Could Trump's Tariffs Bring About a Recession Like 2008? - Bits + Bips

Transcript

no, no, no, The, the, word, is, nonsense, It's disrespectful, nonsense, It's, like, it's like, it's, like, they, coming, to, you, and saying "Look, the, sky, has, been, red, in, the, last 100, years.", You're, like, "Well, no.", Well yes, And, if, they, repeat, it, a, million times, and, then, basically, 50%, of, their supporters, believe, it, the, other, 50, don't And, they, believe, it, And, uh, and, how, can you, negotiate, about, the, sky, with, your partner, if, your, partner, says, but, but it's, blue, No, it's, red, We, t, the, penguin It's, a, fundamental, problem, Straight, out of, straight, out, of, 1984, If, we're, if, the government, says, 2, plus, 2, is, five, then

it's, five, Anybody, got, anything, positive to, say, hi, everyone, Welcome, to, Bits, and Bips, exploring, how, crypto, and, macro collide, one, basis, point, at, a, time, I'm your, host, James, Safford, Tradfi, Arch Maester, and, Lord, of, Bloomberg's, Enden Here, with, Alex, Krueger, Krueger, Macro, of House, Asgard, protector, of, the, realm, Hi everyone, Also, with, Noel, Ason, high, seer and, keeper, of, the, crypto, is, Macro, now newsletter, Hello, everyone, And, last, but not, least, Rahm, Alawalia, Maester, of Wealth, leader, of, Luma, Hey, guys, we're here, to, discuss, the, latest, stories, in the, worlds, of, crypto, and, macro, Just remember, that, nothing, we, say, here, is investment, advice, Please, check unchaincrypto.com/bips, andbips, for, more disclosures, Crypto, moves, fast, It's, why Bitwise, launched, the, weekly, CIO, memo, a

jargon-free, summary, of, what's, moving crypto, markets, written, by, one, of, the best, in, the, business, CIO, Matt, Hogan, Get up, to, speed, in, 5, minutes, or, less, Check it, out, at bitwiseinvestments.com/CIO, memo Carefully, consider, the, extreme, risks associated, with, crypto, before, investing All, right, guys, Uh, right, now, we're recording, this, on, Monday, April, 7th, Um anyone, who's, been, following, anything with, the, markets, will, by, the, time, you're listening, to, this, know, that, today, was insane, Um, Friday, was, an, absolute bloodbath, No, matter, how, you, look, at, the numbers, um, things, are, not, looking, good So, I'm, just, going, to, throw, out, some, some risk, metrics, or, risk, assets, that, I, look at, Um, we, have, the, S&P, 500, is, down, 17% since, midFebruary, The, Q's, are, down, 21%

Mag, 7, itself, is, down, 25, 26%, Small, caps are, down, over, 20%, All, of, this, is obviously, due, to, Trump's, tariffs, Um, when I, look, at, a, bunch, of, data, in, the, ETF world, we, have, these, fear, gauges, and market, capitulation, gauges, Uh, pretty much, everything, is, ringing, off, the, hook Um, we, look, at, total, volume, in, ETFs, We look, at, SPY, volume, It, tends, to, correlate with, VIX, Like, when, all, of, these correlate, together, it's, like, a, really good, signal, that, there's, there's, a, lot of, market, cap, capitulation, happening, A lot, of, people, moving, stuff, around, and that's, all, happening, right, now, Uh, US ETFs, alone, just, smashed, their, their record, They're, trading, over, around, $650 billion, today, Uh, the, prior, record, is from, 2022, which, was, like, 480, billion

just, to, so, these, numbers, like, everything is, kind, of, off, the, charts, Volatility, is really, high, not, absurdly, high, uh, we, hit a, VIX, of, 60, today, which, is, extremely elevated, Again, these, types, of, times, are usually, signs, of, capitulation, Longer term, from, them, they, tend, to, be, good times, to, you, know, think, about, dipping and, and, buying, into, these, these, markets You, know, buy, when, there's, fear, in, the streets, blood, in, the, streets, you, name, it Um, all, those, things, So, but, it, doesn't matter, when, you're, when, you're, you're staring, this, in, the, face, It's, kind, of hard, to, you, know, look, at, this, when you're, thinking, that, there, might, be, a completely, reshaking, and, rejiggering, of the, world, order, with, what, Trump, is, doing with, these, tariffs, But, um, Alex, you, are probably, the, most, actively, trading, in the, space, on, the, on, the, panel, today, on

the, podcast, Why, don't, you, talk, to, us about, like, what, you've, been, doing, like the, last, few, days, and, compare, it, to, you know, 2020, and, 2022, like, how, is, this different, and, then, we, can, get, into, uh how, ROM, is, is, handling, this Let's, see, Um, it, it's, been, very, different than, 22, and, 2020, Um um, I, I, would, say, this, is, like um, how, to, put it, It's, it's, the, difference, with, with with, uh 22, is that, that, was, something, we, had, two drivers, One, was, the, Fed, the, other, one was, Russia, Mim, and, Ukraine, So, we, had, on one, hand, we, had

um, we, had, the, Fed, uh, delivering, the, most aggressive, shock, monetary, shock, since, uh the, early, 80s, since, Walker, Um, and, uh, on the, other, hand, we, had, basically, Russia being, Ukraine, and, and, supply, chains around, the, world, just, literally, going going, tiptop, right uh, when, it, comes, to, the, market, the, the the, correction, was, you, could, you, could in, a, way, maybe, compare, this, with, uh April 2022, which, basically, followed, the, FOMC of, of, the, end, of, March, of, 20, 2022, which which, is, when, the, Fed said, really, [ __ ], you, to, the, market, but that, that, was, not, even, remotely, as, as

aggressive, and, sharp, and, and, vertical, as what, we, just experienced, So, let's, put, it, this, way, Uh the, bigs, hit, 60 today, Uh, the, bigs, in, uh 22, Uh, the, lowest, we, went, at, any, point, in time, was, uh, uh, we, didn't, get, to, the, 40s At least, bigs, didn't, close, close um, in, in, the, 40s, um, uh, once, Uh, very, big difference, Um, so, this, was, uh, um, much more, volatile, has, been, way, more, vertical and, it's, been uh, man-made, not, out, of, not, out, of necessity, Um, very, fast, and, and, it

usually, it's, something, with, these, kind of, moves, is, they, tend, to, be, very, fast It's, and, by, the, time, people, get, bearish um, you're, usually, too, late, That's, that's why, most, people, should, not, be, trading because, by, the, time, they, get, bearish it's, too, late, uh, which, brings, me something, uh, um, that, I've, been, seeing, uh but, let's, talk, about, it, later, The, the complacency, I've, seen, in, in, in, crypto but, anyway, that's, 22, Uh, 2020, was, also very, different, Uh, but, in, in, in, the, other direction, 2020, the, bigs, got, to, all, the way, to, up, to, 80, and, we, basically, had um, we, had, two, full, weeks, of, what, we, just experienced, today, So, we, had, two, full

weeks, in, 2020, of, of, the, bigs, uh, um, above above, uh, 40 Um, now, that, being, said, even, 2020, was, not it, was, equally, vertical, but, you, had, a lot, of, uh, backtracking, like, it, was, down up, down, up, down, up, It, was, very, chaotic This, was, just, down, easy, painful, [ __ ], you Trump, is, in, control, New, world, order, And uh, and, you're, just, waiting, for, basically everybody, to, to, to, to, give, up, or, or headlines, to, come in, Um, what, I've, been, doing, is, I', I've been, I've, been, short, the, market, from

Wednesday, um, liberation, day, till, uh, uh this, morning, uh, after, the, close, And, um, I I, think, we're, due, for, a, bounce, here, Um how, big, the, bounce, I, don't, know, The problem, is, is, very, difficult, because, is is, headlines, driven, and um, Trump, and, Europe, can, can, send everything, to, you know, Yeah, it's, it's, uh, people, are looking, for, certainty, There's, no, way, to be, certain, here, It's, like, I, agree, with what, James, you, you, were, saying, before It's, like long-term long-term, this, is, a, great, place, to, buy anything, But, we, don't, really, know, if, we

are, we, are, witnessing, a, a, 2020, kind, of move, that, reverses, in, one, month, or, we're seeing, a, 2022, kind, of, move, that, reverses in, 8, months, 8, n, months, or, we're, seeing, a 20, 2008, 2008, kind, of, move, that, reverses in, years, We, don't, really, know unfortunately, Pass, it, on, guys, Sorry, that was, too, long, I'll, say, real, quick, look, I think, the, dealers, had, a, lot, of, fun speaking, this, Monday, Markets, opened, up down, four, points, went, trough, to, peak, up 10%, 10%, finished, flat, Dealers, love, days like, this, Market, makers, deal, everyone confirmation, bias, get, a, lot, of transaction, volume, and, you'd, finish nowhere, So, just, one, observation, dealers are, going, to, do, well, here, Um, you, know

zooming, out, I'd, say, this, like, coming, out of, Wednesday, on, Liberation, Day, you, know I, noted, that, the, probability, that, we're in, a, bare, market, has, increased substantially, Uh, I, remain, of, that, view today, It's, even, higher, than, it, was, back then, However, as, of, this, morning, we're confronted, with, this, paradox, of, on, the one, hand, tactically, extremely, oversold capitulary, conditions, which, James referenced, earlier, on, the, one, hand, which means, you're, supposed, to, buy, On, the other, hand, you're, also, faced, with, the prospect, of, declining, earnings, growth across, all, markets, and, elevated inflation, and, cost, pressures, and, an uprooting, of, supply, chains, and, declining CEO, and, consumer, confidence, which, are

all, pulling, in, And, so, that, means, stock prices, are, overrated, relative, where, they should, be, given, this, policy, molotov cocktail, that's, coming, in, At, the, same time, you've, got, an, administration, that's digging, in, their, heels, They're, not relenting, Uh, they, want, to, quote, reorder global, trade, Uh, and, they, haven't, learned the, lessons, of, history, with, Smukalli Didn't, really, work, out, well, there, Uh they're, not, listening, to, corporate executives, and, small, business, people Nike, has, 500,000, employees, in, Vietnam They, moved, that, production, from, China, to Vietnam, Their, tariffs, actually, went higher, and, they've, got, 100, plants, and they're, delivering, a, lowcost, high-

quality, product, to, American, consumer, and doing, right, by, their shareholders, Where's, the, win, there's, no win, here, There's, no, win, for, Nike, There's no, win, for, an, American, consumer, There's no, win, for, a, shareholder, There's, no, win for, American, taxpayers, There's, no, win And, that, Nike, story, can, be, told, a million, times, over, Small, businesses There's, there's, a, small, business, that imports, hockey, sticks, from, Vietnam, at $30, Tariffs, make, the, price, unsellable, So they, have, to, shut, down, That, means, they lay, off, American, workers, and, not, pay taxes, Those, workers, will, go, on, the unemployment, rules, So, deficits, will actually, go, up, So, this, is, Fafo, This, is called, Fafo, stuff, guys, It's, FAFO, tariffs You're, seeing, disscent, in, the, White House, Elon, is, pushing, back, on, Twitter, Uh

smartest, people, in, the, White, House, are pushing, back, That's, good, But, Trump, Trump is, digging, in, to, his, heels, So, I, think you're, in, a, bare market, Tactically, um, yes, it's, all, about tactics, and, headline, risk, And, the, number one, thing, you, want, to, know, is, will, Trump stop, tariffs, if, so, markets, go, up, 7%, And you, know, bare, market's over, But, if, you, stay, the, course, then you're, set, up, for, uh, bare, market, And that, is, the, detention, you, know, you're relying, on, what, does, Trump, say, any, given moment, and, pulling, on, that, Ram, totally agree, with, you, bare, market, but, bare

markets, can, be, priced, in, so, again, that could, make, on, the, one, hand, this, a, good moment, to, buy, I'm, more, concerned, about what's, not, priced, in, and, I, don't, think the, inflation, that's, coming, is, priced, in especially, if, you're, going, by, the, swaps pricing, for, interest, rate, cuts, for instance, I, don't, when, we, start, to actually, we, know, that, the, expectations are, there, for, the, consumer, survey, that soft, data, The, hard, data, is, what, I, think will, spook, uh, the, next, leg, down, The, hard data, from, unemployment, as, well, as, that starts, to, kick, up, as, you, know, suppliers just, simply, can't, can't, import, what, they need, so, they, close, down, It's, not, even just, the, tariffs, that, is, going, to, be moving, the, inflation, needle, It's, the currency, The, dollar, is, down, and, that

adds, even, more, onto, the, cost, of, any imports, And, contrary, to, what, the administration, Navaro, Trump, are, saying you, cannot, replace, everything, that you've, imported, with, domestic, production The, US, cannot, for, instance, grow, coffee at, scale, And, so, he, said, how, how, happy are, people, going, to, be, when, their, coffee is, suddenly, 80%, more, expensive, You, can't grow, bananas, You, can't, grow, avocados There's, a, lot, that, you, simply, cannot reproduce, at, scale, in, the, US, And, this, is even, before, we, get, into, the, Nike, example that, you, were reciting, RAM, which, is, just they, they, they, manufacture, in, Vietnam because, it's, cheaper, to, manufacture, in Vietnam, They're, not, going to, be replicating, Vietnamese, wages, in, the factories, that, they, build, in, the, US, So it's, the, hard, data, that, I'm, more

concerned, about, and, that's, not, priced, in there, I'd, add, to, your, point, you, can't even, manufacture, DN's, got, 500,000 workers, just, on, Nike, You, don't, have, that many, workers, to, manufacture, in, the, US and, Lutnik, had, the, zany, ideas, that, you have, robots, build, Nike, sneakers, This, is nonsense, Robots, are, just, learning, how, to handle, eggs, They, can't, do, fine handiccraft, stitch, work, much, less, find an, American, worker, that's, going, to, take a, subminimum, wage, job, under, a, hot ceiling, fan, and, try, to, persuade, the Vietnamese, Vietnamese, to, switch, their dining, and, cuisine, from, noodles, to expensive, American, beef, to, close, a, trade deficit, It, doesn't, make, any, sense, I think, you, brought, up, a, great, question, of is, this, pricing, i'd, say, no, In, a recession, the, 10ear, should, reflect, the

expected, nominal, growth, expectations, and it's, still, elevated, Number, one, certain sectors, are, very, close, to, pricing, in, a recession, C, certain, tech, stocks, in, the MAG, 3, kind, of, zone, and, area, but, the median, valuations, are, still, more expensive, relative, to, what, you, saw, in 2022, Tech, declined, the, most, so, it's closest, to, pricing, and, recession, but other, categories, have, not, Financials, are still, expensive, The, real, estate, sector is, still, expensive, The, energy, complex, is rolling, over, as, oil, starts, to, shift towards, recession, Uh, so, we, haven't, seen that, priced, in, and, people, are, not positioned, for, a, recession, That's, why

we've, had, three, of, these, gap, downs, and why, I, expect, institutions, will, will, sell rallies, unless, we, see, a, change, in course, You, know, I, want, to, say um, uh, my, my, base, case, scenario, right, now um, it's, not, that, really, dominant, and also, this, is, not, a, prediction, This, is not, I'm, not, going, to, take, credit, for, for this, happening, I, don't, want, to, if, that happens, It's, just, about, how, I'm, thinking about, the, market, and, how, I'm, I'm thinking, about, positioning, myself, It makes, sense, to, see, a, strong, rally, may have, started, today, It, may, be, during, the week, I, am, expecting, now, a, strong, rally across, risk, assets, uh, including, crypto

Um, but, uh, that, being, said, I, think, that there, is, a, very, high, probability, that, we see, some, sort, of, mini, 2008 uh, where, basically, what, we, are, are seeing, right, now, is, a, replay, of, October 2008, For, for, for, those, who, who, were, not I, mean, for, some, people, this, is, ancient history, 2008, was, basically, we, had, a, a very, down, a, strong, down, year, but, it, was like, a, slow, demolition, Um, and, then, uh, in on, September, 15th, we, had, leave, and, fail Then, there, was, talks, of, uh TARP, um, the, troubled, asset, relief program, 700, billion, for, basically

rescuing, the, financial, system And, on, uh, on, at, the, end, of, September right, at, the, end, the Congress, rejects, TARP, and, unleashes, uh, a insane, vertical, move, which, is, very similar, to, what, we, are, seeing, right, now Uh, we, may, be, at, the, end, of, the, move, I hope, so, That's, that's, what, I, was, saying I, think, it's, a, good, time, for, a, for, a tactical, bounce, But, my, fear, and, my, what I'm, thinking, of, is, this, is, uh, we, bounce and, then, we, have, as, as, it's, kind, of, like in, line, with, what, you, were, saying, that that, the, the, real, economy, going, to, [ __ ] is, not, priced, in, So, that's, that's, when you, get, like, you, don't, get, this, V, then

you, start, getting, like, this, drip, lower as, 2008, you, got, job, losses, but, the, many 2008's, right, on, the, mark, In, fact, we spent, this, weekend, looking, at, 08, all over, again, And, the, driver, of, rallies, was policy, response, of, which, you, named several, naming Gener Gener, Uh, and, there, was, those, were, one hit, wonder, rallies, by, the, way, and, they rolled, over, But, this, is, pretty, serious stuff, right, earnings, is, going, down inflation, is, going, up, Inflation, is, more toxic, to, asset, prices, than, even, interest rates, and, earnings, guys So, it's, a, bad, bad, cocktail especially, especially, if, the, Fed's, hands are, tied, when, it, comes, to, interest, rates

I, mean, if, inflation, is, threatening, to come, back, they, just, can't, cut, rates, as they, have, been, saying, until, they're, blue in, the, face, And, yet, the, market, isn't listening, Yeah, the, non-farm, payrolls report, last, week, was, extremely, strong and, like, that, shows, the, economy, is, maybe not, as, weak, as, they, thought, for, cutting But, I, just, wanted, to, say, going, back, to something, that, Alex, was, talking, about with, this, being, a, headline, driven, market I, mean, this, morning, we, had, a, bogus report, out, of, benzinga, that, basically said, that, Trump, was, going, to, pause, the tariffs, for, 90, days, which, was, not, true and, it, was, like, markets, were, way, down and, the, S&P, rallied, like, 6%, in, a, like, 20 minutes, So, like, the, market, is, like looking, for, some, sort, of, relief, to, say like, this, idea, that, we're, going, to, go

into, this, real, type, of, recession, we're talking, about, is, out, there, So, I, would say, the, risk, is, like, something, like, that happens, where, Trump, actually, does, pause or, you, he, comes, out, and, starts, saying he's, making, a, bunch, of, deals, with, all these, countries, like, watch, out, this thing, is, going, to, go, vertical, in, the opposite, direction, now, whether, or, not, it is, like, going, to, be, sustained, movement in, the, opposite, direction, like, Alex, was talking, about, it, could, be, just, a, bounce um, that, is, like, a, real, risk, here, if, if Trump, actually, does, something, like, that So, yeah, so, he, had, a, press, conference about, an, hour, ago, I'll, be, really, brief He, had, a, press, conference, an, hour, ago where, he, said, we, can, have, permanent tariffs, and, permanent, negotiations Yeah, We're, in, early, innings, of, working out, these, deals, and, negotiations

I, was, just, going, to, say, like, you, talked about, thou, you, talked, about, 2008, like, I looked, at, I, talked, about, all, those, like these, warning, sirens, going, off, all, these things, going, off, When, they, go, off, at, the same, time, it's, typically, like, I, said like, it's, usually, a, good, time, to, buy, If you, look, at, the, taber, tantrum, in, 2011 flash, grass, volmageddon, which, was, when the, VIX, everything, blew, up, even, the COVID, pandemic, um, uh, the, Bank, of, Japan and, Fed, mess, that, happened, in, August, of this, year, when, these, things, kind, of start, flagging, off, on, my, radars, it's usually, like, even, a, one, month, three month, six, month, forward, return, it's really, good, But, you, go, back, to, the, great financial, crisis, and, all, those, things went, off, after, being, down, like, 10, 15% and, then, we, went, down, another, 34%, from

there, So, like, the, real, risk, is, kind, of what, you, were, talking, about, like, the like, we, could, still, go, way, down, from here, if, these, tariffs, are, actually instituted, as, they, as, they, are, said, to do, And, then, also, the, other, example, is 2022, We, had, all, this, [ __ ], go, off, in, in January, of, 2022, and, as, Alex, was, talking about, the, Fed, kept, hiking, rates, growth was, not, doing, well, Um, basically, you, had bonds, and, equities, selling, off, together and, we, had, six, months, later, we, were still, down, 10%, Uh, so, that, just, continued So, like, those, are, the, types, of, like worst, case, scenarios, from, where, we, are Yes, Most, of, the, time, this, types, of, stuff this, signs, a, capitulation, good, time, to buy, But, like, there, are, plenty, of, times and, examples, in, history, namely, 2022, and 2008, where, you, did, not, want, to, be, buying

at, that, moment, Two, differences, One, is, do you, think, Buffett's, buying, now, i'd, say no, He's, not, No, he's, not, buying, now, So, I I, point, Buffett, out, to, say, that, there are, large, pools, of, capital, We, call, them real, money, buyers, They're, not, buying, now Okay, So, there's, a, conflict, between, the trader, view, and, the, investor, view, And both, are, right, actually, like, this, is, a traders, market, now, The, horizons, are coming, in, more, locally, You, just, had, a five, to, six, point, rally, on, a, Monday, that finished, flat, So, you, had, the, rally, that Alex, talked, about, and, it's, going, to, mess people, up, because, they, say, "Oh, the market's, fine.", No, no, no, You, actually just, had, a, rally, Markets, are, actually technically, overbought, now, If, we, had, a rally, tomorrow, I, would, actually derisk, So, you, know, that's, what's

happening You, know, the, real, money, buyers, will, step in, when, the, 4P, and, the, S&P, is, around, 17 times, based, on, the, work, that, we've, done That, puts, the, market, priced, in, for, a recession, and, a, historical valuations, That, puts, the, S&P, at, a, 4500 level, I'm, not, saying, it'll, go, there Again, if, Trump, pivots, then, you're, right We, get, a, rally, We're, off, to, the, races But, if, he, stays, the, course, then, that, is the, destination, So, the, most, valuable website, in, the, world, is, trumpwatch.com, I don't, know if, that, exists, but, it, would get, millions, of, views, if, it, did, That that, 4500, level, also, um, that, was, the peak, at, the, end, of, 2021, and, it, was resistance, in, 2023, before, we, went, down

and, started, going, back, up, towards, the end, of, 2033, So, there's, also, technical support, down, at, that, level, So, just throwing, that, out, there, as, uh, my, two cents, looking, at, this, in, 2022, and, 2020 In, 2022, and, 2008, policy, was, trying, to solve, problems, That's, a, big, difference between, today, and, those, two eras, You, could, bet, on, policy, intervening through, stimulus, through, QE, through liqufying, the, the, high, yield, market which, you, did, in, 2008, or, through, Taliff and, TARP, in, 2008, or, or, during, COVID, We don't, have, that, now, So, I, think, there's, a mistake, to, say, hey, look, capitulation things, triggered, There's, a, tactical, buy

there, Yes, But, it's, not, an, intermediate bounce, setup I, think, it's, a, sell, the, rally, setup, Yeah I, agree, And, per, to, your, comment, about, it not, being, I, mean, this, being, policydriven rather, than, policy, trying, to, help, here It's, um, also, different, in, that, we, have competing, interests, You, have, China, and Japan, maybe, threatening, to, sell treasuries, and, that, is, again, provoking even, more, of, the, crisis, rather, than stepping, in, and, stemming, it, Europe, are going, to, be, doing, their, own, thing Everyone, is, using, the, markets, to, try, and win, here, rather, than, try, and, stop, the

damage, We're, retaliation, just, is starting, now, right, china, said, "We're going, to, slap, a, tariff, package, on, the US.", The, European, Commission, came, out proposing, a, tariff, padrick, package, on the, US, They, struck, a, deal, with, Argentina which, doesn't, matter, I, love, Argentina Alex, so, no, disrespect, there, Argentina Argentina, is, irrelevant, You, see, all these, these, Republicans, getting, excited about, everybody, flying, to, Mara, Lago, and it's, like, sorry, guys, Argentina, is irrelevant, Uh, who, else, uh, uh, Singapore is, is, irrelevant, It's, a, nice, country great great, country, but, it's, irrelevant It's, all, the, only, Europe, and, China matter, and, then, maybe, uh, Japan, Mexico trading, largest, trading, partners, Yeah

You, know, Trump, really, believes, that, one United, States, has, been, ripped, off, by countries, for, decades, uh, while, American real, incomes, and, GDP, has, outpaced, the world, including, Europe, since, the, post World, War, II, Um, and, he, believes, that, he believes, that, in, imposing, tariffs, we're charging, them, That's, the, language, he uses, I, think, if, you, say, things, enough times, you, start, to, believe, it, And, he believes, that, And, it's, a, corporate, sales tax, And, it's, the, largest, corporate, sales tax, hike, in, American, history, where there's, not, even, a, grace, period, for compliance, You, can't, adjust, supply chains, It's, as, if, McKenzie, had, a PowerPoint, slide, and, they, just, drag, the arrow, of, the, supply, chain, from, the, right

and, to, the, left, and, say, "Voila, we're going, to, have, advanced, robotics, Done, I solved, it.", It's, a, technocratic, top-down fallacy, that, you, typically, see, from, the far, left, like, AOC, where, they're, trying to, will, things, to, existence, like, EV charging, networks, overnight, We, couldn't even, do, that, We, blew, how, many, billions of, dollars, saying, we're, going, to, create these, EV, charging, networks, and, create driverless, cars, everywhere, And, now you're, trying, to, move, the, reorder, to, the global, supply, chain, and, move, the, United States, from, the, front, of, line, as, the consumer, to, the, back, of, the, line, as, an exportdriven, economy, Meanwhile, China's, a mess, because, they're, powered, by, exports The, United, States, in, the, Great Depression, was, exportled, And, we, were devastated, by, Smoot, Holly, And, all, of

this, really, makes, no, sense, because, if you're, the, dollar, reserve, currency, guess what, you, get, trade, deficits, because, the world's, going, to, finance, your, growth, And it's, a, great, privilege, to, be, in, that position, You, get, to, call, the, shots, You get, sanctions, authority, People, have, to buy, your, bonds, They, get, to, finance American, investment, Hi, it's, Matt, Hogan CIO, of, Bitwise, Every, week, I, write, a five-minute, memo, on, the, biggest, stories impacting, crypto, This, week, of, course, I tackle, Trump's, tariff, gambit, and, what, it means, for, Bitcoin, both, short, and, long term, I, think, it's, one, of the, most important, and, impactful, memos, I've written, this, year, Check, it, out, at bitweisinvestments.com/cio, memo, That's

bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo carefully, consider, the, extreme, risks associated, with, crypto, before, investing Let's, talk, a, little, bit, because, Alex wasn't, here, for, our, live, recording, when we, got, into, the, tariff, announcement, And I, wish, like, I, wish, I, knew, things, then that, I, know, now, like, the, more, diving, in like, when, we, were, looking, at, we're, like how, are, they, calculating, these, numbers these, numbers, seem, insane, And, now, we know, that, the, way, they, calculated, was absolutely, nonsense, No, no, no, The, the word, is, nonsense, Is, disrespectful nonsense It's, like, it's, like, it's, like, they coming, to, you, and, saying "Look, the, sky, has, been, red, in, the, last 100, years.", You're, like, "Well, no.", Well

yes, And, if, they, repeat, it, a, million times, and, then, basically, 50%, of, their supporters, believe, it, the, other, 50, don't And, they, believe, it, And, uh, and, how, can you, negotiate, about, the, sky, with, your partner, if, your, partner, says, "But, but it's, blue.", No, it's, red, We, tariff, the penguin, So, it's, a, fundamental, problem Straight, out, of, straight, out, of, 1984, If we're, if, the, government, says, 2, plus, two is, five, then, it's, five, That's, I, I, had the, 2, plus, 2, equals, 5, exactly, in, my, head this, morning, I, agree, It's, like, if, you insist, it, and, say, it, a, thousand, times and, people, believe, it, I, mean, why, are, we tariffing, Penguin, Island, isn't, that, even true, there, there, is, a, hilarious, answer for, that, Lutnik, actually, answered, that The, journalist, asked, him, point, blank, and

the, the, reason, is, so, that, there, this particular, island, is, not, used, as, a loophole, to, divert, shipments, from, China to, this, little, island, and, then, into, the United, States, as, if, that, would, happen, I would, so, like, the, the, the, the, formula they, used, also, one, let's, talk, about, the fact, that, we, were, saying, using, trade deficits, as, a, reason, for, tariffs, and trade, imbalances, well, are, only, because the, other, countries, are, playing, unfair and, using, tariffs, is, nonsense, when, we're the, world, reserve, currency, We, don't, need to, get, into, that, But, also, the, fact, that like, a, bunch, of, people, have, come, out, and said, they, use, the, formula, wrong, like they, use, like, one, of, the, multipliers that, you're, supposed, to, use, that, is basically, determines, the, elasticity, or in, inelasticity, of, imports, and, demand

like, they, used, the, wrong, one, So, like they, also, inflated, the, numbers, that, they should, have, used, if, they, actually followed, the, textbook, numbers, The, other thing, I, wanted, to, say, is, when, we, were watching, it, initially, the, market, kind, of went, up, when, Trump, said, it, was, just going, to, be, a, 10%, floor, and, we, were going, to, do, reciprocal, tariffs, and, then when, people, realized, that, these, were, not reciprocal, tariffs, like, if, we, were actually, going, out, and, saying, Australia has, or, whoever, has, like, uh, tariffs, on, us sending, them, beef, or, like, whatever, we're going, to, tariff, them, on, the, same, thing and, we're, going, to, equivalent, I, think the, markets, would, have, been, like, okay this, is, like, not, great, for, growth, but like, this, is, fine, But, this, nonsense about, the, trade, deficit, calculation, the way, they, used, it, I, mean, people, out, there

are, going, to, argue, he's, just, using, it for, negotiating, stance, it, doesn't, really seem, like, it, Maybe, it, maybe, it, will, be at, some, point, but, obviously, it's, not really, good, for, for, growth, But, again like, markets, responded, positively, to like, the, idea, of, 10%, and, reciprocal tariffs, and, then, what, we, got, was, not, at all, recip, like, I, don't, know, anyone, who knows, anything, about, economics, that would, say, what, we're, doing, is, reciprocal tariffs, Now, I, want, to, say, something, on the, on, that, elasticity, thing, there, on the, formula, This, is, very, important, That formula, basically, is, is, trade, trade trade, deficit, means, they're, saying, is sorry, let's, not, let's, not, get, into, the formula, you, already, covered, in, the, other episode, Let's, go, into, the, elasticity thing, Uh, what, they, are, saying, in, with that, formula, on, the, elasticity, side, of

things, is, that, they're, literally, saying with math, that, they, believe that, the, uh, the, the the, the, increase, in basically, the, cost, of, tariffs, is, is fully, absorbed, by, foreigners, That's, what they, are, saying, That's, exactly, what they're, saying, They're, actually, they've been, saying, that, we, we've, seen, Bessant also, say, this, not, fully, but, he's, he's saying, that, the, foreigners, going, to absorb, most, of, it, but, then, you, look, at their, formula, and, the, formula, says ineally, whatever, you, say, that, is, that the, u, that, that, is, is, fully, absorbed, by foreigners, again, yeah, 95%, we, know, for, a

fact, we, know, for, a, fact, that, that, is, not the, case, there's, like, in, very, extensive empirical, evidence, like, really, extensive We, have, decades, of, this, This, is, not, oh economist, don't, know, what, they're talking, about, No, no, no, This, is, this, is very, simple, It's, like, measuring, boats You, know, you, go, and, you, measure, the boats, and, you, count, the, boats, So, uh historically, it's, it's, just, just, quickly the, number, historically, is, is, uh basically 60, 60, to 100%, of, tariffs, is, passed, on, to, the local

consumer, 60, to8, in, the, short, term, in terms, of, who, pays, in, terms, of, who, pays 100%, American, in, terms, of, the, incidence of, tariffs, that's, what, you're, sorry, to to, to, import, prices, not, to, consumers, and which, means, basically, it, hits, corporates and, then, corporates, decide, what percentage, of, that, they, pass, on, to consumers, or, not, which, is, also, very large, So, foreigners, actually, do, get, hit Yeah, they, they, do, get, hit, definitely, but they, take, a, small, hit, in, relative, terms and, and, the, problem, with, this, and, and then, I, pass, it, on, is, that, the, problem with, is, that, they, tell, you, that, they believe, in, an, alternative, real alternative, reality, That's, the, problem It's, very, hard, to, negotiate, with, someone

who, believes, in, a, parallel, universe Well, well, said, 2, plus, 2, equals, 5, That's what, it, is, Also, they, the, blanket, tariffs 10%, tariffs, on, everybody, except, Russia Bellarus, um, 10%, tariffs, on, everybody means, that, 10%, that, imports, are, going, to cost, 10%, more, minimum, because, let's, say you, have, uh, Maitius, a, very, fancy, you know, a, very, high, quality, lowcost, widget producer, the, United, States, is, importing from, Maitius, 10%, extra, they, they, can either, not, import, from, Maitius, anymore but, where, else, are, they, going, to, import from, they, don't, make, them, domestically it's, going, to, cost, 10%, more, whatever they, do, because, of, the, blanket, nature, of these, tariffs, you, want, tariffs, to, be

useful, in, bringing, down, costs, You, don't make, them, uniform, and, universal What, does, Besson, do, in, this, situation you, know, Besson, was, out, of, the, loop, He was, asked, very, basic, questions, around why, Mexican, Canada, in, the, reciprocalist He, didn't, have, any, clear, answers, He actually, said, "I, don't, know.", Which, I thought, was, you, know, hats, off, to, his honesty, there, He's, he's, out, there, saying "This, is, a, tariff, thing, You, tariff, us we'll, tariff, you.", And, yet, Navaro, Trump Lutnik, are, saying, something, totally different And, and, Trump's, not, inspiring, confidence He, he, had, a, message, which, was, don't, be weak, today, Don't, be, weak, Yeah, That's, not the, message, you're, supposed, to share, This, is, not, the, right, message, Yeah

He, also, said, on, the, airplane, that, we're not, stopping, until, all, trade, deficits are, zero, We, don't, want, a, trade, deficit with, anyone, which, again, is, just, bat, It's batshit, crazy, It's, It's, not mathematically, possible, It's, batshit crazy, Gravity, has, like, a, things, float, in the, air, It's, just, not, mathematically possible, This, could, bring, us, to, what happens, next, and, again, this, is, so totally, crazy, and, I'm, an, optimist, as I've, said, and, I, like, to, think, that, there is, some, intelligence, behind, this, What, if this, yeah, this, is, batshit, crazy, and, they do, believe, what, they're, saying, but bigger, picture, what's, the, negotiating tool, I, mean, obviously, he's, not, going, to get, what, he, wants, he's, not, going, to, get

all, deficit, down, to, zero, because, that the, only, way, to, get, that, would, be, for the, United, States, dollar, to, no, longer, be the, reserve, currency, and, he's, made, that clear, that's, not, what, he's, looking, is, he looking, for, a, big, reset, here, is, this case, where, 6, months, from, now, he, calls all, of, the, major, leaders, to, Mara, Lago and, gives, them, the, new, deal, which includes, includes, the, 100red-year, zero coupon, bonds, and, it, includes, agreeing, to bring, the, dollar, down, gradually, Is, that possible, in, your, opinion, trump, likes bilateral, deals, He, doesn't, like consortium, trade, agreements, He's, pulled out, of, that, Uh, he, views, uh, life, as, a series, of, transactions, with, another party uh, he, about, an, hour, ago, he, was, saying that, uh, Netanyahu, from, Israel, is, coming

in, with, a, proposal, to, lower, tariffs, and some, other, value, which, he, did, not specify, So, what, Trump, is, doing, is, he's shaking, the, tree, vigorously, and, waiting to, see, what, apples, will, drop, as, opposed to, saying, you, know, here, are, my, standards for, compliance, or, here's, my, ask, to conclude, a, deal, because, the, main, of, what he, wants, is, to, reorder, global, trade, and bring, manufacturing, to, the, US, and, have robots, magically, appear, and, do, all, this stuff But, he's, saying, "Look, I'm, open, to, an opportunity, if, you, want, to, present something, I, haven't, thought, of, before."

And, he, said, that, when, Netanyahu presented, that, they, offered, value, that they, had, not, anticipated, He, wasn't, clear on, what, that, means, Was, that, intelligence i, don't, know, Help, with, Iran, Maybe, maybe that, Yeah, maybe, that, And, by, the, way, the other, part, that, came, up, in, the, in, his press, conference, today, he, said uh, Iran, cannot, have, a, nuclear, weapon They, said, you, know, would, you, rule, out military, force, he, just, said, look, Iran can, I, have, a, nuclear, weapon, and, we're having, conversations, at, very, high, level with, them, So, you, have, geopolitical, risk in, the, background, If, you're, going, to clean, up, house, you, do, it, all, now, You, do it, now, You, do, it, in, year, one, Isn't, that what, we're, seeing, here yeah, The, midterms, He, wouldn't, be, doing this, if, we, were, closer, to, midterms, I

don't, think, Or, at least, he, wouldn't, have done, it, this, way, I, mean, I, don't, think, he should, have, done, it, this, way, and, no matter, what, but, that's, my, own, personal view, But, I, I, would, bet, you, any, amount, of money, that, this, wouldn't, have, happened if, he, didn't, try, to, do, it, this, early, I mean, this, goes, back, to, part, of, the, other thing, like, one, of, the, proponents, of, this people, saying, the, tariffs, are, a, good idea, I, mean, maybe, in, the, long, run, after we, settle, everything, and, America, will, be better, off, if, we, really, do, get, trade deals, with, all, these, countries, and, we get, tariff, reliefs, all, these, things, I won't, put, that, out, of, world, but, like, one of, the, things, they, were, like, well they're, getting, what, they, want, They, want the, tenure, down, And, like, on, this, podcast

we, said, many, times, like, Besson, Trump Lutnick, they, were, like, walking, down, risk assets, they, want, to, get, the, 10ear, lower and, it, was, like, the, one, thing, that people, were, touting, was, like, they're finally, getting, the, 10ear, lower, and, like we, went, from, like, 43ish, all, the, way, down to, like, 38, something, 39, almost, and, that is, gone, today, Today, we, rallied, up, to, 4.2 which, like, the, whole, idea, is, like, these tariffs, are, a, tax, It's, going to, raise revenue, then, it's, going, to, they're, going to, try, to, bring, down, the, the, yield, This is, the, best, case, scenario, in, my, mind right, they're, they're, going, to, bring, in a, whole, bunch, of, revenue, from, these tariffs, 10ear, rates, are, going, to, go, down They're, going to, be able, to, refinance, at lower, rates, They're, going, to, bring, in the, deficit, And, like, we're, like, now, none

of, that, is, seeming, to, happen, There's been, 10, trillion, dollars, in, wealth destruction, in, just, the, last, two, days, th Friday, and, Thursday, to, go, for, their stated, goal, of, 600, billion, in, revenue Actual, realistic, goals, 300, billion, in revenue, through, sales, taxes, on, Americans The, juice, isn't, worth, the, squeeze, I, mean we, should, have, done, an, AOC, style, wealth tax, and, seized, people's, asset, holdings like, FDR, did, in, the, Great, Depression with, seizing, gold, to, to, pay, off, the deficit, We'd, all, be, better, off, with, that I'm, not, saying, we, do, that, of, course, I'm just, saying, this, is, like, a, really, kind of, like, a, far-left, concept, that, we, see But, you're, right, You're, right, James, Like the, 10ear's, gone, nowhere, What, how, much does, the, SBF, have, to, drop, to, the, 10, year

the, CIO, of, HSBC, recommended, their clients, today, owning, cash, gold, and European, bonds, Is, where, is, the, United States, in, any, of, that, and, it's, not, even in, the, United, States, it's, not, even, the United, States's, hands, I, mean, again, if some, of, the, trading, partners, realize that, Trump, is, serious, he's, not, willing to, budge, Well, their, weapon, is, their holdings, of, US, treasuries, right, macron said, "We, need, to, curtail, investments, in the, US, We're, going, to, hand, them, less dollars, by, importing, less, by, we're, going to, get, more, expensive, Nike, sneakers, from I, don't, know, where, So, what, likely happens, I, think, other, nations, strike their, own, free, trade, deals, and, gradually over, time, start, to, reduce, their, reliance on, the, US, consumer, That's, the

appropriate, approach, you, should, take It's, actually, what, Trump, wants, That's the, thing, That's, exactly, what, he's telling, us, he, wants He's, uh, severing, the, the, link, between the, US, and, the, rest, of, the, world, That's what's, happening, Is, he, saying, that, is, he I, think, I, think, he, has, contradictory outcomes, from, a, policy, that's, not internally, consistent, But, if, you, pick any, goal, on, its, face, it, sounds, sensible Like, I, don't, point, Yeah, But, by definition, if, you, if, you, want, no, trade deficits, you, will, have, no nobody, It's, the, the, trade, the, trade, the tra, the, the the, balance, of, payments, is

basically, the, exact, opposite, of, the capital, account, If, you, have, no, trade deficits, you, have, no, money, coming, in period, Over, the, weekend, he, was, touting something, like, $6, trillion, in, foreign investments, to, the, US, as, a, as, a, win which, makes, no, sense, to, your, point because, that's, a, capital, account, surplus Also, remains, to, be, seen, how, much, of, that actually, ends, up, happening, right, and, who are, these, companies, you, mentioned, TSMC is, not, running, a, $6, trillion, Yeah, Soft Bank, is, up, there, Yeah, we're, talking, like uh, couple, billion, dollars, to, build, a foundry, We're, talking, uh, maybe, $40 billion, for, Stargate, from, Soft, Bank which, most, of, which, will, go, to, Taiwan

anyway, to, Taiwan, semiconductor, right, so where's, the, $6, trillion, like, who, who's writing, that, check, ram, you, mentioned, the portfolio, reallocation, rotation, into safe, havens, Um, gold, was, in, there, I noticed, Bitcoin, wasn't, It, obviously, is still, too, soon, for, that, to, become, a global, store, of, value, for, those, other than, those, in, the, Black, Rockck, uh, circle But, we, saw, bit, uh, Bitcoin outperform, between, Wednesday, and, Sunday Then, something, happened, on, Sunday, It could, be, Asia, I'm, not, sure, Where, do, you see, that, now, it's, a, really, good, question I'd, say, first, off, there, were, a, number, of

safe, haven, trades, that, were, working, over the, last, few, weeks, One, was, the, stock, of Berkshire Hathaway, One, was, insurance, companies because, they're, balance, sheet, businesses not, exposed, to, tariffs You, can't, hurt, that, Third, were, staples like, the, XLP, ETF, and, its, beneficiaries like, Costco, Even, though, it, has, 50, times earnings, it's, one, of the, top, weights that, benefit, from, the, flows, Fourth, was the, gold, miner, trade, Guess, what, friday they, all, broke, down, Costco's, below, the 200, day, moving, average, Even, the, 10-year went, up, today, I, interpret, that, as, you know, a, riskoff, signal, and, a, you, know you're, going, to, have, a, capitulatory event, which, arguably, we, had, this morning, So, you, know, the, preponderance, of

evidence, is, that, you're, seeing breakdowns, isn't, it, so, one, way, to interpret, to, say, gee, when, markets, rip Bitcoin, can, get, going, which, I, agree, with That's, that's, true, like, if, if, you, relax policy, and, get, back, to, a, rational, kind of, footing, that's, that's, pretty interesting, for, anything, that, in, there but, you, know, without, that, with, with, the current, set, of, policies, I, think, it's like, an, acid, on, risk, assets, it, just, kind of, breaks, things, down, and, the, reason, why is, because, people, use, finance, team, to express, positions, someone, that, owns Bitcoin, probably, owns, Tesla, stock, or uranium, stock, and, if, you're, getting liquidated, somewhere, else, you've, got, to fund, it, with, whatever's, working, so

correlations, rise, to, one, Yeah, I, mean, the Bitcoin, thing, is, weird, I, mean, I, would everyone, in, their, mother, was, talking about, it, on, Twitter, like, the, potential decoupling, And, it, it, was, kind, of, eerie like, even, gold, was, down, at, points, when Bitcoin, was, up, I, mean, if, you, I, mean, I I'll, add, this, back, to, the, stage, The green, line, at, the, bottom, is, IBIT, I, mean it, was, great, It, it, held, up, pretty, damn strong, until, literally, Sunday, yesterday when, we're, when, we're, talking, about, this right, so, um, everyone, was, like, well, this is, either, going, to, be, they're, front running, what's, coming, on, Monday, or, it's catching, up, to, what, happened, last, week And, I, thought, like, last, week, it, was, held up, by, you, know, I, don't, know, GameStop Michael, Sailor, Marathon, buying, Bitcoin in, the, open, markets, but, we, now, know, that

really, wasn't, the, case, So, it's, just weird, Like, it's, just, one, of, those, weird things, that, that, didn't, happen, I, don't know, I, don't, know if, you, have, any thoughts, Alex, on, why, Bitcoin, stalled, as somebody, who's, constantly, actively trading, I'm, also, curious, to, hear, why, you think, the, the, Treasury, the, 10, years, has spiked, so, much, today, I'm, I'm, curious, to hear, your, reasoning, or, or, thinking, there on, both, those, on, on, on Bitcoin, I, I, think, we, did, see, safe, haven and, flows, Okay, uh, and, and, in, fact, I, I would, I, would, say, that, uh, we, had, been seeing, basically, uh, US, is, over oversimplification, over, generalization but, we've, been, saying, America, US, sell bitcoin, and, uh, Asia, buy, bitcoin, so, like us, uh, treating, bitcoin, as, a, as, a, risk, on

risk, uh, uh, risk, on, asset, and, um, Asia, as a, safe, haven, asset Um, that, being, said, it's, it's, just because, you, see, it, in, one, day, that doesn't, change, the, fact that, when, markets, are, breaking, they're just, breaking, You, you, just, don't, take positions, fundamentally, on, what, makes sense, Uh, you, you, know, that, just, it, can break, any, minute, It's, uh, as, as, Rambo, was saying, is, uh, even, gold, was, down, today, uh silver, actually, for, example, like sometimes, things, just, don't, make, sense because, they're, not, driven, by, by, logic

they're, driven, by, flow, Somebody's blowing, up, Somebody, has, to, put, a, trade Somebody, needs, to, get, the, [ __ ], out, of, a position, Uh, silver, following, uh, a liberation, day, Uh, Liberace, day, it, was, uh basically, it, went, down 10%, Uh, and, it, went, down, 10%, again, in, in the, in, the, days, uh, following, it, finally rallied, today, uh, overnight, after, being down, 3%, again, So, the, point, is, things don't, have, to, make, sense, It's, you, take, a step, back, and, say, okay, need, let's, wait to, see, where, things settle Um, I, I, think, and, I, want, to, hope, and, it's like, I'm, biased, here, I'm, in, crypto, right um, that, that, Bitcoin, is, going, to, do, well

eventually, out, of, this, uh, because, you people, needs, to, put, their, assets somewhere, and, uh, if, the, US, is, is, not, the place, where, you, want, to, put, your, assets and, um, and, say, okay, so, the, HSBC, chairman or, CEO, he, recommended, basically, you, said James, he, said, uh, gold, boons, and, uh, cash right, gold, bonds, cash, eur, European, bonds by, the, way, European, bonds, um, well, I, I, be concerned, about, being, long, uh, European specifically, boons, uh, not, not, European um, because, of, uh, Germany's, uh, fiscal policy, So, I, I'd, be, concerned, about, that

Uh, and, uh, but, then, you, go, to, the, US, and uh, do, you, want, to, belong, the, dollar, well I, don't, want, to, belong, the, dollar, uh, not in, an, environment, where, actually, you have, an administration, literally, driven, driving the, rest, of, the, world, to, stop, investing in, the, US, because, that's, what's happening, contrary, to, what, he's, saying Yeah, you, may, have, some, guys, here, and there, for, the, anecdote, of, how, they're building, some, factories, here, and, there but, money, is, actually, ceasing, to, flow And, that's, why, we're, seeing, bonds, down is, people, are, dumping, treasury, bonds, And maybe, China, too, Maybe, China, China, we just, inflicted, retalatory, tariffs, on

their, retaliatory, tariffs, on, our, tariffs on, China So, they, said, all, right, here's, our package, and, that, is, going, to, end, trade with, China, I, mean, 105%, that's, just, for starters, is, going, to, keep, going, up, That ends, trade, with, China, We, can't, overlook the, impact, of, stimulus, which, we, know, is coming, from, China, I, mean, they've, pretty much, said, so, and, it, could, come, within the, next, week, or, so, but, many, other governments, UK, Vietnam, Europe, have, said that, they, will, stimulus, is, coming, to help, companies, get, through, this, to, help individuals, get, through, this, and, that, is also, going, to, influence, risk, assets, Not necessarily, the, US, rate, outlook, but, it is, definitely, going, to, influence, risk sentiment, in, other, markets, We, are, now, in band-aid, mode, I'm, counting, three

band-aids, right, now, I, posted, this, a, few hours, ago, Here's, band-aid, number, one We're, going, to, fix, the, automobile industry, by, providing, an, auto, loan, tax deduction, for, the, American, consumer Prices, are, going, up, Okay, like, the band-aid, is, you, get, the, deduction, if, you qualify, for, deductions, Most, Americans don't, Only, 10%, of, Americans, qualify Number, two, we're, going, to, fix, the, trade war, with, a, newly, proposed, quote, export tax, credit, We, don't, know, what, that, is yet, but, so, let's, say, you're, Nike, you, get an, export, tax, credit, to, offset, something something, The, third, they're contemplating, some, kind, of, exemption, for trade, dealing, with, Vietnam, or, some, kind of, deal, there, Right, so, this, is, band-aid

mode, The, patient, is, bleeding, because they, got, a, knife, on, the, neck, the American, economy, And, what, they're, doing is, they, got, an, IV, infusing, them, with blood, over, here, instead, of, just addressing, the, situation, directly, So, and this, is, part, of, face, saving, maneuvers uh, and, trying, to, respond, And, the, issue is, the, people, that, will, be, uh, cared, for are, those, that, have access, because, a, squeaky, wheel, gets addressed, first, How, do, you, get, access well, you, make, a, campaign, contribution, to an, inauguration, bar, all, or, you're, like Mark, Zuckerberg, who, now, has, lobbyed, for this, and, that, I, don't, blame, any, American

CEO, for, doing, that, by, the, way, You, got, to look, after, your, employees, your shareholders, and, your, customers, You, got to, do, that, Uh, but, if, you're, a, small business, you, can't, do, that, You, cannot afford, to, do, that, And, that, sets, up, a dynamic, that, you, see, in, other, countries like, India, where, like, Reliance, and, Tata Motor, have, an, entrenched, position, due, to the, corruption, between, government, and industry, So, whoever, sets, the, policy, gets If, you, know, Howard, Lutnik, you've, got, a golden ticket, Heather's, got, a, golden, ticket Yeah, What's, the, What's, the, word, for, that in, English, there's, a, there's, a, term absolute, power, corrupts, Absolutely, Uh corruption, checks, and

balances, conflict, of, interest fiduciary, duty, right, crony, capitalism Crony, capitalism, That's, it, Yeah Um, I, the, other, thing, that, I, wanted, to point, out, we, kind, of, touched, on, it, I talked, about, the, fact, that, like, one, of the, main, goals, of, this, was, to, drive, down the, tenure, and, one, I, think, it, was, Besson it, might, have, been, Lutnik, but, I, think it was, Besson, talked, about, like, the, dollar will, also, strengthen, on, this, tariff, news which, is, kind, of, typically, what, does happen, the, dollar, like, will, strengthen and, it's, done, the, exact, opposite, So, like they're, like, the, dollar, strengthen, will offset, some, of, these, concerns, and, it's like, nope, the, dollar, has, actually, gone down, And, then, going, back, to, what, we, were talking, about, the, rates, before, our, rate strategist, actually, put, out, a, note basically, saying, this, is, either, people

afraid, of, foreign, foreign, sellers, price insensitive, foreign, sellers, like, China and, others, that, are, going, to, ddollarize in, some, way, or, it's, actually, those foreign, sellers, just, selling, into, a market, without, any, care, in, the, world about, what's, happening, And, like, you, look at, like, what's, going, on, with, the, 2-year 10, year, 30-year, like, you, I, have, a, chart Laura, I, can, look, at, the, bars, of, like, how big, the, changes, were, on, a, daily, basis, I mean, specifically, at, the, 2-year, there's only, been, two, days, that, were, bigger, than we, saw, today, when, SVB, collapsed, and during, 2008, So, we've, seen, a, bigger, range in, two-year, yields, today, than, only there's, only, been, two, other, times, pretty much, going, back, to, like, 2000, that, we've ever, seen, this, happen, So, like, people, are dumping, this, stuff, And, if, you're, dumping and, moving, to, dumping, the, two-year, and

moving, to, cash, I, mean, that's, just, you know, yeah, the, Europeans, are, pulling, back I, talked, to, a, Canadian, friend, He's, like "Look, man, We're, looking, into, like Samsung, and, Nokia, phones, Like, forget Apple, The, Europeans, are, doing, the, same They're, pulling, back, right, like, who's going, to, buy, John, Deere, or, Caterpillar around, the, world?" Yeah, Anybody, got, anything, positive, to say the, medium-term, case, Yeah, the medium-term, case, for, Bitcoin, certainly seems, more, clear, these, days, There'll, be there'll, be, great, deals, at, some, point Yeah, Watching, Yeah, But, also, on, the, on the, crypto, thing, I, mean, it, it, Bitcoin, to

to, choose, that, one, It, will, benefit, apart from, the, flushes, that, could, hurt, it, It will, benefit, from, the, stimulus, It, will also, benefit, from, the, safe, haven, demand So, it, has, the, double, narrative, working in, its, favor, for, a, change I, think, people, need, to, be, very, careful with, that, narrative, that, is, being, pushed around, on, Twitter, about, Bitcoin, going, to 150K, on, stimulus, etc, Uh, it's, it's overperforming, or, or, or, doing, well, on relative, terms, doesn't, mean, that, it's going, to, go, into, a, massive, bull, market, I hope, it, does, but, we, it's, it's, can, be very, risky, betting, on, all, these, safe haven, trades, haven't, worked, folks, Yep that's, very, true, And, risk, risk, sentiment

does, you, know, dampen, enthusiasm, for pretty, much, everything, other, than, the safest, of, assets, which, crypto, certainly isn't, Yeah, People, like, to, talk, about like, the, the, Fed, cutting, and, doing, QE and, like, it's, going, to, be, great, but, like for, the, Fed, to, get, back, like, it's, good when, they're, doing, it, just, for, like, you know, responses, to, market, conditions, that aren't, like, we're, going, into, a, recession Like, a, recession, is, not, going, to, be, good for, anything, that's, considered, a, risk asset, No matter, how, you, slice, it, if everyone's, losing, their, job, they're, not going, to, be, spending, their, money, on, I mean, obviously, some, Bitcoiners, will, but it's, not, going, to, be, something, that, like you, know, people, are, just, out, there normally, buying, We, should, talk, about, the Fed, Fed's, a, good, topic, right, so, so Powell, last, tale, of, last, week, on, Friday

11:00, a.m, gave, a, a, speech, where, it, was not, dovish, He, did, not, make, any indication, that, he, would, respond, to tariffs, He, did, say, that, the, tariffs, were larger, in, size, and, scope, than, initially anticipated, and, likely, like, likely consequences, were, inflation, My expectation, is, hands, are, tie, in, the short, run, wait, for, hard, data, to deteriorate, like, labor, data, and, then aggressively, cut, They're, not, going, to give, Trump, a, pass, on, this, They, can't, At the, same, time, they're, dealing, with heightened, inflation, expectations, from consumers, There's, an, NFIB, uh, small business, uh, survey, that, came, out, around price, prices, paid, expectations, It's, also going, the, wrong direction, So, the, Fed, needs, to, uh, wait until, there's, some, deterioration, and

then, jump, into action, Markets, are, pricing, at, 100, pips and, cuts, now, So, the, Fed, watch, the, the watch, now, for, the, Fed, is, has, adjusted Yeah, So, 50%, cut, off, for May, but, I, don't, see it, Just, just, what, what, Rambo, was, saying is, it's, it's, there's, too, much, The, Fed has, been, telling, us very, repeatedly, over, and, over, again, They they, have, plenty, of, time, to, decide, and they, will, take, their, time, And, here, we have, markets, now, pricing, in, one, cat, 50% odds, uh, in, May, FOMC, in, exactly, a, month and, uh, we, have, what, is, it, uh, two, cuts, by

June, It's, it's, too, much, I, Yeah, I, agree with, like, later, and, and, bigger, if, things go, bad, or, not, Yeah, the, market, is, relying on, the, old, playbook, they, came, in, before they'll, do, it, again, without, realizing that, this, time, the, stage, is, very, very different, And, even, should, we, start, to see, stress, in, treasury, markets, or, should we, start, to, see, banks, teeter, there, are other, things, they, can, do which, is, rare, The, market, is, usually right, It's, this, is, a, very, unique, It's very, unique, for, I'll, poke, you, there, Huh So, markets, got, the, Fed, pivot, wrong, for the, last, two, years, Yeah So, I, I, don't know, I, think, these, Fed, fun

cuts, actually, sign, a, panic, indication, of panic I'm, not, saying, that, these, cuts, won't happen, because, if, they, don't, change course, then, they, need, to, cut right, but, there, is, a, Fed, independent showdown, that's, that's, brewing, because Trump, has, said, the, Fed's, like, to, concur that, they, need, to, cut, while, he, dealt, the Fed, with, a, healthy, dose, of, inflation Yeah, What, do, you, think powell, has, an, ally, in, Bessant, in, that aspect, Bessent, has, spoken, in, public before, about, the, importance, of, an independent, Fed, Is, does, Besson's, voice matter, in, the, Oval, Office i, think, it, does, for, many, things, but, some of, them, it, doesn't, And, there's, no, way

his, voice, mattered, based, on, what, we, saw with, that, tariff, announcement, in, my opinion, Yeah, I, don't, think, so, I, I, don't buy, Besson, actually, believes, in, tariffs He's, just, repeating, the, party, line, I, I, I think, Bess, is, a, very, very, well-informed uh, person, who, truly, understands, markets What, he's, saying, is, the, opposite, So, um, I think, he's, he's, he's, following, orders That's, the, way, I, I, interpret, it, which means, he, has, no, power, I, think, he'd, be fully, on, board, with, reciprocal, tariffs that, were, actually, reciprocal, to, actual tariffs, that, were, out, there, He'd, be, on board, with, that, He, might, even, be, on board, with, some, like, low, level, of, tariff this, idea, of, like, we, need, to, get, rid, of trade, deficits, There's, no, way, anybody

who's, studied, economics, or, finance, would think, that, that's, a, reasonable, thing, to do, Yeah, He, was, on, Meet, the, Press, this Sunday, He, looked, like, he, hadn't, slept well, It, didn't, look, authentic, Uh Stephanie, Rule, who's, a, reporter, at, MSNBC Take, for, what, it's, worth, Former colleague, of, mine, former, former, Wall Street, Journal, reporter, I, give, a, lot, of credibility, to, Wall, Street, Journal reporters, They're, very, good, Azer Bloomberg, Uh, um, two, favorite, news sources, out, there, But, she, said, there, are rumors, that, Besson, may, be, leaving because, he, has, his, own, legacy, to, protect And, if, you, look, at, the, policy, they're rolling, out, it, reminds, me, of, Andrew Melon, and, Herbert, Hoover, What's, the

famous, quote, liquidate, the, bonds liquidate, the, stocks, Liquid, It's, almost as, good, as, Michael, Sailor, Traders, going to, trade, shorts, going, to, short, long's going, to, long But, yeah, look, I, think, if, you're, Bess, and you're, saying, "Gee, do, I, want, to, be associated, with, this?", And, he's, not allowed, a, source, assertive, personality like, Howard, Lutnik, He's, not, a, bulldog like, that, And, Lutnik, can, appeal, to Trump's, prior, beliefs, and, instincts, and his, own, personal, grievances, Part, of, this you're, seeing, Trump's, dealing, with, like say, Japanese, real, estate, investors, in the, US, in, the, 80s, and, feel, agrieved about, that, You're, kind, of, seeing, that play, out, here, right yep, Anyone, have, any, more, comments, on

tariffs, and, Trump, and, what's, going, on right, now, yeah, one, one, last, one, It's it's, again, on, on, it's, I'm, going, to, be repetitive, but, this, is, what, they're saying is, they, believe, they're, telling, us, and, I think, they're, telling, us, this, because they, believe, in, this, That's, a, problem It's, not, a, negotiation, tactic, They believe, in, this, They, believe that 75%, of, tariffs, will, be, absorbed, by foreigners, and, 25%, passed, on, to, the, US when, in practice, on, the, short, term, is, 60, to, 80% more, like

80, passed, on, to, the, US, and, in, the, long run, is, closer, to, one, So, if, you, believe actually, the, US, only, takes, 25%, of, the burden, then, in, that universe, you, believe, tariffs, are, the best, thing, since, the, invention, of, uh, I don't, know, the, will, the, the, the, I, don't know, sex, you, know, invention, of, sex, he sees, it, as, a, scoreboard, in, fact, Trump, in this, press, conference, today, he, says, the trade, deficit, is, like, a, profit, and, loss statement, quote The, trade, deficit, is, like, a, profit, and loss, statement, How, do, you, change someone's, mind, if, that's, their, anchor, i

don't, know, how, you, get, They're, not, even thinking, about, like elasticity, He, thinks, the, scoreboard, is, a trade, deficit, negative, Actually, he's, got it, backwards, I, want, I, want, bigger, trade deficits, I, want, more, trade, I, want, more capital, investment, United, States, Um, and yeah, like, open, up, foreign, markets, sell the, F-35, jets, to, the, Europeans, who they're, not, going, to, buy, that, now They're, going, to, buy, uh, you, know, French and, UK, jets, from, BAE, Systems, or, whoever Yeah, I, mean, the, trade, deficits, like, some countries, and, some, areas, get, very, good at, very, particular, things, and, they, can offer, things, because, they're, more efficient, do, them, at, lower, cost, They have, lower, cost, of, capital, lower, cost, of

labor, all, these, different, things, make, it efficient, and, we, can, outsource, that, and we, benefit, from, those, efficiencies, Their argument, obviously, on, the, other, side, is that, we're, taking, those, jobs, away, from people, in, middle, America, and manufacturing, jobs, and, things, like, that But, I, mean, manufacturing, jobs, are, like less, than, 10%, of, the, jobs, in, the, US, So like, I, mean, it, was, it, hasn't, been something, in, the, US, that, we've, been doing, for, a, very, very, very, long, time, And like, you, keep, saying, like, okay automation, robots, we, can, bring, some, of this, back, but, like, if, that, was, your, goal like, you, don't, need, like, I, my, view, is like, if, Bessie, were, in, charge, he, would have, done, a, more, gradual, approach, like, I felt, like, we, heard, him, talking, about we're, going, to, incrementally, add, on, as tariffs, as, time, goes, by, to, force

companies, to, like, you, know, start onshoring, and, doing, things, on, shore, but doing, this, blank, and, like, shooting shooting, the, gun, right, off, the, start, Um yeah, how, do, you, create, jobs, if, your, game plan, is, to, build, robots, like, where's, the win, someone's, got, to, program, the, robot, I have, no, idea, Um, I, have, two, points, to make, One, that, uh, further, something, I, was trying, to, explain, before, and, didn't, do, a great, job, is, if, you, are, tariffing everybody, a, minimum, of, 10%, then, the exporters, have, no, incentive, to, lower their, prices, They, don't, have, to, You, have to, continue, to, pay, for, imports, because you're, not, going, to, get, the, products anywhere, else, especially, if, everyone, is paying, the, same, tariffs And, um, the, other, thing, is, we, haven't talked, about, and, we, should, sign, off, with

a, hope, and, that, is, the, regulatory, push back, the, push, back, from, Congress, We've already, seen, some, moves, on, this, front There, was, a, bill, passed, uh, in, the, Senate I, think, it, was, that, um, with, actually Republicans, voting, with, Democrats, enough to, pass, this, and, get, that, uh, it, was about, Canada, I, think, I'm, fuzzy, on, the details, there, There's, another, one, that has, been, presented, with seven, Republican, senators, co-signing with, obviously, a, Democrat, as, well, to overturn, the, tariffs, on, I, think, it's Canada, And, again, the, details, are, fuzzy The, point, that, my, takeaway, and, there's also, a, lawsuit, uh, based, in, Florida, that is, questioning, Trump's, ability, or, his

right, to, use, the, IEPA, for, broad, economic policy, The, IEPA, is, an, act, that, was passed, in, the, 1970s, if, I'm, not, mistaken to, give, the, president, the, opportunity, to use, targeted, economic, measures, in, times of, an, national, emergency, originating outside, the, US, It, has, never, before, been used, for, blanket, applications, of terrorists, It, has, never, before, been, used for, the, application, of, broad, economic policy, And, it, is, not, hard, to, argue, that this, is, way, beyond, what, it, was, designed for, So, if, they, manage, to, undermine Trump's, declaration, of, a, national

security, and, then, the, use, of, the, IEPA, to push, these, through, then, they, have, a, very good, chance, of, curtailing, some, of, the, um the, scope, that, Trump, wants, Maybe, not, all of, it, but, certainly, some, of, it, Now, the problem, is, that, the, Republicans, control Congress, but, they're, going, off, for recess, this, weekend, for, two, weeks, where many, of, the, the, representatives, in, swing states, will, be, talking, to, their, their constituents, And, they, very, very very much, do, not, want, Trump, does, not, want, to lose, control, of, either, the, House, or, the Senate, in, the, midterms, because, we, know that, right, after, they, do, impeachment proceedings, start, Well, so, they're, not he's, not, going, to, lose, that, tariff negotiation, authority, It's, just, the votes, just, aren't, there, There, is, descent

though, Ted, Cruz, is, pulling, back, shouting out, and, saying, "Look, there's, different things, on, his, podcast.", And, by, the, way real, quick, uh, here's, a, chart, showing, uh the, middle, class, And, the, story, on, this chart, is, that, the, middle, class, is graduating, to, 100,000, plus, high, income Now, someone, out, there, might, be, saying "Well, gee, that's, inflation.", No, no, no These, are, in, constant, dollars, This, is after, inflation So, people, are, getting, better, off, You know, there, are, real, issues, There are always, real, issues, that, need, to, be addressed, You, know, America, is, one, of, the unique, countries, where, people, have multiple, cars, washer, and, dryer, enjoy, all sorts, of, benefits, And, what, the, what, the

United, States, really, needs, is, health care, Care, for, the, elderly, care, for, the young, Health, care, jobs, pay, really, well You, can, be, a, nurse, a nethysist, like, a, kind, of, anesthesiology light, earn, $100,000, after, going, to school, for, a, couple, of, years, and, it's not, hazardous, like manufacturing, So, they're, focused, on, the wrong, objectives, Things, were, working things, are, working, We're, the, beneficiary of, globalization the, biggest, beneficiary, arguably, aside from, maybe, China, but, their, focus, on, on victimhood, which, is, ironic because, it's, part, of, the, criticism towards, uh, the, liberal, machine, that, they

breed, victimhood, in, people, You're, a victim, of, the, system, And, here, we, have Republicans, doing, exactly, the, same You're, a, victim, of, the, system, And, he he's, he, some, some, listeners, may, be, upset about, about, um, uh, about, me, saying, this but, Trump, is, saying, this, very, with, those word, that, he's, saying, we're, being, abused Who, is, being, abused, a, victim, So, that's exactly, what, he's, saying, Where's, the loss, who, who's, the, guy, complaining, about Vietnam, making, Nike, sneakers, where where's, the, victim, the, victim, is, a, Nike shareholder, the, Nike, customer, and, the human, being, in

Vietnam, But, you're, right, it, it, is grieving, It's, populist, language, I, don't know, if, it'll, work, Americans, are, a, lot smarter, now, Like, Twitter, consensus, is that, tariffs, are, bad Yep, I, mean, the, other, thing, is, like, the we, didn't, really, explain, why, Rahm, you basically, said, like, the, Congress, getting rid, of, some, of, his, tariffing, power, The reason, is, because, you, need, a, veto, proof because, the, bill, would, have, to, come, to Trump's, desk, and, you, need, a, veto, proof majority, And, while, we, have, enough senators, and, congressmen, to, pass, it through, now, to, get, to, his, desk, the question, is, will, they, have, a, veto, proof majority, and, right, now, they, don't, But, I mean, if, things, get, really, bad, it, who knows, how, this, could, go, there, It, could

they, could, take, it, away, and, before, that happens, Trump, will, probably, have, to capitulate, a, little, bit, himself, on, on what, he's, doing, here, Um, before, we, wrap up, I, will, the, one, other, positive, light here, is, that, there, every, I, feel, like every, week, I, read, something, positive happening, with, stable, coins, legislation Like, we, have the, two, acts, right, now going, through, Congress, the, the, Genius Act, and, the, Stable, Act, There's, like, 80 plus%, overlap, between, exactly, what, they want, to, do, They, just, got, to, fine-tune, it So, I, mean, that's, one, thing, that, will definitely, almost, certainly, help, to create, more, demand, for, US, dollars, I, mean like, it, or, not, do, we, actually, Paulo Ordoino, uh, the, CEO, of, Tether, was, on Tracy, and, Tracy, Aloway, and, Joe Weisenthal's, podcast, Oddlots, today, which is, one, of, the, biggest, it, is, the, biggest

podcast, from, Bloomberg, which, like, when, I saw, that, he, was, on, there, I, was, like, what is, going, on, right, now, like, this, is, how you, know, things, have, changed, from, like 2023, or, anytime, earlier, like, they, had people, on, that, saying, it, was, a, complete scam, not, that, long, ago, and, now, they're talking, to, CEO, and, he's, talking, with, the administration, about, the, way, some, of this, should, work, Um, so, I, mean, we're trying, to, look, at, for, a, positive, spin here, on, different, things, could, be happening, A, stable, the, stable, act, or, a genius, act, or, some, combination, of, the two, of, them, would, be, tremendously helpful, I, think, um, potentially, for, the treasury, market, but, definitely, for, the crypto, market, overall, it's, a, things, are heading, in, the, right, direction, I, don't know, if, you, guys, have, any, thoughts, on either, of, them, Good, point, All, right, Um

anyone, have, anything, else, to, say, about the, current, markets, so, Alex, what, do, you think, you, think, you, you, think, we're, due for, a, rebound, by, the, time, that, people are, listening, to, this, and, then, you, think it's, just, sell, sell, the, rally, Is, that, is that, your, short-term, tactical, view, or you, need, to, wait, and, see, uh, I, think, we can, see, a, very, strong, rebound, also, like I, know, we're, over, time, but, like, like, on on, headlines, like, for, example, how, how crazy, or, sensitive, this, market, is, Trump could, put, a, tweet, on, True, Social, or tweet, right, a, post, on, True, Social, saying uh, uh, we'll, be, having, a, call, with, G, uh tomorrow, expecting, very, nice, things expecting, to, to, have, a, very, good, deal great, deal, on, the, way, and, the, market

will, rally, 3% And, then, you Yeah, And, then, it's, like, yeah, it's, like okay, [ __ ], this, Sorry, mate Yeah, then, it's, the, opposite, You, know, the fake, Hasset, nude, was, a, five, six, seven% move, So, it, would, be, probably, even, more than, 3%, So, yeah, Rah, you, were, going to say, something, I, agree, Look, it's, headline risk, and, it's, just, not, inspiring confidence, in, capital, markets, It, causes a, lack, of, trust, in, markets, Investors pull, back, Investors, wait, and, see, They build, cash, They, sell, rallies, They, don't trust, statements, from, leadership, because they're, inconsistent, The, policies, are incoherent, That, sets, up, a, psychology that's, called, a, bare, market, And, it, can become, a, self-fulfilling, prophecy, It's

kind, of, simple, And, that's, what, you, have right, now, Um, I, agree, with, Alex, This, is, a lot, of, headline, risk, And, Alex, pointed this, out, I, think, two, ago, It's, a, Trump driven, market, It's, all, about, just, follow Trump, notifications, on, If, you, can, get, in quickly, get, in, But, these, sharp, furious two-day, rallies, I, expect, will, be, sold And, that's, what, happened, in Q4, 2018, until, you, had, clarity, and resolution, There's, no, clarity, How, do, you build, a, DCF, model, for, Apple, how, do, you model, out, your, margins, how, do, you, model out, your capex, how, do, you, model, it, out, your revenue, how, do, you, know, whether, uh someone, in, Canada, can, pay, for, an, app that's, just, one, company, That's, the, issue Analysts, don't, have, any, clarity

There's, a, risk, premium, Trump, we, went from, a, Trump, bump, last, year, I, was, one, of the, earlier, people, to, write, about, that And, I, went, into, the, election, say, don't be, hedged, Stay, long, long, and, strong, Now it's, the, opposite, You, went, from, a, you're going, from, a, Trump, bump, to, a, Trump, risk premium, because, of, the, uncertainty, in markets You, know, if, if, you, don't, know, it's, like like, you, just, use, ch Yeah, I, mean, like, they, did like, they, did, There's, a, nonzero, chance for, those, that, don't, know, that, uh, the administration, used, chat, GPT, to, come, up with, their, calculations, for, for, what, to do, with, tariffs, to, level, out, the, trade deficit, we, were, talking, about, I, mean

Trump, has, been, a, bid, on, the, V, of, right like, he, has, done, nothing, but, increase volatility, and, the, volatility, of volatility, itself, Um, so, it's, it's, it's interesting, to, watch, if, nothing, else, Uh but, yeah, it's, not, fun, I, mean, we've, said this, many, times, on, this, podcast, before Markets, do, not, like, uncertainty, and things, are, more, uncertain, now, than, I, I feel, like, since, 2020, in, my, mind, Like during, the, depths, of, COVID, we, didn't know, if, with, the, world, was, shutting, down and, how, bad, it, was, going, to, be, Like, but like, right, now, if, you're, running, a company, like, is, Trump, going, to, get, rid of, these, tariffs, and, lower, them, in, 3 months, after, you, started, like, investing in, onoring, your, manufacturing and, it's, hard, to, know, when, to, make, a

decision, and companies, they, thrive, on, certainty, and you, know, knowing, exactly, how, things, are going, to, work, in, the, US, and, Trump, is really, diminishing, you, know, that sanctity, of, the, US, market, uh, in, one, way or, another, Um, so, that's, my, last, final two, cents, I'll, say, but, that, said, I, feel like, most, of, the, selling, is, done, is, my personal, view, I, I, think, they'll, figure it, out, I, don't, think, we're, going, to, go that, much, farther, down, from, here, And like, Rahm, said, I, think, that, 4, 450, level kind, of, makes, sense, as, like, you, know really, really, truly, heavy, support, um for, potential, buying, but, who, knows, on, on positive, things, that, that, you, asked

James, Um, so, here, is, let's, try, to, be optimistic, One, of, the, main, goals, on, on tariffs, uh, on, on, the, Trump, admin, is, is going, after, China, is, is, so, it's, kind, of like, this, twofold, thing, on, one, hand, is we, want, tariffs, to, raise, revenue, or three-fold, tariffs, to, raise, revenue tariffs, to, bring, manufacturing, back, and tariffs, to, [ __ ], with, China, And, the, third thing, is, is, more, likely, I, think, and, that will, be, like, a, good, case, scenario, that it's, it, basically, unfolds, as, him establishing, trade, deals, with, almost everyone, that, matters, isolating, China Um, I, can, see, basically, um, with, a, little luck, uh, tariffs, going, down, with, Europe

and, and, staying, very, high, which, is, not good, but, but, it's, better, on, the alternative, stay, very, high, against, China All, right, This, is, a, rather, depressing episode, but, some, positive, outlooks, to close, it, out, I, guess, earning, season's coming, Earnings, will, be, there, you, go Yeah, that, will, cheer, people, up, Right Thanks, for, joining, us, for, this, episode of, Bits, and, Bits, We'll, be, back, in, one week, to, discuss, more, about, how, the worlds, of, crypto, and, macro, are, colliding Until, then, everyone [Music]