The Fed is frozen: Dan Tapiero on tariffs, liquidity and Bitcoin

Transcript

[Music] GM, good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show. Milk Road Macro. Welcome to Milk Road Macro, everybody. The daily crypto show that hits you like a pool exit into full sun. Instant clarity. Let's go. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Thursday, May the 8th, and markets are ripping this morning. Why? Trump has announced a US UK trade deal. We're going to talk about that. The Fed is not moving, but markets are doing all right. Are the Fed playing with fire? What's going on in the US economy? What's the data showing us? And where do we think the Fed might go next? China is cutting rates. Where's the signal amongst all this noise? Is the question that I know you're all asking. And today we are

joined by one of the best in the space, Dan Tapiro, founder, CEO, CIO, managing partner at 10T and many other funds that he manages. I can't even keep track of how many funds Dan has these days. He's invested in over 20 crypto companies, deployed over 1.5 billion, and he's one of the only growth stage investors in the crypto and blockchain space. He's also a renowned macro investor. Before we jump in, we are looking to hire a podcast host right now for this exact show. So, if you want to host Milk Road Macro and join our team, hit the link in the show notes. Or if you know somebody that you think would be a great podcast host to join our team, let us know.

Also, if you want more macro content, hit the link in the show notes to sign up for our weight list to join our upcoming newsletter. Today's episode is brought to you by Letin. Get cash without selling your Bitcoin. It's also brought to you by Coin Shift, powering top crypto treasuries with their yield bearing stable coin, CSUSDL. Without further ado, Dan, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. Glad to be here. Uh, I just, uh, I just posted it on Twitter, so hopefully that works. Sometimes, for some reason, X, there's this delay now in things that when you post, so hopefully the the delay doesn't last very long. Um, there's there's no room for delay in

this world, Dan. I know. You know, everything must be immediate. It must be. I'll check X just to make sure that it went through there, and that's what we wanted. I mean, as as long as you're here and your hair is looking nice, we're all happy. It's all about the hair again, huh? It's all about I always say my wife married me. Well, she always says for my hair and for my shoulders and, you know, everything else, you know, whatever. Okay. That's what happens when you're married. 26 years. I'll get I'll get your wife on the show to get the real reason that she married you. Uh, that's what she'll say.

That's what she'll say. Let's start with I want to set up a little scenario for you, Dan. You and I always have some fun when you come on the show. So, let's say you've got a friend who had a went into a coma around January 1st, start of the year. So, they've been out. They've been in a coma. They just woke up from coma. They've missed Trump's first 100 days in office. They've missed everything that's happened so far this year. First thing when they wake up, their wife goes in, tells them all. How long have they been in a coma? Since the start of the year. Since the start of the year. Okay. Okay.

Not since uh November 1. No, not since November one. Okay. All right. Okay. Since the start of the year. Since the start of the year. So, they know that they know that Trump won, but they don't He hasn't been inaugurated yet. Nothing's happened. Markets are are ending the year strong. Their wife comes in, gives them all the headline news. Tariffs. Uh, you can't believe this. Trump did this. Blah blah blah. Then you walk in, they open their portfolio, and they ask, "Who the hell's that? What's What's going on?" Yeah. Who? No, you're the guy. What's that guy doing in my room here? Who's that guy with big shoulders and gray hair? Uh, so you walk in and they ask Did you say Gray? Great.

Great. Great. You walk in and they say, "What's going on in macro and markets?" What what are you telling them amongst you don't you're not trying to tell them all the noise. What are you telling them to get them upset? Bitcoin's 100,000. Yeah. Nothing happened. Bitcoin 100,000. Uh so you could argue, okay, is that surprising or not? But you know, we were headed there for quite some time. I, you know, I think look, the summer of 23 when Larry Frink changed his mind about Bitcoin and said Black Rockck was going

to come with an ETF, that was essentially the end of the bare phase. I mean, it really bottomed after FTX in Q4. But and then, you know, the release of all those ETFs in January of 24 and the Trump administration changed. I keep saying that that the Trump change of view and approach to our space is the second most important event in the you know 15 16 year life of Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, blockchain, web 3, digital assets, whatever you want to call it. And that's because we've never had a government be supportive uh in the way the US is. And not only that, it's that the US is the most important

wealthiest uh country in the world. And you know, they have a mission now as stated to become the world's leading cryptocurrency blockchain hub. I mean, this is mindboggling. This is part of their platform. uh nine months ago, companies in the space, all sorts of projects were belleaguered, literally belleaguered, you know, being attacked by the SEC, being sued for this thing or that thing, and then all of a sudden, new administration and those suits have been dropped. I mean, it's pretty incredible.

Um, it's the most, you know, dramatic 180°ree change in a view that I can think of. um certainly in my lifetime but I mean in in the financial markets and what's happened is that the credibility the the trust that sometimes is lacking in our space you know you have characters like FTX you know doing damage but the trust that you know that we still need to regain in the space I think that the Trump's move and their platform has brought a lot of that trust you know, back. I I would say I mean, I don't I'm not in love with the whole memecoin thing that he did. understand

it and I think I think it makes some sense maybe to discuss at a different time but the reality is that you know Bitcoin at 100,000 with these positive developments if the short interest rate which is 4% or at two for instance I think Bitcoin would probably be at 200,000 the economy is slowing you asked me about like the US economy is slowing Inflation is not a concern. I'm not sure what Jay Powell is doing. I think Trump's view and Besson's view was right. Besson said, "Hey, the two-year at 379, the fund rates at four and a quarter." He

said, "The two-year is telling the Fed what to do." And that's exactly right. I think that the data is slowing down enough that we're going to have an interest rate drop down hopefully below three on on the Fed funds. The two-year will lead it there. But look, we've also just had a 10% drop in the dollar against the euro, and that's helpful. I think the dollar is probably entering a bare phase. I was wrong on the dollar earlier in the year and last year. I thought it was going to be very strong. But the reason I've changed my view is because the fiscal policy that they're taking on, okay, the the Doge, not just eliminating whole government uh offices, but reducing the spending in those

government offices plus, you know, the tariff situation, which acts as a fiscal tightening that needs to be offset by some sort of monetary offset to keep things in balance. of the economy doesn't have too aggressive a pullback in liquidity in demand side drivers. Right? So it's like fiscal policy has been contributing to demand and now it's not and I think monetary policy needs to offset that and the dollar is already sensing that and that's why it's weakened. I think I last thing say ideally in a perfect world you know Bessant and Trump or whoever should have gone down to Jay Powell and said hey

guys we're going to be undertaking the greatest fiscal tightening of the last 50 years give us some slack on the monetary side like hey let's work together on this that would have been and maybe they did do that I I don't know but Powell for whatever reason is really holding back here and I think he's you the next few months the data will just you know confirm that he needs to move and that'll you know that'll help um that'll help Bitcoin and the whole digital asset ecosystem ETH Salana the whole world sort of take off again because there is a part of our world that is driven by this liquidity from the old world right regardless of the

good fundamentals that are relating to Bitcoin regardless of the good fundamentals relating to some of the other projects and you know the activity in the space, the growth of DeFi, stable coins, even NFTTS might be coming back a little bit here. So, I think you just have a little bit of liquidity from the old world come in. You have Bitcoin head up to my target has been 180 for a long time. Like the last, you know, since the the bottom really that was sort of my target, but most guys on X are telling me that I'm way too conservative. So, what can I tell you?

the next few months you talked about, okay, especially if if Powell doesn't do anything, the data is going to get worse. There's a lot of people that are still saying, you know, we're going to get a recession. I think this is what confuses people is prices are going up, yet everyone's like, hey, we're about to go into a recession. As you said, growth is slowing. And I'm just curious, prices of what is it are going up? Like Bitcoin and and stocks, like everything is green today pretty much. And so it's it's I think it's confusing for people. But I'm just curious like do you think we just we priced in this this potential get mechanisms? I mean that's the thing people have a hard time understanding when the VIX was at what did it get get to 50 60. Yeah. That priced an extreme moment of fear and I would say you know

acted as the sign the signal to the authorities that okay things are too tight. What happened? two-year goes to 379, the dollar drops 10%. You know, the markets themselves act as self-regulating mechanisms. They're self-correcting. So, I think that that that action that the the market action started to amilarate the the fiscal tightening and that's why Bitcoin also started to improve because that was the sign as as you remember Powell kind of softened a little bit. Trump softened a little bit on the tariffs and China. You know, the markets told them, "Okay, guys, you went

a little too far too quick." Now, I know Paul Tudtor Jones came out yesterday and said, "Oh, the markets are going to go back down because fiscal policy is too tight and monetary policy, he's sure PAL's not going to ease." Well, I you know, Paul is one of the two or three greatest macro traders of all time, so it's hard to take a view against him, but I don't see that happening. I think that was it. And may maybe we have a retest. Maybe something happened, but I think pretty much that was the extreme.

The markets priced it in, right? So do you think that bad news moving forward is actually good news for markets because that's just more strength for Powell to actually finally pivot or what do you think we're probably going to get more bad news in terms of the economy over the next let's say month or two right so I think bad news to a degree is good I think the unemployment rate going from four to five is good and the unemployment rate going from four to seven is probably not good right right so It's about degree and extent and speed. Gotcha. But I think I think we're on plan for like a slowing a slow slowdown, right? I don't see, you know,

China's been slowing. And then don't forget the rest of the world, which many Americans do. China has been slowing much more severely. They just cut interest rates two days ago. I put a tweet out there on that. Now, their short rate is 1.3%. So 1.3, you know, imagine if the US were 1.3. Bitcoin, you know, could be 200, 300, I don't even know. But they're really concerned, of course, that the tariffs impact them more. Remember, trade is a sort of smaller percent of what we do. So, um, they're concerned.

The ECB has already cut interest rates, right? If was that a month ago or two months ago, whenever they did it. So, that's the rest of the world economy they've cut. And also that's supportive of liquidity, global liquidity, and that's also supportive of Bitcoin. So some part of this recent rally is also that other central banks have acted. Selling your Bitcoin should be a last resort when you need cash. That's why there's Leen, the trusted platform for Bitcoin backed loans. You can unlock cash in as little as 18 hours with no monthly interest payments and no prepayment penalties. They've issued over 9 billion in loans and never lost a single Satoshi of client funds, even

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Put your treasury cash to work earning native yields and protocol rewards. Built by the team behind Coin Shift, which is trusted to manage over 1 billion in business treasuries on chain, including a Gitcoin, and hundreds of leading institutions. cycusl is gaining traction at milkroad.com/coinshift. So when you when you did you did you watch or have you dove into the Fed meeting yesterday? Not really. I mean you know look I I'm not I'm before I ask you a question all day every day in crypto blockchain stuff I don't really look at the old world that much except I check in on my Bloomberg.

I see the gold price exploding up here at 3,300, 3,400. I think that's just fantastic because I'm also still involved in gold quite a bit. And as long as the stock market's sort of holding in, I think we're fine, you know? So, I don't the Powell's comments and this and that. He'll cut next time or the time after. He's just waiting for some employment data. So, but someone did I did read one comment on it that like he's never said nothing more than he did yesterday.

One of my partners said that uh Tad Smith Tad Tad said, "Can you believe it? The guy said nothing. I've never heard him say nothing as much as he did yesterday." That was our summary of it, too. And our community was like, "Did anyone watch?" And there was there was literally no reason to watch it. It gave you absolutely no information. That's the old world, guys. focus on the new world. Come on. Before we focus on the new world, because we will obviously get into crypto, um I just have a question around tariffs and this sort of like trade war that's going on. I'm just curious your framework of it. Like is this a bad thing? Is this a good thing?

Both just generally and then also bring it back into crypto. Did this end up being a good catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto? I feel like it actually was. Yeah. But just curious your general take on it and kind of where we're going with it. Yeah. Well, there are two parts. I mean the second part is look obviously bitcoin doesn't have a geography attached to it doesn't have a fiscal policy there is no government it's independent of all governmental you know tips so if one government is unhappy with another one maybe it impacts the currency maybe it impacts the underlying economy but bitcoin is outside of that so yes it's helpful in that sense but in the other sense to me I just see it as as I said fiscal

not austerity but fiscal tightening. It's it's a damper on growth. You know, if there's going to be more of a tax on a certain consumer product, maybe that reduces the demand. Also, importantly, it creates uncertainty. So, people just don't know what to do and uncertainty slows growth. So, that's another, you know, that's another thing, right? Uncertainty in and of itself slows growth and slowing growth is what we want, right? So that Powell doesn't have to worry about non-existent inflation. Do you think let's say I mean we just had our first deal that I don't know if the deal is

actually done today or not, but with the UK it appears and let's assume that more comes from here. What happens with growth once all those deals are kind of figured out? If if let's say we have a resolution with China, is it kind of back to where we were and and growth is going to pick back up and the business cycle pick back up or do you think there's now like a do you think there's more long-term damage from everything that happened here or what's your kind of on the business cycle? Well, trade, you know, net net, you know, some aspects of trade will be hurt, some will will benefit. My guess is net net at the end of the day it could be a wash or maybe slightly positive for us because it also cements relationships with partners who are real partners as

opposed to adversaries. The UK is a real partner. You know, Australia is a real partner. Canada hopefully we can you know have that cleared up too. Mexico. So maybe the strategy here is like isolate China, come to them at the end. do a deal with India. That's great news. I mean, India in the next 20 years is probably a more important economy than China, too. I mean, a lot of people argue that. So, I think this is just a way for the US to just, you know, maybe align things maybe not more even in our favor, but just to have things more balanced, you know. And I I I just look these kinds of developments take long

periods of time to actually know the ultimate impact. So I think when the VIX hit 60 that priced in the maximum amount of uncertainty and fear about what the impact could be, but then we'll see the impact develop over, you know, multi-year. But as I said, all I think it does is it takes the edge off of any inflation fear. And then also look, the reality is if you look at what AI is doing, that is massively deflationary. I don't know why the Fed hasn't done more homework on this. I just give you an example. You know, we have invested in 23 companies. I have the firm has 11 board seats. I was sitting in on a board

meeting yesterday for one of our companies and they said, listen to this, that all the coding that's done internally today, 40% of it is now done by AI. A year ago, that number was basically zero. So those coders, they don't need those coders anymore. That's in one year. I mean, that's a pretty dramatic change. So, I think AI, I mean, you listen to Eric Schmidt, he's on, you know, YouTube a lot now talking about this. It's it could be the most massive deflationary force we've ever faced. And here we have a central banker who's whatever 75 years old worried about the the CPI number. I

mean, it's it's absurd, right? Um I mean, it's it's absurd. I'm not saying he's not a smart guy. He's not trying to do his best, but like the Fed is a centralized old institution that does a lot of stuff with like, yeah, they have a lot of math. They have a lot of models, but there's a lot of gut feel. There's a lot of I'm feeling this and feeling that. Well, why aren't you feeling what the hell's happening with AI? I mean I mean, are you kidding me? I went from thinking I needed to hire five people. One of my partners is like, "Dan, we don't need anybody." I'm like, "Really? How are we going to work that

out? Um, who's gonna help me write my investment memos?" He's like, "Yeah, I'll do everything." And, uh, and then what is it I heard the other day? Um, was it Elon said in 10 years they're going to be 100 billion robots and that services and goods were going to be free essentially. So, that would that's deflation. If a service goes from being cost something to being free, he says the big challenge for human beings is philosophical. Is what are we going to need to do with all of the time that's going to open up because everything is going to be automated and robots are going to do everything for us. Look, I

mean, and he's not the only one saying that. Like they're talking about like what AI is going to be like two years from now, five years from now. It's crazy. You know, we've been pursuing intelligence, the species has from the beginning, and now we have something that says, well, there's more intelligence in AI than all of collective humanity put together. This going back 10,000 years. So, what do we We've never had this before. I mean, you can't you can't I mean, what are we going to do, Dan? This is the you know everyone we have on okay everyone we have on recently has been talking about this about AI and how much

it's going to change and one of the questions I have from this is obviously like as you just said why does he care about CPI like who cares about that anymore like that's the old world stuff you keep saying and what like what indicators or what metrics are going to matter moving forward because I feel like a lot of things that used to matter for macro and for whatever just don't really matter. anymore. And I'm just curious if that matters to you now. Well, I think if AI is really well, margins should improve a lot. So, companies I mean margins should expand.

I think the there are a lot of companies that aren't really techsavvy, so they'll they're probably going to have a problem. I think people that think the US stock market is going to start to underperform other stock markets, there's no chance of that. In my view, most of the places around the world are not as tech advanced or is sensitive to introducing new tech into processes. So, you know, I think China can do quite a lot, you know, in the robotics area, but they don't really have a stock market. I mean they in in the sense that people don't really trust their assets when you make an investment

there people investors don't know that your money is your money right if people can disappear in the middle of the night for two weeks who run large companies there foreign investors don't want any part of that so you know China can probably in a massive way adapt you know this robotic AI agentic future. Europe, I think, is way behind. I mean, just in our space, look what happened. Tether decided yesterday they're exiting Europe completely because of these micro regulations. I mean, think about how phenomenal that is. They're exiting a whole economy that's the same size or maybe a little even bigger than

the US because they don't want to be subject to those rules. That doesn't seem like a tech forward kind of place to be. You know what I'm saying? And um so the people who are getting left behind, it's massively deflationary for them too because they get crushed. And then the people implementing AI, you know, their margins explode. And so look, I think it's exciting and and it interacts with blockchain as well. I think AI and blockchain, you know, all these a agents out there, you know, the the move to, you know, the move for from the for the analog world to the 800

trillion dollars in assets that that is out there in real estate, in bonds, stocks, all of those things is all eventually going to be put on chain and I think eventually all of it will be fungeable with each other be tremendous opening up of liquidity, many assets that are illquid, the whole movement into, you know, RWAS, I think it's happening, it's still early and then that will be integrated with the whole new world of cryptocurrency and decentralized networks and I think they merge and I think AI is going to, you know, help make that happen. Also, I think AI is

very obvious and speeds up the development of the blockchain world because just think about like how difficult it is to move, I don't know, coins around in DeFi and all the different things you can do in DeFi. I mean, if you're a civilian, just a guy out there who doesn't even own Bitcoin, DeFi would like blow his mind. But the people who are active in DeFi are super tech and AI focused. So I think you get lots of applications of AI in the blockchain Bitcoin world because frankly in my experience, I mean those are the smartest people I've ever come across.

Not the 23-y old pump and dumpers of of new coins, but I'm talking about, you know, the guys out there building new chains, the guys running these major companies, Brian Armstrong, you know, um, you know, Arjun, uh, you know, at Kraken with David, you have, you know, some of the larger companies, Mike Kagny at Figure, Pascal, Ledger, you've got guys who are running really big businesses. And I think by the way many of those businesses are going to become public in the next you know 12 to 24 months. I think the US as I said before becomes the blockchain crypto capital of the world by encouraging all these

companies to list on the NYC or on NASDAQ. And I would hope within two to three years we've got 30 40 companies maybe you know maybe they're not as large as Coinbase but today Coinbase is the only public crypto blockchain company I mean of any significance and size and so I see a migration of those companies foreign and domestic to get listings. I think it gives them huge credibility and it also allows the traditional world access. It'll gives them comfort to buy, right? Because they can buy equity. Americans love owning cash flowing successful businesses. You know, they're not going to re, you know,

harder for them to jump into a punk or a board ape and all of that kind of thing. That's just, you know, it's a little too den for them. And I focus on like, you know, there's 800 trillion in assets and the digital asset ecosystem is worth like four trillion. So it's like 5%. It's very small, you know, very small. And that's why my new fund is called 50T because I think the value of the digital asset ecosystem generally can get to 50 trillion in the next 10 years. And that's still small because you figure the old world will go from 800 call it to 900 or close to a thousand trillion.

So it's still going to be only like five or six%. But I think we can head to 50 trillion. That means Bitcoin in my view can go up to a million dollars. It'll be 20 trillion of value. So I think that's where Bitcoin's heading. And then you have 10 trillion for the altcoins and everything else. And then you have I think 20 trillion will be all the rest of the businesses, the projects, everything that is involved in this move of value on chain. And that's how I get 50 trillion. Some people would say, I don't know, Bitcoin's going to be 50 trillion. But that would put it at a $2.5 million price tag. That's 25 times today's price. I mean, maybe it could. I

think a a 10x in 10 years is a lot more reasonable. Absolutely. Um we only have a couple minutes left, which by the way, Dan, you make um our job of hosting a podcast very easy because you sort of just like go through the whole thing and we don't have to say anything. We just sit here and nod our head and smile. Okay. Well, but some people Yeah, but some people in the comments are like, "Dan, would you shut up already? Why don't you let the other guys, you know, nobody's saying that, Dan?" Nobody Yeah, nobody say that. But we only have a couple minutes and I just want to and feel free to say pass and we'll we'll we'll end with something else. But the biggest crypto acquisition ever happened today and you're actually involved in both parties and I'm wondering if you can just share your thoughts on that on

kind of why or what your takeaway from it was because you just talked about how there's about to be all these companies going public and acquisition. It's all going to be in the US and we're seeing that play out today with our biggest acquisition ever by you know Coinbase acquiring Darab. I'm wondering if you can just talk about that uh as much as you can. Yeah, I I uh I think the deal will officially close in a few months. Yeah, I mean look, it was a deal brought to us at 21 by a friend, an old friend who brought us in. And look, they have a monopoly on the options. I think they're 80% of total world Bitcoin and ETH options trading. I mean, it's mindboggling. It's probably one of the most profitable companies in the space,

you know, after Tether. I mean, the net profits there are tremendous. I was anticipating holding on to the to the, you know, to the investment for 10 years. I expected and I had a certain return profile for us, but, you know, we had a minority position and the founders decided that, you know, they'd been in it for 10 years and it was time for them to, you know, to sell it. And we're thrilled that Coinbase is on the other side. I I I love what Coinbase has done, what they're doing. They're definitely the leader in the US in the space. So, it couldn't be a better sale. You know, again, I I was hoping that I could hold it for longer. You know, it's in all of

my four funds. And, you know, we we we've held it in some cases three years, in other case four years. It would have been nice to have held it for seven or eight years because then our returns would have been higher. But I'm very I'm very happy, you know, to hold Coinbase. I think that the Coinbase stock here is actually way too low and um it's going to be a significant part of what we do going forward. I'm always hesitant to talk about even more specific details because I'm always somehow saying something I shouldn't. Uh, I, you know, I have my president of my company, you know, who takes care of a lot of our legal and my CFO and they're always a little nervous when I do a podcast

because they, you know, sometimes live. They're actually they're actually behind behind your desk right now, right? No, they're not. But they're not. But it it's it's I because you know I I kind of you know say everything as it is basically and um you know I want to share a lot more information but it's it's a it's a pretty I mean pretty big we invested 140 million into this company and you know we'll make multiples on that. So it's a good it's a nice hit for us. And on the on the Coinbase side, I had an old friend and someone who I've known a while who was leading the charge on the Coinbase side, too. So, it was

nice to be able to, you know, have contact with both sides. And, of course, the banker did a a great job to get this across the line. I think it just still needs some regulatory approval. But they announced it today and um it is I think the largest deal in the history of the crypto markets. We have another one, funnily enough, coming next week. I think it's public so I don't know if I'm supposed to say it or not. Shoot me later. I'll have my president shoot me later if uh it's not. But e Toro, which we own 10% of our fund one is in E Toro.

That's coming public on Wednesday, I think. I think so. And apparently, it's overs subscribed already, which is good to know. They priced it, I think, at a low valuation. Maybe I'm not supposed to talk about that. I don't know. But in my opinion, it is too low. Jan, I I I know you got to go. So, I just But I want to ask you one question before you go, okay, which is um you're bringing up Coinbase and you're very optimistic and bullish on them. So are we. Uh, one thing that keeps coming up is what's the best non Bitcoin trade in this cycle?

What's the best riskadjusted non- Bitcoin trade across the entire space? Yeah. And I'm Yeah. Yeah. I'm not going to I'm asking for specific very difficult because No, let me let me let me let me give you a little bit more guidance here before you jump in, Dan. Uh, is it is it a a public company like a Coinbase or a Robin Hood who you believe has huge upside to crypto? Is it uh one of the leading L1s like a Salana or an ETH or is it an app and is it the app category? And I I'm not asking you for a specific token. I'm more asking you which category between those three are you more excited about in this cycle. So I mean I I just don't know because the universe you're asking me about is so

enormous today. I can, you know, make something up and say something, but I I don't you look, I think each cycle has, you know, these these extreme focal moments like in 21 we had DeFi summer, right? Then we had like NFT extravaganza period, right, with the Bull and all that other stuff. Then we've have, you know, stable coin explosion. stable coins settled four trillion I'm sorry10 trillion dollars last year four years ago that was zero is was stable coins you know the theme of last year were memecoins a theme you know and everything seems to go to an

extreme gets super hyped and then comes down and then over time reestablishes itself I mean DeFi is right now experiencing a super renaissance right now I mean revenues in DeFi in December were $230 million that's up, you know, over 10 times in the last 18 months. But that's happened very quietly. Like, who who's even talking about that now? We we are. Look, I talk my book. You guys have You guys have Okay, but I talk my book a little bit because I always say and I say this really clearly. I say I don't know much with a 99% degree of certainty. But I know with a 99% degree of certainty, okay, that Coinbase will

not be the only large crypto blockchain public company in the next 5 years. And so this is a story that has not yet played out. This is a thematic that is not yet it hasn't happened. So I think look, we have our my fourth fund launched our own spa. We have spaxs that are approaching our companies. In fact, the company that sponsors you, we're one of the largest owners of Leden. I'm on the board of LED. Okay. So, I know things about Leen that I I can't talk about here. So I'm just saying like if the US wants to

become the the global hub to me the way you do it is you encourage the companies to go public and list on our exchanges. That's how that's how the world with all that analog capital can move in easily. So again, I am talking my own book, but I think it's consistent with what the Trump administration is trying to do. And I think we could have a little bit of an equity mania where, you know, everyone is trying to go public. We have Circle, we've got Figure, you know, potentially Gemini, then you've got who knows, maybe Certic, maybe I mean Chain Analysis,

maybe Fireblocks. I mean, there are a lot of companies making a lot of money. I mean, maybe this is that cycle, right? I'm just saying there's a lot of growth in our space. They're tariffs aren't impacting them. You know, monetary policy maybe is impacting a little bit with liquidity, but we know that's coming. RWAS, that's very TRDFI focused companies that are focused on that. Maybe there's a desire to own those types of companies like securitize. So again, the only thing in my mind stopping that deluge is that just some of the companies are a little early, a little small from a revenue

perspective. But again, I'm 100% talking my own book, but I've been talking my own book for the last five years. I thought when I launched these funds and had the idea for them in 2019, it was always my idea that this was going to become a big sector within the S&P 500. And in 2019, people are like, "Dan, there are only 20 companies in your investing universe and they're all private. You're out of your mind." So I'm always being told that you know that and but I think that's a future I we could see.

For sure. Completely agree. Dan, absolute pleasure to get you back on the show. Thanks so much for your time and your energy today. Everybody listening in. Thanks so much for joining us. I remember remind you quickly none of today's show is financial advice. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Anything you are going to invest in is risky and you should do your own research and think about it before you invest. Before I let you go, I got to tell you quickly that one more time. We are looking for a podcast host to join our team and help us host Milkro Macro. So, if you know a great host or you're a great host yourself, check out the link in the show notes and apply today.

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any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose. Thanks so much for listening in my friends. Have a wicked awesome