Market meltdown, ETH burn tracker and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #148 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the daily gray refuel where recap the latest news in the ethereum ecosystem i'm your host anthony sosano and today's the 22nd of june 2021 all right everyone uh i've had a few people kind of ask me to make some comments on the market or kind of give my a general feel for where we are right now in the market and i'm gonna be honest like i have no special knowledge here right i've said you know a lot of times on the refuel that uh short term i have absolutely no idea where the market is going it can go lower than you expect it can you know bounce it can do this you can do that and right now as you can see on my screen you know it's below 1800 uh eth and you know i think btc was it

got below 30k and you know it's very volatile out there gas prices have spiked uh you know there's just so much kind of like happening right now that if you've been here before during these kind of like brutal dumps which you know these are these are pretty much reminding me of like 2018 and 2019 you'll you'll have seen this all before and they don't last forever you know it might seem like the price is just going to keep dropping forever but eventually buyers step in um but you know who knows if it's going to be short or long term here i think the consensus really right now is that most likely in like a longer kind of term bear market you know i don't think anyone i i haven't actually seen anyone that thinks it's going to last two years again like it did in 2018 and 2019 um but at the same time

you know i think most people believe there's a higher chance of going to like a longer term bear market than you know something kind of more i guess uh short short term here now for me personally i mean as being a long term guy like i don't really care too much i mean i said countless times i haven't sold any of my eighth it's pretty much most of it isn't is in staking and i'm happy just leaving it there uh you know earning me more eath as time goes on here um but generally you know if you are over invested in the market these moves can feel really bad and i mean not even just being over invested it can it can feel really really terrible watching your portfolio just evaporate you know in front of your eyes and i think that the reason why markets

uh can go down you know faster than they can go up is because the the fear you know is more powerful than the greed and i've written about this before on the newsletter where that you know the emote yeah just just you know just anecdotally when you're kind of looking at the chart yourself or looking at the price yourself when it's going up you know yes you feel like uh really happy and you know you might get some greed and you might be feeling kind of euphoric here but but you know when it's going down that fear that fear that really grips you is much worse i believe uh at least in my experience than than than the greed uh and you know if you haven't kind of like taken any profits and if you you just uh basically kept writing it up and whatever and and you

didn't take any profits and that could feel even worse and it depends on like what your style is i know there's a lot of people out there who took some profits but kept most of their ether i know um there are some people out there that took nothing and kept all of their i mean obviously i'm i'm included in that but it really does depend on your personal situation and where you're sitting like if you're just working a kind of like a normal job whether that's inside crypto outside of crypto and you're fine you have a salary coming your way and everything like that then i i don't think that you really have anything to kind of worry about because you know you're not relying on crypto to to get you by but if you're someone who like quit their job because you had like all these crypto riches

but you never cashed it out then yeah of course you're gonna you're gonna feel about it you're gonna be worrying about it so i mean i totally get that but at the same time it's just like in an individual situation an individual choice you have to make you have to basically come to terms of the fact that the market is not always going to do what you want it to do um and you know most of the time it's not going to do what you want to do on both the way up and the way down like on the way up you might be thinking oh you know i'll cash out this arbitrary number because it's like i'll have this much money if i do that and then you know the market might go down from there and then you'll be like okay it's just

going to go back up it's fine and i think that's the mentality that a lot of new people get into is where the people over i guess like from from basically march of last year until uh i guess uh what was it like last month pretty much like eighth was up only mode right like we had dips and all that sort of stuff but for the majority of the time it was up only mode and the dips weren't weren't um as as harsh as this or anything like that so all of those people that entered the market then have never experienced this sort of market action and i'm sure there's some among you as well that have never experienced this so they can be even scarier and that's why they you know we can you can get stuck in sideways bear markets for for a long time because

it's just the same reflect reflexivity that you see on the way up like the if you count the um bull market is starting at like the bottom so march 2020 then we had like a longer than a year bull market and if you count the bear market as like the all-time high top and then you know not getting back to all until we get back to all-time high that's the bear market then you know the bear market can last a year or longer than a year and it lasted two you know two years last time so and that's not to say that i i'm saying that we're going to go into a long-term bed mark or anything like that as i said i have no idea but you need to be prepared for every scenario you can't like i mean and any and no none of this that i say

is investment advice but you can't just always think you know it's going to go up forever i mean i know i've given some really ridiculous price targets before on the refuel um you know like saying 100k but i said that i thought that would take decades to play out if it ever plays out and that's my bet that i'm taking i never said it was going to happen like next month or even next year or anything like that because that's just not how markets work like it's it's not going to 100k in two years because that would mean okay to give some context here about what this means gen generally the way i look at the markets is okay how how much is the is everyone in profit buy because when it gets to a certain point you have like way too many people sitting on way too many profits and

those people inevitably want to take those profits so um there's an indicator that i that i use called um the knuckle indicator and i've gone over this on the data pump a lot but essentially that shows you uh how much how many people are in i guess like in an asset are in profit by how much now if you think about it like even people that bought at like 300 are still in pretty good profits right now pretty healthy profits at this point um and general generally i think like a five to ten x on one of these bigger assets like btc or eth is is something that like a lot of people are going to start cashing out on not you know even the newer people that are in a 5-10 x in less than a year like i'm come on like i mean eth went 44x

from the march 2020 bottom to the top like that's that's insane now obviously most people didn't buy them i would actually wager that most people bought uh maybe between uh maybe over a thousand dollars actually i would say um and you know and the people that bought between 500 and a thousand dollars a lot of them probably were cashing out at 3k plus because they'd already made like 6x their money in a very very short amount of time like if you had bought at uh at 500 i think it was still 500 in like december or something like that and you know you saw 4 400 in may i mean that's like five months right or six months or something like that you had made a very very healthy profit six extra money in in six months and no other market on the planet is giving

you that uh unless you're kind of like gambling like buying eighth to me is is not gambling you're actually investing in a technology you know the other kind of like assets that would have given you that were something like gme or amc or whatever but they're meme stocks and like that to me was just gambling so i think when you when you kind of think about that you think about the absolutely insane profits that a lot of people have made and i've made the point before that there's never enough liquidity to cover everyone's kind of like uh profits so if everyone starts selling at the same time and then like the new money stops coming in then we just end up going you know going down and we just keep going down and it takes a while to get back up to to that all-time high so we'll see how

it plays out from here i have absolutely no idea what's gonna happen in the short to medium term but obviously i'm still very bullish i'm not going anywhere i'm already making plans for what i'm going to be doing uh if you know the market goes into a prolonged prolonged kind of like sideways bear market uh because i'll have a lot less distractions like believe it or not even though i don't trade the the price action the charts the the manual of the bull market still uh distracts me a lot and uh it's kind of hard to focus but in in kind of like a bear or sideways market is where you can get a lot of a lot more stuff done so i'm already making tons of plans there we'll have more to kind of talk about there soon um because a lot of it's got

to do with the daily way but you go i think it goes without saying that i'll keep doing these refuels of course like nothing changes on that front obviously still be in the discord um you know we're having a bit of fun in the discord right now in the prices channel there's a lot of memes going on there's this guy called aaron who's calling for an eleven hundred dollar eighth and then for ether to go to 10k and then eat to go to 300 in a couple of years or something and you know it's become a bit of a mean bit of a bit of a fun there and and i think i've i've always said that i believe bear market memes are just so much better than bull market means because shared pain or shared cope is better than like shared euphoria i think

um so yeah i mean just hop into the discord channel if you haven't yet the link is in the youtube description but i think that's that's kind of all i have to say about the market for now i mean i went over the state of the market on on on friday's refuel last week so i don't know much more to say there and and going forward i mean i'm not going to comment on the market too much unless something ridiculous happens like eighth goes below 1k or something like that like in one candle or whatever just generally this this um channel like what i do on the refuel is not really meant to be focused on price or whatever it's meant to be focused on the long-term kind of like fundamentals and health of ethereum and all the projects within it and just because i think that's more fun to focus

on the price is going to do whatever the price is going to do if you're a trader then of course you care about the price but at the same time like if you're a trader you shouldn't be watching the refuel for trading uh kind of like um commentary there's plenty of other channels out there for that but anyway i'm going to leave it at that for today i hope you're all kind of like staying safe in these markets and the only piece of advice that i would give you and this is an investment advice this is general advice just survive that is all you need to do in these markets just survive don't get blown up on leverage don't panic sell into things if you don't like if you don't need the money for anything don't panic sell like that's generally my rule with things

it's like unless you actually need the money to live or to pay bills or whatever then panic selling into kind of like these dumps is just going to end up getting you wrecked and and and yeah but anyway i'm going to leave it at that moving on to the project updates uh so elinora from uh on in the discord chat uh pointed out that uh alchemix's kind of like um initiative here to basically collect uh the funds that were lost in the recent exploit he's going really well so you can see here this is the return funds dashboard and they've already collected over 1 000 of the 2200 uh eth that is owed to the protocol which is really really cool so i mean just a quick recap here the the reason that um uh this exploit uh sorry what happened with this exploit was that uh

essentially people could kind of like get their eighth collateral out without uh burning their their al eth for it i believe um and you know those people uh received a bonus the amount of eth so now they they can basically just return that eth to to the protocol here which is you know it's really cool to see that uh you can see that over a thousand eighth has already been given back which means that over a thousand eighth worth i don't know how many individual people that is but like this these people are honest which is really cool now you can see here my account wasn't involved in the incident because unfortunately i wasn't able to mint any ale before the incident happened or maybe fortunately because i wasn't involved in the in the kind of exploit here but no one lost any money here was the protocol

that lost the money but anyway really cool to see this if you were involved in this and you do have some of that bonus eth that you need to give back i mean do consider giving it back like you're not obligated to like no one's forcing you to do it but do consider giving it back because uh you know making alchemics hole as a protocol and making it healthier as a protocol i think i believe is the way to go so yeah really cool to see this hopefully we get up to 2008 the sooner rather than later so zach from coinbase posted a tweet today that usdc has just reached a 25 billion dollar market cap now i wrote the delegate newsletter today about the about stable coins basically in and in it i was talking about how usdc

uh usdt sorries and tethers dominance has actually been going down over time because i know there's a lot of concerns about tether um there's a lot of kind of like i guess um uh fud around it there's a lot of people saying you know tethers unbacked and when it blows up it's gonna take the whole crypto market with it i mean this kind of stuff has been around since kind of like tether existed and also this stuff tends to rear its head during bear markets i don't know if it's coordinated fud from people that want to buy in cheaper i don't know what it is it just seems very odd that this happens whenever the market's going down i guess people just want to look for someone to blame or whatever or something to blame or a structural issue whatever it is um but gen generally i i just like don't

kind of listen to that sort of stuff like usd t is is what it is if we want to actually um get off dependence on usd usd tether um then we should be kind of focusing on other stable coins so that's what exactly what's happening usdc is growing uh dye is growing busd i mean there's a bunch of others out there l usd there's so many of our stable coins now uh and they're growing and they're taking market share away from from tether which is which is positive because we don't want you know just one stable coin being um the king here but in saying that we also don't want one centralized stable coin being the king now usdc yeah it's better than tether but it's still centralized right it's 100 centralized it's just a different kind of um a different kind of king here right uh

whereas like it's coinbase instead of bitfinex for example so i i i mostly try to focus on the growth of like the decentralized stable coins but that's pretty hard these days as well because die is like 50 backed by usdc um and like the algorithmic stable coins have pretty much all blown up spectacularly there's only like a couple out there that are still okay but even they have like some centralization vectors and things like that and one thing that's actually not technically a stable coin because it's not pegged to a dollar and it's not pegged to any fiat currency is rye and that actually has been holding its stability quite well around three dollars but it's pegged to itself um if you want to learn more about ride it's actually a good bankless podcast about it um i won't kind of describe how it works on

the refuel but essentially that has been holding um it's kind of like pegged to itself quite well but anyway i think that the the longer like i guess like time goes on the more of this kind of like decentralization of stable coin dominance we're going to be seeing i think uh you know tether is still like very dominant in terms of trading volumes though which is something i discovered while doing some research for the newsletter where tether's 24 hour trading volume over the last uh 24 hours sorry is that 25 billion dollars where usdt is only i think 2.5 billion and busd which is binance's stablecoin is only about six billion so you can see that tethers dominance is absolutely insane um and you know tether is obviously supported on pretty much every major exchange you can think of it is used and favored by a lot of the

big traders out there a lot of the whales out there it has extremely deep liquidity um and and obviously a very high market cap at about 70 billion dollars at this time of recording so i think that those network effects can't be understated um you know you can't basically say that you know these other stable coins are going to just eat tears lunch because there's risks associated with it no liquidity gets liquidity in a lot of these systems so for tether to be dethroned from its kind of like trading volume mantle uh it's going to take a long time i actually think it's going to take much longer than people think it will and in that time you know tethers is going to be growing its network effects you know tether's not slowing down it's it has it's not going anywhere unless you know the critics are right

and that tether is actually not backed by anything right um and you know it has all the shadiness behind it and whatever i'm not gonna comment on that but if they are right then yeah that's probably structurally bad for crypto but it'll be less bad if we have these alternatives available at the time because that means people could go from tether into these alternatives and we wouldn't have like you know as bad of a of a crash if you kind of think about it that way but still uh look i'm gonna keep an eye on this you know you can read the newsletter for some more uh kind of info about this but still good to see that usdc is growing um you know i i hope to see kind of like stable coins uh i guess like decentralized at least market share over time

obviously usdc and tether and bust all that are never going to be decentralized stable coins but at least we're not going to have like this single point of failure with tether going forward so uh tim bico put out a a reminder that the robson fork for london is this week i mean i spoke about this on yesterday's refuel there's actually an eta kind of count down here on ether scan you can see that at a time of recording it's happening in one day and 16 hours now obviously this is just a test now not the main net so this may not be interesting to you but i think that focusing on this sort of stuff is obviously positive because as i said yesterday if the test nets go well then the main net date it will be uh late july early august if there are

hiccups on test nets if there are bugs then one five five nine is definitely not happening uh in late july early august because you know they'll have to fix the bugs and then we'll have to redeploy to the test and everything like that at this point in time i don't think it really matters if you were relying on one five five nine to be like a massive price driver i mean maybe it was in terms of its narrative maybe that is a big part of why eth went to four thousand four hundred but i you know i don't think that one five five nine is gonna be a by the news event or sell the news event or anything like that i just think it's just another protocol upgrade that goes into ethereum that's just gonna be there you know in perpetuity it's not going to

uh you know ethereum doesn't cater for bull or bear markets it caters for all markets and you know if we do have another year bear market i think i discussed this on yesterday's refuel but if we do have another year uh bear market from here then in a year's time ethereum is going to look amazing right like 1.559 the merge done we're going to have layer twos like pretty much rolled out we're gonna have d5 continuing to grow lots of new d5 apps that we couldn't even think of at this point in time so yeah i guess like uh we'll see what happens around one five five nine i still you know the funny thing is about the market is that we're at 1800 right now or below that or whatever the price of eighth is but next month we could easily be at 3k

plus if for some reason the market's feeling bullish again so who knows who knows what the price is going to be maybe the price will be 15.59 when you know that's a meme that i've been uh that i've seen kind of like playing around there i really don't know who knows but yeah still got to keep an eye on this uh and i'll definitely be keeping you updated on the refill for sure so muhammad and i i kind of spoke about mohammed the other day they uh he him and his team kind of like built a web page called watchtheburn.com which is basically a way to watch each being burned on uh the test net so it's currently monitoring the cavaliero test that i believe or something like that um and you know that's one of the smaller tests that's happening right now and i'm sure it's going to switch over

to you know robsten or wrinklebear whatever testnets when that comes comes along okay the testnet's called calaveras here and that's devnet so and then i'm sure this is gonna kind of like change over to main net once that's deployed which is really cool because you can see on a per block basis how much ether is being burned here obviously being a devnet there's not much activity happening but this is going to be really really awesome to refer to i think it's gonna be one of the most popular websites when one five five nine is deployed to mainnet because it'd be an easy way for people to kind of look at what's being burned take screenshots share it to twitter and just like get something for the community to kind of rally behind so yeah i'm really glad this exists i mean i think i mentioned on the review a

few weeks ago that i expected tools like this to to go live very soon because we were approaching one five five nine and they're just like very very popular right um because of the fact that we're gonna be burning ethio so looking forward to seeing this uh be pointed at the other test nets when they go live and and the main net obviously when that goes live hopefully sooner rather than later so quick reminder here there is a ethereum foundation research team ama happening on june 23rd at 1pm utc which is in 24 hours from time of recording um for you know by the time you watch it could be much less than that so i don't know what time one percent 1 pm us utc is actually no i do know what it is in my time

it's 11 p.m australian eastern standard time now if i'm uh remembering correctly because that's when i do the ama my amas um uh 11 p.m uh my time is 6 a.m pacific uh standard time so uh west coast us 9 a.m east coast and i think sometime in the afternoon for uh my friends in europe so yeah and then asia i think would be like maybe around 11 around kind of this time like late night as well so if you're available then definitely go check out this ama uh i will be uh putting together on the refuel a recap of the ama in terms of like the most interesting questions and answers on there but these amas are always really good there's a lot of meat in them too so yeah definitely uh get ready for this there'll be links in youtube description

to go ask your questions before the ama happens but i'm sure there's going to be a lot of stuff in there from the ef research team to get excited about and to keep us going in in this kind of like down market here because i mean there's always so much exciting stuff happening in ethereum right like you can't be bored even when the market is quiet you cannot be bored in ethereum so stockwere announced today that they're building a uh new stock where a stock net full node called fermion and the core team that's building this uh is alexei uh sharp uh from uh men to guren uh sorry igor sorry i should say uh uh from aragon so eragon was turbo geth i've i've spoken about eragon before so it seems that these two

two guys here are going to be building both aragon and starknet's full node as well so uh they're it's really really cool to see this and they're hiring as well so you should reach out if you think that um zk roll up full nodes are cooler than flying cars um and this is really cool to see that i think um you know more of the ethereum layer one you know core protocol researchers and developers are getting the chance to build layer two kind of things yeah like full nodes and stuff like that because you know it's it's funny because people go um it talks a lot a lot of the time people talk about you know how how are core devs going to get funded um you know are they just going to get funded by the ethereum foundation or are there other places that are going to fund them so

typically it's been they're standalone companies like prism and lighthouse um sorry not lighthouse sigma prime and a bunch of others out there there's obviously been the ethereum foundation there's been consensus there's been bitcoin grants funding as well they've been there's been vitalik's air drops back in the day he airdropped a thousand eth to some of the core eth2 teams um and now we have uh starkware one of the layer two teams funding uh their own kind of like full node here but i'm sure that that money is gonna go far to be able to allow alexei and igor to continue their work on eragon and actually i should mention that noces is also supporting eragon here with funding and they have also supported core development in the past and i'm sure i'm forgetting some but you know there's plenty of funding out there for core devs which which i

really really love and you know uh i think it's just really positive that these developers are getting to do what they want to do but also getting compensated for it uh and you know it's just really cool to see them working on on this and i'm looking forward to other layer two kind of like uh i guess protocols like arbitrary optimism um you know of course like polygon is really involved there as well in kind of contributing to to kind of like uh you know their core developers and getting them on board and paying them for their very valuable work here so speaking of core development uh nimbus has introduced uh fluffy which is an ultra light client for ethereum so what this means is that low rest this is built for low resource devices such as mobile phones raspberry pi's

things like that no syncing required are built for massive scale and has a native json rpc here so this essentially means that you could have like a a light client on your phone and you'll be able to kind of talk to the ethereum network using this light client now i don't know if this is for eth1 and eth2 i'm assuming it's going to be for kind of both here um and you know you can see like it detailed in this blog post goes into a bit of a technical detail here so if you want to read this you can go check it out but this is really cool to see that another kind of client is coming to ethereum um and it's an ultra light client a ultra light client as well because that's actually something that ethereum has been missing or at least there hasn't been enough

focus on in the past is that these like this light client ecosystem and the fact that that nimbus is building this nimbus is part of the status team is really cool because this is another team that's been funding ethereum core development they've been building an eth2 uh uh client called nimbus um as well which so it's really really cool to see them um you know building a new one called fluffy here so i haven't spoken about loopering too much lately but they are still around and they are still doing massive scalability at layer two here you should definitely go check them out if you haven't yet when gas prices are actually calmed down again which they will be soon once the market volatility dies down it's the perfect opportunity to get on loop ring so if the gas price is about 10 way then it's very cheap to get onto

loop rings layer 2 um and do all your kind of like fast cheap and secure trading on there and that you know it doesn't just go for loopering it goes for like all of the layers who's out there on ethereum you know you have to bridge in so why not bridge in when gas prices are cheap you know this goes for everything like polygon arbitrary optimism stock wares ecosystem loop ring um you know start with ecosystem includes dydx diversify immutable x uh zk sync uh for your bitcoin grants um donations hermes network like there's so many layer tooth yeah things out there right now and the best time to get onto them is when gas is cheap and obviously there's going to be centralized exchanges supporting some of them i've talked about how

okay coin and ok x support polygon ok x is also going to be supporting arbitram i'm sure coinbase is going to be adding support for these things soon uh but generally uh you know when gas is cheap that's the best time to get on layer two so yeah go do that if you haven't yet um maybe gas will be cheaper by the time you watch this because right now it's hovering at almost 200 way which means the market is quite volatile and people are doing arbitrage transaction transactions and trying to save their positions from liquidation and all that good stuff but anyway i'm gonna leave it at that foot today so thank you again everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give that video a thumbs up subscribe to the newsletter join the discord channel and i'll catch you

all tomorrow thanks everyone