What's Next For Crypto After the Fed Rate Cut? | Roundup

Transcript

I think the other big variable which it feels like we're pretty close uh potentially to hitting is quantitative easing versus quantitative Tiding that may be a 2025 change um I'm not sure if that'll change this year but it should be on the horizon next year and yeah I mean that's just liquidity getting pumped back in the the things that I am curious about are how much of you know a month and a half ago there were1 14 trillion dollars in money markets in the US where does that money go hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Supra the vertically integrated L1 for super daps uh they've a very cool new product coming out called Supra containers so head over to supra.com that's

supra.com containers so if you're building on an L1 and it feels a little bit crowded or the complexity of L2 and l3s are getting you down just head over to Supra they'll get you sorted thank me later all right everyone welcome back to another episode of bell curve before we jump in quick disclaimer the views expressed by my co-host today are their personal views and they do not represent the views of any organization with which the co-hosts are associated with uh nothing in the episode is construed or relied upon as Financial technical tax legal or other advice you know the deal now let's jump into the episode all right everyone welcome back to another round of AEL curve you got Michael's wed to advance the fellas are

back it's been a minute guys rip it and rip it we're back it's uh a lot has happened in how many weeks has it been since we did one of these three weeks I yeah three weeks maybe a month something like that too long um yeah I mean we were you know traveling in token 2049 breakpoint which we'll get into we had our AGM which is basically like all of all of the LPS of the fund came to SF and you know talked about you know current and future plans and we also got new new head shots done let's go have you looked at them Michael no I haven't seen they're good they're good I mean when you get head shot done they get give you like a 100 photos some of them look like we're like the leasing team for the building like like Douglas Elman you

know like about to lease you some office space there's some really good ones though so head shot dropping soon big Alpha that's huge uh yeah know9 once we we had a we had someone come in I don't think we've gotten head shots taken since like 2019 or something like that which is just so dumb but they they the photographer was like have you heard of squinching have you heard of this it's something that everyone does you're supposed to do it with your eyes like you got to make your like the lower part of your eyes kind of come up I don't know I couldn't do it I looked like a freak when I tried but that's apparently uh this what you're supposed to do for these uh yeah I don't think we're uh the most natural photo takers the first head shot session we had they were like do

you want us to play some music like you guys are so awkward like want to loosen up you want to drink dude literally um but yeah it's been it's been a busy few weeks traveling all this stuff you know lot going on basically without saying too much I got questions for you guys I I mean I I mean I caught up with Yano Yano did the 20 49 and breakpoint circuit for for us so I got like some of the download but I'd be C like what was the experience like in Asia this year looked like it was pretty electric I mean you know because they don't have a domestic and they being kind of like broader Asia there's no like YC there's no domestic Tech ecosystem so like crypto is basically tech for everyone

there and all of those people think about binance not the New York Stock Exchange in terms of like their entrepreneurship opportunities um so Asia's just kind of always on and it's kind of become the spiritual home of of crypto at least for now and I think that will change when the US has better regulatory Clarity but um it was certainly a mad house at token um I mean we can kind of go through the quick hits of uh you know our conversations there but I think bar chain you know with with token 2049 had a particularly strong showing and you know we're investors so we're biased but a lot of people excited about um proof of liquidity and alignment and you know one of the discussions is like are there

too many l1s are there too many l2s and I think in some sense there probably are um but where the industry has struggled is like aligning them yeah like if you're not built on eth or you eth line if you're an L2 built on eth and like Max Resnik you know obious viously hits this pretty hard on Twitter but it is a core concern and I think that was uh buttressed by the launch of network extensions on salana and you know projects like helium and Zeta markets which are pretty notable moving towards that model and so like our long-term thesis has been that we're going to have this multi-chain and like frankly L1 L2 dichotomy just because there's natural incentives to sell your own block space just another Revenue item for people um

and frankly you get a higher valuation by doing so um but like addressing that and and how you you like you know how do you get people to stop launching their own L2 do you like just tell them not to you just tell them to stay on like doesn't work doesn't work like that yeah so we're moving to an Era of like the advancements in l1s are probably not like speed and cost space I think we have an over bundance of block block space at the moment but more so like alignment and I think Bara is kind of the one that's kind of like really tried to hit that on the head um but you know it's just like wild and crazy in Asia always you know people are speculating people are you know what are we going to get long on like what are we

done with I don't think you know there's a ton of takeaways other than you know the eth soul uh kind of back and forth like Kyle making the soul flipping eth presentation we'll see how that ages um and I think people are also excited about new chains RIT large like the the chains that are popular today are kind of things that have launched in Prior Cycles but you know I think there's excitement for like you know there's always a market for being new to something and be it monad be it hyper liquid be it Bara like it does feel like people are kind of waiting for those and um yeah just positive overall I don't know Michael agree with all those takeaways I mean I think the sentiment

was also something that was palpably different this go around this is the first conference that I've I've seen probably in the last I don't know two two and a half years um maybe like permissionless 2022 was that is that that was kind of like the last one right that was Miami um Palm Beach yeah Palm Beach um this feels like the first conference just from a sentiment perspective where it's like okay everybody's coaling around the same stuff um I Heard the numbers I think this one was 20,000 attendees last year token was 10,000 uh massive scale massive size but you know a double A year-over-year I think is is very positive but it was just more like

the boots on the ground sentiment everybody's happy excited working together um you know there are definitely like some funny moments looking at the videos of the Lion outside the club for the bear chain event on Monday night just absolutely gargantuan line uh even Smokey was having a tough time getting into his own party um the uh I you know here bro exactly exactly uh the uh I heard really positive things from some of the side events too um we were investors in open social but evg had a really good presence um and they actually announced that they have 200,000 daily active users on open social uh which you know

is it's an open platform consumer platform um yeah her one one of the members of our team went to breakpoint and said um you know the breakpoint event was really really positive um yeah I think it it was just a good time good time all around and um it it felt like you kind of get these boots on the ground perspectives I know when we were frankly starting framework in 2019 uh we started it in July and we went to uh Devcon which is in Osaka in September or maybe October um and that was kind of like let's let's let's like assess this whole defi thing like let's try to figure out you know whether or not this is real and it we walked away from that being like oh this is real this is

definitely where the part's at um and and this one just felt like oh the party still with crypto um there's a lot of lot of really good stuff coming out of it yeah it just feels like I mean even just catching up with yo a little bit about the week as well just feels like there's a lot more energy and you know he was showing me just the amount of people that were in some of these telegram chats or that signed up for groups like telegram like ton got like 11,000 people to sign up for their side event thing that just doesn't happen at US based conferences anymore I mean just this is me with my blockworks hat and just looking at like the US conference scene has been kind of cleared out relative to even Europe and Asia it's a completely different landscape than it

used to be even a couple years ago and it makes sense right because you know lawyers you know literally advise protocols that they can't you know present or talk about their protocol in the US so obviously that's the case right well and yeah I mean that that's a very good meta point too it's like the geographical differences uh I I think Europe is starting to see some of the green shoots and frankly this all stems from regulation this all stems from like okay Ma now you have a framework for how usdc can become like one of the regulated stable coins you know die in the whole ecosystem around or sorry Sky now usds like there there's like paths uh to that and you know we we like the there's a really prominent protocol that

we met with while we were in Singapore they were all us-based and they were building this in the US and like six months ago they're like nope we're moving to Singapore now because we actually know like what the rules are like that they're going to be a multi-billion dollar protocol probably when they launch and you know that is a that is a loss for the us but Mas in Singapore you know there's right and there's wrong there's black and there's white like we just we it goes back to regulations but it is very very obvious that Asia is frankly where crypto is happening first the the other interesting conversations that we had had were with exchanges and um I think the the notable points there are you know the subtext of

a lot of the conference and a lot of projects is like it's just harder to get listed than ever on the major exchanges and and we did an analysis of you know what what's the last coin that binance listed um Nero was the last one and that's kind of an Ethel one meme coin you know who knows why they they listed that but before that it was banana in July and so you know they are really tightening up listing requirements and I don't think those two examples speak to like the direction that they're going to but you know exchangers want to see adoption they want to see traction they want to see earnings they want to see all this stuff and they have kind of acknowledged their position as like The Gatekeepers to retail which I think is a really positive sign um and so you know

that kind of benefits different types of projects I would say you know defi definitely was notable at the conference a maker um and probably hyper liquid as well well uh just like on the okay they have fundamental side dpin I think we're still trying to figure out exactly which verticals within dpin have product Market fit and the ability to generate earnings but like I think the exchange is like that category because it's tangible you can tell what the adoption is it's hard to bought um and then I think the last thing on exchanges is like you know FTX when it was not a scam or maybe it always was a scam but like they appeared kind of at this time in the last bare Market you know pre PTC DC eth alltime highs um and I think we see more of a

horse race between you know people like bit people like binance um and and maybe a couple of new entrance that are launching soon that will you know create more of a Level Playing Field for these exchanges where it's not win or take all you know some will be more aggressive on listing tokens and it feels like there's going to be at least one exchange that does well uh just because others are not listing things yeah the the just like to hammer the point home there used to be this strategy of okay you build it you build something you launch a token and then you launch your product that is completely borked at this point you not only have to launch your product you have to be hitting you know millions of users you have to be hitting millions of dollars of Revenue you have to be

hitting you know whatever benchmarks make sense there has to be real adoption for your protocol for you to even be considered getting listed and and that is like the the takeaway from every single conversation across the board with with centralized exchanges so I got a question for you guys on you know obviously base has been really successful on the on the coinbase side of things like there's just you know they're kind of growing you know like a weed in terms of TBL and just assets on that platform I've sort of heard rumors about some other exchanges launching their own l2s or chains or whatever I honestly I mean there'll probably be some experiments that don't end up working out but I could kind of see that working as well especially some of these offshore exchanges have huge really engaged customer bases and it's you know

pretty easy at this point to spin up an Ethel too I I don't know I could see that being actually relatively successful just running back the base Playbook I I think I totally agree I mean it's it's a super lightweight experiment to run uh I think ultimately what you're going to need to figure out is what is the core advantage to having that L2 and I think in the case of coinbase obviously it's like the operating system for all the apps that are kind of like blessed by coinbase that's one way to look at it it could also be sort of like the um you know depending on how the regulations for some of these you know um jurisdictions work out it could be like if you want to get the 50 million coinbase customers that are verified identity via coinbase that's just like an immediate you know

user base that you could tap into um like it could also be the place that uh ultimately for the same reason institutions choose to like tokenize assets like there's a lot of kind of ways that you could look at base from a competitive strategic standpoint I would question whether or not you know other institutions depending on where they are and what they are would have that same advantage or or if they have a different one what that Advantage would be on on that I mean ton telegram open network I think it is um I actually didn't meet anybody from ton or any builders in that ecosystem and maybe that was because of the you know incarceration and now I think he's out of pavl in France but yeah I mean it feels like that type of

play is much different than what Bas is doing in the sense that you know the telegram users are and we've done some analysis they're much lower average revenue per user um they're kind of more akin to like free-to-play mobile game users and I think in that light kind of what you're going to see is like you know the IMX of the world the Ronin of the world like people that have users but you know frankly are kind of like just beginning their journey to like how do you monetize these people how do you make them crypto native um we didn't see as much on ton as I expected at least I I talked to one Builder who's building a games platform on ton um and I mean the the conversation is basically like oh cool what are you doing that's neat

where are you building interesting how many users do you have and and like without even asking it was like well and and we don't expect that many of them are Bots like I think the the ton Builders are kind of like conditioned to have a very quick response to like oh these are real we we trust the numbers um but it's like really okay I mean I think it's an interesting point I think the the the devil will be in the detail in terms of to your point Advance on on Revenue um how many of these are real people that are actually spending real money yeah I mean the the other stuff on ton is like um we've seen people building like people building on eth be it on L1 or on base uh and then they deploy a telegram mini app and you have

access to the telegram users but you're not using the ton blockchain and in fact you're using a different blockchain and I think a lot of people view ton as like user acquisition that's blockchain agnostic in the sense that like they're not building on the TVM which you know we've heard frankly mixed reviews on the TVM but I don't put a ton of stock in like you know it's a bad virtual machine so the chain can't work um but we definitely saw people taking kind of like I don't know maybe it's like an extractive approach to Telegram in its user acquisition sense um and then I think the last thing that I noticed is like there are it's just such a different crowd in crypto than it has

been you know three or four years ago you have the you know the the bitcoiners you have the eth people you have the soul people but you also kind of have all these like you know maybe like meme coin influencers like I would kind of put IG is Alia in that category like she had this like really funny forget what it was called motherland party um and it definitely seems like you know there's like the tiktock ification of the uh of like the new users that are coming into crypto on the mcoin side um and my my sentiment check on Meme coins is that like they're still there they're doing well pump fund volumes are down probably 50% 60 70% something like that um they're definitely not dead I I think

we'll see what happens in a real bull market you know if they come back but it kind of felt like you know they're almost at the end of the memec coin nism uh you know end of the story and and even like mother the IGG as alot token is now like like we're building utility into it yeah so I don't know what that says about the scene but the meme coiners definitely were not uh like the prin Lings of the industry you know like they were kind of like six months ago it seems like the kind of nft open SE run a little bit and I'm not saying blur will go or pump fund will go the way of open se but there's definitely kind of like these waves of enthusiasm that are kind of you know coming and going so I I had the same sort of

thought we actually had a uh I got marad um on the show this week um who is very bullish on on mem coins in general he's a really interesting Journey from like kind of Bitcoin Maxi to mcoin uh super cycle Maxi I guess you could say but you know here's one thing that I was just thinking about when it comes to memecoins is I I've been thinking recently like how big the total target market is for people who want to buy and trade meme coins because on the one hand it's like really accessible and very honest and I get it right it's like if you just want to gamble that that's like your market and I think there is a pretty big group of people out there who just want to push a red button and guess that something's going to 100x but like my dad's never going to buy meme coins

right but he will probably end up doing something like AI coins or something like that because it's like oh AI like I'm interested in that and I'm I'm just wondering you know when you think about you know more broad adoption coming to this space I think mcoin have really good product Market fit with like a very Degen always online Internet Gambler type persona but I'm wondering if it's like the biggest person Persona in general because there are going to be a lot of people that's like this just isn't for me you know um but I don't really know what the category is that people are going to be super interested in this cycle so I would say the addressable Mark is like everyone on DraftKings and FanDuel that just wants to punt you know five to $10 on something random um yeah like I think

there is like a very and I listen to the marad interview like I think there is a c and bull case that you can lay out for for mem coins in the aggregate what meme coins like the the the more bearish case for memec coins is like there's just so many of them and there's no you know rate limiter and you can see the radium graduation rates are like infant tesly small um and you can see it in the churn data too where people come in they place a couple bets they lose you know they stop doing and that's like the same thing that happens with DraftKings and FanDuel so gives me a little bit more bias towards that being the case um but mad's point is like you know he's very bullish on this one specific meme coin like SP something I I forget what it's

called but like it's kind of like the L1 L2 problem it's like how do you get people to concentrate how do you get people to align around one or two meme coins because you can be bullish in the aggregate but you know if there's 50,000 meme coins how do you make sure that you're in dog with hat and that's like a really tough problem if you scale it across a bunch of users that's basically how I feel too it's just I'm not I whatever skill set it takes to pick dog with hat I'm not really sure I've got that as a skill sets the reason why FanDuel and draft cans exist is because you can say that the games that people are playing are games of skill it's not just gambling it's like games of skill and that's literally why they can you know be on your phone in certain States

versus you know not because of gambling rules Vance and I have a lot of history in games of skill uh because we we built one of those way back when games of skill uh but the the I I think that I mean there there is some connection to the analogy but I I think you know if the skill here is assessing Community because that's basically how you decide what which one's going to be dog with hat uh it it it's such a nebulous art I it's really it's it's hard to say that there's a science to it you know you know uh at last because I want to actually talk to you guys about just like changing market conditions and some stuff that's happened on the macro side of things but I will say I actually got to give a

little bit of credit you know uh her you know breakpoint or whatever performance aside I've never really seen a celebrity fully cross the chasm into CT culture like Iggy iselia has like you know there there have been a lot of like pretty like I don't know like you see you guys Tom Brady Tom Brady you know that y was the one who got him to put the laser eyes I don't know if he gets credit for that but he literally talked to like Tom Brady's PR guy and got the laser eyes up there but like Scotty Pippen will like tweet weird [ __ ] about him dreaming about Satoshi Nakamoto and it's like okay dude I see what you're trying to do here but you're not quite doing it he's actually got pretty good memes like go back and forth Eric Wall like you know

you got to give props where it's du like she's kind of assimilated to CT culture I don't know if that's a good thing I don't know if you should aspire to do that but like she's kind of cross the chasm she's got a vested interest yeah she do comes and goes you know a month ago when it was like you know a third of the price it was like you know this is over this is a stupid experiment like I give her credit for for getting out there and doing it the videos from that party are just absolutely I mean the videos are just a negative the suzu video just made my entire week dude just like him thrwing money and then like sheepishly like looking at the camera and being like oh no oh my God yeah that was uh yeah that's gonna

get a more whoever someone afterwards I must have I don't know where oh yeah no that was AI it's like uh no it wasn't I literally saw him at that at that event he wasn't even there well I saw him that's really funny I've been blocked by Sue so uh he's not a fan of belur probably so um that's fine I think that's okay hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Supra the new blazing fast vertically integrated L1 which helps you scale your D if you are a builder you're probably dealing with some combination of cost complexity and fragmentation of existing Solutions so you're building over an eel 2 land

everything's feeling a little bit frag segmented at the moment if you're building in salana everything is fast and on one layer but maybe you're limited in terms of what you can do with your app space so Supra is rolling out a new product called Supra containers you can head over to Supras super.com containers um to learn more they offer dedicated customizable app spaces running on Supra 500,000 TPS layer one blockchain that gives you complete control over gas tokens and fees so some cool things you can do you get the freedom to you can use your own token create local fee markets or even go gasless wherever you want so this product isn't live yet but because you're a faithful listener of bell curve you get notified first so head over to supra.com Containers thank me later all right I want to talk to you guys a little bit

about uh just the sentiment shift and some things like again it's been a couple weeks since we've talked but we got a 50 basis point rate cut uh here and we've also there's also been stimulus over in China so China also did the PB did a 50 basis point cut on the monetary side they've also rolled out fiscal measures and I mean it's it's everything from you know basically like they're they're almost lending money so that people can go and buy stocks over there so I think it's it's just one cut short of the dry like whatever it takes uh energy that's coming out of there and I don't know if you guys saw Tepper you know get on CNBC and he had a pretty famous 2010 interview where he just said buy everything and he they said the same thing you know buy everything yeah

Futures stocks real estate whatever just buy everything with both hands and you know I gotta be H it's it's it's looking like things are going up so how are you guys feeling about the old markets I mean look it's definitely I I think it became obvious in the week maybe two uh before the 50 basis points that 50 was going to be the call uh but that didn't feel obvious a month ago uh or or a month prior um so that I think was somewhat of a surprise um I think now the the market is pricing another 50 bips by the end of the year so you know a 100 bips 1% um in in three meetings is pretty big um yeah and I think look the the the

China situation got so bad that it's now looking good I don't think the US is in kind of the same situation I think what's driving a lot of the China situation stems from what has been the overhang of real estate over the last few years it's just gotten so bad um it's it's become this dead weight on the entire populace there that um you know Banks need help consumers need help um I mean this was also kind of the conversation that we were having with a bunch of people who are are more in the node than we are um around China that we were having in Singapore um and yeah I feel like the macro Market is going to become is going to move from a headwind to a Tailwind uh if it hasn't technically done that

already I think the other big variable which it feels like we're pretty close uh potentially to hitting is quantitative easing versus quantitative Tiding that may be a 202 25 change um I'm not sure if that'll change this year but it should be on the horizon next year um and yeah I mean that's just liquidity getting pumped back in the the things that I am curious about are how much of you know a month and a half ago there were 14 trillion dollars in money markets in the US where does that money go you know is it g to like where is the net you know let's say okay it goes from 5% to 4% you're like H 4% not quite really cutting it for me I'm going to

take some money out and put it somewhere where is that average dollar going is it going into things like Nvidia or the NASDAQ or is it going into you know things like crypto hire risk higher reward or are you putting that in you're not putting that in t bills uh or or sorry bonds um it it is kind of the question as to like where does NE next marginal dollar go I think crypto actually has a pretty strong positioning there um as to as to be the the thing that you know it seems like Nvidia has hit at least some sort of like not top but the the out of control growth has slowed um very interesting stuff that

was going on related to Nvidia this week with open AI um we don't have to get into it but very interesting to see that happen um and then yeah I think you know there's going to be great places to put money and all these places are going to be you know know good it's just like how do you pick the fastest horse and it feels like crypto is wound right now and I think people will recognize that it'll be like a quick Catalyst and it'll just be a flood um and maybe the election is that Catalyst yeah I I think um we have been very positively surprised at LP interest turning back on for crypto and it's due to a couple of reasons I think number one the prognosis

for traditional ventur is just so poor there's no IPOs there's no m&a that like people are like if you've gotten like we've heard this multiple times if you have distributed returns in your fund of fund or your endowment you probably are in a crypto fund because those have been the only people generating liquidity from the last seven years yeah from the last seven years so like I think the prognosis for everyone getting a Reload of capital in terms of the crypto native Venture firms is pretty good um and again it's like you know you you haven't had any of the major l1s launched the cycle you haven't had any of the major crypto funds Reise and then you look at teac and I think the deal with Nvidia is there people are you know assuming implicitly or explicitly like we've pulled forward a ton of growth uh we still need to

build all these huge data centers figure out how to power them and then see the ROI at the bottom line for you know startups of which there's kind of been you know patchy successes perplexity and open AI being the big ones and then for the biggest companies you need to see like basically your algorithms get better which allow you to sell more ads and like people were just saying like that's like a you know next fiveyear growth story so you have the stalling out of the major Tech Trends and then you know the thing that I've been looking at is gold like and I don't own any gold because I'm not 75 years old but like you look at what happened in 2019 leading to 2020 gold made a move from about you know 1300 to about 2,000 and that was kind of when this

whole like debasement narrative kicked in where it's like how are we going to finance all this covid spending you know we're not raising taxes is deficit spending is getting high and like we're kind of getting there with traditional markets right now where it's like be it Trump or KLA there's going to be a huge level of deficit spending especially with all these tax decreases that they're promising um and so people are kind of moving towards this debasement hedge where does gold top out I mean like when gold topped out in 2020 that's when the crypto trade turned on you that was gold topped in like August of 2020 that's when people were like you know bitcoin's so cheap relative to gold you know maybe we'll bid that that's when D summer happened you know that's when interest rates got lowered and you were able to do things on chain and it became

interesting to people and so I totally agree with Michael you can just tell and you've seen some prints on the ETFs both for Etha and ibit that have been pretty monstrous and you're like this is coiling and you know we're I guess 48 days away from the election at this point for 40 40 40 40 days I mean like the sentiment two months ago was like we'll see what happens to the election and then you know we'll decide to allocate but people are starting to front run that and be it buying crypto be it allocating The Venture funds like you're going to see a ton of capital coming into the industry as interest rates lower and I am a big proponent of like it is as simple as the cost of money goes down and the price of assets goes up and a lot of the the sentiment I

think can be attributed to rates at I guess they're at five now but that's still so high yeah I mean I think we're going to see another 200 bips before all of this is done yeah I think so I was just talking to um this like very you know experienced you know macro guy and you know he was he had a he had a price he had a target for you know the two-year between um I can't remember if it's two-year fed funds even though those things are pretty correlated of like 3% base case but like there's a bulid we been get going all the way down to 1% um and bro 1% let's go I mean look it's this but I feel like we have been saying this on the Pod like just wait for rate cuts and there was this crazy

narrative ahead of these rate Cuts where like somehow rate cuts are bearish it's like what are you talking about that is well it's it's a it's a confounding variable which is [ __ ] which is rate Cuts also usually stem from when there's an actual recession or an actual SC or actual issues and in this case it's actually just that our star is lower than where we are right now right well that that's what a ton of Finance is though it's like looking at extremely small data samples and way overe extrapolating yeah because sometimes the fed does have to cut in an emergency if they sense a recession coming up but that was just not what was happening here at all so yeah I mean I think that all the money in investing is made is made

waiting like you know we did the chain link Ico in 2017 we we waited you know five years for that to really take off like we did all the defi stuff in 2018 2019 that was another three years of waiting and like it's very exciting to uh invest capital in things and it's exciting to sell things when they're high but like the mental Warfare you do when when things are chopping around and like you're reading Twitter every day and people are like it's going back to 13k for Bitcoin or you know it's like [ __ ] and and I I think you know like what we're starting to see is people adjust their targets higher like I saw a few calls for you know 250k 300K BTC with like the rest of the market reating

to that point and like people are starting to trot out their targets you know it's like the the procession of like who's going to the most bullish and sailor is obviously the high Mark and I think Kathy Wood is right there with him but you know you got you see Plan B yeah we're going to a million BTC by the end of you know next year2 we're we're starting to get there and those targets only become credible once you're past the all-time high so expect that chorus to pick up what do you guys think the reaction in general sentiment is going to be once we cross 100K it's going to beor like look look at even look look at the onchain like eth gas fees are back to like you know 2025 on some days and you know the fees

pick up the narrative picks up the price picks up the fees you know follow that there is this flyh that takes off and I mean it just like crypto sounds more credible when the prices are higher when bitcoin's at 17K it's like this is a scam when it's at 100K it's like this is actually new gold and eth is the new Nvidia and you know waiting for that stuff is really hard but that is where the money is made well and it's it's because what it does is it puts all the naysayers behind and we we still have I mean just in conversations with people you know that are you know institutions LPS it it's still like yeah well what's what's the take here and all that stuff gets a lot more quiet when you're like oh you

know e fees are working it's deflationary oh maybe a a monetary monetary Hedge for the US government in in the form of digital gold which is Bitcoin and also when you have a lot of this activity happening on chain that incentivizes the growth of these platforms like if you have the flywheel start to pick up these things get bigger and bigger and I also think that that's kind of one of the other things that we haven't seen yet sustainable growth for all the people that have been building for the last three years where if you do start to see a reaction from the market um in some of the longer tale assets you know incentives for Hive mapper helium demo um you know dpin start to get actually huge and and the the waiting around the the mining of these uh you

know these ecosystems uh becomes real value which then incentivizes more activity on the ecosystems like all all the stuff starts to feed back in an incentive flywheel um if if Market reaction comes back um and so I I think that's the other element here too is you're actually going to see user growth once you see you know some of this price action uh I got a question for you guys oh completely agree with that uh just sorry to that last point Michael um yeah like I completely agree with that and I've been saying this a lot on this pod but you know we're a media company we have a media back end like we have really good data across like what a bull market looks like and what a bare Market looks like and even as prices have gone up like activity and Views have gone up

a little bit but it's not it's nothing like what 2021 was and I think we're just waiting for there yeah there's like price leads narrative follows and then you know users follow after that and I don't know I don't know if that's like a Bitcoin all-time high convincing break I don't know if it's like the over the 100K Mark or whatever it is but I think it's price related it's like it's it's like binary are you above or below alltime high and then it's like linear from there where it's like okay we're above alltime high it turns back on you'll probably see it like you know get to 50 to 75% of where 2021 was and then as you climb higher it's just more gravy on top and like one of the things that we've been talking to institutions about is like you know you

know isn't crypto isn't there ACH bunch of shenanigans and Riff Raff and like all this stuff and like we're pretty cleare eyed about the fact that that's a yes but like that's not what we're playing for and the benefits of blockchains and crypto Protocols are undeniable and like the next era of this this crypto experiment is like we're going to build amazing things on chain there's going to be tons of users there's going to be tons of fees there's going to be new categories emerging and a lot of them W won't work but you know that's kind of part for the course or Venture and when you have permissionless Tech and you can Market tokens and you know them on chain like of course there's things are going to hit the wall but I think people are starting to see the force for the trees and the prices

help that meaningfully hell yeah that's great to hear I'd be curious what are your guys thoughts on just the election in general and whether or not like what how that impacts things because like there was there were you know people were talking about a couple of months ago that has like Bitcoin become a you know Trump win prediction market and you know people were ascribing kind of moves and the price of bit point to Trump's odds and you know I will say that like obviously there's this confounding variable if here like rate cuts and liquidity and I don't know I mean it like I think Cal's chances have been climbing but uh you know bitcoin's been going up and crypto markets have been doing particularly well so how what are your guys like upto dat thoughts yeah I think um actually

the most important thing is not kamla trump it is actually what happens in the US Senate because what so first off the the the president doesn't make the laws uh what we were just talking about in terms of geographic or jurisdictional difference has to do with a regulatory framework we saw this with the fit 21 bill that was passed in the house we now need to have uh some sort of recognition in the Senate the the word on the street at least from what we've heard is that the digital commodity act um is is probably the best version of what the Senate will support um and Schumer has come out and said that he's in support of it um you

know there's number of people on the Democratic side that are support of it but frankly this is where uh having a Republican Senate will just be like we get this done in the next one to two years um and that's the most important thing that could happen for the industry um and as well as and maybe it's like a stable coin bill that's a sidecar or maybe it's factored into it like there's there's questions as to like how we build this cohesive crypto regulatory framework um and so that's going to come from from the Senate the other factor with the Senate is that the overseer uh basically the the regulator for the SEC um who chooses the body who chooses the

commissioners of the SEC is the Senate it's the Senate banking commission um committee and um that I think is you know going to be who decides who the next SEC commissioner cftc commissioner um so so it's just furthering the point that if the Senate goes Republican that's um it's going to be positive crypto and that's what matters most independent of what happens in the white house obviously you know all the promises and things that could happen with President Trump uh versus versus Harris um are real but I think that that's actually kind of a scop for what really matters which is the Senate race and right now the Senate is like even on poly Market I think it's like 76% odds

going Republican and so we're we're very very confident that independent of exactly what happens and and you know I think the Vance can talk more about the polling but I think that's actually not um as close as people think in terms of um you know maybe the Nate silver uh election predictions um but I I think generally what we care about most is the Senate yeah and and the the head of the Senate Banking Committee is actually this guy named sherro Brown from Ohio and if you look at you know his odds you know there's been a couple of polls where he's actually losing recently and so that would represent a water a CA change in terms of you know who is

chairing the Senate Banking Committee but you know no matter who gets uh elected you're going to need uh 51 votes in the Senate to reconfirm you know the SEC commissioner confirm a new one and I think the lessons of the last administration were like Gary Gensler he's a smart guy he's done this at the cftc he's a career Bureau R you know let's just put him in there and it feels like the whole Finance you know Finance industry is pretty pissed at how that's played out there's just I mean not just for crypto you know Ken Griffin at the Citadel The Virtue guy you know he's been on Twitter you know tweeting like he's got 15 followers but he's like you know this multi-billionaire who's like going after Gary on Twitter and no matter who wins I think it's going to be

a lot more of a contentious choice just because Capital markets have come into a renewed Focus um on the election as a whole I mean I'm I've been public about this but I I do think it's going to be a trump Landslide um just looking at the polls compared to 2020 and I think what you get with a trump win is like all sorts of like Fantastical promises and you know if they come true is to be determined but like are we really going to put crypto assets on the fed's balance sheet you know are we really gonna you know do all that stuff that's the case for you know a million PTC uh by the end of 2025 and you know everything rates accordingly and I think you know to get back to the David terer interview he's like you know buy buy everything and be bullish um and I think

you know we're pretty much of the same mind um I think in crypto it's a bit harder to do that because you know with the hangsang Chinese index you know it's like allegedly higher quality companies you know bucketed into this thing that you can just buy and let it ride same with the S&P 500 Index you probably need to be a bit more Choy in crypto but I do think to some extent it is it is the right take where it's like a Rising tide lifts all boats and you know I I I think the other thing that's more important um you know given let's say that you know it's a split you know government you know if Trump wins if qu wins whatever the more important thing is like where are markets at as a whole has the Nvidia thing like you know I

remember people being like why would I buy Bitcoin or eth you know I could triple my money in Nvidia in you know a year and a half and that was true I don't think that same Prospect is true anymore where it's like you're going to double your money on Nvidia it's going to be a$7 trillion doll company by the end of next year where with crypto I think it's like probably more favorable in terms of where is it going how rate sensitive is it what is the story um so I Echo David tepper's comments where he's just like I don't really care who is president um I I do personally but like I think it's just bullish no matter what because of the larger macro landscape so just um it came out this week and and I like

I I dug pretty deep into it but if I I would encourage anyone who's interested to go check out the Gallup poll that came out this week and you know what this is you've got Fox News you got CNN you got ABC you got you know yugov there's so many different polls so much data um I I to advance this point if you're going to look at any of those polls go to Real Clear Politics and look up how that polling uh fared basically in the 2020 election cycle and and look at the bias and so it'll have a a margin of error but it'll have a bias and then it'll say where did that bias Trend basically every single one of these polls is plus or minus U is is plus two to 4% leaning almost 75 to 80% towards

the Democrats and so go back and look at some of the polls and and basically if you assume that um you know these polls are accurate you assume that somehow polling has changed uh in the last four years I'm not sure that that's the case but to go back to the Gallup poll one of the things that Gallup has been doing since the 30s is actually asking the American public over the course of July through September of an election year a number of questions it doesn't have to do with specific candidates but it's party affiliation and lean um and then questions like do you who which party is best fit to handle the most important problem you know how do you view the economy right now is the current cting president doing a good job it's like where you get all of those types of

polling answers um and Dall came out with a poll and and uh his and they've you know they show a chart which is pretty insane which is basically like the the percent of people who lean Democrat or are Democrat and lean Republican or are Republican and this is historically the best indicator of the popular vote be and just to give it as an example in in 2016 it said that Hillary would or the Democrats would have a 3 percentage point Advantage Hillary won by two and a half% in 2020 it said that the uh the Democrats would have a five-point Advantage bed one by four and a half

percent in the popular vote and for the first time in 35 years the Republicans actually have the lead in these polls it's 48% Republican 45% Democrat and even going back to it the closest that it's been historically was a tie in 2004 you you know it's post 9911 it's Iraq Wars going on um you know Bush was in office that's you know Bush won again for a second term uh but for the first time ever the Gallup pole uh or for the first time in the last 35 years I don't have the data going back to the 30s but um since 1992 the first time uh Republicans have an advantage and it's a three-point Advantage Michael

why why is it slanted towards the Republicans or towards the Democrats that much I I thought I could be wrong about this but I thought Republicans won more presidential elections than Democrats roughly over the last 50 or so years why is there's so much slanting in the data this is this is just the polling and and the reason why people pay attention to this Gallup poll is because John Gallup literally invented polling in the US and like they were doing it you know a hundred years ago and people were like how can you survey 700 people and get a representative sample and like he literally pioneered this so I think this is kind of the highest quality poll that you could pay attention to if you're going to pay attention any of them um and there's a lot of different indications that you

can kind of see in terms of you know is the electorate really shifting to the right you have another poll that people put out it's called the generic Congressional ballot poll that also shows that there's been probably a three or four point shift at the national level towards Republicans and then you look at things like you know early moting early voting by mail is starting to come in and that's shifting Republican and then you look at registrations which not all states have but a lot of the most important ones do and Republicans are closing the gap on Democrats so you know those are things that lead us to believe that it will be a pretty big Trump win um but you know we'll see I think the interesting thing is that whereas three months ago you know I maybe it wasn't even three months

ago Trump got shot uh you know this was pre- Biden pre- Biden Dropout but like post him you know kind of [ __ ] in the bed at the debate people were like you know the odds on plark got up to 75% Trump right now it's still I mean in the Nate silver average it's like you know 5050 po Market 5050 you go into election night with a 5050 split at least on these betting markets assume that's a proxy for sentiment people are unsure if he's going to win and like I could very much see that election night being the start of this melt up I I heard a hot take this week which is uh in one of our Founders has been doing a lot of market research talking to a number of Po polym

Market whales and a lot of the data that he's gotten from them is that the way that they look at Poly Market is that they view poly Market as a way to hedge uh in the case of a commo wi and so that there may be a bias uh for people who want to it's a hard thing to do like how would you hedge I guess you could like you know hedge crypto prices or something like that but um you know if you're if you're thinking about you know markets being in a negative cycle post comma in in some way shape or form it is a way to hedge yeah I mean it's obvious what you do if Trump wins right you buy everything probably you just buy the highest risk uh most interest rate sensitive assets which are crypto if KLA wins you know

what do you buy I I think you know over a few month time Horizon people are like well we're still doing deficit spending and interest rates are going down so it is like a risk asset Market but I think in the interim it's like there's no clear comma stock like there's literally even a stock with djt the JT owns 60% of like if you are bullish his chances like people along that but it is a very clear hedge to just buy KLA and I don't think you know Citadel is getting long on poly Market but it does feel like that's an option for a lot of people yeah I I don't know about the the asset price stuff um I'm assuming that it would just be more bullish if you know if Trump won but my uh the way that I I just have like a bu block works out on when I

think about a lot of these questions and I just think about like the environment the US versus other geographies just just from like a media and research and overall activity standpoint and you know there's there's actually passing regulations which is rules of the road Etc but I really think the the damper in the US has been the indictments and the SEC activity and all of that stuff like I mean literally to the point where legal firms advise protocols not to talk at conferences here because that could be used against you in a potential lawsuit later on down the road I mean that is so damning to this geography and or or FTC and SEC showing up to conferences to try and you know see if they can catch you in a in a in a false move like that that is that has happened

multiple times it's it's insane yeah so look all of this stuff I mean I would love it like let's get you know regulation pass it actually feels like something like the stable coin bill is not that difficult uh and a huge win for everyone but I I would settle for really just people not worrying about getting arrested on us soil which it's crazy but that does that is the bar I think in a lot of these cases the I think the that's totally right and I think that does end if Kamala wins if it's just like I feel like we've gotten to that point where like enough is enough uh and people are realizing that both sides of the aisle I think the sentiment right now to me it's like it's very hard to focus large amounts of the planet large

amounts of America on one thing you know it's like you got Haw Tu a girl you got you know you know she got a podcast you know all this [ __ ] happening now I can't even I can't even like think of like what the major narratives this year have been but I'm assuming it's like all pop culture but like there was that moment during covid where we were all living the same thing we were all focused on holy [ __ ] what's happening and for the next 40 days it feels like we're focused on the election collectively and like you know obviously people have different views on who they want to be president but like we're all focused and then you know you have that event horizon clear and then kind of do people think about I think people think about the next four

years of their lives and and what that looks like and I think you know a trump win will have people thinking about you know I need a second house you know I need a I need a beach house I need you know I need more risk assets I need to be very long in this America comeback story so I think it's a great chance to reset sentiment you have this very concentrated period like right right at the beginning of Co when everyone was Sheltering in place and then you have kind of like this like moment of like okay we're not all going to die you know maybe we all will get sick but like what does what does the future look like and the future is bullish I think you know either candidate um but I think if Trump wins it's going to be like Americana

effectively it's the it's the 2020 equivalent of the Dei checks hit in your bank account right it's a big stimulus check and I think in some cases that's going to be more literal um you know corporate tax rate down to 15% you know salt uh which is the state and local tax deduction for States you can can deduct your taxes paid against your federal income bill you know you have fiscal stimulus you have quantitative easing like I don't know if you could draw up a more bullish picture with people coming into election night 5050 well I mean 40 days away um and you know for me again like I really just I think that a lot of this activity in Asia is because you know crypto's a global market and there's a ton of

people outside of the us and we're in the US are probably guilty a little bit of being us but also it's because we've pushed a lot of activity out of the US and you know I don't know I mean we can do it for a couple more years but you know at some point right you push the activity out and it's like hey it's actually pretty good over here I'm just gonna stay over here and I I think that's already started and has become that that's already started and become somewhat permanent I think think think about the the hurdle that it will take to take these billion doll multi-billion dollar Deca corn level protocols that move to Singapore and and get them to come back yeah like they're they're they're gone yeah they're gone so I you're you either got to hope

for new things to come around or something to get so good here that it pulls people back I I don't see the ladder I think you got to Hope on you know new things happening obviously that's our bet as well new things will always be coming out but it it is it's like a a sad fact that we have pushed a lot of the activity to places like Singapore this administ rtion and and you know specifically the SEC has I don't think that persists in either Administration no I I agree with that so I I I think the picture is maybe Rosier than we're making it sound you know if kala wins but man like you even look at uh the Y combinator class that just was inducted and and they're going from two batches a year to four batches a year

they need more shots on goal it's literally all AI companies there's no crypto companies and the AI companies are still in this um you know like Wy coyote runs off the cliff and they're just running and you know maybe they get to the other Cliff but maybe they they kind of fail like the AI startup prognosis if that is what is going to be powering the Innovation economy in the US I would say it's pretty negative so the US needs crypto as much as crypto needs the US and and some politicians realize that and and just to double click of that specifically like the it it's the Mark andreon B horo it's tapate which is like little Tech big Tech right what crypto enables is little Tech fundamentally it's decentralized it's

egalitarian it's you know it is something where you can compete at the level of you know competition that doesn't have unfair advantages AI is structurally the opposite of that which is you know and and um Larry Ellison was just on a a conversation uh and he asked the audience he pulled the audience and he goes how much do you think it'll take to build you know a foundational model in the next five years I think it was five years and someone goes a billion dollars NOP not a billion uh10 billion nope not 10 billion no it'll it'll cost a hundred billion dollar if you want to have one of the large foundational models um and how many companies in the world have the ability to do that uh probably like three maybe five and the

only one out of you know something that was inv a company that was started this decade is open Ai and you know they've they've been you know we'll see if can get this round close I'm sure they will but like they're they're chipping away at that 100 billion you know five to six billion at a time uh and and so that I think is you know the difference here which is it's not going to be little you know ringy de paloalto startups that are able to like in a garage grow to be Google it's going to be the ones who can raise the most amount of capital I got a question for you guys so do you think that a so first of all my understanding right is the AI business model outside of like if you're own one of these large foundational models hasn't really been

figured out yet 100% but I will say even on the blockwork side of things like AI has crept its way into our product road map and like we're in the stage right now of like building things out for next year and the stuff that our engineers and even like relatively like not super sophisticated tech people on our kind of like product and data team like some of the stuff that we're able to build is pretty nuts um and it you know for relatively low cost in a pretty short period of of time um and it just kind of makes me wonder it's like yeah it makes you kind of squint at this like s like B2B SAS business model and be like how defensible is this business model really like if if you've got you know people

you know relatively you know really brilliant but like you know relatively inexperienced people being able to spin up you know features that could have been a fully loaded you know company that you raised $10 million for five years ago so so hold on a second oh who was there's some publicly traded company that on their earnings call it's a just said that they are ripping out all of their human Capital Management their customer resource management and their financial management systems SAS providers uh because they're just going to use AI tools to build these things in house that is I think a seminal moment in terms of not only are you taking some of the uh the opportunity for new

entrepreneurs to come in and build startups around AI that have you know the diaspora of different products and features where you can you know go raise $10 million and build a $400 million company kind of thing the you're also deleting business opportunity for existing SAS businesses who are just going to in-house this but going back to it Mike it's not like you're gonna have some rinky ding startup who's is the one that's building the the model that helps you build that software inhouse that's going to be Microsoft who through their model and Azure and co-pilot through GitHub are able to enable the software development just to be like one click and boom you have it and so it just goes

back to the point like AI is fundamentally centralizing yeah I agree I totally agree um and also it's just like the business model of the US in general is like hey we have this great system that enforces property rights and come build your thing here like come innovate here and we'll make sure that we get a cut of the Innovation so yeah I agree it's in the US best interest to Foster this kind of stuff the the last Point too about just like uh regulation as well it's very difficult to be overactive on the regulation side of things when prices are going up right like there's just not very much market for that and it there is a you know as prices go up and people are making money no one wants to see a Gary gendler type come in and ruin the party right so I I do think you know not

to make it all about price and there obviously are but I but I I really do think I I agree with Vance you're said that I I think even if you know we get a Harris Administration they're not I don't think my personal opinion not block works whatever I don't think they're going to be as friendly you know as a trump Administration would be but I also don't think it's going to be the end of the world either yeah I wouldn't pay too much attention to who went like look we all thought Gary Gensler was gonna you know save the industry and you totally totally wrong totally [ __ ] wrong like it's it's neither as good as you think it will be nor as bad as you think it will be the most important thing is what is the cost of money and what are the alternatives to

allocated to well and I yes that that is 100% true I I think the reason why you know that was such a Miss is because until recently until like this year nobody fully gred the fact that it wasn't actually Biden who was running you know the financial side of the cabinet or the financial side of the administration it was Elizabeth Warren and you know her ideal situation would be to have have the US banking system run by the postal service so you know that's that's like the base that we're starting with in terms of perspective and so I I think broadly it it really does depend on who's in these roles in each of these potential administrations I think we know what it'll be if it's

Trump I think that there's you know potential positive movement but I think now what has happened is the industry is so big that it's not something that a a reasonable person is going to be able to step into any Administration and expect that they're going to be able to Snuff out in the same way that Elizabeth Warren did in 2020 and so I think we've like we've jumped a shark in that respect and so I think that's why frankly no matter who the president is there's going to be constructive you know policy movement no matter what fa Fair Shake which is the uh largest crypto Super PAC them spending I think $80 million it's the largest Super PAC this cycle like crypto is on the front page of Politico in terms of you know Harris's shift to being pro crypto is

you know fragmenting the Democratic party and um those are headlines that you would never ever see two years ago it would just be crypto getting punched in the face crypto being like okay we're sorry and then just like more punches in the face now it's like a fair fight and I think to Michael's point there is kind of like this larger concept of like who whose stock is rising and falling in US politics like I think you I think Elizabeth Warren stock has has fallen pretty dramatically um and I think about like who the rising stars of the democratic party are some of them are gen z um some of them are people like Richie Torres some of them are Millennial yeah Richie Torres is amazing but like there's now a

carve out there like you know Wy niichel who's the senator from uh North Carolina is pro crypto like or house I mean there's a ton of these guys um and like you know you have to identify with a faction if you're going to be a senator or congress person you can be you know historical black caucus you can be uh know the Tea Party Guys you can be but you can also be kind of like this moderate Joe Mansion Pro Innovation pragmatist now and that was also something that was not apparent you know three or four years ago so I think it's really positive um we're we're very very bullish on crypto right now if people can't tell from the use cases we're seeing to the entrepreneurs that we're seeing and look there are not nearly as many entrepreneurs coming into this

space but the bar is so much higher for people who do want to do crypto things they usually know why they want to do it they know what it's valuable for and it's not just people launching tokens so it's a very positive turn for the industry and and maybe one element that I'd add to that which is um less hard to see from you know unless you're frankly sitting in our shoe in our seats is just the the respective uh perspectives from the institutions and institutional LPS that we have conversations with on the regular basis that are looking at okay where do I put my you know billion1 billion dollar endowment where do I allocate that to the Innovation economy in the United States or elsewhere outside the United States but the

relative tradeoff as we're discussing AI versus crypto there it's it's going to be tough for Venture funds and the Venture ecosystem the non- crypto Venture fund uh ecosystem um over the next couple of decades as you start to get some of the DPI and you know multiple numbers uh from those vintages that it'll be tough um and so I think in terms of you know how does this whole ecosystem continue to erate there is an element of what are the institutions doing because that's how you know we get Capital which we can give to entrepreneurs who are building you know the coolest things totally all right fellas um it's been good um I don't know if you guys have anything else that on your on your plate this might be more of a New York

Centric story but I don't know if you saw Eric Adams is getting indicted our mayor because he got some you know first class seats and uh s upgrade it was like less than 150 Grand in Bri in like favors yeah $120,000 in favors dude is facing 45 years in prison I look Mike I I uh I love to visit New York New York is becoming a very scary place to do business yeah even have a place like it's like o yikes yeah man it's uh I just I just you know what always surprises me about these bribery stories is how little it takes to purchase that

political favor in the US it's like I don't that that just what did he do though he expedited the Turkish Embassy being redesigned like no no just like getting the Fire Marshall to to like review it yeah by the way you know not not saying uh you know that this is ever anything uh that any of us have ever explored but there is a function within you know Departments of building in water within major metropolitan areas called expediters tell me the difference between an expedit and a briber I don't know man it's a thin line it's a thin line I don't know it's just the the era of Maximum political violence is crazy like oh you want to be the mayor your upside is maybe you become a senator

someday the downside is you go to prison for 45 years like it's sucks it'd be good to lower the temperature you know at some point little not sure just to call it out as like a start contrast and I was actually talking to Yo a bit about this and some other people in Singapore as well and I think Yano talked about this on the podcast the change the difference in Singapore politics versus the US is insane in that the smartest the most gifted kids are identified in like Elementary Middle School ages they go to a different high school they go to a different college and then they go on a political track and it is a one of the highest paying jobs you can get which is a government job uh and it's one of the

most esteem positions you can have because it's the most gifted kids and you know think about that in contrast to our political process and and the people that are running for office and I mean obviously you can't apply you know a six million person uh city state to how we should run the United States but it is an interesting dichotomy in terms of you know how you can make politics way better as if you just got smarter people in place you know I had a I have a buddy who I used to debate this with all the time but yeah it's basically he would reference the Singapore approach as well which is do you pay your politicians a lot or not and we've decided not to pay our politicians a lot over here and guess what you still need to be really competent and you need to work really

long hours so you know how are you going to get compensated for that and it's these weird grifty back room ways that like because obviously competent people are going to seek out compensation uh for their we're GNA give you some uh material non-public information and that's you know worth its weit and old literally yeah yeah yeah I mean Pelosi's been crushing the uh he's been crushing the returns Paul Paul Pelosi let's call it all right fellas good one see you next week later guys bye guys