Unichain’s Launch, Election Season’s Influence on Crypto, and Unveiling Satoshi’s Identity | Roundup

Transcript

so I don't necessarily see this as they just moved to the end and they're going to have the base level security be based around uni chain it's still going to be an optimism you know L2 it's still going to be based on ethereum but it moves them out of that that messy middle section and they just will be able to recruit more value not only you know in this example but I think also we now have another use for uni tokens themselves and you know governance is great um I think everybody's always been asking for you know what's value acral going to look like you know this is one way that they're going to be able to you know have value for the uni token without having to turn on that fee switch hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Supra the vertically

integrated L1 for super daps uh they have a very cool new product coming out called Supra container so head over to supra.com that's s.com containers so if you're building on an L1 and it feels a little bit crowded or the complexity of L2 and l3s are getting you down just head over to Supra they'll get you sorted thank me later all right everyone this is a message from my dgen listeners out there if you are getting scalped paying expensive fees to per Dees I highly recommend that you check out index co-op's new leverage Suite now whenever it comes to leverage do your own research this is not Financial advice don't bet more than you can lose all that good stuff but if you are going to lever up you might as well not pay an arm and a leg for it you can get leverage on BTC and eath with built-in

liquidation Perfection uh now available on Base main net and arbitrum so click the link in the bottom of the show notes and head over and check them out today and you'll hear more from them later in the pr program all right everyone welcome back to another episode of bell curve before we jump in quick disclaimer the views expressed by my co-host today are their personal views and they do not represent the views of any organization with which the co-hosts are associated with uh nothing in the episode is construed or relied upon as Financial technical tax legal or other advice you know the deal now let's jump into the episode all right everyone welcome back to another episode of B this is live uh from permission list you got Michael's

one and two here and nobody else and nobody else in the flesh unfortunately Vance is uh down for the count with illness um so hopefully he'll be back next week we'll pour one out for him and uh also whoever lose this this uh Kane and David fight later tonight yeah where what do you think I uh I'm gon to back my boy David here I know I know he's the underdog but you know he's Scrappy you know he's young he's fit you know he's been training I'm G to back my boy here I was leaving the conference yesterday at like 5 or whenever and I walk out and Kane is in walking in because he had some thing that he was going to go do where he's still wearing his shirt and his training his shorts and his training shirt and he has his trainer with him

and he's just like in the zone I respect your call I respect your David call but it's going to be tough I know he's got the height in the reach and everything you know I actually was on a a panel this morning with David and uh Kane and we were talking was like how are you two even talking right now I would just be in my own head about this game day uh panel is is pretty absurd that's uh good for them for we should have thought about it before but I also before we get started we're obviously recording this from permission list I I got to give a shout out to Espresso here uh I'm wearing some some car heart espresso uh every year we get like one person who Nails the swag the most uh bitwise got on the last one they had

some Prov ones and yeah this year it's definitely espresso so working man's crypto working man's crypto yeah just got on my shift in the coal mine and walked right into permissionless you know how it is yeah yeah you know how it is you know how it is uh but they actually they have some very good swag in general they had a ethereum United uh jerseys at ECC this year shout out espresso great team all right so and just in case it's not clear I can be bribed with swag so so easily brib with swag SW yes that's SW it's like really low barrier to getting a mention on this show all right so big story of today I'm reading from my phone here a little bit but we got the launch of uni chain and um this was a big announcement it's been

long rumored shout out Dan elitzer for correctly predicting this a couple of years ago I'll just teed up with a couple of details then want to get your your take Michael um so contrary to what I think a lot of people expected this is not actually an app specific chain it is a general purpose uh L2 and the idea is probably it's going to be purpose built and kind of like a def5 focused L2 but it's a general purpose L2 in general so they're they partnered up with flash bots on this um and there's a new rollup boost product that flash Bots rolled out in tandem with this and it allows them to build very fast blocks essentially 250 millisecond uh flash blocks where you get uh you you're building this with

a te and um users uh get those sorts of guarantees um additionally there's uh there's something pretty cool the way that it actually works is you're you're getting a pre-confirmation and then similar to salana Reds uh basically you're sending all of these things to tees it gets assembled into a big block similarly to how it works in salana and then there's something called the uvn uh Unis swap validator Network where people can opt in um and actually validate those larger blocks and there are fees that gets streamed to the people that opt into doing that I think it's mostly going to be the foundation and some like the team that starts off with doing it but then it's eventually going to be permissionless so yeah and just a couple additional points there's uh the amount of State weight that you have as a validator will be determined how much

revenue you would get and based off of the economic security that you're providing that's how much you'll be able to get as a validator and the other element too and I I think this maybe wasn't as clear in the white paper but it's something that um Hayden and Dan confirmed today is that the way that the blocks will be built is provably fair yeah and so there won't really even be an opportunity just given the 20 250 millisecond block times in general but also the fact that everything is built provably fair or in a provably fair way uh there won't really be any Mev capabilities uh which which I think is a unique element I do as well it's super cool it's a departure from the philosophy of just max extraction and then return to users to just kind of prevent it from being the case so it's not the type of thing

where a builder you know assembles a bunch of transactions and then orders them in uh like priority fees it's just basically all done with the te so it's very cool I don't actually have the details of that yet uh hosu is coming on the podcast next week and we're going to get into the me and the rollup Builder aspect of this yeah so and I think what they announced is that the test net is live or or maybe soon to be live and that main net will be sometime by the end of this year I think one of the other features that they've been promoting with this uh Concept in general is that it is generalized L2 but it's also specifically built for cross chain liquidity yes and I think you know being able to get around the bridge or get around any sort of bridging when

you're looking for liquidity and swaps is fundamental and it'll be really interesting to see you know where does liquidity acre how do how does liquidity actually work when you're Trad from L2 to L2 or network to network or L1 to L2 whatever it may be um but I I'm curious to see the the the implementation details on that because that'll be that'll be really interesting as it uh applies to cross chain capabilities yeah me as well and shout out to a friend of the Pod Hart lamber uh of across who's been developing that standard with Unis swap so very interested to see how that works in general what do you think about this whole move from the Unis swap perspective there's there's the Unis swap perspective and how like WEA whether or not this makes sense for UNIS swap as a protocol um and then there's

you know people love to FUD eth these days and they're like oh this is bearish eth like that sort of thing because of fees why don't we actually start with that angle and like what do you what do you think about that well we're on bell curve pod so let's apply yeah I mean look the bearish eth perspective I think is firmly in the middle um and with the caveat of short-term versus long-term yes there's potentially I mean what they have promoted is that the fee uh cost cost to use uni chain will be 20x cheaper than than using sort of the existing Unis swap product obviously that directly applies to what you're going to be spending in terms of the amount of eth burn that the Unis swap protocol is burning but I think that that's actually just the short-term perspective and

probably not um not something that persists longer duration and you know probably going to front run a lot of the Empire pod which we recorded on CH on on stage uh earlier today with uh a vshell from electric but um basically the way that we think about this is there's a there's an economic factor and I can't remember the name of it um where loss that's another one but if you lower the price of something the volume actually increases yeah um and it happens in electricity it happens in oil it's like if you lower the cost of gas it turns out people actually travel further they use more gas and that indu demand some I think it's something like that we quick

go for a Google but um but the same effect will apply here where if you reduce the cost you expect over time the amount of trading volume will actually far further increase than the amount of decreased cost just because there's more there's more functionality there's more capabilities with what you're actually transacting and so I would expect that that actually is the exact same effect that takes over here Revenue will probably ultimately increase as opposed to decrease based off a reduction and cost especially if you apply things like the fact that you're going to be able to have cross chain built in you're going to be able to have liquidity that's going to be just easily accessible in a 250 millisecond basis I me that's just not something that exists on chain on ethereum right now um and so I I think

it's fundamentally bullish eth it may be short-term bearish in terms of the amount of eth that is being burned but what that implies also is that you're valuing eth on a short-term basis based off of a discounted cash flow which is that is just the epitome of mid curve uh from my from my perspective and so I think there is an ele of okay we want to see how much eth is being burned ultimately that's a revenue basis for the token but I think you also want to look at it from a monetary standard and you want to look at it from a tech platform uh perspective as well and and the competition that you now enable with a 250 millisecond transaction time for something as fundamental as Unis Swap and swapping puts it on par with things that are happening on Salon puts it on

par with things that are happening in a centralized change like there are Now functionality There Is Now functionality or there will be when this launches for being on par with coinbase and and that's just something that Unis swap hasn't had before even though it's been competing you know at least in in certain points in time in terms of volume so I think it's fundamentally bullish eth long term uh for for a multitude of reasons I'm 100% in that camp because I even if you we we did a whole uh bell curve season with Dan Robinson where he if you go back and listen to that he very clearly spelled out what uh you know from the Unis swap perspective and just deck design in general they were really uh concerned with mitigating this dead weight loss factor which is there's some sort of you know utility curve here or efficiency

curve where you know you're trying to charge as much fees as you can you're trying to Maxim you're trying to maximize the net amount of fees that you get right and if you charge you know you could imagine on one end of the curve if you're charging $1,000 per transaction you're going to get no transactions and if you're charging zero you're going to get a ton but you're going to make no money somewhere along that curve is where you want to be um where you're maximizing the the total amount of uh fees that you generate and so you know the whole fee debate is this Unis swap uni chain is exactly what the plan was right like what we didn't want to do the the huge fees that eth generated back in 2021 that was great it wasn't sustainable because the cost you know the fees per transaction was extremely

high this is just making the fee per transaction much lower but it should stimulate much more Demand right the other thing that I think this is I mean this is again just the plan right like the plan was to move a lot of these transactions up to l2s there's a blob market for for that this is probably going to saturate The Blob market so it might make uh transactions a little bit more expensive on L2 but again to a pretty reasonable level and you're moving these crazy you know price gouging fees off the L1 up to l2s where it's just much more reasonable I just I think people are mid curving it too yeah what I would expect is you'll probably see a decrease in in Unis swap fee burn you know on whatever you choose to look at maybe ultrasound. money but you'd have an A A commensurate increase in

Blob fee Burn yeah uh and so I totally agree with that you know we were talking about this a little bit ago but 4844 launched in I think March of this year we've been in the middle of that J curve where you expect kind of like okay things change you know prices decrease so therefore it's going to take a little while before blobs can start hitting that Max threshold and that's where you're going to start to see eth become deflationary again frankly something like this is probably the best opportunity that we have at least in the short term to have that blob Market max out again and I wouldn't be surprised if we actually pass through the J curve on the way back once this launches so I I I could see this being fundamentally bullish on the short term as well you know assuming that we get the requisite

amount of volume that we I expect we will so all right that that's the sort of eth perspective let's talk about this from the perspective of uni like uni chain in general it's really cool I mean I think one of the you know just looking at it and having thought about it for a little bit it's only been live for like a day or something like that but you know Unis swap has attacked all layers of the stack of decks they've got the wallet layer in the front end so they've got the order flow sort of origination they've got the liquidity layer of like V3 and soon to be V4 uh and now like the last thing to do kind of was their their settlement layer I mean it looks like they're kind of vertically integrating a little bit here and controlling the entire user experience which like

they've got the brand and the distribution to do that it's probably going to lead to huge ux improvements like I think it's pretty I think it's a good move you know yeah it's it's obviously a good move I I think one of the concepts that we talked about on stage and sorry for front running again um but you'll hear this twice if you listen to both pods uh there's this concept called The Smiling curve yes and this is basically uh you know on the x-axis it's basically you know the value creation the value chain uh at each different phase and you've got basically you know everything down to the hard technology the the infrastructure all the way to the user experience and that uh represents a smile because the value ACR at the ends of the spectrum are high whereas if you get stuck in the middle

you get squeezed and therefore it's low and so that's why it's called The Smiling turve that's what it visually looks like and what I what I see going on with Unis Swap and you know remember Unis swap Labs has built Unis swap the application that is moving further out on the owning the end user experience perspective they're going to start competing with Robin Hood with coinbase with kind of everyone who owns the user experience and that's obviously highly valuable but I see this is you know they're not going to be moving as far to the end of the spectrum as they possibly can you know that base level will still be ethereum and this is kind of the pro eth perspective but it moves them further down the stack to where they're going to own more of the user experience own own more of the protocol to be able

to affect the user experience they're going to be able to write their ticket a lot more than they would have if they were stuck in the middle and so I don't necessarily see this as they just moved to the end and they're going to have the base level security be based around uni chain it's still going to be an optimism you know L2 it's still going to be based on ethereum but it moves them out of that that messy middle section and they just will be able to recruit more value not only you know in this example but I think also we now have another use for uni tokens themselves we do and you know governance is great um I think everybody's always been asking for you know what's value ACR going to look like you know this is one way that they're going to be able to you know have value

ACR for the uni token without having to turn on that fee switch yes 100% um and I love the The Smiling curve think that was originally used to describe the Computing industry back in the 90s but it's been you know pretty it works across a whole bunch of different types of Industries um and yeah I think it's was it surprising to you that they decided to go instead of an app chain for a more general purpose chain and I know there's this kind of cycle here I think John Charo likes to talk about you start off as an app and then you want to launch as a general purpose uh so that you can get more value capture and you can have other apps build but then all of those apps want actually more sovereignty and customizability so then they you know it's the Vicious Cycle it is

yeah it's like uh you know every every really good product ultimately wants to become a platform and then all the products that are built on top of it also want to become the platform and so you just get stuck in the xkcd you know 15th framework uh what whatever that example is it's it's funny uh yeah I mean I think you want to promote the fact that you could be a general purpose L2 because you know maybe there's going to be people that want to build on top and it this this is where I think it'll be interesting to see the devil in the details once they launch where if you have access to different cross-chain layers of liquidity that's going to be fundamentally valuable for for maybe user experiences or app chain apps that want to build and not necessarily build with the liquidity but just want to

build on top of that it it kind of remains to be seen and and you know maybe this is you know them promoting the fact that they want to have that and it's aspirational and we'll see how it works eventually but you know I could see a path where where other apps are built on top of uni chain too you know what it reminds me of a little bit um we had Eugene from Ellipsis on the podcast talking about Atlas it reminds me of that a little bit where you know it's a purpose-built defi L2 and you know they're an SPM L2 and they have these pretty cool um specs like you know uh prioritizing Oracle updates and things like that so you know there's a little bit of a a tension in between something that's permissionless and also an app specific platform right because

anyone can build anything you can but if you make it purpose built the idea is that def specific applications will want to build here versus somewhere else and it seems like similar idea with now uni chain yeah hyper liquid is another example you know where eventually they're going to have their own chain it's going to be general purpose people can build on top of it I mean this this example has existed in many different Industries I mean even even thinking back to like Amazon they had Amazon the application built on top of AWS the technology and then eventually they're like wait a second we can just sell this AWS product and make way more money doing that it's like okay that's pretty neat um I think that that model works it's harder to pull off than just having the own your own application uh I I you

know my personal experience working in a Dropbox is we tried to build a platform didn't work yeah and ultimately went back to just being an application and that's that's pretty much okay um but yeah sometimes it works sometimes doesn't um and so I think you know you kind of have to pick and choose your levels of competition and where you want to compete um because if you if you don't choose where you're going to compete then you're going to compete everywhere and that is ultimately a failure State here's uh another interesting comparison as well between um Atlas and uni chain is that now you're getting infrastructure that's getting built out by apbs first right cuz um Atlas you know the the te Ellipsis built um Phoenix the decks on

salana and they kind of took those Lessons Learned and those competencies to actually build you know purpose built infrastructure and it's just interesting to see because there's there's always been this Chicken and the Egg problem in crypto and other Industries with apps and infrastructure and the infra is supposed to support the apps you need the infra before you can get the app so you know how do you know and now it seems like there's this new gen generation of app Builders who are like all right I've built an application I don't have the info that I want yet so I'm just going to build it myself I mean one of the questions I asked is uh what if instead of having Unis swap you know V1 V2 V3 and they just went out with uni chain as the first product and you know it's not really it wasn't feasible for

them to do that back then and so they had to you know take the path that they did but what if they buil un need chain first and would you consider that to be an application or would that be infrastructure I I think that there's an element here where we're going to start to see sort of the the blending of that definition a little bit where applications who you know there there's like this famous uh I think it was Arthur C Clark that said this it's like people who are really serious about software build their own hardware and I I think that we're going to start to see some of that where you don't want to have to rely on somebody else to control everything on the back end if you want to build the best experience which ultimately you want to do as a product

Builder you have to own the full stack or or more of the stack than you have been historically that's a really good point and Amazon's probably a really good example of that like is Amazon an application or are they infrastructure it's like kind of both right like they started with the application and they built their own infrastructure now they make more profit at least from AWS than you know the original exactly sort of sales business so hey this episode is brought to you by Supra the new blazing fast vertically integrated L1 which helps you scale your D if you are a builder you're probably dealing with some combination of cost complexity and fragmentation of existing Solutions so you're building over an eel to land everything's feeling a little bit fragmented at the moment if you're

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that you check out click the link in the bottom of the show notes now disclaimer whenever it comes to leverage do your own research this is not Financial advice all that good stuff don't bet more than you can lose but if you are going to lever up you might as well not pay an arm and a leg and save a ton of money and use index cops leverage site so the way that they actually achieve these savings is pretty cool they Leverage The Power of money Legos defi uh in this case Unis Swap and a so the cost of carry for this trade is actually based on the funding rate of a as opposed to per Dees which tend to be much more variable and higher overall additionally per Dees will also charge you usually based on the entire uh open interest so the leverage exposure that

you have as opposed to just the amount of money that you put in which is what index Co-op is doing here and the result of what you get is just an erc20 which gives you something like 2x e so you want to lever up and you want to save money doing it I highly recommend that you go check out the index Co-op leverage Suite very very cool thank you very much index Co-op for making this episode possible okay one other take uh before we move on here or observation I want to get your take on is that yeah this was all kind of announced and this was done spearheaded through the labs entity and you know there I saw a couple takes on Twitter like hey was the DOW consulted about this you know did did they even know that this was happening and uh you know it's kind of I I

understand that there are there are line and Unis swap has a little bit of a unique uh structure um but it does kind of feel like well this is a huge change to Unis swap the the protocol here and at the very least like why do we really have governance here if the labs enity can just do this so what do you think about that uh I mean that I I didn't even think about that or or it didn't click when I read it um uh unfortunately I think that this is just the state of the regulatory environment that we're in yeah and I think it would be great if we could have all of like clear clear paths and clear you know separation of concern in terms of a to do what how we both entities but just in the same example of

The Smiling curve and having them move to both ends that's like Equity company on the one end and token protocol on the other end and so I think Unis swap is probably the one so far that I've seen who's been able to hopefully successfully do both yeah typically you need to have your choice of okay we're an equity company or oh okay we're going to be decentralized protocol very few examples exist if any other than Unis swap where you've done both uh and I I think this is probably just their they have you know hands tied behind their backs where they can't necessarily you know effectuate certain decisions or the foundation has been hamstrung based off of you know closed door conversations or agreements whatever and I don't know anything this is not speculation it just

feels like it I I know that they've been through the ringer in terms of regulations and and so I would imagine that that plays aart right well I and there's always a discussion around the fee switch and there have been a couple proposals which looked like they actually have some some weight behind them and then they end up not passing at the last minute and I have to imagine it's the regulatory stuff so speaking of that I the the oddone poly Market have shifted quite a bit the last week y uh I think they're basically neck and neck with Kamala leading I think a little bit and now Trump is in the lead by you know at one point yesterday I was checking 5643 5643 yeah 13 percentage points I mean that's pretty crazy do you know what's driving that I haven't I I think

what has happened it's interesting like as someone who uh has moonlighted as a as a uh data analyst for this election cycle you're actually pretty in the weeds you advance know your stuff yeah well we we've just followed a lot of the pollsters and you know um I don't know it's nice to have something that's like not directly crypto where you can like plug in some brain cycles and like it relates but it's not exactly and it's just like interesting um it only happens every four years so it's like might as well spend the time about it um but what we have seen at least is a series of polls especially in the SW states that have just not been favorable for her um and it looks like she's losing ground

there's been rumors that have been verified by places like Politico that you know they're in in internally they're nervous based off of what they're seeing and and the way that it works is you have all of these external polls and most of them are Partnerships between like a news organization or and a and a polling company but then you also have the polling companies that work for the campaigns and so they're doing internal polling they just don't release that and they usually I mean you can imagine how this works there's definitely a bias in 2012 with Mitt Romney he thought he was going to win ended up losing um there's there's definitely some bias but what you're starting to see is some of the external polling turned negative uh and just I

think yesterday or maybe it was the day before the Trump campaign actually released their internal polling for the swing States and I think part of that is the Catalyst part of it is also what's going on in the external polling but what I think is a fair Apples to Apples comparison is when you're looking at polling data you have to look at it in relation to previous election Cycles yeah and right now at least in in the service that we use that's you know the best is Real Clear Politics and and what they kind of innovated was we're going to take all the best pollsters and we're going to know who the best pollsters are but we're going to take average a running average over the last maybe 15 polls for each different category so maybe it's National head-to-head National 5way and then each swing state

and so real clear politics is probably the best source of truth that we have for you know where are the polling numbers going and you kind of have to look at it from a trend perspective but then like I said you have to look at it in comparison to last cycle and right now the head-to-head has I think Kamala Harris up 1.8% in National polls on average but where that Compares is I think it was 88.1% for Biden and then I think it was 5.6% on the same day basically October 11th in 2020 and then in 2016 and so she's still three points behind where Clinton was in 2016 and obviously we know that he won that election and so I think what we're starting to see is what

you have to assume if you know if if there is a hope you know for things to change is that the polling has fundamentally changed in the last two election cycles and it's a hard assumption to make just because the way that people collect polling data is by phone calls and text messages and like the process hasn't fundamentally changed that much maybe there's less kind of like shy Trump voters this election cycle maybe there's more I think it's it's going to be really interesting to see the bias ultimately from where the polls were and what the final election tally is but yeah the way that we think about it is the comparison between 16 and 20 and and she's behind by a lot I'm interested that as well whether or not there are more shy Trump vs this time initially around the time of his

assassination attempt I thought no but now I'm leaning a little bit more I think there probably still is and I mean the whole election cycle has changed since then because it's a new candidate it's you know all the things but it's pretty crazy how far how fast the new cycle is and how much we've moved on I mean that feels like forever ago and that was only a couple months ago totally you know and the other thing too about poly Market I think Paul Graham right the YC guy y you know I saw him tweeting out a lot of people have been tweeting out that poly Market is being gamed and you know Paul Graham tweeted something out about you know poly Market is being gamed and it's you know poly Market is showing something very Divergent from what polls are showing maybe there's an Arbitrage you know I

don't mean to dunk on Paul Graham he's smart guys's made a ton of money and everything that's not how Arbitrage works you know you can't ARB a market against polls that doesn't make any sense but also I just I hate this take that poly Market is rigged in some way I mean you know it's flipped now in between Camala Harris and Trump a bunch of times and every single time one of the candidates takes the lead that other side just says oh someone's pushing this market around or manipulating it you know has been a really close election and I don't know I just don't really buy that take yeah I mean that's going to be the other really interesting point as you start to see the the averages of these polls come through and then put that data up against the poly market trends and then put that final data with

the final tally and see ultimately who was the most right I mean wisdom of the crowds would suggest poly Market definitely has an edge uh the way I also think about it is um there's basically three uh prediction markets there's poly Market there's predicted and now there's Ki yep and um I mean I think K's been around for a while they've been chugging they're they've been really trying to do it the right way correct but I think it was the last two weeks or maybe the last week where they had an official okay from the cftc they have been around for a while uh and predicted has also been around for a while but it's extremely Limited in terms of who can get access to it way lower volume way lower volume and so I kind of don't really count predicted in there but Ki also has Trump favored I

think 2% um obviously poly Market is way higher um it's much more liquid um and so it it'll be interesting I have also heard um anecdotally I think I showed this last week that uh there are a number of large buyers of Cala tokens on poly Market just as a pure hedge a hedge um expecting that Trump would be more favorable to crypto I think we can debate that um but ultimately I I think people are looking at it as a hedge and maybe that hedge is over at this point and and people are just kind of running with it um but it'll be interesting given the the Keynesian beauty contest construct of prediction markets um it it isn't what I think will happen it's what

I think most other people will think will happen and that's how you need to evaluate it and so it it is an interesting uh second order effect of how these prediction markets function where it's not just pure I think Trump should win or I think tomala Harris should win it's how I think the rest of the population will vote right let's talk about how this has come up a number of times actually permission list so far this week how a trump Victory versus a Harris Victory might impact crypto and people are trying to slice and dice as well just overall good and bad you know from a price appreciation standpoint from an ability to operate in the US standpoint but also you know the we've talked about this before a little bit everyone

there's so much consensus that if Trump wins it's just going to everything's up and to the right which might happen but usually consensus isn't always 100% right uh and there was Quinn uh Thompson one of the hosts of forward guidance now had a interesting thought that and I just hadn't thought about this and I'm not sure what I still think about it but yeah actually CU right now the the I would say the consensus view is that if Trump wins it's very good for alts like like probably eth and salana and you know sell Bitcoin by alts right uh but he actually made a point that it could go the other way which would be interesting because if you imagine a world where okay let's just all of these regulatory uh you know constraints that we've had in the US is operating as a

protocol all right get rid of them right you can just operate as a protocol you can return Revenue to token holders if you want you can do token value acrel everyone's like great this is awesome and then you start looking at the metrics and you're like whoo this looks expensive you know like like none of these alts look priced correctly you know so you could I don't know what you think about that little pet Theory it's an interesting perspective I look I think um fortunately for us we operate with a venture scale perspective yeah um we're not going to be making trades based off of election results and in fact it's actually kind of interesting and talking with a bunch of our LPS and and partners it's like they are their perspective right now is

that it's a no trade zone yeah and it has been basically for the last 30 days and it's like it's not it's not waiting to see who wins it's just waiting to see this thing over to be able to move past this uncertainty and then know where to operate from and and so I think what will happen is ultimately no matter who wins it's going to be fundamentally bullish because there's a removal of uncertainty uncertainty yeah um and I mean the other the other perspective here which I've been hearing a couple of times now um which I agree with is um like I when I played football you'd watch tape afterwards and uh coaches would always say like it never looks as good or it never looks as bad on tape as you thought it in in live in person and if you make a great play it's like oh it

looks kind of stupid or if like you got blown up you're like oh it actually wasn't that bad I think it's going to be something similar here where like if Trump gets elected it's not going to be as good as people expect because people think it's going to Rocket you know Bitcoin is going to rock it to 100K the next day like that's probably not going to happen maybe it does but then we're in Risk of like blowing off the top totally um and and I think it's not going to be as bad uh if if she gets elected because there are structural things that will need to change I think you know things like Gary Gensler and um we can get into this too but like it looks more and more uh the case that that the Senate will will flip and fundamentally the Senate and the house

are constructive on crypto and I don't think that there's going there will be some sort of regulatory change it'll just take longer and that's actually a good thing and and so the other perspective that I have is like the thing that we don't want is the blow off the top effect basically like we had in q1 with thef February every single day was positive like that chart is insane and it probably pulled a lot of potential from the rest of the year and you know that's where we're sitting right now uh so I I would say it's probably not going to be as good or as bad as people expect there will probably be some emotional trading around the election but I think it's going to be positive going into 25 no matter what it's just going to it it depends on how how fast basically I agree with that and

I think that wait and see approach has explained why crypto has traded a little bit funny I mean even if you look at the S&P 500 it's just been a straight line up this year and crypto is very correlated to the NASDAQ now and you know we're entering finally we've talked about on the show a million times a a global rate cutting cycle and an easing cycle we got people forget about that yeah people forget about that we got 50 50 bips over here you know in the last fomc but in China they cut their Reserve re by basis points they made it much EAS to get aage to up their housing market they also took this crazy you know pretty unprecedented step where they let certain institutional investors actually borrow from the government to buy stocks yeah think about that that's nuts

imagine if we heard that over here Fed was like hey guys you know you can uh use your treasuries as collateral you know take him go sell it buy stocks yeah you like buy everything both yeah yeah so I mean I think that people it's to forget about that and I think once this huge uncertainty gets removed it's going to be pretty positive no matter what yeah and and structurally too I think you know there's a lot of really positive momentum on the regulatory side and it's just a lot of people are waiting um you know there's not going to be any interest in in putting things forward by the end of the year maybe something gets put forward just as a a proof positive for what the next Congress will do but starting in January it's game on from from a legislative perspective yeah all right I got to get

your uh perspective on the Satoshi unveil oh my God yeah I'm I'm looking up the details here uh right now but they got they got got named as Peter Todd um who is you know in a lot of ways I guess fits the profile of someone who could be Satoshi but well I don't want to editorialize it too much but a lot of this was was based on uh you know a very quick comment that Peter Todd made in the very early days which you know the the documentarian uh he concluded that it was act Peter accidentally posted from the wrong account and then went to change it um there was one other thing too that I'm blanking on but uh yeah what do you I I don't think it's Peter

Todd I don't either no I don't think it is um yeah I mean I didn't see the full thing I just saw the clip of them kind of revealing to him in the in the video that they think it's him yeah and his reaction I think is Kind of Perfect in that he's just like that's so funny yeah and all the bitcoiners are going to love this because they know it's not me and they're just going to be like oh look at this journalist trying to you know point the finger at a new person and guess what it's not me and everyone's going to know it and so jokes on you and it's just like yeah that's exactly the reaction that you would expect from someone who's not actually Satoshi so do you think that it would matter if if they found someone who everyone was like

oh yeah this probably is Satoshi and he or she or they or whatever was still alive do you think it would matter well I don't know if this is real or not one of the other people well this part is real but um Len Swan Swanson sasman sasman yeah um he on poly Market of course there was a poly market for this was at least trending up uh and going into the launch of the video and it's I mean there's a lot of lore around this but um unfortunately he committed suicide in in 2012 or 2011 um and so he's no longer here but apparently um there was some note that was left behind and like there's some cryptic something in there and so I think the only thing that actually matters to get to the

point is what happens to the million Bitcoin wallet that is sitting out there that nobody supposedly has access to yeah and so structurally that's the only thing that really matters if it I I actually think it's probably a combination of a few people um and I don't have any you know strong evidence one way or another as to who those people are but it's probably not just one person yeah um and so I think it's probably you know maybe someone who's still alive today maybe someone who's not like other people that we've talked about or that have been talked about is halny um he's the one that everyone always exactly so he he passed away from ALS I think in 2011 as well um but ultimately you know it doesn't really matter who the person is um because it is what it is at this point I think what

does structurally matter is who has access to that million token W yeah how much is it it's 1.1 million Bitcoin right I think so yeah it's quite a bit it's like 5% of all Bitcoin you know what's funny I remember reading when coinbase filed to go public you know they have to list their risk all the all the risks yeah and they actually included that as a risk oh yeah cuz it is right it would be that would be challenging for markets if if that if those coins started to move like I I could see the whole Market selling off 20% one day I mean look uh just today um I think Mount gox this morning said that they're not going to be Distributing the mount gox uh portion until or part of it until uh October 31st 2025 I think that announcement is what drove bitcoin price

like 2 and a half% today yeah so it's like well if that like 50,000 Bitcoins can drive it that much you know what could the rest of it do hopefully it's not linear from that that would be a big uh that would be a big that would be a very big swing but look I mean they're going to be top taking the market October 31st 2025 they are yeah actually for sure if the uh if the algo plays out but I I think that's basically all the stories that we had this week but uh dude it's good to see you in real life uh I know always fun to be here this is the best event oh thanks man I appreciate it yeah um we'll have to get Vance we'll get him in the next one get some RNR and uh come back next week our

boy and we'll see uh whose predictions ended up right on this uh Kane and and David fight that's G to be interesting they're live streaming it on uh on bess's YouTube as well so all right yeah we we'll be there in person so uh all right cool all right buddy all right [Music]