EMERGENCY BEAR MARKET LIVESTREAM What to do if you're scared!

14 Jun 2022 · 1:12:32

David Hoffman and Ryan Sean Adams hold an emergency Bankless livestream as crypto prices crash, with ether down about 75% and Bitcoin about 68% from their highs. They compare first-time holders with veterans of the 2018 bear market, map investor panic onto the five stages of grief, and argue that rising interest rates and Federal Reserve tightening are driving this downturn, with the Terra and Celsius collapses seen as symptoms. Hoffman makes a case for ether's own cash flows from staking and EIP-1559, and both stress that their price forecasts are guesses. Their advice: develop your own conviction, dollar-cost average, avoid margin, never invest more than you can afford to lose, and find a bear market buddy.

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hang on Ryan hang on hang on sorry right hold on sound issues sound issues say something hey what's up there we go now start over awesome hey bankless Nation this is uh an emergency session of the bankless nation we are we are uh recording here we're doing a live stream because we feel like we've been through something over the past week or so I don't think I've been hit this hard uh in the mouth by a bare Market since like maybe forever but this is starting to feel reminiscent of 2018 so we wanted to give you guys the bare Market survival guide you know haters will call this copium David uh but I think we've got some things to say we want to go through what

happened to prices recently in crypto why it's happening at least at a high level what's going to happen next and how you should play it how David and I are playing it uh David um what do we want to cover here man yeah yeah that's we definitely want to talk about of course because even when people are down bad sometimes that means the opportunities are the highest uh but also at the same time to some degree I think other people are just not there there's one part of the the uh conversation which is what opportunities are there and then the the other part of the conversation is like some people just need like a shoulder to lean on some people just need to cope uh and so this is that what you need David how you feeling man I always kind of appreciate

the fact that markets are Aggregates of human emotions uh a lot of humans calculate things with their gut with their emotions and so when the markets are down bad that means the people are down bad uh and so there's a lot of that out there and so we're going to try and balance out just like some people just need uh to like go through the process of of pain to get through to the other side so we're going to talk about all of those things uh thankfully I'm the the the son of what I think is a very talented uh psychologist and so hopefully I can I can bring some mom energy into this into this live stream uh but there's also the conversation that I want to get to of comparing this Market cycle to last Market cycle because you know same same but different

uh why different because it's that different that is that difference that people I think is getting uh you know it's the difference of between this cycle and last cycle that really causes um a lot of people a lot of like uh just like emotions right it's like why did this happen uh and of course there's also just a macro conversation Ryan and I are not macro experts but I do think that we do know where to look uh and so over the next like weeks and months I think we're going to talk to a lot of macro experts and get their perspective because this no one knows anything like no one knows everything uh but if you talk to a lot of macro experts we can start to paint a picture and so I think that's this isn't just crypto right this is inflation This Is War this is

pandemic this is you know monetary this is Central Bank stuff and so I think uh the the analysis of this bare Market requires a bit more than maybe the previous be markets have um ultimately though we want to get to a place where we're talking about how to how to rebuild uh how to pick yourself up and keep moving forward how to keep journeying West uh you know people forget David but bankless was born in a bare Market I know we've said this before but it kind of feels like home uh at least for us not that we're excited or giddy about it but at some level this is a time to uh to reflect and develop uh conviction and to rebuild for the next leg up but uh Ju Just A Just A vibe check on you man like how are you feeling this bare market so um I think

that you you knew it was a bare Market I don't know you tell me though Dave do you think we'd come down this far and this fast like and how are you feeling about this oh I I wouldn't say that I knew it was a bare Market I think that my mind has accepted that it's a bare Market in the last like three days like really oh yeah yeah yeah yeah uh like like you knew it was a bare Market but you didn't know it was a bare Market capital B like pain time correct correct yes like we were at like three four five months of draw down and this is all always about like where where's your reference point right and so from somebody that came out of the 2018 to 2020 bear when you show me like 2000 to 17 $100 eth price I'm like well it's not

that bad um uh and then but then you take you throw it down to below all-time highs for the previous bare market for the pre previous bull market I'm like okay that's a bare Market that's what a bare Market looks like so uh now now I have firmly capitulated in the fact that this is definitely a bare Market this is what a bare Market looks like I treated it out um a couple days ago uh when ether was going from 1,700 down to like 1400 and even before it hit two uh 1200 where um like the we we've talked about like with uh when we ever had our our bull case for eth podcast with Anthony suzano and Eric Connor and Cyrus and DC investor like we always talk about like the bare Market the bare Market of old the last time the last time like prices

went down we always talked about like how it felt and like that this is the first time when ether went from 1700 down to like 1200 this was the first time I was I was like okay this is how it felt this this was how 2018 felt uh like you thought you had a glimmer of hope things like crypto prices would go down they stabilized and you're like okay was that it you got to this glimmer hope and then it went down like another 20% and then that was on repeat uh and so the this last Sunday or like Saturday and Sunday after the CPI inflation numbers came in and crypto prices just got absolutely walloped after getting walloped after getting walloped I was like okay this for the first time this feels like a like the bare Market that I'm familiar with um and so like like

how how am I emotionally doing uh I'm a little frustrated I would say I'm a little frustrated uh what are you frustrated about um it's just because like in in hindsight it makes a lot of sense but uh I remember in the 2018 to 2020 bear thinking uh like everyone was talking about oh the next crypto cycle the next crypto cycle the next crypto cycle is totally going to happen when the next cycle comes when the next cycle comes I'm like well if everyone's talking about the next cycle then like doesn't that mean that like if like Market is there's consensus on the next cycle therefore it's not going to manifest the same way but it totally did like ether went from 400 to like 4,000 inside of 12 months it was super fast and then like I should have taken that into account and been like uh okay well

if it's if we are indeed and again the next cycle it's going to be a cycle as in the cycle comes to an end and so I didn't account for the end of the cycle Ryan um but also at the same time I'm like not in the game of selling eth so like even though like I didn't account for it I also wouldn't have like changed What I've Done anyways like I've always said like I'll go up I'll I'll rise with eth and I'll go down with eth uh so at the end of the day I'm going down with eth my man recalibrating adjusting everyone has conviction as Mike Tyson says until they get punched in the mouth and this definitely feels like uh we've been punched in the mouth and are bleeding a little bit here MH yeah how you doing my man uh you know what David

I I got to be honest I'm I'm feeling pretty Zen about things like I'm feeling pretty stoic about things and I got to say this is not the way I felt in 2018 but I don't think it's because the circumstances have changed and because it's that much different than 2018 though it is different than 2018 um it's just because um I've seen this play before like I feel like everything that's happened including the reply guys uh telling us that crypto is never going to um go up again and this time it's different uh including all of the fud around um eth and crypto and nfts and everything else uh including all of the like the fear it's the exact same

comments on on repeat and this like in 2018 I was actually unsure of my my thesis and the underlying crypto and investment so I spent 2018 and 2019 and part of 2020 trying to figure that out like oh like was I wrong did I really mess this up um and then I came out of that market with uh with conviction and in 2021 in 2022 that conviction has just built up even more and so I am at the St AG where I feel unfazed by crypto prices at all because I have such a high level of of conviction so this is kind of like it's annoying a little bit it's kind of like

a you know a fly buzzing around my head I have to just kind of SWAT it but at the same time it's also refreshing and I sort of feel a little bit like do you know uh Eric Vorhees when you whenever you talk to Eric Vorhees Bitcoin OG got in like you know 2012 or 2013 whenever you talk to that guy about bare markets he's just always so Zen right and it's you know why it's because he's been through this he's seen it he's been through Mount he's been like nothing can face him at this point and this time around I feel a bit more like that like I have the conviction and I am not concerned at all and now uh hopefully what we can do in this episode a little bit is um offer some perspective maybe offer some lessons learned because the

first uh cycle was not like that at all for me David and I grew a lot in in 2017 2018 2019 and I think some of those lessons might be helpful for for folks here today so guys we're going to get into all of that that's going to be the bulk of the podcast uh welcome to the be Market before we get in this is somewhat ironic David but our friends at metamask wanted us to let you know that they have this cool buy button if you dare if you dare if you dare it's a great way to buy eth and buy Bitcoin of course uh you know you're catching falling knives at this point if you're about to get liquidated and you need gas money now you can buy use the buy button in

metamask to get emergency gas money into whatever wallet you need guys we're going to get into all of that and uh and more of course but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible rocket pool is your friendly decentralized ethereum staking protocol you can stake your e with rocket pool and get our eth in return allowing you to stake your eth and use it in defi at the same time you can get 4% on your eth by saking it with rocket pool but you can get even more by running a node rocket pool is the only saking provider that allows anyone to permissionless join their network of validating nodes running a rocket pool node is easier to set up than running a solo node and you only need 16 e to get started why would you do this you get an

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let's let's start here maybe with some emotional regulation cuz there's two types of viewers that I think or listeners who are listening to this right now there's people who have never been this before it's their first time all right like this guy up here uh and then there's people who have been here before 2018 holders last be Market holders even veterans previous and I think those two classes of individuals those two cohorts are experiencing the bare Market in very different ways let's let's talk about the first cohort those that are on the first cycle uh if you recall kind of your first cycle and you know how you experienced the bare Market what are these people thinking right now what are listeners who've never been

through this thinking yeah so there there's the mentality of it's all over and it's never coming back and uh I've been in crypto for the last 6 to 12 months 12 months if you're lucky six months if you're unlucky uh and uh am I really ready to stick it out for an unknown amount of time like how much of my life do I want to get dedicate to this thing uh I was here to because numbers were going up but numbers aren't going up anymore numbers are down only so why am I here and also where is the light at the end of the tunnel I don't see it that's probably the perspective of a lot of new holders especially ones that like part part of the conviction of older holders is they've had the time to

understand fundamentals and fundamentals is where you get your conviction from right and so like fun having conviction is where you can take just beating after beating after beating because you have conviction and so it's harder to conviction when you came in just like six months ago cuz like again it's everyone's more comfortable when they invest in what they know uh and so the new the first cyclers are getting tested at the moment uh so they're real scared they're real scared it's like an emotional ride more than anything right I mean you see the numbers kind of evaporate and uh do you know from your from all your psych classes and your psych training David like the five stages of grief uh you know I think that's what happens to you in a crypto market and I I recall all the lingering questions I had in the last uh you know

crypto bare markets like what was I wrong what if this never recovers what if this time it's actually different I know in previous Cycles crypto has recovered but what if it what if it doesn't this time and I literally believe I went through the five stages of grief right like first it was denial uh it's not it's just a dip this just a temporary thing I feel like last weekend kind of smashed that idea um this is this happen so fast and so drastically it's it's hard for people to say this is just a dip and then in the stages of grief there there's anger right so you start to get mad at oh it's the whales playing their whales game the whale games and liquidating people or like f Doan he's the reason for this or now more recently like Celsius F Celsius uh

and then it's like bargaining okay so you get through the anger stage and you're bargaining you're like okay well what if it's not so bad what if like you know what if this like Rel rally coming right yeah there's a relief rally there's always some piece of Hope around the corner this new legislation is good for crypto and you're like oh this is going to be way longer than I thought and you get into that depression phase of things where it's like oh my god what have I done I've made a huge mistake I'll never financially recover uh and then you get into the acceptance phase um and that's the stage that is actually most beneficial for you during the bar run if you can if you can get through all of those other four stages and get

to acceptance like that's the stage at which you'll start to level up and start learning because then you go okay what have I actually learned from this exper experience and how do I rebuild right that's that's when you can start learning writing um trying new things uh figuring out where to allocate your portfolio for the next bull market I I tweeted this earlier today I felt smart during the bull market because I did you feel like a genius at first but I became smart during the bare market and that's really what happens and the reason it's such an emotional role R coaster is there are a whole bunch of people who came into 2022 feeling like a genius like feeling like they were on top of

the world feeling like they were a badass crypto investor and now this Market is just punching them in the mouth and showing them that uh well things can go down too and when they go down they can go down drastically uh any any of their thoughts for the first time uh cycler here David yeah the thing the thing that I've been feeling recently is like the is unprecedented at the moment is like these interest rates right and so this is one of the differences between last cycle and this cycle is last cycle crypto went down uh regardless of like macro conditions and this cycle is different because it is going down because of macro conditions maybe it was going to go down anyways but it was def it's also like being accelerated with how fast it's going to

go down because of interest rates right and so like that in my mind has caused me to have feelings of oh maybe this never recovers and I don't like never like never never never but like maybe this takes like a unprecedented amount of time for to recover because how can crypto go up when there's when interest rates are going up and up and up right risk on assets don't do well in high interest rate environments uh oopsies sorry what's yeah sorry I accidentally uh do you want to stop sharing real quick if you don't mind um I was goingon to say you know what's funny about that David is because like as scary as that is I feel like that's less scary than the narrative around last cycle so last cycle in 2018 there was this narrative that crypto was useless ethereum didn't have any product

Market fit like it was just a big Ico token scam and this time no one is disputing that crypto has some product Market fit now it's like oh the macro environment will continue to crush crypto which is a a really big seed change here and I think less scary in some ways than the previous cycle what's what are your thoughts yeah out out of 2018 I was like oh the Ico Mania that was it is true what the bitcoiners were saying about the icos that was correct like there was nothing there and I'm like well then I had to like question myself well why am I here then because there was literally nothing else on ethereum uh that was really there for a very long time post Ico Mania to really get me excited and that's just like not true about today like especially like

and this is one of the the things I'm feeling is that it felt it felt so close like Victory felt so close for crypto we had like so much progress like defi had such strong fundamentals we have things that are actually like replacing the problem of the Federal Reserve res ve like like whiplashing the market around with like zero interest rates like no raising rates and like all these people trying to Tinker with the market and we have solutions for all the broken what I feel is the broken parts of the of the world economy and like it felt so close but now in hindsight I'm like well no there's like so much adoption away so like there's the only way that we really get through this is time regardless of a bull market or a bar Market the prices don't matter the only way that crypto

wins is with time uh and so you just have to Ste like sit down in your convictions and and get to that point of just like I'm ready to wait out an infinite amount of time in order to see crypto because I know it will eventually happen regardless so what you just said David for the first timer for the unicycler that's the acceptance phase we're talking about if you can cycle through the denial the anger the bargaining depression and get to acceptance where you're just like hey this is going to take some time maybe take a while take months maybe take years then you can get to a place where you're much more and stoic about it and then that is that is how good investors invest is they remove the emotion from the situation they

become stoic now the second audience that we mentioned are those Veterans of course who are kind of looking at this and the one thing I would encourage uh some the veterans who are seeing kind of the panic and and and the fud and um just the fear out there in the market is hey guys like be patient with first cyclers I mean do you remember when this was you it wasn't that long ago you're feeling these same emotions uh and um I will say I think you made this point like even the veterans are kind of surprised by the speed of this draw down uh yeah is is this kind of unprecedented from that perspective yeah to to start from the beginning like there's there's two reasons why first cyclers the 2021 2022 cyclers uh are uh feeling more pain

than the veterans uh one is because they bought the assets at a higher price so like it's obvious that they're feeling more pain they bought ether at $2,000 or higher whereas the veterans bought it at like between 80 and $500 and so like well literally there is actually a difference in pain there because of with the the initial like cost of buying these assets and so like that's a source of initial pain and then the other reason why first like rers also feel so uh uh more pain than the veterans is because the veterans have felt it before uh and so like the veterans are more emotionally prepared to say we have been here before and like this is just how it goes where the first cyclers are like the sky is crashing like the the world is coming down and so like there's two

reasons why like veterans are who they are and and the noobs are are who they are and yet at the same time hash this time is it's different because of the goddamn interest rates Ryan is the interest rates that rugged us uh and so like in 2018 when when crypto when ether went from $1,400 down to 80 Bitcoin went from two $20,000 down to three3 $3,000 there were no interest rates like maybe there was like a little but it went away so fast uh and so like even the veterans have gotten blindssliding by the speed ofc of of the macro markets and so like that actually is like if you want to blame anything like blame the FED like they printed a bunch of money they sent us all to the moon and then they and

then they rugged Us by raising interest rates which was should be expected in hindsite it's obvious but also like yeah I kind of feel like the fled should the FED should take some blame here yeah I I do too although like the part of the acceptance phase I think is is coming to terms with like the only person you have to blame is yourself uh all right so like it it is very easy in maybe the bargaining phase to just like point at other people and start blaming them but like ultimately a good investor sees through like the mechanisms of the sister the system and you know makes choices and could have seen some of this coming but uh let's talk about the prices then David so what actually happened to a price say maybe let's start with the uh the S&P 500 and

equities because that's uh telling a tale for us uh what have equities looked like over the past year or two uh yeah so we the equities markets from the peak which happened in J January literally at the start of the year are is down 22 and a half% over 161 days uh so is that over is that half of a year yeah that's almost half of half a year uh which is pretty damn pretty damn good for a decline yeah under 20% it's definitely bare Market territory for equities and we've just crossed crossed it and and the difference here is that uh it's it's down 22% over like half of a year versus the covid crash which was down something

like 35% but it recovered in half of a year and so like the pain was sharp but then everything bounced back and actually people made a lot of money on that bounce back this doesn't feel like the same this is like you can actually count on the market going down now like the trend there's always that Meme the trend is your friend well Ryan the trend is down now uh and it has been that way and so like and you can see the same thing in the NASDAQ so here's the NASDAQ coming in at negative 31% down 31% over 217 days and this 217 day number it's going to uh it's also true for ether it's also true for Bitcoin uh so it looks like we're just for some reason correlated to the NASDAQ more than we are other markets but yeah what's funny is if you look at these charts see if

you can spot where uh liquidity was injected by the FED into the market oh wow here right and then let's see if you could spot where it was taken out right around this this uh phase we're going to talk about some of the macro causes but before we get there how about before we go too far go back to go back to the NASDAQ uh you can see like you look at that that trend from 2019 up to 2021 like that's a decent line and then it just like shoots up into a parabola right and we're like kind of like back onto that normal like line that we are um but also that line also had quantitative easing in it as well and 0% interest rates uh and so uh zooming out it might show a different story all right here is here's ether uh topped at

the market at basically $4,900 where and then we when I took the screenshot I actually don't know what prices are prices are super volatile right now uh we are at roughly $11,200 which is down 76% in 27 days so we have 217 days of down which is pretty damn crazy and these are weekly candles run so every single bar represents one week of time that is uh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 weeks of red and that was only the second half of the downtrend uh and so there was some green in the first half but the the last 12 weeks has been all red which is a record a record of by setting by three

weeks there's I I think the most previous record of uh in a row weeks for Bitcoin at least was was nine we are up to 12 now uh yeah so here's Bitcoin 67.9% down over again 2117 days uh so ether down 75% Bitcoin down 68% uh o how about total crypto Market uh cap what are you looking like yeah total crypto market cap is also down 68% uh so down from just o uh above $3 trillion to just below $3 trillion and the reason why and Ryan why the crypto market cap is down equivalent to bitcoin which doesn't make any sense it should be down way worse than Bitcoin because all the liquid coins of the world go down way worse it actually got buffered

by stable coins so stable coins are included in that that those numbers rotating into stable coins right yeah so uh even even the stable some stable coins have lost uh market cap like tether has seen outflows usdc has actually seen a marginal inflows um D has Us lost a little bit Yeah us down bad of course um D is losing flows as well um but yeah the total crypto market cap is is down uh 16 9% o at times like this David I always like to uh get the big picture perspective like the fundamentals perspective and see where this Market's going look at look at the bare Market screener here and this is from misari and they've got a a good tool that allows you to see some key

stats like um all-time highs right and so here's the two assets to focus on right now Bitcoin and E here and uh look at this David we've got a bitcoin price at the time that we are recording this 22k um and ethereum price uh ether price of $1,200 uh market cap dominance is something to take a look at so Bitcoin now 45% market cap dominance you expect that to probably continue to rise a little bit during the bare Market maybe a lot uh ether at 15% we'll see what the merge does to those numbers but when people are bearish they flee to the safer assets the ones with more longevity which right now is Bitcoin and then you look at the the time from

all-time high for Bitcoin and eth so seven months for both Bitcoin down about 7 uh 68% from alltime high right now ether down 75% from alltime high and once again the speed at which this is happening this kind of second leg down is pretty staggering especially for uh for ether um the cycle low for ether right now is about 1,90 so we're not too far off that cycle low in fact that happened 12 hours ago so we're continuing to hit new lows right and uh the Bitcoin cycle low just happened 13 hours ago just over 20k was the cycle low here um the thing I really

like to do is of course like there are lots of other assets that are much uh like down uh bad much much more so including cardano 84% xrp 90% salana creeping up to 90% Dogecoin 92% such as what what you kind of expect um but if you look at previous Cycles here so in 2013 and 2015 the only asset really worth considering was Bitcoin uh that went down during that bare Market 82% all right so once again we are we are now down 68% for Bitcoin during the 2013 bare Market that went down 82% there's still a ways to go if it

repeats that uh 2013 bare Market in the 2018 bare Market Bitcoin went down 83% all right and ether went down 94% so ether right now down 75% from all-time highs and pre in the previous bare Market it went down 94% all right um I tweeted this out this morning just because I was interested in running the numbers if we repeated the last cycle then ether would hit about 28 $80 at max pain that's if it went down 94% from its cycle high and it just kind of did the exact same thing as the

previous cycle and Bitcoin would hit 11,400 at max pain which would be 83% now I am not saying we get there in fact I I don't think we will get there right um and it's important to remember that the Cycles rhyme but they don't repeat so we'll go down we're going down the same way but the question of where's the bottom these numbers uh are good to keep in mind and something to track is how far are we down from alltime high what are your thoughts on this David yeah Chris berisi had a a pretty interesting tweet that I thought was a good perspective to share where he said uh during the next cycle then the coming cycle which will eventually happen

because they always do um like ether and let's make up some numbers here Bitcoin will be at like 100,000 $200,000 ether will be at $20,000 at when from that perspective when you look at the current price the current price it is at will feel pretty bottomy pretty damn close to the bottom and it could still go down another 50% because those both will feel like pretty close to the bottom from the perspective of the future cycle right so like where ether is now is it at $1,000 is it at $500 but maybe ether bounces between $500 and $1,000 for like a year and then the two years three years I don't know but then it's going to go up and do

something crazy because that's how Cycles work uh and then at the peak of the next cycle you're not going to tell the difference between $500 and $1,000 like it's it's going to from that vantage point that difference is going to look so minuscule but from the current but from the current Vantage Point like $500 is another 50% draw down uh and that could happen like that's not necessarily off the table like another 50% draw down uh that puts us at like $600 uh and so it it always matter depends on your time frame your EXP exposure and how much you're willing to lose but like there there's a there's a case where like crypto just like goes it down another 50% perhaps that's the bottom and then it goes up 50% down 50% up 50% down 50% for a really long time

uh before the next cycle starts uh so that's kind of like the perspective I wanted to share with that yeah we could definitely see some chop guys uh we we have a lot more to discuss including what's actually driving this bare Market from a macro perspective and uh also want to get into like how to play it how to think about it how to survive maybe that's the theme uh and we're going to get to all of those things David you want to say one thing before we cut to sponsors and get back one one thing a part of like the whole like emotional regulation and like checking your own sanity and something that is definitely happening right now and is probably going to get worse as prices go down is that like mainstream media and crypto haters out there are gonna fud the absolute crap out of everyone like it

like where like like people who were crypto natives they had the advantage when prices go up anti- crypto people has the advantage when crypto prices go down so like mainstream media and like on crypto is going is in Vogue right now and it's going to become even more invogue regardless of how how even some equities are down the same percentage or even worse than crypto like mainstream media is going to become cool to to knock on crypto it's going to become cool to like talk about how all you crypto people like you thought it was a new paradigm you thought your crypto assets were like going to SA you haaha like the people that are going to take advantage of just like canceling crypto is that's going to happen you're going like your friends who never got

into crypto are going to like send these links to you and and they're going to be like oh look at this look at all these like money that all the crypto Bros are loing losing hah haa because they weren't they never participated in the bull market so like now the shoes on the other foot uh and so like be prepared for that is like the fud is going to come for the crypto industry and this this is partly why I wanted to to do this live stream Ryan is like the one thing that crypto the crypto industry has is like that other markets don't is each other like we are really good at coming together as a community especially when things contract during uh bare markets we all can fit inside the same room uh and so while we just get get absolute crap thrown at us from

the outside I just want to like warn people that this like the mainstream media is going to come to FUD crypto so grab a buddy uh and grab your conviction and stay with it because like there's a storm coming of just like anti- crypto narrative because that's what happens when price goes down and it's to be expected guys get ready for everyone to call crypto a scam because that's what they're starting to do and uh they're going to see see I told you so that is part of what you have to resist during every crypto be Market we're but if you stick through the bare Market you get to tell them I Told You So during the next cycle so like like that let that be the light at the end of the tunnel yes if if uh if that's the thing that drives you

yes guys we will be right back with uh some more thoughts but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible arbitrum is an etherium layer 2 scaling Solution that's going to completely change how we use Defi and nfts over 300 projects have already deployed to arbitrum and the Defi and nft ecosystems are growing rapidly some of the coolest and newest nft collections have chosen arbitrum as their home all the wild defire protocols continue to see increase usage and liquidity using arbitrum has never been easier especially with the ability to deposit directly into arbitrum through through all the exchanges including binance FTX wobe and crypto.com once inside you'll notice arbitro increases ethereum speed by orders of magnitude for a fraction of the cost of the average gas fee if you're a developer who wants low gas fees and instant

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talked about um the crypto bar Market how people are are are feeling that what the prices look like how it compares to previous cycle now David let's just spend some a bit more time we've alluded to this a bit but let's talk about what's really driving this bare market right so the last bare Market was really kind of the uh the EVAP like the loss of steam the loss of energy in in the crypto market right people like got sick of all of the the useless tokens and the Ico raises and just ran out of steam ran its course this is no external factors just internal energy just like the battery got drained people got there really weren't any external factors this this is much different in fact some people were um doubting that this was

the bare Market because we actually hadn't seen crazy highs for Bitcoin or eth yet right like a 10x from the bottom for eth that's something but like it could have easily hit 10K could have easily hit 15K we could have gone to like 2300k with Bitcoin before it was all over and so let's talk about the reason that um you know I guess maybe the bubble is getting pricked a little bit with crypto and the bare market and it's all about macro so we've got a pmic we've got inflation we've got recession we've got War all of these things are tied together in this unsustainable fed and fiscal policy uh and also of course a war and I think these are the bad

times that are really affecting crypto as an asset class because the world still very much sees crypto as a risk on asset what do you think certainly yeah and this is a part of my fear that crypto is never going to come back which of course I do not think but like there's a Curel of that there and the reason for that is because well crypto's never seen Rising interest rates Rising interest rates are a significant source of the bare market and also I'm really really skeptical Ryan that the rising interest rates are actually going to work because so much of inflation is coming from rising food costs which is on the back of rising oil costs which is on the back of a war in Eastern Europe uh and like the fed the rising interest

rates is not going to solve the war in Eastern Europe uh and so uh but this is definitely one of the reasons why like especially with spending spending got through the roof because crypto assets were going through the roof and also we send a bunch of stimy checks afterwards and so there's one part of this conversation where inflation is the source of the rising interest rates but it's also raising interest rates are not this the actual solution for that uh but uh as you kind of alluded to like this is crypto has never seen uh price action so dependent on the macro markets and I think that the big lesson that even the crypto veterans are learning in this present moment is like what does it mean for the FED to rise raise interest rates and does it impact our markets turns out

even though crypto is like a completely parallel Financial system all Financial systems are ultimately connected at the end of the day I very much get that concern because if this is um a macro problem like an economic problem that can't be solved very easily right you start to think about like the 1970s for inflation and how long did it take the US and the world to climb out of that to get inflation rained in I don't know good five years at least maybe 10 years you also start to think about kind of like uh the 1930s and you know really into into kind of the the the 1940s and you had jet debt to GDP ratios um below actually what they are now and you think of like

like Co and the response to the pandemic being sort of like a a wartime level economic stimulus from a fed and fiscal policy perspective and it took the world a while to dig out of that trench and so you sort of Wonder okay if we've just um spedrun the 1920s The Roaring 20s uh well are we now in the the 1930s and that was a pretty rough era for the world and you combine that with inflation of like the 1970s too and it doesn't seem like there is a even if crypto has incredible product Market fit even if crypto continues to build and continue to chug away you have to ask yourself how long will it take for these assets to uh to get back in price and I

think that is the main bease for this whole market and the reason why there are a lot of people commenting a lot of people talking about cryptos can continue to go down it's never going to recover if it does recover it's going to take many many years M yeah that's definitely the sentiment that I've had where like I wasn't ready to call the bar Market at 1,700 but now that we're down to like 1,00 well the the more pain there is the longer this thing is going to go on which maybe to one half that scares the the first cycler but also that's a huge opportunity because if you are feeling pain you want those numbers to like go down and stay down for a long time because that means you have the biggest opportunity to buy into those markets for the longest amount of time

so like that that is something once you can get past the the pain and get calm again you can start to realize like yes I get to stack eth at like the best price possible or your preferred crypto asset whatever that is is um on the the other half of this conversation there there's the adage of uh you know don't fight the FED uh and this worked with really really well when crypto prices were going up because the FED kept on printing money uh Whenever there was a market tumble the FED would just print more money uh and so the don't fight the Fed was great for crypto assets all assets like when it when there was money printing but you can't in in hindsight it makes sense now but as soon as the FED decided to Pivot and be like go from quantitative easing to quantitative

tightening going from 0% interest rates to to 3% interest rates targets by the end of the year you also need to not fight the FED uh and that means on the downside as much as the upside you don't get to flip bullish uh just based off crypto fundamentals just because that uh that is part of the the crypto Narrative of like you know crypto's here to take over the world which it is but again it takes time not not asset prices uh and so like now I'm in the in the mindset of th this thing these things aren't going to turn around until the FED pivots uh and what so really the question is what is going to make the FED pivot because as crypto gets adopted it gets more and more integrated into the real world not less uh we don't we don't completely dis decouple from the from

the traditional Financial Market until crypto is significantly larger than it and we have a long time until that's true so like right now I'd say like and this is true for all markets and this is also something that's unprecedented is all markets equities markets crypto markets are all moving together like they're all moving together because the fed's raising interest rates and so we the the question to ask yourself is what's going to make the FED pivot again so that it stops like punching the market in the gut over and over and over again I think that is the big question like my mental model for things is like um if if liquidity is like gravity you know fed has the most Mass right and so it it commands the most gravity it is the sun in the center of our financial solar system and all of the other

central banks and planet and assets revolve around it and at the the mass the level of liquidity that crypto is it's just a tiny planet I don't know like we might be the like the you know we might be Pluto dude like we're pretty damn small maybe Mars right like something like this and really if if if the if the sun decides to do something the FED decides to do something we're just kind of along for the ride until crypto Acres enough Mass to sort of decouple from uh the central banking system which uh which could happen but we are a ways away from that um this is one of the themes I think that we're going to be exploring a lot on Bank list though David which is over the next like 3 to six months into the bare Market is figuring out what the FED is going to do

next so an episode that we have coming out today on inflation with Jim biano is kind of his take on you know why why inflation when's it going to end uh what is the fed's response going to be to this because um there is the reality that the FED doesn't want to induce Mac max pain and cause another depression right it's going to have to turn things around at some point in time so what are the catalysts for that what signs should be we be looking for and how do they get out of it and what happens on the back of that those are areas that I think we want to level bankless listeners up on so we're be doing a lot of macro content over the coming weeks and months yeah and that episode with Jim bianos is in three hours so if you're watching on the

YouTube right now come back in three hours and we're going to be asking Jim Bianco these questions pretty damn soon here um the other the other thing I wanted to bring up is that like uh fed the FED pivoted started doing quantitative tightening reducing its balance sheet increasing interest rates not too long after that like Luna crumbles and there is no coin coincidence that that happened uh and like now like then crypto prices go down even more and now it's Celsius that is being caught with his pants down uh and now there's rumors that three arrows capital of all places like complete rumor un unsubstantiated we don't know but like three erors capital is also perhaps uh in ins solvent at this particular moment uh that's what I want um yeah like that's oh that's a great

tweet Ryan nice one oh wow uh and so uh this is what Rising interest rates are actually supposed to do so if you cannot as a financial asset or a project survive raising interest rates and you collapse because of that this is what's called like the tide going out and we are catching people who are aren't wearing swimming trunks uh as it turns out there was not enough of a liquidity base under us to syst sustain Terra as it turns out Celsius was not able to uh offer all of its redemptions unfortunate reality of this is it's also to to do with you can't withdraw a staked ether out of the beacon chain and so they got kind of stuck with that but also they can't service their withdrawals uh and so like this is what be like bare markets and

Rising interest rates do they flush out the the fluff of the markets they we are currently burning the underbrush and ultimately this is healthy so once this underbrush gets finish getting burnt like that's when we we get reduced down to our fundamentals and that's where generational wealth is made we are just in this like flushing out period of all the underbrush that was unsustainable that got out over it it ski tips uh and so like like the the point of this tweet Ry that you put together is that like somebody's next and like people are getting liquidated and a and compound and these are all microcos like mini versions of these big ones like this is the General market flushing it out uh and so if you can stay uh and if you can keep yourself over

your like on top of your foundations and also lean into like buying opportunity uh this is how you make generational wealth uh just don't get out over your ski tips yeah I think um what PE people think that Luna and Celsius and these things are the cause of the bare market and it's like no it's it's actually a symptom right so what what happens in these sorts of bare markets is um all of the the weak assets get flushed out right it's it's a real detox and as you were just saying David that's what that's what makes it more healthy on the other side is because like unlike the two big defail banking system in you know8 which kind of got a um you know full prop up by the central the central banks in the US and a complete bailout

crypto doesn't have any bailouts coming its way so what happens to like basically a banking system for a stable coin like an algo meme meme um like algo stable coin like Luna it gets completely destroyed it literally goes to zero that's what we saw happen with Celsius the same sort of thing is happening now I don't think Celsius goes to zero they have a lot of assets many of which are are locked up it's not going to be the same as Al Luna I you know I'm hopeful that those listening there were over a million people David that had deposits in Celsius right this is again a a case of a you know bare Market lesson right not your keys not your crypto all right if you're depositing into an institution this is not decentralized Finance you don't have access to R Keys you have no

idea you're just putting it in a black box and Celsius is you know moving some of it over here to earn yields moving some over here taking some risk you're not aware of okay the at the end of the day you lose control this is not decentralized Finance C uh this is centralized Finance um and so this is what happened and uh but I don't think that Celsius and and all of the depositors are you going to zero um hopefully they get some of their assets out of this it just might take some time but the big question is what is the next weak player in the market market right as you were saying David there's some talk of some major funds being weakened by this there's certainly a lot of collateral that's getting liquidated by cascading prices going down and and you

sort of have to wonder what's going to be next so this is definitely a time to protect yourself um so make sure that you are not in any kind of risky positions maybe think about how to take more custody of your own crypto assets maybe think about where you are lending out your assets uh this is certainly a time to uh to to to bring all of that forward and uh and to learn some lessons but David do you want to switch to um to the recovery okay so we are in kind of this this bare Market relapse period of time um what do you think about uh what what is your what is your bull case for Recovery here right so why are you continuing to hold your eth is maybe

another way I would ask that uh so at the risk of uh sounding tonedeff here um and I'm actually gonna go back and and zoom out just to provide some context uh in the the eras of high interest rates uh the high interest rate is meant to increase the value of a dollar because uh we value the value of a dollar is decreasing that's why we have inflation so a high interest rates incre increases the incentive to hold dollars so bond yields go up because there's more opportunity for but for dollar holders and bonds are appr proxy of dollar holders and also this is why real estate is always a really good investment during recessionary periods periods and periods of increasing dollar demand because people have to service their debts and so they need to buy dollars to

service their debts and if you have access to Dollars like you you are King uh when markets go down whoever's holding cash wins the most uh and so this turns into like a real estate like real estate is a f fantastic anti-ar Market asset uh because they're associated with cash flow so especially rent producing real estates uh and like real estate assets uh so like this is just a basic lesson of of just Market Cycles is that like real estate owners tend to be the best like weathers of all Cycles because in bare markets they have the cash flows to sustain themselves they have the cash flows to prevent themselves from going solvent now uh understanding that uh I also want to

talk about like the whole like crypto as an inflation hedge narrative so we have real estate as an inflation hedge there's like something I learned about all this Ryan and I'm going to connect all this in the end uh crypto is like treated as like oh it's an inflation hedge Bitcoin is an inflation hedge crypto is an inflation hedge and then the FED started raising interest rates and then the crypto assets started going down in price and people got really confused about like wait a second if they if crypto assets are inflation Hedges but then the FED is Raising interest rates to flight inflation why are the crypto assets going down and like I think if you think critically about this it actually makes total sense because if the FED is Raising interest rates they are trying to fight inflation and therefore they're also trying to

fight inflation Hedges at the same time so if they're trying to bring down inflation the value of an inflation hedge should also come down if they are successful and so in reflecting on the rise of of crypto prices like Bitcoin bitcoiners in the crypto industry saw inflation coming a mile away when like the FED saying like oh inflation is just transitory the crypto industry just laughed at that knowing that inflation is not transitory and in hindsight if we did know that that they were going to increase that would not be a statement saying that they would increase interest rates going into the future uh which would put a a price pressure on risk on assets and so crypto assets they're not

inflation Hedges they are just exposed to the anticipation of inflation and once that inflation is accounted for then the that's like the top of the crypto asset uh Market does this all make sense to you are am I explaining this okay yeah I think another way to say what you're saying is like anything inflationary long term is good for a commodity deflationary fixed Supply asset like crypto right it's good for all Commodities long term but in the short run I don't know if you remember our podcast we did on the dollar milkshake theory in the short run because so much of world debt is denominated in US dollars right there's this there's this like this slurping effect from like everything goes into like the one the Dollar's milkshake and so liquidity

dries up everywhere else but long term if you kind of zoom out and you like saying that inflation of the US dollar is bad for crypto doesn't make any sense inflation of Fiat systems and like the um the uh basically the the loss of legitimacy of the dollar as a reserve currency is going to increase the prospects of sound money assets like Bitcoin and ether and anyone who says contrary I I don't think has really looked at the fundamentals of this now what that does in the onee twoyear you know time Horizon that's a totally different question you have different mechanics at play but if you

zoom out and you look at like hey if the dollar is is going like 10 15% inflation every single year it's going to be good for the crypto industry I think that's what you're saying certainly that yeah yeah that's certainly what I'm saying and as the FED raises interest rates what they're trying to do is they're trying to reestablish legitimacy of the Dollar by making everyone like forced buyers of dollars uh but like to some degree the legitim legitimacy spell was already broken uh probably in like 2008 and definitely in 2020 when we just air dropped a bunch of stimy checks to the destruction of external economies that are pegged to the dollar because they didn't get any of those stimy checks so like as the FED raises interest rates they're actually fighting all of the anti-inflation assets like Bitcoin

crypto assets Etc so they are like raising interest rates is fighting crypto Assets Now where I was going with the the real estate cash flow conversation is that cash flows when you have source of cash flows to like as interest rates rise people need to buy dollars and if you have incoming dollars from cash flows like cash flows are everything to keep people solvent in in bare markets and like the reason you you ask like why am I holding on to Ether through the bare Market because ethereum ether has cash flows it has super strong cash flows uh and so uh proof of stake staking ether plus EIP 1559 is in a in a in a market where everyone is trying to get their hands on cash everyone is

trying to get their hands on cash flows ethereum has this source of cash which is itself which is totally independent and totally agnostic to external market conditions and so staking ether holding ether you get at Cash access to the cash flows from EIP 1559 now those aren't payments to you they're roundabout cash flows but meaningfully the economics check out uh and then you can stake that ether and actually do get cash flows again in the form of ether and so if you are prepared to uh not have to sell for dollars you have you have your living situation handled you have your food and housing situation handled like that the cash flows the native economy of ethereum has its own native cash flows which becomes an extremely extract

attractive from an external standpoint it's like where who in this in this bare Market in this recession who's got the cash and etherium generates its own cash flows which is how you become a decoupled self- sovereign economy but that is not something that is learned in one year two years five years that is learned over a very long time Horizon uh if you can stomach through the bare Market yeah I do I do agree I think deflationary cash flows which is something that only like ethereum really provides right now nether as an asset that will uh become the thing to uh to have you know over the over the in the coming years what has to happen first and I think this is what's really happening is um crypto is kind of front

running the pain of even equity markets right it's like ether down 75% you know the S&P only down 22% that's got to drop even further in my mind I think crypto is kind of taking on the chin and sort of front running that and again this is getting into like speculation territory so it's kind of like moving into like David and I's wild ass guesses right of what might happen like we are probably fundamental like we are just fundamentally bullish on crypto and asset class for the next 10 years but we're kind of prognosticating trying to forecast based on what we think might happen over the next you know coming months or you know year time Horizon and that's where things get a little hazy but I think crypto is front running all of that I think equities will go down

and then I think once we understand what the FED is going to do next we'll kind of start to paint a bottom on some of these assets and then it comes back to okay what asset do you want to hold next because it ain't going to be dollars because dollars are going to be inflated away so what assets are you going to want to hold and I think that the world increasingly will move away from other stores of value and real estate and um and equities and start to evaluate crypto based on some of its fundamentals and in that world uh ethereum will be post merge it will look very strong it will still have product Market fit right the world the internet fundamentally needs a property rights uh layer okay defi is fundamentally going to be an

absolutely massive uh Financial system in the future um ether and Bitcoin are commodity assets that have sound monetary properties that FiOS systems don't and so they're going to start to ask themselves what do I want to hold so there's one way of looking at this market right now and kind of because you're feeling the pain of the bare Market you're you're sort of looking at this with uh I guess not rose-colored glasses whatever the opposite of that is like grayc colored stormy Cloud glasses Shor glasses colored glasses and you're saying like oh my God this is this could be like the 1930s crypto has never experienced this kind of macro uh economic um like recessionary conditions uh look at how fast everything think

like was this a bubble after all was this wrong okay that's the way you're seeing this Market the other way to see this Market is maybe retrospectively in a few years you don't want to be in a position of regret but like oh my God this was the greatest buying opportunity ever in crypto like potentially the last time I get Triple digit eth ever in my Lifetime right lifetime of generations to come and all of my children and I'm look I'm not saying this to make you like fomo into it okay like that's the conviction that I have personally and the reason like I'm super excited to hold I'm super excited to buy at triple digit eth but like that's not a conviction you should get by just

listening to this to daveid and I talk about this episode that's conviction you have to develop yourself got to earn it and you have to earn it and this is when you earn it it's during the bare market right so the question of like when do I buy is sort of the question right so if you are first of all you have to get convicted if you're not convicted like just don't listen to what David and I say go develop your own conviction okay just like stop the podcast and figure out what this asset class is for yourself all right um once you do that once you have conviction then the next question you ask is okay when do I buy and personally David I think that's kind of a Fool's erron okay I think trying to time the bottom is a difficult thing the

simplest Easy Button approach is you dollar cost average in it's what we've always said just dollar cost average in all right if you want my take on a guess on the bottom I think we're going to Triple digits all right I think we're going to 80% plus I think we might head towards 83 85% 90% would be the high estimate I don't think we're getting to 95% okay but these are wild ass guesses if if you don't want to like play The Guessing Game and go hard mode just start dollar cost averaging in it's a bare Market we're really close to you know triple digit eth so like that's that's the question and then the other question is like okay so how much should I put in and I don't even want to begin to answer that question for anybody else it's an

inappropriate question it's an inappropriate question the answer that question is always this is this is back we're back to crypto OG lessons here veteran lessons is don't put in more than you can afford to lose okay why because we could be wrong you could be wrong even if you have extreme amounts of conviction it's still a probabilistic bed all right and you don't want to put yourself in a position where you are like risking your food or your shelter or your family's livelihood your relationships yeah right but like but also the answer to that question is also I think sometimes people are like oh well you know it should be 3 to 5% of your net worth and that's the number no it's not look if you're if you're young if you have a roof over your head right you're not worried as much about the

future a bid you're living home in a basement like why would you only do 5% it's not it's not going to affect you if you do something higher it's not going to you know really be more than you for to lose if you're doing like a much higher uh a greater amount and so um I don't think a specific number is right just make sure it's a number that it doesn't like if things were to go wrong and if it were to zero out all right if if all of this was completely BS if the world's on fire if crypto goes to zero like what would your position be right are you going to be okay as a result of that when you buy the crypto assets pretend that your money just got deleted like yes it it do not account for it again

until until the Bull Run happens and the only question next is like at what price do I sell and so like when you dollar cost average in pretend that money is going into a black hole and you are not able to go get that it goes into a piggy bank you're not able to see into the piggy bank you don't know what's there pretend that you do not have that money to pay for rent or your food or to like have a nice night out with your loved ones exactly that's exactly what you should do um and then I don't know if we have any kind of concluding advice on how to survive the the bare Market but like I would just go back to like listen to the crypto ogs and the Vets right uh no margin all right now you're seeing why you should have no margin crypto

crypto is volatile enough and you want to like strap you know like bombs on the back of your chest and go parachute off a cliff that's margin is like don't do that um you also realize they can always go down more than you expect like even some of the the ogs and the veterans were surprised at the speed of this and like the the pain um don't play the short-term games all right so we talked about Bitcoin and eth down like 60 75% uh there's a lot of other assets that are like have you looked at the dog coins lately David I don't right it's there's a lot of pain out there so these are some of the veteran lessons and I think we're kind of hearkening back to some of that old advice of like buy hold dollar cost average in just survive the

game of crypto is all about survival uh what else would you say David yeah like like I said at the start of the stream I'm one of the most fascinating things to me is the relationship between the the state of the markets and the state of human emotion and when you can regulate your emotions when you can become Mindful and get yourself like just bear down your teeth and grow some grit and buy into that pain that's when you are like God mode over your own state of mind uh if you can buy into your own pain and and DCA in while you have fear uh that's that is how you balance those things out so you are scared yet you are still buying um again if you are in the appropriate financial position to do that uh do not put

yourself in financial stress because then you only get more scared and then things get whack and so there is a nice relationship between just uh who's that quote Yeah wion Winston Churchill made that quote If You're Going Through Hell keep going the way that I interpret that is like if you're if you're scared if you're down bad but you keep on going you pick yourself up every single day you tuck away your savings you dollar cost average in and all of a sudden that pain turns into into you like Euphoria on the other side of things so like accepting the pain dollar cost averaging getting yourself exposure during times of pain turns into Times of Jubilation on the other side of things because you earned it uh and so like like there you can learn to feel good in the pain

because it's about hard work and it's about grit and it's about getting through to the other side where there is spoils eventually if you if you get through it uh the other thing I highly recommend to do is grab a bare Market buddy I grabbed a bare Market buddy in 201 2018 his name is Ryan Sean Adams and we made Bank list in the bare market so like go do something like you in addition to like dollar cost averaging go build something like learn learn to do something in crypto become a you're already community members uh so like become a community manager like learn how to write do something cool uh and do it do it with a squad of people find a telegram group uh become familiar with the people in there grow some bare Market buddies because like you're going

to make it through to the other side it's going to be more enjoyable uh if you have a squad to do this with uh and so that is the other advice that I would have for all the listeners that are flying solo and they have not yet found their bare Market buddy find your bare Market buddy I think that's a great way to uh to close things out then in the the bare Market Survival episode I'm reminded of something that Mark Andre said in our our podcast recently is stop pursuing happiness pursue satisfaction okay satisfa satisfaction that is a job well done that is something that has taken pain sweat you know sleepless nights but that you've earned on the other side and so many people I think um see those during people in crypto during the the the bull runs and they say ah

dude these guys just got lucky right all right um and there's an element that's true for people been there for 6 months to a year okay tell I did not feel lucky in 2019 I did not feel very lucky then I mean we're all like from a macro perspective we're look we're all Lucky we're living we're breathing we're in this time we're in this place so we're all lucky yes but we are also earning it and during the summer of 2022 and Beyond in this be Market this is where you earn it so when crypto and eth go to 10K bit coin goes crosses 150k on this way to 200k when they say you got lucky you'll be able to say no I earned it all right during the bare market is when you actually earn it and it feels good it's

not happiness it's satisfaction on the other side when you bet on things you're convicted about and again you got to be convicted right I'm not saying go double down on like a dogcoin that is down 90% just because it's down 90% I'm saying reestablish your fundamentals don't look at YouTubers for the next great idea all right uh even though this this is on YouTube right now the cring face YouTubers right but like go develop your own conviction do your own research that was a thing we used to say in crypto people don't say that anymore okay do your own research develop that conviction double down on that don't risk more than you can afford to lose and if you come out on the other side

and you were right that's where you get not happiness but actually satisfaction and that's where you earn your crypto uh gains as a as a holder and we'll be along with you for the ride okay Bist ain't going anywhere we were born during a bar Market we got a newsletter goes out six days a week make sure you subscribe to that we got a podcast we're doing that at least four times a week David as the bankless podcast you're listening to that right now and of course YouTube it's feeling like every damn day we're doing a YouTube episode These Days subscribe to that yeah come back in three hours absolutely uh make sure you like And subscribe David anything else before we close this on bristen disclaimers yeah just just to reiterate like the I remember in 2018 to

2020 like everyone was just so scarred by tokens uh there was this anti- toen like narrative I'll never touch another token again because it literally went to zero uh and then you know what happened next Ryan tokens went up DAV token some tokens went up some of and they did some astronomical numbers even by today's standards uh and so like link uh a synthetics did like 100 X's during the bare market and so if you dare there are opportunities out there you just have to go and find them uh and the cool thing is in bare markets Ryan it's actually easier to find Opportunities than it is in Bull markets because there's less noise the space is less crowded there's an easier like there's easier to access information asymmetries and the only way

you access those information asymmetries is if you stick around during the bear and also grab a friend because it's easier to find information when there's two of you or five of you or however many big your Squad is absolutely so there there's riches in the bare Market grab a friend grab a community as van Spencer said in a recent podcast you got to measure your progress Troth to Troth not Peak to Troth that's what you're looking at right now it's like those highs I'm off you got to do tro to Troth and we are still up uh from the last Troth and I believe we will continue to be uh wrist and disclaimers of course none of this has been Financial advice as we always say Bitcoin is risky so is eth so is all of crypto could definitely lose what you put in but we are headed

west this is the frontier it's not for everyone but we're glad