How Institutional Money Is Changing Crypto Forever with James Seyffart

Transcript

But also people like to act like gold is like doesn't go down or doesn't have these volatile times. It has massive draw downs. Like if you look at 2011 to 2016, it also has draw downs. Everything has risk. The typical pathline that these things follow is to announce and then buy as far as I'm as far as I I'm aware, right? So a billion dollars is essentially we're going to get a billion dollars of buying pressure on ETH. Is that the right way to read these things? >> Welcome back to the RU. This is your home to learn from the biggest guests, the brightest minds at the tip of innovation.

>> Our goal is to help spread the collective knowledge of everyone in our community. >> We are breaking crypto out of its echo chamber and taking it to the real world. >> Sit back, relax, and enjoy it. >> James, see far. The last time uh I saw James, we were drinking some margaritas in Austin, right next to the the Joe Rogan Comedy Club. James, it's good to see you again, man. >> Good to see you, dude. Wonderful to wonderful to I guess see you again. What a throwback. I forgot about that until you just said it. I was like, "Yeah, that's exactly where it was."

>> I think that was consensus in Austin. Yeah. >> Yep. 24. Yeah. 2024. >> A lot's changed since then. >> Yes, for sure. >> Man, my uh our team behind the scenes set us up with quite the headline downtober and ETFs update. James, is it Downtober or October? Can you please give us some insights? >> Yeah, I mean I mean if you just look at the prices, it's definitely downtober. I mean this is worse than September as far as I'm concerned. Um >> crazy >> or I guess it's what is it down timber and October? I mean it's just down. Uh I guess that's the way the crypto markets work, right? Like uh >> if everyone thinks it's going to go one direction, it's probably going to go in the opposite direction at least for the near term.

>> Counter trading CT has uh has a 100% hit rate essentially. Um, man, I I think you know what a lot of people are interested to hear about is, you know, the ETF update. I wish there was a more, you know, concerted effort that we could push forth while the government was shut down, but generally, you know, people were expecting October in part because of all these ETFs that were set to go live and they've just gotten pushed back. Um what what are we what are we seeing here? Is you know generally when you're looking at the ETF landscape um how are you keeping track of these things? Is it just simply a waiting game for the government to reopen or is there other things that we can look at to give us you know some some some information about where where things are going?

>> Yeah, good question. I mean we have like I'm working on this numbers now and I'm looking at some stuff. I probably missed some filings but there's over 150 filings for digital assets. Some of those are like defined outcome ETFs for Bitcoin. Some of them are like covered call strategies on crypto assets. A lot of them are, you know, there's like 35 different assets that have been filed for. Um, so I mean some of them are leverage, some of them are inverse. Like there's, you name it, there issuers are filing to launch these things, but as you mentioned, the government's in a shutdown. So I don't think anything new is going to come to market while the government is shut down. That's my current expectations. Um, I guess anything could happen because technically the rules are if the SEC doesn't stop you within 75 days. We can

get into the weeds there if we really want, but basically the new rules are basically if the SEC signs off on things or doesn't stop you, you can launch the product within 75 days of filing. Realistically, there's only nineish assets that are going to get approved before the end of 2025 that meet these new generic listing standards for like traditional spot products. But there's other ways to get around and launch like, you know, these these pseudo products that are almost like spot or leverage or use derivatives and things like that to provide exposure in ETF rapper. But as you said, I don't think anything any of those things are likely going to launch while the government is shut down.

>> Yeah. Do you think that these ETFs which historically have had a significant impact on the crypto markets and have seen incredible inflows, do you think with the recent uprising of digital asset treasury companies in this publicly listed format because now those are sort of in the spotlight and you can get exposure through these DATs, do you think we're going to see a little bit less anticipation and excitement around the the ETFs when they do inevitably go live? >> Um, yeah. I mean, so I have a few I have a few thoughts here, right? Like the long tale of assets. I mentioned there's 30 plus assets that are filed for ETFs.

Some have like 20 plus filings related to them like Salana and XRP and other Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Um I think the longer tale of assets are of of assets like digital specific digital currencies, they're probably not going to get a ton of interest, right? like to just because you launch like the 47th largest digital asset in an ETF rapper doesn't mean that this asset's going to take off because it simply has an ETF. I mean, if you look at the Bitcoin ETS, part of the reason they did so well is because there was so much pentup demand and when they launched, Bitcoin was roaring, right?

Like it launched into early January and everyone was expecting it. A lot of money poured in. Initially, it was actually kind of a sell the news event. Um, but long-term money kept pouring in and it was a positive thing for the space. Ethereum is the opposite. For the first five months of its launch, they had net outflows for Ethereum ETFs because, you know, market had dumped. It was in the summer. There wasn't a lot of demand. It had came too quickly after the Bitcoin ETF launched. The narratives weren't clear. Um, but then Trump got elected and it took off and it's just another avenue for people to play the space, particularly Tradfi types of people. Um, so I think the same thing could happen for these other assets. So I think things like Salana and XRP, we know there's pent-up demand there. Is the pent-up demand as much as there was

for Bitcoin, Ethereum? Absolutely not. I I I there just isn't Bitcoin is in a league of its own and Ethereum also has done exceptionally well um in the in recent months. So the other the one area that I am extremely bullish on for some of these longer tail assets other than Bitcoin and ETH and maybe even other than Salana and XRP are basket products. So like index ETFs that are going to provide you exposure to 10 plus different crypto assets. Um, I think there's going to be a lot of demand from the Tradfire world from advisers and brokers that are trying to put clients and give them, you know, simple beta type exposure to the underlying market.

So, I think a lot of demand will flow into these other assets, be those basket products over the long term. But near-term, yeah, it's like it's more the underlying market that's going to determine how well these do than necessarily the fact that all of a sudden there's an ETF. It's not like that's how that's not how this works. I think it's more going to have to be people will jump into the ETFs because something else is going on with the underlying assets. >> What are some of the the digital assets that you're seeing become included in some of the the top five, top 10 indices? Is it just purely by market cap and then they'll rebalance if a new coin enters that market cap? Or are they cherrypicking some from the top, you know, 10, 15, 25? I I think I saw Hyperlid included in maybe one of those

baskets. Is there any aside from you know the the the normal ones the Bitcoin E Salana you mentioned Cardano XRP there's some pent-up demand there what other assets are you seeing might enter that uh you know have a seat at the table um if you will in these indices >> yeah I mean so I'll write so the one there's a bunch of indices for like top 20 top 50 types of things some of them are like you know top 20 x bitcoin x e uh top 20 x bitcoin so like there's all these different variations I think the ones that do one just a broad market exposure. They're going to give you Bitcoin, ETH, and like maybe the the eight next largest or 18 next largest, what have you. I think those are going to do really well. But I also think ones that I kind of hinted at already where

like people already have their Bitcoin exposure. Maybe they already have the Bitcoin and ETH exposure and they really like they don't know what to do around the the like when you go deeper into the rabbit hole. Um you're going to see a lot of demand for those types of products too. But I mean the products that are out there right now is the Grayscale Digital Large Cap product. Uh, hashtex has a product uh, coin shares actually has a product that holds other ETFs from other countries, other regions to to get the exposure. Um, but like they go from XRP, Salana, Avalanche, Cardano, Chain Link, Polka Dot, Litecoin SUI Stellar Uniswap Ton, uh, Near, SEI, Cosmos, Apdos. So like those are all names that are in

there and I think that number is get as we get further and further into the future they're going to get longer and longer tail assets in there. But again it also like I said it kind of depends how the underlying market goes. If if we are going into a bare market here and we are topping the four-year cycle like we everyone kind of has been predicted and most people are expecting um I'm not necessarily in that camp but like you're these things are going to launch and they're probably not going to get a lot of demand initially. >> Just curious how you are thinking about that. Um are you seeing the four-year cycle? are you seeing it play out and you're expecting this? Uh you said you're not necessarily in the camp. What what camp what camp do you find yourself in these days?

>> Uh I don't know. I'm not even allowed to like really have price prediction camps. But I guess my overall view here is like if we are still in a four-year cycle, I think the amplitude and you know absolute levels of like price appreciation, depreciation, collapse and rises. I think it's going to be lower. like you the amplitude is kind of like going down even if we are in some level of a four-year cycle which I I kind of feel like I I don't necessarily believe that particularly for things like Bitcoin neat that now have like more institutional capital um more advisers playing along like when you think about an adviser if you have somebody that's managing your money and you're putting an allocation into a Bitcoin ETF or a crypto index ETF like the way you usually do that is like you target like

a certain percentage of your portfolio. So, like if it does if it does really well, you're going to sell that asset, right? Like if you have a 5% target allocation to Bitcoin and it goes to 10% because it went from 50 to 100 or 670 to 125, whatever, you're probably going to sell when you rebalance quarterly, semiannually, annually, or maybe even you just hit limits and you're going to sell down. The same is also true in the reverse, right? like if if you have a 5% allocation and Bitcoin goes from 125 down to 75, you're probably going to be buying more when it gets down to that 75 level for rebalancing purposes. So, I think these sort of like more longerterm allocated type investors coming in through the ETF rapper and just institutions in general are going to kind of one potentially dampen the

long-term V and the range of prices. So, I think like do I think we're going to see a 50% draw down? Possibly, for sure. Do I think we're going to see an 80 plus percent draw down? I don't know. That would honestly surprise me unless like we have some calamitous like actual like great financial crisis COVID type situation that that happens. So yeah, I think this the cycles are probably not going to be my base case is the cycles aren't going to be what they have been in the past. But >> um people were saying that last time. I wasn't in that camp last time, but now I'm kind of joining that camp I think this time. >> Relay, low fees, lightning speed, and the power of multi-chain at your fingertips. Instant multi-chain payments. Choose any token on any chain.

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>> I Yeah, I I think so, too. I mean, you know, the dampening that you're describing, it's almost like we're going to have these atmospheric pressures on either side, both up and down, as these funds are rebalancing. So, that that makes a lot of sense as as you mentioned, dampening the volatility as we as we extend further further out. One one of the things, and I know you're more on the on the ETF side, but you know, these dats are kind of taking the world by storm. One of the things that just came out a few hours ago, is this uh founder of Huobi, Lee Lynn, uh announcing a $1 billion Ether Trust, effectively a digital asset treasury company for ETH. I was of the understanding, you know, Tom Lee and and ESB and kind of these guys were almost out of powder. It was like most of the

most of the ether buying was behind them, but it seems like there's just we're just getting new entrance with fresh cash coming into the space and then just again the typical pathline that these things follow is to announce and then buy as far as I'm as far as I I'm aware. Right. So a billion dollars is essentially we're going to get a billion dollars of buying pressure on ETH. Is that the right way to read these things? >> Um I won't pretend to be an expert on all the debt stuff. Obviously, I have my own opinions, but that seems to be what the the they call the shot and then they go do it. At least that's what Sailor and um specifically Tom Lee have been doing. Um the DACO thing is interesting because some people Well, I I will admit I was one of the people that thought

that the strategy premium to MNAV was going to take a hit when the Bitcoin ETFs launched and really that isn't what happened at all. Like if anything, it like they were uh it was like a flywheel building on each other. And kind of the same thing happened with the Ethereum DATs that came out this summer and Ethereum ETFs. Like they had all of almost all of the flows that have come into Ethereum ETFs have come in the last six months. Like the vast vast majority of it alongside the the DAT codes launching and buying ETH itself. So um yeah, it's interesting to see how this happens. But like obviously if the flywheel was spinning in one direction positively, I mean could these DAT codes potentially if they're forced to sell or buy back shares or what have you, uh could it spin the opposite direction

alongside ETF outflows? theoretically, I guess that's possible. Um, so yeah, I I don't know exactly how these are working, but for the most part, there's a lot of money and there's a lot of people interested in the space. >> It's crazy. It's crazy. I I'm there's so much to get through. I'm just I'm just jumping from topic to top because the next thing that I want to get your take on is the debasement trade. I mean, I I just had uh a gold expert on the show and she's still more bullish on gold than she is on Bitcoin. I was fighting her a little bit on that, but generally these economies are running hot. Inflation is no longer anchored to 2% expectations. We're we're cutting rates even though we're above the inflation expectation. Atlanta GDP now says GDP is going to run at 3.9%. That's the largest

print that I've seen in a GDP reading for a long long time. What is your take on the debasement trade? How are you reading these things? And when you see this flock to gold and and you you generally see like the devaluation of the currency, what what are the things that come to your mind as a macro analyst generally? How do you process these things? Are are you you know straight up worried? What what's the the sentiment like in your world when it comes to the debasement trade? >> Yeah, I mean it's funny. There are some there are some people in this in this space that like um they like don't even like gold. So like I I get those people on the whole side of things where they are, you know,

trying to look at this and they don't believe in gold as an investment or a portfolio diversifier. So they also don't get Bitcoin. But the people who are really like gold but think Bitcoin is a complete scam, like there's we can throw names out there that like I can't wrap my head around because you can make the argument that it's it's a digital version. It's a better version of of gold in many regards. Um, so yeah, the way I look at it, I I track it, I'm just looking at flows and what's going on. And I mean, gold ETFs are on fire right now. It's funny. A couple years ago, you there was all these stories about central banks buying gold and the gold price was going down. Outflows were coming out of the gold ETFs and now all of a sudden like everyone's pouring in.

So if we look at the the gold the gold ETFs specifically, they've taken in 41.9 they've taken in about 42 billion in the US alone. So those numbers are absolutely insane. But if you look at the Bitcoin ETFs, they've taken in 28 29 billion so far this year and it's a much smaller market cap. So on a percentage basis, if you're looking at the US market, you're looking at these things. Bitcoin's taken in tons of money on a percentage basis is just not keeping up with gold. And obviously the gold price appreciation, we're seeing Bitcoin go down more act like a risk asset and gold really doing its thing. And like the way the people like to think about like it's a safe haze and it's going to go up when the stock market goes down. And that's not really how gold works. I didn't

listen to your interview beforehand, but like gold kind of just beats to its old drum, right? Like it it it goes in wacky directions. Sometimes it's correlated, sometimes it's like inversely correlated. It's not inversely correlated to equity markets. It has like a 0% correlation to to risk assets for the most part. Whereas Bitcoin, it has like a 0 2.3 correlation over the last five years on a weekly basis too with this S&P 500, NASDAQ, highly correlated liquidity and other risk metric type things. Uh M2. So you know I they're they're I view them as complimentary assets in a portfolio. Um I've been writing that since 2018. I I've been do this thing I I call it the store value smackdown where I can comp compare and contrast gold and Bitcoin and like they're supplementary or

complimentary assets in a portfolio. They're not um they're not like competitive. You know, you don't only have to pick one as far as I'm concerned. >> Absolutely. No, I'm I'm on the same page there. Ultimately, these things are are both hedges. Um and it and they're both driven by narratives. It feels like Bitcoin even more so, but gold is certainly taking that spotlight now, too. When there is this deval, this current currency devaluation and the debasement trade, these things trade like meme stocks. But when when the S&P is going down, there's kind of this narrative around safe haven assets and and inflation hedges, right? So they they can kind of be the best of both worlds and we've certainly seen Bitcoin act that way. Um the just compound on this gold topic, the the people there's

people out there that are saying historically we've seen the rotation happen. First it goes to gold, gold has this runup and then historically we see a rotation over to Bitcoin. when you're looking at the ratio between gold and bitcoin understandably so and I agree these things are complimentary in a portfolio but when you have those guys that kind of go one or the other where do you see this ratio do you see this rotation that might happen do you think it could happen do you think gold is kind of getting overbought here relative to bitcoin how do you see these two playing out when it comes to you know which one owns the narrative >> you know honestly technically I'm not really even allowed to answer some of those questions But but I would say like if you look over a long enough time

frame, I mean gold the ratio of Bitcoin to gold bottomed obviously at the end of 2022 and into early 2023 after peaking in 2021. It was actually like ridiculously high. And then we actually broke that peak in December of 2024 following the Trump election. And obviously now it's like literally going straight down. Bitcoin is going down and gold is going up. though today gold's down a little bit but I mean if you look at the performance of gold over the last you know six months it's kind of insane for an asset that's has a market cap over 20 trillion I mean the numbers are absolutely ridiculous it's added multiple bitcoins in market cap over the last year um so the this thing es and flows if you look over the long enough time frame going back 2015 or even earlier I mean the trend is pretty clear in which direction

it's going you know bitcoin is becoming digital gold theoretically but right now Bitcoin is not a digital gold it's not I mean theoretically I view I view it as a potential store of value but it does not trade like a store of value. This thing is trades like a risk asset and you see that um over time but also people like to act like gold is like doesn't go down or doesn't have these volatile times. It has massive draw downs. Like if you look at 2011 to 2016 it also has draw downs. Everything has risk. um it's just overplayed. But obviously Bitcoins is way higher way higher risk and theoretically hopefully you you hope that you're compensated with higher return but you know past isn't always past returns aren't always indicative of future right.

>> Yes certainly not. We're we're going to see plenty of that play out once these altcoin ETFs go live. We'll we'll see how the long tail reacts to it. Um I I want to get your get your uh your temperature on the RWA things as well because you know we're seeing a lot of pent-up demand um from Wall Street coming into the crypto markets and in particular around the RWA and stable coins but it's difficult to get exposure to um when when you're looking at some of the things that are happening uh they're happening on Wall Street like like the private credit market is one one sector that we've seen with a lot of uh tokenization. this is, you know, one one direction that they're taking the private credit market. I'm starting to see some some some cracks in the

foundation. What's your read on this? And do you think that there's cause for concern? >> Um, I don't know. I mean, some of this stuff looks like there's potential alloc allegations of fraud and what the stuff you're talking about, you've seen in news stories recently. Um, I won't pretend to be an expert on private credit. What I will say is like all the tokenization of the private funds, private credit, it's like small potatoes. like the stuff that's happening on the tokenization side of these on the trady assets, trady funds right now. It's like we're in the such early stages like we have a lot of different companies doing these things. the the biggest area obviously stable coins but also money market funds like those types of things are the things that are actually gaining some traction but still in the grand scheme of things compared to the trady world I mean they

are like it's not it's like a rounding error right so we're super early days but you have companies like black rockck Franklin temple bitwise wisdom tree and then obviously some of those private funds that you were that you were just hinting at that are like they're toying around with this working with like securitize and superstate and tokenizing equity we are in such the early stages like not even in inning one of like where this stuff is going to go in my opinion. Um there's a lot of regulatory questions that still need to be answered. There's a lot of things that need to be figured out before we we see what's happening. But even if like all of private credit blows up, I mean it's such a small part like the tokenization side, it's like borderline irrelevant. I think it's just like Hamilton Lane and these other companies are like just

getting ready to figure out how to do this if this is indeed where things are going in the future. There's pros and cons to doing this. Um, and that I mean the crypto world and most of your followers, they tend to focus more on just the pros. There are certainly things on the con side of things that need to be sorted out. >> Yeah, I I think um this is indicative of of the buildup of leverage in the system and that's generally where where I'm sort of I'm sort of coming to is that you know we kind of saw the cracks in the foundation in the crypto world. We saw this flash crash last weekend. You know, this was big leverage wash out.

We're seeing some of the cracks in the foundation when it comes to the private credit market, not necessarily tokenization, but just broadly on on offchain and onchain. What's your take on on the leverage situation in in the broad markets, not just in crypto, but broadly? Do you see there's kind of too much buildup here? And and you know, we're looking at potentially getting a wash out more broadly. What what are some of the signs that we can look at and point to as far as when we're getting a little bit overextended? >> Yeah, I mean I I won't pretend I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in this. Obviously, I pay attention to it, but a lot of the people that are really concerned about this and ringing alarm bells around it, they'll show you charts and they don't put a denominator on it.

So, they'll look at debt and then they're like they don't include like what the level of equity is or correct it for for assets. like they look at money market funds but they don't say it compared to like mutual fund assets as a whole or M2 or the equity market. Like if you put a denominator on a lot of this stuff, yes, we are elevated in some regards to history, but like we're nowhere near like the sort of levels where we we're typically see like credit card debt. Put it to credit card debt over the balances. Yes, there is some delinquencies and things like that and there are some cracks forming, but like there's nowhere I I don't there's not a lot that I see where I get like super super concerned. Um, the one thing that you hear a lot of people point to is

what you kind of talk about is private credit. People, there's not as much a lot of insight into what's happening. >> Um, and I won't pretend to be uh an expert on that side of things, but I would say like anybody showing a chart and it's just like debt levels or some sort of things, if there's no denominator on that, I'd be very skeptical of whatever you're looking at. So, if if there if there's no like quantifying it over time, like obviously if you're saying like if you're looking at the equity markets, like it's gone up a ton over the last 10 years. So if debt has gone up over a ton and you're not like accounting for the fact that assets and equity have appreciated as well, you're kind of missing half the picture.

Uh that's not to say that we couldn't be running into trouble in certain areas of the market. I mean the economy and particularly consumers, we we see that like um there's this K-shaped economy where people at the top are doing very well and people at the bottom are having having trouble here. uh a lot of the stock market is like kind of in my view like getting a little disjointed from the economy in a way because so much of it is heavily allocated towards the top end. So like yeah I mean the top the top 1% is like top 10% of the the US economy is accounting for the vast vast majority of the spend.

>> Yeah, we're we're seeing that with MAG seven taking over more and more of the stock. Everything's just becoming more and more concentrated at the top. Um I I I want to get in uh at maybe just a couple more questions. one is that, you know, I I saw you retweeted uh something from CJ the Limitless Guy about kind of the whistleblower effect that he's had on Binance. You know, what what what's your take on like centralized finance versus decentralized finance? I you know, kind of the trady DeFi conversation is becoming a little bit irrelevant these days because it's all just merging into finance uh as uh these things come onchain. But when you look at some of the incumbents uh the the large incumbents like Binance in in this

industry and then you look at some of the onchain players Coinbase taking their path with Bass and really just opening up permissionless listings. Where do you think is the right where where do you draw the line in the sand um with regards to the regulatory environment now? Who do you think is doing it the right way? And and you know what do you have to say to those who are maybe doing it the wrong way? >> I'll say a few things on this. Right. So my first thing is like when I talk to people in the trady world, they kind of outright dismiss everything happen in the DeFi world. They just think it's stupid and not everyone, but there are a lot of people that just haven't taken a second look. And it's like, no, wait, there actually is a lot of stuff here that's very cool and could be very

beneficial to Tradfi. But at the same time, DeFi and crypto keeps making mistakes that Tradfi made like years and years ago. There's a lot of rules and regulations and things that are set up so that there is no fraud. like the custodian can't be the exchange. All these different things like things are segregated. FTX wouldn't have been able to happen in the in the in the Tradfi world, right? Like there are all these things that are set up with the with some of the liquidations that happened over this weekend. There are there are stop limits, there are circuit breakers and things in Tradfi so that like things just don't compound and like completely blow up in the same way. Maybe some people would say that they they prefer it to blow up the way that it has and be more free. But there are all these

things that are set up in our system for leveraging and deleveraging and capital uh margin calls and capital calls and all these things that like Tradfi has learned from over the last 100 plus years, right? And I feel like there's this continuing thing that happens where like DeFi does something and then they're like, "Oh wait, we should have been doing this and it's like well Tradfi has been doing this for forever." So there's like this learning that's going on on both sides and like you said everything's kind of merging together and every I think it's going to learn from each other but it's going to take a long time. It's going to be many many years. So I kind of sit in the middle here where I'm trying to like I talk to the DeFi people and I'm like look trady there's reasons that Tradfi does it this

way. it's not always just that tech is going to solve these problems. And then I go into my the Tradfi world where I normally really come from and like they just think it's all scams and NFTTS and things that no one really cares about and trading and frauds and it's just like that is not all that's happening here. There's a lot of people with a lot of money building really cool powerful things. Um and really like almost anything it's the the truth tends to be more in the middle. Asset management redefined. Built on ERC7621. Standardize how you launch, manage, and trade onchain baskets. This is Alvara, the standard for onchain asset management. Blockchain shortcuts, templates, and widgets. Launch without friction for builders by builders. Visit

enso.build. where where do you see the most opportunity for regulation improvement and and generally just bringing the infrastructure that has worked for so long in Tradfi and bringing it to DeFi? What it feels like we're 90% of the way there and maybe even more. What is still the missing piece for us to like turn this into a real legitimate industry? Did saw a conversation. Do you think you know crypto should have circuit breakers? some of the things that are just so fundamental to the the you know financial world. What do you think are those missing pieces that are still instrumental that we should be adding to crypto?

>> Yeah, I mean the the main thing I think that like people need to be concerned about in this industry as far as I'm concerned is like the clarity act in Congress, what's going on, right? So like whatever's going on with with Congress and and that front like providing more clarity to what's allowed and what isn't allowed in crypto and creating rules of the road so that like you know we get a new administration three plus years from now on the they're Democrat like are they going to go in and kill stuff because we never this this administration never got some rules through. Um I that that's the number one thing that I think people should be concerned about as far as I'm concerned.

I'm not going to pretend to know like how crypto should build in circuit breakers, but it's pretty evident that whatever happened this weekend has to do with some of the the micro structure of the way that deleveraging happens and per the pro there's pros and cons to all these things and you just learn from I mean Trafi has flash crashes too. They had massive flash crashes years ago and they've come up with solutions that solve this. Part of the problem is DeFi is very decentralized but if you look at some of the DeFi protocols they didn't, you know, have nearly as many problems as something like Binance. some of these more centralized books, but there are other issues where things are hardcoded that DeFi could potentially have an issue, too. So, it's it's hard to know exactly what the solution is. I think it's going to be iteration, but I mean,

the one thing that the industry really needs from the US perspective is some more clarity. We got it in the Genius bill for what stable coins are allowed, and they're going to need more stuff for like what's allowed in DeFi. Um, and there's been, I mean, there was a huge push last week complaining from people that, you know, some of the Democratic people that have been elected that were seemingly pro crypto are trying to put things into this bill that would make crypto borderline illegal. Um, so yeah, I mean, there there needs to be some, you know, sorting out with with what's actually allowed and what people are actually able to build and what's required to be collected and things along those lines.

>> Yep. Um man, just to bring us full circle here, um right now Khi's prediction market of how long will the government shutdown last has us at between 35 and 40 days, which makes it the longest government shutdown ever. Um you know, people care about this because of ETFs mostly in this world, but generally on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the most, how how much should we care about the government shutdown? everything's kind of working as normal. Where where would you where would you put this on the sliding scale?

>> Yeah, I mean it matters. I mean for anyone who's not collecting a paycheck right now, it matters a lot for them, right? But the other for but for from from like taking a step back from that obviously uh from financial markets obviously is kind of not people don't seem to care all that much. Um, but from like my particular area, what I'm watching is a lot of these filings, there's been 3x and 5x filings, which I'm not sure the SEC will allow. Tons of these crypto filings, things are on ice until the SEC is back working again, I'm pretty sure. So, I won't pretend to know exactly what's going to happen, but if you're care about crypto and you're trying to figure out what's going on with these, you know, digital assets, ETFs, you kind of need the government to come back in order for any of these

things to actually list. I think I mean ultimately even if it is 30 40 days I mean our expectation is we're going to see a ton of new assets come to market um before the end of the year but I mean if this goes on through the end of the year which would be completely unprecedented then I guess maybe we won't see these assets. So um yeah that's that's what we're paying attention to but it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that we're going to get at least um nine new assets that come to market and I'll read those off if you want. Sure. Uh yeah. So um Salana Litecoin um Dogecoin, Polka Dot, Avalanche, Chain Link, Hideera, Cardano, and XRP. And then also you have Stellar

and you know, Bitcoin Cash and Shibaino that technically would also probably qualify if somebody wanted to file for them. So all of those things theoretically within the next 6 to 12 months >> um should or could have a spot ETF tracking them and even without the current regulations uh Rex shares and others have figured out ways to launch products that don't necessarily comply with the rules that are required under the new generic listing standards but they can launch ETFs too. So you're going to see a 100 plus products come to market in the next few months. >> Camry an explosion out there in the in the public markets. How how close were we to approving these things before the government went on vacation? Like you know if we come back say next week are you know do do we expect these things to

be in review for another two weeks another two months uh before they ultimately do go live? >> I really don't know probably less. I mean I it seemed like things were gearing up to let Salana launch um most likely. So I think there was going to be a bunch of Salana ETFs that come to market. Uh they are allowing staking now. So there are a bunch of Ethereum ETFs that were spoton and couldn't stake that are now staking. Um, so I think Salana would have been next, but I think a lot of the other ones, Litecoin was probably about to come to market. I think there was a whole bunch of products that were about to come to market and could come to market very quickly once the SEC comes back. Um, but I I don't know exactly how this is going to work. Like the way these generic

listing standards rules work is you file Perspectus and then the SEC has 75 days to give you comments on what you need to update, what you need to change, or basically tell you you can't launch this. Um, these products were filed many in many cases like well before the 75day rule, but the generic listing standards weren't approved till mid to late September, September 17th I think. So like there's this weird like middle ground where like in the future it's going to be file perspectus and you have 75 days and theoretically you can launch which is how most ETFs work. And now these commodity based trust shares are also going to work. We're kind of in this middle zone where like they just instituted the generic listing standards. They need to figure out exactly how this is going to work and and I'm not going to pretend to know,

but I think you're going to see a lot of things come to market before the end of the year. >> Yeah, makes a ton of sense. Um, man, James, thanks so much for joining. It was an absolute pleasure. Um, the insights that we got on the ETFs, uh, I think are going to are going to help a lot of people. Um, the 75 days that you mentioned from September, you know, puts us towards the end of the year. Some of the things are more likely like you said, three to 3x, 5x. There's some of these things that might take a little bit more time uh or might be denied altogether. But um real you know just clarity in in uh the way in which you're describing these things is really helpful for us to pick through and uh pick out the the most important things

that are happening in the market today. So absolute pleasure. Thank you so much for coming on man and uh more margaritas very soon. >> Thanks for having me. Hope you have a good rest of your day. Happy Friday. >> Hopefully hopefully tonight and this weekend will go better for the markets than uh than last weekend and last Friday. Exactly. So far, we are one weekend without a market uh turmoil flash crash. So, let's see if we can get that to two or three. >> All right, James. Thanks, man. >> See you. >> Let's keep things rolling here. That was an absolutely uh just a great segment with uh with James uh Bloomberg analyst.

Um, man, he he's got the insights, you know, when it comes to uh when it comes to the ETFs and it comes to all the things that we're we're keeping track of on, you know, a daily basis. He's got the he's got the answers. He's got the info, man. We've we've we're just getting comments out here. Best crypto show out there. You guys make this the best crypto show out there. We're going to continue just we're just picking lemons. We're going to just keep squeezing these lemons so that you guys can make lemonade. Guys, it's been a doozy. I think we were at something like three and a half hours here today. Um, just one after another.

We talked about prediction markets, we talked about AI agents, we talked about macro, we talked about gold, the debasement trade, currency devaluation. Man, what a great segment. James was was an animal. He's bringing the alpha on the ETFs. I mean, government shutdown, is it affecting our daily lives? I don't know. The sun is still shining. Everything is still going to be okay. But but man, we want, you know, if you look at the markets today, we want these ETFs. Uh especially if you look at what happened in the markets last time we saw these ETFs go live. Uh we don't want downtober. We want October. I'm man, it's very very tricky times. Something that flew under the radar, I think we got a little bit of perspective on it is

this Huobi Dat uh Lee Lin Lee Lynn to launch $1 billion Ether Trust. And normally I come from the era of crypto 2019 2020. You know these guys tend to uh there's an old saying it's uh pack your bags before you before you announce. That's not the case anymore. That's not the case anymore. These guys are calling their shot and then they're doing it. And so you know if he's going out and he's raising a billion dollars uh for an Ether Trust that is a billion dollars that is currently sidelined in dry powder.

Guys, doozy of a day. We're going to call it We're going to call it a day, a week. Check out these segments. We're going to be posting on YouTube over the weekend. Smash the follow button. Smash the subscribe. Give us a retweet. Give us a like. We're going to have clips rolling over the next 72 hours. And then we're going to do it all next week. We're going to do it all again. Bullish Rollup TV market bounce. Let's get a weekend pump for the for the boys. Let's go. Stay frosty, guys. We're going to see you next time. Uh, shout out to everyone behind the scenes. Marcelo, Leo, Alex, Andy's out there somewhere.

Aliona, Nero. Come on, guys. Give it up for the team behind the scenes. Couldn't do it without you guys. Couldn't do it with any everyone who's watching. Um, hope you guys learned something. Hope you guys took something away. Maybe even placed a trade while we were here live. Um, or just generally upgraded your knowledge base. um and have a better understanding of what is happening out there in the markets and on chain. What a week. All right, that's it. We're done. Have a great weekend, guys.

Signing off. Rollup TV. Peace.