Ethereum momentum and whether history is repeating, with Lark Davis

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show that's more satisfying than popping bubble wrap on a stressful afternoon I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by legendary crypto investor Lark Davis in today's episode we are talking all about eth why you should be paying close attention to eth right now we're going to cover ethereum's price action what you can expect in the coming weeks and months December and heading into 2025 we're going to look at a comparison of eth and Bitcoin and their price action in the previous cycle in order to see is the pattern repeating itself and then lar is going to give us his eth price

predictions for the rest of this cycle these are updated price predictions that he just came up with recently before we jump in milroad is hiring right now if you guys are obsessed with crypto and you want to work on one of the funnest teams in the space check out the link in the show notes to apply to a few of our open roles also we need to take a moment to hear from our sponsors who make the show possible meanwhile is the world's first licensed and regulated life insurance company built for the Bitcoin economy they do everything in BTC you pay in BTC they pay claims to your family in BTC you take out policy loans entirely in BTC when you need liquidity protect your family from life's uncertainty and a broken Financial

system build intergenerational Bitcoin wealth while the cost of living skyrockets in dollar terms plus get all the tax and legal benefits of life insurance now in Bitcoin visit milkroom meanwhile to join the wait list and get early access to the world's first Bitcoin life insurance Lark welcome back to the show thanks for having me back it is a exciting time for ethereum I say that with a little bit of hesitation because we've all been waiting for eth to finally go and we're seeing we're seeing it a little bit we're certainly not seeing it as much as some of the other l1s that are absolutely flying right now which we might touch on later in the show but I

think eth is looking good and more exciting than people realize H and there's a tweet I want to pull up right now that I think demonstrates that pretty well this is from Ryan rasmusen over at bitwise he said ethereum added an entire Salon in market cap over the past 30 days Lark what's going on here so Lana of course has been doing fantastic xrp went up $150 billion dollar in the last uh four weeks it's been a pretty wild run for some of these big layer ones but eth is still the king daddy of layer 2 or of layer one smart contract platforms right so it's pretty hard to say that eth is done and dusted

and I know the price action for a while was very lackluster obviously we were all there we were dogging on ethereum we're having a good time making jokes but the reality of the matter is that eth is still one of the most intensely awesome assets of the entire crypto space to think that it was going to stay down forever was ridiculous of course it was going to start moving at some point we're seeing that happening and because it is such a big asset it moves a lot slower these days you know xrp was able to pump 500% because it was starting from $30 billion or whatever the market cap was at before the big pump started for perspective it was oneth of the market cap of ethereum when it started

moving okay so you have to keep in mind total market cap size these assets eth's a beast eth's absolutely massive and it is slowly grinding up for a very big move because all the fundamentals are still there it's still a very strong asset for a wide variety of reasons from the layer two scene from the amount of Stak eth that's been staked up uh the amount of eth leaving exchanges the just growing demand for ethereum because of all the layer 2 stuff happening right the eth ETFs which are starting to actually see inflows in fact last week we had more inflows into eth ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs now we're not talking about gigantic numbers there it was very slow

week for Bitcoin ETFs which have had some record weeks in previous weeks before that but still Wall Street starting to wake up to ethereum ETF products and they're starting to buy them so everything's lining up right now for eth price to keep moving yeah it's looking so good you mentioned the ETF I got the numbers up on the screen here 332 million in net inflows on November 29th into the ETF that is a number worth EX worth celebrating we have not seen that much volume into the ETF at all in a day so far since it launched very very promising and all net positive inflows for over a week into the

ETF and I think grayscale is really that's finally done and behind us I think uh the the grayscale eth E trust but yeah things are looking really good let's you mentioned and I just want to bring this chart back up that the salana market cap uh sorry the eth market cap has basically gotten salana in the last 30 days it is amazing it's just the size of this token I think it's it's hard to appreciate how much needs to happen in order for it to move so we look at like a month ago market cap for eth was around 290 billion market cap for soul 75 billion fast forward to today eth has gone up to almost 440 billion so it's

gone up more than a 100 billion and salon's gone up about 30 billion it's it's wild to see these numbers I mean eth is doing well it's looking good but we're just not quite seeing it in the price yet that's for perspective that's almost the entirety of the xrp move in terms of market cap game right it's just that eth say starting at such a higher market cap to begin with that it doesn't have the same excitement around it right we've seen eth bump 40% or something like that in the last month very exciting but these other assets are of course playing catchup a lot of these things were much more beaten down you know the sentiment around stuff like xrp was like absolute Gutter and then of course price price always improves sentiment doesn't it the one the one the

one thing that'll always tell you how good the technology is the price gone up at the Technologies fantastic price down worst Tech ever terrible blockchain never gonna do anything right we heard all this about ethereum just a few weeks ago now price is going up Suddenly oh crap this is the new paradigm money isn't it this is the big blockchain it was so obvious never change crypto never change never change okay let's look at um some technical analysis and you put out a tweet the other day saying that eth is currently on the cusp of what you believe is a breakout can you can you break down and explain what you're seeing here to us this is like the most watched triangle in crypto right now

this is something I've been talking about for a while now that bottom line the bottom Orange Line there I think is incredibly important because this has been the uptrend support line that's been in place since mid 2022 okay when we found the bottom B for the price there ever since then we have been on a Non-Stop uptrend where with massive volatility eth keeps putting in higher lows the uptrend continues when you see that line break at some point that'll be Bad News Bears but that's not happening right now what's happening right now is that we are on the cusp of a major breakout you see the top orange line on this chart that is multi-year downtrend that's in play here when that

breaks that signals a major change to the trend right so this is all the way back from the peak price of late 2021 we saw of course the earlier rally this year and just this gigantic triangle forming up with explosive potential now that's not to say we're going to break out of this tomorrow we might consolidate under here we might have a false breakout stuff like that okay so this is pretty normal we have a breakout of such a major pattern like this however however it will break it will break and the upside targets for this are absolutely massive you know we're talking the first of course getting back to previous highs obviously taking out 4,800 bucks but also then

moving beyond that so this is a massive massive triangle right here and this thing is going to break and when this thing breaks it's probably going to drag the rest of the altcoin market up massively along with it so don't fade e guys I know it's not going to be the same kind of sexy gains that you're going to get out of your xrp although you know xrp right now is probably do for a bit of consolidation but I know there are other coins out there that are going to potentially make bigger gains right your beta plays so yeah Pepe if look if when eth goes to 10K Pepe is probably gonna do 10x right so there's other plays but is there anything out there that's sort of in terms of risk adjusted you know for especially for bigger players or people who don't want

to take as much risk gambling on Meme coins or some of the other ethereum beta plays I mean my goodness you can buy eth and get probably 300% returns in the next six to 12 months if it hits the price targets that I think that it can and I want to touch on those price targets but before we do we'll come back to that um what could be the Catalyst that would make eth breakout of this pattern that it's been in for a few years gosh there's a lot of things going on right now of course just the General market sentiment obviously has shifted dramatically we've seen a risk on attitude come into crypto that hasn't been seen literally in years know we had some kind of like tiny little taste of it back in March but it wasn't real this

is a completely different vibe right now we've got a pro crypto uh White House that's about to come in that's going to be a game Cher in fact there's rumors that the SEC head has been decided on by Trump still to be officially announced but people are saying who know things like yeah he's already decided this is going to be the guy some Pro crypto guy so everything kind of lines up we've got M2 money supply expected to increase dramatically throughout 2025 we're in a bit of a a dip right now on that but that's going to bounce back up according to Major analysts so we're going to see that move into the end of 2025 with money flooding into the system stable coin supplies going up Bas base has had the most inflows of all the blockchains

in the last month okay everyone's going there to ape their money into these new AI agents which are particularly finding a good home on base right now so when you go to base guess what you need you need ethereum you don't need a lot of ethereum to use base but you need eth you need eth right so everything lines up as a good picture for eth and of course the big one is going to be the ETFs right as we see imagine the stink out there on social media when we have a billion doll inflow day for a theum ETFs because for an asset that's only worth $400 billion dollar a billion dollar daily buy if it happens a few times like it has for Bitcoin that becomes a very very big momentum impact okay because already

we're seeing the supply of ethon exchanges dropping dramatically 30 to 40% I'm not sure what the current number is of eth is staked in the staking contract which of course is a two-year exit que if they want to get all that eth out of there so it's all these things that line up and they've been there for a while it just takes that that spark and it's like they're trying to start the engine you you ever try to start like an old lawn mower and you're there you're pulling on the Chain you're pulling on the Chain you're pulling why this damn thing start you know spr B throw a bit gas on it pulling it again it's like eventually it starts and a bunch of smoke comes out it's like yeah let's go that's eth right now that's e going it's gonna go man it's gonna go

let's let's take a look at some uh uh some some charts from the past cycle uh because I want to look at Bitcoin and eth in the past cycle to understand uh the comparisons to this cycle where we're at where we could be going because it's always great you know history doesn't repeat itself but it usually Rhymes uh let me pull up first uh Bitcoin uh from the past cycle so I've got Bitcoin up on the screen here uh we're looking at sort of at the point where it broke out in the last cycle was around November of TW of 2020 uh what what is what is that say to you that date why is that important so the important thing to keep

in mind here is that that came about six months after the Bitcoin having so tends to happen around six months afterwards start getting a good move the the key thing here around the Bitcoin breakout and related to the ethereum breakout is the timing between them so we saw Bitcoin breakout first Bitcoin always leads Bitcoin leads the liquidity cycle okay interest flows into Bitcoin first money flows into Bitcoin first Bitcoin moves first and then bit Bitcoin money draws in attention first and foremost people start talking about Bitcoin then everybody us to buy the next Bitcoin or other stuff that has more upside just more broadly Bitcoin whales start taking profits they take their money from that run to bitcoin and they dump it down to

eth and they double their money and then move it down again and double their money again that's kind of the idea until you run out of stuff to do that with so that Bitcoin move back in late 2020 a lot of great catalysts a lot of great catalysts push that forward but the key thing to note is that on the breakout of 20K the definitive breakout not the we barely touched it or came a few dollars over it and then little correction no no the actual breakout of 20K which happened I think first week of December or something like that essentially you saw Bitcoin run non-stop for about um 4 to six weeks something like that before we had any even kind of breather finally come in but here's the

thing if ethereum lagged in fact at the time that Bitcoin broke out ethereum was about 60% under the previous all-time high and it needed to go about 140% up just to reach the previous all-time high not even to talk about price Discovery so ethereum was lagging significantly and if you were around back then the sentiment was also pretty bad oh look at eth it's a failed asset it was a one trick pony we had the Ico and defi summer with just a bunch of Ponzi scam BS and there's no real use case for E look Bitcoin proves it bitcoin's going up the market only wants Bitcoin people only want Bitcoin everything else is a scam obviously E's

the biggest scam of all it's never going to go up BL does this sound familiar because it's exactly the sentiment that's been happening over the last few weeks okay it's exact sentiment happened back then eth is just lagging behind Okay it now is eth going to give you a 100x return this cycle no obviously not but neither is Bitcoin but can e still put in some good gains between here and the end of the cycle absolutely it's just lagging behind you can see that it's already starting to move and when that triangle breaks we're going to teleport up to previous highs probably a lot quicker than people expect xrp has just proven very very clearly that you can have gargantuan moves from Mega cap altcoins that seem to defy

logic and it's exactly what's just happened okay so don't fade the potential for eth to go from 3,800 bucks to 4,800 bucks in a week or two because that's exactly what can happen we can have that kind of crazy candle and basically what happened last time and I think this is it we all have such short-term memories so and and and a lot of a lot of people listening maybe weren't around last cycle four years ago or maybe you were around but maybe you weren't heavily invested and you weren't playing that close of attention so but even if you were around even though I was around I forget that this happened like it is so easy to forget but basically eth went from 600 to 4,000 4200 it went

7x in the matter of a six of a six-month period that happened right around now basically like so we're we're what three weeks roughly we're three or four weeks into bitcoin price Discovery where we we we blasted above previous all-time highs we're now in this new price Discovery uh and us last time what we were about four to six weeks in bitcoin price Discovery before eth started to move so you know what what does that say to you like what do you when do you think this how much longer do you think we see Bitcoin at this price before or sorry eth at this price before we go up and we don't come back to this price again until maybe a

year from now when uh if if we get back to this in the next bear Jay can I just say it's only been a month since the US election it feels like the last month has been like a year there's been so much going on it's been absolutely nuts just I just I just had that realization like it's only been a month holy crap that's been a crazy month um look it's not going to be long we're already seeing eth starting to move there's enough people already starting to talk about it on socials they're like oh it's playing catchup now now it's stting to move now this big triangle's getting ready to break all the stuff's happening Wall Street starting to pay attention all the narratives already there they're just going to keep playing out we're going to keep talking about it I would suspect that if history has any sort of

guidance for us that by the end of the year we'll see eth potentially getting unless something bad happens right World War II starts or some crap like that obviously but well hey fun fact for you US GDP Q4 growth 3.2% where's the recession baby there's no recession 3.2% growth let's go eth could get to back to the previous High by the end of the year and we start price Discovery January February so it's a great point to make that November 2020 eth was 600 bucks by April is 4,800 bucks I suspect we can see it move in a similar fashion this time where we get to previous highs potentially by the end of the month especially if Bitcoin breaks 100K it's going to be the the Catalyst that helps

drive us up followed by a move up to maybe 7,000 $8,000 by um uh March or April potentially even as high as 10K and that's not crazy that's not a crazy move for eth that's what you need to understand that's historically just diminishing returns coming in because we go from 2800 to 10K it's only 300% Move versus the 700% move we had at a similar period in the market back in the previous cycle so breakdown for us what is your your Bearer your base and your bull price Target for eth in this cycle sure I would say the the bearish take would

be around $7500 8,000 uh that would assume that really just the market just could it's wrong you know Wall Street doesn't really care about eth they're all just waiting around for the xrp and salani ETFs they're going to go big on those yeah eth gets some bid but nothing like the other coins are going to get people don't really care that much yeah some eth Wales bit it up whatever but it's not that big of a deal 7500 8,000 bucks okay base case 10 grand I think $10,000 now this is by the way these are the Fibonacci targets Fibonacci 1.618 lines around 7500 bucks the 2.68 is around $111,000 I think and the uh what I think is probably a likely Peak price for the Fibonacci targets and

with the number I've been saying for a long time is around $155,000 and that's Pico Pico price right you're there for a day or two before the end comes you start going back down now interesting fact for you last Market cycle the uh 3.68 Fibonacci line was hit almost exactly to the dollar almost exactly it came within like $2 or something of the 3.68 Fibonacci line it's shockingly accurate will it play out this time who knows it's just it's just one indicator it can't predict the future it's not a crystal ball but that is an interesting fact to note yes certainly uh those those all those cases sound pretty good to me somewhere in the 7500 to the 15,000 range would be pretty nice for

eth now I know you might be sitting there thinking well but I want 10x and again this comes back to all you know it's a risk adjusted uh scenario not to say you know eth is a high-risk asset in its own right but it's certainly nowhere near the risk of a lot of these other coins uh a lot of these other coins are flying right now and when I say other coins I mean uh as you like to call them d coins Lark which is just a fantastic term to call them Dino coins what what is going on with xrp and these other Dino coins right now some of this stuff's been really surprising some now look some of these there's been some big Partnerships like hidea hcraft uh they

announced a partnership with fedal so it's Federal Reserve and the FED now thing so that's a big partnership uh cardano they've got a lot of attention they've been talking to the Stella lumens guys Stella lumens I don't even know man they've talking to Stella lum guys been talking to xrp guys they got some Bitcoin layer 2 stuff going on so they're finding this narrative where people are going oh they're doing a lot of stuff now the actual onchain metrics for a lot of these things are still not super hot total value locks not super hot total daily transactions have probably gone up a bit recently but up until that happened has not been very hot still not a lot happening on a lot of the stuff but regardless the Market's pricing in a future where these things become very very exciting the xrp um guys they're finally launching their RL

USD state coin which is getting people very very excited right and rightfully so you've been waiting for that for an incredibly long time uh there's been rumors going around the sccc might even drop the case because they know they're going to lose it the new Administration is going to come in and probably just drop it anyway so you know let Gary get the win right oh we're just GNA we won there we Bas we'll just drop it now and we' we've proven our point you know some kind of Saving Face thing like that instead of getting slapped down on court again so xrp the guys were Ripple labs they fought the good fight they bought the SEC they've basically won the case it's not finished completely yet but for all intents and purposes it's over the Ripple apps guys W it there is a rumor that tomorrow the

4th we could actually see the New York uh Regulators approve the RL USD stable coin now when that happens that could be that uh you know sell the news kind of moment for xrp shortterm right uh long-term xrp goes up to six to 10 bucks the cycle whatever but the RL USD stable coin something they've waiting for for a very long time okay and because of the banking connections and all this stuff maybe it finally finally does the thing that xrp has been promised to do for 10 years they finally did it well we shall see we'll shall see what kind of adoption our leost stable coin gets obviously it'd be hilarious if all these

years tether's out there grinding man doing the good work and ripple just comes in like last minute like and there's like hundreds of billions of dollars because we're going to work with Washington and other big Banks and bring trillions of dollars on chain through RL USD that's the dream of course for xrp holders will it happen hard to say getting adoption is not easy right so it might take a little while but uh it's a big moment for xrp and you can understand why people have been excited about especially those long-term holders and it's so funny the nor all came back right they all download their coinbase apps a few weeks ago right we had that massive surge in coinbase downloads all the normies came back they opened up their coinbase apps again that they hadn't touched since they deleted them

in 2022 out of discuss but they still had their accounts they open up their accounts what have I gotten here some Bitcoin some ethereum some xrp and some cardano I'm just gonna bid all that stuff that's exactly what happened you think that that's it that's all that happened that's all that happened old retail came back and they just bought the same coins from last time nothing else has happened here so are you are you we're gonna we're doing a full episode on this for in tomorrow's show everybody listening so if you if you want deeper around xrp and all these other Dino coins we got Kyle coming on the show to talk about that but before we let you go Lark are you buying any of these these tokens or are you just sitting on your hands and watching and not touching them no I'm not buy I'm not

buying any of those uh coins uh Stella lens xrp cardano um you know no shade on any of them I just not my cup of tea right cardano they did great back in the day made some good money on that xrp was one of the first all coins I ever bought you know it's don't hate xrp just doesn't really sing to me anymore let's say but uh hey there's you don't here's the thing you don't have to own them but you sure can trade them guys you sure can trade them okay there's been some incredible trading opportunities out there so don't be afraid to uh do a little bit of trading around some of these assets when you see the momentum going okay so that's something to keep in mind everybody Lark thanks so much for joining us today appreciate your takes as always and everybody listening

in I want to know a I want to know how you guys are feeling about eth are you bullish are you bearish and then I want to know are you are you guys buying these other tokens maybe you guys are the ones buying xrp and cardano and hadera and ALR and all these tokens that are just absolutely flying in the past month let us know if you guys are buying them and you want us to talk about them more and tune in to tomorrow's episode to hear Kyle talk about them as well thanks again for your time today Lark thank you have a wicked awesome day everybody thanks for listening in as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us if you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free 5 minute daily

newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one re resources to help you invest successfully in crypto one final note this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening and my friends have a wicked awesome day