Hivemind: Trump's Clean Sweep, the Bitcoin Reserve, and Finding the Fastest Horse

Transcript

I think the the biggest other um source of bullishness which is is insane and and like hard to price in because of how significant it would be is the Bitcoin Reserve right if if that's even a slight probability then like everyone else kind of needs to front run it and so it's it's hard to see a world where we're not just kind of going up for a while now we can finally see if this industry can come up with anything besides number go up technology and number stay flat technology like Bitcoin and stable coin seem to be the two things that have product Mark Market fit and that we've made uh I think a lot of us in the industry have used the regulatory

environment as our main reasoning for why there haven't been more mainstream consumer apps and so this is kind of now these next four years are kind of the the place to prove it and see if that's true or if it'll always just be a giant Casino nothing set on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell Securities or tokens this podcast is strictly for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions not Financial [Music] advice hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the hive mind podcast

today with us we have our usual crew cedus dun Yan and and myself Jose so we're recording here on November the 7th um we're so back Trump has has won the election with with a clean sweep uh I'm going to hand it over to our resident American on the podcast Yan um to to cover what that means and then we're going to have a fun podcast just discussing what all this means for crypto who the biggest winners and losers are what crypto policies were potentially most excited for ETC but uh Yan why don't you take it away yeah no uh great day for crypto I think this outcome if you were following things was pretty obvious um

it it I think markets had him at a at a decent favorite um and and you know if you kind of just think about the the shift of the voter base and and um you know where people were four years ago it was pretty clear that that he was in a good position to win pending you know Shenanigans and a bunch of other stuff but so the end result is that we have a a trump Victory and then in addition you have uh you know sweeps across the the house and the Senate so previously the Senate was um blue and the house was red and and basically in scenarios where it's split it becomes a bit more difficult to pass

legislation um and so you know thinking about what the benefits of the the The Sweep are you have so with a a a senate that's aligned with the president it's much easier to pass legislation it's much easier to make appointments um you know whether it's judges uh people to your cabinet kind of a lot of the the uh elements that are really needed to allow for the president to kind of implement the policies he wants to do and so it's not often that you have um this kind of alignment I think the last time well last time you had a super majority which is what we have here is Obama and you passed Obamacare and so the super majorities basically you have 60 Senate

out of the 100 instead of at least 50 which then you get to pass much more kind of um larger scale kind of legislation which Obamacare was but here you know you have an environment where um there there should be the ability to to to create a lot more friendly regulation for towards crypto and then I think in particular we saw quite a few crypto-friendly um people coming into office across both the house and the Senate which is really bullish I think the specific number was um so yeah stand with crypto has a thing so yeah 260 out of the House of Representatives like 263 Pro 116 against

and then in the Senate this is not total this is just newly elected right so you had 263 Pro 116 anti and then in the Senate you had 18 Pro 12 anti and then the Senate went from being kind of 49 51 uh 51 blue 49 red it's currently 52 but it might be as high as 54 55 depending on kind of how some of these last elections shake out and so yeah it it really kind of creates the environment for um a lot of optimism around the space I think you know you had the the previous big moment which was um it became and no longer a kind of career risk to

invest in the space um where it became consensus and now you have you know you still have that Tailwind of course and then now you have the regulatory side where uh I ideally we see an influx on on the Builder front um and so you know thinking about what happens next um you know Trump's talked about trying to looking to fire Gensler on day one it's unfortunately not as straight forward as that where they he technically doesn't have the ability to fire him like the gar has a term and have heard you know uh rumors that he's you know realizes that his future path in politics isn't really there anymore right under this uh

current Administration and so he's kind of going scorched Earth potentially and and and trying to you know burn things down but I think it's going to have much less teeth now with kind of how much of a reversal we're going to see um uh in you know in terms of the approach from the government towards like a reversal in the hostility so that like the way you can get rid of him so typically the the the the one the incumbent leaves um with every new administration because it's just like time for them to appoint someone that they want and and so that that's kind of historically happened here but but like that was uh based on the you know the the Chairman's doing not a function of the government removing him so you know it is kind of up to them there are

legislative paths that can be taken to kind of get rid of him and so I think with all of the branches of government aligned those should be easier and ideally he kind of just um doesn't make this a drawn out process for his sake but yeah it seems like there this is the the ultimate kind of catalyst from you know a market that was previously super hostile towards crypto and and you know aside from the Gensler element I think the the biggest other um source of bullishness which is is insane and and like hard to price in because of how significant it would be is the Bitcoin Reserve right if if if something like that happens then like that I think the numbers Flo around was like a million BTC over a couple of years and if you do

the math on what that needs to be on like a daily basis it's basically just like an infinite Bid And so um the the game theory in terms of you know if that's even a slight probability then like everyone else kind of needs to front run it and so it's it's hard to see a world where we're not just kind of going up for a while um obviously there's going to be chop as people get ahead of their skis periodically but um yeah it seems Seems like we're we're as back as we could be I think we're going from sideways chop to uh upwards chop and yeah it's basically like fastest horse season where you get angry if you're not on the fastest horse um yeah it's hard to see like any down like I'm

talking like for crypto from the so come the only thing maybe is like uh I've been reading a bunch that like uh interest rate cut expectations now with Trump are like kind of cooled off a bit so you can maybe see that as like the one negative but like all the other factors are just like way overpowered that I don't even think you have to worry about like you have to really think about that at this point um personally like obviously BTC did well I kind of expect TW this yesterday like I think yesterday kind of made sense for like an e BTC bottom um I think that you will probably now see a lot of capital come in to non

BTC stuff because the regulatory um hostility or ceiling whatever you want to call it seems like it's going to be lifted in a pretty big way now um and so I mean we we haven't really seen it yet we still had like no e ETF flows yesterday and like the day before um but I think that this kind of makes sense like right now it's all crypto Capital that's kind of been moving eth over the last day or two um but I do think this could kind of be yeah the Catalyst to start start to see like those EFS start to get flows now and then that kind of

trickles down to like everything non BTC right it trickles down to like you know defi stuff trickles down to other l1s um it's just yeah um so maybe like BTC dominance Tops on like around Trump presidency uh like the win I don't know if people feel about that I depends on the reserve probably right like it's it's hard to see if it yeah if yeah but even still that's not coming for a few months but like what would the Reserve I told like the reserve so

ludicrous yeah like that would be actually absurd so the like you said there's polymark and all that like what is the like does anyone actually know what if that's even a real possibility yeah the reserve would be cool um okay theit the least presidency on no volume yeah there's like no liquidity it's 27% but there's no liquidity so you can't use that number for anything that seems high that seems way too high yeah but I mean I don't know let's talk about I mean the reserve whatever there's not much to say about the reserve well the reserve would be insane yeah but I mean

there's not like sure I think firing Gary gendler and putting in like Hester Pierce would be like insane I don't think she wants it though you know is that is that right yeah yeah I've heard the uh what's that other guy UDA yeah and then the other one floating around was uh Robin Hood's Chief legal officer that was floating around for like a few months now which would also be like a good win I think um thing I'll say with this is like now we can finally see if this industry can come up with anything besides number go

up technology and number stay flat technology like Bitcoin and stable coin seem to be the two things that have product Market Market fit and that we've made uh I think a lot of us in the industry have used the regulatory environment as our main reasoning for why there haven't been more mainstream consumer apps and so this is is kind of now these next four years are kind of the the place to prove it and see if that's true or if it'll always just be a giant casino right um so I think while everybody is happy now and excited and yeah bullish on prices um I do really hope we start to see some cool stuff come out of this I

think you kind of get in in in waves right so initially the the repricing happens I think on defi but I I'm not super optimistic that that rally has a lot of legs because like it's what is it solving for it's it's removing downside risk right but but upside um price Discovery is is still going to be a function of fundamentals and and so I think on a lot of uh these protocols it's hard to to rationalize a lot more upside um so I guess like they do reprice because you know part of that the current price factored in regulatory action and and some you know uh big uh kind of negative surprise um but I think the the like you mentioned you know the

more optimistic and uh longer term Tailwinds are Builders coming into place and and actually being comfortable doing that but yeah like not being afraid of getting arrested well like you I think you know there's there's there's the current framework um and so without Gensler there's less concerns around um regulation by enforcement and kind of unknown punitive actions but there still really isn't a framework for building right so you kind of almost need that Domino to fall before people get too comfortable but at the same time you could you could really build and not launch a token and then you know once there's Clarity on the token side you can do that so it shouldn't be caused

too much of a delay it's more delay on the token side I'd say but ideally there's a lot of right now it's just speculation right you would you would need like some of the anti-money laundering rags to change like definitely the security stuff like having a framework for for how to launch a token how to do distributions how to raise money with a token all this stuff would be really helpful I do think there's some D5 projects that really benefit from this especially if there's like good stable coin regulations which is something that's been just been talked about a lot um where you know they can be used as as legal tender um you know it clarifies like the tax treatment and and all this kind of thing j for Athena legal tender yes USD legal tender well you've already seen Athena

turn on the fee switch right or like uh a proposal from winterm to turn on the fee switch yesterday and I think you're going to see a lot more of that soon and that's one of the most cash flow generating D5 projects plus a stable coin I think it really benefits from from this regulatory regime and from the just Animal Spirits in general returning to the market and funding funding going up um any any others that you guys think actually really do benefit from this and I guess within like defi for now I me they they all kind of repriced right immediately higher like uni a all them like the ones that got notices and stuff yeah it definitely allows a path for like these tokens not to just be forever

useless anymore which was kind of what it felt like before um but then as Yan said right it's like doesn't necessarily mean that all of a sudden their fundamentals are going to like like improve out of nowhere but like we know all this stuff is super reflexive so you know if e does bottom and starts going up again then like it's going to bring the fundamentals of of all these things up with it um yeah so I definitely think Divi I think what's probably the most interesting one would be like you know rwa I think could get really interesting like if they say like okay we want to have like Apple stock on chain or something and like you could bring on on

like an insane amount of capital like tokenizing you know a lot of existing like you know Venture funds or private Equity Funds uh putting stocks on chain then like you know putting those into like an Al type thing we can get liquidity on them like that's where I think things and obviously that's you know years out with regulation but you know with uh with like the balance of power how it is I don't think that's like a non-zero chance by in the next four years and that's when things can get really crazy because you're bringing like so much capital and so much liquidity on chain and unlocking so much of it and allowing borrowing on it that should just like really bring everything

up with it and I think that like the only real chance that happened if if you had like a kind of Republican sweep or like very Pro crypto sweep so I feel like longterm that could be really cool um and then obvious like positive Define in the short term and then like you know memes still probably do well I feel like I mean the AI stuff though too like yeah the a it seems like he's also AI has also been facing a lot of potential like reg regulatory headwinds um from the big like close sourced web two companies and it seems like open not open AI like open AI like open sourced AI uh um and like

decentralized AI might actually be a pretty big winner from this too and there's speculation that he'll ban that he'll repeal the executive order the Biden executive order immediately and on open source AI yeah like JD Vance has spoken out for it and obviously what was the executive order just for context the just like overregulation on on AI companies basically okay um yeah and there's I mean it it it started off and then it got expanded to to more things but um yeah it was it was pretty universally sort of I mean actually Elon ended up endorsing it by by the end of it he was initially pretty against it but uh yeah

the speculation that Trump will repeal that straight away and go into more of like a deregulated um AI he also wants to like really encourage uh sort of GPU farms and and energy and stuff to be produced in the US he's he's really big on that obviously which should be pretty bullish he also said right they wanted Bitcoin to be produced in the US yeah that's one of the like the non-speculative uh policies he'll not like is in a policy that we're pretty confident he'll Implement right as some kind of friendly whether it's tax structures or or whatever it is to get more mining done here and I think just overall you know part of his um campaign has been kind of

increasing energy production in the US uh which is incredibly necessary yeah what do we think on like memes versus I guess like VC coins or fundamentals coins here like seems like if there's proper regulation uh memes like part of the reason for memes should should disappear or like some people mentioned memes was because you couldn't you couldn't in a regulatorily compliant way do proper coins with with cash flows and stuff like this do we think that's the case yeah I mean that that's one of the sources of fud the other is just you know the the fact that you have unlocks on you and then you know valuing VC tokens on a fundamental basis on top of the fact that there are people unlocking

on you makes it harder to bid I think you know the positioning on some of these is probably negative enough that they'll have a pump where people need to unwind I think that's that's also like part of the eth narrative is that it's it's used as a as a kind of a pair trade for a lot of stuff and so there's kind of unwinds that need to happen there um so I think right just a positioning trade or uh I mean I I I you already long e or you just add not really I I I I had like very little spot e um I just bought a bunch of perss yesterday basically um it it if there if this isn't the time for it to move a little bit then it's going to be hard to see when it will yeah on

Meme coins first I actually I don't know if uh I think they're going to get crazier to be completely honest um like them and I think the unlock thing is more important like we talk about turning on these fee switches and stuff and sure there'll be maybe a couple tokens where the fee switch is enticing but people are going to get bored of that pretty quickly when they're staking their defi token and getting a 0.5% yield um they're going to get like pretty bored of that pretty quickly I definitely think you need to like differentiate on the high like low float High FV tokens like you said Jose it's like there's some that are like literally Vapor have no business and launch ridiculous valuations you know maybe those have pumps but like I think well like does the fundraising method

change too now right which kind of helps solve a lot of that low cir High FV stuff right will we be able to do um I get get a bigger icos get a bigger portion of like circul so everyone's unlocked or like why does the fundraising how do no I'm just fundraising method solving the low flow High acdv means you're just unlocking everyone right away I no I think you can get like a bigger you can do like a raise to public like right before you launch maybe at like a lower but so everyone's unlocked though is is the is the thing well no or you just launch lower no I think on the public raise everyone can be unlocked I mean I think there's many parts to it first one is you tap into more Capital

uh should lead to like um there hasn't really been a shortage of that though uh I mean there's going to be more Capital if you have if if you can involve retail and stuff as well into the into earlier stage I just think it mainly disrupts that last round the projects do right before they go public where it's like the mega funds that take it at like you know a place where they think it can two or 3x potentially and then you just do that as an Ico instead you'll be able to get a better valuation you can like unlock everyone in the in the Ico get some float out there that way because I I just think it's way easier to get float out with an Ico is kind of the main thing like because you're not giving people tokens with a zero cost basis you're actually making

them them them pay for them and it's just a way better way to get FL yeah but I but like we're talking about icos in the last round like the first rounds are are are are they are as they are in in the situation if we're just talking about like so I mean those either are locked up or they're not and they're they're low low cost I mean it's like there isn't really that much of a difference of of if you're like doing the IC so if you're doing around at whatever 400 million and you do it private versus an Ico round in the end if you're doing it private and locked or or private and unlocked or Ico and unlocked it's it's kind of the same thing I'd say if anything Ico peeps probably have more paper hands than than some of these funds I think it's more of

a change into like okay there's definitely a few different things you're talking about but I think it's more of a change in like what you actually launch it at you know you do that round at 400 million with Ico people and then you launch at like you know a billion or something versus launching at 10 billion icos just means there's because you can sell unlocked tokens so you have proper public market price Discovery in the Ico especially if you have something like an auction and you're selling a meaningful portion of Supply like 10 plus percent then you don't have this issue of price Discovery needs to wait like two years until there's enough float unlocked that you can actually price this thing like you actually have price but if you unlocked all the private investors on the launch of the token right isn't that effectively accomplishing the same thing

you get more Supply unlocked price Discovery it's just like Public's dumping versus investors dumping but in the end it's still same price Discovery same Supply unlocked yeah but I feel like that's like frowned upon like the current matter now AG I'm just saying like in terms of what you're trying to accomplish I mean you then you can effectively do that just I still think private market price Discovery is different from public market price Discovery to be honest okay I think though I think that the big takeaway from the fundraising and what really matters is that more money is going to start going to Applications right because infra has kind of been seen I think everyone is sick of infra funding now we have like a ton of infra um and infra was always seen as not only from a builder perspective as

like a low-risk way to make a lot of money also from a VC perspective right if you're just building like generalized infra you're probably not going to get caught up in you know like more of these money laundering or other other laws and so it was seen from both a builder and investor perspective is like the safe thing to do and now with the poor performance of the infr tokens with the regulatory environment changing I've even seen on Twitter even before the election there was all there were it's it seemed like there was kind of a Vibe shift of more funding towards apps and so I think that will be kind of the main driving force now going forward and applications also just naturally launch

at much lower valuations too um than infra and so I think that could be the main uh takeaway moving forward uh which I also think yeah I agree and I think there's a lot of benefits to the Ico thing I think another one that that it can have um is that if one of these primary platforms and we're obviously uh like investors in incubated Legion which is one of the main ones here but there's also Echo um if any of these get significant traction they could replace like the centralized exchange or at least like supplement centralized exchanges in terms of getting users because like a lot of the centralized exchange listing thing

is just the way that you go to market in crypto for for better for worse and I think if these primary platforms start doing well that's where early stage retail will go for Alpha rather than going on binance and buying the the high float low fdv and then you can you can replace a lot because I think a lot of the stuff that happens with lowf flat High fdv and the infra bias and stuff is uh actually like centralized exchanges are driving it because of because they historically have had a preference for infra um they like encourage these Discord games to get loads of users and stuff like this the high float low fdv sort of benefits them like notional volumes are higher and there's like all sorts of ways in which they're the primary beneficiaries of this and so I don't know I think there's a lot of ways

that if icos come back sort of a lot of things get better I think exchanges definitely aren't the primary beneficiaries of it it's definitely the teams and the investors like the exchanges are just don't get to sell they're just they're they're just locked I know but even if it goes down 90% or like you know people who what's the initial float usually like from an air drop or from like five to seven yeah like from air drop or or usually is what it comes from so like I feel like you know even some teams maliciously air Dr market makers and yeah market makers like Farm their own air drops have those agreements even it goes down I think you need to differentiate between like you

know projects that like literally have no path to being worth this and then you know projects that still did the high fdv low float thing but have a product like something like Athena like it's still launched at like a high fdv low float but it does have like a good product I I think the the buckets in the products in the first bucket where like they are never have a chance of making this money and are down only are probably still gonna have some pumps but are done and then you know something like Athena actually has a project who who did this has way more of a chance because they actually have a real product in the regulatory environment has has shifted in terms of like yeah Capital raising in the future I definitely think things like Legion Echo I think hyper liquid's probably going to do stuff like that as

well but I think it's it's kind of on the teams more so than the exchanges like I don't think binance likes it that's why they're taking I think cedus you linked a tweet from thinking USD in uh the chat but why they're asking for so much of the supply Finance is a huge beneficiary of this like in there's there's so many ways in which they benefit from this like one of the big ones is just the launch pool like yeah yeah they're asking for they're asking for 10% of the supply because they know that these things are going down they're the ones getting the getting the supply at the high fdv and selling to people like they're fully unlocked like the B&B stakers who are getting like if if you look at B&B yield over the last two years I saw a tweet on

this like 60 50 to 60% just because you're getting like the enas the the everything who like everything which launched on the launch pool that's why it's always trading with negative funding too it's because everyone's just like delta neutral BNB and just collecting that yield yeah and so like they they bet like they're their stakers benefit loads right like C CZ they're the ones getting they're the ones dumping these tokens at the top um they benefit from like notional higher trading volumes they become the only place that you can do like price Discovery and just launch a token like I think there's loads of and the teams and investors like investors are just locked until the cliff which is the most telegraphed event of all time um like investors really don't benefit from from this at all other than if you think

there's some anchoring to the launch price and then uh like psychological anchoring to the lch price there's also two separate users though like I think you know we're talking about the uh like what Legion would unlock doesn't completely cannibalize what binance does because it's still the primary venue to get massive volume right like you can still it's still the place you want to be to get a bunch of liquidity I think this can compete in terms of you know getting some retail in but it's not necessarily going to replace binance's uh bread and butter which is you know having a bunch of users and having a bunch of liquidity yeah I just have a question for for Jose on this like who actually

decides is like wouldn't it be the exchange the team and the market maker come together and decide what they want the launch price to be or who is actually deciding I don't think the launch price matters much it for for the low float High fdv coins it definitely there's just one tick like one tick at the lach price yeah okay F the price that it's in for the first 48 Hours like just the market it's not just who's buying it at 20 billion just idiots no well it's a couple things it it also depends on kind of the strike prices that the market makers contracts have set up right they typically end up trying to defend those B better answer than just so like it is just like animal

spirits to some degree though there's only so much volume and liquidity the market V can can control yeah I just think that like it's definitely like there's definitely some like the teams the market makers and the exchange all have to take some responsibility versus being like oh this is just the market this is the market price but you you like the only way to get more float out there would just be to do big bigger air drops and like you don't want to give away 10% of your supply or doing yeah or the fundraising thing you do the massive Ico or like you sell it it's just really hard to do that right now you yeah so that's how like changing things in the future could could be good agreed these projects in

the end though it's I think you know if you think about it if you think about what the project is giving up in terms of the amount of tokens in a silo it sounds like a lot but but you know you kind of have to think about it as like what are the Alternatives right trying to do Dex only liquidity you're never going to get near is liquid and it's going to end up costing you a lot of tokens and incentives right uh so I think it's it's more they're doing it from position of power but uh as in the centralized exchanges are but the alternative isn't great and so in the end it's still kind of the best path to getting your token as out there as possible because like price is a form of marketing right and so you can even try and like cope your way into justifying

it as as like good marketing spend too yeah and I definitely think that just like having more tokens on launch so like you could just run you know more seasons more points like have more transparency around that and get to a point where it's actually a healthy amount of tokens trading because like how many times do you have to see the same chart pattern of these things just launching and getting completely wrecked and then I think it's you know anyone who bought on the launch who was like initially a supporter excited to buy excited with the project just gets inst and it's just really not the optimal way to move forward because it's just really retail and like the people genuinely excited about the project who end up getting screwed yeah to play

devil Devil's Advocate I guess if you're thinking about you know project launch and then where the project is in two years do you think the project will be better off if it releases a bunch of the tokens early so the chart doesn't like rip higher and then kind of melt down or do you think the project is better off if it you know distributes some and then leaves a bunch for ammo to grow the business business grow you know like use as incentives like I still think that in the end two years later the project is fundamentally in a stronger Place doing something more low float and then using the token as an incentive mechanism R yeah and that's how you have to like um break it down depending on which project right because we're kind of bucketing

them all and I think like there's ones that are clearly like these things are never going to be worth remotely close on any fundamental basis to what they launch at and then there's one you know that's a launch super expensive but they have a really interesting product and like in a couple years maybe they could get there if crypto like grows a lot and they grow a lot so it's kind of hard to to say but in general I think we're getting sidetracked on this uh project launch discussion um to to bring it back do we want to talk about poly Market that's something that uh it's an interesting one what do you think like it's clearly a big winner from this election cycle I think they they did like 600 million on on ction day or volume something like that I

think I think it was just a big win for like crypto too because if I mean first of all the fact that PO the well the fact that like poly Market was 6040 for a while even if Harris turned out to be right it's not that like poly Market was necessarily like technically wrong right cuz it's like you know six out of 10 four out of 10 times you would expect it to be Harris anyways um so I think there's a lot of confusion just overall with like polls versus prediction Market the whole time but I mean my I mean like my dad was talking to me about polymar he's never talks to me about really any of this stuff except for he like watches some prices um I had

other friends like talking about poly Market when the election was on that's what I was looking at the whole time in real time right I was looking at Poly Marketing in ki and seeing like when they start Ed spiking um and I was watching CNN the whole time too and it was just funny how different it was um how like on CNN they made it seem like it was a close race the whole time when it was like not um and then poly marker kind of sniffed that out I thought the the story of what the this French Trader did was kind of cool he he commissioned like private um neighbor method type polls which I've

actually I saw Robin Hansen who's like the futarchy um inventor respond to this and say how like this is a method that's been around for a long time so he's kind of surprising that it worked so maybe he was lucky that this like just kind of like worked for him um but I mean that's like that's why prediction but that's why prediction markets are that's why they're they're cool right because this is it's surfac saying you know more information Alpha it's surfacing more information and people will call it like manipulation or whatever they thought it was but this was literally a guy running private polling and you know having the conviction to put what seemed like was the majority of his net worth down onto

this um so it's it's such a wild story but I think it's amazing for crypto because there's like I saw tun tweet this too how like poly Market could have the money maker effect and the money maker effect was this guy who this normal dude he was an accountant like 27 years old and he won like big poker stars tournament and then everybody got into like poker after that right because everybody saw you could kind of make it like this and like I don't know if this is going to get people coming into prediction markets or it's just going to get them like coming into crypto and stuff but like yeah and seeing Shane on you know CNBC today talking with all those guys um it's definitely like it's

great to see a crypto app win the mainstream you know yeah for something as important as like the election well it's super important because like it's it's also the most objective way to to get probabilities on it right like if you're hearing from CNN and networks they're they they have their own biases that they're embedding on these outcomes and then the public polls aren't really accurate because the business is just to get the poll out rather than be accurate there's like a handful that do well but this is like Tru the one you know Global synthesized opinion on how this outcome plays out I think the other conflation is like polls aren't showing probabilities right polls are just showing that they think

52% of the voters are going to vote but like poll and probabilities doesn't map one to one like if the polls were 6040 you know the poly Market would be like 8515 or something like that so yeah yeah it's so it'll be interesting to see if because historic Al I feel like you know this is poly Market's big thing and then the volumes just disappear and even like I'm scrolling through there now like there's not a ton of relative to Super Bowl the Super Bowl I think is pretty big yeah no no that's like the I think the the next one that I've seen that's the highest but like the rest are pretty pretty liquid so it'd be really cool if they build out more and what I

think you know now that there's more favorable regulation if they do a token and like could help you know boot stops and markets that way like help uh liquidity providers maybe they could grow this into a bigger thing so that could be a bull case but it is really cool like cause what that guy Freddy had the chance he bet 40 million on Trump had the chance to make 20 million because he had that opportunity then he went and conducted all these private poles and poly Market that just doesn't exist so you could think of applying that to like any question that is posed there with you know with deepen up liquidity so like I don't know something

kind of cool could be like I just and not just that right it'll surface like the Insiders um like the the people who have privileged information yeah services like actual signal the structural headwind they still have though is that liquidity is really difficult to get because it's not yeah there aren't other offsetting markets that you can provide you can you know you can't provide liquidity here and then as a market maker hedge yourself in another Market because this is the market so you know Market making on on crypto pairs is easy because you can you know balance yourself out and and so you can transfer liquidity from one venue to another effectively whereas here it's kind of impossible because there's no other

place to hedge so Market making becomes very expensive K hear me out they do they do a v Curve Model where you have like gauges and then people who want to figure out answers to certain questions put up a poly market and then direct emissions there to create liquidity on the market I like it I mean you can definitely charge a bunch in fees right because it's it's you don't get to do this elsewhere so so like you know it's it's not this fee race to the bottom you could become you can get like somewhat extractive the main thing is there's been no there's been no markets that have been interesting on on any Market other than elections like they

historically always their volume Peaks right before elections and then Trails off and this is going back to like 2000 um or yeah I think that was the the first one because that's just like the most like that has a critical mass for enough liquidity to actually be interesting and people care about it but like if you were to build it out more there's people who care about like certain niches and segments of markets a lot you need both sides to care let you need like a market that you know two sides really passionately care about like you know yeah and that exists but they're just smaller right like on the election it's like the entire world's watching the US election like you couldn't have something that people care about more there's also alternatives for sports betting there there's you know

Sports books which are going to be more liquid more efficient on pricing usually um and then like you know I guess on on like interest rate bets there's you know fed funds Futures that people can speculate on which you can do in size so it's also thinking about like you know what competition they have as they expand their um like the the the the surface area of their bets yeah like the ones that I think are kind of interesting right now that I'm looking through is like does Trump and the Ukraine war in the first 90 days 50% chance 49% chance like stuff like that is kind of interesting like if that got

a lot more liquid that would be a very interesting market and if there is signal in there somehow yeah now there's money on I mean yeah it's kind of like on ending or continuing a war um can you imagine if like there was millions of like hundreds of millions of dollars on if this war will continue um yeah but it's like you're you're talking on like the order of billions and magnitude that's like like you know hundreds of billions that is like influencing it rather than you know this is still pretty small obviously it's like kind of crazy to be betting on that but as like the kind of Truth machine that that you're talking about that stuff is is interesting to to know

like kind of because there's like a big thing in um in Japan like during World War II they had like pretty tight propaganda about like are they winning the war are they losing the war and like the first people to figure out were like the financial markets right like that they actually were losing the war and and um and like kind of like hire up Elites and and find it like started selling their their kind of more speculative assets and investing in in real assets like stuff like that especially like it's a little different today with with um how communication happens but a market is kind of like seeing through the truth of what may be like blasted on the news right yeah

along that same vein you do have like indirect assassination markets like there's one where it's like Will trump be inaugurated in in uh in January and it's like 96% yes but that that what is that Delta that's basically assassination or he he's old he's 80 but yeah it's him not being around or something crazy happening interesting that's a good point all right Mo moving on is there anything uh I I wanted to move on to just Venture generally like how do we think that changes with with a trump presidency because as is there anything else on the crypto front we wanted to touch on maybe because I agree with you that Bitcoin dominance is is probably peaked here unless you have the

Strategic reserve and then um I think Ethan so both benefit so probably more because the ETF is still ahead um and just it has pmf I I think what we could see which would be way more bullish than like more Venture money is more liquid funds right because now you're going to have liquid tokens being a lot more interesting um from like a fundamental basis and so this could be the golden the Golden uh the golden run for liquid for liquid crypto def maybe I mean Arthur's been beating the Arthur's been beating the liquid and he hasn't really been wrong there's been a lot of there's been like a bunch of good liquid tokens this year

uh you can kind of get lost in looking at Bitcoin Dom because it's basically all against eth um like market cap wise so there have been like good liquid funds some pretty but yeah I could see this just like you know Bitcoin dominance dropping is good for like liquid funds because that's like kind of their whole game is to outperform bitcoin and like to outperform eth really too yeah I think liquid we need more liquid money than Venture money because like you're just funding all this stuff that doesn't like I think liquid rewards stuff that actually has like traction and users and like or attention I guess like on the meme

side but talking about these liquid funds in particular they usually like buying stuff that has a strong fundamental case so I think you probably want more of that that'll help create a more efficient market on on the fundamental case side of things uh versus you know Ventures still funding a lot of speculative things uh and know a lot of new things that need to be built out so definitely and it's not like that's not important it's just like we've had such an overwhelming like amount of money in Venture relative to liquid for for the size of the market that I think move towards liquid is is healthier for sure we we should talk a little bit about memes because I feel like that'll be

debated now that you know regulations opening up yeah we kind of did at the beginning of this I think it's uh yeah I think it's like mid IQ to say that memes are like dead now yeah I I still think it's like I guess I think why memes were kind of born out of the cycle are definitely a function of the regulation and then like the low float High fdv stuff um but now that they're kind of here I don't know if just because that improves they're they're going away because people really love trading them and like the volatility on them and kind of like maybe the bigger societal trends of like people feeling

financially um you know needing a big win essentially and uh wanting to chase stuff with higher volatility definitely all still exist and I think like the cat's kind of out of the bag and I don't really see them slowing down as long as there's memes that are still like you know pulling 10 X's or 100 X's then I don't really see them slowing down either I mean I also think you're probably just going to get more applications now built around memes like like infrastructure for memes and stuff right um like I know there there's pump and there's moonshot and there's some other things but like you're going to see way more in that so yeah I honestly it's kind of just like as I said at the

beginning of this it feels like it's now fastest horse season and so you know it's the Golden Bull and it's it's kind of like you want to be on the on the fastest horse and if if your thing goes up less than another thing you get angry but uh yeah I don't see like I just don't see you know defi just like sucking all this meme coin did maybe there's something new though that comes out that'll be cool yeah what are some bare cases for the market right now because obviously I think everyone on Twitter I think inflation re accelerating and like interest rates um just like General stocks not doing poorly or

something uh yeah I mean there there's a chance that I mean Trump has some pretty inflationary policy right yeah so just general macro risk yeah I it was pretty depressing there for a bit where it was like just the regulation side looks so Bleak so that's lifted which you know obviously we've seen I mean it's also possible that that Trump doesn't deliver on any of his promises like politician politicians have done this before like this is kind of like politician drug yeah I mean the thing is he's if he's bringing all these people on board then it's going to be much harder like what what what just leave it a status quo yeah the other

thing too is like think about this K the like if the Republicans come through on all their promises there will be no reason if you're obviously if you're in crypto you you're going to vote for other things than whatever and I'm not an American okay but if you're like a single issue voter and you voted for Trump because of crypto this cycle and they follow through on all their promises then what's going to convince you to go back and take the risk of going back to the other side right and so there is like a benefit for them for in the long term of like continuing to follow through on all this because they can kind of like permanently you know getto on his priority list you know because

everything to us but I imagine there's a lot of other but no but he can be Pro crypto without doing anything besides stopping to do things right yeah it was kind of like the Elizabeth Warren thing where it's like I'm putting together an anti- crypto Army it's like why like who actually who actually wants this other than like like obviously FTX a lot of people got screwed over and you know if there was more regulation on that that could have helped that wasn't crypto though that was just fraud yeah I know yeah so but it's like it's kind of like what is the upside for him like yeah maybe he gets in there and doesn't do the reserve which I think is the reserve is kind of absurd

um and doesn't do like some insanely Pro things but I think it's definitely in their interest stable coins for like you know demand for the debt and just not alienating this user base having more donors I mean definitely stable coins to play Devil's Advocate on the token stuff though there's like a lot of law like regulations around how to do a public company right and many crypto projects are arguably just fluing those going public with much less transparency um like much less disclosures much less oversight um and that's definitely led to some some bad results it's like do you sure what crypto shows is there's like so much demand for this right like

there's there's so much demand for aping Stuff beyond what the public markets are serving that it it does feel and especially with the IPO window just just like being closed for so long it just seems like um that needs to if if if the regs change Ono public then crypto will continue to just serve this like no matter what you do but I'm curious like how what do you yeah what's the solution there like yeah I think that the problem that the lawyers or like these projects have been saying is that you know they there's just is no framework for how to do this properly and maybe it does come in and it's like a lot more burdensome than it has been in the past which like is definitely possible but at least like

people can build this technology and build these things with uh out being afraid of of going to jail or like you know with some certainty I think just like the market really hates uncertainty and then you know on your point about aping things I think that's why like meme coins are so popular it's just like people just want to buy stuff that can go up a lot and that's like a more of a symptom of like cultural and economics yeah I think uh if you read Matt lavine's column yesterday was pretty good and there's basically two outcomes now from the Trump if he relased to like Pro crypto one of them is like actually creating new rules and papering new regulations and working with the

industry and that'll be good for like the long-term health of the industry you know the the number one one reason why us markets are the best in the world is because they're like deemed as like safe um there's like Fair rules there's investor protections and so that's why a lot of institutional Capital comes in and so that's like one that's like the I would say that's the bigger bull case and then the other one is like this hands off approach where they just stop enforcements don't make any new rules um and just kind of leave it be and you know things will get like probably a bit crazy prices will go up and stuff people will have fun but it won't it probably won't gain like that institutional those those like big institutional flows

because it'll still kind of seem like a bit of a joke I guess um so hopefully we get like some some like good thoughtful um you know most people want just like new rules it's not like we want no rules and just people to be able to like launch rugs and raise a lot of money for so I think if we just get some like new thoughtful regulation that would be the best kind of like outcome yeah I think both paths are are BTC goes up one in in in the one where there's less constructive regulation and and or

just you know less interesting stuff getting built then BTC domum is going to be a lot higher than it would be otherwise in a world where there's good regulation which leads to interesting apps and kind of a longer tale of stuff but yeah the good regulation putting like the drfi stuff on chain like the tokenization of like private recity funds Venture funds stocks on chain like that I think is where you actually have like obviously there's going to be a lot more regulation with that than it currently exists but that's where like you know everything that's like the whole Vision like everything happens on chain Finance happens on chain like that's the true super cycle for crypto and it's like is there liquid tokens or

Venture bets that you can get exposure to that right now it's kind of hard to know but definitely I think a massive positive for the space just bringing that legitimacy and capital onto these rails even if it's like you know gated kyc or stuff like that yeah but hard to see a world where memes don't do well in all of this especially in the next couple years um yeah it's just like people are don't have a lot of money and they want to hit it big on things and like not even they don't even have money even if you do have money like if you see if anyone sees something going up 10x or 100x everyone's interested in parti ating I

just think if you could buy like open AI or like data bricks or anthropic or some of these things on chain like if you have crypto AI projects that have that level of narrative like something like naous research which is sort of a legit like you know State of-the-art AI lab and and they and we find good ways to to tokenize these things in a way where you're you're confident you have exposure to the upside I think those things will like Eclipse memes just because of the capital they can can attract I don't think they're the same uh they're tapping into like there's there's definitely some overlap in capital but not not really right like memes you you break out into the people playing the scratch off pump fund early stage stuff and then the the larger ones

that are listed that people trade as Market beta um and then this I think would be its own bucket where uh it would bring on a lot of capital and maybe shift away some of the more fundamentally investors but I don't I don't necessarily know that there's going to be that much cannibalization of of meme Demand with that I think it is just going to be a decent amount of new money I'm not saying zero but I don't think it's going to be enough to to kind of slow down the demand for for the memes too much um yeah I agree with that I wanted to um we have like a few minutes um I'm actually curious we've never kind of done this but like when do you guys think BTC hits under K now yeah that and also I'd love to hear how everyone's positioned like what are your

biggest what are your biggest bags right now and what are you positioned all right 100K I think um Q2 2025 or q1 2025 let's say I think before end of year oh really damn uh we know how yanan's positioned probably like sometime in 2025 if it were to happen before the year that would like things get really crazy the setup is there yeah I want to say I want to say before end of the year it's just like there's what a month two months maybe Santa Santa Claus rally

Santa Claus rally Pump It 50% um I'm actually gonna say uh like Q3 which is a bit delayed I guess but yeah yeah I just think like the the the tax cuts are are nice right but I think the the one Boon that we haven't had in in our lifetimes has been uh deregulation and that that is so massive in ter terms of like GDP growth across so many Industries even like housing costs like a third of housing cost is permits and time and all this other a third yeah it's like it's something gross and so I think like that I there's a world where that gets priced in before the end of the year and and

then you just you know if you look historically anytime there's been a really good first three quarters last quarter is really good uh there's typically a lot of chasing that happens and so I think we have a really strong end of year and and you can yeah there's a chance where we get it um I don't think it's like the the the fact that you have a red sweep is priced in at all so am I the most bearish one here I just said sometime in 2025 it's not even an answer that's just like you don't want to give an answer well yeah in the year 2025 like I have to give a quarter I have to be quarter specific no it's fine how are you positioned uh well I definitely sold some stuff and I talked about that before you yeah going into the election

because I thought that if um K like basically we'd have the opposite candle of what we've had right like if Trump was priced in at over 50% and then we had this on the back of his win and maybe we had some extra juice because of the the full sweep but you would have like something similar in the other direction and you know then like a lot less positive outlook on on where regulation is so I thought that the risk was more to the downside but now that it looks like you know barring anything crazy he's going to be in and regulations going to open up you know where I've had the most success as Jose says that the gem Hunter is is searching for these kind of smaller

projects um and so now that this is just like you know four years plus of like fertile ground for these smaller projects and you know although major ripped right off the bat you typically see this you know delay in in the smaller project and in the alts that so you're cashed up or you have no Majors I'm 25% cash maybe 30% cash I was like 31 32 like probably 33% cash before the election then got rebalanced down to whatever like low or high 20s yeah no Majors all in like different projects I think are cool actually something I'm doing on my Twitter which I just funded an account a few days ago with uh 100K

usdc I trying to run it up I'm going post like some videos and um some some like weekly updates on that so that'll be soon attive trading on that not active what are your top three biggest positions then other than banana gun is the biggest one um then I have a lot of synaps proba too much synaps but um and then also I had a pretty big position in in gold miners but but then the rest of them I have like a ton of different things that um why the gold miners by the way when I when I charted them they didn't seem to

outperform Gold that I sent you that like trading they seem to much don't outperform gold or don't outperform Bitcoin over the long run but like there's can be Pockets where bitcoin's ripping where they have like insane outperformance okay but gold has been ripping why haven't they been ripping you think uh well were doing really well and then the biggest minor in the index numont like had terrible earnings they went down to 133% in one day last week so all right yeah all right Yan how are you positioned um yeah I got I'm like before into election I got like one and a half times long um that's very long just long BTC

Soul memes uh in terms of like perss and then I have you know positions across uh certain less liquid ones that that are like longer term plays um but yeah just kind of kept it simple with the the fastest horses what are your so BTC so and then memes what are your big biggest uh I got um with popcat I should have probably scooped some Pepe instead of eth in hindsight um like same bet better better horse um but yeah mostly those and I picked up some bunk it kind of seems like they're going on listing spree all right interesting so you don't

have any any utility coins other than your uh Athena of course okay yeah that's my that's my biggest utility coin bag yeah cedus what's your uh I got I I mostly have mangers for the most point but like Soul I'm still over with Soul cuz I think like while eth BTC probably bottomed I think the SE thing Soul eth just goes up uh so like Soul BTC e s I like s it's like my ALT one um and then outside of that it's like you know I like goat and uh meta has always been I don't know if the meta is considered like

utility i' just like always been bullish on meta metad guys but mostly yeah it's mostly just like I just like majors and like you know farming and stuff I don't trade burps or anything yeah did you get so you did not get long for the election I mean I I'm like 100% I don't own stable coins okay so nice like I think like here meta is a good example of something where you know I sold some the probably it's just like the liquidity on it is very bad that's like yeah like I I don't necessarily think this is a good price or bad price I sold some recently um so but for example just to like kind of highlight the point that I

was making it's like you know November 4th it was $2,900 and right now it's trading at 3,000 and it's like pretty low so it's up like you know not that much and it's pretty low liquidity so obviously like the price jumps around a lot but you know these are like the smaller type of plays that are let's say like you know sub couple hundred million market cap that you know if you believe in them and have a fundamental case they don't always like the really liquid stuff that's like known Market beta is the stuff that's going to rip you know on the the Trump Victory and the less liquid stuff that you know requires more diligence to understand and and get bullish on and where there's like you know like possible returns like multiple

multiple times yeah you also have a way bigger bigger risk of getting like stuck with stuff like that right yeah it's just like you have more time to react it's like okay you have this favorable regulation come in and it's looks like it's going to be a really good environment for the next four years not everything in the market can repic to that in 24 hours or in real time as it's happening right so like there's a lot of opportunity to go across these kind of smaller projects and look for stuff that's you know fundament this stuff is going to or like the election results are going to like massively improve their fundamentals or just crypto going up in general is going to massively improve their fundamentals and like take positions especially like if you're you know retail investor not trading like

crazy size like there's a lot of time to kind of look for that versus like all the really big names that are correlated to the market are all going to rip and it's like yeah if you miss those if you miss the move on the election then you know how much juice is there left there uh it's kind of like more dependent on the market where you can kind of get these smaller ones that move not necessarily in line with the market and have some delay and some opportunity nice myself yeah Majors I'm gonna guess that you're just like mostly Ethan Athena I have actually soul is my biggest uh notional position but then E's the second biggest sadly um and then Ena um and memes like and I have met and

banana gun as well but just hard to buy those and yeah hard to buy a reasonable amount of those and then memes but I'm not you mean it's hard to buy a reasonable amount of banana no I mean I mean mainly meta to be fair yeah my my biggest are banana and and roll bit nice so all four of us banana gun no longer no I don't have I don't have banana gun oh you sold yours long time ago for a mistake I lost all the money I sold it for okay what you put it in uh front Tech that was aun that was like the yeah that was the fastest I've ever

evaporated same yeah straight down as well like there was never a a single relief yeah there's nothing to do all right I think that was uh we're over an hour now want to maybe yeah wrap it yeah thanks very much for tuning in guys and we'll catch you again in in two weeks where hopefully Bitcoin will be nearing 100K for to yep thank you thanks everyone see everyone [Music]