🚨LIVE: Saylor SELLS MSTR? CLARITY Imminent? Oil Bounce! What's Next? Michael Terpin & Marko Zelman

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[music] [music] Heat. Heat. [music] [music] >> [music] >> Thank you, son. Lord, we'll see you around the timeline.

Feels good to be back. I [music] think the rollup is one of the most premier media brands in crypto and Andy and Robbie are great experts at everything [music] they talk about and it's my favorite podcast. >> Adding it to my library every day >> potentially multi-chain deployments. Here we are at day one [music] here. I'm guessing from space. [music] [music] >> [music]

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It's just it's next level. This industry is going to the next level. And guys, I I don't know what else to say. >> I'm bullish. [music] >> He said it. He finally said it. So bullish. >> It is bullish. I'm bullish. We're bullish. >> [music] [music] [music]

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Let's go. [music] >> Welcome to the next. See you on the show. [applause] >> Happy Monday. Happy Monday. Happy Monday from the tokenization tower here in the financial capital of the world. You are watching the rollup. Today is July 13th. It is a bloody Monday out there. Get ready for turnaround Tuesday tomorrow here. As always, guys, we're at the nest powered by our friends at Plume. Visit plume.org to learn more about their asset management product, The Nest.

Guys, I had a hell of a weekend. It was my birthday. I went down to Florida. Um, I hung out with my family, played a bunch of golf, had a nice dinner or two. Um, turned 27, so I am now 27 years old. Uh, out of the mid20s into the mid to late 20s. Definitely definitely feels old. Um, but we're all right. We're all right. Market's a little down today. I guess we were restarting the uh Iranian conflict over the weekend. You know, I guess uh I guess our guy Trump was just getting a little bored, so press the red button. Um the trade of Hormuz, who knows what's going on. Well, we'll talk

about it. Today, we've got uh markets and and weather. Robbie's going to join the show a little bit, maybe in like an hour or so, maybe a little bit less. Um he'll he he'll be back for the end of the show. He went to his sister's wedding. So, his sister got married. My brother proposed two weekends ago. His sister got married this weekend. and it was my birthday. >> So, the boys are growing up. The older sibling of the of the boys are are growing up. We've got the transformed VC CEO calling in and Tapper Protocols founder. Um really today's show is going over what happened in the markets over the weekend. Uh our portfolios are down a bit, hype's down, purr's down. Um Zcash actually holding up quite well

across the board. Some other things happening. So, we'll we'll get into that and more. Uh as always, our topics are powered by our friends at Treasure. Visit treasure.io. Use code rollup10 to get 10% off a treasure today. Let's get into the markets. Let's get into the weather. But before we do, let me tell you about FRA. Building infrastructure for the future of digital money, open, stable, borderless. Visit frack.com to learn more about their F FRXUSD stable coin and more. It is 80° in New York, guys. It was 96 in Florida. I played 27 holes of golf on Saturday. And I got a birdie. One birdie, a single birdie. Tons of pars.

Tons of pars. Couple doubles, couple triples. But uh maybe five, six, seven pars. Birdie, bunch of bogeies, and then some holes where you just, you know those golf holes where you hit the first drive out of bounds, and then your second shot is no good. And then and then you're just like, dude, well, I'm already at a triple bogey. I'm just gonna I'm just going to pick up. And so we had a couple of those as well. But it was a fun round. uh had some great shots. As always guys, our weather is probably by our friends at Relay. Visit relay.link for some of the smoothest crosschain swaps in crypto. Let's get into the markets and I know that's what you guys want to talk about. Let's first talk about dinari building infrastructure for tokenized US equities and bringing real world stocks on chain.

Uh visit dinari.com to learn more. Guys, uh we had a bit of a weekend move upwards actually. Uh we had Bitcoin trading in the uh high in the mid60 range almost all weekend just kind of chopping around and then all of a sudden last night at about 8:00 PM Eastern we got a just pretty gnarly candle on futures open. I think I think Trump was talking about bombing uh Iran again or something as soon as the 5:00 p.m. futures opened and then now we're facing the consequences of that. I think the market's a little bit shaken up by that.

Uh ETH at 1773 actually holding up decent. Soul at 75 kind of at a must bounce area here on soul uh chain link 7.9 near showing some strength relative strength trading at 1.95 right now uh and holding the line holding the line quite well um lighter also holding the line it is down 10% today from that big run that it had topped out at about 2.73 um yeah I mean hype at 63.66 66 VVV at holding that $10 mark. Aerodrome under that 50 cent mark. Uh so it had quite the pullback as well. Uh Robin Hood chain is really the talk of the town. Uh

if you guys got involved in that. I think that Cash Cat token did well if I'm not mistaken. Let me just pull that up. I don't know. Did anybody get into Cash Cat? What's up everyone? Hey NooC, what's going on man? Hope you had a good weekend. Um what is Cash Cat doing? Everyone's getting excited about Robin Hood. meme coins. I haven't really done much there to be honest on my side. I kind of stayed away from all that for now. It's at 150 mil still. So, honestly, holding up pretty well. Did anybody get into any of those? Has anybody traded on Cash Cat or on Robin Hood chain? Has anybody seen anything?

The The real thing here is that oil is up. Oil's up at 79 78 79. Um, and yeah, people are a bit worried about this conflict, and I don't blame them. I think um I think it's back in the driver's seat. The market's kind of treating it like it's not that big of a deal. But at the end of the day, what we're seeing is we're seeing um the market kind of be scared because we all kind of thought that that this uh Iran escalation was kind of coming to an end, but here we are and it is July 13th and we are f firmly firmly in in the camp of this is not ending. So, we'll have to see how

that plays out. Uh obviously, the stock market's down a little bit today as well if I am not mistaken. Check that out. S&P barely down a p half a percent, NASDAQ down 2%. Uh so it's getting hit quite a bit harder than than the rest. Um so yeah, guys, I mean, you know where we stand. We're, you know, 3 to four months out of the end of this bear. I think it's I think it's clear that we're in the transitory phase. I would like to be bullish and say look the bare market's ending, the bull market starting. But as you guys probably know, there's a period of time between the bare market ending and the bull market starting. And it's often just kind of

like this time based capitulation where you get a lot of sideways action and a lot of chop. And we have seen outperformance from hype from Zcash from Aeron Z um Zama some of these others. But until we get that continued sustained Bitcoin uh stability, then we're just going to be in this kind of like choppy timebased capitulation period where people will feel more and more likely that it's, you know, coming to a halt, coming to an halt and they're in the transitory phase. Um I still think we have more room on the summer bounce. I think it's possible that we get quite a bit higher on the summer bounce throughout July. Um and so we'll see.

And so guys, that is the market. That's what's happening here. Let's get into the news. Before I do, let me tell you about Near and Near.com, your home for onchain finance. One account, no borders, your financial life, all onchain. Visit near.com to learn more about how to manage your onchain portfolio in one of the easiest ways possible. That's near.com. All right, guys. Uh, so I saw this post and circle founder Jeremy Aair shares his personal thesis on the agentic economy in onchain finance. He says, "An economy run by software agents must run on software money, software contracts, and software governance or it cannot run at all." He basically put out this entire like what he called his like

long-term thesis uh on the agent economy and it's he called it a treatise. And so I thought this was pretty interesting. Uh he's basically is arguing that uh agents are going to require instant settlement microp payments and programmable financial rails cue the circle shell cue the USDC shill they will be well suited for this machine economy I think it's something that we're all kind of anticipating here right like we're all kind of anticipating what's going on in the future where uh agents will operate on chain will they use stable coins will they use credit cards what will they use and I think it's pretty clear that there is a need for this agentic agentic economy to be ran on stable coins and I

think that's just going to continue to happen and we expect it to continue to happen and so we're on the same page here with Jeremy and yeah guys let me know what you're holding um Mari NFT good to see you man yo what's up man good to see you uh guys what are you holding in the market today did you guys take any trades this morning what are your positions what are you thinking about the about this Iran escalation Um, yeah. What are you guys seeing out there? I'm seeing my portfolio getting a bit beaten down today. As I was saying, I expect a bit of a turnaround Tuesday after this Monday.

Um, but what are you guys seeing out there? What are you guys seeing? Let me know what you're seeing. All right, let's keep it rolling. Um, I thought this was something that we needed to cover uh, not only for our portfolio within the show, as you guys know that we share a lot of the portfolio. What's up, fam? What's up, Kings Clips going on? Um, so Hyperlid announced that the RWA interest reached a new all-time high of 3.6 billion. Total open interest climbed to about 11 billion. Closed my short on Bitcoin. New Trip said, "Yeah, man. I mean, New Type you were saying that to us. I mean, I guess it was probably like last week when everyone was getting all bullish like, "Oh my god, Bitcoin's flying." You're like, "Let's keep our emotions in check and let's, you know, let's see where we're at in a week." And like this is the

exact type of market condition, new type where uh the week by week is so rapidly changing and especially when it comes to the upside, it's hard to really have that like longer longer term bullishness or faith in the upside. So Hyperlid OI is above that 11 billion mark. I've got it up on the perpetual pulse site that I was telling you guys about. Aster is at 1.86 86 billion. Variational is beating aster or sorry variational is beating lighter in oi. So it's at 1.27 billion and a volume just under a billion in 24hour.

It's got about 33% more oi than lighter and a little about 33% less volume in 24 hours. So that's variational. you got to think about how much they may be they may be accounting for uh you know like the trading of the like farming the airdrop and again I've been saying guys I think variational is a decent one to allocate to um in terms of like think about that airdrop and trying to like you know whether you're trading pers or just trading spot I think that may be a good way to get like a basically some additional yield on your uh trader right so if they do if they do the airdrop the way you can think about it is any trades that you've won or lost, you kind of get

an additional yield on those by allocating for that airdrop. And I think it's going to come probably towards the end of summer. New new type says, "Yeah, man. W trade." Yeah, definitely. So I mean look guys this is the thesis for so this is like this is my this is like the thesis that keeps me bullish on hype and just on in in general on these purpose platforms is the OI the volume and the revenue is going to be coming from non-crypto assets and this ties very well into the next post as well from Frank uh which is about tokenized stocks. So, let's go into that. But before we do, let me tell you about Infinifi, building DeFi infrastructure for simpler access to onchain yield, liquidity, and capital allocation. To explore more efficient onchain finance,

visit infinifi.xyz. And so, basically, Frank's out here saying uh and in in this chart, I I quote tweeted as well, took stocks grew from roughly 1.4% 4% of the RWA market cap to over 15% in the last year. So monthly alchain volume tells the same story. $17 million in July 2025, 3.4 billion in June 2026, nearly 30x growth in a year. And yeah, I mean this is going to be this is going to be the story for the purpose platforms and the spot trading dexes on chain. And basically this is being led

by Xtoxo dinari uh Salana's um was it wormhole sunrise platform and so I think that like this is again guys if you think about the second and third order effects of this the platforms that facilitate this happening on chain are going to be massively valuable in the future massively valuable and so that continues to be our hyperlid lighter aerodyome unis swap variational um Kraken, a morpho, etc. thesis here is that these platforms will win and I mean I think that we continue to see that and so I wanted to highlight this because it's funny that the

industry that we've built here is actually for it's actually for um trading everything on chain and we just didn't have that many good crypto assets. So what we've done is we've gone out and we've allowed people to just trade endless amount of stocks on chain. And look, I'm bullish on it. I'm excited. But and these things are definitely moving from a niche experiment to meaningful volume on chain. And I expect this to be a core driver of Salana's narrative and a core driver of per hyperlquid as well. Um and I'm bullish on this. I'm bullish on this. Edwards, what was the TLDDR in that lighter article that released last week? Need to make 100K or I'm clipped.

Um, basically they did the burn of their tokens and they burned a good amount of the LIT supply and they they released a ton of new order types as well. Um, Michael Sailor equals Sam Bankman 2.0. All right, let's get into Michael Sailor. So, uh, Sailor announced that strategy added $450 million to its USD reserve and their cash do their total dollar reserves stand at $3 billion, which is enough for about 18 months of stretch yield payments. Strategy continues to hold what is now 843,775 Bitcoin on the balance sheet and they

sold a ton of Micro Strategy shares. They sold a ton of Micro Micro Strategy shares. Um, and so people are kind of getting on sailor here saying, why did you sell Micro Strategy and not sell more Bitcoin? And I'm honestly a bit thrown off here because I was hoping he was going to I was hoping that he was selling more Bitcoin and that was leading to the market reacting in the way that it did in terms of the little bit of the pullback, but he didn't. He sold MSTR.

And MSTR, let's see what it's trading at today. It's trading at 91. So it's not it's it's holding and stretch is at 86. So again guys, our bull thesis on stretch was that it just comes back up to that 88 to 92 level and kind of sustains. We need to see another push this week on stretch. I'm honestly surprised it's not like this. What Sailor just did was set the market up so that they so that we have three years of dividend or sorry, yeah, 18 months of dividend payments now in cash. So it means they don't need to do anything and they have another year and a half of stretch dividend payments.

If Bitcoin does nothing, they will be able to pay that off no matter [snorts] what. So I don't know. I just thought that I just thought that this could have been I thought and I would have hoped that Sailor sold more Bitcoin in this goound and I think that's what the market wanted to see as well and so I think the market is a little bit thrown off by Sailor selling Micro Strategy stock. I'm heavy in DeFi revenue generation value crypto token sky hype uni looking for the winners this cycle agreed Mr.

Mr. Kobayasha, what's up, man? What's up? Good to see you here, buddy. Uh, once Ken Griffin's daughter convinces her dad to provide liquidity to lighter, le goes to 10. Honestly, like lowkey, I like Citadel's trading on lighter doesn't even seem that far-fetched. Like, I think Citadel trading on lighter and hype and these platforms. [snorts] Yeah, I I think it's going to happen if not already. Icon, good to see you back, buddy. What's going on, Robin Hood crypto? So, what's going on there is there's an absolute memecoin season happening. Cash Cat leading the way at 150 mil uh valuation. Have not really touched it at all. Uh and I don't really plan to touch it. Uh but I think that there's basically Vlad is pushing meme coins on

the chain. Like he's pushing meme coins and he knows that the way that they that they can bootstrap the Robin Hood chain is to push memecoins and to have this kind of speculative mania happen on chain. Sailor will be the goat of goats when the bull run returns. I love MSTR at this cheap. I'm buying to all buy it all I can. Douggee Style, I hear you, man. I hear you. I just I'm curious like do you think he should have sold Bitcoin over Micro Strategy stock? I personally think he should have. I think that selling Micro Strategy sends the wrong signal to the market even though he can.

It kind of achieves the same result. you know, you get the because like what they want is they want stretch to have the utmost amount of time and the most maximum amount of time to pay the dividend payments that that they owe twice a month. And so what they did was they gave themselves 18 months now with this additional sale of Micro Strategy stock. But the market wants Sailor to take his medicine. The market wants Sailor to eat his loss, sell a good bit of the Bitcoin, take his L and restructure and, you know, be in a stronger position.

Otherwise, people just think that that the market's just going to continue to hunt him. And that's why I think that maybe this was not the exactly the best move he could have made. I think it's better than nothing. I think Sailor should have definitely, you know, needed to do something whether that was, you know, sell Micro Strategy over Bitcoin. Well, that's what he did. And I'm not Sailor. I can't tell you what he's going to do or what he should have done, but that's my take. Robin Hood focused on RWA narratives. Yes, they are. Robin Hood is focused on our dead weight narratives, but I think Vlad and Co are smart enough to understand that the only way to get their chain off the ground is to very very firmly, very very firmly start with the

speculative mania and get people making money on chain because then when you when when they make money on your chain, they're going to want to stay on your chain. Sailor is just is just a genius and the haters who look like idiots they are when the bull run comes. I mean, look, Ducky Style, I hear what you're saying, but you can't argue that he's not in a really tough spot right now. I mean, he is in a tough spot right now. And he is in a $15 billion hole. $15 billion hole.

So, I don't know if losing $15 million is the genius that I know, but uh that is not exactly the one that I that was not Sailor being down 15 billion dollars was not in the cards for me. Was not in the cards. Um, so look, man, I think that there is very very I look, the market's going to hunt the guy out and they're going to keep hunting him and that's the problem. Hi Andy, happy belated birthday from Bulgaria. Thanks, Christian. Uh, Sly blew it with that 2029 CB repurchase only one month after the massive STRC raise. Yeah. I mean, honestly, I I think people would argue

that he blew it just with STRC, with just the launch of STRC as a as a whole. I think that that they would argue that that was a mistake. People would argue that that that he shouldn't have even done that. Happy birthday, Andy. Thank you. I don't like mean casino believing fundamentals. I agree I open but I do think that for Robin Hood to launch their chain that uh well they're going to need actual speculation on chain and that's why we got what we got. Sailor will sell MSTR when MNA is above one and sell Bitcoin when MNAV is below one. So um that's the formula. Edward I think uh I think he's below one right now.

What is MSTR MNV? Where? I I I think he's below one. Oh, no, he's not. He's at 1.07x right now. Okay. All right. You're right. Sailor suck him dug himself in that hole. He's an idiot. Yeah, he did the most. He literally admitted to using AI to develop stretch. Yeah, he did. Crazy. crazy. So guys, look, I mean, I think that this market is going to have trouble getting itself into any sort of um any sort of bullish structure until Sailor is continued to be hunted. And I don't think you have to be in fear. I

think our tokens, if you guys are new to the show, all you know, we we've been very focused on fundamental cash flowing assets that have diversified revenue sources and have been outperforming the market in this bare market. And so I think we're going to be fine in that regard. However, you know, do I think that the market wants to shake Sailor out more and really test what he's made of? Yes. Do I think that Sailor is bogging down the Bitcoin narrative as we know it? Yes. So, that's my take on that. All right, guys. Let's move on from Sailor uh because we've got more things with Iran and and the stray and I think this kind of get us into the more macro. Before we do, let me tell you about LeFi, building infrastructure for crushing swaps, bridging and routing across the onchain economy. Visit lee.fi

to learn more. Um, so looks like Trump is basically saying that the Hormush trade is open and will remain open with or without Iran. Um, uh, this post frames America as the guardian of the hormone straight. I don't know how Trump thinks that this is going to work, but all I know is that between Sailor and this war, we've got some real headwinds from the market. We've got some real headwinds that we really need to deal with and it's not going to be easy to deal with. And so, look, I don't have much to add here, guys. I think that the that I honestly think that every time that we get this type of news, the importance of the news

diminishes in the sense that like we get the war, then we get the uh resolution, then we get the war, then we get the resolution. Like I think the next resolution announcement will have far less positive impact just as this war announcement had far less negative impact than like the first one or the second one or the third one. Answer that. So, I honestly think that the problem with what Trump's doing right now is that he's getting himself into [snorts] irrelevant territory, which I know sounds crazy to say because he's a president of the United States of America, but he is getting himself into irrelevant territory with this war because the market isn't really

reacting. Looks like Kelsey just released a new terminal/per platform. I also saw that. Let's look at that after our guest today. Uh we we have two super cool guests today, guys. Guys, first of all, if you're watching right now on YouTube, OnX, hit the like, throw us a retweet, throw us a subscribe. Means a lot. It's the easiest way to support our channel. We go live every single day here at the Empire State Building, 12:30 p.m. Eastern. Means the world. Throw us a like, throw us a subscribe. We really appreciate it. We've got an amazing first guest for you guys today. Um he he is a very very experienced um very very experienced investor the CEO of transformed ventures known as the crypto godfather Michael Turpin. Uh he's an

early Bitcoin investor who founded Bit Angels and advised Ethereum in the earliest stages of growth as well. Um he has his four season cycle framework and okay launched a genesis fund called the Bitcoin super cycle genesis fund. >> Thanks >> an algorithmic Bitcoin only hedge fund in 2026. He has spoken at he will speak and has spoken at a lot of major conferences in the past. Um it will be a great great conversation. We're going to get Michael up. Before we do we're going to go super quick standby get him set up get get him dialed and we'll be right back. Less than 30 seconds guys. We'll have Michael up with us. Be right back.

[music] [music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> All righty, guys. We are here with

Michael Turpin, the CEO of Transform Ventures. Uh the crypto godfather himself. Michael, what's going on? I like your shirt, man. >> Thank you. I'm uh just hanging out here in Puerto Rico enjoying the weather and um you know, keeping track of the markets. >> There you go, man. There you go. The four seasons are certainly here. Let's get right into it, Michael. I mean, I think that we're I believe we're in the transitory phase of what has been a relatively manageable Bitcoin bare market, although it's felt un more unmanageable than previous perhaps because of the success of other markets in the time that Bitcoin was struggling for what people would have thought it should have done well. Um, you kind of

had this thesis about the four seasons of Bitcoin. And I think notably, we've got Sailor in his main character energy arc right now. Today he sold Micro Strategy shares to beef up his USD reserve up to $3 billion to pay off the stretch dividend. And so while we are in this in the middle of these kind of typical Bitcoin bare markets as always there are extraneous factors this time being sailor. Michael walk us through the four seasons of crypto kind of some of your philosophy here and then maybe any of the nuances that are a bit more relevant to where we are today given Sailor's influence in the market. Sure.

So, it's the four seasons of Bitcoin, not crypto, although crypto markets tend to follow it somewhat, but they have their own dynamics. And I did uh put that in my book uh Bitcoin Super Cycle available on Amazon and >> um and uh in bookstores uh Simon and Schustster distributes it. And uh basically um you know Satoshi in his early writings uh white paper and and and thereafter um pretty much noted that uh you know if the new amount of if the amount of new money moving into the Bitcoin ecosystem every four years between the havingss exceeds the amount of inflation the new Bitcoin which is now very small um the price has to go

up. It's math. And it always puzzled me in the early days and I've been, you know, in Bitcoin since 2012 and got in heavily in 2013, why um we had such wild volatility. And so I deduced and so far it seems to be true that um even though the price always goes up as long as new users keep being added net every four years. So, it was $12 for the first having, 67 for the 670 for the second having four years later, 8,700 for the third having, and 63,900 for the fourth having, and the next having should be higher because we keep on adding uh new uh new wallets, new money. Um, but the

wild volatility is fear and greed. And uh that's true with other markets too. But here I identified that there were four distinct quadrants that happened every cycle in the same order and I named them in you know back in 2015 16 um after the four seasons in nature. So very, you know, quickly um Bitcoin spring happens the day of the having. It's when the seed of the new fouryear cycle coming up is planted and in one block [clears throat] miners go from being you know somewhat profitable on average maybe 10% 15% and in one block they're wildly unprofitable. So if they're making 15% they're all of a sudden have the same costs half the rewards now they're losing 35%.

>> You would think that during that um season that the prices would drop but they don't. they actually stay flat and then at the end kind of go up a little bit. And that's because a there's not that many miners as opposed to, you know, all all Bitcoin that's out there now. And um most of them have uh have have resources now. They're public companies or they have a a treasury. They know that the having's coming up every four years. They can stockpile a little cash to, you know, pay themselves during that time without selling Bitcoin. And um and so what happens is that for every minor that is selling or anybody's selling Bitcoin during that very brief uh Bitcoin spring period, there's someone else willing to buy because they know that it's going to be up four years later. And so what's

happened every having now four out of four is right after the having it stays flat. This last time it stayed flat for about seven months. The first time it was flat for four months. And this is the one season that's sort of like just gradually growing. It was four months until Bitcoin summer hit, which is the day that you get a new all-time high. Then five, then six. This last time was seven. And um you know, in the in the depths of uh you know, early Bitcoin winter or late Bitcoin fall, you think you're never going to see an all-time high again, but you know, it's actually the shortest season. And so Bitcoin summer starts the day that you have a new alltime high. Very simple. So you can anybody can tell Bitcoin spring's first date. It's on the calendar. And anyone can tell Bitcoin summer's first

date with a calculator. Is it $1 more than the old all-time high? Um the where you make all your money if you're trying to, you know, not just buy and hold, but you're trying to know when to buy and sell is correctly projecting the first day of Bitcoin fall, which is the day that the B the bubble pops and you know, you identify as having popped and not being just a down leg on a way up to a higher high. Um and the the day of capitulation, which we are nearing now. Um, we may have already seen it at 57 and change. That was an early projection that I had for the high end. Um, or we may have one more leg down like we did in 2022 and we did in 2018. When capitulation happens, that's the start of Bitcoin winter, which has always been

the longest season. It's kind of the season of, you know, apathy and disbelief and okay, I'm out of crypto. All the tourists go away and the whales are waiting for a lower price that doesn't come. And eventually they realize that okay it's now the start of a new bull market. They start slowly buying back in from some of the stuff they may have sold at the top. And then um you know and then spring happens. This last time you had sort of this other season that I haven't quite decided or partial season I haven't quite decided what to call yet which is we had a new all-time high a month before the having. And um I still think spring happens the day of the having and summer happens the day of the new all-time high after the having because um it's summer. It didn't start acting

like summer this time until you had a new all-time high after the having. So you had about a month where you had a new all-time high for that cycle. It wasn't it didn't affect this cycle other than it made it a higher number that you had to hit. And then Bitcoin winter goes on until you know the next having things repeat. and you've had diminishing returns the whole time. First uh having was 100x up and then 87% down. The second one was 30x up and 83% down. The the the the next cycle was um uh I thought was going to be up 10x and it was only up 8x because of bad macro with Biden's war on crypto etc. And um and then it was down 75%. Anybody thought that this cycle was only going to go

down 20 or 30% because institutions rule were wrong. And I've said from the beginning that our best case was going to be around, you know, 60% drop. Um and uh worst case maybe 70. And we're kind of in that range now. >> Yeah, we are. I mean, just looking at it, you know, just purely on the chart. I mean, we're at 62 now. We bottomed out at that 57 mark and what was the top 126? So, we're very close to that. Um, but you did mention and and I do think that there are some changes uh this time around. Notably, I am anticipating the time that it takes to reach new all-time highs has been accelerated each cycle or perhaps that's incorrect, but I I am

kind of in the camp that the the topping on apathy that we did last bull run, right? we didn't have this euphoric like oh my gosh you know had had Bitcoin traded 150 to 170 rather than 120 I think we would have been in this phase of like mania craziness but we kind of just had this very rounded kind of like not so sexy top a lot of people weren't positioned in Bitcoin a lot of people were were hoping for better per performance in altcoins that also did not happen so just a bit of a different type of environment and so you could think that this bare market would also be different and my thesis is that just going to be it's going to take less time to get to a new all-time high than previous cycles. Do you agree with that?

>> That that has that has been pretty consistent, right? So, in other words, you have the diminishing return and then you end up having uh the new all-time high. It's been slightly earlier. I mean, obviously this time you had one before the before the having. I think that's going to happen a second time. Um because again when you I think one reason why you didn't have euphoria is you know doubling your money is one thing doing a h 100 times your money is is something else right so when you went from $12 to even you know $100 people like whoa and then like when it went to like $500 and $1,000 that was just like people had never heard of that that type of thing. And then four years later when it went up 30x and even when it was starting to approach that you know

100,000 mark that you know it would have I thought it was possible to hit 100,000 you just have to have good macro because historically uh I've noted that you know you've had these um diminishing returns that seem to be logarithmic. So before the having bottom to top was 3,000x a tenth of a penny for the one sale that uh you know Marty Malme made $5 on on PayPal for 5,50 bitcoin. Um and uh you know went up to $30 and then crashed down to a dollar after Mount Cox failed.

And um you know that's 3,000 up and 97% down. The second cycle after the first havinging was um 100x and then 87% down. So and then and then 30x and then and then you know should have been 10x I thought because 3,130 next one in that sequence is 10 and then the next one is three. We only had eight and then we had nine at the end of the uh uh the kind of ETF blip but that still counted as a high for that cycle. Um, and so I was expecting that we would have 3x the having plus or minus uh macro. And everybody thought there'd be good macro because Trump was, you know, the Bitcoin president as I've called him and, you know, you had a lot of

tailwinds, but the headwinds were the tariffs. Every time, you know, Trump started tweeting about tariffs, threatening tariffs, the stock market and, uh, you know, crypto in particular, you know, got panicked. And uh that was one of the factors in the not not so much on the 104 high but the 1010 you know black swan where you had you had the tariffs and then you had Binance uh you know selling really quickly and deleveraging its m market makers and just all sorts of you know things that were suspicious let's say.

>> Yeah. And uh that that and then once it went down a certain amount the you know the charts took over and and you started people selling and you know boom we're in a bare market. >> Yeah. And Michael are you >> Ironically though it was still exactly where the bare market's supposed to be. It was 35 after the bottom. >> Exactly. It's funny how it all works. It's that's why the the technical analysis folks say that it's always in the charts. Uh that the news happens but it's always in the charts. Um, are you worried at all about the the mining exodus to AI data center bubble happening there? Is is that a cause for concern for the Bitcoin network?

>> Not at all. Not at all. You got to remember, [clears throat] you know, even with the AI exodus, our difficulty is still like 100 trillion, you know? I mean, I think its peak was maybe 130 trillion. You know, we've proven that we can operate the the network. We did it for a year and a half on a difficulty level of one. I don't think it's ever going to even get down to a billion, much less a million or one. And uh you know, when the price of Bitcoin goes back up and the the cost of uh you know um AI uh compute goes down, which it has been, uh there'll be a time when they're both economically viable. So, uh you know, it it and the algorithm typically will adjust to it. So, I don't see the algorithm going down to anywhere near

where it's going to be too little to secure the network. And again, if it comes down to where we're, you know, typically level one, I'm happy to whip out my laptop and start mining. >> And then another kind of cause of concern is sailor. It is this kind of co-opting of the Bitcoin narrative. Uh you know, people it it just seems like the market is trying to uh test and the like the market will do what it needs to do to you know, hunt Sailor and it just feels like that keeps happening. He's playing defense. the market makers, whoever, the whales, the the operation, the algo, they'll just continue to try to hunt him. Today, he sold a bunch or he announced that they sold a bunch of their stock to re-up their stretch uh dividend runway. What What is your

consistent view of Michael Sailor's involvement in Bitcoin? And do you think that the market needs to hunt him further in order to to find that? I mean I mean look u the reason why stretch got in trouble was because of leverage just like the uh um just like the yen carry trade and people forget about that now it was such a crisis a year and a half ago >> yeah or whatever that was um you know so you know people weren't content making 11 and a half% they would say oh well if it's going to always be around 100 I can go and like you know leave her up and I can go and get you know 5x leverage on stretch and therefore since it's always going to be around 99 100 I could be making 55% now instead of and then all

of a sudden they get collateral calls when it goes down and once you know the Jane Streets of the world notice this happening they put out a lot of FUD they say it's going to zero look they tried to break USDC that was back dollar for dollar and that went down to 88 cents because people thought oh my god circle doesn't have any money it's a scam and it's just like fear is a remarkable motivator and short sellers particularly the pros take advantage of that and uh Sailor did the right thing by basically you know, saying, "No, look, guys, we have uh 30 years of this and that and uh you know, we're going to go and uh you know, sell up to 1 point whatever billion to uh make sure that if the bare market stays around for years, which it won't, that uh we're still fine." I I

think the one thing he hasn't done yet that he should is uh buy back stretch. That actually makes more sense than uh than selling Micro Strategy. Um although again Micro Strategy is uh you know uh trading uh you know below NAV so it's actually more expensive for him to uh sell Bitcoin in terms of the overall balance sheet. But uh yeah if he just simply took some of that money that he has uh in his coffers and bought backstretched all of a sudden it would go back to 100 right because you have buyers and um and at that point all of a sudden it stays there for a few days and he shows that he'll keep that price up.

Then people say, "All right, crisis is over." The crisis is truly over when all of a sudden it goes away because Bitcoin, you know, contrary to, you know, the uh the FUD going on with I know it's most of the STRC unwinding, you know, Micro Strategy going to zero are written by bankers, right? There was an article in Modly Fool or someone and it's like, oh, retired banker from UBS, you know, what kind of [laughter] crypto expertise does he have? And uh yeah, no, it's it's very simple. you know, once you end up getting I think it's at about 70,000, they can pay the dividend forever. I mean, it's just, you know, if you don't think Bitcoin is ever going to be back to 70,000, you should just sell all your Bitcoin right

now and be grateful. But uh obviously, we we've been through these four-ear cycles before and uh we're at right now what you know, I said in February when Sailor said the bottom was in, no, it's not. And I was like, you know, uh, the minority opinion. I I said it in Hong Kong and I had a Goldman Sachs guy debating me saying, "Oh, no, it's in and institutions are controlling everything from here. It'll be 250K by the end of the year. Uh, the whales are selling, institutions are buying." All was up.

Uh, they were wrong. And then in uh in in I was on a panel with three other people at Consensus in Miami. And I was the only one that didn't think we were going to be 250k by the end of the year for the same reasons. And uh you know the cycles are not broken. Maybe someday they'll break but right now they are not broken. And I think a common misperception is that because the inflation is so low that means it's meaningless. No you don't grade the inflation of you know 0.88% after the next having 0.44%. Even at 0.88 it's less than gold's annual inflation. It's about one and a half to two. Um you don't grade it against prior inflation levels. You grade it against demand. Right? So if you have increasing demand and you have half the supply

that's what counts. >> Yeah. >> And you know and so that's where you know I did not I wanted to call the book four seasons of Bitcoin and my publisher like Bitcoin super cycle better because that's part of the narrative. Half the book talks about really explaining the cycles but the cycles end up uh you know being modified maybe not in the seasons but in sort of the effect when they run into the scurve of adoption that happens in every you know um new technology um that you know from cell phones to color TVs to automobiles you know there's a great picture of a time square I think 10 years apart I forget the years let's say 19 >> 04 four in 1914 and in the first picture it was all horses and one car and 10

years later it was all cars. And so when you get this tipping point of adoption which is usually around 5 to 8% of a market it takes forever to get the you know crossing the chasm talked about this stuff too. Um technology adoption life cycle and uh the Gartner hype curve sort of emulates the cycle. There's this S-curve that takes forever to get through the hump of the early adopters who are the crazy people who will do anything to to, you know, to get their Bitcoin. They don't care about guey. They don't care about regulation. They hate regulation. They just they just think this is going to change the world and replace the dollar. That's like 3 or 4% of the population. When you cross the chasm and all of a sudden it's not your crazy brother-in-law who's been, you

know, hiding out in the cave and hoarding Bitcoin. it's your sister who basically put it in her IRA. That's when you get the early mainstream adoption and that's a much larger market and that's kind of where we're moving into now and with us moving into I think we're clearly in the early mainstream now but um you know the super cycle effect happens during summer when all of a sudden you have supply shock and the only time I could remember a true supply shock was in 2013 when literally Coinbase ran out of coins. I mean, and all these exchanges were just, you know, having technical errors because they couldn't find enough coins to sell for the demand. And as a result, you had this squeeze where Bitcoin went from $100 to $1,000 in a very short period of

time. Um, again, law of large numbers, you're not going to go from 60,000 to 600,000 in a couple months. And obviously, this won't happen until we're in the bull market. So, let's say we're at 150 and then all of a sudden one day it goes to 180. That's going to get people's attention even that's not that big of a percent and that would be your god candle that all of a sudden retail fobos in. Oh my god I got to get into bitcoin I got to mortgage the house you know probably with less intensity than when it went up 10 20 30 50x >> right >> because even you know if the having's around say I don't know 140 150 and it goes up to 180 that's still not that big of a thing. I mean, you'd literally to go up 3x from having it say 150, that'll

be 450. And I don't think we're going to go that high. Um, but people may think we're going to, and I do believe million-dollar Bitcoin is inevitable, and I think it'll happen by 2037. I just don't think it's going to happen uh this next cycle. >> Yeah. So, you know, that that's a a great great kind of segue. I would just love to understand from the investor perspective what you anticipate the next two to two to three years of Bitcoin to look like based on your seasons uh based on the upcoming having date. What would be your you know what's your best approximation of what you would expect just based on on on on history and your understanding of these cycles? Walk us through kind of um you know from where we are today to you know early 2029.

What does that look like? I'll take you through late 29. Um, so I believe we're still following the four-year cycle. Um, you know, and anybody who says we're not, just look at the charts. We are. Um, you know, this is uh three um three cycles in a row where from bottom to top the bubble popped 35 months after the bottom. I mean, and I said I wasn't sure it was going to be exactly 35 months again, but I did say in my book that it would pop in the last quarter of the um of the year after the having, and it did. Um, and because the having moves up a little bit, next time it might pop in late third quarter, but I still don't see a scenario where all of a sudden it's goes from being, you know, your

typical 9 to 11 months. It gets a little bit longer each time. Um, but then the having moves up a little bit. I don't see all of a sudden it's having a three three-month bull market or a two-year bull market. So, I think that just under a year is still going to be consistent. I think that uh Bitcoin spring might be a little bit longer. I think that we're going to have uh another time where we get a new all-time high before the spring. But let me let me go back to your question about where we are now, where we're going to go uh kind of uh quarter by quarter. >> Um so, right now we're at 62 and change. So, we're right around that 200E moving average that I said we needed to get below. We did not get below when we're the same price in uh February because

thing about moving averages they move >> in February they needed to have gotten below like 59 and they didn't. We eventually got below 59 but not in February. So we are now below the the you know as of a couple I think early June was when we first moved below the uh >> uh the the 200E moving average June 2nd I think it was >> and uh we've continued to go and and struggle around that level. Um that's you know resistance and support and um you know historically um we are in the late phases. So um this is a phase where you can do worse than to buy Bitcoin right now. But you it might go lower. I'd say right now I'm at the 30 to 40% chance that that the bottom is already in because it did hit

that 57 mark that I had projected. Um, but I think we're still more likely to have the bottom in October because another thing that's been consistent is 23 months, three times out of three that we hit the bottom 23 months after the initial high after the having. Guess where that initial high is? October. And a lot of other things say October. Another thing that's been consistent is roughly one year after the bubble pops to the bottom. Where would that put us? October. this there's five or six things that all end up in October. The only way that I see that not happening um is one could argue and a lot of people argued in February that for it to be February

that the number to to to track in terms of the initial all-time high is the one before the having >> and that that's based on seller exhaustion, right? Or sorry, buyer exhaustion. Yeah, you've been buying for almost two years, you're kind of done buying. Um and um you know that uh that did not happen um you know in terms of like Bitcoin summer what happens is as soon as you hit that number it goes up like a rocket ship and it did not um continue when the having it went down.

So to me that meant that the Bitcoin summer doesn't start the new all-time high of last cycle. It starts the new alltime high of of the current cycle and so far right >> vindicated on that one. So that again, I mean, if it's if it ended up June being the bottom, you could argue that it was a split between February if you counted the old way and October if you counted the new way. The midpoint is June. But right, >> interesting enough, the last two midterm bare markets, 2022 and 2018, both had dumps in February and dumps in June, but they were never the final dump.

>> Um, they were always fourth quarter. It was uh uh November uh four years ago with FTX and uh that was about a 20% dump uh from the prior low after Celsius and it started inching up right and people were thinking oh we're we're done and then FTX happened and >> what the interesting thing is did FTX cause the dump or did the uh the dump cause FTX? I mean I think it's somewhere in between. I think that you're vulnerable to a shock until you've had real capitulation. And and really the Celsius dump had some pretty good signs of consolidation, but there were still, you know, people thinking it could go lower, but there were people thinking it could go lower even after FTX. So, it's I I think that there's no way that

February was capitulation because it didn't capitulate. It went up 10% the next day and uh here in uh June, it sort of laid flat. So, I think that that's why I'm raising, you know, my percentage chance that um that June was the bottom to, you know, as much as 40%. I still think the more likely scenario is we go down a little bit more. >> It might only go down to 55. It might only go down to 53 because you usually also by before capitulation um get to the realized price and I think that was most recently 53. Um, and then after the the bottom sometimes, but you always get to um

there's another one that's like 39K right now. It's a lot of different metrics, but uh they all don't have to happen every time, but I I I feel vindicated that at least the the most consistent one, the 200E moving average was uh was reached and and uh breached. >> Yep. And so let's call it somewhere between today, which is July 13th, and the end of Q4, the bottom. >> No, no, no. I I think the I think the bottom's in by the end of October. I think that's the worst case. Um >> Okay. So worst case, the end of October, then you you mention Bitcoin, >> which is the longest and most kind of dreadful part of it.

>> Yeah. And and it starts out being really flat. Nobody believes. And every rally is is is, you know, kind of crushed by people saying, "Oh my god, I never thought I'd get my Bitcoin out uh, you know, above uh, you know, in the last time 20K and then 25K and then 30K." And so now it'd be like, "Oh my god, I never thought I'd get my Bitcoin out above 80K. I never thought I'd get out above 90K." And so every time you hit sort of a psychological level, particularly 100K, you're going to have people saying, "Oh, finally I'm only losing, you know, 20% because I bought at the top. I'm out." And um that happened last time and you know the the capitulation low was uh was 15,000 I think it was 154.

>> Um and that was the November 10th which is exactly one year to the day after the high. >> Um and then um January 1 of the next year almost two months later it was 16, I think 100. So it was pretty darn flat from 15 and change to 16 and change. What happened to move it up into? Well, I knew that it was the bottom was in when we had another sort of um piece of really bad news which everybody was waiting for the next bankruptcy. It happened. [clears throat] It happened and it didn't move the market. That was y >> um >> Genesis Lending uh which was uh you know DCG's lending arm. They had a huge bankruptcy and the price didn't fall.

Why? There were no sellers left. You can't keep selling coins you don't have. At that point, anybody hadn't sold after Celsius and then after FTX, they were holding. They were they were holding or they were out of coins to sell. And so at that point, when there's no more sellers, it's safe to buy. >> Yeah. And then so thinking about then what the rest of Q4, Q1, and Q2 looks like if we're on this more accelerated timeline. How do you think about um when that because obviously like the beginning of the crypto winter is the end or the Bitcoin winter, sorry, is the end of the bare market. It's theoretically the beginning of the bull.

Every time you look at back in hindsight at the bottom and you're like, that's the beginning of the bull, but it never feels like that. The beginning of the bull kind of feels three to six months later, you get a a period of a couple weeks where you're like, okay, this thing's not going back to those levels and the market kind of catches up. But obviously, the smart money's already realized that and you know, they're in closer to those lows. A mentor of mine always says he tries to get out above the shoulders and below above the shoulders and the bull and below the knees in the bear. You know that's one. So what is >> and and that's basically the message of my book which is uh right you you want you want to get out when uh you know fear and greed is above 90 and uh you

know and and you know you can just tell certain signs of the bubble top that I talked about in the book and um and then uh and then get back in at the bottom which we're already in. I mean, you you you could do worse than to just buy start buying Bitcoin here and just, you know, don't buy it about, say, maybe 70ish or something and uh and and and and buy even more when it goes down. But even if you bought at 70 and it goes up to 180, that's not a bad three-year return. >> So, I would say right now we'll hit the bottom between now and and and uh let's say midocctober. Um and then it'll just sort of say stay flat for a while and maybe start creeping up a little bit, maybe get over 70. Uh I don't know that

we'll get over 80 by the end of the year. It might be too early, but you know, and then of course it'll be it'll come in as another down year unless it gets over the January 1st number in which case it'll be a flat year, right? It would be a flat year that went down in the middle because again when you talk about bare market years like last year um you know was when the bubble popped but by December 30th it was down. Well doesn't mean that it wasn't a a bull market. It just meant that like it wasn't a calendar year bull market. >> Yep. We I mean the four-year cycle has never been 12 months per per uh per per season. I mean if the if the four-year cycle was exactly four years, we would always have the the the having on January 3rd and we don't

>> and it it moved up six weeks for the first having from the genesis block to um uh to the first having being in late November. And then you had this wild disruption um with mining that meant that the second um having didn't just move up to like say October, it moved all the way up to July. >> And uh that that is problematic in the sense that if we just keep on moving up about a month every if we keep on having our typical 47month cycles um you know that have been except for 2016 that means in a couple of cycles we will no longer be in the presidential year.

We'll be at the end of the year prior to the presidential year. And I think that Satoshi, and I' I've said this in the book, I've said it many times. I don't think it's an accident that Satoshi picked the four-year cycle and picked uh to start in a presidential year. A lot of other economic things go around that. And as a result, you end up having, you know, the midterms becomes a political football like it is now. I mean, the Democrats are running on like, you know, their crypto policy is this is all Trump fraud impeachment. Yes. and uh you know and it's it's it's it's a shame that you know party that at one point used to be for the little guy isn't uh recognizing the best equalizer of uh of wealth for somebody to be able to let go and you know but it is what it is right now. It

is weird how how it is weird how the technology that that yes, as you say, should be firmly supported by the Democratic party has flipped into such a conservative Republican uh capitalistic uh structure structural divide. Now, kind of just getting back to the top question there. So, I agree. I mean, I've seen some of the best uh analysts that I know and just folks speak about the kind of pricing structure and we have uh virtual bake in front of the show in the chat says 53k realized price is solid spot just call it a buy. That's where we're at. That's probably where we're going or at least in this range. I agree. I don't think we really get above 80 this year. I think that would be a miracle. I wouldn't be surprised we touch 76 75 in the end of Q4.

>> Well, 75 is like a historic resistance point, right? That's when you bounced off of the uh uh I mean that's really when the um the the the last all-time high that you had to pass to go into Bitcoin summer was at 738 and then when it crashed down from liberation day I said when it hit 75 I was like it ain't going any lower. It's already retas the cycle and so I think that 75 is going to be your pivot point again to basically say we're clearly in a bull market if it stays closes above 75 and then closes above 80. And uh and I think that could happen by December, but more likely Q1 of next year. So let's say we we we finished the year around 75. Yeah.

>> So we're down somewhat for the year even though we hit much lower depths. And then next year would be sort of your recovery year, which you know, historically has been pretty strong. I mean uh the recovery year of uh 2023 was was was really strong, right? It started at 16K and ended up at uh you know around 60. So that was uh that was stronger than even the bull market year. So I could see because again we're going to have diminishing returns unless we start a true super cycle which would not happen in in in in the um in next year would not happen in 2027 but I could see 20 27 starting around 75 um and ending you know where we do reach the new all-time high before the end of the year. Um more likely start of 28 but um

you know >> Oh really? So you can >> well because again something like a year from now we'll be at a Bitcoin alltime high. >> We could but I think that we only had it happen once and it was only a few weeks before and it had the driver of the ETFs um right and this pent-up demand. I don't know if there's going to be a similar >> um you know sort of uh catalyst. Yes, exactly. I mean, if uh if they don't pass this the the uh Clarity Act and the and the Democrats win the House, there's going to be nothing for the next two years other than impeachment hearings.

And so, I don't see how there could be a real positive macro thing to I mean, but again, because it's only it was only 2x, I mean, if we start the year around 75 and, you know, end it around, you know, one 10 or something like that, you're then getting sort of like, oh, I think I can. I think I can. I mean, you had that um at the end of uh I think it was 2016 when you were trying to think, are we ever going to be over $1,000 Bitcoin again? Because, you know, that was in uh December of 2013, you went 2014, 2015, 2016. Three full years without without getting back to that. And uh you know, sure enough, in Q1, you ended up not only getting to a thousand, but you got to the all the all-time high of of,200.

And as soon as that happened, then you know, you went up like a rocket ship and started the whole uh 2017 30x uh yeah bull market. >> So then you could you could argue 2027 would be a like a one could call it, you know, terminology aside, like a bullish accumulation year. You're going to see uh price movement to the upside uh likely ending up with an all-time high perhaps in the end of the year or sometime in early 2028. And then 2028 is like your bit is what you would call of the Bitcoin bull market year. Well, I call I mean there's three years of a bull market if you're basically saying from the bottom to the top. And so, right, year one I would call um preh having bull. In other words, it's moving up even though it's uh you know uh

second year would be having year bull. Um that's usually when you end up you know getting your new all-time high that kicks you into uh Bitcoin summer. And then the third year is the uh uh the uh you know the final the the kind of like bubble pop the bubble year. Yeah. >> And so the question is if we're in a super cycle, then we we go and we go beyond the diminishing returns because if you're looking at the diminishing returns having been 3,000x before the having on very small numbers and then 100x and still fairly small numbers and then 30x and then should have been 10x but was 8x should have been 3x but was 2x. What's the next thing? 30%. I mean,

you know, >> I hear you. >> I mean, you're never going to get to a million dollars, much less $10 million Bitcoin if it's just flat forever going going forward. And so, you have to have that um SS scurve of adoption overlay. That means for one period of a couple of cycles, you end up having the mainstream come in. Right. Right. Because we're still only >> four to 5% of the world having any Bitcoin. Not crypto. Crypto. Crypto.com thinks we're around seven or eight%. But you know people like this. There are people who only have Shibbainu or they only have Doge. They only have memecoins, right? They I don't have enough money to Bitcoin, but I got like a million, you know, garbage coins.

>> And uh you know, at some point when Bitcoin is going parabolic, even by current definitions, I mean, you know, 20% in a day uh is is considered like, oh my god, we're going to the moon. 20% in a day back in 2013 was called Thursday, you No, I mean had these things happen all the time. Um and so you know with um with with a the definition that I have in the book of a super cycle comes from the commodities industry and the CME actually had said that you know this is back in 20 let's see maybe 22 or 23. It said that um you know there were two true super cycles that they defined as being at

least five years where the price ended up >> moving beyond its normal behavior usually up um >> based on a fundamental change in the thesis. So the first one was the 70s gold went from $200 to $800 by the end of the decade. Forex >> and that happened because two things fundamentally changed in gold. Number one, um you had um Nixon basically take the world take the US and ultimately the world off the gold standard. So all of a sudden, you know, there's a change there that arguably made it more valuable. Um and uh because it didn't have to be like part of world commerce. And uh and then number two um you had a little bit later uh American were uh were were they let

Americans buy gold again because from the 1930s until the 1970s it was illegal for Americans to own gold. >> Yeah. >> Which was crazy to think of, right? >> Yeah, it is. >> And you were able to own silver just not gold. And uh when you're all of a sudden able to own gold, now all of a sudden you have a reason to own gold um and a new class of people that could buy it. So, it was inevitable that that uh you know, had I known that information, even though I was just a little kid, you know, I would have bought a bunch of gold. I was actually collecting coins back then. I was, you know, oh man, I I'd love to get a gold uh you know, deloon or whatever those things were, the gold eagles, double eagles. Anyway, so um >> uh yeah, so that was the first one. The

second one was in the 90s. Um and that was a broad-based commodities super cycle based on China. China started buying everything to industrialize. So copper went through the roof, nickel went through the roof, etc. And um they had said at the CME that we see the >> the seeds of a new super cycle based around monetary debasement and money printing. And sure enough, it happened. Had I read my own book, I would have uh you know, put more put more money bitcoin than I sold in 24 into gold and silver, you know, and instead of cash.

So um or the S&P. So, uh, yeah, you know, that that was the third super cycle and I think we're, you know, probably still in it, but it seems to have like, you know, >> tamed down a little bit. Um, so, uh, Bitcoin super cycle is the same thing. You have to have a, uh, you know, so really the one that happened in 2013 wasn't a true super cycle unless you figure that, you know, five years from, you know, 2013 to bubble popping in about 2018. Yeah, that would count as five years. and you went from uh you know um $12 to 20,000 that's that's pretty good >> and so you know I mean obviously if you're going to go beyond the diminishing returns that means you got to return more than say 30 40% from

>> from alltime high >> from all time above the alltime high yeah or above the >> I mean I think I think that would be a really really uh people would be upset if this thing topped out in 2028 at 160k >> they'd be like wow [clears throat] they'd be like that And and my bottom is about 180, which is still disappointing because that means that you might have a uh I I I think that for sure the having >> uh price will be higher than 126 because we do have new people in and that's math. >> Um but if it's 150 and only goes up to 180, that would be your roughly your 30%, right? Yeah.

>> So no super cycle. But uh supply shock would be I mean I can't imagine there not being an excess of demand over uh supply when uh you know all of a sudden you got all these onboarded you know Morgan Stanley's and Charles Schwabs now saying you should put you know one to 5% of your money into ETFs etc etc. Now, ETFs of course have uh, you know, meant that you're not really owning Bitcoin. When you're owning a DAT, you're kind of taking Bitcoin off the market other than the small amount that Sailor sold.

Whereas with, >> you know, with a ETF, you don't know what they're doing in the back end. You just own a claim on on Bitcoin. >> Yeah. >> And we know that they're playing games with with your Bitcoin. And that's why they like it. And that's why they don't like Sailor. And they've been shorting the heck out of because they would like to have him go away and have the only institutional money be in the ETFs that they control >> and they can make fees off of and all that, of course. >> Yeah. And I mean, look, they make fees off of uh selling Micro Strategy, but they don't get to control the price of Bitcoin the way that they arguably do with ETFs. And >> so again, I would say if the if the super cycle happens, if the super cycle doesn't happen, we could have a pretty

disappointing uh you know, 2028 to 32 cycle, particularly if uh you know uh the Democrats win now and uh they don't have a compelling you know uh uh you know kind of um vote behind uh JD Vance or or Rubio and AOC sort of like you know just becomes president and turns us into democratic socialist nation and uh you know sort of puts you know massive bans on buying crypto and you know 90% wealth tax on uh on crypto assets etc.

Um you know that that could be a very you know very bad macro >> and so you could see it being flat and and I don't think it means it's flat forever because the pendulum swings. If you end up having a democratic socialist country, you eventually will have a rebellion against that maybe eight years later. That's right. >> Ideally, you'd end up not having that. So, you have either have a, you know, kind of I don't know if there are any conservative Democrats around anymore. Um, but at least a moderate one. Um, or you end up getting, you know, Vance or Rubio, even if you lose the House, um, you end up getting, you know, kind of, uh, the electoral college, um, you know, voting in barely from the seven states that matter. um a Republican president

and you know he at least have crypto still you know in play in the United States but I would say again going up to the having I think we'll hit a new all-time high either um you know end of uh 27 early 28 I think the having and again a lot will depend on the elections uh the midterms uh I think that if you have the Republicans win the midterms which is only about a 30 or 40% chance but you It's only about 30 districts that'll decide it. >> So, it's c certainly possible. then I think you'll end up having um you know a euphoria rally and you'll end up getting a new all-time high perhaps even as early as November when the election

happens >> and uh that's that's good for crypto and good for coin if you don't it may it's probably going to be like you know again just before the having and maybe you get to 130 around February or March and then March to April is sort of the projected time frame right now for the 2028 having so let's say we're at >> you you know, I'll put a midpoint of neutral politics and say it's, you know, 135. Um, if we have a bit, if we have a super cycle, we'll be over 200. We might be over 300.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I think 315 is the number there. It's possible, you know, and it's it's uh what we have to see is whether the whales that uh cashed out heavy OTC at the top this last time do the same thing and whether that gives Tradfi the ammo to go and play games again >> and uh or whether the or whether now that they have all of the incentives to sell more ETFs for longer, they drive it even higher before they crash it. But I think that the the control of manipulation where it happens um has gone from mainly the whales to a mix of whales and and Wall Street. And uh if they're selling to Wall Street, all of a sudden they're now, you know, private

wealth clients of uh of [laughter] these big banks that uh own all the ETFs. So >> yeah, Michael, Michael, man, thank you for your time. I really appreciate the long-term kind of outlook and view on Bitcoin and on the market as as a whole. I think somebody in the comments said that, you know, that this framework encouraged long-term thinking, patience, and rationality, something that is kind of hard to find in bare markets, but just generally in these speculative markets, crypto especially. So, thanks for your time, for the outlook, and uh we'll definitely look forward to getting that book and getting into it a bit more. And I know our community enjoy it, so appreciate it.

>> Okay, thank you. And bitcoins.ai, it's got the book on AI and it's got the audio tapes on it. >> Beautiful. Thanks, Michael. And we can find you on Twitter at Michael Turpin on X. >> Uh, right. Right now I'm right now I'm having a difficulty with my uh Twitter account. Um, trying to get control of it again from uh the slowmoving uh people >> support. >> Um, Xup support. Yeah. Um, but uh I am updating every day on my LinkedIn which you can follow at uh it's just Michael Derpin. >> Beautiful. Thanks for the time. enjoy the weather down there in PR and uh wish you the best through the next couple of months and uh after October we'll we'll be you know have a more positive outlook

I think in the in the space as a whole. >> Happy to check in again. >> All right buddy. Thanks for your time. >> Okay. Thank you. >> Cheers guys. That was bullish guys. Let it let me know in the chat what you think about the analysis about the long-term view. I think it aligns with what we've been saying. One more quarter left here. I'm going to take a super quick break. I'll come back and check the the messages here in in a minute. We'll get Robbie up. I'll be right back, guys. [music] [music] [music]

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[music] We get deeper. We get deep. You know, we get deep. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] >> Yo, look who's decided to show up, guys. Everybody, let's give some love for Rob in the chat, man. Yes, sir. Let's give Let's give Rob some love.

>> The uh the time horizons are about to be stretched out a little bit and he's going to be gone for like a month. We're gonna miss him quite a bit. But uh we've been very zoomed in on how the 5-second charts and technical >> zoom [laughter] out. >> Michael just took us to >> fundamental analysis. >> He just took us to 2032 >> and the the million dollar Bitcoin the cash >> on Michael. No, no. Michael, the the last guest just walked us through basically like what's I mean what we've been hearing from the quant and from Michael and from the OGs is that October is the most likely low. So as we've been saying on the show, you got like you know another quarter left or less. Like

the end of October should be the end of it all. So July, August, September, that's Q3. end of October worst case the lows in and then basically you know maybe it could go to 53 maybe it could go to 48 maybe 5 55 30 40% chance that it's already in and um likely end the year at the 75ish 70 to 80k mark probably not above 80 and then just a slow grind up next year back to all-time highs on Bitcoin is likely the case I think it's going to come sooner than later I think it'll happen closer to about a year from now. So July, August, September range, ultimate high next

year, maybe sooner. But Michael seems to think that it's much more likely to be Q4 next year or early 2028 into the having in March and April of 2028 where we really start to get the explosive move into the end of 2028. >> Sounds like a four-year cycle. >> There was a >> That's exactly where we're at pretty much. >> There was that chart circulating around where they just lined them up. They put the colors. They said, you know, 2014, 15. The interesting thing that about that chart that I saw going around, I think it was the end of last week was it was bare market for a year, >> pre-bull and then bare mark or bull market one bull market too. And it was that pre-bull phase that I hadn't really seen

because typically it's like, okay, well, you kind of get, you know, the the bears and the bulls. But I like seeing that chart cuz it kind of laid things out more closely to what I remember from previous. >> Well, yeah, that's what um that's what he was saying too basically was like there's the preh having phase and then the posth having phase and like he called it like he called it that that he actually says that Bitcoin's winter is going to start in October. Um not that it's already started and that's like the very choppy slowm moving phase. Um, and then he basically called next year as like the pre-h having bull market. And he said that in 2023 it was we went from 16k to 60 in 2023. So he said that, you

know, it could be an explosive year. We could go from, you know, wherever we touch 57, 53, whatever it ends up being down, you know, up to maybe like 120 or 130. I mean, that would be a pretty explosive year in terms of price. Um but that you know next year is really where or sorry 2028 is where where the big big move is going to happen. So >> I can see it >> lines up well for us. Do you pay much attention to like because like you know there's consensus out there and consensus has shifted from you know not fouryear now we're you know consensus out there is four-year cycle for you know zooming in a little bit consensus was >> one more leg down right now it's kind of like well we're going to just stay right

around this level maybe people are coming around to that idea it's not quite as consensus as I think the one leg down camp was but and and so you kind of measure sens sentiment that way, consensus that way, just from talking heads on Twitter. And then you've got another measurement of the consensus from these like uh these kshi these poly market prediction markets of like >> y >> you know just these these these various time horizons like yeah you know bitcoin price on this day you know will bitcoin hit this price by the end of the year like how much >> do you think it's a contra indicator a good indicator bad indicator what like how much weight do you put on those or just nothing at all what do you

I don't know. I mean, I think it's I think our guy said there's a 30 to 40% chance that the 57k mark that we hit, what was that like a couple weeks ago back in uh yeah, when back when you were in Peru the end of last month um was like the bottom and then there there's like all the factors are lining up into October. I I don't know. I don't really like like we'll pull up this chart and just kind of like what you're talking about. Let's pull this tweet up. you can see like the different, you know, it's just like very obvious like here's where we're at, here's where we've been. It's really that simple. You scroll down, you can just see the the three types. So, I think I would just put way more credence to this than um like this just works.

And it's just so funny how it works so similarly every time. I mean, 2019 was kind of a weird time because we did have that big pop before that next big drop back down to those lows because co >> Yeah. >> But CO was just kind of a blimp in that radar. 2019 was that ETF run I think is what happened there on Bitcoin. Those No, that that wasn't 2019. That must have been 2023. Um I don't know what happened in 2019. I guess it was just the rebounding of that crazy dump. >> I mean 2019 as far as I remember was like blockchain, not Bitcoin. Um you had the ICO boom, but then you had a ton of SEC enforcement actions coming after those ICO companies. Um you had what else happened in 2019? I mean you had Ethereum start to develop a smart

contract ecosystem. So, you know, you had all the ICOs, a lot of those took place on Ethereum just, but you know, that was just a crowdfunding mechanism. >> 2019 is where you really actually started to see some smart contract and DeFi development, which you know, obviously led to DeFi summer in 2020. >> Um, yeah, you also had >> uh I believe it was like the Bitcoin Cash fork in Bitcoin. >> Uh, I think that might have been like >> that was 2017, I thought. >> I think I think it was 2018. I think that I think that was 2018.

>> No, because we got I got the Bitcoin Cash airdrop in 2017 on credit. >> That was 2017. >> Okay. >> Yeah. And so 2019 I mean 2019 feels like that pre-bull phase, but >> Well, that's this chart's great because it's like the pre-bull is just the end of the bear. >> Exactly. And that's what I was trying to get across is like >> like you mark that bottom like the bottom in hindsight is always like, "Oh, that's where the bull run started." But it never actually feels like that because it's like that's it just feels like another part of the bear run. >> Well, it feels like the and the other great chart that just comes back time and time again is the Wall Street psychology. You know, it's it's chop, then it's disbelief. This rally will fail like all the others.

>> That's the one I always remember is disbelief like is this rally will fail like all the others. Uh because you just get beat down by all of these bounty ball, you know, little >> I know that's what it's been like. We're going to get one more of these things. This is probably another one. I mean, we'll see. I think this summer run has a little bit more legs left, but maybe it doesn't. Maybe you just got to sign off until >> But I think >> until the end of end of a end of August or something. >> And the the thing that I like about this is there's different ways to play this. You know, I could understand an argument that says like forget the entire pre-bull phase. Like there's an argument to be made like you don't even want to be here in 2027. Even though the market

according to this would go up, it's like still so choppy and you could still just make your nut in 28, you know, 28 and 29. Again, this is >> No, but the buys are the buys of Bitcoin in Q3 and Q4 this year are the money spot. >> I agree. And so that is where like it it's the diminishing it's the EV that tends to flip as you get deeper into that red territory and and start to approach that blue territory where look if you have the patience you can deal with some pain and you're not on leverage then the timing of that is like you want to be there for the beginning of the blue right so that you have these tremendous entries that

>> and then obviously there's exit strategies that go along with that but >> yeah I I tend to agree like be there for the blue phase because that'll set the tone for the rest of the the cycle. >> Yeah, I I I feel you. Uh just like Squirrel from Ice Age, I'm trying to make my nut. Kings says, "Where can I get the download on the Robin Hood meme pumps?" We went over it in the beginning. Cash Cat and Vlad is pumping some other garbage. Not really interested. It is the way to bootstrap chains. We get that, but not really participating in that at this moment to be honest. The other thing to call out here, you know, we just still have this on the screen is that this is obviously Bitcoin uh which is going to lead uh you know is going is going to be a

significant impact on pretty much the everything else in the market. But >> I think it's you know [snorts] there are adjacent conditions that start to play out in each of these phases. Like you could say bare market everything pretty much goes down. Yeah. As you go into the beginning of that pre-bull phase that and and this is again where I think and you I think you today you called this a transitory phase that we're in right now. I agree. I think we're in this transitory phase >> as we transition into that pre-bull phase. That's when I start to see I think we start to see these secular you know market attention pops which there's a lot of >> yeah like the leaders

>> well that's what you've been saying is like the leader like you you keep saying like the leaders in the bear are likely to be the leaders in the bull the leaders in right now the hypes the Zcashes the lighters whatever else has been performing well guys that is when it really shows its strength is in that pre-bull bull phase. And then what's ironic is that in the first and second bull, if you will, >> they actually may underperform or have one like great move at the end. >> But it's kind of weird like when everything's kind of starting to trend up, they will have like these like I think they'll have these really strong moves before everything kind of setting the leadership. But then I think there's a chance that they actually don't even perform as well as the rest of things do when everything's giga bullish because

then you can just start pumping whatever you can you you can pump >> and I think there's this rotation like bear you're in very much in capital preservation mode pre-bull and this transitory phase and and we talked about it you know it was almost this outperformance mentality it was like okay everything else is flat to down can I get some sort of relative strength That's what I'm looking for in the pre-bull phase. But I think you're absolutely right. Once you start to enter first and second bull, you end up with these things have gone up so much that I'm going to look for something that hasn't pumped yet. Rotations >> 100% is exactly that's exactly it.

That's exactly it. I I agree completely with that. >> So I still feel very cozy in the outperformers for now. If we do get another big dump on Bitcoin to like 51, 48 whatever 53 I mean, I think we're going to take a hit for sure. But, uh, if Bitcoin trades 70K by the end of the year or November, December, it's trading like 72, 74, something like that, then 80 maybe even, then these um then those should those should really be starting their their runs. And then like if we're in like a kind of a semi- bullish kind of slow trend up for Bitcoin early next year, those outperformers should do really

well. >> Yeah, I I think we are going to enter some sort of mini volatility like you know I I if you zoom in like deep deep deep into like exactly where we are right now um and you're just comparing to the last cycle, you know that that's just >> that is a look at the last cycle right between the bear and the pre-bull phase. That is a Bart. And I don't like technical analysis. I made that very clear. But like I like >> inverse Bart, >> an inverse Bart.

And it's on a long time horizon. And I think you you've got to just and it almost looks like that has played out in the previous cycle as well. Not as cleanly, but very very similarly. And I think the question is, are we >> are we gearing up for like one more leg down and That's what he saying. >> Chop and then leg up. Or are if you point at like the previous leg down, which I don't know what that would have been, but earlier this year, um maybe Iran wars when we had that leg down and then we have we do have a little bit of chop if you're just looking at the last few candles in the 2026 red zone.

Are we going to chop for a little bit more and then Bart up? Which one of those is is more likely? >> Yeah, >> that's sort of what I think we're we're weighing right now. But I do the point is that I think we're gearing up for some volatility. You know all of these treasury companies have taken so much supply off the table that's going to lead to volatility both ways and like you know summer comes people leave they leave their computers like that I think is just a call for like a low liquidity environment and and so you sort of who knows but I think the uncertainty >> the last dump is coming. All right, guys. Let's move into um uh this next thing here. Trump's calling for the Senate to pass the Clarity Act. He says

today that we cannot lose the AI war uh to China, and we are not losing it. And we cannot lose the crypto war to China either, calling it some of the most important technologies uh to date. And we're coming up on that hearing. It's in four days. So I anticipate take it that that's Friday the 17th is that hearing where they will be discussing the clarity act in the senate. Um odds on poly market I don't think are that high >> for clarity.

>> I don't really think >> last we saw I think it was 40% but it was dumping. It it was >> yeah it's at 40% now. >> Yeah. And it's just been steadily moving down. >> It was at 46. I mean, yeah, it was at 46%. So, when Trump said that, it dumped all the way down. So, that news dropped today. What time was that? At 2:58 p.m. uh today. That must have been I don't know. I don't know what time zone that server is in, but it it was it came out around 11:00 a.m. or so. And so, um, it looks like on Poly Market, the odds dropped 12%

instantly to 21%. So, you had a chance to buy at 12:15 p.m. today on Poly Market. You had a chance to buy 21%. Yes. And now we're back to 40%. So, you doubled up if you got if you bought that low on Poly Market today from the Clarity Act. Uh, passing. Uh, they passed it on Friday and onchain discovery and hyperlquid. I talked to Net and Yahoo. So, what do you say? >> Yeah, what do you say? That's right. Um, so yeah, I mean, look, Rob, I don't have much to add here, but um, Virtual Baking did have some something to say that there are these listed digital commodity tokens in the Clarity Act text >> and that he thinks that these will be some of the big big winners. Chain

Link's one of them, some like Dogecoin's one of them. Um, so it'll be interesting to see like how we go from like everybody wanting a DAT and an ETF to people wanting to get the government approval of them being a digital commodity. Now >> remember we uh talked at length about this. We were in DC in March and there was a lot of fervor around the clarity act and we we went through every classification. There is securities tokens, there is commodities tokens, there's stable coins, there's collectibles I think or they had another name for it but NF's fit into there. Um there was maybe one other uh tools I think as well ENS names. Uh so yeah, there's a carveout. Uh they make the stipulation and even call out some of

those coins by name. Uh but I think and there there's text that codifies this. So it's just a matter of like now we know that the SEC is and the CFTC have made it very clear what their position is and kind of what you can do, what you can't do, where you fit in. There are actually rules of the road. Now remember, Clarity Act is just going to put these into law so that the next administration and the ones afterwards would not change, right? As there's new SEC commissioners, uh, these things would hold true as laws.

>> That's right. That's right. I mean, that's what we need. Unfortunately, we're getting Fed Waller just saying now that that the Fed may need to consider near-term rate hikes and that inflation is broadly too high across the board. I just don't take that seriously. I mean, the market's taking it seriously, but you know, sure, inflation, but you look at the labor market, man. Like, I was talking to people over the weekend. They were like, "Yeah, we're going to lay off half of our company because AI people are get I spoke to one person who did get laid off." V I saw Volkswagen was like cutting 50,000 jobs. Like the labor displacement's real and I don't think that they can raise rates

going into labor displacement. >> Yeah. Well, that's what they're saying because inflation. So, let's imagine >> just I have one last thing to say here. Imagine if they like can't do anything about labor displacement because like it traditionally they would cut rates so that companies would hire more. But if you cut rates, wouldn't a company just spend double on their token usage? Like, >> yeah, I know that is a weird conundrum to be in. >> Wouldn't they still just continue to do what they're doing? They would just use the additional >> cheap cash on on more compute.

>> So, yeah. >> Yeah, >> Fed's in a weird spot, but I think War's going to do a good job. Um, daily equity. >> Let's get into our daily equity. Uh, powered by our friends at dinari. Uh, US households are are holding a ton of money in equities. Let's get into it. [music] Households are sitting on massive cash pile despite record equity exposure. Household equities, US households now hold roughly $72 trillion in equity.

This is $18 trillion uh more than above its long-term trend from 2009 to 2019. Stock ownership in households has doubled more than doubled since 2020 and cash and cash holdings are up to 20 trillion and alltime high as well. This also exceeds the long-term trend by 5 trillion or 33%. By comparisons, households also own a record 11 trillion in debt securities such as bonds, 22 trillion or 25% above trend. Americans [snorts] American ha households have never had a bigger cash buffer.

So like I don't even know how you reconcile like I get it. The equities are at all-time highs. People have a ton of cash. They don't have as much debt or they have more debt as well but it's still you know in a reasonable range. So I mean what is everyone just richer? >> Yeah. I was as you were reading that I was thinking the same thing like who's the where what what asset class is losing? >> Yeah. Bitcoin holders apparently. >> But now what's the what's the take here? Like elevated holdings across stocks, cash, and bonds point to unusually resilient household positions for Americans. They're obviously heavily exposed to risk assets, but the record amount of cash on hand shows that they have dry powder.

>> Yeah. And that this can continue and it can just continue for longer and the cash is going to be able to sustain. So obviously I maybe the biggest loser here is bonds like US treasuries like typically like just very safe investments. Why am I going to go get three and a half% when I can go get seven and a half from the S&P? >> I think that's probably the losing asset class. >> Um I mean Andy the music's got to stop at some point in the equities market. No, >> I don't know man. I think that I I think this is basically just saying that we've been in a pretty strong secular bull run. households have been investing heavily in equities. Last week, our daily equity talked about the amount of capital um percentage- wise across

portfolios allocated to equities versus uh real estate or commodities, etc. And so, I we just continue to see that um Americans aren't doing as bad as maybe the other data suggests. However, you know, we're in a we're at a point where they're probably going to keep rates the same at the next meeting later this month. I highly doubt they're going to raise rates um and potentially lower them later on this year. So, I mean, we we we know that's what the administration wants. I mean, my take from this is that it's just there's a lot of demand for for equities. There's going to be a lot of demand for tokenized equities. We covered that

earlier on the show as well that the the the sheer demand is is we're up a matter of 10x in terms of volume uh and in terms of total amount of of tokenized equities compared to July last year. Um literally 10x across the board dex volume and total supply. So I just think that that there's an insatiable demand for stocks right now and we're seeing that happen on chain as well. >> Yeah. Yeah. I tend to agree and I think my takeaway here is that it can continue to sustain. It actually is somewhat sustainable because the cash portion that households own uh is also at record highs. Um and so if you combine this and you actually do get some technological

um efficiencies and productivity gains as a result of AI, those are going to be deflationary. It is going to ease on the macro side if you get those productivity gains. And I think you also have this idea that you know you have like the the multiples on these companies are actually not as inflated as you might think despite the market continuing to just creep higher and higher. Um I think we were at like something like a recently we were at like a 28 or 29 like revenue multiple or average price uh earnings PE multiples which I think is historically just average does not show like super uh overextension of this

market. So you take that, you couple that with, you know, cash on hand. Uh, yes, Americans are extremely concentrated in the equities markets. >> Yes, >> I think that may be the only thing that's sort of like offkilter here, but everything else seems to be at equilibrium. You know, cash holdings, uh, revenue multiples, everything sort of seems pretty sustainable. the fact that more Americans are in the stock market maybe isn't such a bad thing if we're just looking at the concentration of Americans in the equities markets. It could just be increased access. You know, it could just be more Americans are learning about Robin Hood. They're learning about financial tools. Social media has, you know, been a an education um mechanism that has educated more

people and allowed them to take more, you know, uh ownership over their financial well-being. So, you know, given that the rest of these things are on par and the only and if you isolate the variable to the one thing that looks a little bit different, it would be equity concentration. And maybe that's not such a bad thing. >> Yeah. Yep. Yep. I hear you, man. I agree. That's the end of our daily equity segment, guys, powered by our friends at dinari. Visit dinari.com to learn more about tokenized US equities on chain. I'm going to pull my screen up here um and get into some of the charts and see what we're seeing out there. Uh today we're waiting for retirement to start kicking in with the baby boomers.

Demographic shifts are hitting the USA. Okay, interesting. Starting to research big banking institutions. They will save big by using blockchain for the back end to infer and AI on the front end processes. Thoughts? I don't know. tell us what what what has your research been showing you? But I think it's probably likely I think for anything financial services related, you're going to see an uptick in uh blockchain adoption. I would say that's for sure. Um so I've got the chart up here of hype of Bitcoin um and some others. Bitcoin hanging out. Uh this is the one hour.

So, Sunday evening yesterday, we saw a really nice move down. Uh 4% or so from the highs. Um zooming out a bit more daily. It's kind of just hanging on. That's not a really great looking looking daily. And then, yeah, >> we're here at the at at these lows here that Michael was talking about, guys. That that 200 MA kind of just hanging on, man. Hanging on. Um, so look, I mean, this is October, so this is like the time. I mean, we just need to fill the rest of this chart out.

>> That's just not that many more candles. >> No, it's I mean, it's like 10 or 12. >> It's not much >> on the weekly chart. Like >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That's just 10 or 12 when you put into perspective like that, that is not that much more time until October. And if you're just looking four-year cycle bare, pre-bull, bull one, bull two, I mean, the the objective undisputed top was 10-10 of last October, right? >> So, you're looking at almost a clean one year from that.

>> So, I I Yeah, I I could see it. Um, again, like it feels like we're transitioning. It's just a matter of do we get another leg down? I think we kind of have a better sense of the timing now if everything kind of goes according to plan. It's just where are we going to be when those tides shift? Are we going to be much lower or are we just going to kind of sideways chop till we get there? >> Yep. I agree. Hype uh looks like a little bit weak. Um just kind of like chopping around. You'd probably anticipate some more chop in these ranges as these bigger MAS catch up.

>> What do you attribute this to? I mean, just lack of volatility. I mean, yeah, here's this this is interesting. So, triple top with declining volume per climax seems over ETFs launch euphoria waning neutral bearish bias for me here. You've got declining volume on all these pushes up across the board. PUR obviously looks pretty bad. Um pull like also declining volume then ETFs declining volume declining volume. So yeah, I mean this just looks like a little bit of a slowdown to be expected.

Big run, but I don't know. Consolidation between 4550 and 70 doesn't really seem like the end of the world for me. Um lighter cool >> big red candle today, but really just catching up. I mean, these MA have a long way to go, so this one's kind of just catching up. This one's really like bullish like really really strong consolidation at these levels. >> Did we get >> breakout point? >> The other thing that I want to talk about is Robin Hood chain. It just feels like that's a flash in the pan that is going to we're going to look back and say, "Yeah, you know, like one of the top 100 market cap companies in the world, one of the most influential, significant financial infrastructure companies for people in the younger

generation." and the transfer of wealth happening, we're going to look back and say like, yeah, that one was pretty obvious. Robin Hood launching a chain was was bullish. There's really not like you can't really look at it like one way or the other. Uh what did we get clarification on what the relationship is between Lighter and Robin Hood? >> They've got an instance of Lighter running on Robin Hood chain. It's got a very very small amount of liquidity, but it's just kind of getting bootstrapped now. Um, and they're the official pers partner of the Robin Hood wallet and of the application basically. And so I think that's kind of like the that was the news and that's what pushed it up back over that what was it two point it was like that $2 breakout level.

>> Nice. >> Um, somebody says are we new type are we still bullish guys? He was also new type was getting on us for being too bullish last week. Last week is bullish. This week's bearish. Welcome to the bare market. Bullish Jupiter. TA is 100% accurate. Rob, >> guys, TA >> is astrology for men. >> Is astrology for men. >> Embarrassing. >> Yeah. I mean, we need I mean, the issue with hype here is that we had this level, this purple line, this astrological line that held every move and now we're just we're closing the daily under it.

>> It's not great. >> Oh boy. So, we're see like closing the daily under it. So, so what? >> So, per I don't even know. I mean, this is this level's got to hold 6.7. These things can just they can change at the drop of a hat. Like, you know, one there's one partnership, there's one announcement, there's, you know, one big Bitcoin move, and then all of a sudden, like your MA just is a line on a chart. Like, >> this thing looks great though, man. >> What is this? >> This thing looks strong. >> Yeah, >> this thing looks good. >> Yeah. So, >> it's just not F. I mean, it it could just roll over here, but it looks strong.

>> Yeah. So, I was at a wedding over the weekend and they said, "Give me one besides Bitcoin." >> Private Bitcoin. >> What's that? >> You You told them to invest in private Bitcoin in the next Bitcoin. >> I told them cipher punk quantum resistant private Bitcoin. >> Cippher punk. >> Cippher punk. >> Yeah. Zcash looks great. I think this is still very much intact. Um, >> yes, it definitely is. Looks great. >> And so then then you think like, yeah, I mean, new type can get on us for being bullish and, you know, last week and bearish this week, you know, and just markets choppy and we're just going with the wind. New type, you know, you're a real one. You stick around. Appreciate you. So, I I do I do enjoy hearing your

perspective. But again, like I think there's nuance. I don't think we've been just generally bullish. I think we've been talking about this idea of outperformance, relative strength, and there are things out there with relative strength. You know, we just had the lighter chart that looked incredible last week. Um, Robin Hood chain thing went ballistic. Um, you know, the week before that we were talking about Aerodrome. Oh, yeah. If the line doesn't work, you just move the line and then and then >> Well, yeah. I mean, that's kind of what I mean. Like Soul needed to reclaim there and it clearly just didn't. And so you can just move the line and all of a sudden it [laughter] looks it's quite the bearish retest.

>> Yeah, I just drew it wrong the first time, but this one this one's this one's perfect. >> I mean, look how gnarly this dump was and then it needed to hold. So it didn't. So we'll have to see what happens. >> What is with this salana bullishness? Is that real? Like there was the whole like, okay, you know, people are talking about it and okay, so maybe it's Anom driving all of this, but then I saw a ton of people like, yep, so Lana's, you know, making it back and like they're not a memecoin trader anymore and they had a partnership and World Markets is going live. And it's like, okay, and then what's the next thing that's going to bring it like bring it back, you know, and like revive the trenches? Oh,

it's going to be the pump airdrop. It's like, okay. And then what? And then what? >> Says, "Show me the chart and I'll show you the news." Rob [laughter] you guys have been going back and forth though. Nah, not really, man. My positions haven't really changed. I'm getting smoked and purr. Uh, hype's cooking me as well a little bit today, but it's been good. Um, probably anticipating more rangeboundness. Still have my long-term never sell Bitcoin arrow near Zcash kind of all just chopping away. What was that that you just had? Was that this near?

>> Yeah. Like the thing that that I I see when I look at this and you can see I mean tech I guess it's technical analysis because it's just based on the chart but like you know in a lot of these other ones that we've been looking at all of those moving averages look they all follow a similar trajectory. This one is where you have some of those lines crossing over where it feels like there's a bit more of a battle, you know, and you end up with like a there's there is no trend right now. And so >> Yeah. No, exactly.

>> And and so when you end up in those in those positions, well, >> I think those places are somewhat unsustainable. And then that is when I'm looking for volatility and I'm looking for a trend to form because >> yeah, we're either going to bounce here and rip again or we're going to have to come back and get back down and test these levels again lower basically. I mean up or down, right? Always. But I I do hear you like it is kind of more it's squeezing. >> Yeah. >> You know, chart wise it's squeezing, >> right? And there's some uncertainty, >> you know, and so you're not going to have people pile on one way or the other until it breaks, right?

>> Um >> all right. Now we're looking at hype. Purr. >> Yep. HL Eco. Um, so yeah, Purr is just getting smoked still under MNAV.88, >> man. It's what? >> So there's a 12% discount there. >> Sheamus is just playing squash, >> I think. So I don't think there's much else for him to do right now. Uh, it was outperforming for a bit today, but slowed down. Still have a bunch of cash. Um, and then Hyperion. And I mean, look, they're still up 100 846 million. Like, it's kind of nuts, you know? So, it's not like they're getting it's not like they're in trouble here.

>> Do you think that there's a hyperlid to lighter rotation happening? >> I don't know. It more just seems like there's a like a bit of a pullback in terms of performance across the board happening with this latest dump. >> Okay. >> I don't know. I don't think it's as much of like hype to lighter as it is uh old big whales moving in and out uh into hype and out of it. Um based on the price being in the 60s7s people want value. They want value in the 50s 40s is kind of where I think that they think that that that they'll have value.

Um, got it. >> HP3 crushing in terms of share of volume, uh, and crushing in terms of open interest. It's the highest open interest we've seen in HP3. Covered it earlier on the show. This is the thesis. This is the per thesis right here. Uh, this is what you want to see. You You really want to see this thing grow. And that's what we're seeing. You have the SKH Highix, this uh Korean company, >> Korean like AI company. Tons of open interest >> behind the S&P above the NASDAQ.

>> Mhm. >> So to me, this is the thesis still alive for lighter variational hyperlquid. Not really worried about it. Revenue is coming from different sources. Revenue has been down though a bit. I and I look I think that's going to be the main driver of price uh albeit this you know broader market conditions but I I think you know you get into this like transitory phase uh there is no trend rightbound low volatility low liquidity over the summer means lower volume or excuse me lower open interest lower volume but lower revenue >> but we got actually the highest open interest on hyperlquid

since 1010 today. Uh where do we see total open interest? Yeah, we got the highest the highest amount of open interest and they turn on this this priority fee which is starting to grow in terms of share of revenue and it's kind of cooking every every day. Nothing crazy but uh there is this priority fee uh kind of mechanism hitting now. Variation got a new facelift. Yes. Can y'all do the TLDDR on the recent LIT article something about Yes. millisecond trading? Yes. They lowered their trading uh like the basically like the execution time from um it was a little bit over

the human eye all the way down to I think 10 milliseconds or 50. So it was like very very very fast basically. Um they also introduced new types of orders. >> Wow. Yeah. >> And and they burned a massive amount of the supply of the token and then they they posted the transaction hash of them burning it as well. >> Very cool. >> I thought Edward had that lighter stat board for us as well, but I'm not sure. >> I'm sure there's one floating around here somewhere. Um the new order types from lighter were especially cool. Uh they had atomic orders, so kind of three buckets as I understand it. uh atomic orders uh which lets you do long or

short uh in multiple markets in a single transaction. Uh so you can sort of like chain these trades together. Um and you know this would be especially great if you have like correlated bets. I [clears throat] think this will unlock pair trades where, you know, if I want to bet on ETH Bitcoin, right, I can take a hedged hedged bet, go, you know, long ETH, uh, short Bitcoin if I just want to trade that ratio. Um, there's other, you know, obviously other pair trades that we could talk about. Uh, advanced T-WP orders, uh, the second one that I saw, uh, which allows you to kind of disguise some of the things that you're doing. Uh so like randomization would allow you to like you know t-wop but you don't want

it to be very visible in the order book. Um so you can get somewhat more uh creative with that. Also aggressiveness uh you can get like you know depending on certain conditions that you can set uh you can take more aggressive or less aggressive bets on how you t-wop. Uh the third bucket that I saw was chase limit orders which uh remain competitive in the order book without manually adjusting the orders. This one like I think is very cool. Um, but I would want to experiment with it with like small size before really betting heavy on this because >> y >> I think this would actually chase up the market like you could set different

criteria as to you know what your execution uh you know space would you would want that to look like. And so, you know, if you want to get executed in 30 minutes, uh, or you want to get in at a certain price, but the order book is starting to move away from you, you know, this might bring you back into a competitive place in the order book. >> Yep. >> Which is something that, you know, before you move too far in one direction with size, you obviously want to, you know, make sure that, uh, you have a a solid grasp at how these markets and these these execution styles work.

Can you explain the benefits of burning versus buyback? So, they do buy it back as you can see here in the article. They've bought back 15.5 million lit representing 6.3 of the supply and the community wanted to have more understanding of exactly how these tokens are going to be handled and managed and what that looks like. And so, they ended up just they basically uh ended up going through and uh doing the burn. So you can see here on Ether Scan, they two days ago they sent the lighter treasury $37 million >> and they sent it to the null address, the burn address.

>> And so you can see that they successfully did the burn. And so that's there's not really like any advantage to the burn. It's just part of the buyback mechanism if that makes sense. I mean, I think the take here is like, well, if a team is deciding to burn I mean, I I think this is just a signal of like we're Chads, we have enough revenue that we don't have to reinvest this into the into our team because we're already making enough money that yeah, >> you know, anything more that we would buy or purchase or expend would just be diminishing returns. there's negative EV from spending this money on growing our business and therefore we're going to choose to burn this money because it

makes our stock appreciate. Like I think that's one take. I think the the other take is um clarity around for the community around what those uh what those like there's clarity around exactly what those tokens are going to be used for. You know, those tokens are not going to hit the market. It's more just about like really codifying that and not having it be an uncertainty, an uncertain factor, etc. >> But have they have they chosen and said that they're going to burn all of their bought back tokens or is this >> That's what they just did. That's what they I understand, but you know, they're going to make more revenue. They're going to do more buybacks for all future buybacks. Does this indicate that

they're always going to burn them? >> I'm not sure. >> Right. >> I think so, though. I would be careful with that because I could foresee them, you know, making revenue, choosing not to reinvest it, but choosing to buy back their own token, but then using that token for an ecosystem project or a grant thing or, you know, y >> it doesn't necessarily mean that always and forever they're going to be burning their tokens that they buy back. >> Yeah. I think this is the right take though from Sherpa. If you guys can get lighter at the two to two, like if you get something if you if you can get something like this, you know, and then higher, I think that would be the beautiful that would be the

best outcome. I don't know the time frame on this, but something like this I think would is probably likely and would be a really great uh uh entry, I think. So, uh let me just show that is something like this would be nice. get get down here a bit and then have that be your entry. I think you'd be happy if you missed the lighter run. So guys, I think that almost wraps the show for the day. Um, hell of a Monday. I think we get a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow across the board. Not too pressed. >> Freedom guy, we can see you. You were censored banned, but now you're back. I don't know why you were censored and banned, but we can see your comment.

Thank you for being with us. >> Yes, I can see your comment. Yes, I think we get a turnaround Tuesday. No, it's not over. Yes, we've got a quarter left or so until the end of the bear. Yes, we're going to go to over 100k in 2027. And you guys could try to be reductive and say we're bullish or we're bearish or we're bullish when the market goes up or we're bearish when the market goes down. But I think we're in this [laughter] we're in this choppy transitory phase. There isn't just oneizefits-all way to look at the market right now. And that's what we try to bring to you guys. Try to bring to you guys the opportunities here. try to show you that there is opportunities in the market despite this transitory choppy phase.

>> Yeah. And we covered sailor, we covered clarity, we covered the four-year cycles, um purr, zcash, lighter, near arrow, um and and more. We'll do more charts tomorrow. Uh we'll do more analysis. We've got great guests tomorrow as well. Um guys, it's just a bit of a rough day. That's okay. It is okay. We will be back like no other. BTC is fine. Crypto's fine. The markets are fine. This is what always happens in the cycles. We're going to be with you day in and day out.

We're going to find the winners. We're going to execute. We're going to hold. We're going to do long-term spot swing trades, medium-term swing trades. We're going to outperform. We're going to keep doing what we've always done. You're you're going to be with us every day here in the Empire State. Rob down in Florida. Guys, if you're watching on YouTube, if you're watching on X, give us a like, throw us a retweet, throw us a subscribe, we'll be live. Do it now. Yes, you would. We really appreciate it. Contributes a lot to what we do here on the show. Easiest way, the freest way to support us. W's in the chat across the board.

>> I think uh just based off one comment I'm seeing in the chat, I think New Type wins. Comment of the day. Freedom guy was banned because he was telling me Cardano solved the blockchain trillemma. >> Yo [laughter] yo >> guys, we're gonna start doing a we're gonna start doing a comment of the day. So make sure you comment. We're going to call out the best comments in the chat. >> I agree. >> Thank you. Thank you, Freedom Guy. W's in the chat. W's in the chat, guys. Great stream. Uh we're going to be crushing. We're We're on top of it. One down day. Can't get the boys down.

Tomorrow we got turnaround Tuesday. Turn around Tuesday. Let's >> middle of July. I'm 27 years old. Thank you for being here. Thanks for rocking. >> Happy birthday, Andy >> for supporting. We're winning. Shine. Yes. Give me some sound effects. >> Thank you, Rob. Happy birthday. Thanks for starting off the show today. >> Pay me and soul. >> All right, guys. We'll see you tomorrow live 12:30 [music] p.m. Eastern. You know where to find us every day, day in day out. We'll we'll we'll be here. We'll see you then. We love y'all. >> [music] >> See you guys tomorrow.

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