Anthony Sassano & Eric Conner | Luna Demise, Bear Survival, Bullish ETH Merge

Transcript

what's up hey man what's up oh you know survived another week how about you yeah yeah survived another week uh i think my brain didn't survive the week though uh i don't know about you but i am feeling very uh mentally exhausted that's for sure uh what's doing it to you most it's like twitter doom scrolling usually my channel i do on on instagram not on twitter really instagram doom scrolling that's uh that's the thing my instagram is just like random pictures of kind of like computers watches and cars so it's not doom scrolling it's kind of like wealth scrolling um no timing dude yeah yeah

that's really poor time no no i think um i i think what did it to me most was just the speed at which it happened right we basically ran through like uh crypto's 2008 moment in like three days it was just insane right and i think that's what fries my brain the most is when like and that's especially happened during like defy summer a lot when things were just happening really really quickly right you spend like all this mental energy trying to keep up and just catch up and then you would just get like completely blown out by it and then you do it all again the next day right so yeah it's just the speed of it i think for me yeah it's a it just reminds me of like the classic line when people are hung uh hung over and they're like i'm never drinking alcohol again and

then a week later there's just like another farm to like ape into like that that's what what definitely felt like if we're if we're doing the whole like crypto is speed running the history of money and finance thing we just like sped this bedram like a hyperinflation event right we went through like usually hyperinflation events take i mean it can take months right uh but this one took like 36 hours uh like we did just like weimar germany in like 36 hours yeah exactly and i think that's what i think shocked a lot of people it was like yeah a lot of people called um this and kind of like uh had been calling it for for a long time but i don't think anyone expected it to unwind as fast as it did like it literally went like i mean what the luna token went down like

99 in 24 hours or something that was just insanity right it wasn't just like some small [ __ ] coin either it was like it was worth tens of billions of dollars it was a top 10 coin and then it just collapsed and everyone's just like trying to keep up with it they're trying to keep up with kind of like i think they're in disbelief because they're trying to actually process the fact that this is actually happening like this is actually happening this is not a meme like this is not kind of some dream that everyone's having it's an actual reality that we're all going to have to adjust to and of course that bled into the wider markets it wasn't just terror like everything came come crashing down and then people were trying to short the other stable coins which was like peak stupidity i was like what the hell like

what is this so so yeah just absolute insanity man seriously i i think that i'm still going to be processing this for a while i mean it was my craziest week in crypto i don't know about you but definitely um i haven't felt like that before in crypto yeah i was thinking about that question is this a craziest week in crypto and it's it definitely is in a like catastrophic sense um i would say that like crazy as in just like i'm having to process so much which still still defy somewhere but uh yeah barring that which is like a completely tangential thing uh yeah i would say like this this had like the most amount of just like news per hour of any single week and and uh like comparing it comparing it to like

the last last year's cycle like oddly also in 2018 right like 2018 the downside of the peak mania uh halfway through 2018 ish is when bit connect blew up and like i think bit connect was a top ten coin like at one point in time and it went to absolute zero at some point in time uh and it took it took basically like 36 hours but like the the reason why no one really cared about that well people cared but we all just expected it everyone was like bitconnex took way too long to implode like it made people like question reality is like why hasn't this thing imploded yet and then one day there was some bad news and three days later it went to zero uh

and so like the pattern fits and it was a top ten coin and then it just went to zero uh and it was 3.8 billion dollar market cap when it went to xero which just a like tells you how big the crypto market has gotten in the last cycle because if like tara was also a top 10 coin it went to zero and it was something like over 40 is like 42 billion dollars at the time luna was uh and so like the scale of the thing is like proportional to the crypto markets as in like the crypto markets allowed bit connect and tara to get to the same size uh as a relation of the total crypto market and then it also went to zero roughly around the same time of the peak right like as the markets were fleeing as like

the game was up as like the dance of chicken was like all right who's gonna sell who's gonna sell and then like you know roughly halfway through 2018 big connect crash and roughly halfway through 2022 uh tara crashed i mean those are the patterns i'm seeing yeah yeah no the patterns are definitely very similar i think the main difference as you mentioned is like the scale of it like obviously tara was much bigger but i think it wasn't just like the lunato quintero was like a double whammy right because like there was a lunar token but there was also the stable coin that was attached to it right and then on top of that there were all the people going through these kind of like neo banks which are like front ends for for terra that had no idea what they were doing they just saw this api number like oh i

can earn 20 of my dollars i'm gonna put it in here right um and then they didn't read the fine print because if you read the fine print it says you can lose all your money potentially because that's just you know classic legal speak no one ever expects that to actually happen but it happened this time and i think that that's what caught a lot of a lot of people and obviously a lot of people have lost a [ __ ] ton of money i mean not just individuals um not just kind of like everyday people but massive funds and and and kind of like uh prop trading friends and market makers like they're i mean i think that like most people in crypto were hurt by this in one way or another um everyone was was hurt by it indirectly because the prices went down because of this i think um but

yeah it was just such a shock to the system i think but the thing is is that just kind of looking for positives in this i think eighth fed quite well like in in it all um i know so far at least i think that um the ethereum has gotten a lot of tailwinds from this i think like and and i think that you know the people that have kind of like been hurt maybe they're not going to come back to crypto for a while um especially the ones who were just like in it for for the yield they weren't even hot maybe holding luna they just had like the ust and that's sad it's kind of like said adoption back uh kind of kind of kind of quite a while there but it really does validate like the ethereum thesis i think of building you know

decentralized secure and sustainable kind of infrastructure rather than just doing it in a cowboy fashion and i remember i don't know if i've said it on bankers before but i've said it on my own show plenty of times where i say people you have to reframe the decentralization argument as security so instead of asking do you care about decentralization you ask do you care about security and now you ask any terror people about this question now they're going to say yes right but if you ask them if they cared about decentralization um before they may have just given you a non-answer or not really paid attention to it but you know no one cares about it until they need it and then when they need it they really really need it right so i think that's the main takeaway for me from all of this that's for sure and this has been

the drum that has been beat by like a number of like core crypto people for a very long time like this was a conversation back in 2017 2018 when it was eos and the zero transaction fees of eos versus like the trend the the blockchain fee model of ethereum right like we've we've seen this rodeo before i was actually talking to there's also like this whole prioritization of scale over security both works at the layer one layer and also the app layer too right and so i was talking to uh our guy our analyst at bankless ben uh and talking about the patterns here and i said like die supply always lags die demand which is like the it's it's there if there is demand of dye it'll prop up the value of the stable coin and then

people will uh emit more die but with real collateral uh and so like die only scales out its supply of dye if there is actual real bona fide demand of dye and like in the same thing with uh like ethereum this block space demand for ethereum lags behind demand right so when there's when transaction fees are high it creates the need for layer twos it creates the need for scale but it doesn't it doesn't answer scale first right and neither does die dye doesn't mint excess dye and then give it to the market ethereum doesn't mint excess block space and give it to the market these things lag demand because they prioritize security uh but then on the flip side of things the terra ust supply they just minted that thing like like

[ __ ] mint ust buy bitcoin buy bitcoin like short like without creating any amount of demand and this is what solana is doing when it's minting infinite block space it is just the money print or block space and it causes the chain to go down over time and so these like bull market chains which is like my new word for monolithic blockchains these bull market chains are just minting out supply selling their product for a discount devaluing their product because that's the competitive advantage they're like the off-brand blockchain so they're devaluing their products and just like injecting into the market say cheap cheap cheap buy it buy it but then when the bear market comes like they have no real sustainability and they have like infinite supply uh and so like the it

exists in the app layer it exists at the core protocol level and like in in hindsight it just makes total sense that things that devalue their product to go out to the market can't sustain themselves in a bear market yeah well exactly and i think that's why like our maybe our points fall on deaf ears a lot of the time during the bull markets is because this is this is stuff that it's not immediately apparent to most people especially new people they've got no idea for the context around this they haven't been around they haven't experienced you know a bear mark or anything like that so to them it's kind of like all the coins are going up you know and again if you say anything against that you're just a dirty fudder dirty maxi we don't want to listen to you sort of thing right um and

that's what exactly what happened with i mean you guys uh you and ryan um were some of the champions of calling out tara right like the show that you did just a few weeks ago um and everything like that and you guys were called out relentlessly for it especially himself right like my emotions definitely i felt that yeah yeah exactly and you know this is one of the reasons why i try not to get too involved with it as well is because i don't want to have to deal with like all that crap even though i know that um you know i'm i'm right i don't want to have to kind of like deal with the the crap that gets swung at me and yeah just seeing you guys go through that i was like holy [ __ ] this is insane and i think that's what a lot of people miss

is that we're not like now that everything clubs for not dancing on the graves of people who lost money were dancing on the graves of dokkon and his lunatic army who literally didn't listen to anyone you know kept insulting everyone who ever brought up anything wrong with the system and acted like kings and gods and nothing could you know i think nothing bad could happen to them um and and and that's it like yes it may be maybe a little bit too much but i think i think social signaling is very very important here because that's the only accountability and recourse we're really having crypto is social signaling because there's no i mean the government might go after dokon himself but there's no government to bail out anything here like they let everyone let luna go to zero and ust basically go to zero because there's no bailout like

who's gonna bail them out the only bailout comes from the private enterprise and eventually the private enterprise was like no no no man this is too toxic we're not going to touch this right it doesn't matter if if it was quote unquote too big to fail or something there's none of that in crypto things will fail and they'll fail very very quickly and i think to prevent this sort of stuff happening in the future you really have to social signal you really have to get everyone on board with this so next time there's a algo stable coin that comes out you have everyone calling it out right like there was people calling terror out but it wasn't the majority and a lot of people were scared to call it out because they had this massive army that would swarm you as soon as you did so we need to

break past that like if we let that dominate the industry then this stuff's just going to keep playing out again and again and as a lot of people have already mentioned it's going to bring with it a lot of bad regulation right that's it and it's going to uh set crypto adoption back years so i mean again kudos to you guys for calling it out for so long and and kind of like putting up with all that crap because that's not something that i really really i can do like i really hate i try to avoid conflict most of the time um with these especially with these armies man they just come from nowhere i don't even know i don't think a lot of them are real people they have to be bots right like it's just insane yeah and the bots have to like find real people to

convince themselves to like mix themselves in with the real people so the bots can be like or the bots not necessarily the bots but just like the civil attackers right just like one guy with like 10 15 100 accounts or something like that which you would consider bots um like uh well i think there's two things i i want to say to that like there also there were a lot of like vcs that were very much a part of this whole thing like at the same at some point there's like so many people ended up supporting this ecosystem that you just have to say that they were duped like it's like some people just like took the kool-aid so like algo stable coins they work this time uh like it's it's this time it's different like where that funds in it and this funds in it so like i'll be in

it too like we're all promoting it's legitimacy even though like at the base layer like there's like a bunch of like hot air here uh and and i i had a i did a podcast with the vc who taught and i asked about like okay what are the fundamentals of vcs like as a concept it's like why are there vcs and one one of his answers was that like well vcs provide legitimacy right uh and so like when you when you onboard with a vc when you take money from a vc rather than a bunch of angels that vc has network connections that vc can do things for you like the best vcs create the best premium because they have the best returns and so the competition is based on what vcs can provide the most value to blah blah blah and so like if we're talking about like

the fallout collateral damage of these things like the market needs to uh reassess the value of various vcs in this industry because some vcs were on one side of this trade in this industry and the other vcs were not right uh like fred airsim from paradigm tweeted out the um the guy from the the 2008 crisis movie the big short who's like the uh i can't remember his name the guy that also was in the game stop but michael berry i think michael barry yeah right by the way played by christian bale in that movie exactly yeah like who knows if they like were actually short or are they just tweeting out a meme i don't know but it kind of implies that they were taking the other side of this trade as in shorting luna uh and there were some vc's that were very much in

promotion of it to the point of chilling it right like how some of these vcs do uh and so like we need to like reassess which vcs were on like the right side of history and and especially uh terun chitra uh which is actually where i was going with this next uh uh for he had was on um the laura shins like all in styled podcast and he talked about how people that make algo stable coins just inherently must have this god complex and they don't look at history and they just ignore history and they're like i've just created alchemy like i am the stable coin god i can mint coins out of thin air like look at this magic i'm like a billionaire i will bet on like the future price of my token in a 20

million dollar bet that i make on twitter because i'm a [ __ ] chad and if anyone denies me and if anyone doubts me like i'll just like throw my stable coins at you uh and like this is do kwan man and like he i'll go stable coins and i'm getting i'm learning about this too in like the last week so it's not like i knew this ahead of time but like the whole algo stable coin thing is the same thing as like the zimbabwe dollar it's the same thing as weimar germany it's just a straight up hyperinflation event sped up in real time and dokuan should have known this because he did basis cash on the app player but then like it's because it was on the app player it failed and so he had to go make an lo a separate l1 so it

couldn't be economically attacked by flash loans or all that other [ __ ] or whatever and then he starts playing god right uh and so like there's so much like hubris and status and legitimate that's involved in these things that are inherently faith-based at the end of the day anyways and rant and rant no no i mean i i think i think from all that the main takeaway for people should be that just because someone is a vc or is a fund or works at a fund or whatever and has money doesn't make them more intelligent than you right there is no there's not much correlation between money and intelligence from that's that's one thing i've learned definitely being equipped over the last few years there are billionaires who are really dumb like and that might might seem counterintuitive you might think just

like how can a billionaire be dumb well put it this way guys crypto has created so much wealth in such a short period of time there are people that could have become billionaires by literally just throwing you know maybe uh six figures into either the ico for example right there's also a difference between like uh like intelligence and ability to make money at the same time yeah yeah yeah yeah exactly so i think um you know that should be like one of the main main takeaways from this and also these things can can go on longer than you than you think they can i mean you know the i think the reason why uh that picture was shared of michael berry on twitter or one of the reasons i don't know if that was short or not was that in the movie it shows how michael berry

was betting against the housing market really early on and the housing market kept going crazy right and and he was betting against it for such a long time and everyone was calling him out they were saying man it's still growing like what are you talking about this is crazy like this is a crazy trade you're pissing away our money uh and then the same thing happened here where people were calling this out for a very long time and then it kept growing and growing and growing and everyone was like oh okay well it's gone to such a big size now it's too big to fail right like it's it's not gonna fail it's all well and good um and then people were waiting they were like no it's gonna fail like we're gonna get our jews eventually like it's it's basically mathematically programmed to fail which

it was um and it did it failed exactly how the bears said it would it didn't even deviate from that because it was programmed like all you needed to do was read the white paper to see exactly how this worked and uh it did that and the funny thing is though is that the terra form labs uh the main team behind terra could have wound this down a lot uh kind of like um a lot more gracefully than what happened right they did nothing they actually let it go to zero they could have paused the chain they could have paused minting they could have done all this other stuff right and they did not have a contingency plan they had no idea they didn't happen that's what i'm saying so that that's that's that's kind of like we were talking about with with dokuan and kind

of like him feeling like a god and him feeling like nothing would go wrong he was like you know how to alchemy he could just print money out of thin air they had no plan for when everything went to [ __ ] inevitably and because of that everything went to [ __ ] like it actually went to zero like coin gecko did one minus 100 on um on on luna because it rounded it to the nearest zero which was a zero um i was like what the hell this is crazy um but yeah no i i think that it's right and the thing is is that you talk about kind of like people not learning from history um yeah i mean the algo stable coins within the crypto context actually went back really far i think as far back as 2014 or even earlier than that right

yeah before this is the thing yeah exactly so this is this is definitely not new but the thing is is that these things are very easy to grow in a bull market whenever when everyone's throwing money at you they're very reflexive on the upside as well as to the downside and uh you can easily kind of like pump your token like this right and and make it work for a little bit so i think because of those facts this isn't going to be the last of them that we see they're going to take other forms people are going to be like oh it's not like the other algo stable coins this one's actually going to work right [Laughter] and we're just going to see this play out again but that's why i said the social social signaling is so powerful because you keep signaling that these

things you know they can't work they're just kind of like fundamentally broken more and now more people will believe you when you say that because it's not just crying wolf anymore the wolf came to [ __ ] eat the chickens right and it ate a lot of chickens i don't know there's like the the optimistic cautiously optimistic take that like okay when the 50 billion dollar algo stable coin ecosystem goes to zero then we learn our lesson like you won't learn it at 10 billion dollars you won't learn at 20 billion dollars but okay at 50 billion dollars we'll learn the lesson how do you feel about that have have we learned the lesson because there's going to be new people coming in who haven't learned this lesson at all next summer i did say that like okay the last bull market we did have like a top 10 coin do the same

thing it was an actual ponzi yeah but it is one of the differences about this whole ponzi collapse is that like this one was pumped by a lot of just like ecosystem people i mean as you and i pump eth but like at least it doesn't blow up though like yeah yeah yeah and it stays around but i mean also like atheists can't just go to zero like that at all i mean eth has fallen a lot in the past but it can't do that unless it was like i mean i don't even know the scenario where it would go to zero if unless there was like an infinite mint bug but then it would just get reversed you know whatever like that's what you were saying exactly the ecosystem could have mitigated this and like yeah if even in worst case ethereum scenarios like we can still mitigate that

yeah exactly and the funny thing is is that you're right they would have had no plan at all like they should have had a worst case scenario plans like hey guys like what happens when it goes into a death spiral but i i truly believe that doklan and probably his closest kind of like people within the company didn't believe that it could death spiral they actually believed that they had created something that was basically a perpetual motion machine an infinite money printer and uh that obviously wasn't the case and i think his ego um is infinite like i actually don't think he's learned his lesson i've been seeing his tweets he's not remorseful it seems like he just wants to try and get it back up and running and kind of like you know restore his god status um yeah and do it again right but it's not gonna happen

it's the same with every other one that we've seen like daniel sesta right you guys called that out as well the frog nation crap like same thing happened there um a bunch of others um andre cronje is a bit of a different scenario but he eventually got to that status like um you know but but he is a bit of a different scenario yeah it was it was definitely adjacent but there's so many of these things right and and i think that people just need to stop creating cults like guys let's stop creating cults of personality around these people guys like it's just it's not healthy it doesn't lead us anywhere good um but yeah man like i don't know craziest kind of like weak in in crypto for me just because of the speed and and you know just the mental kind of like

mind [ __ ] of it all was just insane and i think the legitimacy thing is the last thing i wanted to talk about um you're right in that like i think what ended up happening was that because it kept growing and because it didn't fail like it's the tractor said it would for such a long period of time at least in crypto you know a year is like an eternity right um and and and then all these kind of like vcs and funds and legitimate people piled on because i think it was partly true that they didn't want to miss the train but they also didn't want to get kind of like attacked right before going against the grain because they're like oh you know as we're discussing it's really hard to put up with this sort of stuff like it's actually it makes you feel really bad

you feel it when you're getting attacked by this mob so i think a lot of them either defaulted to just being neutron and not really saying anything about it or going in on it and being like i can join this train too i can make money i can you know have everyone loving me because of it and the people that did that they've yeah they're like massive kind of like uh taking massive reputational hits here and uh i don't know like i think they're gonna be the most affected by it in the long term because the people in this industry know those people and they remember things they keep the receipts right and they definitely don't let this slide but on the retail side of things yeah i mean i don't expect the the the retail investors to learn too much about about this sort of stuff yeah you did

mention about how this was going to set us back and like hinted at regulation so i want to i want to talk about that next but before you do guys every now and then i pull my friend anthony here into a live stream every friday sometime thursdays used to be consistent but that was during covet and uh since non-coveted it's been a little bit harder but every now and then we do this i'd say about once a month maybe once every six weeks uh i don't know if you guys are living under a rocket but if you are living under a rock you can follow anthony at his daily gray youtube channel which i just posted in the chat there he does these youtube videos uh a ridiculous amount of days almost every single every single day uh except for every single weekday every single day no

not saturday and sunday yeah just weekdays i ask you that every single time because i always forget um but like i there's one of the few podcasts that i listen to every single day uh and his youtube channels right there he also does a daily great newsletter which he puts out also every [ __ ] day uh so he's one of these guys that produces a lot of content like bank list which you can also go ahead and subscribe to uh okay see hey i've gotten better at this by the way the shilling is done okay so how far is this going to set back our industry and regulation i think those are the perhaps the topics next uh people i've heard this line that like okay it set back the crypto industry like one to two years uh like and i think my gut take was like oh wow really

that seems like a long amount of time um so first question there also i'm kind of down for that like i'm kind of down for a slow market like how do you feel about these things look the time line on it is basically impossible to say like anyone giving timelines on this sort of stuff is just guessing pure guessing there is no rhyme or reason to any timelines you could give right because for example we could go to all-time highs again and the adoption would pick up like exponentially again right because i think the main thing that drives adoption and crypto is prices going up like we have enough evidence to support that so i don't think you can actually put a timeline on how long this is kind of like quote-unquote set adoption back or anything like that what i think um is is true here is that it has set an

adoption back in the sense that it's gonna suppress the prices for a while it's gonna put us into this deep bear market and it's going to bring with it more regulation and increase scrutiny scrutiny which is going to make teams probably ship slower because of the fact that they're going to be more scared to ship certain things due to regulations due to kind of like law enforcement and things like that uh and we're probably going to get less innovation out of that too because everyone's going to be scared of it does this look like a ponzi or does this look like you know terror can i get in trouble for this and this is probably most true for the docs teams maybe the anon teams keep kind of doing what they're doing um and i think that people are going to be cautious about jumping into these things for a while as

well because they might be like you know is this going to blow up like terror again like i don't put money into this i don't want to lose my money i don't want what happened to terror focus to happen to me so those are kind of like the effects that i see happening but timelines i don't know it's impossible man like i don't think anyone can give a timeline on this sort of stuff yeah uh but how do you feel about that being a good thing or a neutral thing or a bad thing like i i think the goal is yeah it's a bad thing because we want crypto to take over the world but taking the perspective of like a first cycler especially perhaps a first cycler that just got hurt right like maybe they were in bitcoin and eth and they only have

seen a 65 draw down instead of being in terra or or and being a hundred percent a drawdown or an all layer one and being at 85 percent like for the first light girl out there who's like looking at crypto prices being like f uh i'm pro good thing for that part of the population yeah i mean i mean most first cyclers are already gone i think like they leave right i mean in terms of kind of like if they're if they're here for like a first cycle and they just kind of like speculate and they lose money and they leave right but if we're talking about like first cyclists who actually stick around and wait for the next cycle to come around um i think they're like from from my experience talking to some of them they're actually very excited right they're very excited because

they're going to be able to buy things at a cheaper price of course they're going to be able to scoop up some value kind of like out there right and they also i think have the same belief that i have in that this industry isn't ready for mainstream adoption dude like nowhere close right i'm sorry but like there are so many issues with what we're building still the scale issues is is a major one ui ux like i'm sorry but like how are we ready for mass adoption i mean you know paulina actually goes on about this a lot and he's he and they're pretty um pretty steady fast about this but they say they're still very disappointed in this industry because we've built so many ponzi's and so many money games and things like that but we're not actually building anything that's mass adoptable

because we're still waiting for scale right and that's that's here and coming and improving over time we're still building out the core infrastructure still upgrading things blah blah still getting ethereum through the merge and things like that but like even on the ui ux side of things like it's still very hard and and the funny thing is that when we were making progress on this with the neo banks a lot of them just went to anchor um because that was the top yield and they've wrecked their users right so like it was getting better and now we've kind of like been set back by that a little bit and regulators are definitely coming for those neobanks they're they're [ __ ] like honestly like this anything that that kind of like does that and sits as a front end on top of things it doesn't actually make the

risks like readily available to users is [ __ ] like in my eyes yeah and and they should be regulated right like like their centralized entity if you can be regulated you should be regulated if you can't be regulated then you shouldn't be regulated and this is a very fair take because a ton of like like you said layers around anchor just like aft a lot of people who put in deposits thinking wow like 20 savings account amazing take all my money and like you know like some people are good a lot of people are gonna get sucked in by that um where was i gonna go with this uh going back to like the whole first cycle or like prices thing like the ones that stick around there's this very savage quote out of the bitcoiner camp that i

like uh what's the word shot and freud and lee love uh which is um uh people buy bitcoin at the price they deserve it which you can extrapolate that to ether right but like uh it's basically a timing in the market as in just like people who got in early deserved it because they saw the vision early but also if we're going down into a bear market and uh people are like you know losing their wealth because it's their first first cycle and they're getting hurt but they stick around like they're gonna buy ether bitcoin their preferred asset at the price that they deserve it right uh and so uh it's great to hear that like people are coming into this bear market like excited uh especially when there's like so like i think we're in the golden age of building right now uh the the layer two summer which is uh

not at the sound of things going to be like a price summer but it's gonna be a building summer is perfect if we have the golden age of building on layer twos which is literally surface area for further it's like surface area for high growth defy haps with tokens and user acquisition onboarding capacities because of low fees if that golden age of building happens during a bear market it means the people that stick around and believe just have this opportunity for i don't know how many years are people saying this tara thing is going to set us back one to two years uh and so we're gonna have like the golden age of ethereum building because people can't [ __ ] like differentiate ethereum from the rest of defy and so like the people who have that information asymmetry about the secure

sustainable layer two app layer building which also has bridges in between those things so there's surface area there to build stuff as well like there's gonna be so much opportunity while people just forget about the crypto industry once again as they do every four years yeah yeah and i think the reason why uh at least the first cycles that i talk to are so excited is because like i've given like my personal story many times in my community on my show about how like i stuck around i double down during the bear market and like not just myself but like so many people that you see that that are really successful today did the same thing and i give like the reasons why it's like really good to do that and why it kind of like it can work out for you it's not guaranteed to but

like it can work out for you and why you should stick around and i think that's why they're just so excited right like some of them obviously are going to be underwater on their eighth buyers already because maybe they got in later and they wrote it like 3 4k yeah exactly exactly and i explained that to them i'm like and i put a percentage number on it because i say to them like hey you know if you bought it at 4k right now um and and sorry 4k back a few months ago and the price is 2k now you're down 50 of course right and i say to them i did the same thing in october uh 2018 where i bought ether 220 dollars thinking it was the bottom and then eight went to 80 so i was down more than 50 and the thing is people don't realize

the intuitiveness of kind of like the numbers and the percentages like just because the numbers are much smaller doesn't mean the percentages were different like it's the same thing it's the same amount of money lost so so kind of like from that perspective i think that's what my uh my viewers and my listeners people kind of like who are in my community uh are really um are really paying attention to that sort of stuff so that's why they're excited about it but i think there's not many of those people like the majority do not stick around for the bear market they leave and they come back and they'll regret it they're like oh my god why did i leave right so i think there's a lot of that going on uh definitely and uh no i i think that's exciting for those people i you know i hope they do stick

around like they get jobs too like a lot of them are getting jobs within crypto which is something that a lot of us couldn't do back in the day because there wasn't that many jobs to go around but now there's heaps right yeah so um you know i think it's exciting oh my camera's gone out of focus we go we're back we're back yeah yeah yeah the differences between these bear markets i think are very very stark uh so much more surface area to build stuff like going back to the 2017-2018 bear market as when i started this when i decided that like i'm gonna be in this crypto thing like i can't remember why i was bullish about ethereum like there was nothing in 2018 that was like worthwhile to stick around for like d5 wasn't a thing nfts weren't a thing uh and and like why the hell did i stick

around i don't really know but that lends itself to like uh people uh those people buy crypto the price of their choice people buy ether at the price that they deserve it right like they're the people that stuck around saw the potential uh and so like ether is a little bit higher now but like the amount of surface area and jobs and and uh just cash that is in this ecosystem right now because there's been a ton of money being raised so like there's going to be a lot more jobs and a lot more room for jobs for people to come into this market and stick around and then actually just buy the dip for two years straight hopefully not that long yeah yeah yeah no i think in 2018 there was a spark basically like a small little kind of like spark that we all kind of

potentially saw like there's something here we don't know exactly what it is but there's there's definitely something here um and i now i think in 2022 there's a raging wildfire there's no spark it's kind of like we know what's here we know what we're going to build we know what works we know everything that's coming uh we're not everything but we know like you know what we're building what we're doing um and i think that's the like a key difference but yeah also the fact that it's just much easier to get a job now so more people are going to stick around for that like 2018 was basically impossible to get a job in cryptocurrency it was so bad i was lucky enough to get three jobs in crypto and two of them blew up after like six months yeah exactly yeah yeah so yeah exactly okay

there was getting a job and it was getting a sustainable job right one that didn't wasn't gonna run out of money or blow up or anything like that i mean i got my job in mid 2019 with kind of like sets um and they hadn't raised i think since their first race or whatever and they kind of needed to raise but the market was like super quiet and then you know all that the rest is history from there but yeah joining a crypto startup back then was much riskier than it is today like today they have so much money like it's just stupid amounts of money right real products and real customers like this these are the differences here yes exactly exactly so i think um you know the the first cyclers this time around are going to have a way easier time than than we had but that's good i

like that i i don't this is a different one yeah i don't want to experience 2018 2019 again like it wasn't a fun time that's for sure right right um oh did you okay changing subjects here unless you have anything else you want to touch on um did you watch the uh the hal press uh super bullish ether video we did on bankless i am like i'm like halfway through it yeah um i've heard really good things about that from my community as well they've watched it too but yeah i mean if you want a tldr for people i guess i think the the the quickest thing ltldr is that he just he just makes the illustration that the if ethereum is at this particular equilibrium right now because of minor cell pressure like all proof of work blockchains are uh and because like

every single day the equilibrium of the eat price has been like set towards a particular amount of million dollars of cell pressure every single day to to secure the blockchain uh and as soon as we go and do the merge it flips on its head where it goes i can't remember the numbers i think it's like 15 million dollars today which is like not small 50 million a day of cell pressure every single day uh is like you know you got to tally some numbers up over the time uh and then when the merge happens it flips so it goes from 15 million of cell pressure to 15 million by pressure and so over the last how many years of ethereum seven years of ethereum's lifespan like it's just come to this equilibrium of just figuring out how to live inside of a market that has 15

million dollars a day of cell pressure and then all of a sudden it flips and goes to to buy pressure just like the snap of the fingers right and so like and so one of my questions for him was like okay how many how long will that flip turn to like uh it manifests in the actual price of the thing like his answer was basically like pretty [ __ ] fast uh and so this guy has uh uh calls out for eight thousand dollar ether in december bro this december yeah he doesn't that's not his only position but that was like his position but like nuts dude yeah i mean i'm i'm yeah obviously super bullish on eighth but 8 000 by december seems i mean it's a good bet like if it happens because like he's probably gonna

make a lot of money on that um if it does materialize but uh yeah i mean the speed at which things happen is kind of hard to tell as well i think in this industry because it's like suddenly uh sorry slowly than all at once it's kind of like the motto right for a lot of these things but i think the main takeaway i've had as i said i've only listened to half of it half of it but the main takeaway i got from what he was talking about was that he looks at these things as like just businesses right like cash flow businesses with expenses all that sort of stuff and he kind of like articulates the point quite well in that these other blockchains even if they're proof of stake they're leaking so much value because they're paying validators to inflation but not

offsetting that with the fee burn that can actually upset that yes they have it may have a fee burn implemented but they're not burning enough to kind of like be sustainable right um whereas ethereum is ethereum is net deflationary literally every single block once the merge goes through and we've been that deflationary on proof of work days which is just like insane right um and yeah that minor cell pressure gone uh there's no withdrawals after directly after the merge for like at least six months which is a gimmick but like for six months it matters i mean i think i think it's a narrative right it's a narrative that'll push the price higher in my mind um but but but definitely uh i i think that he articulated all that quite well and i mean he betting his whole fund on eath right that's what he's doing yeah he's

betting his entire fund on ethan he's my type of person and he watches the all-core devs call bro he actually yeah which is actually crazy to think about as in like the ethereum ecosystem builds in the open right like it builds transparently it builds inside out and so there's like this one guy who has like i don't know 30 50 million dollar fund i don't know the numbers uh but he was like yeah no one else is doing this uh but i'm going gonna listen to the elkhorn devs call and just like expose myself more and more and more to to as the merge comes uh and so like he's we asked him is like is anyone else doing this he goes like no one else is doing this i don't i don't know why right it's like it's like some people in uh tune in to the investor calls some

people turn into tune in to the federal reserve notes and other people tune into like how much progress the ethereum client teams have made on the merge and that's this guy and like he's aping the entire fund into the merge and his his prediction is that like and this is a guy who's like he's got skin in the game right and so like he's not you and me who are like you're you're pretty balanced about this uh sometimes i get a little bit over my ski tips and i'm like guys merge coming soon merch coming soon but i'm inside of the ethereum ecosystem and he is outside of the ethereum ecosystem with the fund on the line like neutral unbiased third party and he's like august i think it's august yeah yeah yeah which is nice yeah yeah yeah exactly and the thing is that matches exactly with

my expectations that i've had for a while now um which is which is cool to just see that kind of like validate it there but i think yeah there's kind of like listening to the call itself and then reading like the headlines like for example yesterday i put out a tweet announcing that roxton was going to be kind of like the run through the test net sorry the merge on june 8th or approximately june 8th right that's the headline that's like a tiny bit of that you know whole core devs call and you can get so much alpha by just listening to the call itself right and kind of like getting all the nitty-gritty details not just around the merger but around kind of like everything else and i think that's you know what he's trying to do which is which is awesome like you

know what the funny thing is i don't even listen to the course there's a lot of time to happen when i'm sleeping but i do i do read the notes and keep i keep on top of it but yeah there's even more alpha to be had by just sitting there listening to the calls and like embracing kind of like the whole the whole thing the whole ethereum thing so yeah i mean i i think he's uh he's gonna he's gonna have a very good time over the coming years with that bet uh definitely i mean obviously i'm biased but i think he's uh he's making an amazing bet then and i'm glad to see that because it sends a signal to the kind of ecosystem to other money managers that hey you know you don't have to put your whole fund here but there is there is something here

definitely and he articulates it in such a way that maybe you and i don't um from like a traditional finance perspective which is what we need because it's all well and good for me to give the bull thesis faith but i give it as a as an ethereal i give the kind of like in the weeds stuff i don't articulate it exactly i don't i don't give the analogies that that he was giving so i think that is extremely important because most people are not crypto natives most of the money in the world is 99 of it is 19 crypto right so to get it into crypto we need people to articulate it in such a way that uh normies can understand right and people normies in the crypto context can understand and i think that's exactly what he's doing so yeah i mean i i'm

keen to finish through the rest of it but a lot of alpha in that you know that show just in it of itself yeah it was definitely our first episode with him and it was our first time like engaging with this guy so like the episode we it was like a very long episode for for what we do is like an hour one in three quarters hours but we're definitely going to have him back on as we get better talking to this guy and communicating with him and seeing how he perceives things uh because like there's value in the crypto native pitch because i mean i'm all for tearing down old standards of doing things and like replacing tradify with better fi but also at the same time the fact that we can retrofit ether fundamentals on to tried and true fundamentals of the old world and it's

not like they just like it's not like their thing is just made up like those are real metrics with real analysis and real fundamentals that a lot the majority of wealth in this world understands and the fact that we can retrofit ether into those models and it comes out with an output that makes a ton of sense and not only makes a ton of sense but it's really effing bullish then all of a sudden like the old money can couple to the new money via this common understanding right like one of my favorite lines is that the the most bullish thing for ether is to be understood right and we can take ether metrics and plug them into old algorithms to spit out a very bullish answer that is interpretable by trillions of dollars right like that's that's as collapsed as i can get the

whole the whole thesis yeah and i think on that understood notion so the the bet on ether i think or the bet on on like just assets in general like investing in general is that there is information asymmetry there is kind of like an understanding or an information arbitrage to be had here where you have access to this information before the majority of people and uh you know you are making the bet that that information is going to continue being dispersed it's going to continue kind of like flowing into the rest of the world the rest of the money and that money is going to eventually understand and kind of like come into eat and that's how obviously the price appreciates over time over the long term at least so that's kind of like the bet and i i think that it's a really good bet because over time eighth

and ethereum have become more understood right it was it went from basically not being understood at all in you know 2018 2019 to being the you know people you know even even like the most kind of like odd and like not anti-age people but the people that wouldn't really support ethereum or eth are now collapsing in and of themselves i'm saying i was wrong eth actually has kind of like value all this sort of stuff right so i think that's the most bullish thing i i think for me um but uh but yeah i mean we could talk about being bullshitting it's all day of course and i think we shall right how we are we got a surprise guest uh yeah he's not coming in yet uh i kind of jumped the gun on that but he should be here in in a couple moments um okay yeah

we'll we'll leave the guests hanging with who's coming in here but he can only stay for a few minutes but not so can we um i guess there's another time you do one of these uh oh no not that one don't share that link then we'll get 10 000 people in here and that's bad uh okay what's up guys uh anthony and i do this every now and then uh if you have new to bank list which is crazy you should definitely subscribe but you should also subscribe to the link that i put in the uh top chat which is anthony's daily grade youtube channel which he puts out daily videos about the ethereum ecosystem uh and you know keeps us up to speed and also critiques the things that should be critiqued every now and then and so uh yeah you should uh subscribe to his

channel there um let's see where do we wanna where we wanna go from here so i mean so many what's on my mind actually um right now uh outside of all the craziness of the last week is just how close the merge is i know that we were just talking about but like come on man like it's may and we're expecting it in august like it's it's so close like it's three months that's three months exactly exactly like i i was just cause like the shadow folks are going well they announced the test net as i mentioned before the robson test netflix on the call debs call today like it's so goddamn close like i i feel it like i can i can see it like it's it's there i just want to grab it and kind of like yeah

so i'm just like i am ecstatic like i just i can't believe that we're just like almost at the finish line after so so long and um i don't think people realize how close it is there are still people who think that it's not going to happen at all like ah what like how does that even make any sense do you see corey clips you know swan bitcoin it's like this bitcoin neo bank savings only neobank corey clifton the ceo who i interviewed on pov crypto way back in the day he was a nice guy because he had to put on the nice i'm a ceo face um yeah he tweeted out uh something something here's the secret that eth maxis don't want you to know ethereum is just a more convoluted like ridiculous version of tara and like i read that tweet and if it would have been one thing if it

was like 10 15 20 likes it but it had like 2 500 likes and i was looking at this tweet i'm like what do i do with this like yeah what how do i even begin here because you can't fight that fight on twitter people that 2 500 people liking a tweet that says aetherium is just as convoluted is more convoluted than tara like what are you gonna do you're gonna fight that fight on twitter are you serious but like the information asymmetry is only getting worse here's eric i mean here's dokwan [Laughter] what's up man yeah what's up guys how's it going i think you're all you're the mike's uh not on i think it's your your good night

here we go there we go yeah there you go that's much better eric connor's in the house man dude uh [Laughter] yeah if you guys remember and anthony used to do a podcast together like four years ago [Laughter] four weeks now oh god we gotta do it next week man like we've let it go on too long yeah i think we have some angry listeners out there yeah yeah yeah yeah well maybe you guys can just do it here huh yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah eric you know what i'm loving i'm loving the most lately the like you'll return to twitter has just been hey guys i'm

back it's going to 10k shitpost [ __ ] it's just constant [ __ ] posting it's just such a great return man i bet you're having fun right yeah i'm loving it yeah i mean you guys know i love a good bear market i'm not going to shy away from that so they're all second times right exactly the second i saw some desperation on twitter i decided it was time to hop back but it was a good hiatus dude you could just say yeah you know all the blood in the air and she's like i'm coming back yeah you had to yeah i mean we need some comedy out there during bear markets so no one take my post too seriously these days but you know i i do truly believe though that people are overreacting like i i just i mean yeah i know we hit 1700 or

whatever but we're still at like 2k like 18 months ago we were all crying and we were at like 80. so i don't know i'm not fully buying into the bear market stuff but i mean i know some people bought a lot higher than we're at but no it was it was over two years ago it was like two year four months or something when was it last two years two two months yeah yeah well the phase zero launched december of 20 20 20 20. so and that's right when he started taking off so yeah yeah well okay yeah yeah so well also we hit 2000 we hit like 1700 last may right uh and so like it's been one year since we've hit these prices it was the one year anniversary when we

crack like may 12th was like the first big crash to 1700 and then we did it again it's like like it's so poetic how that happens like literally on the one year anniversary like um but yeah no i mean i'm with eric on that like i know it's easier for us to say since we bought eth like it a lot a lot cheaper than what it is today but i don't know like i feel like people acting like the world is ending like i mean guys if it goes down 94 again from its all-time high it's like 300 bucks that's what happened like if that happens i feel like uh i i mean i'd be panicking like pretty badly i'd be like in a corner being like what happened how did it all go wrong [Laughter] sorry yeah twitter because you bought is that what

happened um you know i didn't do my typical like yolo this is the bottom buy i was talking to anthony a little bit yesterday i i i bought a few nft dips mainly because i just see nfts as like leveraged eath um so and there were a couple of desperation plays out there i saw going on so you know i did deploy some capital but i haven't yet so that's the thing though like i don't make my like blood in the streets yellow eats bottom by slash calls unless like it's really blood in the street and to me 2000 is not what it's sure what anthony was just talking about is blood in the street like if we were talking like three four five hundred and people are like you know it's funny people are just spoiled these days right like 55 off the

high is not that bad it's just not right but does that mean we're going down mark uh i don't know it's hard to say i i don't think so i i think he's you know bitcoin only went down what what was it like 80 when eth went down 94 whatever last cycle and i think every cycle the big guys will go down less i i think eve came out stronger out of all this drama of course it's going to suck and like we're going to bounce around chop city for a while but i don't know i i think max payne downs in like the 70s percentages but which will happen if the macro environment stays ugly that's one thing people need to remember right yeah that's that's certainly true but also at the same time we're seeing an

acceleration of just like the biggest bear market signals as a result of this whole tara thing like funds are blowing up people are losing all their net worth like we're we're doing the suicide hotline thing on the top of subreddits regulators regulators are coming in like these are all the same conversations and then and the happenings like uh like right now the the suicide hotline is like contained into one ecosystem but like dude it was pinned across like many many icos met like our cryptocurrency throughout all of 2018 and 2019 oh yeah and like and this is where funds would blow up on leverage over and over and over again and so like i'm wondering if we just like brought some of the bear market pain forward a little bit because of this whole uh luna crash ecosystem

thing yeah that's my take yeah i mean i definitely agree with you i think also like i tweeted this the other day but it seems like every freakout quote-unquote bear market event to me is less and less systematically scary like for me i've witnessed four big ones like gox was the first one for me and like everyone thought that could be the end of bitcoin then the dow hack everybody thought was the end of ethereum then we had like you know black thursday where oh [ __ ] did we scrub this whole d5 thing and like you know it all going to zero and to me like a ponzi collapsed thing yeah i get it people lost a lot of money i mean i feel bad about that but like the theorem itself is just not really affected by this like funds blowing up does not affect the

future of ethereum right and that that wasn't the case in like past you know collapses that we've seen yeah yeah go for it anthony i think yeah i was gonna i think the current debate right now um at least in my circles is was may 2021 the start of the bear market was november 2021 the start of the bear market because people are saying oh well the new all-time high in november was just a dead cat bounce yeah we went to a new all-time high but it was still technically if you look at the chart like a dead cat right and i can see both sides of this so if you fall into like the may 2021 top camp we've already been in a bear market for a year right but then if you fall into the november one it's six months i actually think the

november one was driven by the macro environment going nuts like it's last hurrah before like all these some fed kind of rate rises and stuff kind of started coming out right and the really big inflation numbers um so i don't know i don't know where i sit on that one i i i'm leaning towards more towards may being that kind of like top because the thing is we blew off really [ __ ] hard in may right within a week we went down from 4.4k to 1700 like that was a massive blow off top people got absolutely destroyed on leverage we had a huge volume candle like it was it was one of the biggest in history right so i think if you're depending on what camp you fall on is is kind of like uh it determines like how you feel about the current market like if we're going to

stay at 1700 at the bottom or if we're going to go to max payne triple digits like that i agree with eric that's like max blood in the streets you know i would pull out all the stops to buy as much as i could at that price point right um but like you know i don't have much ammo left at this point just keep buying but prematurely some of those figurines yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah max stopping myself for your community on those markets right now yeah you might just start seeing the room get very bad like uh because uh the eighth is in triple digits but no i think that's like yeah depending where you fall on that kind of like opinions uh kind of um spectrum there is is how you're gonna feel about the current kind of the market i think ralph paul when we had our interview

with him gave a take that i think i'm leaning into which is that uh inflation came from asset price appreciation all the people that had assets in the stock market and crypto assets started buying a bunch of houses and just like being super price insensitive uh and like i heard some stat from some article so of course it's true uh that one-fifth of all mortgages in the united states in the year 2022 were came from crypto wealth or 2021 came from from crypto wealth uh so you know that like a lot of this asset depreciation is coming from just or this inflation's coming from asset appreciation so if you take that fact uh the [ __ ] the crash of the tech stocks which were the big growers and then the overall the crash of the market and the crypto market is just killing demand right and so the source

of inflation came from asset price appreciation and now that we're back to like pre-inflation levels well well paul thinks that uh the inflation is already dead but since cpi is a lagging indicator the fed can't act on it uh because they have to wait for the verifiable like numbers to show up saying yo inflation's actually dead even though it's already been dead for months and like one very small anecdote that i've been thinking about lately is i'm moving to brooklyn and so i bought a bunch of patio furniture coming to san diego to put on on my patio and like relatively nice stuff but like now i've got to sell it and so i'm selling it one year use and i have it like 50 to 70 percent off and like they're not going i'm actually kind of stressed by it and i don't know what to

do with this [ __ ] but like yo like one-year-old patio furniture five to fifty to seventy percent uh like that yeah like and no one's going for it it's like yo demand's dead like verifiable like there's your data yeah yeah just one dart but verifiable data point um yeah yeah don't get liquidated on your patio furniture yeah that's fine i'll go ahead and you go now you go okay now i was just gonna say like one like going back to the markets a little bit i think people are pointing to luna as this collapse which obviously was a factor but it was like macro the stock market was getting ugly to begin with i think we were headed generally in this direction no matter what and it just kind of accelerated i mean if you

look at the s p 500 graph they've had six straight weekly red candles which is like pretty unheard of for the s p 500 right but one of the funny things i you know you go mainstream in like wall street journal cnbc they're all talking about the great crypto crash meanwhile like if you look at some of the stocks here to date like paypal is down fifty percent year-to-date netflix yeah meta's down four like there are a lot of tech stocks down more than ethan's from you know over the last 12 months or whatever so that's a that's a new paradigm for sure that used to not happen and that's a that spooks me a little bit on the macro side but also maybe the selling's wearing out you know at the same time a lot of those stocks also wiped out

like their entire pandemic gains like they're back to march 2020 prices basically whereas eighth is still up like over 20 x since it's bottom back then right so just looking at like that i think is amazing because everyone's like oh you know crypto's like super volatile super risky stocks are like where you need to be i mean okay a lot of the the long tail of crypto assets definitely just gigawrecked like they're down 90 plus percent right but like when i talk about crypto investing in i'm talking about like you know eighth right at the end of the day so i think when you look at it like that is faring you know amazingly which is which is which is quite a cool thing and something to keep in mind i think for people as well like if people were in other assets that got destroyed in crypto like i'm sorry

guys like that's just what happens every single time like you know you're speculating on things that are inherently worthless a lot of the time they got no value accrual at all right they've got no value like valueless governments they're just nude too and so yeah like those people are super risky right yeah exactly super risky and like a lot of them also what a lot of people forget is that they have early investors unlocking all the time right and dumping like huge amounts of tokens onto the market and liquidity mining programs things like that i mean we all saw this play out already in d5 summer like we learned our lessons right that's why i think i don't know don't speak for you guys but for myself like i don't speculate on many of these tokens anymore like it's just i know what ends up happening they all

have the same graph like it's just insane right yeah yeah um yeah well i mean it's natural for like the coin market cap or now coin gecko like the tokens the further down the the tokens are the more the capital flies up right it flies up to the quality assets with the most liquidity that are the most stable uh but over like i think bitcoin and ether are down like the same percentage i think ether was down 65 and bitcoin was down 64 from the top uh which is just fantastic in comparison to the last cycle because i think they're down about the same right now though i think um they got a little bit wrecked on that sell-off there right yeah yeah but like

the ratio the ratio ratio charge is priming for post-merge breakout i mean it's like perfectly lined for it i don't take opinionated positions very often i usually just buy eth but i did put ethan to compound borrow bitcoin bought more east and put that back in the compound to trade the merge i did do that yeah yeah i mean it's it's coming people are just sleeping i mean it's going on robsten what in a month or something like that it was they said today yeah approximately yeah yeah it's about a month i mean it's gonna catch people i think off guard just like phase zero launch did just like one five five nine did most people like i don't think this stuff's priced in i don't think the market's educated enough to

really understand it and i think the one thing that's really going to catch people off guard is what the staking notes are going to look like once you add in transaction fees and med what do you think that number's going to be i've been estimating ballpark fifteen to twenty percent just randomly down on that i think consensus around seven percent well it depends well it's it depends right because i think say we get up to 15 people are gonna flood it so i like i think equilibrium will probably end up settling around where you're saying seven percent something like that but early on we might see before people kind of catch on to what it is but yeah it's tough to say i haven't done any real number crunching on it yeah the numbers

that came out to like 13 to like 17 a while ago were based on two assumptions like that was during defy summer when there was like two to four hundred per like uh great prices so a lot of just like transaction fees but then all that estimation also came from a 70 30 base fee tip split uh which was also hypothesized and then kind of was true a little bit but then kind of it's dwindled to the new equilibrium now which is 90 10. uh and so there's 90 90 percent of a transaction fee goes to the base fee and only 10 goes to the tips and so with the reduction of uh the gray price for gas prices as well like the the new like kind of consensus i've heard lately is like about seven percent post merge the one big thing i've i

haven't seen good analysis around i've asked on twitter a little bit and just haven't got there is what to expect on the mev side like how much are miners truly pulling in on the mbb side right now i don't know it's hard to i saw a couple links and it just was kind of complex to go try to calculate my my gut take is that that gets you back up to like 13 to 15 right if you are the best mev miner i bet you get up to 13 to percent again but you gotta be doing some real shady [ __ ] well i mean tech guys people are just gonna release open source software to just run as a and you just basically take it right kind of like flash spots i think that's right yeah well there's also the dynamic that mev actually

doesn't stay on the layer one and layer one actually stays like relatively efficient with our arbitrage but the mev actually moves up to layer two is where there's a lot more transaction volume and a little transaction demand that's i think hazu gave that take uh or no it was actually his audrey kyle simani gave that take uh where uh uh layer twos uh eat up all the mev uh which i mean he that his claim was that it's bearish for the layer one which i don't agree with at all but i actually just think that's especially bullish for layer twos though fun fact that was optimism's initial profitability plan was just take all the mev themselves and be profitable before they i think that's it that's become like the new table stakes for all layer twos is that you generate revenue from

the layer two but i think optimism very quickly realized that like oh well if we want to beat other layer twos we have to basically uh incur all of this revenue into public goods uh because that makes that starts the feedback loop right and so like that was them going through their thinking process of the whole thing i i think um yeah no i think the the layer 2 thing uh like it's it's right like they're going to be the the transactional layers right so they're going to generate so much of this kind of like fear of a new mev and stuff and and i think the token in that sense makes sense because the token will be staked or something like that and people run validators and and sequences and things like that and earn an interface like that but the thing is is that

and the point that samani gets wrong here is that these layer twos have to pay ethereum layer one like in in eighth right and that if most of it gets burned so it doesn't take away from the and et is also the unit of account and like the money of these layer twos like it's not the native token of these layers isn't going to be the feed token for for for pretty much any of them i know people point to matic as being the fee token or the polygon pos chain but that was just like a byproduct of an old kind of design and the pos chain is is is obviously not a layer 2 so i think for their layer twos they just just use eighth right mattic will be the staking token things like that so same is true for pretty much all the layer two tokens

i i think there but yeah i think the post-merge staking yields is yeah hard to calculate because of the mav component and how that's all gonna shake out uh but yeah we could say 10 plus percent just just based on that and then as eric said we're going to see a flood of eighth come in like staking because 10 plus percent near risk-free yield pretty much risk-free yield on on denominating eighth like come on like i mean you know there's going to be a flood of of kind of like people coming in for that i think i think uh the last topic perhaps to talk about before we wrap things up here is how to get exposure to the merge that isn't with ether so there's like layer two tokens like matic there's two tokens on layer twos like the lyra token or the magic token

uh and then there's uh you're trying to farm air drops themselves uh there's lido and rocket pool uh do you guys have any like thoughts on on how to gain exposure to the merge without just like buying ether the obvious thing eric you you go you probably have different things um yeah i would say personally i would make plays on the infrastructure side of things so i think right now it's still a little complex for people to enter whether it's like coinbase or running their own node like coinbase is a complex when people don't want to put on coinbase and i think people are really yet to hear about say like a rocket pool i'll just use rocketball as an example i'm not like promoting them or whatever and just i own zero rpl tokens so i have

no instead of been saying this but i think people are kind of waiting for the merge to happen that's gonna be like a huge news event and people are gonna flood in because of deals and stuff and you know rocket pool's been building for years and all of a sudden people are going to say hey either i don't have 32 eth which is very understandable or hey i don't want to like worry about running this note infrastructure myself and i think we're going to see a big push of eth and users and popularity into a rocket pool or other infrastructure type plays that just make this easier for people right because like look i'm running my own e2 e2 phase zero nodes but shit's complex like it is not easy like if my machine blows up i look i got my private key somewhere but

recreating what i did you know 16 months ago it's not the easiest thing in the world and so i think that'll get better but most people are going to want to just kick click a couple buttons um you know via their metamask hardware wall whatever and just stay can be done so i i think the popularity there is going to rise yeah look it's kind of like hard for me to say with respect to the tokens themselves like ldo and rpl and things like that like i do hold some of those so just like but they're not like a huge part of my portfolio but i think 8th is just such a easy thing to bet on and such a like uh i guess shelling point not just for people within crypto as kind of like a bet on the merge and on

staking in general but outside of crypto like that the big money outside of crypto is not going to be buying these staking tokens they're going to be buying eight if they buy anything right your answer is after i told you it couldn't be yeah no i'm getting i'm getting to my answer yeah yeah it's it's wrapped in yeah i'm getting i'm getting to my answer um i think that when looking at tokens it doesn't matter if it's a staking token or a defect or whatever you can't just look at like the narrative as as anything more than a trade like maybe these things will pump into the merge on the narrative but then they're probably just going to bleed out like if they do that right you can't so when investing in in tokens um you you can't just look at one thing and be like i'm gonna hold

this thing for three years because it's emerging narratives like no you have to look at you know what's the distribution what's the supply like how much more tokens are coming to market what's the value accrual all that sorts of stuff you can't just base a long-term investment on a narrative that's going to play out over a few months right so i think from that perspective like i'm just going to give ethan my answer i don't care if you said i can't keep i'm giving it as my answer like that's my answer as my final answer lock it in that's it sorry that's my my view on betting on tokens basically [Music] all right guys eric thanks for coming into the stream man it's good to see you yeah for sure thanks for the invite this is my my first comeback in a while on on

any kind of podcast or video chat we need to do the ether podcast next week man we shoot them hanging for too long we should probably get back on that yeah yeah i wonder who's not doing that now let's let's book it in we're good we're good um yeah yeah cool all right guys good stuff cool thanks for stopping by eric uh for the the youtube listeners uh you guys know what to do like and subscribe and all that stuff here is anthony's uh daily uh eric was like i'm out here youtube youtube link to subscribe to that if you guys don't follow him so thank you everyone for tuning in to this semi-regular friday bakeless daily live stream we'll see you next time we do it

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