Alt Season Is Already Here

Transcript

But all the action is really underneath the surface with a bunch of alts running. >> Bitcoin's been flat. Alts have flown. Bitcoin leads and then it cools off for a bit and then altcoins kind of take pull position and [music] and move higher. I think most people were sidelined for this. >> So I do think it's an alt pickers environment as it already has been. >> Maybe you're starting to think about taking profits on some things that have run up a ton. [music] Drop drop some tickers for the the alt pickers market. Some ones that you think have good fundamentals that haven't run yet. Okay, okay, okay. Another week, another highs.

Crazy time to be recording once again. Equities a little bit off. Had a little bit of a cool down and all the hype, pun intended, has been around crypto lately. I think last time we were chatting, we're kind of in the early stages of what we thought was potentially a crypto bull market. I mean, Bitcoin's been roughly flat, I think, since the last time we recorded, if I recall correctly. You're seeing some definite indications that this thing, the behemoth in the room, I think it's got some bullish catalyst behind it from a technical perspective, just from a currency debasement narrative perspective, but all the action is really underneath the surface with a bunch of alts running.

Let's start off per usual. I want to kind of go around the horn and just get everyone's kind of take on the state of the market right now. How we're feeling, what are we looking at, what's catching our eyes. Jason, I'll start with you. >> Yeah, I mean market has been fantastic since last time we recorded. um like all of the things that you that we said that like you'd want to see on Bitcoin for it to be like a sustained, you know, rally or or pump rather than something that just kind of barts or fades back down has kind of played out, right? Like most of the move has been uh sailor agnostic. Obviously, he did top tick a week ago at like I don't know 81 or something, but like market, you

know, barely reacted to that. maybe sold off for a day or two, but we've seen consistent spot ETF flows. We haven't really seen like OI and, you know, leverage build up uh too too much. We've had a few little, you know, leverage wicks on on alts and things. Um, and things are starting to get a little bit more heated up, but like all of the all the things that we wanted to see on the back of the original Treasury announcement which kind of set everything in motion with Bitcoin and then crypto. Um, it's kind of like played out perfectly and Bitcoin's been flat. Alts have flown which is again something else you would want to see, right? Bitcoin leads and then it cools off for a bit and then altcoins kind of take uh take pole position and and move

higher. All of the things that you're seeing on chain with Robin Hood and and Salana with Stockf fun, which I'm sure we'll get into later, um are all good signs of like initial risk appetite returning. You're not seeing things immediately, you know, nuke to zero after reaching, you know, 5 10 20 $30 million market caps. You're starting to see things run a bit more. So like everything is kind of pointing in the right direction. Crypto volume trading volumes have you know skyrocketed again with the volatility uh on Hyperlid. Now crypto volumes are back above uh HIP 3 volumes and doing most of most of the heavy lifting there. Uh, so like everything I've wanted to see over the

last couple weeks has kind of played out and I'm just kind of trying not to over complicate it and just kind of keep it simple and hold on to all of the leverage and trades I put on back then and just let them play out. I don't I don't think it's uh I don't think there's too much to do if you you know kind of realized that that pivot with the Treasury announcement and then just stacked on a bunch of risk. I don't really think there's much to do. Maybe you're starting to think about taking profits on some things that have run up a ton, but other than that, like I'm in a good mood.

>> Yeah, it's kind of like the majors that have been doing well are continuing to do well. Like Zcash is kind of ridiculous at this point. It's at 1300 right now. Um, hype hit, did hype hit 100? No, it hit like 90 right >> soon. >> Lighter's at like five. Uh, Venice had an insane day yesterday. So, you're seeing a lot of the coins that like have been doing well, continue to do well, and then onchain has gone insane, both Robin Hood and then Salana more recently. Uh, but you're still not seeing like Bitcoin E Soul, right? Um, so you still have this market where it's like the good majors that were the good majors are continuing to be the good

majors and then onchain is going crazy. And those are like the two kind of sides of the barbell right now. Um, so [clears throat] yeah, I mean, FOMO has been like a rocket catalyst for trading. Um, I think I saw something where FOMO did like half a billion dollars in one day recently, which is more than like all the trading terminals combined were doing like a month or two ago. Um, and so they have just like completely overtaken um, trading. Uh, it's been kind of insane to see. So, yeah. And then the macro looks like I'm

not a macro guy, right? But looks pretty good, right, Jason? And, uh, you know, if the debasement stuff is going to continue to be the story for this cycle, um, then yeah, like you have this mix of debasement trades. the big money makers like uh hype lit and pump has done well too and then you have like the onchain just like pure speculative stuff doing well too right those are like the three main buckets right now >> I'm just holding on to the same stuff that have been holding the whole the whole cycle it's interesting because crypto is now like a minority of my overall sort of liquid stuff um as you

guys know I did a lot of stock things this year and my stocks performed pretty Well, but my crypto is outperforming by by a lot. Uh even though it's like a minority of my of my holdings. So, yeah, just goes to show I just have way more alpha, I think, in in crypto than than I do in stons. Um even if I'm sort of more secularly bullish on on on stuff outside of crypto. But yeah, just holding on to the Zcash ENA hype lighter um sort of bags that we that we all spoke about whenever it was a few months ago and the things we were holding. It it's it's a weird one because it was kind of obvious, right? It was like it was a

weird cycle where what to hold was really obvious and I think everyone who was like following crypto was kind of uh and anyone who was still long, which I think was not many people was holding those those things. But I do think from speaking to people um I'm curious what you guys think. I think most people were sidelined for this and are just like and I think most of this money is probably like people who were sidelined but but had crypto at some point just like buying back in versus new money. And that's kind of like my my main I guess concern is that I still don't see like a new nar I just don't think memes uh with like a better UI is going to be like

enough of a new narrative to bring to bring a bunch of like outside cash and excitement into this with AI doing what it's doing right now. And I get to the Treasury announcement is is is a big deal. But I think yeah, it's like gold hasn't moved that although I mean hasn't moved that much in in in sort of percentage terms but obviously has moved a few bitcoins in in market cap at this point. But I don't know I I I don't see like a fundamental reason that you'll get new flows into crypto over like the other asset classes which seem much more exciting right now still.

>> So I think it's just like Yeah. >> Yeah. Most re most of the onchain retail flow is like new money. Like FOMO is onboarding an insane amount of people that have like never been on CT or even heard about CT. So that's where a lot of a lot of onchain capital is coming from. There's apparently this like I was talking to No, I wasn't talking to you. I saw Tulip Guy do this tweet. He works with counterart party which is thread guy's thing and they said how like there's this whole other subculture of like trenchers that nobody on CT really like knows about but it's like a massive thing with like younger de demographic.

Um and you're kind of seeing that with FOMO as for money entering like overall the new space. Yeah, probably haven't seen that yet. I would agree that like the concentration in like Zcash hype. Um I just feel like you need to see Bitcoin Ethan Soul really break out to then make the conclusion that there's a lot of new money coming in. Um otherwise it it is probably mostly a rotation. Like I don't know how much like capital that wasn't in crypto is like yeah I want to own Zcash as a debasement privacy trade, right? Um, I would be surprised if it was like a big number, but um, yeah, I would also say with Zcash, I like yes, it was obvious maybe to like

some of us, but like Zcash has been a pretty hated trade this year and that's allowed it to do very well. There's like the whole this is like Naval in the cabal and then there was the bug thing that happened which got a lot of people out. Um, and so yeah, I don't know where it goes from here. It It's been pretty insane. Um, but it is kind of just like sucking up. I think there's a lot of appetite to get back into the market, right? And what are you going to buy? You're going to buy something that maybe is like this like speculative store value that's done really well and like has a lot of theoretical upside because of the nature of what it is, right?

>> Yeah. Yeah, I don't I don't think you necessarily need a lot of money moving into it for this to stuff to do well. So like I don't really view this whole thing as a binary where you need the capital flow in for it to make sense for you to be in the market. I think BTC probably goes to the 80s or 90 probably 90s. I I don't really see there being a massive reason for it to break out unless we continue to get some form of of stimulus or monetary easing. I think with just the current setup, you could still see it continue to run just based on momentum positioning, sailor not buying, um all these reasons for people to kind of continue to to to get involved in the market. Um and

and in that scenario, I think alts can do very well. Um so I still think it makes sense to be long specific some alts. I I do think you'll end up seeing some rotations as you know certain ones kind of run to the to the higher end of their multiples and and you look for uh different opportunities where fundamentally valuable coins that haven't really run as much I think get very interesting. So um I do think it's an alt pickers environment as it already has been. And um it's definitely fairly PVP. you kind of have this bifurcation of of trenchers with 30 secondond hold times versus people in in larger tokens that are I think more so the existing players in the space and and some funds

I think um just asking around yes there aren't nearly as many liquid funds as there used to be but there still are quite a few that most people aren't really aware of that are trading pretty decent size and so I think those are the ones that are kind of moving the market and and the ones you basically want to to some of these trades that you can actually size into. >> What are those? What are those? >> What are those? What funds? >> Drop drop some tickers for the the alt pickers market. Like some ones that you think have good fundamentals that haven't run yet.

>> I think Arrows is is a good one for September and and and beyond if they can continue to to rack up TVL. I think it's a it's a pretty strong setup. it ran up on laptop nonsense, but I don't really think that's going to be what drives it higher. I think you get move to ETH, you probably get a move to Robin Hood. And then you also have uh a change in emissions that if all else held constant, you have positive flows into the the name without any new money coming in just based on kind of historical trends. So, it shifts from being supply dominant to to to demand dominant. Um, and so if you sprinkle in additional TVL and and fees on top and

and in particular adding new business lines that don't have an emission offsetting component. So I I do think you can see a a nice unique catch-up trade for those who missed it. >> Yeah, I was one of my questions was if you're going to take profit or you're going to rotate, where would you rotate to? And I know we were talking yesterday about arrow as Jan you just mentioned arrow versus uni. I think that's a good debate. I think what would be helpful too for people because there's been so much that's gone on in the tokenized stock world, right, or market over the last literally one or two weeks. It'd be helpful to kind of level set what the differences are and like where this activity is happening and therefore who

are the biggest like downstream beneficiaries of it, right? And maybe set this is this is a good one for you because you can help us like level set. You've got like Robin Hood chain. Then you've got stons on Salana which is now becoming especially over the last couple days like more and more part of the meta. You've got Coinbase base stock tokens. Like just give us kind of a level set of what what it is we're even looking at right now and where this activity is flowing. >> So onchain stock started doing really well a few months ago with uh I would say Backpack on Salana. Um, and you started to get I have this tweet from a few months ago and it's like you could swap 100k on chain and buy like Micron SanDisk

um with very little slippage like 10 bits or something. It was pretty crazy. Uh, but then Robin Hood took this to a whole another level and like in great crypto fashion the dgens um came up with something very novel with uh pairing meme coins with stocks, right? Um, and so this is what has been driving the whole Robin Hood chain explosion. Um, the top the top coin on Robin Hood, the top memecoin is uh this one called AI, artificial enu, and it's paired with Nvidia. Okay. And so basically, you know, when Nvidia goes up, that should naturally pull Artificial Enu up and then, you know, vice versa. Um, and so this is what has been going on in Robin Hood chain. Then the first the first

weekend that this exploded, none of the market makers had like prepared for the weekend. And so the stock prices on Robin Hood chain got so out of whack because there was no other side to like so many people were buying these meme coins that the stocks were tra like like AMC was trading like $25 on Robin Hood chain versus like $2 on the stock market, right? And so like who made who who's made a lot of money here? it's early buyers of this and then the market makers like Citadel that are coming in on Monday morning and like the authorized participants, right, who are slamming that back down um to the appropriate price, right? And so this is what has been going on with Robin Hood. Um you saw the AMCCCO get

really upset about this um because they see like market manipulation and stuff. And then um on Salana, yeah, you have stons, which first disclosure, I own stons and I'm like pretty exposed to that ecosystem. Um the difference that stons did is that they take um like a 3% fee on every transfer of the token and then pay it out as yield. So like if you hold a token paired with a memecoin paired with a stock and then you hold the memecoin, you're getting dividends in the stock.

uh every hour or something, right? Um and so you and then ston is is burning like a lot of the supply with that. Um and yeah, now the difference with Robin Hood in the Salana is that on Robin Hood, all the main pairs are once paired with stocks. And then on uh Salana, even though this is Stockfi, all the biggest market cap ones are actually once paired with cryptonative coins. Um, so you hold a memecoin and you get paid like um like Bitcoin or like [clears throat] anything else, right? Those are the ones that are doing the best. Um, and so that's like where they the two diverge.

I think what's interesting with the difference here too is like all the stuff on Robin Hood you can la you can list those on centralized exchanges no problem and it doesn't really have um any real effect to the underlying Robin Hood market. But with the ston one, um, since like this pays yield out to people who hold the coin and there's like a 3% transfer fee on everything, like once you get exchange listings, that kind of like passes that fee, right? Um, and then per too. Per also passes the fee. So like if you get pers on some of these, is that is that how people are going to take profit, right? Is like maybe shorting the per. Um, I don't know. So there's like some weird dynamics here where when these um get

listed on centralized exchanges, it's like will the will the yield all get go to the centralized exchange and then the centralized exchange will like distribute out how it goes, but then it's like all the all the trading on the exchange doesn't generate any activity for ston or for like the tokens themselves. So, um, yeah, there's like a bit of a m mismatch there, which I'm not sure I don't think these guys really planned for this when they made this cuz it kind of just exploded out of nowhere, right? But it's something that they're going to have to think about uh whether or not this will be like a flash in the pan or something more, right? And then obviously Pump Fine has been kind of on the sidelines for both of these metas.

Um, you know, FOMO first with the social trading has totally taken over as the main social trading app. Uh, and then like Pawns, Launchpad on Robin Hood, and then on Salona, Stokon has been doing well. So, it'll be interesting to see what obviously Pump is going to do something here and they have like a ton of money to like go after um this market. So, yeah, we'll see. I think some people are, you know, one of the the the top the top stock one on ston if you go to tokens there uh in the tab it'll list them all by market cap.

Um that one CTO uh number 10 actually he used to be like number two but the the um the CEO of this company Vita Global is actually like super into this coin and he's trying to like get to go higher. Um, so you have these dynamics now where things that happen on chain are trying to affect like the traditional finance markets, right? Um, so there's definitely some weird like legal things and regulatory things. I think regulators do not regulators are kind of okay with like crypto markets being on their own as long as they're not touching stuff. But if they start actually affecting like stock prices,

that's when um things are gonna, you know, get better. So, so yeah, like this is all like memecoin stuff right now. But if you want to look at like the positive side effect of this is that lots more like stocks are coming on chain now. And you can kind of just see how I really think like that's this is going to be the big meta of this cycle is like people building stuff around onchain stocks, right? which won't look like too different from maybe things we've seen in the past, but um just like a different kind of asset that you're building liquidity around and assets that have real fundamental value, right?

Like everything in crypto has been so self-reerential. Um and now we're going to build basically all these apps and yeah, there's going to be a lot of games and a lot of gambling type games and stuff, but it's all most of it's going to be built around stocks, right? So, that's kind of like the main meta right now of what's going on. Um, and yeah, I have no idea how long this particular meta is going to last. It's it's really hard to tell. Um, especially just like how quickly it's got crazy, but I think the stocks onchain thing regardless will just be a big thing over the next year or two. Yeah, it is a

little unsettling that we went straight to M forks and all that equivalent stuff. Um, but [clears throat] >> yeah, although that fork I don't think has been doing >> No, no, the thing is like >> actually bought some at like the top >> just in case it became the next own >> just in case. Yeah, of course. I was like, >> um, but you I mean we mentioned this before, but you have the issue of just survivorship bias making the longevity of these games much shorter without a big wave of fresh capital coming in. and and and then also you know enough you also don't need to have been around previously to be informed on CT as to why these things didn't work and

and and especially now with AI you can just like plug it in why did it fail >> you think you needed to be informed on CT to know that why oh M wasn't going to work I feel like everyone knew it was a ponzi back then >> well not the length of it the like the the idea of the the length of it not I mean >> like a massive massive massive size and and I don't think that's ever going to happen because people have seen >> where and when it unwinds and what to look for and and so the you get the youth in Asia roller coaster on these and >> and so yeah, I just don't think we can get to like big size like you're saying with with without a new thing that people haven't seen that can like really get the imagination going. Like I I just

don't see how this kind of stuff >> maybe though, but like pawns went to basically a billion in like a week. Yeah, but that what was the liquidity on puns? It's like the the the pool is like I'm not >> it's it's still not great. >> Yeah, >> I think there's like there's like 8 mil in the liquidity pool now for for >> That's the one thing with these apps is like UPNL the UPNL the UPNL is like the marketing of these apps, right? But >> for sure >> it's it's obviously >> Yeah. When you put those two side by >> side all the liquidity Yeah. That's pretty low. If that's all the liquidity >> Yeah. It's uh >> Yeah.

>> Yeah. >> But now but now it's trading on uh on other venues. Yeah. It's got volume otherwise. So it's not this isn't an appropriate >> view of the door. Um >> not anymore. >> But yeah, the the the whole UPNL relative to PNL side by side table is is a fun one to look at for for the FOMO stuff. It's just >> the ratio is 10%. Some of these FOMO guys literally bought at like like that crayon eater guy at like less than like 100k market cap and literally has not sold anything and it's like 10 mil. It's like >> you got to assume they have sidewalls.

>> Maybe >> and the last thing they sell is the public one that like it's just >> you got to assume that. >> Yeah. >> I don't know how it's not the assumption, right? Like what? Like how long have we all been in this industry that we like, oh yeah, this dude's sitting on 60 mil P&L and not like what? Like >> like come on. Like what are we talking? >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean granted I don't I think the bonk guy I'm not sure. >> Bonk guy did Yeah, he did kind of round trip his eight figure per position that he held for what a year. >> Yeah.

>> On Bonk. So like you know >> he's number one on FOMO now. >> Maybe maybe he is. I would assume he had other bags, too. >> I think I think I think the round trip is real, but I don't think that P&L was ever that UPNL was ever truly realizable >> and you it's an advertisement to realize it elsewhere. And I I I'm not saying he's a bad actor. I just think >> no approach to doing this. >> It's why it's kind of like I said this on like our market matters. Um, yeah, like I was I was going to say like when I went through the top 20 wallets, it was like like the realized P&L versus unrealized was such a such a small uh ratio, but um and then when you look at what the actual liquidity, it's even smaller. Um, but like this is what I was

talking about. >> There's no way this is right. >> This chart, there's no way that the top realized P&L is 253K. >> No, that's probably about right, dude. Go look. Go like go look at the top 20 wallets on FOMO and look at all of the cash >> trades though >> cuz you just do it you just do it offchain basically you just you can buy this stuff in a different wallet like you don't have to buy it through FOMO. >> Yeah, but a lot of people on FOMO aren't ne aren't doing it the way that some of these guy like that Crayon eater guy I don't even think has a Twitter account.

I think he just like made the account and it just like went up a lot. I don't know. >> Again, I don't know. I think it's naive to think that you're not getting extracted here in multiple ways that we've seen be done in the P. Like what I view this like this is the exact same thing that we're we saw happen with Solana except it's a lot more easy to do now. Like we saw everything start with pump. We saw all these tools come up. We saw people start trading with Axiom Photon. We saw bundle. We saw all of it. We saw sidewalls. Like why wouldn't it happen here? Like that's what the incentive is all 100%.

>> Oh, it's definitely happening. It's definitely happening. >> Also, that P&L number is net and I haven't looked at whether or not those guys have losses, too. So, >> like >> So, like, yeah, it's just like just know the game that's being played is all I'm saying. Like, it's fine. It's going to be played regardless, but just like don't go on and assume that these guys are like next generation god tier traders. Like, there's a lot of other stuff going on behind the scenes. They're not all sitting on 50 mil unrealized P&Ls. Like just realize that the best like it it it's effectively like a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? You have 100,000 people following you on social media. You go and you buy a 100k market cap coin with like

$30,000 of liquidity, 40, like what do you think is going to happen? It's not like like we can be honest about it, right? It's like it's just like clearly just like be like be aware of the games that are being played. It's not like everybody here on these leaderboards is somehow the next, you know, unknown market wizards trader like just Yeah, that's my take. I think that the the app is pretty the app is honestly kind of fun and it's like a nice UX and stuff, but yeah, if you're going on there and just following if you're if your strategy is just like following a bunch of the richest people and just directly copying what they're doing, I don't know. That doesn't seem like

>> the thing is it worked in the beginning, right? But now it's gotten so big that like >> Yeah. And also just because somebody like you got to realize too that people especially the people that are sitting on positions up like 10,000x they are just dumb apes still even though they have a lot of money like it doesn't mean that they have alpha right like a lot of times they're just kind of throwing money into whatever. >> Yeah. If a casino had a leaderboard there would also be a crayon eater. Uh I think the odds here are worse than a dumb worse than a casino.

>> Dumb crayon eater. Yeah. >> Yeah. See, see that top comment there is Joe's has sold more than seven figures of ponds. So like how is >> like I do think that the data on realized P&L is wrong. Like I have seen a lot of people complain about the P&L not being correct. >> So what's the >> So like there's something going on with their data. Obviously, it's still skewed towards UPNL for sure, but I don't think that, you know, there's there's people sitting with millions of profit and the top realized is like 200k. That doesn't I just don't believe that is correct.

>> If only FOMO made it easier to see it, right? >> They do this thing where you can see how much you fumbled, which is a pretty terrible >> feature to make you FOMO some more. There's like people who click on ponds that they sold at like a mil market cap and it's like you fumbled three >> the peanut thing. >> But um yeah, I mean social crypto is definitely that's the other like main meta of this cycle. Um it's kind of hitting escape velocity I feel like. And like pump tried it with the streaming thing. I feel like streaming could work again for something at some point. Maybe just done in a different way. Um, but I don't know, man. All the kids like like this if if we were all in high

school or something like 100% you and all your friends would be trading on FOMO. You'd have a clan like 100%. >> I mean, probably, but like I don't know. >> There's no doubt about >> I didn't really care much about this stuff in high school. I just gota imagine most people are getting cleaned out like I mean you show up with like you know your week's worth of lunch money or whatever. >> Yeah. I mean don't get me wrong the app is more fun when you're up. So >> as are most things. Yeah. >> Proper insight >> when you're making money.

>> But uh yeah I don't know. We we'll see how this all shakes out. I think the market overall, I think a lot of people were scared about that Hunter Biden memecoin and like it was a total non-event. Um, and so yeah, we'll see. It definitely feels like Robin Hood is really crushing the EVM eco right now. Um, and I think the one thing is that all the Robin Hood stocks on chain, they don't give you ownership rights in the stocks. So, a lot of these games that people are playing with like the boards meme, I don't know if you guys have seen this, but like basically getting the memecoin

to own so much of the stock on chain that like they actually get a board seat. Um, [snorts] which obviously you with the with the way the Robin Hood stocks are structured today, they're not like the actual stock, right? It's kind of like a debt security from Robin Hood that's issued. Um, but I mean, if you did this with like the backpack model or like other potential models, I guess you could like I don't know, maybe do this. But I also think if they if that actually happened, as I said to the earlier point, I think regulators would come down really hard. I think your best bet is to try and force squeezes on some of these rather than board seats.

>> Is there anything on Robin Hood chain? Because we've talked about like FOMO potentially as like a source of like new capital flows, right? And I think that's that's a viable argument. Like is there anything on Robin Hood chain that you've seen that truly struck you as novel and something you could see as sustainable? >> Yes. There was this thing that ended up being a rug. Okay. crumbs. >> But but it was Yes, crumbs. But apparently it's copied after this other protocol receipt, but it's a really cool idea. It's like wherever you go and buy like you go buy stuff at Starbucks, you're you're getting cash back. Robin Hood, I mean a Starbucks stock on chain.

You buy something from Apple, you're getting Apple stock on chain. Um so you're kind of just like instead of having like cash back on your credit card, you're just getting cash back. You're kind of like accumulating all these different stocks at the companies you you buy stuff at. I think that's cool. Like I I'd way rather, you know, I get a few matchas every week from Starbucks. I'd ra way rather get some Starbucks stock than to get the points thing that they have, you know? So, I think you'll see more and more stuff with like once you get more and more stocks on chain, like people will keep kind of building these kind of things.

Like there'll be a big casino aspect, sure, but like you will get some of these things like that's a genuine like passive wealth creation application, right? like you're just doing your normal spending and you're kind of getting ownership in these companies and it's small dollars each time, but over a long with a receipt like what >> where does the funding come from to go and like buy the underlying to then give out or distribute to >> Yeah. the receipts and >> spending. Sure. like maybe they partner with like a credit card or something and then they use like the cash back that the credit card directs to them to like then buy the stock or I'm not entirely

sure of the actual underlying. [laughter] >> Yeah, >> we we sell our own Yeah, we sell our own token to go and then buy the underlying to then distribute to people who upload receipts. Yeah, but it's like I don't know. How does like a normal credit card cash back? >> Well, they they through subscription, through point of sale fees, through um >> Yeah. >> All that crap. Yeah. >> So maybe something in that respect, but I'm sure you'll see more of that. >> Another neo bank or >> Yeah. I don't know if it's that's considered a neo bank. I'm sure all the neo banks are going to do this though.

Uh for me I mean there a couple things kind of like what setters but like largely no is my answer to that question. >> Uh >> what was the original question again? >> It was is there anything actually new innovative happening. >> Yeah >> right now there's like you know a couple things but I think the answer for me is by and large no. I think everything we're seeing is just like a dress up of something we've already done, right? Like, you know, the pairing memes with majors or stocks is just, you know, one step past what we've already done, right? It's it's all the same [ __ ] Like pawns has done well, but like when you look at it's it's

the exact same thing is like pump, right? It might have better tokconomics. might have better um you know structure in terms of VC unlocks all that good stuff. it might have a better percentage of revenues going to buybacks, right? But the end of the day, it's the exact it's like the exact same thing, right? And like um so in terms of like getting excited in of like, you know, sustainability, like I look at something like ponds and I think it'll probably look ex like the the revenue chart on pawns will probably look exactly like the revenue chart on pump over its lifetime, right? It has a big period where it does really well and then that type of activity cools off like we always see and then the revenues

contract a ton and then everybody starts asking the questions you know around oh is this revenue like you know sustainable sticky blah blah blah blah blah. Um I yeah it's just like I don't and like you know these like stock things like it's kind of cool I guess but like yeah it's just largely no for me um right now I think there's there will be some things uh but my opinion on everything that's going on is there's a lot of opportunity obviously to be had on chain over the last couple weeks and probably for a little while longer. Um, but I think most people will

probably end up burning more money, chasing random [ __ ] on chain, trying to play a catchup or trying to buy one of these new launches at 200k market cap because their favorite influencer buys it or something like that. Whereas, you know, when you fast forward 6 months, I think they'll probably most people who chase and and and do a lot of things on chain without like a clear thesis and and like focus on it will probably end up in a much worse position 6 months from now than if they had just held a core bag of things that have done well and are continuing to do well. Um, it's something it's it's a trap I've fallen into in the past many times. Uh, and I'd always look back and I'd just be like,

damn, if I had just held the things that I was like super highly convicted in for the entirety of this of of this cycle, uh, I would have just done even I would have just done that. >> I think like a big >> I was going to say you want to go. >> Yeah. The I think the positive side of all this is though is that, you know, and it goes back to why having multiple chains was a one of the reasons why multiple chains was a good idea is that you have more shots on net. And I think right now these shots on net are attempting to do what crypto has attempted to do before and not done successfully. These kind of consumer social apps, right, as we mentioned earlier. And it's kind of the ideal demographic to do it where you you get

to bridge stocks in as well. So it becomes more attractive for those that aren't purely in crypto ideally and and you kind of widen top of funnel to get more users in. and you experiment and you try various apps and and you know apps will learn from previous ones and iterate on them. you create competition. Uh, and I think all of that should hopefully breed innovation and and leads to, you know, the next major app. And so, yes, you, you know, Pump is a winner and there's obviously been a bunch that have failed alongside, but you do have these periodic winners that that bring in users and and are valuable to the space. And so, um, I do think it it it's a it's a good setup for hopefully a, you know, what

can be a very viral social app uh, come out of it. And, you know, FOMO is is certainly doing really well. Um, questions around the sustainability of it. I think that that that's generally the concern with I think crypto social apps is there's always like a very high monetary component to it which is both a feature and a bug and the bug being that you potentially churn through your audience quite a bit and and and you you kind of you know create incentives for bad actors and and just general questions around like we were having earlier you know how much of this is real what's actually happening behind the scenes gains are are gains being realized elsewhere. Um, and to some

degree, I think it's going to be impossible to escape that because of the ability to spin up wallets and and do all these things. But if you can kind of continue improving the apps themselves, I think it is helpful to bring in users and and ideally kind of trickles into other pockets of the space and and makes other products more viable with with the additional users. >> Yeah, I think to I agree with all that. Um, and like you're not going to get people building stuff on chain when it's like the February to May type market we had, right? Um, so now is the time when people might be like, "Oh, maybe I'll build a crypto app who half a year ago were like, I'm not going to do that." I think back on Jason's point about like

one of the most dangerous things you can definitely do now is if you've done like well maybe you've held like Zcash hype um Venice like maybe you've just like crushed it on the majors and then you see all this stuff kind of going wild on chain and you start to get like greedy or you feel like you're missing out on even more, right? Like one of the things in a bull market is like seeing people make money even faster than you is something that you can fall into that trap of like trying to chase and then you know I always feel like the the flow needs to be you buy the speculative stuff cheap um and then you cycle it into good long-term stuff. Um and if you fall into the trap of going the other way of like you're up so much on your main core

positions that you're like, "Oh, I can spend a little here, spend a little here." And then you start just like, you know, keep beating into it and eating into it and then the market entire market nukes and then like your main bags are down 50% from the highs, but then you also got rid of like a quarter of them because you were doing this other stuff, right? It's like that's the thing that um something I'm definitely correcting like this cycle um of like the flow is like mostly one way. I think it's always kind of fun to when stuff is really cheap and you you think it could like become something to like kind of take some shots on those like

like crypto does have when when it comes to a bull market you do get these opportunities where it's like things genuinely do go 100x um and like throwing little darts into like different onchain things and then seeing what happens um is kind of the way I've always like [clears throat] kind of played it. But >> what are your darts? What are your biggest darts? The stons thing and >> just like stons eco. Yeah.

>> Okay. >> And honestly, it's like one of the reasons why I was early there is because um I was like too lazy to use Robin Hood and I was like hopefully something on Salana comes back. So, I just kept paying attention to Salana when everybody want to pay attention to Robin Hood. So, yeah, we'll see. I'm not sure with I don't want to shield like spons because like um I like really don't know where this thing's going to go. It's like super speculative and like super reflexive and like the yield and everything is a great meme. Um but it also requires a lot of trading and a lot of trading fees, right? And so it's uh it incentivizes holding in that sense in that you don't want to be trading in and out spot because you're just getting

taxed 3% every time. But um it also like requires constant trading because that's what pays the yield, right? Um so we'll see if there's like other things they they do to the model too. Um but for now they'll just like the model it's working and like people a lot of people are talking about it now. So, like we'll see. And then, yeah, obviously Pump, whatever Pump does here will be pretty big. Um, cuz Salon has always been the the place where like, you know, Pump is home and Pump is dominated. So, they have the money to like vamp completely, right?

Do you put any merit behind the thesis or idea that this entire tokenization wave and RWA wave which we're starting to see obviously like really start to pick up that that will actually drive value and even any outperformance in the large majors again like your L1 like your there's been a resurgence in let's say like ETH optimism for the first time I've seen at least in a couple years. And I I'm curious how you guys think about that. Like has that even crossed your minds? Is that something you're interested in or is that trade or that investment?

>> I I have thought like if this really is a debasement cycle, ETH might actually be do okay. Um but I like I can't get myself to buy it. So like I'm you know what do I do with my money versus what do I kind of think could happen, right? I still don't want to put money into ETH. Um, but I could see that scenario where, you know, if Robin Hood chain really does like keep crushing it and doing well, even though it pays no money to Ethereum, um, it could just kind of like get people excited about like ETH being money and everything. But, um, I'm not personally making any like big on Ethan.

To be honest, I hold the least amount of majors that I've ever held. like it's just I don't know they they it doesn't seem like they could have good upside and the downside is not like too different from other stuff. Um >> yes yes and no. I mean I I hear you. I'm I'm similar position. The risk is always like you think that the downside isn't isn't as bad but then you wake up and the alts are down 50%. So um >> Sure. I mean the onchain stuff can go down 95 in like a day. Yeah, but even like the the prominent alts that have done well >> like can easily just nuke 50 >> in a week. Um, but I I I I hear you. I'm like I'm bullish here. So, for me, it's one of those where if ETH does well, I

think some of the other assets I'm in can capture that beta to a better degree. And this is the I think a classic argument, but the the the the way it falls apart is always on the downside. So, it's it's kind of you're making two bets and and I I'm generally constructive on the market here. I think, you know, BTC probably chops around a bit, which is honestly pretty helpful. We've seen as long as BTC doesn't really like fall off a cliff, alts are are looking to run because we're just broadly risk. So, in this environment, BTC chop is actually pretty helpful for for the market. Um, and then you kind of have this, you know, situation where the two take turns

where BTC runs then also. So, um, yeah, I I think it just makes sense to kind of sit in in higher quality alts right now. >> Yeah, I think BTC been sitting where it is. And there's, as mentioned at the onset, there's a bunch of indicators both on chain, but also just from a technical perspective and not to say every cycle is the same. But there's some just very very basic tragedies you can run on momentum where all roads point to the bottom one being already in and behind us and two the next while the next month or two could be choppy. The outlook for the next six to really 12 months is pretty much always positive for BTC when it sits at these types of

levels. Again, anything can happen. But yeah, I agree with that point where you don't necessarily need BTC to run to 120 for everything else to do well on the L1 like ETH narrative. One thing that I've continued to think through is like all the things that everybody thinks would be beneficial for ETH. Like I look at hype, right? And lighter is another example where like the RWA tokenization mania is only more bullish for something like hype than it is for ETH. And so when you talk think about like that relative value of like I'd rather be positioned there because that's just going to be a higher beta returner on the same underlying thesis.

>> Do you think hype has a lot of upside from here? Yes. >> Like uh >> Okay. >> How much? >> Cuz it's >> uh as a question. I think it'll be a couple hundred dollar a token uh over the next couple years. >> Okay. Interesting. because it's it's trading at like it's the the even on the circ market cap, right? The P is like higher than Robin Hood and all all this kind of thing at least last last I checked at 86. Um yeah, >> I think there's reflexivity to the to the um USDC fees being paid there and the durability of those revenues, the buyback that comes from it and it brings more money on chain.

So those T-Ws I think begin at the start of October. >> Yeah. First week. So they'll do 30 days. >> Yeah. >> 30 days worth in the first seven days. >> Yeah. You have that. I think HIPP 4 markets will get bigger. Like they won't get smaller obviously. HIP 3 will continue to get bigger. Trading volumes in crypto I would imagine just you know it's pretty cyclical business but over time those are up generally speaking. Um I think there's uh this like obviously when you look at hyperlquid today it's like you know the business is valued 100% around hyper core and hyper EVM is kind of just like

there not doing anything. There's a world in which that, you know, changes pretty drastically if Kinetic does well with their, you know, Allesium Hyper EVM L2 thing that actually allows people to do speculative onchain things, right? Like that's the whole point of of crypto for the most part is, you know, speculating trading activity is the vast majority of it. Um, and so having a Hyper EVM that can, you know, that can, you know, integrate with Hyperor's liquidity in a bunch of ways, I think has a ton of unlocks. So like I I uh seems to me that the that there's a decent amount of upside left. I mean,

it's it's clearly not gonna, you know, 10 or 15x like it has over the last 18 months or 20x, but um for a major, I think the upside is or like a pseudo major. I guess the upside is still pretty compelling over time. >> I mean, Multicoin's target was like their their base case is what 360 2028. >> Uh yeah, something like that. >> So, like I mean, they did some level of analysis there. Not to say that they're right but >> yeah, I think it's just like, you know, it's just like the B&B trade again from 2018 to 2023 or whatever. Like just I don't think Yeah, it's kind of the way I look at it.

>> Do you think Hyperlid will fully expand into like centralized services too, like go the opposite Robin Hood way? >> Well, are they partnering with Kraken on that front? So, I think they'll probably >> Yeah. >> use a bend. >> Yeah. I mean, that's for that's for the front end for like the US trading, right? But I mean like do you think they would actually try and become like a full-on regulated like US institution and like >> I don't it doesn't seem like that's like their like ethos or like their like their plan. Like it seems like they're very okay with just being kind of like that neutral liquidity layer for everything and then just letting people build [ __ ] on top of it. Uh but I don't know maybe maybe HPC like

the hyperlquid policy center has something like around that. Maybe they're they'll do something with like spin off like a an entity like a more centralized entity to to do things. I don't know. Uh I have no idea. I haven't seen anything. So like I haven't even thought about that to be honest. >> Z you mentioned crypto's a minority part of your liquid PA, right? And but now obviously with runners like Dcash and Hype and Lit that's become a a larger let's say minority.

Are you how are you feeling about that? Like are you comfortable here with that amount of exposure still to crypto or are you looking to rotate some of those gains back into more the uh the stock side? And if so are there any new names you've been adding to? or is it Neoclouds and some of the basic AI inframes you've been holding for a while? >> Yeah, I mean Zcash has become my biggest like single position by across quite a lot >> across everything just because I hold way more stocks than I do crypto. Like I hold four crypto coins basically.

>> Um and it's probably like 35% or so of my liquid, maybe closer to 40 at this point. Um and so yeah, I think I'm going to derisk some. I'm trying to run this stuff more programmatically. Uh just have like target allocations for things and then sort of um when it diverges by like 5% or whatever above that just to like rebalance um just and that's purely I do think it's better to just make decisions ad hoc if you if you have the mental space for it. But that's what I've done my whole life and it's just become very tiring like to just have to manage like stocks and and liquids and then do your day job like investing and so just decided to make it more programmatic. Um and so I will be like

rebalancing a bit. Um I've already sold a bit of Zcash and and Hype today which are like my biggest positions and then yeah just by virtue of the how much they ran and yeah and try and keep the crypto to like 30 35%. I think my my my target is 30. I'm curious are you guys all in crypto or what's your >> I don't know >> probably like 5050. So it was it was it was below 5050 before the runup, right?

>> But I don't trade, you know, I just >> said this a million times. I just buy ETFs, right? So like >> yeah, >> but I definitely that's how I view the flow though. That's how I view the flow though. Like the thing with crypto is that like you said it how it's become such a big portion now and it was smaller like you don't need to it's prudent to keep smaller amounts of money in crypto because then when the opportunities come like the upside is so much that you just don't need to start with so much right um and then constantly buying like >> you know there can be things that I'm bullish on in crypto but I'm not naive to to like it always comes down a lot, right? Um and versus like it's like if

I'm holding some coin that went up like 10x, it's it's like I'd rather just sell pay the t tax and put it into like spy cuz like the worst case scenario for for the stock market is like 20%, 50% if it's like really [ __ ] bad, but still like you can have a crypto coin go down 80% in like a week, right? So, um >> yeah, >> it's just like yeah, I do do somewhat. Yeah, like I do do somewhat systematic like you too, I guess, where um whenever I feel like truly euphoric, it's more of just like a gut feel thing.

It's kind of like okay, move stuff into like safer things that I don't like I genuinely don't >> Oh, sorry. I hold Bitcoin as well, obviously. Uh yeah. Yeah, I missed. Yeah, I I think that's a good way to do it. I I I back tested it and I definitely would have done better doing this than whatever the [ __ ] I was doing. Um and it's not even Yeah, it's just like it individually just forces discipline. uh as long as you're not Yeah. It's just the I guess the tough thing is for me I've always had a hard time with with rules generally like across life but also in investing because all the best things that ever happened to me were

like breaking the rules somehow like um including in investment, right? Like the obviously some of the the positions in the fund that brought us all here like we we held them to to very irresponsible levels. Um, and and so it it's hard to then adopt like a rule-based mindset, but I just think at a certain like right now where I am in in in life and stuff, the the the draw downs like and and managing a lot of positions just takes a lot out of me that then prevents me from doing my job as well, I guess, which isn't actually like liquid trading. So, that's kind of how I've how I've ended up with this more um cucked like uh approach to to my liquid book. Let's see

how it goes. >> I mean, I think it's a good way to do it like trading like managing a liquid book especially like as you >> grow it over years and years and years and it compounds, right? Like becomes super super difficult, super timeconuming and it's effectively like a full-time job, right? uh >> 100%. >> And so like unless you're willing to dedicate like that time to managing it properly in a discretionary way from top to bottom like >> it is better for you to just come up with just guard rails just some small guard rails and just when it happens just do it. Uh and I think I mean I've always had problems with selling uh always have had problems selling

things and selling is like a muscle. You have to you have to work it out and and figure it out and like it it's hard to sell your first big winner because you're like, "Oh [ __ ] like what if this keeps going, right? Like I'm gonna be a billionaire. I'm gonna be a millionaire." If you annual annualize this trade return, I'm [ __ ] Warren Buffett, right? But selling is hard and the more you do it, the less hard it gets. And selling is super super important. The only people who last from cycle to cycle to cycle are people who sell. Yeah, I was going to say on that topic like 100% agree with you. When you're in something that's doing really well, you like don't want to sell it, but then you sell and it feels kind of good right?

>> It's a it's a >> like [clears throat] oh this is like this is dollar this is USD. And then you're like maybe I should sell a little more right? >> And because you start to just think about it more like, okay, this is actually like real money now instead of this UPNL that's sitting on a screen, right? And I do think it's I mean that um Agent Chud messy guy, he had like a whole video about this like a couple years ago about like get addicted to selling or something. Um and you should and you shouldn't be you shouldn't feel like bad about selling stuff too. >> No, everybody like try like on CT it's like people are like oh you have to you have to retire your bloodline in one site. Like no you don't. Like >> the way I look Yeah. And the way too

about like managing this stuff, the way I look at the way I look at it and the reason why I'm like such a passive investing stand is that like when the way I look at it is when you're like passively investing, you're just letting other people work for you, right? Like other labor and other people are working for you, you're doing literally [ __ ] nothing, right? You're just putting your money there. when you start like managing actively and like trading, you're now consuming your own labor and you're no longer like on the backs of other people's labor. And I like I I manage my crypto because I have to like you cannot passively manage crypto and so I have to like do that. Um but if I were to start like actively

managing my stocks, it would just honestly be like just like way too overwhelming and I think I would underperform. Like I do not think I would outperform. >> I think it's more about where you have an edge honestly though. It's just like you just don't have an edge in stocks. Like that's what it is. It's not I don't think it's like it's >> and and I think you it feels more daunting if you don't have an edge because you're just kind of lost constantly. Um I think that the other issue with selling is part of it is like always wanting to max win. And so it's like I sold some it's like all right well then I need to sell everything because this needs to be the top and I need to max win.

which actually is probably a a good side effect of that element. Um or rather the better half of the coin versus like I need to max win so I'm going to max hold. Um I think the other element is also just and I don't journal but when I repeat mistakes I'm like this is when journaling would have been good. And I I think an easy rule is just when you buy it, you think of levels that you're going to sell it and just put the order in and just don't remove it. And there's so many times where like I'll remove it and then it'll hit there and then come like and then it'll pass it and like genius then nukes 20%. It's like I

should have just left my level there. And I think there's so many times where you if you just buy and literally lad out your whole position and walk away and just let it happen. um cuz clearly at that point in time you would be happy with those gates and so you're now reassessing your cell levels because you're you know dopamined up with the gains and and thinking it'll just go higher and so I think >> like calculating the P&L Yeah. and or just like all right well now it's a bullish environment because like that that is the copy way you can rationalize it is I sold it I would I would sell it at these levels based on the current environment which is Bitcoin at 70 and then but now Bitcoin's at 80 and it's going to uh 95 so I should hold and you

know maybe you're right um but it's just uh yeah I think for peace of mind it's it's good because like you are most kind of lucid when you're first getting into the position and not as kind of, you know, enamored by what could be. >> Oh, I've I I've done that that like the I mean my rationalization, right? Because I had a bunch of per trades on before the Treasury announcement and obviously when I put those trades on I was like, "Oh, I'm probably just going to take profit up here like at the retest of the highs and then if it breaks out, maybe I'll buy higher." And then the Treasury announcement came out, I was like, "Oh, no." Like raise raise the takerit level like 400%. Right? Like there are certain times where like you

kind of have to, but like majority of the time that you almost always screw yourself. And also like this is like one thing that like I think I don't know who who listens, right? I don't know what the average age of the people who listen to the Hivemind or other crypto, you know, podcasts are, but like if you're like relatively young, right? you know, mid20s in college, younger, and you've had like a heater run on chain over the last several weeks, and you've like legitimately made hundreds of thousands of dollars or more, millions, and you've made like like life-changing money. Like, actually change your life with it.

Like, take it out and do something like useful with it. Don't gamble it all back. >> Um, >> yeah. >> And set yourself up for like 10 years of easy easy compounding. >> Also, be super careful at the end of the year. I always tweet about this >> like especially do not carry tax do the next >> I do think that the don't sell is is is really important when you sell like do not then get back in to like other [ __ ] you know that that's why >> that's why I think the rebalancing aspect is useful you have like uh a long-term bag of like either passive stuff or bitcoin or either ETFs or bitcoin or gold whatever combination of that you you see as your like asset that you want to stack for the long term and

just compound it into that, you know, take take out enough into that. And also like I think one thing it's important like CT sometimes loses the plot like hundreds of thousands of dollars is lifechanging money if you're 100% >> like for for for anyone, you know, and millions of dollars is clearly life-changing money like >> um yeah, just this whole like you need $10 million to retire, 15 or 20 or 25 million, it's like uh yeah, you don't have to make it all this cycle. There will always be opportunities and the the way you are someone the only way to be someone that can actually capitalize on opportunities is to sell especially in crypto because like yeah no one none of the diamond hands have survived like that's the the other than like

Bitcoiners from very early on like all the ones from past cycles are are dead you know um it's it's just like very unforgiving. >> Yeah. [clears throat] I mean, one of the reasons I've talked about how like I've never really held stables. Um, and it's not that like I'm just a total den and I'm always in risk, but it's like I I had like I'd rather take it completely out of the system and put it into other stuff because if I just know 100%, man, I would have lost so much money buying the first 30% dip before everything goes like so much lower, right? Um, and so sometimes it's helpful just to make rules that you literally can't break. And you just need to like you just need to be honest with yourself

and know what your own flaws are and your own like emotional tendencies are because everyone is different. Um, but yeah, and [clears throat] and yeah, man, do the math on like if your portfolio goes down 80% and like what kind of gain you need to get back to there, too. It's like not a fun thing to do, but it like helps put stuff in context. >> I think especially 1010 was like kind of a radicalizing moment for me. Even though like I I was I was sort of lucky with with what happened to me. Just just knowing that if that had happened at different times, I would have been, you know, hurt very badly. And so, yeah, that [ __ ] can happen in crypto. Like,

yeah, don't get carried away. and it out. >> I do think it's it's helpful, at least it's been helpful for me to have a rough number that you can kind of anchor to of like, okay, now it's not saying you've made it or anything like that, but it's more like my core needs are met. I'm able to care my family. Like it's all about personal circumstance, right? and like understanding that and not trying to chase cuz there's always going to be somebody who's out there let's say doing better or landed you know multiple 10 xers or couple hundred xers for example like not trying to chase I think is something that I wasn't great at last cycle and the other thing is just concentration last cycle I played a lot more spray and prey putting chunks into

random things on chain like random experiments and now being a lot more concentrated and having like real core thesis around those things and understanding like when you go through a dip not freaking out or panicking or panic selling which is the worst case scenario because you can ride that volatility because you've got confidence in it. Like for me the concentration aspect has been liberating because it's also just way less exhausting. I think to's earlier point of trying to just manage a much larger book. I will say selling definitely feels better when you can sell it in hindsight being 2020 near a top versus selling and then watching something, you know, double again over the next month or two. But like I'm going through this right now. I pulled

up the Zcash chart cuz my levels initially when I when I got into it was a,000 I said I was going to start trimming and didn't and kind of held and then 1,200 was my next level. And now we're overnight kind of breaching through there. So literally going through this Yeah. literally going through this in real time and and I can feel myself like mentally literally raising my targets >> because of all exactly the type of phenomena we're talking about here. >> Yeah, >> I think Zcash is is I don't know. I I I'm trimming some today of this and some other stuff, but I do think Zcash is is like very high. Like it can go it's it's just hard to because it doesn't have cash flows, right? It's the whole it's the whole Bitcoin thing. like there's

nothing to to to anchor. It's less than 2% of BTC's market cap. So, you're like, >> "Yeah, it's just BTC." >> And like look at the 10-year chart, man. Literally broke out of a 10-year. Like, that's the thing. It's crazy. And that's not even a 10 year. That's like five years. My my [snorts] my last question for you guys is obviously it's exciting times when things are running right. Is there anything that you guys are looking for or anything that would give you pause or cause you to maybe either trim more or like sell out of most of your positions that like

is on your radar that you're looking for? like what is the big lurking risk that you guys are thinking through that could maybe derail some of this? Is there anything or is it higher highs make you more would make you more even more skeptical? >> For me, yeah, for me I've never really been good at predicting like when some big nuke is going to come. It's just like the higher we go, the more I feel like I should sell stuff and take risk off.

And uh because it's just like that's just like the way the math works in crypto especially. It's like things that just go up a lot eventually they just have to come down. >> It's Yeah, it's it's tough because like right now like so much of this is like you know policy driven right with like the debasement trade with Besson and everything. Um which is kind of what ignited. It's not what, you know, it's what driving Robin Hood, excuse me, Robin Hood speculation, right? Like nobody buying Robin Hood memes cares about what Scott Bessant says, right? But, uh, it does kind of create the, you know, background

conducive conditions for everything to do well. And so like I kind of just like generally have always thought that like mar like general like bullish market environments and bearish market environments like generally get cut short or are generally ended by like a shift in policy which catches people off guard. Uh I think generally speaking risk asset like we like with our macro models and stuff which we've talked about more on the market matters show like we've been risk like risk on equity like risk on for risk assets all year right. Uh we were you know pretty neutral bearish Bitcoin for a long time because of flows and all that stuff. But

like like I just think the environment has now gotten conducive for crypto to also do well alongside equity. Like I don't really I'm not looking for like a big market ending like catalyst or something over the next you know several several weeks or months. I think like if you get like you know maybe maybe if like you know if inflation and [ __ ] starts like actually persistently printing higher and it kind of like forces Worsh to kind of stop job owning and start actually doing something ahead of time kind of catches people off guard in a way. But like I don't know. I'm I'm kind of like in the mode of like dips are for buying as opposed to you know pumps are for

selling. I think some pumps on certain things are definitely for selling right now especially things that I've run a lot. Uh but like I don't know I'm still relatively bullish through the next three to like through the next like three months at least and into the end of the year. Like I pretty bullish risk. >> Yeah. For me, it's it's policy change or um lack of further accommodation alongside higher BTC, right? So, if if if policy doesn't really become that much more accommodative, but BTC keeps running higher, then I kind of get skeptical because I think you lose you start

because always the incremental buyer, right? And so I think you have less of an argument for there to be one um and more downside potential for you know a shock a higher inflation print and and what the ramifications of that would be. So obviously there's these massive tail events that no one can really predict and so I'm not going to put up any of those. I think the ones I'm looking for are basically cir like just oriented around policy and and yeah, kind of what Jason mentioned with inflation. Um, and I think the higher BTC goes without the expectation of further accommodation, the more kind of

skeptical I get about the the legs that it can have. I do think you need something serious to break it through all-time highs. I don't think you can just kind of dribble up there. And so as you kind of get closer to them, we're still far away. And that's why I think it's it's a lot easier to be bullish here uh in the midterm, but I think as we get closer, you know, Sailor bought quite a lot of BTC. And you can argue we took we moved from, you know, weaker hands, not weaker, but these like if you looked at the selling, it was from whales that have been holding forever, right? So they kind of use them as exit liquidity, which like credit to them.

That was a great trade. And so you could argue that, you know, his appetite to sell is not going to be nearly as high as as theirs as we go higher. But at the same time, I I do think you still need buyers. And and if you don't have a reason, you know, namely debasement, then it gets harder to be bullish to that we're going to really approach alltime highs. >> Yeah. Like the US getting its house in order is kind of like the the bare case for crypto if you like, >> but that's never going to happen. reducing spend reducing spending 30 year >> I don't know I believe I at the beginning of the Trump presidency I briefly believed when there was doge and like Bessant and like this all-star cast

like I briefly did believe I was like holy [ __ ] it's actually going to happen like yeah I have yeah >> there's just too many incentives too much >> entrenchment yeah >> or like >> it's it's political suicide to do the things that are necessary to actually get the house in order cuz the house is in such disarray. >> Yeah. And it's not even like suicide from Trump because I don't think it really matters for him that much, right? It's his last term, but it's more so from everyone else that wants to have a future in politics. >> It's all the Congress people. They're not going to, right? Like >> they're the ones who are there for 50 years >> and they're all asset holders.

>> So, >> good luck, >> you know. Yeah. Good luck pushing against that incentive. >> Yeah. the drawbacks of democracy for sure. >> Um, awesome stuff, guys. Really appreciate [snorts] you. I thought this was a fun conversation. I'm going to give a few really, really quick shout outs in 30 seconds or less. Uh, if anybody hasn't tuned in to Zay's new emerging manager series. It is absolutely fantastic. I think Z, your latest uh interview with Michael Dempsey from Compound was one of my favorites I've had in the last maybe maybe year to date, honestly. ton of great alpha, ton of great insights. So, definitely check that out on the Deli Digital YouTube page. We had our AI researcher, Excel XR, put out a a banger report uh a

couple weeks ago on uh Chinese AI labs and how much basically how much of their advance their advancement development has been distillation versus innovation. I thought some of the takeaways from that were actually very surprising to me. So, I won't spoil it. >> That was an excellent report. Everyone should definitely go check that out and listen to we Tommy uh Seany had him on the Deli podcast to kind of go through it all. Another really good conversation. And then on the research front team just put out new report on metad. Uh this is you know Cetus and the research team. Uh again won't go into too many details. I think people should absolutely read it, but it ties into a lot of what we talked about here today in terms of launchpads and onchain activity and volumes and new kind of in

ways innovative ways to bring tokens to market. >> Yeah, I think on Metadow just before we end it, um they've kind of taken a backseat right now to like the crazy launchpad stuff going on, the more like DGEN stuff, but um they're like, you know, more legitimate type real businesses. You want the tokens to have like real ownership, all this stuff. Um, so yeah, kind of not in the spotlight right now because all the attention is uh in like the the more memecoin type launchpad stuff, but you know, fully expect Sentiment at some point to like change back to them. They've done a really good job. The the main thing for them now is they just need to scale.

Like they're not doing enough. Um, their model has like really good protections. It showed that it's worked, but they don't have like a big breakout app yet. um and they don't have enough just stuff launching. And so that's um basically what are the two main focuses that they'll need to focus on for the next year or two. [clears throat] But yeah, really good report if you want to if you want to go read it all on the portal. >> I can't believe we didn't talk about VVV, by the way, actually. But uh maybe maybe next time we can do that.

>> Yeah, we ran. >> We show the chart. >> I mean, it's up. It's uh >> great narrative. >> I mean, it's a reaction to this OpenAI drama, right? Yeah. >> Like uh OpenAI like math drama. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. I think that was I think that was definitely a catalyst. I don't know. I Yeah. I don't want to drag this on too long but >> yeah, >> Jan being the the uh in-house VV expert and I think I mean I've got I definitely have a bag, so I'd say we're all kind of bulls on it. um more narrative driven or fundamental driven in your view?

>> Uh both. I mean fundamentals will take like fundamentals won't immediately react to something like that and so the idea is people are just waking up to more people are waking up to the need for private inference and so you assume fundamentals will follow. Um but fundamentals on their own have been doing very well. Um, if you look, it's just, you know, continued subscriber growth. Burns have been going up, kind of new all-time highs every month on the burn front. Um, emissions coming down, and yeah, that narrative certainly made it kind of the lightning rod in terms of how to express the private insurance bet.

>> Z, would you say you're still skeptical? >> I haven't followed the latest with the equity stuff. I I do think the this thing is like obviously very bullish like the narrative of private inference like the maybe like TLDDR there's this like 90-year-old math problem uh there was a million dollar bounty on it there was an NYU professor and anthropic employee that were working on it using codeex and a bunch of other tools uh they they like cracked a big chunk of it in mid August and then there was some rumors that started moving and OpenAI basically put like 10,000 agents on it with their newest model and solved this like 90-year-old problem in 88 hours.

Um, and the professor is basically alleging that OpenAI had access to his to to his prompts and to his to his chats and copied his approach. Um, and that they had a call with him and pressured him to like drop the anthropic co-author and they they could like co- publish this thing together. Uh, but OpenAI says they never saw the work and actual like they published this this thing showing that the model tried like a bunch of different approaches. So, um, basically it's unclear whether they actually stole anything. Uh, I think probably they they they didn't. I don't know. But, uh, both sides, it just it's just like a big narrative, right? Like OpenAI admitted they can't rule out that this guy's usage data was used to make their models better because they use anonymized usage data in the training.

Um, so he basically might have been training, you know, his competitor as he's doing his work. And so I think it's people kind of realize this, but this Venice wouldn't stop this, right? It would. So it's not >> Yeah, you can you can run outside models on on private inference. It absolutely would. >> Yeah, but you would still they would still have the same access, right? They're they're running it on the anonymized like >> anonymize doesn't mean anything though. Anonymize just means it's separated from your name. But they still have the data. >> Yeah, but they still have the data here. It would just be coming from Venice. >> No, if you if you didn't you I mean you couldn't use frontier models. You'd use like Chinese models.

>> Yeah, that's what I mean. you but but you but ch Chinese Chinese models can't solve the need in two months will >> it's but at that point the it's like the frontier models will always have solved them first >> right but the idea of private inference doesn't necessarily only apply to trying to solve an incredibly hard math problem there's a million other reasons for why you need it and it brings just brings it to light that they are in fact >> have access that they do in fact have access to the info I think it's less about like if I'm trying to solve the hardest math problems but it just more So, shining a light on the privacy component of it.

>> So, you're long. Are you still long VV? What are you long? Yeah, you didn't you didn't tell us. >> Yeah. No, I'm still long VB. Uh I I like uh I don't have much BTC or ETH. It's it's kind of uh hype Zcash lighter, although I've been trimming hype and lighter a bit. Um and then Arrow and Grass and Nina. >> Not a bad bag at all. Uh good stuff, Jens. Cool, guys. Going to >> do this this next one. I I won't tease it too much, but it might be a time when we we're all together. We're going to try and get one of these in person at some point. [music] So, it'll be it'll be fun.