Why the best altcoin play may not be altcoins: Scott Melker

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milkroach Show, the daily crypto show. Navigating markets like a dad navigating airport security with three kids in a stroller. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Friday, June 27th. Bitcoin is holding strong. 105 really seems to be its new low. Are we going to see 110 an all-time high soon? We're going to chat about that. Macro seems to be, I'm going to throw air quotes, temporarily stable with a real ceasefire that seems to be in effect. and kind of a a wait and see on what's going on with tariffs, although a little bit of tariff news uh with China today. And then NASDAQ and S&P both hitting all-time highs. So markets are uh are feeling pretty good as we go into summer here, which you

know, summer selling may go away. We'll see what we actually see this summer. I think you might want to stay tuned in because there might be some more to come today to talk about this and so much more. joined by the one and only the Wolf of Wall Street, Scott Melker, longtime crypto educator and investor and just an absolute rock star in the media crypto space. Before we jump in here from Scott, got to tell you guys, I've been telling you all week and if you ain't listening, you're going to want to listen. We are launching Milro Pro all access. It is our new product to help you with your investing and it is going to be $100 per month, but this week only before July 1st is only $25 per month. So, hit the link in the show notes if you want to learn exactly all

this stuff. I don't even have time to read all this stuff out, the reports, the research, the calls, the access, the community, everything that's in this. There's so much that'll help you be a great investor in crypto and beyond because there's more stuff coming in the future. So, check it out because you won't be upset if you do. Today's episode is brought to you by Letin. Get cash without selling your Bitcoin. It's also brought to you by Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking it away. Without further ado, Scott, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. You hit me in the fields with that single dad like in the airport with the three kids. Brutal. You've done that before. Yeah. Two kids. Same thing.

Yeah. Once you get more than one, it's chaos. Yeah. Crazy. Okay. Let's start with uh let's start with Bitcoin. Uh what what are your thoughts on on where Bitcoin's at right now? It seems that Bitcoin doesn't want to go down. H it looks awesome. I mean 100,000 has been a clear floor. Last Sunday, obviously, we had that drop below. even myself thinking, hey, maybe we're finally going to get a real retracement and I can buy some more Bitcoin lower, but it was not meant to be. Obviously, ended the week and that day back above 100 and now sitting here in the mid 107s, right? It seems like we found a really comfortable range between 100 and 112 basically. And that's the normal consolidation we see after a Bitcoin all-time high. So, I

really think that it's looking exceptionally good. really a lot to like about the chart, the fundamentals, and everything that's happening with Bitcoin. Not necessarily the rest of the crypto market, which maybe is worth discussing, but Bitcoin looks great. Yeah. Yeah. Let's uh let's definitely chat about altcoins. Um but before we do that, uh let let's talk a little bit about let's go broader for a second. S&P NASDAQ also hitting all-time highs. Uh macros caused a lot of issues this year, right? Like it's been a macroled market. How are you feeling about the current macro setup? Uh, and I mean the one thing on my mind is the July 9th uh tariff date and what happens around there. And then also we have the FOMC

meeting at the end of July which I don't think we expect to see anything from, but there's definitely there seems to be a little bit of uh disagreement within the Fed right now and what they're going to do. How are you framing macro right now? Uh right now you just buy dips and assume that you'll do well until proven otherwise. Right? So you can be I think macro bearish, have a thesis, but the market has proved you wrong over and over and over again for years. While we've been supposed to go into a recession and the stock market was supposed to crash, people forget, I mean, we did get a 20 plus% retracement on stocks when we announced the first round of tariffs and that's quite a bit.

And maybe now in this world where you know recessions are illegal because of governments maybe 20% 25% is the kind of retracement you're going to get unless we head into a great depression. But like if you're an investor do you put your money on great depression or what you see every single day. I think you maybe prepare and you start to hedge and you buy bitcoin or some gold. I don't know uh if you're old and boring. Uh but otherwise you know I think you just ride this wave as long as it's written. Listen, if you're a technical analyst, if you look at markets, blue sky breakouts when something makes new all-time high is a hugely bullish signal signal and that's happening across the board on everything stock related. So, I would say you don't fade this like July 9th seems like an opportunity to buy

whatever stupid dip comes, right? Maybe you get a 5% dip for a minute, but I mean every dip is just getting bought up across the board. So, nothing seems to want to stop it. You can have multiple wars, tariffs, all these shakeups. Markets want to go up. big beautiful bill that seems like the inevitable next thing that's coming and that's just more government printing and more government printing assets go higher like it just feels it it feels so obvious shortterm I don't know like I don't know what your thoughts are the summer I I my thought is we still chop for the summer yeah I I have not believed for a second that we were going to get higher than 112 for a while right we might that wouldn't surprise me at all but my base thesis is always that summers are boring and you

can even go back to most bullish arguably year of crypto which was 2021. Bitcoin went all the way up to 65. But people forget that this summer in like 10 days it went from 65 to 28 then chopped around in the 30s before heading up in the fall to new all-time highs. So even in the years that we remember the fondest it's like the you know the ex-girlfriend you break up with and then you forget about all the bad things, remember all the good things. that's 2021 because it was brutal that summer and we thought it was all over, you know, and so I think that my expectation is we just kind of chill in these, you know, low 100s, even if we made a high, you know, 115, 120, the same as 112, right? I mean, it's just the same thing.

And we just kind of hang out here and see what happens in the fall. Big Beautiful Bill is a show, but uh it should be good for markets. What? Give give us a little bit more color to that. What do you mean by I mean, you can't pretend that like we're doing austerity and we care about government spending or any of those things and then propose something as ridiculous as that, right? It's the uh I mean, it's the only It's the Inflation Act 25. What? Yeah. Yeah, that's that's well said. Yeah. Inment reduction act. They should call this one uh the No More money printing act just to gaslight us a little harder like they did with the Inflation Reduction Act.

Yeah. I I mean, it's the only playbook they have. like what what what politician is really going to come in and really do austerity like Well, they tried for about five minutes and saw how that went. Yeah. Yeah. How did Yeah. It's it's just not it's it's not a reasonable expectation. I mean, I think they Yeah. They're they're continually gaslighting us. Okay. Let's uh let's chat about um you were talking about this on your show earlier this morning and I was listening into that is um Fanny and Freddy Mack have been ordered to consider crypto as an asset when buying mortgages. And I don't think many people are noticing this, but you you brought it up and I think this is big news. Can you walk us through this?

First of all, Fanny and Freddy Mack are the two stupidest names of any government program in history. What is that? Right. Anyways, but Fanny and Freddy Mack obviously like governmentbacked mortgages. We've had this long history of crypto basically not being viewed as a legitimate asset and not counting towards your net worth. So there's been a lot of bad takes as to what this means. So what it does not mean that you can get a mortgage backed by Bitcoin, which is what people have been saying. That is not what it means. But when you're assessed for what kind of mortgage you qualify for, what kind of down payment you can make, and how much reserves you have to be able to continue that payment, which is how they assess how large of a mortgage mortgage you could take, how much house you can buy. They will now count Bitcoin and

crypto in Coinbase. That should be very specific in Coinbase towards your assets. And this is really really important because it's basically the same treatment that you would get from stocks or any other investments that you have. So I think that this is really really huge will be majorly impactful for a lot of people who have most of their wealth in crypto and it just doesn't count and they basically can't even uh you know uh qualify or even apply for a reasonable mortgage. That said, I mean mortgage rates are still skyhigh. people aren't really buying houses and you know it doesn't prevent you from having to sell some of that crypto to pay for the house, right?

That's another conversation people seemingly are confused on. But very big news that the government's going to consider this a legitimate asset class. Like I said before though, that doesn't mean that your shitcoins on MetaMask are going to count towards your mortgage. Yeah. What do you mean when you say that it has to be in Coinbase? So right now they've said US government regulated exchanges. So maybe it's Coinbase Gemini Kraken Kraken. Uh people a lot of people pointing towards Coinbase, but it's not going to specifically be any crypto that you hold. It's going to have So it's not custody. It has to be on an exchange.

Yeah. Right. And honestly, I can almost understand that because this is a mortgage. It's like the most traditional classic thing ever. And proving that a self-custody wallet is yours. Imagine the government having to do that. That would require you sending controlled transactions, potentially sharing your keys to prove the wallet's yours. So, I I don't know if we would even want that. One of the unintended sort of interesting consequences that I discussed this morning that came to my head live on the show while I was talking to NLW was that that also means you're going to have to repatriate assets that you want to count from foreign exchanges which also anybody who's been through the mortgage process in the United States knows that any assets that are counted towards a mortgage have to be what's called

seasoned or basically tracked for usually three to six months. So multiple months. So you'll have to show exactly where all of those funds came from and what activities they came from. So you're going to have to dox your foreign exchange holdings if you move them or you're going to have to move them like a year before obviously you apply for a mortgage so they're not in that seasoning period. But uh anyone who's been through the mortgage process, you want to show just enough assets to get the loan you want, but you don't want to show them everything, right? And so, but when you show enough and then all of a sudden you need a little more money or you need to make a payment, it has to come specifically out of those accounts which might cause you to have to sell some of that crypto that they're

counting. There's a lot of nuance here, but at the bottom line, like your Bitcoin counts like your stocks and that's absolutely huge. That's huge. That is huge because I mean even I've talked to people that were buying real estate recently and a lot of my friends in network have large assets in crypto and in Bitcoin and they didn't get any credit for it and it was an absolute nightmare for them to get a mortgage as a result of that. So these you know these little steps are are a big step in the right direction but uh with yeah I think it should just be clear like you still have to show your tax returns and show that you have enough income to pay your bills. doesn't just mean like they'll say, "Oh, you have $10 million in Bitcoin. Cool. You could afford a $100,000 pay." It's not going to work

out. Yeah. Yeah. It won't be that simple. But obviously this once you open the door and they Freddy and Fanny start to go down this path, then you can imagine that they'll figure more stuff out. Yeah. Very consistent with this government's pro crypto approach and trying to, you know, count it as a legitimate asset class. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's great news. Great news. Uh are let's talk let's we talked at the beginning about okay Bitcoin doing great looking good alts not so much. Are altcoins dead? What's what's your take?

I I wouldn't I would say most of them are dead. Um I wouldn't say that all of them are dead. There's still some incredible fundamentally important things that are being built. The problem is that people just don't care because we have completely new shitcoins to trade and that is stocks and bitcoin treasury companies. And so we had this sort of problem where Bitcoin caught this massive bid because of institutions and ETFs and all those things. And then you rationally thought about it. Well, for altcoins to catch a bid, you used to have to, you know, have Bitcoin go up and then people would get bored and that Bitcoin money would flow down to altcoins. Well, that money sitting in your RA on an ETF can't flow down to altcoins because there's no traditional market exposure to anything else. But I

can go right into Circle and Coinbase and Nakamoto and Micro Strategy and the 7,000 more Bitcoin treasury companies that are about to launch. It's a much bigger market, much more liquid, much higher volume, much more money. And now that we've unlocked the institutional and big money side of crypto, that's where the altcoin money that would have been there before is going. So are public companies the altcoin trade of this cycle then? They're the ICOs of this company of this. But uh which in my opinion means that uh the creators and the founders and the early investors are going to get exceptionally rich and any retail person who buys these is going to get absolutely wrecked just like all coins. Right. Right. It's

not an opportunity for retail in the true you'll sell it as one but it's going to be the same process but in public markets instead. And I'm not saying that's necessarily true of all of them. There will be some that'll be great. Not saying that's true of Micro Strategy, but you know, Bitcoin Treasury company raising convertible debt number 74. Uh they're going to get wrecked on the first 15 20% Bitcoin draw down. They're going to have to sell some Bitcoin. Could have negative consequences for Bitcoin. I think that'll be the next bubble. But what it'll really do is mean that the shareholders get wrecked, right? Because they won't be able to pay the notes. The they've been selling shares obviously to raise money to buy Bitcoin. Shares go to zero. people get wrecked. Tail as old as time like Beauty

and the Beast, you know, it's going to look just like the alcoin markets of the past. Yeah. And I mean, the the obvious thing to do would be to dive deep into their documentation and really understand the way they're doing the convertible notes, but no one obvious thing to do is buy Bitcoin. Yeah. And not try to leverage your Bitcoin with stupid because like there's no reason one of these is trading at a six or seven multiple to the underlying Bitcoin that they hold. Now to be fair like banks trade at you know 2 and a half time 2x multiple to their book value like the actual value of the assets that's because they're banks offering financial services. These are just offering what's underlying and a lot of them are saying we will offer like pump

just launched one you know and it says you know we're going to build all these Bitcoin products well when that happens I think the valuations will be justified but we have to see that happen first people are just going to get so wrecked on these also the more that come the less demand there'll be for those convertible notes and the more competitive those convertible notes will have to be in my mind I have the PTSD of Voyager and Celsius and you know Block and all of these, it's not the same. I'm not saying that those were literally outright scams, but uh or at least like very bad hedge funds laring as you know, banks. But in this case, it's going to get pretty ugly like those when they start to compete because if you

remember, it would be like BlockFi 4% on your Bitcoin Celsius. Well, I need to go 5%. Voyager, I got to get 6%, right? And then we start seeing 11, 12, 13, 14% on stable coins. These guys are going to have to compete, offer, go further down the risk curve to take those chances to get more people to buy theirs versus the other 73. Right. So, are you fully out of are you fully out of alts? Are you an No, I'm I'm I'm just getting to taking the beating, you know, like it's fine. I'm a big I've got I own quite a lot of altcoins. Listen, it's not like I would have rather held Bitcoin the whole time, but it's not like they're worth zero. And a lot of them I bought much lower even still than

they're trading now. So, yes, there was opportunity for more profit. But, uh, listen, like, you know, I took a long-term view on a lot of these. And listen, I'm not so worried about my Ethereum position long-term or Salana or any of these. I think they'll catch a bit, but I've been saying that for a long time and they haven't. So, yeah. I I mean, I think and would be interested to hear your thoughts. I think we're in a a a weird extended bull cycle and we still have room to run and the big beautiful bill is a big reason why yeah I just don't think we're going to like listen if you believed I was a heavy believer I always said until proven otherwise which is always my thing but I was a heavy believer in the four-year cycle you know and Bitcoin

went early right obviously because of the ETFs which those of us who are believers in the cycle just chose to ignore that like Bitcoin had made an all-time high too early but it'll be fine. But it kind of followed still, you know, into last fall and into the early part of this year where it continued to to rage and make a new all-time high. But if you were a deep believer in the four-year cycle, it's not just Bitcoin, right? Cryp altcoins, the crypto side as we call should have been going absolutely nuts since January and it just hasn't. So that cycle is dead. So you have to believe, like you said, that there's a new form of cycle coming or that we're in a new form. The question is like, does that mean all coins go crazy later? I mean, some go crazy and some dire. I mean, they never catch a

bid and it's just Bitcoin. That's the cycle. Yeah. I mean, it's a and it's an impossible question to answer. Selling your Bitcoin should be a last resort when you need cash. That's why there's Leen, the trusted platform for Bitcoin backed loans. You can unlock cash in as little as 18 hours with no monthly interest payments and no prepayment penalties. They've issued over 9 billion in loans and never lost a single satoshi of client funds, even during the chaos of 2022. If you're a long-term hodler, this is the move. Get liquidity without selling at milkroad.com/letin spelled led.

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Are you buying anything right now? Anything that you're seeing that you are? I I always buy Bitcoin. I always buy Bitcoin like absolutely passively. I always still like, you know, I still dollar cost average into spy and uh as I always have passively, but there's been nothing screaming at me that like I need to plow a bunch of money into. to be honest, when Bitcoin broke a 100, like I said, I was hoping to buy more in like the high 80s or mid 80s or something like that. But, uh, hope's not a strategy. And it's not like that was like, oh my god, I own no Bitcoin. I'm not going to buy here. I'm waiting for lower. That would be dumb. I just kind of had some dry powder on the side that's sort of like a more of a trading portfolio or take a little risk and try

to get lower and I didn't buy. I I waited. Mhm. The the the only place where I am finding I'm attracted to right now is is DeFi. Like I still feel like DeFi is undervalued because you have you have real fundamentals, right? You have real revenue. You have buyback programs that keep consistent demand for their tokens. Like I'm talking about the the skies or the Athenas on the stable coin side are very interesting, right?

or the a lot of the dexes, the a you want to go over to the Salana, right? Like those are the ones where I don't know I I they follow the altcoin cycle and I don't know what's going to happen with the altcoin cycle and as you and I both said like good luck predicting that. Maybe I hope we see a big pump end of this year, early next year. That's the only place place where I I still feel like there's an undervalue there. I I I agree. I just want to say like if you're looking at what's happening with treasury companies just to circle back like people who invested in some of these early aka two weeks before they launched were up and relatively liquid by like

2830x two weeks later if you're what people don't realize that so that they're doing what altcoin launches did at like peak cycle for the early investors who had access Like I don't think but but who had actually I don't think Device is gonna 30 or 50x from here in the short term. No. No, I don't think so. Right. So, I'm not saying they're bad investments. I'm just saying people used to play the alt cycle for like overnight 10x gains. Now, I think you buy one of those and you're like, "Hey, in the next few months I might make 50% or something." You know what I mean? More like uh really still very exciting for those of us who are in stocks in the past, but not that exciting for people who are like flipping meme coins. So do

you think we should let go of the expectation of those big returns in crypto or will we see it again? I think that uh we will still see them in random corners but I have my doubts that we see like overnight 10 20 30x gains again. Mhm. Yeah. The the challenge is like there hasn't been a lot of new innovation in crypto in in the stable coins. Yeah. See, the thing is that the money is going I know, but the money is going where it should. That's the thing.

We have two killer apps for Bitcoin and everything else is like a speculative tech play, which is fine. I thought we'd be further along by now, but Bitcoin and stable coins are the two proven use cases of blockchain technology. And stable coins were uninvestable until two weeks ago. Did you buy? There's a reason stable and coin are going so crazy. I'm just saying like that circle and coin circle going public allowed everyone to participate in stable coin hype. That was the first time ever. And you know Coinbase actually makes more money on USDC than Circle. I don't think people realize that. But so it makes sense that Coinbase is making new highs here as well. But like everything else is like I don't know maybe it'll go. Maybe this will be the narrative for three months.

Maybe it's RWA. Maybe it's metaverse. Maybe NFTTS will catch a bid. some apes, bro. Like, I don't know. Just have no way to guess anymore. Okay, let's talk about another thing that is very difficult to predict, which is uh when we're going to see the next set set of legislation and the market structure bill. What's your thoughts around that? So, we let's actually let's take step back for a sec. So, Genius Act gone through Senate almost basically crossing eyes, dotting tees, like gonna get to the final finish line soon. Uh what's next would be market structure.

When do you think we get that? Well, genius has passed the Senate. I'm hoping that we'll actually see some movement on that in the House and get that done. Right. So, we should see stable coin legislation soon. We know Trump wants to sign it. Trump said he wants market structure by August. That's not happening. Tim Scott, the head of the Senate Banking Committee, just said today or yesterday, September 30th. To me, that means like 2029. Like, I don't believe the government will ever do anything efficiently or on time. but maybe this is a priority and they get it done. But, uh, market structure is really hard. Stable coins relative to market structure is like a one out of 10, you know, and and and market structure is a 12 because market structure isn't just, hey, we have to define what is a security or commodity

or at least put, you know, uh, something in place to be able to put it into a framework and figure that out. It's also how exchanges can operate. Like Charles Schwab or these companies, the largest exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange, they're not custodying your assets, right? Custody is separated from brokerage, is separated from So right now, crypto exchanges can do all those things. Market structure is defining what entities can do what and in context to other things they're doing. And to me, the potential for them to like just butcher this and get it wrong with endless consequences in the future that are really high. So, I'm not like I think they'll get something done. I'm just hoping it'll be like very basic guard rails and not overlegislate, which

they're prone to do. But, uh, listen, they're saying September 30th, which is earlier than Lemus' end of the year, but later than Trump's August. So, maybe they'll thread that needle. What's the what's the impact like if they if they get it if they get it done get it done? Do you think that causes any sort of market reaction? Like where where's the edge in in this in this market? I don't know if there's edge. I think we'd see a little bump. I think it's just really protecting crypto from future administrations. Right. It's one thing to sign executive orders. Just another thing to have regulation. But listen, I mean Gary Gendler was the was the main

regulator. Everything he did was erased in two weeks when we got a new right without laws on the books. You need laws on the books, actual legislation to protect it from regime change. We could have a Democratic Senate or House in a year and a half, right? I I would actually, if I was a betting man, I would say we will have a Democratic House because very rarely does a party win all three things and keep it, right? because it's really easy to scream from the sidelines uh and complain. So, they don't have much time to get this done and like I said, we need it on the book.

So, I I think it'll cause a market pump, but I think the longer effects will be much more dramatic because it will solidify our place here in the United States. Yeah, it it feels like the big effect right now is and I I I find that I'm talking to lots of founders that are very interested in moving back to the US. It'll bring people back to the US. I think that's correct. that'll finally say yes, you're safe here forever. Yeah. Yeah. And that's and that's that's big because that's that's big not only for the US. I think that's big for the global world because when you have founders in the US, they tend to grow faster and get a lot of support and really benefit from the the amplification of the American economy and the American system, the American

tech system and all of that. So, I think that you could see the long it's more the long-term effects, not the short-term effects for market structure. Yeah, I agree with that. All right. Well, we ought to make sure that we I don't even know how to impact market structure because like I think like you said the industry impossible task. Yeah, the industry is definitely in there, but they're obviously like lobbying their own self-interest. So, like if Coinbase and Ripple are in the same room uh lobbying for this, they're not going to be lobbying for the same thing, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's uh I mean, of course. What about um one more topic I want to touch on before we let you go? And actually before I say this uh if I should mention yesterday's newsletter for Milro talked all about how uh equities public equities are the altcoin

of this cycle. So you guys should go read that if you want to drop drop into more of that. What he said uh uh what about this uh you can buy SpaceX stock now onchain. Did you catch that that news? What's Yeah, I did. I had to have NLW break that down for me today actually because I hadn't seen it's via Republic and so I mean it's a good headline. Yeah, but I think there's like crazy gymnastics you have to do to be able to do it. It's not so straightforward. So, first of all, I guess the the important point there is that SpaceX is private, right? So, buying shares of a private company usually not that accessible to people.

So, this is not even the same story as tokenizing public equities, right? We've seen Bybit announcer, you know, you you'll be able to trade tokenized stocks. Uh we know Coinbase is trying to do that. We know that eventually they'll tokenize everything and we'll be able to trade stocks that way. But this is trading shares of something that's private. So very different. But I think it's if you dig into it, it's very small aotments and there's all these like steps to go through ways that they've kind of found to go through multiple loopholes to make it legal. So, it's not like you're just buying directly from some early investor or something, you know, secondary market. So, interesting, but I don't think it's a big deal. I think it the

story is that Republic found a cool way to get you a little bit of SpaceX, right? And to get a great media headline and get a lot of attention because basically Republic is going to somehow buy it in the private market. That's right. And they're going to wrap it. They sell it to you to Yeah. and you don't get dividends and you don't get rights and you don't get any of that. So, it's not I think it's cool. I just don't think it's cool. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it is it's cool because we all this is what we all wanted with ICOs was early access to these private companies which we still haven't we have not solved that at all. And I mean maybe we solve it when we get market structure because maybe companies legitimately do think okay now I am willing to go the

crypto route in the way I raise capital versus going the VC private market route. Do you think that that could happen eventually? Yeah. I mean I think that we've proven that crypto is a great way to raise money really fast. So I do think that that's part of the tokenized future but it's going to require this legislation and regulation first. Yeah. Scott, always a breath of fresh air to get you on the show. Appreciate you as always. I'm gonna go take my three kids through an airport by myself with a few strollers. Don't don't, man. You won't make it. Yeah, just remember just for the uh just for the trauma imprint on your uh on your soul. Uh I got to remind you all as always, none of today's episode is financial advice. I am not your financial adviser. Scott is not

your financial adviser. You should do your own research. You should always think before you make any investments. And if you want help with your investments, you should make sure that you check out the new Milkro Pro all access, which is right now $25 a month and is going up to $100 a month on July 1st. It's got everything you need to be a rockstar investor, plus access to our team, which is really probably one of the best things you can ask direct questions when you don't know what the heck is going on in markets, which I feel like happens on a daily basis. Thanks all for listening and have a wicked awesome day. We'll see you back again tomorrow. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap.

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