Betting On The Election, Altcoins, How Does Polymarket Survive | Analyst Roundtable

Transcript

I think very [ __ ] cooked excuse me I think that the down I mean I just think of like putting putting on my macro hat which I like try not to wear but I just think of like the up and up down beta capture of these things and like they have a lot of down beta and they like don't have as much update as they used to have so like you you end up the ratio just does hasn't been working for a long time I feel for like more than six months um so I feel like it's unless you get the clear like the all clear from a trump win I feel like it's really really hard to justify going out on the risk Spectrum nothing said on zerox Research is a recommendation to buy or sell

Securities or tokens this podcast is for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions not Financial advice bacho Ryan and our guests May hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed what's up guys welcome back to another episode of zerox research I'm joined by Danny Ryan Conor and Felix jovon or Javin Javin or J if you're French and you can you can pull it off I cannot uh from forward guidance previously on the margin yes um also known as macro GCR also known as saves our asses on analyst CED by coming in and talking about macro how are you doing Felix good good oh I'm

so excited to be here big fan of uh of going into the other side of the barell barbell a little bit away from Acro and just diving into the trenches a little bit today so it's going to be fun yeah we'll do I think we'll spend most of the time talking about things that is more in your realm than our realm election week weekend week um but I wanna I want to ask one question at the very very beginning is how much does Felix no or how much do you do in crypto because I feel like like my understanding was that you weren't very crypto heavy but then I listen to a bunch of forward guidance episodes otm epes and you're quite comfortable so do you want to give a

background on sure yeah I U yeah I'm pretty I'm pretty in the trenches I I will say um at least in my opinion I don't know I I got into crypto through a macro lens like in 2019 or so um firstly for mostly Bitcoin um you know like I read the Bitcoin standard book and and was looking at it through that lens of like okay you know the Inception of Bitcoin is is a life raft against currency debasement against government intervention etc etc um was you know pretty solidly of the mind that you know money and and just like Global discount rates are broken which means like valuations are broken because the money is broken um so I I I got in originally through that um and then as I got into

it I started to explore you know start to go down the rabbit hole of of everything else um and I've always yeah had like a bit of a djen flare to myself so definitely appreciated all that so yeah you know like I I pretty much rode the wave like I really got on chain around the time of defi summer um was playing around with that um I was all over the place rotating the different um you know Olympus oh oh forks and the like on every different chain so that got me pretty experienced with jumping across random esoteric chains um I was super deep at the time in in the nft world actually like 2020 2021 I was just like constantly in every Discord of any

new like open seed project launch at the time you know this is before we got like a million projects that were launched every day there was just like one or two a week so I was I was pretty deep in focus on that and you know actually it's funny like I always talk about all these like macro thoughts and things but like for sure the the best I've ever done trading was was an nfts and flipping them so that was a lot of of that context so doing that at the same time as like yeah messing around with defi defi summer and like defi 2.0 when we decided to call it that for a little bit before it all Unwound um you know so I've always I've always been in there um you know not I wouldn't say have any like fundamental Edge in it but I was

always you know setting aside you know some some money to go speculate on chain um jumping around you know like I was I played the defi kingdoms thing um when that was running you know I think I bought Jewel at like two bucks so I did pretty good there u i I didn't sell the FICO to but like I was I was I was running those flywheels so I don't know I've kind of been everywhere um but you know probably just as more of a tourist than anything I wouldn't sayen necessarily have like a good Edge in it but I have a lot of fun in it I think that's the perfect way to approach you probably just don't fully do it the full time but though when the money's rolling just come in and then go out as well um I have a were you a gold bug at any

point because I feel like that yeah a little bit I feel like around that time where I was just like yeah so I mean originally before I was like full-on macro like I was originally like a value investor in like reading the Buffet books and stuff um and so I feel like there was that transition phase where I was you know I was definitely like reading the Peter shift stuff and being like Oh my God like Global central banks are corrupted and broken we need to own gold and so I I still have an appreciation for gold but I wouldn't say I'm a gold bug like I view it as more of like a trade than like a oh my God everybody needs to own Gold forever and like hide it under your your your bed um type of idea um but you know I like I still own some gold um but

definitely view it like as just like more of like a correlation thing than like I still think fundamentally like Bitcoin is better than gold in terms of its properties that's what I think as well um all right let's get into I guess some election stuff Danny do you want to Quee us up yeah um clearly I think everyone is aware uh we've had this impending event for the past several months um lots of discussion about it for all over the feed it's it's been a main topic for quite a while um in in our industry at least um maybe some some quick takeaways from just some of the data that we're seeing like um polls have I I don't know if it's just Market positioning like

people getting crazy about some of these early polls coming in and maybe showing some slight um unexpecting unexpected results in different states like Iowa had a had a poll um indicating a CALA win though only one of of several polls that came out recently so um hard to say how much weight should be put in there but we're seeing maybe Market moves happening on some of these things in real time um some other interesting data that I think maybe is shouldn't be too surprising is that in some states some of the early um results are showing lots of like female Democrats as new as a a majority of new early voters um which when you have a a woman up for presidential candidate maybe that shouldn't be so surprising right um but I I guess there's a lot of things to

cover here um Felix I'm sure you guys have been discussing over on forward guidance um potential impacts on macro and related but um and I think maybe the topic around repositioning and you know a Trump trump Victory and the Trump trade and then maybe some some recent hedging and other things or thoughts on that going on have probably been discussed at nauseum but um the other thing we can talk about generally is um maybe General expectations I think there's some if we look across the board like 538 poly Market Ki even Robin Hood now has you know trading for it there's lots of plls out now um General expectations seem maybe fairly mixed although a lot of the betting markets seem to still kind of be in favor of a

trump win just by a small margin today um curious everyone's thoughts do we have any super hot takes here or is it really like a toss up like it like it kind of seems to be I'm gonna say well I first want to also do like a little Roundup of everybody gives who they think is going to win and then I get to bully if you're wrong or if you're right but I think it's going to be very close um I think it's gonna be Trump who wins but I think it's gonna be a lot closer than the echo chamber that my Twitter algorithm thinks it is um I think it's gonna be kind of a toss up what do you guys think I might take a little bit of a cop out and say that I think it's going to be a clear winner but I'm almost in a weird way

still like 5050 on who the clear winner will be but I feel like it's going to be a clear winner I feel like so obviously there's that Iowa poll that kind of shook mark over the weekend um because it came out like pretty dominant towards Cala and the the pollster has a pretty good track record and I think that that was a really good thing to happen I think because I was getting pretty concerned about positioning going into this that we were pretty aggressively pricing in a trump wi um and I just don't think it's as clear as it should have been based on what was priced into the markets um and just in general you know if you're going into like a like a 50/50 like obviously one of them is going to win one of them is going to lose and and to go into there with that

much of of an expectation of one of them to actually win is is pretty concerning to me so I'm really glad to see it come back down where you know intuitively it feels to me like we're we're at 50-50 pricing again um you know if you just look at like where Bitcoin was trading before that runup versus now um so I don't know I feel like just intuitively it feels like it's going to be a clear winner but you know if if just to you know put it out there I'm going to I guess I'll plant my flag on Trump um but I can also see the case for Kamala but I do think whoever wins it'll be it'll be a clear winner so that's kind of why like you know I tweeted out last week that like my base case is the nothing ever happens meme because I just feel

like there's going to be a pretty sad resolution but I could be wrong you know I'm just I'm just get do my best guess on political analysis so I don't know yeah I feel um I feel that I am working with a decent mental model for this one um I think that Trump takes this pretty easily I think perhaps over 300 Electoral College votes which is similar to the outcome that you saw in 2016 the reason I feel that way is because I'm looking at like all these polls that are coming in um if they favor the Democrats from an elect from an electoral college perspective they do so by a very narrow margin and the opposite is true if they end up favoring the Republicans and just from like a

account perspective I'm seeing far more Republican wins than Democrat um the other like I think you have to also have to implement like a fudge Factor right like the popular vote like the popular vote polling like they underestimated Trump by nine points in 2016 they underestimated him by four points in 2020 um maybe they underestimate him by like two points because you do objectively have like this um like like white male voters who support Trump refuse to answer the polls correctly or participate and we're seeing that out of New York Times I think they just had a recent article about that so I think um there still there's still a little social stigma there that's like systematically undercounting uh his support so when I

take when I take all that and I just look at the polls and then you apply that fudge factor I think like you have pretty handily like Trump having like a pretty easy night um now the Iowa pole kind of like throws a wrench into that but from just like poking around it seems like the sample size was very low like in a very odd fashion like the demographics of the poll were not disclosed um and it was um what was Max resx tweet about it it was like a frequent poll as as opposed to um taking in Prior Pro or past probabilities so you're supposed to like take into consideration like the um past polls and

like your projections and this was just like a standalone thing which um you know has obvious like sample siiz biases so yeah think um I think it's pretty obvious as like what's going to happen now like I think the big question is the price action over the next 12 months in both scenarios and uh pretty firmly believe that over a 12-month period if uh if Trump wins you see Bitcoin at 150 and um I actually think that you are down to flat on bitcoin if P wins I don't think it's very obvious that Bitcoin goes higher I think v-shaped recovery after Kamal if Cala wins I don't think I think Bitcoin is destined to go to

$150,000 per I think it's the Golden Bull Run and I think it doesn't matter I don't know about alts um espe def I think defi just keeps getting cooked but I think Bitcoin is yeah I feel like my framework to I agree is that yeah we got this we get this short-term deviation if if she wins but I think like I can get into it a little bit but I still think like the macro is just like so fundamentally bullish that I just don't know how you derail that necessarily um but yeah there's just the inos syncratic factors of how it gets applied to like the regulatory situation I I'll add a take here before we fully jump into the price price predictions expectations and hopes um I do think in line with I think both of what fix and Ryan have said

although Felix you kind of sat on the fence a little bit with the prediction but um I do think the point about having a clear winner is probably going to ring true I just did some like historical looking um at some of these like key kind of battleground States over the past several feral elections and there just tends to be this trend of like Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania them sort of all kind of falling in line to whoever the winner is um you know historically I think Ohio as well used to be one of those States but has become a bit more of a red State um since Trump so that's kind of changed that thing up but um if you look at some of the the early early polling data in those States um it those numbers are dominated by Democrat voters registered voters um as

of right now which just gives me the feeling that um there's some some underrepresentation towards Trump at the moment um which has me leaning in his favor in like taking all three of those States and then really just I think when you look at just the rest of the makeup with it being sort of largely decided in most cases I think that kind of maybe defines the outcome there for us um and that might be that margin that we're talking about where you get those three four states fall in line and and he gets that handy victory of you know 4050 electoral votes um however you see that playing out right and Conor why do you think we're going down why do you hate Bitcoin if you look at the um the regime that the Democrats have like look I've I've been following

politics for some time um I've always really enjoyed it uh I've watched the de the Democrat and Republican party change very meaningfully over my lifetime um as far as the Democrats or sorry the demographics that they support the policies that that they support and one if you're going to point out like what's the biggest Trend in the Democrat Party it's it's just this um it's um it's this aggressive stance toward business and wealth and capital formation if you look at the IPO Market since the Democrats have been in power it's been nothing like VCS cannot exit um if you look at um the rhetoric towards you know wealthy

individuals in the United States um it's increasing ly like reach new highs it seems like every four years um so much so much so to the point where they're not even willing to acknowledge an individual like Elon Musk who's done so much like for the country for the world for the environment and they can't even they can't even acknowledge his existence um yeah if you're looking back at the EV Summit or if you're looking today where they where they'll actually denounce what he's done net right they'll say that he is that he is a net negative um and that that's baffling to me so um if you have like this very an anti- like Capital formation stance

um then that's bad for risk markets and Bitcoin today is still a risk asset objectively there is no quantitative measure that I can see where Bitcoin is a like Safe Haven asset um it might theoretically be that because of the 21 million thing and because of the censorship resistance or whatever um but objectively today it's quantitatively you cannot make that case so that's why I think Bitcoin sideways to down because you know in these let's say that you have to drisk like you drisk the riskiest thing in your portfolio and like I'm sure the NASDAQ does well like those things they have political influence like they have you know Moes there's um you know you're

you're kind of stuck with mega cap Tech but like the Democrats have done what they could to hurt crypto as much as they could over the past four years operation chokepoint um and you know numerous SEC actions like why wouldn't that Trend continue um and I look at her platform and they're still not playing nice with crypto um and the other so yeah I feel like all you need to do to prove that out is just look at the the change in Silicon Valley exx from being like pretty hard Democrats to all pivoting to Republicans like there's just been a hug pivot to that and I I always listen to a Scott Galloway um who runs like a he's doing like a raging moderates podcast

which is like fairly left leaning and just like as a d you know just get the other side because I feel like I just live in in quite like a center right Echo chamber on Twitter so I always like to listen to it just to see like what they're thinking about and even they had admitted like not inviting Elon to that Eevee Summit was just an absolute [ __ ] up like how could you not invite the guy who just spearheaded the entire thing just to like of course he's going to go over to Trump and and and try to you know get something going there because you guys pushed him out like it's ridiculous to not invite him to like an EV Summit when he's he's the EV guy you know I W I will push back a little bit Ryan I guess I'm curious to understand

like we're in a democratic regime today and have been since you know 2020 and yet over the past few years Bitcoin has up significantly um from its you know prior case of the lows falling out of the kind of the 2021 um crazy Market cycle postco um despite the SEC actions against you know altcoin projects and Dows and and Labs teams like I mean Bitcoin has done incredibly well um in this climate so why why would continuing the administration another four years be a death like a sideways moment for it I guess yeah bitcoin's done well because the SEC has lost like they've done a

very good job at losing um so if you get if you're if you're able to push these things high enough where you get to Republican courts Pro business courts then they start to lose but that takes some time um I think you have to a degree you have um a market that's pricing in a more favorable regulatory regime and obviously I think that that has to unwind if um if the election goes uh towards Harris and especially if they win like meaningful seats in the House and Senate um I think that um I mean look following Anchorage from like early days they got their OCC Charter which was like a huge reason why crypto ran in 2020 it was like you know

old Bank Regulators saying like hey you can custody Bitcoin at like a trafi custodian anage got that license they got it in late 2020 they were like um you know they were on the process towards implementing that lure and then Biden got elected and they had to push it through before he reached office because they feared that he would revoke it they feared that he would revoke it like those things are not good for business planning right and any progress that you're making like if you have Gary gansel is going to hit you with a second third lawsuit like I just think that that's an overhang um combined with the observation that I do think we are objectively like late cycle given what's

going on with you3 unemployment um so I I just think that the risks are more to the downside I guess feel I'd want to hear your thoughts on this like 12 months out maybe even longer but like to Ryan's Point like what are your thoughts given given macro given your view of the world going forward like to me going into what is seems to be an easing cycle it just feels like Risk should continue to thrive and if Bitcoin is one of the riskiest assets why wouldn't you be buying it hand over fist yeah yeah I feel like okay so the simple framework that I have is we got a gross load down over the summer um that caused some spikes in the labor market which Ryan

was referring to um and at that time we saw a little bit of other you know economic indicators start to point towards some acceleration of the downside and it feels like you know early August that's when we saw like the the Yen carry trade unwind stuff there's a lot of things kind of coming ahead all at the same time and we got to this point where you know there was there was talk of like yeah like 75 bips like inter meting Cuts being talked about and things got a little bit ridiculous there for a minute but what that did do is the the FED came in in September and cut 50 bips um for their first move and I think part of that was an admission that they should have cut July so they tried to catch up but okay so they're cutting rates we're we're at the top of the

easing of the hiking cycle we're beginning the easing cycle now you need to think about the context of how are we cutting the like what are we cutting these rates into like what type of economic context are we in um in my opinion the distinction is whether you think we're going to continue into a recession or is this the bottom of of this slowdown and we start to you know either Trend up or actually re accelerate that I think there's some there's some orange to red flags in the labor market that signify that um it was warranted going 50 bips um and that they should continue to cut I think you know it's highly priced in that they will cut this week um 25 bips I'm pretty confident they'll cut again at least 25 bips in

December because there is some structural changes in the labor market there's a lot of noise in the labor market right now I don't want to get into like the specific um idiosyncrasies of it but overall just know there's a lot of noise but when you unpack the noise a little bit there is some somewhat concerning trends that will keep the FED on the gas of cutting rat so now you just need to think about okay how how much weaker will the labor market get I don't maybe marginally weaker but I I don't like we've seen you know the Som roll was something that got talked about a lot throughout the summer that it just shows attracts the the momentum and acceleration and convexity of the unemployment rate because when it kind of goes it really goes and that actually triggered and then reversed um and and

like untriggered this month and that's something that almost like never happened so it just goes to show that there's a lot of noise but overall there is some there is some weakness and and sluggishness in the labor market paired with what feels like pretty solid growth you know we got the GDP print that came out last week and it's sitting around 3% and it's continuing to to Trend that way um the next quarter like Atlanta fed GDP nowcast which is forecasting this coming quarter um is a bit weaker you know like 2.3% but still solid you know if for getting real GDP above 2% like I don't know that's pretty that's pretty damn good especially within the context of okay A a sluggish labor market so we're not going to see like the wage price spiral Accel accelerate that much at the same time that we're seeing on the

inflation side of things like there's some stickiness there involved um namely like shelter inflation is is the big sticky one but okay the what does the fat actually Target they target personal consumption expenditure like pce not CP and they want that at 2% if you look at like the year of year-over-year print of that on a headline basis we're at 2.1% as of a week ago so 10 basis points above Target like it's pretty good um there's like to I'll admit like if you look at core PC is significantly above that because of that stickiness and shelter but overall like the the big concerns about inflation are cut off um you know if you want to track this in real time my simple framework right now is just looking at oil prices and you

know we're sub 70 and chopping around there that's that's pretty low um on a cyclical basis like I'm not getting worried about inflation until we get at least $100 um barrel of oil so as long as that stays and we see the FED really you know trying to to get underneath this the stagnating labor market to me that paints a picture of Goldilocks um which is really positive for for risk assets as long as it doesn't get meaningfully worse at the downside or inflation re accelerates higher so putting that all together the simple way you can think about this is okay if you're worried about inflation go look at oil and if it's as long as it's below 100 bucks we're probably okay if it's above 100 bucks you can start worrying on the other side you can continue to

look at the labor market like the u3 unemployment rate that Ryan talked about that's one of the cleaner metrics like the monthly jobs numbers get revisioned like they're just very noisy because of how they're they're basically calculated so keep an eye on unemployment rate but it's it's kind of chopping around here um So within that context like it's it's hard not for me to be bullish on on risk at this juncture but you got to be you got to still be wary of those two potential tail risks and and them accelerating yeah would I would still be bullish risk assets here over really any time frame like I think AI is very very transformative but you have to think about the ID idiosyncratic risk that crypto faces and it's not it's you know you're going to this place where the

industry is waiting for this moment where the guy who's selling nfts and who promises to make the United States the capital for Bitcoin mining is thought to be president and then that not happening and all the people that have been suing you for the last four years get to keep on suing you like it's going to be quite a reversal and like I don't know time frames like maybe the pain lasts for a week three months 12 months I don't know but like you've had a nice run um bitcoin's up big it wouldn't be surprised if you it wouldn't surprise me if you got a nice pulled back and then you went sideways for a while yeah I agree for sure like it's again that whole framework is super obvious for like equities and stuff and I'm like super long those but crypto is a bit more

complicated because of this idiosyncratic baking in of of expectations that Ryan's talking about hey guys for today's snippet Miguel is going to take on the age-old question of why does decentralization matter um specifically in terms of AI for this one thanks you you for thank you for joining us Miguel thank you vacho for for inviting me it's great to be here um so why is decentralized AI important well AI is not just any other Tech right uh it has the potential to become a very powerful way to control people um to serve people yes and and it's going to be really helpful and useful but also to control people and

right now we have this olop o a monopoly of a few that is not is not very comforting right to to put such amount of power in the hands of of a few companies um so it it is of strategic importance to change that to open up the market to Foster Innovation um because the moment you bring in more companies into the mix um then you're going to have more more Innovation not just um you know continuous innovation but also you're going to get disruption disruptive innovation and and most importantly uh you have to minimize trust in in those centralized AI providers so that's that's the reason why decentralized AI is such an

important and exciting idea because it's all about minimizing that trust it's all about removing that power away from those few companies um looking forward so that we can hope for for a future where um you know AI can can be run in a safe way on safe infrastructure that is essentially decentralized that no one controls um and therefore it's um it's more fair to to people and doesn't take advantage of of them and how do you see um decentralized AI competing with centralized AI That's a tough question because invariably um decentralized AI is is

going to be slower in terms of of performance so the value has to be somewhere else some has to be in some different aspect of a value proposition um and I think what I was saying before is is uh interesting enough to to be uh to be useful um for example companies right now um have a problem already with with privacy and llms because I mean if if I'm a different company not an AI company and I have I'm sitting all this this wealth of of important um of of you know private information um that is actually probably one of my Assets in the company I don't want to be sharing that

information with the company running thei so privacy it is an important problem that companies face now and decentralized AI when when we understand also with decentralization the Privacy component solves for that problem um decentralization as in a network running things can be also interesting for companies when they want to collaborate um so they want to run collaborative AI for example think about banks for example so they they they're in a difficult position because they're facing um they they have to serve two sets of regulations which are not very compatible so on the one hand they have

you know privacy Bank privacy regulations and data privacy regulations that are all about do not share your customer information with anyone else on the other hand what they have is AML regulations anti money laundering which are about get me insights and find out when a transaction between two Banks is suspicious or not and it's laundering money or not so those two requirements cannot be satisfied without privacy and in this case you would want to run a collaborative Network between the banks that runs you know the centralized AI with this privacy component in so that the banks can run AI algorithm to detect fraudulent um patterns that correspond to illicit money flows and and actually

can can stop them and this is a huge problem uh it's like a trillion dollar problem every every every year a trillion dollar worth of fraudulent transactions go through the through the banking system so this is a huge problem and it could be solved with um decentralized Ai and you can build the same type of collaborative infrastructure where you want to run AI between companies without sharing information you can think the same in other verticals like for example Airlines you could think the same for health so that they can do research together without sharing information from their patients you can think even about cyber security so companies are are sharing cyber security information about the attacks they're suffering and the you know problems that they've had

so that um you create this early awareness or alert network but without really the embarrassment of having to to tell your your peers that yeah we've been hacked and we've lost so much money um and also Supply chains is another um area where you this typically fits very well because you have different companies they kind of work in alignment but also they want to keep certain separation between their private information they they they they don't want to share all their business um information with with each other so all these cases are cases where collaborative AI running on top of decentralized AI would be would be very beneficial and would open up new new use

cases that are not possible with centralized Ai and even for retail um so coming back to to the speed question um I think speed will become less important as AI grows in intelligence and it becomes more and more independent um right now a relationship with AI is is like when you hire this new intern and you know they you have to supervise them essentially they you have to break down problems into smaller pieces feed them with the you know with the problems and then you have to double check on the answers that's the way we interact with LMS nowadays but as they become more and more intelligent this will change this relationship will move to coach coaching which is like a basketball coach you

know they're just just giving some higher level instructions but then players or in this case the AI is doing also its own part with a decent amount of Independence I would argue that this is where agents are more or less um located in the scale but then you go beyond that to um mentoring which is now you're you adopt this kind of more strategic position you're no longer operational at the same level as the AI you're kind of you know giving some strategic guidance as to what is important what not you're thinking about providing them with the right information and contacts so that the in this case the llms or or the AI can properly function but you're not you

know hands deep into the operational stuff and then the final stage is um is delegation that's when you define like a playground and inside of that playground you give full freedom to the AI like you say look this is your budget I want you to surprise me with a with a trip U for these holidays and then the AI does the rest you know with that budget he contacts the different a agencies finds out information learns about you and so on and gives you the the the surprise so as we do that and we and and move across those different stages speed is less of a matter because the interactions become less frequent but also more meaningful

more interesting but privacy becomes more interesting and and more necessary because those interactions are now really sensitive you're giving really sensitive information as a as a you know when you delegate than compared to to when you just um you know supervise um so again that's another reason why I think even in a centralized environment uh in the long run uh privacy enhancing Technologies and decentralized AI is going to make sense because because those interactions are going to transition towards um towards that point where speed is less important and privacy is more important and decentralization as well like who controls that service and who can take advantage of that service so so um yeah

that's kind of in a natural why I think um you know we we can compete with centralized AI perfect and you kind of gave the answer to my next question but I want to hear it again um why is million building um decentralized AI or building in decentralized AI yeah I think it's it's it's the challenge of the 21st century I think there's there's nothing so important right now to to get right as a society because our our whole future hinges on on how this challenge would get will get resolved so I I think this is a transformational technology is going to impact every every Niche every

vertical every Market uh the same way and so the decisions we make around who controls this this technology um and and about minimizing the trust we place on the infrastructure that provision this service on the infrastructure that manipulates all this sensitive information um it it's going to be like really really important I think as as a as a company working in both decentralization and privacy it is our responsibility to to tackle this challenge perfect thank you so much Miguel you're welcome okay what about alts are alts cooked if Kamala Harris

wins that's my main question because I don't care about Bitcoin at all I only own alts so I think very [ __ ] cooked excuse me I think that the down I mean I just think of like putting putting on my macro hat which I like try not to wear um but I just think of like the up and up down beta capture of these things and like they have a lot of down beta and they like don't have as much up beta as they used to have so like you you end up the ratio just does hasn't been working for a long time I feel for like more than six months um so I feel like it's unless you get the clear like the all clear from a trump win I feel like it's really really hard to justify going out on the risk

Spectrum it's hard it's hard to get excited about alt because I feel like there's there's like two kind of there's a lot of downside factors and and very little up I I feel like like there's it's all kind of hanging on this ideal of of of a trump when clearing the regulatory landscape but there's basically like yeah there's that plus I just feel like I don't know how you guys feel about this but it just feels like a lot of a lot of altcoin launches are are kind of broken um in terms of just like their prices their value how that values acur etc etc like you know I was I was as you mentioned earlier at the show like I joined in on those analyst calls and you know one of them that you guys talked about was like jeto which is just like such a fantastic protocol um and

it's doing really good things for the salon and network and you know it's it's creating real economic value but then I look at the token price and and the fully delighted value and I'm like well [ __ ] like you know the the gains have already been made on this it's a fantastic protocol but like what am I going to do about it you know I don't want to buy this thing there's a lot of whack evaluations I think that the better example is the the um igen token yeah right yeah like like a like literally a valueless thing like has no path to Value acral has all this tvl and doesn't do anything with it and what is it for5 billion valuation like the the market is getting smarter like you're watching this l2's launch at lower and lower value valuations um Market's learning always slower than I

anticipated yeah it's like these yeah yeah so you kind of you have to fix that part and the election part so it's like man this is tough right now yeah for what it's worth like Ryan you said it they've just been getting smacked like scroll launched just horrible PA it's no one's even given it I think the first one was Stark that launched and people were like oh like aird Drop Factor on Stark you know let's take a risk then ZK syn nobody even said that and it was like we've recognized now that we've gone a bit far um jeto I don't know I feel like it can get a bit sillier not Financial advice but uh igen is yeah definitely four Bill

still start at 10 I think um brutal yeah people don't even do like the uh yeah like you say the airdrop fractal you know like like buy the initial claim dump and then like sell it three days later like I used to run that all the time and it was awesome last cycle but now everybody's smart about it and they're like oh we're not even going to do that part we're just going to bleed to zero yeah I I completely agree I think even for myself like I've had a complete lack of interest in 99% of alts for probably the past year honestly because of those these reasons and I think you know we're seeing it as like a as a market and as like a a sector and you see it on X the everything app quite a lot now of this this ongoing discussion

of like should we bring back icos like do we need to just like unlock all insiders day one and like just push those ftvs down naturally due to the market um I think these are it's a tough question because it's like you can you know unlock investors even sooner than they already do and I don't know that that's like the you know perfectly correct answer but I also don't know that like going just right back to icos which we've had problems with in the past is is the correct answer either there's probably some blend of things that have not been quite tried yet um to improve the current scenario but certainly like Stark going to 30 billion fdv was a clear signal that these things were incredibly incredibly overpriced and just made no sense I'm gonna say two things first of all I think icos it

would take us around three months for those to get the point where it's like okay like initial maybe raises are at 100 Mil 200 mil and then we get back to the three four Bill three months maximum um second thing I think Andrew Kang was talking about that unlocking everybody like all investors day one and they're like I think that's probably the stupidest thing that you can do like if you give somebody a 10x from day one and you're like you're unlocked but you actually don't have to stay in um like no vesting schedule that was it it seems like willfully ignorant or like I don't want to hurt his feelings but it just seems plain stupid to argue that we should unlock people

from day one everybody yeah I mean people people might hate me for this but like it feels like I don't know like we're just getting we're coming back full circle to just like the traditional Venture Capital framework you know which is just like stage gate liquidity events based on performance of the company like like that's like like why are we putting the cart before the horse here and just giving everybody tokens when the product hasn't even found product Market fit but you know you follow that logic and it's like yeah well we don't want to go the other way and just give everybody you know liquidity event on day one but the other side of that is like almost it's getting back to like square one of just like a traditional Venture Capital framework I think if I were forced to yeah if you were like forced to design a

system where you could unlock everyone day one you would want I think you have to pair it with like public doxing you have to match it with ultimate transparency and maybe that's maybe that's net better than the current model that we have in trafi markets where like you get options and you're locked and it takes a long time to get out of the thing but you know there's a reason that locks exist but like public shaming is also very effective right so like if you knew everyone on the team like their public address and they were all tagged on ether skan or whatever and you could see live who's selling and who isn't like I don't know that could be just as

good and the market could front run you right like once you see the CEO of some project that you really like selling like okay you can dump before him but we already kind of have that everybody knows that investors are selling Tia and like we try to shame them but it doesn't work it's just like they're like okay like bernes has bull posted from $12 all the way down to whatever it is at right now we've shamed the entire people were calling for him to go to jail at $4 and he doesn't care at all it's just like hey guys buy Tia right now it's a great token well do you know they're at their specific like are their addresses in the docs in the docs no in the ation yeah like put the addresses in in

the documentation or something like that you know like we have a very very like most people are just guessing they're like this wallet appears to be investors this might be happening yeah you know what I find funny is that like how little we actually use like this like onchain visible world that we have like I okay so speaking you know we don't want to rag on a too much but like when that whole thing happened where like some lock tokens got transferred I was like wait how is it possible for them to sell lock tokens can't you just lock them in the smart contract and then I got told that we don't actually do that because of legal reasons or something so we just like escrow them and I'm like what like we have this technology to lock the tokens and we don't use them are you

kidding me right now to be fair and I'm not defending them they had some weird I I pretty like I'm not a lawyer but I'm pretty sure they got some weird advice because they were told like oh you have to wait four months like to make it transferable so I think they just had they just had like some guy was like joking around with them and mocking or something because like you said it makes no sense why would you have to legally not do smart contracts but that I think that was probably like the start of the end for Ian we'll see how they turn out but not locking your own tokens in a smart cont silly getting I was just gonna say I I like I do think Ryan like you're making a great Point here about just transparency of

insiders like and their wallets it it is incredibly ironic like how transparent and visible blockchains are meant to be and yet we like like you said you don't know who like wh which wallet is the CEO's wallet and like how many tokens they have like you can guess you can go and look at the amounts and like check the allocation schedule and like maybe figure out a some of them but um there's not like a clear list of like these are all the addresses of the Insiders and you can't check when they're all selling um but I can go and look up you know when Brian Armstrong sells his coin stock it's it's easy to find online so it's hilarious to me that that like dichotomy exists when it's supposed to be far transparent when it's all available on chain that would probably be I think incredibly helpful it would

take away a lot of that illusion of like you know this guy's bull posting this token up 10,000x on Twitter but he's been dumping it for months like it would take away a lot of that like just complete Clash of of ideas that I think people get when they read about things versus like what is actually happening to be fair if you're on evbm you can spend around 30 minutes and figure out everybody's address now because of friend Tech like back in the day everybody connected their thing so if it's an evm token you can figure it out I don't know if assuming they don't use some other address to do all of their um all right let's go back to we we never finished our conversation we said

alss to zero if Cala wins if Trump wins what are we saying I wanna basically I want to talk a bit more about the election because I haven't gotten to say exactly what I think but I want everybody else to say their opinion first and then I want to my opin yeah okay I'll add one more thing and then and then let's hear your thoughts but um this is something I threw around in the chat before we got on here but like what if okay what if Kamala wins um and you know alss go to zero but all you know we start to see this this this trend of consolidation of capital into Bitcoin and ethereum because they're the only like greenlighted assets and we actually see a bid there and like I don't know I've never actually looked at like Bitcoin eth dominance together but like

if we just separate them for this argument I don't know like if you just saw them both run up super hard would be just absolute max pain and maybe the only reason that you get like a you know an increase like a a decent move in in the like I know so eth ratio is is because of is because of that and and that salana just barely missed the mark of of being given that um that green light as an AET class that would be tough I don't know how likely that is I don't know what you guys think but E's flows have just been so so bad like the ETF flows have just been yeah what's up zero Z zero Bud nobody's buying them no oh it's and what I wanted to my hot take is that election doesn't matter and

the cycle has been the same cycle it's always been Bitcoin is leading if you look at any like chart that's whatever Soul BTC Etc it's actually not up that much over the year like we have very clear BTC dominance and then we're going to flow into I guess like riskier and riskier assets throughout I don't think anything has do you get what I'm trying to say like I don't think the Cycles meaningfully change just because there's an election or just because the institutions are here what do you think like it's the same do you guys know that chart where it's like BTC alts meme coins nfds yeah yeah I mean it feels like every four we get to the juncture of everybody requestioning is there a cycle is the cycle over and more often not it

gets proven to be still intact so I think there's a fair point there we always overthink it in the moment but then you look back and you're like oh it was obvious you know Bitcoin runs first and then everything else runs later yeah cycle over is different than BTC going down 20% right cycle over kind of implies like 70% down move for the majors um so yeah that's that's not in my expectations and I actually think that the what like you know you're not supposed to say this time is different I totally disagree I think every time is different and that's what makes it interesting and that's like where the alpha is and um the reason this time is different is because you have institutional players Touching The Benchmark asset of the entire asset

class that everything else moves on um they're arbing it they're minimizing like the you see it in the volatility profile of Bitcoin it's clearly changed um it's it's down to the right um on the annualized fall and implied Falls there so um I I think that look you can always find similarities in the cycle but I think this cycle is clearly different because of you know the institutional adoption of this asset um and that and that that's what's interesting about it I'm curious what you guys think about um you know like when we got these big ETF flows um in into Bitcoin like I don't know 10 months ago or whatever it was there was talk about oh you know

we're not going to see an ALT season anymore because traditionally what happens is people get rich on bitcoin and then move some of those profits you know further out the risk curve but if that's all stuck away and siloed and in TF gains does that transfer into alt gains what do you guys think about that one like do you think it could still happen or because you know my way of thinking it is like okay but whoever's there's always a seller to every buyer you know so there there has to be somebody on the other side that's that's selling you know that Bitcoin to whoever is buying it on the other side and they might go do something else with it but I'm curious what you guys think yeah personally I don't know that I've ever taken it so literally to mean that everyone who owns a big fat bag of

Bitcoin is selling it to buy Pepe when when when Bitcoin goes up maybe that's true um I don't know if that's necessarily the case I would have I would have a strong feeling that like it's a lot of you know it it draws attention you know people come look they they bring in additional Capital because assets are up like it's it's the same old thing of like you know they hated it at 60k but they'll love to buy it Handover fist at 85k and I think it's just one of those things like you know more attention comes when price Rises and like people get more excited and they have maybe they have extra cash on the sides maybe new participants come in and they you know they see the shiny thing and maybe they don't even want to buy Bitcoin because now it's you know

it's at alltime Highs but they decide hey I want to buy Pepe or I want to buy eth or buy this other thing that's smaller and it and it can run up you know higher higher multiples than a than a Bitcoin could but yeah I don't I don't know that like that there's so much backing behind this theory that like all these all these Bitcoin millionaires are selling their Bitcoin every time it goes up so they can buy alts I I just don't know that that makes any sense it's hard to know I don't have the data it it's it's hard it's hard to know um yeah it's hard it's it's hard to know no opinion I agree with you though I I I'm not sure if I think that people get rich on bitcoin and I always thought it was more of a catchup thing where

like and then you're like Aunt finds out that there's you can actually make like a gillion percent on Olympus for and then that's how like she makes a Tik Tok about it you know that's how it works and it's not like like people buying Bitcoin and they're like wow now I have $15,000 I'm going to put 50% of that in Pepe that to me makes less sense than because even now like this weekend I talked to somebody which was huge for me but um and I was like I told them what I do and they were like oh is that even like still a thing like there's a vast majority of the world out there that is just like bitcoin's at alltime highs last week I I cried tears of joy and

this guy doesn't even know that it's like doing well so to me it doesn't make a lot of sense I think he's just going to be like you said Danny 85k he's like wow I need some of this right now or like Pepe or whatever yeah the the the mental picture that I have today is and especially probably of the younger crowd is like they see that happen and I I just think that the impression that they have and maybe if they have any memories of a prior cycle it's like wow when that happened like the dogcoin went crazy and went on SNL and like people made 1,000x on that thing I'm going to buy like the new dogcoin and then they like go look for they go in the trenches right and they look like they look for their favorite meme and they buy it like I

just don't Envision these people like you know these these participants that come in and they're like okay time to like drop my 5K in my bank account into Bitcoin oh nobody cares about Sovereign currency they just want to buy skib toilet or whatever and then you know get a 15x or something which makes a lot of sense as well but I don't know that's that's just Ryan do you know what skib toilet means no I do I very um Danny what's our last topic I think we open see or what do you want to do poly Market we could talk about poly Market we I guess we haven't brought that up so

I guess we have an election event I think there's been a lot of controversy about the value of prediction markets post a 2024 election considering I think I'd have to pull up the the dashboard if you want to pull up our dashboard um box show that breakdown but I believe it's like something like 70% plus of all volumes are still on um election or political related markets on poly market today so the big concern here is like post election is it is it dead until 2028 like um you know if you go back and look at auger are we doomed to see the same result here or can they achieve you know adoption via Sports via like pop culture stuff um those are

maybe some of the you know best examples I've seen but I don't know if there's well I'm gonna give some background yeah I'm and it's not it's not just Politics as well most of it is literally just elections like if you look over here oi today 330 mil is just on elections and politics is another 90 mil and then the remainder is like sports is 10 Mill um crypto stem Mill everything else is really like negligible um yeah I'm not like we talk about this it feels like every morning nowadays because election is so soon but I'm definitely like I don't think that Sports makes a lot of sense on these

betting apps I think it's just not as fun as like doing a parlay on your phone NFA but um yeah what do you guys think feeling let's startop yeah I think they need to if they want to continue the success after the election they need to reframe how they sell it a little bit because when you look at like where some of the other Deen speculation occurs it's like it's basically the same as um people like buying out of the money options you know where it's just like okay you you go find something where it's like you know people are starting to speculate on like yeah what words would Trump say in in a given speech or like you know you can extrapolate that into a whole bunch of different things and and then you're

like all right similar to you know some of the excitement of of like hitting yeah like a multile parlay in sports betting like you know that's what really gets people to show up every day even though the odds are like ridiculously low like I think if they can reframe The Narrative around this that same idea um of allowing a place for people to basically speculate on like out ofthe money calls on like random things um as opposed to like you know going to find like this major event that's occurring and where there's like 5050 odds like I don't know there's not a lot of edge there to be found um to be honest in the same way that like in sports betting you know like actually betting on the winter like there's not that much Edge to be found I find um versus just like doing

something kind of funky and weird um more at the risk or so you know I feel like yeah they if they can reframe The Narrative a little bit about what you can do on there where it's like it's a place to I don't know like pull in the people that are doing zero DDE like options in trafi or like yeah like that or like sports yeah like multi- like parlay player type people you can repeat that market so I feel like if they lean into that better they could retain some excitement but I don't know that's that's a lot of marketing branding work to do yeah I thought they would do well with live stream and I agree with you by the way like they need to Rebrand the whole thing I thought it would make sense to do live stream betting and like influencer betting like oh is kais not

gonna say Phantom TX on Twitch or something um but we looked at the data for this as well and it's like ridiculously low I think it's it's supposed to be like it's under pop culture which is it's negligible it's like four mil volume out of whatever 500 600 most so it's it's like I don't think maybe they'll be able to go into it but to me it doesn't feel like something people want to bet on um Sports is something people love betting on women's tennis and Indonesian second league soccer that's stuff they want to bet on but not on influences so unless they can figure it out yeah not to make everything about meme coins or parlays but I think the

points there ring pretty true like when you look at the average person who's like doing sports bets like they're they're you know getting more and more into these parlay bets and those make those businesses more money than the regular bets do um I think the the biggest the biggest drawback for poly market today is like if you lose elections and there's not these this big Market forever to bet on um there's not unlimited upside for trades like you can't hit a 100x THX on this thing and when you're already in like this crypto space like you can just jump over into the trenches and trade things at stupid tiny market caps and hope that they do that 100,000x on like a sort of lottery ticket type of bet um so I think that's really something that like they need to

figure out a way to offer as a product is you know if it's leverage or if it's like some kind of parlay system where you can like tie these things together give yourself lower odds of hitting but a higher outcome um reward um that's that's probably how you're going to get like you know the basically the degenerate people who are into all these applications to to spend more money on them or make it more um composable into the rest of crypto like I let me borrow on my whatever my I I have a question on that point that I want to while I have the the research gigar brains here um how do you guys feel about the fact that like the most successful crypto app is on polygon CU I'm just looking right now

like madic just hit an alltime at the same time that like the most successful crypto app is on polygon and is getting like what does that say about this whole like I don't know like um you know what's the the fat L1 thesis or whatever like how do you feel about that because that is pretty wild to me before Ryan's gonna give his opinion I just want to say it's not only on polygon they also named the app after po polygon like they were so in love with the chain that they we're gonna name this polygon Market poly Market um Ryan you can go ahead yeah I think it's the most successful in terms of mainstream mind share but like so I I've known about predicted for a long time um and it was

on the Bloomberg terminal and everyone looked at predicted odds in the 2016 and 2020 elections and it had like less than a hundred million dollars in volume right and um and and uh poly Market has totally leapfrogged it like these things are very easy to site the market price is very easy to site but like it really hasn't translated into like like meaningful dollars into those systems so like What's the total volume on polym Market it's it's a billion and um there's that depending on how you want to count that volume it perhaps it's double counted if you wanted to count that volume like as you would on a DEX or in a trading system so

um you know I think it's I think it's filled a niche like I think it has like really like impressive mainstream mind share but I don't know if I would frame it as like A6 from a dollar outcome perspective it I don't think it's been that successful and you need a lot of things for the chain to be successful like you need like trading things Drive fees to the chain so it's yeah you know when you need Priority Access and you really don't need that for these bet markets yeah I mean I as I asked that because it brings up this question of like you know what it there's what's good for as a crypto app and like adoption versus like being a good investment because like there's all this happening but like again the madic tokens is down only and like there's no polygon token or

anything or sorry poly Market token so it's like okay that's awesome and you know I think about like stable coins too you know like that's the big the big winner in terms of use case but again like there's not a lot of ways to really enjoy the upside of that yeah you know what I'll I'll maybe add on a bit to what Ryan said I um I think poly Market's a really good app um can you imagine like I wish they had also done a phone app I think they would have done such like so much better and if they weren't on polygon they would have also done much better like that's I think they would have done maybe double the volume but um first of all I guess it doesn't matter what chain you launch on like that's the very obvious thing but the second thing is like Ryan said

there's some apps that work well with the rest of the chain and some that don't like pump. fun radium Jupiter uh and any trading bot these just work very very very well together like they're symbiotic um you can even like consider them the same ecosystem or like secondary tertiary apps to each other there's obviously no clear way for poly Market to get into that they're they're not building lending Primitives on poly Market Unfortunately they should like if I'm polygon I would have just leaned into it as much as possible build out like two three more apps because you have money you're a massive chain do a grants program you have one successful app like build try and build a ecosystem around they didn't but

um and now we're seeing more and more people more and more chains try and capture this like breakout consumer app and I don't think polygon ever really tried to do that I think Peter field was just somehow in love with polygon or like Founders fund and that's why they launched over there Ryan you can call me an idiot if I'm wrong but that's like what I understand they have some weird fascination with polygon which is why it launched on polygon there's no other reason though uh I'm not sure but it's not it's not Peter seel who's making these Investments like it's his it's the people underneath him I don't think he cares about crypto at all I think Peter teal cares a lot about crypto specifically polymark but no even if he doesn't what I'm saying is like they

just got lucky and now we're seeing like a bunch of chains trying and copy them come up with some breakout consumer app well the thing that I want I want to go back to my point about what matters for the bottom line of a chain like and it's my my thinking on this has changed um when Instagram said that they were going to use R weave and ethereum and salana to do nfts late in 2021 when they were like pivoting to the metaverse thing like I thought that was a really big deal and like yeah let's say if they onboarded all one billion Maus on Instagram and like they all got an nft um yeah that would be a really big deal but none of them are paying for Priority Access to State um the real like Revenue

drivers for the underlying l1s are like the DG and the trading firms like they want to make quick money over here then they pay for Priority Access to come over here and then they leverage up over here like they're constantly interacting with the chain and they need to like literally buy specific Slots of state to maximize profit um which is you know you're seeing uh meev tips uh as a percentage of like total revenue for these chains start start to dominate so um a successful app like an nft app where I don't know you buy 12 nfts a year as a user is like never going to drive meaningful revenue for the underlying for the underlying chain

especially in this like very low fee environment that we're we're going to probably be in for the foreseeable future it's like the it's the defi trading apps that are going to be the real Revenue drivers so like not that surprising to me that predict it wasn't enough for polygon or it hasn't been enough so far yeah I think even in even in the case to back to your point Felix like where pump fun is driving meaningful like RV to Salon of the chain just and meme coins in general like trading of of meme coins is is doing appreciable things to tips and activity on non salana still though like if if you had the ability to trade like the value of pump fun relative to Soul like

that would have been the the far better trade you know back to the summer seeing that it was declining like you had an opportunity there where if it was if there was some public asset um backing pump fun um that would have been the far better asset to buy than than soul in this case I I do think to your point like while there there is value that is going back to the chain in the case of of something like a pump fund just due to the massive amount of of trading and Arbitrage and Bots and tips and all these things um ultimately the apps are capturing most of this they're closer to the user they're they're charging 1% on on volumes that run through their app and they're making an absolute crap ton of money off of that so I think that's going to continue to be the case and if

like in the future if soul is not the right place for them which I mean I'm just making this up but like hypothetically if salana is no longer the blockchain that that pump fund wanted to be on they could just as easily jump somewhere else and if they have all the user mind share like those users are going to go with them and it's the same for any other Chain by the way that's my bull case for crypto is that these apps can launch slap on A5 % fee make billions Millions but like pump funds May 160 170 mil that's like pure to the team I think that pulls in like crypto lost sexiness to AI but I think it comes back well the money comes back yeah and I feel like the last piece of

that puzzle from there is like okay now that you got cash flows going into Apps if they launch a token but you can actually have that token have a claim on those cash flows then you got some going but you know as of now it's just governance coins mostly and then that's where it ties back to the election yes exactly I think for the foreseeable future we I also don't think like even if there wasn't a legal aspect to it I'm not a lawyer this is not legal advice I think it still wouldn't matter I don't think that teams want to let go of that value um these like they make millions and millions I don't even think they'd want to give up like 10 20% of that token holders what do you think depends if they want their token to do well

guess yeah I mean I guess there's a scenario here right there's no pump fund token today so like we could speculate on a potential value but if they gave none of the money back then like why would you buy it but so if one did exist like you'd want to be trading those revenues that are like flowing to the business not not all straight into the pockets of the team that would not be a very good business to buy yeah yeah yeah it's like you know just like any company you know it's like do you give out a dividend or do you reinvest the profits and as a holder that token like depending on that composition like you'll either want to hold it or not hold it and you want a balance between those two things but if if they were a company like given they've made over 100

million in a you know six months or so it would be worth quite a lot so it would be worth quite a lot yeah are we good Ryan Danny Felix anything we want to bring up before I end it before I wrap it up no I just yeah thanks for inviting me it's ton of fun I love uh love listening to you guys love to be a part of it um it's fun to talk about more in the weeds crypto stuff um you know we keep a pretty high level at for guidance of just like the impact of macro on crypto so it's fun to get into it is it ironic that we collectively all said alt are garbage I don't know the viewers can decide is

again ALS are alss aren't garbage if you tried I did not say that I said Felix thanks for coming on um I do feel kind of bad that we spoke mostly about the election I really wanted to do like a half half episode where it was like a bit about the election and then the second half was mostly about other stuff but I really really appreciate you coming on and I will say forward guidance and before that on the margin are the only macro pods that I can listen to without me going like uh you know like typically I'm like uh but those two are the only ones Maybe maybe it's because I it's block works but I think mostly it's because I like I actually like the

Pod so thanks for coming appreciate that yeah we'll have to do it again and we can talk more about in the trenches stuff yeah I think I think so all right Ryan do you have anything you want to say finally final words no I'm surprised you were so quiet today you're ex macro guy no was I quiet yeah you were very quiet you didn't give any of your strong opinions I I came out and said Trump was going to win in in a landslide and then he said that yeah crypto would go absolute to the doldrums if camalo wents those are pretty cool zero yeah yeah that's true I guess you didn't maybe yeah those are pretty spicy honestly relative to what I think I've been seeing yeah yeah I hedge my bets in my prediction so I can be right regardless

that's the real secret to building an audience always hedging so you're right regardless one thing I will say is that I really like macro because anytime data is like doesn't go your way it's oh data is too noisy it doesn't make exactly I really like that that's what I want to do yeah always be correct even when you're wrong [Music]