Hivemind: Liberation Day, Timing Token Launches & Circle IPO

Transcript

Trump announced the tariffs and I don't know I think they were probably the worst that that people expected like I think they were worse than expected because they were made up we're just going to throw out the most ridiculous madeup math out there and this is where we're going to start at you thought there'd be certainty right that's what everybody was saying is like at least we'll get certainty on April 2nd and now we'll know and there's absolutely zero certainty nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell Securities or tokens this podcast is strictly for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions not Financial [Music]

advice I look so [ __ ] weird you look like the kids I used to play soccer with when I was 15 thank you that's they had the same haircut they were filthy though if it's any constellation huh they what they were pretty filthy if you saw a kid rocking up with that haircut he was either really good or a complete [ __ ] all right BR that looks weird all right you can just trim the back if it really bothers you yeah he also did like a weird like it's like it's also just funny cuz like it's one thing to be running around like

this in Portugal it's another thing to go to SF with this what happens in SF with this I don't know it's just they're gonna be like who the [ __ ] is this guy they stand out because you're gonna be the only person in the entire city with that haircut nah surely mullet is an SF thing it's not really a mullet though what is it then um I think I mean it is I guess yeah technically it's mullet but but like there's a it's a flavor of mullet you just look so much like shockingly younger like you this taken like five to 10 years off your age I think side when you fade your sides you instantly look younger hi everyone and welcome to another episode of the hive mind podcast

the goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the deli hive mind bringing together some of our brightest Minds from each of the divisions to share insights Alpha and [ __ ] posts today with us we have the usual cast cedus parabus from our cedus from our institutional research arm um Yan managing partner adventures and our shitcoin scavenger Duncan also known as flood Capital uh and I lead Deli Labs our protocol r& D arm so um probably we're just going to talk about tariffs that's really top of mind for everyone we're sitting here on April 3D yesterday Trump announced the tariffs and I think they were much they were probably the

worst I don't know I think they were probably the worst that that people expected like I think they were worse than expected because they were made up yeah he like made up the Tariff rate for a bunch of the countries the formula he took like a bunch of people derived it on Twitter is just basically you take the deficit because it's this there's a lot of Greeks in the formula but basically the elasticities in the in the denominator like add up to one so effectively it's just like deficit is bad you take the the the deficit that you have with a country and then that like reverse engine near the Tariff that you need to bring the deficit to zero so it's like deficit divided by total huh basically deficit divided by total yeah

what's crazy is that like we talked about this right as he was elected around there and I remember Jose you're asking what's his deal with uh like why does he care about like trade deficits so much and like he he just doesn't like trade deficits like that's it right he just doesn't like a deficit necessarily it's more the the the lack of free trade which to his credit he's been harping on that for a long time it's basically what we charge them isn't what they charge us for the same good like the premium that they add the thing is when you look at actual tariffs for the but anyway they released like a 400 page report which I recommend everyone throw into chat PT to

to get the summary about cuz and it's basically like I think you called it Community adjusted you know iFit do like how he came up with the tariffs and that that's basically what this report kind of justifies it's you know Europe he's like we you guys have the trademark on Parmesan you don't let like our Wisconsin farmers use the word parmesan and and like um that you ban our GMO you know hormone infused meat from being sold there um like so so basically adding all these sort of more qualitative things and the same with China right they're not looking at just tariffs they're looking at the subsidies for the that they um on the made in China campaign that they've had like apparently 500 billion

or whatever in subsidies for for Hightech Industries so they they they try and justify these these very high tariffs um there's been a lot of I mean coins are down terrible I think Market hasn't opened yet but it's down a lot in the pre-market I think Nvidia is down like 8% um yeah Gold's down 2% uh the the the tenure though nearly nearly at 4% only only go yeah let keep blowing [ __ ] up it only took a couple trillion of stock market losses um from my perspective it's just like at this point I just I don't know I just kind of like

laugh it off and and wasn't there this penguin Island that he tariffed there's some funny things in it like there's this island that only has penguins in it that now has a I think a 50% tarff on it or something he doesn't discriminate huh and they sell nothing to the US I mean as as you'd expect from Penguins but um and then the also Ecuador is like accused of currency manipulation and their their currencies the dollar there's a couple funny things in there I guess the my my main thing is like what how do people react to What are the second and third order effects and like that's the thing is that you thought there'd be certainty right yeah that's what everybody was saying is like at least we'll get certainty on April second and now we'll know and there's

absolutely zero certainty it's it's just back to they came out with numbers so ridiculous and also it's it like they're they're provably just completely made up right and that is also kind of unhinged it's like are you trying to just show that isn't this like starting point for negotiation though yeah your starting point is like you're completely insane that's your starting point like you haven't come up with anything thoughtful it's just like we're just going to throw out the most ridiculous madeup math out there and this is where we're going to start at and so you're

kind of just putting that down as we're willing to go to this extreme yeah I mean I think if if you if you work backwards from what the end goal is right it's to have the other countries drop their tariffs and and so you kind of can do it two ways right you can go one where it's completely reciprocal and and so it would have come in a lot lower or you can kind of go this Nut Job path and and if you assume that um like most incumbent presidents they lose uh the midterms right like the house loses midterms and so they lose control of the house and so um he has a shortened timeline to to kind of get this stuff done so if you come out like a crazy man then then the chances of of people folding is is much higher I think

US represents like a third of global household spending right so you do have a decent amount of Leverage there and so um if you apply Max leverage and and and reduce the duration of pain there's a chance that it can get reversed quickly I know we brought this up earlier about there being permanent damage done I think permanent damage is done more as a function of of the amount of time that these tariffs exist or I guess like time times rate right so it's just like the the volume of dollars that are that are tariffed so if you if you Max frontload the the pain and countries start caving one by one then in theory there's a chance that the duration of the tariffs times the amount of volume just to understand is is your

position that if the EU comes out and says we'll remove our two to three% tariffs on the US um then the US two to three is not like a two to three is an effective rate because the rates are much higher and and so countries so the US is isn't competitive with certain products so they just don't ship those over and thus the effective like the actual amount that gets tariffed is much lower than than the headline number what you mean sorry the two two it's lower so two to three is is the effective rate right that that that's like what actually gets tariffed but there are second order effects from the tariffs in in terms of countries not actually being competitive in certain products the US

doesn't ship a certain product so it doesn't get tariffs so that is an effective 0% tariff right so if you're not competitive then you're not going to ship the the other goal not only is like to get these countries to drop the tariffs but also this reshoring of the US industrial base which I think is like pretty important and he talked with that in his speech he's like China makes more ships in one Factory in a year than the whole of the us so you know there's probably an element of yes getting these countries to drop their tariffs but also trying to resore some man facturing the two are like in contradiction right like if you want like if it's a negotiation tactic to get uh countries to come to

the table and reduce their tariffs um and then you reduce yours then you're not going to get manufacturing back to the US right if if and if you want manufacturing back to the US it's definitely gonna be better than the smaller degree though because like they they do have tariffs on americanmade Goods so they're already not not as competitive so if you they're very small right like it's it's on on the margin it's it's I don't think these like five to to like it's like two to 10% for for most of these places like is that that margin gonna make it nothing with high tariffs are things that the US actually wants to like on Shore it's all the lower stuff it's for instance like India

has high tariffs on like their cars and stuff us isn't buying [ __ ] cars from India okay um Japan has pretty bad tariffs on us s the the the the problem I have with the China angle playing into this is that everything that they're doing right now is like uniting the world with China and if your if your point of view on this is like China has been the biggest beneficiary of globalization and you know they're threatening the US Empire and all this well slapping all these tariffs on these other southeast Asia company uh countries uh like some of the some of the tariffs are just so I understand trying to onshore production for a lot

of things in the US I think you know there's a lot of Merit to to doing that a lot of that makes sense but you know like Cambodia right well because China sends their stuff to Vietnam Cambodia and then send it like they Skirt the Rules like that I mean not everybody Nike makes all their stuff over there Nike is down like 12% today because of this right they're a US company they are us capitalism they represent like us Sports their brand is is you know all around the world and they make their products in I think like Vietnam or something right but I mean like Vietnam announced all tariffs they're cutting all all tariffs on us Goods like these countries are dropping one by one right and and so if if the Tariff is just so

much harsher against you you're even more incentivized to drop yours particularly when it's the country that's consuming so much of your exports yeah I think they have no choice but to drop but at the same time they're going to become a lot more aligned with like China now and even like Europe is now talking with China a lot and so this is the angle that I don't see because this also reduces you know the amount of I think the big thing now is how much foreign capital is actually going to be pulled out of the us over the next like few years right yeah I think the stuff that Trump is trying to do like this admin is trying to do is like kind of completely changing the structure of like what the US has been in international trade and and the dollar

like they are trying to to reshore which is just like not really compatible with with how how things were previously so there there's going to be like a rocking of the boat for sure and it could blow up um but like no matter how you cut it this is a massive change and also when you look at just like actually where like the real manufacturing goods are made and like what's happened in Russia and Ukraine um like the NATO and the the US have basically lost the war against Russia and that's like a huge shift in in power dynamics right and just like the Warfare is completely changing um you have like in the suos

canal like you know these drones that are like 10 grand you're firing back like a million or two million dollar rocket at them and so like the US really has to to change a lot of stuff um to kind of like restructure their position in the globe and and this is like one one of those steps because they don't make anything in the US anymore and if they've lost their like military prowess in terms of like this Russia Ukraine war that um they've ESS but the US and NATO didn't get involved they like send money a ton of weapons yeah but that's a it's a proxy war and they and they've lost it basically so it's kind of like a

wrapping up of Foreign Wars you know reshoring of production it's a pretty massive change to to how the US has operated historically so there's obviously going to be some some casualties in doing that and and let's see if it works I think probably long term this is better from the US because if you didn't change this at all it's just going down that same path of like insane debt no manufacturing base all the real stuff is made in other countries uh yes you have like Capital markets in intellectual property but it's like when push comes to shove like if China goes to invade Taiwan it's like the US they can't help out Ukraine it's like they're not gonna be able to do anything with Taiwan unless it goes nuclear but this real stuff thing like

all the like the US has the like biggest most profitable companies in the history of the world they're all based in the US yeah think about Apple all of its factories are in China if China wanted to they could just literally steal Apple about Nvidia everything's in Taiwan like it's very fragile in terms of like actual production like those are like two of the biggest companies in the world it's like yes they have the capital markets and the intellectual property but like if things actually like escalate like you know you saw in Russia and Ukraine you know potentially China and Taiwan like what happens if China invades Taiwan does Nvidia and apple just go to zero because all that's like their entire business is over there

it's it's much more fragile than I think people understand and I think this Administration understands that and you're just going down a further like you know like you're just entrenching yourself further if you don't make these changes that's fair um yeah like I feel like everyone's been the the Palmer lucky argument for a while he's he's yeah I I think there's some good podcasts with him um I'll find the article there's another guy who who just he like owned us there's definitely a lot of Merit to the reasons why they're doing a lot of this I part of it is also just like if you like what you your earlier point if they continued down the current path there were going to be issues regardless yeah and

everyone's like super focused on stocks right now which is like Fair because that's the industry we're in but you know when you hear some of these like kind of people lay out the bigger picture it's like it could be a lot worse than like stocks going down um there is here there's a really yeah but I don't know if alienating the entire world World against you is yeah maybe I'm not say going against it in the perfect way but like this is like they're they're they're radically shifting stuff up okay it's Eric Prince the future of War speech um yeah anyways he just writes about how like stuff in Warfare is completely changed and with drones and like what's

happened in Ukraine with like Russia being able to jam like all the new high tax Us weapons within a week and then also like just the the cost mismatch of like a $10,000 drone versus multi-million dollar rocket is just completely restructured war and also like that was kind of the US's thing right they have the most powerful army they can exert their influence all over the world and that could be coming to a change now so there has to be kind of a a shift in what they do you know Mark andreon has talked about this in the past like all of the drones are made in China apparently like I don't know know how this is true but he said that us like military drones for from like a

Chinese company or or like drones that that the US military uses were from a Chinese company so I just think that obviously this is pretty you know crazy for markets but you know what Besson said I think yesterday after the announcement you know what's good for mag s isn't necessarily good for Maga so you know we'll see they're they're some pretty radical changes but I understand where it's coming from yeah also I feel also like the market is like stocks aren't down that much especially considering everything and how extreme this is and so I still feel like this is either bullish or bearish but I think

the the Ridiculousness of the calculation they did it's like making people still think that it's going to be something that will quickly be like resolved or pivoted from right um yeah I think it's it's so it's like the worst case scenario is these these things stay on for a a prolonged period and then you see real businesses breaking because margins are no longer there and inflation and retaliation and like right so if you just go crazy with it then then you have a higher chance of of people dropping these and and and the more like that drop basically you know if if you're going to do it you might as

well be first because then you suffer less if you're going to do it either way but is is there something the countries can do you think to get their tariffs lowered I I think they drop and then it probably goes down to that Baseline 10% and then I I see a world where eventually if Europe would have to increase their tariffs to match the 10% you know or or is it the case that like you have zero like the everyone else has 0% in the US has 10% now going forward is that like the baseline or is it the parmesan thing like you want to be able to have parmesan in the US like yeah eat our cheese yeah we don't want your shitty food though yeah I don't blame you on

either macro step beef that was that was the funniest thing that came out today was the lutnick comment where he's like the EU won won't take our beef and their beef is weak One Step too far bro so or beef yeah I think like the other thing aside from tariffs where they're like making some pretty big changes and they like Risk blowing something up is like obviously the doo stuff um so like we we'll see what happens I know there's like those rumors that Elon was going to be stepping back yesterday I don't know we'll see if those come to fruition but there's definitely risks in like the plan that they're trying to do

and like yeah tariffs you know people if you go into a recession that would really blow out the deficit so you got to assume that this is you know they're starting really high as both like you know partly negotiation and then partly to to help reshore but like if you were to get a recession in the US I think that would like be opposite to their goals of um of like you know shrinking the deficit and stuff the Doge stuff is kind of teared right there's there's the the job cuts that won't really lead to pain in the near term because they have like six plus months of severance but there's the the outright like fraud and and money laundering through usaid which

will have an immediate impact because it's still just less money going into the system um it's it's good to obviously cut that out but but yeah you can't neglect the economic impacts of that it just how much there's actually going to be reduced I think you know there's that's been some of the the criticism against this is it is hasn't necessarily been as effective but it's still uncovered a decent amount of shenanigans yeah probably takes some time just got sacrificed like pretty pretty rough well I still think lutnick if they sacrifice anyone it's G to be lutnick because he's the one that's like pushing all the terrorist it's like Trump's been so behind this though it's

hard like I don't think there's a world where he can scapegoat this on anyone because he's just been so Pro it it's it's it's impossible to separate them from himself at this point yeah and yeah I agree with that so how are you feeling about crypto specifically what's the bull case here for I guess like crypto more rate Cuts uh we're gonna get the the tax rate cut soon yeah biggest tax rate Cuts in US history thing I got to say this is obviously bad timing but like you get reminded of it every like tax season just like remember if you didn't do it this year like settle up your taxes at the end because we literally have just

nuked straight down after like last year ended till now it's always just so risky like gambling because if you think about it too there was no bease in anybody's mind at the beginning of the year like we all thought like people were looking for a bear case and everyone was like I can't find a bear case you know and that should have been the to I guess it's like it's just crazy how fast everything just change and I mean that it can go the other way too right that's the thing um how so like what's the what's the the bull case is everyone capitulates one by one countries start capitulating yeah

everyone capitulates um there's rate Cuts but you're probably going to have like a pretty big shock to inflation right with assuming these things get implemented well inflation's a trend right this would be more of a onetime step up yeah it'll be a one but but it'll be like there will be a one-time step up that's going to look scary um is it wait yeah I guess it is a onetime step up it's also like I mean it it boils down to how inflation's measured right because it won't be the same across everything whereas money entering the system broadly increases the price of everything this is kind of going to be

very idiosyncratic imported goods yes domestic Goods no but I think it'll smooth out for sure so you'll definitely see a step up assuming all these countries keep it and what are you how are you guys positioned is everyone uh like pretty pretty similar did people I've been doing nothing like as I I've been saying that for for a while it's just there's no nothing within nothing of my thoughts within crypto within within like what assets I think what look good what ecosystems I think look good has changed at all like it has not changed at all um and

so it's just entirely unpredictable what about you Yan I know you shorted eth yesterday how's your are you still net long are you yeah still definitely that long I just like help myself sleep at night a little bit more by shorting a bunch of eth what about you Duncan are you pretty similarly positioned like I know you always keep a decent cash position yeah I'm holding on to my cash just to see you're still like 70% or something long right or something long uh yeah well I I did an investment into this robot company so that took off DE my ex like I sold some crypto for that um but

yeah I still have like a good chunk of crypto and then invested in this robot company um what's the robot company uh it's called abtronic it's like a humanoid robot companies yeah so that was like decent check for me just because I thought like if you lay out you know the future of I I feel like this is a very clear case to like monetizing AI you know you have these robots that that can do stuff and you put an AI brain in them and now you have like the whole case of of like infinite human labor and if the us is going more protectionist this is like a US company um you know you got to like reshore

manufacturing this could be an interesting source of Labor I don't think they're going to let in like Chinese humanoid robots so I think Tesla figure optronics uh agility and maybe there's a you know Boston Dynamics got sold to Hyundai but like there's maybe like five five or six big players that are kind of like North American in this humanoid space atronics partnered with Google so uh like on the brain of the robot so uh I think it's going to be like kind of once these things can actually do useful work at human speed without like being babysat it's going to be kind of like the Chad GPT moment again yeah you don't even need human speed right you need you need 70% of it because they're working

three three times as long per day no sick days infinite demand you'll start getting like EV subsidies for these things too probably or EV like subsidies agreed but yeah in terms of cash I feel like I'm just kind of waiting to see I feel like this stuff like everyone kind of wants it to be like a like let's puke and then V bounds um but I like the terar thing might be drawn out the Doge stuff might be drawn out you know if inflation comes back a bit the FED stuff might be drawn out uh so I think ultimately we're going to go

higher and like it would be really cool to see like even right now you know Bitcoin is is a decent amount higher than than its lows kind of earlier in March so it would be really cool to see like Bitcoin Rec correlate with gold or something even a little bit um and you know some sort of signal like that but I'm just not rushing anything I guess yeah unless you see everyone drop them all at once it's hard to see a world where we be bounce and it's also Tax Day in the US soon right so that's historically people don't plan well for that and like some Force selling

potentially yeah but that that could often get kicked back to like October oh yeah okay well we will see I think like if you have specific names you like that you're long-term bullish on like it's good to watch them if they like weirdly sell off more than other stuff because there's like a for seller or like a fund redemption or something um you know because that can happen even even if the broader Market hasn't bottomed like some funky Dynamic of like a fund redeeming or you know some big seller for taxes you can you know maybe look to build position in those names but that's more on like kind of the alt side I wonder if hyper liquid will get a sell off because you know

obviously massive air drop in November so some tax implications for people no they did they did that really low air drop price thing so I think it's still all mostly cap gains yeah yeah for for the airdrop depends how you treat it but it like ran from like 2 to 30 like so fast in such like a small amount of time that like you know probably more opportunities for like people to to have pretty big gains versus like an asset like Soul that's you know been around for a very long time I feel like there's just higher CH well I think if people took profit they probably would have sold in like Jan right like wait until the new year to lock in things that have

gone up a lot and then you sell in Jan so the selling pressure would have been it just went up the for selling would be basically uh people who sold half their position reinvested that cash into stuff that went to zero and now one of their few remaining bags is hype and they have the tax bill yeah the selling pressures people who bought AI agents in October sold them in December put it into hype right and now are like oh [ __ ] that is a massive tax bill and I have to sell all my hype to pay this yeah to be fair on those agents like the door is very small right on the way out so it's you didn't have enough people ideally realize too much oh my

God the [ __ ] agents that literally feels like I just pulled up the virtual chart oh this feels crazy pix and shovels sir literally five cent or 50 cents to5 back to 50 cents in like five months four months that was pretty insane yeah everything is so bad and it's like you try and find charts to like dunk on people who are bullish on one thing and then you remember all the things that you were bullish on to it's like literally everything yeah I you can't even dunk on E anymore because it's like oh it's only down 50% yeah I

think looking for specific things you really like and then like if they get weirdly sold off could like you know maybe start starting that process now and like truning in um could could be good it's just yeah it's definitely tricky because there's so much uncertainty right now yeah the a big thing will be upcoming earning season and and the guidance that they give I think that's going to dictate a lot in the coming months yeah wait did do you guys see this creatine stuff that was on Twitter the other day like that that like 20 grams of creatine after not sleeping for like 20 hours

like reversed all the sleep deprivation 20 grams is a lot 20 G is a lot I've five Scoops five there like 20 or 25 grams like four or five Scoops the first time I went to take routine I did the loading phase and it made me feel like [ __ ] and so I just never did that again you don't really need to do loading no you don't it just takes a bit longer but it's fine it's like the loading phase just makes you get saturated quicker but loading phase I did in college when cattin was a lot shitty than it is now you you should watch this podcast they have this like Canadian creatine PhD on and he's just like literally Shilling it on everything it's like for your brain like for your

muscles for your immune system he's like I flew today I'll take 15 grams because my body's a little stressed and so so what's the angle here is there a token or is this just par the contract it's not a token it's just a therapy session on the tariffs today I think for like you got to be chugging so much water if you're taking that much otherwise you're going to be Charlie horsing left and right yeah I I'm I'm going to start to take 10 grams see if it makes a difference you did yeah I don't know that feels like a waste but up to you because I was on five grams but also eating like 80 90% red meat so I thought I was like getting probably enough but this guy's like really just like if you can take more do it and you'll just if it doesn't give you any

issues because you'll just like pee it out if doesn't give you any issues oh did you guys see that RH stock what was that so bad we're discussing CR The Hive mine restoration they got dinged on everything though they because they have uh they import they produce internationally um and then the demand side too just from rer slowdown did you send in the erns call where the guys like oh [ __ ] [ __ ] oh oh [ __ ] I just looked at my screen were down 25% all right here's something we can talk about now should projects launch like their tokens now like is this a good time no I actually think it

might be a good time goal is well guns launch a token uh now I don't know I think like you know hi and a few others always say that it doesn't matter where you launch your token at all it's like irrelevant or other people say it's better to launch in a in a down Market because you get let people buy uh at lower prices I personally still think the best is to launch a peak Euphoria bull market but but for who though just gets for the team for the for for the team and in obviously it's not better for the people buying it on the open market but I think for for teams and projects there's just like some psychological anchoring that that happens I think that's that's tough to like I just think

do do do you guys think if movement uh start to pick on movement yeah I think best is like two months a month before a prolonged bull is the best time to launch because you get like an accumulation period and then and then like you get the benefits of a long Bowl Tia last year actually their timing was basically perfect because they launched right before the bull started maybe they launched too like it was literally right as The Bull started and then they did that run to like 20 bucks and then obiously they just sold off for like a year but I think when you launch high like think about something like right it launched at like five bucks it's sub a dollar now it's just been a steady grind down the whole time yeah it depends what

your goal is if it's like if your team's looking to extract as much money as possible then yeah you want to launch but you're never gonna get back there so as an employee and like I guess you could sell TC but like isn't that kind of demoralizing that you've hit like your high water mark you're still at a billion dollars like what are they at at a dollar it's like .5 now it's getting close to sub Bill like I think anybody large company like 1.5 billion is like a company that will make like hundreds of millions of dollars a year I know that's the scary part is there anywhere you can buy guns on like chain or anything or is it just only Sexes will'll be available

shortly yeah this like 27 mil market cap 450 mil fdv is like yeah with that could definitely unlocks being just gameplay over of 10% over the next year yeah that could be pretty squeezy at some point yeah I don't know I I understand the high Watermark like if you're paying with if you're using your token as currency to like give out grants or like pay for any kind of work done you have more money to give right and so that's obviously very powerful and useful but but a lot of the basically every project that succeeded and lasted over

time traded relatively low for a period um I kind of feel like it's inevitable that you have to go through that period at some point so it's like you wanted at the start like salana launched what the day after uh black Thursday in 2020 and salon's alltime chart you could accumulate you had you had two occasions for like a pretty long period of time to accumulate soul and that's why it has like such a strong and Vibrant Community and you know maybe maybe like something like Tia can end up being that too if it

just trades at like three sub three dollar for like a year or something and then figures it stuff out and comes back but like something like Salon is like okay if you know like this Project's like super successful five years later then yeah it probably doesn't really matter right what we've seen is like 99% of these projects are overvalued when they launch so like for the Insiders and team it's best to launch at the highest valuation possible but like if you think you're G to make the next salana you have super high conviction in that then yeah it doesn't really matter when you launch right it doesn't matter but it but it's path dependent right like I think it matters to some extent like being able to have you know more efficient incentives more

efficient grants to attract people to your project like I don't know yeah but you have to Bal I guess I guess that's the question do you want to balance like having a big war chest on paper um like not it's not always on paper though right like a lot of these projects can convert these through like treasury sales um like a lot of the times the foundation's unlocked and it's dumping on these high launches right and and and getting cash like there's there's l so the big treasury or like you know have a chance to build like an organic Community or you could do kind of a mix of like big airdrop and good valuation so you have a community yeah I think if you're if you're optimizing for five years out and

you know you're GNA have consistent Cycles then it's probably best to launch in a bull where you can raise the most cash like Peak bull raise the most cash survive a bear and then the expl you're better set up than in any other scenario but like You' need to know all of those other things to be true in order to to rationalize that yeah it's kind of possible I feel like something like hyper liquid they obviously had a really good product but the way they did their launch I think was pretty solid right the big aird drops they have a really big community and there's like a couple days to get in at a pretty cheap price and then now it's at like a pretty good valuation where they have a good War chest yeah I think though on thing with

hype is that people don't acknowledge enough that the team was just buying a [ __ ] ton yeah so you're not going to have that with like any other launch like Monet isn't going to launch and then start aping the treasury into like Nat like Founders that are yeah just very very flush yeah Chad what's this like is this yeah how' you know the no no it wasn't the founder it was the the accumulated fees they had like 80 million in accumulated fees that they just like were aping in on launch well no it's also like you're going to have you have a scenario where the founders don't need to sell this thing yeah at all and the founders are super wealthy so yeah but they're not unlocked

anyway no no but but yeah it it doesn't really matter kind of thing um I also think it with hype it's hard to have made a mistake because of the success of the product right ultimately that can correct for any other token related mistake but they could have [ __ ] it up with a small air drop yeah it would have been a much uglier chart the thing is though like hype is trading like one of the worst assets right now and markets are extremely volatile and theoretically hype is the type of product that would do well in very volatile I think it depends on the window you're using right like I think because it didn't draw down as much earlier it's drawn down more more recently yeah like it it went on an

absurd run it went from $2 in November and but even from like Peak right it it didn't draw down it drew down to to the mid low to mid 20s and sat there for a while while everything else nuked considerably and then it now it's down another 50 yeah I yeah it's down more than everything you would compare to year to date though okay year to date yeah I know but what about since November still up like five oh well yeah sure November or like alltime highs you know it's down basically two3 yeah definitely not fantastic but everything's down like this much right everything's down more yeah it's down 70% from the very P like Peak what's Soul

down is soul gonna like cheat death and not the Trump pump oh yeah it's funny how we were talking about how is this a top signal and it absolutely was and we convinced ourselves that it wasn't because this is like a new paradigm so be at 500 Melania didn't drop Soul has bounced off 110 one two three no 120 and now it's it's 12 boun off like 110 120 like five times you think it's gonna survive again think it's it's gonna cheat death who knows I still think that eventually whenever the market comes back soul is still good though yeah like but if Soul

if Soul breaks down here oh it could go to like 80 bucks yeah juicy entry on it yeah 80 bucks would be 10x the last bare Market low which is still pretty high considering it was only a few years yeah I mean we seen crypto typically front runs a lot of this stuff so it'll be interesting to see if if that happens again here but like the thing is btc's like not even like if you look at it rela obviously on an absolute basis it's down a lot but March you have these like really sizable idiosyncratic buyers though right you know tlor bought last week and somehow managed to get 86k execution on two billion which is like

impressively bad uh then um you know GameStop announced that they raised one and a half billion who knows and they're deploying but there was a big coinbase premium earlier in the week we did see some inflows yesterday uh from the ECF so there's that you know decent size I think one of them had over a 100 um and so yeah and then Mara is raising a bunch let's see if that's getting deployed there's that one tweet about an Indian company that that that's selling shares to buy BTC but it's they they fail to mention that it has a market cap of six million bucks uh yeah so like QQQ down 2% since the March 11th lows and bitcoin's

up like it's up 8% from there so it's like it's hanging in yeah yeah I think from the election is probably the where you want to measure the most and Bitcoin was what like 68 69 or something so yeah still I some part of me is like if you if the US economy really moves to like real and the whole world kind of moves to like this more realist approach like it's multi-polar there isn't just someone the US protecting everyone uh everyone needs to develop their manufacturing base You're Building like you know missiles and planes and stuff like that I just feel like it's it is

long-term bearish like magic coins like alts in in general you know in the sense that they were sort of uh uh like a lot of the like animal spirits and alts were like an offshoot of of printed money and and like debt how do you think they're gonna find all the military spending everyone printing exactly it's in it's it's like extremely us is not is not like I mean the the us right now is taking like trying to take like a trillion dollars out of the market right like between tariffs and um I don't think that that's gonna work I mean there's no way doge is saving that much money I don't think that that that it's gonna

work but like even didn't the ger like didn't Germany announce like some insane stimulus package yeah 500 and Germany has been in austerity for like yeah years so it's if everyone individually is like okay the US isn't protecting us anymore and like everyone needs to rebuild that's like pretty stimulative yeah it could be inflationary but I think it's gonna create like a lot more need for investment in in printing money like I think Bitcoin actually this positions Bitcoin really well like Bitcoin for sure it's I mainly mean like the long tiil of I if if Bitcoin has like another period of outperformance this other stuff's probably going to run

as well it it could be that kind of meme of like the roller coaster getting smaller and smaller but there's still going to be some stuff that that does well like there's some stuff that's like super linked oh what about the circle IPO yeah their balance sheet looks trash it's not that attractive of a business yeah yeah so they spend so much like tether does not spend any money on like Partnerships and stuff they S A coinbase like yeah coinbase is the one who makes money off coinbase makes money off usdc and coinbase makes money off eth like with their role of Base it's like coin Bas is just figured out how to extract the value from both of those

businesses can you explain and then cires margins going to go get even worse once rates come down I think on paper people were thinking that Circle would probably be pretty sweet but you guys I haven't looked at the numbers at all so so what's the agreement with coinbase it's basically like a customer acquisition cost you know how you can earn uh um on your usdc on coinbase they just take a a fat chunk of that so how much is there I mean I think they made 150 mil in in in profit yeah only made 150 mil don't they have net income and then iow is 300 but you know if it's launching at um at uh at five billion that's like 40

times earnings on a bank Jesus Christ but so they have 60 billion in usdc and they made 150 million they have a lot of employees too but so they should probably gut some of those I don't think you need a thousand people to Run Circle at 60 billion at what interest ratees four and a half percent that's 2.7 billion it 2.7 billion in interest but they pass through most of it to people in coinbase well just I mean it's it's margin to begin with without without coinbase even being there right because you need to be competitive on the yield for other people holding cash doesn't

pay yield yeah tether's just figured that out how to inject itself into every trading pair and it doesn't need to I mean tether's just a per collateral right like kind of and also I feel like it's probably the most that's like real world used as well yeah anyway guys I got to jump to a to co yeah we can we haven't had a lot to talk about today so probably fine probably the beginning too it's pretty on brand for the I said we should leave all all the issues in the beginning too pretty on brand for the the episode yeah yeah the issues of what Jose I don't know maybe let's see two weeks from now

maybe things uh even the combo interesting more interesting things to talk about in two weeks for now it's kind of just like let's see how it goes all right everyone remember to take creatine cheers guys see you hey everybody [Music]