The Eve of the Merge with Special Guests!!

Transcript

yeah it's fun I like the kind of the Cozy chat room and then chat room live pretty much already significant number yeah I didn't say the actual number because I didn't want you it's okay I can handle it I'm I'm a big boy as long as it's not like six digits and also now YouTube viewers uh different format today a little bit more casual uh we got Hudson Jameson in the bottom corner we got super Fizz in the middle and then the friendly faced Ryan up top what's up guys hey hello happy merch Miss merch Miss Eve happy emergency cheers what are you drinking Hudson well I have um hope this

doesn't get demonetized if you monetize angels and Dr Pepper nice Angel's enemy that's uh that's a good taste there my last caffeine was on a bankless episode with David like three months ago I'm like I'm primed for my next one I can't wait as soon as we're done with this I'm going for another caffeine can't wait yeah uh I mean I I've just been drinking caffeine all day but um I I don't know how long yeah that's usual for me I don't know if I can make it so okay so I think that is 6 a.m UTC someone translate that to Eastern I think that's 2 A.M eastern time 206. I believe that's one it's one is

this one six oh eight sorry six a.m UTC is 2 A.M okay so we're looking at um we're looking at 207. what are the Dynamics here super Fizz like what moves the uh clock up or what moves what pushes it back uh yeah so it's you know we're accumulating TTD the number of blocks that are mined before the merge um it's not technically the number of blocks but the combined difficulty of all of those blocks so we need miners uh to keep hitting blocks in order to raise that total terminal difficulty but some of the you know the the interesting

things playing in I think the big mining like warehouses they're they're gonna mine all the way through and then they're going to switch to something else but really I think what it comes down to are these home miners who have six eight or ten cards and they are hashing away at home but maybe either maybe for political reasons maybe they're like I don't want this to happen so I'm going to turn my my gpus off or maybe um what I was suggesting earlier maybe they've hit their payout Threshold at wherever they're Mining and they've got their they know they're not going to get like .01 East to hit the next payment threshold before the merge so they're just like it's it's dumb for me to to mine them I also shut down uh so I do think this is evidence that miners are

kind of slowing down ramping down um maybe they want to put us in a pinch but that's okay because that's uh that's the a part of the design of TTD that they they can't really do much harm are you guys seeing different uh estimates as well from like website to website I think at this point it should be pretty damn close to each other because we're so close okay here is uh ultrasound money eight hours 55 minutes here's Google we all knowing Google is about an hour different nine hours 40 minutes by the way absolutely incredible like Google put this that's so awesome right yeah I did not see that endorsement I know um but are there like I mean that's

that's some variance I don't know I've been mainly focusing on ultrasound money or all of the clocks a little bit different I only look at Mardel um I I know that there are a lot of other places but Cordell is really the the uh sort of what I would I would consider the most official source of data what's the link for dell.wtf I've been there I've been there and what is the saying 20 no they're saying five thirty that's the last time oh no yeah so eight hours one minute eight hours this is yeah

one on this website which I think is like hitting the chain directly the others might be actually drawing from apis instead of Wardell and this link are the ones I'm gonna trust the most during there's Hudson dropping it this is uh Mr arbino uh Matthew Robina witz um he's a Hudson somebody in the YouTube chat says where's your hat Anthony hi Craig you welcome to the merger um all right so this is saying about 146 Eastern the one that Hudson trusts the

most the worse the graphics are the higher the legitimacy that's that's yeah yeah all right what's up Hal how's it going what's going on nothing much you getting your trades on Hal I just actually took one off it was a [ __ ] [ __ ] if you guys ever do an OTC trade do not do it with GSR they are the [ __ ] worst what happens how does an OTC trade go bad in your world it was an options trade I bought the

the September 1500 calls in June and I I don't want to sell them out right but I wanted to sell them it's called delta neutral so the Vault the volatility on that has gotten like it went up tremendously because of the marriage and people buying options for the merge so I don't want to be long the ball anymore so I want to just convert the options to just straight eat and so you have to sell them delta neutral and so I just had to I just had to do that trade but they just took like an hour to show a price on it's a very I traded options for three years so I know like exactly how this is supposed to work and it's not supposed to work like this I asked them for a price and they gave me one like an hour later and it

was an absolutely horrible price like a laughably bad price and I just like basically called them out it was like I know how this works like I know what you're doing here this is absurd and they're like okay fine and then they showed like a remarkably better price but still garbage and I was like we're done but I'm never trading with you again and I've traded with your competitors and they're 50x better than you so you guys are gonna have no business in like a month wow but anyway is this where we say that GSR is a sponsor of the bank the show please no anyway anyway um how much trading are you gonna be doing over the next 24 hours you think

Cal a lot I have a lot of stuff does this feel like the World Series for you right now but yeah yeah but I'm not like I'm not going to be trading outright that much like it's not that I want to buy or sell you I kind of just have my positions and to be frank they're like pretty reduced versus what they were but they're good like core positions that I'm gonna leave but there's a lot of like idiosyncratic spread trades and stuff that I want to do um on the person I can I can tell you guys because it's like maybe I presume you're not going to go like talk about it to the world and you're not and like this this is streaming oh I am on a stream oh we should have told him after

okay I have no idea never mind scratch that forget everything we said about GSR by the way sorry I maybe wouldn't have said we'll say something nice it'll just erase it yeah yes GSR is great there GSR strategy yeah I was gonna say I have a funny trading story real quick um people are on this stream so we have we have two okay so people have been watching on the YouTube If you are in the bankless Inner Circle you can actually go into the Inner Circle and click the zoom link and join the chat here so we got we got how many people like 50 60 or something in the chat 41 uh hanging out with us uh and then we

have the five Zoom uh live streamers that you see here uh and then on the actual YouTube there's like 600 people which is crazy A crazy number oh wow yeah you guys really just uh yeah we really disrupt you there um this was like a chill it is Chill no there's no agenda just talk about whatever you want it is chill we're just live streaming it and turns out yeah okay yeah that would have been good to know my friend did I not imply that my bad um I totally chill in front of 600 people I can do 2 000 people but when it starts getting to like the 10 and 50k then I'm like I do get a little anxious

about the numbers all right you hear that ethereum yeah uh superfist has a hard cap though should we make sure we make bets on how many people are watching the EF stream later today like right now or later like at the moment of the merge there's gonna be forty thousand yeah what I was thinking 50 000 yeah yeah are you kidding me years ago go to four thousand wow that's I think the only thing that's going to take our views is that uh the timing has become unfortunate yeah the timing's been pretty [ __ ] the US yeah who is going to like coordinate that what's the EF stream going to be like uh Hudson it's it's not an EF stream at all

as far as I know I don't think but that's super business deal he can answer that I'm sorry I was reading the chat what was the uh they asked about the official stream later or well people are calling it the official stream it's just it's like bankless ethereum cat herders eth Staker and like someone else uh yeah yeah so it's not ethereum Foundation at all although I mean obviously there's going to be people like Danny and vitalik in there for me on the EF YouTube channel though right yeah but it's not it's not official it is it's an agreement and the idea really was it's the shelling Point idea we want it to be where most people would look for it and so one of the very first things I'm going to say is this is not an official stream we are not

representing the ethereum foundation we are a bunch of communities coming together on Common Ground okay cool damn can I just replay that I said it right so what it what are what are we actually going to be doing on the live stream later today when the merge actually happens I would like is there an interface we're watching or what's that yeah there will be a bunch of metrics most of it will be slot Vis um it is it's a beacon chain product that shows um you know I don't know if you've seen it before but it's just a list of of green blocks showing um uh showing block proposals and then the participation rate so first we'll watch a countdown uh I remember this one is this right I remember this from the actor so when the merch happens is this

going to keep updating no this is gonna crash [Laughter] you know that question someone asked in chat is is um will we know immediately if things have gone terribly wrong and in reality um we'll know if things have gone really right and everything works perfectly but the highest likelihood is that some of our like front-facing info will go down like this site will go down or it will get dirty data and it will look like things are terrible um but then you know 30 minutes later when everything catches up and gets synced back up it will become Rosy that's right some dry powder yes it will look the highest likelihood outcome is that these

sites will become slammed and things will look bad um all but while the network continues to hum along and then they catch up and begin to look better is there is there no way to get a real-time look at how things are going you just looked to Danny Ryan the fastest people to have that data they are the Oracle so basically this I could kind of answer only because I used to run these calls way before we were doing these two things so like 2017-18 1920 and uh basically while we were writing them the people on the call were kind of ignorant to what was going on because you know we don't have the data or the nodes things we were going by public websites with URLs that everyone

could hit go down but behind the scenes devops people from different clients in the ethereum foundation have their own internal tooling where they're looking at things and they have separate chat rooms that we will never see where they're going like hey is everything good people in this team like there's there's stuff going down at least a little bit behind the scenes that we're not going to be seeing but it will be filtered through different channels to both Twitter and to the stream on a few minute delay if that makes any sense so that's just kind of yeah like it's not there's not like uh Engineers on the call there's not a there's not a website that'll show it it'll just come verbally from the actual devs you know what we need a website that's like did the merge

work yes or no green sorry Perry and Danny have done a really good job of discussing or walking us through where we're at in finalization they've been very vocal um what what we're gonna see up to tdd everything is going to look fine and normal we're gonna see the pandas um and the next 13 minutes are the real critical Zone that is explain the pandas because not everyone knows what that means that's a really cool feature to put in if if you have if you're watching a log file um so like a console log file the clients have implemented kind of ASCII art that will show pandas doing

different things uh and there's sort of this um I don't know unspoken competition between the clients to have better ASCII art so when you're when your client reaches that total terminal difficulty number uh if you're watching your console log you should see some kind of Panda action in all of the [Laughter] make sure in all of the test Nets we've sort of celebrated that as as oh God I'm gonna this is gonna be a pun as the climax uh it was there like I had to take it but really it we're trying to shift the climax to finalization that is the the

thing that we really want to get to but like we'll let devs know one minute in what the participation rate is they will not know and they'll know a current participation for this right but that's that's a pretty good but that's a pretty good indication yeah uh there's there's gonna there's going to be some noise on the network uh there there are going to be nodes that haven't updated there are going to there's of course I I would say they're even the devs will hold their breath to make any assumptions until after uh the first Epoch is done and how long is that period the holding the best six minutes six point yeah it's it's 32 6 32 12 second slots

so we see the pandas and then uh six minutes we hold our breath for six minutes but like they they should know three minutes in what the participation looks like yeah what really they're probably gonna focus more on on block proposals for that they just want to see that blocks are being proposed and filled with transactions right and so really like seeing 70 of those blocks filled with transactions it's it's fine um yeah that's good this is this kind of reminds me have any of you guys seen like a rocket launch like in person no no off the platform same here I never have either but like you know after you know the rocket takes off from the launch pad there's still a

period of time when you're not out of the woods right it's like it has to enter orbit yeah I mean there's like there's definitely I don't know how long that that period of time is that's true like something similar here yeah and after liftoff what we're doing is we are live switching an engine of the rocket we're from one engine to another and while it's flying and hoping it takes it Mach 8 holding on to the side deal with this Danny Ryan actually given updated metaphor to that Hudson that I really like where we're not actually switching the engine we are have two planes that are going flying like wing tip to wing tip and we're taking the payload of one plane and putting it onto the other plane which makes sense right

which is you know definitely definitely challenging but actually like I feel like less challenging than having to swap out an engine mid-flight you just have to like carry over the payload which I like that metaphor so it looks like TT so it looks like we're gonna hit it at 2 A.M eastern time now and that's without hash rate declining further which it probably will so we're probably like I mean yeah yeah on my GPU I'm already out of family I don't care I'll just do this again that's that's saying 2 A.M it's probably going to be more like 3 A.M I imagine that's yes I I believe half rate is going to continue to fall oh yeah it shows it's going to show I'm sorry scroll down and it will show the last few um block times one more yes this one so

you can see we have some really low and and we're not getting any above the average anymore right um yeah so we're looking at a 3am merge that is literally the worst possible time yeah for East Coast um not if you want to do on-chain arms and I was like think of me I can see how just crushing Red Bulls just like going after uh we will not need any Red Bulls natural stimulants will will be enough today I was thinking about like the emotions of today and before uh we we went live on YouTube we were talking about this um Hudson about like does anyone feel nervous about the merge and we're saying like as

not as kind of Community member participants content creators I I'm kind of fine like I don't feel nervous at all but imagine you are a core Dev and I'm wondering Hudson you've been in the like in the minds in the rooms of core devs in like hard Forks past right and this is probably the this the most important hard fork in ethereum's history I mean it's got to be at least the highest Stakes one what are the devs feeling right now yeah so I've mostly seen from what I can tell they're feeling really confident but like um definitely still cautious and preparing so it's kind of a combination but if it were to be like are they feeling more optimistic or more cautious

I'd say optimistic because there's been just so many freaking um trials and test net forks and live simulations and merge simulations that like with and when I say like simulations what I mean is like they literally take all of the data that's on the main chain and they replicate it to like practice the merge over and over again and each time the clients uh get better and better at fixing any bugs that happen all working together things like that it's kind of like this is like an acrobatic feat because there are what like 11 no wait like eight or eight to ten clients uh that are all working together and all have to be on the same page using the same specification to

work together and that really helps the security but it also is like a huge complexity challenge so I think there's going to be some teams that are more nervous than others um because some of them might not um have their stuff as together as others but I don't have much insight into who those teams are uh just kind of some Whispers And otherwise the teams that are really you know you know hitting it out of the park are the ones who are feeling the best right now and they're just really excited and they're gonna cautiously like look to celebrate as soon as they know things are okay like 30 minutes after if the merge went wrong like how would it go wrong how could it go wrong at this stage um superfist do you have anything off the top of your head because I'm kind of

like there's a bunch of things I'm kind of thinking of like the most prudent ones from what I've taken let me answer my stupid naive take and then superficial you'll will you know scale up the complexity of the answer my my like simple take is that everyone is planning on something to go wrong because you know not is the merge isn't isn't designed to be perfect it's designed to be good enough and then we figure out what are the holes that we miss and fix them after the fact it's just like when when people ask like is the merge going to work they're like well is there going to be an event that's so bad that like you know it wasn't actually good enough it accidentally wasn't good enough and that's something like blocks don't finalize and so superfist I'll give it to you

yeah I would say that there are and again I have to to preface what I say I am a Community member I'm not a developer um I I really like I'm a school counselor but um I have been following this for you know several years like literally several years um and so there are two major classes of failures that we can expect we can expect client failures or node operator failures and so the client failures have been tested through the the main Shadow Forks that we've done over and over and the best exhibition of node operators uh is what's the Bellatrix work that we did a week ago

um we we lost some um operators uh but we were down to I believe 95 we lost five percent of node operators and this is the the incentivized fork right because they're losing money at this point right that's right yes that Bellatrix is when uh the uh consensus client updated to prepare for the merge uh and anyone who was not updated fell off the chain uh and so we know there's there's just this really high likelihood that that everyone has updated since then because we're getting 99 participation again so we have a high confidence that 99 of uh nodes are updated and we have high confidence that the clients already uh can you repeat

that how do we know that 99 is updated because we had the Bellatrix work on September 6th that required nodes to be updated to continue operating on the Chain we lost five percent and in that time they got back up to speed and joined the network again uh so um you know you have those two different classes of errors and then the types of Errors we might expect are failure to propose blocks proposing empty blocks for attestation problems um and it's it's difficult to weight which of those is most likely what's the recovery for that super fizz uh it client updates it is it would mean that

um I would say essentially all three of those well so low participation is going to be node operators not having updated client software and so they would need to reconfig and figure out why they broke um empty blocks would be a failure on the client teams and they would need to figure out why issue an update and have people patch and then failure to propose blocks um again that would be a client issue that they would need to find out why their client isn't proposing but the odds are that if any one of them fails um it's fine so prism does have still well prism and Lighthouse both are like

40 percent they can slow finalization but the chain will keep going as long as we have at least 50 percent they'll issue an update uh it will only take you know one or two it's I don't love centralization but when you get one of those large centralized providers to update their stack everything comes back um sorry go ahead no I'm done okay I was gonna say so yeah that was a great explanation of that but just to make sure um everyone understands the client diversity thing here it's kind of a blessing and a curse because we got like all these different clients that you can mix and match in fact I have adapt node which means I made my own you know box to put my validator on I only have one

validator and I put dap note on it and that what that does is it provides an interface where I can switch between execution layer clients and consensus layer clients so I can switch between you know prism and Lighthouse and I can switch between Geth and nethermind like super fast and easy so if there is a failure some of the biggest node operators have infrastructure already to do that switch um one of the places where I'm going to be looking like if I'm worried about stuff happening to the merch the places where I'm looking like super Fizz alluded to were highest areas of concentration so that's going to be prism is there a prism bug that someone exploits or that happens during the merge that's a a bit of a deal but it's not a deal breaker it doesn't break the

chain if something happens to Lido if something like really critical happens to Lido I would be I would be a little worried um because I don't understand it enough so that would just be out of ignorance and fear but at the same time they make up enough of a percentage of the stakers that if they're not operating correctly I don't know what their fallback infrastructure is um superfizz do you have anything like on that front just because I know you've been shouting for client diversity for so long yeah well I know I believe they're at 29 operators right now and and their operators are what we kind of call semi-independent so they're not controlled directly by lighter they do have some like devops free reign whiteo does give them uh

bumpers to stay within um but it it's and I I was I didn't want to bring this up earlier but the the clients that went offline at Bellatrix I believe it was two from uh two Lido operators and a figment operator which each of those represents about one percent of the network um so if if a Lido operator does go down uh it's not it's not catastrophic and the fact that they are uh primarily independent operators means that we're not going to lose you know that whole 30 percent of the network at one take great yeah go ahead I love something G Harrison said that was all I had Harrison said uh as long as we're up and

running before everyone wakes up that is probably a gift of doing this at 3am yeah several hours to get things fixed before anyone sees the news right but the client teams are like all across time zones all over the world right so it's like we're talking from an East Coast perspective it's gonna be in the middle of the night like we're in Asia times do we have somewhere in there are there are um I believe uh one of the teams maybe uh Nimbus or something is all mostly in Australia I think let's do a quick uh update on the time here so the White House is in Australia um I believe is in Eastern Europe yep um so this says if I'm going to bring

this East 1 38 a.m Eastern right now 1 38 so that is uh oh Eastern yeah yeah a.m on Thursday yeah okay but um this says 220. this says 220. I mean that's quite a quite a variance which is interesting the different like estimators um ultrasound money is still saying yeah the key is not to take the average of these we're not assuming these are all equally right some have better predictive algorithms than others yeah

and I think you still trust this one uh the uh 797.io the merge the most how I'm sure you have like uh changing the subject a little bit here I'm sure you have like a bunch of different positions on and all different like Scopes but like what's what's like your favorite one what's your favorite position that you have right now my favorite position is long coinbase e and Ste versus short Futures how do you have that how does that trade work basically you just long a liquid Sega derivatives and you sell a future against it and then you're betting that the spread between the stake each token and just spot equal will go down after Parts like basically

everybody has been selling their liquids taking derivative each tokens because they want to get the fork we can talk about the fork too by the way so dumb like am I am an idiot for thinking the East pal Fork is a bunch of nothing burger no I think I think it's I think it's worthless I actually tried to short it today um it's not that scary but the only exchange that allows you to do it as an x c and they wouldn't let me put on any reasonably sized position but you can you can pre-sell so this is kind of interesting you can pre-sell your eth forks so if you have eth you can convert your eth to an E Futures Contract with prices in the price of the

fork so for example the December future is right now I'll just check is right now Trading 21 Below spot so like if eth is 1607 that future is trading 15.86. so you can take your eth and sell it at 1607 and buy the future at 1586 and then as soon as the merge occurs the future is going to just immediately move to the spot price so you'll get that 21 so you effectively pre-sell your fork on your Eve so you give up the right to the fork but you take in an extra 21 bucks so I already did that on all my eats earlier it was trading at like 35 and I sold all my Forks only have Futures I only have Futures and then I went

another level higher which is that I converted my Futures to the liquid staking derivatives because coinbase was trading eight percent below spot because everyone was just dumping all their liquids taking derivatives to get the forks so I bought coin so so then I got then I bought coinbase e at eight percent below and sold my future two percent below so I took in another six percent um and so now I'm basically left with Ste and CBE as all my eth exposure and then I have some additional on just versus the future itself um so you've just been stacked in Arbitrage Arbitrage after Arbitrage well it's not Arbitrage but like I've been taking those scripts because I think they're all going to collapse um like there's risk associated with it but right um yeah I'm happy to take that

risk and then I have I still have like a core eighth position a core each BTC position which I plan to run for like multiple years that's the one I'm running right now yeah yeah right like uh I'm I kind of on an earlier live stream I haven't thought too much about this but like I'm on like an 18 month time Horizon on my BTC position yeah yeah well it's the good thing about it is it carries really well right so like you get paid on the e-flag and you also get paid on the BTC leg so you get like 10 carry and whatever the price does um so it's a very good trade especially right now where you're getting paid for the fork and eat too right um so I have those on I have a couple things that I think have

been super super hyped um into the merge like way more than eth and some of which are like kind of a hedge for if something goes wrong with eth that when they're merged trades but they're really like anti-merge trades because they do well if something bad happens and I plan to aggressively short those post merge I've already shorted some of them and then I'm gonna like press what kind of stuff is that is this like music or like too much I don't want to talk about all of them because I'm literally gonna short them all in like a few hours yeah we can't front run hell runs us okay okay so real quick I have a story one

time I was drinking and like I think this was 2017 and I had never really traded before and I was on like one of the earliest dexes like pre-unis swap or something and uh or it might have been 2018 and I Market bought over 12K worth of spank chain literally took all the spank chain out of that X and cause the price to jump 10 cents wasn't it uh no it was it was The Ether Delta it was ether Delta I remember selling spank chain on ether Delta the only Ico that I ever took part in was Bank chain and I was like watch it it went up to like 50 cents after Ico at 3 cents went up to 50 cents at the peak of

the bull market and I went in back down to like five cents or something so I took it to uh ether Delta I remember like being a kid with like a few thousand dollars to his name and I was still moving the price is that's one of the most empowering feelings it really is dude being like a young Trader like I have you know two thousand dollars and I am like moving and moving things yeah someone just said I'm house exit liquidity that's probably true at some point in the last few years that has happened so none of you guys think about the gist of it none of you guys think that the eth proof of work token Jane is gonna do anything so okay so here's here's how I

think about it so right now on the Futures it's priced at 21 so that's about a 2.3 billion dollar market cap so the problem with the fork is that immediately when it like goes into circulation which is presumably very shortly after the merge every single token is circulating right so there's at that price there is 2.3 billion dollars of Heath Forks hell and okay so let's just let's just guess what portion of that do you think has to be sold like at least 50 of people minimum are going to try to sell their Forks they want like probably way more but let's just be conservative and say 50 you can probably closer to 80 but let's just say 50. that

means that in order to just maintain the current valuation you need 1.15 billion dollars to buy the fork immediately like you tell me where one billion dollars of fourth buying is going to come from day one I can tell you I can tell you so there's it's a not that much but getting close to there would be a combination of Justin's son Chandler go out and a third party that we don't know about they are not bidding 1.15 billion dollars evaluation those aren't the bidders never mind I think uh Hudson found the website for us that determines how to your question on whether we've emerged oh cool here it is

[Laughter] just stream this for the next nine hours David we all need to go eat dinner I'll just leave the stream on and I'll just this is I want to see this light get hugged and like go down because there's so much traffic that's hilarious um have you guys but oh go ahead hell I just I have to run but just to close the loop on the fork what I'd expect to happen is that it will get dumped initially like very dramatically to some valuation where the supply can be absorbed like let's say 500 million valuation and then there probably is 250 million dollars of buying at that price and so it'll kind of settle there it'll be like kind of a typical airdrop so they get dumped really quickly um and then they settle at a low price

and then it will have some like pretty big kind of parabolic upside to probably not to the initial price but to some higher price so like it might go it might start at 2 billion for like a picosecond go to 500 million and then like go up 100 to a billion and then just like Peter into nothingness um it would be my sense like yeah like like a traditional airdrop kind of price action um but anyway I unfortunately have to run because I have to take a nap before if uh this thing okay but it was it was I think I it was great Chad thanks for having me on thanks a lot for coming on yeah thanks for like 2 A.M 3 A.M have a good one guys yeah I'll be here all

right the Naps will be real today that that is definitely oh no no no the stream isn't stopping till the merge guys I just woke up from my nap for this I was like 10 minutes before more I'm like all right I'm not sleeping till tomorrow this time God I can't make it it'll be David and I will have to swap uh swap out have you guys seen like an uptick in all of the fake metallics though I mean everywhere it's expected right um I saw this though apparently there are some fake vitalics that have blue check marks yeah they're it's an it's a coach because they changed their name wow is that is this a characterize that they buy do they buy check marked accounts to do this scam I have no idea

it's like um vitalik obviously has a fake checkpoint that is a real oh that this looks like uh saying why are people silent on this that has been the new uh the new meta of scams lately right tell me tell me that that link is uh a Rick Roll please tell me about to find out yes big tall his sense of humor yeah he's great oh well you know speaking of italic it's you know um not even vitalik saw the merge hash rate being what it is so this is vitalik saying looks like the hash rate will

drop weeks before the merge due to miners rushing to sell ahead of everyone else that's the thesis that's what I thought too I thought for years I thought this would happen and it's been proven completely false and he says I'm a bit surprised I argued a 50 drop but definitely expected five to ten percent and look I mean we're pretty flat all the way up to now so I know we're complaining about 3 A.M and how the the hours have moved but like it could have moved by days I mean that's what I sort of expected the fluctuation to be do you know it's gonna be hilarious is is we'll stay up all night like preparing for this and it'll be pushed like into a perfect time tomorrow morning like it'll be 10 a.m tomorrow morning if we had

just gone to bed it'd be fine do that there are some minors that have no idea that this is coming like there are some miners on subreddits that like here here Ryan I think that was a troll you think so there are some who are absolutely oblivious to the merge maybe this one's a troll but there are others that are definitely not trolls and so like this this post is saying I finally have my ether rig stable 18 days without any crashes which is a normal ether mining suburb I used to go submitted eight hours ago right this is where I got started yeah this is where it is where Margot started yeah this is where I was like ripping my hair out trying to get my minor up and running and like we have people on this uh like subreddit like talking about like yo

like the ethereum merchants are gonna happen they're going to delay it and then people here there's like another screenshot I can show you it will crash today 100 chance 100 chance this red is actually the impetus for each Staker because I I was like they the community isn't strong it is like uh so competitive there like I just hope for it to be different yeah what is the what are they saying what's kind of the top I used to have miners that ran for like I'm thinking of Bitcoin but I would leave the miners running for six or eight months without looking at them and so I do six months I had six months up time on your minors oh yeah well in Asic it will run forever oh and Asic yeah yeah my miners would crash every at least if I had six weeks

of minor uptime I was really happy yeah David what am I looking at you sent me this uh oh never mind that's the wrong one ignore that sorry is that yeah so I uh how about the eat staking Community I mean that's got to be kind of the polar opposite of ether mining mining these days like this is the moment they've been waiting for yeah yeah um you know East Staker is is primarily a a technical support kind of like um I I would say more of the community ethos is is probably an eth Finance or Twitter

um and there's not a ton of that ethos kind of stuff on in the eve Staker Community it's more of like getting people up and making sure people are running yeah totally all right let's remake best about when the merge actually happens like for money between three and four if denominated bets sure no I'm not in the betting I'm not in the betting mood right now no I'm not I'm not a business right oh what am I betting on sorry does it matter when the merge actually happens I'm going well between three and four A.M I'm gonna go between I think it's gonna happen let me do an exact

time and see how close I get all right so it's gonna happen at 3 48 a.m 3 45 Central Central Time central time that is 4 48 Eastern yes wow that is um shitty so what's your bet what's your bet David uh between three and four but I guess I have to get it more refined what do we win don't isn't there like some kind of rare like bankless swag that only certain people could get yeah you are right yeah you still have some David I have yeah I got a box of them in my closet and carrying them around for like two years how about the winner gets a BAP winner gets a BAP yeah yeah I think we're too pessimistic I don't think it's going to be that the hash rate is yeah I still think we're gonna

see it I guess that is a lot of hash rate we're probably we're probably just seeing like the surface level retail turn off yeah there's still money in it yeah there's no money and also like two things so eth Miner or uh ether pool eth minor uh bit fly that whole that whole conglomerate they run like 30 of hash rate last I looked and then they're gonna keep running until the end with whoever joins their pool same with um and I'm gonna guess uh spark pool does the same thing so that accounts for plus minus 50 of the network hash rate going until the end so now we have to deal with the other percentage and that might just be people shifting to other mining pools so yeah we might not need to be too pessimistic

okay I can tell you the the people in the uh telegram for planning this call are like doing the not like this medium and pulling the hair out because it's just getting later and later and there's like an agenda and [ __ ] like I'm gonna be the only one hyped up for that call I feel like top for it what's up JJ hey JJ hi hi baby hi Hassan okay Do my face hi Ryan hello everyone no problem for the listeners out there JJ uh was on layer zero not too long ago and it was a fantastic episode everyone really liked that one JJ yeah I yeah I hope everyone enjoyed it and I can bring some different

perspective yeah so yeah the merge is coming like in the recent days my ex-girlfriend send me a message asking about the merge yeah no way [Laughter] what was the question yeah uh oh let me check my message yeah basically it's like uh what is the significance of the merge and like what will be the impact of the merge how'd you answer that one uh I said basically it's a security upgrade yeah that's the most important thing so you didn't say the words ultrasound money not to go up no no no no we don't like to discuss

about the price yeah even though work in the finance industry but yeah and what's funnier is that my father sent me a like link the news about the merge the title is like uh the flip name the the ethereum is going to take over blocked uh Bitcoin as a like number one market cap uh cryptocurrency so I'm so shocked when we were talking to uh Justin Drake yesterday I guess he's been um on the kind of the interview circuit with kind of mainstream Publications who have just all suddenly reached out I mean he named like I don't know half a dozen or more so many BBC The Economist Time Magazine

I think this is one uh the the approach mainstream seems to be focusing on is not ultrasound money not not never go up not price but um energy use obviously completely completely evaporating and um you know that that that's definitely a a cool uh byproduct or maybe it's part of the intent as well um but uh yeah that seems to be the thing that they've grappled onto in in mainstream so it's easy it's the only immediate and obvious consequence of the merge like yeah what does the merge mean for me oh minings go away going away fine like they're like they're not going to understand the

significance of like Supply reduction they're just gonna say oh crypto isn't destroying the planet anymore oh I guess that's nice the more traction that gets the better we off we are but you know like um it felt like a year ago at this time uh when nfts were going bananas just the vitriol of the The Gaming Community against nfds and a lot of it was like Hey you know GPS are so expensive uh I wonder if on the back of the merge that starts to tone down a little bit foreign I think it would and the reason well I'm already starting to see some post on Reddit and stuff about how people are scooping up super cheap gpus because of

this even if they're used so I think the vitriol will die down and also like there is GPU mining is kind of dying there's really only a handful of coins that you can you can be profitable on pre-merge post merge the margins are just gonna delete yeah they're just gonna go away because like ravencoin's already saturated and that was one of the biggest opportunities to move your mining to and then also ethereum Classics getting saturated uh eth pal is not eth pal is a clown show I don't know yeah that doesn't work so like okay so you have it ethereum at a 200 billion dollar Network what is the next largest GPU minable

Network after that one and I think it's ethereum classic coming in at where is it where is it you can sort it on coindeco I think by GPU miners uh by type of uh by if they do pow versus POS yeah I think ethereum classic is a five billion dollar market cap so we're gonna have 195 billion dollars of GPU minable reward Network getting deleted and the next largest chain is ethereum classic at five billion dollars like that market is going to be absolutely flooded yeah I'm looking uh where is it it's because yeah there was I'm on the page for coin gecko but I can't find it

yet either way yeah I think I think what you're saying is true yeah but wow look at that price run by each classic in the last like 24 hours about Raven coin god I cannot imagine my I I did not imagine I did not have ravencoin on my merge day bingo card not at all my that is out of the blue speaking of merch day Bingo cards I have a merged a bingo card yeah I'll post the link okay it's actually it's pinned to my Twitter so it's at the top of my Twitter but I'll post the link in here look at this chart look at this eth classic chart um by the way does does anyone still have any Etc on this call no why would you oh those were the days do you remember this uh but why did this happen

uh when was that may 2021 uh yeah that's random bull market yeah that was the psychological top of ethereum May 2021 31 billion market cap that's what ethereum classic one too now but like look at this run up from July I'm sure that's any development on East classic anymore even I saw recently even Charles hodgkinson was just Downing eth classic wow yeah classic doesn't have a cult leader to support it oh yeah no I can talk about each classic they have lost all semblance of coherent leadership at this point anyone who I felt was a respectable person in that Community has

left uh they were like I think I said it recently in another chat like six 12 months ago I would have been like okay they're kind of dying out but there's a chance of them like having a Resurgence in some kind of Direction now there's zero chance like it's it's absolutely pitiful it's like less than sad if you go down to the 35 pump I mean yeah somebody's holding it someone someone I really it's the coinbase buyers who think that it's ethereum yeah really is this is this wow finally got into into I told him to buy ethereum and so he went up open on coinbase and told me he bought ethereum and then yeah he was telling me it's

like the cheaper one my my crypto is like up sent today and I would go look at ether and be like up three percent I'm like that what's going on and then I went home I looked at his phone and he had bought youth classic not an actual Heath this is heartbreaking that story all right what's the drinking game Hudson oh so yeah so basically I made this off of some suggestions from Twitter and other places so um drink once if an El or client is mentioned oh wait super Fizz is like hosting this so this is going to be fun for him to like subconsciously be thinking about this there's no subconscious I'm pushing it baby yeah okay so Drake once if there's an awkward silence that's gonna be fun

uh drink twice if a baby is on screen a few of the devs have newborns or you know a few years old kind of like they debut you and then uh drink twice if Jonathan Mann sings um drink twice if looking great or it looks good is said as we're like looking at the dashboard uh drink three times if emerge client participation is above 90 that's supposed to happen good yeah so there you are so the shot is the first time a panda is shown so that should be at the merge you take a shot basically shot when the first POS block finalizes that's six minutes later roughly and then shot if Danny's cat walks across the screen I've seen that happened three times in one stream before exactly so that's that

then the rules and then there's also a bingo link that you have to highlight and open on that same tweet uh for uh and this is a sample bingo card here are the here are the uh words what's Leslie Leslie is the name of the Rhino uh that's the mascot for the merge I didn't know that yeah news to me where is Leslie where do you see Leslie uh so go to like launchpad.com.org it's there yeah right oh I I know the I know the Rhino I just did not know that Rhino had a name named Leslie it's uh from Leslie Lamport right the uh developer yeah there's the Rhino this is this is Leslie yep yeah named after Leslie Lamport you're right okay well so what's the panda's name does the panda have a name

no okay the panda is a pandems that have citizenship anywhere that makes it even better for like a quiz question like just asking people to you know to to know the name and it's there isn't one I'm a bunch of false choices I think I recognize all of these other names all of these other terms Paris hard Fork name verkle someone gonna say vertical on the stream uh you know what how would that come up so so if metallic or Justin or someone super technical is like well now what's gonna someone's like what's happening after the merge and they're like well we're really focusing on vertical proofs and the researcher on that is dedicated to this one team that's when this would happen all right

special uh this is a really special day special occasion oh definitely that's I felt like super Fizz would say it I don't know the word special right before yeah I've heard it that way just wondering if they had some special context here myself getting stuck in one of those uh one of those ruts where I just say you know the same word six times in a row in one sentence it's special for all of us special about this special event yeah are you gonna have a teleprompter supervised or just completely off the cuff I mean it's no it's not a big deal right like so many times yeah it's easy uh I can't imagine because I don't know the numbers yeah yeah yeah I can't imagine

doing this drinking game at like between three and four a.m I'm doing it and I'm on the stream to like do some q a at the end of it transferhost 200 Hudson he profess at any point in the Stream if it's if you need to go to bed you hit it hit me up thank you yeah should we get into some serious questions here um I don't know if there's anything from the the chat that you guys are seeing how about this I've been watching the chat no one's really it's too we're still still too far out from the merge to be serious yeah I do have an interesting question if you go back to vitalik's tweet that shows

the hash rate um it's interesting to yeah it's interesting to note that on uh so between June and July there is like right there that that huge drop that seems to have flattened out um that that just seems interesting like right as in uh I don't know maybe someone gave up but you don't see a terrible decline after that it's it's like exactly One Moment In Time yeah totally why why do you think do you have any thesis for why uh someone decided not to upgrade their Rigs and they maybe uh just decided to bail instead it could be

a dag thing or maybe oh what about um I I don't keep up with politics too much but there was a China ban could that be around the time but that was earlier right I don't really know the physicist I have an answer to that question uh in the YouTube chat they're asking why is there 70 each apy on Ave apparently Ave people who have deposited ether and Ave are withdrawing their ether and so there's a there's like a supply crunch of ether inside of Ave right now because everyone's withdrawing it I guess to claim the eth pal um token that's my only like my only like guess but like apparently there's

like not very much ether and Ave right now and so the yields on depositing ether are super super high I'm so old that I'm still hesitant to lock a lot of my ether up in a contract like I do it with maker Dow but I'm hesitant to leave a lot of my ether like in a smart contract for a long time yeah I mean I I you I'm I'm totally comfortable exchanging but not 71 crazy dude I've never seen this this is crazy so borrowing on the ethereum market has been paused ahead of the merge to mitigate liquidity risk so you can't borrow any more ether but so but people are also withdrawing their ether

interesting I don't know why is this happening David well okay so I guess they're just like locking it locking the contracts to stabilize things as it goes through the merge but I saw like a chart of like e-supply and Ave just like go down like by 75 look at this wow wow that's crazy um you could still deposit me so you can still deposit each yeah so like you if you want to deposit ether you can get 71 for a moment right 24 hours for 24 hours yeah not not too much but still I mean these are like a little bit weird these are defy summer level yields right this is like right yeah back to the farm days yeah I haven't

seen I haven't seen that in a while yeah it's pretty incredible those are to me too good to be true numbers like I just can't I I missed out on a lot of D5 summer because it just felt too sketchy to me yeah yeah I I don't know like I don't know I've talked to David about this I've not talked to a lot of evils about this but like I've still waited to stake a whole bunch of my eth right so like I have some eat steak but like I've been kind of waiting until post merge yeah like just in case yeah I feel like a lot of people are why not wait until post withdrawal what what's what's the difference between merge and withdrawal I don't know it I guess it depends uh I think the bigger thing merge seems like

the bigger thing the withdrawal is like this is the moment to use that analogy of like we're swapping the jet engine right mid-flight yeah um and this seems like the highest risk type Point um yeah and like the AP wise for me previous to this just haven't been completely worth it and I wonder if there are a lot of ethicals in that camp where they're just like wait till after the merge if all goes well well I'm gonna yeah I think there's a lot of these Bulls who are like I'll stake five to ten percent of my eth now and then post merge I'll stake the rest yeah I think there's oh that's me I I haven't gone 100 in you haven't well I'm also um wow do you care about ethereum Fizz

do you not believe I believe there's a high likelihood that my sell point is going to happen in the next six months that I that I'm I'm gonna be at that you know um is right and I I trust how I I there's a chance that the price is gonna gonna hit somewhere where I'm like I need cash I want to cash out on some of this uh and so if I'm if I'm totally State and you know I I don't I don't do LS liquid staking um some liquid if to sell if if things turn out the way that they're likely to

possibly could is there any sort of consensus as to like how long the gist is until withdrawals are enabled I've heard like six months was like the original number then that got kicked out to 12 months what's what's the new number that we're estimating right now I I thought Hudson might uh he looked like he might respond but six months I asked five other people who aren't core devs yeah it's six months is still the thing that I've heard but I there's a full acknowledgment for me that I haven't looked past the merge I don't I don't even know like I I'm aware of the road map but the merge for me has been like the Pinnacle and as a matter of fact like I'm taking six weeks off after this

and then I'll come back and figure out what's going on yeah so you don't care about ethereum [Laughter] as long as my marketing agency keeps tweeting I don't care what happened supervisors put his time in it I remember the last time people talked about that uh the estimation time is like six months if we want to prioritize the withdrawal or without adding the 4844 but I think yeah if we want to add some extra work especially like four way full form it might take longer maybe in nine months yeah this is what I remember it depends if those two things are

bundled together or not and I'm not here right I'm not sure the latest on whether they they are going to be bundled together I guess they're still figuring it out last I looked okay yeah and I guess since good oh I was just gonna say um one reason I've heard and I'm curious your thoughts on this Fizz is um a reason to try to accelerate and not bundle is because we want withdrawals so that we can um do kind of a reset like there's a lot of stake that's been centralized right now and it feels like um things haven't quite settled and hopefully in a post withdrawal world people are like withdrawing from more

centralized seeking providers and redeploying in order to like uh decrease their you know like the risk of some sort of correlated slashing type of event and so maybe a reason to do this earlier if we can is for decentralization of of staking reasons what do you think of this yeah I think the first reason that withdrawals have to be prioritized is kind of the the ethical reason of you're holding people's money and and they you have an ethical obligation to get it back to them as soon as you're able to um and regarding the decentralization vector I think it really depends how the The Tide is Flowing because the desire for decentralization comes

and grows it Ebbs and flows sometimes it's high and sometimes it's low and so right now I I have a sense that the desire for decentralization is increasing um and I think that tornado cash effect sanctions really helped with that but let's say in six months people become complacent again uh let's say a new LSD provider comes up that's bright and shiny and people are dumping truckloads of money into it uh it will maybe change that that calculus P people don't seem to uh commit to their beliefs regarding decentralization they're more swayed by Financial outcomes yeah I hear that too

um one other thing that has come up or I have a question about is uh layer twos well some layer twos experience outages have you guys seen any you know communication around this they shouldn't Ave is pausing just because of people doing like liquidity Shenanigans with like the each power trade and other stupid stuff but like I mean all a layer two is is an app on the layer one so it's in the app layer it shouldn't be interrupted uh I mean I'm just a podcaster though so there's a there is a chart that shows which ones are going to be interrupted and which ones won't do to the merge and I need yeah there's like a chart someone made I'm gonna find it I don't know if it's real yeah I thought this was a

thing so basically because there's so many kinds of L2 stuff there there are you know various um you know ways that you know they need to pause or interrupt because of the way their fraud proofs work or you know people doing weird Shenanigans during it um so let me find it and we can go on to something else while I look for it well um just a quick Refresh on the something else officially this is someone's idea they say one hour of downtime or more during merges ZK sync optimism and Arboretum have no downtime and uh Arboretum Nova rather

than Arboretum one Loop ring star Arboretum Arboretum Arboretum oh my God Alice area flower garden okay Arboretum yeah I would imagine if it's unknown the answer is no downtime but I could be wrong this this is the tweet I saw but I don't know how reliable this is um yeah sources sources say sources I made it up all right David I I know uh I'm gonna go take a rest sadly we cannot stream this forward we cannot stream this non-stop for eight more hours right uh I'm gonna eat cat food take a nap yeah yeah and get back after it uh

so what time we could spin this up again if we wanted to later on how is everyone sleeping like are you actually like getting sound sleep I probably won't sleep don't ask me about myself David's sleep is so messed up yeah you guys do you use the word at all have you ever no but I have a smart smart mattress pad that tells me like every time I wake up from like at five a.m I had that yeah my mattress tells me hey hey I bet you're feeling not very well rested I'm like I [ __ ] know I woke up uh nothing has changed my ability to improve my sleep Habits Like the aura has um oh we're streaming I should get paid for that yeah or a sponsored bankless

all right so latest time is 147 a.m East and that's been pretty steady for the lake since we started this stream how how early ahead of time will the EF stream start the EF YouTube stream start oh that's a great so it's that we're actually opening it up two hours two hours ahead two hours before and it's one hour for the pixel painting party oh we need to bring this up and then what we can close out of that one hour for the painting pixel painting party one hour for pre-call and then 30 minutes to an hour for post call okay um but the pixel painting party um what is that that's a really great opportunity so uh poepp has a product called poet dot art or poet art canvases

um and so if you have the right poapps you can go and um drop pixels on a canvas to create an image and um let me see if I can get that link as well real quick but it's a really great opportunity to improve brand awareness for uh yeah there we go oh cool but if you if you look um if you Google for poet art canvas you'll see some from historical events that are really um really cool uh yeah there we go so I'm not sure what event that one is from but hey we all get to just paint with pixels

with our Pops this is cool this is yeah well so your base like you get your whole Community together to um kind of fight for pixels there's another one look at that whoa I didn't even we didn't even know that that's pretty cool and so Patricia was actually printed and shipped some of these but they and they'll there will be a a compressed video showing the creation of it uh it's just kind of a neat thing it's neat that's neat I like that a lot but yeah you ought to uh especially with the group you have here that's a good opportunity to get them together and they would want to contact logic Beach and he kind of helps people find a good area so that everyone's not on top of

each other lots of the beaches in the chat right now yeah he's in YouTube yeah so you're telling me that logic Beach is a the coordinator coordinator okay so I looked into the YouTube and I see him saying coordinate nice superfizz so recap for us so uh what so what are those events that people can look forward to so again thankless bankless stream is probably going down temporarily where we go take naps we go eat some dinner we go get prepped for tonight it looks like East Coast time this thing is happening anytime between 1am and possibly 4 a.m all right that's kind of our window but of course go to

those same it's like worst possible time for East Coast but like enjoy everyone else in different time zones uh and then at that time I think you were saying super Fizz about an hour or two hours before the merge date uh festivities start yet again we might have some streams on Bank list in the meanwhile depends how much energy we have uh and if we're up or not but what is what is happening with kind of the official ethereum Community streams yeah so two hours before TTD um and I encourage you to go to uh that EF channel uh video and hit notify me so you'll know as soon as we go live um that's when the painting party starts it's an hour

um I I would really encourage you guys to come there because we'll be common doing commentary on the canvas uh and so it is a great opportunity to make bankless a part of that canvas um that that'll be one hour and then the next hour will be the actual like this is the merge call until TTD and then one hour after that will be essentially waiting for finalization and then the Q a great so where do we get on that notification that YouTube notifications click video uh which one uh that's the awesome videos yeah that's the thing I've had trouble getting it to uh it doesn't show until it starts live streaming so you kind of just need the link let me go put a link

in chat Link in chat we'll we'll tweet out some links uh bankless Nation so from everything yeah Bank list newsletter uh Monday if anyone's bored between now and the merge nevermind as like a team in an organization start at 24 hour merge live stream where they're having different people come in every hour and talk about the merge and other stuff so just look up nevermind on um Twitter I'm gonna join at some points during the next 24 hours probably like 12 midnight my time Central Time so yeah that's awesome yeah bankless is not quite as dedicated as another mine so uh get to have a live stream uh David anything else before we

sign off oh thanks everyone this has been an insanely populated uh stream so thank you everyone watching on the YouTube We definitely hit over a thousand a couple times and also uh the Inner Circle here in the in the zoom chat with us thank you guys for being paid subscribers to bankless um if you are not a subscriber to the YouTube hit subscribe if you're not a paid subscriber after you become a subscriber to YouTube become a paid subscriber um and that's my only show for the day also David what do we have upcoming on Bank list so yeah we're gonna be it probably it's a few hours in the morning it's a long gonna be a long 24 hours so yeah yeah and then what are we doing tomorrow after the after the merge event yeah so we'll be here at the EF on the

EF channel for the actual merge uh me super Fizz hello super Fizz he's doing the marathon with us as well uh and Anthony cesano are going to do a post merge recap 9 A.M eastern time tomorrow morning as after the dust clears after the blocks finalize after ethereum breaks and then comes back uh we will talk about what happened and then that'll be we'll have a lot of clarity on that and then Ryan and I for the first time ever are also going to live stream the merge section of the weekly roll up uh so uh bankless bankless listeners that are inside of the zoom chat here we're real going inside out on Bank list lately being real transparent

with how we like make the content of the sausages made so we're going to live stream the the merge section of the weekly roll up tomorrow after that uh and then after that we're gonna probably take a nap yeah and then early next week we have Danny Brian and Tim Baco I think coming on for an episode and then after that uh vitality and we'll get his kind of high level take on things too so a lot more merch content coming we ain't done yet just getting started yeah we can start that we haven't even merged yet it's all pregame guys enjoy the pregame all right we'll see your pregame yeah thanks JJ thanks super Fizz thanks Hudson hi JJ take care everyone see you guys