Analyzing Pump’s ICO

Transcript

I think we should just like spend a minute on just what ended up happening, what's been happening and uh because I think pump is sort of a pretty important um if you want to understand everything else other than Bitcoin. This is like you always want to look at a new especially in this size. It has implications around ICOs and how other projects launch and you have a whole pipeline of projects that are probably looking at this uh implications for Salana Bonk fun and other things right and future projects going to launch. Are they going to go via the exchange route or go through and launch uh on you know directly on chain so I just want to spend a minute on that because I think it's pretty important what happened.

Yeah, let's do it. Okay, there's two ways to look at this. So one is I'll just give an overview and then I'm curious to get your take. So, so pump launched. I mean, it is basically back to it its launch price from from what I can see on this chart. Um, yeah, it sold out in 12 minutes. Sold out in 12 minutes. Yeah, exactly. Actually, this is more interesting to me. So, by the way, it was 500 million raised. No, I think it was two. Was it 500? 250 or 500? Two. I thought it was I thought they Okay, I Here's what I think originally they originally wanted to raise a billion. They said that VCs were going to get 200 million and the public markets were going to get 800 million.

What ended up happening though is that there was ridiculous VC demand. I think they raised about 750 from VCs and then they opened up another I don't know if they I actually don't know. I didn't participate in this, but another 250 million or something in the public markets, but um I I I definitely could be wrong about this. Blockworks put together a bunch of data. It's free. If you just type in like Blockworks pump.f fun ICO data, you should find it. Um, so we had 10,145 unique people participated in the ICO. The medium median price of uh pump tokens purchased was $530.

The not the price, the the ticket size. Sorry, the ticket size. Yeah, exactly. Thank you. Um, uh, 45% of the wallets were were created in the last 40 were created in the last 24 hours before the ICO. Another 40% of the wallets were 90 to 365 days old. Um I think that's kind of the Yeah. Buy bit drove the most. Then uh Binance you mean Binance, right?

Yeah. Binance then then Bybit. That's interesting. Radium Sulfi Jupiter's RFQ. But look, it was uh largest one of the largest ICOs ever. Yeah. And it was done all entirely on chain. There was there were some like um raise that happened uh some of these distribution partners like centralized exchanges, right? But it was um like entirely process on chain. Mo most of it was which was Oh, I'm 446 million raised. You're right. Yeah, it was like it was it was like 400 raised and that was sold out in 12 minutes. So like look clearly they sold out 275 million in one minute. Look at this.

Just minutes post launch. Crazy. Yeah. Yeah. So, this actually makes you think, are we are I are IPO ICO IPO are people going to go public on chain in the future. Yeah, absolutely. I I think that's very much the case and this is just a a really interesting comp and I think other projects are observing. Um, Simon from Moonrock had an interesting take around like, you know, uh, praising the pump fun the pump team for, um, not, you know, quote unquote, bending their knee to exchanges, uh, as is Hyperlid. And, you know, I I think it it tells you everything you need to know about the cycle. Um, memecoin activity is is strong and Hyperliquid is pretty impressive what

they're pulling off. So yeah, it just uh yeah, but uh yeah, like look the price has sort of stabilized sort of rangebound between 50 like what is it five and six billion fully diluted. Um it's so so there's I think oh I haven't seen onchain data but I think there's a lot of rotation a lot of as as we discussed in the prior podcast like it feels like there's a lot of volume there's a lot of trading hands we'll see where it stabilizes but um you know do uh overunder do you think by next week because our producer uh Jared was telling us about koshi and and how those micro markets and are what he's playing it you know he's he's betting on So a as is as is tradition

all of our producers retire after a year because they become genius traders. Empire producers get way more these are like the the empire cubs so to speak. So Jared I hope you crush it. Um but I so so you have a market is pump uh greater like higher or lower in a week's time and by how much? I mean, you're like, is it going to rain in six weeks? Like, is it going to rain in New York on like August 1st? I don't know.

Okay. Okay. You're making me sound like an idiot. Uh, but okay. Like, maybe in in December's time. In December's time, is pump at 10 billion or two billion? Oh, man. I would guess we see some sort of sell-off at some point in the near in the next like 30 to 60 days. We see some sort of sell-off. I mean, if you're a VC who's struggled to book profits this this cycle, you got you got to take some you got to take some chips, right? Even if it's just a 50% gain. So, that's like I will try to do the short-term betting here that you're that okay, say different short-term sell-off, longer term, I think pump end pump ends up doing very well.

What What do you think we see first? uh pump at 10 billion or pump at uh two billion and you're and right now it's what 5.4 4 or something. What What do you think we touch? Two billion or 10 billion? Two or 10? Uh, right now for what it's worth for listeners that are not seeing the screen, 5.3 billion fully delated. I think we see two. Okay. What What would What would make you change your mind of the bed? What type of odds would you want to see on 10? Um, if the price chart starts to look something like Hyperlid did, which is when there's just no sellers, right?

Like if you look at the Hyperlid original chart, like this thing just went up and then it it actually it went down. So, this is what I think will happen to pump. Like it'll it'll do well, but like it will go down, but then it look at this consolidation. It didn't it just floated all of January and February around 20 bucks. Yeah. And this is just there are no sellers. You exhaust the sellers. So I think you have to go through a lot of that. But look, yeah, I I think Oh, sorry. Here. This I didn't get to the end here. I was missing this part.

This is what I was trying to say. This is what this is what I think will happen to Pump is like you do have to get through these sellers. Like there were people in Hype who were just like this is in in Hype's case it was the airdrop people, right? In Pump's case, it's the VCs. Like people got to book profits and sell. That's a full three months right there. Yeah. Exactly. So that took three months. It went and it fell down to 11 bucks. You know, April it was at 10 bucks and then it just, you know, steady climb up to 50. I think something similar happens to pump.

Yeah. I don't I don't think we see it below two for what it's worth. You think two or 10 first? Uh well because we don't ever because we don't see it below two. You invariably do hit 10 first. But you know I'm an investor so Yeah. I I just I just think that I continue to hold my thesis that if if you're looking at this on like a comp to hyperlquid and the like they started doing buybacks now and and so if if you continue to see memecoin activity and you know the profitability continues to be there and the buybacks are there then I think I think this the hyperlquid is the most logical comp and hyperl 46 billion and pump at five is uh I think that's the opportunity

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