Altcoin season and the four-year cycle with Jesse Eckel

Transcript

GM good morning welcome to the milroad show The Daily crypto show where we keep you in the crypto Loop like that one friend who knows everybody's business I'm your host Jay Hamilton and today we are joined by Jesse eckle a fellow podcaster YouTube Star crypto investor this guy's amazing so excited for you guys to meet him first time on the show we're going to talk about altcoin season is it coming is it ever going to happen we're going to talk about why Jesse is so confident that it is in fact coming we're also going to talk about why Jesse is not so confident in the mcoin super Pyle thesis and we might finish with why Jesse believes that crypto is really up only for the next few decades before we jump in there has been a scam going

around the internet that we have launched a milk token I want to set the record straight there is no milk token we have no plans and will never launch a milk Road token so if you see one if you get an email please please avoid do not click it is a scam be safe out there folks as always before we jump in we need to take a minute to hear from our sponsors do you own your data nope every post click and search you make is controlled and monetized by unseen Giants I've had enough it's time for navigate where their mission is to give back data ownership to you and share profits with you that's right money in your pocket how you ask first the

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operates with a 100% reserve and a transparent model create your account fund it with a few Taps and you're ready to go click the link in the description and join uphold today Jesse welcome to the milk Road Show glad to be here awesome to have you my man okay let's Jump Right In you seem to be very confident right now that we are going to have an altcoin season and that we're going to have it soon what makes you so confident in that right now well a lot of different reasons I guess we'll start with maybe just kind of the macro setup right now from a macros okay well actually let's start with the four-year cycle okay we'll start with the fouryear cycle if you

look at the fouryear cycle that the crypto's been on for the last since the Inception of of Bitcoin it's kind of followed this this very specific pattern where every four years it kind of does almost the same thing and every time people say hey this time it's it's going to be different it's not going to do the same thing and every time it ends up doing the exact same thing and um according to the fouryear cycle we're hitting the point where in 2025 we should see that parabolic rally and that lines up with what we've seen in past Cycles so so you have that you have this kind of like consistent fore cycle pointing towards a rally hitting in 2025 but but outside of that a lot of people point to liquidity so they'll say hey the fouryear cycle has nothing to do

with you know the Bitcoin having all these kind of things yeah yeah they'll point to it and say hey really this is all about global liquidity and if you look at Global liquidity uh metrics you can see that we have the FED uh cutting right so the fed's cutting we have China doing stimulus we have uh Europe cutting uh so we have a lot of liquidity coming into the market um at a time that lines up with this four-year cycle that's kind of played out on on repeat um so so all all these things play into like this idea that hey we're going to have a really good year uh maybe let's say for Bitcoin in 2025 and when you have a really good year for Bitcoin that always ends up working its way into the altcoins and that has to do with like basic psychology of like when Bitcoin

goes up and a lot of people miss out they always show up and they say hey we missed out on bitcoin but what else can we invest into like what could maybe be the next Bitcoin and usually that's like ethereum um maybe the cycle you'll have also salana it'll it'll be things like that like what's the next Bitcoin look kind of the biggest closest related things um and then from there when Bitcoin and or sorry when ethereum and salana go up they're going to do the same thing and they're going to say okay uh ethereum and Sala already went up what are going to be the next things to go up and so maybe it's like Unis Swap this this this and they they keep doing that on a repeat as new participants show up until they've worked their way all the way down to the very bottom of

the stack uh when the latest participants show up and they say okay everything of value has gone up um what about these ponies that are like doing 10,000% apy maybe they'll go up as well and then when you have like Ponzi season um that's when you'll probably likely see a really strong season for mem coins uh and then usually the whole thing collapses because a bunch of Leverage enters the system and that's we go into winter and that's how it plays out I love that you brought up uh the importance of liquidity as a more important factor actually don't know if you were saying this but our view is that liquidity is a much more important factor than the having and everybody thinks that is the having that is causing these fouryear Cycles but it's really

monetary control and monetary influence from governments that is doing this and has been doing this for the beginning it just happens that the having and these monetary Cycles line up every four years and have basically since Bitcoin was launched 15 years ago just happens to be a coincidence we had a long show all about this if you guys want to go back to this past show from earlier this week where we actually talked all about why this is happening check that show out guys um also on the psychological effect one thing that I think people forget and I I wonder if you agree with this is that it is if you're entering into a new market and you come in and there's an asset that cost $70,000 or $100,000 or whatever Bitcoin is at that point you

don't want to buy that you're like that's too expensive even though you can fractionally buy it even though you could buy one cent of it you want to buy the thing that costs you know 0.001 Cent because you feel more rich and you can buy more of it do you think that has an impact no exactly I think that has a massive impact it's just again everyone has this feeling of missing out that they that they miss the opportunity and that doesn't feel good like you know uh people that didn't invest in salana when it skyrocketed they felt like they missed that opportunity we were talking about this a little bit before before we started and because they felt like they missed that opportunity they looked for what they could invest into to try to catch up on that trade and so um what a lot of

people did is they looked around Sal and they said okay what projects what alts are on salana those will probably go up as well there wasn't a ton of alts on on salana at the time uh what you saw was like nfts like mad Lads which is the main collection on salana ended up skyrocketing and then you saw um the the things that got to the market quickest which was meme coins also ended up skyrocketing and so people are always going to reflexively when when asset goes up look for whatever the beta trade is and um and it's not that's not going to change anytime soon like that's just how people are wired for whatever reason so I think the the the question and the theory that a lot of people have in this cycle is that this Cycle's different right because Bitcoin

did hit all-time highs back in March and we didn't see the typical rotation to alts what what makes you think that we are going to see it this time why do you still think this cycle is going to be similar to past well Bitcoin at alltime high early that is true but we also had the the ETF which is a different development I don't think really throws anything off that was just hey we had this Catalyst that pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high early but people also kind of just need time to to recover like they almost need to forget their pain they experienced last bare market and kind of be open to investing into crypto I I've also heard the case that that although Bitcoin hit all-time high we

had an insane amount of money printing back in uh 2021 2020 and uh that has caused a lot of inflation so if you actually inflation adjusted look at bitcoin's all-time high it's actually about 80,000 it's like 8,700 or something like that and so um inflation adjusted we actually haven't broken bitcoin's all-time high and I think really what you're looking for overall is just a really clean break so I think once we do hit over 80,000 that'll be kind of like the bat signal where people are ready I think they're ready now I've gotten texts from Friends where they're they've reached out and been like hey I saw Bitcoins going up uh that's pretty crazy do you think it'll last and different things there's the signal there's the signal right there yeah and so I think once we have a clean break over 80k um that'll be a really strong

signal to people like gez I missed out there's obvious VI something going on here you know Trump's talking about a Bitcoin National Reserve or whatever or strategic Reserve um you you know I I think people are going to start to catch up on informationally and that's when they're gonna that's when they're going to look around and say hey you know what else can I snack here can you also explain uh one of the other things that happens when Bitcoin uh hits all-time highs and also other the other Solon and ethereum you can almost put in this bucket too as the other two Majors is there's a lot of businesses and whales and people in the space that all of a sudden are rich and have a lot of money

and what what is what do they do with that and how do they act in that way yeah so I I think this is a lot this is relevant to bitcoin for sure but I think even more impactful is ethereum because ethereum uh as far as defi across every single chain like ethereum's everywhere and a lot of dows treasuries like they're just they're full of e everybody holds everyone holds it so um I'll use that as an example when ethereum goes up in value let's like say it doubles in value that means uh all these treasuries all these um Dows all these wallets holding ethereum the the wealth in that wallet doubles as well and so what'll happen is it's called The Wealth effect where it kind of trickles down and bleeds down into everything else also there's there's a lot of def5 pairs that are paired with eth as well

um it it trickles down uh and it trickles down in a lot of different ways I mean just the the initial wealth created is one way another way is what a lot of people will do is they'll take their eth or they'll take their Bitcoin and they'll leverage up against it they'll go on something like a and they'll they'll say I don't want to sell my Bitcoin I don't want to sell my eth uh but I'll take a loan for like 25% of its value and then go use that to go invest in alt because I don't want to miss out on that and so that's a form of money creation that's more liquidity getting created uh and this is like how it gets out of control right so like once these things get get go into effect why you see this kind of parabolic runup is because a lot of

Leverage really rapidly into the crypto market and it enters via things like this where people are taking out loans against their crypto um they're taking out loans on exchanges uh they're maybe they're overextending their credit card debt they're taking out a second mortgage on their house they're putting in their life savings those aren't necessarily leverage but they're they're like forms of uh maybe instability that that later end up uh causing the entire Market to collapse and the reason this happens the reason people feel confident to do this is because if you have an asset that you genuinely believe can go up only then like it would make sense to like put everything you have in it right if if there if there was an asset like you knew for sure it was like Hey this thing's only going to go up for the rest of time why wouldn't you leverage up to

you know to the Max and put everything you have into it and and what happens with Bitcoin is uh people repeatedly say like hey this thing's going to crash and it doesn't crash it goes higher then they're like it's GNA crash now and then it doesn't crash and goes higher and then they say actually it's GNA crash now and then it goes even higher and they start to believe that this thing just can't die and it's just going to keep going higher for forever and that's why they get this confidence of like wow this is up only I'm throwing everything in parabolic runup but then so it's like you always have to have this like people get over to confident throwing in leverage and that always is going to lead to a collapse because it makes it unhealthy and unstable and then the whole thing kind of falls apart thank

you human psychology for so predictable and repeatable uh so so just to touch on you do believe that we will continue to be in these Cycles you think because one thing that I think a lot of people make the mistake is it is so easy maybe not quite yet we're not in that parabolic like euphoric stage quite yet I think we're we're getting close to that you know the election was sort of the last Catalyst that really the last checkbox that we were all waiting for uh and obviously Trump winning is a win for crypto um regardless of what your own political views are it does is definitely better for the crypto space and we're in a position now where it

feels like it's going to be up only and what that leads is though it leads people say it's up only forever and bitcoin's never going to come down or whatever alt or whatever token you're investing in but these these Cycles are in my mind are never going away we will always have cycles does it mean Bitcoin is going to drop the same that it dropped in previous Cycles probably not like the ETF and all these other factors dampen that but there is I never want an investor to sit there and be like this is my last chance to get in because if you think like that that's when you you make bad calls so I I do think like the fouryear pattern will probably end at some point because at the point that people believe in it is the point it can

no longer exists like people have to always be like I don't know if it's going to happen this time for it to be able to happen because otherwise people will front run it and then it won't happen right so at some point I think the four-year cycle won't exist but um as far as like liquidity Cycles as far as like psychology that stuff will always play out again so if you have Bitcoin going up for an extended period of time that is always going to lead to PE an overconfidence too much leverage in the system which will also always lead to a massive correction and collapse uh like those things are are pretty consistent I I do think crypto is likely to continue going up for the long term I think for a couple different reasons uh one is just the insane amount

of debt and money printing that has to happen uh there's we have in the US we have um what is it$ 36 trillion do worth of debt and over the past 50 years I think it's four years four of the last 50 years has the US been profitable like we've had a surplus in in those years and if you take like the um amount of like profitability we've had it's like 300 billion or something like that and you were to like 10x it and you're like okay instead of just four years 40 years out of the last 50 we were profitable if over the next 50 years 40 of those 50 were profitable at the same level and we did that for for Infinity we could never pay like there is no way to pay off the debt um like we do not make

enough even in those profitable years even if you were to 10 exit to ever like ever pay off the debt and so really the only path forward like that is to inflate away that debt and that is that is going to be money Printing and the fed's in a really weird place and when you have inflation that's going to push assets up that's going to be uh that's going to push Capital into something like Bitcoin that the the FED can't print and so when people say we're going to have a million or $5 million Bitcoin they're not necessarily saying that like it's going to be a million doll or $5 million in today's value what they're saying is a million doll is going to be worth a lot less in the future and and that's why we're goingon to have a million dollar Bitcoin um so I I think

on that hand like crypto just will keep going up in USD terms because we're G have we have to keep printing there's like no other way out out of the debt on on the other hand I think if you look at demographics um they're they're insanely bullish like insanely bullish for crypto and the re that is is it's called the the great wealth transfer and it's like over the next 20 years $79 trillion dollar worth of wealth is going to transfer from the older generation to the younger generation because like older people will eventually pass away uh the younger generation will inherit it by and far the majority of older people do not invest in crypto they just like too complicated they don't want to touch it um they're they're just old school they're in stocks or whatever like they have the vast like the vast

majority of of the wealth and they won't touch crypto uh it's the younger generation the younger generation loves digital assets they love crypto they're like yoloing in meme coins they're they're like investing their life savings into you know Bitcoin ethereum and whatever uh but they don't have very much money like they're actually pretty poor relatively and so when that 778 trillion dollar worth of wealth transferred from the older generation to the younger generation I just don't see why the younger generation is suddenly going to be like okay now I'm going to invest in stocks I have a lot of money I think what they're going to do is GNA be like oh finally I have a lot of money now it's time to go hard on crypto and so I think you're just going to see more and more wealth transfer into crypto and as that wealth transfers into crypto

you're going to see um more and more of the traditional asset industry come into crypto because that's going to be where the money's at yeah I could I I couldn't agree more you just nailed it on that take and I just got to double down if you guys want to go back there's a show we did with Tyler Neville all about the global debt crisis and particularly the US debt and he puts out a great case of why these Cycles are going to continue and basically exactly what you're what you're saying Jesse goes deeper into um that view uh let's talk about what what tokens are you personally excited about right now or any trades that you really like right now and I always ask this you

know not from the P perspective of financial advice but more from the perspective of understanding where you see opportunities and are they short-term medium-term long-term how are you playing them everybody obviously has very different investment uh Psy investment um points of view in terms of their risk tolerance but also in terms of their time frame so if you could put them out in that way that would be great yeah yeah I think first off I'll just say that like obviously now this is investment advice and also um just copying kind of Trades you see online is is always a recipe for disaster even if like I mention a token that's going to do a THX from here I have actually I've actually done that before and people have lost money somehow like during the process and it

really I don't understand it but like if you if you don't do your own research and have your own conviction it is in even if a token is pretty much up only you will find a way to lose money on that trade so just just be aware of that uh as far as like what I have conviction in right now I would say like as a sector um that I think is really underappreciated in crypto is uh crypto gaming I I have like a ton of conviction in the crypto gaming sector I think it's really a perfect product Market fit for crypto just like the idea of like digital Collectibles digital assets uh that you get in these games I I think especially with the rise of AI uh and and like kind of like a coming job loss wave I think you're going to have a lot

more value come into these games than most people uh understand I think most people are kind of locked in this 2017 mind or sorry 2021 mindset for crypto games and they don't really realize the value prompt is uh just digital ownership like taking your fortnite skins and uh you can you own them and you can sell them and they can approve value and you look at nft pfps that reached millions millions of dollars of value um you got to believe that there's going to be if fortnite had did did this today there would be fortnite skins worth you know well over a million dollars uh but they don't unlock that you're basically leasing that fortnite skin from from epic games they can R uh retain ownership uh but unlocking that value for players I think is going to bring a lot of of value and I think

that's going to be huge subse sector of crypto this like almost its own little world in in bubble so um doing doing a couple different plays within that sector but um outside of that uh right now what what are just what are your plays in gaming because the thing I find Difficult about gaming is you gotta you kind of gotta pick the game right and that's that's the hard part is you don't know which game is gonna hit like you know maybe you like Prime and may maybe Prime does really well because parallel and their games do really well but maybe those aren't the games that that hit like that's the tough part about picking a gaming token in my mind so in my mind it's gonna play out like this it picking the winner is gonna be really hard and I don't really know if if I can uh but

let's say like gunzel Off the Grid was like huge right like that that recently took the whole you know World by storm there was all these players all these streamers were streaming it un let imagine they launch I don't have any sort of early exposure to it but imagine they launch and their token goes to like10 billion um what are people going to do people are going to look at that and they're going to say wow that's amazing this has been so successful I wonder what the next guns is going to be and they're going to look for the the beta token so I'm more in I'm more doing narrative plays because I feel like that's easier where it's just so I'm paying attention to like really small tokens today that have really strong sticky narratives that I feel like will spread around um one of them is it's

really tiny highly volatile you probably lose all your money if you get into it it's it's high-risk so but it's called una it's on base and it's uh from yunagi it's it's this team they're all EX Ubisoft developers they worked on like Far Cry uh the division different games like that and so I feel like the narrative is hey these are ex Ubisoft developers they worked on Far Cry The Division that's a really sticky narrative and if you're thinking of something like guns taking off Hits 10 billion well as people work their way down the stack they're going to find that one they're going to be like oh my gosh this this one it's super cheap it's sitting at like you know in the low millions in market cap uh and then that that's going to push it up so for me it's more of a a I'm playing beta

narrative plays like that but that are strong they're not like um there's a lot of vaporware I think games in the crypto space that really don't have any sort of compelling narrative uh so that's that's a and and the team's actually pretty good the team um has been building and doing things and they're actually a pretty good team as far as like development wise so uh that's crypto gaming um I I I think crypto has kind of tooken two different paths so you have like defi open finance in that whole sector this like more of a serious really world changing technology and then you have this other sub sector of crypto that is like complete degenerate gambling mem coins prediction markets betting like that kind of sector and I view them as almost

two different SE two different parts of crypto and I think both are going to flourish and do uh really well um but as far as the gambling sector uh one of my one of my big bets and high conviction plays is this uh project called winner uh it's on arbitrum they're building basically infrastructure to launch uh prediction markets to launch um meme coin launchpads um uh like gambling front ends that kind of whole thing and for me it's like more of um a bet on that sector continuing to thrive people continuing to want to gamble uh you have apps out here and I don't know I don't know if this is valid or not they they claim this roll bit claims they're they're doing like 30 to 50 million do a month in Revenue which is crazy insane

crazy yeah but their token doesn't reflect that they do have the onchain burns to match it but I I go back and forth in that but let's say that's legit like that's actually really crazy and shows that there's a huge amount of value in this space that's untapped uh and so it's kind of a bet maybe in in that direction um and I have a bunch of other plays that are kind of like some narrative based um I I focus on a lot of SS uh some lower cap I do midcaps too um IMX uh different things like that yeah so I won't go through everything but you kind of get the J no no that's great appreciate you highlighting a few for us let's talk about mem coins for a second um mad obviously came in hot at token

2049 with his meme coin super cycle thesis presentation that went viral and meme coins I mean his presentation was accurate meme coins have outperformed in this cycle uh so far they have been you know it's been Bitcoin and mem coins um what do you think happens with mcoins in the rest of this cycle so I mean you're kind of already seeing this play out but my thesis has been that Meme coins um so so the reason I think meme coins took off in the first place was purely salana went up uh because salana went up people looked for beta there was no really really solid alts on uh within salana and the fastest thing the market were memecoins so memec

coins hit the market really quick they were really easy to speculate on Gamble on and they just took the market by storm and because of that people kind of overfocused and overallocated into memec coins thinking like oh my gosh memecoins are like taking over everything defi is actually stupid all these teams building real projects are stupid and uh you know it's all it's all going to be about meme coins and then people started looking for the beta of Sal where they're like meme coins are big salana maybe the next big meme coin is gonna be on base for this and this and they just kind of followed down this Trail and and I think uh people are over kind of estimating the impact of memec coins and really not understanding that like a lot of that was just purely a wealth effect uh from Soul I do think memecoins obviously have

some sort of product Market use case I think there is some sort of culture around meme coins where people do enjoy them and I and I don't think they're going to go away anytime soon um and in fact I will say that during the cycle there's going to be some massive winners in the mcoin space and probably some of the biggest success stories Within uh crypto or we're going to be like of people taking 100 bucks and turning into millions of dollars are probably going to be from mem coins but that is going to be the the like the far minority most people will lose money trading meme coins the 99.999% of meme coins will not do well or succeed um they're basically like lottery tickets like it is it is really just gambling um you could probably make an argument for like Doge and stuff like

that isn't gam isn't gambling there's some like maybe fundamentals there uh that you could tap into just because so large in size for for the vast majority of them it's literally you're buying a lottery ticket and that'll stick around people are going to keep doing that but it's not like mcoins are going to take over Defi and like altcoins aren't going to you know that that the narrative was always that like there's so many meme coins um that liquidity is fractured so much that like alts won't survive and therefore you should just invest in mem coins and I think that's a stupid argument because uh for one if liquidity was is spread around so thin then also meme coins would suffer from that too it's not like they magically would be immune to that but on on top of that you know if there was a million Dex tokens there was like

a million different tokens for all these various dexes the only thing that's really bearish for is dexes and Dex tokens that's not like bearish for crypto as a whole um you maybe you allocate to one or two dexes but then you're going to also allocate to you know um Bitcoin and gaming and dii and uh dpin and those are all different sub sectors and so I think with meme coins it's just it's like it's one thing it's like One bank and people are going to have their like small degenerate meme coin bag that's like fun it's just for play um but it's not like that's going to take over all of crypto and again most people actually lose putting money to meme coins and using it as an investing strategy is just a really really bad idea man I love your uh I love your

adult in the room take uh we need we need more of that my man uh the quote there is yeah Mo most people will lose money on mem coins but the only stories that you'll hear are the people that made 1,000x on Meme coins and I I should probably give context so people don't think I'm coping um I I've probably made more money than most people on on Meme coins I had uh a single play where I stuck in like three grand and on paper in my wallet it turned into like $3 million uh but but there wasn't liquidity to match that so I could probably at the height I probably could have sold for like 100k liquidity so it's like not not quite the same thing but still like which is also the point of meme coins right like that's what happens to to everybody right not yeah

to be able to exit at that type of gain is nearly impossible exactly exactly so um I've I've made money on on Meme coins I'm not coping I'm just telling people like facts like you are way better off investing like think of the barrier to entry to launching a meme coin it takes two like your grma could do it in two seconds it's as easy as posting on social media the barrier to entry to launching a d a defi project is actually really hard like you have you have to do hard work and there's like actual quality checks there and so it's it's fundamentally going to be more valuable um in the long run than something like a meme coin so you're just you are better off U being with most of your bag being really careful investing in like actually good project

with with some solid fundamentals then you are just yoloing your life savings into meme coins which will likely cause you to lose everything likely cause you to lose everything don't forget that folks there you go stay safe out there Jesse thank you so much for joining us today absolute pleasure to have you on the show everybody listening in if you don't follow Jesse on Twitter or check out his YouTube videos make sure you do we're going to throw a link in the show notes to his Twitter and his YouTube he makes awesome videos just like we do keeping you guys informed and as you can tell in a very responsible way he's not going to show you guys a bunch of tokens to tell you invest and he's going to give you the cold heart facts that you need to hear which we need more of in this H

somewhat wild wild west of crypto Jesse thanks again for joining us today thanks for having me on awesome everybody listening in have a wicked awesome day we'll see you tomorrow as always if you liked today's episode please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one there's also a link in the description to our free five minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh and if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game we're going to also leave a link for milk Road Pro you get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying this is your number one resource to help you invest success sucessfully in crypto one final note

this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose thanks so much for listening in my friends have a wicked awesome day