Mevwatch.info update, Gitcoin and UNICEF team up - The Daily Gwei Refuel #492 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of The Daily gray refuel where we cup the latest news in the ethereum ecosystem I'm your host Tim the designer and today the 22nd of November 2022. all right everyone let's get into it so some new news about uh the whole Genesis Fiasco over the last 24 hours so Frank chaparro from the Block put a tweet out saying sources tell the block crypto trading firm Genesis which has been struggling to raise emergency Capital to shore up its lending units liquidity profile has slashed its raised Target from one billion dollars to 500 million dollars as Bloomberg reported it faces potential bankruptcy without funding uh and then uh Frank follows his tweet up for the quote from Genesis who says we have no plans to file bankruptcy imminently our goal is to resolve the current situation consensually without

the need for any bankruptcy filing Genesis continues to have constructive conversations with creditors so yeah I mean like we it's we're pretty much uh in the know now about kind of what the hole is for Genesis it seems confirmed that there is at least a 500 million hole that they need to fill ASAP and they're obvious trying to raise money to fill that and they've also said themselves that they don't have plans to file for bankruptcy imminently imminently but that doesn't mean that it can't happen in the future and I did say yesterday and maybe even last week that I figured that that this would be unlikely because I I think that Genesis would be able to raise the money that they need maybe not a billion but 500 million it's doable right and not just raise it from outside investors but also

get the money from other gbtc uh GBC uh dcg uh portfolio companies which I think is realistic to be honest and obviously they'd rather not file for bankruptcy they'd rather just get fill this hole learn from their mistakes which it seems their mistakes are the same as everyone else's over the last 18 months was that too much leverage lending to the wrong people getting wrecked on that daisy chain there uh and basically Shoring up their uh their health their whole kind of balance shade here so to me this is positive news to be honest like obviously honestly like I wouldn't even say them filing for bankruptcy would be like the way worst thing ever will be as bad as FTX it would be nowhere near as bad as FTX or or Terra or 3ac I think it would obviously be a another negative mark But

honestly I think as I mentioned yesterday the market seems to be I guess pricing in a lot of this sort of stuff right now that's why we're seeing such weak prices but there are buyers for every seller there is a buyer now it just means you know how many buyers are at the margin here how many buyers are actually not Traders and I'm actually planning to hold it for longer than a few days or a week or something like that that's the million billion dollar question right but when it comes to Genesis it seems they are trying really really hard much harder harder than FTX uh tried to shore up their balance sheet and obviously with FTX it was basically a um it was basically a very uh a Fool's errand right because the fact of the matter is that Genesis as a company has

probably run a lot better than FTX I mean it's very hard to run a company as bad as f as FTX was run so there are a lot of different things to to consider here and I know I keep seeing these threads about uh gray grayscale which is another dcg perform polio company needing to dissolve the gbtc and eth trusts in order to pay uh you know to show up their balance sheet here in order to fill this hole I honestly don't think that's going to happen for so many different reasons but like I saw a thread that someone saying that it's more likely that they're going to sell the BTC that's held by gbtc instead of being able to raise this 500 million on their own that's just stupid to me and they were saying that they will dissolve the whole trust because I think you have

to dissolve the whole thing I don't think you can just sell partial amounts of it maybe I'm wrong on that front and I was thinking to myself no no that that thing's too much of a of a money machine that would definitely put way too much pressure on the market and the contagion from that would be massive because as I've mentioned before there's a ton of BTC in there I think there's like 600 000 BTC in there now imagine 600 000 BTC hitting the market even if it's done over time that would be a huge net negative here and that would affect not just uh uh uh The Wider Market but also a dcg and all their polio companies and Genesis and everyone so they're obviously going to avoid that as much as possible and it might not even be possible to dissolve it uh because of

this I don't know the exact workings of the products themselves but they are some of the most heavily regulated products in the world those things uh so it's not going to be just as easy as oh we'll kind of shut the shut the product down take the BTC sell it all in the market and then use that money to shore up genesis's balance sheet I think that the more likely outcome is definitely than plugging this hole with outside investment and honestly 500 million in the scheme of things right now in the grand scheme of the crypto ecosystem is really not that much I mean CZ through 500 million at Twitter right uh and I guess like doing that was probably not a great decision I don't I don't know like maybe it is long term but to be honest I don't think Twitter was worth what Elon

paid for it but that's a different discussion so someone like you know CZ and a bunch of other I guess a big name people in the ecosystem could fill this hole like I'm pretty confident in that but that's not to say that there is a zero percent chance of Genesis going bankrupt or filing for bankruptcy and there's a zero percent chance of the grayscale products being dissolved but I I think there's a very low chance um I don't think this is uh like the FTX situation it's just the it seems to be the last bit of contagion that we just didn't know about uh there is something about the silvergate bank which handles a lot of crypto stuff uh I haven't heard too much about that besides rumors like I haven't been able to confirm stuff there but I think it kind of feels like

we're at the tail end of this contagion and the funny thing is this all started with Terror like if you really map it all out this this started with Terror it started with uh uh three uh Terror then went to three AC and then FTX obviously but FTX I mean had their own problems for a long time that they managed to hide but in terms of this daisy chain of of Leverage it really seems to evolved uh spun out from Terror and then once Terror collapsed no one obviously wanted to show that they were in a really bad position but if you were paying enough attention and you knew how these things played out and you you knew there could be made some deep contagion here you probably saw this and as I said I I feel like this is the tail end as I've been

saying over the past few weeks can prices go lower of course they can and they have been going lower right I mean Heath is on the brink of going back to Triple digits who knows if that's going to happen or not like I've got no idea but just based on sentiment based on everything we've seen play out this year based on the fact that when the the New Year ticks over it tends to be pretty positive for for crypto generally I think that I don't know if if Now isn't the bottom or near the bottom like I don't know where is just that's that's how and any of my all my intuitions are are wrong here but that's kind of what I'm I'm feeling right now and I I take in a lot of inputs when looking at these sorts of things I don't just look at

something and and be like okay well you know this person's saying the bottoms in so I'm going to believe them I've learned over my years that literally no one ever really knows they have relative confidence compared to other people obviously someone new to this ecosystem is going to know a lot less than uh someone who's been around for a while but no one knows for sure and I think that should be obvious considering that we can't tell the future but there are lots of inputs that you can take in you can process them you can add your own context to it and you can give a I guess like a probability to each of the each of the outcomes here and then you can make a decision based on that for me personally I like and then unless you actually well I mean it depends on the

type of person you are unless you believe that the Market's going to Nuke 50 from here I don't think the risk reward of of waiting if you want to buy is worth it and that's not investment advice but that's just how I look at things where I kind of look at eth right now and I'm like do I think it is going to five six hundred six hundred dollars I personally don't but can it go there sure right but am I willing to take the risk of not buying The Ether I want to buy now wait for this mythical you know 500 600 eth and then it goes back to 2K and never goes down there like that's the way I look at things but I'm a long-term investor I'm obviously very biased as well because I'm very bullish on ethereum and eth and I'm bullish over

a longer period of time like 5 10 20 years sort of thing I'm not doing this to be like okay well I'll buy now and then in a year you know it's going to be back at all time high and I'll cash you out then no and I you guys know I'm never selling my eighth anyway but it's just the kind of way I look at it where I'm like I'm comfortable putting putting money in here now as I said that's not investment advice don't just listen to me just explain that listening to one person is never a good thing doesn't matter how legitimate they they sound or seem or how how much they make sense but that's the way I'm looking at things and there could always be another Black Swan that hits the market that we haven't considered right and then I think that

the FTX insolvency was a definitely a Black Swan that people hadn't considered again and I remember having a conversation Discord saying that I I felt like the bottom that Eve had set in the triple digits was was the bottom unless we had another Black Swan like event which is what FTX was and we still haven't gone back to Triple digits who knows if that's gonna happen or not uh but yeah as I talked about yesterday as well it seems that a lot of um the ecosystem has turned to apathy instead of fear right now but there are pop pockets of fee I think the only fear that I I think is left is really fear of the what's true and what's not in the rumor mill because there has been a rumor for pretty much every shitty scenario that you can imagine and in the

face of all that noise it's very hard to get signal from that and I remember a few months ago people were talking about how coinbase was insolvent and no one was talking about FTX being insolvent insolvent or even a risk of them being insolvent and obviously the people talking about coinbase got it completely and utterly wrong they're a publicly traded company we can see the assets that they have right and and they've been around for so long and they've survived all this stuff and they're fully regulated in the US there's so many different reasons why it's it's it's improbable for coinbase to actually be insolvent at this point in time uh and then no one was looking at FTX no one was uh was totally calling out FTX there wasn't even rumors circulating about it which is hilarious because people got it completely wrong so when

you're looking at all these rumors being spread uh it's very hard to get any signal from that so I default to just not believing any of them at from at face value and then I pick some of them that seem more credible than others the Genesis thing seems more credible to me than other things and it seems to have played out because you can map that to something right you can map Genesis as a lending desk to the leverage blowout that we saw since Terror collapsed and then you can say well it's more likely than not the Genesis had exposure here that they've been trying to cover for quite a while but you know come push comes to shove it does become public and it does does kind of um go out there especially with the in with the FTX claps which probably made it made it

even worse right so yeah to to end there I think is is a good spot to end because as I said like lots of rumors flying around pick and choose which ones sound more credible than others I know maybe that right now they all sound credible because of the fact that we've had some crazy stuff happening crypto over the last uh a year I guess but you know pick the ones that objectively sound as credible as possible and then do more research into those don't get bogged down and looking at every rumor or believing every rumor just because FTX blew up and no one saw that coming it doesn't mean that every room is going to pan out to be true most of them won't pan out to be true and honestly I'm seeing a lot of Twitter accounts popping up on my feed that I have never seen

before like quite literally never seen before and I spend a lot of time on Twitter I would have seen these accounts before that I've never seen them before and they're talking about all this stuff they're the ones spreading the rumors and I look at that and I'm like okay like a part of me believes that these accounts have literally only been spun up to try and manipulate the market in order to get a better entry for some whale or something I mean you might think that sounds crazy or like a conspiracy theory but I don't think it's too far-fetched it costs nothing to set up a Twitter account it costs nothing to put a thread together especially in times of of or at times like this where there's a lot of uncertainty uh and and get people to retweet you and pay attention to you even if it's just a

pure rumor even if you have no sources at all and we've seen it play out time and time again so if you're a big money player and you want to move the market or attempt to move the market and you think that you can and get a better entry because you think we're near the bottom but you want that last kind of uh you know you want the market push down more or maybe you want people to sell so that you have more liquidity to buy into as well that's another side of it maybe you do that right like I and as I said like it's all about mapping something that seems probable to to evidence that you can that you can kind of corroborate with and to me I don't know it seems obvious to me and it happens in Bull markets as well not just bear markets

people will create fake accounts and create Bots and talk about things as if they're better than what they are um for exit liquidity because big players need that liquidity they can't just market sell ROTC sell a certain amount especially of the more liquid stuff not the BTC and eat stuff but a lot of the other tokens they're very liquid most of their their life their only liquid or or liquid enough for these big players during the the ends of a bull market so there's that side to it as well but anyway without going on about that stuff too much longer uh I think we're gonna have to just wait until maybe tomorrow or the day after to see what's happening with Genesis I think there's a Wednesday deadline and I believe that's us Wednesday so we'll probably have to wait until well have to

wait till uh till Wednesday night for myself not Wednesday morning but maybe I'll be able to cover on the refuel tomorrow uh but yeah I'm gonna leave that one that there's a bunch of other things to get through so Ron Hammond has another great uh regulatory slash uh I guess um uh politics thread out today about how Washington DC is thinking about the FTX Fallout now I'm not going to read the thread out for you it's not that long but obviously too long to read on the refuel I recommend giving it a read the trdr is basically that the DC is taking the FTX fall out very seriously there's a lot of different discussions happening spf's original build that he was backing is pretty much dead but they're they're DC on both sides of of the camp

Democrats and Republicans both feel like the need to act because they're kind of asking questions like how did this slip through the cracks how did all these people uh uh that were supposed to be representatives in in the US fall for this sorts of stuff and cozy up to SPF so there's definitely a lot of eggs on faces right now and that's being worked out uh uh uh as we speak so you definitely gonna give this thread a from Ron a read I'll link it in the YouTube description below all right so labrus has an update out for mevwatch dot info today so they've introduced the ofak censorship offenders leaderboard a simple way to visualize the largest contributors to protocol level censorship on ethereum so you can see here the leaderboard on the mevwatch.info website you and it's currently ordered by uh total blocks

that these entities are producing and then on the right hand side you see the percentage of blocks that is engaging in censorship so over the last day for example Lido has produced 2328 of the blocks which is more than a double or trip pretty much triple the second place which is coinbase but they have censored 75 of those blocks or at least applied the ofak censorship to uh the 75 of the blocks and you can make your way down the list you know you've got coinbase Kraken binance they're all around the same coinbase is a little less at 68 and then steak fish rocker pool stake us blah blah I'm just gonna scroll down and see who the least Defender is Bitcoin Swiss is the least Defender and they're not the smallest uh entity the staking entity either so they're only censoring

seven percent and they have 160 blocks that they produce today which would if sort of buy blocks put them in the number five position uh I I think or number six number six if I'm just eyeing it here I don't know if I can no I can't sort it there but and this data is being uh provided by rated.network which is another website that I've highlighted to you guys but I think this is great I mean obviously it works as a way to socially shame the entities that are engaging in ain't got a mass censorship PR and contributing to that higher level of censorship but you guys know my opinion on this I don't really think that this is something that the social layer can necessarily fix because the incentives are just too strong on the technical layer as I've said before Mev is the reason this that this censorship

is even uh happening and we have to just fix that which we are you know we're working on that everything's happening on that side of things as well but I do think this is valuable for people who care about this stuff deeply right uh whether they be a solo sticker or just putting their eighth into these taking providers to go with the ones that aren't engaging in uh Mass censorship here which is kind of hard to pick from because even the ones that people love even the decentralized ones like rocketpool those 63 of um blocks at that rockable is producing are enforcing the ofak sanctions and this is because there is no I guess uh uh requirement to run a non-censoring relay you can run whatever relayer you want as part of any of these uh and you can go to Raider on Network

and see this I've shown this before on the refuel but basically if I load up the radar.network website you can see in the block space distribution here uh what what it kind of looks like so for later you know they're using 70 flashbots but flashbots isn't the only relay that's that's censoring uh block native is also censoring and that accounts for 4.7 and you have I believe Eden is censoring as well let me have a look quick look here uh yeah either Network you're censoring and blocks route regulated I don't think anyone's really using blocks route regulator because they're using blocks route Max profit which is um an uncensoring relay and you can make your way down the list and the flashbots dominates and that's that's where it's coming from right that's where most of the censorship is is coming from flashbots uh and blocks rat is is second

place which is really nice to see considering that their most of their is in most of their um blocks are being produced by the blocks route Max profit relay which accounts for about 18.4 percent of all Mev boosted blocks uh which is which is great that's been growing over time of course and that's just over the last day measure over the last day of course um but yes it's always obvious that flashbots still dominates you but the reason why Bitcoin Swiss is uh is is not censoring very much is because they're not even using flashbots here they've got 91 or 91.9 uh vanilla blocks uh and the blocks that they're that they're doing through Mev boost they have block native at 1.7 in at 1.8 and blocks you out at 4.6 so they're not they don't seem to be using flashbots at all which

is interesting whether they haven't enabled it or or or for some other reason remains to be seen but that's the current kind of state of play uh there so with the MAV watch website as well I wanted to share one thing so I've been talking about how over time this uh ofat compliance enforcement has been coming down over longer periods of time and you can kind of see that here in the in the chart uh the green obviously is non-ofat compliant the radius of fat compliant and then you can sort here so over the last day uh if you include all blocks 72 have enforced a fair compliance we seem to have kind of topped out around and here but go the last seven days it goes to 75 last 30 days goes to 70 so over longer periods of time it it definitely will fluctuate and the main reason it

fluctuates is because of the relayer profitability so depending on on whatever time it is depending on uh the MEP that's being extracted by different relayers uh there will be different profit opportunities and people will switch which relayer they talk to so it's it's kind of hard to measure it it's always a kind of estimation here but the fact that it seems to have topped out between 70 and 75 percent on uh even the shorter and longer term time frames which is really really cool and you can go you can even saw it by the last five minutes and you see how it drops to 65 but that's very much noise because it's not enough data to draw any conclusion from and as you go just one hour it's still 70 so I think 70 75 is what we've topped out at obviously horrible you know we don't want to be

seeing anything the ideal world is zero percent but when you look at the distribution here most of it's coming from flashbot so the hilarious thing is is that if all this censoring relays were to turn off tomorrow flashbots Eden Network and block native right uh all the validators would go straight to the uncensoring ones and we'd be at pretty much zero percent censorship that's how easy this problem is to fix and I say easy because I mean it seems easy on the surface you just shut down the relays but obviously it's much more complex than that and that's and and someone could just spin up another censoring relayer uh and that will that could get usage and we could be back to square one so shutting down the relay has always been a Band-Aid solution whereas fixing the root cause of the issue through things like PBS and CR lists and other

such things have been the way to to kind of uh permanently fix it or at least fix it for the very long term instead of a Band-Aid fix but cool to see MAV watch.info updated with this leaderboard I think it's very valuable all right some big news out of the git coin ecosystem today so they have said you witnessed the global impact of our quadratic quadratic funds rounds in the past many Global Institute institutions have taken note so we're excited to announce our first ever quadratic funding round on our new grants protocol in collaboration with unicef's office of innovation so gear coin is going out of crypto like they're doing stuff that's not just in crypto they're not just doing Bitcoin grants rounds anymore as quadratic funding they're also doing stuff with UNICEF

which is absolutely awesome to see because public goods and and funding uh public goods initiatives isn't just exclusive to ethereum or crypto it obviously applies to the rest of the world as well and that's what Bitcoin is trying to do with their new Pro grants protocol is allow other institutions and non-crypto institutions to get involved and run their own quadratic funds and matching rounds in order to raise money and fund public goods in the real world whether that be doing stuff with UNICEF or any other organization so very very cool to see this news out of Bitcoin today there is a a blog post or a full announcement post here Linked In the Tweet which I'll link in the YouTube description uh you can go check that out for yourself all right so pseudo Theos has put

together a great thread today where he starts off by saying ethereum's evm has won the war of the smart contract platforms and it's not even close so how do we scale the evm for the next billion users here's all you need to know about the ZK evm thesis and there's a short little uh thread here with um with I guess like an explanation on the ZK evm thesis here uh and then he links to the ZK teams that are working on these things and dkvms to follow of course all the ones that I've spoken about on the refill many times but I really like this threat this little thread because it's just a really great way to quickly explain you know the um the power of ZK VMS but really at the heart of zkvm and the optimistic Roll-Ups that are evm and all the evm forks is the fact that the

evm's dominance just keeps going up it doesn't matter if it's technologically inferior to other Solutions it doesn't matter if people hate it because of that they still have to use it they still have to integrate with it they still have to accept that it exists and it's growing because that's where the development is that's where the money is that's where the growth is and I think that ZK VMS are just going to keep keep catapulting that growth to new heights obviously arbitrum and optimism are helping a lot with it too given that they're both evm compatible and equivalent systems so I think that when you think about it like that the AVM is going to be the winner just like JavaScript was the winner I should say like solidity in the evm just like

JavaScript was the winner in in web 2 even though it was inferior even though people didn't like it and I've explained this before so I won't I won't rehash it again but I think it's always worth reminding people that out of all the ecosystems in crypto the evm dominates completely I mean I think the only non-evm chain that sees any real usage uh is uh Solana and even their usages has completely died in the bear Market as well and it doesn't and it seems like a lot of Solana projects are actually moving over to evm systems such as the polygon POS chain and and probably even layer twos but I'm sure we'll see many announcements as well so when you look at it like that uh yeah the AVM is going to remain dominant for a long time to come I believe

all right so speaking of ZK AVM Sandeep from polygon shared some stats of polygon zkavm testnet so more than 10 000 proofs have already been produced without downtime total transactions over 14 000 address count almost 6 000 uh contract count about 1500 erc20 is deployed 182 ERC 721s which are nfts about 59 and 1 622 self-deployed and proven smart contracts with full evm equivalents and then Sandeep says steady Lads we're getting there so it seems like the ZK VM test net from polygon is making some very good progress here they're getting developers building on there they're getting some Curious users building on it as well or using it I should say as well which is very cool to

see uh and I mean the age of ZK VM will probably be not just I guess a 12 24 month period it's going to be like a five-year Journey but I think in the next 12 18 24 months we're going to see a lot of movement on the ZK AVM front they're all the test Nets are going to be live there's going to be some maintenance live they're probably going to be in beta for quite a while I wouldn't call them full production Ready Main Nets definitely going to be in beta for a while I mean you know arbitrary and optimism have been in beta since they launched and it's been about 18 months since they've launched so definitely being beta for quite a while but that doesn't mean that they can't grow they can't form ecosystems and we're going to see which ones actually

perform and which ones actually will be able to grow as an ecosystem and it's kind of hard to say right now but there are some bets you could be making and I'm not going to give my opinions on this because I don't want people trading on this or or thinking I'm biased 21 team obviously I do have my own biases given I'm more involved in some teams than others but I think that if you look at the the whole ZK VM Suite right now you know you can probably pick any one of them and and and and say that they have a decent chance of being one of the winners now I've said before that I don't think every ZK ABM is going to win and by that I mean win in terms of like adoption I'm not talking about the thing actually working because that's easy to

do relative to adoption right so when it comes to adoption ecosystem growth users developers all that good stuff there's only going to be a handful and this goes for all l2s I believe uh but that doesn't mean there can't be lots and lots of l2s which uh you know may not be the most dominant but are still very valuable like I've talked about the app app chain thesis uh for l2s before I think that's going to be very valuable for and there's going to be certain apps that that accurate a lot of value there if they become like an app chain L2 on on ethereum but in terms of these generalized ecosystems I think there's only going to be a small handful of big Winners and maybe a long tale of smaller winners but the smaller winners will end up over the long term just not not just

surviving they won't be very sustainable so they'll probably shut down and then the the bigger winners will obviously keep growing and growing from there but as I said that's just for the generalized ecosystems in terms of the app specific ecosystems I think there is definitely a very good chance that we see lots and lots of those we could potentially see hundreds if not thousands of those things Blossom and have value for a very I guess like um segments in a very siled ecosystem but still have value there and then obviously people can bridge in and out of that to these other l2s to these generalized things but it's hard to say right now I am bullish on both approaches but I as I said like it there's not going to be like a a ton of winners in the generalized space but there probably will be a big amount of

winners on a relative basis in the app chain uh these in the app chain kind of space there all right so speaking of l2s bartek from l2beat put out a great tweet thread today saying so it seems like a while ago arbitrim has updated its roll-up implementation on layer 1 in a way that dramatically increased its decentralization funny they kind of forgot to inform the public about it let's have a quick look and what he's talking about is the ability for after the seven day uh uh uh uh a period where a validator does not submit new state routes at all in a seven day period uh anyone can become a validator on the arbitrim Chain by calling the remove whitelist after validator AFK method on the uh roll up and it's permissionless this is really really cool because yes

if no one submits a proof to our one ethereum for seven days uh uh uh sorry not a uh not a proof um what did he say here I've lost the word right now uh a new State Route sorry not a not a proof in a seven day period obviously that's really shitty and and not great it means that potentially things could get uh reversed because they're not hard confirmed on ethereum but after the those seven days anyone can become a validator and I'm sure someone would step in to do this and someone would be watching this which is really really cool and as bartek said this makes arbitrim a lot more decentralized so kudos to them for doing this I'm hoping to see this across the uh the whole L2 ecosystem right I'm hoping to see optimism do something similar to this but this is this is really great and it

definitely was a little bit buried here I mean uh jesusion from Arbor trim here said that they opened an issue on I I believe the L2 beat repo but I think bartek uh missed it uh but yeah definitely really cool news here I'll link this thread in the YouTube description for you to go check out all right just a shout out here to Taiko they have put together a uh full video a technical explainer of Taiko protocol given by uh Daniel this is a great way to understand the difference uh different protocol participants and how the ethereum equivalent ZK roll-up runs and then Daniel replied saying you know the talk isn't necessarily well prepared it's meant to be an internal Tech talk but I'm glad people may learn more about Taiko by watching it so don't expect this to be anything formal it's

definitely more of a a kind of casual Tech talk a casual internal Tech talk but still it's great to see that Taiko spun up on your YouTube channel a lot of Education I'm sure will come out of this so definitely go subscribe to them so you can learn all about Tycho and ZK Roll-Ups ZK VMS in general all right to finish off today's episode today I did want to talk a little bit about a tweet that I put out today where I said people fall into the quote unquote this time is different trap in both Bull and Bear markets best to keep this in mind as an investor it will help you make clearer decisions when the time is right now what I meant by this was basically that every time things get crazy in both markets both Bull and Bear markets people would tend to say this

time is different in the bull market people were saying this time is different because they truly believe that we're going into a super cycle right they believe that we were going to go up only that this is a new paradigm that things were going to be amazing that we were going mainstream the mass adoption was just around the corner and of course none of that was true and we all got humbled this year ah obviously um but then the same is true in a bear Market where people were like well uh the interest rates are going out the macro environment's really bad there's an ongoing War right now there's all this Fallout from the the terror collapse all the leverage fall out all this other stuff happening around the ecosystem so this time really is different in this bear Market but do you see how they sound the same as the Bulls

right I I personally say that I I think it sounds very similar not to say that there's not Merit to the points in in both cases I actually think that there's um definitely Merit to to both sides of the coin here but when you start hearing that as kind of like consensus view that's another one of those inputs that I take in that I spoke about at the beginning of the episode uh where basically I look at that I'm like I'm feeling like the Bears are getting real greedy right now and they feel like the ball's at the top of the of the market now balloon bear markets are definitely very different in that in a bull market it's a different emotion right Euphoria it's greed in a bear Market it's it's fear and apathy and things like that but there is definitely a greed in a bear

market and fear in a bull market towards the tail end of a bull market the people in the know the people that have more experience will definitely become very fearful because they'll be like this is crazy right this is like what's going on right now uh you know everything's just pumping indiscriminately there's so much money coming in how is this sustainable and the opposite in in a bear Market is true of people getting greedy where Bears start being like Oh everything's going to zero the world's gonna blow up you know if the fed's gonna keep raising rates uh inflation's really high uh you know I'm going to be able to buy like 100 eighth you know this it's the same thing it's just different points so as I said that's one of the inputs that I take in obviously not investment advice but just something to keep in mind

generally when uh your your positioning positioning yourself as a long-term investor and I really want to emphasize that this is a long term guys this is not day to day week to week month by month or even year to year I'm talking you know long long term I have a decade two decade three decade time Horizon and uh that's that's the kind of stuff that I'm talking about but in the typical crypto Cycles or Market Cycles in general uh they tend to happen every few years um that's that's the kind of way I look at it so for example if you were to buy eth today uh I I wouldn't expect a return on that investment uh for for quite a while honestly uh and I could be completely wrong on that I mean I hope I am obviously but I wouldn't be expecting I'll just buy it today and then in like

six months I'll sell it all and I'll be rich that sort of thing that's that's definitely not going to happen and I think always staying grounded and keeping your head screwed on is the best way to avoid pulling into these traps but on that note I'm going to end it there for today so thank everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to the newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone