Hivemind: Don’t Sleep on Ethena, Bull Case for Galaxy & The Hyperliquid Future

Transcript

I still have all my spots. Like I'm still very obviously, you know, long and bullish, but um just short-term like tactically like very cautious. And I think like we could spend more time in this in this like 110 to like 115 area than a lot of people probably want >> as we break out of 115 right now. >> Are we as it puts in a$1,000 candle? Nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is strictly forformational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions, not financial advice.

[Music] Hi everyone and welcome to another episode of the Hivemind podcast. The goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the deli hive mind. Bringing together some of our brightest minds from each of the divisions to share insights, alpha, and ship posts. Today with us, we don't have Cedus actually. Um he he's away on a on a company retreat. But we do have Yan, managing partner, Delphi Ventures, ventures associate, uh, or or rather ventures partner Duncan, who is prodigious shitcoin and now also public market scavenger, uh, and and Ko and Galaxy K. Um, and then we have Jason

here who's a regular on on the pod. What's your title again? Head of markets at at Deli Research. >> Yeah. Yeah, it's fine. It's not a big deal. >> Perfect. I'm Jose. I lead Deli Labs, our protocol R&D arm. Um, it's been a hectic week in well, a hectic two weeks, I guess. Um, we're going to start off talking about markets. Maybe we want to start with you, Jason, actually on markets. I've been reading your posts in the chats, in the pro chat, in the in our in our pure alpha chat. You seem to be making somewhat bearish noises, which uh which worries me. Could can you give a a summary of like where where you're sitting right now?

>> Uh, sure. Um, so yeah, th those more bearish rumblings were like probably like a week and a half, two weeks ago. I was um I was just getting like really concerned with um I put like out a a post on Twitter. I was kind of just like more of like a sanity check for myself. I was like, okay, like what are all like the good things happening right now? And like what are all the not great things happening right now? Just trying to like gauge, you know, um how the market is. >> What are the not great things that are happening? All right, let me pull up my post really quick. Take two seconds. Uh, >> you can't remember because there's just nothing bad happening.

>> No. Okay, so, uh, positive signs, uh, at the time, and this was like, uh, late July, so like two weeks ago or so, um, you had a bunch of these DATs or digital asset treasury companies, um, announcing, right? We had I don't know we had like we had like 10 or 12 or 15 at the time and you continually seem to be seeing more pop out of the woodwork. So I guess like from a buying pressure perspective both in the like present moment and in the future that's probably a positive sign. But it's also probably at least a little bit of a sign of like like frothyish behavior. At least it's it's kind of like the way I um have been taking a bunch of these announcements

recently. um you you you see continual ETF development, right? So you you have Soul coming um probably later in in Q3 and it probably uh maybe gets announced with staking, maybe not, but you probably get the Soul ETF soon and then if not at the same time with with that you get, you know, staking versions of that for for Soul and and ETH and and everything else that uh staking applies to. Um, obviously you have things like uh Genius Bill, Clarity Act, which are um passing and and gaining uh progress in in in Congress. Um, you had pretty good ston earnings across the board for for most tech related

companies. Um, wasn't horrible. Wasn't like the best quarter, but obviously like like I said, wasn't horrible. It was like pretty pretty decent. Um, and obviously you have rate cuts coming in the next couple months at the at the very latest probably. So like you have a bunch of like decently good signs in that. And then I guess like what I call it like the not great signs is you have all this really good um news headlines and things like that and Bitcoin kind of was was trending lower or sideways and a and and lower while all of those things were were kind of happening which was um you know usually a warning sign, right?

You want to see price react to news in the way you would expect it to and if it doesn't then that's you know a good sign. >> This had to absorb that Satoshi era whales. I mean, you did have that, right? You had that 40,000 or whatever it was being selling his money or sending his his coins to to Galaxy for them to sell, which they did over one weekend. But, >> uh, that did send prices down like, you know, one and a half 2% and it recovered pretty pretty much immediately and then started rolling over again. So, it's like another kind of like sign there.

Coinbase Premium, which is something that's like kind of accompanied all all of the strong trends that we've seen for the last like year and a half, has started going negative again for the first time since like mid to late April uh after we started getting some like tariff resolution to liberation day. So that's another thing. Um there's just like some some technical related things as well that like people who are like trading are kind of like keeping an eye on like high time frame like big divergences. Uh, we saw one of my favorite like frothy indicators popping up a week or two ago, which is um, altcoin OI and volume dominance was equal to or greater than that of BTC OI

and and volume dominance, which typically is something you start to see at like local tops or like trend reversal type things. Um, and then obviously you just always have like a tsunami of token unlocks. So, like when I was like kind of like trying to figure out like how I take all of these things and like massage it into like a view, it's just like something that for for me was just very easy to be just like very shortterm short to midterm like cautious. I still think we we make new all-time highs either in on on Bitcoin in in Q like late Q3 or or Q4. That's like my base case right now. But, um over the last two weeks, I've just been I've taken off like all leverage trades.

I still have all my spots. So, like I'm still very obviously, you know, long and bullish, but um just short-term like tactically like very cautious. And I think like we could spend more time in this in this like 110 to like 115 area than a lot of people probably want >> as we break out of 115 right now. Yeah, I I think that um >> as as it puts in,000 candle >> just like how big the 80,000 BDC sale was. Like the total ETF AUM is 53 billion and we had a $9 billion sale in like a week.

>> So, uh most of that got sold in like 24 to 36 hours. Market didn't really move on that. So actually I I think yeah there's a good bullish argument to make there a couple ways right so you have that that got absorbed at the same time you had you know sailor has been uh deploying cash from preps he he dumped that 2.5 billion and he got that 117.2 entrance last time which was actually pretty impressive because it was barely below that for a pretty short period of time. actually, you know, in that time frame deployed well, but obviously we're we're lower now. But I think all that to say the the market's kind of outgrowing these individual buyers and sellers,

which is which is really good to see, right? So the big concern right now is that sailors uh what happened in the recent earnings call was uh anytime MNAV is below 2.5, he can't do equity sales into the market. So basically, if if the if the the market cap to his holdings is below a two and a half multiple, he can't sell equity shares into the market and and use that to raise cash. And so he's been doing that pretty consistently and and there's a lot of concern that we've lost a pretty um consistent basically passive bid into the market and and for sure that's not great, right? And and so it's it's MNAV, so that means you you need his market cap

to outperform Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin going up is obviously good for the stock in the grand scheme of things in terms of, you know, his continued ability to raise cash through different vehicles, but in terms of this premium specifically, it actually doesn't really help. Um, so, you know, you do need Micro Strategy to to kind of bounce and and if you look like past couple weeks when equities were doing well, it was a bit of a lagard, right? And and that's certainly a point of concern. I think part of it was just more selling. Um but at the same time, you know, you you have these one really large sellers and then him consistently buying but and and in those times price didn't really move around too much. So at this point it's you know this is Bitcoin is insanely liquid,

right? It's it's argu it's probably the most liquid asset on earth right now. Um and so you uh you you have this world where where basically now it's it's kind of a just a a worldbased passive bid. you're you're less reliant on these things. And so, and the reason I say it's bullish is is because right now, everyone's like everyone's focused on on these digital asset treasuries and and them being the source of the bid and then what happens when the the juice kind of runs out, right? And and does this all kind of implode and and go down? And so, I think what you really needed was the broader belief in in all this and and a consistent buyer. And so I think we've kind of, you

know, evolved past the the need of relying on these these vehicles to keep raising cash. Obviously, it's great if they do, but I think the the ultimate best case scenario to to get to a much higher high is that we're not actually relying on them and they will end up being good investments for those that participate, but but the whole space isn't completely reliant on them. Um, at least on the Bitcoin side, right? on the altcoin stuff. I think they can be an outsized driver of of price action because the just the size of them relative to the liquidity of the alt is is like the the difference is much uh smaller.

>> Who do you think the the BTC bidder is now? Just like in that group just like more so like institutions, nation, states. >> Yeah. I don't know. I mean ETF flows have slowed down, right? And and so if you look at like historic ETF flows, they they kind of eb and flow, but they've they've when you've seen um money coming out of them has usually marked a local top. So I think that that kind of adds to the argument for some short-term bearishness on on BTC. But um those have always been or not always, but like the the past couple of of rotations which have lasted, you know, four to eight weeks in terms of strong bids and then a slowdown. You know, we saw an outflow in March. I mean in May you saw a bit of one in June at the end

and it's like it's kind of it's coincided with with price action. So um ideally this is another one that just lasts a couple of days and then the second interest comes back kind of get back and I don't know when the uh there's the the big BTC vehicle launching in in London um from from the same guys as we did uh MetaPlanet. Um, so that that could be a big driver of of kind of bid and and obviously, you know, when there's a a telegraph buyer, other buyers step in. So I think that that can be pretty positive. But yeah, so original question, who who do I think it is? Could be just a little bit from everyone. I don't know that you're going to get disclosures from a nation state buying until they've, you know, fully

decided they're they're done buying. If they're just a passive bidder, there's no real reason to to advertise that until you think you're done buying. >> So, Jason, are you bearish here? I know you were bearish late July. Um, >> bearish the top. >> Yeah. Are you bearish here? >> I mean, like I said, I'm I'm still definitely like very much bullish. Like I I I'm still one I'm still very much exposed to everything in crypto. Um, I just had, you know, a decent amount of like leverage trades on that were um that benefited from like the move from like 110 to like 120. And like I needed to figure out what I wanted to do with those. So like I I'm I'm like I'm not

buying anything right now. Like I would much rather just like buy something at like you know 117 or 118 or something when it's like pretty clear that we're going to make another move towards alltime highs or like when alts start like showing. Um, I mean there's a couple alts that actually look pretty decent right now. Um, so maybe it's it's time to start buying >> talking about Athena there, sir. >> Uh, I mean, Athena is like very much on the um the short list of positions that I would or like uh coins I would like to have a position in that I don't already. Um, I'm like super late to this, but uh, Yan posted like a really good um, kind of like summary about like why Athena is like a

it just kind of like sits like perfectly at a bunch of different like narratives. Uh, you have like the DAT narrative, you have the stable coin narrative, like it it it seems like if there's still like, you know, some more juice left in the tank for for the cycle, which it very clearly does feel like that. Um, Athena is like very uniquely positioned to to to do well with a lot of the uh institutionalization we've seen. >> Athena market cap is at a new all-time high because I guess they've had some big unlocks. Is that correct? >> Yeah. Yeah.

>> The price So the price peaked in January at$130. It's currently trading at 58, but the market cap is up to 3.8 billion, which is an all-time high. USD yield or USD supply at alltime highs, too. And that's been >> by all time high. Yeah. >> Cruising um funding rates. >> Oh, what do the unlocks look like? >> There's a cliffy one in March and then now they are monthly. There's like a big one in March and and now they're they're monthly going forward.

>> There was a big one or there's going to be another. >> There was. >> That was the big jump in in market cap. >> Nice. Yeah, I think supply has been >> has been Okay, that's good to know. Um, >> yeah, I think is is anyone bearish? Y, you sounded pretty bullish. >> Um, Duncan Ola. Yeah, Duncan, what percentage of your net worth is in Galaxy right now before we before we start on this on this on this thread? >> You just had to >> like 50% maybe.

>> Nice, dude. Respect. >> That's it. for how much you talk about it. >> All right. Should we should we do this now? We we've we've promised to give you uh two minutes uh >> on on this thesis >> stuff. Let let us let just just quickly Athena before we jump into to the Galaxy Jehovah's Witness show from from Duncan. Um like yeah supply has gone like funding pretty much I think SUSD yield was at was like at 10% 10 11%. And still you saw this like dramatic expansion in in supply like last year we had you know like 50% SUSD yields at some point and

funding was pretty elevated at like >> 11 10.8% right now. >> Yeah. Um >> here wait I can share my screen with the Athena staff because this is actually kind of cool. I really like Guy when we had him on last week. Yeah. >> Yeah. It was a good one, guys, by the way. >> I enjoyed it. >> Thanks. >> And it's they're just integrated in so many places now that just uh it's so much more sensitive to increases in in like the supply just expands so much more. And I guess it's also more trusted and stuff than it was last year. And so like small increases in in the SUSD yield are really like hit like causing massive expansions in in supply. And I think if we get this flywheel going at

the same time as you have like the digital asset treasury vehicle that was announced um kind of going live, it's it could get and and like the circle catchup trade sort of narrative that you're seeing a lot on Twitter. I think it could get pretty pretty violent and obviously we have a position in Athena. I also hold a ton of unit personally. So >> yeah, this is a crazy ramp. Wow. >> Yeah. Yeah. Funding rates have ticked up recently. That was the a big driver. And then you know you expect >> cuts >> like in the inflows. It's just like insane ramps.

>> Well, a lot of those were the seasons uh that if because you're you know you're looking at uh what is that like a one and a half year chart. Um >> so you know they did seasons and and that got farmed, right? And so that was the the kind of I think those were the the really accelerated elements and then this recent one was >> just broader integrations and and funding rates finally ticking back up with BTC at all time highs. Yeah, the ace >> you get the pretty dope >> the Fed rate cuts that'll be good too. Um, >> okay. So, this is the terms of relative yield opportunities.

>> So, it's pretty linear from here out. What is this TBD? TBD ecosystem. >> Yeah, that's those are like the ecosystem unlocks in general for tokens are a kind of noise. >> Yeah. um they're unlocked, but they they're not necessarily getting distributed. Um it's like the it's mostly optics. Um they're going to get distributed when they get distributed. >> Well, that that looks good. They're crushing. >> Yes, they are. Um >> yeah, one of the higher revenue protocols in the space right now.

>> Yeah. So, what is the flow through to ENA? They haven't activated a fee switch yet, but uh it's reasonable to assume they'll it'll happen at some point. >> Yeah. And guys put together like some um sort of parameters on the forum in which he'd consider activating the fees switch. Like his his goal is to grow market share first, especially at this point. Um, but yeah, uh, I think there's a pretty clear plan with different milestones of like supply at which point he he'd be comfortable like having different fee switches, different levels of of fe share. Um, personally, I I would be more uh on board with just like growing supply at this point and like

trying to get to 20 billion USD um, which I think is is super feasible in uh, especially if we have rate cuts, right? And um and I do think yeah like both yield on Athena and therefore like revenue is going to be like inversely correlated to to rates which is the opposite with all the other stable coin companies. So I think in a world where we have like stable coin mania and still people still want exposure to to to to the stable coin narrative, I think ENA is going to be one of the best places to to get that >> big driver's been so the the the the ra the existing digital asset treasury has been buying up 5 million bucks a day more or less um off of the initial raise

but >> the basically they're going to get they got in at a pretty good price for that ENA. So once it goes live the uh the NAV will actually be pretty high w with price having improved and then you know you assume some MNAF premium on that. And so if you compare to what the the appetite is for the other pure play stable coin exposure in in equities in circle. And so I think they should have a lot more fuel to to deploy and actually be able to play the MNAV game.

And then you know once the fee switch is activated that then can actually generate meaningful earnings right and so you have the combination of just pure digital asset treasury plus some sustainable form of earnings um and and should help that vehicle. >> Nice. Awesome. Yeah. Well, the podcast with Guy was really good. If you didn't watch it, check it out. I talked about Galaxy now. >> Yeah. Go on. >> Okay. So, I put out this thread uh or just long post a few weeks ago or a couple weeks ago and just saying like this is, you know, my biggest position.

I think $100 a shares on the table in the next couple of years. I think how you think about Galaxy is in like three main parts. So the balance sheet business, so I think they have around like 3.3 billion in like crypto cash, crypto venture investments. Um, and the market cap's only like 10 billion. So that's like a big chunk of it right there. And they also like utilize the balance sheet in their other business lines. So it's like a really solid base that differentiates them from like a lot of other Bitcoin miners and crypto companies who don't have this much like cash on hand to fund their other businesses. Uh maybe we'll do the crypto businesses first and then back to the data center business. So they just had their earnings on Tuesday

and Novagrad said that it was like by far the best month in the company's history because like they're I think he said that they've signed over 10 like custody and staking deals with these treasury platforms. They're like looking at doing a few more from that. They've added like two billion plus of fee paying like AUM to their crypto businesses. Um, and then just going through like their their business. So, like their markets business, they have like the second or third largest uh loan book out of all of the kind of centralized players in crypto. You know, nearly 1400 trading counterparties. We saw them execute that $80,000 or 80,000 BTC sale for like 9 billion in notional

volume, which is obviously huge. Like they're a big go-to player for for these big trades. They have their investment banking division which you know they're an adviser to Bitstamp on their sale to Robin Hood. They took part in the core IPO on the recent earnings call. They said that they have like the best looking pipeline they've seen in the history of the company in terms of like quality of deals and the size of deals coming down the pipe. Uh their asset management business. So yeah, they do like staking, venture funds, um just general custody. Uh so this number is like I think seven billion but is up a few billings. So the treasury companies they got $200 million venture fund.

They're like a number four validator for Salana. They're doing ETH uh staking. I think they're rumored to potentially become a hype validator. And um these other cool parts of their business which I think could be big in the future are this like GK8 which is like a fully owned subsidiary doing tokenization. And then they own 33% of all unity which is this first regulate fully regulated euro stable coin. The other 33% is owned by flow traders and then uh Deutsche Bank subsidiary. So like that could be pretty big in the future um for Euro stable coins and and trading European equities.

Um I think the next place to go is probably yeah the data center business. So, this guy on Twitter, Riddenhouse Research, put out a really solid report a few months ago on Galaxy's data center business. I think like the I don't know if we want to get into the Goldman report because that might take too long, but the easiest way to think about Helio >> is they have 800 megawatts of approved power and now Core Weave has like upped their release from 600 megawatts to taking the full 800 megawws. And so if you apply on the 800 megawws, Goldman used a 27x multiple, but you know, anywhere from a 22 to 27x multiple,

that's like 13 or 14 to 18 billion in uh total equity value. So like enterprise value, you subtract the debt that they need to build out these data centers. This is going to be like fully cash flowing in 2028. Um so like the market cap right now is like I think sub10 billion. So you have the $3 billion balance sheet. Goldman, you know, according to their estimates, assuming crypto prices don't change, think that Galaxy's crypto business arm is worth like 6.5 billion. And then you have here in 2028, this could be worth like 14 to 18 billion. But the cool part about this is that they have another 1.7 gawatt under study with um the Energy Council

of Texas. So they're expecting another 800 megawatts to get approved by the end of the year. So if you contract that out at the same terms as the core lease, you know, you're talking about 27 billion in equity value all the way up to like maybe 35 billion, which is, you know, multiples of their current market cap. If they get the full 2 and a half gigawatts, you're talking about 40 billion to like 50 billion, which is like a 5x on their market cap just on Helios alone. Obviously, that's going to take a lot of time to build out and they have to execute correctly. But the really cool thing about their earnings call is they announced they've acquired another gigawatt of pipeline here. So that's takes this up to like 60 billion to like 80 billion just on Helios alone.

And this is like a huge growth business for them. Uh the biggest or one of the biggest data center players in kind of like the data center 1.0 world is uh digital reality. and they only have for instance I think like 2800 megawws uh globally across 300 locations. So these old data centers are like very small like 10 megawatts per location whereas like Galaxy and now Meta and Amazon and Microsoft are building these like multi- gigawatt facilities and Galaxy's at 3.5 gawatt. I think Meta is trying to build the five gigawatt one. So like that's the the biggest competition. So they're right up there with like the mag seven players in the magnitude of this data center plus like looking to do more land acquisitions, power acquisitions,

you know, BTC mining acquisitions to convert into AI data centers. They're working with like a top tier contractor in Texas called Clayco to build the data center. They have this lease signed with Coree. Um it's pretty exciting stuff. So you have exposure to, you know, the two mega trends that are going or two of the mega trends that are going on right now is which is AI and crypto. Um, so I quite like the stock from from that perspective. Um, >> you quite like it.

>> I quite like it. >> You couldn't tell, man. >> What's the uh what's the biggest risk for this not playing out the way you want it to play out? Um since you're so so >> I think it's like execution risk on >> that he's not long enough >> execution risk on building out these data centers obviously like the capex that's going into this 800 megawatt facility from Galaxy's End is like six billion bucks 7 billion bucks which is huge uh and then when you add in like you know all of the chips it's like you like 20 billion or something. It's like

an insanely like huge project on the capex side. So, they just really have to execute there. But so far, they're on track. The the first trunch is going to start cash flowing in Q1 2026. Um so, I'm pretty excited. Things seem to be going really well. What? Any Okay, Jose, you said that you weren't that convinced on Galaxy before we started recording, so please speak up. I said I wasn't that interested. Um Um I don't know. I feel like my like I like having crypto exposure through pure crypto names and narratives that I'm

bullish on and I like having AI exposure through pure AI names. uh the stuff in the middle and like I guess more like value plays or stuff that's misunderstood on the balance sheet which you you kind of show here doesn't interest me as much. Um yeah, I also just haven't honestly like looked into it despite despite um your your ceaseless shilling. I still haven't looked looked into it, but I will. Uh, and this this was interesting actually hearing your your your thesis on I didn't realize the data center stuff they've got planned is was that big.

>> Yeah, it's [ __ ] huge. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The data center exposure is the play, right? You're not buying it. Like crypto is just a nice to have for the narrative. It's a it's a data center play basically. >> Yeah. Like I do think they're going to be a really big player in crypto and they are and will continue to be. But I think you just have like multiple outs with the stock, right? It's like if crypto does super well, they can do well on that alone. If crypto doesn't do that well or they like lose market share, they could do really well on the data center side alone >> and like what's your time horizon on this uh on this hold, right? This is something that isn't playing out in the next 12 months. This is going to take >> Yeah. Well, I think you take it like uh

the guy who wrote this report made like a really good point. He's like just take it earnings call to earnings call. And so far, management has like delivered on everything they said they would and continue to deliver. And as long as they're executing, I think it's kind of hard to be bearish because this is just like such it's going to be such a big industry in the future. And and how does it work? So they build out these data centers and then coreweave is renting them from them to actually run the operations on the on the GPU on the is it training or inference or or what? Yeah, it can do >> given the size of it, I think it's like prefer preferably going to be training.

Um, but it can do inference. It has like a high-speed cable to Austin, so can do either. >> Okay, interesting. And this is just like retooling their existing like Bitcoin data centers. That's what >> they had like 200 megawatts of Bitcoin mining capacity which they're remodeling for the first trunch and then they're just like building the next two tranches out >> fully with Clayco so in core weave and I think like there's been some speculation online that in this 800 megawatt build there's going to be like AMD chips and OpenAI is going to be like the customer of Corewave and so because like AMD's like named their new rack or their new

chips Helios coincidence I don't know, but uh Galaxy Open AAI AMD corewave partnership would be pretty epic. >> Yeah, it seems like a a good time to get in just with people getting kind of getting ahead of their skis going into earnings plus like the overreaction to an EPS miss. Um >> I think that the big news was the upsized in the data center. >> Yeah, exactly. And Nova said like it was their best quarter on the crypto or their best month in July on the crypto business like by far. Like they're involved in all of the treasury companies.

Um so that's like a huge source of of like reoccurring revenue for them. >> Awesome. Um yeah, what what else are you guys bullish on? And >> you got to touch on the the the uh bonk pump situation. I was going to ask uh if you had any updates on that, Yan, since we looks like there's a shift kind of moving back in the other direction a little bit. >> Yeah. What what happened? I I kind of didn't catch up with all this drama. Like it seems like the bunk people. >> Yeah. Basically, Bunk Bunk was was doing some I mean it's it's kind of unofficial um but but casually understood that that this took place. Uh which which makes

sense. I mean, I think it's it's a like it's just one way to incentivize some activity and and and get some runners going and and and you know, liven up the uh the ecosystem a bit. And so, you know, that happened at the same time as Pump's launch and Pump's launch didn't really come with any announcements or anything. So you had this perfect storm of uh buying of pump without followup from the team and then in in tandem with Bon really juicing up the their ecosystem. So fundamentals and market share were really favoring Bon and so you know prices reacted. Bon did well.

Pump sold off. Since then um you know everyone was most people were assuming that the pump fund guys were doing something. they were just kind of silent. And so, uh, they there were two announcements or one was end of last week, which was a shift to, um, sending 100% of of revenue to the buyback. Um, which made sense, right? They sold the token at at four and now they get to buy it back at at 2 point something. So, that that made sense. Um, and it's just a good way to kind of uh, you know, create a bid in into the market. And then, uh, Allan tweeted that they're going to be dropping some bang announcement this week in terms of, uh,

incentives and something that'll really juice activity. So um as a result you know you you assume that some of this some of these rewards will be retroactive as well as forward-looking and and that stimulated um a lot of the activity because if you look at you know a lot of these charts I think they look especially brutal because they are shown on a one-year time scale and and everything's going to look brutal relative to the mania of the end of last year. Um, but I think if you look at it relative to the past couple of weeks, there seemed to have been a bottoming in token creation and and now a spike up in the past two days which coincided with a a decline in in bonk ecosystem activity.

So bonk sold off, pump's kind of doing well here. Um, I think you've definitely had pretty broad-based capitulation. I know a lot of people who who have. Um, and you also saw a lot of the funds do it on chain because of uh, you know, the the raises were on chain. So, you can kind of track those wallets. So, you had a pretty good sell-off there. Um, seems to be on this kind of steady grind up and I think people are just waiting to see what this announcement's going to be and and what they're planning. Um, they they do have a lot of ammo and a lot of tokens to give out. So, I think it's hard to see it disappoint relative to where we are in terms of uh pump valuation, right? Like they have a lot

of firepower relative to a not that large of a market cap and and right now they're sending all the revenue to the buybacks. You have a bid there. Um, but yeah, I think next milestone is basically uh a tweet from Allen or or Pomp itself describing how they're thinking of uh kickstarting the flywheel here. Nice. Yeah, my my average cost is under the ICO price finally on on this thing, but uh yeah, it seems pretty I don't know, seem seems like a buy. uh below like ICO price honestly, especially with them putting 100% of revenue in, but I haven't been following

it too closely. It's not a not a not a large position for me. >> Yeah. I mean, if you look at the uh the buybacks they're they're getting and they released that that new dashboard, too, which is always useful. I think if there's anything teams should do more of, it's really if you if you actually have revenue, it's it's release these dashboards that people can easily look for and site and reference. I think it's just lowhanging fruit and saves people time and and just actually does more to to to stimulate a community than you can kind of imagine. Um because there's no kind of confusion and it's just one uh canonical source and you can make them look pretty. But yeah, the buybacks are, you know, a

couple hundred grand a day right now, which is which is not nothing. And um and that's pre any real bump in activity. >> Yeah. Right. You need to I mean that that that starts picking up a lot if I guess if they take back any meaningful percent of market share, right? Like that that should >> and like the flywheel, right? It's like if we if we're going to give out and and just say 10%, right? that that can be a lot of money and and that stimulates activity which leads to a bigger buyback which leads to a higher price which people will then anchor too. It's like 10% is now this much and so that that that doesn't effect the flywheel.

>> I thought uh I thought I saw something today on Twitter. Um they've started uh I mean yeah they've started taking back market share but like you're starting to see more token launches on on Pump again versus versus Bonk. Um, but yeah, I'm just I'm just I guess kind of waiting like I I got wrecked on a per position and I just holding spot and just [ __ ] just [ __ ] praying just praying it goes up at this point. Um, but I mean, yeah, I guess the fundamental story is looking better than it did a week or two ago, which I guess is progress. Yeah. And I guess it would only be fair to talk about the other big revenue generating token uid

>> hyperlquid, right? >> That one's it kind of es and flows pockets of strength and then you kind of see some some some weakness. I think you you end up seeing a lot of people selling it when market sells off because it's the one asset they have in size that's liquid and they need to shore up some collateral so they don't get licked. So it ends up being thrown out with the bath water sometimes. >> Yeah. I feel like when it got up to like, you know, almost 50. At that point, there's just like so much UPNL from people who received the airdrop, people who bought on TG, and then people who bought during the tariff [ __ ] that, you know, that's like got up to like, you know, 15 billion or so in

circulating cap. >> I mean, there's got to have been a decent amount of churn. Well, I think a lot of big people held for this second run like they held through the first pump and the tariff stuff and now on the second leg have taken some profits just because yeah I think like you know you're getting that churn now but the reason it's kind of was kind of like the darling of the market for a while during the tariff stuff is because like its volume was exploding you know you had that James win guy opening massive positions on it. it was like the fastest horse like pretty reflexive cycle like dynamics and then like Bitcoin slowed down and sold off a bit like Yan said it's like easily available collateral and then there's just this like huge bucket

of money that's been made very quickly uh it's also now into 2026 or 2025. So I think like that could be part of the reason like the first runup was in 2025 December. So like for tax purposes, maybe people want to wait until the next year. Um, so I think it's more less so a fundamentals issue. It's more so like a flows issue for the relative underperformance here. Seems like it's doing really great across like all of its market share stats, like volume stats. Um, and I think that yeah, like one problem with kind of per protocols as you're very successful over a long period of time is like you need to continually add

new users or else like your current user base just kind of gets chopped up and like loses their money. So, I think that like that might be happening on on some level to to Hyperlquid. Obviously, they're still adding users, but you kind of need to find that like, you know, consistently be growing your your user base. And, you know, these like centralized exchanges have massive marketing teams and campaigns to do that. And now with kind of like the initial season's over and like a lack of clarity on like future airdrops and like campaigns to get new traders and like, you know, competition popping up offering those incentives, you probably lose some of those like marginal new customers that you need to sustain your business.

I think like two things that could really kind of reinvigorate them is if they add like uh like coin margin collateral. So like ability to use like BDC or ETH or Salana or Hype as collateral on the exchange. I think that could bring in like a huge swath of new users. Um I also and I think they just like that's they're working on that. it's just going to take time to get like their spot markets liquid enough to to handle liquidations. And then also like more of a longer tail bet, but if pulled off could be absolutely massive is kind of like tokenized equities and like putting those on hyperlquid. That would be

pretty epic. And then also this like HIP3 like these new vaults from from people making them. So I think like fundamentally there's still a lot going for it. It's just like kind of a short to midterm flows issue for for like what Yan and I just spoke about. >> Yeah. No, full on the same page. Like if you look at the the buyback fund, right, that they've they've bought back about 28 million hype and circulating supply is like 330, right? So call it 8% or so. And that's I mean that's that's that's yeah, it's great. And then you know people have done the kind of the adjusted FDV calcs because you assume right like the ecosystem stuff doesn't really get distributed until it needs to and and the team is is both you know very well off and and there are no um

venture bets. So it's like a it's not a true FTV. So yeah on a market cap basis it's it's not cheap. It's not expensive. I think a lot of the stuff ends up getting uh priced on growth though. So, you know, you're you're the the multiple the market gives you as a function of how fast you're growing and and so right now, you know, they're still doing well, but but it's it's kind of plateaued a bit. Um, >> and did they do that? >> They did. I don't know the one that that Paradigm did. I don't I don't know exactly how much that's deployed, but I heard it was it was going to take a few months for the money to be to be in and deploying. I I think I think it's a pretty good buy here. Again, I mean, I

never sold any >> um but I do think this is a decent entry for it. I think HIP HIP 3 could be really huge for for Hyperlid. Um like and I think that's also how people can eventually add like equities and other pairs. And I already know a few teams that are considering uh like adding pairs as soon as Hip 3 going goes live and then subsidizing that. Um, and when I thought like recently we've been doing this thought exercise at Deli. It's actually shout out to Neil who uh we should actually bring him on the hive mind soon, but he's we we we all want to go back to writing research with with um as as sort of founders at least at least like um one one report a year or so. And

his is his idea is like what does the new Mag 7 look like? You know, that there's been more and more turnover in Mag 7 over the over the years. um and that the next 10 years is going to be one of the highest turnover times and like what are the companies that could be in that new Mac 7? like the SpaceX's, the Anderils, the you know depending what you like the Palunteers, depending what you believe about the world. And one exercise that's interesting is thinking like what crypto companies like what crypto projects could be in the new Mac 7. And when I think about it myself, it's basically like L1's like Ethan Soul being the obviously Bitcoin's already uh you know in in the Mag 7. But I think about L1's and then I think about Hyperlquid and and the stable coin

company like ENA spec specifically obviously is my bet. Uh obviously just given flows it has to just given cash flows it would have to grow so much to to to justify that that could have to be trillions of dollars market cap. So, a longer term one, but I really think hype with especially with HIP 3 where you can literally trade anything in the world on it. Um, I really think it it it's like an interesting Yeah, I I'm I'm I'm excited about it. You also had probably, you know, next to the chain getting hacked and and and there being a massive exploit, one of the the the worst things you could have uh for it, right, when when it went down. And

granted, it didn't go down for that long. Um, but if you're a if you're a an L1 DEX, then one of the worst things that can happen is is you going down because obviously positions can't get closed and if there's a lot of volatility, somebody has to take on that bad debt if if positions can't get liquidated. And so, um, and and also just fear and trust, right? Um, so I I think the market reacting to that or or rather the lack of reaction was pretty telling in terms of the degree of conviction of of the holder base at this point. It's It's not super fleety. Um I think it happened at like low to mid-40s and and price moved down to the low 40s. So um yeah, I thought that was pretty telling in terms of the

the conviction of the of the holder base. But yeah, I think you know going back to the original point, it's just it's just a flows issue. It it takes time to churn through the amount of money and and I I think if you look at the chart, it's it's it it certainly shows that same story, right? it it revs higher. Then there's just churn where you need new buyers plus the the buyback fund to to take out people taking profits and then and then next leg higher. And so, you know, without um a meaningful exploit or a decline in volumes or just a broader decline in the market, it's it's hard to see a scenario where this doesn't end up going higher.

Um yeah, like one of the the hindrances, right, is just thinking about the the return multiple you get from here. Um and obviously it's not nearly the same as it once was. So if you're depends on kind of what return you're chasing, but I think the size of it and it's I think it's a lot harder for large liquid funds to make high conviction bets right now um with size, right? That that being the the really big one. And so I think this is probably one of those that they can and and ultimately, you know, in order to have that conviction, you need you're either relying on narrative or or or fees, right? And and so I think it's harder to to to be confident in your narrative necessarily playing out and having the conviction there where it's just buying because of narrative,

whereas here, you know, you have that that bolstering of fees. And so, um, yeah, it seems like, uh, one of the one of the better bets to make. >> Yeah. One last point on hyperlquid. I guess like I think these treasury companies could be a really big deal for it because you know same argument that guy laid out with the the ENA treasury companies is like it's not easily accessible whereas the BTC and ETH like ETFs are accessible. The Salana ETF is going to be accessible but like you know hype even on centralized exchanges it's getting a bit better but it's not the easiest thing to buy. So the treasury companies could make a really big difference there especially if you can get out and tell the story properly. Um, yeah, I think that's the last thing I'd add in because like within crypto, like

there's a lot of big liquid funds have gotten in in like big size, but doesn't feel like there's a ton of like marginal buyers with that, you know, much size to to kind of take this on the next run up, but the treasury companies and having the public equity markets could definitely be a source of that demand. >> Yeah, it's like onchain Robin Hood or whatever narrative they want to they want to sell. It's like this is your way to play the beta of onchain activity. >> Yeah. >> Increasing over time. >> Yeah. I think the biggest headwind is just like regulatory like just what hap like is this is this legal? Especially once Hip 3 goes live. You can you you you can believe some people are going to spin up equity markets, right? All you

need is a million hype. Either own it yourself or have it delegated and you can spin up a market for any asset. You have your own order book. Uh I guess you get listed on the on the front end, too. I don't know how that works, but you can do your own front end front end. Um, people are going to do like FX markets, commodities markets, like equities markets, and then it gets kind of real, right? Like you're you're really crossing hairs there with with uh with some pretty ingrained regulations and and regulators. Um, and I don't know what that Yeah. I don't have any like if you told me a year ago that that we'd have this regulatory environment that we have now, I would never have believed it. So maybe there's a world where

hyperlid is uh is is is okay. I don't know. Uh, and you have to do KYC on top, but the protocol layer is left, which kind of ties into this latest Hester Pierce speech, the SEC speech. I don't know if you guys had a chance to read it, but it was insanely bullish. She really gets it. Uh she's like kind of the most cipher punk regulator I've ever seen. Um but it doesn't seem like you'll just be able to trade securities and commodities and stuff. No KYC on chain. Um I don't know. We'll we'll see. And then and if you can't then you always have like a limited time recap of the speech.

>> Um yeah, I mean the this Yeah, I can I can try. It was just she was basically highlighting like the importance of self-custody again. Um she was talking about how like regulators don't like it because they they they have these middlemen that they can that they can impose like regulations on but that they shouldn't we shouldn't retrofit the regulations around these intermediaries and that this intermediation is a feature not a bug. Um she was talking about privacy and like the bank secrecy act and and some of these other surveillance heavy rules that need to be overhauled. Um because you you should be able to move value around with the same privacy that you can for for

communications which you know basically uh in defense of privacy coins and and in general of of of crypto. Um like asking regulators not to just put in an intermediary just so they can regulate someone. Um, also protecting open source devs, like no one should be put in jail or have any fear of of of reprisals for for publishing open source code. Um, which again obviously super bullish and super relevant with the with the Roman Storm case. Um, and just a bunch of other a bunch of other stuff like everything she said was just so bullish.

Also, she's been pushing for this this idea that like IPOs need to be overhauled, like we have less and less IPOs over time and and uh like tokenization is a potential like solution for that. Um yeah, I think >> yeah, the the CIO of uh Bitwise put out a letter and he said, I'll close with this. I was caught off guard by the speech. I've studied and written about crypto non-stop for the pace for the past eight years. I've been long bullish about the future of crypto and I've said that all assets will eventually move over blockchain based rails. But after reading the speech, I'm realizing that I have to think bigger and move to a faster timeline.

If it wasn't priced in for me, I'm going to guess it wasn't priced in for others. Oh, okay. But that was about the the Paul Atkins SEC chair speech. That is that different than you're talking about Hester. >> Okay. Well, even better. >> Yeah. I mean, they're all like they're all saying really like bullish things. I'm curious how this gets implemented, but yeah, it's it's pretty insane the turnaround that that that we've kind of had in in regulatory approach to the space.

>> Yeah, it's been awesome. >> Yeah. Um and so we'll see. Maybe maybe there's a world where Hyperliquid uh finds a finds some kind of you know regulatory loophole here. I don't know. >> Yeah, there's a nonzero chance that like cuz Hyperliquid's like the clear onchain trading venue for you know crypto assets. So if that were to expand equities and commodities on chain that would be obviously massive. >> Yeah. I mean, I I think when HIP 3 comes live, it's gonna happen, right? I don't know.

I I I just there's just so much money to be made. So, like, anyone who proposes these markets and gets it passed can make 50% of of the trading fees on that. Um, and obviously, you have like 1 million hype at stake. So, if you [ __ ] something up or like act maliciously, then that can get slashed. Although, TBD how, but it just seems like all those markets will get will get added like which is >> Oh, yeah. No, they're they're definitely getting at it. It's just like what happens after >> regulatory wise or in terms of >> Yeah. Yeah. >> All of it. But yeah, they're they're definitely getting added. Like you're not going to unless like the team doesn't allow it for whatever reason, but doesn't seem like that's what they're going for.

>> Yeah. I mean, >> and you'll be able to like market make this stuff, right? You'll have like an HLP vault for like equities and stuff. It's going to be pretty wild. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> I mean, Hyperliquid's easily the thing I'm most bullish on outside of, you know, Bitcoin and it's reflected in my holdings. >> So, what are we thinking? Galaxy Hyperlquidina. >> Is that Is that the hive mind picks? That sounds pretty [ __ ] good to me. >> Hy pump. >> Yeah. No, no problem. Let's do those three. Quote it. That's our new portfolio. A third in each. Prepare.

not not financial advice. Um, yeah, but yeah, I think all those are looking looking pretty interesting here. Also, ju just a moment on this on these treasury companies. I was thinking I was actually reading some stuff from back in the day the other day and remembering like how every single uh bare market and and bull market for like five years, everyone was saying like institutions are coming. Like that was the line that you heard everyone institutions are coming, institutions are coming, you know, like uh and and I always had was like skeptical that institutions were coming and like kind of proven right over the years, but and then digital asset treasury companies come about and it it's literally like the wetest dream that any crypto person

could have in terms of how institutions come into the space. Like if it's one of those things that like you you just you couldn't write it, right? Like you you would never believe it if this is how institutions >> came into the space. They're they're literally just spinning up public vehicles to buy a dollar of your coins for $2, you know, like it's it it's it's kind of wild. >> Yeah. I think Yeah. Novagrats had this good interview with Stock Twits today and they asked about um like you know what's the regulatory environment and the girl gave an example like you know when you're at like a pool party and

just it takes like one person to jump in the pool to like get everyone to go in the pool and Novagrat's like I'd say the regulatory environment is the equivalent of someone took their bathing suit off and jumped in the pool >> that dude like [ __ ] dancing on the at the concert by himself. Everybody's laughing at him and then like 3 minutes later like the whole crowd just comes and joins him. It's like the >> So he's like it's fully on. He's like if we get the Clarity Act passed or like the market structure bill passed, he's like it is fully on. Like >> what do you guys think about um like IPOs with with like crypto companies like obviously circles was was an extraordinary success. Kraken is now surging in in all of these um secondary

secondary transactions pri prior to their IPO probably later this year. You have Gemini, Bullish. Uh couple other ones are rumored like Falcon X, right? Like seems like a lot of um the really established crypto companies that you know actually like have really good businesses, make tons of money are are now opting the to go the IPO route versus token routes. Um, do you think that's something that like persists or maybe accelerates and you start to see more companies explore that versus uh going the early early?

>> Well, yeah. So, basically could I guess, right? >> You want to go Yeah. Like end goal is both, but you kind of want to go the path of least resistance, which is driven by where there's the most liquidity, right? And so right now and realistically for a long time, it'll be in equity markets. Um, and these things are just like some of these are just designed to go public. These, you know, very regul regulated exchanges or it just makes sense for them to go public that way. It's it's it would be a bit of a nightmare to go the other way. Um, but at the same time, I we we will see a lot of these stocks on chain, right? And so if the end goal is to have them in both places, it just makes the most sense to

go this path. Um because it's also, you know, the IPO window isn't always open. You kind of need a couple of elements to align for that to happen. Uh regulatory market and broader market environment, just just appetite. Um and and so that looks like it's there and ideally it stays there for for the foreseeable future. You don't have like Alina Khan in there and others. So it seems like the the environment is ripe. Yeah, Kraken's probably going to be the next big one, right? They're they're raising their series C right now. I think they're doing 500 at 15. And so um with the idea to try and go public either later this year, but probably more

likely early next year. Um and you know, hopefully we don't see a April 2021 moment like we did with with Coinbase where that was a top. I I don't really think the environment is necessarily the same. Um but um I think if it tops it'll top for other reasons, not for for these not because these are going public. >> So no, it seems like uh it seems like a good time for it. It'll be interesting to see what goes public outside of these exchanges, right? Or or maybe even tra like the Falcon X is very uh like trady understandable businesses because ultimately that that's your buyer and it needs to be understood. And so, um, I'll be curious to see what else

trying to tries to go public outside of of these that are, you know, that have proxies outside of crypto and and are just, you know, the crypto equivalent of X, Y, and Z business. Um, and yeah, that I think will be the interesting part. >> Do you guys think Bass ever launches a token? >> Maybe if Inc., so like uh Kraken has and they do it. If that does well, I think that'll they'll just sit there and think we can have a lot of base on our balance sheet and the stock will probably get rewarded for it, so we might as well. Um, I don't know if they'll do it beforehand because if they haven't done it already, it' be strange for them to do it now.

>> Yeah, I'm in this I'm in the same boat on on that. I was curious if you guys thought any differently. I I initially thought like two years ago zero chance and then like maybe like a year ago I was like oh yeah they'll they'll definitely do it. Um and now I'm just like well L2s haven't really been rewarded that much, right? So it's it's also the last thing you want to do is force it and it flops. Yeah, I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze right now for for even for Coinbase. like when you look at comps on on L2s and like the the Coinbase market cap, it doesn't really seem like it would move the needle at this point. Um probably even versus their sequencer revenue, you know, which accrews to the

to the stock. Um yeah, but anyway guys, this was this was a good one. I think we can wrap here. Uh yeah, thanks everyone for tuning in again and we'll we'll see you see you all in two weeks. >> Yeah, >> thanks everyone. Thank you guys. [Music]