Crypto markets review for 2023: why markets went up

Transcript

GM GM welcome to web3 Academy your one trusted source to capitalize on the next big phase of the internet we are here to make sense of an onchain World in constant transformation I'm C rehead your host for today's episode and today is another episode of market watch but today is a little bit different because it's the holidays we and the end of the year I am going to do an overview of markets over 2023 the reason we are going to do this today is we want to understand where things came along over the year how things went why things went the way they did I'm going to help kind of back that up with some charts talking about macro analysis Etc as well as some industry stuff and we'll look at where

things went over 2023 and this will set us up to understand where are we at right now and what should we be looking for for the new year now I'm not going to go far into 2024 that's for next week's episode so make sure you check out market watch next week as well I'll dive into that but we're going to cover everything that happened in the crypto Market Market over this year pricewise so not looking at news and stuff we've already done that there's already an episode you just listen to there today we're diving into markets so if you're an investor this is the episode that you want to listen to couple things before I get started one if you like this kind of content if you like the market watch stuff if you appreciate this please subscribe to our Channel and like if you

are on YouTube please leave a comment as well that really really helps if you're listening on the podcast subscribe as well there or follow I think it's called and make sure to leave us a rating this really helps to grow our reach and help Web Academy become bigger and bigger and bigger so we can keep giving you the content you desire okay guys this is going to be a great episode we're going to be talking about salana Bitcoin ethereum I'm even GNA end this episode off so make sure you stay the end I'm G to talk about is ethereum dead and what's going on with ethereum where is that going to go in the coming short-term future so we'll dive into that okay before we get into that let's take a quick second to hear from our sponsor modern newsletters are built on paragraph that's right paragraph is a

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26 second so a few days before you're actually going to get this some things might change a little bit in the market but I mean I guess the Market's going crazy in December so maybe a lot will change by then I'm not sure but either way we're looking back on markets only talking a little bit about where we're at now so it's not going to affect too much still going to be good for you to understand we started off this year around $750 billion in market cap in the crypto ecosystem we are now sitting at 1.61 trillion so we have more than doubled the market cap of crypto just in 2023 which to me is still early stages of the bull market so it was a massive year no doubt but I think we have much bigger things to come it's why it's so important for you to understand where we

are at right now the biggest moves of the Year came very very early January February we had a bit of a dip in March and then we rocketed up again throughout April and then it was sort of a tough summer and even bit of fall where we sort of just hung out didn't do much even went down I gu over time until not until really November did things really pick back up so it was a it was a good pump early in the year but it was off the lows of the entire cycle so it didn't feel that exciting back then but then it was a struggle for about six months and then things really took off and I want to break down why those things happened because actually at web three Academy in our Pro we called both of these Market moves and we called it

in Bitcoin we called it in salana and so I just want to walk through how we came up with that so that you guys can understand where things will go next and how we can be thinking through this so as I've talked about so much this year a lot of crypto revolves around macro and the reason is liquidity is what's driving everything and so I'm going to first just talk about a few macro things and then I'll sum it up with why liquidity matters and and and what's happened there but macro really has driven everything and so if you didn't understand macro it's really hard to understand what's going to happen with crypto remember most people this year thought it was going to be another bad year just like it was in 2022 most people thought we were going lower it was going to be rough year but there was

a few people calling hey this is going to be a really good year you want to be allocated we were one of them and that obviously was the winning bet thankfully so what happened there was two big things that really moved the markets at the beginning of 20 2023 we were still in a time where we were increasing interest rates inflation was still high unemployment low at that point so there wasn't really any reason to be printing money or to be lowering interest rates and that's why everyone thought okay this is still still going to be a tough market and prices are going to go much lower what I saw and I think some others saw was we reached the peak in the beginning of this year or really the end of last year and what I mean was we reached the peak in inflation that was a

little bit at the end of 2022 and although inflation was still high the rate of change was now going the other way we were now heading downwards a lot of people thought this was going to remain and we were going to stay high but it was pretty obvious that we had come so far the opposite way um and so high that we shot up so high so fast we were going to mean revert and come back down and so we sort of hit that Peak at the end of 2022 which gave me the reason to think okay well inflation's likely going to come down from here will it go all the way to what the FED wants at 2% not sure but it's likely to come down great that should help with things I don't think the the interest uh rates change U but we should be coming down in

that sense and this is what happened I have up on the screen here CPI which was at 6 .5 at the beginning of the year and we're now sitting at 3.1 so it's been cut by more than half if we look at core inflation which is probably a little bit more important that was really the peak was 5.7 in core inflation which was basically December and we've been basically down only ever since now sitting at about 4% so on the inflation side that was one thing that really helped to alleviate markets and because the peak turn was right at the end of the year last year that was the one signal that heyy we've reached the Peak now it's time to start thinking about the future where do things go next if inflation has peaked well then it's at some point interest rates are going to

go down and so I think that's what uh markets sniffed out and was one big reason for the Catalyst that we saw if we look at interest rates the thing that I think confused a lot of people is interest rates continued to go up in 2023 right we're now sitting at the highest they've been they have not gone down yes we just recently got the pause and so that was what we termed the pivot it hasn't gone down yet but of course the pause pause was a bullish uh move but the key thing is not about pausing or going down it's again about the rate of change and the peak of the rate of change happened at the very beginning of the year right this was the Catalyst that I saw that was like oh this is it so in 2022 we were raising interest

rates by like 75 basis points to 1% every single month like it was going up big time you can see on this chart these big moves every single month right that is extremely bearish because they were getting bigger and bigger right we in April here 2022 small move upwards and interest rates and then it was like whoa we got to go bigger and then bigger and it stayed these big moves each time that was really bad and then at the end of the year in January the first move was smaller than the previous move that was the first time we actually went we didn't go down in interest rates but we didn't raise it more right we actually raised it less that's the key thing and that to me was the first inflection point for this again it wasn't peak of

the interest rates but it was peak of the rate of change of in interest rates and that was the signal and I think most people missed that but the moment that happened that's when markets went crazy in January is because again we didn't Peak on interest rates but we peaked on the rate of change and that was really really key and then again coming into the end of the year here we did the same thing this was the next inflection point which was the pivot now again they haven't lowered interest rates that'll be next inflation point at some point in 2024 that'll be the next big move in markets doesn't mean we don't have movements throughout there that'll be the next big one but this one here was now they're paused and they remained paused what everyone thought the reason the summer was so bad for markets I'll

just go back to our our total crypto market cap was so bad it's because we had that rate of change markets went up but then everyone thought oh we're going to stay higher for longer that was the big thing and it because we also had that inflation Peak back up in summer we went all the way down to three three on inflation and CPI but then it jumped back up to 3.7 and that scared everyone it was oh we're going to stay interest rates for higher for longer and inflation is getting worse but if we looked under the hood at core inflation we saw we just continued to go down and if we also understood that they can't keep raising rates which I'll talk about when we get to liquidity then we knew that that was just a bluff and it wasn't going to happen and we were calling that

for most of the summer saying guys this is not true this is not true so anyway we've remained paused they said they were going to raised three more times back in June they never did that they raised once and now they saying they're no longer raising and they're going to lower in 2024 so it was a bluff just like we thought and that was the inflection point for markets to move so much the other thing we can look at that we've been tracking a little bit is the Dixie the Dixie is the US dollar compared to other Fiat currencies so we can see that over the year for the Dixie so the US dollar of course if the US dollar is going down typically that's more bullish for risk assets if it's going up people want to be holding Treasury they want to be holding the US

dollar because it's stronger and so we kind of had this up and down throughout the year so not much change there but really what happened was in the summer when everyone thought rates were going to stay higher for longer we went on this like Bull Run of the US dollar right it went from 99 all the way up to 107 okay and so that made it really tough for markets to go up and so what happened though was once we started to realize in October that oh they're actually probably bluffing and oh inflation is continuing to go down in the core side people realize uh oh I'm in the wrong assets I need to be in risk and the dollar has just gone down down down ever since right so these were the macro trends that really changed how markets were working what this means and

why this matters is all of it relies on liquidity and I've talked a lot about liquidity Sor I've got the wrong chart up here but liquidity is what drives markets the more liquidity that comes into markets the more risk assets go up that's just how it works when liquidity comes out of markets that's when assets go go down and it's been this way since the financial crisis of 2008 when we uh reset interest rates and so obviously during covid we had this massive spike in liquidity and assets just went nuts right and then what happened was and rate of the peak here right is when we s to see oh inflation starting to go up we're going to start increasing interest rates we're going to stop printing money and so that rate of change of liquidity went down right we started to tighten and so it went all the way down and down

this was the 2022 bare Market and then again right at near the end of 2022 is when we saw the bottoming of this liquidity that's when risk asset bottomed and that's also when we started to see that next inflection point so again interest rates didn't change at this point they didn't go down but we saw that liquidity was starting to change because the rate of change went down so we were we were raising them less and that was that point at the end of 20122 why we saw that first jump now we're at the point here at the end of the year where we're almost positive in liquidity and again that's what's driving this next inflection point here uh at the end of the year so it's all about liquidity so moving in 20124 I expect this to go up really really big

as interest rates go down we print more money and so I think this goes as big if not bigger in 2024 2025 but the next point we're looking for is when does liquidity top out and head down and that's when we want to get out of risk assets but again that's something we'll look at probably in 2024 more likely in 2025 could even be 2026 so we've got a lot of time on that side of things so that's where we're at in terms of macro the one thing I want to say is when you look at liquidity it really is almost perfect we have shown this chart a few times and this is Bitcoin year-over-year percent uh change in price versus global M2 which is liquidity year-over-year change and it has been almost perfect so again we saw the bottom of liquidity it

matched the bottom of Bitcoin and liquidity has gone up globally not necessarily in the US but globally and Bitcoin has has followed that and crypto is the same thing right and so these are the sort of things we need to be looking at and and it really allows you to understand where markets are heading that is what led me to put out a report in October of this year October 19th is when it went out I put a message out in Discord a week before this because I had to actually write the report so it took a little bit but I said the stars are all aligning for markets what I meant from that was macro was turning in terms of everything I just explained on chain activity was somewhat beginning to pick up but price action was just starting to pick up as well and sentiment was just

like everyone hated markets risk markets especially crypto at this point there was also a lot of lossage and things that came with the SEC through the summer and so it was like sentiment was bad but fundamentals in terms of markets looked really good and I said look this is our moment you need to allocate if you have not done so at the beginning of the year this is the moment because they're about to go and what happened well Bitcoin absolutely took off in since basically that moment right here's October 19th Bitcoin was sitting at 28,000 we are now sitting at what 40 it hit 44,000 so that's a massive jump in a matter of two months and so really again it was all about those inflection points in macro if you understood that you kind

of could understand what's going on if you're not a pro member by the way you need to be one because I'm going to show you a couple more calls we did and again I don't get everything Perfect by any means but directionally we can definitely get these things right when were looking at these sort of indicators like liquidity and macro and so that's why Bitcoin had its big run was really the macro change was the big reason plus of course you had the Bitcoin ETF but I don't think it's only that and the reason I don't think that is because everything else went up too in crypto and so that was the Big Driver okay so the two things the spot ETF and and just the macro changes now the next thing I want to talk about here is salana obviously 2023 has been the year of

salana let's go year to dat salana started off the year around $8 it's currently sitting at 94 it almost hit $100 yesterday it's the best trade that globally there is no asset that has done better than Salata in 20123 it is UP 844 per on the year wild again everyone thought markets were going to be bad everyone thought crypto specifically was going to be bad but more than that everyone thought salana was going to be bad and there's an there's a a theme I want you to understand of 2023 because when I get to the last part of this talking about ethereum you'll see the theme that I'm talking about so first everyone thought Bitcoin crypto it was going to go down it was going to be a rough summer everyone hated risk markets and one sentiment got the worst it had

been in a long time boom it just shot up salana same thing that's the story of the year for salana was the beginning of the year was down to 8 FDX collapsed everyone said salana was dead the second Pro report we have ever put out the first we put out was on L protocol the second one was on salana and what we said was look salana is everyone's saying salana is dead okay it was all over Twitter the first sentence here is I don't know about you but is salana dead seems to be the question I'm seeing all over Twitter and in my inbox everyone was calling for Solana's death after being kind of the the star asset in last cycle and what I said was you know what to me it looks like Salon is following in eth's footsteps from 2018 which was everyone thought eth was dead

in 2018 but they had great technology there was so many developers a strong community and if those people just continued to push forward then I think it will have its big rally and it's so so so oversold and what happened well obviously over the years salana climbed a little bit it went to about 20 bucks for most of the year and just kind of chilled there so it wasn't anything that special then what happened was I put out a call October 24th so it was like I said hey risk assets are going to go on I put that call out two weeks prior and Bitcoin started to lead that but then what I saw was you know what in my prediction here of this Pro report saying it's likely Sal Falls e if they continue to build and ship new products

if they do that an onchain activity stays somewhat relevant then it should have its moment just like eth did salana became the most hated asset everyone thought it was dead Etc but what happened was people kept building all of a sudden there was uh talk of you know Visa building on salana there was the launch of a bunch of different products there was fired answer coming out which is going to make the TPS of salana go to like 1.2 million they just kept shipping and shipping and shipping they had no more outages they fixed so many things and so I looked and said okay if markets go Salon is going to be the one to go because it's the most oversold of all the assets that has the strongest or a strong fundamental but it was just so

oversold and so what happened on October 24th I put out this call and since then salana has gone from let's see October for about $22 to $100 in two months again when something has fundamentals but it's just hated the sentiment is so bad everyone's calling for its death that's generally the best time to buy it's hard time to buy it was a tough bet for me to say hey everyone salana is probably the play right here everyone was like oh it's ethereum and l2s right because it had the narrative at the time I like no I think salana is gonna really perform here and boom this thing actually absolutely took off and it's because so many people are on the sidelines you got to think of who's going to buy who's

selling there was no one left to sell salana but when risk came on everyone's like oh this thing still got fundamentals it's still here no one had soul and so everyone had to rush in just to get a bit of an allocation and that's why this thing just squeezed and went so so so big the same was true with Bitcoin earlier as well so that's the key sort of reasons for what's happened with salana now this thing has run like crazy I still think it does well in 2024 I think it's got tons of room to run I mean we've 5x in a matter of two months but it's still very far from its all-time highs last cycle so I'll talk about what I think of salana in next week's market watch again we're just talking about the recap and sort of where we're at right now so this brings

me to ethereum we talked about Bitcoin we talked about salana we understood the the Dynamics of what happened there risk was on we always think of eth as a more you know beta play to bitcoin meaning it should go up more that Bitcoin it has in Bull markets anyway it usually doesn't in bare markets goes down more typically it held up pretty strong in the bare Market but we expected when risk comes back e should outperform Bitcoin and in fact it has not at all if we look year to dat ethereum is 95 uh percent whereas Bitcoin is 163% year to date so quite a difference now why why did that happen well first of all Bitcoin always leads these markets so it always leads

something like ethereum in the beginning of the cycle it did this last year too I actually have a chart that I can show you in last cycle in 2020 is when the bull market kicked off and things went a little bit crazy 2021 was the big year but 202s when things got started very similar to what we saw this year and Bitcoin ran and ran and ran and this thing went from like 8K is something around there up to by the end of the year I think it it passed all-time highs and it reached about 20K or so 25k by the end of the year and so it had a really really good run but ethereum didn't move a ton uh at that point it was kind of just lagging as you can see

in this chart here so Bitcoin was the leader of all this and then early on in 2021 when risk was real really on eth just absolutely skyrocketed and went from $600 or $500 to $4,200 in a matter of months like literally in like three months that was just insane and a lot of people were saying you know ethereum dead ethereum is not doing much blah blah blah what's going on with ethereum is all Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin and so I think the same Dynamic is playing out today with ethereum and Bitcoin bitcoin's leading as it should be but also you have the Bitcoin spot ETF so you have a lot of people speculating on bitcoin this year and so Bitcoin did so much better okay

now look at where we're at my expectation was always after that spot Bitcoin ETF ethereum should outperform U even if it wasn't for ETFs this would typically happen in anyway right it's just sort of the flows of how it works in crypto and so now we're at a stage where well Bitcoin performed well ethereum not so much but salana and other layer ones have done extremely well they've outperformed ethereum like crazy and ethereum's l2s and so that's led us to this moment where everyone's like okay ethereum's dead ethereum's dead and so you have Peter McCormack who's a a known Bitcoin Maxi who goes remember eth and to me and this was just yesterday two days ago to me that signals a bottom and I actually wrote that you can see here L you didn't learn from last cycle bottom is soon in and

the reason I say this is last year when Bitcoin was skyrocketing or sorry last cycle when Bitcoin of skyrocketing eth was delayed as they just showed that image everyone had this they had an actual eth to eth death party uh on Twitter it was a Twitter spaces and a bunch of Maxis came on celebrated and that marked the exact bottom of the eth BTC and then eth just took off and completely blew apart Bitcoin literally the day after they had that which which is really funny and this again goes on to the sentiment when everyone's calling something dead that usually means people are on the sidelines of that asset and when as long as it has fundamentals then all of a sudden this thing will rip faster than everyone imagines and so when you see this remember eth and

everyone on Twitter right now is saying eth is dead eth is this old TCH salana is so much better blah blah blah blah blah this is your sign of okay now is the time and by the way and I also have tons of people in our Discord saying should I be selling my eth for salana salana just pumped 800% eth has still not had its move even though fundamentally it is the strongest asset in this entire space it's the only sustainable profitable toonomic structure in the space and yet everyone's saying this thing's going to die there are thousands of tens of thousands of developers thousands of companies private public uh non- crypto crypto native there hundreds of thousand investors tens of thousand validators all incentivized for ethereum to do well

do you really think this thing's going to die there's a 0% chance it dies because it has Lindy and network effects I talk about this all the time but when you have this many people that rely on it and are incentivized for it they're going to ship products they are going to do things to make this thing come back from its death just like what happened to salana and what always happens with the crypto industry every single cycle and so what I look at first of all I want to just explain why I think eth has been lagging so much other than the Flow Part it should have probably done better but the reason and this is what I'm I believe is that celsius if you remember is one of the lending platforms that went bankrupt last year they have a bunch of eth and they have an

opportunity they've been allowed given approval to continue their Bitcoin mining operations to earn Revenue even in bankruptcy and so what they're doing is in order to facilitate buying enough money equipment and other things this new business opportunity they have they need $250 million in cash to do this and they happen to have that in eth and so over the last 30 to 45 days since November which is the time that eth has been lagging so much they have been selling 8 to 10,000 eth every single day and it's still happening today and in fact they have sold and this was in their their filings as of December 19th they had sold over 30 days $243 million okay in eth specifically now they sold

some other stuff stable coins link madic aax but small small small aax is 150,000 who cares doesn't make a difference but when you're selling $250 million of an asset over 30 days that's huge that would generally tank any other asset but e ethereum not only held on it actually continued to rise now it was small amount right it again it lagged everything else but it continued to rise so when Celsius is done selling and I'm not sure if that's today or not I've been trying to figure that out I don't know yet but I know it's coming soon the last report I saw was if they sold all their eth which we don't know if they're going to do that but if they sold it all it would be done by January 14th if they continued on this trend of 8 to 10 uh,

eth per day and so either it's done now because they have enough to pay for their the business they were running or it finishes in January 14th regardless when that selling pressure is gone from ethereum there's just no way that this as long as demand Remains the Same that this asset doesn't just Skyrocket and so also the fact that you have so many people that just rotated out of ethereum and into salana and bought the tops of salana the local tops I think salana sells ways to go but you have a bunch of people that are sideline e they're not buying it right now because it's lagging you got a bunch of people that have been selling it because they think they're missing the pump elsewhere these are the moments when something is so hated these are the moments where you want to dive further

into it and you want to buy just like I called with salana before and the crypto industry previous to that I think the same setup is happening on ethereum and so I think that's where we're at and then in terms of catalysts when we think of fundamentals outside of of course ethereum has all the the toonomic fundamentals but I really want people to understand is that there's the ethereum fundamentals and then there's layer twos which have also been completely on in the last few months everyone again is saying layer twos are useless it's all about layer ones and all the I mean if you look at avac Soul near they've all done so well whereas layer twos have not and the one Catalyst that I see that's coming also early next year apart from the e ETF which is so obvious you're not

getting an ETF in any of the other smaller assets and so apart from that spot ETF coming which is likely to be approved in may we just had the announcement that EIP 4844 which is the upgrade to ethereum that will lower the fees to l2s specifically for data and so the gas fees to for l2s are going to be lowered by an order of magnitude and so if gas fees right now are 10 cents uh they'll go down to you know one cent or lower if they're 20 cents they'll go down to 2 cents so not as cheap as salana still but very very negligible in terms of it being just one cent to transact across all l2s now some are even cheaper than that some l2s are already at one cent which means they'll

go to 0.1 Cent right so we're talking a massive massive upgrade to ethereum l2s and so not only do I think ethereum the most hated asset right now does really really well in q1 I also think that layer 2s are set up to just absolutely explode and woke up this morning as I go to record this and this I think the market might already be smelling this out I mean optimism is already up 30% today uh arbitrum is up 21% now I wasn't expecting that as I recorded this but hey I guess I I I need to be quicker next time but there's still plenty of room to run and the reason I say that is if you look at the market cap of optimism and arbitrum and remember these are in in direct um competition to

something like salana and AAC right you could think of these as the competition to l1s and so but optims and arum have more liquidity both them have more liquidity than something like salana and avax they have similar users they probably have more developers and more apps maybe not than salana but close they're very comparable they at least have a lot more liquidity and so the market caps these though if you look at the fully diluted market caps of optimis and archam 12 billion sorry 12.7 billion and 13 billion between the two okay if we go to salana Solana's market cap currently 52 fully diluted 52 billion and avac uh 19 billion and so avalanch isn't even close to as successful as

arbit optimism for users transactions like all the things it's nowhere even remotely close so in my opinion optimums and Arch should be uh actually higher in market cap than aack now will it I'm not sure but they should be higher and so I think that even by the end of December we are going to see a massive run in LT tokens and in ethereum uh and so that's where I think we're at in markets right now at least for 2023 now of course moving into 2024 I've got a whole different scenario so tune in next week I'm going to dive into what I think is going to happen in markets uh next uh next year for 2024 um I'll talk again about macro I'll talk about specific tokens and in the crypto Market at large a little teaser I'm very very

bullish going into next year for many many reasons so I'll cover all that regardless one just tip because I noticed this throughout the year so far is you want to do the least amount of Trades as possible Right you want to be early in a trade early in an investment which is why we signaled at the beginning of the year getting crypto even if it's still a bit early get in now it's why we said salana early early early on when it was dead you want to get into those and just hold them you don't want to be chasing pumps and so right now everyone has you know wants to be selling their eth and going into salana and I think that or selling their L2 tokens going into salana and I think that that's not the play the play is set your bags early on you should have

already had salani you should have already had ethereum you should already have LT tokens we have been addressing this and writing Pro reports on this since early early days this this year and you want to just buy those and hold them you don't want to be swapping from one tokens to another not only does this cause tax implications but generally you're going to screw it up and that's the big problem so I don't trade much and I won't trade much for this entire couple years you want to set your bags early now if you have new cash new Fiat then buy these tokens but don't sell your other tokens as long as you have conviction in them something like ethereum it's crazy to sell that into something else when it's becomes the most hated that's the time you want to be actually buying more or just holding

on if you already have some so anyway it's been an incredible year thanks to everyone that's been following along I'm glad you guys enjoying this market watch content I'm going to continue to do this for you because obviously we just have such a big opportunity right now and congrats to everyone who has been following along that's been a pro member this entire time and has been listening to the calls we're very grateful that I've been getting them right so far I won't get everything right that's just life and that's fine but that's why we have sort of risk and we diversify our portfolios and we set ourselves up so that we don't get wrecked if you're not a pro member should be because we have a bunch of different Pro reports on how to pack your bags how to set up your portfolio when to sell and tips

throughout this cycle so those that have taken Pro know what I'm talking about here if you don't yet then in the show notes below you can sign up to our newsletter and go pro otherwise guys congrats a big year and uh looking forward to our journey in 2024 I'll see you guys next week it'll be 2024 next week which is just wild so happy New Year to everyone and I'll see you next week and we'll cover what we're looking for in 2024 thanks friends and take care thank you for listening to web3 Academy your one trusted source to capitalize on the next big phase of the internet if you enjoyed this episode please share it and subscribe or follow so that you don't miss the next one while you're at it there's a link in the description for

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