Is this the last big Bitcoin dip before new highs? with John Gillen

Transcript

As soon as the market starts to flip bullish, as soon as we start to see confirmation of a breakout, you could see an enormous amount of capital from retail, from institutions from all over the place come into crypto and digital assets in a way that has never been possible. >> What's up everybody? It's LG Ducet here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that can't decide what it hates more, the price action on Ethereum or the fact that I'm holding tons of it. Today is May 18th, 2026. Bitcoin is pulling back and it turns out many analysts actually called this both internally at Milk Road and on the show last week, but this may be part of a deeper issue in the economy as bond yields rise and send shock waves through the market. And maybe this time, just maybe, it won't just be crypto going

down. Today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile carrier. Feros, the layer 1 built for real and Nexo. Earn interest, borrow, and trade crypto. John, I didn't even say you were going to be on the show in the intro, but I think people assumed it. >> Yeah. Well, we started doing this every Monday, so if people are paying attention, they might have caught on to that pattern by now. But, uh, it's really good to be with you, LG. I'm >> How awesome would it be to do this every day? Just you and me just shooting the [ __ ] watching watching the price action on Ethereum. >> This is this is some foreshadowing, but yeah, I think we'll do a little bit more than shooting some [ __ ] but um yeah, it's it's it's always a good time.

>> Always a good time, man. Uh, listen, I I I I have a confession to make to you after I um after I go through this little bit, which is that last week, literally a week ago in the Discord as we were popping off to like 81 $82,000 Bitcoin, you were telling people in the Milk Road Pro Discord that we were due for a pullback, maybe pulling back to like 70K or so. And then that sentiment and analysis was also shared uh by a friend of the podcast, Julio Mareno, who from Crypto Quant, who came on for his regularly scheduled bare appearance uh and told us the same thing. And this is this is after he told us back on March 15th that we were going to go up to around the range that we were at at the LA end of last week. And then um last

week he told us uh that we were we were bound back down for 70k through through a slew of different metrics that he shared on the show, but basically that thesis is playing out. Yeah. So, I think just to give a little bit of context on this, um I have had a bullish bias for the last several months here. Um as Bitcoin has been trending up and going higher, we've been coming up towards this retest of the bare market resistance band. And I think we've now kind of seen that retest. And the the thing I was watching for was to see whether or not the momentum that we were showing was going to be strong enough to break through that and flip that into support um and indicate that Bitcoin had moved from a bare market into a bull market and was now going to continue

higher. Um, it seems like what we've seen happen here is that Bitcoin has gone up, tested that resistance, and found some, you know, resistance and gotten rejected. Now, what I'm watching for at the moment, I I, as I said in the Discord, there's a chance that that means that this is a rejection, that this is a failed rally, and that we're going to continue to to see the bare market price action play out, and that could see us sweep the lows of 70K, maybe lower. But I I don't think that that's like a foregone conclusion because there's also scenarios where, you know, we went up to 81 82K, tested the the resistance, and we've come back down. Now we're holding in the high 70s.

It's not to say that we can't go up and do another retest, right? Like it's not to say the market has to go to 70K immediately, but I'm starting to to lean in that direction for a few reasons that Julio also mentioned. The biggest one being that a lot of this movement higher we've seen has been on leverage on speculation. Um and uh I think just people just you know front running the the Clarity Act other things just expecting Bitcoin to move higher. But we haven't seen a lot of spot volume come in to support that that movement as well. And so that that low um spot volume um makes things dangerous for a lot of reasons because it means the order books are thinner and they can be cleared. Um so in the last 24 hours just here we've seen Bitcoin pull back pretty

sharply and along with that we saw I think $700 million the number is changing uh pretty regularly here but around $700 million of liquidations in in the digital asset space. Now a lot of this was actually in altcoins in Ethereum and in other things. Um so that's interesting to me because it means that a lot of the leverage that's speculating is you know speculating on uh things outside of Bitcoin which to me would imply that people are speculating on the Clarity Act, right? So they're they're thinking, okay, if if the Clarity Act gets passed, then that's generally bullish for the altcoin space. Um, and so they're they're kind of taking a speculative long on on digital assets outside of Bitcoin there. Um, but we at any event, we saw these liquidations happen. We've seen this pullback. And I think at the moment, um,

what I'm watching for is to see do we go back down and where do we find support or do we see the market come in here and have the bulls find some some strength and push back up to retest the top of that range. Um, but right now I'm kind of leaning more in the direction of we've seen the retest. We we couldn't get the the volume, the momentum um to to break through that. And so I'm kind of thinking we're going to go down and see if we find support at 75K um or or 70K. But I don't think I think that the the strength of this rally and the length of this rally for me makes me feel like I don't think we see new lows in this market. It's possible that we could see a sweep of the lows from February. Um, but I don't think we'll

spend significant amount of time going lower or further low, like spend a significant amount of time at new lows. And if we do make new lows, I don't think there'll be very deep ones. So, um, that's kind of where I am with this right now. And the the outlook for the moment adding into this, by the way, I'll just say this as well because we'll probably talk about this later, but Michael Sailor this morning announced a $2 billion buy of Bitcoin. Um, so that is like I think he's kind of like literally almost single-handedly holding up the market right now. So, >> isn't that scary though? Isn't that Isn't that just tell you something about the market though that it's like without that wouldn't we just be at 50k? You know what I mean? Like not that not that he's he's single-handedly has propped up

$25,000 worth of per Bitcoin. Uh which would be like what's the what's the market cap right now for Bitcoin? Two trillion 1.6 trillion or something like that. >> So that means he'd be holding up third a third of it basically, right? So >> he's holding a lot of right now. But what I'm saying is that like does that not concern you that it's just like the only, you know, huge part of the demand is just coming from one dude and his idea versus the actual market demanding it. Does that is that not of concern to you? >> No, because I think that you're seeing this happen in Ethereum. You're seeing it happen in Bitcoin. There's, you know, a large DAT uh strategy that's holding now over 4% of Bitcoin's total supply.

And, you know, Bitmine, um, Tom Lee's firm is now holding over 4% of the Ethereum total supply. I think that really what you're seeing is just conviction versus speculation, right? Like everybody I think now agrees and sees the value of digital assets, the long-term value there, um the strengthening fundamentals, the growing institutional adoption, many of these metrics that we point to on a regular basis, the growing um volume of of use of adoption of engagement of the actual networks and chains themselves and of the assets themselves. We're just not seeing that reflected in price appreciation or speculation. And a lot of this has to do with just this exact thing of like conviction taking um the coins and the assets away from people who are speculators or who have just low conviction, low time preference. Um so I think that's a natural function of the

markets of transferring assets from um weak hands to strong hands and from capital that is you know seeking shorterterm alpha and gains um towards capital that is looking for a longerterm thesis in that asset and in the in the market. So uh I I think it's a normal function of the markets. It doesn't really concern me. It's just an indication of kind of where we are in the the bare market. Um you have the people who are long-term convicted uh investors accumulating aggressively on the things they believe in. You're seeing this in Bitcoin. You're seeing it in Ethereum. You're seeing it in um in chain link and and many other assets as well of people who have long-term convictions in those things are are accumulating and are coming back with size now. And so that that was kind of the story we'd seen up to this point,

right? We'd seen I think it was a week or two weeks ago we talked about this but um in the prior one month prior to that podcast episode there had been I think 290,000 Bitcoin sold by short-term holders and then I think around 300 310,000 Bitcoin purchased by long-term holders in whale accumulators. So that's that same thing playing out and those those guys Tom Lee and Michael Sailor just get the most attention because they're sort of like the biggest people the biggest holders in that long-term capital pile right now. But it doesn't concern me. I don't think it's it's presenting any kind of risk to the network or to the the long-term health of the assets or the ecosystems that they're in. Um it's just sort of like a function of the markets and just a difference of conviction.

>> If you're not seeing this, you're trading blind right now. There are real moves happening behind the scenes that most people don't see until it's way too late. Inside Milkro Pro, you can track exactly what our analysts are buying, selling, and what's on their watch list before it moves. You can try it out for just a dollar for 7 days. The link is in the description. John you said uh in your prior answer too that due to the length and I think you said strength of this like rally let's say the rally from the low of 60k on February 3rd or whatever it was 2nd 5th that you don't think you think that that may indicate that the 60k was a bottom for this bear for cycle or whatever you call it what do you mean because that's not that's not that much time that's only like

three months that's only three months ago >> well I think it depends on where you measure the the start of the bare market from and you know as I've said a couple of times now I think you can uh make a case that the the bare market started much earlier than it did on the price chart right so if you look at other fundamental indicators of um network usage adoption um number of transactions activated wallets all these different kinds of things and then just look at the price action um of digital assets outside of just Bitcoin I think you can make an argument that the bare market started much sooner um and then October 10th was sort of like a a big kind of like market breaking point. So yeah, I think you can make arguments about where we are in the bare market here. And I'm

not really looking so much at the calendar because I'm still one of these people who believes that a lot of these things, these cycles and markets are driven by things that are um exogenous to just time. Um and they're really a function of global liquidity and many other macro cycles that play out in the markets. So, I'm I I think what I'm what I'm indicating here is that the the amount of time that Bitcoin spent painting this bare flag, if it does turn out to be a bare flag, uh was so much longer than historical trends and norms that it would suggest to me that there's enough conviction in the markets here and enough capital, enough bulls in the markets here that we probably won't see enough selling pressure to get us to new lows. Cuz we went through like an apocalyptic level sentiment reversal

after 1010. Like there was there were no bulls left. It was like months we spent in extreme fear. And I think that that really kind of shook out a lot of people who had a short-term thesis and were just in in crypto for the speculation and expecting a blowoff top. So now I do think that what's left is convicted capital. And I do think that presents a a greater thesis that we've formed a bottom and a and a a basis to build for the next bull run. Now, how long that takes to start really showing that in the price action, debatable, but I I just don't really see that we're going to find more people who are willing to sell their coins um after we've gone through that that much fear for that long um and find enough coins to sell to get us down below where we've already

been. >> So, I guess I guess the only thing that would maybe potentially supersede that theory that you're putting forward is is some kind of black swan, right? like an FTX or something like No, but I I mean just play devil's advocate >> like an October 10 >> like another October 10th. That's what I'm saying is like in in a normal stance perhaps that that is correct. But if there was another major issue or implosion or scandal, company whatever um that something like what you you that would potent would mark a new bottom probably maybe um but if that doesn't happen then we may have bottomed on in that February dip basically >> in in economics we like to use the

phrase cetus parabus which means all else being equal. So like assuming the Iran conflict doesn't escalate into nuclear World War II, you know, etc. Like all else being equal, it seems like we've established a bottom on Bitcoin and we're trying to build a base for a bull run. >> Nuclear. I can't I hope this never happens. And please nobody be offended by this be taking this inest. But if ever there are there's a there are nuclear bombs dropping, there's no way I'm doing a daily crypto show with you. Like there's >> it's okay. >> There's no way, dude. There's been [ __ ] nukes going off that I got to show up here on Mondays with John and be like, "Hey, we're with John Gillan.

John, what's up with Ethereum, man? Is Tom Le going to buy more?" Oh, he's everything where he lived got blown away. Like, it doesn't like there's no way we're going to keep doing the show that ever happens. And it won't. It really won't. Okay, so everybody just chill. Uh I hope not. If not, well, if not, then we won't be here for it. U Okay, John. The what? While I'm talking, uh which people love one thing. um I wanted to confess to you is that based on your analysis last week and in Milkwood Pro for anybody who wants it a dollar for seven days throwing it out there you want to talk to John every day you can especially Saturday nights um based on your analysis and then also being like you know what maybe I should listen to people like Julio who come on

and you know Julio is an awesome guy just comes on he's like listen I got all my charts here let's just go through them and here's just like all these technicals that that you know onchain analysis that you should really listen to. I took a short position last week and I closed it this morning. Just putting that out there, okay? That the DGEN is back. The DGEN is back uh in the trenches. Doesn't matter up or down. He's here to make money. All right? You know, so I could take take my family to dinner this week basically. My profits uh especially that's a lot of money in Canada these days to to take your Actually, you know what? It's probably enough for grocery shopping. I don't think it's going to be enough to go to dinner anymore because I think the local local stores are running out running out

of chicken and beef. So, anyways, I'm just saying that I think I I I I I felt the courage based on your analysis to actually make some kind of move, some kind of short-term DJ move. So, thank you, sir. Uh despite it being in the opposite direction of what we want. >> No comment. >> No, I'll take you to dinner next time I see you, if I ever see you in real life. How about that? We'll put it that way. >> Wonderful. Uh John, let's talk let's zoom out in the broader market because I pointed out that uh you know if the S&P closes red today, it'll be um its second market red day in a row, which actually hasn't happened since the end of April because May has pushed the S&P to levels that uh seemed unimaginable just a few months ago up to 7500 last week. Um and

a lot of this it seems from my chair and I missed a lot of last week. I was out sick. um that a lot of this is kind of tying back or a lot of this is is also manifesting in bond yields rising, right? And that that is kind of and this is more of a macro question for you. Uh and this could also correlate to to Bitcoin taking its dip, although again people like you did predict this, you know, before this started to happen, but if you could explain that situation to me a little bit more because I know a lot of people don't always necessarily tune into our macro show. um what that means while the why these yields are going up and why that that is spelling some potential doom or short-term doom for for the rest of the the rest of the

show or the economy. So to keep this kind of succinct, a lot of people have stopped thinking about caring about or paying attention to the economic impact of the straight of Hormuz continuing to being closed because we got a lot of distractions with Trump's trip to China and buying selling airplanes and soybeans to the Chinese and then we've also seen this enormous bullish reversal in the US equities markets. Um but at the same time, this closure is still going on. There is still a global energy and food crisis that's brewing and uh there's just a lot of economic impacts of that that are starting to ripple through the economy. One of the big ones that we saw in I think it was last week we saw the consumer um uh inflation data come out, the CPI data come out showing

that inflation is spiking and the the PPI the producing uh producers uh inflation index that uh is also spiking as well even more so than analyst forecast. So everybody was expecting these inflation prints to be hot. The numbers were even hotter than the expected hot inflation prints. Um so the economic impacts of this are starting to play out and to be felt. And what that means is that oil is still um pushing back up over $100. It's probably going to keep going higher. You know, it keeps like coming down on speculation that the the conflict will end, but it never does. So that shortage is still there.

The economic impacts are still there. That's starting to be felt and come through. And the the the forecast is it's going to continue to get worse. That is, you know, markets are forward-looking. So the bond markets are saying like, hey, we are specul like skeptical that all of these western governments are going to be able to fund themselves, pay their debts, um, and just manage this untenable economic situation. So it's sort of like in an a high inflationary environment, um, you know, the government has to react one way or another. They usually do this by printing money. This makes, you know, ripples in the bond market. And so the bond vigilantes are basically saying like we're expecting you to have to make some sort of paper move to inflate your currency and you know devalue your bonds um in order to deal with this crisis. So

we're not going to be bringing capital into the bond market right now because we think we're going to get a better deal. Um and so that is what the market is kind of sniffing out feeling and reporting and that's what that's what these numbers going higher mean. So when we quote um the bond market just so people understand like this pretty basic thing but it's important to understand when we quote the price of Bitcoin we do it in dollars when we quote the price of a stock we do it in dollars when we quote an index we do it by the the number of where it is on that index but the bond market you quote in the bond yields so when the bond yields are rising it means that the bond market is selling off because the market is willing to hire willing to pay a higher

rate of interest for capital to hold those bonds. Um and so those numbers going higher across western economies means that you know the US, Germany, Japan, across the board, all markets are investors are saying like we want more compensation to hold these bonds because we think they're going to be worth less because of the the economic and fiscal situation that's being created here. So that's what you're seeing playing out. And I think that the the the big punchline to this to me is that Kevin Worsh has stepped in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve basically being handed a the probably one of the worst setups a Fed chairman has had to deal with coming in.

>> Um and so he's got to save the day somehow. And I'm not sure what he and Scott Besson are going to do to manage this situation, but I do expect some kind of movement to kind of step in and control these bond yields here because if they let this go, it could get to be a runaway train pretty quickly. So, they really do have to manage the markets uh the market's expectations and keep these things kind of under control and stable because instability in the bond market is the worst thing you can have for a country and for an economy. So, that's kind of what's happening here. >> Oh my god. So, so everyone's going to So, so okay, so let me just The bond market is anticipating that there will be more money printed. Is that what you're saying?

>> Effectively, yeah. They're they're basically saying you're going to have to do something to get yourself out of this because you're currently on the untenable track. Yeah. >> Right. Okay. Okay. Is is there are there any other options besides printing more money again? >> Um >> not letting everything go into a depression. Yeah. Yeah. >> Any other realistic ones, let's say, because obviously it's not going to happen. So is it is it like >> they won't let that happen? that. But yeah, but see this is the thing that's really interesting about this is that the the solutions that are employed by governments to solve these problems are always novel and they're always sort of like learning from the last crisis that they solved and then like they try to fix whatever caused that last crisis and

then a new one comes and they have to come up with a new solution. So the the innovation around uh the central bank policy and and you know treasury department policy to solve these these problems looks different in different economies and it it looks different in different circumstances. But the thing that's interesting to see I think at this point is how Kevin Wars and Scott Bessant figure out to do this because they've gotten I think they have a different plan than the the old one which was just have the Federal Reserve buy a bunch of bonds off the open market, right? Open market operations. Obviously that's a pretty old tactic.

they've evolved from there too. But like these things aren't static and the way they go about in doing this capital injection or managing these markets or whatever they end up ultimately doing that has implications on the rest of the economy. There are certain winners and losers based on how they apply that. Um and so that that's the thing that's remains to be seen here. Um but I'm really curious to see what they do. >> Damn. Okay. And when when would they what is the timeline on that? Because I guess Kevin Worsh hasn't even been sworn in. What happens when you get what's the what's the name of the thing that happens to you?

>> Pal's no longer the chair of the Federal Reserve. Uh Wars has gotten through confirmed by the Senate. Um so I I don't know what timeline to expect on this. I know that >> Wait, what happens next though? He gets confirmed by the Senate and then what what's the what's the name of the >> Federal Reserve? >> He just becomes the chairman. >> Yeah. Well, he's been appointed by the president as chairman of the Federal Reserve. So >> it's contingent on the advice and consent of the Senate. So once the Senate gives the consent, then he's just confirmed. But there's no like coronation or anything like that. >> Coronation. >> This is America. We don't >> corate. The queen is the the queen is still in my $20 bill, dude. Okay. She's not she hasn't been alive for like two years. She's still on the bill. So

that's how that's how slow we move here. >> Uh up in the great white north. Yeah. Well, listen. What you're talking about is going to affect us too, man. Like I was saying, I try to fill my freezer with beef while I can before uh before the triples in price. Man, >> that's that's so it's going to affect everybody. And I think that to tie this back to crypto because this is a crypto show. This is a really important thing for uh all markets but also for the digital asset markets because historically Bitcoin and crypto have acted like the excess liquidity release valve for the markets. Um and so I think that that's something that a lot of people are expecting here is there are huge amounts of liquidity demands that the market is po is posing this year to fund the bond market to fund $4 trillion

of expected IPOs on the US capital markets to fund a lot of other things. This AI capex that's happening. So there's trillions of dollars of liquidity that are needed by the markets. I think that there are a lot of things that this administration has talked about to provide that liquidity in strategic ways. But regardless, there's a a huge amount of growing liquidity needs for by the market. And I think that the the national security risks that come from not meeting those needs are unacceptable and intolerable, especially in a midterm election year. I do think that the Trump administration, Scott Bessant, Kevin Worsh, all these players are going to devise some sort of strategy to meet these capital requirements and liquidity demands that the market is posing and the the beneficiary of that at some level will ultimately be risk assets. And historically, Bitcoin and crypto have

done very well in that kind of an environment. Um, so we'll we'll see what happens. I I don't know. I mean, look, there there's also people now are expecting that maybe we won't get any rate cuts. Maybe we'll see some rate hikes. I I'm not sure how all these things are going to play out. the ESLR requirements, the the res the um the requirements that for banks to manage their balance sheets have been changed as well so that they can hold a lot more US treasuries on their balance sheets which kind of brings back the commercial lending sector se sector that had been sort of shut down because of DoddFrank. So that could be another path for additional liquidity to come in. Several trillion dollars of US bonds could be taken off the market um that way which is you know functionally adding liquidity into the overall marketplace.

Anyway, I but we'll see how all these things play out. But it's important to watch because the results of this, the impacts of this affect everybody, every industry all around the world and and crypto has historically benefited a lot from these kinds of policy changes. >> Your phone carrier knows more about you than your best friend does. Where you go, who you call, when you sleep, and they're selling all of it. AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, they've all been caught leaking data or cashing in on it. And your VPN, your encrypted messaging app, they can't fix what's broken at the network level. That's where Cape comes in. Cape is America's privacy first mobile carrier. Same premium coverage you'd expect, built with privacy from day one. Your phone's network identifier rotates every 24 hours, so you look like a different subscriber every day. Call logs are deleted after 24 hours. You get

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rates, lower borrowing costs, and crypto cashback on trades. Benefits usually reserved for loyalty program members. Get started at milkroad.com/nexo. Got it. Yeah. So, kind of a little bit uncertain because typically this will be really bullish for crypto and it also kind of line up like I guess I guess this would I guess the timeline on all this is like basically through the summer, right? Like basically like cuz we're almost we're midway through Q2, more than midway through. So, you're looking at like a Q3 roll out. Probably going to be some kind of positioning of this stuff happening in a positive way before the midterms. I would assume if you're if you're Trump with the Republicans, maybe send everybody a big fat a new Trump check just before they go vote. You know, that kind of thing.

>> I I think that the these things have been happening, will continue to happen, and we'll you know what I mean? Like it's not like a they're going to flip a switch type of thing. But yes, I do think that they're going to try to keep this going very strongly and make sure the markets are supported in in all the ways they can. uh especially leading up to the midterms. >> Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. So, potentially good news then for crypto basically for this to happen. But bad news for everybody like if you're trying to buy eggs, you know, like bad continued bad news for basically anything else >> maybe. I don't know that. Look, I mean it depends on how they go about solving this and the methods that they implement like because it may not be the same impact. It's not the where they where

they where they go to implement this solution and how they deal with this doesn't have the same impact that prior um policy paths have had. I don't know. I'm getting kind of lost into what I'm trying to say here. But like the assumption that just because they're going to do something, it's going to directly benefit crypto may not hold again this time. That's what I'm trying to get across here. They're doing different things that's going to have different impacts and we're going to have to see what that is. Um because we don't know exactly what they'll do and we don't know what the impacts of that'll be. Um historically crypto has done well. I think it'll continue to do well regardless of all these things, but it's just another thing in the macro landscape to kind of keep in mind.

>> I I want to kind of if I could rewind a little bit to when we started discussing this when I first asked you about bond yields, um another thing you pointed out earlier today in our creator meeting, which I I had to skip, but was you or maybe you mentioned right before the show was um Tom Lee was posting this weekend about inverse correlation, right? and was tying was basically compared oil and Ethereum and how they regularly diverge, right, which is not uncommon. I would assume that oil and many other things uh often diverge uh in terms of their their uh correlation, but is that is that is that a bit worrisome to you to see Tom Lee be relatively bearish short term here?

>> Uh I think what he's just describing is sort of what we've talked about a little bit here. He So what Tom Lee posted about was describing the inverse correlation to between Ethereum and oil prices has never been this high before. Meaning that as oil prices go higher, Ethereum prices are going lower. And that correlation has never been this high. They're moving pretty closely with one another. As oil goes up, heat goes down type of thing. >> So that is what he was pointing out. This is like um a historical anomaly. They don't usually move either together or separately. They kind of vary. But right now there's a historical deviance from the trend which is that that inverse correlation has gotten really strong and it it's not a normal thing to see. But I think that you know he's kind of like identifying he's not saying that

ETH and oil are related in any direct way. But he's saying that that the market is is moving um in one way or another here based on a lot of things we talked about like the the impacts the economic impacts of the straightfor being closed are are hitting the markets in different ways and you know it's hitting the bond market it's hitting inflation it's hitting crypto prices right and so that's what he's basically pointing out here is that as this energy crisis continues to get worse and capital starts to react in the markets to that energy crisis and the impact of it um it's not that capital is not going to other places one of the other places it seems like it it would have been going would be to crypto, digital assets, Ethereum. Um, and so that's what he's kind of pointing out is this like

tugof-war over capital and the the competing constraints and demands in the market. >> Got it. Okay. Okay. John, do you based on everything you just told me, do you feel like on the stock side at least, and I go again, we're crypto show, but I think it's been it's been hard to be a crypto show or crypto person for the last 6 months as um the stock market, not all stocks, some of the leading stocks have led the the stock market uh to new all-time highs. You had also been mentioning that naturally there would be a pullback. I mean, this is a slight pullback like I mentioned earlier. Do you do you anticipate that to continue down? Do you do you think we we we're due for like a relatively major cooling in the general

equities market? >> I just I don't think it's everything goes up in a straight line forever. Obviously, there's going to be some cooling here, but I don't see any it's I'm not I'm not bearish on the stock market at this point. I think that we're seeing economic reaceleration. I think the business cycle is picking up. I think that you're seeing manufacturing hitting like you know the ISM is is well above 50. It's staying above 50. the Korean stock market is is exploding higher. Um, a lot of things like you know the trucking industry is seeing all-time highs in in demand there. So, the US manufacturing industry is picking up a lot from this AI capex stuff.

You're going to see a lot of companies start to apply AI technology to increase their GDP while reducing their their costs for for doing the same amount of businesses, business activity. You'll see businesses scale. You'll see new businesses launch. So, I I think that there's a lot of reasons to stay bullish on the the continued growth of the economy, the continued upward trajectory of the overall S&P 500 index, even though there will be a lot of uh you know, companies in that index that do not benefit from these circumstances or from AI and they're going to be on the wrong side of this scarcity of compute and of energy um situation that we've talked about. But overall, I think it goes higher. I just think that it doesn't go in a straight line. So, that's why I was saying like we're going to see some kind of cooling off. It's

not just going to teleport from 6,400 or wherever we started this rally from straight to 8,000 without any kind of uh you know cooling off period, right? So I I'm not trying to call when that is or what that looks like, but I'm just like, hey, you know, little turnaround here kind of makes some sense, but we've already recovered um this morning futures we opened down and then we recovered up to to new highs again. So um yeah, I just it's it's going to be a volatile year and it's going to be a volatile time, but yeah, I don't know. just it seems like we've seen some cooling in Bitcoin and in risk assets and in the S&P, but I don't think that that means we won't continue. I'm interested to see how the market reacts to Nvidia's earnings this week um on Wednesday because what we've seen from

them in the past is they they have really strong ear earnings, then they sell off for whatever reason, and then and then they recover really quickly and keep going further. So, um yeah, there's just going to be more volatility directionally higher, but not in a straight line. And the other thing too, and this is this is something that I feel is going to be a big factor, and I I don't know if it's really hit everybody yet, is that there's a potential, or I believe it's it's almost efficient now. SpaceX IPO next month, and you would be at a historic moment if a company went public at $2 trillion, which is relatively what or at least at least north of a trillion. Um, but even in a lot of pre-markets, it's it's somewhere between one and two, closer to two. That would be to me

When there's something like that that happens, there's got to be some kind of consequence or counter effect somewhere. I don't know whether that's a ton of a ton of new capital coming to the market by people finally uh selling because there's going to be people that are early investors in SpaceX that are up like crazy, I'm sure. Um and even and even probably new relatively relatively new investors as well. But that there's also this there's also rumors of like would SpaceX and Tesla eventually merge. U there's there's a lot of people pointing to be like listen opening at $2 trillion is actually maybe still re massively undervalued for something like SpaceX and its potential and a lot of stuff that people are talking about data centers and a lot of stuff that we cover on Milk Road AI. So I think that to me

that is like you know right now it's funny you brought up Nvidia earnings. That's usually the thing that every quarter everybody looks to in terms of the stock market to be like okay is it going to be positive or negative? we're going to take a dip anyways. Nvidia is going to go down a little bit and market gets a little shook up. To me, a company going out there and opening at $2 trillion in an unprecedented way is another potential like top or start of another rip. You know, you don't know how the how the how um how anybody how the market will react to that and I don't think any anybody could really tell you. So, that's something I'm going to be watching and I'm sure we're going to be covering a lot um in Milkroad Pro and on in our Milk Road AI channel as

well. Melvin and Vincent, I'm sure going to be all over that one as we get closer. But something that's hard to predict or even think about because when's the last time an asset debuted in like the top 10? It's like impossible, especially at this historic high. >> Well, this is kind of what I was saying before is that there's enormous amounts of liquidity demands that are in the markets right now and it's imperative that the United States finds that liquidity to support those things. I agree with you. There'll be some kind of draw, some selling pressure in all other markets as as this capital is pulled into into SpaceX here. Um, but overall though, like the US can't really sustain, >> you know, an economic recession in the middle of this huge economic mobilization to to support AI. So, I think that that that results in a demand

for government policy action to support these things. We'll see if that's true or not, but >> and like I said, I don't know what that'll look like or not, but there's there's there's a lot that's going to be happening this year. They're not the only ones going public. There's a lot of other big ones that are are are looking at going public or are going to go public. So yeah, there's just a lot to pay attention to with that, but there's going to be a lot of a lot of capital moving around one way or the other. >> Oh yeah, absolutely, man. Uh that's a good way of putting it. John, is there anything else on your radar this week besides I mean Nvidia earnings? Not really on your radar. It's not a crypto thing, but is there anything else you're watching now that Clarity uh made it

through the Senate committee, banking committee, sorry. And uh is there anything else anything else on the crypto side you're you're keen to to scope out? >> Just that I think that the Clarity Act uh the the Senate Banking Committee session was surprisingly um encouraging. I think that there were two Democrats that voted in favor of it. That was a bit of a surprise. And while they I think said that just, you know, a vote to advance in the committee does not guarantee a vote to advance on the floor, it it does seem constructive. It does seem like there's positive momentum and maybe more than people were expecting. So, I'm now leaning back in favor of the Clarity Act passing, which the market also is leaning in that direction as well, which would be a really interesting opportunity because if if we do see Bitcoin continue this

correction and this dip goes lower and maybe we do go to 70K or even lower than 70K, then, you know, by July, the Clarity Act becomes a law, you might get a chance to like really get some good solid accumulation on crypto digital assets here prior to the act passing. Um, and then Yeah. And so I I think that this is like an interesting setup because it seems like now we've gotten some sort of like actual real indication that there's there's political will to make this bill pass which would be very bullish for the whole industry and at the same time we're seeing a pullback in markets on on on digital assets here. So there could be some some good opportunities there.

Um and I think you know there's some debate about which digital assets benefit the most from this. I think they all benefit. um it's just uh you know there's there's going to be a broad-based um adoption and support and investment and innovation around digital assets now that happens in the United States because of this. So I think there's an opportunity with that that I'm watching pretty closely. Um and then just yeah in general I think it's just a good time to be looking for value in the digital assets industry that is not being properly understood or appraised by the market and then take take your position for the long view because this is a good time to take a long view of this asset class and that's what Michael Sailor's doing. That's what Tom Lee is doing. Um, and I think everybody should figure out what their version of that

looks like and and and come up with their strategy for that. Um, because this is a great time to do it. >> Trillions of dollars in real world assets are stuck offchain. Real estate, commodities, private credit, all locked behind outdated systems that weren't built for a global 24/7 economy. The fix, bring those assets onchain. Problem is, most blockchains weren't designed for that either. Feros is. It's a layer 1 purpose-built for reali, a real world financial infrastructure that lets assets be tokenized, verified, and traded at institutional scale. We're talking parallel execution for serious throughput, compliance baked in from day one, and infrastructure that actually connects onchain and off-chain systems.

They've got a $10 million incubator backing builders who want to make real a reality. Join the Atlantic Ocean test net and start building at milkroad.com/faros network. >> I love that. Okay, great. Well, I mean I you you found a way to that despite all that to still end us in a in a in a bullish kind of rally way. So not an actual rally, but like a get me pumped about crypto kind of way. Johnny, I feel like you're always good for that and and a lot of us in Milk Road appreciate you for that. >> Yeah, absolutely. while the while the fear and greed indicator is in this neutral to red zone or yellow zone. Um this is just like a wonderful opportunity because like I said like the fundamentals just keep getting better across the board and everybody is speculating on other things in AI and in

the equities markets and so forth or or in gold or whatever they're doing but they're not really watching this um as closely as they should be and I think it's it's just like one of the best opportunities in the markets from that perspective, right? Like if you have that longer term view it's it's one of the best opportunities I've ever seen. Do you think we'll hit all-time highs this year? >> I hope so. I I'm not certain that that'll happen, but I think that there's enough. So, look, I think that there's a rising amount of capital that's that's liquid, like the hot ball of money that everybody talks about is getting bigger and gaining mass. And the great thing about that is that because we've seen all these technological innovations, tokenization, so forth, all these different kinds of things that digital assets have unlocked, that hot ball of

money is able to move much more quicker, much more quickly rather. Um, and it's gotten more intelligent. So we're sharing information. We're innovating on how we do capital formation and how markets are able to um the the rapidity with which markets are able to incorporate new information into price action and to to reallocate accordingly. So I think that presents a a lot of situations or like it provides the necessary preconditions for the markets to radically repric assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum much higher much more quickly than in the past. Um, and so that access these proliferation of new ETF, ETP products for for digital assets, all of these things are creating circumstances where as soon as the market starts to flip bullish, as soon as we start to see confirmation of a

breakout, you could see an enormous amount of capital from retail, from institutions, from all over the place come into crypto and digital assets um, in a way that has never been possible before. And the the thing I think is also unique about this asset class is that the scarcity of it presents a much higher likelihood of a short squeeze or of a supply shock which could really um push the price into overvaluation territories that other assets um might not be able to to do as well. So um I I don't know. I just think it's a really interesting setup where you could see Bitcoin be languid bearish for a long time and then just suddenly be like, "Yeah, I'm 200k now." Um, so like that's that's a real possibility and uh you know we'll see. I I would love to see a

new all-time high though in 2026 because that would really firmly invalidate this four-year cycle hypothesis and everybody would be forced to like update how they're thinking >> update there. Yeah. Yeah. >> Right. >> It would be nice to have a new narrative like that. I do agree with that part is that if if anything that would be the benefit. I mean I love alltime highs this year, don't get me wrong, but it's like I would love to there to be I would love for that fouryear cycle thing to be broken after it was so almost firmly validated at this most current most recent you know kick of the can. So that would be it would be great for that correlation.

>> Yeah, that's yeah totally. But it's still you know it's still there one way or another. So all right John, thank you sir. Thank you for your thoughts. Uh, we got a lot of great shows coming up this week on Milk Road and Milk Road Macro and AI. So, make sure you guys check that out, John. Otherwise, a pleasure as always. >> Pleasure is all mine, LG. I happy to do it. I'm looking forward to the next one. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.