Market Radar's macro outlook: is this the start of a new crypto bull cycle?

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milkroach Show, the daily crypto show that still thinks you're big and beautiful, even if your name's not Bill. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Tuesday, July the 8th, and today we're joined by Arty and Gamma, the founders of Market Radar. This is an awesome platform that really gives retail traders access to institutionalgrade systematic trading tools. These guys are full-blown quant trading. uh and we're going to get their input on the macro setup right now. We're going to talk about the big beautiful bill. What's the impact going to be on markets? How's the market and the US economy going to deal with all this debt? We're going to talk about tariffs and trade deals. The

tariff deadline has been pushed back. It was supposed to be tomorrow. Now it's been pushed back to August. We're going to talk about that. Talk about the conflict between Trump and Jay Powell that just seems to continue to go on and what it might mean if we have a shadow Fed chair and so much more. Just an awesome episode. Before we jump in, I got some really exciting news. Not only are RDN Gamma on today's episode, also our new Milk Road Macro podcast host is on today's episode. I'm talking about John Gillan joining us. John is a former VP at Black Rockck and currently also a crypto fund manager at True Capital where he serves as their head of research. He's an expert in all things macro and digital assets. And he's going to be taking over the show for me. We're

going to have a transition period for the next month. We're all still beyond, but eventually John will be your milkroad macro guy. Today's episode is brought to you by Definitive, the leading TR terminal trusted by funds, Dows, and top traders. It's also brought to you by Letin Get Cash without selling your Bitcoin. Without further ado, Arty Gamma, and John, welcome to Milk Road Macro. Thank you for having us. It's good to be here. Yeah, that was great. It's funny when there's four people, nobody knows who to respond first when I ask a generic question like that. So, thanks for filling uh filling the space there, Jents. Really appreciate it. Uh okay, let's start with um I always like to start 30,000 foot view. Uh, and I

know that at the beginning of the year, you guys made some pretty good calls and you saw what maybe a lot of the rest of the market didn't quite see yet in January, which was that Trump was going to go hard on austerity and cutting budget, but that you guys said he would most likely come back on that and change his tune, which obviously the big beautiful bill has shown us that. And then you talked a little bit about the Fed and what you thought they might do as the dollar takes takes it on the chin and where where they they're where they might go with rates. When you look at where we are right now, midway through the year, what's what's standing out to

you in terms of the macro framework and the macro setup right now? So I think the most important part here is that we don't really take a political appro as you were saying with the big beautiful bill. We have our political opinions and we'll certainly discuss them but we don't let that cloud our investment decisions right because the way that we face the markets is more systematic. So basically as the signals come in we react. Now, sometimes there's some noise, like there's no perfect system, but it allows us to kind of take the political bias away from from our positioning and prevent us from putting ourselves in a position where you kind of lose lose sight of the investment thesis because maybe you're gung-ho

because it's golden bull run or you think maybe that this sector is going to do really well for whatever political reasons because it's in the big beautiful bill, etc. Right? So what we do is we take we take a step back and we approach markets from a risk um a risk perspective either risk on slowdown or risk off. And a good way to uh break this down would be our macro regime chart here which is what we which is updated daily. It's on our website. Um it's interactive. It feeds our it basically as an output of our signals and you can watch how this progresses day-to-day and get a real-time gauge as to where we are in the risk spectrum. So what this basically means is risk on is

where growth impulses are positive. Slowdown is a in an environment where growth impulses are negative but they're not necessarily in a a terrible area. It's more so chop in the markets. Expect uh consolidation. Don't really expect raging breakouts and don't really expect, you know, um just consistent bull runs. And then on the bottom, when you're outside of the slowdown barrier, it's risk off. And that's where things kind of get pretty nasty in the markets. So, our call for the beginning of the year was pretty simple. Christmas Eve of last year, we left risk off. We have yet to be in risk off since 2024, but it looks like uh excuse me, we left risk on

and we went to risk off. We've yet to be in risk on since 2024 and it looks like risk on is coming back. So the big change there was us leaving risk on at the end of last year and we pretty much were able to kind of see that the the growth impulses were losing strength and therefore the outlook was more to the down had more downside risk than it would in a risk-on environment which allowed us to become more defensive and essentially just walk back a lot of the bullish outlooks that we had going into the end of last year. When you look at the rest of this year, what's your outlook right now? Do you think that we

will go back to the risk category? It's interesting you're so your systematic view and your quantbased view in trading I I really like because so many of the guests that we take on the show are they have obviously a lot of quant behind them, but they also are gut and feel a lot of the time, right? Well, there yeah, there's nothing wrong with the gut and feel approach because like a good here's a good example, right? If the market falls 30% in a riskoff environment, the odds of you being in a more lucrative position buying stock with the market down 30% is exponentially higher than at all-time highs, right? In terms of you making money, right? you're you're the upside is just there baked in because

you're basically betting that the stock market will print another all-time high again. But from a systematic perspective, the way that we approach the markets, our positions are leveraged 3x, right? We use 3x leveraged ETFs in our models and for us taking 50 60 70% draw downs in these leverage ETFs is not part of the game. You it's first off, it's extremely uncomfortable, right? And like I mean I'm sure some of your listeners would understand this is that's like altcoin um territory level volatility, right? And when we have a large amount of our net worth tied up in these leverage ETFs, we need to be tactical to the point where you know you don't want to get caught up in unnecessary chop. Like draw downs will happen. They're part of the game, but

you don't want to be in a position that you could have avoided. And I think that the systematic approach kind of takes out a lot of the the guesswork for us. But the discretionary side, there is still a lot of alpha to be had, right? U top a lot of top hedge funds are not systematic. They're discretionary and they can do well. So it's not just something that you know one sizefits-all. It's again down to how you want to approach the markets. But back to your question about what we think the market's going to really do here for the rest of the year. I think it comes down to one specific thing and it's really like as non-political as you want to get. I think the market's been somewhat politicized to the to to a a very

extreme degree the last year and a half like you know last administration there was the IRA it was pretty straightforward people were talking about government job manipulation etc etc there was a whole narrative behind that but in this administration there's it's hard to get a footing because things are constantly shifting and the way that things are breaking the the way the headlines are breaking are almost as if there is no actual the market has a has a hard time finding the directionality behind these headlines. It's not like we're doing these headlines in this order to reach this goal. It's almost like we're we're on the sporadic path of just every day could be a different headline. And I think that that's that's probably the

biggest problem in the market right now and it's probably going to be a hurdle for some time given, you know, just today we had the 50% copper tariffs come through and some more tariffs that are likely to be announced soon. And these are just things that are coming kind of left field and the market does not like uncertainty. So you see the uncertainty continuing in I mean I I think you have to ask yourself this with every president's unique with the current administration do you think there is a level of certainty and do you think that's going to be p there's going to be a level of persistent certainty or is it more of just you know we move the goalpost on a daily basis and again not being political just how the the headlines are

falling it's doesn't really matter who's in office if the last administration did the same thing I would say the same It's just a matter of how headlines are coming out and the way that they're just spontaneously, you know, we're we're deciding things on basically it seems like on the back of an envelope and the market is trying to figure out exactly where, you know, it should be shaken out to. And I think that's probably the big uncertainty and then backing all that was the big beautiful bill how that basically came into play here. It's starting to feel and again this we're separating our feelings from our signals. Whatever our models do, we're going to do no matter what we feel. But it's starting to feel like the tariff walk back in April was somewhat of a factor towards getting the bill through.

It almost feels like the the way that everything was walked back and it's just suddenly magically coming back to fruition, you know, coming back on the table here to be debated for these the uh tariff headlines right after the bill passes and it was walked back into the entire into the voting process. almost feels like the market was down too much for at least the administration's um acceptance going into a vote and they wanted the market higher for the vote. That's what it feels like. Yeah, I can I can resonate with that feeling for sure. Uh okay, let's let's talk about some of the some things that you've mentioned here. Let's talk about the big beautiful bill because okay while we might not have certainty from the administration in terms of what

they're going to do dayto-day we do have certainty in that the big beautiful bill has passed through the congress and so now the question is what's the impact of that going to be how are markets going to react let's talk about what's your when you look at the big beautiful bill how do you think that it's going to play out in markets over the short to medium term The big beautiful bill overall is pretty much stimulatory, right? It's it's a net positive for for markets growth, however you want to see it. Now, you can argue that there is some hidden risk within the bill around immigration, right? Mass deportation, you can argue that it maybe skews the workforce, right? And you

could say it enhances it. Some would say it enhances it. Some would say that you're opening risk for for negative growth shocks due to labor shortages and whatnot. But that's an entirely different debate. Overall, the bill is net net stimulate to the economy. Now, I think that what's going on here is pretty simple in terms of directionality, right? So, the big beautiful bill is going to stimulate the economy and the problem here is going to be the deficit, right? So, the deficit is going to widen, right? And the deficit is going to go up, basically rise. And in in that what's going to happen is the Fed is in a position where the economy is essentially this big beautiful bill. The level of stimulus

that's coming out of the bill, we don't necessarily need that, right? You know, you would cut you do something like cut taxes or widen the deficit if the economy is running under its economic potential essentially borderline recession. you're afraid that you're going to deviate too far from the capac meeting the capacity in the economy. That's when you really want to run a deficit. But we're above capacity right now. And the issue here is that the Fed's been at four, you know, over 4% for two for two plus years. And inflation is only moderately falling at this point. We are not it's not like inflation is falling like a rock. And it has nothing to do with tariffs. It has

more to do with the fact that we are running extremely hot fiscal deficits in an environment that doesn't warrant it and then we're asking the Fed to basically pancake the curve and fuel the deficit even more. And I think that that's the uncertainty here that's going to be, you know, moving the markets in terms of policy path of the Fed. But in terms of the big beautiful bill itself, it should send the market. It should be it should act as a net stimulus for the market as long as inflation doesn't de detach or deank or unanchor and run higher and force the Fed to basically hike rates.

Let's let's talk about uh the timing of these two things because you mentioned two things there that are so key to understand is like one is okay net stimulus as a result of this bill. would love to hear what your thoughts are on like when the markets will start to feel that stimulus and when that might come. And then the other is the more longer term is the impact of this of this debt and how the US economy is going to deal with a growing deficit and do we need to brace ourselves for this at some point? Like can we can we get a recession at some point? Is it even possible to get a recession anymore? It certainly feels like you're you're asking a million dollar question right there. Honestly, you're a big one. We've been asking that too.

Like, is it even possible at a 6% deficit? Um, but according to our system, the growth index has just been rising for the last few months like pretty well, like very strong rise in growth. And I think that's partially due to the expectation of the big beautiful bill and the stimulus that it's going to be providing. So I think we are already seeing that getting priced into the market but obviously it's not fully priced in. Uh there's no way to fully price it in just yet but it is something that we have been seeing and I do expect continuation from here.

Yeah. And I think the big the big factor here with the big beautiful with the stimulus and whatnot is going to be essentially how you feed the economy. Right? So if the deficit rises and it's because the Fed isn't necessarily you I should say this if if in if if rates are rising to combat inflation it's a lot different than rates rising because of fiscal instability right because if rates are rising because the Fed's hiking rates that's a completely different outcome than the rates rising because the Fed is basically deankering inflation expectations and letting the dollar go

to to hell. So growth looking good. We you think we I what I'm hearing is you think we we in your models we might be heading toward to towards risk on soon. Is that is that accurate? Yeah, pretty much like we we don't frontr run our system. That's the thing. We we really have to stick to it. But yeah, we are pretty much on the precipice of going risk on. And it's not like we're coming from full-blown riskoff like we've been in a slowdown this whole time which just it doesn't mean markets can't go up in a slowdown. It just means there you have to be a bit defensive because the market could just get blindsided by something like the the odds are just in the favor

of that when you're in a slowdown. It doesn't mean it's going to happen but it can. So it's better to play defensive especially when you're using triple leverage like what we do. But yeah, we are on the verge of going risk on and as soon as that that switches, we're going full-blown into risk assets. In traditional finance, whales use the Bloomberg terminal. In crypto, they use Definitive, the trading terminal built by Coinbase alumni, which lets you trade across every major chain out there. Definitive's combination of low fees and advanced order types like limit, stop-loss, and take profit make it one of the best onchain trading experiences there is. The kicker, Milk Road listeners trade free on their first

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Okay. very uh I like I like the bullish sentiment coming out of uh you guys as as as you're also so reserved and capable of sticking to your your mandate which is very impressive and I think something you know honestly something that all investors could learn from is just you know really being disciplined throughout your trades and through your investments. Um, okay. I want to I want to shift slightly here to talking about tariffs and trade deals because that's the other big factor right now that's coming out of this administration that is impacting markets that we're all trying to figure out and all trying to deal with. So, basically where we're at is we had liberation day, huge impact on markets.

Do you think that that could happen again with tariffs or has the market priced in tariffs enough that we won't have another maj major scare as a result of tariffs? Well, I think the tariff issue is obviously quite dynamic, right? Because it really depends on the level at which tariffs come in. So, you know, if it's more of the same as what we were seeing where, you know, where letters are getting sent out daily and it's the market doesn't seem too spooked, but I think if you start really walking back a lot of the progress that was made since the liberation the post liberation day lows, the market's going to probably have a hard time.

I think also there's a bit of credibility that's been lost throughout all of this. I think the market is kind of realizing, okay, like Trump goes in hard with tariffs and then he walks them back. Uh, so I don't think we're going to get the same level of scare obviously unless he pulls out another one of those poster boards with just ridiculous tariffs, but I don't think that's going to happen again. Yeah, that's a good take that it's un I think everybody sees the the playbook now and as a result of that is less less reactive to the playbook. Uh unless like you said there's some big big show and tell moment which uh I wouldn't put that past Trump at all.

Yeah honestly. Okay. So, so when we when we look at tariffs, like the thing that stands out to me is the the the the constant change that just keeps happening around the deadline of these and as you know, Gamma you said it keeps letters keep going out of you know Trump saying get off your ass and let's make a deal and uh it just I'm not sure what to pay attention to within the tariff mania. like is there anything to pay attention to in your view?

I I think that ultimately this comes down to a very simplistic take. Trump it's very it's very clear that Trump's not going to let the markets go too far. You know what I'm you know what I mean? Like NASDAQ down 20% was probably a good you know 400 on the NASDAQ was the floor basically on QQQ on the last tariff route. And I don't think like Trump would even let the market go down to 400 again on the cues, right? Like he it's this is a game, right, where how far can he get without destroying the market. And I think that's the game that's being played. Now, in terms of how that kind of plays out, I think that risk we're on the precipice of risk on, right? Because the caveat to all of this, and we've

been so this has sounded somewhat bearish up up until this point, but the caveat to all this is, you know, as Arty just said, you've shaken out a lot of this uncertainty to the fact where there's a loss of credibility. Like, is there actually going to be um a persistent tariff plan that's put in place that's going to go the extra mile? it's not going to be walked back last minute, extended or, you know, back room a back room deal that's made and or cut. Like that's the real question here. And it on the bullish side of things, you kind of got you kind of saw a lot of the tariff shocks washed out of the system, washed out of the market, right? Like we saw the the the huge negative impulse

there from when tariffs came out with the poster board. And unless he kind of one-ups that, it's hard to say that he's going to basically top out the market and send it lower. And with the big beautiful bill passing, net stimulus, debt ceiling being raised, ultimately at this juncture, he's going to have to probably put another bill through of some sort before his his term is done, right? And that the stimulus is likely going to just keep on coming. So, this goes back to what I was saying earlier. It really depends on what is driving up interest rates because a lot of people are looking at, you know, for example, the 30-year interest rate and we're above the Trump inauguration level. 30 years popping, but equity markets are

okay. And there's a difference between interest rates rising due to term premium and basically fear of getting debased, right? real yields going up, turn premium going up, volatility risk is would drive term premium higher as well. And there there's a difference between that and then the benchmark rate going up where essentially it's due to just the Fed hiking interest rates, right? Because if rates are rising on the idea that the Fed is going to lose have a risk to its independence, therefore bonds just inherently become riskier without the Fed having to move policy. What that means is you have you can call it like a heightened debasement

risk, right? And if that debasement risk is heightened, equities won't actually get hit on on yields going up because if you look at it from a traditional perspective, rates rising are and and them hurting equities basically is a sign of higher funding rates and higher benchmark risk-free rates. But if the rates are rising because they're no longer as or as deemable or as risk-free as they eventually were, then what that basically means is equities don't necessarily lose some spotlight there. They they are still competitive and they can still perform with rates rising.

Whereas if it when we saw in 2022 when the Fed was jacking up rates aggressively, what they were doing is they were lifting that risk-free benchmark rate up so high and with it the market was feeling pain because it was flowing into all the companies that are leverage or rely on that risk-free rate. Whereas if you do it the other way around where rates are rising because there's a debasement fee or there's a term premium fear, it doesn't work the same way for equity. So that's why when you look at rates, you can't just say, "Oh, rates up, it's bad for stocks.

Rates down, it's good for stocks." Because it really depends what's driving the move in interest rates. Yeah. And actually, that increase in risk through treasuries could possibly even bring more capital flows into equities because that risk difference starts to shrink, right? So I want to kind of drill in a little bit more on this conflict around interest rates. We have two sitting governors of the Fed board who are openly dissenting with Pal's choice to not cut rates and they're calling for rate cuts. The sitting president and vice president are openly almost bullying the the Fed chairman, right?

Calling him stupid to the media. Who's going to win this tugof-war? And why are both sides fighting so much over this at this key point in the in the in the where we are in the markets right now? Well, as if you're invested in US equities, you want the Fed to win the war. You do not want the Fed to lose the word to the point where they become a third, you know, an arm of the president's office. That's the last thing you want. Um, anyone that owns US denominated assets would certainly not want that. Now, there's obviously a big there's a there's a big hurdle here to understand because when you have the the Fed board or individuals at the board dissenting, the the degree at which they're dissenting and what they're

calling for matters a lot because if you look at it, the Fed dots are already indicating as per June that the Fed is going to cut rates this year. It's already in the Fed basically is telling you they expect to cut rates in 2025. So rate cuts are coming and the market is expecting pretty much around three to four cuts by this time next year roughly. So the market's expecting three to four interest rate cuts by by this time next year. And you know now you're just playing a game of dissenting between how long they want to wait until they start cutting again and are they going to wait, you know, one more meeting? Are they going to wait till September? Meaning are they going to do it this month? Are they going to do it in September? Are they going to do it in

October? when are they going to start or kick off the the the wave of cuts that that they've been forecasting on the dots? That's really the question. The problem here is differentiating what the Fed is implying and what the um governor or board members and governors are dissenting against versus what the president is asking for. The president is asking for 200 basically to cut the Fed funds rate in half like almost immediately. Now, there that's a very there's a very large difference between putting 200 basis points of cuts on the table immediately and arguing over whether they should cut 25 basis points at the next meeting.

It's almost comical, right? And I I I think that's like a very touchy subject because obviously, you know, you have the administration gung-ho pals of fraud. You know, typically in government, nobody's clean, right? Everyone's hands are dirty. So how this comes down and and who's innocent and who's not, I don't know if that's really the debate we should be taking. The question we should be really having here is the there were fundamental reasons why the Fed had to cut or decided to cut interest rates last summer into into the fall. And there's fundamental reasons to why they stopped cutting rates. And that's basically due to labor shocks accelerating and then decelerating rapidly. Now, how what the Fed does from here, how they want to ease cuts through

is a different story. I think that the Fed has they have it seems like they have the room to cut. The question is is again 25 basis points or 250 basis points and the administration wants you basically the way Trump seems to be looking at this is he looks at the Fed funds rate as as a as basically a marker of of just where he was last presidency. It almost seems like last presidency he had rates at two, now they're at four. And in his mind, he's like, I want them back where they were when I was the president last time. Because when when they went that when I was the president last time and the rates were that low, the economy was booming. Everyone said it was booming. A very simplistic approach would, I think, suit the situation well here where Trump just

thinks for the economy to really roar, rates need to come down significantly. Now, the more complicated approach here to what I just said was the is the fact that it's fueling net interest expenses, right? Rates being this high are fueling net interest expenses and they're costing they're costing spending categories on the deficit. You're basic half the deficit, right? Is essentially interest expenses at this point. And the government looks at it very simply, I would assume, in in Congress when all the doors are closed and they look at each other at some point they're going to say, "Look, you know, we we want to bump up, you know, med maybe we want to bump up Medicaid spending. We want to bump up, you know, social services.

Maybe we want to bump up education, but none of us can have our way. We want to bump up defense, right? Everyone has their own every party has their own spending categories, but we can't do anything because interest expenses are so as so astronomically high. What happens if we just get interest rate expenses or interest expenses down via lower interest rates? We can then afford to spend where we want to spend. And I think that's the ultimate problem here is Trump's being taken as a guy that's going to quote unquote blow the deficit higher with the big beautiful bill. But in his mind, if interest rates were half where they are today, he the deficit rise wouldn't be as real. And the problem with that is the reason the interest rates are so much higher than where they were when he was president first time the first time is the deficit

is nearly twice as high. So that the deficit that we're running is grown basically 100%. So not that they're t you know it's not point for point. It's not there's no mathematical equation to measure where interest rates should be up here due to deficits down here outside of maybe a Taylor rule, but ultimately interest rates are offsetting the fiscal stimulus that's being pumped into the economy through the higher deficit. So this comes back to our whole point. We'll tie this all together that if the Fed were to cut rates in half with an economy that's already running above potential with a recessionary level deficit, you're almost guaranteed to have this bleed right back into inflation. And that I think is the risk

that which the Fed is I don't I don't think it matters who you put in the Fed in the Fed's chair position. They're not going to cut interest rates 200 basis points. I I think between the board of governors, there's there's enough consensus there to understand that, you know, you could debate, look, over the next year, do you want four cuts or do you want six cuts? It's not a debate of whether you're going to cut 200 basis points next month. Gotcha. I'd like to come back to the um something you said as well. So, you said it's it's everybody sort of agreed that we're going to have rate cuts, right? It's just a question of when that timing is going to be and as you've said, we're kind of on the precipice of risk on. Um Arthur Hayes has written uh one of his

famous blog posts recently basically saying something similar, right? Like all roads lead to debasement of the dollar. We're going to go back to spending. Risk on is coming. So just get allocated now and frontr run that. Walk us through the the thought process of your your systematic system of waiting until you get that signal. like what is the risk of getting in before that signal fires now and just knowing we're going to have risk on soon versus waiting too long and maybe missing the best entry like walk us through like what drives that change in that model for you guys and and what you what you see like how you think about that that allocation decision. Well, there's a good summary to what you just said and that being when we go when you position yourself on a via systematic approach,

right? Where risk on is defined as bullish growth impulses. Um it doesn't really matter where inflation's going as long as growth impulses are bullish. You're essentially in risk on territory. Now, the issue with front running this, you can do it. Some pe, you know, we've seen people do it. We've had some luck doing it ourselves in the past, but we've reverted from front running our own models because what happens is this is the times where you don't get the pivot for whatever reason. Here's a good example. Maybe next week we go on a tariff rampage. Whatever reason, risk assets go down 10%. Right? And like we were saying earlier, maybe that that gets that's a Trump that acts as a Trump pivot. Trump sees the market down 15% 10% is like, "All right, I'm going to do

another walk back." But by you front running the system, you've put yourself into leveraged risk exposure or risk on exposure. And now you're taking a draw down where you don't have a real exit plan because the system isn't going to flip. The way this works for us is us flipping risk on we and and the trends aligning and basically our rules aligning, we open up risk exposure to the upside. But for us to get out, either the trend has to break on the asset that we're long or the regime has to break. If you frontr run the model, what ends up happening is you have one of the sa one of your safety checks no longer are there. So what's going to happen now is you're going to be in a position where you don't really have an exit plan and the odds of you getting

hurt to the downside on whatever may be, you know, 20 30%. Not saying that it won't recover, it's just not fun volatility wise, right? Especially with the leverage factor 3x, a 10% draw down in the NASDAQ is, you know, a 30% draw down in the leveraged product at least. And then 80% of your P&L being in that, you know, you're talking about 24% P&L draw down. And that's not fun when it could be avoided. It doesn't sound fun for anybody to to see a draw down like that. But if you're in crypto and you're trading altcoins, we're we're type of stuff all the time.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we've had we definitely have some of our members and you know, even us, we can kind of see that a risk on pivot's coming and some tech like to take advantage of it by just chasing risk. And there's nothing wrong with this. It's just you're you're you have to have backup rules in place. Like everything is, you know, there's no oneize fit all fits all. Like I said earlier, you can add discretion to the systematic approach. You can get creative with it. It just comes down to how you want to manage your risk. And for me, it's easier to know that the signal says get out. I get out and the signal says get in, get in. And I don't have to sit here and be like, hm, did I make a mistake? Maybe I shouldn't have.

Maybe I should size up. Maybe this is just a dip for ants and I can basically pile in leverage even more to make up for my ridiculous, you know, pre-entry that got smoked. It's a bunch of ways this can go wrong, right? And by me just following the rules, at least for me personally, because we run our own capital in this ourselves, right? For us, for me, it makes sense just to wait for the rules to snap to to trigger and and snap in and out of the proper regimes and then just kind of lay it up, right? Instead of sitting here trying to like reverse engineer or basically work myself, drive myself crazy when the rules are there for a reason.

Yeah, it seems uh it seems like a a great system, which hey, when you when you follow it through, then it makes a lot of sense. Uh I want to Arty, you mentioned earlier um that when you go risk on that you've got a bunch of assets that you'll be looking to accumulate and acquire. What can you give us a breakdown of what assets you are looking at and where you're thinking about allocating when we do go risk on? Well, we keep it pretty simple with um the model that we provide. uh we just go 80% of our portfolio into triple leverage NASDAQ and uh 20% of the portfolio is in Bitcoin which that we

also we enter during slowdowns as well just because historically Bitcoin also performs well during slowdowns. So we've already been in that. Um but yeah, we would allocate just triple leverage NASDAQ but obviously there's a million different ways to skin the cat. like you can go into semiconductors or other high-risk assets. That's when they perform the best is during riskon regimes. Even some even some altcoins, right? Yeah, altcoins too. Like every single altcoin bull run happened during a riskon regime. They do not happen during riskoff regimes. So even just having that guideline and just knowing when it's time to get in and when it's time

to just chill and just stay in cash if you're trading altcoins, it's a great indicator for that. Um, so there's there's plenty of different ways to to take advantage of it. And typically when our system triggers risk on, it also tells us that it's going to be a somewhat longlasting regime. It it doesn't trigger easily. So when it does trigger, it's something that's going to last a while. Growth impulses are gaining momentum and we're going to be in a positive growth territory for a decent amount of time.

Can you Gam I see you pulling up stuff on your screen. I'm going to share you again. Can you show us a Yeah, that's what I was going to ask. Historicals. Yeah. So what I'll show you guys right here is basically what it looks like going back to 91. The green this is filtered for risk dynamics, right? And then obviously the regimes of the four regimes we were speaking about earlier. But understanding the risk dynamics are more important because that's where it doesn't ne see if you're in a deflation regime in risk off or you're in a stagflation regime in risk off. It doesn't necessarily matter. What matters more is in your risk off and same with slowdown and risk on as well. um you know you may have some sectors that perform better in expansion versus inflation but in terms of risk assets overall they go up in both these

regimes. So basically dissecting where we are with the regime you can see here that in a risk dynamic uh filter when we have risk on which is green enabled the market does pretty pretty well and in risk off bonds tend to do quite well too depending in 2021 we had the f infamous stock bond correlation go to one where the Fed was hiking like maniacs and bonds were getting smoked and so for equities and bonds were not a long at this period. They were bearish trend. So this is the most important thing with us is we have a double filtered system, right? So in layman's terms, just because we're in a riskoff regime or

risk-on regime, if the underlying trend doesn't align, we are not going to allocate chips to the trade because it's just all factors need to line up, especially with leverage. You don't want to be caught in a situation where, you know, oh, just because it was a riskoff regime in 21 and the Fed was hiking rates, you know, there was so many bull cases as to why you should buy bonds and wear diamonds all long across that draw down, right? Everyone was like, oh, this is the bottom rates are going to peak here, turn around. That was when like the 30-year was at like 1.5 or 2% or something like that and then just kept going. And the the problem with that is if you don't have the trend filter on the asset that you're buying, you're going to run into a situation where you don't have, again, going back to front

running the rules, that double protection and being able to get yourself out of improper trends, even though the system may not see it just yet. They both have to see it for you to be in it. And as you can see here, as Arty was saying, risk on risk on um regimes do happen. They are pretty consistent and they're great to be long risk assets and it looks like as you can see here we outside of maybe you know the GFC where we basically were down bad for a quite for quite some time risk off periods don't necessarily h stay around for too long riskoff slowdown. So, we've seen this long period of riskoff slowdown now about 6

months. It does seem like we're about to get another spurt of risk on. Seems like a pretty good setup uh as we go into the rest of the year. And love to love to hear, especially for all our listeners who I know hold bags and altcoins are going to be quite happy to hear that there finally finally might be an old coin season. uh because it's been a it's been a rough a rough year and a half as bitcoin has just absolutely dominated every every altcoin uh unless you held meme coins for a minute or a few select tokens for a minute but on the whole uh gent absolute pleasure to get you on the show today. For all those listening in who want to follow you uh and want to learn more about market radar where can they do that?

Uh they can follow us on xthearketraar or uh go to our website at www.market-ra.com. Uh, we do have some free products that you can sign up for. We've got a free macro dashboard. We have a free Discord. You can ask us any questions you want. We do our own live podcasts in there as well, so you can come listen in and have a chat with us. Right on. Awesome. Yeah, really appreciate all the content you guys are putting out. Uh, and I think it'll be great value to our listeners. So, make sure you guys go check out Market Radar. I got to remind you guys, as always, that none of today's show is investment advice. I'm not your investment adviser.

Neither are any of these other guys that are here today. So, you should always take time and do your own research before you make investing investments because investing is risky and difficult. And if it was easy, everybody would do it and we'd all be millionaires. But we're not. But that's why you tune in to the Milk Road Show so that you can make the wealth that you're looking and achieve your financial dreams. Thanks so much for tuning in. Y'all have yourselves a wicked awesome day. We'll see you back again tomorrow. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap. This is a deck that we built in partnership with Cow Protocol. Why did we build it? Not to make money. Just honestly, so we could have a place to do our swaps for the lowest fees that we could find. This is

the fees on Ethereum, Arbitum, and Bass are only 0.15% fees. Uh this is a huge difference from uh other centralized exchanges that charge half a percent or even up to 1.2% fees on their swaps. Also, you can swap on Salana all at swap.mmillgro.com. Check it out today. You won't be upset. And you can join me in my favorite place to make swaps on chain. As always, if you liked today's episode, please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one.

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