Client diversity chat, Core dev updates - The Daily Gwei Refuel #717 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of the Dead refuel where up latest news in ethereum ecosystem I'm your host anthy and today 22nd of January 2024 all right everyone let's get into it so just wanted to quickly mention a tweet that I put out over the weekend where I said that the deadly way refuel now consistently has 4,000 viewers SL listeners per episode uh pretty amazing honestly that it's at 4,000 considering the content that uh that is that gets put into the refuel right you guys know that the refu is definitely not for the Noob to crypto definitely not for the noob to ethereum definitely for the more advanced person just because I don't tend to talk about the new stuff newbie stuff I tend to talk the more advanced stuff so the fact that there's 4,000 people that check in every day you know via YouTube and the

podcast is pretty humbling honestly and it's pretty amazing that that's that that many people are getting that much value out of my show because you know it's a week it's an every or almost every weekday show there are some rug fuels here and there but almost every weekday show where as I said I discuss you know the the most in-depth bleeding edge ethereum things you know I'm always talking about like core Dev calls and ethereum research and ethereum road map like all this stuff is not for the faint of heart it is not for the noob uh kind of uh noobs out there it's definitely for the more advanced etheria you know I usually direct noobs towards something like bankless because they're definitely targeting that market a lot more and try to break things down for the Newbie audience whereas for me if I was doing

that every episode it would just become extremely repetitive right I do know that I repeat myself quite often but I think that's because I like to give extra context and just like to remind people about with that extra context for things that I'm covering uh but yeah just wanted to shout out and thank everyone for tuning in every day it really means a lot to me as you guys know the show is completely free no ads no sponsors no referral links none of that stuff and there's never going to be any of that stuff I do it because I love it and I do it because I know you guys get a lot of value out of it and I hope to continue doing it for you know as long as I can honestly I don't I don't really see any reason why I would stop

doing it because it's just it is honestly the highlight of my day U most days you know some days are better than other days obviously but it is definitely the highlight of my day most days and I really do feel disappointed whenever I have to do a rug fuel whenever I have to miss an episode for one reason or another so really just glad to continue doing it for the foreseeable future so yeah once again as I said thanks to everyone for tuning in hopefully we can get those numbers higher and higher but as I said like it is a very you know the the the daily way is definitely not a newb a noob friendly ecosystem but at the same time the daily way Discord channel is so if you are a newbie and you want to learn more about ethereum maybe you don't understand a

lot of the things that I say on the refi because you're just you're just new to the ecosystem you can definitely definitely jump jump into the daily way Discord Channel and there are lots of friendly faces in there willing to help you with really any question that you have so anyway moving on from that to some news so this was about the allore dev call that happened last week I actually missed a couple of things in that call that Christine Kim ended up covering here so the first thing that I missed was basically that the devs had actually landed on a few eips that they feel comfortable basically including in the Petra upgrade so the Christine Kim says here the three that the devs were most aligned about for Prague were EIP 6110 702 and 2537 the first two are staking related Cod changes that will

support EIP 7251 7251 is the max effective balance increase um as as Christine says here so yeah there are already eips that the cevs are already feeling comfortable with and I'm really happy that it's the eips that are basically prerequisites or basically required to support EIP 7251 which is probably my favorite EIP of the up that upgrade so far and at the same time I think I mentioned basically uh last week that I thought the chances of the veral tree related eips going into Petra were quite small and Christine Kim uh echoed that here while she said well I think the chances of vle vericle going into Prague are slim I still think the ambitious nature of eth devs will cause them to include other eips in Prague that make the upgrade hard to ship by

end of this year and I did I think mention that last week as well where I said that you know I guess like optimistically we could ship it this year uh but realistically probably early next year just because of the fact that as Christine says here you know the C Dev will probably want to include a lot of these eips because of the fact that there are a lot of really important eips that that are being proposed and that might push things out especially if there are like bugs or there are unforeseen kind of things that that the that comes up with the clients as we saw with denune for example with 4844 there was uh something that basically pushed that back from being able to be shipped in November to shipped in March uh and that was uh I can't remember exactly what it was but it had to do with IP

4844 and the devs basically agreed that they'd rather do that now than wait until the next upgrade to do it and if it cost you know a couple of months worth of worth of time there then it was worth it and of course it happened during the holiday period so kind of threw things off a bit so the same thing could happen here by the end of the year you know gets gets around to November and people are maybe expecting test Nets to start or stuff like that and then something happens and then we start the test Nets in like January like we have with denune but again not really a big deal and honestly these eips the ones that have been proposed so far I don't know if I'd call any of them directly user facing I mean besides 7251 which obviously is solo Staker facing uh

but also just like stakers in general facing uh and also that has Downstream effects like 7251 going to the network could allow us to do things like um essentially uh increase the blob sizes which are user facing because it means that l2s get cheaper for users or rollups get cheaper for users but I don't know if there's anything directly user facing here a lot of these things are definitely more geared towards Developers developers out just hardening the network setting the groundwork for future upgrades that's that's what this kind of stuff is and again like that's the reason why we push so much stuff to layer twos guys because layer one changes like most of them are not user facing they're not I mean they're not directly user facing right but anyway uh that's just some of the things that I missed covering last week that I just

wanted to cover but you can go check out Christin Kim's twet thread for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right so uh this is something I wanted to talk about today uh for a little bit actually I'm probably going to spend a good chunk of time on this because I think it's important to talk about this again but just to give some some context here nethermind had or the nethermind ethereum execution layer client had a bug today that affected validators that were connected to it so I think around 10% of the network was basically offline for a couple of hours or a few hours because nethermind forked off of the main chain onto its own chain uh due to a bug now this bug was quickly fixed and then people could upgrade their nodes and and be on their merry

way and the network basically self healed like usually does but the reason I wanted to spend a bit of time on this today is because client diversity has once again become a big topic uh because we had obviously the Basu bug a few weeks ago now I've had the nether mine bug and everyone's like okay well you know how can we do client diversity when you're encouraging people to use clients that aren't gu and GE is the only client that hasn't had a bug recently it's like well okay for starters GE isn't the only client that hasn't had a bug recently there are other clients out there and secondly just because gu hasn't had a bug doesn't mean it's not going to have a bug in the future future right and I think this is what trips a lot of people up where they when they when they kind

of push back on this they don't actually understand what the value of client diversity is and I actually had this discussion with some friends today and I managed to Define it in in kind of in kind of so many words I said to to my friends I'll just quote what I said I said the entire point of client diversity is that we know that there is no way to be 100 100% sure that any client won't have a bug in it at some point so we limit limit the damage by trying to be sure sorry by trying to ensure that no one client has a super majority so here's two scenarios to consider right now gu has a super majority on the network right if gu has a bug that leads to finalization on a bug chain so let's say gu has a bug that leads it to Fork

off and onto its own chain and because gu is the super majority it finalizes on that and that becomes the canonical chain to fix that would require a social coordin socially coordinated hard Fork that is not something that can be fixed in protocol it would require extra protocol uh uh uh uh fixes which basically means social coordination to fix that now now just think about all the negative externalities that come off of that just think about all the consequences of that and think about how much of a show that would be right it would be on par with the Dow just like a 100 times bigger because the ecosystem is 100 times bigger than it was back in 2016 right so obviously that is the worst case scenario and that can realistically happen if gu has a bug in it that causes it to split off of the

network and as I said just because G hasn't had one of these bugs yet doesn't mean it won't there is absolutely no correlation between the popularity of gu and the stability of gu up until this point with its chances of having a bug or not GE is not static software GE is the same as every other execution layer client in that it has to upgrade at least once you know every so often for the network upgrades that go into place right it has to upgrade to that so uh to say that you know GE is safer because it's hasn't had a bug in a while or because it you know it's used by so many people it's very popular is completely wrong so but that's the first scenario that that's what would happen today because gu is still the super majority client now let's consider the second

scenario which is in my op opinion the better scenario no client has a super majority so no single client has the you know 2third of the network uh or or or basically takes up 2/3 of the network and let's just say that any one of those clients has a bug so let's say that even gu was to have a bug the network would degrade let's say that gu accounts for 30% of the network okay well 30% of nodes would basically or valid validat I should say would basically be offline that means that we are running at a degraded capacity that uh means that finalization is still occurring but uh the network is running at a degraded capacity but let's even say in the worst case that it's 40% gu and then gu has a bug and now we're down to 60% well that means we're down below the finality

threshold which means that we're the chain is no longer finalizing but the chain is still online the chain is still processing blocks uh at a reduced rate right now the fix for this is released within a couple of hours from the GU team and everyone upgrades and everything is fine right every everything is fine because finality is restored uh and then the the only penalties were the inactivity League penalties for GU and then miss block block proposals for people running gu for those few hours at most so which scenario would you prefer would you prefer the first scenario where it requires the a socially coord coordinated Fork to fix which is the worst case scenario and something that we want to avoid at all costs or would you like the second scenario where no client has a super majority even though that may increase the risk of there

being you know a big part of the network being on a bugged clients I always prefer the second scenario because it doesn't matter if there is a bug in even it's something has like 50% of the network that is still okay because of the fact that the bug will get fixed relatively quickly and it doesn't lead to a finalization on a um a super majority clients that was bugged right that that that is the worst case scenario as I said because it requires social coordination to fix and the term fix here I'm using very lightly because fix then becomes subjective because everyone has a different opinion on what you would want to do like do you roll back the chain do you do you doing a regular State change do you accept this new bug chain as the canonical one well what if the bug is an infinite mint bug

of eth you wouldn't no one's going to accept that no one's going to accept that there's just going to be infinite eth out there that would crash the price of eth to zero so in that scenario let's just you know let's just put some hard kind of facts on this in that in that scenario there is no way that anyone would agree to keep that as the finalized chain so it would require an irregular State change or it would require a full-blown chain roll back which it is extremely messy I can't even describe how messy this is this this the the amount of coordination that would be required here as well not just between the core devs but everyone running ethereum kind of node software full node software staking software anything got to do with the the ethereum network all of the infrastructure providers everything right it would be in massive

lift and it would completely destroy ethereum's credibility it would completely destroy ethereum's uh kind of um claim to fame of being you know reliable and secure and never going offline like that would be gone if gu had a bug and we finalized on that on that kind of bug chain and then we had to read we had to basically roll that back essentially so this is why people Bang the Drum about client diversity because at the end of the day it doesn't matter if clients have bugs the whole point is that we can't ever be sure that a client will not have a bug and that's why we need to make sure that no client has a super majority on the network and this applies to every single Network guys this does doesn't apply to ethereum it applies to every single Network even Bitcoin Bitcoin only has one client

that's basically 99% of the network there are some other offshoot clients but Bitcoin call for all intents and purposes is the network is the spec as well like Bitcoin core dictates what Bitcoin is so if there was a bug in Bitcoin core that l that um led to infinite mint you bet your ass that they would fix that right and but the thing is they would have to fix that by doing a roll back and doing a hard Fork on that but the thing is is that that again is extremely messy that K that kills a lot of bitcoin's credibility and it kills a lot of uh you know bitcoin's uh I guess meme as being super reliable and super stable so like the fact that Bitcoin doesn't have client diversity in my opinion is very bearish and any CH that doesn't have client diversity for

me is really bearish because on a not long enough time Horizon the chances of having a bug right approaches 100% especially if the software is changing which it is in ethereum like the software is not static guys like even outside of network upgrades it's changing because of the fact that the client teams put in um you know work on their clients they do optimizations and stuff like that and some of those optimizations can lead to bugs which I think was the case with nethermind so when you really think about it and you really break all of this down it is always better for no client to have a super majority and it is always better for client uh for there to be client diversity even if the other clients have have in them even if any client has bugs in them and I think that's the point

that I've been trying to get across to people both privately and publicly and I hope that I was able to get that point across to you guys but now I I I'm not going to spend too much longer on this but I do want to finish up by saying that the the problem is is that we only need a couple of the big staking entities to change off of gu in order to fix this issue coinbase and Lio note operators if all of those changed off of off of gu they could even use I mean rough math here but they could probably still use 50% GE and we would be able to get gu down to from being a super majority if 50% wasn't uh you know wasn't being used on gu there as part of coinbase and Lio but let's just say that they they changed off of it that would

be enough to move the needle here guys and then people say well okay let's get you know other people to move as well it's like yeah that's fine but the thing is is that if you're talking about percentage terms coinbase and Lio definitely have the biggest percentage here and coinbase alone has the biggest single entity percentage I mean last time I checked what that were like 14% of the network or something like that probably more I'm going to I'm going to look here um you know 15% 15.3% of the network so they stand to lose the most here I actually said this to my uh to to my to one of my friends as well I said coinbase actually stands to lose the most in this scenario and this scenario being if there was a bug on gu that led to a super majority canonical chain H

sorry led to a bug chain uh finalizing um they are the biggest single entity Staker by far and this will be a storm of PR for them it is in every one of their best interests to swap over from gu or at least swap over and still use gu as a backup and I don't understand why they haven't done this yet like I mean okay I'm not going to say I don't understand I do understand there are big operation right changing over is a is a big thing for them it's also risky and especially in the light of them seeing bugs in Basu and nether mine they're probably like okay well G hasn't had a bug yet and get's been reliable I we're not really kind of wanting to switch over but at the same time when you think about it and when you think about what I just talked about

it would still be better for coinbase to go over to a minority client than it would be to stay on gu even if there was a bug in that Minority client because as I said they could quickly switch over to gu or quickly switch over to another client there's no need for them to just run one client I'm sure they have backups already so all we're really asking of coinbase and Lio not operators is hey you can still run gu if you want just don't connect your validators to it as the primary execution layer client connect them to nethermind connect them to Basu and then have gu as a backup so even if there is a bug in nether mind and Basu it won't affect your performance and they aren't super majorities be super majority of clients which means we won't have that worst case scenario so no matter which way you

look at it client diversity is the most important thing when it comes to ethereum but nothing I I actually believe that in in terms of stability and security and reliability of the ethereum network Cent diversity is the number one thing and we need to fix it so please if you know anyone at coinbase put pressure pressure on them tweeted them you know call them out I know that they said the other day they were going to switch off of of gu but they're still on gu and I understand it takes a while for them to do this they their big operation whatever whatever else is is going on there but put pressure on them put pressure on coinbase keep talking about it keep being loud about it because as I said worst case scenario is really really bad for ethereum and it is really really bad for those single large

single entity stakers like coinbase like could you imagine like the pr storm that would ensue for them like I actually I think it would affect their stock price as well because ethereum is such a huge part of um their business as well because of bass you know don't forget they AR they aren't just having a e staking they also have Bas which they're putting a lot of resources into to they have a lot of tokens that trade that are erc20 tokens they have a lot of things that they're doing with the l2s so when you look at it from that perspective it's in literally every one of their best interest to get off GE anyway that's the end of the rant there I know I I went ranty about that but I'm getting pretty frustrated at this point that uh essentially people aren't treating client diversity as you know as

as critical as it is when it is it is the most critical thing in my opinion in ethereum because if ethereum layer one goes down all the layer twos go down guys yes they could probably still process uh transactions and offchain uh using their own sequences but like then they're really just de facto not I mean I wouldn't even call them a layer 2 at that point because in then if ethereum layer one doesn't really go you know it doesn't go back up for a while you're basically just trusting the L2 to process those and then there's all kind of like extra trust assumption there it just becomes very messy so ethereum layer 1 needs to stay online 100% of the time or at least we want to try to keep it online 100% of the time uh and doing that requires client diversity so yeah

anyway I'm going to uh in that rant there for today moving on to something a bit more positive I should say which is just a tweet that I saw from Steven goldfeder here who is the co-founder of offchain labs as you guys know build the arbitrum uh ecosystem so he basically said arbitrum orbit which is their answer to I guess the op stack in the polygon cdk um he says arbitrium orbit L2 on ethereum arbitrate or orbit L3 on albit 1 arbitrum orbit L3 on arbitrum Nova etc etc endless possibilities and I talked about this last week about how arbitrum orbit chains are now able to basically settle to anywhere whether that be ethereum L1 or or or arbitrum 1 L2 or another L2 or you know uh use another data availability layer don't

have to use ethereum right they don't have to be a rollup they can be a validium things like that but the reason I want to talk about this a bit more today was because like this is the freedom that the modular approach offers you as a builder right like previously if you were building on ethereum pre- l2s you wouldn't have any freedom to do this you'd basically be tied down to the rules of the ethereum layer one and you'd be limited by the ethereum layer one and you would be able to not affect any change there and that's why we've seen so many l1s kind of uh I guess like spin up over the years because people wanted to experiment with different things but there was just no way to do that on ethereum L1 so obviously we saw these other L1 spin up and say Hey you

know we're not evm you know we don't use solidity you can do this you can do that uh and you can experiment with this you can experiment with that hey we're you know we're not proof of work we're proof of stake you know etherum is proof of steak yet but we are when in reality I mean they're like delegated proof of stake which is just the worst version of proof of stake in my opinion but you know they're that right or they're like you know we don't like the way that a is doing this we're going to do it this way so I understand that from that perspective but the L2 and the l3s Now cover most of what the you know most of the experimentation that people want to do outside of wanting to experiment with things like consensus mechanisms and and maybe some some more intricate things

there which honestly is not something that I think was a different differentiator for for networks to be honest uh for most networks and I don't really think it's something that's going to get you product Market fit with actual end users for everything that would get you product Market fit with I should say developers and end users is the fact that you can experiment with different uh virtual machines different programming languages and different types of apps that aren't limited by ethereum L1 and that's exactly why a lot of these L2 teams are targeting these markets you know letting people build their own chains letting them kind of put their data wherever they want to put it put it letting them uh uh code in things or or make smart contract in things that aren't solidity giving them more control over over how they do their fees you know I mentioned I think a

couple months ago that uh immutable X was offering or IM mutable zkm was basically offering uh uh to allow people to to basically uh subsidize the fees for their users and offer free free transactions all that stuff so yeah I mean there's Endless Possibilities there as Steven says here so I just figured that was worth bringing up again and worth talking about again because the L2 space is getting real CR crowded now I mean it's been crowded for a while but it's getting even more crowded it's becoming like grifty as well which I don't like uh there was the L2 recently I think Manta Network or something they did their airdrop but like they have this weird ass hybrid approach where they're using polka dot for something and then like they're not even really an L2 by the definitions that we use and there was like and then their I think

their RPC kind of like couldn't handle the traffic or something I I didn't look into it too closely but like there are a lot of there's going to be a lot of grifty l2s out there and there's going to be a lot of gifty projects that that say they're an L2 but in reality they're not or kind of try to capture the L2 marketing hype this always happens guys I mean the same is true for something like reaking like any primitive or and data availability as well like any new thing that comes to crypto always gets grifted on really really quickly and ethereum has had its fair share of grifting on as well obviously people forking the evm and basically saying hey we solved all the scalability problems of ethereum uh when in reality they're just using the evm and they've cranked up the gas limit and centralized

everything like that or maybe lower block times as well right so yeah just keep an eye out for that but generally as yeah as St said here Endless Possibilities but also maybe endless possibilities for for grifters too unfortunately but that is what that is what comes with I guess the territory when you're a permissionless ecosystem all right so something that I I sure I saw shared a bit on Twitter over the weekend was uh there is a prediction market right now for what the prices of blobs will be 1 month after EIP 4844 now you guys know you guys know that once blobs go live on the ethereum network they start off at basically I guess like basically one way uh because no one's using them at the at the very start uh and they have their own fee

market so they're completely separate to the normal execution layer fee Market where fees are currently foru which is probably the lowest have been in a little while if you've got anything you need to do on eth L1 probably Now's the Time um and people are betting on you know what the cost will be in uh in eth terms here which is I guess like if you translate that to gay terms so you can see here that I think most people think it's going to be between 0.00001 uh and 0.01 e uh and you can see that the percentage chances that uh of that that's I think 77 com combined percent chance there uh and then I guess like there's a there's a bit more money to be made if you're right on the other chances and the funny thing about this is that no one really knows because

there are so many unknowns here like if you think about it there's unknowns in the fact that like how many l2s are actually going to be using blobs or how many rollups are going to be using blobs after a month uh is it going to be spammed with inscriptions is it going to be spammed with other types of trans other types of kind of like transactions that just fill up the blob space like we don't actually know uh and I think that a month after we'll probably get a pretty good idea but at the start we won't know won't know so it's it's pretty cool this is doing one month after EIP 4844 goes live because we did it like a few days after it probably wouldn't give you much signal but after a month I think things start to become clearer and we start to get a clear

picture of what things look like here but yeah I'm going to keep an eye on this see what the odds kind of go like I'm I am not placing any bets myself because honestly I I just don't know I think there's too many unknowns to place a place a reasonable bet here but if that's something that you're interested in you can go check this out I think it's on uh I don't know if oh yeah yeah so it's linked here it's on poly Market you can go check out this I'll um I'll link this in the YouTube description below but yeah I mean it'll be it's close guys it's very close now uh as I said like there's no mayet date yet for denune but like mid to late March so you know two months away basically from now until we see uh denk go live hopefully

so we won't have to wait much longer and I guess like a month after for these bet to resolve but I guess within the first couple of weeks we'll probably start to see exactly how people are going to be using blobs which is going to be an exciting thing to see all right so just a last thing here from the ethereum attestation service they have announced something called the attestation Fellowship it is a six-week Builder program taking promising attestation Founders from idea stage to demo day in front of the a leading ecosystem Partners you can apply to to the inaugural batch at this link I'll link it in the YouTube description below uh and they say here we're helping ideas stage Founders switch from bounty hunting to business building so apply before February 18th the top 10 teams will be selected 5 weeks of intensive

building with Mentor support prep for your demo day and pitch in front of leading ecosystem Partners so if this at all interests you and you're a builder or an aspiring Builder as I said you can go apply to this the link will be in the YouTube description below uh and then I think deadline the deadline here is Feb 18th so you have about 3 weeks uh yeah just over 3 weeks I think from today to go apply 3 and 1/ half weeks uh just looking out the math in my head quickly there uh and I couldn't think of a better team to work with honestly the etherum station service team uh is great I've had a number of calls with them I've spoken to them I've met them in real life actually at eth Denver last year um but they have been great and the

thing is e etherum MST station service is a public good as well this is like kind of completely open source public good they haven't taken any VC money as far as I know they're not trying to monetize this they're just trying to be a nice incredibly neutral open- Source public good on ethereum for attestations which I think obviously is solely needed and something that is going to scale quite well as we begin to build out more identity Solutions as we begin to do things like what coinbase is doing with bass where they're basically tying ethereum addresses to coinbase accounts in order to offer perks and things like that the possibilities really are endless here and if you haven't listened to it yet there was a great bankless podcast with the etherum atation service um Founders uh I think it's a little while ago now you you can probably just

search etherum atation Service Bank list and it'll come up and it explains exactly what it is what the possibilities are and all that good stuff there so you can go check that out yourself I'll uh just Google that and I'll link this thing in the YouTube description below uh for you to check out now finally I've got a few minutes here wanted to quickly talk about the markets a little bit because uh it's just kind of funny how like these things play out and it's funny how I reflect back on what I said even a couple of months ago and it's kind of playing out exactly how I said not that I not to say that I'm an oracle of the market or anything like that I get a lot of things wrong but one thing I just wanted to mention was that I think I said like a

couple months ago or maybe even less than that maybe a month ago that the market was very confused about what to do Post BTC ETF spot approvals now I did say that I thought the market would rotate into eth which it did E BTC went up and it seems to have bottomed for now and the sentiment kind of shifted there but I also said that the market was in this like limbo state where essentially no one knew if the ETF stuff was going to be like sell the news or buy the news and that basically meant that things went sideways now of course it ended up being kind of both into the approvals where there was an initial Spike of buying but then there was a selloff and then it's kind of bled since then but if you actually look at what BTC has been

doing it's it's really been in this kind of range right like it had a massive run up from 25k to almost 50k uh you know on the ETF hype but obviously I think that most of the move was 25k to 45k because to 50K was like just a bit of a spike and then it sold back down but it's still kind of in that 40 to 50K range now whether it goes lower or or higher from here I don't know but really I think the market is still in that kind of decisive phase where it's like okay well we had all the ETF hype it went up a lot now people are taking profits right they're taking the trade profits they're ro rotating into other things like eth but still they're confused about where we go from here and that's totally normal for the market to do

because there was a consensus trade leading up to the ETF and now there's not really a consensus trade right there's not really something that people can point to as an obvious signal I mean besides the spot e ETFs which right now don't have that much hype because they're still pretty far away and also they don't have as big of a chance as the Bitcoin ones did and I think the market uh the market kind of is is is um knows that to an extent not not to say that I don't think that eth is going to definitely you know have a lot of that hype as we get closer to I think the final deadline is in May but you know I think that we have to kind of go through this hangover after all the hype of the BTC ones then we can we can start again

but really I just view it as consolidation after everything went up a lot like guys some stuff went up just absolutely crazy amounts over the past few months right I mean like just picking out some of the most obvious ones like the meme coins they went up so much and like so so many of these other coins that had no reason going up went up so much right just based on pure hype based on pure Rotator capital and as I've said like I I still don't really see that much new money coming in there has been new money that came in but it mostly went into BTC and I think eth to an extent right I don't think it really went into anything else I think the money going into everything else came from people selling their BTC and eth as it went up and and rotating it in or

crypt natives I should say and rotating it into other things in terms of actual full-blown normi users and normi money coming in there's barely any of that right now and as I've said before that doesn't really start until things hit alltime highs again and it doesn't last for very long either but at the same time uh right now in the market conditions that we're in I feel like we could just crab for a little while here I know I've said before that I you know I feel like we could go to all-time highs in in Q2 but at the same time I did I I I did say that that was like a coin a coin toss I gave it like a 50-50 chance it could happen in Q2 or it could happen in Q3 that's still my window here but and and I think I've mentioned in

the past as well that things can go sideways for quite a while guys like actually it you know BTC could realistically go sideways for like 6 months here like a full 6 months I I know we have the harving coming up in April but usually that just leads to a high pump into it and then sell back down because it's the same Capital rotating through again but realistically you could see BTC range between like 40 and 50k for 6 months from here and that's totally healthy there's nothing wrong with that but also you could see things start heating up again for one reason or another right so there there's too many different variables I think to to call anything here and really all it balls down to me saying is that it could go up down down or sideways but I think the point of what I'm saying here is

that like I think the bull market is still intact it's still fine this is completely normal stuff yeah and things going sideways doesn't mean the bull market is off I mean we're not in a bare Market we're just basically correcting off of an amazing run that we've had across most crypto assets over the past I guess you could say like four months now four five months now especially on BTC when went which went up only for like 6 months like that is not sustainable guys it's not something that's going to sustain itself especially in the face of things like uh tra you know people taking profits off of the ETF trade and also there's been a lot of outflows from gbtc because people were trapped in gbtc now they can get out but I think a lot of those outflows are actually being actually just going

to other ETFs so and I think people are just playing that narrative as well kind of like a Trader narrative but yeah anyway I think I've gone overtime on the episode there for today didn't want to spend too long on the markets but that's basically how I see things uh but yeah I think on that note that's going to be it for today so thank everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel for if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all tomorrow thanks everyone