Bitcoin flashes 2022-style signals: Julio Moreno on a possible bear market rally

Transcript

We have had a really good rally since uh the lows of February, but still what I'm telling here is that it's a it's a bare market rally. What's up everybody? It's LG Ducet here and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that isn't ready for the party to be over yet, even if it looks like everybody already went home. Today is May 13th, 2026. Bitcoin has dipped back below 80K. It's actually below 79K as I'm recording this. And many of us are wondering if this is just a brief dip in the renewed bull run or if Bitcoin has fully rejected off that 200 day moving average. To break it all down for us today, we've got Julio Mareno, head of research at CryptoQuant. Back on the show, today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile

carrier. Feros, the layer 1 built for reali, and Nexo. Earn interest, borrow, and trade crypto. Julio, welcome back, man. I had a feeling when I saw you in the the calendar for our show that I was like we are going to be in trouble on that day because you've been you've you've been a guiding voice for us uh and gave us gave us some bullish indicators last time but you were also been a proponent of this kind of year-long bear and when I saw that we were going to be you were going to be back on the show I was like I feel like I feel like his his theories will prove true by then and and and great to have you on on as always man. Uh let's get right into it. So you're telling us basically that that 200 day moving average uh may have been the top

locally. >> Yeah, I mean from the technical side it it is it looks like that um the 200 moving a day moving average is really a really key uh resistance especially in in bare markets which we are still uh in a market in a downward trend. Uh but so yeah it it has also like so far proved uh to be like like a really important resistant for prices and and we got in this u last few days we got actually really close to it almost touching it and so yeah I wanted to point out that um we have had a really good rally since uh the lows of February since we hit a low of 60,000

we have rallied to 82,000 a little bit higher than that. So it's a around a 37% um increase in the price in the in the last few months. It's a it's a good rally but still what I'm telling here is that it's a it's a bare market rally and we actually have hit that that resistance which is really a key resistance during bare markets. We had much data on that. But if you look at the previous bare market, the first you know the red uh arrow to to the left it was almost you know identical in in the sense of that level being a resistance but also before touching that we had also in 2022 since between March and May

a 43% rally. So it's kind of like a similar situation that we have had uh this year. And so yeah, that's a you know, for now it has proven to be a resistance. So technically, it's a it's a it's um it's a it's a way to telling us that uh we may be you know in for a correction after a strong rally. >> Wow. Okay. And that and that 200 day MA that is what exactly you've placed that number around what 82 you've got here 82,400 >> 82 82 Exactly. and and we actually hit really close to that in in the last few days.

>> So we have >> I think I think we went a little bit above it. But is that is that a daily close? Is that how you measure that? Because I think we went almost to like if you down to the minute you we went almost to 83, but I think is I'm assuming that's a daily close that you're looking at. >> Yes. So the chart is the daily close. Exactly. Yeah. >> Okay. Okay. >> So we basically touch it but uh and then and then retraces from there, >> right? Yeah. And we haven't closed. I think our highest close was 80 to like 240 or something like 3 days ago over the weekend basically. Yeah. >> Or on Monday maybe. Yeah. Okay.

>> All right. That makes sense. Um >> so what I mean keep taking me through this. So so if if unfortunately your theory is true uh which is looking like it it is so far. Well, I'll let you take it from there because you always prepare these amazing presentations for us. But I guess my my question for you is what you said correction. What is that going to look like? like what what what level are you targeting? >> I have a slide also for that. But >> oh, okay. So, I'll just wait for that. I'll just wait for that. Let's get to the next slide. I'll save the I'll save the I'll save the special answer for the end. >> Exactly. It's at the end. Um so so yeah.

So the I what I got going to show you is that there there's have been some um convergence of certain you know technical indicators but also onchain indicators and market market data that is telling us that this rally uh could have ended and then that we have um may have a correction in the in the coming weeks. Um so this this one I like to always monitor. This is um the area the green and and red areas are are measuring the unrealized profit margins for traders right so for example in when we hit 60,000 on on February traders were at you know unre at really high

unrealized losses like um I think it was around 27% of of profit loss of of uh loss margin and so that was the you know the the the largest uh unrealized losses since 2022 right so we were at that point really Bitcoin was really uh undervalued on a short-term basis right since then we have had this rally and now we have you know high unrealized profits and so when we get to really uh high unrealized profits there's uh you know it could be um an indication of some selling pressure coming in in the next few days. So that the red arrow to the to the right is showing uh that high

unrealized profit and to the left we see you know that same unrealized profit really high and it was at at March 2022. So it's you know these indicators are converging into telling us that we may have a a local top here. So you had the 200 moving average, right, that we saw and now we we you see the high unrealized profits and those two, you know, they they they coincide in right now and also in the bare market of of 2022. So that's another indication that we may have hit this um the top for this rally and we may be in for for price correction.

>> If you're not seeing this, you're trading blind right now. There are real moves happening behind the scenes that most people don't see until it's way too late. Inside Milkroad Pro, you can track exactly what our analysts are buying, selling, and what's on their watch lists before it moves. You can try it out for just a dollar for 7 days. The link is in the description. Why wouldn't that why would that why would the unrealized pre profit margin being lower than I guess I guess the last Okay, so I see you're pointing to the last >> similar period from the bare market. So despite traders being in in a much higher unrealized profit margin through the bull market or at least through the 2023 and the recovery and whatever whatever whatever years you consider the

bull market, but 24 and 25 in those rallies there being considerably high levels of green of unrealized profit margin all the way all the way up to the top of of you know 126 or whatever it was. We were in the green for the last couple months or month or two, but that almost mirrors exactly the last bare market, especially now if we go down back down into unrealized losses. >> Exactly. Yes. Exactly. That's the point is comparing bare market to bare market. Of course, during bull markets, the unrealized profits are much bigger are much higher because we, you know, prices tend to increase much faster. And so this that selling pressure is you know

you need higher margins to you know entice traders to to sell right. So yeah during bull markets as you see there in the chart that the unrealized profits are much bigger but in terms of in a ver market it tends to be you know the unrealized profits are lower than in bull market. So that's when you you you see that uh a local top may be forming. So and and I wanted to point out that those um you know it's really similar situations between right now in a bare market and the 2022 bare market and in terms of technical indicators but also like onchain indicators like this one that showing that um profit margins are are too you know at high levels.

>> Got it. And this so what I find interesting about this chart as well and and I think you you've shown us this chart almost every podcast appearance but it is really interesting to look at because we don't really ever look at this otherwise is that especially for when we go into unrealized loss that the price did not especially the last bare market that the price did not bottom until like at the same time as the unrealized profit I guess, right? Is that you've got like your bottom here of unrealized profit, which is like let's say it's July 2022, right? Like dipping way way way down, but that the price >> didn't actually bottom until like

December 22, January 2023, right? So that's I guess I guess I guess what this paints for me, and maybe correct me if I'm wrong, is that it people will be an unrealized loss and they will sell. So clearly a lot of people will sell before the the price actually bottoms. >> Yes. Yes. correctly. I mean those waves that you you see that you know higher underly losses and then it moves down to to almost like break even that's how it behaves like um we show a really um high unrealized losses >> and then they they start to you know they they stop selling like heavily right and so that's the the price and the and the realized price of of um of

the traders converge again and so we get to break even and so that that's that's the movement that we see in those like in those rallies or or those sell off in in B markets and so yeah the point here right now is that we had that actually that high unrealized losses in in February and then they they start to you know clim climb a little bit and then now we have the high unrealized profits and that's when you say okay maybe you know price are too high and and there's going to be selling pressure coming.

>> Got it. Got it. Okay. Okay, that makes sense. Let's go to the next one. So traders may have started to take profits in a significant way. So this kind of what you were telling us at the start. >> So yeah, that's that's the the other side of the coin. So you see the high unrealized profits, but those are still, you know, unrealized. They haven't sold, right? And so now we moni what we monitor is okay, have they started to sell? uh and so what we see >> that from February to you know to uh almost uh let's say late April this year actually profits you know realized profits were weren't too too high but now we see the spike in in May in the first days of May we see that that's um

big spike on realized profits uh equivalent to 14 14,000 Bitcoin almost 15,000 Bitcoin and that that's on a daily basis is uh you know the highest since December. So we see that you know activity of selling to take profits you know starting to emerge also. So that's another indication of okay we have high unrealized profits but now they starting to actually take profits. So that's the the the other the other thing to monitor here and one one indication of okay now we are starting to to see those unrealized profit being being realized right >> so so you're okay so I guess this makes this makes a lot of sense especially

related to the last chart is that you go you know you go into unrealized profit >> but that means those people may sell right that a lot of people may Yeah exactly they may sell so that's yeah I guess that's the other the other kind of hidden part of this last chart too is that >> you're you're just you're seeing the actual it's just a measure of the their their profit and loss at that exact moment and that where the chart moves it kind of dictates that kind of shows their behavior from there. >> Um >> so okay okay that makes a lot of sense. So okay so >> and now this one is actually realizing that those >> so there's 14 and a half thou or 14,600 >> Mhm.

Bitcoin that are in profit basically that have been purchased that are >> in the equivalent I I like to measure it in Bitcoin because it takes away like the different prices uh historically right so you always measuring in bitcoin that's the equivalent so they took profits equivalent to you know 14,000 bitcoins yeah and that's >> so they took they took profits or they're in profit >> no they took realized taking profits yeah realize is when you actually take profits.

>> Okay. So on Okay. So in this upswing Okay, I see what you're painting here. So yeah, so since since February 5th or so, which is, you know, that last huge liquidation >> Mhm. >> traders have taken 14 and a half thousand bitcoin in profit basically. Uh >> so that's one day in one day. That spike is just one day. So >> Oh, that's just one day. So cumulative. Okay. There's a lot more. >> No, this is daily. This is daily daily uh data. So each day you see how much how much traders or how much holders are you know taking profits each day and so normally I mean there's there's always like profit taking or selling you know every day but it's like at low levels as you can see like in February March even

even April but now when in in May when we got to you know above 80 we we see that you know that spike you know a lot you know a lot more activity on taking profits right because there's there's much uh larger unrealized profits. So you can actually take profits uh uh you know after the rally after this rally so that's an indication of actually selling after this rally. >> The way we build wealth is changing. Stocks, savings accounts, real estate that playbook is getting rewritten in real time. Nexo is the platform built for what's next. It's an all-in-one digital wealth platform where you can earn interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a wide range of assets all in one place

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>> And you're telling me that, and it's funny, you always focus on US demand, but I guess it's probably the biggest buyer, but that the demand has eased >> here as we got closer to 80K, so fewer buyers. So we we have seen you know some technical indicators now some you know profit indicators some profit taking. Now if we look at the demand side this is interesting because yeah in in the US is typically the driver of of prices. Um so we we measure that with the the premium on Coinbase the price premium on Coinbase. So >> typically in when there's a rally or in a bull market the prices will be higher

at Coinbase than in other exchanges and that is um an estimation of okay there's there's you know much higher demand on the on the on the margin in the US. So that's typically a good indicator when prices are increasing, right? And we saw that uh from basically February, March, April with the Coinbase premium being in positive. So that green green line, it it tells you that the coin premium is positive and so there's, you know, higher demand in the US and and that's when this this rally started. But as this rally progresses and we hit those 80 80k and above that premium switch to

negative. So that's telling you that at these prices when we hit 80 80k at this higher prices demand starts to slowing down and so there's less demand in the US at the margin at at these high higher prices. So that's a really I think significant switch between US demand really um being growing growing higher and now >> reverting to to being you know slowing down. >> It's funny that demand flipped negative and but then the price still rallied to like a a I guess like local high, right?

Like that it's like even as you were dipping down, we still had that high daily close the other day despite already being in the red on on the Coinbase premium demand. And I guess that's that's only one exchange, right? So that's that's kind of how you're measuring US demand. But also >> that's interesting. Yeah. >> Important thing and it's good that you not notice that that tells you that is there's a divergence between price action and demand. That's what how I see it. So >> that's an indication actually that okay we may have like you know higher prices you know at the end of the rally but demand is already slowing down significantly. So that's like that divergence is really important to know this actually.

>> Got it. >> Here what what I try to estimate here in this uh metric this indicator is >> when we see a rally or or in general when we see price action you know what's driving it either you know is it a speculative demand or is it really real spot demand or both both are growing or both are contracting. So if you see the the green areas at the left of the chart, that's when both speculative and spot demand are growing. So there's there's growth in in both. And so typically that's when you have the more sustainable rallies or in a in bull runs when we are really in a bull run, then both demands will be uh will be growing

both type of demands. But if you see there in since October last year or November both were contracting right the red red area. So that's when you know everything switched we entered the this bare market. So both demands either speculative and also spot were contracting. Now when we bought them at 60k on in February both were contracting right but then what we saw you know especially in this late phase of of the of the this current rally is that speculative demand is growing but spot is not. So it's more like a speculative driven rally and that's when

you see that uh blue uh areas uh that's telling you that okay we we have demand uh obviously because price is increasing but where is it coming from? is mostly like speculative. It's not real like spot demand. And so that's uh you know and that's more typical in bare markets because spot demand is you know contracting or it's not there's not much activity on on on that side but speculative demand you know traders are the ones that uh you know go when there's a like a the rally that we have seen. So, but for me that is another indication that it's uh you know it's still like a burn market rally because it's mostly driven by by speculative

activity. So that's why I noticed there in in this chart u you typically want to see like both growing right but more importantly like spot demand really growing. >> So so wait sorry explain this to me again. So this is so the spot demand is speculative because who's buying Wait, who's buying it? >> No, here for example that blue area. >> Yeah. >> Right to the right. >> When it's blue that So this is total demand speculative and spot. But when that turns blue, it tells you that it only the speculative side is growing, not the spot.

>> Oh, right. >> Okay. So right now what we can see is that the this rally from you know lows or 60s to 80 was basically just a speculative demand growing not spot uh right >> and that's contrast with you know in in in October uh sorry in like September last year >> those uh Q3 and uh >> the green areas is when both were growing spot. Right.

>> Speculative. >> So what we can conclude is that this >> this rally is was mostly just driven by speculative activity. >> Right. Okay. >> Makes like not sustainable in a way because of what we've seen you know traders take profit when there's a after a strong rally like this one. >> So is that that's mainly like >> per right? Is that mainly what you were talking about? Yeah. Okay. So it's just per so so you say speculative demand you're talking about per. Basically, through the rallies we had last year in 2025, it was largely spot accumulation and per, but there was a lot of spot accumulation, which gives you a sense that it's likely longerterm holding, not as speculative, versus now it's been largely driven by there's been a lot of

uh per I guess there's been a lot of longs and as a result, that tells you that there hasn't been there's been way less spot accumulation and as a result, it was it was a speculative rally versus an a real one. I guess you would call it. Would you would you call the opposite of a of a speculative rally? A real rally? >> Oh, a spot-driven rally. >> Spot driven rally. Yeah, that's that's a nicer term for it. Yeah. Just real. >> Okay. And Bitcoin spot demand is contracting but at a slower pace. Okay. So, that that is good. Yeah, this is showing you know that only the spot uh growth, spot demand growth >> and yeah, I mean the the good news is that we are it's contracting at a slower

pace but overall it has been you know contracting since basically this is this is um so far 2026. So all all year we've seen contraction. Of course, there's like waves of when it it slows down the contraction or when when it accelerates. Right now, it's a just a small contraction, but still what we need to see is like, you know, growth, right? Sustained growth in in spot demand. >> This is kind of funny. So, okay. So, it's so it's contracting about a slower pace. So, I guess I'm just trying to understand this chart.

So, what does that tell us exactly? >> Well, that during this recent rally, the contraction slowed down. So that's also positive right but still you know the point is >> for a sustainable rally or in a bull market what you see is spots not contracting spot demand is actually growing uh for sustainable periods of time right so that's what you want to see okay >> so that's the you know the big picture is >> we still need to see that growth right so that the those rallies are not just speculative driven but also spot driven >> right okay and the Last one here. Price support stands around the 70k mark. This is this this is what I wanted to know.

Yeah, this is what we wanted. This is what we wanted. Go ahead. >> Yeah, I left it for for the end, right? And so here's okay. We we we have these metrics. We have these indicators of that maybe we see we saw uh a local top after this uh recent rally. we have this, you know, high um unrealized profits and even some indication that traders are are starting to take those profits. Demand slowing down a little bit. So where where were we going uh after this rally? uh one one of the metrics that I always uh look for you know in terms of where prices can go is the uh traders on chain realize price and right now that one is you know at

it's uh around 70k so that that's an important metric because prices tends to you know hover around that they they go down or up above that and then tend to to to go back and so right now we are above that metric you know, which is at 70K. So that's that's the the first I would say support that that I I would look at for for for the after this price correction. So 70K basically. >> So Julio, I'm just looking at our last chat which was March 12th. Um so almost exactly two months ago and that trader realized price was in the mid80s which I guess checks out right here, right?

Because we've got it right here and it's about 86. Did that and now it's dipped in now to 69K. So is that flipped because pe that's basically because people sold people sold on the way up right and it kind of shifted it. >> Yes, exactly. And that that >> it's if prices go down then people start if they they are you know transferring bitcoin so that that's um they are buying or selling at lower prices. So that that's why this this realized price tends to to to decline. That's why it decline there. Um >> got it. Now it yeah now it has stabilized around 70k but that that's a you know that's a key level you know sometimes it's a a resistance for prices like we see in the chart

>> in October and January after those after those rallies especially in the January rally that was a key level now we are above that actually >> and now if we if if this correction pro progresses that now becomes like the first support uh for prices I would say that that is around 70 70k. >> Got it. Why wouldn't we go below it though? Because in the last two major dips, like in the November dip and then in the February dip, we did go like we've been well below that. And even you're you're showing that it's been a top resistance.

>> Yeah. >> Um for for those the the rallies that that came in October and in January. So why so you think that we would now stay above it? I mean that's that's a a level that I will I will you know take a look at um or monitor if for a first um resistance uh support for prices. So so sometimes it's a it's a it's a resistance for prices but you know if you come in from above it then uh it's now a support. I mean we could go lower.

Yes. It's not it's not a you know like a >> 100% that will just uh hit that but that's for me like a first key you know support level that would I would look at uh if the if the correction progresses so yeah 70k is around where where I would put that that support >> and and do you think we would stay above that permanently if we stayed above it >> that will imply that we are you know if if if we hit it but we don't cross it below That's typically an indication or how it's you know those bull market starts how the bottoms you know the the bare market bottom starts to form we typically when when typically prices go

above that and then it's a resistance that is established and then we we uh stay above that. So that will imply that we are forming this bare market bottom and then you know uh starting the bull market. But yeah, first of first I I would just uh expect we touch it right and then we we'll see how how also you know when we touch it you know what are the you know what are the other metrics telling you you know when we touch it that's really important to to to analyze >> trillions of dollars in real world assets are stuck offchain real estate commodities private credit all locked behind outdated systems that weren't built for a global 24/7 economy the fix bring those assets onchain problem is

most blockchain chains weren't designed for that either. Ferros is. It's a layer 1 purpose-built for Real Fi, a real world financial infrastructure that lets assets be tokenized, verified, and traded at institutional scale. We're talking parallel execution for serious throughput, compliance baked in from day one, and infrastructure that actually connects onchain and off-chain systems. They've got a $10 million incubator backing builders who want to make real a reality. Join the Atlantic Ocean test net and start building at milkroad.com/faros network. Right. Okay. All right. Well, I feel like I feel like we're going to see you again exactly when that happens. I was just looking back at our our last few like your last few appearances on the show seemed to have come at these almost

key moments. And I feel like today is a good one where we just rejected two days ago. I think your other appearance was in that week at the start of February um and prior to to the recent one which was which was mid-March which was kind of the start around the start of this current rally. So, I feel like >> if we do I feel like when and if we do dip back down to this like 69K 70K support mark, I feel like that is going to align perfectly with your next appearance. So, I'll I'll talk to our producer about uh making sure that that's a a convenient time for me.

>> Um, great. Well, Julio, anything else we should know right now about the market, Julio? Anything else you're seeing? >> No, just the, you know, general idea. I mean, we have had these rallies. Just remember that even in bare markets, we have strong rallies. So um I I just you know take take it easy. Uh I I see a lot of you know in social media uh media talks about >> um oh we're starting a we already in a bull market and that so just uh I would say just take it with caution right and and u this will happen but it doesn't mean that we are you know out of the bare market yet. I mean, I think people already doing a good job listening to the show and listening to to real analysts like you instead of just

listening to to X or any other social media. So, uh, anyways, Julio, um, good to have you back, man. Thank you for all the insight. Um, it's too bad this rally has failed, but looks like it's something that that you you could kind of see coming. Uh, and like I said, I guess we'll see you at 70K and maybe the start of a fresh rally. A fresh rally from there. >> Yeah. Thank you. Thank you for for the invitation. >> Of course, man. All right. Thank you, Julio. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road daily and pro newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky.

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