Ethereum, Solana or Bitcoin: how OSF weighs the three majors after the ETH ETF launch

Transcript

between the three Majors what are you putting it into right now I actually think Bitcoin looks like the best major of the three and I've historically never said this GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show that's more addictive than a game of snake on your old noia phone I'm your host Jay Hamilton and it's eth week this week we've got daily episodes to build your investment thesis around eth so you can constantly explain to your wife or your husband why eth is one of the largest Holdings in your portfolio here to guide us today is one of the best crypto investors in the game and co-founder of wrecked Brands oie who first bought eth at

1,500 oie welcome back to the show thanks for having me Jay it's good to good to be back let's start with there's before we jump into eth we got a lot to talk about around eth and that's the focus of the week but eth isn't the only thing in the market and there's a lot of other things happening in the market this week that we haven't touched on and I would love to get your thoughts so we had uh on Wednesday we had uh Mount gaau was it Wednesday or Tuesday Mount gaau uh did a distribution of 2.5 billion so we're seeing Mount gaw's money flow back to their creditors we had the NASDAQ 100 fall 3% most it's fallen in a year and a half we had some bad earnings reports from Tesla and I can't remember who else which might have been what caused this

nzq to fall and then today we had GDP from the US data come in and Q2 did very well was up two at 2.8% up from 1.4% in the first quarter uh we have continued political uncertainty that's no surprise to anybody that one uh when you step back when you look at all these things that are happening right now how do you analyze them and then take that data and think about your Investments yeah there's a lot going on right now isn't there there's a lot going on you mentioned a few different things stocks politics Mount goau we had Germany selling all the various crypto developments EF there's a lot going on for me I think you have to focus on the

things that are the most important for crypto and possibly for markets and right now I think that's probably the elections to be honest with you I think Trump going out there and saying he's Pro Bitcoin and all these rumors surfacing of them potentially announcing Bitcoin as a strategic Reserve asset for the US I mean that's just huge that's massive that's bigger and dwarfs any of the other news flows that we have out there at the moment right like the US owns 210 um thousand Bitcoins right that's like1 13 billion dollar and they're one of the largest holders of of bit 1% of the global supply of Bitcoin basically right exactly yeah it's it's huge so if

you're business-minded like Trump is and this is not a any political support I'm just you know talking about the um the path of motion here but if you're business-minded you you may look at that and think okay cool well all I have to do is like announce some positive things for Bitcoin make declare it a strategic Reserve asset not sell it at least immediately not sell it and if Bitcoin does a two or 3x now I've made you know $26 billion do right like it's it's crazy and if if we're the first major country to do it another countes start following we'll have a massive strategic Head Start over everyone and be in a great place and maybe that's how is thinking about it and that's how I would think about it they have an opportunity to actually do something um pretty

special and they are already positioned for it at zero cost it's really a great opportunity for them so I just think that's like the market is underplaying it not pricing it in people are not focused on it maybe people don't believe it's actually going to happen maybe people don't believe what Trump is saying maybe we need to hear the announcement at at um the Bitcoin conference on Sunday we don't you know it's all smoking mirrors right now but that's those are the kind of things I just think are so so important because these are like potential structural changes for crypto and if you have a world where you know the government is pro crypto and you have a world where Gary Gan is out and maybe Hester Pier is in and the SEC and they deregulate um and and pull back and what they've done

it really changes the landscape for things and it opens you know we already have the ETF products there and ready right there's a Bitcoin ETF there's Neath ETF and now if institutions feel more comfortable about investing in it because politics is done a u-turn the government's done a U-turn and Regulators done a u-turn on crypto it really could open the floodgates and for me that's what I'm mostly focused on just trying to ignore all this other noise that we're seeing right now that's affecting prices so so when the when the stock market has such a big drop like it did you don't you don't put a lot of concern towards the impact of that on crypto I don't think so I mean look the the headlines are NASDAQ drops three and a half percent the most since October 22

and headlines like that are very alarming but um you know it dropped three and a half% yesterday and it's up what 20% on the year and we've just had a period of you know hitting new all-time high I think we've had the most consecutive all-time highs hit ever this year and stocks have just been up only so at some point you're going to get a correction you're going to get a pullback and something like Tesla reporting weak earnings is a perfect opportunity for people to you know take profits in the trade but you know if you look at crypto so it actually outperformed the moving stocks yesterday it's actually outperformed the moving stocks um for the past few days which makes a change because it's felt like the other way around for most of this year so I think

the tide is turning there a little bit and yeah you have to be concerned because if you have a sustained selloff in Risk assets of course that will affect crypto but what's the reason for that selloff the only real reason I can see is like bad Tesla earnings and perhaps some like you know over positioning and and some of the stuff and then you know we just we just see a pullback I don't see like a real fundamental reason that spooked the market as to why we sold off let's jump over to eth now we're all excited about the EF launching this week and price eth price has not performed well what are your thoughts on that did you expect that do you think that's part for the course here there was a lot of apprehension going into these EFS I mean

at first they were never going to approve it then we got the surprise approvals and I think people have just been scared that the ether's been trading so poorly this year and losing its narrative that I think people were so scared that bad you know flow data could really send it lower and I think people were skeptical going into it I actually thought day one we had over a billion dollars in volume and you had $17 million inflow I thought those were good numbers and that was despite like a 5% decrease in in the grayscale um eth ETF so I thought those numbers were good and the eth price did okay it was kind of like unchanged unfortunately yesterday was the day where you had that big NASDAQ

sell off right so retail aren't going to just buy e THS on on that day so it was a kind of like unfortunate timing and the price hasn't hasn't done that well but I think it's too early to make a judgment like Bitcoin had the same thing Bitcoin ETFs um were slow to get off the ground and the price of Bitcoin dropped like 12 to 15% after the announcement and it was then when we started to see inflows over the next few weeks where the price really started to climb and I think that's possible for eth at the end of the day BlackRock has a tokenized ethereum fund Larry fin has publicly said that his bullish on eth and I think there's a strong pitch there to be made for eth to ETF um investors we just have to be a bit more patient but I can

understand the frustrations I mean I've I ear a lot of eth um alongside so and that eth trade has been the most frustrating one this year and I think a lot of people feel like throwing in the town after something supposedly so bullish has happened and the price just moves lower so you're still equally bullish on eth nothing has changed from a fundamental perspective in your mind and I will just kind of double click on your mention of the grayscale fund and eth's outflows which I think we're as of the end of day yesterday I think we were at like uh 8% I think of the total fund has now outflowed uh and so maybe even 9% so it's actually happening quite quickly

in my mind I don't know what you're expected how how long you expect that to take maybe if we look at gbtc it took like I think a month or two yeah gbtc took like a month or two um they had much larger Holdings proportionally I think than than we had we seen eth I reckon after a couple of weeks we see most of that outflow done um I'm still bullish on eath but one thing I would caveat this with is I think if we don't see material inflows in the first few weeks like and let's say four or five weeks I think I would finally change my view you know like I've I've personally been quite frustrated by what's happened with e this year and the narrative for it to it for me is

weakening and you know in my head I'm like oh is this is the point at which I sell it will finally be the point where it goes a lot higher and R A lot higher um but after the CTF there isn't really any other major Catalyst that I think are that positive for eth so if eth can't if the eth ETF can't obtain some sort of beta to the Bitcoin ETS and can't regain some sort of beta to bitcoin and E BTC doesn't climb higher as a result of like flows then I think you know my thing is always like if he doesn't if you have a long-term trade and in a six months that hasn't really worked out um you have to ask yourself why and think about other things and I would really consider like rebalance ing

more into soul I think um at the risk of doing that at the ratio which is about the highest at the moment but um we'll see hopefully we see we uh we see the flows come in the next few weeks and it starts to perform what would you consider good flows in the next few weeks within four weeks I'd love to see something like one and a half to2 billion dollar of inflow I don't know if that number is a bit high or not maybe it's a bit high but I was thinking you know if we could average like 50 to 100 million every day for a month that would be a really strong number I think I think that' be a really strong number and I think that would make a difference on e i that would like really make a difference on the

price and I think it's doable just eyeballing these numbers I think it's doable you know I think it's doable but if you have if you don't if you get very negligible inflows and maybe even outflows if you know nothing comes to offset the eth outflows the grayscale outflows then it starts to look a little bit challenging because you know it's precarious you know eth is precarious people are already sitting there like myself just a little bit edgy and kg and worried about it and I think I'm sure a lot of people exited it yesterday you know or in the last two days let me ask you this you've got some let's say you've got some money sitting on the sidelines right now or you're looking to you're not looking to reallocate you

know because that's a that's a bigger decision to come out of something especially something like East but let's say you got some money sitting on the sidelines between the three Majors what are you putting it into right now I actually think Bitcoin looks like the best major of the three and I've historically never said this and I actually don't own any Bitcoin okay and on top of that I'm saying this with Bitcoin dominance at 56.25% so almost the highest it's been for a long time but I just think you know what could eth do here what could Soul do here the cycle you can maybe get like a two or 3x out of them like if it does really well but I think Bitcoin could still

make that kind of a move in this cycle and I think if the US goes out there and makes if Trump goes out there and makes Bitcoin a strategic Reserve asset that's specifically a positive thing for Bitcoin and we saw how the market reacted this year to something that was specifically positive for Bitcoin which is the ETFs Bitcoin dominance just went higher so and obviously your downside on bitcoin is like much better than your downside on eth or Soul or anything else so if we are late in the cycle and things turn South you're a bit more insulated there and I think Bitcoin could just turn into its own thing so I don't know I'm finding myself at an ex existential crisis right now because I've always been like you know by the riskier things by the stuff that's high beta but upside downside I'm

starting to feel today for the first time in a long time and admittedly late to the party that Bitcoin actually looks like potentially the best of the three and I don't know what I'm going to do um I'm just I'm just praying we see some eth inflows and and eth BTC goes back high again and maybe I'll swap but I can tell that like you can't even believe what's coming out of your mouth as you're saying this like your facial expression is like you're confused but you're like yeah I can't this is what I'm saying okay so what would be your expectations give us some like time frames what would be your expectations um in terms of like you pick the time frame one month I don't know how you think of time frames one

week 6 months 12 months whatever time frame works best for you and let's talk about some uh targets around I would love to talk about I was actually just gonna ask this question for eth because it's eth week and that's what we're really focused on but this conversation has kind of gone moreor in a different direction which is totally fine we've talked a ton about eth all week so maybe maybe we want to talk more about Bitcoin or maybe we want to talk more about Soul or maybe you want to do all three it's a lot to do all three so you don't have to do all three but I would love to understand like what you are think for alltime highs in this cycle and then more and even better like what are you thinking for sell Target because alltime high is such a bad number nobody how

many people actually get to sell at alltime high not many right so what are you thinking for sell Target and like planning around exiting in this cycle the important time frame right now for me is the next six months maybe even 5 months because that wraps around the elections so you know November will have the US elections we'll find out the result into that into those elections things will become clearer such as you know Trump's crypto policy whether the Democrats changed their tune on crypto and there's been some rumors around camela Harris this week as well maybe she's attending Bitcoin Nashville yeah yeah I think I think she finally yeah I think she finally denied it well

they finally denied yeah but I don't know who knows I mean we're just we're just getting like you know Second Source information there but um I think uh we'll get a lot of information around that in the buildup to the elections and then after the elections we'll have a result and then we'll know what the future of crypto looks like after that so I think um things get priced in I think things are starting to get priced in but I think things generally get priced in and so my expectation is that maybe the elections become like some sort of a sell the news type event and um we see like the Bitcoin high or whether it should be around that like October November time um if Trump is still heading the polls and what should that

number be where can it get to I think realistically perhaps something like 100k I think um I think if it being a strategic Reserve asset is is real and on the cards I think you get to potentially 100K and um that's where I would feel like I want to start taking some off I think if Trump gets elected if they go out and carry out these policies and they really deregulate crypto then you could have an extended and prolonged bu run in 2025 specifically for the asset class things could go a lot lot higher but we don't know what the execution will look like we don't have enough information there we don't even know if they will go and execute on it and we don't know the probability there so I don't want to like play that risk if that makes sense so I would say you know Bitcoin 100K for

eth that's probably you know before I would say for eth like seven or 8K I'm now feeling like that number is probably something like five or 6K and I think Soul still pretty bullish there I think it could be you know 300 400 area um so these are all much lower targets than I've talked about in the past but just looking at numbers that's where I think things could get to with Bitcoin actually leading and outperforming and those are levels where I would take a decent chunk off the table and maybe like 50 or 60% of risk and then still keep like a decent position for next year just in case they do go out and execute on these things and you see this crazy crazy you know parabolic run which is always possible but

you don't need your full stack for that you know you have to you have to not get too greedy and learn when to take profits and you know I could be wrong on these and for me it's it's less about the price and more about like that's my Catalyst and whether it works or doesn't work I'm probably going to take some ships off the table then I think I mean the key thing that you're saying that I hope all of our listeners focus on is you have your plan and you know what you're going to do for your Investments you're not following somebody else you're not opening Twitter and seeing hey this is going to the moon and so I'm going to ride it up no you have your plan and you know what you're comfortable with that makes sense for your financial objectives and that's

that's really what the key is it's I feel like we got we got you on a bearish day today which is uh not OB every day it's I like it though to be honest this is It's there's too much over the toop bullish stuff in when in the space crypto Twitter everybody to the Moon bull bu bull bull and look yeah there's a lot of reasons to be bullish right now but it's good to get a balanced perspective so I I actually really appreciate uh what you're bringing today before we jump over I want to talk a little bit about uh wrecked Brands and a big announcement that you guys had coming out of there but before we do any final thoughts uh to share on your views on the market right now I actually you know what final thoughts and then I gotta ask uh anything else that you're

always in some funky meme coin or something I've never heard of so I also got to ask what you're doing there yeah General thoughts I may have come across a bit conservative or bearish um I'm still really bullish you know like I just want to reiterate like don't fade what's happening with um with us politics and what that could mean for crypto it's very big and it's very important um but you know have your targets and realize this stuff eventually gets priced in meme coins and stuff you know I've been pretty quiet on that front really like I've I've I've been tracking a few different things over the last few days and every time I want to go and buy something I decide not to and it drops about 50% and my observation is like I think people are

just chopping themselves up quite a lot right now and I'm I'm sticking to sticking to the larger market cap stuff I'm sticking to the width that I have I think that's a good lever play on salana I think that could do really well um own a lot of mog which I think we mentioned last time and that kind of climbed close to getting to a billion dollar market cap I think that's a good um uh good meme play as well that's kind of been little a little bit tied to eth but starting to come into its own as well so those are the two big meme coin positions that I have that I think um have proven they can survive these dips and and come out with them um and I still think mem coins will do well you know I think they'll I think they'll do

well but you have to really keep your ears to the ground there and figure out you know what you need to be in because it's very hot potato like uh price action there yeah which uh is the key thing to know is if you're going to get imun coins be prepared to be very much more active than you need to be in the majors which so many investors don't realize that and then it's just gambling you're not really smart investing at that point uh let's jump over to W Brands and the wed guy nft uh what the f something is brewing right now is what I'm seeing all over your Twitter uh I don't that is probably a separate thing that's coming up let's talk first about

what happened uh I don't know if it it's sometime in the past month I can't remember exct when you guys did this but you gifted Equity to your W guy nft holders first project I know of that is given Equity to nft Holders tell us why did you do this and what outcome are you hoping to achieve here yeah look I think um in 2021 you had a lot of nft projects that raised a ton of capital and then had investors to drive value to and the way they did that was just to sell more nfts to the collectors and consumers and they ended up diluting their Collections and um it just became a conflict of interest like who are you driving value to and I think there was this misconception by nft collectors that

they were like getting equity in the business or that their nft should behave the way that businesses behave and the answer is they didn't really all they did was create a ton of brand and IP but it was tough to like Drive the value to that um so we you know we're doing a lot with Rec Brands which is a kind of like a spin-off of the re guy nft project and we've made Rec drinks and all that kind of stuff and you know I was thinking if that if this does really well if we really nail it with Rec bands and make it into a big thing how do the original nft holders benefit well maybe the rec gu nfts go higher on like a Sentimental trade maybe they don't like who really knows but it would be great if there could be like some kind of mechanical

way where the nft holders could benefit from the upside of this and now you run to all sorts of issues there with Securities Law and all that kind of stuff and it's difficult to do but what we did was we took a a snapshot in the past of our nft holders and then granted Equity through a crowdfunding exemption in the US and now everyone has like a piece of the pie and every supporter that we had got some equity for free so if we go out there and do really well with Rec Brands everyone's now a part of it they own a piece of it and if we end up selling it one day people will actually get paid and will'll get real money um for that so the real idea was like you know how do we just like bring in supporters along for the ride in this new Venture

that we're taking and something that we decided after the fact and this was the solution to it and it was a long process it took us about six months to do an execute and finally complete but we're we're there now and I feel good about it and um you know I hope I hope these guys can benefit from what we're doing and obviously you long process expensive process as well did you come at this from the perspective of like just this was the right thing to do or did you have some business analysis that told you this could bring more value to the business as well I think it was first and foremost a Sentimental thing it was we really felt like you

know we're giving something up here to our community but at the same time it's like well you know one of the hardest aspects of starting any consumer facing business is marketing how do you get a community how do you get marketing and we just felt like you know we have 3,500 nft holders we felt like if we could just give all these guys some Equity it kind of turns them into this like marketing Force right like everyone's like oh now I own a piece of this company I feel pretty die hard about this I'm going to Shi these drinks from the shield and have you noticed that like since abely yeah absolutely yeah I mean our community is pretty strong anyway but it feels Turbo Charge It Feels energized now and it feels good

cuz now it's like we go out them we report really good strong drink sales the the tune changes from oh that's great you guys just sold a bunch of more products to your collectors to okay you guys sold a bunch of products some people bought them and but now these guys own a piece of this business and they're like great the B some of this this company that I own a piece of is now doing well and that's a big change in narrative I feel how much Equity did you give we put up um 10% of the company and about 5% of it was claimed which I thought was interesting so um yeah I think there's probably a lot of well there's probably a lot of w guy nfts and dead wallets and stuff that I think just had no idea I also think you know in

doing this we had a full kyc process you had to submit documents and so I think probably a lot of people didn't want to docs um but it was an interesting startat to see about half of them got claimed I think have you set any expectations around what they can expect as Equity holders dividends uh communication in reporting yeah we haven't really communicated any expectations yet I think I'm I'm very um probably a good idea yeah I'm very big fan of under promise and overd deliver but um look we have uh an investor portal now that everyone is part of we're able to communicate things through that um and you know I would love to be able to like report our numbers every quarter or

every or annual reports whatever it is um that we decide to do and get these guys involved and included in in in you know um the plans where it's appropriate I think I love it Uh something's Brewing can you tell us what's brewing can you give us any any Alpha on this and for those who have no idea what I'm talking about can you just actually explain what why I'm saying something's Brewing yeah so our our rec drink's Twitter account has been has uh has posted a video an animated video and it says something is brewing and the video is of a rat guy at a computer screen cracks open a can has a drink of it and then he ends up in this like big Treasure Cove whatever and then then the

scene cuts out basically um I can't tell you exactly what's brewing um what I can tell is you'll you know people will find out in the next few days and weeks so i' would strongly recommend keeping up to Taz with the the r drinks Twitter account but I think um you know we've been thinking about how we go to market with r drinks and how you make it different to just a regular drinks business how you make it different to just a regular nft business and I think we found a unique way to go about doing this and we'll be launching that in you know in the next few days and weeks so we'll see how it goes it's very experimental and everything we're doing here is very experimental um but you know we're just uh swinging the bat and see if we seeing if we can hit the

ball it's all you can do show up and take your shot and I respect anybody who takes the shot so uh Obie thank you so much for joining the show today again and uh yeah what a what a interesting show we had that was really we got all over the place and talked about a lot of things I I I agree that it you were conservative not bearish I shouldn't have used the word bearish you were concerned I'm usually so bullish that every time I'm not so bullish people just think get Obie thanks so much joining again everybody thanks for listening in have a wicked awesome day thank you for listening to milk Road radio the easiest path to get smarter about crypto if you like this episode share it and hit subscribe or follow so you don't miss

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