ARK Analysts call $1M BTC, $180K ETH | Bullish Crypto Price Predictions

15 Feb 2022 · 1:16:35

ARK Invest analysts Yassine Elmandjra and Frank Downing join Bankless to walk through the crypto section of ARK's Big Ideas report, which projects that one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030 and that ether's market cap could pass $20 trillion within ten years. Elmandjra argues that blockchains trade decentralization against features, and builds the bitcoin estimate from use cases such as digital gold, corporate treasuries, institutional allocation and seizure resistance. Downing compares DeFi revenue per employee with traditional finance, frames ether as earning fees from onchain financial services, and argues that NFTs could grow from collectibles into dynamic digital property for gaming and the metaverse.

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hey bankless nation welcome to another state of the nation edition david this is going to be a bullish episode are you ready to be bullish man oh always ryan it's my natural state uh and we're gonna get some extra help to do that today too uh yeah so we have uh two of the analysts be behind a report just put out by arc invest and so if you you remember the the arc folks we had kathy wood on the podcast a few months ago and with her an analyst yasin who covers this space we have two of the analysts who just published a 2022 update on prices and we gotta say it's maybe the most bullish price report that we've seen like i'm i'm almost worried david that uh these prices that

we're about to say are uh more bullish than anything we've ever talked about on bankless yeah what are these price targets for bitcoin and eth yeah we are pretty coming in with a hot prediction of a million dollar per bitcoin and 180 000 per eth which is really bullish now granted we have between eight and ten years to get those price prices it's not coming next month it's not next month it's not next year uh but still at the end of the day when it's when people like arc who you know are famous for actually being able to look into the future rather than look towards the path to guide the future come in with a hot prediction like that i want to understand the math and the analysis and the reasoning behind these numbers because these aren't just some random

crypto youtubers pulling some numbers out of their wherevers like these are these are arc analysts who say that these are ridiculous numbers and so we want to see why are they actually not ridiculous because there's a whole report which is also linked in the show notes as well uh if you guys want to follow along there's a whole report uh to guide some of these models and predictions so we got the receipts here we're going to go through uh the the slides go through the rationale of why 180k eth and why one million dollars per bitcoin uh in in just a minute uh david before we get in got to talk about our friends at notional finance so i'm gonna i'm about to sound like uh grandpa defy here once again back in my day don't say that back in my day okay there was no such thing in d5

as a fixed-rate loan okay we had volatile like every block adjustment variable rate loans for just about everything and so if you took out a loan at like you know three percent uh one day it could crank up to like ten percent the next and the same defy summary got to 60. yeah i know and the same is true with interest right you could be making like nice you know five percent gains one day and suddenly you're down to one percent you're like what happened well now the kids these days have the benefit of fixed apy loans okay and notional is putting one out there in d5 uh look at this 432 million dollars locked in this protocol 279 million loan value

uh 8.57 fixed apy loan on up to a year for usdc that's what you can get at notional right now uh pretty awesome to see yeah the last time i saw a fixed rate uh uh loan platform it was down at like three and a half percent uh this is the highest fixed rate uh apy platform that i've ever seen uh there is a link in the show notes to go check it out uh if you are interested in getting a fixed rate loan on your crypto assets there you go that that's it guys so uh head over to notional and um and make that happen get some of those fixed rate loans uh and uh and lend some of your your assets as well uh david gotta ask you the question we start every episode

with every state of the nation that is which is what is the state of the nation today uh it's bullish ryan state of the nation is is very bullish um yeah i mean bankless listeners will know that ryan and i are bullish but like we're always bullish so sometimes like we start making sick of hearing yeah so we start making content we start like interviewing people in like washington dc or we start you know asking vitalik about the future of the ethereum roadmap and then sometimes we forgot to forget to talk about like how incredibly bullish we are uh and it's also nice to bring in the arc analysts because they come in it from a different perspective uh and and so we we like people who are bullish and want to talk about bullish things so ryan the state of the nation today is

bullish all right well i'm ready to get more bullish and our guests are as well so guys we will be back with the arc analyst in uh arc analysts talking about one million bitcoin price target 180 k eth price target in just a minute before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible so you've got some money and you want to spend you me shopping now bro when you should be saving you'll never buy a house at this rate but what if you could spend and save at the same time for the enlightened kind with inquiring minds a new world awaits set yourself free with completely

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if you want to bridge your assets quickly and securely go to across dot to to bridge your assets between eth optimism arbitrary or boba networks hey guys we are back with the analyst from arkhanvest want to introduce you to yaseen almadra he's been on the podcast before you seen joined arc invest in july 2018 uh he was arc's blockchain crypto analyst still is his research focuses on crypto assets of course as well as a bitcoin mining i've i've been told you seen is the bitcoin bull in the group uh also joining who's joining us is frank downing frank joined ark in april 2021 he uh was an analyst for ark's next

generation internet strategies focused on cloud computing software as a service now crypto assets guys the two of you wrote a fantastic report really excited to dive into it welcome to bankless thanks for having us uh honored to be here good to be back again this time with uh with my partner in crime frank uh so we're really excited to share some of this this moon juice that we have for you good description moon juice uh all right you know what i think just maybe getting some background on both of you would be would be useful before we dive into the the details of this big ideas uh report maybe listeners want to peek in the the inside life of an arc analyst so what

does it actually mean to be an analyst at arc what's the day-to-day you've seen why don't we start with you sure i mean i guess the best way to describe it is it's really just the front row seat on all things tech uh by way of background i studied engineering and finance when i was in school and fell down the crypto rabbit hole uh in in early 2017 and kind of told myself okay i'm committed to finding an opportunity that will allow me to basically fall down the rabbit hole even further uh and stumbled upon arc through twitter and ultimately uh here i am about four years later as an analyst that that really has a lot of flexibility in terms of

discovering kind of the different multiple rabbit holes within crypto so i'd say much of the work is divided between just day-to-day kind of research of okay let's think kind of top-down long-term theses of how we think the industry is evolving uh combined with you know more of the product development side of okay we are asset managers and what how do we answer the question of what's the best way to gain exposure uh to this asset class frank how about you so you've been at arc for uh almost up to a year now so what's the day-to-day like for you what would you add to what you seen said yeah getting up on a year now it's it's pretty crazy how fast time has flown um but i actually somebody seen i studied

business and computer science and um fell into the crypto rabbit hole also in 2017 um building my i spent pretty much all the cash i had to build a few gpu mining rigs at my house and had to convince my parents that i wasn't going to set the house on fire well that is the same exact story how i got into ethereum at the same time yeah um but but the the day-to-day at arc i mean it was it was pitched to me as uh essentially getting paid to to study and report on what you're most interested in which uh for me is both crypto and cloud computing my previous career i was a data engineer and a cloud engineer and i now get to do both of those day to

day at arc which is awesome we spend our weeks kind of chalked up into a few different segments mondays are always portfolio reviews looking at our holdings and in aggregate what happened over the market in the past week the middle of the week is more this long form long-term thinking research that you've seen mentioned and then fridays we have a brainstorm with um a group of advisors and external parties to help battle test our thinking and talk about the latest and greatest things and crypto even just over my time here crypto has taken up a larger and larger portion of that brainstorm which is always pretty fun well guys it sounds like you guys both have dream jobs that you have a ton of fun in uh and while right before we get

and into this report i just kind of want to also give context to the listeners about what this report actually is it's not just about crypto it's about everything that arc pays attention to uh and which is a lot um and so there's even more than just crypto in here cryptos actually does one of many sections in here as well but did you guys have are your guys's fingerprints in this report did you guys help like write this or how were you guys involved with the actual creation of this report sure so i mean maybe taking a step back and giving context as to how we're divided um across the analyst team so we are kind of a traditional uh asset management shop where uh our analysts are divided by sectors they're actually

divided by technology platforms and uh we have three uh i'm sorry five technology platforms that we uh effectively center our research around um so uh you know crypto is one of those we have genomics dna sequencing energy robotics ai deep learning and so our analysts are kind of experts in these thematic platforms so there are five thematic platforms that all have 14 emerging technologies that come out of those platforms and you can see here there are you know a dozen or so sections that touch on it uh and each analyst effectively is is the one you know drafting and and building out

their respective sections okay so uh just to reiterate you seen you are the big bitcoin bull so it sounds like you had a lot of your fingerprints on the bitcoin section and then frank you're the the ethereum ethol uh were you also involved frank with the nft metaverse side as well yeah it was uh myself plus our uh other next generation internet analyst nick groos and andrew kim who also work on that team we try to be as collaborative as possible particularly because a lot of these technologies are converging and crypto is especially when you get into web3 metaverse is so tightly integrated to the consumer internet uh that nick plays as much a hand in that section as we play

um and we you know the the crypto overview section the first crypto section that's in there was really the whole team working on it um and it's uh it's awesome to see that report come out and get to talk about it in more long-form environments like this it really is the culmination of like six plus months worth of work to put that together well you guys are certainly making our job easier at bank list to report on why these big ideas are so fun to talk about so let's go ahead and dive right into it and it sounds like this show is going to come in three sections and also i'm going to start reformatting this obs that's why the screen is moving around for these viewers out there um so we're going to talk about bitcoin first and then we're going to talk about eth

second but then nft metaverse third so you see it's probably going to have most of the floor for the first half of the show and then we'll finish up with frank for the ethereum metaverse stuff for the second half of the show but this is this this is probably the section that you were talking about where everyone probably had their hands in these first few slides about blockchains and crypto assets and it's just a really nice slide to start on first and again if listeners want to go and click that link in the show notes so they can follow along this is slide number 41 but this is just the bold case for crypto and blockchain at large and the title of this slide is public blockchains could transform every traditional asset class and this is the metaphor that i think maybe people have heard before where for you know we had

all these different communication mediums the radio the tv the newspaper the uh and and then the internet came along and then all of a sudden all those things got bundled up into the internet and this slide is doing the same thing for financial assets uh is this basically is the conclusion of uh arc and and also this part of the report just that every single financial asset will eventually become a crypto asset i think that's that's spot on in terms of the framing i think part of the reason for this slide is that usually the framing to describe crypto assets is entirely new asset class is one that suggests that it's distinct from traditional asset classes right and spans every super class so you know we

published a paper in 2017 that basically suggested that crypto assets can't really fit under the equity bucket or the bond bucket or the physical commodities bucket uh it's not really a capital asset or a store of value asset or consumable transformative asset it's almost like all and all the same so the initial premise is not only is crypto distinct from traditional asset classes but it also is going to transform traditional asset classes and it's going to affect the same asset classes that doesn't really fit under uh this was actually a framing that was introduced by biology cernavasanan who like quite eloquently explains how we're seeing a generational shift from

internet to crypto uh in the same way that we saw shift from like desktop to the internet and the analogy that he likes to give is like blockchains are to scarcity what the internet was to information and this fundamentally changes kind of how software is developed how it's funded how it's monetized how it's used and we're moving from kind of online to on chain and by moving online to on chain then we have these sort of assets that can that of course can represent scarcity that can represent ownership that effectively uh you know that affect traditional asset classes so whether that's synthetic equity exposure through crypto equities whether it's

kind of the crypto commodities through kind of the ability uh to to send bandwidth or storage uh we're seeing the rise of nfts and crypto art store value assets or you know maybe the traditional kind of corporate structure endows so all of these really are our derivatives of traditional asset classes that cryptos distinct from but in turn we're actually seeing that it's impacting them frank if you want to add anything onto that go ahead but i also want to throw to you the question i'm assuming at some time in your role in arc you guys have to explain concepts like this to people who are still trying to wrap their heads around it how does that mental model land with people is that helpful to explain crypto or are people skeptical when you explain

that concept to them so i i would say that the the easiest explanation is one that shows crypto as being a distinct and separate asset class right so it's like okay how do you value crypto well you can't value it like an equity or you can't apply like a dcf necessarily especially for these non-productive monetary assets um it's not really like a bond it's not really like a commodity and so and so providing a framework by which they understand how to assess uh traditional asset classes you can then just say crypto asset the reason why you don't understand it is because it requires an entirely new framework um so so it's effectively don't try to force fit the traditional framework into

trying to uh understand uh crypto assets i i think increasingly there is uh people are resonating with how crypto can transform every traditional asset class especially as the investment theses and the use cases in crypto develop uh where there isn't necessarily a one size fits all model we're seeing a lot of kind of revolutions emerge that are in parallel with you know the bitcoin or the monetary revolution that might require like a new kind of framing uh that more closely aligns to what they're familiar with so any opportunity that we have to draw to kind of the old world or traditional frameworks is one that

resonates with with the people that we're speaking to and i think this does a pretty good job doing that frank you you came from like a software as a service next-gen cloud platform sort of world 2 and like the engineering background you know a16z talks about this in a similar term they talk about it look software's eating the world and now the framing for uh crypto is software is coming to eat money and finance and digitally scarce things all of the all of the scarce things that we have as assets is that good framing in your mind do you think that this is just the same movement of software eating the world and this time it's coming for banks yeah i i think it is and i'll steal i think one of yaseen's line but lions but

uh we're at a stage where you know uh every bank and traditional financial firm has to have a fintech strategy now because fintech has been disrupting the traditional banks and i think we're getting to a stage going forward where every fintech needs to have a crypto strategy and crypto is where that industry is evolving and moving on to more crypto native rails and with regards to kind of this slide and especially relating it to the internet and software i think the more that we can tie these new paradigms to you know what the traditional world thinks i think like the evolution of the internet is a very a tangible topic for people because they use these services every day and being able to relate that to how crypto is

slowly taking over those more traditional platforms or the more traditional financial services uh the better we can be at educating okay so uh let's keep moving in the slide deck and i want to move maybe to uh slide 43 which um the title of this slide is each revolution involves a different level of trust and i think at this point in the crypto section you sort of establish that crypto is coming for finance and digital scarcity it is eating the world this is another you know software eating the world type moment and the next question that somebody new to crypto might have for you even somebody in crypto is okay yeah but what's the difference between a bitcoin and ethereum and avalanche and tara and like binance uh smart chain and go down the

list of all of these assets and to someone who's new they look at the assets and they're just like ah they kind of all look the same like what's the difference and i think this slide does a really good job talking about the spectrum of centralized trust and decentralized trust so decentralized trust on the left and centralized trust on the right and the use cases that generally fall out of that section so there are three use cases here the first requiring the highest degree of decentralized trust is the money revolution we could talk about that somewhat in the middle but still skewing towards the decentralized trust side of things is the financial and internet revolution so we might fit defy here as

well as um you know some of the web 3 things that are coming out and then on the on the right side of the spectrum the centralized trust side of the spectrum is basically traditional finance where we have the status quo and the banking system as we know it and each of these platforms each of these chains each of these assets sort of fit in different places on the the spectrum of centralization and decentralization you seen could you give us kind of the big idea from this slide and talk about where some of these major platforms fit and why they fit in the places they do in in your opinion sure honestly i think you summed it up perfectly and it's it's great that that you did because we grappled a lot with

this slide with the main takeaway that we wanted from this slide to be that there are no solutions there are only trade-offs and these trade-offs are made to achieve the functionality and the security appropriate for a specific use case so the the idea that we compare blockchains without recognizing their distinctive design or value proposition i think is very counterproductive and why you know there's so much animosity between chains uh what we've tried to present here is that there are different revolutions that are evolving in parallel uh we think that the most profound is the money revolution but each of these revolutions are going to require uh a different set of trade-offs and network implementations and so

you have especially these newer market participants that are questioning you know why are bitcoiners so only interested in bitcoin right or why do you have these bitcoin maximalists that think all these other chains are a scam uh and and they kind of fault them for being closed-minded or unwilling to compromise uh but it actually ties back to some of bitcoin's principles which you know in our view can't be replicated by other public blockchains and this includes like a very strong regard for property rights or high predictability and monetary policy a commitment to cheap validation and decentralization of fairness and issuance through proof-of-work all of these we think make it a prime candidate to compete as a global-based money

which we think is a revolution that necessitates decentralization and security over something like uh scalability or features uh but as we move along this spectrum and into your point ryan we start to see public blockchains like ethereum and it's an even larger extent solana and avalanche and terra that are that are trading off that potential trust minimization for convenience for more features for higher throughput which which to your point if you are going to kind of create a d5 ecosystem or a web 3.0 it is likely you know necessary to fulfill those those demands that users have um so the biggest question is like what does that that perfect balance look

like especially in the financial internet revolution i think we have a good idea that the money revolution is going to require max conservatism uh and the more boring and predictable it is the better and on the status quo it's like you're unapologetically centralized so if you're a visa or paypal it's like i kind of trust the the intermediaries that are facilitating the flow of transactions so the big question and i know frank has a lot on a lot of thoughts on this is what does that perfect balance look like um and what are some of the dynamics that are emerging let's say between ethereum versus solana and trying to strike that perfect balance i think it's interesting so you know how you how you drew this where bitcoin is squarely in the money

revolution you have ethereum sort of spanning money revolution and financial and internet revolutions and like in the in the center not necessarily dipping into money or like solana avalanche and tara and binance is sort of almost a little bit status quo ridiculously centralized right it's much more centralized like and i do think probably some people looking at this slide might quibble with you know where the placement is right so um like myself personally i probably would have extended ethereum even further into the money revolution um but also it's interesting because some of these these platforms change over time right and so maybe you might argue ethereum squarely started in the center and has kind of stretched into

the money revolution over time as it's being used more as as money but regardless i'm curious frank maybe you could weigh in here on the rationale so why is bitcoin squarely on the left why is ethereum sort of spanning why are solana avalanche and terra kind of in the center why is binance smart chain why is it sticking into the status quo lane can you just give us a high level for why these specific projects in the in the place that they're in definitely and first i draw the the difference one of the primary differences that leads to placement between the money revolution and the financial and internet revolutions like you seen said is conservatism for a base money that is resistant to nation-state-level attacks

or influences that has maximal assurances of seizure resistance you need to know that what you're building on or what you're holding is consistent and not changing and that's actually completely different from what you may need to compete in the financial and internet revolutions which is the frontier of technology being able to push out updates so you can process more transactions or enable new types of transactions or generally enable greater functionality and so that's why bitcoin uh because it has this ethos of we are not changing we are not evolving uh at least uh to the extent that these other chains are uh puts it in that monetary revolution when you look

towards financial internet to compete ethereum we know has the eth 2.0 vision we're going to go proof of stake we're going to uh enable sharding we're pushing on roll ups where we're we have many eips that are being rolled out and and that's what enables it really to to compete with some of these newer chains like solana avalanche and terra which uh don't necessarily have the stability or the track record to be considered money and the economies that are built on top of them are much smaller so they're not really being used as money uh to the extent extent as ether is uh if you look at ether and defy it's a pristine form of collateral it's with eth 2.0 or with proof of state going to be this internet bond so to

speak with the staking yield um it does for and it's the main currency denominating a majority of nft volume across any chain uh so it is functioning as money and that's why we have it splayed across um solana avalanche and tara are making this uh what we would consider a distinct trade-off of pushing through more throughput at a lower fee uh but sacrificing some of that stability and some of that level of decentralization by having greater requirements to operate the network or having a more centralized token holder base which is increasingly important uh in terms of the level of decentralization in proof-of-stake compared to proof-of-work because in proof-of-stake your influences

denominated in the tokens that you hold rather than the mining hardware which is uh off network um when you look at binance smart chain it has some of the aspects of public blockchains it's composable it's open and transparent mostly anybody can read and write with the exception that that guarantee that anybody can read and write is dictated by a much smaller more centralized group of validators so it may look like it offers you everything as public as a public blockchain but you need to make a trust assumption that these validators will continue to operate that network in a way that gives you these features and so that's what pushes it closer to the status quo if there was a desire to censor some transactions or throttle the

network in some way the validators controlled by binance could probably do that pretty easily which is not unlike amazon de-listing a seller visa blocking certain transactions and the the more you make these uh trade-offs in terms of this trust assumptions required to operate the network the closer you get to the status quo on the right fun fact about binance smart chain they just renamed themselves to bnb chain i saw this morning i think they want to separate i think they want to separate the binance name from this thing that they're creating so that they're not known as like binance affiliated right so it's an interesting way to try to try to spam these columns here and that's also like to your point how they they can change

over time based on how the network evolves is that is solana which is i would say made sacrifices and decentralization to promote high throughput going to progressively decentralize and move its place on this chain and is ether or ethereum in uh in necessity to compete with solana on the throughput is that going to force ethereum to make some sacrifices on decentralization as well to compete on the throughput side what's always funny about this game too frank is like um there's a lot of profit and money to be made in playing the decentralized theater game as well which is why it's hard i think for outsiders to like look at the space and get some

objective viewpoint because all of these chains i think will tell you many of them will that they are equally decentralized as well right at least some of their marketing language will the the trade-offs don't always get acknowledged this is a separate discussion of course but yeah david you wanted to say something yeah you got you talked about how these things tend to change over time so i'm hoping next time you guys write this report this big ideas report that you guys keep this slide and you know reorient the placement of these different chains as they get updated in 2023 and 2024 if i had a prediction we would actually see some ethereum layer twos also on the right side of the financial and internet revolution spectrum filling up that gap

as well and even perhaps ether's deflationary aspect allows ether to push into the left side uh into the money revolution as well in addition to that but this is the david if you want that right the bankless buy is coming out now so there's that these guys are at the report anyways it is well i think it is well taken one of the questions that we had is should we make these bands of equal length and just kind of commit to a more you know subjective placement but perhaps there is a scenario where the band's lengthened in some ways you know i go back to the fact that i still think that you know there are no solutions and only trade-offs and that's the trade-off

that people that these chains are going to have to make but well taken definitely well taken as i want to skip ahead to slide 55 because this is where we start to get into some of the fun stuff uh this is the the the bitcoin headline title the price of one bitcoin could exceed one million dollars by 2030. and there's a bunch of math that goes into it and this is the reason why i'm not an analyst because i kind of don't really understand how these numbers came to be but you've seen can you kind of just walk us through the slide about how this 1 million dollar bitcoin prediction came to be sure i i think for context it would be helpful if you could just briefly go to the previous slide to give you just what that actually means in the context of

traditional asset classes so first off if you believe that crypto broadly is a distinct asset class it's also going to affect other asset classes uh then you'd imagine that you know in the next few decades it's going to be on par uh with other asset classes um so you know we we've sort of uh sized the opportunity as in the next 10 years uh as as being you know 25 fold from where it is today which would amount to about a 28 trillion dollar market cap uh but in the context of global equities and m2 and global bonds in real estate uh that that that's actually still only a fraction of of the the broader kind of asset class base um so with that the one million dollars

does sound uh you know quite uh like a like an insane number to throw around uh so if you go to the next slide we can we can break that down yeah and real quick i will note you've seen though that uh this uh you know 28 trillion dollar like price would be you know almost 3x gold so that in itself is fairly bold that's right that that is right uh and so you can kind of make the argument again that uh bitcoin is going to challenge gold as a global store of value you can see in the opportunities slide that we we actually estimate that bitcoin will in the gold use case only capture around 50 percent of gold's market share as a digital store value uh but i i'd make the argument that you

know bitcoin is a 100 x better version of gold it's it's more portable it's more divisible uh you know every marginal kind of uh individual who's transitioning from the physical to the digital world isn't thinking about buying gold i've never considered ever buying gold uh and yet every chance i have my i buy bitcoin uh so there is kind of just a a shift in the mentality of of uh of these kind of next generation asset holders um but with that being said it it it is a big number um it's it is relative to when we first sized the opportunity though a smaller jump so we actually first gained exposure uh to

bitcoin in 2015 uh through gbtc uh when bitcoin was trading around 200 and at the time we had predicted a fifty thousand dollar price and you'd imagine like a two hundred dollar to fifty thousand you must be absolutely absurd right that's a two hundred x from from here um so you know we're effectively predicting a 50x to i'm sorry a 50 000 to a million dollar price which in relative terms is a 20x so actually an order of magnitude less than kind of the previous uh predictions that we've had i think that the main takeaway from sizing the opportunity broadly and how we think about it is bitcoin's use cases given it is a monetary asset that has a fixed supply are additive right so there's a fixed 21

million bitcoin supply cap which means that for every bitcoin that's being used as a digital gold can't be used as a remittance asset and for every bitcoin that's being reused as a remittance asset can't be used as protection against arbitrary asset feature so when you combine kind of the 21 million fixed supply with the fact that that supply itself is becoming more and more longer term focus where people are buying and never you know adding to the in and never willing to sell then the price multiplier as well increases where now for every dollar that's closed into the asset the the reflection on what that looks like for market cap is not necessarily one dollar it might be ten dollars it might be 25

uh so the point is that for many of these use cases specifically for the nation state treasury and for the corporate treasury we have assumed a price multiplier um where you look at kind of the liquid supply that's available in bitcoin and you just take that as kind of the denominator set that's absorbing uh you know new demand for before we move on i want to just reiterate that point because that's that's the point about bitcoin that i've never heard before that i think is really cool what you what you just said is that because buyers of bitcoin tend to be long-term focused a dollar of buying bitcoin at thirty thousand dollar price tag has some amount of impact on the price but a dollar at buying the three hundred thousand dollar bitcoin price has an outsize impact in

comparison to the thirty thousand dollar price tag is that right that's exactly right i i look at bitcoin as like a what many people call like a veblen good which is a good that actually the demand for the good increases as the price increases so like you know luxury is is considered a beveling good uh but more than that it's like if you employ bitcoin as this long-term asset where the number one rule of bitcoin should be that you forget that you own any bitcoin then by definition there is a supply shock that isn't necessarily priced in today in 10 years if you have nation states competing on you know amassing satoshis then every dollar that's going into bitcoin is going to be sucked up by a subset of

that 21 million fixed supply uh so there is definitely a case to be made that the more we see nation state adoption institutions and the more that's uh it's it's seen as less of a speculative vet and as a long-term investment then then we then we might see this kind of live based on just small inflows um and even if we don't see the small inflows and and you know i i'd urge you to to read for the audience our white paper that was published a year and a half ago that that details some of these use cases including economic settlement network and digital gold and seizure resistant asset you know these are all i think um pretty reasonable estimates uh if you do

believe that bitcoin is this global monetary asset and and really kind of a generational opportunity uh to to really put your foot in the ground in in in the digital world um as the economy shifts to the difficulty you see and i want to go through some of these categories really quick particularly for the podcast listeners so if you're watching on youtube you can you can see this slide and you can see the breakdown but you know for the podcast listeners i'll just rattle them off really quick and maybe you could give some color commentary um you know where you think it it requires it so when you say this thing like the estimates are you're somewhat conservative they're not wild they're not crazy the way you get to 28.5 trillion dollars which is a million

dollar bitcoin price is by consuming 50 percent of gold's mark market cap and being the digital gold so that's where a chunk of this comes from by being a corporate treasury that's where five percent uh of this uh five percent of cash on the s p 500 would be invested in corporate treasury we've seen some of this with microstrategy we've seen some of this and other you know companies that are acquiring bitcoin for their balance sheets um 2.5 percent of in institutional asset based bases is bitcoin it's like right now it's it's got to be far less than one percent for institutional investments right uh and then we have five percent of global high

net worth investments so these are all of the kind of the global whales the billionaires and the you know hundreds of millionaires of the world they choose to store five percent of their wealth in bitcoin as as a seizure resistant uh asset and then one percent of uh total reserves of nation state treasuries go go to bitcoin and this is just like what what you see here in the in these things is just kind of an extrapolation of a trend that we've already seen right so el salvador they're acquiring bitcoin okay now what would it look like if you throttle that up to one percent of all nation state treasuries um you know high net worth individuals billionaires are already buying bitcoins what happens if that becomes five percent institutional investments we're already seeing that

with institutions are coming with you know big endowments and that sort of thing corporate treasuries the microstrategy example and then this belief of digital gold so all of these things are happening what you're doing is you're just kind of extrapolating them and uh quantifying uh you know as a percentage of of market share of how much they would uh consume in each of these categories you have any color commentary on that example of like how we get to let's say the two and a half percent or the five percent right i think to your point all of these are are taken from initial signals that we've seen the market uh throw at us right if we see a tesla allocating eight percent of their balance sheet into bitcoin and a square in a micro strategy it's like okay do is

there a trend that's emerging um so for the institutional investment uh we we conducted a monte carlo simulation uh that basically uh asked what is the optimal portfolio allocation of bitcoin uh for an investor a traditional investor that that has exposure to all asset classes from emerging market currencies to real estate to bonds to equities um that would like to basically either minimize volatility of their portfolio or maximize their risk adjusted returns so what percent of bitcoin should they put in their portfolio to achieve one of one of those two um optimizers

the two and a half percent is basically to minimize the volatility so we basically took the last 10 years and saw the returns of asset classes uh including bitcoin and said okay what percent of bitcoin would need to be allocated into this portfolio the answer was two and a half percent uh this was actually the lower bound the upper bound was six and a half percent where to maximize risk adjusted returns an investor should allocate six and a half percent uh it consistent with the asset class returns that we've seen um in the last 10 years now of course this is on a on a on in hindsight so there's also an analysis that we conducted on a perspective basis where it's like okay if we were to size the opportunity uh what would that look like that ranged

again between one and seven percent so this is really like if you pitch to an institutional investor of look you're a strategic allocator you want to minimize uh the correlation of returns across your asset classes adding bitcoin to your portfolio is going to do exactly that i don't think it's necessarily a tough sell for institutions the seizure resistant asset is another you know good example where we take the use case of bitcoin where with good public and private key management bitcoin isn't a seizure resistant or unseasonable asset right if i'm custodian bitcoin on cold storage uh unless like someone comes knocking on my door and takes physically my private keys there's no way for anyone to seize

my bitcoin and as such you can see it as really an insurance policy against arbitrary asset seizure whether that's through indirectly through inflation or directly through the outright confiscation of wealth or the freezing of bank accounts like we're seeing now in canada uh like we saw during the hong kong protests and and there the five percent estimate is is really you know us estimating what the probability uh over a lifetime would be for an individual to have their assets seized uh so you can say in any given year it might be one one thousandth of a chance so over 50 years you multiply that it's about five percent so we're effectively equating that five percent to the

probability that your assets might get seized over your lifetime and as such a sensible allocation should equate to that probability so you take the 80 trillion dollar of global high net worth wealth you multiply that by five percent and it gets you that that four trillion dollar opportunity uh alone so that's kind of the the the rationale and some of the logic that we that we employ uh going through these um different opportunities just like i said at the beginning these are not just uh you know numbers that have been made up out of thin air there's actual thought and analysis and rationale put behind the one million dollar bitcoin price tag like there also is with ether and ethereum and also some

of the consumer metrics in the metaverse so that is what is coming up next in the show right after we talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible if you're going bankless you need metamask this is your tool to unlock the world of defy without giving up custody over your private keys metamask is both a secure in-browser wallet and also a secure bridge for your hardware wallet you can now trade tokens on any decks or aggregator metamask swap gathers real-time pricing information across all the defy exchanges allowing you to select your best price while getting all the metamask benefits of self-custody lower gas costs and increased transaction success rates metamask also has a fantastic mobile wallet that i use when i'm out and about which i use to collect poaps nfts and do all my defy things while i'm away from

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ethereum is always just so goddamn investable it's very investable things uh and and this is a slide that says uh talks about the ltm revenue per employee in the millions of dollars frank can you explain for the listeners what ltm revenue per employee means and what this chart slash graph is uh is showing yeah definitely so on the on the definition front ltm is last 12 months revenue um we used on-chain data for the crypto based protocols you see here we used quarterly financial statements for the traditional finance companies um and then for employee we used uh linkedin numbers uh but the the really uh key idea here is we wanted to show

one the scale of of what kind of revenues are these crypto native uh applications or companies uh operating at and how does that compare to traditional financial institutions uh and well it's not the same on the absolute level if you look at the amount of revenue that these protocols are generating per employee which has significantly lower operating costs and operating needs than some of these traditional companies you can see you get a massive amount of leverage in crypto native protocols compared to traditional institutions and traditional financial networks and that's for a few different reasons it's because you don't have counterparty risk you have less parties involved you could spend way more money on developers and way less

money on compliance and marketing and operations your protocols are global by default uh you have all these things that allow you to gain a lot of leverage and to like sum it up broadly i'd say it's the power of building on top of open source networks uh you can also think of composability uh metamask didn't have to build its own amm to operate as a brokerage in your pocket uh it can plug into uniswap and it can plug into sushi swap and it can get you the best rate across all of d5 and so this composability is another thing that let's uh you know decentralize protocols uh operate at much higher leverage than a traditional company i want folks to just kind of really understand this because it's something we've talked

about on bank list the the amount that let's take unit swap as an example the amount that they've been able to do with like 15 to 20 employees is absolutely mind-blowing and you have a chart that compares uniswap to the new york stock exchange on ltm revenue per employee so what what's interesting about this is it's revenue per employee right so it's like normalizes it on an employee basis and if you look at the unit swap section we're talking about 40 million dollars worth of top line revenue that uniswap generates per employee if i'm reading this correctly frank and the direct comparison if you want to take an analog to uniswap what is uniswap it's kind of

like a defies new york stock exchange and the new york stock exchange per employee generates revenue too but it's like you can barely see on the chart it's like below a million here i don't know if it's like 300k or something like that it's in that range so we got a uniswap with 20 people generating 40 million per person and we've got a new york stock exchange with like buildings full of people lots of paperwork lots of infrastructure uh all of this stuff uh that they have to register in the real world and they're generating far less revenue per employee if that doesn't show you the efficiency of software eating money software eating bank software eating finance i don't

know i don't know how else to show it because this is incredible to see did i get some of that right frank yeah definitely i think that sums it up well um to be a little bit fair to the new york stock exchange their revenue is listing fees and market makers are the ones keeping the market efficient uniswap doesn't even need market makers because it's an automated market maker and it has liquidity provided from anybody who wants to provide liquidity and earn a yield on trading fees um so it's not 100 apples to apples but it gives you a really good feel there and i actually think uh you know another way to look at this but it's harder to measure may have been inspired by a former bankless podcast uh i might have heard somebody say that uniswop is the most valuable codebase line for line

ever uh based on the market cap or the revenue um per lines of code and it's going to show that same thing um i think this is this is yeah go ahead i'm pretty sure that was chris dixon no that was chris dixon ryan oh that was chris that was chris i was gonna say it was probably my the smarter uh co-host david hoffman probably said that because i don't remember it well let's keep moving here wait no before we do one last thing on this line but uh there's something stuck out to me in this report uh and it's this uh tradify word revenue revenue per employee illustrates defies efficiency relative relative to that of traditional fat trying to finance in parentheses tradify frank you seen is tradfight about to be a term that's going to be adopted by tradfi after gm and wag me yeah probably

okay so maybe not i think it's sad fi so if i was looking at this chart correctly all right well let's get into the the happy phi which is the next slide that's coming up next which is slide 65 for those following along which is ether's market cap could exceed 20 trillion dollars in the next 10 years and it's that we've got a pretty simple looking chart here with a little bit of an explainer comparing the current market cap of ether which is uh clocking in at 0.4 uh trillion dollars and comparing that to all global financial services the market cap of all global financial services at 22.5 trillion dollars frank can you explain to us why this comparison is justified and how uh this

kind of lends itself to why ethereum our ethers market cap might exceed 20 trillion dollars yeah definitely um so going back to something that we opened this conversation with uh there's a lot of things about crypto assets that are so new and so different that you can't model them like traditional companies but there's also some places where they overlap and you can and you can think of all of the transactions that are happening on ethereum especially post eip 1559 where the transaction fees are burnt and returned to token holders um as revenue for that chain and it actually directly translates to earnings in that the revenue is fully burnt and going back to token holders and so you can kind of look as as more and more volume moves on

chain how revenue accrues to that uh to that underlying currency in this case either and what we see with defy across not just you know one or two segments of financial services but across the full spectrum of exchanges to lending to asset management to insurance everything that was on that previous slide plus more plus net new things that don't even exist in traditional finance you're seeing more and more revenue at the margin sucked out of traditional finance and moving on chain and net new financial services revenue being created on chain and so what we see is you know over the next 10 years this market cap which is you know what you can think of as a multiple over revenue or multiple over earnings moving into the the protocols that power

this future financial system uh in this case ether um so we think over you know the next 10 years and we see this really as the market cap opportunity for what ether as supporting a global financial system could look like and this reminds me of the very first slide that we talked about in this show where blockchain networks really allow for kind of in the same way the internet allowed tv radio you know insert your communication medium here all came onto the internet perhaps ethereum allows all global financial services to eventually make its way on to ethereum or you know pick your favorite smart contract blockchain here is that is that kind of what we're alluding to here frank yeah exactly um and that's also like just a generalized development platform

with smart contracts you get all the financial services that you can code up plus you get new things that people create with it and that kind of gets into the the nfts and the web three and all of that as well um but the the other thing i'd call attention to here is the is the global m2 opportunity where we're increasingly seeing you know if you have a global financial system built on top of ethereum the native currency the the most secure form of currency on that blockchain uh you can obscribe at some value of some monetary value and you can do it almost similar to how we did it for bitcoin and we don't break out a specific number here uh but you see uh like el salvador is uh adopting bitcoin for example and that's an emerging

market uh in the same way ethereum's being adopted by nfts and that's its own emerging market that gives value to to ether um so we're we're kind of you know seeing this hybrid between a a global development platform that earns revenue from the economies built on top plus value to the currency or to the token as being the native currency in that economy this is cool and i think maybe for bankless listeners uh you know we'll start to see some some repetition here in terms of how other analysts we've had on the podcast see ether as an asset in terms of how we see it but frank if i'm interpreting it correctly basically almost the base case here if you ignore the monetary premium if you start thinking about ether as what we

might call a capital asset and start doing like things you do with equity analysis which is discounted cash flow analysis right and and you think about the dcf of of ether as an asset uh accruing you know blockchain fees and that going to uh people who stake uh as something that is you know productive productive and income generating is sort of like a you know a dividend if you will the stock buybacks and bankless listeners will recall the dcf episode that we did just two or three episodes ago that talks about that discounted cash flow analysis that's how you get to ether getting to like you know the size of the global financial services industry which is about 20 trillion dollars okay so that alone is almost like the base case for this thing and

that assumes maybe something like bitcoin eats all of the monetary premium in the space none of that flows to to ether but then you stuck this global m2 next to it which shows like the potential for monetary premium that also exists if ether does continue to transition more towards a monetary asset and a store of value medium of exchange and then the potential grows to like the tens of trillions to hundreds of trillions and you start to look at some of the factors that went into the bitcoin price analysis and you add that to ether as well so at some level depending on how things work out

and like of course we never know but like the 20 trillion dollars which is 180 k eth price point is sort of the conservative base case for what ether could become or at least maybe the smart contract platform segment as as a whole if you believe that ether's lunch is going to be eaten by all of these other chains uh did i put that correctly yeah definitely and that goes towards the uh what i was going to just wrap up with is that it's important to note that the financial and internet revolutions kind of this whole space is actually a lot more competitive than the money revolution and so we can pretty confidently say we think based on our rather could could call it conservative or crazy

polish depending on which way you look at it but why we feel really good about bitcoin there this is the opportunity for ether uh but it also has a lot more competitors and and we'll see you know quickly uh over the next few years how the market weighs the different decisions and the different trade-offs that each blockchain is making so i just want to paint the most bullish possible scenario say i'm an ethmaxy and i think ether is not only going to win the smart contract wars but also the money wars would we take that 22.5 uh billion dollar market cap the 56x that ether is already going to grow and then multiply that by uh five more or no six more times to get to the

global m2 is that is that what would be the logical conclusion of this dean what's your point what's your thought defer if ethereum is the one that completely swipes the floor of the whole entire crypto industry which i don't think is going to happen but if it did would it go to 122 it would billion more so you'd add the 22 and a half to the the 28 uh and a half that we sized for bitcoin okay so it would be call it 50 trillion because the global m2 like you have to i don't you you have to assume that it replaces global m2 entirely when i don't think that's necessarily

the case i think what to frank's point though which is really interesting is that there are um you know creative additive opportunities that that ethereum is unlocking where we don't even know like how to size that i think it's analogous like how do you size the internet in the in the late 90s i think that that's where the opportunity for ethereum is is like there could be these these parallel opportunities that emerge outside of the money case that we don't even know exist today so in that sense there is no upper bound david that's what i like to hear you see all right guys so the there that was the ethereum section we've covered bitcoin we've covered ethereum but there are two

slides left in the web3 nft era that i thought were just really really good and so i want to i want to unpack those a little bit so we're getting into uh slide number 70 and 71 ryan if you want to go there and this slide is nfts could shift from static collectibles to dynamic digital assets so you're saying the end game of this whole nft phenomenon isn't to just to collect jpegs what is it actually going to be when it actually matures and develops along its trajectory yeah i think the you know especially because of how the market has been over the past year the the the trend is you know we're flipping jpegs it's just art you know there's not much to it um but when you really think of it and what you know a lot of this section of

the of the report is predicated on is that nfts are are functioning as a form of digital property rights they give us the ability as internet users to own our data for the first time in web 2 you have social media where it's really user generated content uh but you don't own that content that you're generating it's the centralized platforms like facebook and instagram that are owning the data nfts allow the user to own the data that they're generating and that unlocks pretty profound things and it also incentivizes more spending on digital content because you can actually own that content and it can't be taken away from you uh as easily so when we when we look at how these

nfts are evolving from just images or jpegs um they they'll be used actually similar to what you've seen just said in use cases we can't even think of yet but i think the first you know that we're really seeing and this is showing that as well but the first that we're really seeing is gaming uh there's you know there's games like fortnite that generate five billion dollars which blows my mind every time i hear it but five billion dollars in revenue from in-game assets that users can't do anything with it just makes their character look cooler but they still want to buy it um and there's this social like aspect to it there's a status signaling aspect to it um but increasingly we're seeing more and more projects adopt this i think adopt

the same concept of in-game purchases uh but on crypto-native rails that gives you the option to uh exchange assets or sell assets or cash out or have portable assets that could be used across multiple virtual worlds or games uh creating a much more like interactive and high fidelity experience that you can use your nfts for and i think like a really good example of this like where this ties into you could do things that we didn't think would happen or be possible is uh something that we caught on twitter uh in uh i think it was indonesia uh the axi infinity one of the native tokens when you're playing the game is smooth love potion or slp and the the game has been popular you

know really blown up as a way to actually make income in some of these developing areas and so much so that people aren't actually exiting out of slp to to do things in real life or in the physical world there's a cab and what i'm getting to is a cab driver except a cab company accepting slp as payment for your cab so you have an in-game asset that's something that you can use to breed your axes and you know a full game mechanic utility but you can also use it outside that platform if somebody's willing to accept it as a form of payment and that merging of you know data portability plus your your in-game asset is also utility outside of that game it is really

incredible and guys i want to go on to this last slide because this is what i think culminates in this grand story that we're all talking about these new digital experiences and that slide 75 and 76 where we we were arc has predicted or uh the just the online consumption the online monetization money moving around in digital worlds across digital projects uh products starts to move beyond uh real products you know you know web 2 products or just actual you know physical atoms and to me my when i interpreted slide 75 and 76 it was really just the growth of the metaverse uh this is really what we're talking about at the end of the

day uh especially this one with with the chart here frank can you just unpack these uh these charts here and kind of tell us your interpretations of them yeah so so ultimately you know you can trend over time that we've been spending more and more time online and that's only been accelerated by the pandemic and with technologies like crypto native nfts that allow you to actually own your assets we're seeing and we forecast an acceleration of spending into digital goods over physical goods that will ultimately we think converge the the monetization rate or the the dollars of revenue generated per hour spent online uh the online version is going to approach the monetization rate of offline

basically saying you know in short that users will eventually or individuals will eventually value digital goods as much as they do physical goods uh and that's going to have you know massive ramifications and one of those being reducing the spending and what you see on 76 is reducing the spending on physical goods and increasing the spending on digital goods yeah well if that doesn't scream the metaverse and i don't know what does and that's what something i think that so many people already resonate with we already know that people spend money on fortnight skins before they were actual digital on-chain goods and having it actually be able to be an on-chain good uh is a just an unlock for the value of those things and really incentivizes

even more consumption um guys just seeing frank thank you so much for for running through some of the the most profound slides about bitcoin ether and and the metaverse and web3 um just any last open-ended comments about where you think this industry is going over the next five five to ten years that might not have made it into these slides frank you want to take that one first i think i mean what's really interesting and we were kind of talking about this before we hopped on the show is the the proof points that we're getting that crypto is becoming uh more mainstream and higher adoption and more of a a day-to-day topic that i think has more legs than the the

speculative thing that we saw in 2017 and 18. that cycle with the the ico boom and bust had a lot of hype and a lot of speculation and very little follow through uh what we're seeing now is is a market where you can see actual products being developed uh millions of users actually engaging with these projects and also a segmentation and diversification outside of just hey this is a token like bitcoin and litecoin and bitcoin cash you know all these things that are kind of copies of the same we're seeing more differentiation in crypto and the more that you know things like el salvador adopting bitcoin is legal tender or canada uh potentially freezing bank accounts uh essentially asset seizure

uh the more that we're seeing the proof point for crypto play out uh and i expect we'll see more and more of those over the next five to ten years um the the last thing i'd say which i also think is really interesting is that uh regulation is often talked about as a as a negative for crypto or something that will eventually you know slam the hammer down and stop the industry uh but we're seeing you know two recent proof points one is is uh both you know miami and new york city mayors accepting paychecks and crypto crypto is becoming a popular thing for politicians to support rather than crack down on at least in some segments of the political sphere and also how

increasing acts of regulation can actually provide the clarity needed for more people to join the system so you saw block five being fined 100 million dollars uh for their for their interest accounts and they are pausing that for now but they're going through the formal process with the sec to register those as a security so they can eventually offer those to consumers again which not just allows them to continue selling that product and offering that product but it opens the door for somebody like coinbase who was blocked from offering a similar product to offer that product and for many other companies now they see the proper process to go through to launch crypto based products and so i think we'll see that continue to develop and how more rules of the road that come

in uh will broaden the the you know the total market for crypto yeah it's so funny to me that block five thing we have other thoughts on we'll get to you in an episode later this week in the roll-up but how that is um widening the lane for for more adoption in crypto and it's funny how blockfi had to actually do it and then ask for forgiveness later for the sec to actually weigh in but it's really forced the sec's hand you seen what would you say closing comments for us reflecting on all of this yeah i mean i just echo frank and saying this is all unbelievable to be witnessing in real time and so this is my fourth big ideas and when i look back at like the first 2018 or 2019 big ideas of we were assessing google trends of turkey and

saw spike in emerging markets to fast forward four years and it's like you have an emerging market currency that is adopted as as legal tender it's like who knows what the next four years is going to look like uh so these are always great to just kind of see the evolution of crypto in real time uh and i mean i don't know what's next today just like i didn't know what was next to last year and compared to where we are today so um in any case it's awesome definitely to be on the show and appreciate you guys having us on well thank you guys we uh we do know one thing that happens next and that is number go up i think if these things come together

i might say a disclaimer this is not investment advice of course of course purely for informational and research purposes informational and research purposes only um but definitely definitely bullish uh on this report and these statements and arc has had a fantastic track record predicting some of these things before they happen so yaseen and frank thank you for joining us today thank you so much guys thanks for having us bankless listeners if you like what you heard make sure you like make sure you subscribe to this podcast if you're on apple itunes write us a review give us a five star as well we'll include links to resources in the show notes including the slides that we talked about today go scan those

when you have some time of course as you've seen said none of this was financial advice it never is on bankless bitcoin is risky so is eth so is defy you could definitely lose what you put in but we are headed west this is the frontier it's not for everyone but we're glad you're with us on the bankless journey thanks a lot hey we hope you enjoyed the video if you did head over to bankless hq right now to develop your crypto investing skills and learn how to free yourself from banks and gain your financial independence we recommend joining our daily newsletter podcast and community as a bankless premium subscriber to get the most out of your bankless experience you'll get access to our market analysis our alpha leaks and exclusive content

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