Is the bull market over? Kyle Reidhead on the pullback and Trump's economic plan

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milk Road show The Daily crypto show for people who hear CPI print and immediately check crypto prices I'm your host Jay Hamilton it's Wednesday March the 12th and we are Live on YouTube and on Twitter if you guys are here give me a what's up in the comments great to have you guys surviving through these difficult days now this week is all about answering one simple question on the show are we in a bull market or are we in a bare Market and where do we go from here Monday we talked about the 9 to 12mth bear case with Michael natu from the defi report yesterday we had Felix Jovin from blockworks on the show where we talked

about his shortterm three to four month macro bease and today we've got Kyle reidhead head of research at milroad Pro and co-owner of milk road to give us his take on where we are in the cycle now here's what you're going to notice there is no consensus that's because right now we're in a period of unprecedented Market uncertainty a lot of it being caused by Trump and the change in regime in the US economy as he takes his next term now more than ever now is the most important time to LIF listen to different perspectives it's also very important that everybody knows everyone we talk to is still long-term bullish we're still got a long way to go

folks so please please please stick with me now is when people rage quit when they leave don't make that mistake stick around because no matter what whether it's in a few months or whether it's in 12 months we are going to have another bull cycle so no one said getting rich was going to be easy don't leave guys stick around we're going to make it together and if you need some support during this time we got a telegram group where you can speak to me directly every day and the rest of our team so hit the link in the show notes to join our telegram group today's episode is brought to you by definitive advanced trading on every chain and coin shift powering TR top crypto treasuries with their yield bearing stable coin CS usdl without further Ado Kyle welcome to the

show what's going on Jay how you doing today yeah I'm doing well you know it's uh it's it's it's one of those weeks where we we're all surviving uh let's let's Jump Right In in your view are we in a bull market or a bare Market uh I mean we're definitely in a bull market if you want to talk about like the technicals of it uh it it's there's like it's not clear what even a bare Market or bull market is in the equities Market it kind of is like I think a 20% pullback is considered a bare Market we're not there in equities so like technically technically we're not in a in a in a bare Market in crypto we don't really have uh an exact amount

a 20% pullback in crypto happens like every day and so like we can't count that as a bare Market I think though um in general when people think of what a bare Market is in crypto it's these things that we have typically every four or so years where it's like 12 months of price goes down and down down for 12 months straight right like that is the when I speak of bare Market that's what I'm speaking of um and no I don't think that we're in that right now and I don't think we're going into that um but I think we've got to just be clear on what a bare Market is because some people will say like oh you know growth is down to whatever and so that means we're in a bare Market we're in a recession right but like it just like it's these

technical terms and so ultimately I don't think we're going to 12 months of down only um where not only does price go down but people start leaving the industry and things collapse and we fall apart and no one talks about C again like that's not happening right now I don't think we're in the 2022 scenario or the 2018 scenario or the 20 whatever that was 14 or 15 scenario um I don't see that as as what we're we're in right now or what we're heading into okay let's take a look at uh some of the charts because as you said using the uh term bull or bar Market might be a mislead a bit difficult to understand exactly what it's meant because people might mean different definitions when we look at the charts

what are you seeing right now when you look at where we're headed in and where we are right now well well let's start here let's kind of like pull back just a little bit and I think in times like this when prices go down a lot there's as you said at the beginning chaos and uncertain in markets people stress out anxiety kicks in emotions kind of take over we do stupid stuff and in those type of moments whether it's in markets or anything else the best thing you can do is kind of understand like why are we here what happened why am I having this moment of anxiety why are markets in chaos and so like let's kind of like bring the tape back a little bit and just first look into like what brought us to this moment that we're in right

now because I think that'll give a little bit of clarity to everybody and so um I want to date back to December December 7th we put out a pro report uh I think I might have came on the podcast too and said this but we said we think a 30% pullback is near and the reason why we said this had nothing really to do with crypto although at the time like things were getting pretty euphoric I would say uh and sentiment was a little bit crazy so you could you could have also said it from that but the real reason we said it is we had a a pullback a pretty major pullback in global liquidity um and at the same time the dollar was extremely high coming off Trump winning the election I think it was up to like what was it 111 or 113 or

something um rates were and still are too high inflation had been steadily Rising um you know growth remained pretty strong at the same time and then unemployment was like not terrible still fairly stable and so the Fed was in a place where they couldn't really lower rates right and they didn't need to lower rates they could do whatever they want but they didn't need to and so in our opinion even though all that happened prices continued to go up and Bitcoin ran from what was it 70k or something all the way up to uh to like 10 and close to 10K right in that time frame so during November during December and we're like well this doesn't make sense the macro isn't saying that we should be in this price goes up but it

was all about the hype of um of trump winning the election so it wasn't real price appreciation right it was um what did Felix call it yesterday Animal Spirits right U or maybe that was Michael it was it was animal spirits that brought us there and so we were like okay we need to reset so interestingly uh today we sit at exactly a 30% pullback from when we wrote that report and sent out that message now to be clear the world looks a little bit different than what we were expecting when we said a 30% pullback would come um but also interestingly I'm very surprised that after all of what's Happening we're only at a 30% pullback in in Bitcoin that means actually it's holding up quite strong right the NASDAQ

is only what is it 10% or something right now so like overall like I know there's a lot of chaos and there's a lot of just like uncertainty in the markets but like ultimately this is kind of what we expected just with a lot of chaos on Twitter and in the news and in these crazy headlines that make it feel so much worse and so much harder than it is but like in December when things weren't that bad we said hey we expect 30% pullback here in Bitcoin now I know that a lot of people hold altcoins and other things that are down way worse ethereum's down what 50 50% maybe a little bit more salana is down 60 something percent um from its like extra high that it got because of trump so like things feel worse but actually like it's kind of really not as bad as it

seems now it could get worse right um Michael's episode on Monday was really good his bare Market thesis uh and so like I'm not saying that we are out of this whole situation um but this is kind of what was expected though there's just a little bit more like flash that's been added on because of trump and the administration so I'll start there and then I can get into why I think that's all happening or what's going on I don't know if you have any other questions or clarifications on that real quick no I think so TLD drr if I can do this to you this early in the show because this is my job to wrap things and summarize you think we're in a a pullback slash maybe short bear is that kind of if I could it yeah let's get to it first show show the

um the charts you were about to show I just want to walk people through here's what we were saying uh and here's where we sit today so at the time in December we said okay liquidity has pulled back and that did from basically when we wrote that look it pulled back you can see it in the um in the green here up on the screen it pulled back all the way and then and this is by the way a um a three-month lead I believe yeah three-month lead and now global quood is starting to rise again okay and so we've sort of already priced in that liquidity pullback and now okay what happens next well liquidity is on on its rise which is exactly what we thought might happen if we go to the next one the dollar which I said was way too high well as

you guys know over the last week or two weeks it's had one of its fastest draw Downs in recent history uh and it now sits at around 103 uh and so a huge huge loosing of financial conditions as a result of that likely still has some ways to go if we go to the next one um we have the the 10-year treasury yield this is basically this is interest rates this is the the market around rates though not the the FED fund rates but the market around those rates you know on a longer time frame uh and that is still quite High um but at the time when we said this it was sitting at five and that is extremely high and this is the key chart to to remember here because I'm going to talk about this a lot in just a second as we go into what happens

next it is down to 4.2 so it's it's lower but still needs to go much lower to to really get to the other side of of of what I'm thinking here and then the last one is we talk about inflation a print came out today we were lower than expectations which is great so we hit 2.8% CPI it was meant to be or expected was 2.9% and and core was also down so like not what we wanted but like I mean it's what we wanted it's slower we want it to be much more if we look at true inflation which is more live data uh a lot of this is because of tffs and things and and the chaos that's gone on markets inflation is absolutely tanked and so I I expect March um which is again looking in in the CPI numbers we're always looking backwards so we're

looking back so those are the numbers of January that we got today uh or sorry of February that we got today and then the next ones that we get will be of March right so we're always a month or so behind legging whereas true inflation is live so I I prefer that data point so inflation is you know according to inflation uh much much lower so all the things we kind of said we wanted to see and all the reasons that were causing this pullback in the first place are beginning to to get fixed let's call it but we're not quite there just yet and so to answer your question um I don't see that we are going into a 12-month long bare Market um I think that this is short-term pain which is exactly what Trump has been calling this inv bested

as we call this short-term pain for long-term gain I'll get into what's going on there in just a second but ultimately I think we needed to go through this um and I know this one feels harder and it feels worse um and and Trump is definitely adding more let's say fire or gasoline to the fire but ultimately I think that's actually a good thing for the long term and so this thes is talked about of maybe an extended cycle or as Felix said maybe it's just not a cycle anymore right we've kind of grown up in terms of crypto I I we talked about this um it'll come out on Saturday's podcast but the the Dynamics of this crypto industry are really changing and what we remember from back in the days we really have to think differently in terms of the metrics we look at in terms of the like

historical performance things are really changing now um and and I think we're starting to see that and so I think this either extended cycle or just maybe we stop using the word cycle makes a lot of sense here but I I do think by the end of this year we're much higher than we are today and and very likely much higher than we were um when we started to pull back in December okay okay let's uh as you mentioned what is causing so much of this is Trump and the shift that the new the new office his new cabinet is taking from the Biden Administration a big shift from a regulation-based economy and an economy that was really pumped up

by government spending to an economy that is led by the business cycle and by private markets let's talk about what is Trump's master plan is he is he causing this does he want this pullback let's get into that so so first of all I would say I don't actually think Trump is the big cause of this I actually think it's just the global liquidity right that dip and we expected a 30% we got about like 20 something per and then the chaos ensued over the last two weeks and we got an extra like 8% right to bring us to the 30 that we're at now now maybe we we continue to go lower we'll talk about that in a second uh so like ultimately you know probably like 60 70 80% of this pullback is just liquidity and then it's just been added

on an extra 20% or so in terms of the whole the whole share of this pullback from Trump in the chaos um and so like I know everyone's kind of like Kur fluffed let's call it right now with what Trump is doing I don't know that that's the big reason for this pullback the pullback was already expected because of liquidity as we showed on that chart there this is just adding a little bit of fuel to the fire but it's not the main cause in my opinion um now that being said things may get worse and that's likely due to Trump uh and and not just Trump let's call it the Trump Administration this isn't Trump's master plan it is his whole team of very very smart individuals like Scott bessin on the treasury side um it is their plan and I know that sounds weird that it is

their plan to tank the markets but hear me out here there is a reason why they're doing this I believe and it's actually very good for the people of the United States and so we as much as we're mad at him right now for what he's doing I think there is actually a rhyme a reason to it and I think it's actually quite smart so the big thing to understand is that when Trump took office in January um he had a very big problem that he had to deal with from the previous administration and not just previous administration from his previous uh tenure as well um we have a ton of debt in the United States and unfortunately in 2025 uh something like a third of it or something close to that anyway 9.2 trillion is is the the actual value has to be refinanced this year and even more

unfortunately about 70% of that I think around s trillion has to be refinanced in the first six months of 2025 okay so7 trillion do they have to refinance and as I just mentioned back in late December early January the the the 10e was sitting at 5% okay they cannot refinance $7 trillion at 5% that would be suicide for the US economy okay and and for this debt spiral so they really really really need rates to come down okay and in fact here's the up on the screen here we have the average interest rate on the treasury debt which is uh lower than three point around 3.5% if we were to refinance at five this much this would

go up so high and our interest payments we already can't afford they are going to just accelerate at such a fast rate if we were to do this so the the option here is we just refinance at high interest rates and just say screw it and deal with this in a year or two years or a few years down the road uh but that's going to be a really big problem and so the other thing we can do here is well let's try and get rates down now the problem as I just mentioned at the beginning of this episode is the Fed doesn't need to lower rates remember the fed and the treasury as much as I think Felix was saying Trump and and um and pal go for lunch every day or sorry every week they are not the same entity If the Fed was just part of the US

government they would just Lo rates refinance and then raise them again but they are separate entities technically but of course there's there's probably a lot of things going on in the back end together but ultimately the fed's job is to maintain inflation and to maintain unemployment and at this point and and in Hope for growth in US economy right but at this point all that was kind of good growth was strong inflation wasn't too bad uh and is actually beginning to rise which means that they really probably shouldn't lower rates unemployment was not at obscene numbers so like again they didn't need to lower rates and in fact they probably shouldn't lower rates where that environment was and so Trump can't just call up best or Pal story and say hey lower rates we got to refinance so what

did he what can he do well force a recession tin cap tin foil cap time okay conspiracy time what what's Trump doing call this a conspiracy Call It Whatever it is but like if I'm sitting in Trump's seat and I'm like I cannot refinance this at this price and I can't get the Fed lower rates well what can I do I could probably lower the tenear I could probably lower the dollar I can probably take inflation how do I do that a recession now do I really think Trump's going to force us into recession no that would be a terrible idea there's no way they're thinking that but can they do a fake out here can they make recession expectations really come up can they create a growth scare absolutely they can it's actually not that difficult it's all part of their original plan anyway right like if I

were Trump and I wanted to create a growth scare or a recession let's say he's going to force us into a full recession which I really don't what would I do well I'd release the hounds AKA Elon Musk and Doge to go and fire tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of people right and while he's doing that I would tweet out and say hey guys Elon you're doing a great job you've already fired 100,000 people at the in the federal uh government you got to do more though you need to do more what do you think that's going to do to unemployment Skyrocket right of course it's going to Skyrocket unemployment what does that do for the FED makes them have more leverage to lower rates right it also slows down growth it slows down inflation right so even if the FED doesn't do anything it does all the

other things that they need right okay so there's one thing what's the second thing I would do slap a bunch of tariffs on the economy slap a bunch of tariffs on their like main trade Partners cause a global trade War now look whether this is all part of his master plan to lower rates or not I'm not sure because there's also a case to be made that tariffs are actually really good if you want a for America like America First economy um when you throw tariffs on I don't know whatever you want to say like washing machines or steel or like whatever it is ultimately what that does in the long term is actually brings more um creation or manufacturing of those things in the US so you don't have to pay the the um uh the tariffs and there's there's precedent of this this

happened last time Trump took over uh there was a bunch of the things that he put tariffs on where they just ended up building it in the US instead right so like maybe this is just long-term strategy for America first but also what's the impact of this rate away a growth scare right inflation going down potentially there's fears that it might also go up um and tanking the dollar because it looks bad on the US that's kind of what he might want to actually happen here right then if I think of a third one there was that battle with him and zilinsky on on national TV look Trump we know is a bit of a loose cannon so maybe that just happened or maybe he wanted some geopolitical uncertainty to be put out in the media and do that public so that we go into a riskof

environment I think Felix talked about this one of the best things we can do to lower inflation to lower growth uh to lower the dollar is to tank the stock market right uh and what's the thing that Trump keeps saying and best keep saying I'm not even paying attention to the stock market right now don't even care by the way Jay you're doing a perfect job at nailing these headlines as I'm speaking thanks I don't know how you're doing that but nailing it uh so for those watching right now like you should be enjoying this this is a master class uh so you can hear Trump saying hey I'm not even looking at the stock market right you can hear bessent saying uh we got to do a detox for the market right we're in the Biden economy and it's going to take six months to get into the

Trump economy right uh and so you know six months from dece or sorry from January when they took over well that's June that's a couple months from today right so what I kind of think is happening and call it a conspiracy don't call it a conspiracy whatever whatever they're doing whether it's chaos and he doesn't know what he's doing or this is all planned doesn't really matter because it's working because growth is absolutely plummeting or at least the expectations of growth are plummeting the dollar has just tanked right rates are starting to come down inflation as we saw as a result of all that beginning to come down so like whether conspiracy or not the things he's doing are actually kind of working I mean if you've seen the amount of layoffs the spike that we had was as big as we had in um almost like in ' 08 and and and

you know not as big as obviously covid but like we're seeing a massive spike in layoffs recently and and these are really around the government I think and so ultimately like I think the plan kind of is working here um because what does this mean if I think about um what's happening here they are basically resetting the business cycle in the middle of the business cycle which like is very weird and very odd as you guys know we we um we base our thesis around the the business cycle right a big part of our investments and things is around the business cycle kind of um going up the global liquidity going up and somehow in the middle of the all they're almost resetting it saying okay we're

going to bring inflation back down we're going to bring growth back down um and uh looks like Jay has gotten kicked out of this call um so someone in the chat let me know if you can still hear me uh and if Jay's gone or what's going on because if so I'll just I'll just keep talking until he comes back but if you guys in the chat can let me know um that would be great Kyle you JX me man you you comp complimented me in my my internet crashed I was wondering what was going on there holy jeez I'm back you're back all good I just noticed anyway basically what I talked about is that it feels like they've reset the business cycle kind of in the m in the middle of the

business cycle um which to me means As Trump has said and Bess has said short-term pain right we're going to reset this business cycle here um but ultimately long-term gain here because think about this the last time we started from the low of the business cycle right meaning the LA and I don't mean a full reset of the business cycle okay um so like don't use that word like exactly but essentially you know typically when you have growth going down when you have inflation going down uh when you have the dollar going down all these things it's at the beginning of of of the the the business cycle the last time we had that Bitcoin was at 20K now we're basically trying to like do that really quick here they're trying to get this grow scare to kind of almost

reset the business cycle and Bitcoin sitting at what 80k maybe we go down to 70k and so now we're going to get a full other almost bull market let's call it with potential for liquidity and the ism to pick up and growth to pick up and rates to come down and yet we're doing it at the base of Bitcoin at 70,000 instead of the base of Bitcoin at 20,000 to me I'm like holy this is actually a really good opportunity and maybe even a better scenario than what we originally had right we originally were like okay we're you know more than halfway through this cycle we've got a little bit left here maybe by Q4 it's over maybe we stretch into to 2026 and and so it's like okay Bitcoin can go to what did we say like 150 and

whatever but now all of a sudden I'm like okay well what happens when we almost reset and restart things from 70k right instead of 20K to me this is actually quite interesting and like maybe this means we extend this cycle or let's call it this bull market much longer into 2026 which would make sense because what Trump is trying to do is fix the economy now go through the pain now so that things are good for the midterms and maybe good for the rest of his presidency right um and so like I actually see this as a bit of a uh like things are greener on the other side here and and maybe we actually get a better bull market because the other thing to add to this is if we do extend here and like we start to pick up second

half of this year and even more into next year well that also gives more time for the new regulations to come into practice for institutions to start launching and and buying allocating like we were sort of racing between bull market ending end of this year and hoping to get regulations in in time and it was looking like well we probably won't get all that until the bare Market starts and now I'm like well wait a minute we might get all that at the same time so what does that mean for this bull market and so I actually as I think through this like look don't get me wrong there's still some pain here but I actually think maybe this is actually a really good scenario if it all works out look if this chaotic situation that Trump is doing does lead us into recession these assets are going much

lower that's for sure but right now we're kind of holding fairly strong here um and so we'll have to see how things play out but ultimately I don't think this is going to be a 12mon situation I think it's going to be fairly short um and then we'll kind of see where things go from there the other thing to keep in mind here is markets are forward-looking right and so have we already priced in this whole situation have we already priced in recession not yet I think we'd have to get down to 20% in the NASDAQ um but like have we already priced in most of it right and will we chop here maybe we'll go a little bit lower and are we waiting as Felix said for Trump to just say Okay green light we're good markets are back we're not detoxing anymore or

will markets actually be forward-looking and price that in ahead of time right oftentimes they do and so um you know if we look at how fast this dip happened it's extremely fast compared to other dips and so I find it hard to believe that we go much much lower here uh and more likely and I don't think it's a v-shape recovery let's say um but again it just feels feel like maybe we've priced in the bulk of this so far okay I love it I love it it's uh it's nice to get a little bit of bullish Vibes on the show this week when we've had so many bearish episodes uh I want to get your take Kai on what where you think the bottom is like is this the bottom do we have further down from here

and then I also want to talk about like how you How do you what do you do with your portfolio like are you buying are you selling how do you navigate these types of like because these are these are when most people make the biggest mistakes but before we do that we just take a moment to hear from our sponsors who make this show possible if you're only trading on centralized exchanges you're not going to make it the best Traders know the alpha is onchain founded by coinbase alums definitive lets you trade any token on salana Bas and every major train all in a single platform what makes thetive different is it's Advanced order types you can execute limit t Po and stop loss completely on chain get the best prices on every chain as your

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to work earning native yield and protocol rewards built by the team behind coin shift which is trusted to manage over 1 billion in business treasuries on chain including a gitcoin and hundreds of leading institutions seey coin shifts new stable coins CS usdl is gaining traction at coin shift at milo.com coin shift all right welcome back to the show everybody Kyle how long is this pain going to last where is the bottom uh the crystal ball that all we wish we all had um look I don't know maybe we've bottomed I would imagine probably not if um I don't know if we have the charts up but where I'm kind of looking at prices is if you're looking

at altcoins right now probably no need right none of those charts make any sense anymore the only one really is I'd look at Bitcoin right still has some good structure to it and I look at the NASDAQ now Bitcoin currently sitting at whatever it is 80k or something right now as we record this um it dropped below its support level at let's say 90 91 and it's kind of just sitting in no man's land right now and so the the next support level for it is like 71 72 like low 70s I wouldn't be shocked if we hit that right now that's not that much lower and so like do you need to go sell everything and be into cash and wait for that like I probably wouldn't because we don't really know if it's going to if it's going to reach that the NASDAQ um

same thing it it's it's it has a support level it's kind of sitting at right now I think it's up on the day at least last I checked um but I think down to like the mid I think it's 1800s or sorry 18, thousands um that's the other one that I'm kind of looking at for its support level if it broke if either the nasda or Bitcoin broke below those one would be an incredible buying opportunity but two would also May make me rethink um my thesis on on bull market or bare Market uh right now we're we're still fairly high above those we need to go another I think it's like five or 10 percent on the NASDAQ uh and then that would be another whatever it is 10 percent or something in Bitcoin maybe a little bit more um and so we haven't hit those I

wouldn't be shocked if we did touch those I would imagine there's a lot of buying support there um but ultimately like who knows especially in a in a in a a scare uh like a grow scare then it's hard to say right um and so so one I think we could go lower uh but I wouldn't be waiting for it right like maybe we're already priced in maybe it's done how long does this take this was a pretty steep collapse and so I think a lot of people got burned which generally means this is going to take a little bit to to get some momentum here um even if good news started happening right now and price started to go up I think you'd have a bunch of people that are ready to sell right and they're just like oh I screwed up I should have sold like and

as it goes up they're going to sell at 90 then they're going to sell at 100 whatever it's like it's going to be a bit of struggle to to get up to to the previous prices right um so I think that's key um and and then ultimately like I don't think we're through all the bad news yet because we don't see rates low enough right we need to see the 10 year 10year go a bit lower into like maybe 3.5 or like into the threes at least and we're not there which means they're probably going to step on the pedal a little bit and try to make things worse now will that happen I'm unsure but I think that's kind of where we're at here and ultimately CPI usually lagging data growth lagging data like remember this isn't all onchain data where you can see it live this is like

every month we got to wait for the the results of these numbers and so it takes a few months for these numbers to come out for the FED to be like oh yeah inflation is down because they don't just read true inflation or oh yeah growth is down like you know what I mean like it takes a bit of time for the numbers to come in and so like maybe it's like two or three months um before we fully bought them or at least just before we get out of the chop right like again maybe we've bought and we're just going to chop around for a little while right um but at this point I'm not loading up on risk I'm not full risk on I think you don't want to be fully risk on yet we want to wait until we get to the other side there's no point in

trying to catch a falling knife um as much as I'm still in the belief that there's a bull market it doesn't mean Michael's uh scenario is wrong right there's just a a chance right and I don't know what that chance is whether it's 70% bull market 30% what Michael's saying or it's somewhere in the middle of that and so like you you don't want to go full risk on and buy dog with hat today right because we think we've bought them that's not the play um I think now is a good time to start dollar cost averaging into stuff if you weren't um back in December I was saying I wouldn't be buying at these prices right now I just don't think it makes sense mainly because I had bought a lot in the early days of the bull market um but if you're someone who was buying up top

there and you have a high cost basis on bitcoin or salana or whatever like now's a pretty good time and now would I throw it all in today probably not I'd probably do this over the the next little bit here the next few months um and maybe you'll get some here at 80 maybe you'll get some down at 70,000 maybe you'll get some at 990,000 like in the end of things like in the grand scheme of things I think all this is a great buying opportunity um if we go below 70 I'm backing up the truck and I'm mortgaging that no I'm kidding I'm not going to do that but like I feel like um those are insane prices if you're getting below 70 in in in the in Bitcoin in Bitcoin okay so one actually one more thing the other reason why I don't think you should be fully

sidelined and I don't think you should be like fully scared and I don't think you should be fully risk on is one probably more chaos to come as I said but two remember that all the things that I just mentioned about Trump they can all flip in a second right like he can stop Elon at any point he wants right and not to mention like at some point elon's the work he's doing is going to sort of fizzle out a little bit right like he's actually not able to fire all these people he just can only make recommendations to Congress to fire them and like the easy ones were the fraud that was happening in the government so like the first you know tens of thousands that that are getting fired here that are just they're not doing anything uh and we're stopping that money like okay those are easy to

let them go but there's a bunch that like he might suggest oh they're not efficient enough and Congress like well too bad we're gonna keep that right like it's not going to be this scenario like he's not going to stop all and fix all the government's problems right but at any point Trump can also say okay on that's enough come back right so that can happen and that would change things pretty quickly he can Al just turn off all the tariffs yesterday he turned on tariffs to Canada like was it doubled them and then turned them off I saw a chart yesterday yeah yeah I saw a chart yesterday it was like I think in history this is the first intraday tariff chart ever and it was like tariffs at this and then tariffs back down here and I like what is going on so remember if he just

turned those off well boom there's a lot of uncertainty that goes out the window there right and we don't have anymore and again I also feel like probably a lot of the geopolitical issues that he's sort of highlighting on national TV probably he can fix that pretty easily too I don't know easily I don't want to say that but like he probably can fix that too and so like at any point where he's like okay all systems go boom all three of those could be fixed in a heartbeat and then what happens to markets so that's why I'm like I don't want to be fully in cash right now but I also don't want to be fully like down the RIS curve at the moment so there's there's a bit of in between you got to be playing for the next let's call it few weeks to few months probably but

again let's just listen to Trump and best they're being pretty transparent with us on what they're doing I was trying to think uh last night uh I was chatting with Sam my wife and telling her I I generally don't talk about markets with her because she just gets scared uh the is because she doesn't follow it every day and so I said I said baby I said markets are taking it's it's it's bad out there and instantly she started to freak out right she's like are we okay like what's going on with her money and I was like why am I so calm because like I'm in it every day and I'm super calm and I'm not having any issues sleeping and what I realized is it's for a couple simple reasons one I'm an inv or not a Trader so timeline wise I'm not concerned about

whether this this pull if if this is a pullback or this is a bear I still believe that we are going to go up from here I don't know if it's in a few months or if it's 12 months but I don't really care because I'm I'm a long-term investor here I'm long on most of my and I'm also mostly in the majors so I don't have that fear of hey this token's never going to come back right which I think is a legitimate fear for some people people that went really far down the risk curve for you Kyle how do you stay calm in these moments what makes you able to sleep well when we see so many people in our community that are struggling right now and are having a difficult time I mean it's it's one is writing

right like before I came on this episode last night I was like okay I'm just going to write out my thesis and so what did I do I just went and researched everything I just looked at the charts I looked at the data and I just try to rationalize it all I think a key thing is one of the one of the problems that happening right now is not only are markets tanking but a lot of people are getting very emotional about what Trump is doing they hate po people get so angry over politics they get so angry over orange man and like people are losing their minds and for me it's like remove your emotions who cares what Trump what you think of trunk Trump who cares what you think of whatever political views none of it matters the markets literally don't care about your

views and the more views and the more emotions you have in it the worse you're going to do and and the more stress this is going to add to you right the other thing is like you got to think about are you an investor or are you a Trader Jay you just said you're an investor and so like this isn't as big of a deal for you right what I find happens with a lot of people and I know this because I used to do this a little bit as well when I first got into investing which is you think you're an investor when times are good when the markets are green you're like I'm an investor I'm longterm I'm never gonna sell this stuff it feels so good we're going to bajala and then the markets tank and all you're like oh I got to sell I got to get out like this

is going to here I got to get out right now and so what does that mean it means all of a sudden you became a Trader right and and here's the worst part about it if you have a chart up on the screen here of December 8th or 7th is is the green there that's when we we told everyone like okay if you know we think there's a pullback coming if you are Trader you would drisk you would sell okay if you're an investor you don't care you might wait on dollar Coss average that month and you might wait and move it to the month after when you when you get the pullback okay but what happens here is now that we've tanked whatever it is 30% everyone's like holy I need to sell I got to get out of the markets and it's like okay well if

you're trying to be a Trader which mean because you're selling now this is the worst time to sell Traders sold up there not down here and so now you're a terrible investor and you're a terrible Trader well that's a losing strategy right so which one are you right if you want to be Traer that's fine we gave you the signal to sell but we said we're investors so we didn't sell right we said hey we're just gonna we're going to keep doing as we do we don't care we're here for the long term and so which one are you because if you're an investor then this is actually a really good opportunity for you to be buying in my opinion over the next few months when I think back um of sort of my story when I first started buying crypto um a few months into it or a little bit into it

all of a sudden we had the covid crash right I was I was in 2019 and then all a sudden the co crash happened early 2020 and Bitcoin went to three grand and eth went to 150 bucks man what a dream right and I was like holy what just happened like everything I had just been buying before that just got cut in 50% in like 3 days and I was still I didn't really have strong conviction this stuff yet and I was like you know what I got to learn what's going on here and I just like locked myself in a room and I studied and I was like screw it I'm going all in here and I just kept buying and I kept buying and I kept buying and uh now I look back and I'm like holy what an amazing opportunity was that was the scariest moment ever for

most people in this world but I just dug in I grabbed I got conviction and I I made sure I was buying assets that like were smart and like had made sense long term and so even during the the bare Market that came which I was was always expecting there was going to be one in 2022 I didn't sell then but again I was holding on to these good assets that I knew like even if we have a bare market I'll buy more of it and it'll go up even more and so like as I said the longer that you hold on to assets the more chance you have of winning and succeeding right the shorter you hold on to assets the more chance you have of losing and failing and losing money right and so again just like in these moments most I've I've said many times

in the show 95% of my portfolio is in majors and so like yeah some of my majors are down really bad coinbase got wrecked you know but I don't care because I know that thing's coming back right I know bitcoin's coming back I know Ethan Sal are coming back so like I'm not overly concerned now if I put all my money into whatever shitcoin back in 2020 when the markets collapsed I might be sitting here telling a whole different story right I might not even be in this industry anymore which is what I think happens to a lot of people so you got to really decide you investor or a Trader and then you got to stick to that during the tough times right because I can tell you right now I have have stuck to it during multiple 50% or more pullbacks whether it's the full

bare Market or the quick pullbacks one thing to remember guys we had a 50% pullback in Bitcoin in 2021 and one in 2020 that was the middle of the bull market and twice we had a 50% pullback in Bitcoin right uh and we have we've only 30% right now and so again I see these at as as opportunities whether I'm right and it's only a three-month pullback and Felix is right around a three-month pullback or I see this as an opportunity even if Michael's right right um because you can just keep buying on the way down and and you got to go longterm because if you didn't sell the top well you missed it but you're not a Trader just think more long term here because again this all makes sense in the long term that this is going to come back yeah I think uh so

just to to highlight you mentioned Michael and Felix Michael's view was that there would be a 9ine to 12 month be Market Felix's view was more of a shortterm uh 3 to four month bear and then a sharp recover is what he thinks is coming um a lot of people asking what are you buying right now uh and what are you thinking about when you look at if you did have cash on the sidelines are you are DCA um how are you setting that up yeah so first I I'm definitely buying um and I'm not going to say which tokens I'm buying right now because I'm gonna leave that for our Pro uh report that comes out on Saturday to our Pro members um and the reason is this whole whole

thesis I just did here was a pro report that's coming out on Saturday and I've kind of front run our Pro members and came out here and did it on on the podcast mainly because I wanted everyone to know this and I wanted Pro members to get this sooner than later so we don't make any mistakes throughout the week but I'm going to keep my tokens that I'm buying and the assets that I'm buying uh until I cost averaging into over this pullback to that so if you're not yet a pro member Go Pro you can get it there now I won't just leave you at that don't worry um but I will tell you this I don't think right now is the time to be bu I see a lot of comments here about different altcoins this is not the time to be buying altcoins guys it is not um

as I said Bitcoin could go down to 70 now that's only a whatever 10% drop further but what do you think that that means for the altcoins okay it means a lot further I know altcoins are down like 60 70 80 90% well they can do it again they can definitely do it again and especially if we did go into a bare market like what Michael's saying there's a good chance some of those most of those don't come back ever right so like should you be loading up on those right now probably not even the ones that we've been bullish on I don't think you should be loading up on those what I think you should be doing is learning which ones you want to get keeping an eye on the charts showing which ones are not really tanking as much as the others which ones actually holding quite strong

and wait for some kind of confirmation wait until we see that we're getting to the other side then you might want to go and buy those now in the mid in the interm rather than buying those I do think it's a good idea to add onto Majors right now right and I do think there is an idea to be dollar cost averaging there for the time being but again doesn't need to happen right away I think you can take a bit of patience here um and kind of sit on it and kind of just do it slowly uh and just see if you can happen to you know if it goes below into the 70s you should be buying for sure um and so I would I'd be doing it patiently and just slowly maybe every week or every every day or whatever you want to do um rather than just a glum

some today yeah don't try to catch a falling knife because who knows where where the bottom is right now uh but as you said you feel pretty good about if we get below 70 Bitcoin in that anything in the 70 below 70 range is like wow immediate buy like that's gonna there's a lot of support at that level yeah and I think the big thing you want to look at guys right now is like keep an eye on liquidity keep an eye on the ism a and keep an eye on on rates right um that's the main thing I'd be keep an eye on right now rates we want to see that go down right if it stays up that might be a bit of a problem it means we're going to need more of a gross care if that starts to come down into the threes

okay they might be done here that might be good for them okay so that's one year i' be looking at the 10 year or obviously looking at the FED if they're going to be cutting rates um of course though if those rates are skyrocketing down because we're in a recession Like You Gotta Be You got to get out right or you just hold through it if you have Majors right um but you definitely don't want to be holding alts in that world so I'm looking at that the ism we want to see that go back up but I imagine it's going to be stuck around where it is now right again we're trying to get literally the ism the business cycle to come back a bit we just passed about 50 we were all excited about that and Trump was like not yet we got to wait so

we're pulling that back down so I would expect another month or two of that maybe staying as is or going a bit lower that would be completely normal completely fine but then by you know let's say June May we want to see that start to go up again if we are that's a really good sign liquidity is the other one I know there's a lot of different takes on liquidity right now Felix and I think Michael had very different takes on it um I do agree with both of them that the fed's not going to give any liquidity here right um we've got to get rates to zero before QE Starts Now one good thing QT is ending quantitative tightening that's very likely ending and so that's good but remember the big thing here right now is the dollar is going down which means China can start

to print and China's economy is crushed right now right and if you remember back to 2017 that bull market the FED did not do QE the Fed was not printing money interest rates were Rising during that bull market it was basically all China and so I think that that can be the case here I know Felix yesterday said he he's not sure they haven't really shown they're going to do it um and uh I don't think they need to show they're going to do it I think they'll do it when they're ready to do it and I think that they're getting ready pretty soon so I actually think I don't know if you have the chart of the comparison of Trump's liquidity from last cycle to to now it's one of the last charts in the Pro report yeah this is one of the ones that we've shown

before and um a lot of people are thinking well this isn't going to happen this time around because Trump doesn't care about this this time around look he doesn't care about markets this time around Trump cares about markets I'm telling you this right now he's bluffing to you right now that he doesn't care about markets because he needs the markets to go down but ultimately I think China and other areas of of the us whether it's through the banking uh or it's through the TGA um or maybe at some point we get some sort of form of QE um probably won't be called QE uh but I think liquidity is coming goes because it it basically has to they still need to refinance $9 trillion that they can't afford right Trump or elon's not going to fix that and so right now base case is this still happens this is still the

Outlook of of liquidity over the next two years which is kind of crazy uh and I know it doesn't seem like it will but like man no one said there was going to be a pullback in liquidity at the end of last year and it happened no one said there was going to be liquidity coming back up and it's happening it's not going to be a straight line up and to the right we'll probably be very um volatile here but again this is still my base casing until I see this break down or reason that it's not going to happen um this is the main thing that I'm really looking at is is liquidity and I think that's what you guys got to keep your your eyes on to tell you when we're going back into risk on uh environment absolutely fantastic Kyle thanks for joining us and uh giving us

all this Alpha and really sharing so much with us today and giving us a nice deep breath of uh hey maybe maybe it's not the Panic that we all have uh maintaining the mental and the emotional side is so difficult during these times I want to know everybody listening in you a bow or you a bear throw in the comments bull or bear let let me know right now I want to see we got more bears or more Bulls right now also uh if you guys want to hang out with Kyle and I in person we are going to be in Toronto at consensus in May May 14 to 16th yeah Kyle's wearing his Toronto hat right now uh it's it's going to be an awesome crypto event I'm actually G to be interviewing Kyle live on stage doing a live episode at that show so if you

guys want to come out and meet us we got a discount for you in the show notes so click that link you can save $350 on your ticket also everybody I this goes without saying I feel like I I should need to say this but this none of this is financial advice this is for informational and educational purposes only all right this not legal advice it's not tax advice it's not Financial advice uh all of our views are our own and we do not pretend to represent professional Financial advice that is not us we're not financial advisers so please take your own judgment do your own research and whatever you do with your money know that there's always risk involved stay stay informed stay safe out out there everybody have yourselves

a wicked awesome day we'll see you guys back again tomorrow