Bitcoin to $100K and where the real opportunity sits, with Jamie Coutts

Transcript

I just think that there is greater opportunities now, legitimate opportunities with cash flow regeneration and capital discipline happening outside of Bitcoin. New token supply has hit the lowest level on record. At the same time, crypto protocols have paid out almost $2 billion to their token holders across this prior year. Bitcoin is stalling out here in the 80s. Are we about to break out into the biggest bull run in history or break down in another bare market rejection? And what do investors need to know about all of this? Hello and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that wishes that we could buy back all the time we spent talking about the Clarity Act. I'm your host, John Gillum.

Today is Wednesday, October 21st, and we are joined by Jamie Coots. Jamie is the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and the founder of Helios Analytics. He has just presented his payback era research at token 249 in Singapore. We are going to get a deep dive on what all of that is. Jamie is one of the best analysts in all of crypto. So, this is going to be a great episode. If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. A reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Alumni Ventures, giving accredited investors access to private market investment opportunities alongside leading VC firms. So, keep an ear out for more information on them later in the episode. But for now, welcome back to Milkward Crypto, my old

friend Jamie Coots. Sir, how are you? >> I'm doing well, John. Thanks for having me back. >> You are very obviously fighting a cold, so you are a trooper for doing this. I'm really glad to have you. Thank you for sticking it out for all of us here. Uh Jamie, I wanted to start the conversation by going back to the last time we talked which was in July and at the time you were seeing bullish divergences beginning to form on the the larger time frames and you were moving back into the markets in size that turned out to be the right play there. Walk me through a little bit about what you were seeing around that bottom and and the the decision to go back into the market with confidence right before that big short squeeze. Well, I mean, you be go through a couple of these uh cycles

and you start to look for uh the things that you've seen in previous cycles to to form at major inflection points. And so, most of them lined up by the middle of the year. Now, the macro front is the one that's sort of like the it's still hanging over the markets right now. Um I'll come back to that, but it wasn't enough for me to sort of um stop me from, as you said, waiting back into the market. I had built up cash from Q4 of last year. Um, and really what I saw in February were the signs of capitulation.

Capitulation is extremes in realized losses, extremes in liquidations. These are usually the signs that you get when you're forming a bottom. Now at the time what I was saying and I think I was on the show the week after we had seen that capitulation low and I was talking about this was that basically what you typically get at least in a in Bitcoin cycle is a retest of that capitulation low. We saw that in in previous cycles and of course we got that um but it was a failed breakdown and importantly what I was seeing by July was a couple of things. Firstly, on the [clears throat] weekly time frames, and I always talk about this when I'm, you know, on air with you guys. I was talking about the bearish divergence that formed

September, October last year, which was giving me quite frankly, you know, the very negative vibes, which I keep on saying over and over again. I called, I would say, badly because I didn't derisk enough. Um, I basically started taking uh profits and and and um building up cash in Q3, but I thought that that correction in Q4 and Q1 was just going to be a 30% correction. It wasn't. It was a big bare market. Okay, so that being that, what happened in July? We saw the inverse of that. We saw a bullish divergence on the weekly chart between the momentum indicators and price. As price was kept on pushing that lower bound of 58 59,000, the weekly RSI was making higher lows. That is always a

very good sign when it happens on the higher time frame uh for Bitcoin that actually the momentum to the downside is losing weight. Now, importantly, at that same time, what I was starting to see was real divergence between the crypto ecosystem and Bitcoin outperformance coming from apps that were bottoming and having high higher lows and also higher highs by the time Bitcoin was forming that bullish divergence. That was very strange to me in a sense that we hadn't seen that for we hadn't seen that formation in previous market lows. Now we in previous market cycles and we haven't had many so you know small sample size and all that but generally the way Bitcoin leads the sector or

leads the asset class um was very different this time around. So I started to look at DeFi applications, DeFi protocols from a fundamental perspective, looking at how they traded through the last, let's call it 9 months of the bare market and in many cases the volatility in the earnings in the fee generation was less this time round. In fact, some of them were actually still growing their footprint. Now again, this is kind of interesting. This is what we have, what I have personally been waiting for for being in this space for many years, looking for durability of earnings or cash flows or revenue, however you want to frame it, and sort of more structural flows. And that was obviously coming through from the first

wave, I would call, of like this this tokenization secular theme that started sort of Q4 last year with um Hyperlid and into the start of this and into sort of the middle of this year with Robin Hood chain that launched and whatnot. and that was boosting the you know some of the dexes and we had lighter and all the rest of it. So there was clear signs that the secular case for being exposed to crypto was showing up in the fundamental data as well as the technicals were starting to break out. So when I look at you know all my sector um all my sector uh indices which I've created you know looking at D5 versus Bitcoin smart contract platforms layer 1's versus Bitcoin and then even D5 versus smart contract platforms they were all showing that a massive bottom

after four or five years of secular downtrend. particular bare markets in those ratios were at least showing bottoming signs and that was enough for me to deploy pretty much all the cash in early July and I just waited for that last impulse move where Bitcoin broke out to deploy the last remaining cash. This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people and I am not one of them. So if you want to see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list and when I'm going to be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milkroad Pro today. It's just a dollar. The link is in the description. I answer questions day and night in Discord. I'll see you there. Okay, that's really helpful perspective. There have been a lot of lessons learned both from the b last bare market as well as uh you know

the the last October and the crash and all that. So I appreciate you sharing that wisdom with us. Uh now where are we? Right like Bitcoin is now stalling out in the 80s. We we've seen a little pump today. We're touched I think 85,000 today at time of recording. Um but we still haven't broken out. We haven't broken down. What are your updated thoughts on where we are on Bitcoin right now and how are you reading this this ranging price action we've seen for Bitcoin here? >> Well, it's interesting from like if you think about it from a relative standpoint. If you put Bitcoin up on a on a chart versus the NASDAQ, which is a really important cross, as well as Bitcoin versus gold on a weekly chart, on a daily there, it's clearly in an uptrend. on a weekly, you know, using some of the trending indicators that I

have that I've got, it's very close to inflecting on the weekly time frame, which is like has traditionally been like the the clear sign that the the demand supply equation or the relative performance between Bitcoin and these other two sort of peer assets that I compare it to um has inflicted or changed. So usually by now actually based on sort of the momentum indicators um what I'm seeing clearly on on gold and I think on NASDAQ is is a decent enough sign that actually that shift in momentum has happened. So given that we've got some macro concerns I mean the there's always a lot of talk about what's happening in the AI space and

look I think there are some concern there are definitely some legitimate concerns around financing in that space but I think without sort of waiting into the argument about whether it's a bubble or whether it's not a bubble what I see that that I can comment on is really what's happening on the liquidity front and when you've got a situation where debt has been has been rising at the pace that it has and liquidity has not been keeping up. So the the global liquidity index that I use um the momentum on that has been declining since Q1 of this year. Uh it's still positive but is not it's basically losing momentum. That's always been a sort of harbinger of um you know a weaker equity market. When you look at

margin debt, which is a note that I just published on the real vision platform to the membership there about if you look at margin debt which is you know the borrowings that investors are allowed to access through their brokerage accounts borrowing [clears throat] against stocks to buy more stocks usually is that hit 127% on a 3month annualized basis in the second quarter of this year. Now, that is the highest rate of change of margin debt since 2007. Whenever we've gotten over 100%. It's usually been unsustainable.

The moment when margin debt expansion goes negative in terms of the rate of change using the measure that I just talked about, it's usually been also again a a very close proximity to equity market pullbacks. So, I'm like I'm extremely bullish on where we are in crypto. I can see the I can see the relative momentum moving back into the asset class. I'm almost fully deployed. I I took some profits about uh a week or sorry about a month ago on some of my positions when I saw all the leverage build up in perpetuals on altcoins which was another indicator I can talk about. Um but it's very very

small. I am maintaining an extremely bullish posture towards this asset class for the secular themes but I I'm looking at sort of some of these things on um on the equity markets and thinking well if we get a pullback in equity markets what's going to happen without being sort of too blasze a about it um the response is the inevitable right the the US government is in a position where economic growth is paramount >> [snorts] >> um regardless of what the midterms are saying um they need the AI capex buildout to drive growth and they need the productivity gains from um AI to show up and so there are a lot of um too big to fail companies um not all but some and I think uh the response will be the inevitable liquidity impulse um that

will have to come now in the that liquidity impulse usually requires some sort of problem markets falling given how important the uh tax receipts are to the US government so you know being that as it may I'm still extremely bullish on on the asset class, but these are the sort of things that I'm I am concerned about. >> There's a lot of wisdom in that. Thank you for sharing that. I got to get into some of the research that you've been writing because every time I do one of these episodes with you, I get a lot smarter. I have to read like five or six of your research notes and there's always more to get to than we have time to cover. But one of the big things you've been talking about and you you did a presentation at token 2049 on this is crypto's payback era. And the thesis,

as I understand it, is uh capital discipline meets demand inflection. I thought was the the simplest way to capture this. Could you talk us through a little bit about this thesis and and what crypto's payback era actually looks like? >> Yeah, so I've been in the space for like 5 years and I came into it because I really wanted to sort of unlock or understand the uh what are the main drivers for token prices. Firstly, starting with Bitcoin and then starting with everything that's happening in sort of the cryp the crypto ecosystem. those mic control platforms and in DeFi applications and the most frustrating thing John has been for really the you know the first several years being in this space that fundamentals have not really mattered narratives and the supply equation

has overruled a lot of the demand factors that should matter. I did a lot of back testing and and building up some new screens and tools for the real vision community which kind of drill into this and there's a the end result is like a quality screen that I've built on on my platform which I'll get to in a second but essentially [gasps] what we've seen is uh in the last 12 months let's say that if you start screening assets by attributes that sort of define quality and anyone who's an equity investor will be familiar with factor investing. So whether it's you're a value investor or momentum investor, quality is another big one which looks at sort of the the the quality of the profitability of the earnings of the

company. Um you can sort of you can bring that into crypto um and translate those um those definitions into crypto. It's very subjective, but I've got mine which looks at, you know, the durability of the uh of fees, like how volatile are the fees. Um supply discipline, like how much is being emitted and what is the net payback to the token holder after emissions. Um so that includes the the buybacks and burns and things like this. and and and essentially what you start to see now is that really if you're investing in the in the in the few assets over the last couple of years that actually had pre uh pretty strong capital discipline and high quality, it didn't really it didn't really

outperform those that didn't, right? And it certainly didn't outperform the large cap universe of Bitcoin, ETH, Soul since start of the year. the outperformance of this sort of subset of the market which are DeFi protocols that are you know emitting um paying back either deflationary or reduced their inflation rates because of um capital discipline and new tokconomic policies which are reigning in supply while also showing um strong fee growth that actually started to outperform. Now that shouldn't be shocking. What's shocking is that it's taken this long and it's the result of the of the fact that we had very few protocols who were willing to actually create policies around for

token value acrruel because of the previous administration the previous SEC every time you know unis swift didn't unis swap didn't put on their um turn on the fee switch because they were worried about you know um uh enforcement action from the SEC some of them some of the protocols quite frankly it wasn't the SEC only that kept them back from value acrruel. It was essentially a really bad or misalignment between the token which had no value acrruel and the equity holders which captured all the revenue from the protocol. And if you look at you know there's plenty of examples of realignment starting to happen. Athena is a great example of this. Athena went out and said right um all the IP sits under the uh foundation for the for the

token now or revenues acrew to the token. we're going to institute buybacks um smartly based on you know whether we can grow the uh stable coin supply and they bought out u or they they offered all insiders who were due to vest the opportunity to be bought out and brought and brought forward the um uh the vesting schedule to one sort of massive unlock. All of these things um are starting to show up in the data. they're starting to show up when I look at token the number of tokens that are initiating positive tokconomic policies from 1 in5 um you know back in 2022 and I think I've got a chart here John it might be able to show this if you look at um this back in 2021 net positive tokconomic

changes were about 1 in 15 of the top 100 now it's about 20 20%. So it what what what this means is the bottom line is that in crypto if you have an application you have to you have to obviously in reinvest revenues into growth but you are not only competing now on product market fit of the product or the service that you're offering in crypto but you're also starting to compete on tokconomics and how disciplined you are with your capital. And that is very positive for an asset class that quite frankly for most institutional investors has been uninvestable because of regulations and because of

the lack of capital discipline. So this doesn't mean that every token or the whole asset class is clean. Um there are certainly cases where um it's you know it's clearly not but the trend is clear and this is what is making me bullish after being in the space for several years that we're starting to see responsible diligence uh from the protocols and the applications the blockchains in the space. >> Gotcha. Okay. So this is a pretty comprehensive uh you know analysis of all of this here. Um but what I'm hearing you saying is just that initial thesis I said like capital discipline in other words the new issuance of tokens is is getting uh let's say more disciplined and then there's a demand inflection that's combined with all of

this. Um you called out in your research that protocols paid holders almost $2 billion over the last year. Um but the fees and revenues are actually down from last year's peak. Is that just because of the bare market that we've been in? And do you expect this to turn around rapidly if if the bull market does start to come back? Yeah. So, I mean, I I ran these numbers in a report um published yesterday on Real Vision. So, application fees are down on last year, but it's still on a year-to-ate basis, they're likely to get very close to last year, which I think was around a number of around 14 billion for application fees. Uh so essentially what I call the GDP of the crypto ecosystem of the crypto economy it's now about 11 or 12 last numbers and we're it's so year to

date we're tracking to be real close to last year and what was last year. Last year was the peak of the bull market. This has been a pretty torid bare market. But I think what's more interesting is what you just mentioned. It's not just the fees are are more resilient from 25 to 26. it's that the percentage that's reaching the token holder through these mechanisms through these token value acrruel mechanisms is actually increasing. So that share of the fees that is supporting either burns buybacks or um validate staking rewards has increased and this is a positive sign. Um, I wouldn't argue that, you know, this is a this is like equity-like

um uh attributes, but it is starting to dis starting to the the protocols are starting to exhibit greater capital discipline in in the ways that you would want to see if you're investing in this asset class. >> All right. Something I wanted to ask you about is what is the the biggest change in terms of drivers of value here? Because over this 3-year period that you looked at here, tokenized real world assets have gone up. You said 16x and stable coins have doubled. Which one of these two it matters more for the token prices for the overall crypto economy?

Is it bringing in more of these tokenized real world assets, these highquality assets on chain, or is it bringing in more stable coin dollars or do you need both? Like how do you view that? >> Yeah, that's a good question. So, like I would try to nerd out with an answer that says, "Oh, look, I need to regress both of these and find out which one has the both most relevance." And which I probably will do just cuz I'm like that. But like I think it's the the real answer is that uh it's both tokenized assets increase trading activity. It also changes the nature of trading on chain from away from cryptonative assets to obviously real world assets. And so there is less cyclicality. There are

more fundamental sort of drivers of real world assets and that ultimately leads to improvement in token prices. So DEX volumes has been one of the biggest one of the strongest correlated return drivers for for crypto prices like for Salana and Ethereum and the and the blockchains. The problem is that it's been very cyclical. So if you just look at like when it accelerates typically you're at the end of a cycle. What this will do is that it will moderate the peaks and troughs in DEX volumes which will moderate the peaks and troughs in the underlying assets that generate the fees which is the applications and then the blockchains

they settle on as well. So, and then you've got stable coins. It's all going to be one messy mix of everything that's going to drive value because stable coins are are the fuel for aentic commerce which open up new use cases which will drive DEX volumes and mixed with RWAs and the new and new forms of collateral that will be available on chain with the unlocks that will happen in personal finance trading. It's all very, you know, they're all sort of one the one thing, >> right? Okay. I I want to I'm glad you brought up Agentic Finance because I had Raul Powell on the channel not too long ago and he and I spent a long time talking about this intersection of AI and crypto. This is something we've been

focused on here at Milk Road and I know you think about this a lot too, but so far it seems like Agentic Finance is still very early stages just in prototypes and and there's not a huge amount of, you know, AI agents using crypto yet. What is your outlook on that? Do you think that this is going to take a few more years before it really takes off? Is this going to be like a big thing in 2027 in your mind? And just what are you seeing at that intersection as as part of this whole mix that you're describing of stable coins, onchain finance, and tokenization? >> Yeah, I I can't see how this isn't going to be a massive 2027 story. So, you know, I've been tracking the X42 protocol um activity, and it's like it's been disappointing. There was a huge surge at the end of last year which

everyone got excited about but a lot of that was incentive based and and also beta testing by the major players in the space like bass and it's been it's been really disappointing since now in the last couple of months you've seen some major announcements like Cloudflare which represents about 20% of web traffic have enabled X42 so that suddenly we're in a world where if you've got a website you can actually gate it and charge for API calls or for um scraping of your data. Now that's quite liberating and one of positive developments that we've seen in the last couple of years for um you know realization of value and that obviously is going to be conducted through sort of aic means. I I think that the where X42

protocol um transactions are right now is probably the low that we'll see the lowest it will ever be. um how meaningful that happen that is in terms of like overall transaction volumes. I think it'll be fairly small because these are microtransactions. It's going to take a couple of years for this to ramp up. And if you think about it in terms of just like the percentage of overall onchain transaction fees, it's it's like tiny minuscule today. And even if it ramps up a hundred a thousand times, it will still be relatively small versus all the other fee generation that takes place because of tokenization and the new financial sort of channels that are starting to appear on chain as well.

But in time it will it will dwarf everything else. But um I think you don't need it you don't need it to be like 50% of overall volumes by 2027 for it to have a huge impact on on the ecosystem. In crypto, you can get into a project long before it lists on Coinbase. In tech, the early window mostly belongs to VCs, and companies now stay private for a decade or more. Alumni Ventures, a partner of the Milk Road Show, gives accredited investors a way in. Time and CB Insights both rank them as a top 20 US venture firm. You can sign up for free to see the weekly deal flow or write one check into their foundation fund for about 25 private deals. Venture is high risk and long-term though, so read the details first. Go to av.vc/milkroad.

All right, Jimmy, we're we're getting pretty deep into the episode here. I got to ask you a little bit about what's in the portfolio here. Um because I said at the top of the show, you're one of the best analysts in crypto. People always want to know what's in the bag, what's out of the bag. Um and we've talked about some of the fundamentals that drive some of your thesis. You made huge calls on names like Zcash, Derive, Near, several others. And you said you're still mostly long on the markets. You took a little bit of profits. Just talk to me a little bit about what are some of the assets you're most focused on right now. Are you still holding? Are you thinking about taking more profits? what's what's the the the outlook for your portfolio from here?

>> So for for me this this year has been about positioning for the next this next phase of the of the asset class which I sort of alluded to at the start which was really about the changing structure of the asset class tilting more towards applications but also smart contract platforms for lack of a better term at the expense of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's still my largest position, but I was running a portfolio for four years in, you know, in real at Real Vision when I came over, which was 80 85% Bitcoin, which was the right call. Like, if you just look at the relative charts, nothing had really

broken out against Bitcoin over the last couple of years in a sustained fashion. That's starting to change. I mean, Ethereum was threatening it. I know that you're a big Ethereum bull and Ethereum's in the portfolio. It's one of the largest positions. Um and it was virtually it was not I didn't hold it before this year. Um it still looks like it's forming a base to break out later. Um and I could say that about the DeFi applications in general as well, but it's just the change of the nature of the market where the um relative performance in applications, DeFi applications and also smart contract platforms versus Bitcoin, the benchmark asset, the anchor asset, um has started to change. So that has been really the

the focus for me. It's been reorientating the portfolio into the the base the base or the infrastructure layer for the new financial economy which is L1's. I've not looked at any of the L2s as a as investment. I know that um I know that like Sanch Charted have come out with some really big calls on arbitrum but I'm looking at the L1's at this at this point and taking the allocation up from you know roughly around about 10 20% up to about 30 35%. And gone from 0% in DeFi to about 20% in DeFi probably needs to go a little bit higher. So the allocations have been towards the the the major dexes that I think are positioned to win in the

tokenization wave. Um I've been a big bull on derive from March of this year and that's been a fantastic outperformer and the other the other sectors that I'm quite interested in is lending as well. So I've got exposure there through Ave and um a couple of the other protocols. So it's really a retilt towards DeFi applications at this stage. And of course I I you know I bought um Zcash back in April and I continue to to hold that. Um, I just think that there is uh there is greater opportunities now, legitimate opportunities with um cash flow regeneration and capital discipline happening outside of Bitcoin.

>> It's really great. I appreciate the transparency on that and I'm also glad that I'm getting a reputation for being bullish on Ethereum. I don't know how you got that idea. Um, I I want to ask you about something else too. I've heard you describe your investing style in crypto as high conviction, low turnover, and that resonates a lot with me because that's kind of how I approach this as well. But Athena is one that I've heard you say and you know correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I've heard you say that this for you is a trade and not necessarily in the same bucket as some of these longer term holds for you. Could you walk me through the thinking on that and you know how you kind of decide is something a trade versus a long-term hold and what that that

process is like for you? >> Yeah, so Athena was mentioned earlier. It was one of these protocols which I think recognized like read the room really well this year and said we have to change how we're conducting ourselves because we were one of these sort of you know I'm sure they would never say it but like there were one of these VC coins that came out and and and and just chronically underperformed because of the the structure of the of the TGE and so they don't have um they don't have a buyback But they've initiated they've they've changed the policy to initiate a buyback based on the growth of the uh stable coin supply from where it is now

at about 4.8. It needs to get up to 7.5 before the buybacks start kicking which I think is actually a smart um you shouldn't buy back a token you know irrespective of what the market is doing or how well you are tracking as a protocol like it should be based on KPI. So I think that was very very smart. So, as a a very high beta play, given the reversals that I was seeing back in um back in August, it was just a good it was a good asset to own at the time. Look, I I it could it could be an asset that I hold for a lot longer. Um it performed extremely well. It's pulled back now. Um so, I think it's, you know, it's I'm I'm really happy with the position. Uh there are other assets that I'm starting to view a little bit more

favorably that are in the sort of real world asset tokenization space within the DeFi sector that I'm using my quality screen on the Helios analytics portal to identify and you know that could be something that I switch into. Um if we've got time we can we can show that. But uh this is uh sort of the the product of a lot of work that I've been doing on looking at the fundamentals and it's such a hard like crypto should be a lot easier and because effectively like we are talking about open software um open source software uh and transparent you know transparent uh technology but the data transparency is

appalling in in crypto and the data providers do their best but it's very hard to sort of put together a lot of the um sort of the data points that I need to look at. So, I've started to work on building out my own database. Um I use great services like token terminal um to build this sort of stuff, but this is um something that's a little bit more customized where I've created essentially a screen that looks at what I would define as quality. Um and so durability, value capture, and what I call payback, which is like the net the net emissions from the token. And if you look at um the applications in the space, then you can start to see how well they score on these different

pillars. And so [clears throat] Athena is not very high on that and that's well known. That doesn't mean it can't perform well because it just doesn't have um it still has a an inflation rate which is which is higher than a lot of protocols. So there's a lot of opportunities in the um space and if and the reason why I'm I'm leaning more into looking at or using this as a lens to invest in the space is because I understand that this is exactly the way institutional investors will start approaching it as well. This is the reason why I got into crypto back in 2022.

Now I think you know and this is just a a quadrant which shows you where all the assets lie based on how much they pay back after a dilution and and their quality score. But what I really want to show here, John, is just the uh track record because you have to be sort of honest about what this has meant. And I mentioned it at the start. If we go back to, let me just turn off some of these um some of these other um time series, but look at the chart here from sort of 2022 when I started looking. Well, the back test goes back to 2022 cuz that's when really I think there's enough data to sort of do this kind of analysis. But the orange line here is Bitcoin and the purple line here is the top 200 market cap weighted index which is obviously

Bitcoin Ethereum heavy that accounts for about 80%. [sighs and gasps] Now they have actually since 2022 uh in the case of the top 200 m eaked out a marginal um net gain but Bitcoin is up 82%. Clearly it's been the outperformer of the space. It has not been it has not paid over that time at least from holding from 2022 to today been a good trade to be in altcoins. And if I look at the look at the top 200 universe ranked by their quality the top third is down 50% and the bottom third is down actually 73%. Okay.

So, okay, it's been it didn't matter. Investing in highquality names didn't matter based on the based on my definition of quality. What's interesting is that year to date is that that has completely flipped. So, the top third is up 49%. The Bitcoin is down about 6% and the top 200 market cap weighted index is down about 7 8%. So one year of data is not enough to go on. This is not statistically significant. I'm not saying that this is some sort of new alpha strategy. What I am saying is that it's I think it's as we move forward if the thesis plays out,

it just becomes more important to actually screen for these attributes. That's how I'm sort of thinking about looking at some of the DeFi protocols and um using I guess a more fundamental approach. That's really helpful, Jamie, and great analysis as always. I think that this is uh you know, how you've made your reputation, right? Like you're the guy who gets down into the details and into the weeds and the data and and finds the the alpha and the story that's hiding in plain sight, so to speak. And for those who are listening uh and didn't get to see some of the things that Jamie presented, I recommend checking it out on YouTube, but Pump Fun and JST, which I think is just lend from the Tron ecosystem were the two high scores um from from Jamie's system there, which may surprise some people, but we'll let

that be what it is. Uh Jimmy, I >> just uh do do your own research because like this is a um very uh this is an empirical way to look at the market, but you really have to dig into the underlying protocols to find out like what's driving those um you know the the the ratings of that. Um and look, the Helios analytics portal uh will be available to all of Real Vision Pro subscribers very very soon. Um, but it also could be available to um to other subscriber to to non-subscribers at some at some point in the future as well.

>> Awesome. Well, keep building great tools, Jamie. Um, I appreciate you showing us that though. That preview is helpful. Okay, we're we're close to time here. I got to wrap up with some kind of a a question about the outlook for you here. And I think a lot of people are just wondering, is Bitcoin going to break out or break down? It seems like we've tested 81K a few times. The bulls keep defending it. Everybody keeps saying we're going to pull back to the 70s. Some people are calling for even lower lows, but I I think that there's also a risk that we might break 87k and break out higher here. What is your expectation between now and the end of the year for Bitcoin? And do you think we break up or break down from here? >> It's a like this is one of the toughest

questions um and it it shouldn't be, right? Because it's like the question you get asked the most, but it's just like where we are right now with Bitcoin and sort of the the macro um outlook is I guess causing me a little bit of indecision. It doesn't really matter. I guess the short term I think the I think the I think the low for Bitcoin is in and I think dips on the back of macro uncertainty and volatility are for buying. Um I think if you look at the distribution of Bitcoin um you know relative to where it's been in its secular trend this is still not cheap not extremely cheap but in the

zone where if if you get dips back down to 70,000 or whatever I think they are great buying opportunities and that goes for a lot of the highquality um assets in crypto. Expect volatility. We are 4 years into a liquidity cycle, which is roughly when you would expect higher volatility and problems to start to permeate. In saying that, we've got an administration that understands this pretty well and is trying to manage a liquidity cycle. I think Bessant understands this better than or does understand this better than anyone. Um and so I think with the secular win tailwinds that are behind the asset class and the cleansing that we had over the last 12 months um puts the asset

class in a pretty good position. So where it goes from here like obviously if it breaks 86 and I was talking about this in the last show 80 the the low 80s was this cluster of major resistance. It came from onchain data. It came from spot positioning data. It came from where the the high from the May counter trend rally was formed. All these things said we break 85,000 then we go like it goes to 100 pretty quickly because it just clears all this um all this overhang. So yeah, we're very close to that now. Like if we break there, I think it's you know it's great.

We'll see we'll see most of crypto do sort of one and a halfx of what Bitcoin does uh on that breakout of Bitcoin. But look, I mean, I I'm just trying to I'm just trying to like hedge my bets. Not hedge my bets, but like I'm I'm so long that I'm trying to uh make sure that people are not overleveraged right now because of the volatility that's coming. Um but in terms of like, you know, has it is this still a good time to invest in in crypto? Provided that you're not leveraged, provided that your position size relative or your allocation relative to other things is sensible and you can sleep at night. I think this the next the next 12 months are going to be extremely good for for the asset class.

>> The phrase that I used on our Monday episode was hold on to your butts. And I think we we agree on this one uh Jamie. So thank you so much Jamie Coots, crypto analyst at Real Vision and Helios Analytics. Thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing so much insight and and wisdom and alpha and research with us today. Uh thank you for doing this while sick. I really appreciate you fighting through that and thank you so much for being on Milco Crypto. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online? >> Realvision.com. You know, it's it's free to join. There's a trading competition going on at the moment with $100,000 in prizes that uh is just about to start.

So check that out. There's great content there. There's dashboards, there's portfolios, um the analytics that I'm building, it's going to be available there, but then otherwise it's just um on Twitter, it's Jamie one coots. >> Well, thank you so much, Jamie. Everybody here at Milkroad is a big fan of everybody at Real Vision. Um and so I'm always happy to talk to anybody from the team over there. So, keep up the good work and I'll see you later on in the bull run, my friend. >> Thanks, [snorts] John. Nice to see you again. >> And thank you all for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you on the next episode of Milk Road Crypto. Thanks for being here, everybody. Bye. [music] >> Thanks for listening to Milk Road. If

you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe. And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milkro Pro is [music] built for. Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early, and Pro lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every [music] position. Check out Milkroad Pro at the link below. Everything you hear on Milkroad is forformational purposes only. These are our personal opinions, [music] not financial advice, and we may own some of the investments we talk about. Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.