Is it time to go all-in or brace for a correction? Zeneca's view

Transcript

GM, good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that hits like a late night convo with old friends who've seen your portfolio at its worst. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Monday, May the 19th. Bitcoin had its highest weekly close ever this past week above 106,000, and then it dipped and then it came back and you know, the roller coaster continues. The US Senate is going to vote today on stable coin regulation, the Genius Act specifically. Big vote. We will definitely be paying attention to that, although that vote has not happened by the time we're recording. So, you're going to have to watch your timeline to see what comes out of that. And today, we got Zenica back on the show, y'all. Zedica has been on his honeymoon off in Japan. Uh, great

to have him back. We're going to dive into everything he's looking at right now and for the future. Zen always likes to take us deep into the trenches on what's going on in various tokens and altcoin season might be coming up. We'll talk about that and so much more. Before we jump in, if you guys just do me a quick favor, I hate asking this question. All creators hate asking this question, but just give us a like or a follow or a review, whatever you could do. It really does help the algorithm and helps us get more great guests on the show and really be the best we can be for you and your crypto investments. Today's episode is brought to you by Letin, get cash without selling your Bitcoin. It's also brought to you by Coin Shift, powering top crypto treasuries with their yield bearing

stable coin CSUSDL. Without further ado, Zen, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. Thanks for having me back. Good to be back. It's been uh it feels like years, but it's been like what a month maybe. It's crypto day. No. Okay. You How did it feel like you you took you took uh what three weeks off for your honeymoon? totally disconnected and you came back to pretty good times compared to when you left. Like what's your what's your take on where we're at right now? Uh are you did you come back to like okay bull market back on like let's go I'm allocating again or did you come back to like feel like this is just like a little bit of a

a mean reversion and we could still be rangebound from here? Yeah, I'll be honest. I I don't know where we are in the cycle. I think this cycle has been so tough to pick and anyone that says with like confidence, oh yeah, this is old season is now coming or the bull market is definitely back on, I I always take with a massive grain of salt. I'm still sort of getting my bearings. It's I've only been back sort of a week and you know there's so much that's been happening. I'm just happy that prices are up again after a while. Like we had many months basically most of this entire year was just like down and choppy and kind of depressing and and Bitcoin did okay and everything struggled. I I do feel kind of bullish though. Like I I've been bullish for I mean all through this year. Main reason

being just fundamentally everything is pretty damn great for crypto and and none of that has really changed. And yeah, it seems like macro is kind of settling teeny tiny bit which is is good. Yeah, it it's so it's so hard to know where we at where we are in this cycle because as you said it is it is definitely a different cycle. The thing that like I'm getting so the question I keep asking is okay everybody gets the Bitcoin thesis right like I don't think I think if if you're listening to this and you don't have something allocated to Bitcoin stop listening to this and go allocate some of your portfolio to Bitcoin uh because the risk the riskreward on the Bitcoin bet is just so strong right like I don't know about you uh to me one of the big questions that I

always ask myself as to how my conviction is for assets within crypto is like what would I tell my friends and family outside of crypto about and three months ago like basically when Trump said US Bitcoin strategic reserve I know they're not buying but he took the 200,000 Bitcoin that they already owned and he you know basically moved it into a strategic reserve and you can get into the semantics of exactly how he's legally structuring this which we don't even necessarily know yet but like that was the last thing to fall for me on the Bitcoin side that made me say okay I'm now going to go tell my friends and family like you should allocate to Bitcoin And so long as you have long time horizon, you have the stomach for full of volatility, all of that. But I've got I've got and so give me the

thumbs up if you if you agree with that. 100%. Yeah, I hadn't thought of it like that. But if I'm talking to anyone sort of relatively new to crypto, they don't know what to I only tell them buy Bitcoin. Like I I don't even tell them to bother with ETH, Solano, anything else. Just literally just DCA and Bitcoin and you'll better than almost anyone. Well, and and so here so here's where my challenge is is okay. So because I agree with what you're saying. I also don't tell them ETH Salana. I would I don't think I would ever tell anyone, but in the past I have told people ETH Salana. Have you Have you as well? Yes, definitely. Yeah. Yeah. Right. I think we all go through that. You get you drink the Kool-Aid, you're super bullish yourself and you're like, "Yeah, man. This is the future and and

you got to get in on it and yada yada yada." It's just it's it's natural, I think. So, so here so here's where here's where I'm stuck right now is like um I'm trying to figure out where where my conviction is for beyond Bitcoin, right? And I I sort of break it into a few buckets and I would love to get your take and your thoughts on this. We just have an open conversation because you got you and I haven't even caught up in in months. We barely had time to prep for this episode. We'll make it great, don't worry. Uh and um so I'm going to I got one bucket is the the the major L1's and maybe let's bucket all L1s. I'm not like going super far down the risk curve in L1's, but like you could maybe throw like a Sueie or an Aptose or pick pick

your alternative L1 that you believe is the next one. Okay, so that's one bucket. Um, I'm kind of feeling like I I'm I I'm I'm not super strong in my L1 trade conviction right now, right? I'm feeling a lower on that conviction. Not to say I'm out of it. I still hold a lot of Ethan Soul. Next, I'm very interested in the public crypto trade right now. like Coinbase and Hood basically, right? If you look at their their market cap riskreward, I feel pretty strong on that. So, let's let's take the public crypto stocks. Then let's go to like altcoins, but let's break it up.

Memecoins, nice little run here, right? Like really made a comeback. Everyone said memecoins was dead and here we are that Fartcoin back, whiff back. Like all of them have made an incredible comeback. And so I I that's making me think, hey, maybe maybe the memecoin cycle just continues and the L1 trade is cooked this cycle, right? Like very possible. And then I go the next the next category I go to is the app category. Like the real revenues, real fundamentals, which really is only like I don't know 20 DeFi apps really, right?

Like there's not like a lot that fit into that category. Um, and then you could go further and you could look into like virtuals or other apps that you think maybe could be there, but let's be real, the fundamentals aren't very strong in them yet. So, I like I sort of struggle. How do you think How do you think about it between those categories? Or maybe you think about it differently. No, I generally think of it similarly. I think of like different buckets and categories. You got the L1's, you got the AI tokens, memes, etc., etc. I guess as time goes on, I just more and more realize that almost everything is got trending towards zero. That's just the nature of crypto and that's why Bitcoin is just so different to the rest.

Obviously, a bunch of other stuff will do very very well as well. The problem is is picking the right ones. Like for years and years and years, everyone said ETH is just clearly second. I I've always said that I'm still very bullish ETH, but it's just so dramatically underperformed basically everything else this cycle. it's it's no longer clear and obvious to try and I think pick coins. And so I I think I just have a much shorter shorter holding time horizon these days than maybe I did in the past where I think that there's lots of narratives and uh pockets of time where memes are going to do really well or all L1s will do really well because all the attention is on some new chain and then people are chopping from one to another. But at the end of the day, I think taking

profits frequently and funneling it back into Bitcoin, sitting on a nice pile of stables for the next time there's a big crash, cuz that there will be, there always is in crypto. And something you said, excuse me, something you said before about how uh, you know, memes are back. We've got Whiff, we have uh, in Mog is back, we have Vcoin, etc. They're all doing very well. I can't help but feel a little weary because it's reminiscent of after NFTTS in 2021 like there's a big crash and then there were a couple of pockets in 2022 and even into 2023 where people like they're back and things bounced back significantly but they never really got back to previous highs um for the most part. And

so with stuff like that, I I try to look at is there actually new participants entering the ecosystem? Are new people coming into crypto and buying these meme coins or is it just previous bag holders getting excited by a bit of a rally and rebying their own bags? And that to me is the biggest question and I don't know the answer, but that's what I'm looking at. I think the answer is no. Like I think right like that's what my gut says. Yeah, that's what my gut if we break down the like categories of of buyers. So, uh, let's let's talk first about the the institutional side, right? Because like the institutions truly are here now, right? Um, but it doesn't mean that they're necessarily allocating yet, right? They are they're definitely

allocating to Bitcoin. That is for sure. And and they're allocating further down the risk curve. And we did a show like maybe a month or so ago about institution allocation. And it shocked me to see how many of them were allocating to Bonk or Doge or like like blue chip memes, right? Um but but I don't think it is very clear right now that institutions are are they're not they're not rushing to make any decisions right now because everybody is a little bit everybody's just kind of wait and see right now, right? Like you said, like I don't any any smart money investor has the exact same take you said, which is this cycle has gotten too confusing. I do not know where we are

going from here. So, I'm going to wait on the sidelines until I see a meaningful thing happen that makes me say, "Yeah, I'm ready to we are we are truly risk, right?" Because like in my mind, we're not risk right now. No. No. I've been um so like just to I guess give perspective on where my head is at when I got home from the honeymoon 3 weeks like basically the day the last few days before we got home prices were pumping I got home and I was like I'm just going to start selling stuff like I in the past when that would happen I'd be like oh yes risk on let's buy some memes let's catch the next hot thing the next new narrative and you can absolutely make money doing that but it it's just risky and riskier and riskier and riskier macro is it's it's a

a little bit better than it was, you know, when tariffs were going absolutely crazy, but people still don't know what's going to happen. Um, we haven't had like a massive massive massive crash globally for quite a quite a while now. I mean, CO was uh co was co it bounced back pretty quickly, but like aside from that, we haven't had a huge global crash. And so I I I I'm just weary and and I I think trading crypto there's tons of money to be made, but investing is it's a very very very small handful of of things I'm I'm comfortable holding on like a a several year time horizon.

Um and and the I guess the longer time goes on, the more I'm just like it might just be Bitcoin so what what does that mean for you then? Are you are you just are you investing in other asset classes then or are you just sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the next crypto? I am. So I have I've had a um uh my wife and I have had like a weekly DCA into the index fund stock market for a while now and we increased that a bit a bit but aside from that we're not really doing much other investing really just trying to get more cash and stables and literally fiat cash as I know fiat is a dirty word, but it's just like just having a a healthy amount of money in the bank and and also sitting in stable coins in crypto so that if there is a

massive crash, we can, you know, buy good things at a discount. If not, you can still earn decent yield on on your your stables and and even in banks in Australia, you get a, you know, 5% or something, which is nothing to sat. Yeah, that's pretty good. Is Zenica the Warren Buffett of crypto right now? Just uh just just piling cash. I if I was, I would have sold tons more back in January um or or earlier. But I am um I'm headed in that direction, I think, which it's it's a new one for me because pretty much my entire crypto career if I had cash, stables, ETH, even Salana, Soul, it would just almost immediately go into NFTs or memecoins or AI agents or whatever the new hot meta is because

there was always something. And when I'm actively trading, then yes, you want to be deploying capital regularly as an active trader. But yeah, I'm just like basically I've always had multiple buckets like the the trading bucket and the long-term investing holding type bucket. And I'm just like lowering the exposure in the the day-to-day trading and and that kind of stuff and sitting more in the long-term bucket and within that bucket having more instables and cash. Uh again, I'm I'm not bearish. I am bullish but it's just it's it's so uncertain that I I don't feel comfortable taking on massive risk right now. Yeah. And I think that's the key thing that like everybody in the space needs to know that we have we are still in uncertainty right like we have not yes there is a lot of positive

momentum moving moving away from uncertainty towards certainty uh you know there's deals happening tra lots of trade deals happening the US and China did a 90day pause, right? We'll see what comes out and lower tariffs as part of that. I think it's at like 30% and 10% now. I can't even keep track of it, but like it's much lower than the like 150%. Yeah, it was ridiculous, right? So, so there's there is a lot of positive momentum happening on the tariff side. Okay. Like moving in the right direction but but not certainty like I would say like you got to be careful because what happens is when this momentum happens all media loves to talk about it right like the deals are

happening you know but the but then nobody goes and actually does the research and does the reading right and like when you do the reading around China and the US like everything that I've been because I've been I think China and US is that's the main thing that you need to really understand right now on the tariff side like none of the other tariffs really really matter And when you look into that, I I don't know. Like I I I don't My take on it is that they've done a 90-day pause because neither of them wants this extreme tariff long term. But long-term what they both want and how they are both motivated is completely different. So I look at it, I'm thinking like, are they going to reach consensus and agreement in 90 days? Like I really I don't know.

I don't know. Maybe, but it doesn't feel like a slam dunk to me. And then go over to the Fed and you've got Jerome Powell giving us absolutely nothing on what the Fed is going to do. Like just nothing. Like the best line I heard from the last Fed meeting was somebody was like, "I've never seen Jerome Powell say nothing so many times." Like literally he just said nothing. Like which is a skill in itself, right? To give no clue in either direction of what they're going to do, which again like un uncertainty. But then I talked to all these macro people, the the the macro side right now, like Matt Hogan from Bitwise Dan

Tapiierro, they all are so bullish still, like they're so bullish and they they all seem to think and maybe it's because they're 20 years our senior or 30 years our senior and they've just been through this so many times that they know that this is noise, but it's it's just again it's so much conflicting different views, different opinions, and yeah, I I tend to agree with you. I think the one here's my one question. When you came back from your honeymoon and you say, "Okay, I'm I'm going to sell, right?" When when a lot of other people are like, "Yeah, let's go. Now's the time to buy. We're back." Do you are you afraid of I think a lot of people don't sell in these moments because they're afraid of missing out, right?

There's so much fear, right? Like what if what if we are on and boom, we're gonna go. Are you afraid of missing out on that? Do you think that's a fear? Interestingly, no. Like almost every other time in the past when I've sold crypto, there's always been a part of me that was like, I'm doing the wrong thing here. Like I don't want to be selling. I'm just selling because it feels like I should or it feels like the right thing to do or the responsible thing to do. But it was always like it sucked to sell cuz I was like, I love crypto. I'm so bullish. I want to hold. I think we're going to go to the moon. yada yada. This time around it's it just feels good to sell. Um it's it's it's reducing exposure. So I I still have I mean a ton of money in

crypto. Obviously this is everything that I do. This is a significant portion of my my overall net worth is still in crypto. So I feel plenty exposed. I guess it's a case of I don't need 60% of my entire net worth in crypto. I'm content with 30 or 40%. That's kind of like for me that's what the selling is kind of looking like at a bird's eye view. Yeah. which I I think is sensible. Uh there will be times when maybe they will, maybe there won't be when I'm crazy bullish again and want to ramp that up significantly. But maybe not. I think it's so to me it all comes down to uh individual circumstances like every single person is different. If you have no crypto exposure, I would say absolutely go out, buy some crypto right

now. Set up a DCA, get building a position. If you're 90 to 100% in crypto, I would say this is a pretty good time to be selling, take some profits, etc. So, everyone's situation is different. My situation is such that I was probably overexposed before. I didn't feel it at the time, but for whatever reason, I came back and I was like, these prices are 20 30% higher um on the majors from when I left um 40 or 50 for ETH um and much much higher in alts. I'm gonna take some chips off the table and and take some time to decide what I want to do because it's Yeah, I I think we all get caught up in FOMO and rushing and have to make a decision now, but the reality is that there's plenty of time still in crypto and and in markets to uh make good buys. Selling

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there's so many people that don't have profits to take right now, right? you know, like how many people bought the top in December or have held held ETH throughout this the last four years and you know, no profits there. Uh, and maybe maybe you you know, maybe you bought Salana early on, but I don't think a lot of people bought Salana like in FTX, you know, days when it was yeah, $8, but like nobody was buying it then. So like I think that's the challenge is do you reframe your mind around uh like trying not to focus so much on your cost basis but more to focus on a different metric for where like where you I

literally never think of cost basis like once I've bought something it's just it's out of my mind. I think of what percentage of my overall portfolio does it make up and then what percentage of my overall portfolio outside of crypto does that make up. So, you know, within crypto, I could have bought uh some bonk or whiff or whatever for $100 and then it's worth $100,000. It it's completely irrelevant that you paid $100 for it. It's if you're holding a $100,000 position, it's roughly it's basically the equivalent of taking $100,000 in cash and buying that position that day. And so, I asked myself, would I do that? And if the answer is no, then you should probably be selling some of that position. And so that that's kind of how I think about all of my all of my holdings. There's

obviously some nuance tax and and other things go into it and slippage and liquidity and yada yada yada. But for the most part, once I buy something, original cost base is is is out the window. But you're right, I think that's what a lot of people get hung up on. It's they're not in profit. So they bought it at a higher point and they haven't got back to that point yet. And so the the trap is, oh, I'll just wait till it gets back to even, then I'll sell or a little bit of profit and then I'll sell. and then it comes sliding back down. So, uh yeah, I there's this thought experiment that I I recommend people do. I do it myself very frequently. Um I call it the magic wand thought experiment where basically if you had a magic wand, you could liquidate your entire portfolio and get

cash. Would you reby your exact portfolio in the exact proportions as you have it in today? And almost everyone says no. And then you ask yourself, well then why don't you sell some of the positions and then basically just do the work and reallocate it. And again, the the tax and the the slippage issues are are one reasonable response to that. But in many cases, people realize, including myself, you know what? Yes, I should be selling some of this this this and this. I I hold too much of memes and AI agents and garbage and um and maybe even too much of uh Salana and ETH and Sooie and Aptos and not enough Bitcoin or I I don't have enough in stables to buy a potential future dip. So, just constantly I think uh re-evaluating your positions is is really really healthy. That's a great

experiment. Are are you buying anything? Have you bought anything since you're back for a honeymoon? No, but but but I'm also like I'm half back. Like I'm I'm meant to be going to India tomorrow for a family wedding. And so like I knew that I'd be back for a week leaving again. Just like I've been, you know, reading Twitter, catching up on Discord a bit, catching up on emails and just like getting my toes wet, but I'm not in the trenches. I'm not in Telegram chats being like, right, I I see there's the new launch pads and there's new this that and the other. It's like I'm basically taking my own advice that I think I've said on here and in the past. It's like if you're not going to spend 18 hours a day, 12 hours a day in crypto. You're better off just doing nothing. So like

the worst thing I could do is you know what, I have 3, four hours to spend. I've been away. I'm going to buy some random stuff. I just I know that's going to end poorly. So I'm just not buying and just sitting on my hands. And I I do want to get back into it. Uh it's nice to see markets hot again. And it's nice to see AI agents and and that sector doing well. Um I know there are opportunities out there, but just for me right now, I'm I'm I'm not buying in. Mhm. You missed you missed BOP. Did you get uh you missed your your chance to probably get $200,000 BOP? Yeah, there was um I I was pretty disconnected while I was away, but like a few things I did see. That was one of them. And like it just caught my eye and people cuz I

logged into Twitter randomly to post a newsletter or something and people like everyone was talking about should I claim my $200,000 airdrop. I was like what is going on? What? And yeah what? And yeah at a certain price point it's always a question like is it actually worth it? What's involved if I put a disclaimer yada yada but I quickly did some math and was like the token had dumped a bit. it was worth like it was still a lot like $50,000 but then it was like vested and I get a small percentage and reputation is just not even worth considering at that point. But if it was like it's just straight up you know quarter a million dollars stable coin airrop just for launching a token that's I think that's something every reasonable person would be like is there

a way to do this that is ethical that isn't screwing people over and yada yada yada. Um, but yeah, I for everyone who doesn't know what we're talking about, Boops, the new uh the new Launchpad platform that came out and part of their part of their go to market strategy was to lean into leading influencers by offering them a $200,000 airdrop if you created your own coin on BOP. So, you had to like Zenica would have had to launch a Zenica coin on BOP. He would have had to promote it and sell it to your not sell it but promote it to your audience and and then you would Zedica would have gotten $200,000 like roughly.

These are rough numbers but something like that. Yeah, something like that. But as you said it was like it wasn't like instant. It was vested. You had to like do hit all these like milestones like it was it was pure marketing. It was pure marketing. Yeah, it it was pretty clever marketing but yeah. Yeah. But when you get caught up in those pure marketing schemes, you know that they're those are dangerous. Like Oh, very dangerous. Yeah. Um yeah, the more I read, the more I was like, yeah, this is this is just no good. Like I think you technically I didn't have to promote it. I could have called it like fake coin, do not buy something like that and just didn't have to be associated with my brand or name whatsoever. But the way it worked was you you unlock more tokens like the higher the market cap is. So

they incentivize the creator to go out there and tweet about it and shill it and all that kind of stuff. So if you're not gonna do that, which I'm obviously not going to be doing, it it's it's not worth it. Yeah. Zen, I'm trying to like So what's your what's your play for the next the next month? Is it It sounds pretty simple to me, right? Like just sort of wait and watch and be patient pretty much. Yeah. look for the new narrative because there's always a narrative if if we if we so like I'm trying to like plan for different eventualities like if we are entering into a proper bull market and an altcoin season like those are opportunities that

come across very rarely in life like you want to be able to capitalize on that you want to be if you've been tuning into crypto every day for the last year 2 years 5 years you don't want to miss those spots so I don't want to miss if that's the case so even though I'm selling sitting on my hands is not buying. I want to be starting to pay attention again just in case you know what you start to see the the the writing on the wall, the rumors, the the murmurss and and things are just taking off. It's like we saw this late 2023 um when things really started taking off and uh if that starts to happen again then you know risk on can can turn pretty quickly. But in in the in the intermediate time, it's yeah, it's just like reading, catching up, sitting on my

hands. Uh just keeping an eye out for for what that narrative might be. Um whether it's an old one that comes back like memes or AI or NFTTS or gaming or or something like that or L1's or it's some brand new thing that we haven't even heard of that just takes the space by storm. It's so hard to tell. And and I think in in my view, there's going to be there's always a combination of both, right? There's always a new one and that one's very hard to predict and then there's also ones that come back, right? And so, yeah, it it it's it's a challenging time. I I I think the best advice right now is to be patient, right? Because the you get so antsy when you have to be patient and you feel like

you need to make a move and you feel like you need to do something uh and that's when you often make the wrong decision. And also to remind yourself of uh like doing magic wand type like these types of exercises that make you reflect on your strategy and on your plan and look at your portfolio like those are those are very valuable right now. It's so important. Like I've been doing a lot more writing lately and and in part of that process, it's like thinking about things like this and other like I'm working on a piece right now on um how do I value tokens, points, projects cuz crypto is so different to traditional finance and just going through that those thought processes and thinking about it is it's like it's basically the soft skills that I think about that are

really where the vast majority of of any profit or loss or or revenue or anything is going to make up from your crypto career. It's it's rarely from being really really smart or rarely from spending 15 hours a day on your screen. It's from being patient. It's from having good systems. It's from managing your portfolio and and stuff like that. And so I I think it's a it's it's it's a good time. The last few months has been a really good time to just like focus on that kind of stuff and like um sharpen your sharpen your your knife, your axe, your whatever your tools are and and prepare for whether it's a bare market or a bull market. You want to be prepared in both scenarios. I think that's the thing. Most people try and pick one and be like, you know what, it's a bull market. I'm I'm 100% all in

or it's a bear. I'm sitting all in cash, but um try and hedge your bets and and prepare for either scenario. Yeah. Yeah. Couldn't agree more. Zen, great to have you back on the show. Thanks for joining us today. Thanks for having me. Great to be back. Got to remind everybody, none of this was investment advice. Investing is risky. You should do your own research. You should make your own decisions and you should only invest what you're prepared to lose. Thanks so much for tuning in everybody. Have a wicked awesome day. We'll see you back again tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in y'all. Appreciate your time and listening all the way to the end. Before I let you go, got to let you know about this partnership that we have with OKX where you could win up to $60,000 in cash prizes. That's onchain cash USDT

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leave a link for Milk Road Pro. You get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying. This is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto. One final note, this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice. Investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose. Thanks so much for listening in my friends. Have a wicked awesome