Onchain data, institutional accumulation and the Bitcoin supply shock with Julio Moreno

Transcript

I think the market already you know have priced you know what the Fed will do like everyone expects another rate cut only if like it's a like a bigger cut right that will be like a really positive catalyst but it's not what is expected but the US China tariffs I I think that if we get that out of the way then it can be you know the the really positive Q4 can resume >> GM good morning welcome to the milk road show the Another Gryptor show where we're not sure if October is still on or cancelled. I'm your host Jay Hamilton.

It's Monday, October the 20th. Bitcoin wick down to 103K on Friday, has since regained 110K as of this recording. Big question on everyone mind is, you know, have we found a local bottom? Is there more pain to come? Are we still bullish for Q4? talking about all-time highs and when does this cycle end? Does the cycle end in Q4 as many are predicting? Or does it go into 2026? Does it even go into 2027? And what are our price predictions for Bitcoin? These are the questions that we're answering today with our fave Bitcoin price and chart prediction expert. I'm talking about

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, one of the leading onchain data and analytics provider. Before we jump in and hear from Julio, super excited to tell you guys about something that the Milk Road team has been cooking on recently. I'm talking about our new research hub page. This is where we bring together all of the charts that our team looks at and how we make investment decisions all in one place. I'm talking about our favorite cycle indicators, our asset breakdowns, our token breakdowns, our high yield strategy of what to do with your cash that's sitting on the sidelines and how to gain stable coin yield on it. So, check out the link in the show notes to dive into all these charts that really

help any investor capitalize on the opportunity. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups, just real returns. It's also brought to you by the Gemini credit card. Stack Bitcoin every time you swipe. No fees, no fluff, just crypto rewards. With that, welcome back to the show, Julio. >> Hello, Jay. Thanks for having me back. >> Always a pleasure, my man. Great to see you. Uh, it's a it's been a roller coaster. Last time we got you on, we were we were all excited and looking to Q4 with great momentum on the macro side. And then last week we or sorry, two weeks ago, I guess now weeks are so

hard to keep track of in crypto. Things happen so fast. We had the biggest liquidation event that we've ever had. We're going to talk about that. But before we jump in, just, you know, as we sit here October 20th, you know, through this roller coaster, h how you feeling? How's the Cryptocoin community feeling? How's your team feeling? You guys feeling bearish, bullish? What's your general state right now? >> Well, I would I would talk about, you know, how the data is feeling. So, so it's it's a it's it's on the bearish side right now. uh really after the liquidation event that we experienced uh on October 10, uh a lot of the indicators of course when when the price comes down so quickly and as

sharp as as it did uh they they they turn they turn bearish, right? And so um and actually we were we're going to see that even some of the indicators that we follow about Bitcoin demand a few days uh before that we're were signaling you know contraction in demand after we had a uh the bull run to the run to the um previous alltime high. Right. So, it's a little bit of I guess we got to the all-time high and then some of the indicators were uh a little bit um maybe overextended uh as we can we would see on demand but also you know the all this uh talk about US and China trade

negotiations and then the tariff announcement. Uh so yeah it it it it the crypto markets took a really really big hit and so the indicators turned bearish and and now we need to wait you know as the dust settles and I wait a little bit to to for the momentum to come back right so yeah in general that's the the overall picture. It's it's it's a it's a pers an interesting point that a lot of it's very easy to broadwipe and say oh what happened with the current dip is all the result of macro and China US trade war and yes that was the the catalyst certainly but you are right as

we dive into the charts we will see that there actually was a setup that said that we were ready for a little bit of a dip and then that catalyst actually was the just the the the fire the the match that lit but we were already in sort of a dangerous position. So we'll jump into that. You're not a few guests have talked about that and and and it is an important thing to to remember. Now, that being said, there's also a great assuming we're going to dive into this, but assuming Trump and China can figure out the trade war and can get on the same page, which I am still very optimistic that they can because I think

this is all negotiation tactics where what do you do when you're going into negotiation? They're supposed to meet in November. Well, you throw shade and you go hard the other way to try to get your stance on solid footing. And that's really what Trump is doing here. So, I think the macro stuff will sort itself out. And I still believe we could have a bullish Q4, but we'll get to that. You're gonna have to stick around to the end of today's episode to hear what Julio thinks for Q4 and beyond. But let's start with the setup of just going back and explaining what happened with the liquidation event. Walk us through let's let's start with this.

>> What What happened with this deleveraging event? Take us through a couple charts here so we can see what happened. So yeah, when we said the leverage, uh, we're talking about the perpetual futures markets on on crypto exchanges. So this is this is futures data, not spot. So what you can see first in the left chart like that really big bar to the downside. That's October 10. Um, that's, you know, how much the open interest uh declined in one day. And this is just for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

uh actually so the liquidation there almost 20 billion just in that one day it's just for Bitcoin Ethereum in what in in terms of dollars is the largest liquidation ever right in terms of dollars because open interest is it's bigger now that it was in the past. So in terms of dollars it was the the largest and liquidation uh is meaning mostly the closing of long positions as prices decline right the exchanges start to to uh close the long positions right uh when they get to a certain price uh and liquidate you know the long positions of of traders but also some short positions uh because as the

liquidation was so big there wasn't enough like liquidity or or new long positions to match the shorts, right? Because a lot of people went short also. So the exchanges had to also liquidate some of those short positions. But mostly we're referring to long positions being liquidated. So people that thought prices will continue to to increase and so we got that those all those positions um liquidated uh from the market and and for Bitcoin Ethereum was 20 billion. In terms of the actual amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's comparable to it was a little bit um um lower or um short of the FTX liquidations actually.

So, it's it's kind of like in that ballpark area in terms of units, right? Bitcoin units and Ethereum units. Um but in terms of dollars, it was the biggest one. So, we're talking about like a really, you know, the a really big event in in the perpetual futures market. And you can see to the in the chart to the right, uh, a few days before that, we were around 78 billion in total open interest. So, that's the value of all the open positions. Uh, and so just in one day, we we almost got to, you know, 50 58 billion. uh and now we are hovering around 56. So that's that's the extent of the damage let's say if we can

call it that um of of the all the the traders that were that were uh operating and and got got liquidated. So yeah I mean that's the context in which we are going to see the following charts and metrics is that we come from that really big event uh really unprecedented event in the futures market. Now, let me ask you a couple quick questions before we jump into the next two charts. One, that open interest at 78 billion, that's Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest on centralized exchanges.

That's an all-time high, correct? >> Yes, that's an alltime high. Exactly. >> Right. So, we were at an all-time high in open interest, which which is often a signal that we are overleveraged. So, that that setup that you were talking about in the intro is is true. Uh the other thing I want to check in on here is a lot of people saying that given that we had such a large liquidation in terms of dollar values at 20 billion. Uh interesting that it wasn't the largest liquidation in terms of units um compared to FTX. But a lot of people are saying they're actually surprised that price held as well as it did given the scale of liquidation. What's your sense on that?

Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's that's something that really it's really interesting to see because I mean, we only got to in that at that day I think it was like 110, right? >> Yeah. >> So, yeah. I mean, it tells you obviously about what's the floor for price, right? Um, uh, it doesn't cause like a, you know, doesn't put you in a bearish market, right? because there's there's still demand and then there of course the the floor price um also it's much higher than in previous cycles. So you can have that, you know, that liquidity uh coming off the market and still, you know, there's there's there's uh there's

demand still that that doesn't allow prices just to to go to basically uh into a bearish uh into a bare market, right? So yeah that that's something that that uh we also see and you can see that also you know in the spot demand that we will see uh in the next chart uh in in which you see spot demand declining right contracting contracting but still the price doesn't come down to you know the previous let's say floor of the bull market right it stands it stands uh you know higher >> so yeah that's that's something you know uh interesting to see Yeah. And it and it shows the maturing of the market, especially for Bitcoin and Ethereum,

which have different buyers now than they've ever had before. It's not just cryptonatives. And let's jump into the next chart because I think there is an interesting uh question of who is buying and who is selling at various points right now. And there is a lot of people that you you saw when you looked at your data taking profits in this recent correction. talk us through what you saw on the on the selling side here. >> Yeah, so actually if you remember the last time that that I was here, we were talking about this kind of like the profit uh pause push um framework, right? In which after a big rally, you see the spikes there, the the the green uh lines there is the profit taking, you

know, how much dollars are being uh taken as as profit by by traders, by investors. And then you see like a declines again and then there's a pause in which basically you know nothing's happened not much profit taking. Um then you know the if you go to the red uh lines there it means like price is now um declining has declined so much that people are realizing now losses right so back in July August we had this the the latest profit taking event I would say when we got to you know 120 for the first time. Yeah, you see the the spikes there, right? And then Exactly. Yeah, there. And then we had to this pause uh

period, you know, August, September, and and then we were we started Q4 with really low levels of profit taking and and you know, not not just because of that, but because of other indicators, we were expecting the, you know, the rally in Q4, right? And we actually started like that that that way. But then you know in October you see there in the first few days of October and then the October 10 also again a spike in profit taking right from from investors uh above three billion uh which is you know above that uh for the cycle is you know you can consider that is a high high level of profit taking uh so that happened again. So that's why we see I mean not not only the because of

the macro events and and then the liquidations but before that we were starting to see some high profit taking uh as we as we uh got to the previous alltime high you know around 124 126. Uh so yeah there there was that you know not just in the futures market but this is you know this is spot this is actually people um selling their their their or transferring their their spot bitcoin right so we also see see that >> and and this profit taking was happening before the the the Trump China trade war it erupted again

before Trump put out that that post on truth social. So what this says, let's go to the next chart because I think there's an interesting story here which we said in the beginning which is yeah the >> the trade war might have been the catalyst but there was already a setup for a dip or a correction to come. What are you seeing? What what is what data is showing you that? How are you seeing this on your end? >> Yes. So for for example this is the um our pool score index uh which uh summarizes 10 u onchain data uh metrics that we follow. And so you know we were actually you know in the in the green

area is when this indicator uh is signaling like a bullish conditions right and and and in in that in that period we got to the all-time high. Uh but it started actually to decrease before the liquidation. Um it started to go to you know from 80 there uh to the last the last peak is 80 and then it dropped it to 40 as as this you know indicators were um already signaling some some some um you know some overheating right when we got to the previous all-time high. Uh it was spot demand contracting. One of those was spot demand contracting. Then other

indicators were momentum indicators for price in which they signal that um you know the the speed at which price is increasing is is slowing down actually right and and then starts to to decline. So it was mostly you know the man and the momentum uh that got us to to from that indicator from 80 to 40 for so 40 or below is bearish conditions and actually it was 40 on I think it hit on October 6 when it hit that. So a few a few days you know um before we had this this announcement and this liquidation event and then after the liquidation event it took us to 20 um which is where

the indicator is right now that's what I why I say that you know the data is is on the bearish side right now after after that. >> Yeah it really it really shows you how much looking at the onchain data can be so effective. It's why I talked at the beginning of the show of this new research hub that Milk Road has launched is it's all about looking at onchain data and what you guys are so great at at cryptocoin as well in order to see these signals. Now I think had the trade war not ignited I don't know that we might have seen a bit of a dip but not nearly the dip that we did see and not nearly the deleveraging. Let's keep

going with how we got here and and where we are right now. What are you seeing on the demand side? >> Yeah. And actually just uh just a comment after you said that about onchain data and the metrics is that the way I see it is I mean it's not going to predict the price right uh it's not made for that but it's going to signal to you the risks you know if there are risks increasing if if we are getting to a point in which there's there could be like a correction coming uh that's that's how I mostly see like the onchain data and and and you know basically any indicator that it's like okay now maybe

they're telling me that the probability of a correction or the probability of a of a dip is higher right and so when when all these metrics that we see that we uh follow start to um converge into telling you there's increasing risks then it's when you have to be more you know more careful right so that's the yeah exactly as you say it like that's exactly the the framework in which I I I do the analysis uh with with this all these onchain metrics >> which just helps set your expectations.

It doesn't mean that you should trade around these onchain metrics, especially not with Bitcoin. You know, I hope everybody here is just continually DCAing in and just stacking because we all believe in the secular trend and the long term of this investment. But it's always nice when your expectations are aligned with a possibility and a probability so that when something like this happens, when there is a flush out or there is a deleveraging or some macro event shakes our market, you're not surprised. You're you're sitting there saying, you know, you're sitting there chill, right? Saying, "Ah, yeah. Okay, not totally surprised this happened.

Obviously, it's unfortunate." Now, there is a question about does this a deleveraging like this can often set us up very well for the next leg up? And we're going to get to that in a second. But before we get there, let's talk about what you're seeing on the spot demand side. Do people want Bitcoin right now or are we are we going into a bit of a contraction? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, uh this is Yeah. Exactly. Spot demand. This is our you know best estimate of how spot demand for Bitcoin is behaving. Uh it's growing or is it contracting right? So you can see that right now um the red bars signal that we are in a correction uh in

a contraction of of spot demand. You see that right now it's not as not as high as u we that we experienced in in between March and and and May uh of this year. Nowhere close to nowhere close to that. >> Yeah, exactly. and and in that period it was >> it was triggered by you know the same trade talk and tariffs that was when when Trump started >> to put all these tariffs on different countries right um and so at that time it was uh really people didn't know what to expect right uh now as you say uh as you said in the at the beginning we kind of know like how's the you know

negotiations start right like you said with you know with the with the hardest uh stand first, right? Mhm. >> So, so yeah, but demand is spot demand is not contracting as much as you know earlier this year in in during Q Q1 end of Q1 start of Q2 right so but still we're seeing that this contracting and actually when when it starts to contract like like I said it's u it's around October October six that it it switched from being um growing to to contracting that's uh so right now it's it's a little bit of a you know slow demand for for Bitcoin on on spot uh contracting a

little bit. So that's why you won't see um typically like u big rebound or a big um you know >> going to all-time highs right away if the man does it hasn't come back. So we need to wait for that uh as you know as the macro clears up and then all these um investors or traders start to position themselves again right uh so so for for now it's just uh you know waiting for for that to happen >> and isn't that so interesting that spot demand started to contract before the trade war reignited and that catalyst happened. it it comes back.

That's why your bull bull market score index showed that the bull market was not did not have as high of a score. It started to contract because we were getting up to all-time highs. We were in a it it just it's that it's that everybody knows this, but it's not up only. Nothing is up only. it is always going to be up with the bumps along the way and the wave along the way that we need to understand. Now, one one question I have for you here is a lot of people have been talking about um the difference between two major investors within Bitcoin are the

institutions are now a major investor that we've have not had in past cycles. And then we have a lot of crypto whales, a lot of Bitcoin whales, the the early OGs who have held a lot of Bitcoin from the beginning. And it seems to be that the institutions are they're not selling not not nearly as much. It's the crypto whales that are more the the OGs. They're the ones that are selling and exiting during this seem to be exiting during this cycle especially once we got above 100K. Is that what you're seeing as well?

>> Yes. And actually, you know, for the, you know, the OG whales or the earlier earlier Bitcoin investors or holders, it it's something that we always see in in the cycles that has always happened. That's how Bitcoin gets, you know, revalued. you know, some OG whale that has, you know, uh, tens of thousands of Bitcoin because he bought it really low or he was mining, you know, was an early minor. We also track this. It's really interesting to track the the early miners. Uh, they hold a lot, you know, as a as a group. They hold like 6K 600K Bitcoin um, excluding Satoshi. So

they're like a big big uh u group of holders. But when when we got this bull run, they start to sell. But it's it's normal. I mean, it's normal because that that's how Bitcoin gets redistribute, you know, to the new um new investors, new people that are entering uh to to holding Bitcoin. And you know as long as they are selling but there's demand for that you know for to absorb that the bull run continues. It's when the demand dries up when then we see like uh the you know the bare the bare markets and and to your point that institutions it's

it's what is different this cycle we see that in actually in the cohort of of addresses not not the whales per se. which are typically defined as someone or an address holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins like the whales is actually the cohort that holds between 100 and 1,000 because for example the ETFs they hold their bitcoin in addresses that you know they don't have more than uh 1,000 bitcoin so they they hold it mostly between 300 600 bitcoin I I guess for security purposes um so that cohort of of of balance of addresses uh is still buying actually we we we will uh I

didn't show show it here in the slide but it's still growing like you said is there's there's the institutions that don't actually doesn't don't sell or don't panic as you know as as most of the short-term traders right uh so as long as that continues uh then we're can say we're still in a in a bull market of course during the bull market they can be buying but you know the the pace is what what uh changes right sometimes it's faster sometimes is slower uh sometimes it's near to zero uh so that's that's what's what that is what causes you know this these fluctuations during during a bull market uh so yeah that's

that's correct >> which which to me says that it's it's not all it's not all doom and gloom uh you know there's There is there is some positive setup happening right now and you know I'm going to oversimplify this but when I look at it what I see is there is a large rotation happening in this cycle of Bitcoin ancient wallets old wallets cycling out and new new new investors cycling in mostly led by the ETF and by institutions and those new in what that To me, there's an end to that. That can't go forever. And that if we reach

an end and we're still in the bull market, then I can see the opportunity where everybody what everybody wants, which is Bitcoin to 200, 200 plus as actually being a possibility if we still have this institutional demand and we get to the end of those ancient wallets looking to exit. And I just feel like I feel like we're getting closer to that. Why do people invest in real estate? Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties.

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I mean we have had you know some alcon season along um along the way in this bull market but it hasn't been like general for every every coin. uh it's more like selective sectors and then with recently we had the like the Ethereum season right from like May to maybe September um a really a really big rally of Ethereum even against Bitcoin it it outperformed um so yeah but what in general for altcoins uh you know you can see there that this the spike there like that that big spike in transactions that's the number of transactions of altcoins going into exchanges and and it really starts

to spike uh after the or during uh the the big liquidation event that we had. So yeah, I think that you know that shows that um there's a much less liquidity for for for altcoins on exchanges, right? So a movement like that is going to is going to have this these effects as we see there that a lot of people just want one out. That's what is uh telling you that that even a you know um small not a small it was a big event but like a macro uh short-term event has this these effects on on all coins. Um so so yeah we we got this um

number of transactions. this was a few days ago uh hit uh the highest uh so far this year for altcoins. So yeah, it's a it's it's a different story there. Uh definitely that for for Bitcoin, they tend to go, you know, correlated when everything's increasing. But now I think that for altcoins is some like a more selective cycle for altcoins like uh in past cycles everything that went up like it didn't uh it didn't um take you take you so much to you know you didn't have to choose like the right altcoin everything was going up but right now I think that is more you have

to do a more more analysis on that uh and that this shows just how how easily you know, people just sell uh the the altcoins right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Which is that's a theme we've been talking about for for over over a year now uh since since the early days of this bull cycle is is exactly that there is there will never be an alt season like there was in the past again. mainly because we're just a bigger asset class and as we I mean it shouldn't we're still a small asset class reg relative to a lot of the other asset classes out there but we're not what we were in past cycles where we were small enough that everything went to the moon

all at the same time. Now, yeah, you have to pay attention more and do more research and be, >> you know, more active in terms of understanding the thesis behind your different trades and your different investments and having conviction within that thesis in that current point in the market. Uh, because it's not going to be everything go up all at once. Let me ask you this before we actually let's let's let's jump into some positive fundamentals and then I'll I'll ask >> just one comment about altcoins is that you know even if the the project or you know the the protocol uh is doing well doesn't necessarily mean that the token

is going to do well right that's something that I think I I saw this chart I think that this was the uh of a DEX which is you know the largest spot decks. you know, the token is basically at the levels of of the at the lows of the last cycle, but the the project is doing really well. is growing uh generating a lot of activity and fees but I think that the what maybe uh people understood is that there's not a like a direct transfer between how well the the application or the project or the protocol is doing and you know the performance of the token there's there's

still like not a direct link there uh and that I think that that's something that we have seen in this cycle more than previous cycles in which just just the you know there's more fees in this protocol and then the token also was uh you know performing pretty well. uh I don't think that there's that's the case anymore as long as there's not like direct link between what it what that protocol is generating and then the token holders, right? I think the question is does that continue is the is the one is the question I'm not sure about because what what feels obvious to me is that there is going to be a a revenue meta which I mean that's like using putting two words

together that don't necessarily mean anything but there's going to be a point in this cycle I believe and the Milk Road team believes when the projects that make revenue and are sustainable and have real business and real product market fit that they will get the narrative and those projects will do well. And I'm mainly talking about DeFi projects really like L1 blockchains and DeFi projects like those are those are the ones that fit within that category. And that just feels obvious to me, but I think you're you you nailed it when you said it's it's not always the case. At least not in this cycle. Certainly hasn't been the case. So again, it just proves you need to be you got to sharpen your tool, your saw, and be be active

and be paying attention. Not necessarily like meaning you're making moves and trading every day, but paying attention to what is happening behind the scenes on chain, which is why we love having you on the show, Julio. Okay. Give us some give us some positive vibes here. Give us some positive. >> Yeah. Some of the other metrics that we also track on this, it's the liquidity really important. if there's more liquidity entering. So we track this with the um stable coin market cap. Uh in this case to the left is is the USDT market cap but but the the change so the growth um and that's actually been expanding and above above trend. Uh so even uh as we had the this uh correction

uh stable coins still are expanding. So liquidity is coming in uh at you know a really good pace I would say. Um so so that's a positive. Uh typically you know you won't see this like stable coid expanding if we are you know in a in a bare market. So that's that's one one thing. The other thing is that um how whales are accumulating, you know, how fast um and to the right is is is precisely this like the the total is this a change the the yearly change in their holdings. So uh today from one year ago uh and also as long as this is

you know increasing of course there's there are bumps in in the way but uh right now they actually increase it during this during this uh during during this correction right and and are are all again growing above trend. So that's another another good sign and something to watch like like I said like the whales and also the now that we have the ETFs is the the other cohort uh typically define um named as the dolphins um so also those are expanding also uh in in their in their in their balances in the total holdings uh year-over-year. So that's uh also like a positive as long as they continue to you

know absorb the sellers right it's it's it's a it's a good sign uh when they start you know not just not absorbing but also you know unloading that's when when we can have like a big bigger bigger issues. >> It to me it says that smart money was buying this dip. That's what that's what this says to me. Yes, actually they increased the the the buying when we got from the all-time high and and then started to correction and then this uh leveraging uh event they they actually uh increase their buying. Uh so so that's a good a good sign. I I wanted

to point at that there's still good some good signs there. >> Okay. So big question on everyone's mind and why I'm sure everyone is still listening is what's next? What happens for the rest of the year and let's talk about first what happens the rest of the year and price predictions where you think we're headed next and then we'll talk about when you think the cycle might peak. >> Yeah. So this armor I let's say my um the parameters that I always look for for what to expect with prices or or what would be like a like a real expectation right like um so you know right now we are below the onchain the

traders onchain realized price which is the what typically in a bull market price um you know goes around this this metric like the trader metric uh realized price which is now at 115 um it typically it's it's a a support for prices during a during a bull market we are now below that so that's uh I mean that's a like a bearish sign right but we are still really close so price is at I think it was like 110 right when when we started this conversation uh then the um so So the resistance will be around 115K.

That's the first thing that I would you know be looking at. If price goes above that, if it breaks again to the upside to that price, then we can, you know, start, you know, expecting that that Q4 rally. Uh, and and and to the downside, uh, the downside scenario is it's around like 100K. Uh, which is that that dotted light line that you see in the chart. um that's when traders when when price goes to that level traders are at at a 10% unrealized loss. So in bull markets typically when traders are at an

unrealized loss they start they they finish uh selling they don't sell anymore that's why you see like a bounce in price around that level. So yeah, so to the downside you know the 100k really important level also like a psychological level you know the 100k and then to the upside is first first resistance 115 you know the traders realize price and then after that if we you know if the price really breaks that then the two the two the range that we could expect is 150 195k that's the, you know, the upside uh target uh zone that I see for for for for Bitcoin. if we

manage to, you know, to to break to the upside uh 115. And and you have you you have on this slide you have a couple macro drivers which I I I not to steal your slide but these are things that we we were chatting about on the Milk Roads team this morning in our our research meeting which is that we have we have very bullish setup coming very likely which is the Fed is likely to cut interest rates again at the end of October. They meet October 28th, 29th. And then we have the US tariff, China tariff deadline, plus they I don't know if they'll decide by the deadline on

November 1st or if it might extend a little bit into November, which is when I believe that they're meeting, but there is there is likely an end because neither side wants to continue this. There's likely an end to that. I I mean, look, I don't I can't predict politics, but that feels likely. So it feels to me like plus we had this this wash out and as you said sure okay maybe we're not in the like high range of the bull market but we're still in a bull market. All the indicators still say we're in a bull market. So it feels to me like there should be an opportunity for price to really push to new all-time highs. Q4 is also a great period typically. What's your what's your thesis right now for

Q4? What do you think how do you think it plays out? Yeah, I think that the you know the the US China tariffs and trade negotiation is the you know the big catalyst if we get that you know of the way uh if there's more clarity on that then I guess you know markets will be really really positive that that one is the one that caused this uh or that triggered that trigger this big liquidation and so for me that's what on the micro side that what I will be looking more at uh the Fed of course is is important but I think the market already you know have have um priced you know what the Fed will do like everyone

expects another u rate rate cut um only if like it's a like a bigger cut right that will be like a really positive catalyst but it's not what uh what is expected right uh but the US China tariffs I I think that if we get that out of the way then it can be you know the the really a positive Q4 can resume right because um um you know besides what you know we were a little bit overheated and what onchain metric were telling us this US China you know um negotiation was the event that you know is causing more noise to to the market I guess uh so so

if we get that out of the say uh is there it's a positive Q4 I I would say >> okay the bigger question okay so Q4 positive so long as China trade war settles itself bigger question let's assume that that happens bull market continues when do we peak in this cycle this is the debate of this is the hot debate right now we had Ben Cohen on the show last week he says as peak is in Q4. He's not looking to stay in the market, especially not alts into 2026. We've had multiple guests on the show say that nope, 2026 is going to

be a great year, extended cycle, that we're not going to follow the four-year cycle is dead. It's not it's no longer the four-year cycle. What's your thesis on when this cycle ends, when it peaks? Uh well I mean it's really difficult right to pinpoint that. Uh probably we all are going to be wrong I think. But if I had to you know if I had to look at the data um I would say that of course as the bull progresses and actually you have a good indicator for this one is the bull cycle. I I I have

you know shared that in the previous uh slides but I didn't include it this but what you what you see is that you know this this indicator tells you that the first stages of the bull are the the ones that where price increases the most right and then after that is still bull but it's gonna it's like a diminishing uh bullishness I would say not not necessarily return but the the bullishness that the indicator is measuring. And so actually we we have seen this like less and less bullish and less bullish even as price has increased to previous uh to new alltime highs, but the indicator tells you less bullishness, right? And so right now

it's really actually right now is in a little bit of a bearish period, right? Because most indicators are. But if we see like um the resumption of the of the of this uh bull in the Q4 still I believe that that indicator will will tell you yes we're bullish but there's there's less bullish. So I I will not expect based on that that we go you know um more than the Q1 2026 I would say based on that uh because it's it's it's normal for the cycle to be like it's still increasing still the bull run but it's less intensive in the bullishness

let's say uh according to that that that's why what I will be you know thinking or looking at Okay. So, you think all-time highs in Q1 or you think all-time highs in Q4 and then just still bull cycle? I know these are like look I I understand these are just predictions, but it's always just good to understand somebody's thesis. >> Yeah. No, probably we get uh use China negotiations out of the way, we can see like a a new alltime high. We're not that far actually, you know, from the previous alltime high. So, it wouldn't be that hard for Bitcoin to go to uh new alltime highs this this quarter, right?

Um but yeah, I mean, as for the extended period, you know, based based on this indicator that that I told you, um I would expect like um farther than, you know, Q1 next year. >> Okay. You got you got CryptoQuant, Julio saying Q1. uh we're going to we're going to we're going to give you guys more uh more content on where everyone thinks this cycle is going to end because as I said there is a a large range of opinion on that question right now and as Julio said quite accurately we're all probably going to be wrong which is why you should when you do your research don't just listen to one of us listen to a whole bunch and that's our goal on the

show is to give you guys a whole bunch of perspectives so that you can find where within those perspectives you believe uh and you can have conviction in your own thesis. Julio, great to get you on the show again. Thanks so much for joining us today. >> Yeah, thank you Jay. Thank you for for inviting me again and so hopefully we we got a good Q4. >> Let's hope so. Thanks for tuning in everybody. Have a wicked awesome day. We'll see you back again tomorrow. Onchain betting only lets you bet on one event. Boring. SX bet changes that. Parlay bets boost payouts, no fees straight from your wallet. Go to sx.bet.

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