CFTC drama, Bullish ETH and much more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #454 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone and welcome to another episode of The Daily refuel where he kept the latest news in ethereum ecosystem I'm your host Anthony sassano and as the 23rd of September 2022. all right everyone let's get into it so some fresh regulatory news out today that isn't actually uh positive it's actually quite negative now this was announced on Twitter by a bunch of various uh people but uh this tweet from DB reads uh the commission defines the Uki Dao unincorporated association as those holders of Uki tokens that have voted on governance proposals with respect to running the business if you are a Uki token holder who voted on governance proposals you just got charged so the original kind of thing here is that the cftc is charging the ukidao which I believe was bzx before it was called Uki

for the offering of a legal off exchange digital asset trading registration violations and failing to comply with the bank secrecy a secrecy act this is obviously pretty serious charges here but in their um in the kind of charges they also Define the people who are holding the governance tokens and have used those governance tokens to vote on things uh as people that can be charged as well here which obviously doesn't really make much sense it's a big overreach and this is disappointing coming from the cftc who have traditionally been I guess more more friendly than the SEC at least but it seems they're all going down the the same path now where they're trying to I guess uh use as much power as they can even if they don't have that power to go

after things like D5 and we all knew this was coming right like we all knew that the fires uh I guess regulatory issues are only going to get worse from here but this sort of stuff is just way overstepping right it just doesn't really make any sense and there's a few takes here from some lawyers first one from Jake travinsky who said the cftc's bzx enforcement action may be the most egregious example of Regulation by enforcement in the history of crypto we've complained at length about the SEC abusing this tactic but the cftc has put them to shame and you can read uh commissioner's Mercy a descent here as well which I'll link in the YouTube description and then Jay continues by saying it's deeply disappointing to see the cftc damage its own reputation like this among those who care about the

future of crypto in the United States especially at a critical moment where while it pitches itself in Congress as the right agency to regulate quote-unquote digital commodity trades so I mean I totally agree with Jake it's very disappointing here and uh where he says you know this is regulation by enforcement rather than uh regulation uh uh via kind of uh the the traditional and the proper means through the law and things like that what he's basically saying is that this is kind of going to lead to a chilling effect I mean the goal would probably be that chilling effect where the same is with ofak where they went after tornado cash they wanted to put a chilling effect on mixes on on ethereum right and for people using that mixer so the same is true with this is it seems like the cftc is uh coming hard

against a small player like Uki or bzx uh they're very small actually now they used to be a lot bigger up back in the day but they're tiny now because busy X's history is pretty pretty bad actually I think they've been hacked like three times uh they just didn't really ever get product Market fit uh and now they're being charged with this so what ends up happening is that they go after the smaller players because they're the ones who can't fight back or I can't afford the nice fancy lawyers can't afford to to kind of go through all the Motions to fight back against this and then that leads to a chilling effect for all the bigger players or leads to essentially these bigger players over complying or you know complying way more than they should sort of what we saw like with the ofak

sanctions and I think that because the ofax sanctions seems to have worked so well at least temporarily these other agencies are probably looking at that and being like wow okay you know these guys are just going to fall over these guys are just pushovers we can just do regulation via enforcement without having to actually prove any wrongdoing or have to go to court or you know settle with lawyers we can just scare everyone into compliance that is a really shitty thing to do but not uh surprising and also I don't think it's going to work long term it'll for sure work short term but what's good what will end up happening is if they keep going down this road these institutions and regular regulation regulatory bodies keep going down this road of enforcement uh via uh via sorry of um enforcement in oh example of Regulation by enforcement

so I should say what's going to end up happening is that a lot of play a lot of uh people businesses uh dowels whatever that you know whatever you want to call them are going to leave the US they're going to go somewhere else which is more friendly to them and that's going to be a huge blow to the us because we all know we all believe that crypto is the future of of not only finance but of a lot of different things within a lot of different Industries and if the US wants to take such a Hardline stance against that and scare off all the talent well that's very bearish for the US's kind of Outlook within crypto now as I said this is a short-term thing uh in terms of it working so medium to long term it would result in that or these agencies

basically uh they try this and then it doesn't work and then they maybe play but play fairer but I I don't know I don't really trust any of these agencies to do that and this is just very very disappointing and there's a couple of other tweets here uh one here from uh a Twitter account uh called chairman burb Bernanke who said the cftc themselves has never defined a dow this way this is the first instance even masinga can find of this definition I don't think this is how the law should work this is a mission that you can be charged with a crime that's only defined when you're charged now that's a key point there now uh basically the way they've defined a Dao here is that the the they always defined as any one token holder but is anyone who voted during a time period

this means you can be in the Dow by being a token holder but if you vote for anything such as a higher interest rate then only then are you liable so this is really like stupid and as they pointed out here this is an admission that you can be charged with a crime that's only defined uh when you're charged which is obviously not a fair way to do justice it doesn't make any sense and it is again a massive overreach here so I think that all in all this is very I mean I wouldn't say it's bearish or scary or anything for D5 I would say it's concerning in that these Regulators are trying everything they can it seems to come down on crypto uh without actually having the power to do so they're trying to do that chilling

effect they're trying to scare people and I mean it worked for ofax so the SEC and the cftc are probably looking and being like okay well let's just do the same thing let's just scare people into compliance scare people into over compliance and to their I guess credit on this like I mean a lot of D5 is easily scared especially the D5 projects that are based in the US there the team members obviously don't want to fall afoul of the law at all and they've got lawyers and stuff but still they don't want to have to spend time on that so they definitely over comply when they uh when they shouldn't and last up here is a tweet from from Drew hinks about this who says cftc uh brings uh he had just basically announced it uh first regulatory action against adao so uh

charging ukidao with operating an unlicensed fcm seeking discouragement restitution civil monetary penalties trading and registration bans and injunctive relief this is a you know there's obviously very serious charges and they've kind of gone the full for nine yards here uh and they're doing it against the Dow as well and as I said they defined a Dao as basically the token holders who vote on things not just the token holders themselves but you have to actually actively participate in governance and what I find hilarious about this is that most of the people who hold these tokens never ever participate in governance and that's not because of legal liability uh at least not for for most people it's because they just don't care to right and this is just going to actually have a more chilling effect and make people uh not want to do it because in case

they they are breaking a law here but the way uh I I view this is it's basically as I said again it's it's basically trying to do that chilling effect but the chances of you getting in trouble for voting on something uh and in a dow uh is the same chances of you getting in trouble for pirating copyrighted content right like it's it's just in theory I mean yeah you may be doing something wrong but in practice you're probably not going to get prosecuted for it or get any um any anyone coming after you they usually go after the source you know in terms of um of pirated content they usually go after the Distributors and in terms of a dow they would probably go after the people actually building the I guess defy app that is associated with the Dow uh because it's just a better way to to do

it and and it's basically impossible to go after every single little individual right but still concerning uh not great uh I think that we're gonna have to just like see how this folds out over the next few years there's going to be fighting over this within potentially in the courts but outside of the courts between lawyers and I mean at the end of the day the winners from this are the lawyers like all the D5 teams are probably like holy like I need to be prepared for this I need to probably get lawyers all this sorts of stuff but we'll have to see uh what happens there but on that note there was some positive news over the last 24 hours on the regulatory front um which I guess is related to the regulatory fund and that is that GitHub unbanned the tornado cash organization

and contributors on their platform uh which means that the tornado uh cash code is now live on GitHub again which is awesome uh obviously I remember I spoke about this when the ofak when ofac sanctioned tornado catch the first time and GitHub was very very quick to take it down because of the fact that it was on the sanctions list now the code itself ofac actually stated that uh here on the 14th of September the U.S persons are not prohibited by U.S sanctions regulations from copying the open source code and making it available online for others to view which means that GitHub is not liable if it's on their website because it's not actually illegal for them to do that so it's really really cool to see that they've unbanned it now uh still I mean

look GitHub is obviously a pretty big centralized point of failure for a lot of our industry because everyone uses it to store code and yeah okay it's open source but I mean at the click of a button they can remove that from their platform so we definitely need to still kind of encourage decentralized versions of GitHub or putting code in multiple places not just on on one uh Mega centralized website because GitHub is owned by Microsoft for those of you who didn't know so obviously one of the most centralized and U.S Centric companies in the world that is definitely not going to uh not going to fight for us right uh and because our industry is still so small comparatively but also uh we should just have the code on multiple different places but still cool to see

that this was unbanned uh as I said some lights positive regulatory news in the face of that really shitty cftc news over the last 24 hours all right so Terence from the prior uh prylabs Team uh tweeted out one week since the merge everyone around me is just working on withdrawals and 4844 can devs take a break please I remember I said uh you know uh after the merge that or leading up to the merge that the devs were actually going to take a four to five week break uh until after Devcon in order to recharge their batteries but as I said before it seems like they are so I guess like there's so much momentum after the merge and they they feel so I guess motivated to keep working on stuff that they're

still working on withdrawals and 4844 which are both uh tentatively scheduled to go into the Shanghai update which is absolutely awesome I mean both of these things are major upgrades right I mean technically withdrawals being enabled is in a quote unquote upgrade but it's a feature that is needed to to complete that Loop of proof of stake ethereum you know some some could argue that I mean you could make the argument that ethereum is not a 100 full proof of stake Network as it exists today because we don't have withdrawals enabled and it limits the network still and I I would actually agree with that argument so that's obviously coming as soon as it can and then 4844 is that Proto dank sharding which may not seem urgent right now consider considering demand is quite low gas fees on layer 1 are low which

means gas speeds on layer twos are low and layer twos are scaling in their own ways as well independent of layer one but we still want to get that ship we still want to get that on the network because that future proofs uh you know the the scalability of ethereum for quite a while and when the demand does come back and we do have a lot of new users coming back they're not going to have to contend with ethereum layer 1's exorbitant gas fees because the gas fees are going to go back up definitely I have no doubt about that just because people are on layer twos instead of layer ones doesn't mean they're still not going to be plenty of people on layer one there is still like 50 billion dollars of tvl even at these depressed prices on layer one so there's still a

ton of activity on there and so the fees are going to go back up but because we have these layer twos live and they have ecosystems built out as well they're going to be the preferred place for people to go that don't want to or don't have the ability to pay those high gas fees and nor should they have to pay those high gas fees so I'm obviously looking forward to both of these uh for completely different reasons I'm looking forward to withdrawals because I want us to close that Loop and also enable people to withdraw from somewhere where they they're not comfortable staking anymore and go stake with another provider maybe they want maybe they staked with Lido originally now they want to change the rocket pool because when they stick with Lido rocker pool wasn't out right and maybe they don't want to take that that haircut uh from

selling the stf which isn't actually too bad these days but maybe they would just rather withdraw everything that they have uh from the um the beacon chain itself or maybe they staked with coinbase and want to go to Rocket pool or maybe they stacked enough each during the bear Market that they want to become a solo Staker now and originally they put their Ethan to coinbase maybe they put like 28th into coinbase because that's all they had at the time and then they were able to stack more and now they have the 32 necessary to solo stake uh and then they're going to go do that or maybe people have just seen all the ofax stuff and being like holy like I need to get my eat off these centralized places because it's at risk of of social slashing it's a bigger risk than going with uh you know a solo

Staker or a decentralized pool such as Rocket pool so we're going to see that great reshuffling with withdrawals but I'm I definitely want to see that as soon as possible and obviously 4844 are Proto dank sharding speaks for itself uh at this point because I've spoken about it so many times but we need that as well to go into the uh the network to Future proof ethereum scalability for I guess I don't know how long it would future proof us for it just depends on the kind of demand that we get and the kind of applications that get built but it does give us a you know at least a one to two years I would say at least and it shifts the scalability to uh to layer twos from there so layer twos will have a lot of the work that they're doing on their own to upgrade their own

networks and that would feed into the upgrades they get from 4844 as well all right so ethereum pools.info put out another great tweet through today uh they said some research on ethereum multi-block Mev How likely is uh is it for a pool controlling uh P percent of the validators to propose K conservative blocks in an Epoch so IE Kraken Pros five consecutive blocks once uh a month on average but don't trust the random tweet more info so there's a thread here about this and and I like where they said but basically uh sorry I like the the table that they've got here where they show what the chances are and I've spoken about multi-block Mev before as you guys know in proof of stake uh the next block proposal proposer is known so

everyone on the network or everyone viewing the network can know who the next proposer is and if you know that you're going to propose consecutive blocks well then you can do multi-block Mev so for example within an Epoch all 32 block proposes are known and advanced and this is new improve of stake and enables new ways of Mev of course such as manipulating uh t-wop or time weighted average um price oracles now if you are a coinbase or a kraken or someone some entity that has a lot of stake and say you see within those 32 block proposes that you have a window where you are the next five block proposers well you could technically uh come up with a strategy that takes advantage of that with multi-block Mev and essentially you can control uh which

transactions go into which blocks in those five blocks in order to get the most Mev profit possible out of that now in practice we haven't seen this yet uh This Thread goes through that which you can I'll link it in each description below for you to check out in practice we haven't seen any of this right now and it you have to be quite a large entity to actually con uh to to actually uh propose blocks like that consecutively I mean you basically have to be one of the top ones here coinbase Kraken or binance and then after that it's kind of very hard because Lido even though Lido has 30 of the network or a little bit under 30 actually right now The Operators are who are proposing the blocks Lido themselves isn't a monolithic operator they have those 28 29 I think it's actually up to 30 now

operators that are proposing the block so unless they collude to do something uh because these these operators are independent unless they collude it's not going to happen under Lido but when it is a single entity like coinbase Kraken binance and a few of the others on this list then of course it becomes more of an issue but in saying that like we only at the start of a potential multi-block Mev world and I don't think there's many people out there who actually know what strategies to run in order to do this and you can imagine if a coinbase or a kraken or a binance starts doing this they're going to get publicly shamed for it and maybe they're going to lose stake so maybe it's actually in their best interest to not do any multi-block Mev even though the profits would be larger and just uh because that could

potentially lead to an outflow of each stake on their platform and then obviously less fees for The Ether they already have stake with them and that could net out to actually a negative and the negative press would be pretty bad for them as well so there are things here that prevent them from doing this but we shouldn't just rely on that and that's why we're obviously working a lot of ways to minimize Mev as much as possible and we're obviously working on ssle so that you basically don't know who the next blocker process are going to be uh in in the beacon chain which is very important I guess not just for Mev but also for dos risks so for example if you know that uh binance Kraken coinbase or whatever are going to propose you know the next block or the next X amount

of blocks you can potentially dos them and prevent them from doing that so there's griefing attacks and things like that obviously it's it's quite difficult but still we wanna the way we are operating ethereum is we always think of like the worst case scenarios and build around that that's the strength of ethereum is that and that's why things take so long is because we don't want to just settle for the maybe scenario right we want to settle for the okay this is the worst case scenario and this you know there's 100 chance of this happening how do we prepare for it because at the end of the day even if the chance of it happening is basically zero percent it doesn't matter we need to go in with the assumption that there is 100 chance of this happening at some point in the next you know 10 20 100

years like ethereum is trying to build itself to be a network that is resilient for centuries for thousands of years potentially right like that that is literally what we're building ethereum as a network that is resilient for that long and in that world we have to consider all of these possibilities and uh I work to to minimize the risk of them happening or to eliminate them all together so that's what I've always loved about ethereum and I think that we've still got that ethos and we're still building with that in mind uh and I don't think that's going to change I really do think that everyone on the core protocol side of things understands this and wants to build for that so that's really promising but I'll link this uh ethereum pulls that info thread in the YouTube description below and you can go check that one out

all right so speaking of ethereum core development Francesco here has published a new post on the eth Research Forum called view merge as a replacement for proposal boost now this is a long and Technical post here but you may be familiar with proposal boost which was basically one of those fixes that was put in place in order to prevent manipulation of the fork Choice rule of ethereum and cause the chain to kind of like split up and things like that so this is a proposal called view merge that would replace proposal boost and it seems pretty promising from my reading this thread does a does a good job of breaking it down and how it all works but I just wanted to put it on your radar because I think it's very important because proposal Bruce was like more of a Band-Aid solution than a

permanent one and if we can come up with better Solutions then definitely we want to get them into the network so I'll link this in the YouTube description below for you to check out all right uh and La no no this is this this is different this isn't called protocol work so I came across this project today called I mean I'm going to butcher the pronunciation here it's called arcticium actisium I think it's I think that's how you say it which is a fully on chain and permissionless P2P nft Marketplace on Stark net and now they're live on the stock net girly test net so you can check out their 101 article here to learn all about what they're building uh but yeah as I said I just came across this project today I don't know much about it I can't vouch for it or anything like that but I just

wanted to put it on your radar because it's another project that's gone live on stocknet uh and is obviously live on the test net right now but we'll hopefully be live on mainnet sooner rather than later so I'll link this in the YouTube description and you can go check it out right so Aztec announced today that they've recently made an upgrade to the Aztec platform that removes a layer of trust from the Aztec core team which is the subsidy contract so now it allows any party to fund subsidies for bridge transactions and bootstrap volume on Aztec take for example a bridge that supports 50 unit transaction batches think of it like a bus with 50 seats which only departs for its destination once the bus is full on any given day three things could happen all 50 seats get filled in the bus leaves yay not all

50 seats get filled and people wait for a bit before the rest of the seats get filled or someone at some point gets sick of waiting and pays for the whole bus to go down to ethereum and execute there's someone in three scenarios could be an individual the bus service itself and the bus service itself protocols who want their Bridges to be performing even before Airbus seats are selling out can subsidize regular departures ensuring timely performance so uh previously Aztec did this did these subsidies for people but now it seems that a contract has been deployed that allows any eoa which is just in a normal ethereum address or contract account to subsidize Bridge contracts under a certain set of parameters Bridge ID subsidy amount committed and Bridge contract backstop so you can read the thread for full details on this but this is very cool I've talked about this

before I think I haven't talked about in a little while now but basically this thing where we would have uh teams and projects subsidizing people to bridge into layer twos from layer 1. obviously these days it's not as important because layer 1 fees are quite low but as I said before let we expect layer one fees to go up again so when when that happens the subsidies are going to be even more important now we obviously don't want to just limit this to the teams themselves having to do the subsidies but anyone can do it and anyone could do it for any reason I would imagine that projects on these networks would want to do it to encourage users to onboard to their project and subsidy through through that way uh but as as Tech said here anyone can do this with their um with their

with their tool sorry with the contracts that they've deployed now I hope to see this on not just Aztec but all the other layer 2 networks out there uh I hope to see some centralized exchanges doing this that'd be really cool not sure what they would get out of that maybe they do it and then kind of take a cut if someone uses a default protocol because they have like a front end for it I'm not sure what it would look like in practice but they could do it for their users so but they would want to obviously even be making money out of it because subsidizing means they're at a net loss if they're not making money out of it in some way but the layer 2s are definitely motivated to get people onto the ecosystem because in the long run it makes them money it's kind of like how

PayPal originally did that thing where they gave I can't remember the exact amount it was like 10 or 15 dollars to all people that signed up for a new account and it's kind of like how Banks do teaser rates and things like that so that's just to get customers in the door and obviously you don't expect 100 of the customers to stick around but the percentage that do stick around makeup for the ones that don't over the lifetime of their usage of the platform so that the same is true for D5 apps layer twos whoever it is subsidies can work if done correctly all right so an announcement here from eth.limo today so the east.limo ens Gateway now supports our weave and ipfs small swarm content hashes users can now utilize every ens compatible storage layer ipfs ipns swarm Skynet and rweave

this is very cool I uh I think obviously this is much more important these days than it's been in the past especially in the age of the ofak sanctions on tornado cache and also these other regulatory things that have been coming down the pipeline lately uh so yeah I I always want to encourage projects that are doing this because at the end of the day every front end on in D5 should be on these platforms should be on one of these platforms at least to fight off against any centralization concern so a great job here from eth.limir today all right our last stop here before I go into a bullish rant so you guys are going to be excited about this one uh just a shout out to uh Heath Global here who was doing an optimism Summit which has been I believe it's already finished

uh that you can go uh view uh on but uh there's a lot of uh uh people talking as part of this Summit or people that did talk as part of this Summit around all things optimism but also ethereum layer one uh the modular op Stark everything around that so I just wanted to give a shout out to this you guys can go give it a view I'll link it in the YouTube description below but finally to end off today's episode and to get you bullish into the weekend I have a tweet thread that I put out just before talking about a week since the merge uh and how that's affected issuance so it's been a little over a week since the merge right if ethereum was still on proof of work the supply of eth would have gone up by about a hundred thousand and this is

factoring in the burn as well but because we're obviously on proof of stake the supply of eth has only gone up by 5 000. this is a 95 reduction in net eBay issuance obviously including the burn as I mentioned that is more than the triple Harmony because the triple harboring only ever accounted for the block reward issue it's all the protocol issuance I should say it didn't in fact they're in the burn now this is a 95 reduction with the burn being not deflationary because the gas fees are so low right but this is huge like not even like think about that for a second 95 right that's a massive reduction now in further tweets I put numbers to this right dollar numbers to this so I said we can extrapolate this out to a Year's worth of issuance remember this is only

one week so I did I did a naive math on this and I just times it by 52 weeks it would have been 5.2 million each underproof of work in a year it's only 260 000 eth under proof of stake again this is including the burn in dollar terms at the current price that is seven billion dollars under proof of work and only 350 million dollars on the proof of stake and again this is over a year period guys like this is this is absolutely massive the reduction especially when you put a dollar you to it if we want to go to the all-time high and put a dollar value to it well what we would need to do is we would go 5.2 million I didn't do this before but I'll just do it quickly now times five thousand dollars which is around the

all-time high that was 26 billion dollars a year of proof of work issuance that was needed to be eaten up just to keep the price at uh flat basically you know just to hit the price flat we needed even more than that for the price to go up right now let's do that at five thousand dollars in a proof of uh stake world of 260 000 times 5 000 that's only one billion 300 million so 1.3 billion as opposed to 26 billion right massive massive reduction there now I went on and continued and I said I'm going to make you even more bullish most of that proof of work issuance was probably dumped by miners since they had to cover operating costs and it definitely was I mean it's not a probably I don't know why I use the word probably there it definitely was dumped by miners to cover

that those operating costs but on top of the operating costs they also want to take profit for themselves right like it's not just the oh I'm a miner I'm just going to pay for my operating costs and then keep the keep the rest of the eighth forever no they're gonna sell it for profit and some miners even held on to it to stake it which is even better but most of the proof of stake issuance after taxes will probably be held restaged since operating costs are significantly lower than proof of work and I've talked about these Lots on the refill before you guys know all about this and then I said in the last tweet once the market hits up again an average gas prices are back at only 15 gray plus because that's the current ultrasound barrier the issuance will be net negative of course as more if you stake

the higher gas price we need to keep each deflationary but more eighth steak is good for the price as well so and you get where I'm going with that right I've gone through this before but there is such a beautiful feedback loop here with uh the way the entire ethereum monetary policy works I don't think we're perfect yet I do think that obviously the merge and 1559 are the core pieces of its monetary policy they're probably there's probably going to be some tweaks to it in the future specifically around things like capping the maximum amount of active validators on the network at once so aka the maximum amount of E30 staked uh actively on the network at once that's been talked about I mentioned it before uh and then I think there's one other thing that I'm forgetting right

now uh but as it currently stands this is just stupidly insane now you want if you want to compare this to something like Bitcoin right we can go back to our favorite site moneyprinter.info which I've got which I've talked about before so moneyprints.info I believe factors in the burn as well here uh and oh man if you're uh yeah ethereum's not on this at the moment damn okay I I saw it the other day so I can I can say what it is so we can look at the issuance of um of Bitcoin right now daily issuance 17.6 million dollars is issued to miners which has to be sold then we can look at Solana 3.2 million dollars it's not issue to minus issued to stakers but still it's it's quite a lot but

Avalanche 1.1 million and these salon and Avalanche both have much lower market caps than than um than Bitcoin and ethereum as well right so if you kind of factor that into it as well it's actually on a market cap basis a lot of issuance uh and then I think eighth fell actually under Dogecoin Dogecoin is currently paying 800 000 a day to secure its Network now I think uh ethereum was just under 800 000 including the burn at around 0.17 issuance rate that is insane like I mean that is a crazy amount that's like 20 times less than Bitcoin guys and so I know people have looked at the price recently especially the eat BDC ratio and thought to themselves well if it's so bullish

why did each BTC go down because short term is irrelevant short term is always dictated by uh short-term narratives and Traders the medium to long term is where you're going to see the effects of this issue introduction play out and I've gone through this plenty of times before and I sound like a broken record at this point but you're going to see it play out over the longer term I I I'm not going to promise you that I'm not going to guarantee you that but I truly do believe that these flow changes are going to have an absolutely massive impact in demand periods because instead of requiring 26 billion dollars a year right if it was five thousand dollars to secure uh the um the the sorry to uh to uh to to make up for the minor dumping we would need a considerable a little

less amount of that so just naturally because of that each should trade lighter like I mean the math adds up right this isn't and and the logic adds up this is not something where I'm living in fantasy land and I'm making up fantasy things if the demand is there like imagine if the demand was I think I mentioned this yesterday it demand the demand doesn't even have to be anywhere near the same as it was during uh last year or the year before uh well I guess probably last year is better um it can be less than it was then and he should trade light up just based on that massive change in the flows there so hopefully that little rat there has made you bullish uh into the weekend I know I am I mean you guys know I'm still buying eth like especially at these

prices where I feel like it's uh it's it's a bargain bin prices can it go lower of course it can the macro environment's still really shitty we don't know what's going to happen uh with inflation and the fed and things like that everyone has their own opinion on it my personal opinion is is generally that I think we're over the worst of it just from what I can see but I'm not a macro expert I've got absolutely no idea when it comes to that sort of stuff but from what I've read in the experts that I have read read and from what I'm saying it does seem like we're over the worst of both inflation at least in the US and also uh the I guess shock from the rates going up I think everyone expects the rates to go up for a little bit now I don't think

anyone expects any shock rate Rises unless inflation is still really high but from what I've seen the next month's inflation numbers in the US should be uh less than than last months in the months before and the trend is still down on it as well but as I said not an expert on macro environment uh and because of that I actually don't really think about that too much when it comes to my age purchases I purchase eth or like crypto generally on a relative basis to where it is I think right now as I mentioned plenty of times the market and just crypto in general is in the period that we were in in 2019 where everything's dead sentiments in the are everyone's just like accepted the reality of the situation but I think in those situations lies the most opportunity just like when I was selling

stuff last year I was thinking to myself um well okay like the market stupid right now the amount of money coming in but the amount of money that needs to keep coming in to keep the prices up at these sustained levels not just for proof of work coins but all these other coins that were vesting out all these tokens uh when I did the math on that I was just like okay this is absolutely crazy sentiment was crazy uh it felt like everyone was getting rich like in those kind of scenarios if you've been around for three Cycles now like I have you look at that and you're like okay I get why people get kind of caught up in this but I've been to this before so I'm gonna rely on my past self lessons to apply that to Future to the Future me

and to the current me and make sure I play defensively here don't feel bad if you don't know how to do that especially if you've only been in it for one cycle as I've said to you guys before in 2013 was my first cycle I traded away most of the Bitcoin that I bought and then I sold in 2014 during the bear Market because I was a noob like I had no idea what I was doing I'm pretty sure uh if I remember correctly I lost like 90 of what I put in during that time just over trading and then selling it at a loss and just doing all sorts of stupid stuff and then my second cycle was the 2017 one I learned from the lessons of 2013.

my biggest lesson was not to leave during the bear market and then this cycle was where I got most of the reward from from my time in crypto uh and as like that's a long time guys it's like eight years right not eight nine years since then that I've had to learn those lessons so I think that you have to learn it yourself no one can really teach you those sorts of things you can learn from other people but there's a difference between knowledge and wisdom wisdom is definitely uh based on experiences knowledge is just based on obviously me telling you this and other people telling you this and telling that basically they're telling you their experiences but unless you've experienced it yourself there's a very big disconnect there so I know that there is a mix of people who watch the show listen to the show you're maybe a

long term you know two to three Cycles maybe you've only been through one whatever you are like this it's always the same story there are bare periods there are bull periods you just need to know how to handle each of them regardless of the amount of money you have put into crypto or the amount of money you've made from crypto it doesn't matter like that's actually shouldn't factor into it at all what factors into it is knowing how to handle the cycles and knowing how to profit from them but I'm not giving trading investment advice on this channel all I'm trying to do is say that you need to stick around you need to learn for yourself you need to think for yourself and you need to be prepared for a variety of different outcomes and it never hurts to take profit guys like honestly I know it

might be hard during bull markets to do that I know that you may regret it because the price is going up but the bigger regret is not taking any profit and then losing because maybe you get scared in a bear market and sell and you're like holy like everything seems really really bad right now I've got to sell sell sell right like I've been through this I know how that feels it's not a good feeling so just that a little bit of a little bit of advice going into the weekend a little bit of bullishness on eth going into the weekend but on that note that's going to be it for today so thank everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all in next week thanks

everyone