Kyle Reidhead on whether this crypto cycle will beat the last

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's as comforting as hearing let's just order pizza on a Friday night I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Kyle reidhead co-owner of milk Road and head of research at milro Pro we are going to discuss is this cycle going to be bigger than the last now historically each Bitcoin cycle has had less returns than the previous one and if we were to match previous Cycles then we only have about a 2X left to go from Bitcoin for from here so either that's it we only got a 2X for Bitcoin from here or are we breaking the norm we're going to take a

look at some charts to understand which way it could go in this cycle and also stick around to the end because at the end we're going to explain why we don't use prices to dictate the top of a cycle and why we use indicators and we're going to talk a little bit about which indicators those are before we jump in guys the Milkman has lost his mind he is giving away the craziest sale of the year on milk Road Pro you can get 40% off this week only in celebration of Black Friday and if you sign up for the annual plan you get our crypto investing master class for free for free that's priced at $500 and we're going to give it to you for free right now so click

the link in the show notes if you're listening on YouTube hit the QR code and go Pro to make sure that you make well life-changing money in this cycle before we jump in we're just going to take a moment to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible do you own your data nope every post click and search you make is controlled and monetized by unseen Giants I've had enough it's time for navigate where their mission is to give back data ownership to you and share profits with you that's right money in your pocket how you ask first the navigate browser extension makes it easy to turn your everyday browsing into passive income second the data quest game where you can boost your earnings and help train their AI visit navigate.

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today Kyle how you feeling my man I see you looking at the charts all day we hit 999,000 today just before we started recording I know this doesn't come out for a day after but maybe by the time that this podcast goes live we finally hit 100K Bitcoin what a time to be alive what a time to be in crypto kudos to all you who are listening this podcast you were in before Bitcoin hitk and that's pretty sick that's a big deal that's a big deal on that note we've had incredible growth over the last few weeks on the podcast and on the YouTube channel so shout out to all the people that are new here that we have not had in the past thanks for showing up thanks for being here you guys are also still early so don't worry if you got some

fomo and you're feeling like you're too late you're not too late to the party we got a long way to go from here Kai let's start out he shakes his head as if we don't have a long way to go from here that's the question we're gonna answer today do we have a long way to go we are trying to discuss that let's just start with taking a look at past cycles and if you could just give us a breakdown of Bitcoin and past cycles and where we are in the current cycle based upon past Cycles yeah so for those that are new maybe haven't been in crypto before and even those that have it's always good to remember crypto moves or at least has historically Moved In This Very cyclical nature it is oddly basically every four years that we go from top to top and it

started I mean when Bitcoin first started but then our first sort of like top or peak in the market was 2014 was the first top takes about a year we come down to you know a bare Market we hit the bottom and then we go up and we this tight the the next cycle so the second cycle topped out 2017 took a year for a bare market then again we came all the way up 2021 we topped out took a year to come down almost identically every single time like even on this chart that we're showing Jay has up on the screen here like the green is the top the red is the is the bottom and then he has like the distance between and the days it's almost to the day it's actually insane like not exactly but very very close to to the day each cycle so then we hit the

bottom 2022 a year after around a year after the the the top in 2021 and now who knows we're back on the up again so is this going to be another four-year cycle we don't know historically it's been this way we tend to think it's following this pattern because liquidity has also been four years so Global liquidity meaning central banks around the world printing money are lowering interest rates they're sort of refinancing their debt every four years and so they have to print to pay off their debt every four years that's how it's been since like basically since the financial crisis of 2008 at some point that will stop but that's kind of what we believe is is driving these like cyclical nature of crypto another part of it is just like this is kind of just

how psychology works it's like something goes crazy everyone thinks it's going to change the world everyone wants to buy in everyone makes a bunch of money but then people sell eventually right the bubble pops and everyone kind of like leaves the space and then it takes a little bit generally about a year or so I guess for you know people to kind of things to bottom people to be like actually this thing's not dead we're going to keep building in here and people go oh the thing didn't go away wasn't a tulip from back in whatever that was thousands of years ago and it's like slowly people start to come back in So as a result the price goes up like this happens in other markets too not always in the same time frame but it's kind of what we've seen three times in the past in crypto maybe even four if

you were like here in 2010 2011 but like I don't I wasn't around then and so like we're sort of going through that same phase now and what we're wondering as we get to this point in the cycle close to 100K is are we going to have the same thing is this going to be another 4 year cycle if it is just based off the years it's looking like October is of 2025 will be the top now I have no idea if that happens right that is like maybe a base case but I'm not even sure that's mine but that's at least tracking the four years and so what we kind of Wonder as we look at these charts and a lot of people are doing this on Twitter is If October is the 2025 is the top what price are we going to be at by then is

it going to be similar to last Cycles as you said in the beginning the results tend to diminish cycle over cycle at least for Bitcoin and total market cap in general of crypto we don't get as big of an Roi each cycle we still have some amazing results you can still make a [ __ ] ton of money but like we'll show you some charts but basically you used to go up like hundreds of x's in the previous Cycles because we were so small we were going from like Millions to billions right uh and then billions to like trillions and now we're already at a what a three trillion dollar asset class I don't know what Bitcoin is but probably like getting close to two trillion dollar asset like we are not as small as we used to be and so it would make sense that over time we'll have

diminishing returns but that is the question we'll try to answer today but we are in our let's say fourth cycle in crypto uh depending on how early you were you could say fifth but we're pretty much in our fourth and um and the question is like how far does this go where did we go from here we we started last cycle so the high we hit last cycle was 69k which is crazy that that's the number we hit so funny H and we're already at 100K and and there's still potentially another year to go I don't know we'll see yeah I think uh there's so much to to dive into and break down here Bitcoin is at 1.95 trillion uh market cap just a follow up on that you brought up Roi so what is the return on your Bitcoin investment in each cycle if

you were to buy at different points and let's look at a few different points let's look at if you were Peak to Peak from the peak of one cycle the peak of last let's look at the from the bottom to Peak and then let's look post having because that's those are the three time periods that are always interesting to look at and let's look at how much are the returns diminishing so we can understand what we might expect this cycle and then that can lead us into is that what we think is actually going to happen why don't you start us off with the ROI on bitcoin from Peak to Peak yeah so this one's um it's quite interesting to look at these time frames again I don't think anything plays out the exact same we're not going to copycat any other cycle it's just nice

to look at these time frames and give you sort of a range of where things might go or how things have performed in the past and you can sort of make decisions based on what's happening in these moments and so if we look at Peak to Peak if we look at 2017 Peak from the one before that which I think was 2014 or 2013 whatever it was Bitcoin did a basically like a 19x from Peak to Peak so from the previous alltime High to that alltime high okay then we had the 2021 high of 69,000 to the 2017 high of I think it was around like four uh 20K actually is what it hit and that we had about a 3 like s X 3.6x let's call it maybe 3.5 some somewhere around there okay and then today we are already if we look back from where we are now based

off of the Peak from last cycle which was 69k we are already at about a one and a half and this chart was from a couple days ago I can't see the date on it but so like we were probably about a 1.6 1.7 maybe 1.8 from then already and so question is where do we go from there right if it's we're matching the last cycle then we've only got about a doubling left maybe even a little bit less of a doubling which is kind of wild because that means that Bitcoin only goes to like 150 to one like let's say 75k which is crazy because we're already so close to that right and maybe we have a year to go that's not much left now hey my base case and what we've always said in the show and especially in Pro

is we think Bitcoin goes to about 150 to 250k right that's just kind of a price prediction it's kind of random it doesn't really mean anything that's not what we're we're basing on but that's just sort of my guess and so like if we did hit the the 150k that would kind of match the last cycle maybe a little bit higher than that and if we go above it which we might um it means that we break the norm and we actually don't have diminishing returns and actually Bitcoin goes higher this cycle than last cycle that would be pretty wild it'd be unheard of we've never seen that in any cycle and we'll kind of show you only have two on this one we get to some of the others you'll see there's there's more Cycles we can look at yeah and I think um let's keep looking through the

charts but we're going to talk about why could it be different or what's different in this cycle cuz as you said every cycle is not exactly the same as the last and there's a lot of reasons why this cycle feels different and a sobering take so from two cycles ago the peak to Peak we did as I said like a 19x last cycle we did only 3.7 right so why do we think that we would get to even close to 3.7 or 3.5 or three right like we should be way less that's that was less than 50% like a 75% decrease diminishing returns like if we had that again like [ __ ] we'd already be at the High we be at the top now damn I hope that's not it but this is why you don't want to just like only look at charts

but it's just interesting to to see this you know what about if we look at Returns the ROI from bottom to Peak with any checkle yeah so if we look at bottom to Peak um I also have it pulled up here which by the way shout out to Benjamin Cohen for pulling out these uh these charts they're pretty great so if we look at bottom to Peak we had again the 2017 cycle to its bottom uh the bottom before that it went up 110x from the bottom to the peak that is that was a crazy crazy crazy bull market it just like never ended it was crazy I mean same time frame but it just only went up I mean there was crazy pullbacks but like it was a ridiculous bull market then last cycle from the bottom to the peak we went up 11x okay still pretty

wild and then currently from today from the very bottom to where we are today we are at about a I don't know what I can see what that actually is but it's like a six or 7x already I think it's six six might be a little higher there but so 6 or 7x already so we're again like we're a double away from meeing meeting the same numbers as we did last cycle so are we going to beat last cycle or are we going to do the same because if we are then once again we're kind of sit in that 150 to 200k range for the which which is so funny because like we're sitting here as if like doubling your money in the next year is trash investing you know like that's not good enough for us at all but it's not true like that is incredible

Returns on investing but we're bringing up this question because like it is a legitimate question when you think about your Bitcoin investment and we're at a point in the market when you might start to think like you want to go heavier risk on you want to allocate to bigger things and understanding this is really important let's look at the having time since the having because this one really I can't break this one down this one confuses not confuses but this would blow my mind if this ended up being this way yeah this one's a bit different so this is looking at okay the having point so every four years Bitcoin um a lot of people think that these Cycles happen because of the Bitcoin happening which is basically bitcoin's inflation rate goes down gets cut by like 50% and um every four years and it's somewhat in

line with these foure cycles and we just had it in was it may or April or whatever of this year and so generally what happens is the cycle really takes off after this happening usually like a month or two afterwards and so we look at there's four Cycles on this on this one here and if we look at the first cycle so cycle number one this like back in like 2014 it did a 100x from the Bitcoin having Point okay then the 2017 cycle it did a let's just see here it's hard to see these numbers about a 30 like 2x from the having and then we have last cycle which did about an 8X from the previous cycle or sorry from the from the having and then we are we are only about a 1.5x currently from when we

did the having in April so in this one it's actually a lot more bullish Outlook which is if we were just to match last second we still got like a five Sixx to go that put Bitcoin at like 500k now the reason why I don't like this one is this was already the first cycle where things did change we hit an all-time high before the having we've never had that in history before so we're comparing off of a much higher number so to do a 5x like we did last cycle doesn't really make sense because we were already so far ahead this cycle we kind of accelerated in terms of price action so that one's a bit of a weird one I don't know how that one plays out I'd like to I guess look more at the the the um the bottoms and the tops of previous Cycles

because the having one was just a little bit weirder or maybe this one's right and we are just tracking one hell of a cycle I don't know who knows yeah another question first Jay yeah okay so let's zoom out for a second when you look at these three charts it clearly sh tells you minus the happening chart which I agree I don't think that's the best chart to look at although I love I love it uh either we're close to the peak or like we only got 2x to go for Bitcoin or we're going to beat the previous cycle and this cycle is different which uh I feel like everybody says don't think it's G to be different but there are reasons to think it's gonna be different what do you think Kai do you think it's going to be different or do you think we're just gonna see the

same thing play out it's it's so hard to say I I I don't know if it's going to be different I think saying it's gonna be different saying it's going to be the Super Cycle it's never a good idea and one thing to watch out for is you're going to start to hear this more often as we get further onto the bull market so last cycle everyone said the same thing this is the super cycle this time's different we are not going to have a bare Market blah blah blah blah blah you know we have apps this time we've got nfts we've got real things we've got institutions coming in blah blah blah this time is different and and it wasn't different you know it turns out that markets tend to play the same way because it's based off psychology and it's based off liquidity um which

doesn't care about what's happening in crypto right and my assumption for now at least my base case is the same thing plays out now I don't necessarily know what that means in terms of return um but I think we see a similar styled cycle I don't think we go into this like crazy super cycle although I will make a case for why we might have an accelerated cycle I think later on here in this episode but at the moment we're kind of I don't know we're sort of tracking the same and like pre-cycle pre Euphoria which I think a lot of people are already in like I don't know we said we'd probably hit about 150k to 250k Bitcoin it seems weird to say it's only that much more now you know because we're still so early it's happened so fast and it's like there's all this

potential that can happen but you also got to remember that like as we get bigger like you just said we're a two trillion dollar asset it gets harder and harder to move the prices of that up and I know we're in the phase right now where it's like it seems like it's so easy to move up because we go up 5% every day in Bitcoin but last cycle that also happened right in November and December we hit our all-time high can't remember if was in October or November whatever it was we passed 20K and we doubled to like 40K in like weeks right and then we kept going and it you know it took until when did we our first top we had kind of this like double top last cycle but that first one was in like I think it was uh March or

something like that March or April and so like it it it didn't take it took like five months for us to go from 20K all the way up to like close to 60 69k right so like but then it couldn't go up anymore like that was kind of it and so like you have these periods where just feels like this thing is going to go up for forever right and all these good stuff's going to happen we're going to get good regulation and Trump's taking over and nation states are going to buy and we're going to be the Strategic reserve and like it's all great but like markets don't usually work that way there's a chance there's a probability you always got to have that probability which is why I say even when you think you're at the top or you're trying to take profits you never sell everything

because there's always the chance it just does go up for forever I just think it's probably very unlikely and it's just not generally how markets work so I don't know one thing we I I do think about a lot here is last cycle to me felt like it was a stunted cycle and and this is the thing the reason why I might think maybe it's not super cycle but we do outperform last cycle and that's because last cycle had a few weird things that sort of happened I'll kind of list some of them so we were in this bull market everything was and we were printing a ton of money and the problem that happened last cycle that didn't happen in the Cycles before it is inflation went to like I forget what it was like 10% in the US and and honestly globally it was this

high and we've never really had it go that high since like I don't know the 70s or whatever and that happened because of a Black Swan event because of covid where we had to shut down the the global economies and and basically stall the economy for like I don't know what was it six months some places was like a year where you couldn't go into work so that doesn't really happen and we don't have that this cycle and so what happened was inflation went so high because of that not because of the money printer or not because of you know anything else but just because of those supply issues that inflation was so high that we had to just crank up rates to the highest we've had them in like years and years and years and years right left to like five and a half percent or

whatever it was in the US and so that was a big reason why the bull market ended and um we kind of shot down back into a bare market right we also had this like issue around all of these centralized companies which were holding crypto that were sort of overleveraging it and when interest rates shot up because of inflation they were all kind of caught with their pants around their ankles and some shady [ __ ] happened and so people in the space saw that funds in the space institutions in the space and so they started moving and getting out of the industry pretty quickly they removed their capital and then we had that double top and the reason the double top happened at least in my opinion is because FTX started taking customer funds and like rep putting it in and reinvesting it right which was

crazy but that propped up the market and so we had this very weird like technically the bull market last year could have been cut short short and ended in like March or April it didn't though because we had this fraud that happened in our industry and so that was really weird and then the other thing I think of is we also were cut short in terms of um a lot of people got priced out and that won't happen this cycle because we got priced out because nfts was the big thing there's always a big thing that happens in a cycle so like 2017 it was icos the last cycle it was nfts this cycle it appears to be maybe mem coins I don't know but last cycle we had everything happen on ethereum and the to trade on ethereum was like a 100 bucks or 200 bucks so like that priced

out people and then obviously nfts had this weird dynamic to them where the prices went so high that like it priced out most of the market and so people are like well screw this like what am I doing in here so there was a lot of weird scenarios that happened last cycle that maybe stunted it and maybe we shouldn't have been as bad of a performance and I I say bad it was not a bad performance you could make a [ __ ] ton of money like remember the amount of x's I just said we went up but those are the things that make me think that maybe we don't have a super cycle I don't think that but maybe we still outperform last cycle in terms of results just because it felt like a bit of a stunted cycle also we didn't have ETF so

institutions although they were interested they actually couldn't come in last cycle so I don't know the other side to it though is with every cycle you feel like it should go up more because there's more apps and there's more institutions coming in ETC but as I said before the asset is so much bigger that it's now harder and so like just the fact that it's there's more people coming in there's more institutions there more use cases that generally just means it can still go up but not as much as previously so you know it's tough to say at this point could you give a probability like what probability do you think that this cycle is stays on track and performs in similar patterns as past Cycles versus what do you think the probability is that we go higher that we go higher and what are we what what

number are we saying and I guess the question is are we talking just Bitcoin or are we talking the total crypto market cap because so far we've only discussed Bitcoin we'll talk total crypto market cap in a second I would say the probabilties fairly high that Bitcoin beats last cycle and the only reason I say that is because there is a probability that we have a Bitcoin strategic Reserve in the US and if that happens maybe the total crypto market cap still ends we think it's Hits 10 trillion this cyle maybe that still happens but just Bitcoin dominance goes to like [ __ ] 80% or something ridiculous you know small chance but like that could happen but that that's basically like that one thing has to happen otherwise I think we're probably tracking somewhere between 150 and 200

same as as we've been saying okay okay so more likely more likely that we track small probability that we go higher if something like the Strategic National happen and honestly at this point you want to have the more bearish take you don't want to be thinking and hoping that it gets to 500k which is why when you said there's still plenty time left I gave the like I shook my head like ah it's not that it can't happen it's not it won't happen it's just like that's what's going to make you ride this thing back down to wherever we go in the next bare market right and so like you you wanted to be very bullish last year and earlier this year now you want to start to flip bearish and I'm sorry but I'm going to come on this podcast as I always do every week and I'm always so

bullish and like I'm probably going to start be getting more and more bearish as everyone else gets more and more bullish but that's for a good reason hopefully that's going to help you guys not ride this thing back down to the bottom okay let's take a look at total crypto market cap because I think that tells a very interesting story as well when we look at past Cycles when we look at past cycles and how total crypto market cap has performed how has that broken down yeah so total crypto market cap is an interesting one we are currently sitting at what is it 3.2 trillion if we look at the previous Cycles we went have 36,000 per from 2015 to 2018 this is bottom to to Peak and then the that was going from like what two billion up to 700 billion is crazy

and then last cycle we went up 3,200 okay and then this cycle we are already up what are what are we up here like 1300% no no that's the potential I think we're currently up like three or what do we say 4X I think it was we're we're up 4X y yeah up a 4X okay so 300% we think we get to about 10 trillion the total crypto market cap which would mean a 1300% increase from bottom to top so that would mean that we don't outperform the past cycle right so again who knows what happens here maybe Bitcoin it performs but total market cap stays the same right or or or fits the this like cycle of diminishing returns because I still feel like 10 trillion feels like the right amount here but Bitcoin only going to 150 just seems odd that we're

already at 100K but maybe it's just an accelerated cycle and that's just that's just all there is to it I don't know there's a lot of kind of weird things to think about here though this cycle we've never had so many freaking tokens in our entire life right so it's very it's um it's it's very different than any cycle before this last cycle we had a bunch of tokens but it wasn't that many tokens now we literally have like a I don't forget how many it is like tens of thousands of tokens launching daily at least the mcoin side of things and then we also have a [ __ ] ton of like actual Tech tokens like the the application tokens and L2 tokens and all that stuff which we didn't have last cycle we had a few defi tokens and that was like kind

of it other than l1's so this the first cycle where we have so many sectors right and so the question really is do these sectors do these tokens actually gain adoption this cycle and do they really get a lot of liquidity or does it remain like it always has which is like Bitcoin gets most of it you know eth gets a lot of it and then like soul and some l1s get most of it because like usually that's how it's been it's just l1s get all the liquidity and the rest of tokens are kind of whatever um there was a few tokens that did really well last cyle like Unis Swap and maker and and those and so the question really is you know what happens with all these tokens of the cycle and and that's what I'm still unsure of again this cycle where is it different well we have we

have Trump coming in who's probably going to make it legal to hold all these tokens last cycle institutions didn't matter where you were in the world you couldn't hold these tokens other than like some hedge funds like the big ones couldn't this cycle I don't even know if that happens this cycle like yes it's going to be legal when Trump comes in but like Trump doesn't come until January and it's going to take I don't know months years um there are funds that we talked about before that are already buying this stuff but it's a small amount compared to like the big like all the Pension funds around the world that start to buy this really they can only buy Ethan Bitcoin and so I don't know if a lot of these tokens get a lot of adoption outside of retail and I mean retail did this last year year

maybe retail even had more money last cycle than this cycle I would say because they had all those free stemy checks we don't have free stimy checks this time around right uh we're not printing a [ __ ] ton of money and so that's the thing where I'm like I don't know this it's a very different cycle different Dynamic um maybe just Bitcoin and maybe e if it starts to pick up a bid uh really really dominates here and that's what drives that total crypto market cap up which means Bitcoin really outperforms last cycle and so like that's a potential as well the key thing here is like I know I'm saying just a bunch of what ifs but where we're at right like you've got to pay attention to what's happening this cycle where is the capital flowing this cycle it's probably not going to be the same as

every other cycle that's the key thing in terms of where Capital flows but I think crypto total market cap still probably I don't see any reason why it's not around 10 trillion I don't think it's going to like crazy out perform again unless we get this strategic Reserve maybe Bitcoin goes to just like a gajillion uh market cap but we'll see when you think about your own investment plan and how to plan when you're going to take profits one of the most important things to do as an investor and also one of the hardest things to do it's so much easier to buy than it is to sell for some reason how do you know when we're at the top how do you think about that yeah I mean so first you never know and I think that's the first thing you want to like ingrain in your

head is that you are not going to call the top I guarantee you no one here is going to call it not even us right so you won't know the top um the next thing is like don't base it on prices I know right now we're looking at historical rad like return on investments we're looking at prices Etc that's a guide that's just like a nice to have um it's one data point you can use it but and technical analysis and things around that can be useful but it's not really everything you want to look at you want to look at a bunch of different indicators indicator story macro is probably the most important so what's happening with liquidity I think that's the biggest thing what's happening with rates what's happening with inflation What's happen the GDP right where are we in the business cycle we've talked about

this a ton in the podcast to me that's probably the most important thing to look at uh and so that's my first thing that I'm always looking at the other things you're looking at outside of macro and how that world is looking and and where we are in the business cycle you're looking at a lot of kind of onchain indicators and profit indicators um you just had someone on the podcast I think it was last week maybe it was this week yeah Philip Swift from Bitcoin magazine Pro yeah great episode highly recommend everyone go check that one out um where he went over like mvrv there's the nle I don't think he covered that one but that's one we look at and a few other indicators like the pi cycle uh indicator and these are all kind of looking at moving averages slash looking at how much how far in profit are the

holders of Bitcoin because generally there's a point where people are going to sell and it usually kind of matches the same thing that's what you see with the mvv uh and nle and so we look at a lot of onchain indicators that can really help you understand that then we kind of just look at like sentiment so like where is the fear and greed index what's going on in the space like is everyone talking about crypto is everyone all in on crypto if it is like well then there's just not much more room you can go right um so we're looking at sentiment is everyone talking about it on you know on crypto Twitter is everyone talking about on Instagram and Tik Tok now uh what's going on on like is your Uber driver like have their coin stats CH up on their screen in

trading view looking at meme coins like these are signs like hey maybe things are getting a bit crazy here um so we look at that and then we kind of look at flow Capital like obviously if regulation comes around and nation states start to buy this stuff then like none of this [ __ ] matters your onchain stuff doesn't matter right and it's like we're in a whole different Paradigm we're not there yet there's a chance it happens a lot of people I think are maybe too thinking to high probabilities that's it's going to happen at least that's what I see in our Pro Discord and I'm kind of like look I wish it happens I really hope it does but it's a it's still a stretch so I mean these are just all things that you have to you have to keep an eye on what we do is every

Thursday in Pro for those that you know don't know how to track all this stuff and you know there's a million indicators you need to do this it's very difficult and expensive you want to get all these different subscriptions well you can just go pro and in Pro we update this every single Thursday we have six different charts plus I comment and and give a breakdown of my thoughts on all these charts and where we're at every single week every Thursday this comes in your inbox if you're are a pro member and you just get to see where we're at and we will help you not get the top but ideally and hopefully start selling on the way up and maybe on the way down as well right but taking profits at the right time taking profits with the right assets at the right point in this in the

business cycle uh and so of course you can get 40% off right now for those that want to go pro if you are not pro right now honestly you're a little bit crazy because I don't know how else to help you if you're not going pro like Pro is where you're gonna get all the help you possibly need in terms of this stuff so why not right yeah it's it feels like if you're not pro I hope you either either you you get your your research and your data somewhere else in which case all the power to you or you have a savant genius investor mind and you don't need to look at charts and look at data to make the right decision to be the thing that I needed last cycle and I think all my friends needed last cycle right if we just had

that we were all good and that's actually the whole idea of why we made this so you know we're looking at all these data points every single day and trying to figure out where we go from here in summary though my base case is I do think Bitcoin might outperform last cycle uh but I think total market cap doesn't outperform last cycle in terms of its growth or or return on investment so uh it's going to be interesting to watch though I think the big thing I'm looking at right now Jay is we've moved so fast up to 100K okay or close to 100K I keep saying that we're not actually there yet so I'm getting a little ahead of myself too but macro is still not there we still aren't printing a ton of money rates are still at 4.5 and so I wonder if we're going to do the same

thing we did earlier in the year which was we ran up so fast we hit alltime highs before the having which never been done before and every was like accelerated cycle like this is going to be crazy blah blah blah it's going to be a shorten cycle and then we had like eight minutes or eight eight months of of chop or whatever nine months of kind of down only chop I don't know if that happens because hopefully in the next few months we start to get quantitative easing and we we do lower interest rates my base case is that doesn't happen but probably a pullback happens here at some point I don't think we're just going to keep going all the way up to 150k and like that's the end of the cycle by like December right even though people are starting to say that on crypto Twitter

or like it's super cycle we're going to go straight to 500k like even if we did hit 150k 175k that's still could take until October of next year like it could take a year for that to happen and that's still incredible returns right and it still means there's time for altcoin season everything else to happen so just don't get too far ahead of yourself here we should be excited right now we should congratulate ourselves Pat ourselves in the back to be in crypto at you know with this crazy run we just had but like probably this doesn't just continue for the next year you know yeah I want to know everybody listening in uh what do you guys think the probability is of do you think it's more likely that this is a different cycle and Bitcoin outperforms and perhaps total crypto

market cap also outperforms or do you think it's likely that we're in the same thing the same thing is happening again rinse and repeat and learn from the past let us know what you guys think as Kyle said if you're not a pro member you might be taking crazy pills and I don't mean that because I'm trying to pump our own bags here I mean it because we're gen genuinely here to help you we're help here to help you guys make money we're here to help you guys change your lives with your Investments uh and if we're not doing that let us know please tell us what we can do to help you guys out more greatly appreciate all of you every day of the week thanks so much for listening in everybody have a wck and awesome day as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and

make sure you follow us you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to ALS o leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening and my friends have a wicked awesome day