When the crypto cycle ends, with Real Vision's Jamie Coutts

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's like hitting all green lights with your favorite song playing on the radio on your way home from work I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Jamie coats one of the brightest Minds in the crypto space Jamie built the crypto research platform at Bloomberg intelligence he's currently the chief crypto Analyst at real vision and if you're like me and you have expectations to profit six seven or maybe even eight figures in the next 12 months the opportunity is here it's right in front of us then you probably have a few questions and I was thinking about mine and that's the way we're going to approach this episode with Jamie today is I have three questions that I have which is first when is the cycle going

to end Jamie has some research Wizardry he does to pull together how to predict that we're going to talk about what are his top five conviction tokens for the next 12 months and which sectors will outperform and I think the end this part is so important not only is J has some great analysis here but if you want to play chess chess and not Checkers with your Investments you need to invest based upon narratives you need to invest based upon sectors that are going to outperform not just tokens which is a little bit more like gambling so stick around to the end for all of that now if you want to be a pro in this cycle as well you should probably check out milro Pro hit the link of the show notes we got a brand new report out that you guys are going to absolutely love and we just

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oos Jamie welcome to the milk Road Show hey Jane nice to be here yeah man great to have you okay let's start off with my first question which is going to sound pretty simple but I know it's not so simple in the way you approach this is when is this cycle going to end uh okay so the answer to this question is I don't know no one knows but the best we can do is try and draw comparisons from history to give us a sense of you know the probabilities of where it can where it can end so the way in which I I do this is um firstly I I've tried to over the years understand what drives crypto prices or let's just talk about Bitcoin here because it is the The Benchmark

asset of the space and if you just look at some of the global macro factors liquidity factors not just liquidity but sort of the the the variables that also affect liquidity so not just talking about The Total Money stock or central bank balance sheets but there's a raft of different factors when you look at the correlations or the when you try and regress some of these factors to see what the relationship is like you get some fairly strong um uh strong relationships between these um these liquidity and macro factors and so from there you look at you know how they've sort of behave the patterns in liquidity and these variables and then you sort of look at the duration of the cycles that

we've seen before and then you do what every analyst does is extrapolate forward and try to work out on the probabilities of of what will happen based on based on the past so the analysis that I did for real vision is just really a evolution of thinking um that started maybe five years ago when I used to just look at things like the central bank balance sheets and sort of extrapolate from there and that that actually has a pretty strong correlation but it doesn't help necessarily with exact timing around the tops um it does a pretty good job at the bottoms because when central banks do any kind of policy reversal in terms of like adding liquidity markets react on a dime but markets are

forward-looking forward-looking mechanisms and so Central Bank policies when they tend to turn negative for a lack of better word or tend to withdraw a liquidity markets will anticipate that and move before that happens and therefore we get tops in Risk assets but especially crypto because it's sensitivity to liquidity months in advance of what's Happening uh with central bank balance sheets Global M2 probably all the things that you've heard about and people are talking about on Twitter so looking at sort of where we are today if you look at the global M2 Global money supply which is just really an aggregation of like the largest economies um of their money

supply priced in US Dollars which is a very important point because what the dollar does is very important for Global liquidity and risk assets so pricing it in the U in US dollars is um is a very important aspect because it's you know in a world where most Deb is is is denominated in US Dollars the dollar appreciates everyone who owes us dollar debt feels the pinch especially if their earning or their their revenues are in local Curr so it's very tiny we're seeing that right now the dxy is broken above a pretty important resistance level at sort of 105 106 and is now sort of 109

or 108 today so we're in sort of a breakout and that that's definitely putting some pressure on markets so getting back to the point Global M2 went through um a huge expansion in 2020 unprecedented in many ways because it wasn't just central banks it was also governments um doing sort of direct to consumer or direct to voter uh stimul through um you know stimulus um checks and whatnot not going to get that this cycle um not by a long way we've got a new Administration that's actually going to cut costs or cut government spending hopefully and then so we had the we had the expansion in uh 2020 21 we had a roaring bull market markets anticipated inflation was becoming very problematic by the end of

2021 we peaked and we fell in the vicinity of 80% for Bitcoin and you know 95% for most alt coins and then we bought them at the end of 2022 so that this this model allowed me to basically uh go bullish when I was a blind intelligence in December on December the 5th to say right the new bull market has started and it's effectively been a oneway oneway direction since then of course we've had pullbacks but to be expected the interesting thing here is that Global liquidity hasn't really gone up a hell of a lot not as much as you would expect for this for where we are in the cycle we're post the um Bitcoin harving usually central banks just by nature of

the debt refinancing cycle are really adding a lot of liquidity right now and the reason they're not is a function of the fact that inflation's out of the bag and so they have to optically be seen to be doing something about it the the thing that I sort of come back to when people start worrying about inflation and of course inflation is a problem um I'm living in Australia with the cost of living crisis is out of control but central banks Don't Care About Us they care about governments they have to make sure they can Finance government spending and when interest rates are at 4.55% in US dollar in US 10 years they've got a problem right so the amount of interest that the US government is paying to service the

outstanding debt you know I can't remember ordos of magnet where it is but it's like I think the second or third High um biggest line item on the US government budget right now so central banks are there to serve governments not the other way around as much much as they say that they're independent the point being is they need to do something to get yields down they need to make sure the dollar doesn't keep rising and Destroy Global risk and they will probably start adding liquidity very soon as much as it doesn't feel like it right now because everything's very tight and then really Global M2 at about 104 trillion usually expands around 30% in each cycle so bottom at 90 low 90s this cycle and so

from my extrapolation we've got probably you know another 20 trillion and and if you look at the sort of the phases of expansion really that lead that led me to think that on average q1 of 2026 would be when Global liquidity starts to pull back or be rained in now maybe it's not as big this time round because you've got a different Administration you've got a different uh treasury secretary he's got a different view on uh monetary and fiscal policy but the point being is that um even the Trump Administration wants rates lower so they can service the debt uh and get on with their job of of of delivering growth and reforming the um the US economy so you know q1 of 2026 is kind of where I

thought it it could potentially end and then that sort of if I just sort of Peel back when risk assets tend to price in that that led me to say a research report for real vision for our Pro crypto Community it was about um uh August of 2025 give or take there's you know there's bands around this before and after um and that's where that's sort of where I anticipate things to you know to start looking like it could potentially uh well it should top but of course markets will overshoot and undershoot depending on what happens you know in the in the real world not Insider analysts models yeah I mean at least you're a mo you got a model and not just a predict

because everybody's got a prediction you're you're you're you're coming in a lot of research and a lot of good thinking behind this okay so let me just uh let me just summarize this really quickly uh liquidity moves markets more than anything we predict liquidity will go up consistently throughout 2025 ending around q1 2026 move backwards from there we get to a Q3 2025 you're saying August of the peak of the market you did mention that M2 is not going up yet and that seems a little bit off is there anything what would you be watching for that would make you say like oh M2 is not not going to increase at this 20 trillion rate that I think it

might is that a possibility or is it literally just like slam dunk this is going to happen don't worry about it yeah Global liquidity or sorry Global M2 at 104 trillion is up from 93 trillion at the bottom of 2000 sorry of 2022 around sort of November 2022 the bottom so it's up now what drives this is two things it's credit Creation in the economies that make up the aggregate but also the dollar so if the dollar to answer the question I think it's it's almost a formality that it goes up it doesn't feel like it right now because the dollar is rallying hard but that to me signals That central

banks are going to start really being very conc concerned that this could unravel things andever there's dollar strength things break so the it's almost like the the more the dollar starts to um starts to rise the closer we get to interventions but that just means that in the in that um period that markets risk assets usually underperform like we've seen I I highlighted this really in early December um now no one wanted to hear it because it was the Trump post Trump rally but I was saying like under these conditions generally crypto does um doesn't perform as well as it does typically of course we had a pullback we haven't had much of a pullback 10 to 15%

is really in in Bitcoin now in um old it was about 25% maybe more in in a lot of maybe more in some yeah which seems about right in terms of the beta that they have but essentially that just uh means that the secular Trend right so there's two things that I look at the monetary there's two Trends basically that underscore why you should be invested in crypto there's the monetary situation the de basement that governments and central banks need to do to service the debt ongoing unrelenting and then the secular Trend towards uh blockchain adoption so it just tells me that the underlying beard for blockchain assets is very strong because we didn't really see much of a we we didn't see as big a pullback as I would have

anticipated the dollar is still very very concerning so I think that gets us to a point where number one central banks should I should be according to my thinking whether they will or not of course is a different thing they should be um enacting um measures and then the second thing is that really when that happens the asset class will continue to explode because really the the relative strength of the performance during December and into early January has been pretty strong I would say given the macro backdrop so I think we do get to you know that 120 trillion plus by the end of it but the large really the defining variable is the

dollar okay and if you're watching the dollar any what are you watching for there what do you what do you want to see what do you not want to see I don't want to see you know if for me being exposed to crypto asset class A A dxy breaking above 110 it's now 108 is very concerning remember it got to 113 114 at the peak of the inflation scare in 2022 and we had all things break we had UK Pension funds pull out the uh you know the silver bowl asking the central banks to help batt them out which they did um there was trouble in Japan there was a banking crisis in the US things

unravel pretty quickly when you've got you know what they call the Dollar wrecking bll um moving through emerging markets and and and risk ass and risk markets but it's the banking system that's is really where the action is no now we don't have those inflation concerns this time and hopefully we don't have any of those Black Swan events either not not that we know of right now inflation's sort of higher than you know you see the central banks are now moving the goost you know used to be a 2% Target now they they're trying to get people comfortable with three we'll live with three if it gets to four they'll probably have to like take the take the um foot off the accelerator if they're adding liquidity because optically they have to be uh seen to be doing the right thing by for us right for us for for for the people

right right right right okay um okay let's let let's pause there for a second because I do want to I want to shift gears because we're gonna we could go forever on macro talk here and I want to shift to my second question I had at the beginning of the episode which is what are your top five conviction assets right now I'm gonna say your top three because uh we talk enough about them on the show so you got Bitcoin eth and soul uh would love to know your predictions for each of those three in in the next year just give us your predictions but then I want to go to suie and near H those are tokens that we don't talk as much about on the show and when I I want to be

clear when you say your top conviction tokens for everybody listening the way Jamie thinks is very much based on probability and risk rewards so this isn't necessarily like the meme coin or the AI agent that he thinks is good a 1000x this is the what is a he believes to a strong investment High conviction investment um so give us your predictions for Bitcoin Ethan soul and then let's talk about Su and near uh so I'll start with Bitcoin um if Global liquidity if if Global M2 and central banks come to the party and and add liquidity or at least um you know QT is ended and um various measures are implemented that are not called QE because they'll call them different things be adding like the term QE I think is dead like you know they have PR

people are go look you know people have wi up to what Q fine we'll call it by some other name and then we'll tweak M2 is expanding M2 is expanding that's yeah essentially they essentially they're just trying to invigorate Banks to lend and that's what drives them to it's credit creation by the banking sector which is the you know creation of new debt which is currency in our fiart world So based on based on that extrapolation it it appeared to me based on the modeling that I did that you know Bitcoin should get to about 180 well specifically my model said 189,000 but it was based on different layers of of risk and so anything between sort of 170 to 200 I think is is quite feasible this this cycle eth have actually you know I've got I right about eth but it's

definitely not it's it's definitely not in my top pick I think eth can get to about I think modeling I did was around a trillion so that would imply a six to seven 67,000 um price Target um sorry so Ethan is not in your top five forgive me for for saying that then yeah it'd be close it's not in the top five but it's a you know it's an asset that I personally hold it's part of my it's part of my portfolio um I don't think it'll do quite as well but I think it's it's it's now primed in the the part of the cycle will outperform Bitcoin and I'll outperform other assets but I think other assets will outperform it so I still I'm still bullish on eth um the whole space in in

the the whole collectively the market cap of um the the crypto ecosystem based on the top 200 coins and I use an index provider called bit formats which is actually something you can basically access through their website as well top 200 but I thought that the total the total market cap so it's about 3.5 the top 200 is about 3.3 and so and like I did this modeling a couple months ago but anyway long story short I think the um space gets to about seven or eight trillion this cycle and that would imply a Bitcoin market cap if you look at sort of Bitcoin dominance that around 50% is well over three trillion now the other SE if you look at that in terms of just the the beta and the outperformance you

generally get from when you go out the risk curve in the space when Bitcoin does that sort of performance you can start sort of thinking about like where other sectors will sort of get to and so what some of the other l1s could potentially get to the the two l1s that I'm that I'm really interested in and have written about for the pro crypto Community was SOI which we you know picked up at I think a $160 what a well done yeah so an interesting one so I've probably jumped a little bit ahead because we haven't talked about Soul so Soul you know has I think suffered over the last couple of months because there's been sellers you know of the estate and there's also been profit taking after the exceptional run that it had in the first half of this Crypt bow Market but I think it's Consolidated

well and then you've got all these positive catalysts that are starting to come through whether it's just the the the level of um fee activity that's happening on the salana chain at the moment is now on some days Dex volumes over overtaken eth and the and the eth network then so you look at that fees relative to the market cap and it has so much more growth for expansion from a valuation perspective and yes for those that are um you know everyone on your channel Jays uh understands that there's value in these crypto assets fees is like the underlying metric which really is like the golden source of truth but you know I still speak to a lot of traire people and you have to tell them and explain to these things cash cows and making a lot of money now the

multiples on the fees is well above what they would be paying for an well maybe not Nvidia because that's trading on a crazy multiple but other tech stocks they're used to so the point being is they're growing a lot faster than Tech and Global adoption is still at the very early stages so there's you know in some cases depending on liquidity the multiples are Justified so I think soul will do really really well you've got five answer coming out and you've got all of this AI activity it's really happening on Two Chains right now so if you really before we get into that whole discussion about AI if we have time if you want to take a picks and shovels approach and not try and play the AI agent game which I think is as treacherous as as picking meme coins you

want to own the assets which are going to benefit from the activity and the activity takes place on two chains and so that's Bas and salana so that's a now a deao player which I think we'll we'll see actually start to appreciate where I perform now the other two like Su is an interesting one if you look at sort of the the way give me your price target for uh for soul quickly just before we move on from that I think you said six 660 I think is what you what you that's right sound right we can bring it up it sounds about right I think I know you you wrote this report maybe a month or two ago so I'm I'm I'm stretching your memory no

actually I wrote this report back in October which was great because it's played out it's going well it's going well you know what you're talking about turns out yeah so I think salana I've got it here and we can show this I'm sure price Target or the I put it into market cap terms of more than 300 more than 300 billion so at the time it was 74 so that was a 450% return over the next sort of 12 months in my thinking right so the the other one is um sui and if you're trying to look for like what's the next upand cominging L1 there's a there's multitude to choose from like we've got at this point in time an over supply of blocks of block

space right um so it's a incredibly challenging task to try and pick the next salana the next upand Comer but sui is I think on a growth trajectory where number of active addresses the number the um the fee Revenue that they're generating is starting to convince me that they the next breakout L1 now they have an excellent team and they've got a new well not a new programming language but because they built this while the team was at Facebook which tells you about the caliber of the team but they've brought it over to crypto and the reason why it's really interesting is that it's object orientated programming language which is better suited to transfer value type transactions which is essentially at the

core of what blockchains are and what that means is that um it just it does two things number one it removes a lot of smart contract risk and number two it attracts web 2 who are familiar with the move language and the creator of the move one of the creators of move language is part of the SE team so I found that quite interesting but it wasn't enough for me to get interested until I started to see because I track the fundamentals the fundamentals the key metrics if you there's tons to look at but if you distill them down into three active addresses fees and also uh transactions you probably add TV on there now all of those metrics can be gamed M so there is a lot of you know a lot of spoing and a lot of sort of junk

activity that's done for whatever reason that does I guess distort but in my in my research and my analysis there's enough of a there's enough of a signal there if you know how to put these things together that tells me this has actually got Network there is Network growth and network growth is what drives value because as you start adding more um users and as dap start to join the complexity of the interactions creates that exponential growth profile Met's law and drives that asset forward if there's enough of that then it starts to you know it starts to you know build upon itself compound so so's got the potential but it's really really early I

think it's got active addresses of about 800,000 now a lot of this is sort of like incentivized from the treasury right so they're paying for users to a so you have to sort of take that into consideration but because of the underlying Tech the speed um you know the throughput I think and the team that it's starting to emerge as like the as the L1 that could be by the next cycle salana esque yeah su su just also seems to have the it has the attention which is which is half the battle in in any industry but especially in crypto and it's really captured the attention for I would say six months or so like it is we've been talking about

it you know it's it's not a major by any means but it has this it has it definitely has achieved that attention which which honestly gets me very excited especially because I believe that the team is capable of creating that attention and that is that's really what you need attention doesn't create itself you need to be have the team that can do that or have a meme coin like Pepe uh so let's go to oh before give us your um your prediction for for suie for this cycle what do you think suie could do in terms of market cap yes so I thought it could it could basically get to it could get to around 50 to 60 billion if my memory says me right so you know that's

about a 10x that was based on based on where it was in October so it's done 10x yeah in October so it would be about that would be about a four 4X from here we sitting about 15 billion right now yeah and that's pretty optimistic I mean like when you actually look at the amount of Supply that has to be vested over time and that fully diluted market cap would be somewhere in the vicinity of like you know four or 500 billion which is you know more than where salana is today but that's kind of like where things can potentially get to in a crypto bull market yeah things don't make sense sometimes when you get into a bull run uh and it it can it can seem crazy some of these numbers but they're uh they're

not we'll get we we will see some things go this direction we don't have a crystal ball do your own research make your own decisions not Financial advice and all that okay let's go to near near was interesting it came up on my radar at the at the beginning of the year because the the explosion in um activity on chain now near has not incentivized it's a different it's a actually a very different play and that's the reason why I liked it what do I mean by that so NE went from essentially no users in Q3 of 2020 uh sorry 202 where are we 2025 so 2023 time flies um no users maybe 20 30,000 there was no activity on the chain and it just went vertical now has about three million daily active

addresses now what's interesting here is that it's very concentrated in a couple of daps one of the one of the daps that near is um that which is driving a lot of the usage is actually a an a um web app available mainly in Asia and it's essentially a shopping app it's say on your lock screen you can opt in for this um this application right on your phone which just sends you um based on where your location is discounts deals for shopping like it's nothing in it's nothing genius what's genius is that in order to facilitate an extremely large number of transactions they couldn't use

traditional rails because the the fees on stripe and Visa just did not make it viable so they moved to NE as the infrastructure for processing payments now they do a ton of transactions but a lot of the transactions don't hit the blockchain because they batch them so they're effectively representing about 25 million users but on chain it shows up as about like two right so that's fascinating to me because it was the first consumer application use of blockchain that really went mainstream point being is that as a user of that of that phone application you have no idea that you're using blockchain and that's Point that's it right there that's it

right there right there wait what's that app called it's called Kai Kai Kai I've never even heard of this it's in Asia mainly it's it's in other countries as well apparently they're rolling it out globally so I thought based on the level of activity based on the fees that was generating relative to the market cap near looked undervalued then you layer on the fact that Ilia and the other ERS are ogs of the AI space I mean wrote the Transformers paper in 2017 co-wrote it he Nia was an AI company that wanted to pay all the contributors and developers globally but couldn't use traditional payment rails so they started a

blockchain so they started near right and now they've gone back to their Roots now they're sort of I would say late because of the meta that's growing up around the space and it's happened other chain so you know whether Nia can execute on this very very bold strategy of building the world's biggest llm based on parameters which is like 1.3 trillion versus like the open AI models which are hundreds of billions at this point is extremely ambitious but it's and that ambition which I think is very interesting at the moment they have not attracted the sort of activity the def activity which drives the value to the Token as much as well by any stretch compared to a salana

so you're really buying um you know the potential for them to execute on this strategy but I like the fact that they have applications which are completely different to essentially a lot of the value in crypto is driven through the defi space into blockchain fee Revenue they have sort of focused on another thing and consumer applications which I think is a nice diversifier but admittedly they need to drive defi activity to improve the token and if they can execute on that and they can execute on the AI aspects I think um based on where the market cap is it looks undervalued to me yeah I love I love the I did not know about Kai Kai and that is that's huge for near to me near has near has the AI narrative and

so that alone is going to have such an effect which sort of leads to our last question here and I know we're we're we're nearing time Jamie do you have do you have a few more minutes to hang with us to finish off I talk about Defi and AI okay great so want to chat about which sectors will outperform in 2025 you and I are chatting before the show about Defi and AI you wrote a report recently on D D5 make def Renaissance D5 making a comeback you know it it had its moment back in D5 summer and certainly kind of lost its luster but since really in Q Q4 2024 had a great rip and for for a lot of good reasons a lot of incredible fundamentals there the

fundamentals have always been there just uh the users were struggling maybe because of regulation for for a big part but tell us tell us your your thoughts on def5 so defi just underperformed for a long period of time so a lot of the analysis that I do I look at relative charts based on um sector performance and things like that and then look at sort of if a sector starts to relatively outperformed look at which assets within that sector are outperforming the sector as well so it's sort of layer approach but you had a situation where as you point out like regulation well the lack of Regulation like this completely vindictive out Lun regulator crazy just crazy um had had ruined ruined the opportunity and then you you started to

see amazing thing like there was a um there was a presentation made by one of the FED Governors his name is Waller back in September or October where he was literally he made a presentation on how complimentary defi is to the banking sector like the opportunity to capitalize on this technology and friction from and and transaction costs and all the and all the pain that we experience with our financial institutions is so immense like the one thing I come back to is like you can't get out of this debt spiral as a government just by just by artificially suppressing interest rates you have to grow and so global global GDP is maybe 100 trillion the banking the financial

services industry is about 20% of that roughly now most of that is like they're providing good services and whatnot but quite frankly they in other aspects they're not and the amount of friction that we pay for settlement fees that you know and settlements that take days but the fees that are involved that's friction that's taken out of the global economy that could be unlocked to actually grow our way out of this debt spiral so defi is an answer and I think we're on the cusp of defi just being accepted and when I think about traditional investors when they come into the crypto space where will they sort of focus their attention on first they'll look at blockchain they'll look at Bitcoin they'll look at blockchains themselves because fees make it easy to

model but defi is just a sector that is easy for them to get in a sense that you can look at the look at the number of users look at the um the services they're provide and compare them to traditional World sectors look at the multiples they're trading on and start making some some um you know qualified sort of investment Fe of calls if you look at def applications relative to blockchains if you compare them compare the market cap divided by the fees you in some cases these um defi Protocols are trading at 90% discounts to salanas and me and ethereums and the L1 so the question is where does the value acur over time I think the value URS up the

stack away from the blockchains to the applications because they're the ones that really own the customer and that over time means that the value balance actually should start to shift so I'm very fond of like the defy sector for that reason I think you know there's um like Aerodrome on on base is looks attractive because they're benefiting from the AA meta but also just doing a ton of activity and I think these exchanges decentralized exchanges decentralized um derivatives Protocols are the is the technology upon which tokenization will leverage eventually so the Unis swaps of the world um showing the way to basically you know trade efficiently um assets and as more assets

come on I think they'll they'll naturally benefit as regulations lift or become clearer they will benefit and as the traditional growth investor that um owns technology or invests in technology stocks starts to look at blockchain they'll be looking at defi yeah it it sounds so obvious when you when you break it's a it's a better technology to do something that is not working as well as it could and and and I had never really thought about from the perspective of it it also could get us out of the the debt crisis by increasing GDP I mean winwin let's go what are we all waiting for sounds yeah it's it's going to happen and I think you mentioned a couple great tokens there the other thing that could get us out of the debt crisis is AI what are your thoughts on crypto and Ai and that

sector for 2025 I think it's going to drive the The Meta for the next for the until the cycle ends I think um I looked at um Global sorry Google searches for the big hype cycles of of of old so you know whether you're looking at crypto or we're looking at defi or nfts and looking at their trajectory in the hype cycle it usually goes for about six 6 to 12 months um you could argue that the AI agent meta started in November so I think we've got at least four months to go and that sort of should duve tail into the you know the peak but I think there's a distinction to be made here a lot of the AI agents um they operate on a spectrum between like you know dumb AI not right term but like you know level

one use Dum let's use dumb I like that IQ higher than me so SM um but they're they're just starting off like the common criticism that'll be leveled on it is like oh it's just a social media bot or um you know it's a it's an influencer that can create video well I mean that in and of itself is amazing the utility comes from the complexity of services that they start providing Beyond just what they're doing currently and it's all coming so it will drive Dex volumes uh it will drive derivatives volumes it will drive new services on chain and so it is the it is

the new application layer for blockchain it abstracts the complexity of using a wallet of using smart contracts and will be in time the interface for Boomers gen xers like me and everyone who's not involved in the space who just finds it who just finds it more complex and it's worth its effort because you'll just be talking to your AI and your AI will be executing when you start thinking about you know black rock and all these Financial companies wanting to tokenize things the composability of blockchain and more asset trading and more value transfer with a simpl to use interface like an AI that knows you and can start

doing either things on your behalf or you know either self-directed or directed by you that's all to be determined but it's it's incredibly promising so the AI agent space is is is just like blowing up I don't think that's where I will be investing um okay okay I will be investing in the the tooling yeah that creates the agents so the infrastructure plays and it's so early that there's going to be tons of disruptions but you You' got the leaders at the moment the ai6 Z's and the virtuals zerob Bros they're all sort of building the platforms upon which agents can be created there will be more to come it'll get diluted it'll get crazy but I think that that some exposure is

warranted to those infrastructure plays even though they've they're red hot and they've they've run up a lot that's why I always say to my my subscribers is it's all about position size you know if you're if you're putting 50% of your capital in one of these hot sectors after after it's run 500% in the next over the last sort of three months then you're going to feel pretty dumb when it does the typical 50 to 70% correction the next day but if you've got the right position size you can sort of look through the volatility and hopefully you know pick up something that will um give you some some good Alpha over the over the duration of the cycle and won't um yeah won't make won't cause too many sleepless nights or um fights with wives and husbands yeah just and that's really

one of the keys to investing right is just set yourself up to not feel like you're going to puke when something happens in the markets that will happen throughout a bull cycle so don't think about think about it before you make an investment and I agree everybody should have some allocation I think non Financial advice but to I love the virtuals we've been talking about virtuals on the show a ai6 that as well and then and then here's and and Zer bro as well but here's the the tough part is like now there's so many right like there you can just see all the ones that are starting to pop up and it's going to it's going to happen very quickly and and it's getting tough to know which ones have been building in for a few years versus which ones are just

catching the narrative and catching the meta and so yeah it's going to it's gonna get it's going to get tricky and so I think have the stomach because it's going to be ups and downs so I think I always like personally I like to make those High conviction bets for not not short term like hold it at least for a good part of the cycle yeah I look I totally agree you're going to get a lot of dilution in the space but I think um I I sort of fall back on the notion that you know Network effects are incredibly important and so you have got leadership coming through from the virtuals and the ai6 Z's already if you look at the amount of downloads or the GI of activity from ao6 C's um open source you know AI agent framework and model that is creating the

network effects I think that should see it do reasonably well for the rest of the cycle of course there'll be new entrance all the time but you know virtuals is slightly more close model um from what I understand approach so that's fine I mean you know we've got apple and we've got Google and they they they have their own um they have their own approach and I think there's definitely room but um yeah I think the early leaders I still think will be okay because they've got the network effects and the lead on other ones yeah very well said Jamie this has been a fantastic conversation thank you so much for your time today everybody listening in if you don't already follow Jamie on Twitter you're going to want to if you guys don't follow real Vision you're going to want to follow them too Twitter

YouTube all their podcasts all their content is amazing greatly appreciate everything that you shared with us today thanks so much for joining us Jamie thanks very much for having me Jay awesome thanks for listening everybody we'll see you again tomorrow have a wicked awesome day as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free five minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one

resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day