Jesse Eckel on the next crypto bull run and his investing strategy

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the Gly Crypto Show where long-term sometimes means lunch break. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Thursday, August the 27th. What do you need to be looking out for this week? Things are happening today on Thursday, on Friday. We're actually recording this on Wednesday. When are we going to get an altcoin season? When is that going to Have we already got an altcoin season? Where are we in the phases of altcoin season and Bitcoin dominance? When do when is this cycle going to peak? I know that's on everybody's mind. And how do you plan for the cycle peak? How do you plan around that? And how will this cycle play out? These are all the questions we're going to talk about today. We are joined once again by Jesse Eko, founder

of OPAC Venture and fellow podcaster YouTuber, and avid crypto investor. He's been in the space for a while. He's he's done it all. He's made millions. He's lost millions. So, he's seen it all. We're going to jump into all that. Before we jump in, if you guys are making swaps, you want to check out Milk Road Swap. Not only because it's my product and I love it and I have to show my own product, but honestly because it has some of the lowest fees in the space. You could swap at swap.mmillroad.com. You can swap on Ethereum, Bass, Arbitum Salana, all in one place with fees of honestly like 0.15%. It depends on the swap you're making, but it's usually around that. And you really can't get fees that low in many places in crypto.

So check it out. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups, just real returns. It's also brought to you by KGEN, the verified distribution protocol, changing the growth game. With that, Jesse, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. >> Good, to, be, back, on, the, Milk, Road, Show. >> Always, always, a, pleasure, to, have, you, on, man. Uh okay, let's start. We haven't had you on since uh June was the last time we chatted with you. Uh give us give us your uh your summer update. How you feeling right now uh about the markets and where we're at?

>> I, I, mean, I'm, feeling, good, about, where we're at in the markets. The current seasonal, weakness, I, think, was, at least it's for me it's been something I've been talking about for a while now. August and September are seasonally just typically weak months for crypto uh and just like all assets. It's just typically like a weak part of the year. Uh but you know, we've known that TJ Rebuild was coming for a while now. um right, now, that's, coming, out, of the, RP that's about to hit um bank reserves in September. And on top of that, we just have um just like a bunch of different dynamics uh in terms of like we were really leveraged up in terms of Bitcoin.

A ton of leverage built up. We went all the way to 124K. Uh it was just time for us to kind of have a healthy cleanse come back down, uh so we can reload and get ready for October, which is when I expect, you know, the real momentum to start beginning uh is around October. >> Okay., Let's, um, in, order, to, break, down why you think the real momentum is coming around October, let's touch on macro because I think that a lot of your thesis of why October has to do with macro. You've mentioned the seasonality but let's let's talk about what is the macro setup that you're seeing right now.

>> Right, now,, kind, of, literally, everything hinges on September rate cuts. Uh at least the current picture is like seep everything is based around September rate cuts right now. It's it's fully headline driven market almost uh in in a lot of senses in that like we have a landmine of data coming in the next couple weeks with like the PC print on Friday. We have Nvidia earnings today. Um we have PBI and CPI I think in two weeks. We have Jolts. We have a bunch of data reports coming out and all these things people are using to determine are we going to get a rate cut in September or are we not going to get a rate cut in September. And if we uh right now the odds are really high that we are getting

a rate cut in September. I kind of think unless inflation really comes in just crazy hot, no matter what, we're we're likely going to get a rate cut in September. It it's just time. Like I I think everyone kind of knows it's time. Um but but yeah, everything hinges on that. If we don't get a rate cut in September, I think the markets probably nuke like crazy in September. Um but but I still think regardless we come back in October because people are then are going to say like the nuking of the markets in September from not getting a rate cut will cause us to have to get a rate cut in October. That's why >> is, that, almost, a, reason, why they might need to do a rate cut? Let's let's actually back up a second. Let's talk about the the the recent uh

conference uh and speech that Powell gave because a the market initially interpreted it as very doubbish and felt very very good about it but that is not really what he said. I think it was just misinterpreted. What talk to us about what he said and why it got confused and what he actually meant. >> So, So, versus, his, last, few, meetings, he did salt it with a lot of dovish things. um he knows that everyone reads into every word he says and and he said a lot of things that were dovish. My read on it was that that actually didn't make any sense. Um because going into it I anticipated him just to be completely neutral and the reason was because like game if you kind of game theoried out it makes no sense for him to give away his

cards like this early. Um he's we got so many data prints between now and September that if he gets expectations in the market that we're definitely getting a rut uh cut in September and like I just said and we don't get a cut in September. The market dumps that causes us to have to cut in October because when the market goes down everything weakens like all these things are like kind of reflexive off of each other. And so um playing it neutral just seemed like the the for sure what he was going to do but he didn't. He he sold it with all these doubbish things and I was like kind of left scratching. A lot of people were kind of left scratching their head. Um, nobody was everyone was off sides for that. And I think the reason he did it was because some of the

framework adjustments that the the Fed made um were actually super hawkish. And actually, everyone on X um saw the framework adjustments and also thought those were dovish and like started going like giggle like, "Oh my gosh, we're going to the moon." They there this thing was floating around on X where everyone thought we were getting rid of the 2% um price target which was just like target, right? Yeah. >> Yeah., Yeah., Which, was, completely, um, it was literally the exact opposite what they were doing, which was before this um inflation could go above 2% and that was totally chill. Like if inflation went above 2% and and unemployment was bad, they're like like who cares? We're going to prioritize unemployment. Which

is why inflation went crazy crazy high after COVID because they weren't prioritizing it. They pri prioritizing CO and um after this it's the exact opposite. Now it uh they prioritize both kind of more equally. So if inflation is above 2% and unemployment is hot or like or um looking bad, then they might they might still cut or they might not or sorry they might still raise rates or not cut um based off that because they're going to prioritize both a little bit more equally now. So it's actually really hawkish in terms of like the market. And my thought was like he probably knew that going into the meeting. And so to sort of offset or draw away attention from that, he kind of salted his language a little more doubbish. And net net it would have come across neutral is in my head kind of

probably how he planned it out. I think he didn't understand how stupid every everyone would be. And now he's screwed because now the market is like "Oh my gosh, we're definitely getting cut in September." Last I checked on Poly Market, the odds were still pretty dang high. And so I I I don't see how they don't cut in September. Uh and then there's a whole just mountain of other stuff beneath that that has nothing to do with him. That's all the Trump stuff. Um where where Trump is stacking the board and he is a man on a mission. I have Trump's determined about a lot of things. Um but like kind of maybe you know under tariffs for sure, but like this is a pretty high um priority for

for Trump it seems getting rate cuts. Uh and I think I even underestimated how high of a priority. But right now if you're you're having to really bet against Trump not getting what he wants if you're betting against no rate cuts. And this man like he he knows no bounds in terms of like going after what he wants. Like he's very very bold. It's not like he's like kind of shy about these things. And so we had uh this week he said he fired Governor Cook, which she said she can't be fired. I I don't know what's going to happen with that. Um but he seems to be wanting to stack the Fed uh the Fed board um with uh Fed governors who are dovish as like a a sort of a strategy not only to get rate cuts but also like as we have openings

on the regional presidents. So, the Fed board is made up of 12 members. Um, and some of those members are from uh regional bank presidents and they rotate in and out. There's 12 of them. And so anytime there's an opening, those have to be confirmed by the Fed governors. And so, if Trump stacks the Fed governors in favor of of doves, it like it has this huge cascade effect where like now those regional presidents are more likely to be dovish. And like it kind of reshapes the whole uh look of of of the board. And and I think that's kind of his plan because, you know, he's right now he's going after governors but maybe soon he's going after regional presidents. Maybe he goes after um there's actually one uh Fed president uh that kind of has like a a lifetime thing. Maybe he goes after them, has

them retire early. He can offer a carrot. He could offer a stick. There's a lot of different things he could do to kind of kick it the way he wants. But but at the end of at the end of the day barring like some Supreme Court ruling I think I think Trump gets what he wants on this. And so I think we're getting a lot of rate cuts, you know, not not just this year, we'll get probably two this year, but into 2026. >> Yeah., Yeah., Yeah., I, I, I, I, agree., And okay, um I want to frame it two ways here. one is uh that I want to look at um the next month leading up to the next Fed meeting and what data is coming out and what what we should be watching for that would push rate cuts in yes no direction. Um, so let's let's talk about

that first and then I I also want to touch on rates isn't the only thing that that matters for for obviously for markets to go up. But the other and especially when we talk about altcoin season, the other major thing is PMI and the um ISM and what's going on in the business cycle and that also is important indicator. So first let's talk about the next month though first and um what is what is coming up? You talked about we had PCE this week, then we got labor stats. What are you going to be watching for that would push rate cuts in either direction?

>> Okay,, so, basically, you, could, really, sum up the entire state of like are we going to get a bull run? Are we going to get alt season as like pretty much any economic data that's bad is good um because it just makes us get more cuts. Um so we like have a really solid response to any sort of bad economic data. So if you look at the business cycle and all that kind of stuff, it almost it's almost like a secondary um indicator because the the core indicator is is inflation uh really like at the end of the day if inflation gets out of control that ruins everything. Um because the the government has a really solid set of policy decisions they can make to combat inflation and all of those decisions are really really bad

for um asset markets. And uh in terms of like uh if the economy is going under or whatever, they have a really solid set of like uh tools to deal with that and all of those decisions are really good for our banks. And so um you know e economic weakness and all that kind of stuff just means we're more likely to get cuts and all these things we want. Uh but in if inflation gets out of control I I um I like to give the example of like inflation is like sort of like Thanos. like any sort of like minor villain like popping up in economic data would be like okay we assemble the Avengers we deal with this and now we have the Avengers right and this is really good Thanos comes along and then everyone gets wiped out and that'd be inflation so um everything

comes down to inflation that's what we want to keep an eye on so PCE that's one of the, core, things, the, Fed, looks, at, and so if that comes in hot you know that that'd be really bad um if it comes in like kind of hot that's not really the end of the world but if it comes up like way above expectations that'd be really Any of these things coming under expectations are fine. Um, but probably maybe, one, of the, biggest, ones, is, PCE, on Friday. So, expect some volatility into the markets in Friday. And if that thing depending on where that thing lands like the market's going to rip one one or the other, you know, directions.

>> Okay., And, then, the, other, ones, would, be labor stats in early September as well as uh CPI and PPI we also have in in early September as well. I can't remember the exact dates. And then I think the Fed meeting is uh the 17th or 18th. >> 16th, through, the, 17th., So, the, f, the, FOMC meeting in September is going to be the obviously the big big pivotable point but we'll kind of know which way it's going to go based on the current unless they go rogue, which that would be that'd be wild. Um but but we'll kind of know based on these readings kind of how it's going to go.

And um poly market should be a good gauge of like if you don't know what's going to happen, just look at poly market odds. you'll see those tilt one way or the other based on um you know Friday's read and then uh CPI and PPI will be not they'll be a big deal but unless they're like really extreme they won't be in my opinion as big of a deal as PCE unless they come in like super d like super cold like it's just they're a lot lower than expectations then that just really goosees the odds and maybe we get a kind of a a frontr run rally before the September meeting >> one, thing, I, think, that's, important, to understand too is like a lot of people uh, at least, that, I've, been, talking, do recently have been like, "Oh, rate cuts are inevitable." Like, for sure we're

cutting in September, right? And then there's this belief that like because there's this uh everyone's made that decision that this is happening, there becomes this belief that it's like it's that it's oh, it's already priced in right? The thing that I think everyone misses with rate cuts is it is not possible for rate cuts to be fully priced in because you most major institutions that manage their money cannot do anything until the rate cut happens. It's after the rate cut happens that they can change make a decision on changing their investments and going more risk on. So it is literally not possible for a rate cut to be fully priced in in crypto maybe because we're mostly retail. Well, I shouldn't say we're mostly retail right now a lot of institutions but we might have that

feeling but it's it's not possible because yeah the money will move after the rate gets cut. So that's really why it would ignite it. I think post >> that's, a, really, good, point., Um, I, think it kind of comes down to the dynamics of like how much fear and greed's in the market. If you have a lot of fear, a lot of greed in the market, then markets will do a decent job at pulling forward um pricing expectations like that. So like if we were super over the top greedy right now um I I could see an a scenario where like uh you know people lever up and we really do kind of price forward that that cut happening. Um because when when everyone's that bullish, they just kind of assume everything is going they're almost like bulletproof, right? Um, and then when you do get the cut, like, yeah, you got

those second and third order effects but sometimes you can still have that kind of breakdown of price because it's too levered up and add those prices. Maybe those institutions aren't ready to buy because of the, you know, it it just ran too too fast too quick um to the upside. But where if it's super fearful then uh markets don't necessarily price it in at all. Um, they might be like "Yeah, but you know, there's a good chance it's going to fail." And I would say we're definitely more in the super fearful camp. like this market it gets like bursts of like sort of greed but like, most, of the, time, it's, just, like even those bursts like we quickly retract cuz everyone's like still in fear mode. So I think exactly what you said maybe it's like 10% 20% priced in but as soon as we actually get the cut

that'll be huge confirmation and then I think from there it's just basically up only we hit a new all-time high before the end of the year and things go really bananas into uh October, November and December. Why do people invest in real estate? because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY. It's the first real world asset for lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you? Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go

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Okay, let's talk uh I want to talk first let's stick with this year. Um I want to talk about cycle and your psycho thesis because you're very interesting cycle thesis and when the cycle is going to end. Uh but first for this year so your thought is Q4 we rip. Talk to me about um altcoin season first Bitcoin. What do you what do you think dominates? Who do you think wins? >> Really, quick,, I, want, to, go, back, to, you. You mentioned the ISM and like the business cycle and all that kind of stuff.

>> Yeah., Yeah. >> Yeah., Because, with, rate, cuts, and inflation and kind of how that ends up playing out. I I think you're um those are definitely important things. I I think if you look at the business cycle um you can see that like for the first time since like 1948, we're just like sitting flat. We've never had an up up uh up wedge in the cycle. If you look at the chart, it's like um I don't know you what you would call that, but like uh waves, it's like a wave thing up and down. And um up until now, up until 2022 when the Fed raised rates faster than any point before in history, and it's just flat. Like the the business cycle just went straight flat. We have not had any sort of business cycle since then.

We've like poked our head above above the 50 line, but that's it. And so, um this is the economy is in a really weird spot. Um, and I and I've highlighted this before in that like if you look at asset prices, they're at like all-time highs. Like the stock market's never been more overvalued in history, but if you go talk to normal people, they they've like they're they're dying. Like they're really struggling. I know a lot of people that, you know, 5 years ago their business was just like they were raking in money handover fist and today they're like they're maybe going into bankruptcy. Um, the average person is is struggling a lot today. And so I think there's this weird disconnect in the economy. Um and you can see that in the ISM chart where we have not had that boom period which really does come from

credit which comes from the the lowering of rates. So when we lower rates that gives us um cheaper credit then we have this kind of boom period this buildout and that kind of holds people over um and allows them to kind of turn over that debt. we haven't we haven't had that up until this um point and I think that's a really strong indicator that like we need that like um I don't see I don't see how we get around that happening and I it comes down to like do politicians think that people are going to be more upset by inflation or more upset by being like really poor and I I think really it's that it's a hard one but I kind of think people are more upset by being really poor than they are inflation cuz they I think they understand inflation a little bit less.

Um but but also I I don't know there's just you you kind of want to be making making money. And so um yeah, I I I think that um that that is like a really solid indicator of like we we almost have to have that uptrend in the business cycle to at some point. And so I I don't know how it kind of ends up manifesting itself, but like it it will at some point because uh I think politicians step in and make those pull those policy levers they need to to kind of kick the economy into overdrive which is also what Trump investments say they want to do.

>> Yeah., Yeah., Which, which, again, connects to the labor data that we're going to get in early September. And as you said at the beginning, that's the bad news is good news situation, right? Like Oh yeah. You know, hate to say it, but basically, we, want, Labor, Day data, to, come in in September as bad so that the Fed and the politicians have no choice but to pull the levers they need to pull to kickstart the economy, which always drives asset markets higher. >> Yeah., And, you, know,, some, of, the, levers they're talking about pulling, Trump keeps floating this idea. It was just a one-off. Like he actually talked about it,, not, a, lot, of people, caught, it., He talked about it like a month and a half ago. Um but now he's talking about a lot more, which is um stimulus checks. He's talking about sending tariff stimulus

checks, taking the tariff money and sending it back to the US uh like to taxpayers. And the reason he's talking about that if if it's not becoming really clear, part of a pivotable part of Trump's plan is he I think he understands that tariffs is a drag on the economy and he has to goose the economy somehow and and and like heat it up. So he wants those rate cuts, but also like he's looking at alternatives like okay, I can send out stimulus checks this because he needs the economy to heat up. We need that business cycle going. So, you know, there are so many levers you if stuff starts weakening that the call for like the tariff stimulus checks will just go higher.

That's why I'm saying like, yeah, bad news is really good news because we're going to get just so many things thrown at us that are going to be really good for asset prices. And that really is the endgame. Um, I think the reason that asset prices are are at all-time highs even though the economy is really sucking right now is because I think postcoid kind of the illusion of, you know, US uh monetary policy, our debt etc. kind of like faded and more people kind of saw through the facade and they're like "Okay, wait. The government's just going to keep printing money into oblivion and inflate away everything that we own." And so I think more and more people are wanting to hold assets and they're wanting to invest into assets and you know, it's it's not it's not even necessarily about like earnings or anything like that right

now. It's just about I need to put my money somewhere safe from inflation, so I'm going to stick it in assets. And I think, you're, going to, see, that, trend really accelerate. Um, and that's another driver that's going to really push crypto higher uh over the next few years and into 2026. I I hope you're right about that. I hope you're right about that because that is literally you and I spend our entire day and our lives and our careers trying to educate people on this exact topic and help them make sure that they can build wealth and don't get stuck having their dollars inflated away. So, I hope you're right man. I hope you're right. If that's if you're right, then you and I are doing our jobs well because that's what we need. We need more people to understand that, I think, as well. But there's

there's definitely a as you said inflation is harder to understand but it is becoming much more talked about and there is more of a narrative around it that I think people are picking up on and as a result they are trying to figure out what the solution is. I'm not sure everyone knows what the solution is yet which is to go invest in assets but they're they're thinking about it and they're heading in that direction. Um let's talk about liquidity. That's the other piece of the puzzle here that we have not talked about. Uh what are you seeing on the liquidity side? >> Uh, on, the, liquidity, side,, there's, a couple different things I'm watching.

One is rate cuts because that is going to free up credit uh and kickstart the credit cycle which which credit is the a form of money creation. So like more people taking out debt is more people making like literally creating money out of thin air. Um the other thing is the um they're calling it the enhanced supplementary uh leverage ratio uh is like the framework they're trying to put out uh or the ESLR and that's supposed to come into place in I don't know actually I I saw something about maybe something even in September. Uh but from my original expectation it was like something by the end of this year. Uh but basically allows banks to hold less reserves on their um for like their loans. And so it kind of just again goosees like lend it makes it so banks are free more free to lend um allows

them to buy more bonds. And so as they're buying more of the government the government's debt that like uh pushes down uh rates and so that makes it easier to buy a house which again it has all these weird second and third order effects that really um pump up liquidity. And so I actually think that's, one, of the, most, bullish, things for global liquidity like coming down the pipe. And then you have stimulus checks and then you have all the other stuff other countries are doing too. Other countries are getting more like loose with their with their money and and they're kind of realizing, hey, you know, this American except exceptionalism, you know, comes with um them kind of running things hot and so maybe we should be running things hot, too. And so um yeah, I mean I expect liquidity to to go up into 2026. And you're actually

seeing um a lot more people saying that now too that that they're expecting liquidity to really go higher in 2026. And so um this is part of my reason that I think that the cycle isn't going to end in 2025 like most people expect. Um but I think it's going to end in 2026. And I think there's a decent chance it doesn't just end in like January February 2026, but that it ends up going all the way till at the end of 2026. So it kind of in my head the way that I'm seeing it play out is like a burst into early 2026. Then we have some sort of pause. I don't know exactly when that is, but like some sort of breath period for the market to take a breath and then a final runup uh into the end of 2026.

And, the, reason, I, think, we're, going to have a final runup is just seasonality. Crypto seasonally just does really really well in October, November December. And so given the liquidity conditions and all that, I just I don't know. I see it I see it playing into late, 2026., Uh, at least, at least, right now. It depends how fast and how high we go uh into early 2026. Early 2026. you you you might be the only one saying late 2026 right now. There's like the consensus seems the consensus that I'm hearing let's the consensus I'm hearing is like um early mid 2026 Q1 Q2 2026 let's actually just talk about something though for a second why this is going to sound like maybe a dumb question to you but just for everybody why do why is one

of the consensus bets that it ends in 2020 in this year that it ends in 2024 why does so many people think that >> fourear, cycle, um, people, like, patterns and they like to trust patterns even though the four cycle has only played out three times, which is actually a really short pattern. It's hard for people to fade because it's been so consistent. And so, uh, basically everyone's anticipating that the four-year cycle is going to play out like it always has, which would mean that the cycle tops basically October and November of this year. >> And, so,, um,, but, but, most, people, think the four-ear cycle is built off like Bitcoin having and they have or or they don't even know why. And so, they have these really simplistic they have these really simplistic models, which are kind of crazy. It's kind of crazy to think

that way because um you know like you know it's going to break at some point. So maybe you should try to understand why it's happening. In my understanding of why the four-year cycle actually has played out the way it has, it goes all the way to the 2008 financial crisis. And so you had a bunch of it was a big is a big thing that required a lot of policy response from uh lawmakers. that those policy effects actually kicked off the four-year cycle uh with a bunch of debt and credit uh cycles that kind of all went in line that that have played out exactly as you'd expect up until COVID which was also a huge policy response moment uh that completely changed that pattern. And so you kind of can almost think of those patterns as like coming from a pivotal like economic disaster and then like the policy

response to that puts in place a pattern. And so that's why I believe we're in a new pattern in this um and I think it's going to be a 5year cycle because it's nothing about this cycle is familiar to past cycles up until this point. Like it's really weird. The like everything is just off and nobody you know quite understands it. Alltime highs are being hit early. Um credit cycle hasn't started. ISM hasn't ticked higher. Like all these different things you would expect to be doing well ha haven't start. And then even like the structural growth of Bitcoin is just way different. If you look at a chart, it's like the old ones are like these crazy organic looking spikes. And this has been like almost like this I don't even know what to call it. It's just like a it's like it's it's crawling up just

slowly on this like very man-made path or something like that. And so um you have the structural bid from ETFs that has really been driving a lot of the the growth in Bitcoin. >> Micro, strategy, and, ETFs., That's, that's what's driving Bitcoin. >> Yeah., So,, so, everyone's, locked, into, that fouryear cycle, but I think there's a lot of a lot of surface area to argue that like why why do you believe that? And if you don't really know why you believe that, then maybe you shouldn't be relying on something blindly that that you're not quite understanding because you know everything has kind of shifted postcoid.

>> Yeah., Yeah., I, think, it's, it's, very, easy to get stuck in an echo chamber and the the crypto echo chamber of four-year cycle is so strong and there is a million TA analysts on YouTube and on Twitter that are giving you and there's a lot of look I can make this argument too so could you there's so many fantastic charts where I could show you exactly when the cycle will peak this year based on oh when it peaked the past two times and oh it's within 30 days the past two times so it's got to be within 30 days again which is October November which why we hear that so much but I mean the simple thing to me and actually this was said on yesterday's show too um

was it obviously obviously the the Bitcoin having had an effect for a long time but obviously it has less of an effect now when most of the Bitcoin has already been mined like we're not talking about a m we're not talking about nearly as big of a supply shock as we were previously and not to mention as you said the main thing is the financial crisis just happened to line up with the Bitcoin having cycle and that's just a coincidence right but I think that a lot of people are missing that in crypto >> well, also, if, you, just, if, you, go, back, and look on year-over-year liquidity like global M2 like it lines up perfectly with all those cycles so it's it it I really think the having had such a

little effect if you go back to like ETH's um the the merge uh that have like Bitcoin's having is 50%. The merge was like literally at one point over 100% because you were it was deflationary and so like you would expect if if a having like a supply shock really has a massive effect back like two years ago east should have skyrocketed. It should have just like gone to the moon based on that but it didn't. It actually went down for years after that. And that kind of tells me those supply shocks don't have as much of a meaningful impact as people think. Um and that it really was more liquidity driven. But but earlier before we started the podcast, you were asking me like kind of why uh or you you were talking, about, like, I'm, one, of the, only people that thinks it's going to go into

late 2026 >> and, um, some, of, the, reason, behind, that, is actually from the structural belief of the four-year cycle. So just kind of map this out in your head going into um we get this cut in September, cut in October, we just full send into let's say we go into January, February or somewhere around there, maybe even March. Um, but by this point, like everyone's anticipating the four-year cycle. And so, you're going to just have and all this leverage is built up. So you're going to have this structural sell pressure that's going to come into crypto as people are going to start trickling out because they're going to try to time the four-year cycle. And so that's going to delever the market.

We're, going to, have, like, some, sort, of mini crash around this point. Uh, but keep in mind like the effects from the ESLR, the effects from um the the further rate cuts, I think Pal's out in spring. So it's like um you know all those rate cuts after that are are priced in after that not before. So all these liquidity dynamics don't come into play until the later part of 2026. So you have this selloff where people are anticipating these things and then you have all this liquidity that rushes into the ecosystem. So that's kind of why I think you're going to have like a pop into early 2026 um a selloff and then a pop at the end of 2026 is because you get that second wave of liquidity where people are like wait a minute the party's not over yet. And then people

really freak out and that's what leads to that crazy blowoff top going into late 2026. >> Man,, that, would, be, crazy, if, that, if, it plays out like that. Crazy. Crazy because I mean crazy because it would just, you know, blow off tops are nuts but more so it it would be wild to get another double top essentially, right is what you're saying. I can I can I can I can buy it. I can see it. Um, I think that one of the big reasons I can see it is a lot of the we've had so much news this year from Trump, from the administration, from the SEC, the for the announcement that you can now buy crypto in your 401k

uh, banks adjusting, we we're still waiting for market structure, the Genius Act just passed, like all of these things, they they've been they've the news has hit the markets and hasn't had an impact on the markets. But the actual action that comes out of these things won't come until 2026 and I early 26. I don't exactly know when in 2076, but that is all of that all that catalyst is built up and is coming next year. And that really makes me buy into what you're talking about. You're smiling.

Why are you smiling? >> I'm, smiling, because, you're, right., We haven't even touched on all the regul like regulatory like freeing up and ETFs and you know like altcoin ETFs um coming into play in October of this year and then you know in 2026 it's going to be like bananas like the number of altcoin ETFs that are going to go for approval in the SEC is going to be too many. It's going to be ridiculous. And so um but like Clarity Act, I think that's like February or something unless we get it like really quick. It's like February. The stimulus checks are like spring. Like there's just so many things that point to 2026. That's where I'm like how can you? You're you're literally having to hold to this three pattern cycle over like this just like mountain of evidence pointing to 2026. The only

thing that could stop it is inflation. Inflation gets out of control. It's game over. And then maybe the other thing would be if if we ran up too fast, too quick. Um you know, we get that icorus effect where we just boom because you get too much leverage built up and you have to correct at that point. So, um as long as it's a slow grind, uh, you know, like we have these kind of waves like we're doing right now, and as long as we don't have like inflation go bananas, I I I don't see why it doesn't go to end of 2026. But inflation would be the one thing that would kill that. If inflation spikes up early 2026, then you know, that's game over.

>> Yeah., Yeah., Um,, let's, talk, about, how, to play it. So, uh, obviously let's let's focus on on this year, how to play this year, because I don't, as you and I will both agree. We're we're we're getting you on the up on the show more. We're going to be talking lots. The 2026 is still hard to predict right? Like, it is so far enough away. I think the play right now is playing Q4 this year. So, h how do you play it in terms of I have two questions. um on the buying side, how do you play it? What are you buying now the time to buy? But then I also really want to talk about the selling side and exit strategy because we talk a ton about what to buy.

And I'm I'm going to guess I always want to get your takes on what tokens you like and stuff like that, but I'm going to guess that most of our audience is allocated already, right? I think you're you're at that point, right? So what more so what I want to talk about is what's your exit strategy and how do you plan selling because that is the thing that that most people actually mess up and end up round shipping. Selling is so hard because if you believe we're going to have a twopronged cycle kind of like we had in 2021 then knowing what to sell and when to sell it is really really difficult. I say it's like individual per token. what you did have in 2021 is you had a wave of tokens uh that were mostly kind of dur in the like thicker upper half of

the um market caps, right? So like you had you had a wave of like the blue chip tokens that did really really well in the initial burst and then the second burst was all the like low rung tokens that did really really well. And so I would say in but but it's not exclusive like there were some low run ones that did well but typically in that first wave when they top it like they don't quite reach those heights um during the second wave but they do get pretty close. So maybe an easy one is you know uh for like people to stay in profit is just sell your initial when you're when you're in double or triple like sell your initial. It's really hard to lose doing that. Um or if you think we're close to the top and you get freaked out, sell a third of your portfolio. Um

that way if we keep running, you have two/3s in. If you're you're right, you know, you got a little bit out early and you can sell the next third and the next third. Um you kind of have to have some some sort of strategy like that, I think, to win because if you do those all or nothing strategies, like it just mentally it's too hard. What'll happen is you'll sell it all in like December you'll be like, I time the top and then we go higher in February and you're like shoot and so you buy higher and then we dip into that dip I'm talking about and you're like shoot. So you sell lower and then you skyrocket again and you buy the top again. You see what I'm saying? Like mentally it'll just screw you over. So like having some sort of like sell your

initial or sell a third or whatever that will save you from losing a lot of money. Uh most people still won't do it. They just they get too greedy. But like you kind of have to understand that if you act like everyone else in the market, you're going to lose because the average person doesn't become a multi-millionaire investing in the market. Like it's only the outliers that do. So you kind of have to be you're playing rock paper scissors with everyone and you have to be whatever they're not that that's investing. So >> So uh with that say just going I I fully agree with just selling stuff and I want to chat a little bit more about that.

And I think we're going to talk about that a lot on the show over the next uh the next few months just because that is everyone's got that question right of like you know when when is the top when do I sell right and how do I sell and how to think about that but the but the buying side is very interesting to me because sort of what I'm hearing you say and I'm going to really simplify this so uh forgive me for making it this simple is this is right now it's it's like non Bitcoin major season so it's like ETH and Salana and pick your other leading you know, top 50 token, right? And then and and so that's that's this year right? And maybe into 2026, as you said maybe it goes Jan, Feb, March, right?

Somewhere in the range of like Q4, Q1. >> Not, not, just, Salana, then,, but, like, just the the the blue chips. So like um you know, Salana and um you know, Sooie and all these ones, they've been running Hyperlid, they've been doing good. They'll probably continue to do even better. But like think of the things under them. Like everything's a beta to a beta to a beta. So like Polygon uh as like a beta to you know like right now it's been like 2017 era tokens that have done really well. Um XRP all you know all this stuff. The 2021 Darlings I think will also do well at some point.

You'll have like Avalanche, Polygon, uh maybe some weird ones like um what I for what Sonic Phantom became Sonic or whatever something like that. And then um but it keeps spreading out like unis swap um a and then you also will have like narrative rotations alongside that. So it's it's not like it's just going to be blue chips. Um but kind of how we've had narrative rotations all bare market long. You'll have narrative rotations. One of those will be something AI branded at all times. AI is going to have something. It'll always have a champion in the battle. And so AI agents was it one time. The like towel like things was it at another time. I don't know what it'll be next time, but there will always be some sort of head AI narrative rotation happening um alongside like a range of other

narratives that kind of pop into favor um that are that will pull some of those lower rung tokens up to the top. Um and so you kind of have to either guess those or I I don't know. But the the season for the really really cheap tokens will be that second wave. Um or if we don't get the second wave, it'll be at the end of um that first >> two, week, the, two, week, end, of, the euphoria moment. It's so fast. Like that scene is so fast. >> It, It, is, so, fast., But, you, make, so, much money because they they just they go up really high.

>> Yeah., Yeah., Yeah., Totally., Totally. Yeah. It's a it it it feels like a time where I keep saying and I I I would love to end this with you know sorry your your advice that you're giving to your audience as well right now but what I keep saying is just you know patience is the key right now right if if you have money on the sideline and you're not allocated then I do think now is a buying opportunity I think it's possible we dip lower than this through early September depending upon what happens Friday with PCE and various macro uh data that we're going to get in the next month. But it feels like ne I think by by by the FOMC meeting September 17th

if we get that rate cut and you're not allocated, it's going to be tough to allocate for Q4. So like now is the time to be buying if you have anything on the side. At the same time, I will also say you should always keep cash on the side right? Do I I would never fully allocate all my cash. always be prepared for a black swan event or something like that that hits you, blindsides you. But then I also think that, you know, you really just you got to be patient right now and don't get in your own way because the the mistake that most people make is why isn't it going up fast enough? Why isn't it being isn't it where I want to be?

And then you start to chase narratives. And if you're a narrative chaser, let's say this, unless now you're go become a trader, that's what you want to do right? Don't just think, "Oh, I can now catch the next narrative. I'm spending time on Twitter. Like, I know what it is. I listen to a few influencers." You don't. Your exit liquidity. Don't make that mistake. >> That's, really, good, because, yeah,, it, does go a lot of times the gains are made in like a one to two week period is like where like the meat of all the gains is made. So, you do have to have that that patience and um yeah, allocating now when you don't want to is often the best choice. When everyone else is telling you to allocate, that's usually the time you probably should be taking a little bit off the table. And so, um, yeah, no

I agree 100%. >> Awesome., Jesse,, pleasure, to, get, you, back on the show today. >> Yeah,, thanks, for, thanks, for, having, me back on the show. >> Always,, always, good,, man., I, love, the smile. Love the energy. Jessee's going to be joining us on a more frequent basis. So, we'll see more of you. Thanks for tuning in all. Got to remind you now, today's show was was financial advice. I'm not your financial adviser. Jesse's not your financial adviser. If you need help with your finances, just speak to an investment professional. We'll see you back again tomorrow. Have a wicked awesome day. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap.

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