The Golden Bull Is Here | Roundup

Transcript

I think what you're going to see is just like the ETF flows for Bitcoin and then eth turn on and are really really robust and I think that's kind of what the market is sniffing out in the past 24 hours is like crypto is legal institutions are able to you know participate you there's no knuckle wrapping that comes with actually allocating to crypto in your portfolio all right everyone this is a message for my dgen listeners out there if you are getting scalped paying expensive fees to perex is I highly recommend that you check out index co-op's new leverage Suite now whenever it comes to Leverage do your own research this is not Financial advice don't bet more than you can lose all that good stuff but if you are going to lever up you might as well not pay an arm and a leg for it you can

get leverage on BTC and E with built-in liquidation Perfection uh now available on Base main net and arbitrum so click the link in the bottom of the show notes and head over and check them out today and you'll hear more from them later in the program hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Supra the vertically integrated L1 for super daps uh they have a very cool new product coming out called Supra container so head over to supra.com that's supra.com containers so if you're building on an L1 and it feels a little bit crowded or the complexity of L2 and l3s are getting you down just head over to Supra they'll get you sorted Thank Me Later hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Fuel Labs who's launching fuel ignition a new high performance ethereum L2 powered by the fuel VM now you're

going to be hearing all about ignition later in the program but for now what you need to know is they are launching phase two of their points program so click the link at the bottom of the show not not and head over start experimenting messing around on fuel today thank me later all right everyone welcome back to another episode of bell curve before we jump in quick disclaimer the views expressed by my co-host today are their personal views and they do not represent the views of any organization with which the co-hosts are associated with uh nothing in the episode is construed or relied upon as Financial technical tax legal or other advice you know the deal now let's jump into the episode all right everyone welcome back to another Roundup edition of bell curve you got Michaels wanted to Vance fellas

welcome to the Golden [Laughter] Bull game is on a bull yeah fans expecting are expecting a hat today where's the where's the black hat no no no no need to add insult to injury I think uh I think everyone's with the program now turns out the Democratic platform was just complete horseshit there were no list chain Republicans uh yeah I mean there's been enough takes on it but it's time to put some very Pro crypto policy into place and run it back to herbo all right so let's let's start to break this down because there's a

there's obviously the election and there's a broader societal discussion here but I I'd love to focus a lot on the the crypto side of things because I think it has pretty seismic implications for the industry especially on a you know one to fouryear time Horizon so just to give a really quick summary of what happened during the election is there were obviously a lot of there's a lot of chatter about the election going in people thought it was potentially split 50-50 not not you guys on this podcast uh so you know flowers to you for getting that absolutely right because it was a it was a complete sweep so not only not only did Trump win he won all seven swing states he also got the popular vote which is the first time a republican has done that since 2004 so two full decades uh there was also a a

sweep in the or there's a the Senate turned red um and the house I believe at the time of this recording is still up in the air but the Republicans are leading it's it's not it's not official in the house um there are I think 208 maybe 209 uh Republican seats that have been called and I think 196 Democratic seats that have been called uh the expectation is that the Republicans will also take the house uh based off of where a lot of these votes are coming in as you can imagine the the votes that are coming in are still in rural counties in rural districts um historically more Republican leaning and probably slower to collect but they're

at like most of them are at like 75 85% 95% vote um but it is expected that the Republicans will take the house as well turn turns out turns out as we talked about uh probably two months ago on this podcast that the Gallop poll actually was highly accurate in predicting where everything would land which is about a 4% uh popular vote swing and uh and that Trump would win there was a cool not the point of the story at all but I'm sure you guys probably heard about the French Trader on poly Market who made a bunch of money and first of all I don't know if you saw this but it looks like they're trying to ban poly Market in France now so that was their takeway this election but who

cares who cares let's go past politics I'm I'm over it okay cool uh well this is actually just a cool polling story what he he commissioned his own poll so he found that there was a lot of bias in terms of when you ask people who you were going to vote for but much less bias when you ask who do you think your neighbor is going to vote for and so he commissioned his own poll of who do you think your neighbor is gonna vote for and the results were overwhelmingly I just thought that was a cool that was interesting and then he put a lot of money to work so kind of an interesting betting story there all right a fork in it all right all right all right all right cool let's talk about let's talk about the impact that this could have on

cryptos and Industry here and there's where I want to broaden it out to past even just the election of Trump versus kamla but another thing that happened is the Super PAC Fair Shake actually was pretty successful in terms of electing Pro crypto senators and Congress people the big The Big Race that ended up tipping in favor of a crypto uh Pro crypto candidate was in Ohio where you had sherro Brown who is the head of the house Financial Services committee and he won or he got ousted by a a new a new Senator uh Bernie mourino I've told this to both of you guys this is a funny moment for me he was my next door neighbor growing up it's like the weirdest small world connection of all time I learned to swim in his pool growing up went to school with his kids um but yeah he won he he won so what do

you guys I'll just turn it over to you guys what do you think the the implications for cryptos and Industry are from this win very positive I think the the one comment that I saw um was a a White House uh staffer basically said something to the effect of um it's time for the Democrats to move past crypto it's clear that it's not going away and this is just a losing battle if we choose to fight it and I think that that sentiment shift is recognized universally across the board even Paul Graham came out I don't think that this is accurate but he said that crypto going against crypto was one of the the downfalls of the democratic platform this year um I think it's equivalent to saying that the ocean is filled up by rain yes there is water

that is put into the ocean when it rains but that's not the reason why that the Democrats actually you know didn't win this election it it's one of them but it's not the reason and I think broadly fairshake I mean they they put money to work in the right ways um you know hats off to them they they absolutely crushed it um the other thing that's notable about Fair Shake is that they've already raised I think $75 million for 20126 um and so they're not going away either this is going to be an always on platform uh promoting crypto and the the really cool thing I think is and and we talked about it on this podcast yes the the president um White House was was you know it's going to be an important uh um role for crypto going forward but the fact that the Senate flipped likely

means that Tim Scott will be the head of Senate Banking and what that implies as well and he's mentioned this before is that he actually wants to start a subcommittee within Senate banking for digital assets and being able to have we we thought it was a big moment when we had just even a floor vote in the House of Representatives for a crypto specific Bill uh with fit 21 in may we thought that that was you know the industry really you know having its coming out party um but imagine what will happen when we have a subcommittee uh just dedicated to digital assets and digital asset legislation um a very very very constructive uh moment for the industry I I think um my take is uh like what's going on in Group chats and policy stuff

uh on our end is people are suggesting Who the cftc head should be people are suggesting who the SEC chair should be and the industry is getting a lot of input as as with many traditional Finance players as well but I mean it's looking like it's going to be an overwhelmingly positive regulatory body as well as legislation um you know there's chatter about we get rid of Sab 121 which is actually a really shitty rule for anybody that tries to cuss crypto on their balance sheet so if you're a major Investment Bank you have to hold $1 of Cash for every dollar of crypto in order to actually custody it so there's a lot of you know just like it's going to make it a lot easier to to actually put crypto into these major institutions um

and there's also some accounting rules with how you hold it that are going to go away which is great um so you kind of have like the first day first week priorities done um the other stuff that looks like it's on the agenda is um uh the Bitcoin strategic Reserve like there's been a lot of chatter around that like we'll see when that you know is real um and then I think the ETFs is kind of the other side of it we've seen less movement on that like I still think it's going to be a long process for the xrps or the litecoins or the salonas of the world to get listed um and all of the appointments are really going to like you know he takes over January 20th and then there's this whole appointment uh process which probably takes till May

or you know Midsummer that's kind of when the other appointees in previous administration have come in and so like day one for this like new SEC new cftc is probably like June maybe May um and I I think what you're going to see is just like the ETF flows for Bitcoin and then eth turn on and are really really robust and I think that's kind of what the market is sniffing out in the past 24 hours is like crypto's legal institutions are able to you know participate you there's no um you know knuckle WRA in that comes with actually allocating to crypto in your portfolio what do you buy you probably got a bit of BTC already I think people are now buying eth and the next ETF I would assume probably end of 2025 maybe mid

2026 maybe even later than that like it's going to take a while um but there's really positive policy on the horizon and I think the last part is like all the wells notices all the cases that are outstanding with Unis swap with coinbase with I think Kraken too um those are probably going to be you know just forgotten about maybe you see some announcement about them settling or the court being settled the case being settled out of court but this is the next and biggest part is like defi is now legal defi has been illegal for the past I mean however long we've been doing it de facto illegal um but now that it's not like a lot of these teams are going to turn on fee switches they're going to do you know more creative more more risky things with

their tokens the aperture has widened significantly which is why all these defi tokens are rallying now and and just to be clear we're not we're not saying that defi is illegal and has been currently it's just that nobody has known based off of the fact that it's regulation by enforcement by a policy or via policy and I think that the fact that you can assume that the you know whacka mold game of did you get regulated did you get a Wells notice did you get sued like that that game goes away and that's frankly why we're seeing eth outperform right now because people are recognizing that all the applications primarily D5 but everything else that's being built on top of ethereum are actually going to continue and persist and not have to run the the regulatory wacka mall game of did you

get caught up in that or did you not because there's just going to be more clarity and eventually there will be a a market structure bill that defines all of this stuff but until then and it will probably take a while until then you're going to have sort of A Safe Harbor until we figure that part out the other kind of takes that I I heard that are interesting um is and and kind of counterintuitive in a way but there are given the fact that it looks like it's going to be a red sweep it's possible that crypto as a new legislative initiative uh gets deprioritized for a while um given that they will probably want to take on larger things like immigration tax reform uh government

spending kind of the things that would be higher leverage opportunities just given the way that the White House and Congress are are looking like they'll be situated and so it's possible that we kind of have this like Safe Harbor nothing really happens for a while and and I think that that's actually a good thing for crypto because it gives us more time to develop more time to reshore a lot of these protocols I've heard from you know anat came out and said that what about breakpoint USA next year um you know like people are getting excited TI in from alivium is like uh I didn't think that I'd be moving back to the States but now I'm considering it like there's kind of a renewed excitement around entrepreneurship in the US which I think is fundamental and it will be really exciting to see that

but I I also would just say to everybody out there don't hold your breath on legislation it will happen but it may take a while especially given you know the relative priorities of the of this uh this Administration Brooklyn uh permissionless that's what I that's what I hear as well yeah it's dude we this we've always thought the US is the market to win and yeah it was a little bit of a bet for sure but that's like that's where all of our conferences are basically laid out is in the US and that's the thing to me like Michael completely hear you and agree that it's going to take a little a little longer than everyone would ultimately like to pass through like the fit Bill and stuff like that um in the meantime I think the the most impactful thing here is that people aren't worried about getting

arrested or sued or regulated by enforcement anymore and I think what you're going to see is an enormous amount of people flood back to the US even if you were wind the clock back and you remember just what the conference scene in the US looked like in 2021 and 2022 versus 2024 night and day difference and I think that's about to happen in a huge way so yeah Shameless uh shill here but we got Das in March and permissionless Brooklyn baby um I mean I love it teaming up um I I think the other thing that I think about is like uh we probably not surprising but we get asked for our price targets a lot really which which which we are not making on this podcast no no I mean but like this

is still Financial advice right like this is yeah this this podcast has turned into Financial advice um no it has but like I think it's question oh my God I mean look like all the regulatory stuff has hit us hard as harder harder than than the projects and like I'm personally breathing a sigh of relief now that you know we're not going to be hopefully subject to these surveillance sweeps and um yeah I mean there's a lot of stuff that happens but like on the price Target side like it's always been tough where the whole year it's like well in the fullness of time and I would Define that in like you know our lifetime like yeah I do think Bitcoin will go to a million um but like you

know if it's Calo or if it's Trump like there there's two different timelines and I think like the the timeline leap hypothesis of like it's not a super cycle but like we're now just on a fundamentally different trajectory is probably to some extent and that's how I personally think about it um it's just you wake up and it's just a a probably 3 or 4X more bullish environment on a 3 or 4X more compressed timeline whereas you know if I thought Bitcoin was going to hit a million and you know our lifetimes under you know comma and then we'd get through that and we'd figure out what's next now it's a lot different and I think there's a lot of people who are underinvested in crypto and the pressure to chase the market is going to be immense especially

from here until year end we've talked about you know what's the most bullish time of the year and like what are what are my personal best crypto memories it's always when I'm like hold up in some cold location in the middle of winter all the summer ones are terrible you know summer summer is usually like you know net worth 10 X's then it's like you rent a house in some [ __ ] like Malibu or something and then you're sitting in this Malibu house being like well my net worth just cut got cut in half again so I guess this isn't quite as great as I thought it was um but I I don't think that's going to happen again I think it's going to be a very bullish year end people are going to have to chase and I think the other thing is

like the bull the bare Market was the exact right time Horizon for people to capitulate on a lot of their tokens like we've heard some big funds capitulated on Soul you know near the bottom I think you kind of saw that happen with eth as well you know this summer rumors about you know a large fund that got a margin call and had to sell eth or something like it um and now people are kind of reset and and I think a lot of them are still underexposed somehow um the other thing I'd say is everybody um I don't know we we were watching the election results live and it's like well people were like why isn't Bitcoin at 100K and it's like guys you got to understand if

we're talking about money that's already like on a platform ready to go ready to buy Bitcoin just because the election results come in like that's that's like drops in the bucket in comparison to what we're really talking about which ultimately will be flows of new money coming into the space and that new money is going to take weeks to months to happen and so the fact that you know Bitcoin isn't already at 80k or 85 or 100K I think it's ultimately a good thing because people are still re-evaluate evaluating where their cash positions are they have to move money around they're going to start buying the ETFs like this is going to be an end of the year time frame as to where you see you know all these assets end up and so the longer it takes to get there I think the better from a long-term perspective

um and you don't want the flash in the pan you know burning too hot perspective yeah we're not we're not playing for cousin Timmy's you know binance money it's like there's much larger forces at play now don't you see this well it's also Bitcoin is much l i mean we got an all-time high during the election it you know be a little reasonable here in terms of people's expectations and it is so much larger than it used to be I but I agree with you and I this is what I'm also very excited for is I know we've talked about it on this pod before it's been a great last 12 months or whatever for Price action but it doesn't feel like there's a lot of new money or new people coming into the space and my hope would be that that changes um and I don't know you're

starting to see positive signs all over the place like the defi stuff I can't tell this is just cope and this is how I want it to work but I feel like it kind of is actually working you had the first like real sizable bid for defi coins in as about as long as I can remember and you you also had um Athena winter MW put out a proposal to turn on the Athena fee switch so you got some of those staking emissions go to staked uh Ena holders first of all by the way game theory wise it's a great move for Athena um really smart if everyone's gonna do it just lead the pack really smart um but yeah I I would hope I don't know I like the meme coins are fun uh they're great I own some of them but I would

love it if we could refocus capital and attention onto real businesses um as chezy as that sounds like it's kind of what we're doing here so yeah I would I haven't I haven't been tracking the meme coins but like the top performers on coin gecko are basically the defi leaders at least the ones with like a real you know 500 million plus market cap I think it's like the expectation versus reality expectation was like Donald Trump wins it's like a meme coin Bach and all no rules you know no parents you know ice cream for dinner [ __ ] it um and I think the reality is like well those probably persisted in either Administration but the thing that really would have gotten hurt by Cala is Defi

and so it's just like kind of natural to see this starting to ramp which is great Michael you gotta you gotta mute while you're on the computer bro sorry you're good dude you're good um um yeah I I I completely agree with that um and I don't know defi is a lot of us probably have a little bit of a soft spot for defi if you live through defi summer and still to this day I think it's the thing that there's a lot of far-off use cases that people are really excited about but it's definitely the most material real thing that works today with tangible benefits and so yeah I mean who wouldn't be happy to see that working and getting rewarded and yeah it would be cool if you could return some

Capital to token holders like this is all ridiculously positive and this all happened like you know we're speaking 36 hours out from when we got the results here so yeah I feel and and just to just to cap it off like because I've been talking to you know I was talking to a mutual uh friend of ours actually and he's just like you know us-based defi founder and he was like damn it I didn't realize how stressed I was before all of this um and I feel him I know you guys feel Vance I saw your Tweet about the stress of running the fund Yano and I have felt that too it's yeah this is why it feels like a weight off you know um it's kind of like why were we ever punished so hard what what was the anti crypto Army me that that's like the most

there there were some things that transpired that were not great um I think we were punished disproportionately for them but like the SEC in the US can take away your ability to manage money overnight like they are you you they are your regulator you submit to them you get examined by them if you [ __ ] up they can and it's up to them right it's like there's this own internal court that they have they can just clip your wings and be like that framework thing you used to do n that's over so that is as tight of a line as you can possibly walk D5 Founders I feel like they may have had it somewhat easier in the sense that they don't have a direct regulator but probably somewhat harder in the sense

that like the things that they can get charged for were so much broader than what the fund managers were engaging in that like there's more existential risk of like good news you're moving to Mexico and we know teams that have moved to Mexico Mexico City and are now moving back like we're literally onshoring these jobs in real time and you know there's not like we're not building cars here it's not like we're building you know a thousand new jobs in the US but it's just great to see that like these high income jobs that are frankly more geographically distributed than what Silicon Valley is used to are coming back and I think SF is a huge beneficiary our offices in SF that where we're based uh New York is probably a beneficiary but I wouldn't be surprised

to see places like Austin also pop up yeah totally also depends the the SF you guys would have a better view than me being on the ground but I feel like SF is going through like the AI stuff is really benefiting San Francisco again and far out but you know I know a lot of people are very excited about this intersection of AI and crypto who knows maybe there's something substantial there on sometime Horizon hey everyone this episode is brought to you by index Co-op and their new product The Leverage Suite which I highly recommend that you check out click the link in the bottom of the show notes now disclaimer whenever it comes to leverage do your own research this is not Financial advice all that good stuff don't bet more than you can lose but if you are going to lever up you might as well not

pay an arm and a leg and save a ton of money and use index cops leverage sweep so the way that they actually achieve these savings is pretty cool they Leverage The Power of money Legos defi uh in this case Unis Swap and a so the cost of carry for this trade is actually based on the fun rate of a as opposed to per Dees which tend to be much more variable and higher overall additionally per Dees will also charge you usually based on the entire uh open interest so the leverage exposure that you have as opposed to just the amount of money that you put in which is what index Co-op is doing here and the result of what you get is just an erc20 which gives you something like 2x e so you want to lever up and you want to save money doing it I

highly recommend that you go check out the index Co-op leverage Suite very very cool thank you very much index Co-op for making this episode possible hey everyone this episode is brought to you by Supra the new blazing fast vertically integrated L1 which helps you scale your D if you are a builder you're probably dealing with some combination of cost complexity and fragmentation of existing Solutions so if you're building over an eel 2 land everything's feeling a little bit fragmented at the moment and if you're building in salana everything is fast and on one layer but maybe you're limited in terms of what you can do with your ab space so Supra is rolling out a new product called Supra containers you can head over to Supras s.com containers um to learn more they offer dedicated customizable app spaces

running on Supra 500,000 TPS layer 1 blockchain that gives you complete control over gas tokens and fees so some cool things you can do you get the freedom to you can use your own token create local fee markets or even go gas lless whatever you want so this product isn't live yet but because you're a faithful listener of bell curve you get notified first so head over to supra.com Containers thank me later everyone this episode is brought to you by Fuel Labs who's unveiling their new high performance ethereum L2 fuel ignition many of you know fuel as the launcher of the first optimistic stage two rollup on ethereum with fuel V1 and now they're launching ignition to address some of the creeping centralization concerns around some uh L2 architectures today

and if you like nting out about the tech there's a lot of reasons to get excited about ignition including how they solve State sustainability and perform an execution they have this utxo asset Centric architecture that's very very cool but there's a lot of other reasons to love it super easy to use you can either use a fuette wallet or your existing ethereum or salana based wallet like Phantom or metamask or whatever it is there are cool apps that you can experiment with and again like I said at the top of the program they're launching phase two of their points program so click the link at the bottom of the show notes head over start having fun on fuel ignition today just tell them that I sent you all right one thing I don't want to bring it back to politics but I did I want to get your guys take on the

poly Market stuff so I I was actually watching this I was in Montana uh and I was sitting there watching all of this stuff with my parents and you know without getting into their political takes like they you know we're slightly less than excited to see the orange man win and I you know so we're watching this election and and and we've got like MSNBC on in the background but I'm like glued to polym Market uh Twitter and Bitcoin and I'm just watching this and at one point you know all the swing States just flipped like almost at the same time and they went limit up his odds went from uh 60% 60 some per to 85% and I saw Bitcoin ripping I was like I was telling my parents I think he I think he kind of got it you know it seems like it's on Lock and it was a

totally it was like a totally different Universe I was watching a completely different election happened on TV and it was just interesting to see the the information bubbles were so different um and I yeah I I would just be curious what your guys take was on basically the two different elections that happened that night poly Market is one of the big Winners alongside crypto uh over the last 48 hours I I think you know one one of the concepts that I use to describe polym Market everybody that I talk to who frankly probably in these situations leans left uh normally looks at Poly Mark and says oh it's just a bunch of international people they don't even understand our markets they don't like

they don't get it and what people don't understand is okay a people have vpns I'm sure there are us people who are making bets on on us elections surprise uh but B the the construct that poly Market is based around is what's called keynes's Keynesian beauty contest and what this means is you're not betting money based off of who you think will win you're betting money based off of who who you want to win you're based off you're you're betting money based off of who you think other people will vote for and that construct is similar to the French national who made those bets you know switching the question around from who do you think you want to win or who do you think should win to who do you

think your neighbor will choose to V to win is a fund and putting money behind it is a fundamentally different construct from a market structure perspective that I don't think people fully quite get yet and you know anybody who's been in crypto markets or markets in general understands this I heard people on the compound podcast being like well I don't even know if it's a real Market it's not a there's no order book there's no like it's like well yes there is there's market makers actually Sig is one of the market makers behind it apparently so there there is a a large amount of financial infrastructure Behind These platforms but what you what you change with you know K's beauty contest and the in the history there just a a quick anecdote is in London I think in the 20s kan's uh did ran this

experiment and said um you know listed one through or 10 photos of women and and basically said you know which women do you think is most attractive um and and they got people's public opinion on that and then they switched it and they said who do you think other people would think is the most attractive person and that flip changed the Dynamics uh completely and and I think that that construct is just a fundamentally different way of looking at markets and Market structure where you can ask binary questions and get to to Market resolution pretty clearly and the fact that it's liquid enough means that it happens in real time and it happens faster than you're going to see you know pulling data or you're going to see voting data come in um so I I think if

you if we were to take this model and apply it at similar scale to other type situations people have talked about sports people have talked about you know movies and and music and award shows like there are definitely a lot of interesting submarkets that I think you can apply this concept to probably not with the same energy and fervor that you saw with you know the 2024 us election but I I do think that there's going to be a lot of uh use cases for poly market and for binary options going forward that are going to hit you know consumer appeal um especially now that there's so much money on the platform and so much attention on it you got Shane on CNBC this morning you know talking about po market and and Joe's like Joe's pretty excited about it I mean people are GNA

get excited about this I I I am and optimistic that poly Market will have you know a a real resounding success going forward I think well I so I caught Shane went on Shane the founder of poly Market went on all in that night and I didn't watch they recorded for like four hours or something I didn't watch it but all but I I wanted to see what his response was around because there's been a lot of I actually I was in Kansas City visiting a friend about a week ago and I saw some of uh like our mutual friends parents um and they were they were describing and I just kind of sat there and listened uh how poly Market was manipulated and there were whales that were pushing around the election and trying to interfere with the election I just kind of registered then like that's that's

interesting that that's what people think and shanee addressed that on this podcast and you know his perspective was one I feel like that that never really just passed the sniff test with me in general I think there's better ways to spend that money I it just never passed the sniff test that it made sense to me to do but the other thing is you know poly Market isn't the house right they have there's there's another side so when someone bets $30 million or whatever this guy bet someone else is taking the other side of that trade so it's I don't know I just uh it just I mean one one other way to think about it is these are all just signals and let's go back and look at the ticker tape of all of these you know an Seltzer in in Iowa said that Trump

was going to lose Iowa by three or 4 percent she was off by 15 or 16% let's talk about you know Market manipulation in terms of the pollsters and what they put out and whether or not you know the the accuracy that they you know stick their name and their brand behind was not something that wasn't Market manipulation as well and and to your point when there's a financial incentive involved I think that there's far less manipulation because you're talking about losing value significant amounts of value if you get it wrong and and I think that once again it's like it's not something you can compare and contrast to polls these are totally different signals these are totally different you know outcomes but with financial incentives involved it's a much stronger

signal in my opinion I would agree with that and I think there's a I don't know it's tough to not like blockworks is a media company I I have a lot of sympathy for media and some of the criticism that it gets like first of all even like calling elections right like they have to use some very specific verbiage otherwise they'll get sued like people are making fun of them for saying too close to call it's like they don't have any they they have to do that right and it is different in between polym Market is a it's a betting market-based mechanism versus Media actually has to wait to call the state until um until it basically can't go the other way right like there's just a higher uh hurdle rate to getting it right for them but it's hard to not be pretty critical of both the coverage

leading up and how wrong they they got this whole thing and so I don't know I think poly market ends up or prediction markets or something ends up being I I don't know if it eats or replaces the media but it definitely feels like a permanent data point that people are going to use to counterbalance some of the media and in a sense it's really objective right like it it's just markets um people so I mean not not to [ __ ] on mainstream media but to [ __ ] on mainstream media they completely miss this I mean look at look at the CVS stuff look at you know all the pollsters and everybody who is behind them it you know supposedly that uh all all the polling companies have changed their algorithm changed their methodology but

they still miss completely you know three times in a row now and I think I tweeted this yesterday but I think mainstream media has to take a real long hard look in the mirror and kind of re-evaluate their priorities if they want to stay relevant yeah I would agree with that and there there needs to be a lot of self-reflection well I don't want to zoom out too much on the politics but yeah I think self-reflection after something like this where there was all right I'm calling it no more talking about this we're done you guys are just literally beating a dead horse that's like already yeah I know I yeah you're you're definitely right okay um okay all right here's a guys yeah yeah we're good yeah yeah we're good all right cool okay let me let me ask you though on the on

the PO so here's a uh I saw someone tweet this let me pull it up that something like 89% of people that bet on poly Market ended up losing money I'll Paul the Tweet here which is I I don't know if that's by p&l or by user but I mean it's better than meme coins it is better than mem coins and it actually roughly tracks if you look at what's the uh European version of Robin Hood eoro they have to disclaim the percentage of traders that trade options that lose money and it's same neighborhood it's I think it's 86% or something like that so um I would I would be curious where do you guys see here I'm going to pull up blockworks as a dashboard on this um their volumes have obviously been doing extremely well everything is way up and to the right it looks like a parabola um

do you guys have any thoughts on what these numbers look like I don't know a month from today because some percentage here we break it out by the percentage of uh trading that's election related so it's like it's 65% um I would say also that some of this other non-election related markets they're the election stuff is a a loss leader it's what gets people to the site and then they bet on other stuff but I would just be curious because poly Market had an unbelievable week um I am curious like the criticism has always been how many how much staying power does this have post election do you guys have any thoughts on you know uh continued relevancy is this the type of thing that becomes

super relevant around the election yeah I don't know any any thoughts on polymark it depends on on like I think poly market and pump. fun have basically the same Insight that like markets are media um and you see that with what pump. fun has shipped which is like live streaming you know you can upload a video into a meme coin like they're trying to basically like force that convergence uh poly Market has kind of like more of a Mechanical Turk operation of like what do people want to bet on set up the market get the liquidity get people interested tweet it out like there's going to be a lot less veloc velocity um for poly market and so I think like what comes next for poly Market I'm just like on the site on the side it's like still some like election

hang over stuff but I think you know one of the apps that I've been using is called adjacent news um and it's pretty interesting it's basically like news scored with poly market and other prediction Market aggregators um and that would be like how you get that to higher velocity I think what pump fund benefits from is like you have this kind of like whale you know maybe call it a PA maybe call whatever but like there's only a few people that are responsible for most of these meme coins um for poly Market I don't know if you still have that like power user like is Theo gonna start betting on you know what the Canadian election is or like if this headline is accurate like it's like I see that as much less likely and you know you've seen the PO Market charts

from 2020 go down and kind of stay dormant until this election cycle I would expect some of that but they've got a lot more Capital they've got Shane you know very smart on the product side and you'll probably see them get regulated I don't know if that helps or hurts them but like it's them and it's like it's no longer just them it's them and Ki um and Ki is pretty formidable and their CEO is pretty good too yeah I um it'll be interesting to see where Where It ultimately ends up going I I don't have any super strong opinions about it myself I just feel like it's cool to see it was very cool to see poly Market on the world stage in the way that it was um just felt like a

win overall for crypto and it felt like something that penetrated mainstream awareness in a way that few apps outside of coinbase and binance and like FTX at one point um penetrated so just kind of a dub for the industry I would say um let me ask you guys this little off topic but what do you guys think of futari so this was something I was kind of thinking to myself when I was watching like Hey Okay poly Market did pretty well here on the prediction Market side I agree I think there's an element of real staying power when it comes to markets being a complement to more uh subjective media and then I sort of said well futar is kind of based on the same things right

it's like market-based but it's decision outcomes for policy or theoretically in companies there are a couple of salana protocols I believe drift which uh and I think jeto actually um is instead of they've got a grants program that's running and instead of having an administrator they're using futarchy for people bet on who should get funded Etc so I don't know it it kind of made me think about it and I was not super positive on futari before but just going at it and like maybe I should give this a second look I don't know have you guys thought too much about this at all I mean this is one of the original ideas of like crypto governance posted by vitalic way back in the day um I I think there's certainly something to it I I do think it's like a little

bit experimental and and kind of like you know when people were focused on we should all start Dows instead of like what do these Dows do so I think like the I think it's I think we're in low hanging fruit season basically like there's so much lwh hanging food in crypto that we can just pick over and make it better I think we'll get to Future AR in time and it's like the thing that separates crypto from all the industries at the end of the day is the Cyber Punk ethos is the willingness to like push the boundaries of like how do you govern things how do you build something that's not a company that's a distributed organization and like we should never lose sight of those ideals or those ideas um but the thing about where we are right now is there's like a lot of blocking and tackling work

to do and it's always kind of the question of like can you get the velocity right pump fun got the velocity dead on [ __ ] tons of meme coins 2% on each run it through you're making $200 $300 million a year I would say you know a lot of the Dow experiments got it wrong because the velocity wasn't there there weren't that many people who wanted to start Dows the refresh rate of dead ones to new ones was really low it didn't really take off futur Archy may be an idea where you really only have one good shot at it and you need to do it at scale with something that is revenue generating and can be governed in a more mechanistic way um but like Dow governance and how it all works is going to be one of the major focuses of you know what these organizations look

like going forward like we still don't have Clarity on whether a dow is legal or not like we think it's legal we take that position the government sometimes takes the opposite position you have like ID da where they're making judgments in the absence of anybody even showing up to the court all these things are now on the table and it's going to take a long long time for these to be sorted out and I I agree with Michael I don't think anything's coming down the pike imminently they're going to take their time they're going to stop regulating by enforcement and then they're going to take a major swing at a canonical bill for the entire industry it's wild we have the house we have the Senate we have the president it's like this is most bullish possible setup you could have asked for the only thing I add to that is I

mean you you could also look back at history and the development of the internet and the application categories that were you know talked about in the 90s people tried social networks in like the the mid90s people tried social networks in the late 90s but it took until digital cameras were actually viable until you had you know bandwidth capabilities to have hundreds of photos and not just your Myspace eight photos um profile picks like there are kind of infrastructure level or in this case potentially regulatory changes that need to happen but I think we've even going back to like 2020 2021 it was like tokens as a new capital asset a new construct for incentivization but also Dows as a new governance framework and a

new conract for organizations and I think that we kind of understand like all of the things that are happening in in the future of crypto it's just a question of when they become viable and you know changes like this are are definitely going to speed up that process in terms of the timelines that we can expect Dows to become universally recognized as an organizational construct but it will take you know regulatory changes and it will take understanding about you know how does the how do money move how does money move through these Dows like how are people like what are the the rules and regulations around you know how people can be incentivized to work at Dows but I think we all know that Dows you know will be up there eventually as as a form of organization similar to companies and you could be an individual

developer contributing to a dow and getting paid and like that's your job and that's something that's totally fine I think frankly things like uber and uh and Lyft are another example that are pushing people in this direction where your job doesn't have to necessarily be a W2 salari job where you're showing up every day and you work for a company and that's that's all you do it can be something where you have a a less regular Cadence and and you know a more you know contribute as you go type model and potentially working for multiple at the same time um and I I think the future of work will revolve a lot more around this it it may just take you know five six seven years where we thought it would happen you know this year next year yeah on that point it's something

that I've always liked about DS are kind of squinted at them and found they made sense which is there's a couple of different trends when it comes to just how people do work which is one Workforce is way more Global and way more mobile than it used to be and people are much more okay with part-time jobs like the relationship between employer employee is much more transactional than it used to be in the 50s when you know you work for the same company for 40 years and you got your go watch and you retired that that is kind of dead and I think Dows are very well suited to to take up the mantle there and so work is a more fluid relationship the one other thing on the regulatory front that I would at least be excited for and it could be an unlock

for Dow sourcing better decision-making and labor is there's a very harmful precedent set by Uki da um where there's no concept of limited liability in between a DA and its delegates for instance and so that prevents as I'm sure you guys know often time a um delegates who don't want that headache or liability but B there are a lot of investors who probably have opinions or would be more active in governance and you're precluded because you don't want to get sued if you have a huge percentage of stake in the protocol and you know I'm just going to keep pointing out over the next couple of weeks about there are these weird sort of invisible unless you're unless you have reason to have knowledge about it these weird uh like pieces of red tape that are just preventing really easy wins and so you

know I know right now it's kind of popular to say Dows don't make sense or they're broken or they don't work but I think with the with a better regulatory environment some stuff that hasn't been working could work much better so exactly reason to be excited um honestly I didn't really have any other big stories this week I feel like all the oxygen was focused on the election everyone's tired from a big few nights I think everyone one is no one's even like euphoric it's just like man yeah he did it I know I know dude it's like light at the end of the tunnel and I wonder I'm going to Devcon I'm flying out tomorrow so I'll see what the Vibes are I'm sure they'll be long flight dude it's yeah it's like the my first leg is 19 hours

or something insane yeah it's gonna be brutal yeah I think I'm flying to Hong Kong and then doing like a two-hour jump uh but anyway so wish your boy luck um yeah best of luck out there and congratulations to everyone and if you are sad well better luck next time all right fell we can end it there appreciate you both all right peace