The end of quantitative tightening and what it means for Bitcoin and altcoins

Transcript

So, I think once Bitcoin breaks all-time highs, which I do expect to happen before the end of the year, um, we will have that start. Um, and I I believe that ETH is going to finally make its breakout. It had like such a fake little move back to 4,900. It was exciting. It was great. Um, but I think we're going to get past that and make a really big move there. The Salana ETFs have just hit. I think Soul will make a strong move. >> GM, good morning. and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show where Powell's wardrobe has more market impact than some central banks. I'm your host, Jay Hamilton. It's Thursday, October 30th. Today's episode was recorded on October 29th. The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points. And even

bigger news, they have officially announced the end of QT is coming soon. Is the end of QT the catalyst for altcoin season, which we've all been waiting for? We're going to break that down today. Also, does crypto peak in 2025 or does the bull run continue into 2026? This is the question on everyone's mind right now. We're going to jump into this and so much more with today's guest, the one and only Andy, founder and host of The Rollup, one of the leading crypto media companies, also a fund manager. We're going to hear from Andy on so many things today. Before we jump in, Milk Road is hiring. We are launching an AI brand and we need a leader. We need somebody who is a researcher, a thinker and a active AI

investor that is looking to understand how retail and how professionals can invest in AI. So if you live and breathe AI investing and want to be part of building something from the ground up, this is your moment. Check out the link in the descriptions and you could be joining the Milk Road team running our AI division soon. Today's episode is brought to you by the Gemini credit card. Turn your everyday spending into Bitcoin stack sats without even thinking about it. Also brought to you by Bridge. Power your business with instant stable coin payments. No friction, no banks, just global finance made simple. And finally brought to you by Figure Markets. Earn solid returns on your cash because sitting idle isn't a strategy.

Andy, what's up, man? Welcome to the Milk Road Show. >> Man, what a what a wild week already in these markets, huh? It's like I mean, just the last couple weeks, it's there's so much to keep up with, man. Thanks for having me, >> man. It's I can't believe this is your first time on the show. Uh it's uh hopefully the first of many. Uh I'm here in LA uh celebrating the Blue Jays of the World Series. So my wild week is not just in the markets. I'm also I'm also being wild with the uh with the baseball World Series right now. But let's let's put that aside. Let's talk about the news of the day. Uh FOMC meeting uh just just happened. Pres actually like just finishing up right now. We got the news 25 basis point cut uh and quantitive tightening officially ending uh I

believe this early December. Uh you can confirm if you know the date. Um what's your what's your takes on uh on this uh this meeting and this um this news from PAL? >> Well, first of all, we've got two fellow Canadians here. So, go Blue Jays. I must win tonight in LA. Huge huge last two games. I've been just glued to the TV here at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. I'm down in Florida. Um yeah, man. So, December 1st, uh Fed Chair Powell has officially announced as the end of QT. Um this is huge for a lot of reasons. Basically, what's been happening is that they've been slowing down the balance sheet reductions over the last six to 12 months. So if you, you know, if you go

on Trading View, you can kind of look at the uh Fed balance sheet and it's like it's kind of had a slope of that almost like a hockey stick where it was very very fast and then now it's kind of like flattened out. So that's going to be flattened out to at least uh you know zero reduction. That's really really important because all it's going to signal to the forward-looking uh the forward-looking nature of the market is that what's probably going to come is balance sheet expansion next. And what balance sheet expansion does is it basically allows uh some of the more longer tail risk assets in the world to have a bid and get some of the liquidity. And I think that's what a lot of us are waiting for for the crypto markets. I mean this bull cycle has been one of the oddest bull cycles of you

know since history. And it's because we've been in this quantitative tightening financially kind of restrictive environment. And so, you know, I think today's FOMC is just a further confirmation that the the trend is going in more rate cuts. I think the the market's pricing at about 95% chance of another rate cut in December, although today Powell didn't have a confirmation on that. He kind of left it open uh in his speech, but I think that's that's uh more than likely. And then I also think that the balance sheet expansion is going to come. Now, what I don't want people to think is that this is just going to be like 2020 when there was when we printed 40% of the US dollar's supply and all the assets went on an infinite run. I do think it's

going to be a much slower uh a much more thoughtful and methodical process here. Uh but what I do think is super important is and shout out to Ben Cohen. I know that you guys have had him on in the last couple weeks. He has said so many times that if you're holding altcoins, you're looking for Bitcoin dominance to to have one final move here, one final rotation. And really, one of his thesises has been that you're looking for this quantitative tightening to end. And so, I think we're getting there. I think this is the precipice of the infamous alt season. If you've been calling it for this entire time, Jay, been waiting like me, we've been wrong.

I mean, if you've been holding Bitcoin, you've been right. But I do think this is the precipice and it starts at the macro level. Um and so I I do expect to see the market kind of price some more bullishness in the um far end of the risk curve for crypto. >> Yeah, it's I agree with your take that the big news out of today's meeting. The one takeaway is QT officially ending. We we knew we had speculation that it was ending cuz Pal had said maybe like a few weeks ago that a month ago or so that he was likely to end it, but just that confirmation that it was ending. Now, if you listen to our episode earlier this week with Lark Davis, we talked about how QT ending does not mean QE starts.

There is just the ending of QT. If QE starts, that wouldn't happen immediately. That's a later decision. you could make a good case that QE might start in 2026, especially if Trump gets his own guy as the next head of the Fed in replace of Powell, which is also likely to happen. So, but even even if QE doesn't start, just QT ending is a huge signal in the market and particularly the more riskier assets, the altcoins and that part of the market should do well as a result of that. Uh, let me just pull up a quick summary of the FOMC just so everybody listening in, if you didn't watch it, which I'm sure you didn't have the time to do, a couple of key highlights. So, the labor market

is weakening and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Uh, available data suggests outlook has not changed. Job gains have slowed significantly this year. So, a little bit of concern around jobs. Um, higher tariffs are resulting in higher overall inflation. This is the one that another thing that really stood out to me is Fed members have had strongly different views on the upcoming December Fed meeting. So another Fed rate cut in December is far from assured. So there's clearly a growing divide. And let's just like open up Poly Market over here. Look at this. Poly market was it was up I don't know why this isn't showing me the percentage, but it 90% that we would get a rate cut in December and now it's down to 69%. So

that that news I think this is the the big question with the Fed right now is will we see more rate cuts before Powell leaves? That is the part that I do not know. I don't know if you have takes on that and my view would be I don't know that we need more rate cuts right now. I could see we we kind of stay flat until May when Pal's term ends and then we see like a crazy rate cut season which gets into this like extended cycle thesis. We'll talk about your view on the cycle.

But anyways, any any views on your end on uh how how the Fed will will uh will go from here in December in future meetings. >> Yeah, I think that um you know Drew Pal had to come out and kind of be somewhat cautious today. I think since the since his his his run in 2021, he's been a lot more selective with how he's using his language as well as how he's, you know, cutting rates. I think it's all but guaranteed that we get a a rate cut in in December. I would say that that market probably doesn't go below 75%. In fact, I think it rebounds in the next couple weeks back up to to the 90s. So, I would say it's pretty much guaranteed that we get a 25% cut, but we shall see.

You made an interesting point. We had one of the first Fed uh you know uh board members do what they call a disscent where they don't agree with the rest of the uh you know Fed board and that happened like several months back and it's it's I think it's happened every time since now and that was like one of the first times in let's call it a couple decades. So, it's like something is has happened internally where there's just a lack of consensus being reached. And I don't know if it's because Trump's got his hand in there or, you know, somebody's looking out for something else. There's just a lot of there just seems to be a lack of consensus internally, which uh from an investor's perspective, investors and markets love uh certainty, you know,

they love this idea of certainty, and this is just not what we're getting. >> Yeah. Yeah. Which is which is dangerous. Let's just talk about how the market reacted. Uh we're recording just after the FOMC meeting. You guys are listening to this about uh just under 24 hours later. So forgive us if the price action has changed since since this. And also we are getting we have the the Trump meeting tomorrow. So we might have even more big news tomorrow. But currently markets dip down uh Bitcoin down 111 uh ETH down to 3,900. kind of feeling like my guess is just a bit of a sell the news event. Everybody expected this rate cut. I don't know what your take is.

>> Yeah, I think so. I think um my take is that tomorrow's which you know for those listening is today. I think there's no way Trump you know doesn't do anything but positivity tomorrow with China. I think that he has too much on the line. The markets are absolutely doing exactly what he wants. I see a bullish reversal into the end of the week. I actually think that this is the beginning of Bitcoin's next big move. We've been watching stocks go on an absolute tear for the last several weeks. We've seen gold go parabolic. Bitcoin has been lagging. You take a look at crypto Twitter, everyone's in pain. They're like, "Why am I not holding stocks? Why why is crypto just it's kind of like that meme with the stick and and the

things not moving?" And so, you know, my take here is that we we probably reverse this by the end of the week. And then I think I think Bitcoin starts what it's going to be, you know, the the run that puts it back on to like the main stage in a big way. Have no idea how high. Have don't know when it ends, but I truly believe that that final kind of big move from Bitcoin as part of this uh elongated cycle is happening. Um and it's basically starting from after this Trump uh and uh Chi-Ping meeting as well as FOMC. Um, and yeah, I think that we can talk about what that means for other tokens and and of that sort, but I'm not flinching at this. To me, it was great to see that we dumped prior to the FOMC,

settled in a bit, you know, got the open interest wiped down a bit, and then now we have a bit more flexibility to make a a more kind of sustainable move. >> Yeah, [clears throat] the uh the chart that's going around uh crypto quarter right now, everybody's loving this. Uh this is a chart that shows the gold top in 2020 and the price of Bitcoin at that same time. And basically when gold tops is a signal because Bitcoin lags gold. We all know this. And what happened in 2020 was gold Bitcoin absolutely ripped from like 10K all the way up uh to like 60 69K. I can't remember where the peak was in 2020. Um and and and there's the prediction is okay. Does that happen

again? Like, has gold peaked? Gold's on a bit of a a draw down now, pull back. Uh has it peaked? And is this the time that Bitcoin rips? Which sort of fits into your thesis? Is that kind of your thinking that you see we see Bitcoin uh go into a bit of a hyperbolic stage to end the year here? >> I Yeah, I think so. I think I got to remind your audience that in that time period of 2020, we also printed 40% of the US dollar. So, I would not suggest that we're going to go for from 10 from 100K to 600K, but I would I would I would definitely uh stay on on the long side here. Now, you know what's funny is that we're the market's getting excited right now about trading PERS on equities. HIP3 on Hypqui liquid has just gone through Austin, a bunch of these

other per exchanges are getting excited. the market is literally paying attention to trading per pers on equities and that's a really really good sign that like something's coming for crypto in a positive way most likely because we've started to diverge our attention from these markets into oh well let's trade stocks 247 because they only go up and so yeah I think there's many signals right now I think that gold one is one of the best um and it's actually quite an alarming signal uh to be honest I I own quite a bit of sold in the physical form. I bought it after the last bull run in 2021. Felt silly. Now I'm up over a double in like five years on it. I'm like, this is supposed to be like my safety net.

>> But like when when gold's ripping, it's it's a sign that something is wrong. And I think Bitcoin will have its chance to have that digital value, digital gold, digital scarcity moment here next. And so yeah, I mean, let's just say that I don't think it's going to hit a 6x from here anytime soon, but I think an explosive move is coming. Did you know you can earn Bitcoin without ever buying it? That's where the Gemini credit card comes in. Here's how it works. Earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin on gas, transit, and ride share. 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% on everything else.

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infrastructure at milkroad.combridge. So let's talk about the rest of the crypto market. Uh as you said, it's been a a difficult cycle. uh but remain you remain bullish, we remain bullish feeling like there is still going to be a I'm going to put altcoin season in air quotes because I don't think it's a it's not like past altcoin seasons where throw a dart at the board and every single altcoin rips to Valhalla. But I think that and the main reason is just there's like there's tens of millions of coins at this point like you can't have a lot of them are going to are at zero and will stay there. But what are your thoughts on uh on the major altcoins and

where you think how do you think it plays out? Do you think we get a a rip here and we go into an altcoin season? Do you think it's still early? What's your thoughts? >> Yeah, so I think once Bitcoin breaks all-time highs, which I do expect to happen before the end of the year, um we will have that start. Um and I I believe that ETH is going to finally make its breakout. It had like such a fake little move back to 4,900. It was exciting. It was great. Um, but I think we're going to get past that and make a really big move there. The Salana ETFs have just hit. I think Soul will make a strong move. And then you kind of go down the list here. Um, and so I just generally think that the market wants Bitcoin to be at all-time highs before we can

really get that actual move. And I think that's basically what we're lining up to do now. I think sector-wise, if you, you know, turn time back a year ago, AI crypto sector was hot right now. It was, we were in the middleish phase of this agent crypto X account where they were kind of like they had a coin attached. I think we're getting a rerun right now of AI crypto virtuals looks fantastic. Allora token launch is coming out. Mera just launched and there's tons more. There's like the hyperbolic, there's ritual will probably have a mainet soon.

There are like multiple names in this AI sector that I think will make a comeback. I kind of make the last year's AI kind of boom as like the DeFi summer. It was like a bunch of like unsophisticated kind of like stuff thrown together and you know we called it AI. Not only has the actual technology advanced so significantly, you're seeing all this talk about aentic payments with X42, all these different things happening, but also the projects that are actually like leading that category have now gotten to a point where they're actually launching their token, are trading, and are alive and I've mentioned some of those. So, I think that we have like a chance here to have the kind of like the next era of the quality AI crypto kind of sector

projects. So, I'm definitely uh paying attention there. >> I'm also Mike. >> Yeah. >> Uh uh before I just to double click on the AI uh crypto, are you investing in AI crypto or you are you investing in AI in a more direct fashion? Because that is the one we talk when we talk mostly we talk about AI crypto. But what I'm starting to see is a lot more of our community members and and our team becoming very interested in direct AI investment opportunities. Now that's mostly through public markets. It's like obviously a different vehicle that you're using typically. I just curious where if you where your focus is.

>> Yeah. Yeah. You know what's funny is that the investment that I'm most confident in on this AI crypto sector is the one that uh we've made two years ago through our fund which has completely pivoted away from crypto and they're just an AI investment now. It's called hyperbolic. They were doing you know crypto stuff and they've just gone okay no no we're just going to go to San Francisco and we're just going to you know basically hide all the blockchain stuff and just be an AI company. And so I think you have you know you have the right idea here where um you know these cryp these AI crypto companies they are very early and the use case is still kind of being built out but the AI investment is is I mean that's one of the hottest sectors right now in the in

the entire planet. It's if not the hottest. I talked to the deli guys last week about this. They've basically sent team members out to San Francisco and have just been finding fund fund managers that they like and investing into a fund who then does AI investing. So, it's hard to kind of like get your feet wet as a angel investor, as a small retail investor, as even like a small fund. So, you know, what I would recommend is like try to find a good fund manager that you like out there and and work through them. Um, you know, we're still looking to be honest. Um, but all of our current investments and my takes here are more around like

virtuals and like coins you can buy today. But, but I do think there is something to be said about getting to San Francisco doing a AI investments. And I do think the only real way is to find yourself into a fund and investing through a fund. >> Yeah, it is certainly which is hard for a lot of our listeners. Like let's be honest, like that's that's really hard and it just might not be possible. Uh I think that we are currently cooking up some stuff to try to help everybody listening. If you want more AI investment content, throw throw a comment uh down below or give us a like and let us know because we're going to try to figure out how to help you guys.

Whether it be not necessarily through a fund, but more like what are the retail ways that you can invest in AI? Sorry. Okay, so quick aside there. Let's go back. You were about to tell us the other thing that you're paying attention to right now other than AI crypto. >> Yeah, man. I mean, I think I've I've had this saying for so long on my uh Twitter ex. It's a Andy with three Y's. I'll put in the description or I'm sure you guys will. And basically, it's return to fundamentals and like we are finally in a market moment where you can look at the market and and buy tokens that are have public accounting that is reliable, have programmable cash flows, programmable buybacks, they have actual real customers, revenues, and like you can actually look at these charts and be

like, "Wow, like this is happening." And so like from my perspective from the industry, I'm sure there's going to be a wide uh you know kind of move across many tokens especially if the financial conditions get better. But it's becoming so more and more obvious and important that this is the institutional cycle. Like this is by and large the institutional cycle. And so what do you need to do as an investor? You need to think like an institution and and think like a team of analysts who are studying these markets and wondering what to buy.

And guys, I don't I hate to break it to you. I don't think we're buying like Cardono. I don't think we're buying, you know, the nth flavor of a memecoin. you know, I and even some of these L1 tokens, they are investable and I think that they're good, but but they're buying tokens that are like DeFi protocols and tokens that have really solid fundamentals. And so, I mean, I can just, you know, kind of list off top of my head, but that's like my general those are like my two thought process right now. I was like, okay, what's going to happen in this AI crypto thing? Because time is a flat circle. This happened last year. It's going to happen again. I think there's something happening here. And and then it's like, okay, do I own enough a hype, uh, Maple, uh Hyperlquid uh Pump um uh you

know, like even like Sky and like, uh, Maker, um, and synthetics even in some way, maybe not that one as much, but, you know, lighter TGE is coming out. Some of these more perexes are coming out. you know, you can just look at these like revenues on simple platforms and I just feel so comfy holding these types of tokens knowing it's an institutional cycle. So, so I would say like my biggest takeaway right now is think like an institution, you know, like how are institutions going to look at this market. How are they going to allocate? What are they going to buy? and then just get in front of them because they're coming in and they will buy many of these things that I've just said and others. But they will not buy something that is opaque, has a lack of transparency, has a very um concentrated

ownership, and doesn't have a future as a business. They want to invest in real onchain businesses. And I think that's the biggest trend for any investor in in the space. and and and and and as you said, they want to invest in things that fit into their model of the world and their model of finance and their model of the industries that they are investing in. And the models that they work off of are not crypto speculative uh models of hype and sentiment. They work off models of revenue and real cash flow and real users and that I I I speak all the time to fund managers who are always telling me like, "Yeah, like you think I can go model, you know, Bonk or

like Dogecoin or something like that?" No, but I can model all the ones that you listed off as as a a much better investable asset for them, right? Doesn't mean that uh it doesn't mean that they won't necessarily go down the risk curve and invest in some of these other things. So, it it's interesting what I what I'm hearing and I I actually kind of am putting this together in my own mind right now is like um the the fundamental narrative is something we've been talking a lot about and I think that that is that is a everything's risky and this not financial advice but that feels like the lower risk opportunity not as low risk as Bitcoin but like within the crypto

space that it feels like the lower risk high opportunity right now in this for the rest of this cycle. The AI crypto stuff though kind of feels still it still feels very speculative to me. It still gives me like NFTTS, memecoin, early experimentation. So maybe like are you sort of saying like the AI crypto stuff is the that's the the bubble that we're going to see like that's what's really going to rip and there will be some outsized returns there just because AI hype is such big hype right now.

That's is that kind of the way you're looking at it? >> Yeah. I mean I see it as a Q4 play >> more than a let me hold these assets for 5 years play. Mhm. >> The ones that I mentioned on uh in the latter section, the a hypes, the uh etc. These are more of the I want to hold this asset for, you know, as long as I can because I think that I think basically what we're what we're having right now is we're forming like the mag seven of crypto like we're forming the actual assets that are will be like there's going to be a strong move from you know let's say assets in the 25 to 200 uh market cap range and there's going to be like five or 10 of them that

go into the top 20 and and it's happening it's happened every cycle there's a reshuffleling of like the top 15 assets and I think that's basically what what we're getting and I just don't see any other reality where it's not these assets that are actually generating real cash flows returning that value back to the token holders in some form or another and doing it in a programmatic verifiable open manner. Um, so yes, AI crypto, I think virtuals, I think some of these newer token launches are are going to have a a good Q4. Um, and >> but short butm this is shortterm. Pay attention cuz I agree. Like get in, get out.

>> These guys could drop fast, right? >> Nvidia's ripping like Nvidia's at $210. Like AI is hot. It's the hottest it's been. Get in, you know, buy a Christmas gift, get out [laughter] >> type of thing. So, let's talk about 2026. What's your in the four-year cycle? What's what's your thesis? It's >> dead. It's >> dead. It's completely cooked. >> So, what do you think happens in 2026? What's the new if if four year cycle is dead and I completely agree, then what is what is this cycle? What is it going to be?

>> Should I just grab my crystal ball over here and just >> Yeah, please. Please. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. give it give it a little witch witches dust on top. And uh >> so you know I think what we're going to get is just a bit more uh compressed market uh structures here. So we may get a bare market in 2026 that sucks. That's rough. But I just don't think it's going to last two years. I think it we could have a 6 to9month bare period in 2026 where you know your listeners would not want to be holding altcoins through that. You would not want to be, you know, you'd want to be taking at at least some sort of like uh, you know, market risk off a bit, at least taking some profits. That is not a given though. But I think like that is my

general direction here is like if you look at uh, Bitcoin and look at ETH and some of these other majors, I think you you get these shorter periods of booms and busts versus these longer drawn out periods of booms and busts. And so generally what I I think Bitcoin has earned its like up into the right status now. It's hard to say otherwise. Um I'm sure it's going to have a, you know, if we go to 180K or something by, you know, January, okay, like that we're getting pretty hot here, right? We're even 150. Um and so, you know, I think 2026 is going to be again the institutionalled market. So, if we do get a downturn, it will be institutions buying the assets that they want at discounts. If we

don't, it'll just be institutions continuing to buy. So my general outlook for 2026 is it's been a long 2 and a half years or so from the last bare market lows. Uh it's you know portfolio has been absolutely on a tear since it's been a hard cycle. Not as you know I'm sure a lot of people have not performed as well as they wanted. But my general frame of mind is like later this year into next year is a is a general time for profit taking but it's not a general time to be like bearish and to be calling for a huge bare market. Um, so look, I'm excited for 2026. I think it's going to be a a a year of both bull and bare periods. Um, but it's it's I cannot say that we are going to have these long

drawn out bare markets anymore. Just don't think it's going to happen. >> Mhm. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's an interesting take. Why do people invest in real estate? Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY. It's the first real world asset borrow lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you. Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go to milkroad.com/figuremarkets.

Would you I and obviously it depends on where we end the year, but kind of what I'm hearing is you don't want to be holding all Assuming Bitcoin assuming Bitcoin gets to where we think it's going to get. Let's assume it gets to 150 plus by the end of the year. You're not holding all coins going into 2026 is kind of what I'm hearing. >> I think altcoins will have an insane run if we do that into 2026. I would not want to be holding altcoins post that if Bitcoin has topped. >> Nobody would want to. And when I say top, I just mean like the thing could go from 150 to 90 and it would be fine. We would be totally in a great spot still, but man, you would not want to be

holding even ETH. You wouldn't want to be holding soul. You you just wouldn't. And so it it depends on your outlook and kind of like what your what your uh trading philosophy is. Um, but you know, I hold a lot of my portfolio concentrated in bags that I think are uh, you know, kind of like things that I'd want to hold over the long term, but I I do trim them and it, you know, I think you'd be remiss, you know, to not do the same. [clears throat] >> Yeah, it's 2026. We we'll see how we finish this year. It is very interesting because there is no consensus, right? like you know you similar to me interview people every day and I have yet to find

consensus like there is there is there is those who still believe in the four-year cycle and like I agree I also think it's cooked but we both can readily admit it is too early to definitively say that right like it is yes it is not following typical patterns of where the four cycle would typically go as of right now but you and I to both be wrong. If if Bitcoin peaks in the next month, then four year cycle still on. Seems unlikely, but then there's all these other the the the views that I'm trying to understand is like, you know, the what happens in 2026 and like >> just with the macro setup, like everybody is so bullish on the macro

setup. I know. And we haven't we haven't really seen that play out into a risk-on environment for an extended period because tariffs just like nuked us so many times this year. So it just feels like, you know, there's that whole side that like, okay, if this Goldilocks macro setup goes the way we all think it's going to go, which is what everybody keeps saying, then 2026 could be another continued bull run. But it also feels crazy that this could continue for another year. And then I I agree with you like we're going to see pullbacks. How big are those pullbacks? And then I have some people coming on the show saying they're like, "No, we ripped through 2027." I'm like, "Wow, really? You think so?" Like, maybe >> I love it. I honestly love it.

>> Yeah. It just shows how it is. It is more difficult than ever to understand the markets. I mean, even as we started the show, the Fed board is disagreeing currently in ways that they have never disagreed before. Well, tell you why. Because the economy is unlike it's ever been before. and and and that doesn't even bring into play what AI is going to do to the economy in the next few years, which like let's be real, none of us actually really can predict that and understand, let alone the Fed, which I think is really underestimating that. So yeah, man, you got to you got to stay tuned in for sure. And >> I mean that's what that's kind of like the beauty of markets, right? It's like there when you lack a consensus view, uh

it creates a market. It's the beautiful thing about it. Look, I think we have to be bullish, but I'm just saying if things get really fun in the next two, three months, which I think is going to happen, just be cautious. Just be cautiously bullish because all it takes is Nvidia to have a rough year somehow or a rough quarter and things, the whole global economy is like, >> yeah, >> you know, whoa, what's happening? So, you know, things are shaky, but they also feel steady in a weird way. It's like I feel safe holding Bitcoin. like Bitcoin to a million feels safer than it ever has, which is this how assets work.

It feels safe when it goes up and that's actually like the most risky point, but it it feels like it's written like like I don't know. I think like the conflicting views here Jay come from the lack of knowledge of how all the futuristic things from AI from robotics from macro to Trump to uh you know tariffs all these happening while at the same time our asset class being uh accepted by the largest institutions in the world and being promoted by largest institutions in the world like in the past we haven't had that we we've just had we've just been dealing with the like macro liquidity uh conditions and events we've basically just been like a beta to the stock market, things are going well, we're going really well. If they go bad, we're going really bad.

Now, it's like you have these conflicting forces of like institutions and weird macro and it's like how do you kind of put them together? Who has a stronger pull, etc. And so, I think that's kind of like that explains why there's a lot of conflicting views, I think. >> Yeah. It also feels to me like um you need you need a you need to really take a look at your exit strategy and really make sure you are you are prepared for a potential you know mania to happen and which like it from a sentiment perspective feels crazy to say right >> I know right but it's like seems obvious

though it feels obvious I agree I agree so I think that like but you You have a rare opportunity right now where you can sit down and make sure review your exit plan and make sure that if this goes euphoric in Q4, which could happen, that you are you're not caught in the oh, we're going to Valhalla forever mindset, which is the mindset that we all get into. >> And it's going to be easy to do that. >> It's going to be easy. Four year cycle's over, super cycle. It's going to all happen again. I think >> Exactly. Exactly. And I guess, you know, you make a good point that like you really this could be the opportunity to take some profit, take some some money

off the table if you feel like we're getting to those frothy levels, which we could. And it's not to say I think you and I both agree we don't know what's going to happen in 2026. >> Yeah. >> But at least that way, okay, let's say 2026 does end up continued bull run. Okay. maybe you need to you need to get back in if you if that's the way it goes. But at least you're not caught offside if 2026 does see a dip, which is definitely a possibility. So yeah, everybody take a look at your take a look at your investments and take a look at your plan and make sure you have some idea of like, okay, when are your sell targets? What would what signals would you be making exits at so that you don't get caught not taking profits for

another cycle, which is just would that would be the end of me. >> Yeah. Oh my goodness, three three in a row here. I can't do it. [laughter] >> Andy, man, pleasure to get you on the show today. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Thanks, Jay. >> Appreciate you all listening in. Have a wicked awesome day. We'll see you back again tomorrow. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap. This is a DEX that we built in partnership with Cow Protocol. Why did we build it? Not to make money. just honestly so we could have a place to do our swaps for the lowest fees that we could find. This is the fees on Ethereum, Arbitum, and Bass are only.15% fees. Uh this is a huge difference from

uh other centralized exchanges that charge half a percent or even up to 1.2% fees on their swaps. Also, you can swap on Salana all at swap.milgro.com. Check it out today. you won't be upset and you can join me in my favorite place to make swaps and launch chain. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and [music] how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing [music] like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.