Welcome to the Banana Zone: advice from investor Zeneca

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show where we handle crypto like your best wingman handles introductions at of bar I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by zenica who has been here before he has ridden the banana Zone he's been in Cycles he's gone all the way up and he's gone down and we are going to learn from him today we're going to dive into the mistake he's made what he's done right what's allowed him to be so successful in the past and really give you guys an opportunity to learn from a multi-million dollar investor who has been here before we're going to talk about we're in the banana

Zone what does that mean how not to [ __ ] it up and make sure you guys stick around to the end to hear Zena's picks for this week what he is eyeing what he's watching before we jump in we just need to take a minute to hear from our sponsors who make this show possible whether you're bullish or bearish on micro strategy t- Rex ETFs are your gateway to Dynamic Marketplace get exclusive access to leverage exposures with the first two times short or two times long ETFs designed specifically for micro strategy stock position yourself with Precision with T-Rex you gain access to powerful tools for sophisticated [Music] investors meet uphold a trading platform

that's changing the way you think about money imagine this earning up to 4.9% apy on your US dollar no catches no lockup periods and no fees and yes it's FDIC insured up to $2.5 million they offer access to over 300 digital assets which you can trade store and exchange with confidence knowing uphold operates with a 100% reserve and a transparent model create your account fund it with a few Taps and you're ready to show click the link in the description and join uphold today Zen what's going on my man welcome back to the show good to be back I mean

the bull market is here like uh in the last week bitcoin's up 20K or something it's feels good it feels electric it's an exciting time it's like the no sleep time of the cycle where it's just you just wake up in the middle of the night check your phone and then you're awake for three hours it's it's it's fun times ahead I I love I love that you you're such a a poker player slashonline dgen when you say things like wake up in the middle of the night and stay up for three hours or just don't go to sleep like I I'm a big fan of sleep I'm a big Advocate I think you know sleep and mental health and all that is super important but like there are certain moments in life where you can go with lessly for a little while and this feels like one of those moments

let's go let's go I love it okay first question maybe the easiest uh are we in the banana Zone I think so yeah I mean it's hard not to hard not to agree with that you know we had the Trump Victory we had not just Trump winning but like a ton of crypto positive senators and just like government officials now getting into Power um it just seems like so many catalysts are in place so many dominoes have fallen um you know we've smashed past previous alltime highs the M2 money supply is looking good it's just like interest rates are coming down it's just everything is Ling up so it's very difficult to imagine it not just being

up only for a while obviously there's you know there's always a 5 10% chance of the Black Swan event we crash everyone gets it wrong um you know I was on here a few months ago saying you know maybe 20 25% chance which if Trump didn't win we probably wouldn't have be in a much worse position now but he did and you know it's to me it's like Risk on season all right awesome give us uh before we jump into um what you've done well and what you have bucked up or not done so well in the past uh give us a um can you just give us like a history lesson on how many cycles you been through and like what is your portfolio looked like through those Cycles this is my third cycle uh so I first bought significantly in 2017 uh I put in maybe somewhere in the

around realm around 10,000 I bought you know eth when it was I think $140 to begin with and then I was buying all the way up to about $1,000 I bought random altcoins back then uh I remember Ripple I bought and then it ran to like $3 and I thought I was a genius uh I round Tri most of it I think the peak my portfolio was worth about 100 150 maybe 200k back then uh and I probably took you know 30 50k of profits out of that and the rest I just held and then went all the way down and almost all of it went to zero fortunately I held some eth which I don't know I had like 10 or 15 eth which uh went down to being worth not much in the you know the next bare Market but then 2020 2021 rolled around and all of

a sudden started becoming worth something again um and so that 21 cycle is probably was the big cycle for me I had that E I deposited some more Fiat bought more eth mostly and turned that into um you know flipping and trading nfts and and mem coins back then and that went all the way up to like on paper my there was a few days where my my paper net worth portfolio is worth like 20 25 million but it was like very very brief for a few days but there were like weeks where it was worth probably around that 10ish million Mark um and I I took some profits out but I would say I round tripped 80% of that uh 70 80% which you know you learn a lot from that obviously it was incredible cycle I am

very fortunate and grateful it worked out really well could have been better but could have been much much worse and the last couple years has been um you know planting seeds doing some Investments deciding where I want to allocate the rest of my funds um building advising doing a bunch of other random things and now now we're getting into I mean we kicked off the next Bull Run again we'll see how high things can go from here but um I don't know I have my goals and and we'll we'll see if we can hit them I'm no longer trying to like 100x everything and and even 20x everything I'll be happy with like you know a 3X from here I love the uh I I actually really respect people who are happy with a 3X from here and I know everybody listening

is like 3x like come on man that's so lame that's not what I'm looking for but like let's be real go ahead you could jump in you got a thought yeah no no I just want to add an aster where like I'm still looking for like certain tokens to do a 10x 20x 50x potentially even 100x I'm talking about my overall portfolio so like I might only have 10% of my portfolio in mem coins and so maybe I get some the do 100x but that's only a 10x overall and maybe a lose some money elsewhere and also the other ASX is I'm in a very different position to other people last cycle when I had much less Capital relatively I would not have been content with 3x I saw the opportunities available and I was like I want to get you know 10x 20x 100x because it is

possible if you really buckle down and work hard I think and I you know I had the ability to take higher risks I didn't have the responsibilities and stuff like that so I think it just depends on who you are and where you are in your life and in your portfolio and having clear goals is the most important part because some people want a THX some people are content with a 5x or 2x okay let's talk about uh what did you [ __ ] up in the last banana Zone not the last cycle let's focus on the last um last time we were here for roughly four years ago not exactly but last time we were in this banana Zone what mistakes did you make that you think somebody can learn from and not make the same

mistakes this time around I think two of the biggest ones I always keep coming back to is one is um the obvious one that most people make and that is like you just drink the Kool-Aid too much you get too caught up in the Euphoria you think a new paradigm a new World Order is sett settling in it's just up only forever or even if it does drop it's going to go up so much more first then it'll drop down to a place higher than we are now uh and and just thinking like you know all right nfts are going to change the world the technology is so good I still believe all of this it is but it doesn't mean that the speculative tokens that we were buying and selling and trading back then were necessarily going to go up and then the second mistake I made which is very

much a corollary to that um is uh the idea that I felt Diversified when I really wasn't and in that I mean like I was like well all right even if my uh art blocks nfts go down I at least have B Apes at least I have a punk at least I have these other nfts right even if you know most the nfts go down at least I have some of these mem coins at least I have some e at least I have and the reality is that everything in crypto is correlated you know people talk about diversifica diversification in crypto it's kind of a myth you can diversify into like rwa and dpin and eth and Sol and Bitcoin and mean coins and it's all correlated to bitcoin heavily and so when a bare

Market comes in when Bitcoin goes down 60% everything else is going to go down way more and so that idea of feeling like I was Diversified when I really wasn't is uh it it definitely hurt me a lot and so I'm just learning from those two and trying to uh be more Mindful and like even in the the crazy Mania phases try and calm myself take some deep breaths um it's almost like the reverse is an issue now where you have that PTSD where it's like all right I shouldn't just sell for like a 20% profit now it's like learning to let things ride a little bit more and obviously timing the top is the most difficult thing possible so just trying to thread that needle when it comes to diversification how do you think how are

you managing managing that yeah so I've um for the last 12 to 18 months I've just had this running theme in my mind of over diversification being super bad and so I'm constantly trying to aggressively col my portfolio and get it into the fewest number of tokens possible uh it it at the same time I'm battling with this desire to be in the trenches and to try and hit a few hundred x's and to try and ride some mean coins Higher and Higher and so it's constantly like all right things get out of control and then all right every few days or every week week and a half sit down and just sell a whole bunch of stuff and like put it into the more higher conviction stuff um as well as ensuring I take some profits

and put it into like Soul or eth or Bitcoin or stables and just put that in a wallet that's not being touched those are those are the big things I recognize that it's super easy to just get swept up in the Mania and buy some random coins because your group chat's aing into something your friends are talking about something your favorite Twitter influenc etc etc there's so many and there's good narratives and you can make good money but I think just being we of it getting out of hand really really quickly and being like Oh I got a great portfolio I have 50 tokens and you know they're all doing well right now and even if 20% of them go to zero I'm still doing well that's that's a trap yeah what do you think is the ideal for uh and I know this ranges for

everybody but how many tokens do you think is a good portfolio I think uh five to 10 is is a good number and it's really tough like even when I call find myself with like 20 and that's like aggressively cutting a lot of stuff I still have 20 and maybe 20 is okay for someone who fulltime in crypto managing the portfolio on The Daily keeping an eye on everything and and being very aggressive about it but I would say even for myself and certainly for almost everyone 10 is enough five is probably enough like the problem with less than five if you're trying to play outside of the majors is that you can have a lot of conviction on something and get it wrong

you can have a lot of conviction on something and the market just doesn't move on it so I think you do want to find a few different tokens that you have a lot of conviction on and and allocate into those but the more you get like if you think about it this way if if you rank every token you have in level of conviction like you will be able to decide and might do I like this token More Than This token or this token More Than This token and then you get to a point where you have a list of 30 40 50 tokens or 20 and you're like well why am I holding the bottom 50% of this if I have less conviction of these than these and there is some equilibrium Tipping Point where you realize okay I want to have enough to be a bit Diversified but

I don't want to go way down the the risk scale there so what if you want to buy a new token then do you hold yourself to a rule of selling out of a certain token it it varies um not necessarily but usually what I'll do is I'm I'm in a bull market things move so rapidly and so quickly so I'm I think we're in the the season of like eight first think later and that basically means having a bit of money aside uh to to buy into things and then spend you know the two hours after that or the day or the couple days doing more research and deciding all right how much conviction do I actually have in this thing I had some amount of conviction to buy it in the first place it was whether it was a

gut feeling whether it was you know you like the the the thesis the team the ticker the meme the whatever it is you're actually buying the the blockchain but then evaluated against the rest of your portfolio and be like all right I like it but do I like it more than this or more than this and having that ability to ape first and then evaluate I think is something that you kind of have to do in Bull markets it matters much less in a bare Market in a bare Market you can take up a week to decide all right is this a token I want long term or not very unlikely it's going to 10x in in a few days in a bull market you you sleep on something and you wake up and it's 10x or 2X or up 50% so it's just it it it pays to trust your

gut and move quickly but I think it also pays to be aggressively re-evaluating your conviction levels how do you know uh one thing that is very difficult to know is when you've missed the pump on on something especially in the bear or sorry in the bull because things are moving so fast you know Pepe is up 100% I think in the last like two days or something like that right and it's like like how do you know because that's that's always the hard thing is you look at it and you're like okay um have I missed it is it is it too late or this is just the beginning it's impossible it's just so impossible like the the reality is that you're going to miss basically everything um like you can

apply metric by like comparing it to similar tokens and like I'll use peanut as an example the mean coin peanut it went from like nothing to you know sitting at around 4 million for a little bit and now it's at like 1.5 billion so that's like you know a 400x s 1.7 billion now okay 4 500x in I saw it at 4 million by the way I didn't buy it then um 4 500x in two weeks which is nuts and this is only bull market things I bought it at I think like 30 40 million and I sold you know I bought it with like size I bought a lot of it I sold most of it by within that like 100 to 150 million range that's a great X multiple um I don't think it can run up much more and you know it dropped down it Consolidated

and then binance lists it out of nowhere and it runs up to 400 million at that point I'm like this is kind of crazy do do we consider shorting it do we I don't feel like buying now it's gone up so much next day later that day actually it's up to like a billion and you got to think all right surely it's close to the top all right maybe it runs up maybe does get 50% year maybe 2x but like the other better opportunities and it just keeps going up and so you can apply logic you can apply reason you can compare it to other tokens you can compare it to well you know goat took so long to go up and you know uh you know with you can just make all the same similar comparisons but in a bull market sometimes things just get bad it crazy

and you just have to take things on a leap of faith you make educated guesses and most importantly accept that you're going to get things wrong and you're going to miss most things yeah it's uh it's crazy look peanuts up uh 1,00% 10x 11 11x in the past seven days yeah and it had previously gone up like a thou like 100 before that or something before that yeah yeah the chart is mindboggling yeah is is it too late to buy a peut now I don't know I mean I'm not buying now I think it's it's I mean it's possible you know you could be the next doorage you can go to 50 billion bull mcoin supercycle bull markets get

absolutely crazy um however even in Bull markets there's usually pullbacks and it's gone so parabolic so quickly you know but I would have said the same thing at a billion or 800 million and it's you know gone up so so it's just like if you feel a real strong desire to buy in and you you really have a lot of conviction in the best thing to do when it's run up this much is buy a small amount now so you have a bit of exposure and leave a lot of dry powder to to buy it if it drops because then you you capture some of the upside and if it just runs keeps running then okay you miss out in some games if you just topl L at everything but more often than not it will drop and

like even successful non- mcoins have 60 70% Corrections mcoins often have those Corrections all the time um I'd be shocked if peanut doesn't go back to like a billion even which is like a you know 50 plus% drop from here but who knows again who knows we're in this new par like it really is yeah this I just caught myself saying the word new paradigm that's like that's bull market Mania uh Euphoria cycle but like this the thing we're in that cycle we know it's all going to go to zero or like mean coins are going to go to zero or close to zero we know that everything's going to crash at some point but you have to like suspend belief for a certain period of time to capitalize on the gains like with with nfts everyone

in like June 2021 said this is insane crazy it's all crash if you just ducked out then you would have missed out on most of the gains so you have to like mid you have to like not mid curve it as much as possible yeah what about what about over trading I mean if you're listening to this show you're probably you're sitting there you know maybe you maybe you don't own peanut maybe you never even heard of peanut which is a meme coin uh and you're like [ __ ] now you're like oh I got go look up peanut and all you do during bull market every day is every influencer every newsletter podcast is throwing another token at you you bring up coin market cap or coin gecko whatever you use and everything is up and this one's you've never heard of

it it's up 100% how how do you manage overtrading it's so difficult I honestly think this is probably the most prevalent uh leak or mistake that Traders make in in markets in general and especially in crypto and I very much include myself this is probably my biggest mistake in leak because I am you know full-time in this space I'm in Discord groups I'm in telegrams I'm on Twitter all the time I see a 100 tickers a day that I genuinely think that's a good one it's going to run and you know what probably a lot of them are good buys and will run but the more you buy the less uh attention you can spend on each of them and again it's like you just have to balance the

conviction level you have in every new token versus the existing tokens in other ones I mean there's no easy solution to this other than just keep hammering it into your head that like don't overtrade realize it's a mistake learn to sit on your hands um to me the best way to to combat this is journaling like keep a trading journal a regular journal online writed with pen and paper at the end of each day or a few times throughout the day or every second just regularly go in and like write your thoughts on all right you bought some tokens how did it go you saw a token and you didn't buy it how did it go and everyone thinks ah I don't need to write it I'll just you know I'm living this I'll remember it and just like I'll pay a bit of attention and I'll learn you

you forget that [ __ ] really quickly by writing it down and especially by going back and rereading it you will sign significantly improve your ability to sit on your hands to keep the conviction you have in the right things to not fomo um it's it's the single biggest best piece of alpha I can give anyone um and it's not just me like you listen to any top Trader out there they all say keep a journal keep a journal like just just do it trust me I want to know if you guys listening in do you guys keep a journal let us know in the uh in the show notes I'm honestly curious how many people keep a journal I feel like it's one of those it's like keeping a journal in life everybody knows it's good for you to write in a

journal but nobody does it Nobody Does it so the difference here though I will say is that in life it's your mental health that improves and that's such a you know it's great in crypto it's your financial situation you can make money by and everyone loves the incentive structures of making money it's like you know mental health is one of those things that it's the most important thing but it's so nefar So like um not nefarious It's So like um just like abstract and you know people like ah yeah I know I should do that it's like eating well and exercising and all that kind of stuff but keeping a journal will you'll be shocked at how quickly the results are that you just start to feel better make better decisions make better

trades it like within days it'll it'll just you you'll just be amazed okay let's go to your picks of the week uh what do you what do you looking at what tokens do you like right now yeah so the token I like the most is Doge but not the main Doge so like everyone will have seen that Donald Trump announced the department of government Efficiency do G as this new government thing headed up by Elon and vivec in America to help make the government more efficient obviously there's a mean coin around that it's been around for a few weeks since before the election when it was first announced but since the election it has only sort of really taken off um I think it's around like 400 million market cap right

now part of my thesis these days is just go in size and the things I have the most conviction in this is the new thing I have the most conviction in so I've been selling off other positions I've been buying I bought it I think 70 million first I bought at 150 million I bought at 200 I bought at 300 I'm just continuing to buy I'll buy dips I think that if this cycle continues the way it is continuing uh looking like it's going to continue and we get the mecoin Mania I think it's one of the the just it's going to get so much attention that it'll probably pop off so that's probably my biggest pick of the moment and then I have like some smaller market cap stuff as well um that I can talk about but that's that's a big one give

give us one one of your smaller market cap ones okay so this is um much higher risk one it is the ticker is Ross RS and it's for Ross ulri the the silk guy who Trump has uh basically said in his campaign I will free him from jail cuz people the crypto space is pretty divided about whether he should be locked up or not and how the whole case was handled um and it's I think it's like seven or nine million market cap right now it's one of those ones which I could see it really exploding and like the community will really rally behind it because it's a cool cause and idea um obviously it depends on Trump actually falling through with his word um it's one of

those longer term ones where it's like attention could fade and then it's not until January when he gets into to office that things or it could be months after that when it actually happens and so it is riskier but it is one of the ones that I'm um I I hold a bunch of I bought it at first to like three or four million then it dropped down to like under one million it kind of looked dead and now it's back up again it's one of those ones that will EV flow high risk um but I'm keeping it close eye on I think it's a cool narrative ba basically it's a bet on Ross getting released from prison if he gets released in this bull run then pretty good chance that token is going to pretty good the thing with mean coins is though it's it's not just

the that is a massive event but it's about the community forming around it and rallying behind the idea of him and what it stands for and getting more people excited by that because like we saw there were a bunch of meme coins like Trump and [ __ ] leading into the election and they all just tanked after Trump got elected and so I would be basically selling if and when Ross does get pardoned and then look to Reby again if if it the community stays strong around that but it's like it's this such a nebulous thing that's what I meant to say before instead an nefarious a nebulous thing um with mean coins but I think it's it's a strong narrative that

will Garner attention and and attention is the the the fuel for mean coins amazing okay Zen thanks so much for joining us again today everybody listening in let us know in the comments do you keep a journal and are you in either Ross or Doge the other Doge what do you call other do d d perod o period g g that's what people say d. do g. um Department of government Department Doge there's Doge go I don't know it's I mean a lot of exchanges that are that are listing it have had to come up with creative ways of listing it because they can't just put Doge in because it would just confuse the hell out of people so that's one issue um on the on the journal thing I just wanted to mention

um I started my own trading journal a few days ago in telegram so I've made it public so people can see it's not one where I show all ticket I just share like you know my wins and losses in mental health battles throughout the day so maybe we can post a link to that um below something people can check it out yeah yeah yeah definitely I we'll post that link in the show notes and you guys can uh can see how zenica does his trading journal it's an incredible way for people to learn from one of the best well we'll see how how good I am at the end of the cycle but um you're always so modest I knew you wouldn't like me oh man awesome thanks so much for listening in everybody have a wicked awesome day as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and

make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free five minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day