Crypto is the Last Truly Global Market | Roundup

Transcript

The demand for US dollarbased stable coins in the US is actually probably pretty low. Like we have Venmo, we have Cash App, we have brokerage accounts. Like we don't have like we just don't have as much demand for having a US denominated stable coin. On the flip side, Tether is basically rest of world for US dollar based stable coins. Yeah, huge. That is where all the demand is going to come from. This episode is brought to you by Arkham. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in the crypto markets today.

We'll hear more about Arkham later in today's episode. Hey everyone, quick disclaimer before we get into today's episode. Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is forformational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Our guest and I may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. All right, everyone. Welcome back to another bell curve roundup. You got Michael's one and two fans, fellas. How we doing? We're back. We're back. Yeah, physically. Not the markets. Physically.

We're back physically. Um yeah, doing well. Just uh hanging in there, being cool like Trump advised us to. He did. He absolutely bottom ticked. I I love the uh people that were So I told exactly what was going to happen, you know. I basically said he was going to put tariffs on, then he was going to take them off. People are like, "How is he going to take them off?" And it's like, "This is this is Trump's negotiating style." Like immediately starts taking hostages, kills one of them, and then threatens everybody else and then releases all the hostages, and everyone's good. But I thought the Walt And then and then you forgot the most important part. Then he says, "I saved everyone." Right. And the one hostage

that died, well, somebody else killed him. But I mean, I thought uh there was there was um this Wall Street Journal article that kind of detailed the inner workings of his pivot and he was just like, "Yeah, I was wa I was watching the markets and seems like the bond market got queasy, so I pulled back." And um now it's 10% tariffs on every country. Um the reciprocal ones have been delayed. Um, and then I think the end state of all of this is they negotiate bilateral trade agreements like the US, Canada, Mexico one. Um, and then there's certain goods that fall inside of that.

Basically like 90% of goods fall inside the USMCA which is the trade agreement between US, Canada and Mexico. And then anything outside of that has this 10% tariff which is like well there there's another really big status quo. There's really a there's there's another really big wrinkle which is that China still has 125% tariffs. They they did not get the pause. And also Canada and Mexico Canada and Mexico still have 25%. So it's basically No, that's not right. Any anything that's under the US MCA is not tariffed, which is like 90% of goods. Anything that's outside of that is is 25%.

That's and that's the North America free trade agreement. Is that what you're referring to there? Yeah, it's like the US, Mexico, Canada agreement or something. But everything under that agreement is so that's like all agricultural products um like a lot of finished goods, but it's most of the trade that happens between the countries is covered under that. And then anything that's outside of this 25%. Um, my favorite part about this was the broader world becoming aware of Cointelegraph intern phenomena. It was a really analogous situation, right, where there was this leak about the 90-day pause. The market shot up, but then it didn't really go down. They realized they were off sides and then actually was it ended up being confirmed and I

think the S&P went up 9% in one day. Um, and it just everyone on Crypto Twitter was like Cointelegraph intern. Uh, I actually had a couple of phone calls explaining that to some friends who had never heard of that. But I thought that was kind of my favorite part and analog to this whole saga. But when mainstream media starts understanding the crypto Twitter verse, that's when we know we've made it. Yeah. Actually, my f one of my favorite tweets on this was that, oh, we thought we were going to go mainstream, but we just pulled everyone down to our level.

Exactly. Which is pretty funny. But yeah, I what do you what do you guys make of all of this? I mean, in in terms of markets for the rest of the year, I guess we're really just it's all dependent on Trump here. Um, we a couple of the forward guidance guys, Felix and Quinn, who I got to give I got to give them credit. I mean, I listen along every week. They've been really good. They got really bearish January. Um, and then, you know, Felix posted publicly, but bought basically two days ago, right before this. They've done very well. Uh but they're starting to look at um just some troubles in in the bond market in general and you know starting to flag that the Fed might need to step in here sometime soon and it seems like yeah know just to dovetail on that I

mean look at the tenure rate and that kind of describes everything that's going on which you know the um the announcement of all of this dropped the tenure below four and then right as everything it looked like there was some distressed seller maybe it was one of the pod shops Maybe it was a country like I've heard rumors that it was a pawn shop. I've heard rumors that it was Japan. I've even heard that it was China that was basically selling anything, you know, US Treasury related driving yields up. It went up to 4.48% was the highest I saw and it's still at 4.4%. Uh and so obviously dropped yesterday, now it's back up. it.

I think the 10-year is probably going to be some indication uh as to, you know, what we're going to be looking for for like the short duration market moves. Um and and you'll probably see if things ease a little bit, you'll see the 10-year drop. Um but I I would imagine that I guess the next meeting is May 6th or May 7th for S FOMC. um chances of a cut at least yesterday were 50% plus. I I don't know if they cut there or if they uh wait till June, but June, July, August or June, July, I guess August there's no meeting. Um May, June, July are kind of the three options to see if

they if they put cuts back on the table. Um and today we also saw CPI slightly lower than expected but still at uh you know headline 2.4% where whereas we expected 2.5%. Um it'll be interesting to see kind of the next couple of data points in terms of CPI as well. Um we won't get another one uh before the FOMC. So it's hard to say whether or not inflation will be low enough for them to have justification to cut. Um which is probably one of the reasons why things are selling off a bit today. This on the 10th. Yep.

Um, yeah, it's it's going to be I think it's going to be like pretty volatile for the next few weeks and maybe even depending on what happens like July when the 90-day pause is up, you're going to see a lot more volatility because everyone's going to be expecting there to be stuff happening. Um, and you know, pauses, pauses are pauses, right? It's not it's not like it it's gone forever. It just extends at 90 days. But all that being said, I think and there's been at least some things that I've seen so far of rumors of trade deals being negotiated and potentially finalized in the next couple of weeks. So maybe that'll be positive. Um yeah, it it's all it's all, you know, closed door

negotiations at this point. So, I'm curious what you guys think about this idea of separating Main Street from Wall Street here and the ability for the administration to isolate the impacts of a stock market crash from Main Street. I had a I I talked to a buddy of mine who who runs uh he's been running a um an HVAC rollup um or he's like the point guy for deals. He personally did 50 HVAC deals last year. Um, so he basically spends his entire his like entire week uh flying out to and courting and getting drinks with and basically trying to convince HVAC guys to sell their businesses. And these are like you know 2 million to $5 million EBA businesses like very kind of

like they're basically vast vast majority Trump. Um and I was like what are what is the sentiment like on the ground? um and his so one thing that I hadn't necessarily thought of like or just connected the dots necessarily is that there's been a huge pull forward in demand uh for services right so uh what's actually and you saw there people maybe saw reports that there were like record iPhone sales last weekend when all these were were announced um but you're seeing the same thing with HVAC right and most of these most HVAC stuff is made in Mexico and so the the two effects here are you know if let's say the the halflife of a your average HVAC setup is seven years. You've got two years left. All the texts are getting on the phone and saying, "Hey, you know, we

got two years left. Like, you might as well do that." Um, and it's been so largely it's been actually received very positively. Um, there's probably going to be a whips effect like there is whenever you pull demand forward. And it's better for the big guys than the small guys. If these depending on the extent to which these tariffs end up sticking because um the small guys are just not built to absorb that type of cost where they'll probably be consolidation at the top end of the market, right? If you have a more sophisticated operation, you can absorb that. So, it's a little it's kind of mixed on the ground. I think it's actually positive in the moment. It's unlike I don't know what the long-term ability to sustain that would be. I mean another anecdote, one of our LPs um is a fund of funds and they were telling us

that one of their investors is the family office of a large um consumer product uh business that most people would probably know the name of. I won't mention, but uh think of it as like a true like consumer product household durable item. And they source all their materials from Asia. uh they manufacture everything in the United States and their largest trading venue is Europe and obviously they sell in the US as well but they're getting hit with uh material increases uh for their inputs of you know coming from China um are are going to be you know 125%. Um, so it doubles their cost, which already puts

them at net uh gross prof gross profit negative and then if they're going to sell the reciprocal tariffs to places like Europe or other countries if they were to implement reciprocal would increase it again. And the the conversation was basically, well, I guess we got to shut this company down. And it's a very large company. And I would imagine that that is probably happening a thousand times over in conversations right now across the US. And this is a US company, US founding family and US manufactured product, but input costs just went up 125%.

Yeah, it I mean it's it seems like the the strategy here was to build the coalition to negotiate with China and it seems like China was the focus of this trade deal all along. So yeah, I guess we have to wait to see if there's going to be a deal that's made. I'm not sure. It seems like the stakes are relatively high for both countries. And it does seem like maybe the benefits of how tightly the US has been coupled to China for this long is maybe it's like run its course a little bit or there needs to be some decoupling that would be beneficial for both parties. It's just how do you do that? How do you posture it? Who gets the better deal on the way out? I don't know. That's the tough part, right?

I mean, the the the other persistent rumor is that um you know, Scott Besson said that if you're allocating to Chinese stocks, like you you're on notice because we might delist you know the I think there's like almost a trillion and a half of Chinese or US listed Chinese stocks. Um and could you imagine like that happening? like no like when Russia closed itself up I think there was like maybe 500 billion lost just trapped in that market but like it's it's just you know putting China in kind of a a corner and um I think that those tariffs will be the longest poll to be negotiated and it

probably happens in phases where it's like okay you give us Tik Tok you're down to 50%. You give us a bilateral trade agreement you know you're down to 20%. like it's it'll take a long time for China. And I think yesterday was the day where it was like we're not going into a depression. Today is clearly the day where people are saying bond yields are still really high. You know, to Michael's point, 10 years at 44 and um there's probably going to be some knock-on effects from these tariffs, but um it significantly reduced the chances of like a global recession. And Trump even in the comments publicly and also in the Wall Street Journal, he said, you know, we're not looking to hurt anybody. It's like a very friendly version of Trump. Um, but I think like the bull case for Trump is

like he's capable of changing his mind and he's actively watching things and that you know there's the there's both the Trump put which is like 5,000 S&P which is basically where we are today and then there's also kind of like the the you know the Trump call where it's just like if all the policies work you know the deficit should go down and um yield should go down and all that stuff. I I think right now uh Scott Bessant is probably more oriented towards the Trump call. He's like secured the Trump put by going down to Mara Lago and you know telling Peter Navaro to go himself.

Um and now I think it's kind of like you know how do you secure the Trump call and it's more and that's more like mechanical. It's like you know making positive changes things like the supplementary leverage ratio opening up places like Wells Fargo to buy treasuries. But I I I personally think the market is just watching tenure and it's creeping up to four or five now. Um so that's a bit scary. Yeah. Yeah. I think the uh the relative shift within the administration and and sort of who's who's going up and and speaking on behalf of the administration probably tells you a lot right now. Yeah. You don't see lotnik and you don't see Navara. It's all desktop. Arkham was created to make blockchains human

readable and simplify blockchain data so that it is meaningful and useful to the average crypto user. With their new exchange, users can see what the top traders are buying and selling with Arkham Intel and then trade on that information with Arkham Exchange. To get started, follow the link in the show notes below. This episode is brought to you by Marinade. Marinade is a high performance staking delegation platform that brings both liquidity and security to the Salana network by connecting soul holders with the best staking rates on Salana. Follow the link in today's show notes to learn more. Besson's great, man. He's awesome. I I did I've listened to a bunch of his interviews. Speaks really well. Clearly very intelligent guy. I I like to see that he's got his hand on the stick. Makes me feel Yep.

Yeah. You know what? One thing that I I'm curious to get your guys' opinion. I hadn't really thought about it in these terms but it does relatively make sense here right which is so US issuer of the world reserve currency people want to hold our currency preferably in debt form right so it's yield bearing currency the way that they get that is they run a surplus against us right so if we are if the campaign here is to materially reduce the deficit then there's going to be less it would actually make sense to me that there's less of a bid for our debt right marginally Not like a ton less, but on the margins if you reverse that process of us having a large, you know, that's what happens,

right? So, what what is the I think this is the reason why Scott Bessim is so excited about stable coins because he views that as that's going to fill the hole. So, I don't know. This I know everyone's all bullish on stable coins. I've heard us talk about stable coins for four podcasts in a row, but I still don't think people are bullish enough on them. I mean it's I think it's crazy there there's a difference between bullish and bullish enough I also think like if you think about the mechanics of a trade deficit um so you know they uh you know we we give them our dollars to buy their products so they have a bunch of dollars and then they take those dollars and then they go

off and buy treasuries um with them. So like mechanically it's like we sell dollars to them and then they s sell dollars to buy treasuries. Like there there's a usually the the 10-year and yields in general move with the dollar in terms of its strength. I think potentially what you're seeing like right now is like the first time ever where it's like the dollar gets a lot weaker and then yields get a lot higher. Um that's a different type of scenario. You know what else I was thinking about is and also the dollar weakness should offset some of the yields increasing.

Yeah. The other weaker and and the funding costs are higher like maybe your net kind of the same. So the the other thing I think is maybe fair to call out, Vance and I were kind of talking about this and then also reading about it on Zero Hedge. Just the amount of leverage in the basis trade that these pod shops are running is an absolute gargantuan number. We should get someone from that world on this podcast to talk about that. The the idea that a single pod shop has two trillion of bases. No, no, that's all that's all six of them. All six of them. Okay, fine. Six Six of them have two trillion with 11x

leverage. And that's the basis trade that they're running. That's that's a that's our GDP. That's two-thirds of our GDP. You know what that feels like? You know that phrase, you owe the bank 1 million, it's your problem. If you owe the bank 100 million, it's the bank's problem. That's sort of what it feels like. Yes. Yes. And no. But like the way that they unwind this is is what's going on right now. They they sell treasuries because they need liquidity. Yeah. That's yields go up. Yeah. Is it Japan selling or is it I don't know. Enter pod shop name. Mhm. You know what I would love to know is when the tenure started to creep up, everyone said this is China selling or not everyone. There was that a lot of people were saying that a rumor and then

someone said it's Japan because they need liquidity like someone blew up. Yeah. Also like if if China is trying to weaken their currency, which they have been to offset these tariffs, like if you sell treasuries that does the opposite of that, right? Right. Yeah. So I just wonder Yeah. It just feels like that might not actually be a strategy that countries maybe they do. And then like you know and then like Chimath is like we should delay next week's 10-year auction because like this is what I think it's like did you even like think about No. has taken some beatings on the old tweeter. So I mean it it does suck when you have bad takes.

Yeah, I mean I Yeah, I haven't loved some of those takes either. So I'm a little sympathetic with the poking fun. It's like come on, dude. Um but I don't know. We should get We should get someone though that is actually running one of those uh like someone from one of these big pod shops like a M or something like that on the podcast. But you know what the other thing too just to close on stable coins is and I'd love I'd actually love to get your guys predictions if you have them for you know what you think the the total market cap of stable coins would be like a two to three year time horizon because I think it's around 250 23 between 230 and 250 right now look a trillion is inside yeah that's what I that's my sense too um but one thing also that I if you

think about because there's kind of the dollar for the market for domestic dollars but then there's a much larger market for euro dollars which is that you know it no it's not regulated and people don't have clear statistics about it but it could be anywhere could be an order of magnitude larger and it's just if you think about there's an enormous amount of demand in the world for dollars some amount of dollars make it out of the US L1 right into offshore um you know financial centers and then they you know write loans right they create uh dollar denominated you know instruments on top of that to fund you know this is how some construction project between Russia and China might end up getting funded. So the US has no insight into that whatsoever. It's actually kind of a better construction

if you think of Tether or some of these offshore stable coins as a replacement for Euro dollars. Like you know, US has direct connection to Tether, right? Like the FBI, we know the FBI works with Tether. Actually, it might be advant advantageous from the position of national security, which Scott Beth said he apparently spends 50% of his time on, to have Tether instead of this like large opaque, unregulated market that everyone has to just guess at. Well, and I mean, just think about it from a strategic perspective as well. You've got USDC, which is heavily, you know, denominated uh or or predominated in the US, which there's not going to be as much demand. I mean, if you think about

it for US dollar based stable coins, there's there's definitely going to be demand. And I know we talked about Circle one or two pots ago, but there's just one pot ago. Wow. And they've delayed, I think, their IPO since we spoke. It it has been a week. Let's put it that way. As well as CLA and IPO IPO window is shut for sure. Yeah. But the at least for the time being, but the the demand for US dollar based stable coins in the US is actually probably pretty low. Like we have Venmo, we have Cash App, we have brokerage accounts. Like we don't have like we just don't have as much demand for having a US denominated stable coin. On the flip side, Tether is basically rest

of world for US dollarbased stable coins. Yeah, huge. That is where all the demand is going to come from. Tether's at I think 144 or 145 out of the 230 240 that you know growth let's say we go from 240 to a trillion I I think that that proportion probably increases from demand for USDT as opposed to USDC and so whatever that proportion is right now let's say that it actually closes the gap in terms of the proportion that everybody else has tether increases its market share of the stable coin market we're basically using you know tether as an exporter of treasuries and US dollar to rest of world countries that want to use US dollar for payment or or holding or currency what whatever you know the

use case may be that is the strategic imperative of who's going to be the net buyer of treasuries to offset you know demand uh differences from from trade deficits it's it's a really interesting time to be alive to be honest I mean this uh if that's a massive market that you never really thought Tether it's like who's going to attack that market. But maybe Tether wins. I don't know. I mean, so like especially with these Chinese stocks getting delisted also just like imagine imagine what David Ter gets really angry. He's like this famous hedge fund guy that's very long

China. Sure. He's just like punching the air right now. But I I think like to a certain extent like crypto is the last truly global market and like stable coins are obviously like a wrinkle of that where you're exporting a currency globally but you know like if this is really what happens and you know people in China can't buy US stocks and it's soon to be vice versa it looks like like crypto is really going to be the last global market and that just gives it like um like people talk about like the benefits of decentralization and like you know all that stuff in a very theoretic term, but like when it actually makes you the last global market, it's extraordinarily valuable.

What do you what do what is your guys read? Um I have conflicting views about this because obviously I'm an American. I like I want America to win and I want to obviously I'm going to live in America for my my life. But it does as he calls in from Canada. Okay. Uh okay. But the what do you guys think about what this does some of this trade war posturing does for us on the global stage here? And you know people especially in crypto I think rightly pointed out that when we seize that or froze that $400 billion worth of collateral from the Russian central bank that undermines confidence right the value proposition of US capital markets is that we won't do stuff like that. So if we were to do something like dlist

Chinese stocks, you're you're just you're kind of slowly chipping away at trust and the advantage of being this neutral platform. I mean that that's at least I can see that long term, right? I can at least that's not a preposterous story to me. And I think crypto wins in that scenario, right? Like I think one of the challenges for decentralization in crypto has been well there's this really pretty trusted trustworthy, right? Like very liquid uh capital markets here in the US. Do we really need it to be super decentralized and have all this technical risk and yada yada when we have a good enough solution here? Um, and I I I think what it really comes down to is are are philosophically are you aligned with us and are you a friend to the United States? If yes, you

get our demand and you get our financial markets. That's what it comes down to. If you are going to be limiting like remember all the companies like Tik Tok operate in the US and you know that's one of the reasons why Tik Tok is so so valuable. Google does not, Facebook does not. None of the major equivalent companies operate within China. I'm surprised that why has that been allowed? I don't understand that. This is this is the crux of the issue. This is this is exactly what I think is going to be part of the negotiations. Why are we limited from not operating those companies and US companies which you know build US shareholder value in one of the largest markets if not the largest market in the

world. Why why is that not allowed? But they can operate here. That that feels imbalanced. That does feel imbalanced. And and like most of the volume in international stock markets originates from America. Like the domestic pool of buyers, sellers, hedge funds, market makers in like a country like Brazil is extraordinarily small. And so, not only do we have our own capital markets, but like we export capital to other markets as well. And um I think it's a great move to delist these Chinese stocks. Like the job of the CCP to keep their stock and like you kind of see this yesterday where it was like the Chinese stock market was up while we were down and then you know we were way up and they were down. It is like kind of like a condition to see who can pump their stock market more. Um, and it's going to

get extraordinarily hard if you're unable to list Chinese stocks in the US. Like one of the things I was thinking about, you know, when it when it was looking like, you know, Trump's brains got replaced with Peter Navaro's was like, you know, should I go off and buy a bunch of Alibaba in in like the PA obviously, but like, you know, should I go buy a bunch of Chinese stocks in case like we really start to unravel here? I mean, how can you even think about doing that today? and and like you know that will result in multiple compression which will result in fewer IPOs in China which will result in less valuable companies which will result in less access to capital and in an age where like you know we're spending hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers like you're putting them meaningful

meaningfully behind in places like AI or robotics. Have you guys read this piece? I think it was written by some ex AI um XAI or Open AI employees AI by 2027. Yep. Yep. We That was that was a disturbing piece. I'm not going to lie. Yeah, that disturbed me. That was pretty crazy. Uh yeah, I I I brought I mean we talked about this internally actually today. Um but I I think there's an expectation that we get to a lot of those points but the timelines are probably a little bit longer. Yeah. Um you know Yeah. O overestimate what happens in the next

two years. Underestimate what happens in the next five years. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. It's a ch it'll be a big challenge for governments what to do around this. I mean totally. I will say I will say it's impacting how we're thinking also about I mean it's already gotten to the point where yeah it impacts headcount and planning and it it matters it's already having an impact I would say well and so this is where I think it gets to be really important what happens over the next 30 60 90 days um because over 90 days like it's great that we pause for 90 but if it's really 90 and we're at basically a standstill for a full 90 days that impacts businesses investment decisions. That

impacts hiring plans. That impacts buying materials because you don't know if you're going to be able to, you know, sell them. It does. Yeah. Like that that will start to have uh a ripple effect through the entire economy that I think could have much broader implications than just the stock market selloff that we've seen so far. And it even the impact extends outside of even, you know, if you're a manufacturing business that's, you know, China's in your supply chain. It it impacts us. It it like if Trump if if if tariff fears tank the market and Bitcoin goes down 25%. That impacts us. That impacts everyone in crypto because then alts sell off 50%. And everyone's treasuries denominated in alts and people get

spooked. I mean this stuff it trickles down to every single part of the economy whether or not you're directly impacted by I mean yes we are probably the furthest removed from you know trade tariffs as an industry. We're also extremely small. So, you know, us being impacted doesn't really move the economic needle. No, it doesn't. But it it is a canary in the coal mine for what's happening for for industries that are more directly impacted by tariffs. Yeah. Sorry, that's the point I was trying to make. Exactly. Yeah. So, but that makes me think that they'll do something to resolve this. I don't I don't really think it's not going to take 90 days is my point. But there's going to be intermediate steps and improvements and plans made and 90 days is just air cover for air cover for

negotiations. Yeah. The last thing I would say on this is like the the depth of your capital markets is extraordinarily important at a time where we're building AI, robotics, you know, trying to reshore, trying to re-industrialize, you know, rebuild the military. Um, and like you can't afford to have like the supply chain of capital gum up and and like you know um there's an AI company in China. It's kind of like the main Deep Seek rival. I think it's called like Mensus or something. I might have gotten the name wrong. Mantis maybe. Mantis. Yeah, Mantis. And um they went out to raise and it got reported in Bloomberg and it's and they're raising at a $500 million valuation.

Like opening eye just raised at$350 billion. Meow. What advance the quote? Meera went out to go raise one on four and she got two on 10. Yeah. The the one of the open a open AI uh co-founders, board members, whatever. Um how deep your capital markets are really really matters right now. And um it feels like US allies will be granted some fraction of that. And then, you know, having the whole world pump your market is one thing, but like if you're China trying to defend yours, it's like entirely another.

And I mean, yeah, you're either kind of like in US stock markets now or you're in something decentralized like crypto or gold or uranium um or stable coins, but like I don't really see a viable option to allocate to the Chinese stock market if you're if you're an investor today. And that really hurts them. their bonds are getting smacked at the moment, too. So, yeah, it's a I I also think that even as bullish as people are, I mean, I don't know if you guys saw Sam Alman tweeted out something, you know, we had one of the best, you know, launches of all time or something or maybe it was their CPO. Uh, you know, we got a million, you know, users in the first week and we just got a million

users in the last hour. And I will say just in terms of how we're thinking about this as block works as well is you know subs for people it's yeah I think it's I think the I think the growth is actually I think the growth is just starting here. I think it's yeah very real super useful. It's a huge it's a huge deal. It's a really interesting thing to be living through. Um so I don't know I so I agree with you that I think it's a huge opportunity for it's it's definitely an massive advantage that the US has here as well. Um I I listened to Brad Gersonner describe the OpenAI raise as a private IPO because the 30 billion or 40 billion I think they raised there's a tunch there's $10 billion tunch and then the 30 they're getting presumably after some milestones

or something but the milestone is turning the company to a for profit. The milestone is AGI has been achieved internally. I mean I don't know the ins and outs of the lawsuit. It's going to be really interesting to see. But when you start a company as a nonprofit and somehow expect to take it public as a for-profit entity, that that feels disingenuous. It does for sure. I don't think anyone thinks it actually one of Elon's funnier trolls. What am I missing here? If they call it closed AI. Yeah. Venture capital. I can get tax write offs for early stage investing. Over the years, we have seen a multitude of hacks, rugs, and bundled launches. The number one way

that crypto traders can protect themselves and the wider community is through onchain analysis. Knowing who is moving funds and where those funds are going. Paired with their new exchange, users can see what the top traders are buying and selling with Arkham Intel and then trade on that information with Arkham Exchange. Arkham's exchange provides traders with the tooling and liquidity to take action in crypto markets based upon their onchain observations, bringing them the world's first exchange powered by crypto intelligence. To get started, follow the link in the show notes below. Hey everyone, quick shout out to today's sponsor, Marinade. Since launching in 2021, Marinade has expanded their suite of products to provide solutions for both DeFi users and Tradfi, including liquid and native staking, as well as

direct enterprise integrations. Marinad's platform is optimized for institutions to securely expand their exposure to Salana. Whether through the provisioning of custodial or non-custodial yield, integrating staking rewards into Salana financial products, or leveraging Marinad's best and market rewards rate for revenue and treasury management. Whether you're in DeFi, Tradfi, or somewhere in between, Marinade has something for you. To learn more about Marinade, follow the link in today's show notes. I've got a question for you guys. I have um a buddy Miles who's you know sometimes come on the show has flagged to me this uh he's been diving a little bit deeper into commercial open source as a strategy and I was listening to Bill Gurley describe some of the strategy of you know like

llama within like open sourcing different parts of like what was the strategy of open sourcing llama and their uh the weights there and you know times where companies will use uh open source either offensively like that or defensively like Amazon uh had a private solution for what was essentially Kubernetes. And so Google wanted to commoditize what would have otherwise been a you know a huge win for Amazon. So they released it open source and kind of got everyone onto that platform. So just it just kind of made me think that in crypto it doesn't maybe these conversations are happening behind closed doors but it doesn't feel like we're that sophisticated. It's kind of just it should all be open source and you know if you don't do that you're against the ethos and there's social shaming. But there's actually a lot of

advanced strategy around this and different business models which leverage open source in general. I'd be curious and I'm sure you guys are probably privy to some of these conversations if they're happening. I mean how sophisticated do you think from a strategy perspective we are about open source in general? Uh I mean all the Salana stuff is closed source. It is. Yeah. So like I feel like legit knock I think on the Yeah. like I I don't I think it's I forget whose is. I guess maybe like Phantom or something. Uh maybe a few other protocols, maybe like the pump wallet, but uh it can be an advantage, it can be a disadvantage. I I think it mostly it comes to security when I think about

open source and like making sure it's battle tested like because it's live fire exercises in crypto and you know if you have a security bug that means your users lose money um the open source nature of a project can be very very important and so I I think the the the open source nature of the AI stuff is much different where it's like a lot of it is public you know there's APIs you can call but like the specific model weights are what are like the closely guarded secrets. Uh that and like where you get your data from.

Where'd you get the where'd you get the Giblly data from? Oh, interesting. But he's just like wearing people down on the data side such that like they don't have a defense. But I think it's more strategic to avoiding regulatory capture, business model erosion, or just like copyright violation for for AI versus crypto. Mhm. Yep. Yep. Uh how sophisticated are we? I I would say not very um in terms of strategy of what's open versus closed. Look, I think that there is a model that makes sense where you have certain aspects that are closed because it's proprietary. Sure. Where the rest of it is open. The reason why you want something to be open is because that's going to be the interface for

both consumers and developers that would ostensively be building on your platform. If you if it's open for developers, you want that to be the case because that is how you have business development. That's how you build a community. That's how like people can build on top of you. But if you have something I mean in AI it's like you know to Vance's point literally the engineers at Azure and GCP who are the ones that have the computers that touch the model weights are airgapped organizationally from the rest of GCP and Azure. Like there's no interaction.

that is the lock and key 247 armed guard security model that they have for the model weights. Obviously, we don't have a similar thing in crypto, but the the idea that everything's just open and free and let's take it and go, I I think is is not as sophisticated as it could be like there there could be aspects that are important to keep proprietary. It's and I think it's already if you look at it, it's already starting to diverge. Optimism versus arbitum is a decent example of this where optimism has been MIT open source since day one and actually it's it's something that they've used to criticize arbitum which is not necess there's a business source license I can't remember which one but but the difference is is that you basically have to pay a little bit for

licensing in arbitum but then once you pay that license you can do anything with it whereas optimism is actually moving the other way and the trade-off of that is you're in the op stack now and so like it's a salient example of this is they denigrated the ability to use your own token for gas, right? So, if you're in the super chain, you're using ETH and they're going to because that's the way that they have to generate value of cool, right? So, and it it it's still the case, I believe, that 15% of your revenue goes to optimism. Yeah, it's Yeah. You say 15 or 50? 15. Yeah.

155. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Um right. So yeah, it's that's what makes me think these strategies must be being had at some point. But um I I think there's a historical precedent of fully open source fully decentralized to therefore become basically a non-security. And if you aren't that, there's potential risk that you would be declared a security because of centralization concerns. Is that still the case? I like we need market structure bill to be able to tell us frankly and you know what is decentralized, what is not decentralized, what is a security, what is not a security. Once we have answers

to that, I think we're going to start to get a lot more sophisticated in terms of the business models around how you can operate within the confines of that framework. Have you guys heard any rumblings about the market structure? Yeah, stable coins is the only thing that's working its way through right now. Okay, so Coinbase put out uh I don't like an ex article um essentially asking the powers that be to reconsider this uh provision in the stable coin bill which would prevent them from sharing yield back to users. Uh and it got shut down. French Hill shut it down. So I know we talked Yeah.

Um what is wants to Coinbase wants to keep that billion dollars. Well, I guess actually so they would keep the billion dollars, but you wouldn't be able to earn yield. So I think that this is directly affecting that whatever 3.9% or however much you get right now to have USDC on Coinbase. So So remember I I think this was actually two maybe this is one once again it's been this week has felt like a month. Um, I I think we talked about how that 3.9% that you had on Coinbase may be yield uh in the same way that the bill is drafted.

Um, which does call into question whether or not that will persist and then calls into question whether growth for USDC will persist. Well, also I'm not sure Coinbase is a little very bearish for Circle because Circle passes back a lot of the yield on a lot of stable coins. Well, yeah. So and so this is the question is this directly affecting that capability and if yes tough if no maybe it's okay okay so here is the well how how I don't how will it be treated within so if you go on to uh Coinbase right now and you deposit USDC you're getting f 4% or something like

that yeah and I'm pretty sure that that gets bucketed into sales and marketing expenses It's like customer acquisition cost. Yep. So, isn't that the same if you pass it back? Like, here's the other thing. Like, Coinbase owns Circle. So, like if you pass back yield to yourself, does that count? I I don't think Coinbase owns Circle anymore. Yeah, they do. Uh Coin actually Circle repurchased that equity, I think. Yeah, I think that was Yeah, I think that was a detail. The partnership they have with Coinbase, Coinbase takes about 60% of their top line. It's more than it's more than half. Yeah. So like maybe they need to like repurchase that for that to really work. But I mean there are some issues here with the stable coin bill.

And I think the net effect of this stable coin bill is that you're going to make Tether and USDS way way stronger. Well, just to play it out, I mean the only one that doesn't pass any yield back right now is Tether. Is Tether. Tether will start a new and this was reported in Bloomberg they will start a new stable coin in the US for US users right so you know USDT US whatever it would be called but I I I think that there is a question as to whether or not if you can't pass back for 3.9% can you pass back any yield from any stable coin tough for circle traders AI enthusiasts

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companies of the future such as Coinbase will build on decentralized protocols like Morpho. Whether you're an individual fund fintech or institution, Morpho is for you. Follow the link in today's show notes to try Morpho today. What do you guys think? Uh I know you mentioned that the actually Vance you wrote a whole tweet about this uh just about the IPO window being closed and you know buckle down essentially I'm paraphrasing here but do you think do you get the sense that it's closed for a long period of time? I I know I'm asking you to speculate about tariffs and whatnot here so it's tough but I think it's closed for the time being at least for the next 90 days because like they're not going to like put it on the schedule just to pull it back. And I think also kind of like the

token launch window is similarly closed. Um and and just so everybody knows this and like I see the lowflat high FTV critiques on crypto Twitter from time to time you know coreweave the IPO went out I think two weeks ago. Guess what percentage of float that has out? It has about you know 3%. Like this is really that low. Wow. Yeah. This is how you launch public companies. You don't launch all the float on day one and like people advocating for like let's just do no VCs 100% upfront. It's like that doesn't work and nobody does it for a reason even in tri they're looking at the wrong thing. I just you're just looking at the wrong thing.

If these were attractive assets people would buy them. The problem is totally aren't attractive. Totally. Yes. Exactly. Yeah. So I don't I completely disagree with this. This is one of those things that was not broken, right? Like this was just not a broken thing. This is how everyone else does it. Yeah. So, I'm with you. Um, okay. So, closed for maybe 90 days here or something like that while there's still uncertainty around which means that it's closed for probably like half a year. Half a year. Yeah. You'll see more IPOs in Q3, Q4, but you know, there's there's nothing coming the time being. And I think everyone in crypto also realizes that.

So, yes, it is time to buckle down. Um, and there's less capital, so it's time to kind of make things that have real product market fit. Okay, speaking of that, something that people are very excited about is the idea of tokenized equities. Uh, so I think it was recently announced, we've tried this so many times, like tokenized debt is the thing that's going to really move the needle. Um, tokenized equities is just like this like pseudo retail narrative that you know people think we haven't tried, but like if you don't think that we have tried that, you just have not been around for long enough to notice. And why is it even that attractive? I don't really understand. I mean, how many people are really barred? I mean, I guess you could

say people in China can't access US equities, right? And so case in point, do you think that the SEC is going to allow just a free flowing tokenized equity world to exist? No. Right. Right. Yeah. There synthetic Tesla is not going to exist on chain without without serious KYC checks and limitations on who can trade it. Well, well, actually tokenized base or tokenized coin is on base uh and it trades at like a $5 discount to the to the actual stock.

Yeah, that's uh that's not great. I um we I think we were talking about the only reason Okay, but the only reason that they can do that is because Coinbase literally knows who you are. Yeah, right. You're literally KYCed. So, okay. What do you guys think about maybe last last uh story we can cover here is there was a little there was an announcement actually this morning that kind of went under under the radar I'll share my screen here but um this is from a some like some sort of automated US corporate filings digest uh but it's a partnership exploration in between TLGY acquisition corp um and the Athena Foundation so this is to translate that that is a spa that they're talking about city we're coming back spa we are so

spack Sorry, it's terrible. Um, all right. So, the uh this is a non-binding LOI uh that was signed with the Athena Foundation to explore a potential partnership involving the acquisition of a validator business and the purchase of up to 100 million in ENA tokens at a discount. The partnership aims to support proof ofstake services for the Athena ecosystem with terms to be finalized in a definitive agreement yada yada. Th this is okay. So broadly the the other thing that happened this week is Marco Santoi announced um the Kraken uh former general chief legal officer whatever um he announced that he has taken over I can't remember the name of it maybe like

joiner or there's some company that basically trades uh he he's basically turning this into a micro strategy for Salana and on the announcement it was up like 800 900% % and yeah, and they're they're going to do the exact same thing. Look, what I think happens is um and you know, there's rumors of like people starting the exact same thing for Ethereum and doing that and yeah, I've been hearing it's the quintessential meme of the roller coaster that goes all the way up and then it comes like down and then down and then down and it just like asmmptotes towards zero. It's like everybody's going to try this with all

the different types of assets. we're doing this for that. And some of them may get a bounce. Some of them may be worth more as the case with whatever that company is with Marco. Maybe worth more than what it was trading for before the announcement. But I nobody's going to be able to touch sailor and strategy. Do you guys know what that roller coaster is, by the way? The youth, you know why it's called the euthanasia coaster? No. It was a hypothetical design by some engineer or architect to uh how you would kill a roller coaster full of people.

It's actually called the Euthan Asia coaster. Yeah. Perfect. I mean I'm just looking at TLGY the Athena one. I mean first of all like guy is really good at putting these deals together and I think this is interesting kind of no matter what but you know this is a $114 million market cap company. Like these things are small, so you got to start somewhere, but like this will be a long road to to like build this into something real. Well, do you remember the company? This is maybe a couple weeks ago. The company that said that they're doing this is publicly traded company. The company said that they're putting their entire uh balance sheet into ETH. It's publicly traded company. Who? The market cap of the company was $6 million.

I'm not even kidding. It's Yeah. I mean, look, like every everyone is just looking for that like liquidity portal that can take them 10x. And I and I honestly think the best one of this is like the rumor that we've heard is like consensus goes public and runs the micro strategy playbook. like they have real businesses, you know, they've got uh MetaMask, they've got Infura, they've got like all these different kind of businesses like there there is um I think there's a real chance that works for ETH, but anything smaller than that is going to be tough. Athena is going to be there's I've heard there's a slew of these things like 15 or 20 similar, you know, kind of tier two or tier three.

Not that Athena's great, it's just a smaller liquidity, smaller market cap token, right? Yeah. It's just not It's just not um I do Guy has been pretty innovative on and pretty focused on getting Trafi exposure uh to ENA. So, I think he's got he he put out a treatise maybe two three months ago on the master plan for Athena. This was preconverge the L1 the PA L1 that they announced. But there was something in there about creating SPVS which allow Tradfi to get exposure to uh USD. Um so he's and he's his background is in is he's a hedge fund guy, right? So he is I think pretty good at putting together these legal

structures and whatnot. So yeah, just just to close the loop, it's called Cosmos Health. The market cap is now $8 million. It's called Cosmos Health and it's going all in on ETH. It's on the NASDAQ. COSM devastating for Adam. Oh, and you know what? I have you guys paid any attention to I saw that IBC Eureka Eureka came out today. So IBC v2 um it's a much there was historically right there have been all these startups to connect uh EVM chains with uh IBC.

And I guess part of the reason for that, why that's been so difficult is because the amount of you know handshakes that you need um in between they're basically like uh connectors in between the host chain and the receiver chain. They all just need to ensure that you know they're secure. So every single time there's like 10 different exchanges that needs to happen. This has reduced that to three. Um and you actually saw I think they're starting uh with with it seems like they're focused on Bitcoin as an ecosystem. So, they've got a partnership with Babylon had their TGE and mainet went live this week. Um, and I think you've got Lombard LSTs, right, that you can transfer on IBC now. And you can also I saw a um an atom a native atom ETH pool on Uniswap on Ethereum,

which was cool. So, yeah, maybe some rejuvenation from the hub. I really like the skip guys, Barry and Mag. They're leading things over there now. So, you know, maybe some hope for optimism there. Be cool. Um, what else, fellas? Anything else? We missed anything? We got a new SEC chair. Yep. He just got confirmed today. Wow. Pretty awesome. It's official. Um, we got some other uh notable stuff. Let's see if I can find it.

Um, actually Brandon on our team had a good tweet. DOJ ended its national cryptocurrency enforcement enforcement team. Oh yeah. Uh Treasury is releasing reassessing blockchain regulations to boost innovation. Oh, you know what was an interesting one? Ripple acquired Hidden Road or 1.25 billion. And yeah, it seems like they're diversifying away from the core business of selling XRP. No, just kidding. They uh they but it's it's an interesting play. Are you though?

Um, yeah. I mean, so one thing that was shocking to me actually is I guess Hidden Road has been quietly murdering it because they had three trillion dollars passed through them last year. I mean, that is Do you guys use them? I mean, that's maybe you can't use them, but we we know a lot of people who do. They have an interesting business model of like they like so much of the problem of setting up like a trading fund is like building all your exchange connectors, building all your logic, building your paper trading system, building you know your latency to be competitive and then getting funding and then like they offer that allin-one including like all your execution and all the you know basically money that you would need to get started

and they either take a percentage of your trading volume or a percentage of your profits. It's it's like a very interesting business and um it going to Ripple is a bit weird honestly the highest bidder. So I looked at it and I was like this it feels I don't understand this but once that $3 trillion dollars worth of trades that cleared through hidden road then it makes sense right like that's Ripple wants that on their ledger right exactly think about it this way Ripple is a connective layer right in their at least uh and they connect all the financial institutions of the world blah blah blah whatever their pitch is which you know doesn't land um hidden road is a connection layer that's actually working

and actually making a lot of money, I would imagine. I mean, I would imagine a 12 $1.2 billion uh acquisition price, they're probably in the like tens of millions of dollars of revenue, if not over a hundred. And I I I so I think, you know, this is definitely you look at this from a Ripple taking the cash on the balance sheet that they have from selling XRP and turning that cash into something that generates you basically an asset into an into a revenue line item. Yeah, that's positive. Um, it also is something that is probably aligned with at least the philosophy of what they're trying to do. How how you're going to be able to plug like Ethereum transactions into or like transfers

into, you know, somebody that lives on the Ripple consensus layer. Yeah. Makes zero sense to me, but maybe they'll try. I I would be worried that for for uh people at Ripple or XRP holders, um I would be worried that you're going to try and do it and in the process kill the business of Hidden Road. Exactly. By the way, let me ask you guys something. What is I actually have no idea. What are the specs of running a validator on Ripple? How decentralized is the network at this point? Do is that information?

Be best friends with Brad. Um, you know what the I mean, isn't it a pretty stunning comeback story though? I like a couple years ago. Think about Ripple or XRP making a comeback like this. And I'm not commenting on it one way or the other. It's just it was highly unlikely even going into, you know, six months ago. This was very I don't know how this is the case. Look, this this story is not over. The story is definitely not over. that I don't know how this is the case, but over Christmas and New Year's, I was with my family in Hawaii on vacation and three independent times, this is post-election kind of pre-craziness, three independent times, twice playing golf with random people.

Yeah. I I overheard conversations about XRP. I mean, you on Tik Tok? You guys been on crypto Tik Tok? I don't have Tik Tok. I've never downloaded Tik Tok on my phone. I have Tik Tok. I download on my phone. I downloaded it for this and I don't know for whatever reason everyone on TikTok talks about XRP but like literally golf guys be who do not know anything about crypto or or you know probably financial markets being like I heard that Trump is going to say that you have no taxes on US denominated or US originated cryptos and like XRP is the biggest like it's going to $10. It's like, oh my god. I think we're I think broadly we're getting to the point in crypto where it's like we're moving from

a a voting contest to a weighing contest. And look, like if you're like a $200 billion asset like Ripple is, you better hope that you have a fair bit of fundamentals behind you because like there's just not enough buyers to keep that thing at that price for that long. Yeah. Well, one thing that I do think I mean going back to this, you know, open like the business models that get built around open source. I think one thing that has historically been kind of looked down on a little bit in crypto across all ecosystems, Bitcoin, Ethereum, definitely Cosmos, is this idea of BD and being like much more structured and intentional about that.

And actually, all the dino coins kind of have this advantage that this is what everyone gave them so much for for so long, right? It's like a company. And actually if do you know who they always had Ripple always had a really good uh brand with is banks. If you talk to banks like they always had a good relationship with uh it's because they were Google Ventures and Dre Horowits backed and you had like the button tie you know Chris Larson and Brad Garlinghouse way back in the day. You had like look I we we I we actually know the team from way back in the day because it was you know early San Francisco crypto in 2013 2014 was Ripple believe it or not. This is even like before the Ethereum white paper was launched. So long long time ago. Oh yeah, long time ago. But things have

changed, let's say. Uh and you know they they were the ones that first came out with a smart contract platform called Kodius and they were building all this open source technology and like they would have developer hackathons and meetups and like it it was they were smart contracts way back in the day. Joey Krug, right? Joey Crew, they shifted and you had Jed Maleb who was one of the co-founders. He like rage quit and sold all of his tokens over overnight one time and really Yeah. or he announced someone has got to do a book on these stories that someone has got to compile all these and and I got I got PTSD from being up in the forums at four o'clock in the morning.

What's going on? I mean literally literally Ripple used to run their own exchange. Yeah. Ripple trade. And you could you could lose your password for your wallet and you'd like, you know, you'd hit up customer support and like Ripple's team would help you recover your coins. So the the the that used to go on is insane. But yeah, why like why do they have this status? It's because they were, you know, professional. They were San Francisco. They were like at the at the same time you have the loose confederation of people that you call an organization at Ethereum trying to build open source technology when not a single person has an entire capitalistic bone in their

body. Like that's like the two things that are going on in simultation that obviously it's the one who has more business orientation who's going to work with the banks. Now does that translate to real value? We'll see. But I think that we're also kind of like maybe we started off like Ripple had a lot of, you know, they moved in the direction that they did. Then Ethereum kind of took over as this decentralization theme, open source theme took over. I I think kind of tying a lot of our conversations today together is like we'll probably end up somewhere in the middle where you need to have a BD team, you need to sales, you also need to understand open source and developer ecosystems and how to build platforms that people want to build on top of.

we'll get some clarity around what's a token, what's a, you know, commodity security, whatever. But like you got to have somewhere in the middle. You have to be a little bit more aggressive and a little bit more capitalistic. You can't just be, you know, a found. Uh, and you can't just be like a sales or boil a room style trying to cram, you know, tokens down people's throats. No, you cannot. No, that's all very healthy. I hope we are moving into the weighing mechanism phase of crypto. I I think there are signs that we are. Maybe I think we are. I mean, not maybe throwing out a a wrench into the end of the conversation, but I I do think that uh you know, one of the conversations that

Vance and I have been talking about is uh is it a better business to be, you know, basically selling DeFi or selling blockspace? What do you think? I think the industry is going through a transition from blockspace to DeFi. Um, and you know, I I think within DeFi, a lot of people are going through a transition of like, is it better to sell swaps or is it better to sell loans? If you're in the lending marketplace, is it better to be the stable coin or is it better to be the marketplace? Like there there's multiple layers to this question, but I do think it follows from a point of view of I would actually say it's even

broader. You're either selling yourself as money, you're selling blockspace, or you're selling DeFi. And then under DeFi, there's all these kind of like sub themes, but like you kind of need to think through those first three first. And that's like what we're spending a lot of time doing right now. And um as this week was unfolding, you know, we were we were buying the things that we thought would kind of be in this future paradigm. Um and so I think there's like actions to take, but everyone needs to think through this on their own because like there are ramifications to the industry and like in the case of Ripple, like what the are you selling the token? Like it's like some of these things are nowhere. I think everyone has to like no one really

escapes this idea of having to generate some amount of whatever whatever pick your you know rev fees you have you have to I think Bitcoin is the only one that gets away with not being able to do that and so yeah I think the industry is sorry it's in the money camp I put Bitcoin and stable coins both in in money yeah I would too um so yeah I think that we're just going to have to figure out the industry is on the cusp of figuring that out and um I think we're going to get there. But yeah, fun fundamentals drives markets hence forward. Keep that in mind. All right, fellas. I think we can uh call it here.

This is a good one. And uh hopefully markets up by the end of next week or Bill, we didn't talk about Bill Aman crashing out. We just acknowledge that that was funny. That was a funny thing that happened this week and we shout out Bill let us what I said is it's not a true bare market until Bill Aman crashes out. So, please check that on the checklist. Do you guys remember the uh Hell is Coming episode that he did on TV? I mean, oh my god. Also, while he put on $2.7 billion dollars of puts. Yeah, that should not be allowed. That should you know, you know, I know Novo got some heat for, you know, selling a little bit of Luna while now to be fair, like look,

you can't dump on people while you're getting a tattoo of Luna and saying to the moon. He only dumped 7.5% of his whatever. I could kind of see it. But the ACA thing sound seems worse than I I think that the only argument that you have is single asset versus market. Wait, did did you say Nova only sold 7.5% of his Luna? Yeah, that's not true. Oh, at at that time. I guess at that time on that day. Yeah, maybe on that day. Yeah. Yeah. No, I know they I know they Well, I heard rumors about how they maybe ended up that position, but yeah, for another time. for another time. For another time. Nothing confirmed. So, all right, fellas. That was a good one. Talk to you soon. Later.

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