but you know, as you start betting on where rates are where, you know, whatever other financial metric is, that's going to start feeding models. We haven't seen as much liquidity in those financial prediction markets just yet. It's been more focused on a lot of these things start with retail, right? And you know, gaming like, you know, whatever, politics, great. But eventually I think you're going to see a lot more financialization. Um and then that'll start feeding bottles. So between those

inputs, between the pers that are going to be inevitable in the US, uh I I think the world's 247 table stakes, I think it's going to be totally different than what we've seen. >> Do you dabble in prediction markets? >> I I've been known to do it from time to time. My my daughter my daughter's obsessed because she thinks she's smarter than everybody. Uh but >> what does she bet on? What does she play on production markets? She's too young. She's not allowed to. But she tells me she tells me what she you know everything. Uh pop >> for what? Like polit politics or like culture? Tik >> Tok. >> Culture. Mostly culture. Mostly culture.

So, and that's his generation. Like I my my son uh you know go to a baseball game. This generation generation Z like they they'll bet on like if if a pitch at a baseball game is over 90 miles an hour. >> Um ubiquitous. So like that's just going to get bigger and bigger as they grow up. >> That makes sense. So you're you're you're you're experiencing it by uh by proxy a little bit. Of course, at least through them, let's say giving them some tips. Yeah, put it that way. >> Um, cool. Well, Chris, I mean, this has been great. Thank you for sharing all your insight. Thank you for for sharing, you know, your experience, I think, as as a marina. Well, as well, it's something we don't get a lot uh on the show, so we don't really ever talk about war stuff because we're just amateurs on

X with with opinions that we on topics that we found out about an hour ago. So, um I feel like you've got a bit more experience there. And >> uh I'm just used to getting shot at, that's all. Used to getting shot at every day. Do you actually okay this is too personal but like it when things like this happen do you wish you were there or are you like happy that you are not you know I just curious how that works >> it's a great question um it's it's hard to explain but um >> if you grew up I spent nine years in the Marine Corps um a naval academy graduate and we say there's an expression when the balloon goes up um there's a part of you as as someone who served that you you really wish you were there >> not because you're um some wararmonger

or anything, but because you feel like you want to be next to the marine to your right and your left and to support them and to protect them and to be by them. So, yeah, there's this like this incredible feeling inside where you just you wish you were there in a way because you felt like that was your duty to >> to to serve the man to the man, sorry, like we were in all combat unit to serve the man to your left and to your right. And so that's that's how you feel. >> So, a lot of emotions. Um, I was with uh I was with the MW. I was on the I was uh on the USS Kirge when we rescued Scott Grady if you want to look at your history.

>> So I know what these guys can do. Um they're incredible. Scott Grady's guy got shot down in Serbia and uh the MU went in and rescued him. Yeah. Behind enemy lines. So >> So these guys that are going in right now, they're incredibly trained, sophisticated. Um and we'll see what what they do. So that should be in the next couple of weeks we find out. >> Played by uh Owen Wilson in the film. That's right. >> Yeah, I saw that. Great. Well, Chris, been a pleasure to talk to you, man. Uh, best of luck everything going forward and I'm sure we'll see you again hopefully this year. >> Cheers. Thanks, man. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for

educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.