Cycle analysis, rate cuts and exit strategies in a Milk Road PRO AMA

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show where we keep you in the loop like your family group chat keeps you in the loop on Aunt Margaret I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we've got a special episode for you guys now last week milro Pro members got an exclusive AMA and it was so full of alpha that I convinced Kyle and Martin the heads of milro pro to release it for free to you as today's episode this episode will give you an edge on making life-changing money from your crypto Investments cuz now is the time the opportunity is now and I don't want you guys to miss out on it you're about to hear our brilliant heads of research at milro Pro Kyle and Martin answer

important questions from crypto investors like you questions like what are their opinions on the future of eth and ethereum as a whole is it still a good investment a lot of fud on eth you're going to hear them talk about that what are their thoughts on Cross chain projects like zro and L and AI projects like fet are those viable picks for this bull run how did they time their Market exit in 2021 for altcoins this is so so important planning for your Market exit when are you going to take profits what is your stoploss is so so important and what decisions made their portfolio explode they're going to talk about which is the bigger Catalyst rate Cuts or the US election and they're

going to talk about is DCA dollar cost average still a good strategy in this this market now trust me the insights that they share here are pure gold and we couldn't keep them I couldn't I couldn't I had to make sure you guys got them what's important to remember is you could have gotten this Alpha a week ago if you're serious about making money in this cycle then you know how fast prices move and how big a difference a week makes so after listening to today's episode and you get the inside scoop on what Pro members get access to I think you guys might want to go pro yourself because then you can attend the next AMA live you can ask your own questions and you can ask questions every day in Discord and you get so much more if you go pro so check out the link in the show

notes now this episode is raw it's unfiltered it's recording straight from the milroad Discord and it's got tons of members over 50 Pro members chiming in live so you might hear some side comos uh and Kyle and Martin battling out with the chat it's all part of the fun and if you're like us and you want to gain more yield on your e in a safe and secure way then you're going to want to check out our sponsor kelp let's hear from them get ready because your reward farming game is about to level up introducing gain powered by kelp your dgen concierge gain is an automated Vault launched by

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yourself today just head over to milkroom help gain and get started all right welcome back to another milroad Pro AMA we are here to answer all the questions of our milk Road Pro members we've got I don't know probably 20 30 questions at least to answer uh covering a bunch of different topics uh everything from macroeconomic factors and Market sentiment to different investment strateg some stuff around portfolio which assets should you hold which ones shouldn't you some questions around Exit strategies which is quite interesting I don't think we're quite at the at the part where we want to do that yet but always good to be planning and then just analysis around different sectors different Trends and different um projects in in crypto so a lot to discuss today before we get into

the questions Martin and I will just have a quick maybe five minutes or so explaining where we think we're at in the cycle and where the markets are at it's been about a month since we've updated you on this so yeah should be good I think um we'll get right into it here so to get things started I think the big thing that matters right now is global liquidity and so we show this chart every week to our Pro members so you guys have seen this every Tuesday already but Global liquidity is on the rise a lot of it is coming out of China at the moment which is great doesn't matter where liquidity comes from as long as there's liquidity then assets tend to do well so we're seeing it in China and I think we'll we'll soon see it in the US as well but obviously a

little bit of a lag there but that's okay so Global Equity still is the main driver of everything so people are asking like is the banana Zone going to come does the ban banana Zone come if Kamala Harris wins the election instead of trump and I think yes it happens either way because I think it's all driven by the business cycle and liquidity and um we're seeing other assets reacting to this so this is a chart of gold versus global liquidity gold is just skyrocketing to all-time highs uh recently and we think that this is a reflection of liquidity uh even the NASDAQ tech stocks doing the same thing I think Martin's going to touch on this second but they are they had a pullback recently but they're already back up to their highs or close to and uh crypto continues to lag but I think we'll we

soon catch up uh the big indicator that I'm watching now is the Dixie and so that's basically just the dollar versus a bunch of other Fiat currencies every time the Dixie goes into let's call it a bar Market uh when it takes a nose dive down for six months to a year crypto absolutely skyrockets one goes the other way and the Dixie does well crypto does very bad it's called dollar Wrecking Ball and uh all assets typically do bad when when the Dixie goes up and it looks like we're at a stage where the Dixie is about to Trend down to probably close to 90 uh if that happens I think that's full banana Zone and that's kind of the main thing I'm watching right now and I see no reason why it won't happen especially considering the FED has basically said last week that they are

moving into a new regime they're going to be cutting rates and uh and so I think everything that's going on right now in this summer is a lot of noise there's not a lot of liquidity out there and so we're so volatile I mean just was it yesterday when collapsed out of nowhere and there was no news but all of a sudden eth was down 8% and bitcoin's down six and you're like what happened and you actually can't find any news uh it's literally just illiquid markets when everyone's kind of off in the Hamptons right now taking time off for the summer and um September should look a little bit better but who knows that's when everyone's kind of coming back deciding where they want to invest their Capital uh but typically October and on should do very very well and we'll see what happens with the dollar I think

September we'll start to see this go down much more because we'll see rates go down at some point in uh in September so everything looks good it's just we're in this very weird phase that honestly we've been in a bunch of times if you guys remember last summer the same thing happened we had these summer lulls and it was very boring and then all a sudden October hit and we just took off the same thing happened in 2020 when the Bull Run started it was like these summer laws even Michael sailor came in said he's buying all his Bitcoin we pumped for a second and then we just sort of ranged and then we just dumped back down and then like when I think it was October maybe it was September at this point hit all of a sudden we just took off and the bull market just went

nuts so tends to happen this way a lot and the longer that it gets this boring Zone the harder it is but we just got to stay patient and um just look at the bigger picture here so that's really all I'm looking at in terms of markets Martin not sure if there's anything you want to add I know you have this chart here to share as well but feel free to jump in here yeah I like to looking at this chart which basically shows how crypto which is the orange line here I believe how it performs against stocks and we can see different in the US indexes it's S&P 500 it's like everyone knows S&P 500 five it's 500 biggest US companies um in this index so it's represented by the blue color here yeah

here and you can see that it's doing all-time high and the same thing is for the the NASDAQ which is purple and the the interesting thing here is that the Russell which is the the index down below RT Y is still not doing all-time highs and the thing why I think this chart is interesting that what this chart tells us is basically the investors are still not willing to buy more risk risk uh on assets you know so they still prefer SNP or 500 but this uh this index Russell it represents to 2,000 us companies so

obviously you know much much lower much smaller companies than those that are included in S&P and this tells me like okay the investors are still not willing to accept more risks and they are still not buying like more riskier stocks then why should they buy crypto so we are still not there and I expect that we first need Bitcoin and Russell to hit all-time highs and then maybe we will see uh more flows into other cryptocurrencies basically you can actually kind of see the similar thing here where you see the delay in the huge pump here in the Russell back in 2020 it was like the later end of 2020 after the NASDAQ already had its big move which

was to here and uh and crypto did the same kind of a delay and then its Big Move came at the end of the year after the NASDAQ already did its big move and same thing with Russell crypto and and the Russell are very risk on and we're just not on risk on yet we'll get there but we're we're not there yet we probably got to get past the election I would say or even before that we got to get obviously rates down and kind of this everyone to believe that hey we're not going to go into this big recession the world's not ending and we're going into this new regime of money Printing and and rates down and once that happens people transition and the NASDAQ will still go up but not as much as it did like nasdaq's move is early here whereas

the Russell's move is late crypto's move is late so I think we're basically looking at the exact same thing nasdaq's already having its Big Move and the Russell crypto are kind of late I I don't see it any other way there any other charts here that's all we got anything else you want to add Martin or you think we should jump into the questions yeah let's get into the questions all right let's do it okay so question here from Low Killer d11 in my point of view we are witnessing a soft Landing but I'm still skeptical about it we have been listening about a crash on commercial real estate for a long time but it didn't materialize yet if it ever will do you think it might still happen dragging the smaller Regional banks with it or can we really have a soft Landing So Soft Landing for those that don't

know is basically the idea of not having a recession and inflation coming down not having a recession and getting rates lower uh all the things that fed po has been saying that everyone's been chirping him for and the man is somehow probably going to do it uh I know there's still a lot of people saying we're going to go into this bad recession and all this I I really don't see it I don't think we will so yeah I think we are going to have a soft Landing there is definitely still commercial real estate that is a big issue there's a lot of companies that have a lot of money in commercial real estate State and they're not able to sell it or rent it out because just no one really has big Offices Downtown anymore or a lot less do and so that's going to be a problem but I think that

that'll just go on the fed's balance sheet and we'll find a way to kind of save the banks or save commercial real estate and the FED will buy that up so I'm not too concerned again they can't let 2008 happen again just doesn't work uh the reason for that is there's too many people that are retired right now that have pensions and rely on that to live and if we let the markets crash like 2008 then the whole Pension Plan system breaks which means the whole economy breaks and there's just no way they're ever going to let that happen so I just think if anything happens to commercial real estate maybe they find New Uses with it and if they don't and it collapses they'll find a way to just put that into the balance sheet and they'll basically just print their way out of it so it actually is not a

concern to me at all so that's it and I think we're going to have soft Landing which um kind of wild to think but I think they will I know that you're not an oracle but in the hypothetical event of a recession what do you think will happen to the crypto market prices in short medium and long term um if we had a recession which I don't think we will then shortterm on the recession news we crash NASDAQ maybe goes down 20% and and crypto goes down probably a lot more 30 40% maybe more depending on on how big the the recession quote unquote is and then I think from there the way to solve a recession is to print money and so I think Bitcoin and crypto bounce back as do tech stocks and everything else just like every other recession we've ever had in history it ends up being fine so

uh I don't really worry too much um but again I just I don't think we'll have a recession I don't think we can really have a recession so I'm not too too concerned here if we did yeah we would crash down but I think when we thought we were having a recession NASDAQ was already down 20% and so if they in fact did say recession like maybe we go down a couple more percent like there wasn't much more room to go down we had already kind of priced it in same with crypto we went down so much and so like yeah we might go down 40 but we're probably already down 30 at this point so does it is it that big of a deal like generally it's not that bad so I don't tend to worry too too much about this stuff if you're invested over the long term

Martin this one's for you I'll let you uh do you want to read it out or do you want me to read it out for you you can read it with all the guests in the show I think they're talking about milk Road uh the milk Road Show here saying well I'm not so sure about altcoin season and stocks outperform crypto anyways the last six months why do you think there are so much less bullish on altcoins than you are if investing in the big seven and even gold is easier and safer and more profitable than trading crypto then why would the greater audience enter the altcoin arena there are no safe investment vehicles other than Bitcoin and eth yet and even that does not seem good enough although inflows are increasing that'ss here round Alin C Martin yeah well I would say using last

6 months as a benchmark here is probably not enough so if you look much longer to the history Bitcoin is actually outperforming everything else on the planet so I think this will be huge kind of pitch for all funds and institutions coming into crypto and that's how actually big money are making moves like if there is an asset class which is outperforming you know SNP and all other investment vehicles they available out there they need to pay attention to it and they will want to have exposure unless because if not they are risking like a lot imagine you are

fund manager or like money manager and you are still without exposure to crypto but yes crypto is still risky it's still quite early but it's much more risky today to not have any exposure into crypto at all so I think uh this will drive huge inflows not just it in Bitcoin but also in other you know ethereum Solana and maybe other great prodct projects because it just uh it's way too risky to not to do not have exposure and U what about the other question well I was just going to add to it and just say we're not as we've said

we're not in the risk on environment yet and so altcoins aren't meant to outperform yet so yes the least risky stuff is outperforming just like Bitcoin is outperforming the rest of crypto you know the mag 7 is outperforming the Russell we just showed that but there are different times in a cycle where different different asset class cles or different assets outperform and we're currently in the one where the make seven is supposed to outperform and Bitcoin is supposed to outperform and we'll get to a point where we go more risk on and then those won't outperform or they shouldn't and if they if they do okay then everyone got it wrong but just based on the on the cyclicality of things we're about to go risk on and that's when all these other things should outperform and I think the other reason why you would yes it's easier and

safer to just hold gold or or the big seven stocks but the returns you get in crypto when we get to risk on are unlike anything you see in other assets like I mean ethereum went up in 2020 2021 like I don't know was it like a 10 15 20x over that those two years like I think it went down as low as 150 and it ended at 5,000 by the end of the year or the end of the the cycle you don't get anything even remotely close to that in make seven or gold or anything and so as Martin said at some point these funds are going to have to put some exposure they're not going to go all in on it like probably many of us are here in this uh in this group chat right now but they'll some percent because even if

they put 1% or 2% if it goes up at 20x they're going to outperform every asset they hold even if they have 40% of their Assets in it you know so it's just the math makes sense that they're going to come in here uh when when the timing is right just let's jump over the next one for you Martin you got more go for it yeah it's always about risk reward so if you buy SNP or NASDAQ you know they they're different volatility but obviously the upside is also limited even though like n weia this last few years is pretty crazy but besides that you know it's it's pretty normal and there are like average returns you can expect so is it something that's sexy and that's you want to invest in like

maybe but you know it's I would say it's quite boring but sometimes it needs it investing should be boring but for us who get you know who are more passionate about the tech and the we see crypto as a generational opportunity that's something we we want to hold and why we believe that all the blockchains and everything's going on here in this space is going to kind of disrupt whatever all the things we do today so this different risk reward I would say and look you got another the next question here is is kind of right in line with what we're talking about so the crypto Market's overall capitalization fell in Q2 2024 underperforming compared to traditional

assets like the S&P 500 do you see this as a temporary setback or could it indicate a more significant shift an investor sentiment as from White Rose thanks for asking the question and I think it goes right along with what we're saying we think crypto is going to outperform the S&P 500 without a doubt in the long term and and actually to be honest in the medium term as well and so no this doesn't change a thing for me in terms of uh my sentiment I think people tend to follow and let prices guide their emotions toward an asset I mean even just right now everyone hates on eth at the moment because its price is underperformed and so everyone's like eth is [ __ ] and eth is the worst asset in the world and blah blah blah and it's like no it's not nothing's changed it's

still a dominant player in the space it still has the most developers the most users across the ecosystem has everything nothing's changed from last year if anything it's much better than it was last year and definitely much better than when it was priced at 5,000 the only thing that's changed its price and so all of a sudden people think and doubt it Solana has done really well recently in its price so everyone loves it again same with Bitcoin right Nvidia and the S&P 500 is doing better than crypto so all of a sudden everyone's like wait a minute should I be in the S&P 500 and it's like everyone just wants to chase gains and it's not what you want to do you want to look at what Martin said the fundamentals what's the future going to hold and like unless you think no one's going to go on chain then

probably you're better off investing in S&P 500 but if you think people are going to move on chain in the future we're going to go more and more on chain then like this underperforming over the last quarter it's just an opportunity more than anything and I don't see it as anything different than that Martin this one's for you hi team looking at the last few months has anything changed in your analysis of the cycle in terms of cycle duration narratives which have had wins versus Tailwinds good question thank you Suga M27 this Saturday we are releasing report about uh five of our defi positions where we'll provide updates and what happened there if our teas is still hold and if we are still bullish or if we are selling some of our positions so keep that in mind that you will get updates about some of our

positions but like more in general I must say that I'm quite surprised how crypto is still underperform everything else but it feels like if someone thinking about Donald Trump talking about Bitcoin Larry thing from Black Rock talking about tokenization and Visa PayPal all launching on uh blockchains it just feels so bullish for the whole industry but it's just not seen in price yet so I think the whole crypto is still kind of under the radar of the majority of people people and Market participants but I feel like once the market starts

to um go up and we will see some green candles then it it brings more attention more people more investors and it's going to be quite crazy after that because the price is the best Catalyst ever so you know all the fundamentals and everything what's happening is just saying like Okay blockchains are here to stay and what's being built is awesome teag and it's probably going to as I said disrupt a lot of Industries so just the price doesn't reflect all the fundamentals and all the great things that are happening on the blockchain so that's still kind of surprising to me

like you want to add something yeah I was just going to say you got to remember that when crypto moves it moves really really fast and so like we had a crazy movement in crypto and Q4 of 2023 and a little bit in in q1 of of 2024 and it's based on nothing since and at that time everyone was so bullish they thought super cycle or accelerated cycle right and and now all of a sudden prices have kind of died down and to me it's like this is exactly what we've said the entire time the cycle takes multiple years for the cycle to play out and in that time there's a few weeks where prices go absolutely nuts to the upside and then most of those few years it's actually just sideways or down or chop

and we're in that right now and everyone's kind of losing their minds and I think the cycle is actually playing out exactly how every other cycle has pretty close to yes we hit alltime highs a little bit before the having BL like who cares it's a little bit different than it was but like ultimately it's all the same we pull ourselves out of the bare Market we do really really well then we chop along for a long time and and we have these very long pullbacks like we've always done in every cycle previous and then we finish off strong at the end when we go risk on and uh in that last six months eight months but in between all that craziness it's a lot of boring chop it happened in 2020 2019 like this happens every time and so I don't know why people get so lost just look at past

Cycles it's lining up perfectly so I still think probably sometime mid to end 2025 we top out and we go into a bare Market why nothing to do with crypto everything to do with the cycles of the business cycle liquidity and rates in the dollar uh and so I I see no reason why anything is going to be different here now narratives they ask headwinds and Tailwinds yes those change all the time just depending on I don't know what catches a bid like obviously had the AI narrative for a bit there because Nvidia was pumping now that it's pulled back the crypto AI narrative is kind of slowed down um but I think everything is kind of doing exactly what it was meant to do it's just hard when it's these chop boring times everyone just gets so impatient and and bored I guess and just

like wants it to to go up which I get we all have so much of our money in in this space so we we want to see it do well but just look at past Cycles there wasn't that many days where number will go up it's like number goes up it goes up 20% in like two days and then it just doesn't do anything for a while and then it goes up 20% or 50% or 100% in a couple days it doesn't do anything for a long time and so the key is learning to just like manage these times where things don't do well right they just kind of chill and you need to learn to chill as well but otherwise to me cycle looks the same uh if anything cycle looks like it could be this long super cycle more than anything because crypto just continues

as Martin said gets more and more bullish every day right we've got all the biggest companies starting to move on chain and I just don't know how you could be bearish in in in a background like that but ultimately for price I think it's the business cycle that matters one last comment here what has changed in the last few months me and Kyle we always tend to buy and hold fundamentally strong assets which is always a question like will people really care about the fundamentals or is it going to be all driven just by hype and narratives and you know marketing and YouTubers and those kind of stuff in the last few months I'm seeing more signs that more

people and more funds are looking into the liquid markets and what's available there because there are really great projects I'm talking about maker a Lio those kind of stuff because they are just businesses working generating ton of money and they are still super undervalued compared to the valuations uh from traditional Finance like SNP so these are the things that makes me more bullish on those projects with strong cash flows strong teams good brands cind the effects so yeah more bullish here agreed although there will definitely be

hype Cycles especially as we go risk on a bunch of things without fundamentals will also do really well that's just the way crypto and markets in general work yeah but like okay there is 14,000 tokens so it's really hard to find the ones that are going to perform exceptionally well so you know if you invest in fundamentally strong ones you have like some ground bases for for you like to reason yes otherwise if you buy not try to chase it yeah and then that shitcoin is going down like you you'll be always asking yourself should I sell now or is it going to up tomorrow like it's super hard so it's a stressful life

yeah it's a very stressful way to invest all right we'll move on the next one this is Su M27 again many macro analysts are predicting rate cuts to continue late into 20125 and possibly into early 2026 does that mean liquidity to continue until that period we would Poss POS get a cycle top in late 2025 early 2026 so the one thing to remember here is there will be a point at which so we will start to accelerate rate Cuts right like the First Rate cut that comes in September in the US that means we are accelerating in the form of rate Cuts maybe it's 25 and then in October November December we go 50 basis points and then we go maybe 50 again or 75 or whatever right and maybe they get closer together and each month we're like 25

like I don't know at some point as we get near the tail end of it at the bottom we'll maybe cut 25 and then we'll take like six months and then we might cut 25 again then we'll take like six months or a couple months or we just do nothing so we're still in a rate cutting cycle technically but we're decelerating at the rate that we are cutting which means that we're starting to turn over in terms of quantitative easing or Global liquidity so you don't want to wait until all of a sudden we start to raise rates you want to get out before any of that happens as we start to decelerate the rate cut cycle that's when you want to start to be taking profits and pulling out so like we will continue to print money and lower rates probably into 2026 and even beyond that

but the amount that we will be printing will start to decelerate at some point probably next year at some point maybe it's 2026 I don't know that's when you want to be out you don't want to be out until or you don't want to be in it until the last time that we print and we start to go the opposite way it's before that right so it's all about the rate of change not the absolute number okay so we are currently accelerating the amount of liquidity coming to the system at some point we will start to decelerate the amount of liquidity going to system but in the actual numbers there's still more net liquidity coming in the system you want to get out as we start to decelerate not as we start to lower the liquidity in the system if that makes sense it's all about rate of change it's

a hard thing for people to understand but that's how you invest into the future so when that happens I have no idea we'll have to keep checking and seeing what the FED does but that's the key is looking at rate of change not the actual net number is the September Jay Hamilton look at this Jay Hamilton's getting on the questions I love that is the September rate cut priced in which is the bigger Catalyst rate Cuts or the US election crypto will go up more than 100x in both users and value over the next decade if you're listening to this right now you're extremely early and have an incredible opportunity to capitalize at milk Road our mission is to make you smarter about crypto that's why we're doing today's podcast and why we send you a daily newsletter for free but if you're ready to level up as an investor

then let me tell you about milk Road Pro we crafted this resource for investors who are already smart enough about crypto and are looking for more actionable insights on how to invest successfully in one of the fastest growing Industries on Earth every week we break down the latest trends dive into tokenomics of popular and upand cominging tokens and get into the nitty-gritty of market analysis all to help you invest smarter plus we have a private Discord Community for pro members it's like your backstage pass to the milk road crew exclusive insights Hot Tips and live amas with our team now if you're looking to level up as an invest investor that click the link in the show notes below and sign up to Pro today don't let this bull market opportunity slip through your fingers uh it's a really good question probably it's priced in but I don't know

that the whole rate cut cycle is priced in yet uh and so like is a 25 basis point cut priced in like maybe I don't know it's so hard to say but I don't think the idea of like what happens when a rate cut cycle starts and like what happens over the next year that's definitely not priced for sure and then what's the bigger Catalyst probably if Trump wins the election in terms of that day when the news breaks I would say if Trump wins versus when we decide to finally cut 25 base points even though we all know it's coming I would say if Trump wins we're g to have just a god candle on that day and Market's just absolutely rip for the next 24 48 Hours whereas like when we finally cut rates on September whatever the date is I don't know probably markets react well

but I don't think it's going to be that big because I think everyone's already expecting it so I don't know that's my thoughts on that here's a great question Martin I think we can both answer this one I thought this one was really nice how do you make money in a bare market so let's say you exit close to the top 12 months from now approximately an indicators point to a bare market for the next six to 12 months in this scenario what do you do you might want to keep some of the majors and maybe earn yield but what are the strategies to capitalize on the downward Trend with or without leverage so I love this question and there's a few ways to think about this like one the easy thing is well generally in bare markets there's yield and so you might want to hold

stable coins grab some yield which ones at at that point I don't know maybe it's Athena maybe it's maker maybe it's something else we don't know yet that doesn't exist yet but like probably pretty easy when you're going to Bare Market to grab five to 10% yield rate generally in a bare Market means rates are higher and so you have like real yield from treasuries we obviously have real yield from proof of stake blockchains so like there's there's definitely a chance to get yields and I would say that's probably where most of your Capital wants to be uh in a bare Market the other thing is like in investing as long as you're investing long term you're not always trying to make money there are times in the Market where you are really trying to make money and there are times in the market where you're just trying to conserve and

like save money and so if we go into a bare Market the strategy shouldn't be start to try to short the market that's the last thing you want to do in crypto uh and you shouldn't be trying to take leverage to do all that stuff like in my opinion unless you're a pro which even that case no one's a pro at shorting crypto it's insane because even in bare markets you have a 100% you have a day where assets just go up like 50% for no reason uh and so you get wrecked so for me it's like when I'm in a bare Market I'm not trying to make money I'm just trying to hold on to my Capital I'm trying to earn my 5% 6% yield whatever I can get and I'm actually just spending all my time doing two things one trying to make more Revenue trying to figure

out how can I get more income so I can save more and allocate more Capital during this bare Market when I think we've bottomed out and two I'm researching trying to figure out what are the best investments like if you invested back in 2020 everyone right now is tripping out about prices but if you invested in 2020 you got eth at 800 bucks at 2022 sorry you got eth at 800 bucks 900 bucks $1,000 so you're up massively right now even though it feels really bad you bought Bitcoin at 16,000 20,000 if you were investing in 2022 so these pullbacks we're in right now it doesn't matter you're already up a 3X in like a year and a half that's insane no one has that right and so the best thing you if you're trying to allocate now like if you invested when we started our

milk Road Pro portfolio in May okay you're worried we're down I don't know 12% % or 13% like that sucks I get it right but that time in the bare Market when you're trying to make money by shorting the market don't even worry about it just research and find the right assets what are the assets that are going to make it through this bare market and start buying them when we're in the bare Market you're not going to make money that year but whenever markets turn you're going to make a [ __ ] ton of money really fast right if you bought salana in 2022 or even you had the chance to do it early 2023 at $8 we put into our Pro uh at the time to buy under 20 bucks and we're currently sitting at50 right now do you think that this this pullback matters to anyone who

bought it at 12 bucks absolutely not so in 2020 we weren't expecting to make money but we were expecting to buy things that were discounted that were cheap and then we'll make our money in 2023 in 2024 and in 2025 so if the bare Market comes in 2026 I'm not trying to make any money I'm just trying to figure out where can I allocate my Capital to make money over the next three years Martin not sure if there's anything else you want to add there no you the market never never uh yeah never short crypto exactly yeah like now we are playing offense and quite like in 12 months we are going to play defense that's that's straightforward okay here's a good question about stable coins this is from

whiz or wise D star 007 for your non- major assets you're betting on protocols that are related to stable coins such as maker a and Athena you said that in bull runs it is best to hold coins and tokens instead of stable coins so why would such protocols explode in price when major coins are more popular uh I'll just finish off some of this here also in the peak of the bull market don't you think that narrative The Narrative to get rich plays more vital role compared to fundamentals especially retail that came late they want to get the slice of the pie and beted on risky assets with potential to get rich since major coins too expensive at that time so Martin why don't you answer the first one here of just like why would stable coins do good in a in a bull market if we think that

everyone should be 100% allocated to things that are not stable coins it's good question oh I don't get it oh hold on so basically our advises don't hold stable coins right now it's be 100% allocated and yet we're saying that stable coins are going to do really well during a bull market why if we're advising no one holds stable Co right now I see yeah yeah like it's another great chart we could actually share but we didn't and it's stable coin total Supply because because if we expect that crypto is going up we need more stable coins and because it will basically means that more people are flowing money into crypto and that's what we want to

see not just retail retail users but also funds you know family offices and those kind of big players so some I know that some analysts and some people use stable coin stable coin total market supply as a leading indicator for where we are at the cycle and when we will finally see some prices going out but the point is the more stable coins on the blockchain it's uh I'm lost here uh let me help out here I think so just because we are 100% allocated many others are not there are many funds that have millions of dollars that they're

investing right a lot of our audience is investing thousands 10 thousands okay and they hold their other money in Fiat but there are many funds that hold millions of dollars billions of dollars in assets and maybe they're putting 60% of their assets to work and another you know 40% are in stable coins right and as that 60% goes up because salana triples in a month they're taking profits all the time those profits are going back into stable coins and also there's you got to remember the way that the ecosystem works of crypto on dexes for example if eth goes up by I don't know 2x you most of the time it's eth traded with a pair that's a stable coin so it's eth and USD or usdc so the more valuable that eth and all these assets

get the more stable coins you need to balance out those pairs on dexes so for defi to work if assets go up in price you need more stable coins to make the ecosystem still work so and there's and what that means is if assets go up in price and stable coins don't go up in in in um in their supply then there's a lot of yield that you can get and so people are going to eat up that yield Arbitrage and eventually that means that stable coins are going to go up to get that yield and eventually balances out it always reaches kind of an equilibrium so so long as asset prices go up stable coin Supply will also go up this is why you see stable coin Supply go up so much in Bull markets generally it actually can go down in bare markets again

because the asset price has gone down so there's that equilibrium always so um just because we are fully allocated doesn't mean everyone is fully allocated and there's lots of plays to make money on stable coins in Bull markets right you don't always have to try to get your 100x or your 10x in assets you can get it in stable coins as well and there are many funds that have no problem doing that so and then I guess the other part of it is forget prices stable coins are just getting adoption as payments there are many people in this world that don't invest anything but are using stable coins because that's just the only way that they can send money to their loved ones to another country or get paid by a company and that is getting more and more adoption every single day and so

even if we forget about bull markets and bare markets stable coin adoption is happening at a very fast rate and that's going to continue regardless so there's lots of catalysts that are making the stable coin market cap go up and so so it's why usdt usdc py USD is all growing and same with things like maker and Athena are all growing as well and we think that Trend continues to be honest probably in bull market and bare Market um we'll see but I just think it's reached escape velocity at this point and I see no reason why that just doesn't go up and up for the next I don't know 10 years at least but we'll see what happens there yeah I I got it uh s you got more just yeah it's about use case also as you said like now PayPal on Solana is doing all-time highs

pretty much every day and it's not because people want to buy USD from PayPal and then go directly to buy some defy tokens or whatever they they might be just doing some transactions just some payments or whatever or even like if those people want to buy they still need first to buy stable coins and if there is more demand for stable coins then there is arbitrage but they those stable coins already exist even though those people will also end up fully allocated and having I don't know 100% of their money in ethereum they had to buy stable coins or something to get into the market so um yeah different use

cases but yeah okay next one here from Low Killer d11 I know that milroad portfolio doesn't hold any Bitcoin because you are looking for the best returns you can have in this bull market on the other hand I I hold around 40% of my portfolio in Bitcoin and I don't intend to sell it on any occasion however in the back of my mind I'm thinking of selling part of my Bitcoin near the market top if I can and then buying it at lower prices when the bull market is over do you think this is a good strategy hey it's a great strategy if you can do it but trying to time the tops and bottoms of bull markets are bull markets and bare markets is very very difficult uh and so good luck I'd say I would say this I think the best strategy is just think

about why are you selling the Bitcoin do you need that Bitcoin or do you need that money that value to buy something like a down payment on a home or a car or I don't know pay off a loan or something like if you need that then just sell it somewhere near the top you know just as it's going up once you have enough sell it for sure and pay off that loan don't try to just ride this thing to Valhalla because like you're GNA have volatility uh so like pay off your loans buy your house that you need to like do whatever it is that you need to do and use that now should you sell a bunch of it and try to time the the market like if you're good and if you know what you're doing and you're paying attention maybe you do it with a certain percent

would I do all of it absolutely not and I won't even do that myself even though I feel pretty confident that I can somewhat get near the top and somewhat get near the bottom I don't think I can time it to the top and I don't think I can time it at the bottom but I'm pretty sure I can time it somewhere where it's overvalued and probably buy it somewhere where it's undervalued but it would be it would be very difficult and so I would say it's up to you on your risk tolerance like there's a chance that you mess that up a lot of professionals have even messed that up uh and so for me I usually take profits when I need it for something else right like as crypto goes up I want to have a safety net of assets that I hold that are in stable coins

that just generate yield all the time bull or bare Market just there for a rainy day fund and so like I'm going to take profits just because I want that it makes my life feel more secure I'm going to buy a car with some of my profits the cycle um now am I going to sell that at the very Peak top to buy that car 100% I'm not but I'm going to sell it when I feel like I've got enough and I can buy that car right so it just kind of depends on your lifestyle and what you need the money for more than anything but just remember it's bricking difficult to time the tops and time the bottoms of of Cycles very very difficult Kyle uh this one's directed I guess right at me by Martin 8292 uh how did you time the market exit

in 2021 for the altcoins were you successful and which parameters did you use what made your portfolio explode the Bull Run of known coins were a very early buy and on unknown cone that unknowing un known coin that we now know very well uh great question I did not time the market exit in 2021 well at all uh this is why I say it's very very very freaking difficult to time it I did a terrible job I think a lot of people did a bad job last cycle I was also my first cycle so I didn't know uh enough about it I feel more confident this time but I think more than anything when you're in the know you you know that you actually just you'll never be able to do it at the time I thought I would be able to do it now I'm smarter in the sense that I

know I can't uh so I didn't time it well but what what did happen when I did do well is I got in really early so I bought back in 2019 early 2020 and was already buying for when the co crash happened so I was getting Bitcoin at 3,000 and eth at 150 bucks or whatever it was right so very very cheap and so even though I didn't sell the top it didn't matter I was up so much on my eth that it wasn't a big deal on my Bitcoin I was up so much that it didn't actually matter now I still bought on the way up so I bought Bitcoin at 3,000 at 5 at 10 at 20 I think I stopped buying Bitcoin around 30,000 was the last buy I did um so some of those buys I was down on in the bare Market but most of it I was up

on because when you're buying Bitcoin at 3,000 pretty easy to buy a bunch which is great um so the best thing is buying during the bare Market that was the thing I did the best and then in terms of altcoins I mean it was a crazy crazy crazy time it no one knew what the heck was going on back then there was no fundamentals like what Martin talks about now so everything was just a hype cycled guess the only things that I did well I wrote a lot of things down fully to like 99% down what I did do well is I sold on the way up multiple times so a was actually my first ever interesting that we just bought it now my first ever altcoin that I bought um was a and it like did a 3X within a few weeks of me

buying it so I sold like half of it and then it did another like two or three x so I sold a little bit again and then did like another whatever X and then I rode the rest down to zero or not to zero but the rest down a lot and I did that with a bunch of them so I didn't have a good strategy I just was like holy [ __ ] these things are going up like 2X 3x this is wild and I just was smart enough to take a bit of profits on those but most of them I thought they were going to go to a bajillion and rode them down so I don't think I did very well at all on the marketing exit I just bought early enough that all my mistakes didn't matter I was still up and that's why I

am so big on kind of long-term investing and trying to understand the bigger Cycles because most of us here are not pro Traders right I'm not I'm in crypto every single day and I still don't think I can beat the market if I try to trade but if I just play the Cycles I know that I can do pretty well uh and so I try to put myself in a position where I I feel confident I can succeed and I'm not just guessing trying to like hope for the best so alt same thing when the alt season comes just make sure you're taking profits and look at the bigger cycle as the cycle starts to turn over in terms of liquidity and rates everything I talked about earlier you want to get out even if your alt hasn't done its 100x like you hoped just get

out even if it's only done 50% that's it it's not a big gain you got you could have got more if you got ether soul don't care don't sit there holding it the amount of people that are like I'm still holding xrp and Dot and Ada and whatever from last cycle and it's down this much I want to wait for it to go up 75% so that it reaches the amount that I bought it at that's craziness just get out of that thing uh it just makes no sense so don't focus on the prices of these assets just focus on the cycle and sell it when the Cycle's going to turn over at some point around when the Cycle's going to turn over but the price and the amount it went up does not matter because it's never going to be what you think it is that's the best

advice I can say Martin uh European question uh how would you recommend selling crypto in Europe to avoid paying taxes on profits taken my Banks started to reject all my transactions wow this is from lukim man thank you I guess it's different in every country uh but for example in in Czech in Czech Republic there are um there are communities where you can basically sell your crypto P2P so there is a crypto chat or some telegram group where you can try to connect with people and sometimes those people want to buy sometimes they want to sell so that's the only way I can think of how to you know buy or sell crypto if you cannot use your bank do you have ETFs uh no in Europe there's no

ether Bitcoin ETFs in Europe not I I I know of no well maybe in London I'm not sure though I guess it would depend on your on your broker yeah but I guess if someone want to sell crypto here you're suggesting to to buy uh ETF so the way I get around I mean so first of all you can't really get around paying taxes like if you made money you got to pay taxes on it's just how the world Works uh like good luck trying to get around that can obviously do peerto peer as Martin said mine is like I bought a bunch of the E and the Bitcoin ETFs early on uh and and I did it in an what's called an RSB in Canada which is like a well sorry tfsa taxfree savings account and so I can sell those ETFs and

I pay zero taxes on it whenever I want now I can only buy eth or Bitcoin I don't have options to buy you know whatever token but that is the one way that I've set up early on in the cycle so that I knew that I could take some profits without having to pay taxes the rest I'm just planning I got to pay taxes on so I don't know in Europe which ETFs you would have access to or what taxfree savings account you would have access to but I'm sure they exist in some regard that's actually funny that we we are always looking for ETF approvals but who cares about European ones like we are over there I'm sure you guys have to have some yeah there must be some yeah well your markets are smaller uh okay thinking about

liquidating a small amount of gains from my portfolio to buy land one is this smart or do you suggest waiting I have a divers portfolio of mostly defi coins two what is the best way to do this without paying cap can tax we just answered the cap gain so I won't do that there Martin this one for you I guess you want to actually there is an answer for the second question as well like if if you can you can use maker to put your collateral or your crypto and take clone and then it's basically tax free so you can buy land we have someone who work did this he used he used his eth in maker to take out a loan got enough die that he bought a down payment on an

apartment in Mexico and that's how he bought his place and he never had to sell his eth as a result now he did this last cycle and so obviously the bare Market was a scary time for him but he never got liquidated he still got his place and it was all good so you can definitely do that I recommend if you're going to do that you do it early in the cycle or you do it with a hell of a lot of collateral doing it later in the cycle is tough because you know the price of these assets are going to go down and so there's a good chance you're going to get liquidated but you can definitely do that you pay no taxes if you just put your Ethan maker take that die and then go buy whatever you want with it it it is a great way to do it as

well and then the question around buying land I mean that depends on where you live I have no idea where you live I just bought a home in Canada and I did that because rates are about to go down and because rates have been high so long everyone was putting their house for sale so the market just tanked over the last four months the house that I bought I was able to talk them down over $100,000 on the price because there was literally just no buyers and thankfully well thankfully for me not for them but they were in a divorce they had to get rid of the house and so low balled the [ __ ] out of them and they had no choice so like just like you want to buy crypto cheap and you want to sell it when it's high when rates are high that's generally the best

time to buy a home to buy land especially if you don't need a mortgage or you don't need much of a mortgage I put down a a pretty large uh deposit on on my home so I got the the the house for pretty cheap obviously rates are higher right now but if you grab a variable and you think rates are going to go down then it can be very smart so that was at least my strategy so again I don't know where you're buying land Canada has a lot of immigration and not a lot of houses so like the real estate market here just continues to go up it's a secular Trend so like I think Canada is a good place to be buying land I have no idea where you live so I I can't say but um if the location is good it's a

waterfront it's always a good time to buy land for sure and if you can buy with your eth in maker then even better yeah but be aware it's still quite risky and be aware of your loan to value but like is it a good way to sell right now and buy a land I think even though it seems that maybe the the price of that land you you you might want to buy is quite low and it expected to grow it's still expected to grow much less than crypto so% you know if you if you still hold and do not sell crypto for the next 12 months there's a high chance that crypto will do I don't know let's say 3x but

the land prices might rise as well but like how much 10% but nowhere near as much it again depends like do you need a home to live in because like if you're paying rent and you want to switch that into paying a mortgage it's probably just better anyway or do you need to diversify you own too much crypto uh that it's like okay I need to diversify even though I think crypto is going to go up more I still need to diversify a little bit then it's not a bad idea so depends on what's going on in your life but 100% crypto will go up more than real estate without a doubt question regarding the pro portfolio any other projects that research team is keeping a Keen Eye on to add to the portfolio and any that might be on the borderline to be dropped out uh good question also

would love to know the ETA on the report where pro team is staking their assets that one's coming Martin I'll let you take this one anything on your eye yeah something we are keep talking about is deepin it seems like now is a quite a good time to learn more about deep in and do some updated research about the projects that are currently in in that in De Market as well as there's a lot of layer one gen two kind of blockchains which are like SOI optos monad bar chain and those kind of new blockchains which could be potentially you know ethereum killer or Solon Killers so we still do not have quite strong opinion here but

we want to learn more uh as but at the moment we still H do not have enough knowledge about those so that's something we want to learn more and about the staking our assets yeah we are actually we are going to have report about uh where we stake our assets like where do we have our eth and Tall with our updated milk Road portfolio we call it version two where we will provide all yelding strategies we use for our assets basically so it's it's coming up in in three weeks I guess yeah in a few weeks you guys will have right now you see our portfolio we can see all of our assets and our allocation everything uh soon

we'll have another page on that in that portfolio as well where you can see where we put those assets to work what kind of yield you can expect what are the risks Etc um so we'll have that coming soon and then we'll have a pro report that goes along with that that helps you understand how to do it how to think about it Etc so we'll have lots of stuff on yield coming up in September let's call it that uh when exactly we're not sure but it's coming in the next couple weeks for sure so you'll get that and then anything that you would Le like get out of the portfolio Martin they asked anything that you might drop out um I think we are quite happy with our portfolio though you will see that there are some unlocks for um some tokens in our portfolio in in few months so we

definitely have that in mind and we will keep looking at these dates and if we see some you know good returns and with these unlock un unlocks upcoming maybe we are going to sell but like nothing in the short term we we are still like pretty bullish on our portfolio we we provide this Satay our updated Theses for some of them so um yeah would you add something I think one thing to remember is everything in our portfolio yeah everything in our portfolio is invested for the cycle none of them are shortterm we did have one I think we had djen in there which was more of a shortterm we flagged it as uh and obviously markets got wrecked so mean

coins got wrecked so we sold it thankfully I think it's down a lot since we sold it um it was already I mean we were down 50% on our investment when we sold it and it's down I don't even know way more than that now uh but that was our only short-term investment everything else we're playing for the cycle so yes a bunch of our assets are down everything is down in crypto so it doesn't bother us nothing we would want to sell we think all this can catch a bid when when the banana Zone the altcoin season comes back uh and so really not gauging selling anything right now because we got to wait and see what happens when the when the banana Zone comes back right when the altcoin season hit you know if there's anything that's not working for the reason something happens fundamentally to them

we might sell but otherwise right now everything looks great and if anything every week we've got a ton of updates on all of our tokens I mean look at maker it's completely re it's not even called maker anymore it's called sky so uh Lots is happening in the assets that we've got fundamentally and um we just continue to follow that and we think over the next year year and a half um they're going to do really well at least we hope by the way one one question I just want to answer that I know there's a few questions in here people are like would you buy more of a would you buy more maker should I hold more eth should I hold more and there's one blanket answer for all this is just look at our portfolio right if we if you see that we hold more of

our our portfolio in maker than a it means we're more bullish on maker and we the answer to that question is we'd hold more maker because we do hold more maker right uh if you look at Ethan Soul or if you look at anything in our portfolio just look at the allocation percentage and that is the answer to which one we are more bullish on right someone's like should I buy everything in maker and just only hold maker well it's 3% of her portfolio whereas you know we have other assets to made that are much much greater 40 50% so obviously we don't think you should hold 100% of your assets in maker we only hold like 3% it's so tiny right so just look at the allocations of our portfolio and that'll guide you on how bullish we are what is our risk thoughts around these like

it'll tell you what are how how we are holding it right so you don't need to ask us which one we would prefer you can just see it R in the allocation so make sure you use that it'll make your life a lot easier and you don't need to ask us those questions because we're just going to answer exactly what's in that portfolio that's why it's there so make sure you guys use that check it out um I think that's it we got to wrap up we are at the end here everyone thanks so much for joining hopefully this was useful I know we didn't get to everyone's questions I'm sorry uh there's a [ __ ] there's a bunch more that we didn't get to answer it's hard to get all these in in in uh in one hour so we will uh we'll

do this again next month we'll see you all here and we'll hopefully get to a bunch of your questions maybe just maybe by next month we will be out of the boring Zone and uh I bet you a lot of our questions will be a lot more bullish than they are right now U but we'll see maybe it's one more month after that um but either way things look great we're excited to be investing in crypto and we think it's a good time to be allocating so we hope you guys are too anyway we'll um we'll keep in touch and uh we'll see you guys in the next am thanks everyone for joining it was great to have you thank you guys too bye wow what an incredible AMA we just got access to I hope you guys all enjoyed that if you like this episode please please please

help us out share it hit subscribe hit hit follow give us a comment let us know what you want to hear more from us anything you can do will help us out now this episode was just a sneak peek into the exclusive benefits for the milro pro members if you have questions about crypto or want to know which projects to follow you're going to want to upgrade to Pro and gain access to our expert research team who help you navigate the market with confidence remember nothing we say is financial advice crypto is risky investing in any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thank you for listening and friends and we'll see you in the next one

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