How 2025's crypto pain sets up 2026, with Jesse Eckel

Transcript

Basically, they spelled out their plan early 2025 as we're going to give the medicine in 2025 so that we can um reap the benefits in 2026. What's up everybody? It's LG Ducet here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that treats every market chill like the prelude to a meltup. Today is December 10th, 2025. Bitcoin is at $92,300 and the UFO FOMC presser is in just less than 2 hours from this recording. So, by the time you listen to it, we will have seen the results on the market if any. And if you've been feeling like the market is coiling and you've been watching liquidity and the macro and Bitcoin all drift kind of out of sync from each other and wondering what that all means, today's episode is for you because Jesse Eckle is back and

it's just me and him today. It's a onev one session with the man who has been one of the most bullish people on our show when it comes to a 2026 super cycle for crypto and maybe for a lot of other things. He's been very early on the liquidity signals and his latest video lays out the full recipe for a 200K Bitcoin and he's going to tell us all about that today. Today's episode is brought to you by Reserve ETFs. Get exposure to the entire crypto market in a single token chain link. Break the interoperability barrier and power the future of tokenized finance and bridge. Power your business with instant stable coin payments. No friction, no banks, just global finance made simple. Let's get them out here.

Jesse, welcome back to the show, man. >> Thanks. It's good to be back. dude. Okay, let's dive right into it, man. Because um I think I have a lot of questions. We're It's going to be a packed show. There's a lot we want to extract from you. You've been one of the loudest believers in a 2026 super cycle that it's not just going to be another up year, but something like structurally different right now. What are the core forces that make you so confident that this isn't just like another, you know, cyclical four-year, we're going to maybe go down, build up to the next having, but the beginning of a completely new type of cycle in crypto.

>> Okay. Yeah. Let me just clarify really quick with what you said. So, what most people believe is the four-ear cycle, like you said, and what that would mean for 2026 would be that it would be a bare market year. So, a typical 4-year cycle post blowoff top year would mean that Bitcoin basically retraces all the way down to its old all-time high, which in this case would only be 69,000. It's not that's like not that crazy, but um you know, typically you have this big run up like last time we went up to 69,000 and we retraced a little bit below the old all-time high down to 16,000. And so, it would mean it would be like a pretty catastrophic year according to the four-year cycle. And it would typically the four-ear cycle um bottoms about a year in advance of the the peak. So if the peak was October,

then we'd see the bottom in October of 2026. So So that's the four-ear cycle. My belief is that that's not at all what's going to happen. And in fact, 2026 should be what most people expected 2025 to be in that it should be kind of where the the big action sits. Now, the reason I believe that is because all previous cycles mapped perfectly to big pulses in year overear liquidity or just an easier way to say it is like they mapped to toward uh to to real economic activity. A lot of people highlight the ISM. It's actually a really good one to highlight because it it maps toward it kind of shows when uh the economy is booming and crypto is the last one to eat, especially altcoins. They're

they're the last child to eat. Okay? So, if the market isn't doing exceptionally well and you you don't see this like kind of blow over into the into the economy and everything's blowing, you know, doing well, um you're not going to see any action in the alts. And so, between 2022 and today, we haven't seen any of that that good action. Um we haven't seen the ISM, it's barely peaked above 50 and then dropped right back down. It's basically been flat. If you look at the chart, um it goes all the way back to 1948. And you can see it, it does like waves. Um, and it kind of looks like a heartbeat. And 2022, it literally looks like the heartbeat flatlined.

It's actually, if you zoom out and look at the whole picture, it's actually weird. Uh, there there's nothing uh like it on the chart. And all of these things originate from policy. And so, um, everything so like the the beginning of any bull market is birthed from some sort of policy decision uh that happened at some point. uh the Bitcoin, the birth of Bitcoin and the reason it exists was a policy decision from the 2008 um crisis. Okay, it there you see it at the end right there. You see that uh flatlined on the chart. That's exactly what I'm talking about. Look at that's 1948 till today. There's nothing like it on the chart. That's crazy if you think about it cuz that's that's not like a year of data. That is 1948 to to today.

Okay? So it's it's an exceptional period we've been living through. And and like this chart alone should tell you, wait a minute, maybe something might be different this time around because you know what? This is a pattern going back to 1948 and it broke. So everything originates in policy. 2008 you had a financial crisis. The policy response to that is what birthed what we know as the four-year cycle. Okay. So um there was a there is a very specific policy response and it's actually a pretty exceptional one. Pre208, money creation actually came from banks, private banks, and obviously they're the ones that kind of got us into trouble in 2008. It was kind of a big deal. Because of that, regulators came in and they kind of slapped them on the wrist and

said, "Hey, we're going to bail you guys out because, you know, you guys are we have to, but but if we but but by doing this, we're going to slap a whole bunch of regulations and restrictions on you and and kind of handcuff you." And and they kind of went overboard like they tend to do, right? they they you know kind of wanted to make sure everyone understood, hey, we're bailing them out, but we're we're putting them in timeout and it's going to be bad. And they did. And they kind of hamstrung the banks. And so what you saw is money creation switched from private banks to the central banks. And so, uh, central banks became, and this is kind of the era we all grew up in. So you're like, oh, QE and, you know, all this kind of stuff.

And that's where a lot of the liquidity creation has come. And so you had this four-year cycle that that's repeated since then from that policy decision. Now what what's unique and what's happened since then is we had a pretty crazy event that sort of accelerated things and caused a big shift in a change in the pattern. That was the co now co during co you shut down the entire world. The the entire world hit pause on everything. That's actually unprecedented. It was it was a crazy crazy thing because there was a ton of cracks in the system. policy response was towards easing and not just kind of easing but like this crazy easing we've uh on a scale we've really never seen before. Okay. And so in 2020 through 2021 we saw this huge liquidity wave and

it's it's crazy if you look back at it you're like wow. Um people show those charts of like money printing and how it just goes vertical in that in that time period. And so that was a crazy policy decision. And obviously it it makes sense that that would be a pattern disruptor and and that would um disrupt a lot and break a lot of these patterns. Uh but it also accelerated a lot of things. It accelerated, you know, this weird path we were on with central banks doing the money creation, these the banks being in jail, all that kind of stuff. It it kind of caused people to rethink these things in some ways. And so between 2022 and today, we've been in this really big tightening zone. And so, um, things getting getting tighter and you've seen cracks form in parts of the system. In 2023, we had the banking

crisis and remember the the Fed had to step in. Uh, you had Silicon Valley Bank and all that kind of stuff. The Fed had to step in and say, "Hey, we need to fix this." But, and in between here, we've had like weird credit things. Um, we had the yen carry trade. You know, there's there's been signs that like, hey, things are getting kind of weird. But also, you had this because of that big liquidity burst um in 2020 in 2021. It's not like everyone was starving. Like there was kind of pockets of liquidity here and there. Uh it's taken a little bit for that system to drain and everything to unwind. Now in July, in late Jul or or sorry, late August, what we saw was the the RRP rundown. Now the RP was sort of the last cushion from this craziness that that we've seen from

the Fed over the last couple years. You the tightening we saw in 2022 was the fastest in the last 40 years. and the the RP sort of cushions as they're sucking liquidity out of the system. That ran down end of August and what you saw is uh Bitcoin ran into an all-time high early August and then as soon as that RRP ran down, you saw things just get crazy. Okay, price started dropping um and just basically didn't stop dropping from late August until, you know, late November, December or whenever it stopped. And then you saw that liquidation event in October and all this kind of stuff. All of that was a secondhand effect of that um of the RP running down of the TGA rebuild which

happened um what was happening in early August too, but it was cushioned by the RP um and then kind of hit its uh climax in September. You had a step up in issuance in early October which was kind of hard for the plumbing to absorb. Um you that liquidation event was just catastrophic. That really wrecked a lot of things. And then um you had the government shutdown. It was like this crazy perfect storm of things that kind of broke the back of the system. Point point being I honestly forget your real original question, but I was kind of doing a big zoomed zoomed out thing. Point being >> that's great.

>> The uh the current state of of things is a result of that is kind of the the grand finale of the tightening phase. Okay. Uh that that is the grand we just went through it. We just lived through the grand finale of that tightening phase. Now people realize, wait a minute, things have been too too tight for too long. Everyone keeps saying inflation's going to come back. Where is it? Where is the inflation? Like obviously it's there, but it but it hasn't gotten catastrophically out of control like everyone feared. And that's because, you know, people kind of have recency bias. Inflation got out of control 2021. That was from in part the money printing, but also in part the the fact that you had all these shipping uh issues and all that kind of stuff. And so, uh, now people are saying, you know

what, maybe maybe it's time to ease a little bit, um, or or at least stop tightening, right? So, they ended QT. We haven't started balance sheet expansion of any kind, but they have started to stop the tightening. We're now getting rate cuts. And so, we've gone from a tightening cycle, and now the next natural evolution of that is into an easing cycle. Okay? They have to ease to to fix these cracks. And so, my entire bullcase is that's this has always been the pattern. what I'm talking all this stuff I'm talking about this has always been the pattern because we've gone from tightening to easing that should mean 2026 a and possibly even later like I'm not set on it for sure ending 2026 I think it's most likely it does uh but I'm not set on that but 2026 on forward should be a much better picture especially for

crypto and especially for alts um and the thing to watch as many people have highlighted is that ISM chart is is a pretty good indicator once that starts peaking up um you know that it's more of a good indicator if things are probably going to end anytime soon, like the musical chairs is is about to stop. Um, but but that'll be a better sign. If you saw ISM way above 50 and alts still weren't cracking higher, um, that would freak me out. But yeah, uh, the best is still ahead. That's my thesis. I'm going to pause there for a second. If you're listening to this and thinking, okay, but what is the move I should actually be making? Then going pro is for you.

Every week, our research team drops a full deep dive on the biggest themes everyone else misses. Plus, you get access to our full Milkroad Pro portfolio that has real-time buy and sell signals and access to our Discord where our analysts will answer any question you have. If you want to level up, honestly, that's where you got to do it. Hit the link below. So, I just want to circle back on a few things to make sure people understand some of these terms, which we do we do talk about them often on Milk Road and on Milkroad macro. Um, but really quick, the ISM is basically whether is a measure of if uh American businesses are expanding or contracting. Correct. And I believe it's taken every month is it's like a survey taken or how does that work? It's a monthly it's it's um it's manufacturing

but the important reason for you to so it doesn't always carry over like there there could be things that are doing well that it's not um showing but it is a really really at least historically it's a really really good indicator of when things the economy is booming. Okay. So people like to point to hey the stock market's at all-time highs therefore the economy is booming. Uh but but that's not correct. Obviously the economy is not booming right now. People feel poorer than ever. Nobody feels like they can afford anything. Um, people point to the Black Friday sales and they say, "Hey, look at people that record breaking Black Friday sales. Economy is booming." But, but again, that's not an accurate uh reflection of of the current state of things. You only need to go talk to your neighbor and and go talk to

some of your friends to know that the economy is not booming. And some of that's inflation. Like inflation goes up, of course, people are spending more in dollar terms, but you know, maybe they're not buying as much stuff or you I don't know. A lot of these stats do get kind of lost, but I do think the ISM is a really good indicator of when the economy truly is booming. Um, and we're kind of going through a boom period. And like I said, alts are the last child to eat. So, you have to have um the froth in the system for alts to do well. That that might change um as some of this legislation comes through and crypto is more legitimized. Uh but but up until this point, it really has been kind of the tail end of like the most frothy period of uh that boom. That's when

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See how chain link is linking the world by going to milkroad.com/chainlink. And the reverse repro program um is what exactly? Like it's it measures I think like how the Fed removes cash out of the system. Is that what it is? Can you expand that a little bit? >> The only important thing to to note about the RP or or the only thing I guess for for listeners that matters is it was a cushion against the TGA rebuild. So, as the TGA rebuild was happening, it didn't if the RP was like like not drawn down, then it it didn't really matter necessarily because that cushioned that that um liquidity drain.

As soon as the RP ran down, that cushion was gone and the uh liquidity drain started coming from bank reserves. And when it started coming from bank reserves, that means uh uh liquid liquidity conditions get fragile. And so those liquidity conditions started to get fragile. It was supposed to end in the end of September. Then October you had the government shutdown and the step up in issuance. Um and and then it just got abysmal and that's why price is down right now. Um plus the liquidation event like it it really was this weird freak perfect storm event plus the fact that it happened right at the right when the everyone believes the four-year cycle is going to happen. So all these things came together and it's been horrible. Um but you can see like as soon as the government shutdown ended um TGA rebuild ended in um the start of October soon as

the government shutdown ended and then the step of an issuance was absorbed within like a couple weeks like the plumbing system got used to it. You you've seen that price no longer is like you know running down as fast as you know it can. It had a clear trajectory like it's going down and then like since then it almost feels like it wants to go up uh but the market's just too scared still. um you know the the market every time it goes up people are scared and nervous and so it feels like it needs to go through this consolidation period. Uh I don't know how long I would love for it to break out in December. Maybe it does but it often times like if you remember the tariff liberation day. Uh the price had to go through like a pretty long um consolidation period

before it was able to break out and people need to learn to kind of trust it. So that's kind of feels like where we're stuck right now. One question I've asked a few of our recent guests, Jesse, and maybe we've asked you in some of your recent appearances, but I want to hear it again now that you've kind of summarized, you know, the last two, three months of a price action for us, um, and all the factors is what do you what are you going to call this? If your thesis plays out, boom, we we were off to the races, 2026, tariff, liberation day, that was what happened earlier this year. What's what's the name for this current phase? >> I I don't know. I you know, I'd have to think of something cool, but I don't know.

>> It's your chance. It's your chance to coin it, man. You put out a video with a cool name for it and that's we're going to pick it up. >> Okay, I I'll think on that and try to throw out a video. >> Um, let's talk about some other factors that that may affect the economy and and one of the biggest ones at least that we track here at Milk Road and that a lot of people in our space do um is the Fed, right? And you've got uh so much going on right now in terms of narrative where we have the presser in two hours, the expected rate cut. Um although there were you know uh it was not a foregone conclusion last time that Jerome Powell spoke. So who knows what's going to happen. I'd love to get your um prediction there and also give us the

multiple outcomes how the market will react to this if at all at this point. >> So we're definitely we'll definitely get a rate cut today. Um I I think that's pretty much in the bag. Uh poly market has like 90% odds. So we're getting a rate cut today. Um, at the point the market is pricing it in that heavily, they kind of have to do a rate cut and they'd be stupid not to. Um, in as far as 25 versus 50 basis points, it's probably going to be 25. Usually poly market's pretty spot on on this. So 50 would be crazy and I don't even know how the market would take that. You know, sometimes that's risky. They could do a 50 basis point cut and the market could dump. Um, even though that's really bullish, um, it'll freak people out because they'll kind of assume the Fed

knows something we don't and that something horrible is coming. And so usually it's safe, that's why it's it's safest to just continually do these 25 basis point cuts um over a little bit longer period of time. So I I we'll get a 25 basis point cut today. Um that's in the bag. I what really is the question is kind of his verbiage and how people perceive that. I I don't know. I I don't know how the market will react. It's kind of complicated because you're playing this weird game where like everyone thinks it's going to be a hawkish cut. If it's a hawkish cut, does I don't know. It's kind of like this like reverse psychology, rock, paper, scissors kind of thinking, right? I don't I don't know that even matters.

It's more of a short-term thing. Yeah. Sometimes the market dumps after these things, sometimes it rallies after these things. Um the important part is every time they cut, that's like really good for liquidity. That's really good for the plumbing. Um that's really good for credit, the cost of credit we have. We were talking before we started the show that this new ESLR coming out. So the the ESLR rule change is comes into effect in January. It goes in effect in April, but like it's optional starting in January. And and basically that that's a really big change that also affects plumbing. That's really good. Uh which basically the SLR rule got put in place in 2008. It's part of those handcuffs that were put on the banks where they said, "Hey, you guys have to hold a certain amount if you're going to hold like treasuries and and risky

loans. You got to hold a certain amount of like just reserves uh to to offset that." And they kind of they kind of overdid it is kind of what we're figuring out because uh it made it so they don't want to hold treasuries because they're like well I can make a lot more money from these risky loans than I can these treasuries and that's going to take up space on my balance sheet. So why do I want to hold these um why do I want to hold these treasuries? Now the the government doesn't like that because they want people to sell their debt to they want to they say hey we have this debt countries aren't buying them as as much. um there's less demand for the debt. That's that's clogging up the plumbing. U but they got to offload it to somebody. And so they're basically

saying to the banks, they're saying, "Hey, um actually here we're going to we're going to change these rules. We're going to make it super awesome to hold our debt. We want you to hold our debt. We're going to make this super awesome. You can have our debt like not like this is safe. You don't have to have all these restrictions. You don't have to have like all these reserves when you're holding our debt." Um and that's great for banks cuz they're like, "Wow, we can put our cash to work in these things. we don't have to hold the same kind of reserve requirements. And it just means that banks are going to buy a lot more government debt. Um, and that means that means you should see like the the the 10-year, 30-year or well, I guess the important part is you should see mortgage rates and and stuff like that

come down. And that that helps spur the real economy. As mortgage rates come down, people buy houses, they move, they go buy stuff, they do home improvement. Um, it's it's kind of part of all the levers that they're trying to pull is what I call midterms mode for Trump. all the levers they're trying to pull to heat up the economy and get things going because that is the only way that Trump and Republicans win the midterms. If everyone is feeling poor and we go into the midterms, they will get decimated. If everyone feels happy and like things are going the right direction as we go into the midterms, then they're going to, you know, they're going to uh support the Republicans. So, I'm going to come back to crypto, guys.

Okay? I swear this is a crypto show and Jesse's giving us the fine lesson and what's going on in the macro, but I swear we will come back to talk about Bitcoin, ETH, and alts with this will happen on the show, but I I'm digging into Jesse's brain here. And while you're talking about um the Trump moves and that kind of favorability last week when you were on the show with Avashall um we had one commenter leave a very long comment and I want to read it back to you and I think I think it's agreeing with you and I think maybe you just spoke to it but I do I do want to give this uh very indepth comment a shout out. So this was Jesse your view that Trump only has one move and if he doesn't play this uh said this said move

Dems will sweep the midterms. that's grossly oversimplified and he is literally playing 5D chess on so many levels. In this case, with the economy, he and Bet and Lutnik are setting the US economy up for a stellar 2026 and it's already been moving quickly in that direction of private sector job creation, trillions of foreign uh corp uh corporation investments in our economy, onoring jobs, insane tariff revenue, which will ultimately help pay down the deficit, even the debt, massively historic crypto moves, uncorrupting the Fed, lol, and the ending the ending of wars. I could go on and on. The point is they are going to successfully grow us out of the mess uh that was left for him and the economy will be smoking in 3 to 6 months looking bright for Americans but also and and basically then goes on about Jerry mandering and stuff.

What Jesse is that is that about what you are painting that this is all all of this is kind of being done in a masterful way to lead up to midterms and that and then what and if so and then what happens >> and then what happens if it's a favorable midterm. Sorry, we're not getting I don't want to get too political either. I'm just we're just keep this strictly economical, but you spoke to a lot of these factors so I wanted to reflect this one back to you. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, this is a good one. Politics are hard because everyone's got really strong biases one direction or the other. And so if you're if you're politically favoring Trump, you are kind of biased towards viewing everything he does as like the right decision and it's like, you know, super smart. And if you're against him, you think he's an

idiot. And so I try to figure out like I mean markets don't reward you for either of those opinions. You kind of have to figure out the truth or or else you're going to get screwed. And so in my view in my view, a lot of what he's saying is true. I I actually do think and I don't know who maybe Bessant I don't know um but I do kind of think that they have been doing a pretty decent job at playing uh 40 chess or whatever you want to call it over 2025. Uh and this comes from listening to a lot of podcasts on the topic and trying to figure out where they were going to go. Basically they spelled out their plan early 2025 as we're going to give the medicine in 2025 so that we can um reap the benefits in 2026. They realistically understood that

they had one year um they didn't say this, but kind of reading between the lines. They had one year to blame everything on Biden and and give the medicine that's like politically not like people don't like it, so it's not politically viable in most circumstances, but it's kind of need to get done in 2025. Um and so that's tariffs, that's all this crazy stuff they've been doing, right? but so that they could in 2026 deliver uh you know the actual value and I think okay optimistic is it does seem like they've done a good job about that they've been positioning to like take over the Fed uh whether you like that or don't like that that is kind of a needed they need the Fed on board period like they they just

can't succeed without it and so they they're doing some re some crazy stuff maybe some of it a little bit shady uh to to get the Fed on board uh one of the things is I just saw they're trying Uh they might be doing something with the autopin. Trump's doing this whole thing with Biden and saying he was incompetent, like he wasn't his decisions didn't count because he wasn't making them. The autopin is like things signed on his behalf that he he didn't really do. And they're trying to say some of the Fed appointments aren't legitimate because of that. I I don't know if that'll work. Um I just saw that on a a a post, but they're kind of doing anything they can to get control of the Fed. uh they've been working really hard to do the tariff stuff up front and now

you're seeing them start to roll that back going into 2026 and everything they're doing everything they were doing is a in stark contrast to everything they are doing now which really does show me they have flipped into midterms mode they know their path to succeed and it's only if they make things really really good and um you know they're doing those things they're they're walking back on tariffs Trump said hey no more negative tariff announcements he has been pushing pulling some of those back they they do keep talking about how the economy is going to be booming in 2026 and they're probably right. We are getting rate cuts now. Um, we have Hass Hessen, I don't know how to pronounce his name. Uh, Kevin coming in as potentially the next Fed chair. He is he literally said outright said whatever Trump tells me to do, that's what that's

what I'm going to do or something like that. Um, which you know and and they have quite a few appointments as long as Pal steps down. Like they should be close to majority if not majority. I don't know. I I kind of think they're going to succeed on that front one way like one way or another. And um and that's not the only thing. ESLR all these other things are factors in that. They they have been really I don't know they they call it 40 chest or whatever. Um but they have been doing everything that that kind of does make sense to get the economy booming in 2026. And that is a part of my thesis is like if it originates with policy you got to dissect what's their motivation.

Motivation is they want to win the midterms. Not only that, but Trump wants to secure his legacy. Okay? like Trump is like really been pushing like that's why he ran again second time whatever like he his legacy is obviously very important to him. Um the man has named like I don't know a hundred different thing Trump stakes, Trump limousines, Trump Tower, Trump this, you know um all this kind of stuff. So like obviously he really does care. One way you could say that oh hey he's really into his own name. Um maybe maybe not. Or you could just say hey maybe he's really into his own legacy or you know something like that. um, however you want to dissect it, whether you're on the left or the right or whatever, that does seem like a legitimate thing. And so, obviously, he he I think he does really actually want

to do a good job. Um, and in the way that I think he wants to be known as the best president to have ever existed and I think he knows the only way he could do that is by actually doing something successful. Um, and so I think that's his plan. What you can argue all day if he's gonna succeed or not. Um, but I I think he's going to do everything he can to win the midterms and then from there on he doesn't have to worry about anything and then he can go bananas, you know, with with his further plans. But first he has to secure this victory and so I think he's going to be single-minded between now and then and I think he'll do anything he can. Um, and the good thing to note is that the the way he wins make people feel rich and is

that good for the markets? That is great for the markets. >> A quick little timeout from the pod here because we've got a huge problem. You're listening to the show, but most of you are not actually subscribed, which is crazy because we're here every single day dropping the stuff you actually want to know, the liquidity, the charts, the major players, and which way the market's going to go. So, hit subscribe, hit like, and let the algo know that you actually kind of like this. >> Mhm. Mhm. Okay, that's a good explanation. We're we're we're almost 30 minutes in and I think we said Ethan Bitcoin once, so this is a crypto show, so we have to come back to that. Jesse, your latest video, uh, you laid out the fuel to get us to 200k Bitcoin, and I feel like you've done a great job of

summarizing that here, right? And telling us all the macro factors that are going to affect that. I think a lot of people are still really concerned, and we talked about this often on the show, about the fact that, well, you had stocks, the stock market running into an all-time high, you had gold running to an all-time high, yet crypto did not seem to follow that. So given all these factors you've given me, is there still something that would hold crypto back? >> Crypto is typically kind of the first to sniff out liquidity weakness. Uh so I think that's part of the answer as to why crypto hasn't done well. The second one is the four-year cycle. So that's like a structural belief within crypto that's not outside of crypto. That's held crypto back. And the third one is the liquidation event. That liquidation

event in itself was a freak. I some people calling it manipulation or or whatever. Uh but there was something whatever you want to call it. I don't know that I believe that or don't but it it was a perfect storm, right? It was a perfect storm of like weird factors that came together that caused the biggest liquidation in crypto history. And uh that really put a damper on things. And behind the scenes, a lot of people have pointed to the fact that potentially there was like some some sort of forced seller uh that was kind of selling into that November bottom. Again, none of this has been verified. So, and I'm people just say crazy conspiracy things in crypto all the time and so it's kind of hard to to jump on that bandwagon.

But as far as that one goes, it does kind of feel like that price action was really strange and it did feel like every, you know, like every day you had this like it felt like this forced selling and I don't know, maybe it was the four-ear cycle, maybe not. But but whatever it was, it seemed to have gone away like it like you had that one the final day and then it was just gone. So um maybe that'll come to light in the future, but I would say those factors are probably why crypto has been performing uh different from everything else. And then right now it's more sentiment in in terms of like why it's not um instantly recovering. You need sentiment to recover. And so liquidity matters, yes, but also the direction of liquidity, which would be sentiment. Um you know, you could have liquidity going

bananas, but that doesn't mean your particular small business or particular investment is going to do good. Um unless the direction of liquidity goes your way. Um as in people direct that liquidity towards you because sentiment like they they favor it in that way. So yeah, I I would say it's that. >> Jesse, today Bitcoin dominance is down pretty significantly and you did tweet about uh ETH. Sorry if that's too small for you to see. It's just it's just kind of a decently red candle for for Bitcoin dominance today and it's been it's been down for six or seven days or it's been trending down. You did tweet the other day that uh you know this bounce that we've seen let's say to kind of start the week, right? uh has largely benefited ETH or that ETH seemed

to be strongest out the gate. And I think even right now as we're speaking that's also true. ETH is also printing a a second kind of nice green day while Bitcoin is kind of retracing a little bit. Why is this happening? Why why suddenly now is are we seeing ETH and maybe alts showing a bit more strength than Bitcoin? Well, I I don't know why it's happening, but but it is something I I pay attention to because typically historically, and maybe this breaks, I don't know, but historically when ETH does really well, everything else does really well. Um that includes Salana, that includes all the alts, etc. So, ETH is is one of these things to watch because it it sort of is like the, you know, the front runner of all season.

And so it was underperforming for years and then suddenly you know you've noticed in maybe the last couple months um as the market's gone down whatever but like you know July early August ETH started to really outperform and um we're seeing it again now it's performing and some people are saying it's just the DATs or you know and I don't know that that is or isn't the case but I will say like zooming out on the wider altcoin picture alts um alts have basically been in a bare market since 2022. Um, and they really haven't broken out. And so, um, yeah, I think on your chart there, can can you highlight 2022?

>> I've got the I've just got, for people that are listening, I've just got the total three chart up that excludes in that excludes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and and stable coins as well. So, we're just looking at the kind of total alt market cap basically. And let's look at here. Let's do a monthly chart so we can actually see something a little bit more succinct. So yeah, so right around so this is around here is about 2022. >> Okay. Yeah. So I mean structurally looking at it you can see what is that 2024 you see it start to peak higher. I don't know what that's coming from but I guess when I'm talking about the alts I'm talking about you know like the the long tail of of altcoins, right? Like

you're seeing a lot of these companies fold up. You're seeing a lot of them shut down. you're you're in general seeing just kind of a lot of negative sentiment around alts. Um and it sort of felt like it sort of felt like November 2024 um was kind of like the last breath uh of alts. So like you saw this huge rally um into December. Alts went bananas because Trump got elected and everyone thought, "Hey man, um you know, things are going to get really really good uh from here on out." But sort of people got ahead of their skis where they kind of expected everything in the moon right away but but didn't get it. And so then you saw just alts kind of collapse after that and just haven't done fantastic over 2025. Um you know we've had pockets of

them doing good here and there but you know as a whole haven't done fantastic over 2025. And so, um, my belief is that we're seeing a lot of structural changes with like the legislation coming through with with the market structure bill and all that kind of stuff. We're seeing a lot of institutional adoption. We're seeing altcoin ETFs. I think people got ahead of their skis, but I think they were heading the right direction as far as altcoins. And so, I think, you know, we've kind of had that cleanse. And again, there's a few market leaders like that are doing well like Salana, ETH, and, you know, all that kind of stuff.

But, but I'm talking about the longtail vaults. I think we start to see I think we're starting to um head around the corner as far as all that. So bare market for for the the longtail those assets november 2022 all the way till today. We've had little bumps up again excluding Salana and kind of those major assets. And um I I think we're going to start to see that turn around as legislation turns around and kind of opens the door for things like you know uh some of these tokens giving you ownership in in that protocol. um some some of these uh tokens maybe giving you like dividends and or fees back or you know whatever things that like a traditional um rights actual rights um and you're also seeing the SEC which is kind of opening the door to this with

their uh exemptions or sandbox environment or whatever they're calling it where you know crypto isn't going to be held to the same standards as like other stuff. Um, it's innovation box. I'm I'm not thinking the right term, but you know, whatever. All those things together, I think, are going to kind of lead to a resurgence in alts, I think, going into 2026 as well. Um, you know, couple that with liquidity and and all this. So, people got ahead of their skis, but they weren't wrong. Stable coins are the biggest use case in crypto right now. But let's be real, using them on chain is still way too complex. That's exactly the problem Bridge is solving. Recently acquired by Stripe.

Yep, that's Stripe. Bridge helps businesses send, store, accept, and launch stable coins instantly. Explore the future of global financial infrastructure at milkroad.com/bridge. >> When are we going to get the next Jesse Eckle my five alts for 2026 video? We need one, man. We need it. >> Uh I don't know. I I usually do those when uh you know like people are interested in that kind of content. But right now people are more people are more wanting to know you know what the market's doing than I don't think anyone wants to know anything about what tokens to buy.

>> Like I'm stuff right now, but I I most people don't want to see that kind of stuff. >> Oh. Oh, okay. Well, I won't ask I won't ask what you Nobody wants to know, right? Everyone's going to ask me after like, "Did he tell you secretly backstage what he was buying?" Uh, okay. One last thing I wanted to share. You did tweet this. This is what this is one of my favorite charts that comes up because everybody wants to tell you where we are on this psychology of a market cycle uh thing. And actually, I commented on this, too, uh, with a nice little gift there. But you wrote this back almost a month ago, man. November 14th. Uh, and this is that very classic Wall Street uh, cheat sheet thing that shows you, you know, the disbelief, the hope, the optimism, euphoria, complacency, denial as things go down.

You're telling us that uh, a lot of people are telling you we are at the complacency area that is right before we drop off an enormous cliff. Um, which seems quite unrealistic given everything that's going on, but some people are saying that, right? Um, and it's easy to say that when things are dropping. And you are telling me we are over here on the left at the disbelief that this rally will fail like the others and that we are just before a large meltup going into 2026. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I believe. So I I believe we're in the disbelief stage and that um the entire cycle so far has been that inst institutional structured bid between late 2022 and today. And so we kind of had that last dip uh where

everyone's like, "Hey, this is it's dead. You know, it's over." And you know, from here on out is when sentiment will turn around. Sentiment has never turned around this entire cycle. That's one thing to note is every time we have a bull like our big rally and stuff, people are still bearish. Like that's not normal. Like euphoria is it's skyrocketing and every dip people are like buy the dip. Um I remember from 2021, I remember from 2017 like that that's how it was. We've never had that. Like that's never been the case. Everyone turns instantly bearish every time we dip. And everyone thinks they're like already kind of thinks they they figured out the market. They they think, "Hey, it's four cycle. You got to buy here. You got to sell here." That's everyone's plan. So, everyone can't have the same plan. It never works. Um, and

can you go back to that chart? Going back to the chart for and I would say all coins. So, I would say all coins are almost in like their own little cycle of their own. I would actually say that probably that late where the late 2022 marker is maybe that r so right before that see that rally from anger up >> right >> that would be like where I'd say 2020 um and again the long your your chart that you showed how it was like going up um I don't know what you know that's measuring XRP and all this kind of stuff um the long tail of alts I would say they had that rally right there in late 2024 and that was kind of that part and then since then it's kind of down only for them. Um, you've seen a lot of them like bleeding to death. Um,

not not doing good. Um, at least that's how that's boots on the ground how it's felt to me. And I think a lot of other people in the market, they've said, "Hey, you know, also bleeding all 2025." And, um, again, outside of small pockets. And so, I think we're probably hitting a bottoming period for that. And then, you know, we kind of see that next run up from that late 2022 onward for alts going forward because obviously, you know, Bitcoin hasn't been in a a bare market in 2025. It's been more of a and we we've hit all-time highs. Uh but that hasn't been the case for like the long tale of alts. And and that makes sense. That actually makes total sense considering the SEC was just pulverizing alts from 2022 onward. I mean, they they were getting cease and desist. All the

developers were leaving. I mean, it was just like suicide to to to build like any sort of project with a token. And so we had all these VC launches and all this just it's been horrible. It's been the the alt environment and innovation has been just I mean there's been innovation, but you know what I'm talking about like token launches and all this weird stuff has been horrible uh for the past couple years. Uh but we're finally turning a corner on that. Um and that's why I believe hey this is the bottoming period and you know what's next I think is going to catch everyone offguard. >> I love this comment. This will be the first hundred-year cycle. Obviously sarcastic, but you see that. Oh, right on. Well, Jesse, dude, I love the optimism. Um, you know, we have you on the show pretty often and and we'll keep

checking in on these these uh these estimations, I guess, these predictions, and and I'm with you. I hope they they become true. Um, and you know, I think we're going to see you again very soon, maybe to talk more concrete 2026 predictions. And as usual, man, it's it's been great to have you on the show. Yeah, it's been great coming coming on the show. Thanks for having me. >> Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.