🚨LIVE: CLARITY At The One-Yard Line?! Market Weakness! BitMEX Shuts Down. VALR & Cysic Join

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Heat. [music] [music] Heat. [music] 17 floor.

[music] [music] We'll see you around the timeline. Feels good to be back. >> I think The [music] Rollup is one of the most premier media brands in crypto and Andy and Robbie are great [music] experts at everything they talk about and it's my favorite podcast. >> Adding it to my library every >> potentially multi-chain deployments. [music] >> We are at Dev Connect day one here. I hope you guys [music] [music]

[music] >> [music] [music] >> Heat. Heat. [music] >> [music] >> JP Morgan, Black Rock, DTCC, Fidelity,

the entire thing was just institutions. It's just it's next level. This industry is going to the next level. And guys, I I don't know what else to say. >> I'm bullish. >> He said it. He finally said it. >> So bullish. It is bullish. I'm bullish. We're bullish. [music] [music] >> [music] [music]

>> Heat. Heat. [music] Heat. [music] Heat. [music] [music] >> [music] [music]

[music] >> Corolla [music] is headed to the top. If we're not already at the top, we're going to the top. >> I think The Rollup is one of the [music] most premier media brands in crypto and Andy and Robbie are great experts at everything they talk about and it's my favorite [music] podcast. >> Adding to my library every day, >> potentially multi-chain deployments. We are at Dev Connect [music] day one here.

I'm guessing from space >> [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. Heat. Heat. [music] [music] Heat.

[music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> JP Morgan, Black Rockck, DTCC, Fidelity, the entire thing was just institutions. It's just it's next level. This industry is going to the next level. And guys, I I don't know what else to say.

I'm bullish. >> He said it. He finally said it. >> So bullish. >> It is bullish. I'm bullish. We're bullish. [music] [music] Heat. Heat. N. [music] [music]

Heat. [music] Heat. [music] >> [music] >> Corola [music] is headed to the top. If

we're not already at the top, we're going to the top. >> Roll up is my favorite. >> People from all walks of life, all over the world, all over this industry come together for the roll up. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> Zoom [music] out. The institutions

aren't coming. They're simply here. It's the golden age of crypto, guys. Get right. Let's go. [music] >> [applause] >> Rob. Hey, happy Thursday, Tokenization Tower. Today's July 23rd. You're watching the rollup live from the financial capital of the world, >> the nest. >> Everyone say good morning, Mr. Dooker. >> That is my those are my landlord's glasses. >> Mr. Dinker in the building.

>> How we doing? Welcome to the rollup. >> How you doing, man? Happy happy Thursday. Hey, shout out to Plume, the Nest onchain infrastructure, empowering the future of asset management. Rob, >> Rob, what's going on out there, man? I thought we were going up. We're going down. >> This is what apathy feels like. Mr. Dooker, welcome to apathy. >> This is what it feels like. This is where we are. We find ourselves in the tail end of the bare market. We found ourselves moving through, surviving through capitulation, and now we find ourselves in uh in apathy. So now the question becomes, how long does this last?

>> Uh, does this last the summer? Summer and apathy feel very similar. Like people go on vacation, they leave. You're going to Argentina. There's plenty of things to do in the real world. >> Oh my gosh, dude. There is the biggest snowstorm in years hitting Chile and Argentina right now. Like I'm talking Chile got 10 feet of snow in 5 days. And there's hotels in the middle of nowhere that are just absolutely snowed in. Like people like the infrastructure is so small and you know it's very small like hotels.

There's one at the base of this mountain. >> The snow has covered the full door. They literally have been snowed in >> for 3 days. I'm talking like >> the hotel you're staying in. >> No. 72 hours. No way to leave. But as soon as they get back on that mountain, oh my gosh, it's going to be the most insane snow they've ever skied in their lives. >> Sounds like good timing. >> We've got like we got projected 80 inches for the 12 days that I'm there. >> That's like unheard of. Like that's like get your snow tires ready, boys. All righty. Um, one arm bandit. Got to get the liquidity around 645. Let's go.

Clarity coming. We're about to moon. Excount is funny. Good morning, new type. Good morning, team. How we doing, guys? >> It's funny. Oh, you guys in the chat sound pretty bullish. You guys are like clarity act, liquidity, then bounce. >> Yeah, good. Good. Honestly, we we need that. I mean, it's just like structurally we're just in a weird spot with gold or not with gold, with oil. So, all right, guys. Let's keep it rolling. Uh we have a good show today. We've got Giansuko, the COO Valor. Valor is an African exchange that uh just integrated Hyperlid effectively as its underpinning. Uh, and then we've got uh the founder of Seisic talking about the AI stack today. Um, so it should be a good show. And yeah, Marcus, weather, all of that. We've got our guests at 1

and 1:30. So we get through that and then we'll do a lot of markets, charts, and more uh after. As always, our topics are powered by our friends at Treasure. Visit treasure.io. Use code rollup10 to get access to a treasure for 10% off. Let's get into the markets into the weather. Let me tell you about Fracks first. Our stablecoin partner, open, stable, and borderless digital money powering the future of the economy. Visit fracks.com to learn more. It is 75 degrees. It is sunny. It is t-shirt and shorts weather here in New York. Rob. >> Fantastic. Um, yeah, it's good weather down here, too. Beautiful day. I hit the beach this weekend.

>> There you go. As always, our weather is powered by our friends at Relay is really linked to start swapping seamlessly across many chains. one of the leading payments companies by volume transactions in the space kind of dominating out of nowhere. All right, let's get into the markets. Before we do, let me tell you about dinari tokenized US equities and bringing real world stocks onchain for to explore onchain access to tokenized US equities public markets. Visit dinari.com. I see a lot of red out there today. I see a lot of red beep. Yeah, I mean oil is at $100. I mean it oil is trading over 100. QQQ. The NASDAQ's down a percent and a half.

People, there's going to be a renewed fear of inflation. If we if this oil price doesn't dump 15% next week, uh FOMC, I believe, is next week. If oil's ripping through that, there's going to be higher chance of inflationary concerns. They're still probably not going to raise rates, but people are worried. There's always a summer low in the markets. you know, you get these summer lows, right, for um you know, the stock market usually like this the September lull in the midterm year. Um that usually marks the bottom for Bitcoin in the midterm year as well. So, there's a bright side to look at this if we do get a little bit of a one less apathetic FU to the face. Um that should be the bottom and should coincide with stocks going down. But look, I mean,

we're just going to keep trying to accumulate coins, stay strong. ETH down a little bit. Salana chain link near down a bit. Bitcoin hanging around the 65s. >> It's pretty reasonable. It's pretty part for the course. >> Trump says there will be another massive attack. >> Yeah. >> On Iran. >> Yeah. I mean, oil is ripping. I mean, oil is trading [snorts] uh I mean, last I saw it was over 100. Yeah, we're at crude is at 92 and oil itself um is yeah oil is over 100.

So um apparently there's a meeting with Trump and Chi China and US still in contact onQi's summit trip despite Trump's election claims. There's a lot of macro posturing happening. Um >> yeah, oil up on the report that Trump says a massive attack is being planned on Iran. >> Oh yeah. >> Uh there's infrastructure um Brent crude surges 5% to $100 after President Trump threatens massive attack on Iran.

>> Y >> this feels like and and also he says there's not a deal. They're willing to discuss terms. Maybe there will be a deal. >> Typically I mean the playbook thus far has been oil up. Well, we got to bring oil down. Let's talk about doing a deal. Oil down. Well, we don't need a deal. So let's >> let's bomb them. >> That the deal is off the table. Let's blow them up. >> So, there's I saw this chart of Trump um and it's it's it's Trump's announcements correlated to the stock market. And like when there's a big high, he starts bombing Iran over the last like six months. And when when there's lows, there's deals announced, there's like lower inflation announced, there's like all this like, you know, there's like new Fed, you know, there's all this

stuff that's announced. sense like he's like selling his bags, filling his bags, selling his bags, filling his bags. It's pretty pretty outrageous. Uh if that's what's happening behind the scenes, I don't know if officials can actually do that kind of stuff, but uh yeah. So, that's kind of the macro view, Rob. We don't need to get too deep into the macro side of things. It is a bit It's a bit annoying when you have to pay attention to that stuff. Uh but I do think it affects uh it affects what's happening out there. >> It does. And there's two more things that I think are just relevant to just keep an eye on. one is this uh you know Trumpqi meeting China and the US. A lot of people think that you know the US went after Venezuela and then uh now after Iran just as you work towards like

what a deal could look like with China this is kind of like the leader of that world. Um it's all posturing. Uh apparently uh things are starting to ease but the president is the Beijing China and US summit is expected in September. I could see that potentially you know causing a stir uh maybe some volatility around that. And then the other thing to watch is uh the 10-year Treasury like the bond market is doing some very wonky things. yields are going way up and that obviously >> the two-year and the 10 year and stuff >> the two-year and the 10 year are way up and that causes issues because that means that the uh government has to

print a lot in order to finance its debt because that is the rate that the government has to pay on the debt that it is loaned. Um >> yeah, the 10 years ripping >> I again think this is short-term bearish and I expressed a little bit of this yesterday, but I think this is short-term bearish, long-term bullish. We're going to hear a lot more rhetoric around the national debt, paying interest on our debt, how this is requiring us to print a ton of money and inflate our currency away. All of this is like tremendously bullish Bitcoin. So again, things breaking if you look at these things as a risk asset. you know, they're going to and and I think that is partly why we're seeing Bitcoin separate from the rest of the altcoin complex because the altcoin complex is very much

like a technology index and Bitcoin is a fundamentally different thing. And so I think right now all these high rate environment things are leading to a drag on the altcoin complex and the technology companies at large. Whereas Bitcoin is a fundamentally different thing. it benefits from hyperinflation and these these fears of national debt. Um, and so I think that's why we're seeing Bitcoin pull away a little bit from the rest of the altcoins. >> And it is funny that every midterm year we get the four-ear cycle bottom. At least that's how it's been. And that is when the heightened pressure politically speaking, >> yeah, >> hits the economic tape. Like here's what happened in the first two years of

Trump's campaign. He printed he added $3 trillion to the national debt. Americans, is this who you want? >> And like just those stats going out there is like, oh, there's got to be something that I can preserve my currency in. >> You know what I mean? >> And Andy, it's always about money. The Democrats, you know, they spend too much on entitlement programs, too much on, you know, sponsoring immigrants, too much on health care, right? They spend too much money. That's why our national debt is so high. Oh, Democrats are, you know, the Republicans spend too much money on the military. We're funding all these wars. They're the reason our national debt is so high. So they were screaming the same thing, blaming each other. The result, if you look at the moon, >> it the the resulting thing is all the same. It's the national debt is too

high. We're spending too much money. The government can't bail itself out like this. The only way is to print ourselves >> free. >> And obviously we know what happens. >> Sounds like gold's going to fly again soon. Yeah, maybe new 10 years traded at these levels longer than it did in back 2007 or 2007. History repeated itself. I highly doubt it. I think the entire world is incentivized against any sort of GFC like event obviously, so we're not going to be doomers here in the show. All right, Rob, we've got the Valor co in the in the house. We got a bunch of news and tweets and markets to cover with you guys, but uh let's get him up. Let's get that part of the show started. Before we do, let me tell you about Near, uh your home for discovering and using apps on chain. Near is one of

the best onchain applications that we've ever seen for using your apps, your funds swapping sending transferring onchain. There's confidentiality baked in. You can be private on chain just like Zama as well. Uh one of our partners at the show, Zama is also ripping um which is great to see. They're absolutely flying today, Rob. Um so from uh >> got the the shout out from the um >> the multicoin [snorts] gentleman over there, part of the uh privacy complex.

So yeah, great to see them doing great. We have a >> quarterly update from their team and privacy >> cabal members. So pretty pretty stoked around that. >> Yeah, same here. I mean, they'll be on the show next week, next Monday, talking about uh their private technology that they've built, uh what that looks like, uh and practice, their quarterly report, their financials, all of that stuff. I mean, Rugrat in the chat has been screaming at you guys to buy Zama. Like, he's been yelling at us that Zama's undervalued and that we need to get exposure.

>> And if you guys been watching, we've been covering it. And yeah, the thing's at 55 five and a half cents. It's up I mean it's up a gigantic amount this week. I mean th that daily candle today is nuts. I should have bought more as soon as I saw it yesterday after that multicoin tweet. I mean that thing is just I mean we're we're talking we're up 57% in in three in four days. >> You got that right. >> Wow. Well, we got our first guest ready in the back. We're going to bring him up. Uh COO at Valor. Uh and I'm excited. I mean, Hyperlquid, Valor, and more.

Let's go ahead bring them up on on the show. >> Hey, Gian. How are you, man? Good to see you. >> Welcome to the show. >> Good to be with you both. >> Welcome. >> Yes, sir. I love your South African accent, man. It's one of my favorites in the world. [laughter] >> It's beautiful. >> Spent a good bit of time down there. >> I'm calling in from South Africa, so that was >> beautiful. >> Beautiful. Beautiful. Yeah. Yeah. I know. We do our homework around here, so um great to have you on the show. Um, and yeah, I mean we there's a lot of talking about about trading, about derivatives, about pers, about hyperlquid, about valor, liquidity, all these things. But man, maybe just give us a bit of a lay of the land of uh what you're what you're really building at Valor to start with. I mean, you guys

have a bit of a history of kind of being a a uh prominent uh platform for the African region. Um, obviously based there in South Africa. What are you guys building? How did it kind of start? What was your involvement? Give us a bit of a quick speedrun through through the history here. Yeah, absolutely. So, Valor is about 8 years old. Um, so actually a pretty old exchange. Um, we were founded, as you mentioned, in South Africa. Um, we started off really as just a full-ervice crypto exchange. Um, we built all of our infrastructure ourselves initially. So we launched Valor when there was really just one uh main exchange in South Africa that was

dominant in this part of the world. Um and since then we've actually taken a market leading position where we account for about 70% of volumes in South Africa specifically and we're the largest African exchange serving African customers predominantly. Um we offer everything from spot trading across 100 plus assets to spot margin trade. Uh we can talk a little bit about derivatives shortly. Um we've just obviously integrated with Hyperlquid and I believe that this is the first time a regulated exchange has integrated a layer 1 to offer perpetuals across a wide range of of markets. Um and I've been at Valor pretty much from the beginning actually.

um started off literally as we launched trading and fiat on and off ramps and began my journey literally looking after all our customers. I was the guy doing support tickets at the very beginning and since then you know one thing's led to another and we're about 150 people strong now and I serve a co at very thankful to be here. >> Yeah. >> Very cool. Well it's uh it's a pleasure to have you on the show. uh like you said you were there from the from the beginning so you helped uh you know start the culture and uh now it's grown significantly. I you know before we get into the the integration with Hyperlquid and what you guys are doing with the per markets I'm just curious why and I haven't really thought about it but you

know having you on the show I sort of realize this is the case. Why do you think there's so much of a regional approach to exchanges, right? And you know, we're here in the US, we've got Coinbase, that's sort of the go-to. We got Kraken and some others as well. You know, abroad. Binance is, you know, really, really well known, very popular. Bitgat growing in in popularity as well. These are all sort of gotten their pockets geographically, but at the root, at the core, the you know, the technology is very similar, the functionality is very similar across these different exchanges.

Why do you think exchanges have such a geographically regional approach despite being somewhat similar and ubiquitous across you know their their functionality? [clears throat] >> I think um some of the nuances might be different across specific markets but I'll speak for you know our part of the world. Um so where we come from the ability to engage directly with regulators is one element right so building the trust to be able to have a regulated exchange in this part of the world is something that you need to dedicate a fair amount of attention to um the second thing that's probably more important is the ability to operate stable on and off ramps. So as you might

imagine a lot of the regional exchanges actually serve as on-ramping into the crypto market broadly speaking right. So um in South Africa one of the key questions we had to ask ourselves was like does it make sense for us to start an exchange when number one there's already a dominant player number two Binance were actually entering the market not long after we started operations. And what we observed over time was that um just because you come in with a big brand and a big name and potentially a lot of capital doesn't mean that you are able to get the bank account rails set up and to be able to serve customers in a way that is like um that they understand um and that really caters to their needs and understanding

what problems customers have in specific markets. I think you need to understand that market quite deeply. So in some markets you know the biggest changes have gotten this right but not across the globe I would say and South Africa is a good example and a lot of Africa is a good example of the fact that when you've got local regional presence and knowledge uh and like we have I would say the best on and off ramps in subsaharan Africa um that that makes a huge difference and we've managed to beat away uh what is the largest exchange in the world right um as a result of that >> yeah yeah you know I'm curious how how uh you know you speak like like the regulatory nuances and then obviously like the kind of financial services nuances. What about the customer type and user behavior like you know people

think that Koreans are some of the biggest you know degenerates in the world with their leverage and their trading. People think that Americans have a ton of money and they have all these institutions and all these like crazy you know firms similar with like the UK parts of the EU. Then you've got kind of like Australia, South Africa, kind of uh South America, kind of southern hemisphere, different types of investors, different types of operators, economies. What is the um like how would you classify the demographic of the Valor exchange customer base and user base and like what do you think about that comparatively to like the rest of the global crypto population?

>> Might surprise you actually. Um, so you might guess that the African market number one is very small and number two like follows the trend of just some people are interested in speculating on crypto assets or have a thesis about investing in non-svereign money. You know, getting out of currencies that are inflating and into something like Bitcoin as a means to protect themselves from like governments that are useless, you put it plainly. Um in reality um for Valor specifically um you will notice that we are actually our markets are dominated by stable coin flows right so onramping via the local currency South African rand in South Africa into USDT

predominantly um and that mostly is for payments use case across institutional customers. So we see a lot of our flow in the business space rather than individuals. Um and a lot of that uh that exchange volume is related to either remittance flows or even local local uh payments flows. Um >> yeah so we we serve we serve over one and a half million customers uh right now but most of our big customers actually institutional. And could you give us some stats like what is the the volume that you guys have done you know uh in in recent years recent months um you know how how have you grown uh over

the over the you know recent time frame. >> Yeah absolutely I mean today uh val is anything between $30 to $50 million a day in volume. Um that is up I'd like 90% on the last year and it's up uh many fold over the last five years. Um and as I mentioned like we've got 70% of our business is um based in South Africa and the rest is kind of you know dispersed widely across the world. Um and yeah we we at least at least onethird of our spot volume as I've which is that 30 to$50 million number is

actually leverage trade on spot margin. Um, and what is new and beginning to grow for us is the perpetual markets tread. >> Yeah. And so this is where I think we can get into the integration with Hyperlquid, but but more generally like the growth strategy. How how focused are you on still dominating, you know, the South African market and the subsaharan African market, you know, versus expanding outwards, expanding globally? And and if so, how do you how do you intend to do that? How are you going to take you know volume from 50 million to you know 500 million a day through product and and growth trajectory?

>> Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. So a big part of our growth story is absolutely expanding outside of subsaran Africa. Um we call South Africa our home. We understand the African market well. Um the opportunities that have not been cracked by uh global exchanges are in Africa I think predominantly right. Um there are other large markets like Korea as was as you mentioned Andy >> um which have like a regulatory mode right like it's very hard for new entrance to enter that market in Africa there may not be directly such a strong mo in certain markets but you definitely need to know what you're doing and the problems are harder to solve uh in in this part of the world. Um so part of

our thesis is absolutely that um the African region is dominated by stable coin flows. people want to be able to transact using dollars as the medium of u moving money. Um they I I think that it's pretty well established in African markets that stable coins are a much better way to move funds than any other network that you've got available to you. >> Um and we're doubling down on that thesis and moving into a lot of Africa to try and make that a lot more seamless for both individuals and businesses across the continent. And that's where we believe we do see a 10x growth in exchange volumes and our business ultimately. Um the second part to that is um while today you know a lot of our

flows are business focused payments related um it is also absolutely true that in both subs Africa and the rest of Africa access to be able to invest in what are the most interesting assets in the world is actually it's hard >> it's really difficult to be able to invest in Tesla SpaceX uh even like you know uh straight commodities in a lot of the markets around where we live. Um, and so making it easier for customers to get access to markets and to be able to invest or trade and express a view on markets more more uh more easily and more cheaply and with deep liquidity has been something that I personally have

been really invested in uh over time. I got into crypto originally with the thesis of, you know, Bitcoin is going to be the means for for me to hedge my exposure to the local South African economy and the currency of South Africa. Um, and that has since developed to, you know, I want to offer to all people uh in in in Africa the ability to invest in assets they want to invest in more seriously. um that access is low and it's not uh something that people are able to just spin up a wallet for generally speaking.

Um and so that led us into uh thinking about where we would be able to offer the widest range of markets and through what liquidity that might make sense. >> Yep. Yep. Yep. And I've also heard that the adoption cycle of different like stable coin financial services products that are blockchain based in Africa is like is much more seamless and uh just generally a uh faster process to adoption than other areas which I I found was interesting. I'm curious if you found something similar. I'm I'm sure it's it's it's likely on the liquidity side of things and on this kind of access side of things. Totally understand that. And so when it came to thinking about offering uh pers and

hyperlquid markets to the valor uh customers then kind integrating that into your uh expansion plans, why did this make so much sense for you guys? Um and when you were kind of thinking about the decision, what what was like the multi-year I mean you just kind of laid out the access vision, but what was like the multi-year kind of thought process around what this could lead to for your company? >> Yeah. Um at first it wasn't obvious that this would make sense actually. >> Sure. >> And in truth this meant going against our instincts um based on how we historically conducted ourselves as valor. So why I say that is historically we have built everything in house. Everything from our

blockchain infra uh to our exchange match matching engine uh and everything in between, right? Customer accounts, client service, all of this we built ourselves uh within within Valor. Um, and so deciding to uh take what you would guess is a competitive advantage for an exchange in having liquidity and having a derivatives uh matching engine of your own and saying we don't want to build that now, right? And we should probably look at where we could get the best depth of liquidity looking forward not just right now but 5 years into the future. um and and and and what would make sense to be able to give our

customers access to the widest range of markets with the best liquidity we could imagine. And that came back to hyperlquid and the reason for that is that um we've bought into the thesis that um and we we actually understand this really deeply that firstly liquidity loves to concentrate. It >> doesn't like to fragment, right? And like what's happened over the last 10 years in the centralized exchange space is that we've got so many exchanges globally that all that that does is fragment liquidity if that is the ultimate objective of your business. Um it's similar on chain. We've got so many chains that have been tested and and launched and people have gone to speculate on over some period of time

>> and what that does again is fragment liquidity. I mean like Robin Hood may do very well with their chain now. Um but one thing I'm less excited about is uh customers having to decide which chain to go to in order to get the liquidity for the asset that they want. And my or our thesis is that uh the easiest place for liquidity to concentrate based on their actions is going to be Hyperlquid. And so as a start we were very happy to integrate into Hyperlid to tap into um the infrastructure that they've built, the liquidity that they offer and to build a user experience that is within Valor for our clients. So we give hyperlquid the ability to uh have more

flow through c through the customers of valor which should in theory lead to even better liquidity on hyperlquid along with everyone else that's doing this and we control the customer relationship the regulatory requirements uh the fiat on and off ramps in South Africa and soon in in many other markets around >> Africa and so your your users are like KYC seed and AML then there's all these regulatory requirements. Hyperl is obviously trading is is markets that are made up and comprised of because this is really interesting because I don't think this would happen in the US yet which is where we are. I'm in the Empire State Building. We're in New York. It's beautiful day out here. I'm looking down at Wall Street. I see the world one one

world trade and they would never allow this to happen right now in the US. It's still a process. So I'm just curious like you know I guess here in the US the problem would be that you can't mix like KYC users with like other users who have who are anonymous. How did you like what made what made this possible? How were you able to kind of, you know, without maybe getting to the ex, you know, extravagant details, h how were you able to kind of make this work? because I think this is a pretty big breakthrough from a perspective of oh these per platforms onchain aren't going to be able to work because you know you can't have composability between regulatory or regulated exchange uh distribution platforms like a Robin Hood like a Revolute like a Valor and underlying uh per platforms on chain like Hyperlid who

have non KYC non ML users how did that work and and how did you guys pull that off? >> Yeah. Um the the first important point here is that the source of liquidity doesn't need to be the same necessarily as the regulated venue. Um the approach that we have taken is that the the the place in which regulation should be enforced is at the on and off ramps for the most part. Right? It's in the centralized exchanges that are offering customers access into uh crypto markets.

um that should not be so tightly coupled to where the source of liquidity comes from for all the reasons I mentioned earlier that if you're going to isolate uh a set of customers to only be able to interact with each other, >> you are basically damaging the customer's experience because you cannot have deep liquidity. We tried actually >> I mean we agree we agree that that's why this is such a breakthrough. It's like whoa this is like this is an this is this is the first of its kind from what I understand. >> So I'll tell you something else that's interesting which is the approach that the regulators have taken here and Val is a fully regulated uh exchange. We've got a number of licenses including a derivatives license and specifically a crypto license here is that um

and and sorry another dynamic in this market is that uh capital is actually quite tightly controlled in South Africa. it's actually fairly hard to move money freely outside of this country. Now, the the stance the regulators have taken is and and with our engagement with them is that um it's likely in the future that customers will only be able to access crypto through regulated venues such as Valor. And so the avenue for all South Africans to get access to DeFi is through CD5 and it's through Valor ultimately. And so we had a lot of confidence in the thesis that that we could prove to regulators and show them through this integration that this gives a much better experience to

customers. They have better execution on trade. They have better pricing than CFDs by an order of magnitude. I think uh ultimately um and so we can give a really good experience to our customers and show regulators that they don't need to think that they need to regulate hyperlquid and other decentralized protocols. Those should be left alone to to to enable the best possible experience for end users which in this case one of the things is the deep liquidity and the the the best place for asset prices to find the correct uh match in the market.

Yeah, it it's you know the dynamic is is interesting such that you know you you've gone and taken this regulated stance at Valor and you know basically said hey bring it on you know we can we can meet those standards and in in doing so you know you you you've put through a position where the DeFi hyperlids of the world can be left alone but you can integrate the two and ultimately bring the best of both worlds kind of you know flipping the other side as Andy mentioned you know in the US like you know there's a bit of a different approach where you know the regulation you know stretch stretch is very very deep and so uh not everything can be offered at the same time you know we have you know the likes of these decentralized like network offerings from some of these central centralized

exchanges here like I I'm and I'm just curious because I take it you guys don't really have like a plan to launch a chain right but we've seen you know the the base debacle what's going to happen with the base app and we've seen you know Robin Hood as of late launch these chains and I'm just curious about your thoughts here because you've sort of taken a much more patient approach, kind of sat and and and looked at this and said, "We're not going to play that game." I'm curious, even with the success of Robin Hood as of late, do you still, you know, do you think this is the right strategy? What might change your mind in this regard? And just a word, you know, in in what you're seeing out there, what is your reaction to, you know, the bases and the Robin Hoods of

the world? >> Yeah. Um, I think this this comes to the core of like what [snorts] are you actually building your exchange for and what is your actual long-term thesis and intention with building such a company like this. Um, I don't want to uh, you know, um, like insult anybody, but I do think a lot of exchanges just have a pure profit motive. Right now, it sounds pretty, you know, flippant to say this, but one of the reasons that I've I'm still at Valor is that we actually have a little bit more of a like an approach driven from um a standpoint of how do we actually bring

the most value that we can to customers in our market and around the world. um like South Africa has been starved of good investment opportunities of decent ways for customer for people to be able to uh protect themselves from inflation and to grow wealth, >> right? And I see that every day cuz I live here. Um, and so for me, uh, I have to, it's it's it's maybe easier to just zoom out and not be completely profit driven and have the motive only of growth, growth, growth at all expense and to think what actually drives value for people because I do think ultimately that's what allows you to continue to exist for decades to come uh is how much value you actually deliver back to the customers that you're serving.

>> And so for us, we had to take a humble approach here, right? Like yes, we could say to ourselves, launch a token. Valor has no exchange token at this time. Um, launch a chain. Uh, try to eat as much of the pie as you possibly can. And we had to had to avoid falling into those traps we think they are, right? And say to ourselves, maybe D5 and CFI serve different purposes and have different problems to solve. And so our view is currently that DeFi will be the place where liquidity likes to congregate and and pull and CFI or centralized exchanges are going to be

the people that own the customers and ultimately have the relationships >> and make sure that they can serve those customers as best as they can. >> What would change my mind um is if something happens that destroys the idea that liquidity can congregate on chain, right? So if it so happens that these blockchains just uh all get hacked because of AI [laughter] or that there's some something else like a massive regulatory push to uh clamp down on these protocols at without understanding the thesis that I mentioned right that it actually leads to customer benefit to allow that kind of innovation to happen.

Um that would probably change my mind because then it's not possible for for this for this thesis to play out. I really hope that that is not the case >> and my I have confidence that it won't be actually ultimately like even for you guys like hopefully the Clarity Act does get passed >> that may have some create some improvements maybe not we'll have to see I suppose um but regulators >> uh that I've engaged with uh thankfully have taken approach that is moderate not one that's super aggressive the markets that have been super aggressive have just failed as a result of that.

>> Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean, it's almost like the genie's out of the bottle at this point. It certainly is on things like Bitcoin and you can you could argue for Zcash as well here. Like, you know, they've tried to shut it down so many times. It fails every time because you can't you can't regulate math. You can't. It It's just, you know, something that people have realized at this point and, you know, it exists more in the people's minds. You can't just take that away from people. You know, when it comes to liquidity pooling and congregating on on chain, it it's, you know, a matter of will it be able to reach scale and continue to grow if it does reach a significant size, you know, does that pose a regulatory does does it does it become so much of a

target for regulatory that, you know, they end up attacking it. I I I think maybe we've already overcome that as well and it becomes at you know to such a size where it's almost too big to fail at this point and now we're starting to see the transition we're starting to shift where you know it's gone through the messy growth pain of getting to a significant scale now that largest institutions in the world are realizing that you know they're actually better off with this existing and joining it rather than fighting it. They spent so many years fighting it, right? That would have been the time for them to destroy it. Since that they weren't able to do so, it's it's now time where it's better to beat them or excuse me, it's better to join them than beat them. Uh

because they realize that they can't they can't beat us any any longer. So with that being said, it feels like we're overcoming, you know, we're at the precipice of overcoming some of these regulatory concerns uh and you know, DeFi almost becoming invincible from you know those those potential threats of you know and and and just being able to sustain a place where liquidity can congregate. And then with that premise and I think it is important to challenge that assumption but it feels like that assumption is pretty pretty strong at this point in in 2026 then we can build from there. Then we can build the frontends the regulated front ends. We can build the centralized exchanges. We can build the payment channels. All of these things are going to augment and

and you know ultimately optimize and scale the liquidity congregation place that we have uh such a strong foundation of. So it's exciting. you know, I I feel like we're we're in a place where we've got a very strong foundation. We've got a lot of uh direction we can build. I anticipate, you know, and maybe conversation from another time, we'll get into the RWA strategy, the institutional strategy, all these sorts of things, the AI strategy because this feels like now we've got the core principles of DeFi. Those aren't going anywhere. It's time to build around this and scale from here.

>> Brother, same page. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah, >> awesome. Well, Gian, thank you so much for joining, man. Absolute pleasure. And uh you've absolutely crushed it uh thus far. Would love to have you on again. Congratulations on the integration with Hyperlid and uh man, we're going to get this 50 million a day to 500 million, 5 billion, and just keep on keep on keeping on, man. Keep up the good work. >> Appreciate it. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks for having me. >> Thanks. >> Absolutely. We'll see you next time. Thanks. Cheers, buddy. >> All right. Thank you. >> Cheers. >> All righty, guys. Uh we've got Leo up next, the founder of Cisakic Rob. Um bullish. Um that was that is the question that is the do we need different lighter instances for um different liquidity sources that are

regulated or not or do we just have one market onchain for everything? And one guy in the chat can um onearmed bandit keep saying we are building one world market for all markets. friends, learn fast, stack faster. I mean, pretty funny, but um right, like are is that not what we're doing here? Like the the competitive thing of like, oh, all the centralized exchanges are just competing with each other for liquidity and for pricing and all this stuff. Like, yes, because you can make money that way. That is what this guy is saying. Gian saying, "Yes, that's the best way to make money." But like what we're really trying to do here and imagine a world where all of those exchanges based on their current volume, this sounds this

is going to sound silly. All the centralized exchanges are based on their current volume statistics and OI congregate all the liquidity into one venue take an equity share relevant uh some math formula relevant to their size, their revenue, their OI and their liquidity and they now we just have one venue. You know, obviously you don't just want one centrally planned market, but you know, you get a couple and that's kind of what you end up having anyway. Like what what do you get? You get Bybit, OKX, and Binance. >> The market kind of gets you there by just means of natural selection and by means of market forces. But um yeah, it's just interesting because it's like, you know, people are just kind of like there there's like going to be this new

push of like, all right, we're just going to piggy back on Hyperlquid, >> MetaMask, Phantom, Valor, >> who's next, CME. Oh, all of our futures contracts are just going to be traded on as per on Hyperlid, >> right? It's like, okay, wow, like what are we talking about here? Um, so like builder codes and that are really really interesting and these in these potential instances of lighter really interesting because it's like yeah I mean it completely shifts the incentives right for Valor. Valor is like we don't even need to talk to market makers. We don't even need to talk to liquidity providers. We just need to go and get distribution get more customers.

>> Like it changes the whole game. >> I I and you know there's a really succinct way to put this that we say all the time on the show which is liquidity begets liquidity. >> Exactly. And that world market point of view is when you take liquidity and you you know do a good job with it, you protect it and it continues to grow and it continues to scale that liquidity ends up becoming really really large and subsuming like all of the global liquidity out there. >> Correct. >> And especially now, you know, we're in a position where we are getting a little bit more regulated. There's goods and bads. There's trade-offs with that. One of the trade-offs and the pros is that you end up with a tokenized asset class that was never before part of this composable liquidity network. Exactly.

And that's that's tokenized equities. And that's a $27 trillion asset class. And now that is liquidity that is coming in and combining with the existing liquidity that you know is onchain with crypto native assets. And so >> you know we've unlocked the next sphere of liquidity that can be get more liquidity and this thing is just going to continue to grow. And I think previously this wasn't, you know, financially this was always the most efficient way to do this, but it was an engineering problem. Sure. >> We weren't able to compose this liquidity together until we had the likes of a blockchain and therefore and then smart contracts and then you know these these different modules that could plug into one another and ultimately

that's where we are today. The reality is that you know a uh you know if you if you start from you know just put it this way you know Ethereum and Salana are more composable than like Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley. So like previously these things were more disparit and you might say that this liquidity isn't as composable as it could be because they are on different blockchains but the reality is that the current state of the onchain economy is more composable than the previous state of the disparit brokerage economy and so we're moving in the right direction. interoperability is going to continue to improve, right?

This composability is going to continue to improve and this is going to be get even more liquidity because it's even more efficient. And so I I think that's absolutely the case. We're going to continue to see this. This is going to continue to subsume even more asset classes and they're all going to end up on chain. And I think ultimately that is like one world market where liquidity congregates and then you plug in what we heard from Valor and it's you know different frontends that are regulated in different ways different jurisdictions they provide KYC and AML different distribution channels you know telegram is a front end valor is a front end centralized exchanges you have all these different portals >> but they all you know they all give you

uh uh this interface or media into where the liquidity congregates and that's just onchain. Doesn't really matter what chain because it's going to get increasingly composable. So yeah, I I think that's the right mental model. Uh that's the right model of the liquidity world that we live in today. And I think it's going to get increasing increasingly composable, increasingly liquid across all the asset classes and increasingly distributed to everyone in the world. If lighter and hyper liquid to get CFTC licensed sexes are going to lose their market share fast. Yeah, I would be interesting to see how that happens. Be interesting to see how centralized exch if centralized exchanges if there's a transition of just like moving their their books on

chain. That would be that'd be a very very strong signal. So guys, we've got an AI supercycle episode coming up here um with Leo Fan, the the co-founder of Cisak, the CEO. Um, we're going to talk a lot about AI, the state of the AI market. There's a lot going on between US and China. There's a lot going on with um, compute markets. There's a lot going on with the financialization of compute. There's a lot going on with open source versus closed source models. So, we're going to take a super quick standby. We're going to get Leo set up and we'll be right back with AI Super Cycle episode number 43. See you guys in just half of a minute or so. 30 seconds.

[music] >> [music] [music] >> If you're serious about crypto, this is where you need to be. The rollup will be broadcasting live from the Rare Evo Expo floor on day one. [music] Welcome back to AI Supercycle, [music]

our premier AI show airing every single week presented by Near. We cover the ins and outs of decentralized AI, privacy, and the future of this massive technology. Near is the blockchain for AI and the execution of AI native apps. You can check out Near's latest AI product at near.ai. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. >> All righty, guys. Welcome back to AI Supercycle episode number 43, our premier weekly AI show powered by our friends at Near. Visit near.ai near.com to get started on your onchain journey.

Start using their private inference tools and more. Fully quantum proof release happened recently. Today we have Leo Fan, the founder of Seisic, a full stack compute network turns GPUs, AS6 and Spare Compute into uh a variety of different assets uh focusing on verifiable AI. Leo is a Cornell CIS PhD um and a deep researcher in both the ZK landscape as well as AI. Leo, good to have you back as always. The state of AI is uh quite rapidly shifting. Uh there is new sectors being created, memory, storage, compute, inference. There's investing happening in the stock market that's going crazy. There's the national there's the national nationalization of

AI between the the US and China. There's the compute bubble. There's the open source versus closed source. There's just a lot to cover. Leo, good to have you, man. Thanks for joining us. Hello. >> Hey. Hey. Hey. How are you? And like last year a lot of like afterwards like we were here to throw them out. Yeah, beautiful, Leo. Well, uh, great great to have you back. I guess just to start off, man, this is what the people want to hear about. There has been a release of Kimmy K3 model as of late which is challenging the assumption that the value and the pricing structure of of inference and compute uh both but primarily the actual intelligence that you're paying for with a given model is

significantly overpriced by the labs out west in San Fran and the frontier labs are kind of in this race to uh figure out the best way to kind of rival what's happening out in China meaning that there is a lot of sim similar intelligence being produced at a significantly lower cost with these open- source models and it's kind of causing a lot of rhetoric around is this AI bubble over because we've you know gone through this token maxing phase and people are really just looking for answers. Leo, from your perspective, what is happening right now with the pricing of these models and all this intelligence as it relates to the open source kind of push out of China and the frontier labs pushing back against these

models and at the you know at the expense of their profit margins they would like to keep their dominance. >> Yeah. So to be honest as a as a like grad student like coming out of China like I honestly I don't think like right now the open source model like from China is like catching up with the close source model like from from the United States. Yeah. As you know like although like the Kimmy or like the deep thick they are like catching up but there are still like some gap there like probably like several months gap there like to to be catch up with with the latest latest model from say like open AI or anthropic you can always like engineer this like model like the the say like Kimmy or like deepse to be like perform like very

well in some like benchmarks but like if you do it like in like very broad way like to do it like in in in the different task like I don't think it's still like right now on the same part like for the like US like closed source model. So which means like I don't think like right now the bubble is over and it's still like several months like we are like catching up like from the open source model. Yeah. So that's uh like we try a lot like we we we we get like a lot of like this like native model from China like I and based on this model based on like our experiments all the for all the like different task and I

like right now still like several months gap uh between probably like you can see like Kim right now is like on the uh on the same level of like oper 4.8 eight but it's not as good as like fable five like in like I mean like in general task like of of course you can engineer this like model to be like perform very well like in some task but like if you want to do it like in your general task then I I don't think it's like on the same part yeah >> and and let's talk about how how these models are affecting the compute market because right now you know there was a ma Kimmy came out there was a massive influx of users that went over there and

started using it. Um, and then they had to shut down because they realized that their servers were getting maxed out. You know, there there was, you know, they couldn't com keep up with the compute demand. And so they didn't just didn't have it in order to supply. You know, you guys are on the compute side. Um, and the theory is that like, hey, why am I going to pay for the premium compute of, you know, one of these frontier models when, you know, in a couple weeks, you know, they're going to catch up and I can just use maybe, you know, maybe it's 5% degragated performance, but it's like 50% or 80% degragated cost, right? And so, how does this look on the compute side? I would imagine that every time there's a frontier model comes out, everything gets maxed out, right? And then there's

a compute bottleneck. Do you think compute is still the bottleneck or has it been commoditized? What is the how does the compute market react when there's a new model that comes out? >> So I would definitely say like there is like a huge like bottleneck in the computer site. Yeah. Since like if you use like the latest GPU card to train the model, you still have to use some like some other car to inference like based on the train model and the inference car will be like stay close to the uh you users to have a nice like user experiments. Yeah. So like for that one like if you try the Kimmy like the native model from Kim you can see like

the response response time is like very very long and and also like the token token price I I would say like is on the same price on the same level of like oper 4.8 probably like is probably like a little bit like close to like fo 5. Yeah. So like which means like if we have like enough computing resources since like Kim is like a open source model we can download the open world and then we run it by ourselves and then we do all the things by ourselves. we can generate a token for for the users. But right now we cannot do that since like the the model is like very large which will cost a lot of like a varants to to do the inference like based on the model

and as you can see like right now the memory and also the the GPU cars in shortage which means like we only cannot get enough computing resource to do them inference like even if we have the like I mean like the open source like model there like we cannot have like enough like resources to do the model like like Cyc decentralized AI which means we are like using a lot of GPU cards to generate tokens for our products and for the products which will be consumed by our customers but we actually we cannot get like enough GPU card to do the inference like for our customers which will cause this like shortage.

>> Yeah. Okay. So there's a a shortage of GPU cards that is causing an inference shortage. I is is that correct? Yes. Okay. And so those GPU cards being in a shortage causing less or a shortage of inference causing the price of inference or intelligence kind of you know effectively to go up. Um, and so you're saying that even though there's this significant progress happening on the open- source models from China, they're still, you know, equivalent to, you know, the Kimmy K3 might be equivalent to the Opus 4.8, but not Fable 5. But you're saying that that's not even the problem for the cost of the

compute. The problem is not about the intelligence at that inference level. The problem is about the shortage of the GPU cards that is leading to the expense the price of those going higher and thus the price to even obtain that intelligence is thus higher because you have to get the GPU card and then you know get access to that inference. Am I is that kind of right? Like like Yeah. >> Yes, that's right. So actually like in addition to the GPU card, you need also need to have like enough memory to store the like the models like locally to do the inference like I I'm like if I remember correctly like Kim K3 have like 2.5 t like parameters which will cost a lot

of like memory to store all the parameters like inside to do the inference. So that's another problem like in addition to the G GPU shortage. So like you need to have the GPU plus like the memory like to get the like I mean like the nice like inference results like to for people to validate that actually like Jimmy is like Kimmy is like doing like actually like better than oper like 4.8. >> Yeah. Okay. I see. And so th this is something that we saw play out in the market right because initially this started out with like okay AI is a huge opportunity the mega cap stocks like the Googles and the metas and the Microsofts these are the hyperscalers and they were

going to you know raise money to go build out their AI infrastructure then once they got that money from executing these bond sales they started spending all of that in the market in order to buy up all the infrastructure that they needed the raw materials that they needed to create and produce this intelligence right and and basically you know uh create these tokens and so then they started you know spending on RAM they started spending on memory they started spending on the semiconductors and and all of this right and we saw that take place in the market I'm curious like what comes next right we saw the growth of the hyperscalers we saw the growth of the frontier model companies this happened in the private

market and the public market with hyperscalers. Then we saw this rotation where all this capital expenditure went into the memory you know [snorts] industry. They went into the semiconductors. Now once you know they start to put this capital to work the memory companies and the semiconductor companies now they need to go buy raw materials in order to produce more semiconductors and and and more memory. What is the raw material that is used in order to create the semiconductor? Is it silicon? Is it like what what what is the next step in the supply chain where the memory companies and the semiconductors are going to

start to allocate capital. So like before like moving to like manufacturing like more chips, I would say like actually we can use some like the current probably like not the latest chip to to also to deliver the same results if you like dive into the engineering effort like more like for for for instance like if you want to like say like run like IPS V4 like pro which is like open source model like the latest the the strongest open source model before Kimmy coming into the place like yeah you can use like 1490 GPU card to do the like same delivery and like BC

say like 300 cards. Yeah like you can use say like probably like 16 149 GPU card to deliver the same results like which will be like the same like from this like eight like B200 like GPU cards. So there are like a lot of like engineering effort we can dive into to deliver the same result with say probably like the current or the not the latest uh the hardware like we we got we we can still deliver that but so that's for the inference part but for the training part we still need the latest GPU car to get the best result like coming from the the training but after the training like you can use some

other say like another native GG GPU card to do the inference. So that's so there is a gap and we can use a gap to deliver the best results. So, so that's like something like before like moving to the uh to the like new chips like for the new chips I would say like right now like we are moving from like 5 nanometer to 3 nanometer or even like 2 nanometers there and yeah it's not about the materials it's like about like how we how you can [snorts] have like very advanced uh cart on the chip to make sure like you can you have a very precision like things like to cut the

chip to cut the things like in the in in in the thing like the the figures like in the diagrams you want and then you can deliver the results and of course the the yield or the like the I mean like the uh positive of the chips will be still like as high as say like the like 90% from the some like previous like uh notes So like how we can get that part how we can use a very advanced note to do the chip cut compared with something like five nanometer. So that's the bottleneck. We still want to get a very high yield. We get want to get a very

high positive results >> and we don't know that and the materials is not a very much like bottleneck. we can always get the like the real chip like from the sand. So that's not something like we worry about like but how you can use the current precision to get the very nice like chip out of the say the the wafer. So that's something like we are like more concern about >> yeah you know I'm curious about something else with regards to the AI rollout. Who do you think seems more prepared to for this AI rollout? US or China. China's got a ton of of nuclear power plants that are approved to start

building. The US has been far slower to approve nuclear energy. There's obviously other kind of resources like copper um and some other kind of rare earths that are becoming uh kind of popular and wanting to be acquired by governments and uh private companies. How do you think about the roll out here globally whether it be US, China, Europe, etc.? How do you think about the advancement of this technology? who's best prepared and suited to kind of roll all this out at scale. >> Okay, that's a very >> risky quick question to ask.

>> Okay. So, >> well then we can we can just move on if you want. >> Yeah. So like I have like some very wild prediction. Yeah. Since like I as you can see right now like the US like the the states they have like open AI or like anthropic they are like have this like closed source model. It's closer will like attract like more users to to it and more users will like attract more capital to it which will like causing this like flying wheel. But there's then there's like the the previous slick where like deep think they show like you can actually use the open source model to get almost the same result like from from the closed source model and then and then like the I mean like the most

recent one coming from from Kimmy which also show that if you can use like say the open source model to get almost like the nice result from the co- source model which I actually like I think like will cause some a norm for the US companies. They will think probably like they can like dive like more into like how they can how they can like doing the exploration on the research sides like for the model instead of doing some some like marketing or like access control to say like how the users can control their model like how they like want to buy this like users like to explore like more on the research side instead of

like more on the like marketing side. So like in that way then they can like compete like since like the Chinese company they just open source like all the all the way there like you can just download you if you have like enough like GPU resources you can just run the model but for the US like they like all like they are like opaque to to the customers. So I guess it will like the competition between this like two countries will like be like better for the customers as customers like we are like using the latest model. We are like like doing the best leverage on the components to get the best result of of ours. I I I would say like I don't have a like

prediction for now. >> Yeah. But like this like competition between the two countries like will be like very good like for our customers to explore. It has some like very nice space for us to deliver the best results like for our C customers. >> Yeah, I think I mean I think we agree you know I'm curious what your thoughts are on some of these um compute financialization happenings. So, you know, Koshi uh launched this daily compute product where you can speculate on the hourly price of a Nvidia uh computer for uh each day. There's going to be there's compute pers that

are starting to come up. Like what do you think about and maybe you could explain to us the different actors who kind of make up the compute supply chain and why having the ability to like hedge your costs or the price of compute or go long or short as a company involved in the AI supply chain makes sense. Like maybe you could just kind of explain and give us your take on the financialization of compute as a new asset class. Some people are saying that it it may be the biggest derivatives market in the world in the next couple years.

>> Yeah. So like as I say we have this narrative called computer farm. So computer which means you can financialize or commercialize like your hardware but it's like very different from like they say like the deep pin like the deep like it's just you own the hardware but you don't know how to program the hardware like for different like uh uh computing demand. So that's a very big difference. The computer file announced people announcing like the user like I mean the computer providers which own this like hardware to use some like native software to program their hardware to suit for like different computer demands say like for

say like for for instance like for like previously like like the majority of like computer demand is comp coming from the zk proof generation But I think you can see like uh since the the layer tools they like declining like we are shifting a lot of like our computing providers to to the AI providers. So the AI providers were still like having the same hardware but they run running like different software to provide the same like this like AI tokens to say like SCOPS or a lot of like AI products on on on scake they like still like making a lot of like profits probably like they

are like only the same hardware but they are like running different like software to still getting like a very nice yields. So computer like in our opinion like will be how you can pro program how you can incentivize like people who own their like hardware to to divide to devote their like hardware into like new say like emerging like um markets. Yeah. So like as a as a part as a project in this like market like CIC is like doing our best to to like to adapt to to the market to trying our best to get the most uh out of like the yield of the

power owners >> and and what is the opportunity here like uh say we have some you know GPUs lying around or just you know a spare CPU MacBook right um you know this is compute that we can contribute to the network. Uh if someone missed out on mining bitcoin, can they, you know, start mining some tokens and get in on the game? What kind of yields can uh can we expect from these things? >> Okay. Yeah. So it depends on the category category of the hardware like say like if if you have a Mac and Mac as you can see it's like very uh like it's not very weak but it's like somehow weak in say like the var and also in the GPU

processing. So like in that way like you can use your like say like the uh your MacBook to do some proof zip proof generation and also to verify the zip proofs like instead of like doing some like uh the AI token generation since like right now if you want to run say like for this like AI models on your MacBook it will be like a very small model probably like it's like 0.5 or like point like probably like at most like one billion parameters model on on on your Mac and the like one one billion parameters like models will not like doing like very good in in the profit like for you like on on your

MacBook. uh but but if you have like a very powerful thing like in the GPUs like say probably like H like 100 or even like one A100 or like B200 this kind of like GPU cars of course you don't want to use that to do the they capable of generation so that will be like a waste of your like the hardware you will use probably like use that to do some like AI training or like AI inference which will generate a lot of like tokens like for like I mean like the AI tokens instead the crypto tokens. So you can use the AI tokens like to get a lot of like profit. So it all depends on like what kind of the hardware you you want. Like in science we have this

like infer branch will coming up soon. So you can use a info bench to to test your hardware to find out like which hardware like which model you are like you are getting the best based on your common hardware. So I would say that that's like a very great way to to find out how you can get the best of your power. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Leo, last thing from us, I just thinking about where where the financialization of compute is going. Do you think that this could be one of the largest commodity derivative markets in the world? Oil, gold, forex trading for example, these things are massive markets. Do you see that the do you see the derivatives market for compute growing significantly to rival some of

the largest commodity markets in the world? >> Yes, I I do see that like I see a exponential growth of like the market for I I mean the market for demand of computes. Yeah, as I just previous mentioned like the models are are going like larger like to train this like larger model like you need like like the the like like more powerful like cheaper cut to train the large model and after training you still need a very powerful Jupiter card to do the inference for this like very very powerful model. So like I I so at least like in the say probably like coming like one year or two like I don't see any like a

declining like in the uh in the demand for for computing. Uh yeah so that's like all due to the uh increase due to the demand of the the AI computation. >> Yeah Leo, thanks for joining the show today. This has been AI Supercycle episode number 43 with the co-founder of Seis on the state of the AI market today. US China compute financialization the inference battle and more. Leo, thanks for being part of the show. Um and uh keep building the in this financialization of compute market as uh as we both expect it to grow significantly.

>> Thanks. We'll see you next time. >> Thanks. All righty. Le see you soon. Thank you. >> All righty. It's happening, Rob. It's coming home. The financialization of compute is happening and it will continue to. So, pretty good segment there, Rob. Um, you saw some breaking news, didn't you? >> I think we got to get I think we got to do some breaking news. I think we got this regularly scheduled program for some breaking >> news. Let's go ahead over to our breaking news segment.

>> Yeah. I mean I mean what >> news Rob Vlad has been hacked. >> I still have a screenshot here. >> Yep. Vlad has been hacked. The CEO of Robin Hood had his ex account hacked promoting Vlad Hoodcoin. I was 70% bundled on bubble maps and is a complete complete um >> scam.

>> Scam. Yeah. I mean, there's no way to put it. >> That is a rug and that was posted from the CEO of Robin Hood uh with a with a contract address. Um >> not cool. I saw the deployer was able to extract at least 18 ETH uh from one of the screenshots in the comment section of that tweet. Uh that was up for over an hour. I don't know how they did not take that down sooner.

>> I mean, yeah, that's a public company that's a public company CEO uh getting the uh being welcomed to the memecoin casino. >> Yes. That is one of the two wolves that are inside all of us at any given time. >> I mean, when you are going full crypto memecoin tweeting, you you're just going to attract the people that are going to try to extract. So Vlad had his account hit. Seems like it's probably back now. The tweets down. Speaking of that, let's get into the next piece of news. Hype Hood and the crypto bull market from our friend Matt Hugan. Um Matt is a Bitwise uh CIO, CEO of Bitwise. hype hood in the next crypto

bull market. Kind of ironic given the state of Vlad's X account today. Um but Matt in this piece effectively highlights the focus on crypto ads with with revenue, strong tokconomics, and the convergence. Um and he writes here, if the bottom is in, what will lead the next crypto bull? And the answer is clear. the convergence of onchain and traditional finance and crypto showing its early bottoming signs. Bitcoin up roughly 9% since July 1. ETF flows improving and sentiment turning more constructive. The next bull market theme is the onchain trady convergence, which is what Matt is arguing here. Stable coins tokenization 247 and

institutional DeFi. Hype represents a crypto native side. Hood represents a trady side. And that is the way that you want to structure your barbell portfolio for the bet on the next bull. Rob, I do not own any hood. Obviously own hype. What's your take here? >> Think you might get a good buying opportunity on hood after the CEO of the publicly traded company got hacked. Um, typically doesn't reflect well in the share price, but >> nothing really today on that. >> I think I mean this thing just happened.

It could have been real. could have been a real tweet, but it's not. I think uh ultimately shows some lapses in security. >> ISO just made 80K from it. Wow. >> Yeah. So, that's going [snorts] to that's going to do wonders for a hacker. Um, but look, we know that the most like the greatest benefit of this technology is going to come to those who implement the technology, right? >> Not necessarily the asset holders that have always been here, but those who implement the technology. And look earlier you know we had friend of the show from Valer Gian who talked about how you know he is not in a position

where he's going to launch a chain but there is a profit motive here and if you're looking at just the pure numbers the reality is that chains make a lot of money. >> Yeah. >> Are you going to churn through your user base and they're going to lose a lot of money on memecoins? That's a different conversation. Are you going to do that churn and then the institutions are going to be left and then you're going to see a ton of RWA volume? Again, another conversation. The reality is that there's a lot of money to be made here. Uh, Hood implemented this. I think there's a potential to not only grow their revenues with a new user base and a new asset class, but there's also a method to decrease some of their expenditures by making some of these settlement features and some of this

money movement more efficient. Yeah. >> So, I think it can do some pretty good things to their bottom line. And therefore, you know, if we're looking at just the pure fundamentals of this company and we're looking at their bottom line, >> I I would expect it to do well as one of the teams that is going to implement this technology. >> Yep. Yep. And they have a ton of other business lines, you know, so it's like it's not just that they're just doing crypto. That's for sure. All right, let's keep it rolling into the next piece here. Arthur Hayes founded BitMX, the pioneer of PERS. BitMX is shutting down. [snorts] I remember when I was trading on BitMX in 2017, lost it all at the end of the bull. Sad days for the boy. Um, but Arthur, I mean, they're

riding off in the sunset with 3,000 Bitcoin in the insurance fund. Um, and they're done. You know, BitMX token fell 96% on the news and it's over. The era of BitMX is over. It's kind of a bit of a nostalgic announcement for early per traders in the space. You know, if you were trading on BitMX, you were one of the first ever users of the perpetual future contract in [snorts] human history. So, you are a part of that lore. You are a part of that history and now it's coming to an end.

>> I didn't realize BitX had a token. >> Yeah, they do. >> You can just wind down tokens like that. >> I don't know if it was wound down. I think it was just Yeah, it was uh it was dumped to zero. >> Yeah. >> MX. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Sort of nostalgic like you said. BitMEX, one of the pioneers of the perpetual contract. Saw some misinformation floating around. They did not invent the perpetual contract.

>> No, >> they did popularize it. They also combined the perpetual contract along with 100x leverage. >> Uh but the perpetual contract was invented by someone named Robert Schiller. >> Yes, >> that's a real last name. >> Schiller. >> And the fact that Mr. Schiller invented the perpetual contract in I think the 1990s is just an almost unfathomable piece of lore. [laughter] Um >> Robert Schiller >> and of course uh you know took a little while for it to get popular. Uh it was you know originally

>> Yatsi. >> What's that? >> RIP Yatsi. [laughter] >> Yatsi. >> Yatsi. You're right, Edward. RIP Yatsi. All right, let's keep it rolling into the next piece here. Before I do, let me tell you about 1 in, your secure, efficient platform to tokenize RWAS. Whatever asset you're buying, swap it at 1in.com. 13 chains, no bridging, available now for you guys, wherever you are on chain. Coin Bureau says that Hyperlid's open interest perpetuals climbed to 11.5 billion, highest level since the 1010 crash.

Um, which is awesome. I mean that is awesome to see. Uh the fundamentals for Hyperliquid are continuingly continuously saying staying pretty strong. Um but obviously the market is having quite a bit of a pullback and you know you just wonder like for how long can HIPP3i go up? How long can um the total OI go up? The total volume of non-crypto pairs uh before the price has a rebound as well or at least a significant bounce. total open positions have climbed to over 320,000 and um the derivatives market on chain is fully back to where it was pre1010 which is saying a lot because that took a lot out of the market it was really really destructive and

now we're beyond it so bullish news for hype bullish news for the onchain derivatives markets and you know let's get this d let's get this oi to 50 bill Um, great tweet from Lorenzo of Arc uh, Invest today that said to this week was the first week that volume from non-crypto assets, meaning HIP 3 deployments and RWAs exceeded that of cryptonative assets, which I think is >> every other DEX. Hyperlid's RWA market alone was larger than the combined crypto perpetual volume of every other DEX.

Is that from the same tweet? >> Yes. Total DEX perpetual volume last week 79 billion. Hyperlink was 50 billion of that. Of that 26 billion was HIPP3 RWA trading. So the RWA it it wasn't Yeah. So it was it was very close to being it was very close or it was over it was larger than every other DEX combined. >> Wow. Yeah, just on rwas. His book is great irrational exuberance.

Who's that? Uh, Schiller, I think so. >> Yeah, I believe so. >> Yeah. So, [snorts] interesting times. Um, let's keep it rolling into clarity. Uh, Bitcoin magazine is highlighting that Bloomberg's intelligence view the Clarity Act has a chance of 60% chance of passing Congress. Uh the bill described it being as the one yard line reflecting growing confidence around final passage. The Clarity Act would clarify oversight roles between SEC, CFTC, ICOs, capital formation, securities, commodities, um segregation of customer funds, giving banks, asset managers, and crypto firms much more of a green light to do more in the space.

Let's hear about this from this reporter from CNBC or sorry from Bloomberg >> was just telling us digital assets are gaining alongside crypto stocks after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the Clarity Act is at the quote one yard line. Nathan Dean is senior government analyst over at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been closely tracking the Clarity Act and he joins us now. Nathan, what can you tell us about um what key hurdles have been uh crossed as a result that has put the clarity act perhaps on course for passage sometime soon?

>> Yeah. So, there are really two hurdles left and the first one that Secretary Besson is talking about is ethics language. Now, as reported last night that President Donald Trump has signed off on the ethics language that's in the text that we haven't seen, but it's important to note that the Senate Democrats have also not seen this. So, we are cautioning our clients that Senate Democrats may have a different take. So, just keep that in mind. The other hurdle that's out there right now is language tied towards essentially bringing crypto platforms like Coinbase and Robin Hood up to the same level of scrutiny like banks when it comes to bank secrecy act, know your customer and customer protections. But I think both can be resolved and that's why we're at a 60% chance that the Clarity Act can pass this year.

>> Uh this year, do you agree with the secretary that it's at the one yard line? >> I do. The reason being is the Senate is here for two more weeks and then they leave for the August recess. And if it doesn't pass before the August recess, look, it's going to face a very challenging future because September is going to be tied up with the government shutdown and then we're in election season. So what Secretary Besson is essentially saying right now is now is the time to vote on this. And I do think that Senate Majority Leader John Thun is going to schedule a vote and put the both folks on the Republican and the Democratic side of the aisle on record.

Are you going to be for this or not? And that's why one of those pressures I think eventually convinces enough Democrats to go along with it. >> Yeah. I mean I mean we've now I mean that's the state of things, right? Like we've heard that a couple times. Trump signed off on the ethics bill. The Democrats may not agree with it. They may not sign off on it. >> Um >> yeah, we got >> so I mean at this point we've seen the ethics language. We know what's in there. Um I think the result was that uh you know the uh protected officials in the government including the president, vice president and some others had to put their crypto holdings into a trust.

Uh they couldn't have control over it. Uh I think we also saw on there that uh there was absolutely no memecoin launches or crypto launches that were going to act as fundraising tools for members of the government. Um, so this was part of the ethics language as well. None of this um meant that Trump had to like give back the money that he made. He made over a billion dollars. >> No. Yeah, exactly. >> I mean, I I got something here as of an hour ago. Senator Elizabeth Warren says the latest Clarity Act draft fails to stop Trump from profiting from crypto, weakens investor protections, and should

be dead on arrival. I think that's just just factually incorrect. >> Classic Elizabeth Warren. >> Classic Elizabeth Warren. Um and so I think, you know, she she's off her rocker as as usual. >> Uh does it stop Trump from profiting from crypto in terms of the money that she already made >> or he already made? No, he gets to keep the money. But this should prevent or at least stop like you know him pushing this memecoin on people or you know there was also like this fundraiser or event in which the top like 12 holders or 25 holders of the >> went to the white house and stuff >> you know went to Mara Lago and were able to like chat with him and have dinner

with him >> and you know that was a real thing right and I think those are the sorts of things that are going to be prevented And so I, you know, that's kind of where we are right now. Yeah. I mean, I'm also realizing that like this isn't just the only thing that Congress is voting on in the next 10 days. Like, yeah, they just put through and I like a war military package deal. There's so many other industries that are going to be trying to put like bills and acts and things in front of the Congress desk that they're going to try to get them to vote on, right? It's not just the Clarity Act, even though that's what we hear all about. So, Congress has a very very busy couple of days.

Um, also I I've been hearing more and more about this, but like the government is just it's just going to shut down. That's there's usually there's like a big, you know, is it going to shut down? Is it not going to shut down? >> Yeah. >> It just sounds like it is like it's just a foregone conclusion this time. >> It's going to shut down. >> It's going to shut down. It says uh funding for the current fiscal year expires at midnight on September 30th. to prevent a shutdown at that time. The US of Representatives recently passed a short-term stop gap measure to designed to to fund federal agencies through December 4th. The legislation is currently in the Senate for negotiation.

I guess it sounds like that's probably not going to pass the Senate. Um, and it's going to get shut down, which is just going to slow things further. So, it really does seem like, you know, this thing has got to happen by August uh 10th or it's not going to happen at all. What is going to be the focus from cryptospace after this bill is passed? I mean, probably just the implementing of the bill, but then it's just going to be the next bull market. So, uh it'll be like, you know, surviving another dip or um you know, the dips the the dip has stopped dipping and then it's going to be kind of turning towards what you know, which stable coins are going to start to get a lot more issuance, which banks are coming in, what the per landscape is going to look like, getting

more clarity, no pun intended, on the different kind of sectors. I would say clarity act at the one yard line just like the Seahawks were. >> Seahawks definitely threw an interception there at the one. Should have handed it to Marawn. >> Yeah, >> went beast mode. >> Um, all right. Let's give a rolling pass clarity into our next piece. Quick shout out to Lei. Building infrastructure for crosschain swaps bridging routing across the onchain economy. Universal market access for digital assets. Visit lee.fi to learn more. Rob Haddock is arguing that attention is becoming the dominant currency across founders, investors, journalists, and public officials. This post suggests that even groups traditionally driven by money or

outcomes are increasingly optimizing for visibility. Hadock warns that chasing re reach can come at the expense of truth, originality, and long-term value creation. Interesting. What's the what's the takeaway here, Rob? >> I don't know. I'm looking if uh whether government shutdowns are typically bullish or bearish for uh the crypto market. >> Yeah, I'm about ready to pull my screen up as well. Let's cover this last tweet. I'm we're going to keep this thing rolling. >> Let's do it. Um attention I think makes a ton of sense. I mean, how long can you keep attention going? Uh you obviously need to direct flows.

>> Uh look, fundamentals I think can get you so far. Um, but you know, if you have a good product, that's what people want. You need to get that into people's hands. How are they going to find out about that product? Um, >> yeah. >> Yeah. I I don't disagree. Uh, I mean, yeah, distribution in this AI world is everything, you know, like we just have you can code anything. You can build anything. You can just what you can't do is get a customer. That's what we do live, guys. Like this clawed robot's not going to be able to replace Rob's smile. You all need new hairds.

Hey, come on, buddy. Take a lap. Take a lap there, buddy. Take a lap. >> Cat Joy. It's the first first time I've seen Catman Joy. I think we would have recognized that username. >> All right, let's pop over to the charts here, Leo. Um, and we'll do some daily equity after as well. Um, but yeah, we've got uh we've got some charts to go through. I don't know how you guys are feeling out there right now. Look, it's a little bit bleak. Is Bitcoin at support? Is it going to bounce? Is this rally over? Is are alts cooked? I mean, I think we're looking better than what could have been. But yeah, I mean, I also have this crazy Moonboy Zcash chart to show you guys [snorts] that I think

you'll like. >> Crazy Moonboy. >> So, here's my crazy moonboy Zcash chart. We'll start here. Crazy Moonboy chart. Drop this Johnny into logarithmic scale. Boom. Get rid of this garbage TA crap nobody even needs or uses. Um, so this is my Moonboy Zcash uh chart, guys. [snorts] And basically what I'm looking at here is a trying to get an average entry of like 500 to 400. Somewhere between 4 to 500

if possible or even lower would be epic. And I'm looking for a 2,000% move over the course of about a year. Stretch it out a bit longer. [sighs] About a year and a half. We're looking for a uh I mean this might be a little bit aggressive. Maybe we can just go like to here. This is what we're looking for here.

We're looking for entries here. We're looking for a crypto bull and we're looking for something that looks like this. You know, I just So, this is the moonboy math today. Rob, please give me a chance. Go XRP Catman Jovia. Oh, that all checks out. The hatred and then the XRP show. Nothing's new there. Um, yeah. So, I mean, look, I mean, we're looking at the precipice of the next bull. We're looking at things to buy and this is the moon math for Ze.

This is it. We're looking for a 1700% move over about a year and a half. structuring from about 500ish four, let's call it 4 to 500. I think this averages around 425. So if you just pull it up to where we're at right now, 510, looking at about a 1400% move over 535 days, getting us to I mean, if we really want to stretch this out, we're looking probably more something like this.

So about a year almost a full two years we're looking for about a 12x. Yeah. Wow. New type says. So the question is are you guys going to be able to hold this ride this? I I'm going home this weekend and I told Rob this already in the team after talking to my quant and I'm going to put a multiple six-figure position on CC cash and I'm going to vault it and I'm not going to touch it for two years. At least that's the plan. Make the plan, trade the plan. tried, you know, tried other plans so far this year and uh seemingly my fingers are the ones

getting me in trouble in the markets. So, I'm going to cut my fingers off figuratively here and size up and I'm going to vault it and I'm going to come back and see what happens in about 19 months. [laughter] What do you think, Rob? I find I find this analysis so uninteresting. >> I mean, why only 1700x or 1700%? Why not 15,000%.

There's zero logic. [laughter] There is there's no argu there's >> it's private, dude. It's private Bitcoin. Did you see? >> I mean, that's in two words. You actually said you said more in two words than you said during that whole rant. Dude, we are we are like we are like right here on Zcash right now. We're like somewhere here. >> Edward said buy everything in October, especially if government shuts down. >> Yeah, I mean that's the play, man. >> Um according to Google, uh government shutdowns are typically not bullish. uh they're bearish going in and they're bullish coming out. Once uh

once uh the government uh cracks a deal, typically it goes along with like a funding package for the government uh and they are, you know, back to work. Uh that funding package as well as the government going back to work is typically bullish markets. So everything sort of is lining up for like a like maybe not I mean if it's expected to close September 30th right it would be closed for you know some significant amount of October.

So yeah, everything is sort of gearing up for like a mid October sort of and I could I could see like people say October and then I think they're going to start to get that is going to start to get front run but now might be too early. Not to say that, you know, we're gonna get another leg down, but we're in apathy. And, you know, there's a lot of calls as to how long, uh, you know, when when we're going down, people like to call like, oh, we're going to get down this far, right? And they like to try to like, you know, predict bottoms in terms of like ex like capitulation.

But it's, you know, similar when on a time dimension if we're trying to predict when apathy is going to end. So it just feels like now we're in we're I think we're firmly in this apathetic market condition. We know bare markets die in apathy. Yeah. >> The only question is it's not if, it's when, it's just when. I don't think we're going that much lower. I think that is now consensus. Maybe there's one leg lower, but it feels like we're sort of just gonna range like bit. What is that? B That's Bitcoin there, right?

>> Yeah. >> What is the bottom? Like the pico bottom of this >> 575. >> 575. I maybe we touch 55, but there's like pretty significant like just you know interest at these levels. I'm just drawing lines. >> Just painting. I Yeah, I don't think we're going to go that much lower. I think this is it's just a matter of how long this gets drawn out. >> Um October would be a year from the top. October 10th would be exactly a year. I mean, it would just be absolutely serendipitous. Just magical. If October 10th was like to the day >> drawn randomly at the bottom at October

10th. I'm just going to leave this squiggle on there guys. I'm just going to leave that squiggle there. It could be completely wrong, but that would just be incredible if we did bottom on October 10th. Wouldn't even make any sense. [snorts] >> Anyway, let's look around here at some other things. >> Pump. >> I mean, we're in apathy. >> Looks great. >> It also seems like, you know, previous markets, it was like, all right, if Bitcoin just stopped going down and chilled out and got a little bit apathetic, alts would actually do well.

But that's not the case anymore. >> Yeah. >> Right. It's almost like we need Bitcoin to like lead this rally. Bitcoin even did bounce a little bit. Alts didn't do so great. So it feels like we need Bitcoin to lead. It feels like we're like really getting, you know, into the the apathetic part of the bear, which is the end of the bear transitioning into a bull. >> This would be pretty na pretty nasty. Little below 50. >> I mean, how low do you have that going? >> 49 50 >> maybe. That would be gnarly. That would be a nice shakeup for sure. That'd put me back on the streets.

[laughter] Ben Cohen approves this dubious TVA. You need some indicators on there. Yep, I feel you. Um, so I don't know, guys. I mean, this is the crazy thing of the market right now is this oil stuff. Uh, what is it like? CL like just straight ripping. I mean, this thing just had a bounce of all bounces. >> Yeah, we had uh I think Fijiao said that this >> 39%.

>> This uptrend I messed with my mic a little bit so I hope you guys can still hear me. Y >> um this uptrend was uh a little bit more treacherous in the oil market because the stock piles are running out. >> And so it's almost a little bit curious like why Trump is letting this run, you know, why we're not bending the knee a little bit, why we're not, you know, publicizing some great deal with Iran. Because right now oil at 100 is usually around the time when things start um things start looking like a deal is going to be made. Yeah, I mean this is crazy. That's a hell of a move.

>> So, hell, >> you might be looking into the weekend is typically when things uh >> Yeah. The other issue is this. The capital flows guys been saying that there's a change of structure and he's expecting and people are expecting this little uh stock pullback to like these levels here. >> Okay, I can see it. We were looking yesterday at like um this you know the yesterday's candle was looked pretty strong and then this this performance day from the NASDAQ really kind of looks pretty bad.

>> Yeah. Bitcoin was doing well. It started to die. >> Still is. Yeah. you know, it started to negatively correlate with NASDAQ. >> Just briefly, >> I think that's actually I I think there's there's something, you know, you can point to TA, but I think there's something fundamentally to discuss here where, you know, the rest of the altcoin complex is trading more like risk on tech stocks and they are risk tech stocks and Bitcoin is not. Um, sometimes Bitcoin gets treated as a risk on tech stock, but it's starting to trade more like uh uh inflation hedge. And this is like a really really fundamental because Bitcoin oscillates. It trades, you know,

sometimes it trades like a risk on tech stock, sometimes it trades like a, you know, al- alternative asset class inflation hedge. The fact that it's getting treated more like an alternative asset inflation hedge means I think it will start to diverge not only from altcoins but also from the NASDAQ and the rest of the tech industry. So I could see a scenario here >> where stocks correct. Tech gets hurt. Altcoins get hit. >> Yeah. >> Bitcoin doesn't. It holds like that 62 64 level.

>> Yep. >> Right. It holds strong and bounces pretty hard negative in a negative correlation with the rest of the NASDAQ and I could see how NASDAQ and altcoins trade in unison. >> Yeah, I mean that would be the bottom. >> One more one more big move down, maybe new lows, maybe not. Stocks pull back and that's that's it. That's the bottom. That's that's that's the end of it. >> I think so. And I think going into a paradigm and I think look I mean you know the mention about attention and you know how that directs flows and everything was a tweet before this like there is a real element to that where all of the politicians in the world both the Democrats and the Republicans are both complaining about the spending of money. Yeah.

>> They're just they happen to be you know pointing at each other blaming each other for why that's getting spent. But the reality is that the money is getting spent. That's what all the attention is getting focused on when the government gets shut down. All the attention is going to be focused on the amount of debt, the amount of the budget, how we're going to have to approve this new budget for the US government, how that's going to cost so much money and it's all inflation, inflation, inflation. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, right, is going to correct that and become like the exit, the escape hatch for that narrative. So, I could see a scenario where Bitcoin just holds the line. you're gonna get like headwinds if the equity market does correct and I think that could take alts lower but I don't think it would affect

Bitcoin nearly as much as it would affect alts nor equities. Yeah, >> Bitcoin holds up >> going into this attention uh on you know the printing of money in the national debt. Yeah, >> Bitcoin does, you know, even if it's if it's it just meets the headwinds and it just holds steady, I could I think I could see those two narratives just offsetting one another holding this range. And once we get through like this government shutdown, we approach more of the midterm y >> uh rhetoric and we get through some sort of equities correction, that's when I think Bitcoin leads >> out of that and alts follow.

>> Drill, baby. Drill. Drill that oil. The hacker of Vlad have made 974,000 on a token that post on his X account. There's only a 3 mil topper. Yikes. Insane. >> I don't have much else. I feel like I've I've cemented the thesis in my own mind. Um, >> equity is correct. >> National debt rhetoric. Alts trade like equities both correct. Bitcoin holds steady and uh leads us out of this bear maybe >> couple weeks or a month before alts follow suit.

>> All right guys, let's get into the Daily Equity Show uh powered by our friends at Dinari as we kind of come to a close here. Um today's Daily Equity is about bonds. So Rob, I think you can just kind of follow up on what you're saying there. Let's get into it. >> [music] >> imploding across the globe. Bonds are imploding. Equities are next. Great. Martis says if you look at this, the 10-year is rising. Um, equities may be the next market to price if higher yields keep tightening financial conditions. Obviously, the oil as well.

I mean, look at these uh uh bonds across the world. I mean, they're just the yields are just pumping. Uh, the 10-year, the two-year across Australia, across um Germany at 3.2%, Australia 10 10 years at five, the US 30 years at 5.15. I mean, it's just it's just it's it's it's happening. I mean, the risk rising sovereign yields are direct threat to equity multiples. If bond markets keep selling off, stocks may face pressure, tighter liquidity, higher discount rates, and weaker growth expectations.

This kind of aligns with the thesis of a bit of a slower September for stocks in general. Um, as as we've just said, and so Rob, I mean, just kind of building off what you were just saying, what's your read on this? >> Um, well, I think this is going to tighten financial conditions. Um, and so we have to I I mean I think it's the I think this is aligning with what we were saying previously. >> Yeah. >> Um, so let's see. I'm getting some intelligence, >> right?

>> Um, and so two-year and 10 year going higher. This is consistent with the bond market all across the globe. >> Yep. >> Um, you know, we already see kind of the magic eightball in the chart. TA is saying that, you know, equities look like they're kind of due for a correction. >> Yep. >> Um the government shutdown is sort of a different thing, but you know, there is potential confluence between what we could see from a narrative point of view. If we're just looking structurally, >> yeah, >> um what's happening in the bond market is going to lead investors to sell the treasuries because when yields go higher, bonds go lower. And so the bonds are effectively crashing in price.

>> Yeah. >> People, you know, even though even if they think they're going to get, you know, this percent over, you know, so many years, it's not worthwhile to hold on to these bonds right now. >> Um, and so they're going to get sold off, uh, which is going to, you know, bring the prices of these bonds lower and push the yields higher because in order for you to hold on to a bond that's lower, you're going to want a higher yield to hold it. Um, and so that's kind of what's happening right now. Uh, what does that mean for equities prices? It it means tighter financial conditions. Uh, these guys are just not going to be able to get cheap capital. They're going to have to pay a lot in interest in order to get capital.

>> Yep. >> Um, investors demand more compensation because inflation could erode returns. So inflation expectations rise. That's typically what we see on the long-term time time horizon. Uh 10-year, you know, going past upwards of 5% is not great. Does not bode well. Inflate it. It's, you know, signaling higher inflation over the long haul. >> Uh so instead of lending the government money at 4%, investors now demand 4.6%, maybe 5% if we get to that level. Um, and so the investors in these bonds are saying, "Hey, government, if you want money, and we know you want money because your government's got to shut down because it doesn't have enough money. [snorts] >> Well, we're going to want a higher yield." Yeah.

>> And that's going to mean you pay us more interest. >> Yep. >> Um, now um that's what's happening. And, you know, how do the equity markets and how do the crypto markets react to this? Um, I think it short-term bearish, long-term bullish. Um, I think Bitcoin transforming into this inflation hedge is exactly the anecdote of >> market of this market. I agree with that. Um but again we're sort of like you know the pendulum swings and so you know we're before we get to 100% inflation hedge and the way that people perceive you know this asset you know before we

get to 100% inflation hedge and 0% risk on you know tech asset maybe it's 9010 right and we need to get all the way to 100 zero and so >> um again short-term bearish long-term bullish I think equities might correct Bitcoin just kind of holds steady as more people start to realize that it is the inflation hedge that people are looking for in this market and uh it is the quickest to react and uh you know once it does then it's going to signal to the rest of the market crypto is you know the when I say crypto I mean the altcoin complex is the next to react y um and then I think equities react as well but we don't know how deep that you know correction goes uh but I think typically it will correct and it will be

the slowest to correct out of all. >> Yep, I agree with that. And Bitcoin is also kind of like like leads it usually. So >> yeah, >> that's our daily equity today, guys, powered by our friends at dinar. Visit dinari.com for tokenized US equities and public markets on chain. They have their space XD live spot trade on Hyperlquid and more coming. The sectors blowing up. Check out dinari at dinari.com. And that pulls us to what I think is close to the end of the show here. Um, soundboard guy, I need you to find the sound bite from Spongebob where a citizen says, "Oh man, this guy stinks.

New type, man. You are something else, man." Oh god. Charles Hoski is now conding comparing Cardono to the rise of Anthropic. Interesting. Interesting. >> Oh boy. Andy, we've got one more show before you go to Argentina. What do you want to What do you want to close? >> Dude, let me just show you what's happening right now in Argentina. Oh my gosh. You're going to be shocked. In Chile. Check this out.

Check this out, guys. This is insane. I've never seen I've never been prepping for a ski trip and there's about to be more snow and powder than I even know like what is even possible to do with it. Like I'm scared and I'm legit scared. I don't know what to do. I mean there is just an incredible amount of snow. Like wow. Look at this. And pull it up. Show you guys real quick as we sign off. 12 feet of snow.

How close is this to where you're staying? >> This is like couple hours north. So, higher elevations. >> I lost you in the meat. >> What? Couple hours north of where I'm at of of where I'm going. Higher elevation, so a bit better snow. Um, but I mean it's nuts. Like I mean it's just it's insane. I mean check this out. You see this?

>> Just he's just in there. >> So these these resorts are fully just um fully just uh like basically You know, you can't even you can't even get out of your resort. It's so freaking Look at this one. Look at this transformation. Have you ever seen something go from looking like a desert six days ago to this? It's the same area.

>> That's got to be good timing to go ski down there. It's fresh powder. Couldn't even be better. The question is is do we change the itinerary and head bit more north into Chile to get more of this? Let me look at this. Look at his beard. Nah, it's all good. It's probably a good move. >> Super El Nino. Yeah, N. I agree. >> Yeah, baby.

Like, are you kidding me? Are you flying to Argentina? No, I'm I'm going to walk down there. New type. What do you mean, buddy? Are you guys posting the Vlad interview this week? Uh, soon. >> The good one. >> Jeepers Batman Super El Nino W's show. Yeah. So, that's what I got on my on my plans here, guys. Rob's going to run the show next week. Um, and yeah, it should be awesome. So, we got one more show tomorrow. We got a bunch of good guests. Uh, finish out strong. Finish out this week in the market strong. Although things do look a little bit worrying across the board.

Finish strong in the markets, finish strong on the week, finish strong on the charts, finish strong this month, finish this bare market strong, guys. We're not going anywhere. We're right here with you guys. W's in the chat. Good show today. Rugrat, I know if he was watching today, I didn't see him in the chat, but he'd be ecstatic about the price of Bitcoin and what's happening there and the price of Zama. >> Really? The price of Zama. >> On his boat. >> Yeah, he's on his boat right now. >> He's in his in his helicopter going private jet shopping. >> Euro summering. So guys, Debbiey's in the chat. Thank you for being a part of the show today. As always, it's a pleasure. We are live here from the financial capital of the world. If you're watching on YouTube, throw us a like, throw us a subscribe. We really

appreciate it. goes a long way for us. See you guys tomorrow from the financial capital of the world. You're watching the rollup. >> [music]