Did This Crypto Cycle Just Come To An End?

Transcript

Bas Nation we've got an emergency live stream so we only do this when either something really bad has happened or something really good has happened so we've had too many good things recently yeah so I went on vacation last week I come back to these charts David what they're they're calling this they're calling this Black Monday vies Monday all right so can you get me up to speed because I haven't paid attention to this I just started looking at it this morning can you start get me up to speed on what the heck happened I haven't seen one of these in a long time so the markets have really been rolling over for like two weeks now the equities Market the tech Market it started off with just like Nvidia uh just selling a lot of tech stocks selling people rotating out of the AI stocks that had

pumped when was this like last Friday the end of last week been this has been the last like two weeks of of traditional Trad equities Market discussions of just like oh like we we're having a pullback we're having a tech stock market AI pullback but that pullback kept on pulling back uh and it hit a an inflection point over this weekend uh and now has kind of impacted just broad markets Global markets so all Global markets this is not just a crypto thing this is if you are in the money in the world of money and finance if you world in the world of just like equities traditional markets whatever you want to however you want to say it like you're paying attention to this uh the uh spy the American equities Market is down at 4% Taiwan down 88.5% South Korea halted

the entire Market the the Turkish stock market if you pay attention to that is down 7% uh almost $2 trillion dollar is gone from the United States equities Market uh and it's being called like one of the worst single day drops since the covid dump in March of 2020 uh and so just ricocheting shattering uh uh echoing throughout like all Global markets everywhere and it all starts with the Japanese nay apparently uh and so what happened not terribly long ago last week really uh was that a suffering slow Japanese economy uh has created just instability in in the stock market in the Japanese nay nay is their their um their S&P

right it's their it's their stock market uh and as a result of this thing called a basis trade which is something I was learning about uh this morning between the United States market and the Japanese economy since uh the Central Bank of Japan was offering 0% interest rates they have still been in a Zer policy there's been a basis trade because the uh interest rates in Central America are at 5.5% so capital is free in Japan but it was expensive in the United States uh and so people would borrow money at at very low cost from Japan and then they would buy American equities bonds just invest in the American economy uh but last week the Japanese Central Bank raised interest

rates by 0.25% which is not that much uh but when people have leveraged up a basis trade in order to maximize squeeze the maximum amount of juice out of that trade that 0.25% increase in Japanese interest rates uh has Unwound a bunch of Trades so we're watching leverage in the traditional stock market unwind which impacts our equities markets uh which then Cascades all the way down into what we feel in the crypto markets which is just like an absolute hurricane because in the grand scheme of things were kind of tiny uh that's how I would explain it uh in a very short synopsis I'll explain a little bit better in a second uh but it's the single big move ever in the vix term so vix is the volatility index when vix goes up that's

bad uh the last big spike was of course covid uh so it rises above 50 and it's like kind of a a 50 is just like a self-referential number rises above 50 for the first time since the co dump uh and whenever vix is kind of like an indicator of a Black Swan like if you want to determine what is or is not a Black Swan you would look at the vix uh vix spiking is like something happened that no one was account for there's kind of this meme that there's like always hidden leverage in the system and we are now very rapidly discovering that it was in this basis trade between uh the Japanese economy and the American economy okay so I I have a few questions I'm not exactly sure where to start but like this is my impression of where I left things on vacation I was barely

looking at things but like on Friday there was like a week um jobs report like there was the the word recession back in the the air there was like felt like the market was giving back some gains I was like okay normal course of events normal of the market and I monitored things on Saturday but then Sunday hit okay this was Sunday the 4th and uh looking at last night yeah last night 12 12 hours ago yeah ethereum down like 25% ethereum dipped like close to 2,000 uhuh like I don't even know like on binance my understanding is it dipped to 2,000 I'm like what is going on like what on Earth is actually going on and like seeing this uh play out I I guess in the vix you could sort of see this

from a VI indicator this is similar to 2008 this is similar to the the covid March and this is what I was feeling David I was feeling oh my God this feels a lot like March 2020 at least in terms of crypto and of course trafy markets don't trade 247 right so crypto is a leading indicator on the weekend during Banker hours during the weekends that those guys take off crypto continues and so you see uh Bitcoin off ethereum like particularly brutalized yeah brutalized absolutely brutalized and I was trying to make sense of what was actually going on of course crypto Twitter is panicking you know um like complete complete turmoil from that perspective but and and then the the Nik which was trading

on Sunday because you know Japanese time zone hours that was off 12% so like something is rotten something is like not working in the existing system and you're saying it all comes down to this basis trade or is that the main depend it depends on who you are in the market I think if if you're in the crypto Market we also have to go look at Jump capital and ask why the hell they were just offloading tens of millions of dollars of eth into a very illiquid Market on a Sunday like that's also going on that's all but that's just for us crypto people we do have to ask that question I think everyone is trying to like look into all of these different inputs into the market uh and this is a meme that I think is the most viral meme of the last like uh day last 24 hours uh

and it's the uh it's the um I don't know thank you meme it's like the be honest meme yeah and this person is trying to is trying to like get signal from like what the f is going on in this market like it's the jobs report it's a weakening economy uh and then they're like be honest and then they're like okay no it's it's the Yen carry trade and the person replies no be honest and the person says I don't know and the person is thank you thank you there's like other things going on like Kay Harris is now uh encroaching on Trump's Victory and Trump is being interpreted as the pro markets candidate and so maybe the markets are actually pricing in uh a more like not an assured Trump Victory and so that that could have sent uh the stock market tumbling there's

leverage in the system who knows there's like a bunch of things rumors of War I even saw rumors of War like Iran and Israel are going to war there's like a bunch of things going on all at once on Twitter there was like a signal of um the The Dominoes located the like pizza restaurants located close to the Pentagon where like uh you know people track this apparently and like um pizza delivery orders were spiking which means like maybe the the Pentagon is huddling so there's like rumors of war types of things in the air as well but but let me understand this Japanese thing because maybe people don't really know where this is this selloff is coming from but I'm not sure that we can call it at this stage a Smoking Gun but it seems like there's something rotten with this um Japanese

carry trade you gave this to us in the intro I just want to make sure I understand this yeah let's down on this yeah oh yeah let's double down on uh what they're like what are we calling this um Tren carry trade yeah okay so how does this work what was going on what no longer works like how did this piece of the puzzle break okay so uh because of the devaluing of the Yen uh because the economy of uh Japan like I don't know why they're the the economy of Japan is faltering and then also they're raising interest rates but the yen is going down the yen is devaluing inflation is going up and so as a result of the devaluation of the Yen the Central Bank raises

interest rates in the same way that the American the United States Federal Reserve raised interest rates postco after a bunch of cast injected into the economy cause inflation uh we all know that inflation has been rampant and has really put a lot of economic pressure on uh like the lower half of the American economy honestly honestly like more even larger than than the lower half um and so as a result like the the Japanese central banks like we don't we don't want to have our people subjected to inflation inflation is bad so we're going to raise interest rates so the rates in uh Japan Central Bank of Japan uh the boj right went up was it at zero or is it something very low is that zero and it went up by 0.25 25% yes okay and

that caused a 20% red candle for ethereum that's on Sunday that's correct Theus the Japanese the entire Japanese stock market market to go down by 12% okay and because what was going on or the carry trade is at Z % rates from boj people are able to borrow the Yen for nothing and then they're able to buy an asset outside of Japan whatever that is United States 10e treasuries like Apple stock Bitcoin yeah crypto and then something else happens and then they profit from this trade because they're they're borrowing assets go up they're borrowing at z% they're borrowing free money and they're investing Longs so a.

25% increase starts to wreck that trade yes I guess I mean it's such a slight increase though it's a slight increase but it wrecks it in more ways than one so like a your costs of borrowing are going up uh and so now your loans that you have are you're paying the highest interest rate on and you might think that that 0.25% interest rate is like okay it's not that much higher and you're kind of right uh but also because they're trying to strengthen the N the Japanese Yen that is the denominator that all these loans are marked in so all these loans are they're trying to make the Japanese Yen go up in value which is what the loans are denominated in and so not only are the costs of borrowing going up but the actual value

of the thing that you have to pay back is getting more expensive too so it's a double whammy and then you can also add on the fact that they they might expect that the interest rate of the uh Japanese end is also going to go up higher than 0. 25% like they're not stopping there uh and so like imagine if you imagine if you're are very sizable trading firm or you're just pulling out a ton of loans we all know that prices are determined on the margins and so they are ma people are maxing out this leverage trade it's called an unwind for a reason and so it they people the marginal rational economic actor will take this risk up to the maximum to the point that a very small change in interest rates will actually impact the market and we always like I

said hidden leverage in the system everywhere uh and so 0. 25% it increases the value of the NK a lot of people feel that even if it's a little bit it increases the borrowing power uh it decreases borrowing power it increases like uh the cost of capital and then it's also indicative of further of all of this getting even worse further I get it so that there was this point of Leverage in the system it's been in the system for a very long time it's just com you know like this this is why compound people are taking more and more leverage the longer that there is a zero interest rate policy in Japan and this is why markets take the the staircase up and the elevator down it's like at a certain point there's some Tipping Point that that's reached and then suddenly a0 25% raise causes a c Cascade of

liquidation this is like bad leverage in the system and it's all withdrawn sort of at the same time so there's mass panic Nik is down 12% crypto is down like 20 uh plus percent. C can we look at the crypto charts so we've seen some of the trafi gore charts uh so let's recap what actually happened with crypto here yeah so uh Bitcoin daddy Bitcoin is set to close its worst week since FTX uh so that's our biggest red candle since the FTX event uh so congratulations to everyone who has experi both um it's only Monday it's only Monday yeah um in the world of uh liquidations I'm going to skip over this tweet uh we'll come back to jump in a second but in the world of uh liquidations over 1.1

billion dollars has been liquidated from the crypto markets uh in the last 24 hours uh 275,000 individual addresses have gotten liquidated uh just because prices went down so far so fast yesterday I remember tweeting out when uh eth eth went from like 2800 down to like 2600 and I was like H you know I'm just gonna s out a funny tweet wake me and I said Wake Me Up When eth hits 1900 like a devastatingly low number that we were never going to reach of course and 45 minutes later we were down to 2200 I was like yo no I'm just kidding because you tweeted uh and so this is what happens in crypto we like if you have been if

you've seen at least one cycle you kind of know that this can always happen the bottom can fall out of the crypto markets very very fast we can get very IL liquid very very fast uh so here's a tweet from woo blockchain according to binance binance the price indicator eth suddenly plummeted to $2,100 and then rebounded the amounts of Liquidations in one hour reached 370 million US dollar so 37 3, 3,770 million US Dollars uh got changed changed hands inside of one hour uh wow okay well this goes back to a question I have for you which is it did seem like on Sunday when all of this chaos was like when the market was like

realizing what was happening that uh ether in particular was more affected right I saw I saw ether versus Bitcoin it was like the difference was like 25% down or something like that in 24 hour or even like layer twos and bit ethereum related ecos it appears to have hit ether particularly hard and is that where this jump capital um like trading comes into the story here for some reason at the same time that we are having this unwinding basis trade between Traders arbitragers uh arbing the interest rates between Japan and United States completely unrelated to crypto markets jump has been dumping like clips of 10 million dollars of ether into the market like like hour

over hour over hour just like pummeling the eth price everywhere uh and I don't know how much in total that they have sold but it's in the hundreds of millions of dollars well this is a tweet here as a jump has been unstake unstaking likely dumping 500 million eth for the past two weeks and there's some onchain evidence uh like uh detailed in this cheat in in this tweet so 500 million is this like all of their eth like how much do they have left it is generally assumed by everyone that I've asked that like they are basically have fumes of their ether left maybe they have like 5% of their total ether left but jump has exited their ether position and it's ether in particular it's not all crypto assets it well it could be

Bitcoin it could also be their salana positions uh but you just don't have as much transparency uh as we have in ethereum when people go and they they dump eth into the market on etherium like addresses are tagged like there's so much transparency in the ethereum ecosystem there's a similar amount of transparency in salana but um it's not just not as much it's just not as mature and there's and there's Al also a lot less um soulle liquid on chain on salana than there is on ethereum in eth you dump it in OTC markets behind the scenes dump elsewhere yeah you dump it on binance you dump it on OTC uh but like if you want to get but eth is is like meaningfully liquid on chain and so we can all watch we're all watching D like e like uh just uh

jump just nuke the price of eth as they sell like clips and clip they're also sending it to binance as well um maybe that actually is where they've they've uh dumped most of their eth but they're sending it like to binance on the hour every single hour so you like they're going and then they're like liquidating and saying into to binance and they're liquidating uh and the big question is like why now yeah why now so so we we know it's certainly uh ether that they're selling we don't know whether it's just ether they're selling their other crypto assets we can't necessarily see that on chain but so let's assume they're just like selling a lot of their crypto positions rather than just focusing on ethereum that would be more consistent with I think the the evidence right I I don't think they're saying F

ethereum in particular necessarily I don't know why they do this on one particular Sunday unless they had word that like ethereum was you know had some sort of catastrophic um bug or something like this right so like are we just assuming drum jump is liquidating their position because they are starting to see how B I mean they're Traders right they're starting to see how bad things are getting on the Mac just trying to front run that I think there's a there's one valid uh theory about it there are other people drawing attention to the fact that jump is actually getting probed by the cftc uh and so jump is in some sort of like legal trouble with the cftc maybe this is a Fallout of that uh maybe like

uh main jump so there's jump and then there's jump crypto and maybe jump is uh taking a a position in the market as a result of the Decay as you said and as a result they're like informing hey jump crypto like like liquidate your crypto like let's go risk off uh and so they're like dumping their eth uh and so as a result of all of this like ether just gets absolutely pummeled above and beyond like all the other assets uh in inside of the inside the crypto markets so my reaction on Sunday David was um at first I was like oh this feels like 2022 again right and we said some big selloff events in like May and you remember 3 hours Capital it kind of hit right uh and then obviously FTX like that Wasa FTX yeah the most pain and recent memory

so it felt sort of like that pain and yet it actually felt like more like a date that was uh further back than that it felt in my mind a bit more like um March of 2020 do you remember March of 2020 this is podcast was getting started during March of the 2020 during the march dump the covid Black Tuesday uh it was Tuesday yeah and ether ether was down 60% in the 24-hour candle Ryan and I were recording the second ever Bank yeah and that that felt really bad and the reason it felt bad like the reason I considered what Sunday you felt like and it kind of that made this Black Monday bleed over and 2020 rather than 2022 is because it felt very like 2020

it felt very exogenous to crypto yeah so it wasn't SPF dquan Shenanigans it was some adjacent macro Black Swan that's happening that is just like completely outside of the control or apparatus of of crypto so was that and also the ferocity of the dump right like a boom candle yeah correlated with the other like um you know macro assets of course so it reminded me of 2020 uh how did it strike you like what are the other dates of this level of dumpage that that that come to mind for you 2020 was definitely because of the exogenous factor I think 2020 comes to mind uh but I was just in inside of the bank list Discord this

this morning everyone's in like one of the indicators of like how you know it's kind of like close to the bottom is that everyone is on Twitter everyone's in Discord everyone's unhappy and so as somebody who has experienced these dunks numerous times and gotten liquidated in at least a handful of them uh I have I have like Vibes to share you know like it's all gonna be okay uh I think the first ever big dump that I remember uh if I we don't want to go over to this chart like I have it pointed out in that screenshot that you have shown there but it was it was this one in Bitcoin in when is this November of 2018 so after Bitcoin has fallen 67% and it hits it bit the Bitcoin price after 2018 it hits $20,000 for the first

time and then it falls down to 6,000 and it hits 6,000 in February 2018 it goes 20,000 to 6,000 in February then it hits 6,000 again in April bounces back up to 10,000 it hits 6,000 again in June it bounces up to 8,000 it hits 6,000 again in August bounces up to 7,000 and then it stays at 6 to 7,000 between September and November and I'm like I'm like pH like 6,000 it's holding up so well like that's that's that's the bottom like it's just like I'm just going to buy all I'm gonna use all my remaining powder of which I had none because I was like already positioned anyways uh but I was like but like ding into these crypto markets for my first ever bare market

and I'm like oh you know what 6,000 not so bad and then in November of 2018 in a very short window of time it goes from Bitcoin goes from 6,000 down to 3,000 get it loses another 50% and that was my first that was like my first like oh my god what have I done is this you getting liquidated somewhere on this chart did thaten I don't think so any leverage that got washed away I think I'm just learning to use maker Dow in this time yeah and so I didn't have maybe I had like maybe I was on a dydx position but you don't hold dydx positions for very long I almost got wrecked during this whole like 2018 no I think it was more like 2019 I almost got wrecked with some Lage I had I did not I guess number two yeah that was probably more like during

Co I can't remember I was like that was a CO Dum yeah you like man you remember these because they're impressive on your soul how painful they are you are looking because you I remember the first time I got liquidated maybe maybe it was I can't remember the first time I got liquidated because there was two times that which that implies uh it's just like you realize this very powerful thing about leverage that like you can wait until the very end but if you unwind at the very end you have to unwind the whole thing to make any meaningful amount of difference on your position yeah like you have to sell like in order to protect your CDP your loan your position you have to sell so much of your actual principle to

protect yourself at all so it's so painful so you're at the very end and you're like well what's the point in even defending this position I'm just going to like clench my teeth and hope that this is the bottom yeah uh and I I remember that I think that a lot of people felt that feeling in the crypto markets over they just learned about leverage for the very first time it is the worst feeling imaginable when you're looking at you got like a liquidation price you're like oh I'm I'm going to get liquidated at eth at 400 and then it like drops down it's the middle of the night and it like drops down into the 400 you're like oh [ __ ] like what do I do oh I have to put more like eth on the line in order to back that loan and how

far do you push it is is a very bad position to be in when you have like margin in these types of Black Swan liquidation events is that why you tweeted if you didn't get liquidated today congrats you pass the test yeah uhhuh there's there's like a just a come to God moment I think what everyone kind of experiences just like it's just you and God at that it's just you two Jesus Take the Wheel you know I got nothing yeah but congratulations to everyone who is a not on Leverage I think you guys are just chilling sorry about your spot positions but like they're whole people who are on Leverage and did not get liquidated congrats you passed the test uh people who are on Leverage and then did get liquidated I'm sorry it hurts we will rebuild yeah this

is how you learn your job right now is to survive just survive right now and live to fight another day if if at all you can um you got a section on ETFs so what about ETFs is relevant here David uh let's see ETFs uh okay so we are watching uh the Bitcoin ETFs have all-time highs in volume not maybe not alltime highs uh 20 minutes into the trading session of today's uh Stock Market trading uh 1 three billion dollar in Bitcoin ETF volumes uh so that's that's quite a lot uh Eric balunis put out a tweet saying that like well High ETF volum volumes is actually just like everyone being scared but like the whole stock market scared so I feel like that was like well yeah have you seen the blood in the streets sir uh and like

high volumes is kind of what you want because you want High liquidity on both directions inside and out uh we don't have any data today because uh the Stock Market trading day is all over but it will be interesting to see flows who are the ETFs net buyers or net sellers of these crypto assets uh we'll see oh yeah how how how strongly do they like how Diamond hands are they is kind of a question like you know those uh bitwise commercials about ethereum being like open 247 aren't going to hit quite the same way when you're down on your 401k about 25% right now it's just like unfortunate timing I would say for ethereum of like it two weeks ago got the ethereum ETF and so you're like Hey Dad you can now buy ethereum you're 401K

two weeks later he's down like 25% it's so classic dude just like e gets it ETF and the whole entire industry loses 25% like it's the most classic asset of all time and perfectly cursed okay so there's a few other things that I want to talk about you got to ask the question how did defi do we got a to look at we got maker Dow to look at gearbox is a newer lending protocol that's on Leverage how did gearbox do uh I'm going to take over the charts and we're we're going to look at ebtc we're going to look at coin we're going to look at salana uh and then we're going to talk about the calls for a Fed pivot because now that something quote unquote broke we we get our pivot now right um that's what everyone is asking for so there's a bunch of other

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since uh you know 2022 and maybe it felt like uh you know March of of 2020 the question I'm looking for a silver lining on here here and my question is like but how did defi hold up was dii okay did we liquidate in a fair and efficient way did everything work according to a plan or were there some troubles so if you remember uh Ryan the last time the first and I think last time that meaningfully broke was during the covid dump of Black Tuesday of March of 2020 I think this is like di dep pegging yeah uh maker Dow uh loans CDP loans the things that are backing and renting and producing D in the first

place uh were getting paid back with zero collateral because uh as an ecosystem as a blockchain ethereum had never experienced High transaction fees before at that level like we had just come off of the one guay Paradigm for those that don't know ethereum gas fees on ethereum were one guay until 2019 where in 2019 they hit two gay for the first time and then it hit three gay and then it hit five gay and then things started to like never actually go back down and we were somewhere between like five sometimes 20 guay astonishingly for months uh but that was a new paradigm and like ether was like $100 so you're still talking about like one to five

cent transaction fees uh but we had established the Paradigm of gas fees and congestion on ethereum then the co dump happened and gas jumped up to 700 which applications were not ready for that people didn't know how to think about that that was just like unheard of a level of demand for ethereum Block space and as a result of that maker Dow had cdps that were paid back with zero collateral as in they were needed to be liquidated but because the liquidation transactions to pay back the cdps the ones that were supposed to go through they didn't have they weren't accounting for very high gas fees and some people like arbitragers figured it out and so

they could send a very high gas transaction like a 10,000 gas transaction and they would pay back a maker Dow loan for zero collateral and makeer D would just assume that that's what it was worth because it doesn't know uh and so defi broke during covid of 20 yeah and I would say when you say broke it was not a catastrophic failure like mkr didn't like um completely go20 million of bad debt that they had to back stop with the mkr token yeah so it wasn't Leman Brothers but we are talking about like a uh it didn't function you couldn't say it was like a thumbs up and it was worrisome right we were like okay it it's starting to wobble starting to shake here like could things get worse and what would happen could this cause a catastrophic failure so that was 2020

the last time we saw this how about now how about now totally fine not just absolute Breeze dude uh a has 14 active markets on various layer ones and layer twos so 14 different implementations of a not a single penny of bad debt uh$ 21 billion dollar deposited in a across all these different protocols not a single penny of bad debt uh a the protocol was rewarded with $6 million of revenue from all of these liquidations because that's how a works so a actually pocketed $6 million for providing the service that it provides to the market uh Sonny tweets this out uh a was rewarded with $16 million in Revenue overnight from decentralized six million yeah six million yeah and this is why building

defi is going to work Monae Supply who is out of the maker Dow ecosystem says $28 million liquidated on spark. which is a a maker Dow front end everything looking healthy so far Maker corvals only had 30 $300,000 liquidated so far although there's another $400,000 uh loan at risk not much so like not only is this thing working but also the people the layer zero that is actually minting D is actually being like Risk off which I actually thought was pretty interesting here was the thing that I was going to have my eye on because this is something so we we have a supply of stables at bankless uh and we put Stables to work inside of defi uh but it's our working capital so if if we

need to like tap into these stables in order to pay our employees uh we might need to use those stables and so where we put been in charge of that David I've been in charge I've been in charge of that uh and uh and so I have put them inside of maker Dow's s which is like one of the most conservative versions of yield for stables in uh in the industry I have considered going for the much higher uh yield of gearbox gearbox a little bit a little bit more aggressive with their farming you can also do leverage farming then and and this was a protocol that has not seen a full cycle and so as a rule of thumb hasn't seen a full cycle let's just wait until something bad happens gearbox did just fine uh operational across three three Networks no bad debt incurred whatsoever

uh even the newer protocols that are doing more aggressive uh yield farming are operating just fine uh ignis uh defi ignis put out a thread kind of just like looking at everything uh that talked about everything about defi uh no significant defi liquidations that cause anything to bad happen whatsoever so defi just gets another after all of the gold stars that defi got in the 2022 liquidations defi gets another gold star that's actually bullish that's that's actually great by the way I'm glad you brought up the point of a making like generating Revenue it's not just true for a it's also true you know increased volatility like uh future transaction fees for for UNIS swap also um do you

know the eth supply was on an upward uh trajectory right Supply was growing we're not like burning enough eth to comp compensate and make uh ether ultrasound money well this reversed things in the other direction so ethereum as I guess a protocol from a burn perspective making profit so high volatility days of high usage generally good for D5 protocols and what we want to see is that they do an efficient orderly unwind of efficient and orderly markets yeah yeah in in fact that's part of thec Charter they're supposed to be doing that but defi def is doing it and like a 20 to 25% draw down on ether that is not small it's not that is like BL Black Swan territory like imagine if S&P

took a 25% down day oh my God we there would be I would lock my door I also want to kind of shout out the LRT ecosystem this is another ecosystem that has not seen a full cycle and actually had its first meaningful stress test uh and so these are all the lrts that are lsts that are also wrapped inside of Igan layer that also have to very much do like protective risk management to not have a meaningful deep pegging event uh from all their collateral that's backing their LRT and so out of all of them they all did pretty well uh we're looking at you can see kind of the dep pegging the uh they they all have a discount to actual fair value because there's a illiquidity

discount that's applied to all of them so you have like Renzo ethery kelp swell and puffer uh Renzo coming in at number one as it's worst off the peg of 68 worse as in like that's as far as it went it's number one as in it didn't dpeg very much at all the worst that it got was 68% uh next best after Renzo was ethery at negative 1% followed by kelp at negative 1.25% followed by swell at negative 1.5% and Then followed by puffer at negative 4% these are all just like the spikes of the worst these are now all all of them are returning back to parity so even the LRT ecosystem which is brand new is also like pretty robust uh I don't know of any I haven't seen any sort of liquidations as a

result of LRT deeing so you got to kind of give a pat on the back to the LRT ecosystem too yeah speaking of that speak speaking of trading and volatility we should shout out our friends and sponsors over at matcha here they've got a new trading experience um what's this what's this since defi doesn't break if you are considering well we haven't even talked about how the all the other Charles Schwab uh Fidelity all these platforms are down and offline but MAA oh yeah is online and operational getting you the best price for all of your onchain trades uh and so if you were trying to save your CDP back stop your CDP like put more collateral inside of your loan or you needed to pay back anything I hope you used matcha because that is where you get the best price

even in extreme Market environments because matcha is a highly optimized order routing engine uh to make sure that you always get the best price uh if you are stressed out and needing to Source some collateral I would do it on Masha I have done this before can can you believe by the way that that that's trad's response to all this like circuit breaker they stopped trading yeah uh just like well no not only are they trading but like so many people were swarming Charles Schwab that like the website broke wait so Charles schwat like I I I saw I think um Exchange in South Korea circuit breaker stopped trading did stop the entire Stark Market that is what happened for like multiple hours right yeah can't you can't get it online uh yeah it's crazy uh you got

some charts here David so okay what do the charts tell us at this point in time um are you like you're zooming out a little bit right and seeing we're zooming out we're zooming out let me load up my charts again so we're going to start with other somebody else's chart that I follow to follow quite frequently much better at charting than me my drawings can I set up the question I hope you're gonna help answer this with with your chart section here David but like set up the question is okay is the bull market over is that it we dead now H do we just kind of like re reset wait for another four four years and like see you next cycle I would kind of like to pose the possibility that the bull market never started what I yeah I feel like I have

you on thumbnails is celebrating the bull the bull market somewhere in the bankless archives David how can I'm pulling it back I'm pulling it back uh okay so just looking at these charts uh so we we have two channels which are like you'll call it the bull market channels which is like if these things like meaningfully continue then certainly we're on a bull market as judged by like upwards appreciating price uh eth you can see how badly eth got pummeled versus Bitcoin can I zoom in anymore on these things kind of um uh and but eth has like tapped the bottom of this ch Channel when it got down to all the way down to like 2260 uh Bitcoin actually did not do nearly as bad as eth so either you think that eth is oversold or Bitcoin has more to go one of these two things it could

go either way again I'm not a charter uh but like putting these things into this channel is kind of interesting the channel itself intact like we have actually been up and to the right ever since uh the end of 2022 uh and so things are very far from exuberant but if you appreciate this channel uh which somebody might then you would see like oh actually this kind of like checks out we are just falling all the way back down to the bottom of the channel um this I also think here's another channel uh is the eth BTC ratio which has been going down Ryan for 700 days in a row that's tough that is tough tough for eth holders yeah yeah big how many years is that is that two years I mean it's

been we're coming up on two years now fantastic narrative for for Bitcoin as well so this might also be like just the strength of of Bitcoin this cin dominance is at like 55% right now which is like meaningfully high this is not what has happened in the previous two cycles right what you'd expect to see in a bull market scenario is that um non-bitcoin assets particularly assets like ethereum and others would appreciate relative to bitcoin price so I don't know if this says like ether is super weak this cycle or if this says ether is super strong or if it says the bull market hasn't really started yet because we haven't seen the the non-bitcoin alt trade so-called yeah I think I think both of those are are interesting perspectives typically the ebtc ratio uh has been like the the

bull market indicator ratio as in like if eth goes up versus Bitcoin it's because we're in a bull market like ethereum has more things to do on it than Bitcoin does uh and so it's like a measure of exuberance it's a measure of euphoria it's a measure of people doing things on chain uh and that has been going down uh since FTX uh since the FTX crash uh and so uh like that's one perspective we can also open up however the salana eth ratio so I'm going to open up that on my screen and I'm going to zoom all the way out to let's do one day candles um let's do one day candles uh and that has actually been up and staying up uh and you know what's interesting Ryan this this vibe that The

salana Ether uh chart ratio looks like having gone up 700% uh since the middle of 2023 it kind of looks like how ether went up versus Bitcoin in 2020 to 2023 yeah I mean that's another doesn't that look like the same thing yeah there's another interpretation of this data set is like um Salon actually could you show the um uh the the salon a Bitcoin ratio like what does that look like sure that be kind of is that is that the new ratio chart I don't know I mean it feels like this cycle Sal has really taken some of the the steam the wind out of ethereum sales for sure but like this is not this is not the same as the um eth Bitcoin ratio

right it's kind of it's kind of similar so I'm trying to actually compare it to the eth Bitcoin ratio uh and so here's the eth Bitcoin ratio and here's the salana Bitcoin ratio the salana Bitcoin ratio looks like this part of the E Bitcoin ratio and I'm not and I'm actually not implying that therefore then salana goes down as eth has over the last two years I'm saying eth has gone down because it looks like that so what does this mean do you think about kind of the the broader uh cycle that we're in so again maybe I'll go back to 2020 and another reason this felt sort of like 2020 is like foure Cycles uh four years ago exactly we had sort of you remember 2019

we had some we had some hope and we're getting ready to do like we were getting ready at the end of 2019 we're on the Bull Run D5 was real we're very EXC def Bull Run we starting to see crypto assets appreciate you're talking about right here yeah oh my God that's that's very small when you look at it like this but it felt very large at the time and it was so we're just gaining gaining steam in crypto gearing up for another bull cycle and then covid punched Us in the face March 2020 knocked off a lot of like uh gains uh recently and sort of delayed the bull run it feels like four years later it's kind of what's happening or that's one interpretation basically now we're going to go on a a

six-month pause maybe a 9mon pause I'm not sure some sort of Hiatus with the bull market but then after that bull market will resume after kind of like macro events uh heal themselves SLE settle themselves yeah settle themselves I think I think this is a valid pattern of I don't know how much conviction I have in this onetoone comparison but I do remember this moment in the market very very well where ether hadn't been above like um $250 for very long time we all got really excited in this what we call like this uh ghost bubble Market in the middle of 2019 which was the plus token Ponzi scheme oh God yeah okay yeah so this Chinese Bitcoin Ponzi scheme ended up breaking in like billions and

billions of Bitcoin and created this like ghost bull market and we didn't really know about it after the fact that popped and so then ether went down like another 60% in the middle of 2018 to 2019 uh down to like $120 and what you're saying is like this period of like uh it was like December of 2019 to March of 2020 yep Unis swap was popping off yeah maker Dow was popping off a was popping off synthetics was popping off chain link was popping off a lot of these early things if I go look up the chain link chart that thing is just like up and to the right in the middle of this time of this time period and you're saying that we kind of all felt it like we're all getting really bullish like the fundamentals are really good users are up we're back

baby and then Co and we all it was all true we just had this like Co Hiatus and so we had this like what 100% increase in eth price Bitcoin does the same thing this 100% increase and then like later if you had just waited how many more months one more year you would be up oh God I can't even scroll that high you would be up 2,000% exactly right so like look go back go go back to those March 2020 candles for a second I I can't tell you how many people I know in crypto who got washed out who left who left right here they left it was just like Co it's over you know because remember we were

like in the depths of of Despair 2018 2019 it was like bare bare Market Vibes and suddenly some signs of life and then covid totally Shak things upside down right right and a lot of people got knocked a lot of people were on margin I almost got liquidated during this uh I did get liquidated yeah really I was smart and a lot of people just sold and just didn't get interested until crypto had like a you know or ethereum had like 100% or 1,000% plus rise and then they got reined and they wish they didn't sell it was a a huge wash out event dude it's it's hard man like we it like I said when ether when Bitcoin was at $66,000 and then it broke down to $3,000 ether was at like $240 200 and it broke

down to $80 in the end of 2018 and we stayed in that range for two years for 700 days yeah before we actually broke out of it and like we thought we were getting out of it a year later in that plus token Ponzi turns out it was just a Ponzi scheme that made that price go up and then we then prices started to go up again and then covid hit and we got wed by another negative 60% candle it was hard man I was numb by the end of this I was so numb but then once it was on it was so obviously on that it wasn't even funny like I remember just having like and once ether broke between uh broke upwards above 230 and it hit 465 for the first time in

like three years everyone in the industry knew exactly how bullish we were about to be uh and we were totally right and that's the thing I've been feeling is missing from this Market is like I've never had that level of conviction that like oh absolutely the bull market is back like I had when it came back in 2020 okay so but if it was going uh like if it was an to 2020 then that would still be in the future yeah today like you would feel like this is the the March 2020 covid type macro dump right and then your conviction would build that we're in the build Market over the next six months that's like if it if you know it worked out the same way if we're trying to draw comparisons we have an exogenous macro event that caused uh

liquidations it caused like prices to reset everything went down uh and as a result of that we are now going to get if this is going to be the similar thing we're now going to get much more favorable monetary policy covid was immaculate we can't repeat covid we literally got stimy checks mailed to us dropped in helicopter moneyed into our bank accounts like we can't really repeat that but we can get like just a softening macro policy and so as a result of this if we are carrying forward this analogy that this is bullish for crypto it's going to be because like there's going to be an easing of uh Global interest rates uh in monetary policy let's talk about that so so pow we'll get to like the FED pivot so po has already soft indicated I saw this last week uh the possibility of

a rate decrease in September and the question now is um will he accelerate that timeline and I I guess a few kind of like maybe points of evidence in that favor and then you you tell me the tweets but just like when I zoom out and look at it first of all we are 91 days from uh the US presidential election okay do you think the White House the powers that be um po Yellen Etc do you think they want a market crash 91 days out from the election because like doesn't this basically secure the election in Trump's favor right I mean I I have already seen a Twitter account brand this as the comma crash okay I don't know what she did that's what the

branding is going to be it's Biden White House shaky economy you let inflation now we've got a how could they have allowed this to happen I think I already saw a trump uh truth social tweet already blaming this on how this would never or saying this would never happen so the incentives on the powers that be is just uh Biden or kamalo whoever's operating the ship right now is calling pow and saying all right how can you fix this right so like that's the incentive fix it now before the election do something you have to do something so that could move out fed intervention dates and I don't know what the intervention might look like whether it's a interest rate decrease or something else more creative but like that moves it up and also there's always been this idea as we've been rationing

up rates over the past you know two three plus years that we've been ratcheting up rates that the FED will ratchet up rates until something breaks this is the clearest sign that something is broken since we had the false like almost almost something's breaking breaking uh breaking with Silicon Valley Bank do you remember that that was in uh was that in 2020 that was 2023 2023 that was like March of 2023 and it felt oh my God is this the thing is this going to break the FED interest rate policy and they're going to have to reverse course as a result of this well this is another feels like a Breaking of uh some fed policy somewhere that they're goingon to have to paper over and and go fix so this might accelerate things what do you

think yeah I don't know how so this is an exogenous factor to like the entire United States economy this is Japan like this is the Japan Central Bank and the J Japanese econom that's reverberated all the way back towards us what here's a take from Cyrus yessi who I appreciate when it comes to like these macroon com U these macro conditions he says an emergency fed cut would strengthen the Yen so if we devalue the dollar it would strengthen the Yen which is what is causing the unwinding of the basis trade in the first place a strong Yen Yen is what is liquidating the entire uh part of the economy that's doing this basis trade and so an actual fed cut would

actually create a worse condition as it results to as it is uh related to these people who are creating this like Leverage in the first place so like on one side we're like oh things are going like price is going down let's cut the interest rates but also as a result of this particular like context that's actually what would make it things worse so you can't just cut rates right I don't know I'm at the as am I and like I'm thinking that if it's not rates it's basically Sub sub that in for any Central Bank intervention of some type to quote unquote bail out this situation right I don't know what that look like Japanese Bank thing I think it's the balls in the air Court I think they'll be very

creative but like all of the uh Bank of Japan and the FED I mean these these entities work in lock step basically they're all talking to one another they're all like interdependent on one another it's just like it's not just a Japanese you know Bank of Japan problem it's definitely a Fed problem and Pal's going to I would imagine do something or be under pressure to do something I I can't imagine just on net I can't imagine making money harder to come by as a result of this than easier like just put it in a very like stupid simple terms some are already calling for this I guess was on Squawk Box CNBC Wharton's Professor Jeremy seagull calls for a 75%

emergency rate cut by the Fed so already investors are calling for an eer now i' I've seen the counter of this which is like come on S&P is still up 10% on the year like go cry about it investors like this is not that big of a drop right you know you can't start triggering like it it would be a bad idea to start intervening after just like a you know a run-of-the-mill market correction so there's that take out there as well so we'll bring in another Confluence of factors in addition to the ones that we all listed earlier like in addition to the conflict that the market is wear about in the Middle East uh we also just have like a looming recession uh and so one of the inputs into this very strong pullback in the traditional

equities markets is fears of recession inside of the United States uh and so um the jobs report inside of America has been bad uh which would bolster this idea of actually cutting uh Federal Reserve interest rates uh and so like that's also happening and so we have also have to look at our own like domestic numbers that's like kind why this this meme at the very start that I introduced where like no one actually really knows what's going on here is like there's like seven different relevant like inputs into the current state of things yeah I mean a few more we've got this in in kind of the last section here but locked Martin stock price is up 25% big defense contractor like why did that happen just bellweather of people like worried about World War III yeah War bellweather

basically Middle East bra braces for a week that could determine the course of the Gaza War so again that's still like going on also Buffett is dumping Buffett was like dumping the [ __ ] excuse me out of apple and Bank of America all last week and is now sitting on like 270 billion dollars of cash when I saw when I saw that last week I'm I'm like I wonder what he knows and then like literally the next day eth is down 20% like what the hell dude just follow buff it uh his trade so there's a lot going on right now okay so how does this change things uh I remember a recent bank episode uh I don't know probably within the last 30 to 60 days or so we're talking about the

bullish setup and indeed it felt like that wait were we bullish I'm guessing I'm guessing we were bullish yes and bullish ins to crypto right it's like it's hard to predict the macro so we just stay ins to crypto bullish but like bullish this is your Tweet about an insane bullish setup you mentioned the Trump election you mentioned uh Gary gendler possi like a lot of political things you mentioned the Fed rate cut cycle looming how is this now given the last week or so of events yeah so let's take these one by one because that's what we did when we first talked about this take uh Trump election locked in that was written uh right after the Biden step down and the um assassination attempt yeah right after the

assassination attempt Biden had just stepped stepped down and promoted like KLA Harris as the candidate and to me in my mind my interpretation was like oh well it's over like Trump uh election likelihood at all-time highs pre apparent like a wave of surge of support for Comm Harris which I did not expect uh and so you actually I can't really tell if we can really say the election is locked in for Trump um there's a bun of it's become it's become more much more narrow much it's like go look at the poly market right I don't know if you seen this lately but you know it was like 45 55 or something something like this yes yeah uh JD Vance is a extremely Pro uh crypto uh VP for Trump I mean still true but Trump also has to get elected for that to be relevant uh also

like people are saying like JD Vance is weird so maybe he's actually holding Trump back I don't know TBD uh Jamie Diamond bullish because of trump uh bullish Bitcoin uh I'm not sure how much substance that had that might have been just a rumor that I ended up regurgitating sorry um Gary gendler resignation that's 100% still happening uh that happens either way I'm pretty sure like like I'm them I'm gonna I don't know about that I don't know about that yeah I pretty even if even if the Dems get elected I still think they replace Gary Gensler the Elizabeth Warren uh choke hold on the Democratic party is not as strong as it was a few months ago but this is pre-election I'm I'm worried that the grip is loosening right now the Chokehold is loosening

right now because it's election season and you can't be too far left you can't be to Warren but then if kamla gets elected perhaps that grip resumes again we'll have to see here is speaking of Warren's Shenanigans uh she apparently just wrote a letter to the cftc uh I haven't actually read this full letter because it was happening while we were um going live uh but um trying to basically inhibit uh prediction markets and speciically specifically election prediction markets which is basically naming poly Market without actually naming poly Market uh I'll read this letter in a second uh but this is a Alex she hasn't stopped she hasn't stopped yeah she's so now now she's going after the cftc and for prediction markets uh

anyways so yeah still still unfriendly to crypto uh eth ETFs approved that happened um waiting for inflows uh they can't overcome an entire uh Japanese economy nuking um but we still have them uh speculation that Trump wants Bitcoin on the FED balance sheet that turned into real substance uh he doesn't want to buy Bitcoin he just wants to not sell the Bitcoin that we do have that we've confiscated but and I think like not creating sell pressure and creating buy pressure is actually the same thing so if we have2 billion of Bitcoin and we don't sell it that's equivalent to buying two billion of Bitcoin as far as I'm concerned uh and the FED Fed rate cycle cut is looming uh the cut cycle is looming uh still out there so some of

these things have definitely gone away uh but you know what has also gone away Ryan what's that 25% of crypto prices so you should therefore be 25% more bullish at these current prices right uh so insane bullish setup would you rephrase that would you like what how would you express this sentiment today because many of these things are still truish if you take a crypto in isolation it's just everything surrounding crypto has changed the macro environment has changed I mean could be looking at something significant that we just stumbled upon that gets worse from here um do you have any takes on the bullishness of crypto at this point in

time I think we're getting a a lot of clarity this week as to what exactly is going on uh and how much is related to Japan how much is related to other reasons um I think if you bought yesterday congrats especially if you felt sick to your stomach and you bought anyways that's like awesome and I'm that's just like a very cool skill to have not many people can do that it might be bold to buy but that is what it call that's how you make great trades um I think it's a great time I guess uh my take on this is this this kind of shows the value of of positioning like all the work that you've done today and it's like I remember we were just talking about Cycles where you and I were both positioned uh much worse than we are today right because off sides yeah

exactly did not understand offsides and I think there's like basically three states of your portfolio positioning like one is poorly positioned these tend to be like first cyclers uh second cyclers and you know you are poorly positioned if you have trades on margin so if if you're doing the margin trading thing on a highly volatile asset like crypto and you're feeling that pain now that's how you know if you have other things in your life expenses like credit card debt and you're looking at your crypto portfolio and being like I can't pay my credit card bills you are poorly positioned if your spouse or partner has not bought in on your risk tolerance level with your portfolio how many times has that story played out if you have no emergency cash reserve and you looking at that you know your net worth go down

and you're like this is not good I can't pay my rent I can't pay my bills you definitely position poorly positioned right well positioned is you have no margin trades you know like your your your your bad debt is paid off so you don't have you credit card debt you got maybe mortgage something like this uh you're fine if your crypto portfolio just trades like 80% down even 95% down you're allocated to crypto assets that will revive when the the the macro Market improves and you are God positioned this is the last year if you actually have that dry powder if you have like 20% powder wow yeah and you can buy you you're God positioned and like the general advice is if you're poorly positioned that's how you learn

that's how it starts your objective is just to survive and continue in the space and like try to tr try to meet those uh Margin Call obligations if you are well positioned great time to hold just hold I think ignore the noise don't trade on emotion right now things are being priced in at the moment what can you do you don't know anything just hold and if you're God positioned obviously this is the start of if you're God positioned you already know exactly what you're doing yeah and it just strikes me as like all of that positioning is work that you did as an investor over the last two years yeah and it just like this is the moment where you can kind of like realize the benefits of some of that long-term planning I for me I'm

somewhere between well positioned I'm not quite God positioned I would love to have like 20% of are you making any moves uh I haven't yet um but you know this is kind of the start of of possibly making some moves right with dry powder I wish I had closer to like 20 to I I mean I wish I had 90% dry powder but that would make me a Trader right yeah uh 20 10 to 20% was kind of my aim uh I was trying to sell on the way up in order to get there in dry powder I didn't quite get it so I have some dry powder but not as much as I'd like to start doing the buy strategy here that's generally always my position it's like I have a like a trickle of dry

powder and it's never as much as I want to actually make meaningful moves yes because I'm generally always fully allocated to you're more in than out right I'm always more in than out and there there's no way that I'm selling like $3,500 ether just to protect myself in in the event of like a downside exactly because I'm trying to sell like like $15,000 ether to protect myself from the event of a downside like I'm not and we're not there yet exactly not there yet so that that's how things break down we'll have to see how things emerge of course we have a rollup David you got a meme to uh end with so what are we looking at here this is Kevin aak this is uh two guys saying the same thing but one's looking at the window facing a rock and the other one's

looking at out the window like looking at a fantastic View and they are both saying the market is down 30% time to reset and rebuild we're back in the build it's only for here it can only go up back in the build Market all right guys well we will end with this of course this uh disclaimer is more meaningful you know crypto is risky you could lose what you put in but we are headed west this is the frontier not for everyone but we're glad you're with us us on the bank list Journey thanks a lot new projects are coming online to the mantle layer 2 every single week why is this happening maybe it's because mantle has been on the frontier of layer 2 design architecture since it first started building mantle da powered by technology from Igan da maybe it's because users are coming onto the mantle layer 2 to

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