How Bitcoin Entering the Fed Changes Crypto Forever | Roundup

Transcript

the most interesting thing outcome here which oftentimes tends to happen is Trump hearing this and trying to get more support from the Bitcoin crowd and saying ah I like I like what lus said on Friday and then boom now you've got the headlines in every mainstream media publication that Trump supports plan to make Bitcoin a global Reserve currency asset and like in that outcome yeah I mean that's you meme it into existence that's the that's the bitcoin's at 100K before you know it outcome so well I thought you were going to save a million but yeah I mean this episode is brought to you by anoma the universal intent machine introducing a new era of applications

where you define the outcomes you want to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newsletter at an.net special thanks to anoma for sponsoring today's episode real is a permissionless L2 designed for tokenized real world assets they've just launched their Rewards program so get started at re. rewards and be sure to use the code in the show notes below special thanks to real for sponsoring today's episode this episode is brought to you by Avalanche Avalanche is a leading network of blockchains giving some of the world's largest financial institutions new use cases and business models while leveraging completely customizable

infrastructure check them out it's core. apppp slcover you can explore avalanche's subnet ecosystem at core. appd Discover of playing around early today really cool hey everyone Jason here have you ever wanted to play casino games with your friends right from your couch I'm excited to tell you about my prize the first multiplayer online casino where you can play chat and win together when you make your first deposit of $10 or more you'll get $20 for free head on over to my pri.com invite SL Empire to get started what's up everyone welcome back to the Roundup Santi how we doing I'm doing great doing great I'm in uh I'm in

the land of the free the home of the brave and it just feels like a really good week to be in the US nice why why why are you in the US uh you'll see on Friday but uh yeah I'm just here to meet up with a bunch of people um and um yeah I had a pretty good opportunity this Friday to something related to the EF let's put it that way nice the Pod will come out Friday at 800 am so do you want to give a sneak peek or no no because it it it it would have to be after 4 so if you don't get it by now then you'll understand yes uh you want to uh are we are we running with that Bloomberg TV in the

background you you want to punch that yeah let me turn it off we can't give Bloomberg any air time on a block Works podcast STI you know that I'm sorry well you know we talk about Bloomberg here a lot because you know actually um a quote that people really seemed to like I tweeted about it was like don't worry about people stealing your ideas if they're any good you'll have to shove them down their throat and of course got like a lot of hits and likes Mike uh your co-founder really liked it and he said yeah that's certainly true for Block works like I think you've talked about like at the time you were raising you were like people like why would you want to build a media company there's already Bloomberg's going to like come in steamroll through this and of course they haven't yeah I turned it off so

thank you thank you no we we like Bloomberg we like I like um well you're looking very uh Dapper nice haircut I got a haircut on the guy said you look younger I'm like you know you're old when people start commenting that you start looking younger you do look younger you do look young God damn it maybe I should shave my beard and and see what that'll probably shave more years um so crypto is taking a crypto is taking a toll on my you know physique bro if it's taking a toll on your physique what does that make me I'm I'm hurting over here I was like I'm gonna get nice and tan I'm out of the city for the month it appears that has not happened what what else any any interesting meetings in New

York yeah so uh I I had the I was invited to a dinner by Vanek guys so Prav we actually have to have him on the pod um so there was a small group someone from Solana was there someone from uh large Canadian pension fund that is invested in cryptos there Jean vanck which is uh you know the son of the founder of vanck it's pretty amazing story actually they really kind of grew a lot with ETFs and then they have of course the Huddle ETF which is the Bitcoin ETF and the ethereum ETF so it was in the day that the EF launched which is going to be something that we're going to talk about during the Pod and they were I think they received like 45 million in inflows the first day so

it was like a really good conversation and then there was Prav which runs his hedge fund strategy and he's very smart someone that I talk to on the daily almost uh and uh this um this other guy called Anthony borquez he's uh like an entrepreneur he's a professor at USC really interesting background uh and it's awesome to see very successful entrepreneurs like that are also looking to invest in crypto he's actually a gaming founder he's had like all his life he's just like been early in games he's developed games so we had a really good conversation around like why he likes crypto and why he thinks that crypto is good for

games um particularly at a time where most people are fading games right because of you know the tokens themselves haven't performed as well per se so he would also be someone that would be great for the podcast uh I think nice yeah um that's great man good trip excited to see the announcement that's cool yeah um we launched pickle ball tournament at permission list that was our week so we're hard at work over here at blockworks uh what are you doing to move this industry forward huh yeah we are out here launching pickle ball tournaments so go we'll put a link in the uh in the show notes you can fill out a form go yeah go get that um all right should we talk about I mean

there's a couple things we want to talk about I think markets uh yeah why don't we just talk about like I mean it's pretty chaotic week in the markets so I'd love to hear how you're thinking about that are you yeah why don't we start there well you were gonna ask I was gonna ask are you I'm comfortable talking about the public market buys that you made and how you structured those sure sure yeah I can do that uh well as as a maybe just to level set the conversation if you've been hiding under a rock uh the equity markets just shed 1.1 trillion yesterday uh this is like the NASDAQ the S&P um which is you know just a casual 40% of all crypto market cap just poof um and there were some pretty big swings

like Tesla was down 11% uh coinbase was down 5% uh uh crowd strike continues to be beaten down because obviously the out the bog um so yeah anyways there's there's been a big rotation out of tech uh over the last week or so or two and actually more than that um Joe mccan actually you know we we've had him on the Pod he has a good news that he tracks as well and yeah there's some interesting stuff going on the equity markets um and then of course the people are still projecting like rate Cuts as early as September but I think the market my read is that uh uh you know Tech is had a very big outperformance relative to the

rest of the market and then just there's a rotation into other stuff like value and like the Russell and like small cap stuff and um I don't necessarily read much into it I'm not an expert on it but it's just interesting um I do pay attention transitioning more into your question when something that I like goes down like 11% then I think it's uh it's those moments where I think as a as an investor as a Trader you really get out of bed to do some stuff um and so I yeah last yesterday bought some a structured product that uh uh it's kind of like um um we're Tesla in coin sort of the worst off and with a pretty big buffer um and so this is like X this is part of

my non- crypto portfolio of course I guess I have coinbase and uh my private bank who keeps reminding me that I don't need more crypto concentration in my portfolio but I don't know I just feel that uh these are names that I like and it's a short list of of things that I that I track and so yeah I don't know if you want me to go more more so you bought Tesla and coin but you didn't just buy the stock I didn't buy the stock these are like uh they're called in the US Phoenix notes outside the USA they're they're also called reverse autoc call converts I think I've talked about this structure in the Pod before basically I'm betting that you can choose your your uh barrier meaning like um I'm betting that both coinbase

and Tesla don't go down more than like 30% or 35% um if they do go below that then I just after a year observation then I'd basically buy the stock at that level down 35 so the risk of course is if the stock goes down more than 35% I start losing after that point um but it is compensated by the fact that during this period if the stock kind of stays within this range like below the current price that I that I where I bought like you know the close yesterday and down 35% if it stays within that range then I get paid a pretty compelling coupon in this case it was like 46% annual coupon so for me it's a way to like um have Equity like exposure to

names that I like and feel comfortable holding long term because worst case for me um you know I I um I end up buying the stock and it's two names that I feel comfortable holding in my portfolio long term uh and in the meantime I get paid a pretty substantial coupon that behaves more like Equity right because you know the stock market S&P NASA historically go up 15% what give or take um now these names have a lot of volatility Tesla I think historically has had like a 60% ball so there's a very big chance that it might dip below 35 but I get paid a pretty substantial coupon that I can then use to you know basically uh there's a point by which like um you

know I start losing but for me it's a good way like uh I prioritize cash flow I've I've talked here and to tweeted about like for me it's important to have Diversified sources of cash flow and this is like a good way to earn a coupon right the way I generally think about it is like if you're earning that type of coupon then you can reinvest it into much higher risk stuff or keep it as a buffer to fund your lifestyle do other stuff right what's the reason for buying Tesla um well actually a good conversation with Prav uh he's been like um he's a uber Tesla bull him and Kathy I think are like the AR guys like uh I think the market and and Elon kind of tweeted about this or or the earnings

call I think earnings came out yesterday and Elon was look you either believe that we're solving like the self-driving um like self-driving has come up a very long way and I first experienced like self-driving in paloalto actually my I drove from Silicon Valley to to San Francisco like four years ago my buddy had like a model three I think or X or whatever and he didn't touch the wheel it was like a surreal experience I'm like you're not going to touch he's like no and we just had a normal conversation in the hour commute it was incredible and it's come such a long way and I think basically the argument that aric and someone like Prav makes is that uh it's not priced in and the benefits of like like autonomous driving are massive

and um I think that's like a sort of like a longtail call option on that um anyways I like it I like it but like for me it's like I don't know I pay attention when when when something's down a lot like I I I don't know there's something about feeling like you're getting stuff at a discount it but it might be one of those where it's like you're buying something that is already super overpriced right no I like it I like it yeah I I I have a Tesla do you dabble you know talk about but do you you dabble in the stock market I guess um no I don't I I have zero I Mo I sold most of about a year and a half ago I sold most of my equities and moved into coin I remember this when you you said

this and your private your Banker was like you're making a terrible mistake yeah I was like I want to buy some stocks he's like oh my God you never you never buy stock I was like I want to buy [Laughter] coinbase it's like you idiot yeah I don't know man I I am of the mind that if like concentration doesn't scare me because I still like I don't know for me it's um like I I I don't have any fear over the volatility so like when things go down 80% it doesn't spook me but for other people for like for example my wife like really does not like things

drawing down 80% so like the emotional toil of that is not worth the potential upside so I think you just you have to optimize for like the money that you will could be making and the and the return but also like the emotional side of it it's the same reason I don't trade is because like I just want to put my mental bandwidth into block works so yeah that makes sense I think you have to optimize for more things than just like the return so um let's let's talk eth ETFs I'm curious if the vanak guys had any interesting insights but like I I think my takeaways like these things massively outperformed so to run through some of the numbers here and I'll uh I should have put this together before before the episode maybe I can just share my screen um and show you guys

some tweets from Eric and James and the bitwise folks let's see I'll pull this up uh this is from Eric uh the the new eight so for people who have not been paying Too Close of attention the uh the the eth ETFs and I'll List It are the grayscale ethereum which is eth e which a lot of people are talking about that's grayscale then I shares which is Black Rock Fidelity bitwise grayscales mini trust van NE Franklin Invesco the Invesco Galaxy ETF and then 21 shares core so very similar list uh there was a uh uh Juan Juan Lee from bitwise uh put out the a nice comparison of the Bitcoin

vers eth day one comparison so total eth flows were 108 million that's 16% of the Bitcoin flows but actually 79% if you exclude the outflows from eth e um so if you what what people might be talking about in week one is the massive outflows from grayscales eth E and then I think the uh outperformance of inflows into the other ones so things like bitwise brought in a lot more than people expected things like the grayscale you know grayscales eth eth e had some pretty big outflows so I would say there's pretty big outperformance on day one what people always look at is okay well there's the

day one hype what about day two uh and day two had I think even bigger performance than day one or just just about as big of performances as day one so bring in I think there's over a billion in either 900 950 a billion in in volume in day two as well so pretty massive start to uh the ethereum ETFs yeah yeah it's pretty crazy um the volume that has gotten I don't know what to read into that my interpretation is I've always felt that like um the the EF is like the first time maybe the Wall Street understands that this is like a tech bet like buying the EF is like

a my suspicion is it's like it will open wall Street's eyes to hey this is a pure pure play Tech bet whereas Bitcoin is something different I think um I may be wrong but I just feel that like it might be the first time where Wall Street says hey I'm going to allocate this as part of like my tech bucket that's what I think too I well fir first and foremost I think the ethereum ETF was so big because it's it's the it's the one of the biggest regulatory Clarity steps we we've had right eth is not a security if there's an eth an ethereum ETF right it's eth is not a security the SEC finally made it official so that's just like a big stamp

of approval that opens things up and I think you have to call that out but yeah I think I think you're right like this is this week was when ethereum kind of crossed the chasm into the investment mainstream and I think they're two totally different investment thesis Bitcoin is like a hedge against chaos you heard um Larry fin talking we talked about this last week I read that quote like it's kind of like if you're depressed about something in the world or you're scared about something in the world it used the best way to get exposure to that is by going short now the best way to get exposures by going long Bitcoin eth I think is just the tech platform that could Foster the growth of crypto right it's kind of like

I don't know we we weal we had a call with a a very large institution ear early this week and uh he said look I've I have no idea what's I don't understand defi I don't understand nfts or the metaverse or or or Dows or any of these things but uh what I do understand is that when the internet grew it grew on top of these Cloud providers like AWS and Google cloud and uh Azure and if you just bought those Cloud providers you would have had exposure to all the websites that got built on top and he's like I'm buying ethereum because I don't know about nfts or gaming or stable coins or any that stuff I just want exposure to the underlying growth of this like digital economy and I think that really sums up the in it's also an

easy narrative to it's also like an easy narrative to get behind right it's like this is Chris Dixon talks about in his book read write own uh and like you know analyst reports have started to like appreciate ethereum I mean even as far back as the last cycle JP Moren was putting out a note that's saying like ethereum is far more interesting than Bitcoin it was like it's like a a tech kind of bet and it's like the next evolution of the internet and like that was before I mean that was oh over four years ago I I remember I I I picked this report up uh this uh JP Morgan analyst talk was talking about ethereum and they appreciated kind of the tech element of it and um what is it really exciting now is that eth is it sort of now forces uh

you know uh research analysts to start writing about ethereum and and that is I think going to be really interesting to observe even how they think about valuing something like ethereum on a cash flow basis based on fees me um like because again valuing Bitcoin is a commodity is very different it's it's a supply and demand but ethereum is is is very much uh could be valued on cash flows right and I'm actually quite excited to see the how the different analysts um cover um ethereum um and and start recommending or not the exposure to the

ETF 100% 100% it's also you might confirm or deny this but I think even it's also this when we think about the flows like it's I I didn't talk to vanic guys in terms of like how they saw the type of buyer for the ETF but I would assume it's similar to bitcoin which is it's still mostly self-directed accounts not uh institutional accounts right like not private banks of the world which is my understanding is a lot of a lot of large financial institutions private Banks can't recommend this the clients or won't unless the client specifically calls and says hey I want you to buy me this right yeah so at the coinbase

summit the head of in the I think it was head of ETF products or head of Chief investment officer or whatever from from Black Rock and cathywood both said the same thing which is about 80% of the buying for the Bitcoin ETF is coming from self self-directed individuals right and it's not even the indiv uh not even really the institutions right now institutions make up about 20% of the buying right um I have another takeaway from the EF seeing this which is bit uh bitwise just continues to massively out perform um it's like very remarkable I was looking at some of the data uh I mean they they were beating out Fidelity like they're beating out Fidelity in the first 90 minutes they're beating out Fidelity in the first day like they just

had massive volum it was grayscale obviously because grayscales had their product in the market for a long time then Black Rock then bitwise so Fidelity is beating out uh excuse me yeah bitwise is beating out Fidelity vanck Franklin Templeton best go and I think that just uh you got to you got to stop and just respect it for for a second and think about how much work they've put in but also like yeah it's kind of a new era of like these crypto native companies coming to Wall Street you would you would think that Fidelity and Fidelity way more distribution Fidelity's been in the Bitcoin game for a long time too right they've been mining since like 2015 so that's very true important to understand also that

uh what is really cool about bitwise is that they've publicly committed to um allocating 10% of the revenue I believe or or the fees that they generate from the ETF to fund open source development of ethereum oh I didn't realize that that's cool yeah yeah yeah I don't I I gotta ask and wonder like why I mean when you look the fees for these products are very different uh but what's like the end game for like grayscale like can can you explain with your right like what it's like self-sabotage like why why their fees are like they haven't changed their fees where it's like

they're like five or 10 times more than normally e like ETFs are like anywhere from like 25 basis points to 75 basis points maybe 1% but like gray scale is like two and a half it's a crazy or two I I really don't understand the game and they're like just I I thought that was I originally thought that was like son and shine's play and then it didn't work out and then son and shine got the boot and then they put in place someone new but then they just continue running with the strategy so I really don't get it just feels uh yeah feels like self-sabotaging I think Barry's just trying to just milk the cow just like yeah I don't know maybe bar Barry's trying to hang up the

cleats and just uh no idea yeah it's it's very very strange um there's going in go ahead what what about uh I mean coinbase like coin I know I'm we're both talking about how we own coinbase and we're both biased but like they are uh the custodian on eight of the nine eth ETFs here uh on in one on one hand I'm like w that's awesome because like gocoin Bas congrats to them on the other hand I'm like that feels like some concentration risk that Lord O Mercy please have your setup cor I don't love to see honestly so

I don't and I don't actually know what people are doing like I don't know if there's a a three-party custo like hopefully these guys have set up like two or three party custodian systems but yeah yeah when I think of this is um you need insurance I'm sure they have some insurance policy in place but maybe not but I'm actually this is a company that I'm investing in um that I'm quite excited about um they're probably the they are the farthest along that I've observed and like regulator Insurance like um doing it the right way and it's by a large large financial institution so I'm again these things like get solved with proper insurance and Risk Management Solutions so yeah so

final final numbers I think from day two it was I think on day two the Bitcoin ETFs traded 1.5 billion and the eth ETF traded 1 billion so if you asked me if you asked me going into this week I would have said eth probably would have traded about about 20% of Bitcoin and we're looking at yeah about 60 70% so yeah I would call that a big success yeah yeah yeah I would really like to bring on someone that can uh maybe spanic guys or maybe it's uh Eric from Bloomberg to just uh where are these flows coming from is it uh like even like hey is there rotation away from the Bitcoin ETF into the eth ETF or

is it new capital is it most ly still self-directed accounts what's the average ticket size what's the holding like all these kind of things I think is going to be really interesting to observe over time right yeah yeah um all right we were talking about the Germany selling well what what's Bitcoin doing today um Market's a little down right so I mean after yeah it's at 64 so it's interesting there's this price action that Alex Krueger called out so Wednesday the markets got clobbered uh the qes were down 3 and a half% Bitcoin was down 2.2% uh eth eth was down 7 and a half%

and soul was up 1.5% so what do you make of some of this like there's not only Divergence in equities to crypto so some some days equities will be down now and crypto will be up and and and the inverse is true and but now you're starting to see like Bitcoin down two eth's down seven Soul's up one like is this people trying to front run I mean is like eth ETF week is this people starting to try to front run a salon ETF what what what do you make of that I mean uh I'll tell you what my long-term thinking is and I is that you're just seeing Soul Converge on E and I think it's rotation internally

in crypto where I think more people starting to realize that um I wouldn't want to read too much into a day's performance or under performance um because it's just noise I think but on uh I think if you were to trace even back to our predictions in December earlier this year like um I was I was talking to you and I mean I was talking about U I just don't think that Soul exactly this this is a really good one and then Kyle also kind of went something to the effect of like you know they were of the mind that Sana was going to flip

ethereum across a number of metrics um I also shared that view earlier this back in December and and that was like where my thesis is predicated on which is you're already seeing salonic surpass ethereum across a variety of metrics except price market cap yeah so for those who aren't watching on YouTube there's a really interesting chart that Ryan Connor who's a a research analyst at blockwork shared uh July 1st so about three and a half weeks ago he said the next meeting meaningful flippening in crypto is likely Dex volume market share will probably take a few months and it showed this chart of kind of the eth Dex market share collapsing and the salana market share

going up um and it took yeah took took three week he said it'll probably take a few months it actually ended up taking a few weeks I said the most interesting consequential milestone in crypto markets today salana has surpassed ethereum in trailing 30-day Dex volume for the first time ever it is now the most used Chain by that measure and if you can actually look at some of these charts so you can look at the 30-day Dex volume Solana just passed eth for the first time ever uh 30-day Dex volume eth and soul you can look at that here um these are just different ways of showing it in percentage or the amount the volume volume market share and uh top chains by market share so you've got salon salana e um actually this is a really

interesting chart right chart right here so top chains by market share 30-day Dex volume salana is at 29 a half% eth is at 29.3% arbitrum is third at 12.8% BNB at 10% base base up to eight% so base is now top five in Dex volumes and then there's a big drop off it goes blast at one and a half op at one and a half avax at one madic at one Su one so very interesting data from Ryan there was some push back on this post which I think was phenomenal kudos to Ryan and the research team um that should you be counting the L l2s right arbitrum and um you know blast uh and base and there's

some pretty I actually don't think that you should be counting it or um because I mean that the fees that are being posted back to the L1 are like not very substantial oh I I I definitely don't I definitely don't think that you should because I mean you're going to start seeing these l2s break off into their own chains I think soon so like you you saw what blast was doing like I think you will probably see more and more of that what what should be most of the because because if you go back to the episode we recorded with Kyle which high straight this few is and most of the of the Val like when you think about how to Value an L1 I think most of the cash flow is coming from me capture and not

fees um and so a lot of the me is captured at the L2 and is not shared back to the L1 uh so the posting data is to back to the L1 and the settlement is sort of like inconsequential and small over time and and more so over time uh so most of the value capture is can to happen at the L2 so I almost think of them as like for that reason I don't think you count it in this analysis yeah now what maybe should be counted here is there's all these so op's got the op stack arbitrum got arbitrum stylist there starting to be these l3s or other l2s built on it so like optimism has base Zora mode and these are all other chains like that data should probably be

put back into the and I think we talked about this in the episode with Steven from arbitrum is just yeah I think maybe you you you factor in all the fees the actual fees um that are flowing back to the L1 or the L2 from the L3 or whatever um but nonetheless I mean I think the I I don't think you should be get too caught up in the Nuance uh I think it the the point stands which is uh think about the criticisms around oh salana is just a meme coin chain I'm like I hear you a lot of the activities like been meme coins but uh there's also a fair amount of healthy projects like

helas and uh other deepend projects um you've had um you know what is it pump. fun um you have uh which is I guess meme coin activity but what I'm what I'm trying to say is I think mem coins and the the fact that Meme coins have thrived largely in salana is telling you that this is this is the most retail friendly chain and other breakup out apps while social has worked outside right you have Fantasy on blast and uh FR Tech and what have you um I just think that the fact that Meme coins have mostly thrived in salana to a greater

extent than any other chain it just tells you where most of the activi is going to continue to happen and that's the most important thing in my mind hey everyone Jason here I wanted to talk about something that's been on my mind a lot recently and that is where are all of crypto's killer apps we often ask this question on the show so I'm excited to tell you about Empire's latest partner anoma the universal intent machine intents are a new way to build daps enabling users to say what they want without needing to specify how it's done let's say you have an nft on one chain but you want to swap it for a token on another chain to make things even worse you also don't know which bridge to trust or how to navigate

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$10 or more head on over to my prize.com invite Empire link will be in the description of today's episode did you see trth talking about bit tensor yes so I'll play this tell me if you tell me if you can hear this can you hear that yeah yeah okay so jamat got a lot of [ __ ] because

he's like you know people were like oh he's just dumping on retail I gonna take the other side of this actually I think that this is what we talked about at the beginning of the year this was one my predictions which is that everyone wants allocation to AI the best way to do that is via Nvidia Nvidia I still don't know how to pronounce it price looks price looks too high is it Nvidia or Nidia Nvidia Nvidia okay thank you yeah uh price looks too high the chart looks ridiculous they're like oh what what other AI things do I buy and then it's like Microsoft and Facebook they're like well I don't want like that feels so like mid curve okay let me try to get more cute with this and then they there's no other things they can buy

except for these like super risky Tech deals in Silicon Valley that they maybe don't have access to so they start looking at aosh and render and bit tensor and things like that and I I actually I mean that was one of the predictions for the year I think it's starting to come true and so like I mean these things trade out I mean bit tens are well trading at eight billion fully diluted up to 10 I think it might be down to six or something but it's not got a nice little like 10 per choth pump so yeah well people should be cautious right but uh yeah there's a AI is a sector that I've allocated to not I don't know any liquid tokens um but I've invested in exol

laabs which by the way fascinating stuff it's like running your nodes on running like models on on your computers like people should go follow Muhammad or some of the EXO guys like they're run basically the idea is to run your models at the edge right computing so with uh one your MacBook or two MacBooks uh you have really good performance run like llama um really cool stuff like guys from Oxford very smart they're really doing uh some really cool stuff so that's exol Labs I've invested in Ren uh Renzo uh I've invested in uh myell um and hyperbolic I think those are maybe one or two I'm missing but

those are and they're all doing really interesting stuff uh but um I actually want to do a part two AI episode uh bring back Casey who's someone that I lean on a lot she's launching her fun topology which is very much focused on AI um and then bring on another founder because last time we had oh Danny for modulus right um but we yeah I think we're due for uh an update on the AI stuff yeah yeah I like it um you see the senator lumus Bitcoin Reserve plan oh yeah all right so I can talk about this so there was a rumors starting about last week that um Trump was going to announce something at

the Bitcoin conference I think he's speaking on Saturday yeah and then lumus is speaking today on Frid or on we're recording this Thursday she's speaking on on on Friday when which is when you'll be listening to this um and so there were rumors starting by last week that Trump was going to announce this that Bitcoin was going to be a a reserve asset for the US seemed kind of crazy but you never really know with Trump and then Senator lumus came out and announced or I don't actually know if she announced I think fox fox reported and they kind of scooped it that on Friday she's gonna share something on stage at the Bitcoin conference with um uh telsey Gabbert that they are going to uh craft new legislation that could

try to establish Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset by requiring the Federal Reserve to hold Bitcoin as a strategic Reserve asset so uh I don't think this will get ped because lumus is like one of the most farri people in the Senate that you can possibly get out of Wyoming and like a lot of her stuff doesn't really get past uh this is a little more for show but I do think it's interesting because she's speaking on Friday and then Trump is speaking on Saturday and what would be very what the the most interesting thing outcome here which often times tends to happen is Trump hearing this and trying to get more support support from the Bitcoin crowd and saying ah I like I

like what lus said on Friday and then someone asked him the question now you've got the headlines in every mainstream media publication that Trump supports plan to make Bitcoin a global Reserve currency asset and like in that outcome I mean that's you meme it into existence that's the that's the Bitcoins at 100K before you know it outcome so well I thought you were gonna save a million but yeah I mean sure calm down there Hold Back Your Enthusiasm that's the that's the Kathy Woods 1.5 million yeah um but it is like it is aligned with what Mark Cuban said a couple weeks ago with he said look someone uh mentioned this because right

after the episode we recorded last week I I tweeted about like in what version would this make sense and the risks potentially around announcing this you're kind of dipping your hand or you're concerned about the dollar um but but I think uh someone mentioned I mean the US government already holds like what is it a couple thousand Bitcoin I mean it's uh quite a lot just that they've confiscated no they they own much more than that they own like they're the largest holder of Bitcoin that I believe it's I forget the exact figure non-trivial not um I in the grand scheme of their Reserve basket yes but uh I think it's like one one to one and a half perent of all Bitcoin in

circulation they own um so anyways um someone had mentioned so that's held I think in the Department of Justice or whatever and so they could transfer that amount into the Strategic Reserve um as a starting point at least and someone was mentioning that just that doing that alone I think there was a clip on CNBC that was talking about this I forget who exactly mentioned this but I think it's pretty interesting observation which is just the transfer of it alone I think would give markets a lot of confidence in that they're not going to sell it and they're going to hold it um unlike Germany um and that would be that act alone would be pretty

you know pretty meaningful to for the market right in terms of their intent of what to do with that Bitcoin because you know they could on if they wanted to just sell it right at any point like but if you're holding it in the the treasur right in the Department of Treasury like in the balance sheet then I think at least it would signal to the market their intent to hold it on a longterm basis yeah yeah cus resigned from assari this week right yeah do you know what he's gonna do next uh I do I do but I cannot is it is it uh politics related um I don't think I should blink

twice ladies and gentlemen he's blinking three times I don't know what to make of this he's doing what he should be doing that's what that's what I think sounds like he's found his true calling I guess over yeah good for him well you know who's taking over misari by the way uh Eric is Eric Eric Turner so like there there two two so uh celus has a co-founder Dan I think his name is but he kind of took a step back a couple years ago and then there were two early hires Ben O'Neal and Eric Turner Ben left a couple years ago went to different places chaos labs and some some other places Eric has stayed around I think Eric's either the chief Revenue

officer or the COO today um and he's great Eric Eric is awesome I I really really like him good good operator good just like level-headed guy um and has done great work at Masari and so he's taking it over as the interim CEO and then I think they're going to try to find another CEO it sounds like that's great yeah I don't know comma is not speaking at the Bitcoin conference there were some rumors that she was going to and that she's not actually I would like to way pick your brain here on the political expert that you are what do you make of this so like I was uh listening to two different like Banks organized calls around this election update this week and both of them were like the election is going to be very close like

um and then actually Prav was the one that brought it to my attention like the last election in the key swing States It Was Won by a margin of less than 100,000 votes yeah and my question to you is do you think that they're like do a do you think it's actually accurate that this would be a close election and if so how meaningful will a crypto voter single issue voter B to potentially determine the outcome in these key swing States I think it will with Biden when Biden was running it I don't think it would have been close I think Trump would have had a historic sweep on the level

of uh Dwight Eisenhower or Reagan second term or um Nixon Nixon like you know one of these like 20 point one of you know they they win by like 20 points or something like that now that KLA is running uh even though I think crypto people don't want to hear this my take is that it's going to be much closer than people than people actually think um she had the like absolute record like ble blew past every record for fundraising in a 24 or 48 hour period um and really it comes down to like for 43% of people in this country were already going to vote Democrat no no matter what it's like 43% of people

were going to vote Democratic no no ma no matter who was up there and so it basically just comes down to the other to the to the yeah the swing states which is what Arizona uh I won't try to do this Pennsylvania yeah yeah there so there's six there's six swing States basically and so yeah I think you said perov said this it really does come down to like a 100,000 voters I think what these people don't understand is that crypto is a much more powerful group of people than they understand today and I think the Republicans and Trump understand that right there's 50 or 60 or whatever number million Americans hold hold crypto let's say it's uh so let's say

it's let's say it's 50 million right if you want to try to back do like a Consulting type project 50 million so that's probably so that's I would guess there's one to two million of those let's say there's let's say there's five of the 50 million are in swing States so that's five million in swing States and then let's say 10% of the population is uh is in is is independent maybe 10% is is like undecided right now so that's of the five million in swing state who's un then then you're backing into like 500,000 undecided people in swing states where cryp they care about crypto a lot and that's I think why you're seeing Trump like lean so heavily into this if

I were Cala and like I got that dog in me trying to win this election like I'm I'm doing everything I can get to like she's got to get no novag grats Mark Cuban and Anthony scari just Shilling the hell out of her to the crypto crowd and I would be trying to appeal to them right so that's that's what I would be doing I I mean I guess you could invert and say is being very Pro crypto and being vocal about it going to hurt you in in capturing that those undecided voters that are going to matter an election day I don't think it'll hurt I I think it only benefits you I think so I I think that's the calculus that the team the Trump campaign teams actually made and it's

like it's not whereas in the prior election people should remember he was not very Pro he was not pro crypto he was vocal against it now he's totally changed his tune and I think that's the simple calculus it's like he believes that it's not going to hurt him this time around because crypto continues to be more in the sight gist and it's actually going to help him win um in these swing States and so yes you best believe that there are probably more or at least 50 100,000 people in these swing states that will make a decision because of crypto or be marginally influenced to to skew towards your direction of your pro crypto I mean and you can just see it like changing on crypto Twitter like there's some people who are very very very like Pro Trump and they're like yeah you know if

kamla if kamla like became Pro crypto I'd probably vote for her like that's I think that's an indication of how people feel in general now if they're whether or not like you agree with that or not and I know there's a one argument which is like look like don't don't buy what the Dems are putting out right now like I I so it's it's it's everyone's personal belief but like I do think and I I have I know colleagues and friends who will vote for Trump but if kamla became very Pro crypto in the next couple months like they they would vote for KLA and so that's like that's it happening on his mic I would want to see a more substantial plan around what her what actually Pro crypto means concretely same same same same but look

like if you if you fast forward this out it's like okay so she'll probably pick if I were her who would I pick as VP I'd probably pick Mark Kelly in Arizona because like where the Dems are probably weakest is immigration stuff um and Mark Kelly's like in in Arizona he's a Dem who's kind of like tough on the border so I'd probably pick and he's an astronaut like you know so I'd probably pick him or I'd pick Josh airo in Pennsylvania but he's Jewish and people don't like Jewish people so I feel like I can say that as a my last name is yanowitz so I feel like I'm allowed to say that so um yeah I would uh I don't know you do that you pick like Mar Kelly and then you like go super heavy Pro crypto and like I think the race will be

tighter than people think we'll see prediction markets are telling a different story but obviously we're going to continue to monitor that and you know the the peak the the odds of trump winning peaked um right after the assassination attempt now they'll probably only going to continue to go down um but yeah I I still think he wins the election yeah um we should do we're getting polygon involved in permissionless in a okay we're getting uh poly Market involved actually and poly gone involved in permissionless um we're talking to Shane right now about speaking we I'd love to have Shane on the podcast because I really do want to do there's like poly Market has really I

I tweeted this thing out I I sent a text to a friend who sends me polym market charts all the time yeah non- crypto guy works in uh private equity and uh I I basically I just text him I said did you know that polym market is buil on ethereum which I was wrong it's built on polygon but screw me he said I said did you know polym Market is built on ethereum he said LOL had absolutely no clue is there any relative value to it being blockchainbased honestly I just see it as value for utility it offers could care less about the underlying Tech I just like the data it provides and quantifying odds of meaningful [ __ ] happening in this world so I thought that was cool but it'll be to see how Shane and poly Market are thinking about like keeping the attention after after

the election after the election because that's been the problem I think you and I have been looking at a couple interesting even one today this morning I mean everyone wants to build now a prediction market for Contex i' like the SE round I was a Pari in poly Market yeah yeah yeah was partici what did Shane do before do you know he was early in ethereum he was very much in nfts actually and he had like been early in ethereum very young at at a very young age actually and uh he's just a very Scrappy like in the weeds kind of guy and he was very active in the ethereum ecosystem and paying attention early on early in nft so he was talking to me about you know he was collecting on um what is it because that round was led also by I think uh um uh

Nick from uh one confirmation or so we he participated in that round as well so anyways uh he was also early in nfts so um yeah Shane was a a very Scrappy agile kind of Builder like in the weeds and so yeah but um The Challenge I think of these prediction markets is yeah what happens after the election what happens to the tail end of markets and do people want to bet on these things and can you convince people to you either put the money yourself to get me you need to get a critical size for these markets to be useful and the other component is like it's like there's different not to get too much into it but like the early

Redemption feature is something that is I've been thinking about quite a bit because it's like the opportunity costs like back in January putting money into uh even the US election markets you know that's going to be resolved in November and there's an opportunity cost of capital in that during that period and in crypto the opportunity cost of capital is very high right and so yeah I think um I think we'll I'll put it this way I think we're going to see many different iterations of prediction markets um on the back of poly Market success that particularly address the bootstrapping of of of these markets right and maybe allowing features to get users to front the

capital to come in and out of these markets more easily as opposed to being binary outcomes um yeah so but yeah everyone's every ecosystem every you know there's six projects that I'm looking at right now I'm like uh I don't know yeah all right man good pod good chat yeah yeah really good um just as a side note I continue to interview for um analyst feel really good about that yes well I have a short list I'm continuing to talk to a few folks but it's just been fascinating really encouraged by the interest uh across you know people from all over the world all kinds of

backgrounds all kinds of Ages like really exciting um so yeah I'll uh I think the program is going to I'm setting everything in motion I think we'll be off the ground by you know later this year but yeah I'm really excited about it have you noticed a trend in who you like like is it like DG or is it like ex Crypt VC people or is it like what's the trend of who you like it's no different than investing in a startup I think it's just people that people that um are very have been in crypto for some time have taken hits have made mistakes have and are very willing to talk about um that and so I usually have 20 30 like I

usually talk to them back and forth and then if I like it I'll schedule a call and then in that call I'm just very open-ended like looking to see how they think and I think you just get a good feeling about someone that is very the biggest maybe you also I mean I'll ask you like what you look at for when you're hiring a block works but for me it's like a sense of true ownership and accountability yeah and obviously drive like you love it like you love talking about it you love crypto like you're here you're using stuff but it starts with like accountability and ownership because then I think that's why I love liquid markets a lot and I never thought I'd actually like them as much because I was coming from a venture background but

there's something about hedge funds or just investing in in a something that just con ly either telling you you're right or wrong because uh it's a bit harder right ADV Venture you put money in and you're 10 years down the road or four in crypto or three you're you're going to be told if you're right or not but you actually don't have to live through the day-to-day of the ball and like the market you're absolutely wrong you buy something that's down 10 20 30% you're like oh okay I'm an idiot or no and I think something about that in investing in liquids markets is the the intellectual stimulation and the honesty that it requires and managing your emotions and all that I think so I I

think uh yeah those are the things I'm looking out for and I've I've met some really interesting people in this in this process so already it's been a really nice Journey nice that's great when do you think you'll make the higher I'm pretty sure I already know who they're gonna be um love that yeah but it was like and it was actually like the first I interviewed the first three people two out of three but I'm allowing myself to meet like other candidates um yeah but yeah by September I think do they work at a fund currently or at a at a crypto company or are they just an individual without tipping my hand too

much but one yes y one does not you're like they might work at blockworks research I'm not no no no no no no no and they're from like different totally different places um and age too like 10 years apart that's great yeah I'm really excited nice see it's in a good experiment that is a good experiment all right folks good pod thanks for listening uh permissionless tickets go up next week in pricing they're $499 now I think we're moving them to 599 we've had a crazy month of buying uh July was our biggest month by a by like 4X or something like that so yeah go get your tickets if you have if

you haven't got them yet yeah tickets go up July 29th I think so yep and if you want to I guess it's a play pickle ball you know oh and we have a code it's empire 10 you'll say Empire 10 10% 10% usually that's how it works every every time after the podcast of marketing team is like you forgot to mention permissionless [ __ ] link link click Link Link all right everyone well I hope you're having a great summer or winter wherever you are in the hemisphere uh but um yeah interesting time so thanks to for listening and whatever we didn't get to read comments actually but we'll have to

do that we'll have to do that next time so feel free to drop us one thing I'll mention last episode Yana was asked people if they wanted to hear about Founders and early narratives we had a great episode that we recorded earlier this week with the founder Jonathan from sky trade that episode should go live in the next couple of days I really enjoyed that conversation just from an education perspective of how air rights work the nuance and um and why actually I think it's going to be one of our better episodes to everyone understands real estate but I think it's one of those like we really went and focused on like why does this actually need to be built

on crypto like why crypto and I I think that's going to be it's coming at the right time where people are really a skeptical of there's no utility in this space and we need more apps and less infra and two real estate is something that a lot of people particular as they pay more attention with the ETF can understand and relate to so I'm really excited to see how that performs and uh you know if people like it would love to continue to you know do more of those type of episodes 100% 100% so all right everyone have a great Friday thanks for listening we'll see you next week yeah know have a good weekend man thanks for watching today's episode just wanted to quickly mention that the wait for crypto's killer app wve is nearly over thanks to today's sponsor anoma the

universal intent machine to stay up to date with anoma you can follow them at x.com anoma or sign up for the newsletter at ana. net thanks again to anoma for sponsoring today's episode [Music]